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9:48 AM PT: WV-Sen: In an unsurprising move, Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller said on Friday that will not seek re-election in 2014, though he does intend to finish out his term. Rockefeller is 75 and would have been seeking his sixth term, in a state that's grown increasingly hostile to Democrats; West Virginia went for Mitt Romney 62-36 in the most recent election (making it Obama's fifth-worst state), and the president lost every single county.

But Rockefeller, too, had seemingly moved away from the political mainstream in his home state. Back in June, we took note of some extremely unusual remarks Rockefeller made on the Senate floor, castigating the coal industry for engaging in scare tactics over any attempts to regulate it. At the time, it seemed like a potential signal that Rocky was eyeing the exits—after all, you don't go after Big Coal when you're up against a very competitive race in a state where the demographics are racing away from you.

Whether that speech was a tell or not, GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito's early entry into the contest back in November certainly raised the stakes for Rockefeller, given that she's unquestionably the strongest Republican candidate in the state. In response to Capito's move, Rockefeller sounded pretty unenthusiastic about saddling up for still one more race, so Friday's news was not unexpected.

The real question, of course, is what Democrats do next. Despite West Virginia's move to the right, there's still a strong Democratic bench. What's more, given Rockefeller's attacks on coal (as well as his lack of fire in the belly), this could be a rare situation where Dems might be better off with a replacement instead of the incumbent. No matter what, though, you can bet that DSCC chair Michael Bennet is on the horn with potential recruits right now. Possible names include:

• ex-Sen. Carte Goodwin, who, as an appointee, briefly served out the final months of the late Robert Byrd's term in 2010;

• WV-03 Rep. Nick Rahall, who's already said he's interested and may be looking for an escape hatch considering he won re-election by just 54 percent last year;

• state House Speaker Rick Thompson, who unsuccessfully sought the Dem nomination for governor in 2011;

• Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (same);

• ex-Gov. Bob Wise;

• Supreme Court Justice Robin Davis;

• ex-state party chair Mike Callaghan, who has also expressed interest;

• and perhaps even current Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, though thanks to a special election, he had to run back-to-back races in 2011 and 2012 and may be ready for a breather.

Undoubtedly we'll hear a lot more on this front in the coming weeks. And note that if Rahall were to jump in, that would create an open seat in his 3rd Congressional District, which would be an extremely tough hold for Democrats given how red it is (it went for Romney 65-33). Moore Capito's House seat is, of course, also open, meaning we could see a lot of action in West Virginia this cycle—and we'll be there to cover it all.

11:00 AM PT: MA-Sen: Two notable developments in MA-Sen on Friday: First up, the League of Conservation Voters, which proved to be a big force in Senate races this past cycle with some $14 million in outside spending, has just endorsed Rep. Ed Markey in the Democratic primary. They thus become one of the first big-name third party groups to rally around Markey, as much of the Democratic establishment already has.

Relatedly, state Sen. Benjamin Downing, who had been considering a bid, announced that he would not run in the expected special election. Downing lacked name recognition, but he was the only notable potential candidate from the western half of the state, which could have aided him if several Boston-based candidates split the vote. But no one other than Markey has yet taken the plunge, and it would have been an uphill bankshot (woohoo! mixed metaphors!) for Downing even in the best of circumstances. In any event, Markey partisans have to consider this good news, as the field remains clear.

11:21 AM PT: NJ-Gov: I never really thought this was a possibility, so this news is no surprise: Dem Rep. Bill Pascrell has pretty definitively ruled out a challenge to Gov. Chris Christie in this year's gubernatorial contest. Pascrell said he finds the notion "intriguing" but added that he's "not pursuing that position." Cagey language, but it's January and the election is in November, so there's really negative zero time for dicking around. And considering that Pascrell just had to wage a serious battle in last year's redistricting-induced member-vs.-member primary against Steve Rothman, I tend to doubt he's interested in another bruising race so soon.

11:48 AM PT: NYC Mayor: EMILY's List is making a rare foray into local politics, endorsing New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn in the Democratic primary for mayor. It also marks the group's first-ever involvement in an NYC mayoral race, though it's not yet clear what, if any, material support EMILY will offer to Quinn.

11:57 AM PT: VA-Gov: Ah, I love it when a state's top law enforcement official advocates breaking the law:

Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, the presumptive GOP gubernatorial nominee and a rising national figure on the right, told an Iowa-based radio show Wednesday night that opponents of a federal mandate for contraception coverage should be willing to "go to jail" to fight the law. [...]

Cuccinelli recounted an exchange with his own bishop in which he counseled the cleric to embrace civil disobedience: "My local bishop said, 'Well, you know I told a group I'm ready to go to jail.' And I said, 'Bishop, don't take this personally: You need to go to jail.'"

Virginia's Republican convention, when Cuccinelli expects to be coronated as his party's gubernatorial nominee, is May 17 & 18. Let's just hope GOP power-brokers don't decide he's too toxic to be their standard-bearer before then. Actually, given how epically disastrous their attempts to shove Todd Akin aside were, maybe we should be rooting for just that....

12:22 PM PT: OH-Gov: While her name had been batted around a little bit in classic Great Mentioner style, ex-Rep. Betty Sutton now confirms that she is "seriously considering" a run against GOP Gov. John Kasich in 2014, though she did not offer a timetable for making a decision. Sutton served three terms in the House before redistricting pushed her into a member-vs.-member race against Republican Rep. Jim Renacci, in a district designed to be as friendly to Renacci as possible.

Sutton lost, 52-48, but in so doing ran several points ahead of the top of the ticket (Romney carried the district 53-45). Considering Obama won Ohio overall 51-48, that's not a bad showing. Still, Sutton doesn't have any name recognition outside of her home turf—but then again, with ex-Gov. Ted Strickland taking a pass on a rematch, none of the other potential Democratic candidates are particularly well-known either.

12:53 PM PT: WATN?: Political observers have long wondered what the Mack family would do if one of them left Congress. I'd seen rumormongers claim that ex-Rep. Mary Bono Mack "doesn't like serving and will move to be with her husband in Florida as soon as she's out of office." I'd also seen rumormongers claim that ex-Rep. Connie Mack "doesn't like serving and will move to be with his wife in California as soon as he's out of office." There never seemed to be any basis for either of these claims, but amusingly, both Macks' political careers are kaput, so will they wind up in the same state together? (Perhaps they'll split the difference: They also own a home in Colorado.) Who knows, but Mary Bono Mack is selling her place in Palm Springs, though she doesn't know where she'll wind up. However, she's quite certain about one thing: "I will never run for office again," she says in a new interview. Wonderful!

1:09 PM PT: TX-Gov: Attorney General Greg Abbott's legal career has been less than stellar, but hey, it's not like Gov. Rick Perry is any kind of leading light, right? So it's no surprise that Abbott thinks he can do Perry's job—which is why he's reportedly been telling donors he will indeed run for governor. Abbott's been gearing up for this for a long time, raising scads of money in preparation for a bid: He already has $14.5 million on hand, compared to just $3.4 mil for Perry.

For his part, Perry says he won't announce whether he'll seek another term until after the legislative session ends in June, and the Republican primary isn't until March of 2014. A poll conducted last year for Burnt Orange Report found Perry leading Abbott just 42-35, and I suspect Perry wouldn't fare as well this time as he did when he handily fended off ex-Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in 2010.

