Skip to main content


The Byrds -- "You Ain't Goin' Nowhere"

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  My school doesn't offer an American Politics class (6+ / 0-)

    which makes me sad.

    Maybe I could teach one, haha.

    •  I suspect most of us could (8+ / 0-)

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 05:50:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen

        I would have a bit of trouble teaching political theory.

        •  One of the courses I found the least inteteresting (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf, MichaelNY, gabjoh, kman23, jncca

          Not to say that it wasn't interesting, just that it was the least interesting.

          I suspect I'm not alone, as I don't like dealing with abstract ideas like the social contract, and other philosophical creations as much as I like dealing with concrete information.  Probably why I'm a elections nut, new data sets come in every few years.

          Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

          by Daman09 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 09:40:48 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  theory were my favorite classes. (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, sawolf, Taget, BeloitDem

            We only had one class on elections, and I didn't take it.  In particular my favorite classes were 'Liberalism and it's Critics', which mostly dealt with Rawlsian liberalism versus other liberals who were critical of it, and 'American Conservatism', which, being taught by a moderate Upstate NY Republican, was really eye-opening.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 09:47:39 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's very interesting if you look at it as (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, Taget, MichaelNY, gabjoh

              just a history class.  History of economic thought was also one of my favorite classes.  I just hate when they try to apply very antiquated ideas to modern social science.  I get it that people like Plato were important thinker, but his and others' ideas have little basis in empiricism.  I can't emphasize enough how much I like to be able to have data to test a hypothesis with.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

              by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 10:25:45 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think the way I saw it was that (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sawolf, MichaelNY, Taget

                none of the classes were going to be particularly helpful in helping me professionally, since I wanted to work on campaigns and classes don't teach that.  I was going to get all of my career prep from internships, which is why I did 5 or 6 of them.  So since it was more than just history or learning about the structure of governments and bureaucracies, but challenged me to think in ways other aspects of my life did not, I enjoyed it.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 12:08:44 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  My American Conservative class was terrible (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, James Allen, abgin, Taget

              My teacher was a friend of James O'Keefe and worked at the "Leadership Institute". Yuck. The guy was nuts. He even said there was no proof Nixon knew of Watergate and that he shouldn't have resigned and should have stood up to the liberal pressure.

              I realized that in the hands of a competent teacher the material would have been very interesting but unfortunately for me the experience sucked and only made me realize how crazy Tea Party folks are (most of my class was just as crazy, there were 5 of us Democrats grouped together who could only shake our heads).

              (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: J-Min's Stand Up

              by kman23 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:43:17 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  I just dislike having to learn about peoples ideas (5+ / 0-)

            that have little to no relevancy to actual modern politics and economics.  Take for instance the social contract and the "state of nature."  The actual evidence we have from anthropology, archaeology, and psychology basically throws cold water on the whole idea of the Hobbesian state of nature where everyone is against everyone else, yet I took one course where we had to learn the several thinkers' positions on the state of nature even though it was clearly at odds with empirical science.

            I'd much rather just take the pure philosophy course than one that tries to be political science but isn't scientific at all.  Political theory only seems useful as a historical look at antiquated ideas, though there are some that still resonate today.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 09:51:59 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think that's part of the main point (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              BeloitDem, kman23

              They still resonate today. Plus, understanding history helps us understand how we got to where we are today.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 09:58:07 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  But MetaPhysics!!!! (0+ / 0-)

              You composed my thoughts on the subject in a better way than I could in my currently "Been sick since New Years" situation, which reminds me, my signature is now out of date.

              Anyway, I'll say, I was really excited to take a modern philosophy course a few semesters ago.  Sadly, a major component of the was the theory of metaphysics.  Why the hell is so much emphasis put in metaphysics if that theory has been completely disproven by modern science?

              Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

              by Daman09 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 10:10:00 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Definitions of liberalism (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sawolf, James Allen, Taget, MichaelNY, kman23

              Always fascinate me. Particularly the European and American differences. Actually, also conservatism on both sides of the Atlantic. It isn't the same in my experience.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 10:21:35 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think it's getting closer (0+ / 0-)

                as the years go by.  There are certainly differences that will always persist because we have different histories and deal with different issues, but it seems to me like our politics are becoming more similar.  I don't think that's a good thing.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 10:37:26 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  I remember when I was in student government. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      A whole bunch of folks took a class (which turned out to be pretty awful and boring) called Theory and Practice of Evil.  We joked that the government meetings were our "lab."  We got put what we learned about the theory of the practice of evil into concrete action. ;)

      But on a more serious note it shows just how much more important who teaches and how something is taught than the subject matter.  You might be able to teach it well.. as for others... in the wrong hands the class might end up being a dog.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 10:47:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Anybody want to speculate on votes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    For Kerry and Hagel?

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 05:52:02 AM PST

    •  I imagine Kerry would get confirmed unanimously. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY
    •  Hagel's nomination will be interesting (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

      It's opposed by Barney Frank and Bill Kirstol, but supported by Glenn Greenwald and Frank Carlucci(Reagan's defense secretary).

      The hearings will matter a lot. Hagel seems like a smart guy, who probably knows a lot about how these confirmation hearings go.

      If he does well, then I think he will be confirmed. But I think it will be an odd vote, with possibly a significant number of Dems(10+) against.

    •  It depends on how serious the opposition is. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      If some folks just want to milk it for publicity it'll pass with probably 64 to 68 votes.

      On the other hand if the Republicans seriously want to oppose it and defeat it they easily kill it.  The best (though imperfect) analogy to a Republican nominated by a Democrat being blocked by Republicans in the Senate would be William Weld's nomination to be ambassador to Mexico.  Jesse Helms put a hold on it and not enough Republicans cared enough about him to try to do anything about it.  Particularly since it meant going against the Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee.

      The weird pretext of that fight was Jesse Helms went after Weld for his support for medicinal marijuana.  His chief sponsor was John Kerry who had just defeated him in a titanic senate race.

      If Republicans want to do a serious filibuster and conservative groups start whipping up votes it'll be tough.  Particularly since the white house tends to be risk adverse and if they feel the vote is in danger they'll pull the nomination and put someone else in just to avoid even the potential of embarrassment.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 11:06:27 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-40 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Taget

    Is Lucille Robal-Allard experiencing health difficulties?  She has not been sworn into office yet but I have not read anything about her having health difficulties.  Anyone know why she is missing in action?

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 07:10:01 AM PST

  •  Mapping the Dem caucuses (8+ / 0-)

    Here's a map I've made showing which House Democrats have membership in each of the three ideologically-based caucuses based on their caucus website membership, the liberal Congressional Progressive Caucus, the liberal/moderate New Democrat Coalition, and the moderate/conservative Blue Dog Coalition:
    Photobucket
    (full size here)
    If you can't see, the CPC is purple (68 total)
    New Dems are medium blue (49 total)
    Blue Dogs light blue (15 total)
    Unaffiliated are dark blue (79 total + 1 vacant)
    The in between shades indicate membership in both the CPC and New Dems, or both New Dems and Blue Dogs since there is a little bit of overlap
    In somewhat pathetic news considering how many there were prior to 2010, there are only 8 Blue Dogs left who aren't also New Dems.  Even Barrow and McIntyre are New Dems as well.  I could have sworn Ann Kirkpatrick and Nick Rahall were Blue Dogs and that Dina Titus was a New Dem, but apparently they aren't.

