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Pres-by-CD: Adding another two districts today, OH-05 and OH-09. Nothing particularly surprising to see here, as GOP Rep. Bob Latta's OH-05 was drawn to be safely Republican (54-44 Romney) and Dem Rep. Marcy Kaptur's OH-09 was drawn to be safely Democratic (68-31 Obama). (jeffmd)

10:47 AM PT (David Jarman): NJ-Sen: In case you missed it over the weekend, there was a brief freakout over whether Frank Lautenberg's retirement was imminent. WNYC reported yes, based on "sources familiar with Lautenberg's thinking," then shortly thereafter Politico reported no, based on an actual statement from a Lautenberg flack. The story seems to have died back down, so, uh... we basically know as little as we did before any of this happened. Carry on.

10:59 AM PT (David Jarman): IA-Gov, IA-01: This is rather unexpected: third-term Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley is floating his name for the gubernatorial race in 2014. He's "seriously considering" a challenge to Terry Branstad (Braley wasn't interviewed for the article, but several other party insiders say as much). That's the first I've heard of Braley in connection with the governor's race, as he's been seen as an up-and-comer with a potential future in House leadership (though he doesn't have an entirely safe district and barely hung on in 2010), and, if he were to go for a promotion, has usually been linked with the Senate instead. (On the plus side, this may be a clue that Tom Harkin is indeed planning to run for re-election, and Governor is Braley's only shot to move up this cycle.)

This poses the question, though, of Braley's odds, and his motivation. Why give up on the House for a race against Branstad that, at least for now, seems like a long shot? Branstad's popularity hasn't taken anywhere near as much of a hit as other midwestern Republican governors elected in 2010, and clearly Iowans have no problem returning Branstad year after year to the state house (this would be his sixth term, if he runs and wins again). Braley may be hoping to be standing at the front of the line if Branstad retires, but Branstad is still in his 60s and doesn't seem to be signaling retirement. Maybe, though, declining quality of life in the House and the prospect of many more years in the minority is enough to motivate him to roll the dice now.

11:09 AM PT (David Jarman): SC-01: Sorry folks, but it looks like we won't have a sitcom-style Sanford vs. Sanford race in the special election to fill Tim Scott's seat. Jenny Sanford, the ex-wife of ex-Gov. Mark Sanford, has said she won't run (after having previously said she'd consider it). Mark Sanford, on the other hand, seems poised to run (according to leaks to the right-wing blogosphere), though he hasn't made that official. (I just checked, and it looks like none of their sons is old enough to make the race; they were married in 1989. So we can't have "Sanford vs. Son" either.)

11:21 AM PT (David Jarman): KY-Gov: Democratic AG Jack Conway seems to be gearing up for a gubernatorial run in 2015, when two-term incumbent Steve Beshear in termed-out; he let the AP know that he's taking a "very, very serious look" at the race. CW seemed to dictate that Conway took on some serious damage from his 2010 Senate run, where his loss to Rand Paul had an exclamation point put on it by the failed Hail Mary pass of the "Aqua Buddha" ad... but then he was overwhelmingly re-elected as AG in 2011, so those fears may have been overstated, and by 2015, that incident should be deep down the memory hole.

This pre-announcement gives us some other helpful pieces of intel: 1) it makes it less likely that Conway will try another Senate run, against Mitch McConell in 2014, and 2) it sounds like ex-Auditor Crit Luallen won't be running for Governor in 2015, as she's allied with Conway and sounds like she'll stay out of the way. The article also does some Great Mentioning of other candidates, most of whom on the Dem side you can already guess (with Lt. Gov. Jerry Abramson mentioned first), but with unexpected options on the GOP side (including KY-02 Rep. Brett Guthrie). If nothing else, it's nice to see a red state where the Dem bench far overshadows the GOP bench.

11:39 AM PT (David Jarman): ID-Gov, ID-01: Sophomore Rep. Raul Labrador, from Idaho's 1st district, is already looking for a promotion... though it's not clear yet if the road is open for him to do so. He's now saying he's interested in running for Governor (which may make sense, since, having not voted for John Boehner for Speaker in the ill-considered coup-type thing a couple weeks ago, he's not likely to rise through the ranks in the House). Labrador says his decision hinges on what happens with immigration reform in the House, but, really, his decision probably hinges on what GOP incumbent Gov. Bruce Otter does. The conventional wisdom is that Otter runs for a third-term (which is legal under Idaho law, though pretty unusual), but Otter will be 72 and the article points out that his campaign website is "on hiatus." (It's not clear from the article if Labrador would run even if Otter ran again anyway.) Lt. Gov. Brad Little is also cited as a potential candidate if Otter decides to retire.

11:50 AM PT (David Jarman): PA-Gov: Not a surprise, since he hasn't even been sworn in yet, but the state's newly-elected Dem state Auditor, Eugene DePasquale, says he won't be a gubernatorial candidate in 2014 (much as newly-elected AG Kathleen Kane confirmed last week as well). No matter, as the Dems seem to have a long list of potential challengers for the increasingly-unpopular GOP Gov. Tom Corbett.

12:00 PM PT (David Jarman): VA-Gov: Marginalized Republican malcontent to run as independent candidate instead of in the GOP primary! Before you get your hopes up that it's launch time for the Bill Bolling gubernatorial campaign, though, it's not about him... instead, it's Tareq Salahi, who's something of the political equivalent of a celebreality contestant, famous for being famous for being photographed with famous people. Since I'm not sure where any of his actual votes might come from, I'm not sure this will tip the VA-Gov balance between Dem Terry McAuliffe and GOPer Ken Cuccinelli in any meaningful way, the way a Bolling run might.

12:03 PM PT (David Jarman): MI-Gov: Democratic ex-Rep. Mark Schauer, who got bounced out the House after one term in 2010, is usually on the vague list of Democratic gubernatorial potential candidates. Not much to go on here, but it's at least something out of the horse's mouth: he is indeed "mulling over" a run, pushed along by Rick Snyder's signing of right-to-work legislation.

12:09 PM PT (David Jarman): And in case you were wondering what Jenny Sanford's motivation in not running for the House was, she says:

"The idea of killing myself to run for a seat for the privilege of serving in a dysfunctional body under John Boehner when I have an eighth-grader at home just really doesn't make sense to me."

12:14 PM PT (David Jarman): CO-03: Not sure if this is the end of the line for Sal Pace's hopes of moving up to Congress (he's the Democratic former state legislator who lost the CO-03 race to GOP frosh Sal Tipton last year), or if this is his way of keeping his name front and center for a few years. Either way, he just got appointed to a vacant spot on the Pueblo County Commission. (Pueblo, along with Grand Junction, is one of the few decently-sized cities in this mostly rural district that covers half the state.)

12:22 PM PT (David Jarman): NJ-Sen: Everyone's gaming out a Cory Booker/Frank Lautenberg primary for 2014's New Jersey Senate race... but it's easy to forget that there are various other ambitious Dem pols in the state, and with the 2013 gubernatorial race looking unappetizing, there could actually be a crowded field. Rep. Frank Pallone's name has gotten bounced around a bit (especially if Lautenberg retires), but today there's yet another name on the horizon: state Assembly speaker Sheila Oliver. She didn't directly say she's interested, but she said she has "not ruled anything out" at the same time as she said that "the lack of a woman in Congress from New Jersey is an embarrassment that must be remedied and taken into consideration." Without a more extensive knowledge of who's allied with which county's local Democratic machines, I wouldn't even begin to try to game out how a four-way primary might go down. (As with both Newark mayor Booker and Montclair-resident Lautenberg, Oliver is from Essex County; East Orange, to be precise.)