1:17 PM PT: PA-Gov: I never for a moment imagined that Attorney General-elect Kathleen Kane would run for governor in 2014, and what's more, she even pledged she wouldn't during the campaign. Now she's reiterating that promise, though perhaps somewhere down the line, she could prove to be a very attractive candidate for Democrats, particularly since she was the highest vote-getter statewide in Pennsylvania last year.

1:18 PM PT: P.S. Markey also nailed down two of Elizabeth Warren's top fundraisers, adding to what's already an area of strength for him.

1:30 PM PT: AR-Gov: Here's a new potential Republican contender for governor: incoming state House Speaker Davy Carter, whose party just won control of the legislature for the first time since 1874. Carter, like many state legislators, held a second job (in this case, with a bank), but he just left that position. Perhaps it's because of the new duties he expects to shoulder as speaker, or perhaps it's because he wants to free himself of any troublesome entanglements should he decide to seek the governor's mansion. Carter was decidedly vague in a statement, saying only that he is "completely focused on the legislative session."

2:03 PM PT: The latest Great Mentioner shiz:

Carte Goodwin: Reportedly says he "would be flattered to have his name mentioned."

Robin Davis: Says she "will think this through very thoroughly."

Natalie Tennant: Says she hasn't "ruled anything out."

Rick Thompson: His campaign consultant says "he's not interested in running."

Bob Wise: Says he "appreciate[s] even being mentioned" but "want[s] to stay involved" with his non-profit efforts on education.

A few other names percolating include ex-Gov. Gaston Caperton, state Sen. Jeff Kessler, and state Treasurer John Perdue, the latter two of whom were both 2011 gubernatorial candidates. Meanwhile, GOP Rep. David McKinley, who had previously held the door open to a possible run despite Capito's entrance, says he's still not ruling anything out, while the Senate Conservatives Fund insists that they're "not going to stop looking for a conservative challenger in this race until the primary is over." Er, fellas, it's okay if you quit your scavenger hunt at the filing deadline. Oh, no, wait: write-in!

2:15 PM PT: Meanwhile, it looks like PPP leaked the GOP primary portion of its recent gubernatorial poll to PoliticsPA, which has the scoop. Gov. Tom Corbett has a surprisingly weak 54-31 approval rating among members of his own party, and only 45 percent say they'd like to see him as their nominee, versus 37 percent who say "someone else."

In a hypothetical matchup against Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce Castor, who has openly said he's thinking about going after the incumbent, Corbett prevails 55-11. That might seem pretty good, but Castor's name recognition is negligible—and he also lost the 2004 AG primary to Corbett by just five points. I think a Castor challenge would be very serious business for Corbett.


2:27 PM PT: AK-Sen: This is an amazing pile of crazy. It starts off here:

Alaska Tea Party favorite Joe Miller wore a bulletproof vest the night he beat Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) to become the Republican Party's 2010 Senate nominee, his former private security guard told The Huffington Post.

"As we're finding out that he's winning, I'm in the bathroom putting a bulletproof vest on the guy," William Fulton said in one of several interviews this week. Describing Miller as "paranoid," Fulton said the underdog conservative was afraid he'd be targeted at election headquarters in Anchorage on that August night. "It was fucking ridiculous."

But it only gets better from there:
Fulton, as it turned out, was a federal informant at the same time he was providing security at events for the Miller campaign. Once members of an Alaska militia were arrested in a plot to kill law enforcement officials in March 2011, Fulton faded from view.
If you like reading about lunatic senatorial candidates, the militia movement, and guns guns guns, this piece is definitely for you.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Double-Breaking on the Twitters (12+ / 0-)

    1.  Rockefeller will not run for reelect for WV-SEN in 2014.
    2.  Cory Booker for Senate has filed with the FEC.

  •  Three seats already in real jeopardy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    WV, AK and SD.  And I'm not even counting MA.

    •  We all knew we were on defense (31+ / 0-)

      One thing I dislike about this forum is its reactionary nature. When something good happens, everyone thinks things are all puppies and candycanes for the Democrats. And when something negative happens, all of a sudden the sky is falling.

    •  I think AK is safer than it seems on paper (11+ / 0-)

      Begich seems to be an incumbent with depth and substance and he will likely run a strong campaign. The fact that he won so narrowly in 2008 shouldn't necessarily be seen as a sign of weakness but perhaps rather of strength, considering that he was running against an institution in Alaska who, despite his criminal convictions, was still always going to be near impossible to dislodge (this was his first really competitive race since he was appointed in 1968). Plus this is Palin's home state and the tea-party crazies have already shown their propensity to select right wing extremists here in national races.

      If Johnson goes for another term, I wouldn't completely rule out the Dems retaining SD either. Sure, Rounds is popular and a formidable challenger and Johnson is not in the best of health but if anything he's a fighter. He unseated a 17-year incumbent to get elected, he prevailed in a race where the Bush White House and the GOP threw everything at him in 2002 and he prevailed against a medical condition which was potentially fatal and went on to win a third term. If he does run, don't count him out

      WV -Capito has the edge but, as others have said, there is a wide Democratic bench and some very good talent out there. And Capito may also be primaried from the right and that could also impact on her chances of winning

      I'm not saying we have it in the bag or that we should become complacent -far from it. We need to be realistic. But neither should we be overly pessimistic about our prospects of retaining these seats

      •  Agreed on AK (5+ / 0-)

        Alaska is not a Republican state, it's a conservative one that relies on federal spending for a lot of its economy, so they value seniority and incumbents, and Begich fits the state well. And beyond Sean Parnell, the Republicans don't have much of a bench to take Begich on. Only Joe Miller has shown any interest, and he couldn't even defeat someone who wasn't on the ballot!

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:22:56 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  WV was in at least equal jeapordy WITH Rockefeller (7+ / 0-)

      There's a very realistic chance that our chances of holding WV increase with someone new.  There's hardly any chance our chances are worse.  Rockefeller wasn't in Blanche Lincoln's condition, not quite that bad, but he was in perhaps McCaskill's early condition.  Given that he's been in politics a very long time and is old, adn the state Dems have good candidates available to succeed him, he didn't have McCaskill's incentive to fight it out and hope Capito gets teabagged.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:24:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't know. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        It's pretty rare that an open seat is better for the incumbent party than an incumbent/challenger election.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:42:00 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's not that rare (10+ / 0-)

          Every personally unpopular incumbent worsens his/her party's chances compared to others who are personally popular or sometimes blank slates.

          It's just that unpopular incumbents usually run anyway, or their problems are partisan rather than personal so someone else doesn't necessarily help.

          But just in this young century we saved Senate seats by trading out incumbents in New Jersey (Lautenberg for Toricelli) and Connecticut (Blumenthal for Dodd).

          There are plenty of conservative Democratic alternatives in WV who haven't attacked coal or voted with the national party on almost everything like Rockefeller has.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:54:44 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  And that's not the first time (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, JBraden, MichaelNY

            Rockefeller got in trouble in the coal issue.  In 1972, when he was WV Sec of State, he ran for governor and called for an end to strip mining.  He then lost to GOP incumbent Arch Moore (Shelley's dad.)  Perhaps he was wary of history repeating itself, though it still could with another Dem candidate.  (Or in another state--Ashley Judd?)

