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10:21 AM PT: FL-Gov: Whoa. Check out the stink lines coming off of Republican Gov. Rick Scott, according to PPP's first poll of the cycle. His approval rating has sunk to a horrific 33-57 (down from 37-48 in November) and is getting pounded in the head-to-heads versus an array of Democrats:

• 39-53 vs. ex-Gov. Charlie Crist

• 40-47 vs. 2010 nominee Alex Sink

• 39-43 vs. Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio

• 42-44 vs. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz

• 41-37 vs. state Sen. Nan Rich

• 41-37 vs. Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer


Ouch! The important thing is not so much how Scott performs against each potential opponent but rather the fact that he can't clear 42 percent against anyone. Even against unknowns like Dyer and Rich (the only declared candidate so far), Scott's distance to 50%+1 is as long as the Florida coastline. The numbers do still matter, though, and Crist has to find them heartening: His transition to the Democratic Party now seems complete, with an impressive 73-17 favorability rating among Democratic primary voters. That's helping to power him to 49-38 favorables overall, and makes him the only would-be candidate whose name recognition matches Scott's.

It's also why, predictably, Crist leads a hypothetical kitchen-sink primary (not including DWS, who's pretty much said she won't run) by a wide margin:

Crist: 52

Sink: 18

Iorio: 13

Dyer: 4

Rich: 1

Undecided: 12

It looks like the nomination is Crist's for the taking, if he wants it. While he certainly has many flaws as a candidate, Scott's flaws are simply so much greater that Crist winds up stacking up very well. But what if Scott isn't the GOP nominee? Well, we can count our lucky stars that 50 percent of Republican primary voters still want him as their standard bearer, while 40 percent prefer "someone else." Scott won't want to get too comfortable, though: He actually trails ex-Rep. Allen West 38-37 in a fantasy head-to-head (but he leads AG Pam Bondi, whose name rec I'm sure is low, 49-25).

No, I'm not expecting West to issue a primary challenge to Scott, and I don't think Tom Jensen does, either. But the point is that if establishment Republicans decide they need to pitch Scott overboard, they could make it happen, even against his will. Of course, Scott is exceedingly wealthy and could make life hell for his party if, under this scenario, he refuses to go quietly. That's wishing for too much, though. Sure, things can change in two years, but right now, I'd be more than happy for us to take on Rick Scott directly.

10:50 AM PT: FL-19: Trey Radel is one of the more anonymous freshman of the 113th Congress: He's a 36-year-old conservative talk radio host who won the GOP primary in the dark-red seat left open by Connie Mack (on account of his disastrous Senate bid) with a mere 30 percent plurality, thanks in part to some mystery super PAC spending on his behalf. But right-wing radio host sitting in right-wing district... that's a recipe for crazy, right? Yep, it sure is: Radel, just weeks into his term, is already saying that impeaching Obama "should be on the table." He joins maniac Texas Rep. Steve Stockman, who made similar remarks on Monday, in the impeacher caucus. Please, by all means, keep up the chatter!

11:32 AM PT (David Jarman): FL-18: Things we now know that Allen West won't be doing in 2014: running a rematch against Patrick Murphy, the Dem freshman who beat him in November. (West sent out a statement confirming that, on Wednesday.) Things that he hasn't ruled out doing: running for a different, redder House district in Florida if one comes open, running for Governor in a primary against Rick Scott... or far more likely, cashing in on his two years of notoriety by joining the right-wing talking-head brigade, something he says he's already taken the first step towards with a new Internet TV program through PJ Media.

So is that good news or bad for Murphy? On the one hand, whoever opposes him will have much less money than West, but on the other hand, they'll also have more discipline and a better reputation. State Sen. Joe Negron is one name that immediately comes to mind (he's the guy who almost succeeded Mark Foley in 2006, and probably would have had he not been penalized by having to run as Mark Foley on the ballot).

11:54 AM PT (David Jarman): SC-01: There have been breathless updates from the right-o-sphere on almost daily basis for the last week that Mark Sanford's entry into the special election race for the vacant 1st was imminent. So, the fact that he made an official announcement on Wednesday morning was certainly not a surprise. Now, the eternal question resurfaces: is it better to have bad publicity... or to have no publicity, the problem facing the other little-known state legislators considering the race? Whether he wins may boil down to how many other candidates get into the Republican primary race and split the non-Sanford votes, but then, South Carolina is a runoff state, so he could still wind up losing if he gets forced into a second round against just one not-Sanford who gets social-conservative backing.

Actually, here's one more potential GOP candidate surfacing who's in a similar "bad-publicity > no-publicity" boat: Thomas Ravenel. (RCP's article seems to treat him as a candidate, though he doesn't seem to have progressed beyond the "considering" stage.) On the one hand, Ravenel has a last name that's a dominant one in Low Country politics, and he served briefly as state Treasurer. On the other hand, he had to resign that job after getting indicted on federal cocaine distribution charges, for which he later pled guilty.

12:13 PM PT (David Jarman): NRCC: The NRCC put out a list of its seven top targets for 2014 on Wednesday, and I've gotta wonder if they're getting a little lazy, as it's basically a list of the seven Democrats with the reddest congressional districts based on 2012 presidential numbers: Ron Barber, John Barrow, Ann Kirkpatrick, Jim Matheson, Mike McIntyre, Collin Peterson, and Nick Rahall. (I count only two other Dems in districts that Mitt Romney narrowly won, and those are freshmen Patrick Murphy and Pete Gallego.) Of course, given the ever-steeper decline in ticket-splitting, and the increased segmentation of the nation into top-to-bottom blue and red districts, that may be all they need to do. The only name that surprises me is Peterson, who, despite a 44/54 district, has had no trouble with re-election, even in 2010. Of course, that's had much to do with the quality of his challengers, so maybe the NRCC has someone better in mind who might step up this time.

1:43 PM PT (David Jarman): A subsequent interview with Allen West makes it clear that he isn't running for anything at all. As for the idea of running in a primary against Rick Scott, he says "That's one of the most asinine things I've ever heard." Instead, he says he has "bigger [i.e. more lucrative] fish to fry."

2:01 PM PT: NYC Mayor: As expected, former MTA chief Joe Lhota, who just quit his job in anticipation of a mayoral run under the Republican banner, is getting absolutely creamed in Quinnipiac's new poll:

• 17-62 vs. City Council Speaker Christine Quinn

• 17-57 vs. Public Advocate Bill De Blasio

• 19-55 vs. 2009 nominee Bill Thompson


Lhota is, however, leading a hypothetical GOP primary with 23 percent, versus 9 percent for grocery store magnate John Catsimatidis (who may not run) and diddly for some other weaklings; more than half of registered Republicans are undecided. There's also little motion in the Dem primary compared to two months ago, with Quinn far ahead at 35. DeBlasio, Thompson, and Comptroller John Liu are all bunched between 9 and 11 percent. (Oddly, Quinnipiac insists on referring to him as "William Thompson," which might be artificially depressing his numbers since he's strictly known as "Bill." It'd be like asking about William Clinton's favorables.)

Incidentally, I dug up Quinnipiac's first-ever poll on Mike Bloomberg from 2001, and the numbers Bloombo faced back then (in May) are amusingly similar to what Lhota's seeing now:

• City Council Speaker Peter Vallone over Bloomberg 58 - 19 percent, with 19 percent undecided;

• Public Advocate Mark Green over Bloomberg 62 - 19 percent, with 16 percent undecided;

• City Comptroller Alan Hevesi over Bloomberg 57 - 20 percent, with 19 percent undecided;

• Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer over Bloomberg 52 - 24 percent, with 19 percent undecided.

Of course, there are a few wee differences between then and now. The 9/11 attacks took place just two months before the election and elevated Rudy Giuliani (whose public image had suffered badly over the prior two years) to a status that is probably unparalleled in American politics, at least for a local official. Rudy's late endorsement, combined with Bloomberg's immense fortune and Mark Green's horrid political skills, allowed Bloomberg to eke out a remarkable 49-47 victory. Suffice it to say, this remarkable confluence of events will not be replicated for Lhota.

2:11 PM PT: ME-Gov: Former Gov. John Baldacci confirms the scuttlebutt: He says he's "thinking about" a run for governor in 2014, against Republican Gov. Paul LePage. Baldacci served two terms before leaving office in 2011 and is now affiliated with the wankerish "Fix the Debt" movement (see Paul Krugman's takedown of this bogus group here).

2:18 PM PT: NC-Sen: Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, who was included in PPP's new North Carolina poll this week as a possible Republican challenger to Sen. Kay Hagan, is being cagey about whether he's actually interested in running. Said Berger on Wednesday: "There have been some folks who have approached me about that, but I'm focused on what we're doing in the General Assembly at this time. I am not running for any other office at this time." Sounds like a classic dodge to me.

2:50 PM PT: P.S. Man, what a jagoff:

Facing a highly critical group of black legislators, Gov. Rick Scott largely defended his record Tuesday but distanced himself from a controversial election law that led to fewer early-voting days and long lines.

Scott agreed with black lawmakers that the 2011 election law contributed to the chaos at the polls in November, including long lines all over the state and up to seven-hour waits in Miami-Dade. But Scott, who is seeking re-election in 2014, said it was largely a decision of the Legislature.

"It was not my bill," Scott said. "We've got to make changes, I agree. ... The Legislature passed it. I didn't have anything to do with passing it."

Jesus. You signed it, schmuckface, and you defended it in court!

2:57 PM PT: NC-Gov: PPP's first batch of North Carolina miscellany in the new year is pretty unremarkable. Newly elected Republican Gov. Pat McCrory starts out with a 45-19 job approval rating, though we'll see where that heads, since his buddies in the GOP-controlled legislature are at a pitiful 16-50.

3:10 PM PT: MA-Gov: State Sen. Dan Wolf's name has come up as a possible gubernatorial contender before, but now we're hearing from the horse's mouth. Wolf says he is "absolutely thinking about" a run for governor, joining a sizable group of Democrats who say they're potentially interested in the job. Wolf is the founder of a regional airline, Cape Air, which now employs over 1,000 people and has $100 million in annual revenues, so I'm suspecting he has some personal wealth. He also sounds like a bona fide progressive: Check out this op-ed he wrote in support of Elizabeth Warren's Senate campaign, calling her "the real pro-business candidate" and saying of himself: "I didn't 'build' Cape Air alone — many of us built it together." Really good stuff.