    I would do the Republican caucuses with the Mainstreet Partnership being their most "moderate" one, but given how the overwhelming majority of Republicans are in the archconservative Republican Study Committee and both of those have significant overlap with each other and/or the Tea Party Caucus and there isn't nearly as much ideological diversity between any of their caucuses as there is between the CPC and Blue Dogs, it didn't seem worth mapping.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 07:36:09 AM PST

    •  Republican map (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'd go ahead and do the Republican map.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 07:46:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  What groups are there? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Main Street (which probably has maybe 5 left), Republican Study Committee and Tea Party Caucus?

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 11:39:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Neat graphic (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, MichaelNY
    •  Interesting regional trends here (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen

      Progressives are heavily Northeastern, New Dems are heavily NYC and Washington State, while Blue Dogs are really scattered throughout the country at this point (whereas their historic base in in the South).

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 07:49:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  CPC also has a lot of west coast members. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, BeloitDem, SaoMagnifico

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 11:40:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  New Democrat Coalition members (4+ / 0-)

        seem to be heavily from suburban or partly urban areas that often voted Republican for President before Bill Clinton, the quintessential "New Democrat", won and are now mostly solidly Democratic, and not just for Obama.

        In addition to the New York and Washington state areas, I see several from the Philadelphia/Delaware, Washington DC (both MD and VA), South Florida, and Chicago areas, and parts of California (especially Southern California.)

        Blue Dogs really weren't just Southern but moderate to conservative on most issues, particularly fiscal ones.  With many southern districts becoming difficult for even Blue Dog Dems to win (aggravated by gerrymandering), it makes sense that other parts of the country would have more of a say in that group.  Interestingly, two of the three geographically northernmost districts held by Democrats both have Blue Dog reps (Collin Peterson and Mike Michaud).

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 12:17:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  yeah (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, lordpet8

          Bonamici's choice to join the CPC is really interesting to me.  Columbia and Clatsop counties are really ancestrally Dem, with Clatsop having super progressive Democrats, Columbia having more conservative ones.  Washington and Yamhill are both more suburban, Dem-trending, ancestrally R counties, and are both more where I'd expect New Dems to flourish (and in fact they do in the WashCo suburbs).  It doesn't have that much of Multnomah County.  Washington County is over 60% of the district's population.  I'd really expect it to be more New Democrat than CPC.  I trust Bonamici's instincts, though.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:13:14 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  surprisng (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

      I didn't know my congresswoman was in the CPC.  Is DeFazio in the weakest Democratic district by PVI of any CPC member?

      Also, Bennie Thompson?  Really?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 08:54:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah I was surprised at Thompson (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen, SaoMagnifico

        DeFazio probably has the weakest by local strength with Takano second, but Nolan has the weakest by PVI.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 08:58:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  yeah as I was writing that I noticed Nolan (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf, MichaelNY, Taget

          was already in, and thought he might.  They're similar districts in at least character, both being natural resource heavy, non-Southern ancestrally Democratic districts, each with a big liberal city.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 09:19:02 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Nolan (5+ / 0-)

            He is probably the last of the old true Farmer-Labor congressman. There are some left in the legislature like Senate Majority Leader Bakk, Senator Tony Lourey, Representative Paul Marquart, and Representative Gene Pelowski. Peterson fits the mold of an outstate DFL congressman, but the Famer Labor Party was essentially communist in its day, before the era of McCarthyism. It is no accident that the name Farmer-Labor matches up surprisingly well to the hammer and sickle...  This faction took a big hit with retirements and deaths recently namely Rukavina, Hilty and Kulby. But there is a young upstart branch of politicos in this mold which give me hope for this part of the party in the future. Representatives Melin, Falk, Rodinovich and Metzen are all under 30, and are the future of the outstate DFL. Future congressman (and retiring representative Larry Hosch, and future state legislator (and current LaPrairie City councilman Joe Gould are also waiting on the bench to take of the mantle as well.

            •  What makes someone a "true Farmer-Labor" (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Taget

              politician?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 09:59:24 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Think true believers in Marxist fiscal policy (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, betelgeux

                With a wide swath of social ideologies that generally resolve around "what is right" moreso than what we consider a left-right social spectrum.

                Let me put it this way: If the Socialist Party were relevant in the United States, Nolan and Sanders would be the first to sign up

                •  On a personal note (5+ / 0-)

                  It saddens me that a lot of out-of-state activists are trying to throw these people under the bus because they have an issue or two that they disagree on (be it environmental, social, agricultural, or whatever). The fact of the matter is that these representatives and senators are the reason Democrats have a majority in both chambers. If rural voters in Minnesota voted like rural voters elsewhere, Minnesota would be a bright red state.

                •  Interesting I had no idea Nolan was that left wing (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, betelgeux, Taget

                  He seems like he'll be an upgrade over Oberstar.  How is he on social issues? IIRC Oberstar was anti-choice.

                  NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                  by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 10:18:08 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  social issues aren't really an issue (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, betelgeux, Taget

                    He is much more of a fiscal populist, which is what initially attracted me to his campaign in 2011 when everyone thought he was a joke.

                    On abortion, he is mostly pro-choice with some things like partial birth abortion opposition, etc.

                    on gay marriage he takes a libertarian approach. He won't be leading the charge to legalize it, but if put to a vote, he'd likely side with the LGBT.

                    On immigration he opposes outright legalization of everyone, but he is open to a comprehensive solution, if there is such a thing.

                    The big issue that Democrats might have with him is with the environment, particularly on mineral extraction. Being anti-mining would be a kiss of death in this district, especially with new sources of copper and REM being explored providing much needed jobs.

                    He is also a free-trader, in a sense. He wants to expand Duluth as a major port, which is understandable.

            •  Oregon's equivalent (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, betelgeux

              (though not Marxists) are just about all in the areas near the coast and coastal mountain range and Southern Oregon, though mostly the coast.  We have some in Southern Oregon, but not enough to elect anyone outside of the coastal areas, whereas we have what I would term as natural resource Dems (primarily timber) in the legislature from Coos and Columbia counties, who may be moderate on environmental issues but are otherwise progressive Democrats.

              Unfortunately most of the people who would have succeeded the Demosaurs of those areas have bought into the right wing's mythology about what "killed" the forestry industry here (which is not dead at all).

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 01:32:23 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Same in Louisiana (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, James Allen, betelgeux

                The Long faction epitomizes this. The Charity hospital system, free higher ed for in state public university students who make certain test scores and keep a certain grade, etc.

                Jindal is in the process of dismantling this as much as possible, but EWE is very much the symbolic leader of this field of thought.

                You still have a good amount of this in the state legislature. I'd argue Rep. Ortego (rising star) from rural Acadiana is arguably one of the most fiscally liberal members of the legislature.