12:33 PM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: National Journal has a thoughtful piece on how increasing racial polarization of our congressional districts -- and the decline in ticket-splitting that goes with it -- is amping up the partisanship in the House and also making it harder for the Dems to take back the majority any time soon. This is one of those pieces, though, where the graph says way more than the words: it breaks down all the districts into deciles according to non-white share of the VAP, and then breaks down the Dem or GOP numbers within each of those categories. There's a tipping point around 40% nonwhite; anything whiter, and it's highly likely to be a Republican district, and anything less white, and it's even more likely to be a Democratic district.

12:48 PM PT (David Jarman): Maps: If you like to watch things turn from blue to red, this story about the politics of coal has a cool interactive map, that lets you switch back and forth between county-by-county presidential results across Appalachia for the years 1976, 1988, 2000, and 2012.

12:52 PM PT: Special Elections: Via Johnny, for Tuesday:

Mississippi SD-16: Open Democratic seat centered in the booming metropolis that is West Point; the previous incumbent, Bennie Turner, passed away in November. Two candidates are running, attorney Angela Turner Lairy, who is also Turner's daughter, and a local businessman, Kenny Fowler. Though the election is nonpartisan, Lairy is a Democrat and Fowler is an independent.

12:59 PM PT: AZ-Gov: Here's a new name in the mix for the 2014 Arizona governor's race: Former Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman, who was first elected in 2004 and served until last year, says he's considering a run in the GOP primary. Phoenix Business Journal reporter Mike Sunnucks also offers a helpful list of possible candidates:

The 2014 governor's race could be a crowded field with Hallman, Arizona Treasurer Doug Ducey and Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett possible candidates on the Republican side. Former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona, former Arizona Board of Regents chairman Fred DuVal and Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton may possibly run on the Democrat side.

1:12 PM PT: HI-Gov, -Sen: After lots of speculation about her future plans in the wake of getting passed over for the late Sen. Dan Inouye's Senate seat, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa has spoken out and says that all options will "be on the table." What are those options? One would be a primary challenge to the guy who snubbed her, Gov. Neil Abercrombie. Another would be a primary challenge to the guy picked instead of her, Sen. Brian Schatz. And the third possibility would be to simply run for re-election to the House. Hanabusa didn't offer any kind of timetable for making a decision, but she did explicitly invoke the fact that Inouye requested she replace him, saying "Underlying all of that is the fact that he felt that I would do right by Hawaii." Conceivably that could point more toward a Senate bid, but I wouldn't want to hazard a guess.

1:26 PM PT: KY-Sen: Two Kentucky pols are saying no to a Senate bid, one from each side of the aisle. Democratic state Sen. Dennis Parrett says he may seek higher office some day, but he has no interest in running against Mitch McConnell. And Rep. Brett Guthrie (KY-02) also says he "strongly supports" McConnell, a fellow Republican, and has no intention of issuing a primary challenge.

1:35 PM PT: Redistricting: This is a couple of weeks old, but Princeton Prof. Sam Wang's entry into the debate over what's more responsible for the structural problems Democrats face in retaking the House—aggressive GOP gerrymandering or the natural tendency of Dem-leaning voters to cluster together in dense urban areas—is worth a read. Wang comes down heavily on the side of the former, but I can't do his argument justice by summarizing, so I'd encourage you to click through and read the full piece if you are interested in this topic.

1:39 PM PT: NE-Gov: Two more Republicans are saying "no dice" to a possible gubernatorial bid: University of Nebraska Regent Tim Clare and state Attorney General Jon Bruning. Bruning, you'll recall, was humiliated in last year's GOP Senate primary, losing to now-Sen. Deb Fischer in an upset. He has not yet said whether he'll seek re-election as AG.

3:07 PM PT: P.S. The excellent Steve Kornacki has a terrific retrospective on Lautenberg's career, dating to his first run for office in 1982. It's filled with both the color and perspective that Kornacki so often excels at providing. A recommended read.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 06:00:08 AM PST

  •  Michigan term limits (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betelgeux

    I have some question that is not clear for me about the term limits for the gubernatorial elections in Michigan.

    The term limits are for the lifetime of the governor or it is possible to see a former governor like J Granhom running again for the same office?

    Some of the previous governors are not affected by the term limits of the 90s, but J Granholm would be affected.

    •  Granholm left so unpopular (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, betelgeux, MichaelNY, kman23

      It'd be much better if we didn't run her again.

      •  I think, though, that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        abgin

        while I wouldn't risk her running for governor, for senate she'd probably be a good bet.  Michiganders are less likely to vote for an R for that office.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 06:54:23 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  We have a handful of great candidates (7+ / 0-)

      in Michigan on the Dem side to be Governor. Particularly in Gary Peters and Gretchen Whitmer. There's no need for Granholm to make a comeback bid to Lansing. Now senate is different story, since Michigan has a long streak of electing Dems to that office. I think she'll be strong nominee for that office over any Republican the MIGOP nominate.

      I'm not going to talk about the senate race in Michigan anymore until Carl Levin makes a decision. Regardless what happens,  that will be a hold for the Democrats.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 08:20:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The term limits in Michigan are lifetime (6+ / 0-)

      so Granholm cannot run for Governor again.

      In November 1992 Michigan voters approved—by the sizable margin of 59–41 percent—an amendment to the state constitution that limits the number of terms a person may serve in various public offices. These lifetime limits affect officeholders sworn into office on or after January 1, 1993.

      - Limited to two terms are governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, and state senators (terms of office are four years).
      - Limited to three terms are state representatives (term of office is two years).
      - Terms served need not be consecutive, and if less than half a term is served in an office, it does not count toward the limitation.

      Michigan Term Limits
      •  Thank you very much (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        This was just my doubt, and you also included info about the rest of offices.

      •  I have feeling that law was directed at (8+ / 0-)

        the Democratic Sec of State and AG.

        Richard Austin was in his 6th term as Secretary of State (1971-1995) before he was thrown out in the 1994 wave. He was the last Dem to serve in that position

        Frank J Kelly served an unprecedented 37 years as the AG in the state (1961-1998). Although he was elligible for one more term, he retired and was suceeded by Granholm.

        "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

        by lordpet8 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 11:14:50 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Union that supported Warren won't endorse Markey (4+ / 0-)
    “He’s a weak candidate,” said Mike Monahan, the business director at the 
International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers 103, of Markey. Even though the union endorsed both Martha Coakley and Elizabeth Warren in recent Senate elections, Monahan said this time it won’t endorse.

    “The field is weak at best, and in a special election beating Brown will take a lot of work and a lot of money,” he said, adding that U.S. Sen. John F. Kerry’s potential confirmation as secretary of state is likely to send Brown right back to Capitol Hill. “This scenario is man-made and it shows the lack of respect that those people have in Washington for the amount of work we did in the Brown-Warren election. To re-create the scenario is a slap in the face to all the people who volunteered their time, door-to-door and made donations.”

    The union has more than 7,500 members who worked hard to elect Warren even though many members supported Republican Scott Brown, Monahan said.

    “There were friendships that were lost over this, families who feuded over this — and they don’t care,” said Monahan of national Democrats. Monahan said he might change his mind if Boston Mayor Thomas M. 
Menino asks him to help again.

    http://bostonherald.com/...

    Should this be a larger concern for Markey and Dems that a segment of support is pissed off that it's expected they'll just roll out again?  I think it should be - and in the very least Gov. Patrick should hold the special election as late as possible - so take the full five months, to give supporters some time away.  It's an endless Senate campaign cycle in Massachusetts - Coakley to Warren, to Kerry Special, to Kerry General.  