3:19 PM PT: MN-Gov: Toss another name on the pile of Republicans considering a run against Dem Gov. Mark Dayton: state Sen. Julie Rosen, who says she's "looking into" a gubernatorial bid. Her name came up last year as a potential candidate against Dem Rep. Tim Walz in MN-01, but she did not make the plunge.

3:29 PM PT: TX-Gov: New semi-annual fundraising reports are in, and Republican AG Greg Abbott continues to rake in huge dough. In the last six months of 2012, he took in $4.1 million, giving him an eye-popping $18 million cash-on-hand. The man everyone is sure Abbott would like to replace, Gov. Rick Perry, raised pretty well himself, pulling in $3.6 million, but he only has about $6 million in the bank. What I'm curious about is which moneyed interests think there's cheddar they can get out of Abbott that they can't squeeze out of Perry.

3:54 PM PT: WV-Sen: If you're looking for a more in-depth roundup of possible Democratic replacements for retiring Sen. Jay Rockefeller, Rothenberg's Nathan Gonzales has you covered. He doesn't cite any new names but offers a detailed rundown of each of the key figures who are considering bids. Gonzales also takes a look at potential GOP challengers to Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, the lone declared Republican so far, though he comes away skeptical that anyone will jump. (Businessman Bill Maloney "doesn't appear to be initially enthusiastic" after two straight unsuccessful gubernatorial runs.)

And speaking of which, probably the top hope of the Club for Growth, 1st District Rep. David McKinley, told the National Journal's Amy Harder on Tuesday that he "plans to support" Capito, in Harder's words. That means that wingers unsatisfied with the "moderate" Capito are going to have to dig very deep to find a potential standard-bearer. However, Maloney came from out of nowhere to upset establishment choice Betty Ireland in the 2011 special primary for governor (which, as is typically the case in West Virginia, featured very low turnout), so I wouldn't close the books on this one just yet.

Finally, there's a new interview with Dem Rep. Nick Rahall in which he confirms he's "looking at" a Senate run but sounds oddly unenthusiastic. Says Rahall:

You have to have a fire in your belly—you have to have that fire in your belly to take on a statewide race. That's something that perhaps I have lacked in my last couple campaigns in southern West Virginia, but I really feel—I really feel—if, I embark upon this path, that fire will be in my belly.
I find that to be a strange remark. Proverbial "fire in the belly" is like being hungry: You can't make yourself feel hunger—either you are or you aren't. Rahall can spend the next six months on a quest to find that fire, but if it's not there right now, I don't see how it ever will be.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 06:00:09 AM PST

  •  isn't the Day of Silence in like (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, JBraden, betelgeux, geoneb

    April or something?

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 06:27:06 AM PST

  •  By a show of hands (4+ / 0-)

    Who thinks that Brian Schweitzer would be the perfect fit to replace Salazar?

  •  Hassert rule violations (15+ / 0-)

    Is the Tea Party making themselves less relevant by forcing Boehner rely on Democrats to get even the most basic pieces of governance passed?

    This is where the 8 seats we gained last year helps, it's now even harder for Boehner to round up enough the crazies in his caucus to get stuff done without Democratic support. Of course, as long as Boehner is passing stuff most of his caucus opposes, he's in a precarious position, but it's still fascinating to watch.

  •  What about Herseth-Sandlin for Interior... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marcus Graly

    Then if Johnson is struggling in polling in a year's time she can jump into that race with a bigger profile.  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 08:38:49 AM PST

  •  Two potential Interior secretary nominees that (5+ / 0-)

    havent been mentioned yet. Christine Gregoire. It seems like she is getting some position in the admin, either head of the EPA or Interior.

    The other is John Berry, the head of WH Office of Personnel Management. He previously worked at the Interior department and was confirmed easily to OPM four years ago, so he has already been vetted. If Berry is selected, he'd be the first openly gay cabinet secretary.

    •  I think Gregoire would be a good choice (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, MichaelNY

      for either position. She's from Washington state, which is a  environmental friendly place. She pretty much done with politics, and don't see her serving in any other statewide position like senate for example. Murray and Cantwell ain't going anywhere, any time soon.

      So she should get a look. I think Secretary is a better title, so I would like a see her at Interior.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 09:29:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Berry spoke at my commencement last year (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

      He gave a really good speech. He's openly gay, BTW.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:40:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd prefer to see (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Gregoire at Interior rather than EPA.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:08:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why? n/t (0+ / 0-)

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:09:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  DoI vs. EPA (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32

          Interior is a primarily managerial position. I like Gregoire as a bureaucratic manager; I don't like Gregoire as an environmental advocate, since, like many east coast Democrats she's too cozy with business interests. Albeit she has the strongest connections with the tech sector, which doesn't have much overlap with Interior, but I still don't like it. EPA Administrator is a more ceremonial post, and the EPA has a more centralized environmental focus, so I'd rather see someone with a background in, well, environmental protection. An advocate.

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:14:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  ahem, West Coast (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            and that doesn't apply down the West Coast, it is particular to Washington state for the most part.  Dems in most parts of OR are not nearly so cozy with business.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:54:31 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  What blemishes are there (0+ / 0-)

            on her environmental record?

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:10:40 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Her environmental record isn't particularly bad (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              It's just unexceptional. EPA Administrator is one of the weakest cabinet level positions (right behind Commerce) and is a post that's best used as a soapbox. Gregoire has no background in environmental causes and she's never led on environmental issues before, so why would anyone prefer to see her in a mostly ceremonial post best used as a soapbox? Of course it's true there aren't a lot of good reasons not to give her the post, but there's also not a lot of good reasons to give her the post, particularly given she has virtually no background in the associated functions of the EPA.

              I expect that if she was EPA Administrator, she'd be an acceptable but unremarkable Administrator. I'd rather see that post go to someone with a background in environmental causes who will be able to effectively use the post as a soapbox, even if it has been deprived of much real power recently.

              In contrast, Interior is the department of the miscellaneous. It has about two functions: 1). managing the national parks, and 2). doing all the annoying little thing the other departments don't want to do. The department seems perfectly suited to an effective government functionary, but not one who has a particularly specialized or exceptional background. That's Gregoire.

              (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

              by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 11:06:51 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Has anyone tried mapping out on DRA (0+ / 0-)

    what a fair/independently drawn set of legislative maps for Michigan, Ohio, and Florida would look like?  In particular would we have any shot at the Michigan or Ohio senates?

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 09:44:25 AM PST

    •  Not sure about the Michigan Senate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf

      But iwe'd certainly pick up seats (right now, we have ZERO senate seats in Kent County), and the House would be probably 50/50ish.

      •  It's hard to see Dems taking the MI-Sen (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf

        even with a fair map. Democratic votes are pretty concentrated in Wayne, Genesee, Washtenaw, and Ingham Counties, so it's pretty easy for any map to pack Democrats to the benefit of Republicans. Additionally, seats that may be nominally Democratic leaning in Oakland, Macomb, and Kent Counties still often elect Republicans at the local level, making it difficult to build a D majority in anything but a wave year.

        •  The main problem is that the MI-St. Sen. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf, James Allen, MetroGnome

          is too small; only 38 seats. It needs to increase in size.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:05:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Or just be eliminated... n/t (5+ / 0-)

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:12:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  It is doable in the Michigan Senate (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoosierD42

            if a few key things are done, we could have a fairly safe Senate control:
            1. A Muskegeon based district
            2. A downtown Grand Rapids district
            3. A Kalamazoo-Battle Creek district
            4. Two districts out of Flint and Lansing (one an East Lansing-Jackson seat, the other Lansing and Eaton and Clinton Counties)
            5. Two north/south seats in the southern half of Macomb County (one from 8-mile to Mt. Clemons, the other a Warren/Sterling Heights seat)
            6. East-west oriented districts in Wayne County (not bacon districts though), so that no GOPers represent Wayne County)
            7. A Bay City-Saginaw district
            8. Three seats in the SE quarter of Oakland County
            9. A Monroe County-Yipsilanti district
            10.Win back the traditional Dem UP district
            This gets us up to 23 seats

            "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

            by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:24:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  There's already a Muskegon Seat (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca

              it's fairly compact, just Muskegon, Oceana, and Newaygo Counties, and it should be one of Democrats' top targets in 2014. Additionally, "downtown" Grand Rapids is way to small for one Senate seat; as it stands, Grand Rapids is entirely contained within the 29th District. If the 29th were altered to include GR suburbs like Kentwood and Wyoming, Democrats would stand a better chance of picking it up, but it wouldn't be assured. Either way, the map you are describing is more of a Democratic gerrymander than a fair map.

              •  I did not include Newaygo County (0+ / 0-)

                and in its place added Lake, Mason and Mastinee Counties. Came out to 60/38 Obama, 50/50 in the 2010 numbers. My Grand Rapid area seat is 63/35 Obama and 51/49 GOP in the 2010 numbers. I would say my map is more of a Dem gerrymander hiding in the guise of a fair map. My Lansing area would not likely be in a commission map though.

                "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:47:50 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  You mind posting the map? (0+ / 0-)

                  I'm curious.

                  Also, DRA doesn't have 2010 numbers for Michigan. The Dem and Rep averages are an average of Gov, SoS, and AG for 2006, although it comes out to a 5 point Republican statewide win (which is a really pessimistic scenario) since Republicans won SoS and AG big.

                  •  Sorry about that (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    BeloitDem

                    I meant to put 2006, but I had 2010 in my head. Here is SE Michigan. I probably violated sections of the Michigan Constitution, but here it is for SE Michigan:
                    Photobucket

                    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                    by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:44:02 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  And a better Detroit Metro (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    BeloitDem

                    Photobucket

                    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                    by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:47:07 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  The map is good for a D gerrymander (0+ / 0-)

                      But a commission wouldn't split Ann Arbor, nor Ingham County. Michigan legislative maps almost always follow county and municipality lines, and I think that there may be a statute preventing excessive county or city splits, which would make the South-East Michigan portion of your map pretty questionable. However, it is still possible to make a decent D-gerrymander without excessively splitting municipalities.

                      •  The real area for gains under a commission (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MenhentheDem

                        is in Oakland and Macomb Counties. A fair map could net us 3 seats.

                        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                        by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 06:38:40 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

          •  This (0+ / 0-)

            It's always been my view that the Senate is way too small.  I know it's not the smallest in the states, but it's too small for a state with nearly 10 million people.  It's going to be very hard to ever get a workable majority for Dems in the state senate.  Even the last time we had the Senate - in the early 80's - I think we had a two-seat edge, or something.

    •  I think the answer would be yes for Ohio-but hard (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf

      Starting from 10 seats, needing to get to 17.