                21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

                by Stephen Schmitz on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 03:11:00 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Wait wait wait (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen, betelgeux

                  There's a Democratic Hispanic state Rep from a Republican leaning rural Acadiana district???

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 03:32:21 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Decent number of Louisianans with Spanish last (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Audrid, MichaelNY

                    names in politics.

                    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

                    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                    by jncca on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 09:58:31 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  And a liberal too (6+ / 0-)

                    Not sure what his ethnic heritage is, but he's definitely a rising star.

                    And yes, as jncca notes below, there are a lot of Spanish surnames in Louisiana, many being holdovers from the days Louisiana was a Spanish colony.

                    The Nunez family, Blanco (who identifies as Cajun but blanco is certainly Spanish), Carlos and Mary Flores, the odious Perez family, etc.

                    One thing I will say is that for the first 150 years of this country's history, the gateway to Latin America was New Orleans, not Houston, Los Angeles or Miami.

                    New Orleans was much larger and culturally significant than both. There are a ton of connections between prominent New Orleanians and the Latin American dictators of the 20th century because of the money both made off each other.

                    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

                    by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 10:19:01 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

    •  I can't see (0+ / 0-)

      the full-size version. It's displaying one of those annoying little white boxes with a red X instead of the picture. This has been happening to me a lot recently. Anyone know how to fix it? I'm using IE 8.

      Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

      by betelgeux on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 07:03:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It works fine for me, but I'm using Chrome (0+ / 0-)

        and it's uploaded onto google drive, so something would be seriously wrong if those two were incompatible.  Try a different browser and see if it works.

        You can also just click through to photobucket and get it somewhat larger, but not really at enough detail to see NYC, LA, etc.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 07:05:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Too bad Dayton and Walker hate eachother (0+ / 0-)

    Traditionally, when Minnesota and Wisconsin teams play in a high stakes game, the governors make a friendly wager over the results. Pawlenty and Doyle had some good ones.

  •  2014 Targets (5+ / 0-)

    We need to pick up 17 seats to get a majority.

    Out of the 356 districts that we have data for, either final or semi-final, on my spreadsheet, these districts seem like the best targets when looking only at PVI.

    CA-31: D+5. Miller is screwed no matter how he looks at it. Maybe he'll jump ship to another district just like he did this cycle.

    CA-21: D+2. Valadao will get a strong challenge, but winning it may be more difficult because Hispanic turnout will drop in the midterm. Although, if immigration reform gets passed with a pathway that might not necessarily be the case.

    CO-6: D+1. Coffman already proved he could win against a decent recruit in Presidential turnout in a swing state, but the district moved two points in PVI toward us from R+1.

    IL-13: R+0. Davis is a moderate-ish incumbent (well, what looks to be moderate. We'll get better data as the session continues) in a district trending slightly away from us. But it's still one of our better targets.

    IA-3: R+0. We bombed this district with an incumbent on incumbent matchup, but the district trended toward us this cycle. We can't let Latham sit here.

    NV-3: R+0. This actually stayed the same in PVI, but Heck had a very strong showing against a very high profile recruit. Midterm drop-off in Hispanics will be a big problem here.

    PA-8: R+1. This moved two points against us. We need Patrick Murphy to run here in a rematch from 2010 (when he lost by 7) to have any sort-of chance, but even then I wouldn't hold my breath.

    MI-6: R+1. Upton was not a huge target this cycle, but still got his weakest showing in years.

    CA-10. R+1. Hispanic turnout drop-off will be a problem, and I don't want Hernandez to run again. He was a horrible recruit looking back at it.

    WA-8: R+1. This district is still moving toward us, maybe we can give Reichert a run for his money again. There's got to be another Microsoft employee who can self-fund...

    That's ten districts which are R+1 or better for us (there are probably a few more waiting in the wings that we don't have data for). Of them, I think only five are winnable. The obvious three are Miller, Valadao, and Coffman, all of which sit in D+ districts. The other two I expect many will disagree with me on: Davis and Reichert. Reichert has always been resilient, but when we've challenged him he's always held on narrowly and the district is trending toward us without minority growth. He's worth another try.

    In addition to those, there are 16 R+2 and R+3 districts which we don't hold (we hold three R+3 districts already: Gallego, Murphy, and Barber, one of which is likely to lose as the district is trending rapidly against us and he only won by the skin of his teeth against a damned crazy psycho war criminal: Murphy - from R+1 previously).

    Those are (in order from best PVI for us to worst):

    ~R+2:
    WI-7: Duffy.
    MN-3: Paulsen.
    WI-8: Ribble.
    FL-13: Young.
    FL-27: Ros-Lehtinen.
    MN-2: Kline.
    VA-2: Rigell.
    MI-8: Rogers.
    WA-3: Herrera Buetler.

    ~R+3:
    VA-10: Wolf.
    MI-7: Walberg.
    CA-25: McKeon.
    NY-23: Reed.
    WI-1: Ryan.
    OH-10: Turner.
    VA-4: Forbes.

    Of those, my favorite targets are Ros-Lehtinen, Rigell, McKeon, and Forbes because their districts trended rapidly toward us this cycle, Paulsen, Kline, and Herrera Buetler, because those districts are extremely winnable with the right candidates, and Reed who had a very very weak showing this cycle (we should either run Shinagawa again or maybe even Hochul for that seat even if that would look opportunistic).

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 08:33:26 AM PST

    •  Ros Lehtinen is entrenched but as soon as she reti (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      res, it's an easy Dem pickup.

    •  IRL (3+ / 0-)

      She won't lose her district, she is simply too popular.  Although if open it could be competitive if 2012 wasn't a fluke.

    •  Forbes makes no sense (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      Not that you've put him on the list - but that he has not had a serious challenge from Democrats yet.  I'd love to see him have a serious challenge.  His district is barely Republican leaning and a good chunk of it is ancestrally Democratic like Eastern North Carolina.  He's one of the most socially conservative Republicans in the House.

      One problem is that it's really hard to get African Americans to turn out in non-Presidential years in this part of Virginia - hence, Bob McDonnell winning some 60% Black counties in this district.

    •  My 17 to win (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, DCal, HoosierD42, Taget, RVKU

      In roughly the order from easiest to hardest:

      CA-31: Miller toast

      CA-21: Strong Hispanic challenger puls it out

      KY-06: A strong bench, a strong top of the ticket should easily deliver this seat back to us

      MI-01: Strong union Dem at top of ticket, Obama underperformed here

      CO-06: R just too conservative for this seat

      IL-13: A better candidate erases the tiny margin and wins this for us. Would be greatly helped by Durbin and Madigan at top of the ticket (IIRC Durbin represented part of this district in the House)

      PA-04: Rothus will surely have some crazy votes to run against him, and this seat will be easier to win without Obama at the top of the ticket.

      NY-13: Corruption + GOP unpopularity after Sandy = Dem seat, particularly if Diane Savino could be convinced (she'd have to promise to actually caucus with the Dems in Congress)

      VA-02: Mark Warner at top of ticket should help, can we clone Bill Enyart and have him run here?

      NY-23: This seat was too damn close to not contest again.