    President Obama would have been a Republican in the 1980's.

    by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 06:30:15 AM PST

    •  still think Kerry nom is a mistake (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, James Allen, MichaelNY, ArkDem14

      He has no unique capabilities or skills and his nomination comes with a significant risk that his Dem Senate seat will be lost to a Republican.  Obama made the decision that it is an acceptable risk.  We have to deal with the cards we have, not those we would have preferred.  We'll all know later in the year when the votes in the special election are counted whether Obama's Senate seat gamble was successful.

    •  What is their complaint (11+ / 0-)

      They're angry that John kerry is being promoted, or they just don't like markey, or they don't like special elections?  

      I don't quite get the angle here, but it does seem like he's trying to ensure that brown is sent back to the Senate, which sounds bizarre given the ranting about not wanting that.

      Monahan sounds like he'd be a great DK front-pager though :-)

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 06:55:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  All of the above. (4+ / 0-)

        Basically there was no reason to take Kerry out of the Senate now, but the WH and Obama take the volunteers, their hours worked, and money donated for granted.  

        President Obama would have been a Republican in the 1980's.

        by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 07:07:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Meh (15+ / 0-)

          I'd ask him if he wants cheese with that whine :-)

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 07:20:55 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  If he is not able to appreciate one of their guys (9+ / 0-)

            appointed as Secretary of state of the country, I would tell he is part of the trouble.

          •  Monahan is pathetic (9+ / 0-)

            That rant of his is epic fail.

            Friends and family members were divided in the Senate race?

            Tough shit, that's life in a democracy, suck it up and move on.

            You're acting like a victim in "the scenario" of a seat becoming vacant to force a special?

            You're no victim, this is normal political life, engage and move forward.

            The state party Dem establishment up there really seems a mess.  They grumbled early on last cycle that the national party forced a bad candidate on them in Warren, after they couldn't get their act together to produce their own good nominee, then they were wrong about Warren anyway.  And this after so many failed Governor's races, and then they all joined Coakley in taking that last special election for granted  until very late.

            If this Monahan guy reflects the typical political acumen in the state, God help them.  They have only the voters' natural partisan bent saving them.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 11:37:37 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Obama picked who he thought would be best... (8+ / 0-)

          That's the only standard that Obama can use, and Massachusetts Democrats (and several here) need to stop with the hand-wringing over it. Kerry is going to be Secretary of State, and Ed Markey is going to be our nominee.

          Oh, and if we can't hold that senate seat, it isn't Obama's fault, it's the fault of Massachusetts Democrats.

          Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

          by NMLib on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 08:27:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  You know some of us (16+ / 0-)

          Have do to that every friggin election cycle.

          I understand the argument that it's a strategic mistake to put a seat in play that doesn't need to be, but he can cry me a river over the "Oh no! We might have to actually campaign again, and that's icky" stuff.

          •  How do you have this every friggin cycle? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            randomfacts, Zack from the SFV

            Given this will be another high profile Senate election within six months of the last one which saw tens of millions donated and thousands of volunteer hours banked to see that Scott Brown was voted out of office.  

            Thanks folks, but now you get to do it all over again.  

            And then there will be another in 2014.  Massachusetts will have four Senate elections in five years.  

            President Obama would have been a Republican in the 1980's.

            by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 08:41:47 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Get over it (11+ / 0-)

              Massachusetts Democrats set the terms of vacancies in their state, not Obama. And honestly, in the state anyone who thought that there wasn't at least a very strong possibility that Kerry would be chosen for SoS needed to have their heads examined. That's a major reason why so many of the big players declined to run in 2012, they knew that there was a very strong possibility that the second seat would be open in one way or another in 2014.

              Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

              by NMLib on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 09:15:10 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Not to mention ... (10+ / 0-)

                ... the whole reason MA has this temporary appointment/quick election system is because MA Dems thought Kerry was going to be elected President in 2004.

              •  Lol (12+ / 0-)

                Love the subject line.  Who the hell is upset they get more frequent elections.  Oh boo hoo, we have to work more than a few months every six years.  

                It's not like these unions have needed to do all that much to re-elect Kerry/Kennedy the last 20+ years.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 09:23:04 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  They don't have to work at all, and they won't (0+ / 0-)

                  by the sounds of it.  It's called volunteering and it's called donating hard earned money when it was completely unnecessary to have to do so.  

                  "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

                  by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 09:29:57 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Good grief (6+ / 0-)

                    This is just idiocy on their parts.  All it's going to do is confirm that Dems in MA won't need this tiny union to win.  I sure hope they don't want anything in the future.

                    They act like they were the singular driving force behind Warren's win in 2012.

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 09:32:04 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Good for them (7+ / 0-)

                    They're a union of 7500 people, and one in which "many members supported Scott Brown" so... I would probably take that to mean about a third of the membership (which may or may not be an understatement, but it sounds reasonable) so that's actually 5000 people, and of those people, I'd be shocked if more than 10% of them actually did much of anything as far as volunteer work, so maybe 500 people.

                    Big whoop, the Massachusetts Democratic Party (and frankly the DNC and the DSCC) could easily make up for that in volunteers. This won't be a race that's starving for feet on the ground, this is just another excuse for you to you panic, Jacoby.

                    Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                    by NMLib on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 09:41:19 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  It's completely NECESSARY to do so... (8+ / 0-)

                    ...if they care about their elected leadership, because that's what democracy requires.

                    It's a nothingburger to speak of the frequency of elections.  They happen regularly in a democracy, yes.  Once in awhile there's a special election and you have to do it a little more.

                    This is just foolish childish whining.

                    When Gerry Connolly got elected to Congress in 2008, it forced a special election a few months later for his County Supervisor Board Chair office where I live, Fairfax County.  The Democrat, Sharon Bulova, won, in turn forcing a special election a short while later for her district county supervisor seat.  The Republican won that.  But no one blamed Connolly or Bulova for losing that supervisor seat......it's just normal political life.

                    This, too, is just normal political life.  Massachusetts is a Democratic state.  This is a U.S. Senate election.  Just get to work and win the fucking election, and stop complaining.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 11:42:39 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

              •  The "major players" sat out 2012... (0+ / 0-)

                because they didn't want to risk their safe House seats.  Which of course implies that they know Scott Brown is a strong challenge.  

                Markey, Lynch and Capuano all make noise now because they have nothing to lose when they run.  Markey loses and he goes back to his House seat.  

                "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

                by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 09:28:42 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Because there was likely another opportunity (8+ / 0-)

                  Since Kerry's seat was likely going to be open in 2014, and plus, Democrats were in the majority at the time, there was a lot more for them to lose back then then there is now.

                  By the way, yes, Scott Brown was a strong candidate, he was the incumbent Senator, but, and I know that this comes as a shock, but he lost to a political neophyte. Scott Brown won't win a special election even if he runs and I still doubt he runs.

                  Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                  by NMLib on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 09:33:31 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  We're dooooommmed <n/t> (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    NMLib, AUBoy2007, JBraden, DCCyclone

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 09:36:14 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  They will not risk their House seat. (0+ / 0-)

                    Capuano ran in the primary against Coakley because it was a special election.  Then he didn't run in the 2012 GE, neither did Markey but Markey is running now and Capuano is making noises about wanting to run as well -  because neither will risk their safe house seat to run for the Senate.  So no, no House reps will run in 2014 and they were not waiting for Kerry to retire - Kerry even said he was going to run for re-election before the SOS gig was even offered.

                    How committed will you be as a candidate if you have your 30 yr safe cushy job to fallback on?

                    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

                    by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 10:21:46 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Apparently you have psychic powers then... (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                      Because you have obviously read all current Massachusetts representatives' minds, and know for fact that there won't be a single rep who would give up their House seat (in a House that will almost certainly be Republican-controlled for the decade).