      We currently hold only one of the 3 Columbus seats (along with the tail from Delaware County that eats up some Democrats). Two seats could be gained here. A fair drawing of the Dayton area would net another. Getting rid of the gerrymandering of Cuyahoga County would gain another. Then linking Portage County with the rest of Summit County gets another. Trading Huron County for Erie and Ottawa Counties would shift District 13 our way. We would then have to win the Canton seat held by the GOP and try to cobble together some counties in SE Ohio to get the 7th seat, or try to unpack the Democratic seat in Cincinnati. Also maybe to try to get enough Democrats together to have another seat around Toledo.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:01:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ohio (0+ / 0-)

      I have a stellar Ohio Dem gerrymander for the House and Senate, but not a fair map.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 05:26:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP FL-Gov Scott at 33/57 disapproval (4+ / 0-)

    loses by 14(!) to Charlie Crist, 7 to Alex Sink and the highest vote share he can get is 42% against DWS.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    I'm no on board the anybody but Crist/Sink train.  Having a real Democrat from Florida would be great for potential future pres/VP candidates and Crist and Sink most certainly are disqualified from that.  That being said, I'd gladly root for either of them over Lex Luthor Rick Scott.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:09:24 AM PST

    •  Additionally (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      geoneb, MichaelNY

      Crist is at 49/38 favorable
      Sink is at 37/22 which is quite surprising
      Pam Iorio is at 24/16, not bad at all for low name rec
      Buddy Dyer is at 13/24 and should be unacceptable
      Even DWS is at 30/36
      And Nan Rich who has no name rec is at 9/16

      Sample is 68/15/11/6 W/B/H/O and 44/38/18 D/R/I, not that party ID is a particularly accurate metric in polling.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:12:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  One last tidbit (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, JBraden

        Scott is only at 49/38 approval among Republicans LOL!

        Crist is at 29/62 among Republicans, 70/16 among Dems

        Sink has a fairly good 23/33 among Republicans, 33/29 among Indies, and 51/9 among Dems.  She might not actually be that bad of a candidate, but I'd really love to see us cultivate a future national player from Florida and her 2010 gov campaign was abysmally executed.

        Dyer is negative even among Democrats at 18/22.  Why is this guy so unpopular?

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:16:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Why is Sink disqualified? n/t (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, lordpet8, betelgeux, gabjoh

      One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

      by AUBoy2007 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:14:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Her campaign was run very poorly in 2010 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Maybe she could turn it around, but it takes a lot of finesse to run a national campaign and I just can't see her being successful in doing so.  Don't get me wrong, she could surprise us and end up being a great choice for VP, but with only her 2010 gov campaign to go on, it makes me want someone else like Pam Iorio who as former mayor of Tampa comes from the key swing region in the state.

        We'll just have to see how things play out in the primary I guess, but at this point it looks like Crist is going to be our nominee.  I'd much rather him run against Bill Young and scare him into retirement.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:22:52 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  former guv running for the house? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

          Not going to happen. Very few recent examples of that. Of course we have the possibility of Don't Cry for me Argentina Sanford going back to the house after a guv stint, but he was already in the house before that, and from pretty much the same district.

          Bill Janklow is the only recent guv in the past 20-30 years I can think of who went to the house from the guv mansion. And given SD only has 1 seat in the house, it's not much of a demotion in terms of represenation. Given how many seats FL has, no way does Crist run for the house. He should run for governor...he was a pretty good governor, even as a Republican. And evidence shows after a party switch, one tends to behave more like their newly-found party (Nate did an analysis on this a year or so ago after Arlen Specter switched)

          •  Mike Castle did as well (4+ / 0-)

            The politics of big states and small states are radically different. In small states, there's a lot of clout in being in the House, since you're often the only voice the state has in there. In big states, being in the House is the lowest rung, and it's somewhat common to leave the House to run for statewide posts. Adam Putnam left a top House post to run for Ag Secretary in Florida, for example. And old Dan Lungren left the House in the '90s to be California's AG.

            Which is to say that Crist running for the House is not very likely at all.

          •  Oh course he wouldn't (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Neither would Brian Schweitzer, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't be great candidates.  One can always dream :)

            I do wish Schweitzer would send Baucus packing though, but that's probably very unlikely too.  I just don't see how a small state former governor like Schweitzer gets on the national ticket as anything other than VP and he'll have been out of office for 4 years by 2016.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:44:30 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not impossible to imagine (5+ / 0-)

              1. He adopts an Iowa-first strategy, shakes every hand in the state. His populist, friendly style would fit well there.
              2. If he wins Iowa, he becomes a top-tier candidate. My guess is he bypasses NH (probably is won by Cuomo or O'Malley, or another technocratic type), and works hard in NV and SC. He wins either of those, he's a frontrunner. Both, and it's over.

              Definitely, this gets easier with Cuomo as a foil. But in today's Democratic Party, I think technocrat moderate vs. progressive populist is a battle we can win, and Cuomo will have a black mark with nearly every interest in the Democratic Party.

              •  Very true and if anyone is going to make history (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, GoUBears

                and become the first person from a 1 CD state to become president, my money would absolutely be on Schweitzer.

                I would love to see him stay involved in politics as he's the embodiment of what we should want in a populist Democrat (along with Ted Strickland as a close second).  His veto "branding" was all sorts of awesome.

                NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:23:52 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  I dream the same dream (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Crist would force Young into retirement for sure. History aside, he's also extremely ambitious and wouldn't do it...some unambitious governor might....like the govs in Alabama or Mississippi. Not saying that'll happen either...but they're more likely than Crist. On electability grounds, I am for Crist. But he is blatantly ambitious to a fault

          •  that's still better than Julian Carroll (4+ / 0-)

            the former governor of Kentucky who now serves in the state senate.

            "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

            by lordpet8 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:51:46 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  amazing how time passes (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            but Specter switched nearly four years ago.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:43:07 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  When I was in undergrad back in 2004, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY

            one of my political science classes looked at the evidence around behavior of party switchers.  It was the same things that Nate said years later, party switchers move to the middle of their party.

            One of the theories is that switching parties is a big deal - it's more than just a label.  So when you do it, you do it whole-heartedly.

            One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

            by AUBoy2007 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:05:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Ah, I misread your first comment. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf

          I skipped over the Pres/VP spot part, and thought you were saying she wasn't a real Dem (a la Crist).

          But I disagree.  That's not an overriding goal, and is she can win in 2014, I think she'd be a fine governor.  I qouldn't not support someoen simply because they wouldn't be a good candidate for higher office.

          One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

          by AUBoy2007 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:36:46 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Sink husband died last month (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        so I don't even kno if she wants to run again. But I'm not on the Charlie Crist bandwagon. And I hope he doesn't run. If Him nor Sink runs, then my favorite is Iorio, who've I has always took a liking to.

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:37:16 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I like her too. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Has she said anything about running or not running?

          (As a fellow AU grad, I'd love to see her in the top spot.)

          One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

          by AUBoy2007 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:04:06 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  She hasn't said anything about running but.. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden, MichaelNY

            her comments on trying to reform elections in Florida and her book tour you'll think those are the sign of somebody whose interested in running. If Crist run he should have her as her Lieutenant.

            Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

            by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:18:45 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  What makes Sink not a "real Democrat"? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Zack from the SFV

      I think she's certainly real; I just didn't like her stinking up her last race.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:12:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nothing, I should have clarified that "real" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        referred to Crist, not Sink.  With Sink I wanted to highlight her poor 2010 campaign and how that would prevent us from building up a future national ticket player were she to win (unlike say, Pam Iorio) though it's well within reason that Sink's campaign skills improve.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:18:48 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  FL-Gov: PPP has Crist leading 53-39 over Scott! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betelgeux, JBraden, MichaelNY, madmojo

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
    Sink ahead 47-40, Pam Iorio ahead 43-39, Wasserman-Schultz ahead 44-42.  He only leads St. Sen. Nan Rich and Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, but not by much.  Also, they're doing a poll on where to poll next.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:10:15 AM PST

  •  FL-GOV: With those numbers, I think Scott (5+ / 0-)

    faces a primary challenge.

    Only 50% of Republicans want him as the nominee. Scott has a lot of money, but beyond that, a primary challenger could be in good shape to win.

    Then again, I thought Cuccinnelli would face a primary challenge in VA too.

    If you are a Dem, I think it's hard to dismiss those Crist numbers. You have to crawl before you can walk, and perhaps Crist on the ticket and as a governor can improve a very weak state Dem party and eventually help get  a "real" Dem elected as governor. Obviously, his Lt. Gov nominee would have to be a long time Dem, and hopefully, Dems would field a good ticket that could be swept in if Crist wins.

  •  If Crist runs in Florida (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, sawolf

    then I hope he picks Iorio as his Lieutenant #HeyHeyTampaBay

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:54:12 AM PST

    •  He probably won't (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

      He's already from St. Petersburg, he'll want a geographic balance.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:08:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Iorio has strong qualities to be Lt.Gov (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        as long as he pick a woman thats find with me. Maybe somebody from the legislature. But I would much prefer Iorio. I could care less if they're from the same region or not.

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:42:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well Crist isn't likely to consult you. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

          "Geographic balance", for good or ill, is a truism in politics, one that has persisted in the states even as it's abating nationally.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:56:44 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think that matters very little today (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BKGyptian89, JBraden, GoUBears, MichaelNY

            Geographic balance is fading as a consideration as voters become less provincial and shrug off local geography.  A mobile population that moves frequently doesn't care where people are from.

            I wouldn't assume Crist cares where his running mate comes from, other things would matter more.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:34:08 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I agree with you that it doesnt matter practically (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              But Crist would be unlikely to pick someone else from the I-9 corridor. Geographic balance still exists, especially in the states.

              Cuomo picked Buffalo Mayor Robert Duffy
              Pence (from the Indy area) picked Ellspermann, from southern Indiana
              Pat Quinn (Chicago) picked Simon (Carbondale)

              And that's just three examples off the top of my head.

              24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

              by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:08:01 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  NRCC names their targets (6+ / 0-)

    Source

    They see Ron Barber, Ann Kirkpatrick, John Barrow, Jim Matheson, Mike McIntyre, Collin Peterson, and Nick Rahall as their best targets.  Interestingly, not many freshmen on that list.  In fact, since Barber and Kirkpatrick have served in Congress before last week, none of them are true freshmen.  They left members like Patrick Murphy, Joe Garcia, Sean Patrick Maloney, and all the new California freshmen off the list, but are more optimistic about finally dislodging (or provoking a retirement) of Rahall, Peterson, and McIntyre.