      FL-02: Cajole a Blue Dog to run. If Sink is at top of ticket, they should reclaim this seat.

      CA-10: Candidate should run on GOP's intransigence and dicking around on Farm Bill.

      VA-04: See VA-02, a veteran would definitely be a good candidate here.

      MI-11: If Bentivolio survives a primary, David Curson has proven he can win this district.

      NV-03: Need a great candidate here, preferably one that speaks to fiscally conservative suburbanites. Will be made more difficult with Sandoval at top of ticket

      OH-10: Let's run someone more than a warm body. Tough area but win not out of the question.

      I think my list contains a good deal of seats that are a lot easier to contest in midterms than in presidential years. Retirements could help us further.

      21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 02:04:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I can't believe you guys aren't including WV-02 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, kman23

        It's open and it's only 2% more Republican than the state.  Our bench is amazing there and the GOP bench sucks.  It would be great if Capito got teabagged and we picked up this seat thanks to her not being on the ticket.

        As for NV-03 it will have to wait until 2016 at the earliest, same with CA-10 since minority turnout will drop during midterms and they'll have had 4 more years to trend dem.

        For OH-13 we'll just have to hope Turner retires since he's got that seat locked down.  I'd expect the 6th, 7th, or 14th to flip before that one.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 02:09:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  WV-01 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          I think WV-01 is a better target honestly. It could be an open seat, and this area is just more friendly to down ticket Dems.

          Agreed on the rest. Dems definitely underdogs in a good many seats on my list.

          21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

          by Stephen Schmitz on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 03:13:03 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  any district that is more Republican than WV as (0+ / 0-)

          a whole is not a good target IMHO.  If we get a good recruit sure, but I wouldn't expect victory and they'd probably be too conservative to fit in well in congress.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 03:55:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well the 1st and 2nd are both just slightly more (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY

            Republican than the state, and if we can't win either as an open seat we're screwed when it comes to holding the senate seat and likely the governor's office/state legislature.  It really just remains to be seen how WV Dems are holding up on the federal level, though this cycle's elections will certainly be a good indicator.

            WV Dems could have easily drawn a district 1-2% more Dem than the state without hurting Rahall at all (or they could have shored him up, but didn't).  Even a completely court/commission drawn map would have been better than the crap we ended up with, though not by a huge amount.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:22:46 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think Blue Dogs (0+ / 0-)

              just really have no idea what is good for them.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:26:02 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  WV2 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I think the Dem ceiling there is whatever Manchin got. Of course he was the best possible Dem running against a GOP scrub, but it might be easier for Dems in 2014 without Obama at the top of the ticket. if Capito runs for the Senate I think a well-funded coal Dem could compete in WV2.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:45:32 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Also (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Remember that we'll undoubtedly have a bunch of incumbents lose as well, so we have to win probably 25 of the Republican seats to take a majority. That's wave territory... (in which case we won't lost many if any of our incumbents...)

        I just don't think it'll happen.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 02:23:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I just wanted to list the 17 it would minimally take. Once we know all the candidates, it'll be a lot easier to handicap.

          That said, I don't see us losing too many of the seats we have except through retirement. The only incumbents I'd really worry about are TX-23 (Gallego), FL-18 (Murphy), NC-07 (McIntyre), NY-?? (Sean Patrick Maloney) & CA-?? (Ruiz).

          Even most of those have a better than not chance of winning.

          21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

          by Stephen Schmitz on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 03:16:54 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Those are the ones you worry about? (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, James Allen, betelgeux

            Of them, I'm only worried about Murphy and McIntyre.

            I'd worry more about Peters and some others than Gallego, Ruiz, and Maloney.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 03:35:22 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  yeah CA-36 seems to be trending our way pretty (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              quick.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 03:56:09 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Peters should be fine (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sawolf, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

              His district is less prone to dropoff than most in CA are, and Obama won it easily. I think he'd beat Bilbray again and handily beat anyone else. Ruiz may have more trouble, his district is less blue and more prone to dropoff. Ultimately I think they'll both win as both districts are trending blue and the CA GOP is in shambles.

              I think the 3 most likely losses are McIntyre, Murphy (if West doesn't run), and Barber (if McSally runs). Even those 3 are no worse than tossups and would probably be favored if the economy improves and Obama is popular. I think every other Dem incumbent should win unless the economy tanks. Dems have relatively few seats to defend and should be able to put a lot of $ into all of them.

              That said I think the only GOP incumbent likely to lose is Gary Miller. Coffman and Valadao are vulnerable if Dems run a bang-up campaign but as of today I'd bet on them to win.

              SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:58:51 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  McIntyre (0+ / 0-)

                He barely won. I think that race starts at no better than Tossup/Tilt R, and possibly at Lean R. Why am I wrong?

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 05:28:19 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Because it's not that black and he won't have (5+ / 0-)

                  Romney's campaign saturating the district with money, campaign staff, and volunteers.  Plus he'll no longer be new to any of it and he'll be guaranteed DCCC backup like this time.  Add to it that Kay Hagan at the top of the ticket won't be likely to hurt him and I think it starts off at tossup at worst; if he were going to lose it would have been 2012 of any year.

                  NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                  by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 05:52:35 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Well (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, MichaelNY

                    He also doesn't have Obama's turnout machine either.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:01:37 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Right, but he'll need it a lot less (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      James Allen, MichaelNY

                      given how white his district is compared to the state.  It's not like we're talking about a central valley district or deep south district where we can't win without the presidential race driving minority turnout.  I'm not saying McIntyre can't lose, just that it's folly to assume that just because he scraped by last year he's DOA in 2014.

                      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                      by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:06:00 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  That's a very simplistic view of the (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        Obama turnout machine and or campaigns in general.

                        They aren't just turning out minorities, which honestly with Obama alot of that was organic increase because of the nature of his candidacy.

                        Much of what a campaign does is identify its supporters (among what are called different "universes") and turn those individuals out. What Obama did was allow McIntyre to ignore the universes that Obama was targeting and persuading and instead do pure persuasion on other individuals. Without that very integral backup, McIntyre will very very easily lose because he now has to do the underlying work as well.

                        The fact that his district isn't heavily minority actually works against him here because Obama's turnout operation in this area got him to 40% largely without that organic minority turnout. The further that Obama help falls, the more that McIntyre has to make up for it with his own turnout operation while still maintaining his own persuasion operation. That takes alot of money.

                        He's, frankly, a total goner.

                        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                        by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:32:38 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  There really aren't any universities there (0+ / 0-)

                          since UNC Wilmington was gerrymandered into the 3rd, but honestly this is only really knowable after the election.  Certainly if McIntyre goes down hard then I'll certainly agree with the points you raise, but I just don't think he's DOA the way Kissell was after the maps were released.  In particular I think he'll do much better in the new areas of the district than the last time since he's immensely popular with center-right voters.

                          Still, I really wish the DCCC could have triaged him and spent those millions on Joe Miklosi, David Gill, etc.  Oh well...

                          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                          by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:39:46 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  What? (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            What do universities have to do with any of this?