            37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:04:09 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I think it's imperative that we pick the best (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden, MichaelNY

            Dem out there to run.

            Take Utah for example. Republicans were so worried about losing a house seat because of Merrill Cook's craziness, they defeated him in the primary. They believed an open seat would be easier for them to defend. But running computer tycoon Derek Smith, did little to help as Jim Matheson had already stolen the show. Matheson running on his popular name defeated the little known Smith easily in the 2000 election.

            Basically the Dems shouldn't run a Derek Smith kind of canidate here.

            "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

            by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:04:50 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  It's pretty rare, all things considered. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            There are lots and lots of Senate elections, and only a few examples of an incumbent retirement helping out the incumbent party.  We tend to focus on the exceptions more than the rule, I think. (On the other hand, West Virginia is an unusual state, and I don't know how many rules apply to it at all.)  

            Of course, the question is, which one was this?  Do we know how unpopular Rockefeller was? Do we have a sense of how much we can expect down-ballot popularity to translate to success seeking a federal office?

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:56:13 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  "All" Senate elections are not a valid sample (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JBraden, Chachy, MichaelNY

              We're talking about specific circumstances, where the incumbent is struggling and endangered.  That erases most Senate races up front, since most of them are incumbents who were never endangered.

              So the "lots and lots" of Senate elections you cite just don't count.

              Also, one can't really look at struggling incumbents who run for reelection and lose, since it's pure speculation who an alternative could've been.  The only exception to that I can think of was AR-Sen 2010, when we knew Halter was the alternative to Lincoln, but that's awfully rare that we can point to a specific individual.  So in all other cases, not knowing who the nominee would've been had a defeated incumbent instead retired, that's another batch of races that don't count for purposes of analysis.

              Then are the incumbents who retire with poor job approvals or otherwise a personal scandal, these are the cases that can be evaluated.  In a lot of these, the problem was partisan not personal, either a wave election or just a tough state for the incumbent's party.  The rest are the ones we're interested in.  And there are not "lots and lots" of those.  I don't know how many, but that we've come up with three examples in the young century just in one discussion thread defeats a claim that it's "rare" for an alternative to outperform an incumbent.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 01:08:58 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Chris Dodd (4+ / 0-)

          Is a good example. Jim Bunning is another. Perhaps we could include Perry for Texas Governor this cycle as well. I think Johnson in South Dakota is another example, but many disagree with me there. Those are just off the top of my head.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:12:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Dodd and Bunning definitely (6+ / 0-)

            but I don't see how Johnson isn't our best candidate.  The guy is pretty popular and SHS will have been out of office for 4 years and lost her last election.  Nobody else is going to function as anything other than generic Dem.  We could really use some polling here though.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:16:25 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Definitely Bunning, good memory there (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            R30A, markhanna, lordpet8, sawolf, MichaelNY

            Conway beats him, even in 2010.

            I don't think Johnson because there's no Dem bench there, he's not disliked at all himself, and his problems are entirely the "D" next to his name combined with Rounds' immense personal popularity which are problems any other Democrat would have (I suppose you could add Johnson's health as a problem, but if he runs it's because he thinks he can go full tilt so I wouldn't count it as an issue).

            I also wouldn't count Perry because I don't see who we have who could beat him.  Is he any more unpopular now than in 2010?  He was pretty unpopular then.  Your state, wwmiv, is just real tough for us...there's an absolute majority who want conservative electeds and Texas Dems aren't that so much anymore.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:22:43 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Very much agree (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        Rockefeller had moved too far left for this state. Tennant would be an exceptionally better candidate, as she's more conservative than he is. In any case, Moore-Capito could veyr well be teabagged.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:11:27 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I was not impressed (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, James Allen, bfen, abgin, MichaelNY

          With Tennant's showing in the 2011 special gubernatorial primary.

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:32:20 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The fuller record (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, abgin, MichaelNY

            2004: lost primary for SOS to 89 year old Ken Hechler. Hechler lost to Betty Ireland in November. Hechler is now 98 years old, and would be 99 if he runs for the Senate next year (He ran at 95 years old in 2010!).

            2008: Defeated two officeholders with a majority of the vote in the primary. Defeated Nigerian-American Charles Minimah by 31% (Somehow the WVGOP forgot to recruit anybody to hold a seat they had held, so Minimah, who lost two state delegate races by 2-1 margins, ran for the seat)

            2011: 3rd place. But did finish ahead of the State Treasurer.

            2012: Defeated a one-term state delegate by 25%. Finished ahead of the two statewides who've held office since the 90s (Perdue/Gainer) and other statewides.

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:46:20 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  My main concern is that it is getting harder (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            for Dems from the state level to win at the federal level.

            "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

            by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:06:37 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  that's why we should be thankful (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42, MichaelNY

      we won 2 seats this previous cycle.

      "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

      by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:59:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  We just have to keep from losing 6 seats (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, JBraden, MichaelNY

        Which I think is easily doable, and then 2010 is a wide open map for us.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:24:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  2016* (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, MichaelNY

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:25:05 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I wouldn't be so optimistic on 2016 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          pistolSO, MichaelNY

          If only because it is practically impossible to beat a scandal free incumbent when the incumbent party's presidential candidate wins the state.  This is sadly what I think will save Rand Paul's bacon, but he could end up being the next Larry Pressler.

          Still, I think Illinois is a gimme, Wisconsin is a pretty strong favorite to flip, and Pennsylvania gives us a great shot.  New Hampshire could be in play too, as would Arizona and Iowa if McCain and Grassley retire.  But picking off Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio will be difficult to impossible if we don't carry the states for president.

          Hopefully we get a strong presidential win and Republicans nominate a nut and we pick up 7-10 seats.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:32:39 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Capito may lose to a Tea Partier (9+ / 0-)

    She is pro choice and disliked by the Club for Growth.

    And I could see Tennant doing well in a general election.

    22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Hoping for Richard Cordray or Ted Strickland for OH-Gov 2014.

    by liberal intellectual on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 06:50:41 AM PST

  •  Natalie Tennant needs to run (9+ / 0-)

    She received the most votes on the ballot this year.  It is her second stint at Sec. of State.  We need to be competitive.  I think Tennant could hold it.  Moore-Capito's pro-choice stances will seriously damage her in the primary -- although Tennant is pro-choice herself.

    27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

    by IndyLiberal on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 06:54:31 AM PST

  •  People here should not be reacting like this (14+ / 0-)

    as if judgement day has come. This is not surprising at all. Jay Rock was one that people speculated will retire.

    My only ope is that Tennat runs. I thiink she the strongest Dem to hold that seat.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 07:01:24 AM PST

  •  Tennant likely wants Governor gig... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AussieforObama2ndterm

    I could see Carte Goodwin running for the Senate seat.  

    This race falls between Nebraska and North Dakota in the 2012 election cycle.  Likely lost, but not a sure loss.  

    President Obama would have been a Republican in the 1980's.

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 07:20:13 AM PST

    •  I don't see that (8+ / 0-)

      Fundamentally the state is not agricultural and reflexively Republican like Nebraska. It has the natural resouce thing going for it like North Dakota, but the Democrats have long been dominant at the state level and not just the congressional/senatorial level like North Dakota. I would put it somewhere between North Dakota 2012 and Nevada 2010.