    •  I could see Peterson retiring. (5+ / 0-)

      Fortunately, local Democrats (the F in DFL in particular) can still win the district so it woulnd't be an automatic pickup.

      22, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

      by JonathanMN on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:08:27 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Peterson is a bit of a surprise (6+ / 0-)

      He has barely had much credible R opposition.

      "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

      by lordpet8 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:24:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think this whole press release (10+ / 0-)

      is an attempt to push retirements. Hence no freshmen.

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:45:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I hope none take the bait. (8+ / 0-)

        Petersen is teflon.

        I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

        by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:07:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Smart comment. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, wwmiv, MichaelNY

        nm

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:32:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I am not sure. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, skibum59, R30A

        Barber and Kirkpatrick are kind of quasi freshmen that will not retire after this term. McIntyre and Matheson had the narrowest escape this round. If they could not be knocked over this time with strong challengers, why won't they run and expect to win again, barring a midsize national wave against Ds. Peterson is entrenched. Barrow is kind of. The real possibility of retirement or running for higher office is Mr. Rahall.

        BTW, my take on the failure of Rs to knock off Barrow and McIntyre, is that they nominated candidates from the wrong places, namely the solidly Republican territories newly added to the districts. People there being not familiar with the blue dog representatives, already tended to vote by their party inclination. i.e. the margin Rs can get from there is pretty much the same no matter who the R candidate is. Also the R office holders there being elected and reelected so easily for so long that they overestimated their own appeals. I will repeat myself, the margins from these kinda grounds tend to be about the same no matter who the R nominees are. The existing ticket splitting areas are where the elections were decided, and people there knew and kinda liked their blue dog reps. The Rs actually might have a chance were the locally connected office holders from the ticket splitting area who could siphon off enough votes there,  adding to the large margin from the new turf, to win. Had they had someone from the Wilmington NC suburb, McIntyre is probably a goner. Well, not so easy the next round, though.

        •  I'm still worried about (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, R30A

          Matheson (yes I know he's one hell of a campaigner) and McIntyre.

          I'm worried manly because what happened to Chandler. He had a close call in 2010 and most of us thought he'd be fine as he weathered out the worst storm. But he still had a R leaning district to defend this cycle and went down.

          "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

          by lordpet8 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 06:14:21 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think part of Chandler's defeat (4+ / 0-)

            was self-inflicted.  In redistricting they added some more coal heavy areas to the district of a guy who voted for cap and trade, that and he just ran a very lackluster campaign.  Chandler got the margins he needed in the coal-free parts of the district for the most part.  I'm eventually going to get around to taking a more in depth look at his campaign when I have the time, but that's my hypothesis so far.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 09:44:27 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  This actually isn't the case (0+ / 0-)

              I believe that illinoyedr is going to be out with a diary shortly on this race showing that Chandler would have lost even without the new coal parts.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:21:31 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Quote "I think /part/ of Chandler's defeat" (0+ / 0-)

                and "got the margins he needed... for the most part.  The deciding factor is that he ran a crappy campaign, but if you look at A) his past performances, B) how Conway and Lunsford performed, and C) how our statewide executive candidates performed, the hypothesis that is best supported is that Chandler underperformed significantly in the more coal heavy counties and his support of Cap and Trade cost him dearly.

                Again, I haven't had the time to dig as deeply into the data as I'd like, especially at the precinct level, but I think that, all else equal, had he voted against Cap and Trade, or had he run a better campaign he'd be in the house.  To reiterate, that's my hypothesis. I'm not trying to be condescending, just more clear.  I think there's a good case to be made that either of those same two factors were deciding ones by themselves in Rick Boucher's 2010 defeat.

                NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:46:52 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  But... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  R30A

                  He didn't get the margins he needed. He lost the retained parts of the district, from what I understand (I'm too lazy to go check this for myself). That's by definition him not getting the "margins he needed".

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 12:12:14 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  weird (7+ / 0-)

      I can see McIntyre and Barrow, along with Barber if they can get McSally to run again. I suspect Rahall might actually do better without Obama at the top of the ticket, but it makes sense for them to make more of an effort than they did in 2012.

      The others are shaky. Peterson absolutely owns that district like Kent Conrad owned neighboring ND. Kirkpatrick lost by just 6 in a much redder version of the district in 2010, and unless they have a superstar lined up to run against her, she should win again. Mormon turnout will probably be a lot lower in 2014 than it was for Romney.
      Likewise 2012 was probably their best shot to dislodge Matheson. They fell short despite the mother of all coattail effects.

      I have Murphy as the second most vulnerable Dem after McIntyre, at least if West doesn't run again. I think Gallego might be vulnerable, in a Romney district where the Dem base is likely to have a big dropoff in a midterm. Maloney should be ok in a district Obama won by 4 that isn't especially prone to dropoff, and Garcia might be home free in a district Obama won by 7 that is rapidly turning blue.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:19:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA-HD-95 (9+ / 0-)

    Put up the LONGTORSO signal, Commissioner Nir!:

    Republicans face an uphill challenge in their effort to flip the state House seat of Pa.’s new Auditor General Eugene DePasquale. But they’ve chosen the man who will give it a shot.

    Bryan Tate, 45, is the Vice President of Philanthropy at the York County Community Foundation and former campaign and legislative staffer.

    He lives in the city of York and was the only candidate to pursue his party’s nomination, according to York GOP Chair Bob Wilson.

    Prior to joining YCCF, Tate worked as Chief of Staff to Todd Platts in the state House and the U.S. House, as well as his campaign manager for his first congressional run in 2000....

    In all likelihood he’ll end up facing Democrat Kevin Schreiber, 32. Like Tate, Schreiber was the only candidate to pursue his party’s process for seeking the nomination....

    The 95th district has been in Democratic hands for nearly three decades; the party enjoys a 29 point edge in voter registration (57 percent to 28 percent). Additionally, it’s one of the least-altered districts under the proposed redistricting plan. That said, Republicans tend to perform better in low turnout special elections.

    House Speaker Sam Smith has 10 days to call a special election – most anticipate a date in March – to replace DePasquale. After 3 terms, the Democrat won election to the office of Auditor General.

  •  PA: I jus find this pic amusing (6+ / 0-)

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:25:40 AM PST

  •  Wow, so we owe Murphy extra (12+ / 0-)

    for kicking West out and inadvertently keeping him out.  He thenceforth shall be known as Patrick "Yes, he is that one" Murphy.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:36:44 AM PST

  •  susan bysiewicz (4+ / 0-)

    former SOS and senate candidate Bysiewicz has joined the law firm Pastore Shofi & Dailey, LLC.  While this doesn't mean she's done with politics, it suggests she won't be a 2014 player.

    Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

    by DougTuttle on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:44:08 AM PST

  •  Condolences to Grace Napolitano (17+ / 0-)

    Her daughter Yolanda died on Sunday at 56 after a battle with cancer. I was looking at the roll call for the Sandy votes and wondering why she wasn't there and now I know :(.

    29, M, Swingnut, CA-38 resident. Chairman of the DKE Ginger Left-handed caucus. Huge Angels, Lakers, Bruins, Kings, Galaxy fan. Follow me on Twitter: @Artesialove

    by uclabruin18 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:44:34 AM PST

  •  i hope crist runs (8+ / 0-)

    simply because it would be a great case study to see how the same person governs under different parties.  not a perfect example of course, unless dems sweep the legislature, but still, it will be interesting.

    Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

    by DougTuttle on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:07:34 PM PST

  •  Violators of the Hastert rule (3+ / 0-)

    Taegan Goddard Article

    I really don't think this will harm any of them- most are either really entrenched, or in moderate districts, but who would complain if any lost... Would certainly open opportunities.

    Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

    by R30A on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:09:44 PM PST

  •  Why do so many dislike Crist now? (5+ / 0-)

    I can understand why, but for me, it's so counterintuitive to oppose a guy who beats Rick Scott by 14 and is over 50%.  He's now a full Democrat (ironic, isn't it, considering he was a GOP rising star in early 2009) so no confusion, split votes, etc.  Consider that many of the Dem appointees of the FL Supreme Court hit mandatory retirement after 2014.  Between them and the Crist appointees, the majority of the court is Dem-tilting.  If we lose this election, we get Scott appointees.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:11:05 PM PST

  •  Faced with criticism, Rick Scott admits that (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, MichaelNY

    the voter laws he signed in 2011 made 2012 messy and distances himself from it, saying it was all the legislature's doing: http://www.tampabay.com/...

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:32:23 PM PST

  •  Rand Paul for President 2016? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Is he crazy enough to believe he can actually get elected President? Or is he more like his father who ran just to get his message out?

    He spent the last week in Israel cozying up to neoconservatives.

    link

    He's always reminded me of a goofy, delusional frat-boy who one day read Ayn Rand and decided to major in political science.

  •  D+ to R+ seats (2008 and 2012 results only). (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, sawolf, jncca, BeloitDem

    And the reverse.

    Here are the current CDs where Obama's 2012 two-party percentage rounds to 52% or less, but his 2008 two-party percentage rounded to 53% or more.  Sorted by Obama's drop:

    WI-08    Ribble, Reid    (R)    47.77%    54.41%    -6.63%
    IL-13    Davis, Rodney    (R)    49.85%    55.60%    -5.75%
    WI-07    Duffy, Sean    (R)    48.43%    54.01%    -5.58%
    IL-12    Enyart, William    (D)    50.77%    55.65%    -4.88%
    PA-06    Gerlach, Jim    (R)    48.73%    53.54%    -4.80%
    MI-06    Upton, Fred    (R)    49.29%    54.02%    -4.73%
    MI-08    Rogers, Mike J.    (R)    48.44%    52.85%    -4.41%
    PA-15    Dent, Charlie    (R)    48.53%    52.79%    -4.26%
    NV-03    Heck, Joe    (R)    50.41%    54.54%    -4.13%
    PA-08    Fitzpatrick, Michael    (R)    49.95%    53.79%    -3.84%
    OR-05    Schrader, Kurt    (D)    51.74%    54.53%    -2.78%
    NH-01    Shea-Porter, Carol    (D)    50.81%    53.23%    -2.42%
    IA-03    Latham, Tom    (R)    52.13%    53.09%    -0.96%
    CA-07    Bera, Ami    (D)    52.05%    52.58%    -0.53%
    NY-18    Maloney, Sean    (D)    52.18%    52.53%    -0.34%
    Here are the reverse:
    FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    (R)    53.27%    48.80%    4.47%
    NY-11    Grimm, Michael    (R)    52.17%    48.48%    3.69%
    FL-26    Garcia, Joe    (D)    53.37%    49.80%    3.57%
    CA-21    Valadao, David    (R)    55.66%    53.06%    2.60%
    NY-21    Owens, Bill    (D)    53.10%    52.53%    0.58%
    AZ-09    Sinema, Kyrsten    (D)    52.30%    51.98%    0.33%
    CA-10    Denham, Jeff    (R)    51.84%    51.55%    0.30%
    CA-36    Ruiz, Raul    (D)    51.63%    51.55%    0.08%
    NY-18    Maloney, Sean    (D)    52.18%    52.53%    -0.34%
    CA-07    Bera, Ami    (D)    52.05%    52.58%    -0.53%
    IA-03    Latham, Tom    (R)    52.13%    53.09%    -0.96%
    Obviously, NY-18, CA-07, and IA-03 are really just extremely close to even, so they showed up on both lists because of how I defined things.