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:45:05 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I misread your "universes" as university students (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen

                            though it still makes some sense in context (among university students... turn those out).  I was just generally thinking about minorities and college students, who are more likely to turn out only in presidential years.  That's just compared to other districts which are more minority heavy and have major campuses and thus a higher proportion of the Dem vote comes from infrequent voters.

                            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                            by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:54:52 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                  •  Not that black? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    NC-07 is 17% black when Obama got 41%... If black turnout is at all lower, McIntyre, who faced a very weak opponent in David Rouzer and narrowly won, will have to win over more whites, something that won't be easy (especially in a midterm). He'll have to win more Obama whites and more Romney whites at the same time. That's gonne be rough.

                    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

                    by IllinoyedR on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:43:52 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  He's screwed (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      And he probably realizes it as well.

                      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                      by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:46:45 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Yes, that's not that black (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      KingofSpades

                      compared to the Deep South where we're uncompetitive in 42% black districts in non-presidential years.  I wasn't saying it had no black voters, just that it's completely different than the typical "we can win in presidential years, but there's 0% chance otherwise."  Also Rouzer wasn't all that weak, who the hell else is going to run who has any sort of well established base?  Thom Goolsby? I doubt it.

                      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                      by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:47:28 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Ilario Pantano was the real weak one. (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        sawolf, MichaelNY, jncca

                        Rouzer's problem was that he's not very charismatic and is very suburban, but that doesn't disqualify him.  He's all of the sudden "weak" because he lost is the logic, I think.

                        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                        by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:52:42 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  Rouzer (0+ / 0-)

                        Was widely regarded here as the weakest possible Republican for McIntyre to face. We all can't have it both ways. He was an awful candidate.

                        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                        by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:52:47 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  "Established base" (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        Rouzer performed about as well as any Republican would who ran a real campaign in Johnston County and didn't particularly perform well in SE NC. McIntyre's Blue Dog brand of conservatism didn't sell in Johnston County, nor will it ever. Exurban Raleigh just isn't the type of place McIntyre will or can click with.

                        Thom Goolsby or any established Republican from the heart of NC-07, the southeastern portion, would be best. That's McIntyre's base and that's where Republicans need to play well. Johnston County will come along no matter what.

                        I'd actually run a businessman with established community ties in the southeastern portion of the district if I were picking a candidate for my team.

                        Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

                        by IllinoyedR on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:54:01 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  That's just not borne out by the facts (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                          Rouzer kept up with Romney in Johnston County by far the best out of any county in the district, even the others that were new to relatively new to McIntyre.

                          I'm not saying Goolsby wouldn't be a better candidate, but there's been no indication that he would run and many of the other state legislators in the district have only been there since 2010 and don't have a well established base.  If Republicans had a far better candidate to run than Rouzer, then why didn't they run last year?

                          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                          by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 07:01:51 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Actually, very factual (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            Rouzer actually ran behind Romney in Johnston County by 3.88%. Dan Forest, who narrowly won statewide and is not from the area, ran ahead of Rouzer by a thousand or so votes.

                            Here's some history on Rouzer. Rouzer almost lost his first State Senate race in a heavily, heavily Republican Johnston County based district. He ran behind John McCain by 11% in a district that's largely exurban Raleigh and that is a Republican county, both locally and federally. The guy's not a talented politician and still almost beat a very smooth operator in Mike McIntyre in a Presidential year.

                            Rouzer barely campaigned until the home stretch, when he started to surge. If the campaign had happened a week later, he'd have won. Regardless, a New Hanover, Columbus, or Brunswick County candidate would have held up just as well in Johnston County as Rouzer did, who wasn't all that popular in his home county, and would have run better in the southeast.

                            Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

                            by IllinoyedR on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 07:16:13 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                    •  why would he need more white votes? (0+ / 0-)

                      I mean, maybe a few.  Not a ridiculous number, though.  There will be less turnout overall.  His win number will be smaller.

                      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                      by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 07:58:12 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  I agree with you. (0+ / 0-)

                    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                    by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:47:54 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  SPM is NY-18 (0+ / 0-)

            Ruiz is CA-36.

            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 09:18:49 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  comments (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        CA21: Dems need a strong Hispanic with a strong GOTV operation. Costa's turnout cratered in 2010 and Dems will need to be dragged to the polls in 2014.

        KY6: What top of the ticket? The Dem A team is all running scared of McConnell and eying the 2015 governor race, and they will probably be stuck with a meh candidate with nothing to lose. This will be a very tough pickup even for a coal Dem.

        CO6: Coffman may be too conservative, but either Miklosi will have to raise a lot more money or Dems will have to find someone else who can shake the money tree.

        PA4: Altmire is probably out, Critz may be Dems' only hope.

        VA2: I like that idea.

        CA10: The central valley is not very dependent on federal farm programs, as it produces mostly fruit and vegetables. Water and environmental issues tend to be big. You need a Costa or Cardoza type ag Dem, which is the Cali equivalent of a coal Dem.

        MI11: Curson doesn't live in the district, but might be the best bet if he's up for a serious campaign.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:41:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm just speculating here (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, sawolf, MichaelNY, James Allen

          but State Sen. Morgan Carroll could put the scare into Coffman.  She also lives in the district.  Miklosi, I think, lives in Denver.  Also, McConnell and Barr are different.  I think we could beat the latter as that district was GOP in the 80's and early 90's, flipped Dem, went GOP in '98, and went back to Dem in '04.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:44:18 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  comments (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, James Allen, MichaelNY

        MI-11: Dave Curson proved he could win the old, bluer district. and he doesn't live in the new one.

        OH-10: Swartz Neuhardt was a semi-legit candidate. who else do we have? note that the mayor of Dayton is a indie who apparently got elected with R support.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 09:17:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Curson doesn't live in the new MI-11 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        That's why he only ran in the special. Now obviously that's only a boundary to running in the minds of some people, but I'm not sure Curson's interested.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 10:31:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Wayne County vs Oakland County (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, sawolf, bumiputera

          Wayne County dominated the old 11th, while Oakland County is most of the new 11th. Curson did very poorly in Oakland County, but dominated in Wayne County. Also, Curson also didn't really run a campaign. John Dingell's campaign did the GOTV efforts for him.

          If we were going with somebody from Wayne County, I think people would try to convince State Senator Glenn Anderson to run here instead of the 13th.  While he does not live in the district, he does represent Livonia.

          Personally I think going with somebody from Oakland County might be better. I really can't think of too many that might be interested though. Andy Levin (son of Sandy Levin) might be an option. He barely lost a race for State Senate in Troy in 2006.

          M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

          by slacks on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 03:08:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Im optimistic at least for 2016 (3+ / 0-)

      One of the reasons that make me to be optimistic, is that the districts under the R+5 in Republican hands are all in states that Obama wins, and that mean it is likely to find a year when the pressure from the top of the ticket be favourable to the Democratic Party.

      Other reason is that a good number of Republican incumbets get in the 50s% in a lot of the most competitive districts. In a good year with stronger candidates it is possible to win again the majority in the US House.