      •  I think WV is unique in politics today (13+ / 0-)

        I think there's actually no state today or in recent cycles that compares to it.

        It's basically where some southern states were in the 80s, where the voters were appalled at Democratic Presidential candidates but fully embraced home-grown Democrats.

        WV voters share that partisan schizophrenia today, it's as if they're just 25 years behind their neighbors further south.

        I see all these attempted comparisons to states today and shake my head, because nothing really fits.  There just isn't another state that would give such a massive split in its Presidential and U.S. Senate voting as WV had last year, not even for a very popular state-level Democrat...that's one reason I tend to think that people like Beebe in Arkansas and Bredeson in Tennessee and Moore and Hood in Mississippi never run for U.S. Senate, they realize a lot of voters who like them still won't vote for them in Senate races.  ND was closest to WV in ticket-splitting but still nothing like WV.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:32:21 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  basically a two legged stool (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, MichaelNY

          there was a nice post about the state on 538, back in the election.

          Honestly I don't know how much longer the state will keep sending Dems to congress. The state will have to equalize eventually (either go back to voting for Dems for president, which I find unlikely, or begin voting R at the state level)

          "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

          by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:17:52 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, West Virginia really is alone (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, JBraden, MichaelNY

          Arkansas was the closest comparison but that divergence ended with 2010.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:20:18 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  So (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    Hope for a SMC vs McKinley primary so that we can have a shot at born of their CDs in 2014?

    Carte Goodwin probably loses to a SMC. But if they nominate some total nutter or John Raese then it'll be close. Goodwin loses because the unelected youngish moderate D kind of candidate has been losing federal elections repeatedly in the last few years. It's almost like a total lack of record doesn't help them out much at all

    And Tennant got the most votes and is in her 2nd term. I seem to recall a Senator retiring around this time in 2009 and the D nominee was a 2nd term SOS who just finished with 60% of the vote. It didn't go well. The reason why Secretary of States can win big is that the job really doesn't lend itself to controversy and doesn't really produce a record of impressive achievements.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 07:29:43 AM PST

    •  Both (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      iPhone failed me.

      WV2 is more realistic but there'd be potential for 3-0 if the skies align

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 07:31:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  You're talking about Robin Carnahan (3+ / 0-)

      but I don't see what that '10 Senate race in Missouri has to do with this race in West Virginia. Carnahan despite her famous name, did not run a good campaign.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 08:21:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Talking more of the lead up (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JGibson, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        Tennant is being talked about as a strong D based purely off of her 2012 vote total when her job is noncontroversial. The exact same situation as Carnahan.

        So Tennant, who finished 3rd in a primary for Governor in 2011 is really a strong bet to hold the seat?

        WV has a lot of D officials but the Rs will have to blow it to give a D a better than 50% chance

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 08:30:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sec of State isn't always noncontroversial (6+ / 0-)

          Katherine Harris, anyone?

          OTOH, it's usually more of a functionary job than a real policymaking one; I personally am not entirely convinced that it has to be elected, or partisan (where I live the governor appoints the SOS.)  It's a good resume item, but for it to be a real springboard for US Senate or something higher it probably needs to be coupled with good personal or campaign skills and demonstrable achievements in either making it or other parts of state gov't work better and producing results for voters, or some other sort of widely recognized connection with the electorate.  Which Natalie Tennant may well have; we'll find out if she runs.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 08:38:52 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  If someone is malicious enough (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, lordpet8, MichaelNY

            They could cause controversy in any office.

            But with a D legislature and a D governor, not really an opening to do anything too controversial.

            At least Tennants case is better than whatever the Cartr Goodwin case is. But maybe I missed the glory of Carte's 4 months as a Senator

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 08:53:00 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Carte's case (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Is at least in part (I don't know all of it) that he's seen as extremely smart, a safe pair of hands, reasonably appealing, and he'd seem to be someone who could unite many powerful parts of the D base, whether you are talking ideology or senior powers in the party (he was Manchin's counsel, his wife is Rockefeller's state director, and he comes from an extremely prominent family).

              A lot of people in Charleston have issues with Tennant (who I like a lot) because of her office's handling of the succession law after Sen. Byrd died.

              •  so it's relatively close to a Hayden Rogers case (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                lordpet8, MichaelNY

                with a resume that looks pretty solid, employment under the influential Dems in the area, and no elected experience?

                It just seems like the recent electoral record of Ds with that sort of record is kind of lousy. I guess Goodwin could have a good case for a WV2, but there's probably a few good Ds in that area who could win that seat.

                As for the whole succession and having to hold 7 statewide elections in the span of 30 months.. yeah, a lot of that might just be the realities of the laws they were working with.

                Tennant does have a strong case with the election results lobby i'm sure since the results going back to 1950 were posted on her site during the time she's been in office. [Not sure if they ever resolved the quirks of how some of their source documents listed McDowell County in a weird place alphabetically (forget if they listed it before or after the Ms) but they just entered the numbers as if it was in order, leading to some swapped numbers.]. Least interesting lobby ever.

                The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                by RBH on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:28:08 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Not that people vote on this issue (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                But seniority in the Senate is often very helpful to Senators of small states.  Goodwin could build up a ton of seniority over a long career though, certainly more than Tennant or SMC could.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:40:14 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Carte Goodwin (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              BeloitDem, lordpet8, JBraden, sawolf, MichaelNY

              was Joe Manchin's chief counsel as governor, has been a federal law/judicial clerk, and has headed several commissions (including a US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, to which Harry Reid appointed him after he left the Senate.)  Goodwin's wife is Rockefeller's state director.

              While evidently well-esteemed by WV Dems, though, Goodwin has never held or sought elected office on his own; the case for him is apparently that Manchin and Rockefeller know and trust him and he would be like them if elected.  But he would need more than that to make it through a competitive primary and general election.

              Incidentally, Goodwin (born in February 1974), is the youngest ex-Senator, and is indeed younger than anyone in the Senate now.

              37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

              by Mike in MD on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:10:40 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  On the subject of Rockefeller's retirement... (7+ / 0-)

    I think this is kinda funny.

    At 8 am this morning, Abby Livingston from Roll Call posted an article about how Rockefeller may not be able to win re-election if he seeks it.

    Clearly a little blindsided by Rockefeller's decision to NOT seek re-election.

    18, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF sophomore, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

    by tqycolumbia on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 07:35:40 AM PST

  •  The front paged WV-Sen post is unbearable (15+ / 0-)

    If you think DKErs are gloom and doomy, regular Kossacks are ten times worse.

  •  Remember when ND Sen was safe R last cycle? (8+ / 0-)

    Lets wait and see before we jump the gun on this one. I'm not saying it couldn't end up a sure loss, but it is too early to tell.

    •  anyone who had it safe R doesn't know ND (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, MichaelNY

      An ND race is only safe R when you have a popular Republican running against a non-incumbent Dem. Otherwise, it depends on who's running and how well they campaign. The Dem floor there is about 15, the GOP floor about 30. Anyone familiar with Heitkamp would have known that she would not be a pushover.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:01:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I disagree on ND, we threaded a needle there (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        markhanna, dc1000, drhoosierdem

        We had the good fortune of a few longtime popular individuals holding down seats for us in ND for the past generation while the state's voters nevertheless soured on national Dems the same as in other conservative states.