    I'm quite curious about what happened with NV-03 (although I'm pretty sure either election was a big improvement over Kerry).

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:46:25 PM PST

    •  Actually, should I have used a larger percentage (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf

      for 2008?

      More precisely, blue to red:

      WI-08    Ribble, Reid    (R)    47.77%    54.41%    -6.63%
      IL-13    Davis, Rodney    (R)    49.85%    55.60%    -5.75%
      WI-07    Duffy, Sean    (R)    48.43%    54.01%    -5.58%
      IL-12    Enyart, William    (D)    50.77%    55.65%    -4.88%
      MI-06    Upton, Fred    (R)    49.29%    54.02%    -4.73%
      NV-03    Heck, Joe    (R)    50.41%    54.54%    -4.13%
      PA-08    Fitzpatrick, Michael    (R)    49.95%    53.79%    -3.84%
      OR-05    Schrader, Kurt    (D)    51.74%    54.53%    -2.78%
      Blue to red:
      FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    (R)    53.27%    48.80%    4.47%
      NY-11    Grimm, Michael    (R)    52.17%    48.48%    3.69%
      FL-26    Garcia, Joe    (D)    53.37%    49.80%    3.57%
      CA-21    Valadao, David    (R)    55.66%    53.06%    2.60%
      NY-21    Owens, Bill    (D)    53.10%    52.53%    0.58%
      AZ-09    Sinema, Kyrsten    (D)    52.30%    51.98%    0.33%
      NY-18    Maloney, Sean    (D)    52.18%    52.53%    -0.34%
      CA-07    Bera, Ami    (D)    52.05%    52.58%    -0.53%
      IA-03    Latham, Tom    (R)    52.13%    53.09%    -0.96%

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:56:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wait, ok. (0+ / 0-)

        Blue to red:

        WI-08    Ribble, Reid    (R)        47.77%    54.41%    -6.63%
        IL-13    Davis, Rodney    (R)        49.85%    55.60%    -5.75%
        WI-07    Duffy, Sean    (R)        48.43%    54.01%    -5.58%
        IL-12    Enyart, William    (D)        50.77%    55.65%    -4.88%
        PA-06    Gerlach, Jim    (R)        48.73%    53.54%    -4.80%
        MI-06    Upton, Fred    (R)        49.29%    54.02%    -4.73%
        MI-08    Rogers, Mike J.    (R)        48.44%    52.85%    -4.41%
        PA-15    Dent, Charlie    (R)        48.53%    52.79%    -4.26%
        NV-03    Heck, Joe    (R)        50.41%    54.54%    -4.13%
        PA-08    Fitzpatrick, Michael    (R)        49.95%    53.79%    -3.84%
        OR-05    Schrader, Kurt    (D)        51.74%    54.53%    -2.78%
        NH-01    Shea-Porter, Carol    (D)        50.81%    53.23%    -2.42%
        Red to blue:
        FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    (R)        53.27%    48.80%    4.47%
        NY-11    Grimm, Michael    (R)        52.17%    48.48%    3.69%
        FL-26    Garcia, Joe    (D)        53.37%    49.80%    3.57%
        NY-21    Owens, Bill    (D)        53.10%    52.53%    0.58%
        AZ-09    Sinema, Kyrsten    (D)        52.30%    51.98%    0.33%
        NY-18    Maloney, Sean    (D)        52.18%    52.53%    -0.34%
        CA-07    Bera, Ami    (D)        52.05%    52.58%    -0.53%
        Sorry.  I blame Google Drive.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:10:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Some of those numbers don't make sense (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt

      MI-08 for instance was R+1 in 2008 and NH-01 was R+0.  Are you sure you used the right Obama number?  It's 53.7% of the two party vote in 2008.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:57:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  WATN: Kucinich is cashing in (11+ / 0-)

    The ex-congressman is joining FOX News as a paid contributor, per multiple reports (including AP) on Twitter.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:52:29 PM PST

  •  Kucinich taking up at FOX News as paid contributor (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, jj32, MichaelNY

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:53:23 PM PST

  •  Bonus: The 20 closest seats (4+ / 0-)

    to the 2008/2012 national numbers (in order)

    IA-03    Latham, Tom    (R)        52.13%    53.09%    -0.96%
    OR-05    Schrader, Kurt    (D)        51.74%    54.53%    -2.78%
    CA-07    Bera, Ami    (D)        52.05%    52.58%    -0.53%
    NY-18    Maloney, Sean    (D)        52.18%    52.53%    -0.34%
    CO-06    Coffman, Mike    (R)        52.60%    54.42%    -1.82%
    NH-01    Shea-Porter, Carol    (D)        50.81%    53.23%    -2.42%
    MN-08    Nolan, Rick    (D)        52.81%    54.41%    -1.60%
    NY-19    Gibson, Chris    (R)        53.16%    54.08%    -0.92%
    AZ-09    Sinema, Kyrsten    (D)        52.30%    51.98%    0.33%
    PA-08    Fitzpatrick, Michael    (R)        49.95%    53.79%    -3.84%
    CA-10    Denham, Jeff    (R)        51.84%    51.55%    0.30%
    NY-21    Owens, Bill    (D)        53.10%    52.53%    0.58%
    WA-08    Reichert, David    (R)        50.82%    52.39%    -1.57%
    CA-36    Ruiz, Raul    (D)        51.63%    51.55%    0.08%
    NV-03    Heck, Joe    (R)        50.41%    54.54%    -4.13%
    MN-01    Walz, Tim    (D)        50.72%    52.10%    -1.39%
    FL-13    Young, Bill    (R)        50.76%    51.92%    -1.16%
    MI-06    Upton, Fred    (R)        49.29%    54.02%    -4.73%
    IL-12    Enyart, William    (D)        50.77%    55.65%    -4.88%
    PA-06    Gerlach, Jim    (R)        48.73%    53.54%    -4.80%
    I don't know what it is about central Iowa that so closely mimics the national mood but it does.  Also great: 10 Democrats, 10 Republicans.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:57:43 PM PST

    •  that is cool (0+ / 0-)

      but those Republican districts are the ones we need to win.  Aside from any true LaTourette's Syndrome in some of them.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:04:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm looking at that list (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        I think MI-06, PA-06, and PA-08 have some pretty obvious LaTourette's Syndrome going on there. FL-13 does too, but that may owe more to Rep. Bill Young being so deeply entrenched than to the district simply being far more Republican at the local level than the presidential toplines would suggest. Ditto WA-08 and IA-03.

        Our candidates in CO-06, NY-19, NV-03, and to a lesser extent CA-10 weren't as great as we might have hoped. Romanoff could probably beat Rep. Coffman in 2014; Erin Bilbray could likely beat Rep. Joe Heck; not sure about our bench in the other two.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:13:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Well let's see (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        looking at how downballot Dems typical do, generic D should underperform (in an open seat maybe) relative to Obama in:
        AZ-09
        CO-06
        FL-13
        MI-06
        NV-03
        NY-18
        NY-18
        NY-21
        PA-06
        PA-08
        WA-08

        At least those are the ones I've crunched the numbers for already.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:17:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Here are the Republicans (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        in the 40 districts with the highest combined 2008/2012 Obama percentage, along with the trend:

        CA-31    Miller, Gary    (R)        58.49%    57.73%    0.75%
        CA-21    Valadao, David    (R)        55.66%    53.06%    2.60%
        NY-19    Gibson, Chris    (R)        53.16%    54.08%    -0.92%
        CO-06    Coffman, Mike    (R)        52.60%    54.42%    -1.82%
        IL-13    Davis, Rodney    (R)        49.85%    55.60%    -5.75%
        IA-03    Latham, Tom    (R)        52.13%    53.09%    -0.96%
        NV-03    Heck, Joe    (R)        50.41%    54.54%    -4.13%
        PA-08    Fitzpatrick, Michael    (R)        49.95%    53.79%    -3.84%
        CA-10    Denham, Jeff    (R)        51.84%    51.55%    0.30%
        MI-06    Upton, Fred    (R)        49.29%    54.02%    -4.73%
        WA-08    Reichert, David    (R)        50.82%    52.39%    -1.57%
        FL-13    Young, Bill    (R)        50.76%    51.92%    -1.16%
        WI-07    Duffy, Sean    (R)        48.43%    54.01%    -5.58%
        PA-06    Gerlach, Jim    (R)        48.73%    53.54%    -4.80%
        MN-03    Paulsen, Erik    (R)        50.41%    51.83%    -1.42%
        WI-08    Ribble, Reid    (R)        47.77%    54.41%    -6.63%
        FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    (R)        53.27%    48.80%    4.47%
        VA-02    Rigell, Scott    (R)        50.76%    50.86%    -0.10%
        MN-02    Kline, John    (R)        50.05%    51.48%    -1.43%
        PA-15    Dent, Charlie    (R)        48.53%    52.79%    -4.26%
        MI-08    Rogers, Mike J.    (R)        48.44%    52.85%    -4.41%
        WA-03    Herrera Beutler, Jaime    (R)        49.13%    51.94%    -2.81%
        VA-10    Wolf, Frank    (R)        49.44%    51.41%    -1.97%
        NY-11    Grimm, Michael    (R)        52.17%    48.48%    3.69%
        MI-07    Walberg, Tim    (R)        48.43%    51.73%    -3.30%
        NY-23    Reed, Tom    (R)        49.39%    50.51%    -1.12%
        NY-22    Hanna, Richard    (R)        49.80%    50.00%    -0.20%
        CA-25    McKeon, Buck    (R)        49.03%    50.52%    -1.49%
        WI-01    Ryan, Paul    (R)        47.88%    51.37%    -3.49%
        OH-10    Turner, Michael    (R)        49.03%    50.00%    -0.97%
        VA-04    Forbes, Randy    (R)        49.34%    49.24%    0.10%
        MI-11    Bentivolio, Kerry    (R)        47.28%    50.96%    -3.69%
        OH-14    Joyce, David    (R)        48.32%    49.85%    -1.52%
        IL-06    Roskam, Peter    (R)        45.83%    52.03%    -6.20%
        PA-16    Pitts, Joe    (R)        46.91%    50.55%    -3.65%
        FL-07    Mica, John    (R)        47.72%    49.60%    -1.87%
        CA-49    Issa, Darrell    (R)        46.59%    50.52%    -3.93%
        CA-39    Royce, Ed    (R)        48.11%    48.96%    -0.85%
        IL-16    Kinzinger, Adam    (R)        46.08%    50.92%    -4.84%
        NE-02    Terry, Lee    (R)        46.46%    50.51%    -4.04%
        About half trended D:
        FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    (R)        53.27%    48.80%    4.47%
        NY-11    Grimm, Michael    (R)        52.17%    48.48%    3.69%
        CA-21    Valadao, David    (R)        55.66%    53.06%    2.60%
        CA-31    Miller, Gary    (R)        58.49%    57.73%    0.75%
        CA-10    Denham, Jeff    (R)        51.84%    51.55%    0.30%
        VA-04    Forbes, Randy    (R)        49.34%    49.24%    0.10%
        VA-02    Rigell, Scott    (R)        50.76%    50.86%    -0.10%
        NY-22    Hanna, Richard    (R)        49.80%    50.00%    -0.20%
        CA-39    Royce, Ed    (R)        48.11%    48.96%    -0.85%
        NY-19    Gibson, Chris    (R)        53.16%    54.08%    -0.92%
        IA-03    Latham, Tom    (R)        52.13%    53.09%    -0.96%
        OH-10    Turner, Michael    (R)        49.03%    50.00%    -0.97%
        NY-23    Reed, Tom    (R)        49.39%    50.51%    -1.12%
        FL-13    Young, Bill    (R)        50.76%    51.92%    -1.16%
        MN-03    Paulsen, Erik    (R)        50.41%    51.83%    -1.42%
        MN-02    Kline, John    (R)        50.05%    51.48%    -1.43%
        CA-25    McKeon, Buck    (R)        49.03%    50.52%    -1.49%
        OH-14    Joyce, David    (R)        48.32%    49.85%    -1.52%
        WA-08    Reichert, David    (R)        50.82%    52.39%    -1.57%

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:18:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Unfortunately for Dems (0+ / 0-)

        the Dem-leaning Republican seats that trended D mostly did so very mildly, while most of the ones that trended Republican did so by a larger amount.

        FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    (R)        53.27%    48.80%    4.47%
        NY-11    Grimm, Michael    (R)        52.17%    48.48%    3.69%
        CA-21    Valadao, David    (R)        55.66%    53.06%    2.60%
        CA-31    Miller, Gary    (R)        58.49%    57.73%    0.75%
        CA-10    Denham, Jeff    (R)        51.84%    51.55%    0.30%
        VA-04    Forbes, Randy    (R)        49.34%    49.24%    0.10%
        VA-02    Rigell, Scott    (R)        50.76%    50.86%    -0.10%
        NY-22    Hanna, Richard    (R)        49.80%    50.00%    -0.20%
        stand out as notably D-trending, while:
        WI-08    Ribble, Reid    (R)        47.77%    54.41%    -6.63%
        IL-06    Roskam, Peter    (R)        45.83%    52.03%    -6.20%
        IL-13    Davis, Rodney    (R)        49.85%    55.60%    -5.75%
        WI-07    Duffy, Sean    (R)        48.43%    54.01%    -5.58%
        IL-16    Kinzinger, Adam    (R)        46.08%    50.92%    -4.84%
        PA-06    Gerlach, Jim    (R)        48.73%    53.54%    -4.80%
        MI-06    Upton, Fred    (R)        49.29%    54.02%    -4.73%
        MI-08    Rogers, Mike J.    (R)        48.44%    52.85%    -4.41%
        PA-15    Dent, Charlie    (R)        48.53%    52.79%    -4.26%
        NV-03    Heck, Joe    (R)        50.41%    54.54%    -4.13%
        NE-02    Terry, Lee    (R)        46.46%    50.51%    -4.04%
        CA-49    Issa, Darrell    (R)        46.59%    50.52%    -3.93%
        PA-08    Fitzpatrick, Michael    (R)        49.95%    53.79%    -3.84%
        MI-11    Bentivolio, Kerry    (R)        47.28%    50.96%    -3.69%
        PA-16    Pitts, Joe    (R)        46.91%    50.55%    -3.65%
        WI-01    Ryan, Paul    (R)        47.88%    51.37%    -3.49%
        MI-07    Walberg, Tim    (R)        48.43%    51.73%    -3.30%
        WA-03    Herrera Beutler, Jaime    (R)        49.13%    51.94%    -2.81%
        stand out as notably R-trending. Some of that is likely just campaign effects, like the increased Republican effort in MI and WI relative to 2008.  But those PA seats are looking pretty solid for Team R, I think, especially since the incumbents are reasonably strong.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:25:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  How's the R-squared looking so far for (0+ / 0-)

      comparing 2008 performance by CD to 2012?

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:07:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt

      NY01 will eventually make to the top range of your list, when we get a chance to crack the Suffolk county NY numbers. PA07 will probably end up in the lower range, but both are likely in the top 20 list.

  •  Election time once again (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    Just remember, whoever you vote doesn't matter. Just vote. Along as you don't pick DE.
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    •  Why no West Virginia on the list? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drhoosierdem, LordMike, psychicpanda

      It seems like a state that people might want to see something on this week.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:28:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Unlike in 2012 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, LordMike, DCCyclone

      Minnesota will likely be a useful place to poll in 2014. LOTS of stuff is up in the state that will actually be contested.

      •  It would be good sign if Minnesota goes by se same (0+ / 0-)

        way that in 2012 )

        I voted for Maine )

        •  I am hopeful (0+ / 0-)

          But I am far from convinced. I am leery about what I am seeing going on in St. Paul now. Dayton would be wise to propose his budget now instead if sitting on it. The natives are getting restless, as they say. We want to legislature to be laser-focused on a budget right now, because the chatter of some of the partisan pet projects right about now kind of makes me leery about how it will be perceived

          •  You seem to be really concerned (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bfen, askew, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

            With the possibility of Democrats implementing pieces of the Democratic agenda with their Democratic majority.

            •  well there should be concern about overreach. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sawolf, OGGoldy

              Dems here are wary of getting into gun control, for instance.  We have enough Democrats representing rural areas here to determine control of the legislature, and that's a concern.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:40:42 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Big concern (0+ / 0-)

                Although any gun legislation is DOA in the senate anyways. There are no fewer than 9 DFL senators with A ratings from the NRA, and that is more than enough to kill anything big dead in its tracks.

                The big concern I have is that the legislature is seen as putting anything ahead of the budget. Republicans did this with their pet projects and never got around to a budget and the state got shut down. The Republicans got absolutely murdered in the media, public opinion, and polling. They never recovered from this. If the DFL is seen as putting pet projects ahead of good governance, the electorate can and will turn against our fledgling majority faster than you can say lutefisk.

                Budget first, then partisan agendas.

                •  As long as the budget is done by the end (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  BeloitDem

                  of the regular session, I'm not worried. Anything they do now they can say they were waiting for the official budget forecast and anything after that is walking and chewing gum at the same time. As long as there isn't a shut down, no one will notice exactly what order things were done in or remember that when voting in 2014.

                  22, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

                  by JonathanMN on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:44:27 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I have little faith in politicians to move quickly (0+ / 0-)

                    I really wish Dayton proposed his budget earlier. Get that out of the way, throw in a little jab towards Republicans "We finished our budget in March, they didn't have one til July" type of thing. That leaves time (a couple months) for some red meat for the base at the end or whatever. I just don't like the headlines I am seeing now "Legislators bored while waiting for budget" "gun control bill first debated by House" etc.

                •  The Republicans didn't have unified control (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  of Government. As long as we pass a budget and it isn't completely awful, we shouldn't be worried.

    •  I voted for Ohio. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      I want to see how Kasich is holding up.

  •  FL18 and TX23 are not yet on NRCC's target list, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

    since the redistricting has not fully settled in FL and TX, aka, who knows who will end up where.

    But chances are these two district will stay put, or only be slightly modified. Hard to believe NRCC won't target them then.

    •  I could see them not targeting the 23rd if (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      the Hispanic population has to be bumped up and it ends up at like 56% Obama.  They didn't target Cuellar, Castro, or Hinojosa after all so I doubt they'd waste time on someone who is clearly stronger than Obama in the district.

      The 18th however might move the other direction depending on whether the 20th gets struck down as a gerrymander (which it is, that shit isn't VRA required) though that would put the 22nd permanently out of reach for Republicans.

      If anyone has good court-drawn maps of Florida, I'd love to see them as I'm not totally satisfied with the one I drew.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:31:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  they'd be insane not to (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Especially with West indicating that he doesn't plan to run again.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:31:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  With these numbers for FL-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    With these numbers for FL-Gov, the Democratic Party also need to check FL-Sen 2016.

    Marco Rubio wins in 2010 but underperforming the Republican average.

    •  I'll say it again (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, SaoMagnifico, dc1000, MichaelNY

      FL-senate race in '16 is a pipe dream. Rubio is NOT losing. We got a better chance in holding Nelson's seat in '18 with Kathy Castor or Joe Garcia. Espcially with Castor given her name holds weights in important Tampa Bay. I live in reality, and reality says Rubio is heavily favored in '16

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:42:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Would you be opposed to check with some poll? (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, James Allen, betelgeux, MichaelNY

        This would not damage no-one, except, maybe, Rubio.

        For 2018 I would like Nelson continues. He wins term by term, with a voting record acceptable. Sincerely, I expect not more.

        •  Marc Rubio has very good aprovals (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DownstateDemocrat, betelgeux

          the kind of approvals that make potential oppenents think twice. Im confident in wining the Governorship in Florida. But we should waste our time in trying to get a senate seat that we wont win, in a VERY favorable year in the upper chamber. WI, IL, PA, NC are winnable compared to FL. And not to mention potential retirements in AZ and IA.