      In the other side the Democrats will need to defend some districts, but only a few (I think only 9):

      UT-04
      NC-07
      GA-12
      WV-03
      AZ-01
      TX-23
      AZ-02
      FL-18
      AZ-09

      Here will be likely the alone fight in the states that Romney wins. The Republicans will play defensive while they have a mayority. I see less vulnerable the rest (as example NY-18), and I think they will not target them except if there are open. Even the seats of the list are harder for them than the defense of their current incumbents.

  •  Presidential Results by CD: Regression Update. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf

    We're at a 0.98 r-squared using the current results and Wessa.  

    The equation is:

    Obama12 = 1.08*Obama08 -5.74.
    Anything interesting on the over/under-performing districts?  Several California districts come in as notable underperformances.
    CA-02    Huffman, Jared    (D)    -2.26%
    CA-04    McClintock, Tom    (R)    -1.58%
    CA-11    Miller, George    (D)    -1.82%
    CA-18    Eshoo, Anna    (D)    -1.96%
    CA-33    Waxman, Henry    (D)    -3.30%
    CA-45    Campbell, John    (R)    -1.51%
    CA-49    Issa, Darrell    (R)    -2.23%
    CA-52    Peters, Scott    (D)    -1.60%

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 09:53:57 AM PST

  •  Obama's Anger Translator (7+ / 0-)

    https://www.youtube.com/...

    This is the funniest thing I've seen in ages.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 10:11:17 AM PST

  •  Pennsylvania (11+ / 0-)

     Governor Corbett's decision to sue the NCAA over penalties to the football program has not been well-received. I am beginning to believe that Corbett has down irreparable damage to his reputation. Would-be primary challenger Bruce Castor has already made a statement against Corbett's decision.

      Representative Tim Briggs will lead the House Democratic Campaign Committee, and he is a good choice. He's clever and he's from the Philly surburbs (Norristown, specifically) - where our house candidates did surprisingly poorly in 2012. He has also been a vocal opponent of Corbett, so I expect a coordinated campaign among our house candidates to run against Corbett.

      I know it seems like a pipe dream, but I want to win the trifecta in the 2014 elections in Pennsylvania. The House has always been in reach, but now the Senate is as well. And then I clamor for mid-decade redistricting.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 11:09:35 AM PST

  •  Pat McCrory just sworn in (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    as governor of North Carolina a few hours ago.  Congratulations to him.

    •  Why are we congratulating him? (7+ / 0-)

      Don't get me wrong, since he's their governor, I hope he does a good job, but I don't get the reason to congratulate him.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 11:41:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        it is an accomplishment to become Governor.

      •  Congrats Pat (5+ / 0-)

        on successfully taking your oath of office. It was hard to memorize, I'm sure

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 12:17:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Fuck him! (0+ / 0-)

        I pray the SOB becomes a failure of a Governor which is probably likely

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 01:04:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think you're putting politics ahead (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          betelgeux, jncca

          of real life. We should never hope for whomever is elected to suck. Republicans usually do, so it's depressing when they win, but hoping he fails is wishing the people of North Carolina suffer.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 01:34:34 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ive said plenty of time I pray for the ppl of NC (0+ / 0-)

            but they're going to have to deal with this snakeoil salesman and his vile GOP controlled legislature for the next four yrs.

            I PRAY HE BECOMES A FAILURE! and I hope it takes another 24 yrs before another Republican wins the NC Governorship.

            And I would had wish the same thing if Romney won. Most importantly I wouldn't consider him my President.

            Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

            by BKGyptian89 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 01:52:30 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Did you also hope Christie failed (0+ / 0-)

              when he was elected? Wouldn't it really suck for New Jersey if he had failed after the storm?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 02:03:20 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah I did hope for Christie to fail (0+ / 0-)

                I don't wish for natural disasters on my state. Im happy he handled it well and Im just pissed that it helped his approvals.

                Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

                by BKGyptian89 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 02:08:00 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Well the logic goes like this: (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, gabjoh, James Allen, askew

                If Christie/McCrory fail then their policies don't all get enacted and they lose reelection, allowing policy to be a lot more progressive in the future than if they had "succeeded" in their goals.

                I think the whole concept of calling an opposite party governor a success or failure kind of misses the mark.  We don't want them to enact their agenda, which to them would be a success, and if they lose reelection that's great for us, but a failure for them.  So while I wouldn't quite say "I hope he fails", I certainly hope he can't enact tons of reactionary policies and that he loses reelection.

                NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 02:12:37 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Thats exactly what I mean (0+ / 0-)

                  but I dont regret saying that I hope and pray they fail. Cause I really mean that.

                  Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

                  by BKGyptian89 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 02:27:17 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  well he has supermajorities in the lege, right? (0+ / 0-)

                  So I don't think failure in that sense is possible, unless he's really out of step with the legislative Republicans.  However, if I were to say I was hoping for his failure, I would either mean that by some circumstance he became unpopular and wasn't re-elected, or that his policies ended up becoming very unpopular after they passed, causing the eventual return to Democratic governance.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:23:48 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

          •  I don't hope he fails (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I do hope that if he and his super-majority legislature act in the extremist way that their counterparts in WI, MI and elsewhere have and if they make life harder for teachers, unions and the most vulnerable in society and try to disenfranchise minorities, that they fail in that objective and suffer the electoral drubbing that they so richly deserve and are kicked into the dustbins of history

        •  nah (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          Hope he governs as a moderate, which may be unlikely but is preferable to the state crashing and burning.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 05:07:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  He's going to run the state into the ground (2+ / 0-)

            regardless, or rather the Republican supermajorities in the legislature will run the state into the ground.  That's the catch, McCrory can't govern as a moderate because the legislature will easily override his vetoes.  So why not hope he becomes wingnut crusader and make himself unpopular too?  He could much more easily do the Rick Snyder shtick (until this year) and pretend to veto or not sign stuff knowing that the legislature has the votes to override.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 05:23:21 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  OTOH (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, sacman701

              There are probably a handful of moderate allies in the legislature if he chose to go that route that would give him cover and NOT help override his vetoes.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:04:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Maybe, but just looking at who all moved up (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                or ran for statewide office this year, none of them were really that moderate.  I'm not really that tuned into state legislative politics since Democrats aren't retaking the legislature for the foreseeable future, but McCrory would need 4 senators (12% of the caucus total) and 6 reps (8%) to vote with every single Democrat for him to be able to veto the rest of the caucus.  While that may not seem like a lot, Republicans here tend to be very solidly in the Jesse Helms mold and it wouldn't surprise me if the "moderate" bloc of the caucus in each chamber is smaller than that.

                I think that will end up being moot though, as McCrory will sign all the vile crap that passes out of the legislature.

                NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:12:16 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Brad Miller 2016 (0+ / 0-)

      Unlikely, but a man can dream.

      Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

      by betelgeux on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 07:19:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Confederate New Jersey? (6+ / 0-)

    I've been reading the excellent book, Boardwalk Empire: The Birth, High Times, and Corruption of Atlantic City by Nelson Johnson.  Which of course inspired the tv show after Martin Scorsese bought the tv/movie rights for it.  And yes one of the people the book does highlight is Enoch Johnson aka Enoch Thompson.