        Heitkamp allowed us to continue that trend, but make no mistake we threaded a needle in that one.  She's really our last "popular individual" left who can overcome the "D" next to her name, there are really no others and we really just delayed the inevitable in ND.

        Your description of ND is actually a good description of WV, where there are plenty of conservative Democrats on the bench the state's conservative voters will happily vote for in spite of their dislike of the national party.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:37:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Never thought that after we got Heitkamp (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, JBraden, MichaelNY

      I maintained a very solid tossup rating the entire cycle.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:13:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I guess Cory Booker's running for Senate (5+ / 0-)

    http://images.nictusa.com/...
    Is this old news?

  •  WV (7+ / 0-)

    RRH reports that Rahall is seriously interested according to some tweets.

  •  West Virginia (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, lordpet8, JBraden, gabjoh, MichaelNY

    Rockefeller's retirement is a real blow of course.  But you have to wonder if an open Senate seat might not encourage the Tea Party to challenge Capito in the Republican primary.  They were openly mulling a challenge before Rockefeller's retirement, now it might be irresistible.  A McKinley - Capito mash-up might be just what the Democrats need.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:04:07 AM PST

  •  In b4 SUE THORN FOR SENATE!!!!!!1shift!!!! (8+ / 0-)

    :p

  •  I think this accurately describes the front page.. (13+ / 0-)

    (and yes, I like to post this picture whenever I get the chance)

    Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

    by NMLib on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:17:02 AM PST

  •  Update on NY State Senate 46th race (8+ / 0-)

    Besides the usual legal maneuvering (GOPer who lost is appealing, vote count on hold for a few days), we learn that 85 of the 99 votes that may be counted were challenged by Republicans. The lopsided margin Tkaczyk needs to pull this out is extremely plausible.

    http://www.recordonline.com/...

    (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

    by TrueBlueDem on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:22:09 AM PST

    •  Reminds me of MN-Sen: 2008 (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, TrueBlueDem, MichaelNY, R30A

      when Coleman was up for almost all the counting, until the hundreds of challenged ballots were reviewed, which Coleman's team had been more aggressive in challenging.  Surprise, surprise, Franken won a large majority of them.

      I can very easily see Tkaczyk getting the 69 votes out of 99 she would need to take the lead, if this is anything like the Minnesota race.

  •  Can a Dem win WV2 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    If SMC runs?

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:30:15 AM PST

    •  in theory, sure (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, lordpet8, JBraden, MichaelNY

      i'd imagine a D could get a strong enough percentage in Kanawha to make the rest of the district more winnable. Especially if there's a geographic split where the R isn't from Kanawha (such as recent admittee to the WV Bar/WV Attorney General Patrick Morrisey).

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:37:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think some wanted Carte Goodwin to run here (5+ / 0-)

      I wonder if he might, given that SMC is leaving the seat. It would be a tough race, but he would be a good candidate.

    •  It's the bluest seat in the state (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, pistolSO, MichaelNY

      Due to the presence of Charleston. And WV-01 has Morgantown (WVU). WV-03 is actually the reddest of the three seats by 2012 numbers.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:33:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm sorry if I'm flogging a dead horse with this (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, JBraden, gabjoh, MichaelNY

        but you should totally ignore Obama's numbers when trying to gauge the blueness of West Virginia's seats.  WV-02 is where all of the downballot Republicans do best while WV-03 is where all of the downballot Democrats do best, at least on average but for most races this is the case individually.  This is for both state and federal offices.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:38:14 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Do you think WV-02 is going to be winnable (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          If SMC is at the top of the ticket?

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:45:51 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Winnable? Yes, but not likely by any means (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden, MichaelNY, GoUBears

            As I mentioned elsewhere in the thread, Republicans have practically no bench as anyone who looks appealing to run here was just elected two months ago.

            Right now I have it as tossup/Tilt R (though Lean R is reasonable too) assuming we get a 1st tier candidate and Republicans run a 2nd tier one.  However, I think if Capito loses the primary then our odds of picking it up increase considerably if not making us favored.

            West Virginia this cycle is starting to remind me a bit of Delaware 2010.  Yes Castle likely would have won, but it wouldn't have been any more than mid to high single digits.  Them teabagging him created a Dem wave in the state that allowed us to keep the trifecta, actually expand our House majority, and almost lead to us knocking off longtime Auditor Tom Wagner.  I think if Republicans teabag Capito with someone like Raese we'll see a state level wave where we pick up WV-02 and hold steady in the legislature.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:52:29 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  One must take into account local vs federal (6+ / 0-)

          but I don't think we should totally ignore Obama's numbers.  There is a strong pattern of a collapse in presidential numbers leading to a weakening of that party's chances in an area, even if they are locally and historically strong there.  For one such example: Democrats used to dominate East Oklahoma, but it rapidly shifted away from our nominees for president (Clinton carried it handily both times, Gore lost it by 5, Kerry lost it by 18, Obama by 32, and then by 36 this year).  Local Democrats maintained strength, but when the congressional seat was open this year, it wasn't even close, and we lost by 19 points.  That was almost as close as the margin we got against incumbent Rep. Lankford of OK-05 (21 points) with a Some Dude.  Turns out that Oklahoma City-based district was Obama's best in the entire state.

          I think down the road that we will find even local Democrats doing better in the metropolitan areas of Oklahoma, and comparatively worse in East OK.  In the same way, I think a realignment is due to come in West Virginia in which downballot Republicans will find themselves starting to do better and better in the coal-country WV-03, and comparatively not as strong as in the Charleston-based WV-02.  I think the same thing is happening in Kentucky where the coal counties in the east will soon start to turn on even local Democrats, and we will find ourselves only winning Louisville and Lexington (and Elliott County, lol).

          •  So long as the county bearing my name... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Still votes for Democrats, I'm happy. Now if they'd take away that extra "t" I'd be very happy.

            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

            by NMLib on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 05:05:32 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  No you're entirely missing my point (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje, MichaelNY, jncca

            I meant that you should ignore Obama's numbers for comparing districts within the state.  The same holds true for states like Oklahoma where we do considerably better than Obama in eastern Oklahoma while not running far ahead if at all in places like Tulsa.

            Sure, the overall decline statewide can indicate a bad trend for Democrats, that I don't necessarily disagree with, but Appalachia is a terrible place to use Obama's numbers as a metric of Democratic support compared to other districts in the region.  Your point about coal regions has failed when examining the recent statewide elections in both Kentucky and West Virginia.  The coal producing regions are Dems' best regions, even compared to very urban/suburban counties like Jefferson and Lexington Kentucky.  Yes, you can definitely look at a Democrat who supports cap and trade like Obama and Ben Chandler and they get destroyed in coal regions, but everyone else who is pro-coal does very well (aside from the non-unionized southeast-central part of Kentucky; that's been Republican since the Civil War).