          And Nelson would be in that threshold where senators mull retirement. He has the right if he wants to retire. We have a good chance in holding that seat with the 2 individuals I mention. And if it's Castor that's even greater.

          So no, I dont want to waste time in getting a poll to see if Rubio is vuknarable in 16, We already no what that outcome is going to be.

          Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

          by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:17:05 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  4 years from now (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            AUBoy2007, jncca, James Allen, betelgeux, askew

            When these things are happening:

            Cubans are swinging left
            Hillsborough County trending blue
            Orlando, Palm Beach, and Miami area both growing and getting bluer.

            And you say we "know" that Rubio's not going to lose? Speak for yourself.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:21:41 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  When the FLADems (0+ / 0-)

              get their shit in order and are just as strong as the FLGOP then I'll reconsidered. Till then I still think he's favored for another stint.

              Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

              by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:30:43 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Of course I will fight IL, WI and PA (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

            and some open seat. No doubt about it.

            Florida will be polled lots of times this cycle. There is not cost and not time wasted by to include a question asking about Crist vs Rubio. Even it would be good to include also a second question asking about Sink vs Rubio. And if Rubio lead Crist by 7, the work is finished.

            Sometimes I think the people need to open a little the mind to more options.

          •  IL and WI are the two biggest Sen targets in '16 (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            abgin, betelgeux, MichaelNY

            If Rubio runs for POTUS or retires, depending on what candidates both parties nominate, we could make a play for FL. NH is another potential target, as well as PA.

            Regarding PA, I think Toomey is more popular than Corbett is, but not by much, so there's our third biggest Senate target in 2016.

            WI is our second-biggest target, as Johnson is quite a bit less popular than Walker is, however, Johnson probably isn't unpopular enough to be vulnerable to a primary challege. Russ Feingold is reportedly considering a run for his old seat, and, if he doesn't unilaterally disarm like he did in 2010, he should be able to defeat Johnson. Simply put, Johnson's only chance of winning re-election is to somehow draw a weak Dem nominee.

            IL is our biggest target in 2016, since Kirk won in a perfect storm-type scenario (weak Dem nominee, GOP wave year, Green candidate siphoning votes away from Dem nominee). Expect a multi-way Dem primary here.

            "All we say to America is be true to what you said on paper." -Martin Luther King, Jr.

            by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:01:59 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  No to Feingold (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SLDemocrat, betelgeux, askew, MichaelNY

              look I like Feingold, but in the post Citizen United era we can't run a candidate who is going to be gun ho on morals. Im still urked on how he ran his race in 2010.

              Ron Kind please!

              Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

              by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:13:39 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Kind has serious issues with the Dem base in WI... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                betelgeux, MichaelNY

                ...he's quite in-tuned with local issues in Western Wisconsin (which is how he's entrenched himself to WI-3), but he's not a statewide candidate. His pro-NRA stance does NOT play well in Madison and Milwaukee, and he'd be blown out big time in that area of Wisconsin if faced with a competitive statewide primary.

                Simply put, Ron Johnson would LOVE to ratfuck a Dem primary for an ultra-liberal primary challenger to Kind.

                "All we say to America is be true to what you said on paper." -Martin Luther King, Jr.

                by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:17:39 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  What if he runs for president? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Whether he is the nominee or not, months spent campaign in IA, NH, and SC probably wont help his numbers in FL, especially considering he is still a freshman in a swing state.

        Because of that, I hope Dems find a good recruit for that Senate race.  

        •  Good point (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          but he is such an empty suit, and hes not running if Jeb runs. Or should I say when Jeb runs.

          Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

          by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:44:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'd actually be surprised if the GOP picks him (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          There is actually some capability that the party could move even further downward in my estimation. I didn't care much for Romney or McCain, but they're both pretty accomplished guys with long resumes. Of course Romney was craven and McCain insane, but on paper at least, they seemed credible. Rubio's sole accomplishment is that he became friends with Jeb Bush. (Being Hispanic is not an accomplishment, he had no choice in that.) I suppose it's possible that party interest groups might let him put his name on a couple things so a Rubio Administration isn't utterly absurd as a proposition. I guess we'll see.

          •  I think Ryan and Rubio are bother weaker (4+ / 0-)

            candidates than the media makes them out to be. Members of Congress rarely make good presidential candidates; 2008 seemed to be the exception to that.

            And in 2016, it seems like there will be a decent field of GOP governors running for president. I can easily see Bobby Jindal pointing out he has actually enacted conservative policy in his state, rather than just talking about it like Ryan and Rubio.

            •  especially house members (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Its been like forever since a sitting congressman was elected to either Prez or Veep.

              I believe FDR's first VP, John N Garner, was the last one to do so. And he was not you typical member seeing as he was speaker. Heck after saying the job wasn't worth a bucket of piss, perhaps he should have stayed as speaker.

              "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

              by lordpet8 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 08:25:42 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  FL-18: Mike Haridopolos (7+ / 0-)
    "On the one hand, whoever opposes him will have much less money than West."

    $1.4 million COH isn't West level money, but former Senate President Mike Haridopolos has $1.4 million on hand in his federal account and that would give him quite the running start in a district that voted R+4 in 2012. He wasn't a great statewide candidate but running for a House seat that tilts heavily towards your party isn't nearly as hard as running statewide in Florida.

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:48:07 PM PST

  •  Is Pete Gallego (D-TX) in a Romney district? (0+ / 0-)

    I thought it was narrowly Obama.

    Anyway, Gallego has a unique strength in his district.  He lives in the big open space between El Paso and San Antonio, so he connects with rural voters on a regional basis and got a lot of support from Republicans who wouldn't otherwise vote for him.  In Jeff Davis County, for example, Romney won 60-37 but Gallego won 54-42.

    On the other hand, there aren't many people who live in that swath of land so it may not help him much.  And he's likely to be a "no" vote on gun control, too, being from West Texas, so that's a bit of a down side for us.

    •  Also, when the legislature has to redraw the map (0+ / 0-)

      for 2014, they will be forced to make the 23rd safely Democratic.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:26:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Probably not, but likely lean Democratic (0+ / 0-)

        I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

        by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:33:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Safe for Gallego, I meant (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          He already has a regional advantage in the Big Bend, and when the legislature is forced to draw the more heavily Hispanic areas of San Antonio into the district, it will add to that strength.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:35:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, James Allen

            The district as it currently stands is very similar in nature to Collin Peterson's district in MN, but not as safe. You have a very strong incumbent (and long standing incumbent in a certain part of the district) that will be very hard to dislodge because of his very pointed ideological differences with the national party (gun control was mentioned above somewhere, energy is another, social policy yet still another, etc.).

            You've also got the key point by noting that when the district is redrawn it will have to be redrawn in Bexar County only, with some precinct swaps between himself, Castro, and Lamar Smith. Most likely more of the southside will be placed into the district, with the northern towns of Helotes and Shavano Park (as well as likely all of the rest of northern section inside Loop 1604) being excised to the 20th and 21st. There will likely have to be some adjustment between the 20th and 21st as well to even out the populations, most likely by giving the 20th some more of the Northeast, like it has historically had.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 05:41:40 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  It voted narrowly for Romney (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42, MichaelNY

      because it was made a point less Dem in the interim maps as opposed to the post-LULAC v. Perry maps.   wwmiv agreed on that point that Gallego has a unique advantage due to his rural base (also, his rural State Rep. seat stayed blue this year).  In comparison, Canseco, Ciro Rodriguez, Bonilla, and Albert Bustamonte were all from San Antonio.  You have to go way back to Abraham Kazen (D-Laredo) for a person who has represented the 23rd, but wasn't from San Anton.  wwmiv said that Gallego is a little more conservative than Ciro Rodriguez as well.  That, combined with his geographic base, probably makes him harder to bump off than Ciro.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:32:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Little? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        I'd go further and say that Gallego is much more conservative than Ciro. Ciro made alot of hay about his "conservative" bona-fides, but most of that was smoke and mirrors. In reality the only issues where he was actually conservative on was abortion and same-sex marriage. Pete shares those positions publicly as well as taking numerous other conservative positions.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 05:43:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  It is narrowly Romney (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen

      I haven't read anything below, so I'm responding without knowing what others have said:

      The tentative numbers that I have are about 51-49 two party vote rounded.

      It was narrowly Obama in 2008. Also keep in mind that the district will be redrawn to be more Democratic (Republicans are expected to take that up this session). It should end up probably as a narrow Obama district, probably 52-48 maybe even as high as 54-46.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 05:35:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Why is Baldacci even thinking of running again...? (8+ / 0-)

    PPP's most recent poll to ask about him from last year found him at a pathetic 37/52 fav/unfav.  We might as well just nominate Libby Mitchell again.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:22:39 PM PST

  •  PPP NC Miscellaneous (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    McCrory at 45/19 approval, Obama at 46/52 disapproval (seems kind of low)

    Mr. Anonymous Richard Burr at 32/30 approval

    Legislative Democrats at 34/44 approval
    Legislative Republicans at 31/48
    Legislature overall at 15/50

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:24:54 PM PST

  •  I can't imagine why people like (0+ / 0-)

    Berger and Tillis would even consider running for senate now that they're in the majority, but I guess they are.

    Anyway, if Berger were to run I'm sure his son Phil Berger, Jr. who is the District Attorney for Republican Rockingham County would run to succeed him in the state senate, but unfortunately at R+4 to R+5 (compared to the state) these are the sort of districts we'd need to win if we want to take the state senate and I don't see that happening.  Our bench for that district sucks too as everyone from Greensboro is going to be too liberal and the rest of the district is heavily Republican.  Our only shot would probably be to run a wealthy businessperson unless I'm just forgetting somebody.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:34:28 PM PST

    •  I believe Tillis (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, lordpet8

      is term limited as House Speaker (or said he would only serve two terms at the outset) and will be stepping down at the end of next year's session.  So obviously if that's true he would want to move on to bigger things rather than stay in the House under a new Speaker.

      •  Ah I didn't know they had leadership term limits (0+ / 0-)

        The legislature is definitely not my area of expertise, especially when it requires thinking about all the crazy that's going to pass this session and how we basically cannot take it back for the foreseeable future.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:51:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Don't they hae term limits in the NC G.A? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf

      and I would love Hagan to stomp the daylights of Tilis or Berger statewide. In two years time hang McCrory around their necks and paint them with the state legislative brush.