    In the chapter that was dealing with African-American immigration and opportunities in Atlantic City I came across this curious passage.  I'll quote about half the paragraph.

    This was especially true of the smaller communities in New Jersey where there had been support for th Confederate cause.  New Jersey's reaction to Lincoln's election in 1860 included talk of secession.  When war broke out, former Governor Rodman Price and other Democrats openly stated that the state should join the South.  Local sentiment didn't change during the War.  In addition to being the only Northern state where Lincoln failed to gain a majority, New Jersey selected pro-Southern Democrat James Wall to serve in the US Senate in 1863.  The same year Democratic Governor Joel Parker denounced Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation as an improper trespass on state's rights and the New Jersey legislature adotped legislation banning Negroes from the state.  Finally, the Legislature elected in 1864 rejected the ratification of the 13th Amendment tot he USA Constitution, which ended slavery.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 11:27:38 AM PST

    •  That's interesting (4+ / 0-)

      New York City had some similar Confederate sympathies.  Democratic Mayor Fernando Wood (who later served in Congress... if you saw it you may remember his excellent cameo in Lincoln) wanted NYC to secede from the Union and ally with the Confederacy.

    •  Interesting -- and not that suprising (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget, MichaelNY

      Slavery took hold in New Jersey probably more than any other free state -- and there were like a dozen or so old slaves that were still be held in NJ and not emancipated until the 13th Amendment.

    •  Yeah, our Dem congressmen (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget, MichaelNY, Englishlefty

      also voted against the amendment to ban slavery.   It wasn't until the Jim Crow Era that NJ got ahead of the curve on race relations (IIRC).  Delaware went the other way and had a lot of Jim Crow laws.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 12:30:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Delaware seems generally slow (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Despite being blue for a while, they didn't get a Dem trifecta until after 2008.
        They have a solid Dem trifecta and the main issues revolve around business (banks, credit agencies, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, etc.), but have yet to get a move on on SSM.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 01:30:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Ironically enough, the NJ town of Lawnside (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget, James Allen, MichaelNY, sapelcovits

      was founded in 1840 by abolitionists as a resettlement colony for escaped or freed slaves.  It's currently 88% Black.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:18:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  New Jersey was actually the last northern state... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Taget

      ... to abolish slavery (not counting the border states). They passed a law providing for gradual emancipation in 1804, but because existing slaves were grandfathered, slavery in the state was only abolished outright in 1846. And even then, slaves could be redefined as "indentured servants for life," which was only a semantic difference. The last few were only freed upon passage of the 13th Amendment.

  •  Lol! (7+ / 0-)

    Heidi Heikamp went to Lewis & Clark's law school!  And she had the same contracts professor that I have!  That's awesome!  Newell is widely respected, not to mention hilarious.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 11:56:41 AM PST

  •  Maine Govonor (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, betelgeux

    Hannah Pingree, daughter of Chellie Pingree.

    I wonder if she would ever run in 2014.

    •  If Eliot Cutler runs (and I think he will) (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, James Allen, MichaelNY

      We need to get out of his way. Now as a generally partisan Democrat, it's not a confession I relish making, but Cutler has a better shot of taking that without a strong Democrat in the race. And if there is a strong Democrat, LePage is that much more likely to be reelected.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 10:44:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think he deserve not this privilege (0+ / 0-)

        I hope to see a strong Democrat in Maine. If a strong Democrat runs, Cutler should get out. He lost against LePage.

        •  The Democrat lost worst (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, jncca, bumiputera

          If it had been just Cutler, he would have won. Your argument is precisely what led to Governor LePage.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 07:28:06 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Perhaps it's the Maine Democratic party's (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, abgin

            responsibility to recruit a great candidate. One that won't see a good chunk of their support bleed away to an Independent candidate. I'm certainly not okay with ceding a state, because we might split the vote. And the keyword there is might.

            20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 08:03:29 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ceding a state to a decent independent (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca, James Allen

              is not at all similar to ceding it to a Republican. Did you think it was wrong to facilitate Angus King's victory, too? I couldn't agree with you, in that case.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 08:13:11 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Meh (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                abgin

                I'll wait and see. I think January 6, 2013 is a little too soon to cede anything.

                20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                by ndrwmls10 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 08:24:06 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Please give an answer about Angus King. n/t (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  HoosierD42

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 08:45:49 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Apples and oranges (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, abgin

                    Find a strong Dem willing to commit to run now, start running, poll, if Cutler runs well ahead of the Dem, then reconsider.

                    Cutler is not King.

                    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                    by tommypaine on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 12:51:47 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I think you're right (0+ / 0-)

                      But it would have to be someone very strong like Hannah Pingree.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:27:01 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  King wasn't King until he won either. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Cutler was basically a Some Dude lawyer and former Muskie staffer when he ran in 2010, and he nearly doubled Libby Mitchell's vote total, the State Senate President. Mainers value "independence" a lot more than party labels; they fetishize it in fact. If LePage and Cutler are both in the race, I can almost guarantee the Democrat will come in third again.

                      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                      by HoosierD42 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 04:21:48 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  King wins two gubernatorial races before (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        defeating S Collins (R) and J Brennan (D), a former Democratic Governor in 1994.

                        King was a proved winner in competitive races in Maine, and he confirms it. He was also leading Pingre in the first polls of the last cycle.

                      •  Until he won the first time I assume you mean (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        abgin, MichaelNY

                        but obviously that is irrelevant.  King was Bob Massie like in 2012.  He could not lose, absent a calamity.  Cutler isn't in that league.  Not by a long shot.

                        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                        by tommypaine on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 06:21:40 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Yes, I was referring to his 1994 run (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          By that time he had almost the exact same resumé as Eliot Cutler, some local recognition (as a public television host) and a former Senate staffer. Comparing King in 1994 and Cutler in 2010 is perfectly reasonable.

                          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                          by HoosierD42 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 06:35:27 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                  •  King wins and Cutler not (0+ / 0-)

                    I agree with your point about King, but not about Cutler, because King wins, and Cutler lost.

                    Even I would see it before in the case of Chafee, who defeat the strongest Democrats and Republicans in RI in 2010.

                    But the case of Cutler is different. He lost and Pingree or Michaud were not running in 2010.

              •  I second this (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, KingofSpades, kleinburger

                Once Angus King got in, his broad personal appeal made it almost impossible for Dill or any other nominal Democrat to win, unless he got out early or massively screwed up.  He didn't, and the polling and support he got from Maine Democrats, who after all know him better than we do, meant that Dill was only a potential spoiler who might hand the seat to GOP candidate Summers, who would have been far less likely to support a Democratic agenda than King (and probably worse than Snowe.)

                In light of what happened in the 2010 guv race, can we fairly blame Maine Democrats for putting ideological purity and nominal party labels second?

                37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 12:59:26 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I think it was not about ideological purity (0+ / 0-)

                  The point should be more about political strenght.

                  There is a big difference between King and Cutler. King wins the race, and Cutler lost. I think King wins the chance of having a Democratic support, even Chafee (also winner) do it, but Cutler not.