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 05:18:35 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Oh and furthermore about Oklahoma (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje, MichaelNY

            just looking at two party vote, our OK-02 nominee ran 6-8% ahead of Obama while our OK-01 and OK-05 nominees ran 0-2% behind Obama.  This is the point I was trying to illustrate.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 05:20:24 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  There's no "if" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, GoUBears

      She's in. Formally, completely. When she announced, we wrote about a ton of potential competitors on both sides, if you want to check the tags.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 02:28:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Holy shit, the front pagers are driving me nuts (14+ / 0-)

    West Virginia is a dark blue state at the state level.  Nothing about it is red, absolutely nothing.  The state has the longest streak of any state of electing Democrats; the last time a Republican won was 1956 thanks to Ike's coattails.

    Plus, after bashing King Coal and already having middling approvals, I think we're better off without Rockefeller (the same can't be said of Tim Johnson).  This is good news everybody!

    As long as we don't run Rahall or a liberal, this seat is a tossup.  If Capito loses the primary then we hold it plain and simple.  Tennant and Kessler are probably our best candidates.  Additionally, we're in a great position to pick up WV-02 since the Republican bench is... nobody.  Patrick Morrisey is a carpetbagger and was just elected AG in a bit of a squeaker over ethically damaged Darrell McGraw.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:48:16 AM PST

    •  Agree except for two things (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, dc1000, lordpet8, JBraden, MichaelNY, GoUBears

      It's probably going too far to say "If Capito loses the primary we hold it plain and simple." It's possible to see a good conservative candidate beat Capito and then go on to win the general. But a Capito loss definitely makes it much more likely we hold it.

      Also, I think if Capito wins, she would be the favorite. It wouldn't be Safe Republican by an stretch, however.

    •  I feel that way daily. :) (0+ / 0-)
    •  with the exception of (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      WV-01 and WV-02.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:19:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Those aren't red by default though (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden, MichaelNY

        which is what I meant.  McKinley barely won in 2010 after Oliverio knocked off the incumbent in a somewhat divisive primary.  Capito only first won because of her father and would have been vulnerable in 2006 and 2008 had we made a much stronger effort (same with PA-18, which was actually bluer than the district Jason Altmire won).

        For example, the districts' (rounded) partisan averages compared to the state were all pretty close:
        WV-01 - R+1
        WV-02 - R+2
        WV-03 - D+4

        It isn't like southern states with large minority populations where you'll have one district 15% more Dem than the neighboring one without even gerrymandering it.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:24:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  hehe best to avoid the FP for awhile (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, MichaelNY

      they way they're talking you'd think that either Pryor or Landrieu had announced retirement. Now those are two states where our bench has been whittled down (but not WV ofcourse)

      "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

      by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:32:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Another thing to consider (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

    in regards to "Capito could lose a primary"

    Very easy qualifications to make it on the ballot in WV. You only have to fill out forms and a fee of $1740.

    10 candidates in 2011. 6 in 2006. Contested R Senate primaries almost every year since 1978. So if you have a larger field, anti-Capito votes split and make it easier for her to get through.

    O'Donnell, Miller and Mourdock won 1 on 1 primaries. Only Akin got through in a large field ($100 fee to file in Missouri), and there you could argue that there wasn't exactly an establishment/tea party split, but a split between very conservative candidates.

    (unrelated: I love the "Candidate Name Pronunciation Form" on the WV page)

    Is it kind of contradictory to argue that the WVGOP is weak while also arguing that they'd be organized enough to whack their most electable candidate?

    and SMC is not pro-choice, unless pro-choice means voting for every Republican bill on abortion without constantly saying you're pro-life.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:54:14 AM PST

    •  quote (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY
      Is it kind of contradictory to argue that the WVGOP is weak while also arguing that they'd be organized enough to whack their most electable candidate?
      That's not the argument, though.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:22:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  i'm seeing that sort of argument (0+ / 0-)

        the "small electorate is gonna doom SMC" stuff

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:29:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  no, because the argument I've seen is not that (8+ / 0-)

          the state party may take her down, but teabaggers and outside groups.  And in fact the weakness of the state party may make it easier for outsiders to topple her.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:33:12 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  like the outside groups did win in WV? (0+ / 0-)

            you can't just make a campaign pop out of a can (especially not for the so-called tea partiers who have the hearts of a lower and lower percentage of voters every month). There'll be more than one non-Capito on the ballot. If she's possibly at risk, their vote splitting is going to undermine their efforts.

            This isn't a Betty Ireland thing where Ireland had won one election ever (over an opponent who was 89).

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:58:43 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  "can't just make a campaign pop out of a can" (5+ / 0-)

              so far as primaries are concerned, tell that to Christine O'Donnell.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 01:13:32 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  you mean the O'Donnell who ran 2 times before 2010 (0+ / 0-)

                strange how she managed to have Rs who supported her after she had run in the primary in 2006 and was the R nominee in 2008. Just came out of nowhere

                The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                by RBH on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 01:43:52 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yes, she came out of nowhere. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, GoUBears

                  She was an also-ran until the last few weeks of the race.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 02:56:55 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  In unwinnable races... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, GoUBears

                  I could have probably moved to Delaware, said I'm a member of the Republican Party, and if no one else ran, would have been nominated by the Republicans.

                  Yes, she came out of nowhere, she's less than third-tier, she's who you get when no one else is willing to run. Republicans didn't care in 2006 or 2008 because they had no chance of victory in either year there.

                  That she was nominated means absolutely nothing to me.

                  Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                  by NMLib on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 05:12:50 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  But you're just making that up, it's not true (8+ / 0-)

              Why should there be a split field?  There could be, or there might not be...there could be just one teabagger.  Or there could be a split field but one teabagger dominates.

              You seem to be merely assuming Capito skates through like Coats in Indiana in 2010, but she just as easily could go down in a split field like Lowden in Nevada that same year.

              We have no idea what will happen in the primary.  It's fair to point out the teabaggers could be split and kill their chances that way.  But that's pure speculation, what matters now is realizing Capito is at severe risk of losing a primary.

              And you're wrong that candidates don't just pop out of thin air.  Yes they do, and they win.  Angle just popped out of thin air.  So did Christine O'Donnell.  And Joe Miller.  Todd Akin was a Congressman, but he was practically a Some Dude because he doesn't take fundraising seriously and he never had a serious campaign organization...and he trailed in ALL polls right up to the primary, there was not a single poll showing him winning like that even though some polls did reveal his late surge.

              That's the thing about the teabaggers, they really do pop up out of nowhere and take down giants.  They've done that the past couple cycles.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 01:26:25 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  addressed COD (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                JGibson, MichaelNY

                Angle had been in elective office and even had come within 500 votes of a Congressional nomination. Akin was a split field where the two 'main' candidates nuking each other pushed him across more than any other factor, even Claire's ad.

                Joe Miller was a one-on-one primary. If even some random dude off the streets were the 3rd wheel in that primary, Murkowski defeats Miller. Miller would be the best example, if it were advisable to compare Alaska to anything.

                Coats 2010 would be one side of the possibilities (even if Indiana isn't exactly an easy place to make a primary ballot). The other possibility is a situation like Blunt's 2010 primary where people thought there could be some sort of challenger, then the challenge just had no oxygen whatsoever and Blunt won 114 counties.

                The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                by RBH on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 01:53:08 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  SMC isn't pro-choice in actuality (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, JBraden, MichaelNY

      But she's still a "pro-choice Republican" by national journalistic standards. Which would kill her in primary.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:35:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Another day, another Republican decides to (9+ / 0-)

    shove his foot as far down his throat as possible with regards to rape.