                      And by the way, politicians say a lot of things, but it was pretty much a given that Kerry was one of Obama's top choices for State.

                      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                      by NMLib on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 10:31:24 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I don't need to read minds, I pay attention to (0+ / 0-)

                        actions.  Capuano ran in 2009 and wants to run now, but didn't run in 2012 - Gee what would make him want to run in two specials but not the general?  Same could be said for Markey not running in 2012 but running now, and the same could be said for Lynch.  

                        And Susan Rice was always considered Pres Obama's top choice.  Sure Kerry was in the running, but it was far from a sure thing.  

                        "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

                        by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 10:36:57 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Since when? (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          Until relatively late in 2012, I never heard Susan Rice's name thrown out as SoS, Kerry's name had been out there, and he had shown plenty of interest in it. Given that, he wasn't a lifer in the Senate and there was always a chance that he would retire if he didn't get SoS, regardless of what he said publicly.

                          And, as I've mentioned before, Scott Brown has lost once already, that is going to take a lot of the shine away from his candidacy even if he does win (and I like that your presumption is that Scott Brown is just a lock for the seat, he isn't, he isn't going to be the favorite in the election, even if he runs).

                          Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                          by NMLib on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 10:42:54 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Thrown out by whom? Waiting for the MSM? (0+ / 0-)

                            Rice was mentioned a candidate for the SOS spot in 2008, so of course she was a top candidate all along to replace Sec. Clinton.  

                            I find it interesting you accuse me of reading minds, but now you're saying "don't listen to what Kerry said about running for re-election, he might have really retired".  

                            "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

                            by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 11:16:11 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Because public statements like that are worthless (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, BeloitDem

                            Olympia Snowe had plenty of public statements stating that she was planning on running until she announced her retirement.

                            And Kerry has run for president before and has thrown his name out for Secretary of State prior to this, those tealeaves mean a lot more to me than some public statements that far out. There was every reason to believe that Kerry, one way or another, would not be a candidate for his seat come 2014.

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:08:55 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  NBC constantly reported (4+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          NMLib, itskevin, MichaelNY, kman23

                          There was never a clear favorite between Rice and Kerry.

                          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                          by conspiracy on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 10:43:24 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Rice likely would have been blocked (0+ / 0-)

                            I don't think she would have has the votes to break cloture.

                          •  I disagree with that (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            There were few Republicans beyond the Superhawk Triumvirate that openly expressed doubt about Rice, and they would have to explain publicly why they were blocking a superqualified black woman (named Rice!) to State over wrong comments made on a TV show on an issue that wasn't even part of her job.

                            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                            by HoosierD42 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 03:23:36 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  And further (0+ / 0-)

                            The comments she made weren't even wrong. They were just based on the intelligence at the time, which was proven wrong, and then proven right.

                            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                            by HoosierD42 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 03:25:33 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Her statements didn't need to be wrong for the (0+ / 0-)

                            right to block her. The truth is, no Democratic Senator was going to fight for Susan Rice's nomination. They might not have blocked it but they weren't going to be the public backer of Susan Rice. I'm also pretty sure that a number of moderate/conservative Democrats wouldn't have supported Rice just because Susan Rice's name was attached to Libya amongst the Faux News crowd. Do you think someone like Begich, Pryor, Landrieu, McCaskill, Hagan, Heitkamp, or Manchin would risk re-election by voting for Rice when Kerry was there as a decent alternative? This was one of the few "key" issues that the low information crowd circled the wagons around. I'd much rather these swing state Senators focus their political capital on bigger/more important issues especially since Kerry is just as good of a nominee. It wasn't like Rice was the only qualified, credible candidate.

                            (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: J-Min's Stand Up

                            by kman23 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 07:32:11 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                    •  It was an open secret (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      NMLib, MichaelNY

                      that Kerry was a very likely SoS candidate for months before the '12 election, probably dating as far back as when Hillary said she would step down after the first term. And we've been talking about it here for months. Surely the MA Dem establishment were having the same conversations.

                      Whether or not Kerry said he planned to run for reelection is immaterial. Politicians say that crap all the time.

                  •  looking less likely that Brown will run (0+ / 0-)

                    he has been talking about running for governor instead

                •  those are not all of the major players. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  slothlax, MichaelNY

                  Plenty of the members of the US Senate did not get there directly from the US House, and Massachusetts has plenty of prominent Democrats.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 10:41:11 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Sure. But how can you be a major player (0+ / 0-)

                    If you didn't run in 2009, 2012, and now the 2013 special?  

                    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

                    by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 11:19:42 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  by being a statewide elected official. (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      slothlax, MichaelNY

                      Someone like, um, Governor Patrick, the state treasurer, etc.

                      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                      by James Allen on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:03:51 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  And Patrick has said he will not run... (0+ / 0-)

                        for the Senate now or in 2014, but will go back to the private sector.  AG Coakley had her shot and is eying a Gov run herself in 2014.  The Lt Gov is seen as lacking, and if you asked 100 random people to name the current treasurer I bet you wouldn't get 5 people who would know him off the top of their head.  

                        "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

                        by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 03:21:02 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  the same could probably be said for most of their (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          us house reps.  Someone who doesn't live in their district probably doesn't know who they are.

                          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                          by James Allen on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 03:53:52 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

              •  if all had gone according to Kerry's plans (6+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                NMLib, sawolf, JBraden, slothlax, MichaelNY, Audrid

                he'd have been out of the senate for 8 years now, and would've created a vacancy 8 years ago.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 09:36:22 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Huh? (8+ / 0-)

      And Warren was a strong candidate?

      He's right about the stupidity of forcing a special election, but what does that have to do with a simple endorsement?

      Must be more here than meets the eye.  Like a vote or a snub by Markey that ticked this guy off.

    •  No it isn't a concern (9+ / 0-)

      And this guy is really being ridiculous, this is politics, not bean-bag, if he wants to throw a temper-tantrum about it, that's his business, but let's not pretend this is anything other than a temper-tantrum.

      And to be blunt, if Massachusetts Democrats can't hold the seat, that's their fault, not Obama's.

      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

      by NMLib on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 08:21:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Stupid (10+ / 0-)

      These guys have 7500 workers and think they can override the entire Democratic establishment?  Okay...

    •  Senate raiding by Obama I do not like (9+ / 0-)

      But this attitude in response is pathetic.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 10:38:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  OH-5 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, slothlax

    I'm a little dissapointed that it didn't move further leftward this election cycle.  It moved way, way left in 2008 and landed at 45-53.  I guess given the direction of the country, dropping by 2 points in margin isn't terrible, but this likely won't be a pickup for us any time this decade unless Rep. Latta really screws up.  It's a shame, because he's one of the most worthless backbenchers in the Republican caucus and he lies badly in his campaigns too, even by normal political standards.  

    On the other hand, OH-9 moved WAY, WAY left, from 63-36 to 68-31.  Clearly the republicans knew what they were doing when they drew that congressional map.  The districts that looked like they could be competitive in theory, like OH-5, OH-6, and OH-16 all moved rightward this election cycle.  

    Hell hath no fury when vote sinks like OH-9 get broken up after the 2020 elections though.  