      Im not concern about Hagan at all compared to our other seats.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:40:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  WATN: Dennis Kucinich now a FOX News Contributor (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betelgeux, MichaelNY

    What a turncoat he is!

    Link to story

    "All we say to America is be true to what you said on paper." -Martin Luther King, Jr.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:39:43 PM PST

  •  Anyone but Baldacci... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, betelgeux, MichaelNY

    For ME-Gov. Except for Gov. LePage, obviously, but I would totally support Eliot Cutler over Baldacci (it would also get Cutler out of the way if Sen. Collins retires, is primaried, or looks vulnerable).

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:46:38 PM PST

  •  question for past dem senate retirements: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sacman701, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    which were scared into retirement?

    2014
    Rockefeller - yes

    2012
    Conrad No
    Nelson Yes
    Webb - Maybe. I don't think he likes politics anymore
    Bingaman No
    Akaka No
    Kohl No

    2010
    Bayh - Possibly. Like Webb, I think he was just sick of DC.
    Dorgan - depends if you believe Hoeven was ready to jump in
    Dodd - yes

    2008
    all nos

    2006
    all nos

    2004
    Hollings - probably. Add age to that too
    Breaux - no
    Graham - no
    Miller - no
    Edwards - no

    2000
    Bryan - maybe
    Kerrey - maybe. But he did win by ten in 1994
    Lautenberg - no
    Moynihan - no

    1998
    Glenn - no
    Bumpers - no
    Ford - no

    1996
    Heflin - possibly
    Nunn - no
    Pryor - no
    Johnston - giving his showing against David Duke, yes
    Bradley - he nearly lost in 1990, so maybe
    Exon - no, I think he was just sick of politics.
    Pell - no
    Simon - no

    1994
    Metzenbaum - yes
    Mitchell - probably not
    Riegle - given his involvement in the HBS, probably
    DeConcini - yes

    1992
    Wirth - maybe
    Adams - definitely
    Cranston - yes, although he was old anyways

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:49:09 PM PST

    •  Bayh: No (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, MichaelNY

      He would have won. You're right, he just didn't like being in the Senate.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:17:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  hmm (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      Nelson- I think saw the writting on the wall, there weren't going to be enough Nebraskans willing ticket split for him anymore

      Hollings- he had served quite a many terms, I don't think Demint scared him as so much as he had done his fair share and was ready to retire

      Johnston - wait was he really losing to duke?

      Metzenbaum - I think he was just old and ready to throw in the towel

      Wirth- he had grown tired of the senate, " frustration with the ever increasing role of money in politics to the exclusion of focus on public policy."

      "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

      by lordpet8 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 08:43:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I like this new Time cover (5+ / 0-)

    Joe Biden, Mike Bloomberg, and Gabrielle Giffords are pictured together in a cover story on the new push against gun violence: http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...  She looks to be in very good shape.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:30:35 PM PST

  •  Wolf sounds like a good candidate (0+ / 0-)

    I'll be keeping an eye on him as that race shapes up. Way more interesting than the likes of Treasurer Grossman, Lt. Gov. Murray, or Atty. Gen. Coakley.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:50:45 PM PST

  •  just read Jim Cooper's statement (8+ / 0-)

    about opposing Sandy relief.

    um, he knows that NY and NJ aren't part of New England, right? (I know, I know, of all the things wrong with that statement...)

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:57:24 PM PST

    •  the fact that no other Dem gave him cover in that (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      vote is very telling. Honestly if Matheson and McIntyre can vote for it there is no reason to vote for.

      "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

      by lordpet8 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 08:45:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I despise Cooper but he seems like Lipinksi in... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...that the local party machine backs him solidly and can scare off intraparty opposition, while local rank-and-file Democrats remain indifferent.

        That Tennessee district is one of the rare few non-VRA seats in the South that is solidly Democratic, and yet we have a guy in there who acts like it's R+10.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 06:30:50 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  WV Sen (9+ / 0-)

    Micheal Bennett needs to get someone on the phone with John Raese. Stat. Surest way of electing a Democrat.

  •  Oregon state senate, 2014 (3+ / 0-)

    Dems currently have a 1 seat majority.  2012 was not a big year because only 2 seats that were up were in between D+5 and R+5, and all of the D+ seats up were Dem held, all the R+ seats were Republican-held.  No seats changed hands.  2014 will be different.  Most of the swing districts are up in midterms.

    Republican-held districts:
    SD8- Located in Corvallis and Albany, this district seems to be still trending Democratic.  2012 only numbers give us D+7.3.  Improving our odds, the moderate Republican who had held onto the district in a local version of LaTourette resigned last fall and so the Republican incumbent is an appointee, a former state rep who is much more conservative than him.  Corvallis and Albany are similar in size, and each has a state house district of their own.  Albany's is about R+5 or R+6, and is represented by a Republican.  Corvallis' state house district is about D+19 or more, and is represented by a Democrat.

    SD15- Located in Hillsboro, Cornelius, and Forest Grove, this district also seems to be continuing to trend Democratic.  The incumbent, Bruce Starr, was last seen losing the Labor Commissioner race statewide in 2012.  The district's 2012 only numbers give us D+5.7.  Starr has lucked out in 2010.  His luck may have run out.  In 2010 both house districts within this senate district were picked up by Republicans, in 2012 both were picked up by Democrats, and not candidates with great profiles, either: a liberal, Hispanic college professor in one, and a Democratic political operative in the other.

    SD26*- Located in Hood River, northeastern Clackamas County, rural eastern Multnomah County, and some of outer Southeast Portland, this district is about D+1.5 in 2012 only numbers.  Represented by moderate Chuck Thomsen, this one may be hard to dislodge.  I honestly don't know who'd be a good candidate against him, perhaps a Hood River County Commissioner, but that's the body Chuck Thomsen recently left to take this seat from us in 2010.  Perhaps former state senator Rick Metsger misses his old seat?  He retired, though, he left voluntarily.  This one is more Democratic, and we just picked up the Portland area house district here, and only lost the Hood River-based on 52-48 with a candidate who raised little money.

    SD10- Located in South Salem, West Salem, some rural Marion County, and the small cities of Monmouth (a college town) and Independence, this district got more conservative in redistricting, having been one of the most closely divided in the state.  Now the 2012 only number is about R+2.8.  In 2006 we almost took it when the mayor of Monmouth ran as a Democrat, but incumbent (moderate) Republican Jackie Winters is immensely popular and held on.  She is supportive of state workers (hey, it's Salem) and so the unions generally support her.  The district is also ancestrally Republican, Republicans easily hold both house districts here, and it's wealthier and whiter than the rest of Salem.  All of this makes it look difficult.  However, Winters is old, one of the oldest senators right now.  An open seat is likely.

    SD20- Located in central Clackamas County, this district was made more Republican after Alan Olsen took it from Democrat Martha Schrader in 2010.  Previously slightly Dem-leaning, it is now slightly Republican leaning, and while Obama won it under these lines in 2010 (according to my estimates), he definitely lost it this year, leaving it at about R+3.1 in 2012 only numbers, but Democrats, including Obama, underperformed in Clackamas County this year.  It could mean that we'll have a harder time running here in 2014, or it could mean that a local Democrat, like say former Canby Mayor Melody Thompson or former Estacada Mayor Bob Austin, could have a good shot if 2012 was an anomaly.

    Dem-held districts:
    SD3- Located in Medford and Ashland in Southern Oregon, we've held this district with Democrat Alan Bates of Medford for many years.  He's a popular incumbent here who held on in 2010 by the skin of his teeth, a doctor, who beat a strong challenger who was a general.  However, he didn't take the campaign seriously, not understanding how strong the R wave was, and if he got a strong challenge again wouldn't likely take it for granted.  Ashland keeps this district slightly D-leaning, but only slightly, at about D+0.8 in 2012 numbers only.

    SD16- Located on the North Coast primarily, but also taking Columbia County, and a few precincts in Washington County (that are Republican) and a few in Multnomah County (that are Democratic), this district is much more ancestrally Democratic than it appears, and neither it nor the state house districts have seen a close race in years.  The 2012 numbers are about D+2.2, and I don't see incumbent Betsy Johnson having any problems.  The Republican base here is sparse.

    We have a good shot to expand the majority.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 06:22:26 PM PST

  •  MA-SEN: Lynch says Capuano not running (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    makes it an "uphill" race if he were to run. Acknowledging the obvious. Although, he says it wont affect his decision on whether to run or not.

    Meanwhile, Kerry's confirmation hearing has been set for Jan 24. Not sure what the typical timeline would be, but Hillary Clinton was confirmed 8 days after her confirmation hearing in 2009. So it looks, at the earliest, Kerry could resign the seat, the first week of February.

    •  A July Special Election would be a mistake. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      All the colleges are out.  Needs to be May at the latest - what is the shortest possible window for the special election?  If there is primaries, I can't see it being before June.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 07:00:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I wonder if Lynch will wait to see what Brown does (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      If Brown doesn't run, maybe Lynch would then primary Markey because the Senate seat would be almost a sure thing and a rough and tumble primary wouldn't hurt the eventual victor.  But if Brown runs, a rough and tumble Dem primary would be blamed should Brown win and Lynch would be largely blamed since Markey is already in and has a lot of the party lined up behind him.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 07:03:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  DEFINITELY the song of the day/week/year (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 07:57:48 PM PST

  •  Minnesota House Special Elections (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades

    In 14A only 3 candidates filed for the St. Cloud-based seat vacated by Republican Steve Gottwalt. This district is very marginal, and is expected to be highly competitive, although I don't think any of the candidates are terribly impressive, although I suspect McKee will be lucky to clear 10% against Joanne Dorsher (D) and Tama Theis (R). Dorsher is probably a nominal favorite, considering she has held elected office before on the St. Cloud school board, and ran against Gottwalt before. Theis is a tea-party type that in true fashion upset the more experienced and establishment candidate Jon Severson, a St. Cloud city councilman.

    http://www.minnpost.com/...

    In 19A, which in spite of the first paragraph of the linked story, is in the Mankato area, not the Rochester area, there are 4 DFLers running, and the nominee will be decided at a convention on Saturday. My money is on St. Peter mayor Tim Strand. The Republican candidate is the quixotic Al Quist, who has had a strange political career including a terribly botched primary against the most popular governor in recent Minnesota history, and getting beaten by Tim Walz in MN-1 by 15 poinds. This is a fairly DFL district, although there is a chance that this goes really wacky, as it is a special election.

    http://www.minnpost.com/...

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