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Phil Gingrey: Todd Akin partly right on legitimate rape.  What a doofus.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 09:58:21 AM PST

  •  This what Dems should do from now on... (7+ / 0-)

    grill every Republican on abortion, and watch the campaign implode.  They all believe what Akin, Mourdock and now this fool from Georgia just said. The only problem with Akin and Mourdock is that they were not supposed to say it out loud.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:16:16 AM PST

  •  Comments on NJ-Sen (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, JBraden, gabjoh, MichaelNY

    I thought I'd give my opinion on both big Senate race news stories today. With regard to NJ-Sen, I'm pretty disappointed that Booker has chosen to do this. I was once a very big believer in Booker as a great person for our party, but ever since his Bain breakdown last year, I've become more troubled with him as time goes on. More and more, I feel like I can't trust him to be an unwaveringly progressive voice like Lautenberg. I'm just as concerned about a Christie appointment as the next guy, but I really don't appreciate how Booker is trying to shove Lautenberg out of his way so that he can have his time in the limelight with a national platform. It comes across as self-serving and borderline disrespectful to the work Lautenberg has done for New Jersey and our country, in my opinion. I don't think I can support Booker in the primary at this point. I still would have been highly skeptical of Booker even if Lautenberg had retired before this announcement, but this just gives me further reason for concern.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:23:57 AM PST

    •  It's an imperfect situation (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drhoosierdem, dc1000, JBraden, MichaelNY

      But don't you just get the feeling that lautenberg is going to leave Dems hanging when the clock runs out.  I mean you run or not, and he still hasn'said.  how much wavy gravy does he get.

      he could have set himself a timetable and adhered to it like some have done (I think Strickland in OH-Guv did this), but I don't even think he did that.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:29:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agree. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, MichaelNY

        Booker has not handled this perfectly but neither has Lautenberg. It isn't fair to cast all the blame in Booker's direction.

      •  Retirement (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, bumiputera, MichaelNY

        I'm not sure why Lautenberg is receiving such heavy pressure to say whether he's running or not when others in similar situations haven't said so. Tim Johnson, Tom Harkin, and Carl Levin still haven't announced their plans, but I don't see anyone forcing them to make immediate plans. I think Lautenberg cares very much about Democrats doing their very best in elections, and I don't think he wants to screw the state party over. That's why he came out of retirement in the first place. However, I also thinks he cares very deeply about progressive policy, and I bet he views Booker very skeptically. Between Booker being squishy on policy and trying to shove Lautenberg out of office so that he can be in the limelight, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Lautenberg is emboldened to run for re-election.

        Please recall that it's only January 11th of 2013. By this point in the last cycle, no retirements had yet been announced. Here's how retirements timed up in the last cycle:

        Kay Bailey Hutchison: 01/13/11
        Kent Conrad: 01/18/11
        Joe Lieberman: 01/19/11
        Jim Webb: 02/09/11
        Jon Kyl: 02/10/11
        Jeff Bingaman: 02/18/11
        Daniel Akaka: 03/02/11
        Herb Kohl: 05/13/11
        Ben Nelson: 12/27/11
        Olympia Snowe: 02/28/12
        Other than Nelson and Snowe (and even Nelson is a bit debatable), nobody thinks the other retiring Senators took too long to make their decisions in retrospect. I'm not sure why Lautenberg is being held to a different standard here. I don't think Lautenberg should wait until the primary next year to make up his mind, but I think he's fairly entitled to a few months to decide what he wants to do. He has the right to make that decision.

        The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

        by AndySonSon on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:11:19 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's pretty simple (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dc1000, sacman701, JBraden, MichaelNY

          Lautenberg is 100 million years old in a blue state governed by a Republican.  He also has an ambitious challenger who's announced and there's already polling opushing him out the door.

          It's a different standard because he differs from the people in your list by medium to large amounts.

          That being said, I'm more annoyed that he isn't responding as than i am that booker is entering a primary.  I'm not too concerned about the general with either one, but 1 is running and 1 is undecided.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:18:14 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  sorta like how R's felt with Strom Thurmond (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            but they weren't even as lucky as we are today. Back in 1996 when Thurmond ran for his final term the SC still had an R governor. But few foresaw the Dems winning the governorship in 1998. Still Thurmond managed to serve out his term.

            "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

            by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:54:45 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Welcome To New Jersey (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rdw72777, MichaelNY, GoUBears

      Unfortunately thats how politics work up here. "It's what can you do for me now". Lets remember why Lautenberg became a Senator again. 10, 11 years ago Torrecelli was gonna coast to re-election, but had a big scandal which just eroded his chance for a 2nd term. I mean the floor crumbled under his campaign feet. Then they called on Lautenberg who retired just from the previous cycle to hold this seat down, and he did with ease.

      I do feel sorry for him now on how he's is being treated, you would think that his years of service to the state, he should get a standing ovation and a coronation. That what he wants, and thats what he should get from the state party. But he should also be realistic and comes to terms that his time has gone, and as well as face reality. His age is a HUGE factor, the Republican Governor of the state is looking considerably more likely to get re-elected, compared to a year ago around this time. When he was well below 50, with a too close for comfort lead in the polls against the same matchups. Lautenberg does not hold any chairmanship position like his junior colleague does. Plus his seniority was not given back to him from his first stint in the senate.
      So what's the point of running for reelection again?

      After seeing Booker's quasi meltdown on MTP, when he was defending Bain to whatever extent, I don't think that highly of him than I did prior to that. I wish Buono would run for the senate instead of the governorship, cause she's more progressive than Booker. As well as Pallone, who I feel sorry for, because he's been patiently waiting, biding his time, with grace I might add to make his run for the U.S. Senate. To see a ambitious limelight seeker like Booker blow up his spot I can imagine make him quite pissed.
       

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:56:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Your second paragraph (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BKGyptian89, MichaelNY
        I do feel sorry for him now on how he's is being treated, you would think that his years of service to the state, he should get a standing ovation and a coronation. That what he wants, and thats what he should get from the state party.
        This is spot on.  the problem is, for someone who has represented NJ for so long, he seems to not understand this simply isn't how NJ works.  And that makes his silence even more confounding.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:03:48 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  unlike you (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, lordpet8, gabjoh, MichaelNY, GoUBears

      I've never been a fan of Booker's, I've always been skeptical of him, and I still don't trust him.  I would be fine with Lautenberg staying as long as he wanted if either NJ had a Dem governor or had a law that any interim appointment had to be of the same party.  He's a more reliable Democrat.  He is, though, starting to sound a little like Pete Stark in his reactions to Booker's challenge.  But we just can't take the risk.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:30:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Comments on WV-Sen (4+ / 0-)

    I thought I would offer some comments on WV-Sen (I apologize if this comes across as long-winded; I condensed my thoughts where I could). I view this retirement the same way I viewed Herb Kohl's retirement. I'm sad that he won't be continuing his service, particularly considering that he was a relatively progressive voice for his state. However, he's carried his load for the party, spending his vast sums of personal wealth to hold down his Senate seat very easily over the last few decades. After everything he's done for us, I think he's entitled to this decision (especially at the ripe age of 75).