  •  PA-Supremes (6+ / 0-)

    PoliticsPA reminded me of this today. PA Const'n, Art V, Sec 13(b):

    A vacancy in the office of justice, judge or justice of the peace shall be filled by appointment by the Governor. The appointment shall be with the advice and consent of two-thirds of the members elected to the Senate, except in the case of justices of the peace which shall be by a majority. The person so appointed shall serve for a term ending on the first Monday of January following the next municipal election more than ten months after the vacancy occurs or for the remainder of the unexpired term whichever is less, except in the case of persons selected as additional judges to the Superior Court, where the General Assembly may stagger and fix the length of the initial terms of such additional judges by reference to any of the first, second and third municipal elections more than ten months after the additional judges are selected. The manner by which any additional judges are selected shall be provided by this section for the filling of vacancies in judicial offices.
    Translation: if Justice Orie Melvin is forced to leave office based on her corruption charges, set to go to trial later this month, any gubernatorial appointee to fill the vacancy (and who would need a 34/16 vote from a chamber that's 27 R/23 D) would get to serve until the November 2015 general election.  (Her term isn't up for retention until 2019.)
  •  Mike Pence is now governor of Indiana (3+ / 0-)

    now to see what new agenda items he comes up with. His new one seems to be a "Loser pays" tort reform bill.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 08:45:04 AM PST

  •  Interesting. (3+ / 0-)
    Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver stirs up field with potential Senate run

    By Star-Ledger Staff
    January 13, 2013

    By Matt Friedman and David Giambusso/The Star-Ledger

    TRENTON —Newark Mayor Cory Booker may have thought he was going to have a clear path to Frank Lautenberg’s U.S. Senate seat, but some New Jersey Democrats have a different idea.

    Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver is the latest big-name Democrat to hint that she might join the fray in a race still almost two years off. The Essex County lawmaker would be the first woman in a field of potential contenders that includes Booker, Rep. Frank Pallone (D-6th Dist.) and Senate President Stephen Sweeney (D-Gloucester).

    “I have not ruled anything out, but it’s not my immediate focus as we work to elect a Democratic governor and Legislature, and right now New Jersey has a Democratic U.S. Senator who deserves respect in Frank Lautenberg,” Oliver said in a statement Saturday. “But should an opportunity arise, the lack of a woman in Congress from New Jersey is an embarrassment that must be remedied and taken into consideration.”

    Oliver’s remarks came after The Star-Ledger asked her to expand on a comment she made during an interview that aired Friday night on My9’s “10 O’Clock News.”

    “I don’t think anyone is heir apparent to the U.S. Senate seat in New jersey,” she said in the television interview. “And I am certain that once we move past the gubernatorial election cycle, there could potentially be other contenders.”

    Oliver joins a growing chorus of Democrats who are perturbed at Booker’s surprise filing with the Federal Election Commission last week to seek the seat now held by Lautenberg, who turns 89 this month.

    Lautenberg has not said whether he intends to seek re-election. His reticence on that issue, combined with his lack of campaign fundraising activity, has led to speculation he is more likely to retire than seek another term.

    Nevertheless, Lautenberg’s office on Friday shot down a television news report that he had decided not to seek re-election, saying it was “simply not true.”

    Booker claimed last week’s filing was necessary to start fundraising for a race that is still 18 months away and said he meant no disrespect to Lautenberg.

    But Democrats throughout New Jersey were livid with the Newark mayor for appearing to pressure Lautenberg into stepping aside while drawing attention, and possibly money, away from this year’s gubernatorial race against Gov. Chris Christie.

    “Everybody needs to be doused with some water until we finish the gubernatorial race,” said state Sen. Richard Codey (D-Essex), himself a potential candidate for governor.

    Moreover, Lautenberg is seen as a liberal lion who has recently led multiple battles to win federal aid for Hurricane Sandy recovery as well as a renewed push to place tighter restrictions on gun ownership in the wake of the Newtown, Conn., school shooting.

    “This is all in the past six weeks. He’s been doing things for the people of New Jersey while Cory Booker’s running the Kardashian candidacy,” said one high-level Democratic operative who requested anonymity to protect associates working for the Booker campaign.

    Oliver’s statements Friday were taken by many as a sign of the party’s discontent with Booker.

    Montclair State University political science professor Brigid Harrison said Oliver’s potential run could be seen as a protest against Booker.

    “Many Democrats are enormously disappointed in his choice (to run for Senate) and also kind of put off by his assumption that when he decides he wants the U.S. Senate nomination it should be his for the asking,” Harrison said. “Many Democrats saw it as a move of political cowardice.”

    Harrison said a potential Oliver candidacy also smacks of backroom political intrigue.

    “The state party bosses backed her to become speaker,” Harrison said.
    “So now when you hear her making noise about a potential U.S. Senate run, one would assume that she had not done this without at least having a conversation with those same political bosses who are enormously influential in Democratic nominations.”

    Oliver, an East Orange resident, is the first African-American woman speaker and would be the first from New Jersey to go to the U.S. Senate.

    New Jersey has not sent a woman to Congress since former Republican U.S. Rep. Marge Roukema left office in 2003. That lack of diversity is a source of angst for many state leaders.

    “I agree fully with the speaker’s comment about the lack of a woman in our congressional delegation. It’s a very serious oversight,” state Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-Bergen), pointing out that the 14 members of New Jersey’s congressional delegation are all men. “Out of 14, it seems, in a state like ours, we should have more than no women and a lot more than one.”

  •  Mayor (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    Booker isn't a Trenton insider, that's their problem with him. He didn't ask them for permission before he made his intentions public.

  •  Been saying this for months (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 10:48:10 AM PST

  •  SC-01 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

    AP reporting Jenny Sanford will NOT run for Congress. LINK HERE

    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 10:55:20 AM PST

  •  Does anyone here have any familiarity with (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    Spanish linguistics?  I'm having a bit of trouble trying to transcribe the names of some of the congress members who pronounce their name in a Spanish accent since I don't speak the language (useless French instead) and I'm not familiar with rules regarding things like vowel lengthening, etc.

    Also if anyone who has decent enough knowledge of American English linguistics wants to help me out... I'm only through 64/533 as of right now.

    Anyway, here's a preview:
    Kyrsten Sinema: (KEAR-sten SIN-eh-muh) 'kɪ:ɹ.stɛ:n 'sɪ.nɛ.mə

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 10:57:01 AM PST

    •  General rule (0+ / 0-)

      unless otherwise accented, the second to last syllable is the emphasized one. So it would be seen-EH-muh

    •  lol (9+ / 0-)

      you should've studied more practical languages like me: Hindi, Biblical Hebrew, Latin.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:14:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hindi? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, BeloitDem

        That's interesting.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:31:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hindi is decently practical down here (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, ArkDem14, BeloitDem

        in Santa Clara County.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:36:18 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  well I've never dealt with an Indian person here (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          who wasn't fluent in English, and for all that I can think of Hindi was not their native tongue anyway.  I think for both of my instructors Telugu was.  That would've been an interesting class, if my school offered any Indian language other than Hindi.  I've been interested in going to India for perhaps more than just a trip, and I've been advised that in one of the areas I'm most interested in English would be more useful.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:51:52 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Santa Clara (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

          Along with Vietnamese, Chinese, Arabic, Urdu.  

          But Hindi: for almost any Indian who came to America as a tech worker, English is already a second language, as it is in India.

          But Spanish is the major second language.

          30% white, 30% Asian, 30% Hispanic

          From an exresident of Santa Clara County of 40 years

    •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      IllinoyedR also speaks some Spanish. Hit me up in PM and I'll help.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:30:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Im a lot better speaker of spanish than of english (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

      ask me about concrete cases. And I'm also a decent french speaker familiar with the french sounds.

      I can find for you little ads where the surname is rightly pronounced in spanish or french. And I can also tell you where is the strength. It would help you?

      •  Well, mainly I was hoping someone would (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        be familiar with how to write Spanish names in IPA.  For instance in English, vowels are elongated before a voiced consonant in the syllable coda (bit becomes bi:d) and I don't know what the rules are for vowel length in Spanish.  Everything else I can pretty much tell from listening, at least for the relatively simple transcriptions I'm doing.

        I don't foresee any other types of names being troublesome though, as there are relatively few who pronounce their name in the native accent.  I was surprised though to see a few Reps like Raul Ruiz pronounce their Spanish names in an American English accent, but that shouldn't have been too surprising given how relatively young he is.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 01:16:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I know not the IPA (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          But if you are able to write the fonetic forms from the sound, I can give you the right sounds (without ceceo or seseo or thigs like this).

          Also I can help you dividing the syllabes correctly, without mistakes, and signaling where is the accent in every word, also without mistakes.

          The link that you give me is curious. They include Ertzaintza and abertzale, that are basque word. The spanish has not the sound tz as a own sound.

  •  IL-2: Women Under 40 PAC endorses Hutchinson (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, MichaelNY, randomfacts

    I don't give people hell. I speak my mind and conservatives think it's hell.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 11:06:36 AM PST

    •  It seems rather amazing that someone (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, askew, MichaelNY

      with a 92% rating from the NRA is even in contention to represent one of the districts in a city with a skyrocketing murder rate from handguns.  That seems like an awfully handy cudgel for her opponents to use, but that's just how things appear to me 750 miles away.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 11:15:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Her district (SD-40) is quite suburban (3+ / 0-)

        Its base of population is Chicago Heights and Kankakee:
        media.apps.chicagotribune.com/legdistricts/final.html

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 11:29:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Right, but how does that compare to IL-02? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          and more specifically, the primary electorate of IL-02.  I'd be willing to bet it's far more urban than her senate district and I can't imagine urban residents of the south side of Chicago have a favorable opinion of the NRA.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 11:39:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  There isn't a "perfect" candidate in IL-2 (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

            Debbie Halvorson, Toi Hutchinson, Robin Kelly, Napoleon Harris, and Anthony Beale appear to be the front-runners for the Democratic nomination, which, barring a cash-in-the-freezer scenario, is tantamount to election. Kelly is the most ideologically-suited to IL-2 (which is why I endorsed her), but she's not that great of a campaigner. Hutchinson is pro-NRA, Halvorson is a White Democrat running in a Black-majority district, Harris is something of a celebrity (former college football player for Northwestern University), and Beale has ties to taxicab lobbyists.

            I don't give people hell. I speak my mind and conservatives think it's hell.

            by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:03:01 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well then it seems like Harris and Kelly (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DownstateDemocrat, JBraden, MichaelNY

              are the most liberal, though it remains to be seen how liberal Halvorson would vote since her old district was a marginal one.  Hutchinson just seems like her NRA ties should make her unacceptable here while Beale doesn't look that great either.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

              by sawolf on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:12:07 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Hutchinson's gun views (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sawolf, slothlax, gabjoh, MichaelNY

                I don't know too much about this race, but nothing on the gun control section of Hutchinson's issues page I found to be toxic

                Gun Safety

                The tragic events in Connecticut have caused many to reevaluate their positions on gun control, and I stand with Democrats like President Obama and Senator Durbin in calling for crucial reforms to protect our neighborhoods. Chicago and the communities around it suffer from some of the worst gun violence in the country, with over 1200 shootings in the city in the first six months of this year alone. Controlling the sale of guns and ensuring that they don’t fall into the wrong hands is a first step in fighting violent crimes that hurt families and cripples communities.

                We need to ban assault weapons, cop-killer bullets, high-capacity magazines, and high-caliber ammunition. We also need to take steps to close the gun-show loophole and ensure that those suffering from mental illness cannot purchase weapons.

                Now that the courts have struck down Illinois’s concealed carry laws, we need to take steps that empower local communities to create gun control procedures that protect their residents and prevent an unrestricted law. That means that if Cook County needs to ban concealed carry, then I firmly believe it should be allowed to do so.

                But we can’t keep addressing these challenges in silos. We must engage in all areas to get serious about reducing crime and giving our young people a reason to live. While gun safety is a critical step in cutting the cycle of violence that has plagued our communities, we must do much more to address the reasons for crime. Chicago Public Schools have an enrollment of over 400,000 students that are served by just 370 social workers. We need to hire more social workers to identify and help at-risk youth and invest in afterschool and gang intervention initiatives that give kids a constructive way to spend their time after class. In order to cut down on recidivism and create healthier communities, we must provide assistance to nonviolent felons who have paid their debt to society and are looking for work. A person who is working and can take care of themselves and their family isn’t the person wreaking havoc on our communities.

                LINK

                23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

                by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:27:58 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  I don't care if they're a bad campaigner (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, JBraden

              It's not like Republicans can win here. I think my order is:

              Kelly
              Harris
              Beale
              Halvorson
              Hutchison

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:37:52 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  Really, skyrocketing? (0+ / 0-)

        Do you have some statistics?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 04:50:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Considering Mark Sanford's history (8+ / 0-)

    I'm not willing to rule out the possibility that he has at least one son or daughter old enough to run for congress ;p

  •  Crit Luallen (9+ / 0-)

    That would be Senator Bennet on the phone.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 11:37:36 AM PST

    •  I don't know, my read on this is (7+ / 0-)

      that Crit has been pretty firm in the recent past that she wanted to run for governor, and if Conway is looking that way too, and they're allies, perhaps he'd be her running mate, and he's young enough that he would still have time to run in the future.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:16:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  My thoughts exactly. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, JBraden

      She'd be an excellent candidate, and we'd have a good chance of picking up KY and holding WV if we had Luallen and Natalie Tennant running for senate.

      Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

      by betelgeux on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:43:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Kentucky Bench. (6+ / 0-)

    There is not much good in having a strong bench if no one from said bench will actually challenge Mitch McConnell. McConnell got an easier ride in 2008 than he deserved too.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 11:42:21 AM PST

    •  Holding the governorship and state house (5+ / 0-)

      are still valuable in themselves though.  Having a good bench allows us to retain the former and through coattails and the veto threat the latter.

      You can just imagine Republicans passing all sorts of reactionary bullshit if they held the trifecta in the state, or even gerrymandering veto proof majorities like they did in neighboring Indiana (redistricting commission aside).

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 11:50:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  We don't want a situation (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden, betelgeux, slothlax, MichaelNY

        in which the entire bench gets into a primary fight for the governorship.  If I were dictator of the Kentucky Democratic Party I would make Jerry Abramson run for Governor, because he couldn't win any other office.  Then I'd make Crit Luallen get over herself and run for Senate.  And then I would force Ben Chandler to run for KY-06 again.

        •  Of course we don't (5+ / 0-)

          however I have to disagree with a few of these.  Abramson is easily not one of our best candidates to run statewide.  He was at 28/29 fav/unfav last time PPP polled.  Conway (38/31) or Grimes (29/15) would be much better candidates.

          For senate Beshear (51/34) is far and away our best candidate, but he won't run.  Either Conway or Luallen (43/21 from 2009) would be our best realistic options.

          For KY-06 I'm firmly of the belief now that Chandler's vote for Cap and Trade was what sunk him.  His coalition was much more similar to Obama's than the typical state Dem and he underperformed the worst in the counties with the most coal.  We should find a state legislator in the district to run, if not someone like Luallen herself.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:09:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Abramson is Jewish (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf, MichaelNY

            IIRC, and as a Jew myself I really don't think he'd be a realistic statewide candidate in a primarily Appalachian state.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:19:06 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  He is the most qualified (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, ArkDem14

              and is the only Dem. candidate with executive experience.

              Steve Beshear was the one who asked him to run with him in 2011; he was probably trying to give him a better platform on which to run for Gov. in 2015, and I assume Beshear would support him in that run.  (Beshear has also clashed at times with Jack Conway and Alison Lundergan Grimes, both of whom beat his "chosen" candidates in their respective Dem. primaries.)