    Without any knowledge of how the Republican primary will play out, and without any knowledge of who might become a Democratic candidate, I would tentatively place this race at Leans R with the likelihood of moving it to Tossup once we learn more. I don't think the potential for a Republican primary can be underestimated. The Club for Growth certainly doesn't seem warm to her, and they're not a group to be trifled with. You can ask Dick Lugar how well that worked for him. I don't believe Earl Ray Tomblin will be a candidate, and I'm fine with that. He's finally getting settled down from a ton of campaigning the last few years, and I think we have more progressive choices anyway. I think we're better off running Carte Goodwin in WV-02 because he doesn't have any elected experience yet, and I'm not comfortable running a relative novice against the strongest Republican candidate in the state in its biggest election in a long time.

    I think our two major choices are Natalie Tennant and Nick Rahall, in that order. Tennant is young and could probably offer the most vigorous campaign of any Democratic candidate. She would probably be a reasonably progressive Senator for West Virginia, and she could probably hold the seat for a long time considering her age. I think Rahall would also be a good option. He has stood with House leadership whenever they have needed his vote on almost any important legislation, and I think he would function in the same capacity in the Senate. The only concern is that he's 63, not too much younger than what Jay Rockefeller is now. At the very least, he would bring with him decades of valuable government experience for a state that will have lost a massive amount of seniority and experience in just five years. I think both of them would work.

    I'm honestly getting very tired of the concern trolling. I know some people mean well, but it doesn't do us any good to have a panic attack every time supposed bad news comes out for our party. Rather than participating in panic and resignation, we need to prepare and put our best foot foward given the situation we have to work with. That's how politics has always worked and will always work.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:29:48 AM PST

  •  League of Conservation Voters scared Brown enough (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skibum59, MichaelNY

    to be one of the main reasons why he floated the "no third party spending" deal with Elizabeth Warren.

    Will Brown try to offer the same deal to Markey - and should Markey take it? I think Brown will surely offer it again because he has the State-wide name value and he doesn't gain by having Rove and Koch's spending money supporting him when he's then trying to frame himself as an independent Repub.  

    President Obama would have been a Republican in the 1980's.

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 11:35:01 AM PST

  •  I remember when Kos members (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    poo pooed all over the naming of Kirsten Gillibrand to replace Hillary, the same is now happening to Cory Booker.

  •  If I were Cooch's bishop, I'd be insulted by that. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, GoUBears

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 12:17:25 PM PST

  •  any of you guys remember when Hagel first ran for (0+ / 0-)

    office? I recently heard this theory that he basically stole the senate seat.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 12:42:59 PM PST

    •  evidence? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jncca

      He came out of the private sector to run for Senate, and I think that was his first race, in 1996. Basically the Ron Johnson of 1996...makes tons of money and is conservative and wins against a tough opponent (then-Gov Ben Nelson)

    •  Hardly call it stolen more like an upset (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      The wildly popular Ben Nelson was supposed to coast into the senate.

      But then again in a state as Red as Nebraska you really can't take any Republican for granted.

      "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

      by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 01:08:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's just a hyper-partisan rumor that has been (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skibum59, sacman701, DCCyclone

      floating around for years.  The logic of "he partly owned a voting machine company, therefore he cheated!"  that the hyperpartisans want to believe.  To me it's akin to the right winger's conspiracy theories about ACORN.

      27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

      by JDJase on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 01:23:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sounds like Diebold (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59, MichaelNY

        when their CEO shot off his mouth about favoring Bush in 2004 and doing what he could (such as fundraising) to help him, and that soon became a conspiracy theory about the voting machines being rigged that is probably still believed by many.

        I have qualms about paperless voting machines, and think that was a dumb thing for Diebold's head to say publicly, but I am not aware of any evidence that supports any Diebold meddling with the actual votes.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 01:31:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's because there is no evidence (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          This was one of the stupidest most easily disproved conspiracy theories - the whole "Bush stole Ohio" that was given credence by luminaries like Robert Kennedy Jr. and Harpers Magazine but fortunately not Kos or Josh Marshall or some of the more fact based progressives around at the time.

          •  weren't there 31 dem congresscritters that voted (0+ / 0-)

            not to count the Ohio votes? If I recall, it was most of the black caucus plus a few white liberals (Markey and Filner off the top of my head)

            RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

            by demographicarmageddon on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 07:38:48 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Minnesota House District 5B (4+ / 0-)

    State representative Tom Anzelc has prostate cancer. For those of you who have followed me for a while, you understand why this case in particular hits very close to home on a personal level. Get better Tom, we're rooting for you.

     http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/...

  •  Mack barely used that apartment anyway. (9+ / 0-)

    I guess that depletes half the bench there.  How amazing that the 2012 elections brought an end to the Macks in public service.  Connie Mack struck out big time (see what  I did there?) and Mary Mack doesn't have to represent a "third world toilet" anymore.  At least Sonny Bono actually represented Palm Springs.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 12:57:41 PM PST

  •  PA-GOV: More PPP Polling (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, JBraden, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    Here, including full memo therein.

    If Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce Castor decides to challenge Gov. Tom Corbett in next year’s Republican primary, he will have some catching up to do.

    The latest survey from Public Policy Polling, obtained by PoliticsPA, shows the Governor ahead by a 44 point margin, 55 percent to 11 percent.

    This poll reflects the fact that Castor’s name ID falls far short of Corbett’s. But perhaps more importantly, the Governor is having a hard time consolidating his party’s support. Less than half of Republicans – 45 percent – said they’d like Corbett to be the GOP nominee in 2014. 37 percent said they want someone else.

    Only 54 percent of Republicans said they approve the job he’s doing as Governor. 31 percent disapprove.

    The crosstabs tell an interesting story. Corbett does well among self-identified “very conservative” voters, whom he wins 50 percent to 28 against a generic GOP opponent (“someone else”).  He does the worst against “somewhat liberal” Republicans (who he loses 70 percent to 23).

    That leaves a tough choice ahead for Castor: should he run to Corbett’s left or right? Moderate and liberal Republicans more strongly dislike Corbett, but represent a smaller part of the party base. Conservatives represent more voters and give Corbett higher scores – although their support is soft....

    Finally, a majority of Pa. Republicans support some form of legal recognition of same sex relationships. 14 percent support full marriage equality; 39 percent said gay couples should be allowed civil unions but not marriages. 45 percent said there should be no legal status at all.

  •  Sandi Jackson, Jesse Jackson Jr's wife, resigns (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JDJase, Adam B, HoosierD42, MichaelNY, GoUBears

    from Chicago City Council, citing "very painful family health matters".

    link.

  •  WATN (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Allen Quist, last seen losing 58-42 to Tim Walz, is running in a House District 19A special election (primary January 29th, General February 12th). Filing period ends on Tuesday.

    Walz won 19A over Quist by a 63-37 margin as Obama was winning it 53-45.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 02:49:03 PM PST

    •  Who vacated it? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Dems should be somewhat favored here.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 03:06:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  yep, DFL-seat (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        Terry Morrow left to take a job with the Uniform Law Commission.

        District 14A is vacated by the Rs and up on the same days. 50.05-47.51 Romney. Klobuchar won it 63-32. Jim Graves won it 57-42.

        Amendment 1 (Marriage 'protection') failed in 14A and 19A.
        Amendment 2 (Photo ID) passed in 14A and failed in 19A.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 03:32:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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