              I agree that being a Jew and the perception that Abramson is a Louisville liberal could be a problem, and that's why I don't think he could win a Senate seat (where being liberal is more of an inhibiting factor).  Having Beshear's support will be helpful to Abramson though, and he's also extremely popular in Louisville Metro.

              I don't really like Jack Conway at all.  Grimes should challenge Rand Paul (or run for the open seat) in 2016.

              •  Another problem (5+ / 0-)

                is Abramson snubbed Fancy Farm early this year.  While most Dem statewide officials (except Grimes) decided not to go, they at least gave their regards.  Abramson said it was an outdated tradition.  Now, it probably is (it's a century old), but it's not like Virginia where the Shad Planking event has fallen into relative irrelevance (Tim Kaine snubbed it) due to the change in regional power in Virginia and that Shad Planking is the haunt of old South conservatives.  Fancy Farm is in the Jackson Purchase, a bluish, but swingy area for local Dems, making it important.

                Abramson, however, does have a unique strength.  As Beshear's running mate, Beshear won every single precinct in Jefferson County and all of the Republican-leaning counties surrounding it like Shelby and especially Oldham.

                Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:47:37 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

  •  SC-01: Don't forget how TOXIC Sanford is in SC (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, JBraden, slothlax, MichaelNY

    Sanford will get enough support to win the Republican party because the conservative base loves him - it's almost impossible to get further right than Sanford.  That's why the REPUBLICAN legislature tried to impeach him because he was too destructively conservative... "severely conservative" as Mitt Romney would say.  

    But among the entire voting block he is toxic.  His approvals last month were 30/53... but keep in mind this is not the general public in America, this is South Carolina.

    I'm not saying Sanford will go down easily but we should at least get a candidate here who can fight.  No Alvin Greenes or Gloria Tinubus.

  •  CO-03: ugh, were it not for (8+ / 0-)

    197 votes in HD-29 in 2010, Sal Pace would be in congress right now.  Republicans got so lucky they won the state house before a redistricting cycle.  Still, his performance against Tipton was quite pathetic as local Democrats typically run much closer to their statewide total in the 3rd than Obama did.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:32:34 PM PST

    •  The truth is, it wouldn't have mattered. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      There was no way to draw a district favorable enough, especially  considering how badly Pace lost.  The new 3rd was slightly bluer than the old one, and I don't think a Dem trifecta would have given us a much better map than the one we got.  Our best bet in Colorado is the new 6th.  Besides, the Republicans managed to get the slimmest of majorities in 1 chamber in 2010 and they blew it big time.  The Dems got a court drawn map which favored them and they took advantage of the Republicans' blunder on legislative reapportionment.  And re-took the state house in 2012.

      If you listen to fools, the Mob Rules

      by CO Democrat on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 09:16:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have to disagree with that (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY, jncca

        Drawing a 5-2 map is incredibly easy as long as Democrats were willing to draw the 3rd into south Colorado Springs.  If you do that you could easily draw a D+5 district without even drawing the north end into Boulder or Denver.  Then you can easily make the 6th about 60% Obama.  Pace lost by 12% in an R+5 district, there's no way he'd lose a D+5 seat.

        Here's one I drew that I could very easily see CO Dems gerrymandering:
        Photobucket
        Photobucket

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 09:24:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  awesome as that map is (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf, MichaelNY

          they could've done a much more mediocre job and still had us pick up a couple seats with smaller Dem leans than yours.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 09:28:03 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I totally agree, looking at opensecrets (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY

            and including outside spending, Tipton outspent Pace $3,940,527 to $2,725,050.  If the district had been say, D+1 or so you could easily see a combination of Dems pouring more money into it and Pace raising more himself, as our outside groups spent less than half of what Republican outside groups did.

            source here

            Which makes it all the more disappointing.  I think if we had controlled redistricting in Colorado we'd have locked that state down for the foreseeable future, barring another 2010 repeat and even then...

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 09:35:10 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  One thing.... (0+ / 0-)

          ...you have DIA in your 6th separate from the rest of Denver and one thing that's Sancronsanct is you don't separate Denver.

          If you listen to fools, the Mob Rules

          by CO Democrat on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 04:59:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  one thing that I think tends to eventually be (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf

            broken is the rule supposedly is sacrosanct.

            But I think his thinking was, if it's okay to take any part of it out, it's probably that part.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 07:28:24 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Nigel Wallace sets up SuperPAC for Hillary Clinton (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    I like his handwriting
    http://images.nictusa.com/...

  •  GOP IL State Chair woes (8+ / 0-)

    Seems like fellow conservatives aren't too happy with their party chair supporting Gay Marriage

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    Your move Log Cabin and GOP Proud.

    "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

    by lordpet8 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 12:47:54 PM PST

  •  OH-SEN (Mandel) (14+ / 0-)

    This is awesome, but why admit it?

    COLUMBUS — State Treasurer Josh Mandel wasn’t the Ohio Republican Party’s first choice to challenge incumbent U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Avon. He wasn’t even the party’s second choice, third or fourth. He was its seventh, Mandel told The Enquirer.

    Others asked whether they would run, and declining, included Attorney General Mike DeWine, who lost to Brown in 2006, Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, Secretary of State Jon Husted, R-Urbana, U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Urbana, a leader of the neo-conservatives in Congress, and former U.S. Steven C. LaTourette, R-Chagrin Falls, who chose not to seek re-election last year.

    Everyone else refused to run. The GOP’s first choice was U.S. Rep. Pat Tiberi, R-Westerville, who replaced John R. Kasich when he left Congress and entered the private sector before then becoming Ohio’s governor in 2010. Tiberi was rumored to be the replacement for U.S. Sen. Rob Portman, R-Terrace Park, if he had been selected to be presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s running mate and had the pair won. Kasich, Tiberi’s mentor, would have made the appointment. Of course, Portman wasn’t selected by Romney, who also didn’t win.

    •  Kasich is someone's mentor? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, MichaelNY

      I guess I forget prior to being OH-Guv his career looked pretty good on paper.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 01:56:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  his career still looks good (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        slothlax, dc1000, MichaelNY, VClib, SLDemocrat

        He's more likely than not to be a two termer at this point.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 02:06:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  To some extent (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, IndianaProgressive, MichaelNY

        If you read "Tell Newt To Shut Up" about the Gingrich revolution, Kasich comes off as one of the more sympathetic characters in the book. He was the Paul Ryan of his era, only he actually did include military spending in the overall cutting spending crusade, and he came off as sincere and modest for the most part. (This was noticeable in comparison with Gingrich, who was none of the above.) Who knew getting involved with FOX News could make a person crazy?

        I'd recommend the book, by the way. It stays tight with House Republicans, but Bill Clinton is a minor player in the book and his parts are totally awesome.

    •  Jordan isn't a neocon (0+ / 0-)

      but he is past the boundaries of what OH will accept. He'd have been a lot easier to attack than Mandel.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 05:36:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  When they go to Jim Jordan before you... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, KingofSpades
  •  Re Sam Wang and redistricting (5+ / 0-)

    some of you may remember a few weeks back how we into a heated debate with the writers at monkey cage over this very same topic.  I do like having an alternative statistics based approach to their perspective and my own, but at the end of the day I don't think Wang's approach adds much value to the debate because it's simply impossible to say whether gerrymandering or single member districts contributed more to Democrats winning a lower proportion of seats than their vote share if you don't have an alternative map to compare the real thing to.  It only tells us that Democrats got screwed by single member districts compared to proportional representation but can't explain how much of that was gerrymandering.

    In Pennsylvania in particular, you have both forces competing with each other as Dems are hyper-concentrated in places like Philadelphia, but are spread out enough in southwest PA or northeast PA that drawing a different map can make a huge difference.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 01:48:07 PM PST

  •  Yay Upstate! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, BeloitDem

    The only state on that Appalachian map that saw blue gains was New York.

    There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

    by slothlax on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 02:06:02 PM PST

  •  AR-GOV: For those of you thinking (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, jncca, MichaelNY

    the McDaniel crisis wasn't hurting him:

    PPP finds Hutchinson up by 13.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/... (PDF)

    •  It was vague speculation (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen

      based on what has been said (mostly by you, Jason T., and Mike Cook) and the lack of a second shoe dropping.  However, do you see this as attracting Mike Ross back in?  Before, he probably didn't want to face off against a real heavy hitter, but now there's an opening.  And I'm sure the state party would bury the hatchet  I'm still furious that this happens to a Democrat and hurts him, but DesJarlais and Vitter did far worse and are still around.  
      Also, a Democrats is to chair the Education committee next session, not bad.

      Anyway, the primary is 16 months off, it's not like there's no time to heal if need be.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 03:58:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Our committee assignments are really great (4+ / 0-)

        James McLean is Chair of Education, Tommy Wren is Chair of Insurance, Marshall Wright is Chair of Judiciary, Dave Fielding is chair of Cities and Counties and Larry Teague over in the Senate is joint chair of Budget. I'm not sure how we got such good committees, but hopefully the Beebe agenda can continue.

        The Democratic Party has really been hurt by the McDaniel scandal. McDaniel is friends with just about everyone personally, and a lot of people were really let down by this. I don't think the State Party really wants him as a nominee anymore. Mike Ross seems happy to be doing whatever he's doing. Bill Halter is seriously considering running, and I think I'd prefer Halter at this point (and I really can't stand him).

        We still have a decent shot at keeping AG next time, and hopefully Mark Malone enters the race to get rid of Mark Martin.

    •  Also, it should be noted (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that Hutchinson's involvement in the NRA police state proposal is giving people reservations.  Furthermore, he has slightly higher name rec than McDaniel (similar to poll he did showed).

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 03:59:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  A majority of people (0+ / 0-)

        have little or no reservations about it, according to the memo.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 04:31:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  61% say this raises doubts (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 04:40:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  In a question with four answers (0+ / 0-)

            I think it's best to group the categories into two distinct ones, similar to pushing leaners.  In that case, more people have no problem than have a problem.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 05:15:25 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  I'd say what's hurting him is the (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, MichaelNY, jncca, askew

      "Arkansas turning against state Democrats" crisis.

    •  I really wish that Halter drop his hat (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      in the ring and run for Gov. I know some people here think he was a one hit wonder. But the guy is relatively young, and has a future. He's the only one I believe who can hold this Governorship for Dems.

      McDaniel what a sleazy, bum ass politician. He knew he was  to run for Governor when Beebe became term limited. 4 years ago no one was thinking Beebe was going to be vulnerable, and McDaniel was likely to be elected as AG again. McDaniel would probably held this, but now has seriously hurt himself to a point where he can't win.

      He could keep his dick in his pants. Thanks alot you prick!

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 05:50:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  uh, wow (11+ / 0-)

    how often does a tiny Kentucky town in the middle of nowhere ban discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity? I think some of my faith in humanity just came back.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 04:15:43 PM PST

  •  LA-SEN/AR-SEN: Story on how Mark Pryor (7+ / 0-)

    and Mary Landrieu start off with a popular family name. Also, it notes that both Womack and Cotton are not interested in giving up safe House seats, but Cotton is more likely to answer the call to duty.

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

  •  question about the central valley of CA (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, GloFish

    is opposition to the environment the reason why the area (outside of pockets of Sacramento and Yolo counties) votes republican?

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 06:48:48 PM PST

    •  Its a very low turnout area (4+ / 0-)

      even the Republican districts held by Devin Nunes and Kevin McCarthy have pretty low turnout. Its far, far, far worse in the case of Costa and Valadao's districts. The abysmal turnout is due partly to large proportion of non-citizens in the region. Also a large number of California's prisons are located in the area and prisoners, of course, aren't allowed to vote. This is why, despite having high hispanic populations, the districts held by McCarthy and Nunes are reliably conservative.  (In addition, I have no proof of this but the hispanic population that lives in the Central Valley that do vote are probably more conservative than the hispanics who live in Lucille Roybal Allards and Xavier Becerra's districts). Anyway, low turnout always seems to favor Republicans.

      As you mentioned, environmental issues are a source of concern in the area. The water issue, which is a constant source of resentment in the Central Valley, weighs heavily for many. They feel they are being denied water (and thus a means to their livelihood by a bunch of Washington EPA bureaucrats more concerned with keeping alive a few small minnows than helping the local economy). The agricultural sector in the region, which is a fairly large employer, also is pretty conservative and constantly bangs the drums of the water fight and stokes fears in the region. Sean Hannity even did a live show in the area a few years ago blaming Democrats for denying people water!!  DiFi has made inroads with Big Ag, as has Costa, but most Democrats don't and many don't even try. One would think the horrendous air quality would be the bigger concern, but nope its the water tussle. I hate going to Bakersfield because I always feel as I leave that I just smoked a pack of nasty cigarettes!

      This is anecdotal, but, in addition, the white population in Fresno, Bakersfield and the surrounding areas came to the area via the deep south (Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas and so on), which explains, I think, somewhat, their conservatism.

    •  valley (4+ / 0-)

      Mostly agree with GloFish, ag is king in the valley and the GOP has recently been more friendly to the ag sector. It's also socially conservative, especially at the south end. The northern SJ valley is turning blue as more Hispanics are voting: Obama won San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, and Fresno counties.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 08:50:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  AZ-GOV: wow, Brewer will expand Medicaid (5+ / 0-)

    Didnt see that coming. She is only the third GOP gov to agree after Sandoval and Martinez.

    She is term limited right? I imagine that helped her make this decision.

    One irony on this? I believe Arizona was the last state to implement Medicaid.

  •  WI-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    Two important notes here, folks.

    First, DPW Communications Director Graeme Zielinski wrote this piece, using DPW Chairman Mike Tate's DailyKos account, about Lisa Thompson, a vice president for the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation ADMITTING that Scott Walker "sucks" and that the Walker Administration is "bad".

    Also, Paul Fanlund, an editor for The Capital Times, is actively vouching for Kevin Conroy or some other "business progressive" to run for Governor of Wisconsin in 2014. I don't know of any other "business progressives" that might even remotely consider a WI-Gov run outside of microbrewer Deb Carey and professional photographer Lori Compas, and, even then, those two would only consider a run if quite literally no other Democrat was interested in a run.

    I don't give people hell. I speak my mind and conservatives think it's hell.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 10:33:05 PM PST

  •  This week in crazy (6+ / 0-)

    Rep. Steve Stockman is threatening to file articles of impeachment against President Obama if Obama uses executive orders for gun control. Story here (warning: Daily Caller).

    Stockman warned that such executive orders would be “unconstitutional” and “infringe on our constitutionally-protected right to keep and bear arms.”

    “I will seek to thwart this action by any means necessary, including but not limited to eliminating funding for implementation, defunding the White House, and even filing articles of impeachment,” Stockman said in a statement. [...]

    The freshman congressman, who served one term in Congress in the mid-1990s, further labeled the possibility “an existential threat to this nation” because, he said, the purpose of the Second Amendment is to allow the people to protect themselves from tyranny.

    Pleeeeeeeeease run for Senate in 2014, Congressman. Your country needs you!

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 11:16:27 PM PST

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