                  For me Cutler shows not the necessary strenght for supporting him again. Cutler lead not the stronger Democrats like King or Chafee did.

  •  2014 Governor races (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Who are the Democrats that will take current Republican governors in the 2014 elections? and term limited Republicans and Democrats?

    •  what will be our vulnerable ones? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, abgin

      Arkansas, sure, but any others?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 12:24:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Va McDonnell and Az Brewer are term limited... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Crist, newly minted as a Dem, wants to take on Scott.  Strickland could consider round two with Kasich and I'd bet on Gretchen Whitmer taking on Gov Snyder in Michigan.  

      I think Kasich is a lock to be re-elected, Snyder is probably 60-40 to be re-elected and I'd say Scott vs Crist would be 50-50.  I like the Dem against Cuccinelli if Dems don't blow their primary again, and Brewer should be placed by a less crazy Republican, otherwise Carmona would beat any far right nutter GOP Gov candidate.  

      President Obama would have been a Republican in the 1980's.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 12:27:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  What???!? (5+ / 0-)

        Snyder is probably 70-30 to go down. Kasich is probably 50-50, and Crist will absolutely destroy Scott.

        If I had to say right now, I think that these states will switch parties, ordered in likelihood of switch:

        Republican to Democrat:
        Maine
        Michigan
        Pennsylvania
        Florida
        Ohio

        Democrat to Republican:
        Arkansas

        Independent to Republican:
        Rhode Island

        Rhode Island will probably be thrown to the Republicans if Chafee runs as an Independent (splitting the Democratic vote) or if he runs as a Democrat with or without another independent on the ballot (him being so unpopular).

        Other states that will likely end up being competitive are Wisconsin, Iowa, South Carolina, and Arizona. I just don't see any of those flipping, though.

        Texas could become competitive if Perry wins the Republican nomination again and Massachusetts if Brown runs for that open seat.

        New Mexico and Nevada, despite being nominally Democratic leaning states at this point, have very strong and popular Republican governors. I wouldn't waste my time against them and would instead target Arizona and South Carolina as better bets.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 12:47:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I can definitely see... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          Sheheen and Carmona being elected in South Carolina and Arizona respectively, if they run. Not as a certainty, maybe not as even money, but with decent odds.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 01:02:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Kasich surely, and likeluy Snyder will be saved (0+ / 0-)

          by economic rebound by 2014.  They're going to claim all the rightwing shit they did is responsible for the turnaround and enough folks will believe them.  

          Kasich will not make any more Koch moves over the next two years.  Snyder could be in a bit of trouble if the ballot measures make it to the ballot in 2014 because he won't be able to run from his lame duck antics now, or hope enough voters forget them by then.  

          I wouldn't necessarily disagree with your ranked order, other than switch Pa and Mi - Corbett will have trouble with women and the "just close your eyes" comment big time should he run for re-election, and I think a strong Dem could make real noise about the VoterID law and the stated attempt being to help Romney win.  

          President Obama would have been a Republican in the 1980's.

          by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 02:12:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  ... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Your comment contains two mutually exclusive assertions:

            1. You don't think Kasich and Snyder are going to lose, yet you...

            2. Agree with my rankings for seats that I think are extremely likely to flip.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 02:25:21 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  disagree on RI (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, abgin

          obviously a three-way split doesn't automatically spell doom, since it didn't in 2010...and it would be amazing if the Republican did better in 2014 than 2010.

          as for Chafee being unpopular in a 2-way, there will probably be a Moderate/indie candidate to suck away the anti-incumbent vote and you probably get a slightly closer repeat of RI-01 last year.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 09:30:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  pick up opportunities for both parties (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, betelgeux

      For GOP: I would say the best pick up opportunities would be:

      AR: open seat

      IL(if Quinn is the nominee, less competitive if it's Madigan).

      MA: an open seat

      HI: if Neil Abercrombie is the nominee and is unpopular. Even otherwise it might be competitive against another Dem if Charles Djou or Duke Aiona is the GOP nominee.

      RI might be competitive as well, but I think either Chafee retires or runs as a Dem and loses in the primary. Or his popularity rebounds and he is re-elected as an independent or a Dem.

      CT: Malloy will likely face a rematch with Tom Foley.

      GOP might also challenge first term gov Maggie Hassan in NH.

      For Dems, the best opportunities would be:

      ME: This could be a GOP loss, instead of a Dem gain, given how well Independents do in ME. I imagine King will endorse an Independent.

      MI, FL, OH, SC, PA will all probably get decent Dem challengers and all, at least now, have relatively weak incumbents. AZ could be competitive too, with Carmona running.

      •  I think Quinn hangs it up (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, betelgeux, DCCyclone

        And I don't think Hawaii will see a Republican governor in any event. It just might not be Abercrombie anymore, but instead a different Democrat. Connecticut is likely to be a very similar case as Maryland going from 2006 to 2010. We saw how that went.

        Hassan won a surprisingly large victory. I expect her to win again.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 12:49:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Regarding those 5 in your final paragraph...... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, NMLib, jncca, KingofSpades

        They're not all the same.

        Three of them seem pretty good right now:  FL, MI, and PA.  I'd say Florida is the best bet of those.  Scott is extremely weak in Florida, yet the GOP has an infrastructure advantage that is huge, one that has affected the ability to groom a bench.  We have a lot of Dems cheering the Crist party switch because of that, and very rationally so......it's possible he's our best shot and perhaps our only serious shot.  Sink lost narrowly last time, but she proved a terrible candidate and that should make everyone nervous.  But ultiake it any bey Scott has maintained continuously poor favorables from early in the the 2010 campaign through today, no improvement.  That it's been so long like this makes it hard to change it.

        Michigan and Pennsylvania look good right now, but Corbett and Snyder have time to turn things around, and had decent favorables at earlier times so voters remember liking them...that puts them in a better position than Scott.  But these are also tougher states for Republicans than Florida.  Still, I would say Corbett's been underwater longer, and probably is a weaker target......although Snyder's new troubles are fatal if they prove lasting in Michigan which statewide is a bit bluer than Pennsylvania.

        Maine really depends on how strong a candidate Dems recruit.  Cutler is about the only indy left there of prominence I believe, but without him it's a Dem pickup.

        Ohio has gotten tough because Kasich's image has recovered quite a bit.

        South Carolina is tough because it's such a conservative state, and I've said before I'm skeptical it will end up as close as last time......I suspect Haley ends up winning by high single-digits, maybe more, over Sheheen this time, even with her troubles.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 08:04:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Democrats (0+ / 0-)

      should nominate a real Democrat in Florida, not Crist. Alex Sink should run again.

      •  Alex Sink's (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, sacman701

        Campaign has widely been panned. She went through many different campaign managers and staff.

        http://blogs.miaminewtimes.com/...

        Crist is our best chance.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:15:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Alex (0+ / 0-)

          Sink lost by 1% in a huge Republican wave year. How bad could her campaign have been?

          Don't get me wrong, I'm not the type who trashes candidates in moderate or Republican states who are less liberal. But, Charlie Christ simply rubs me the wrong way. He's a nicer version of Mitt Romney. He'll do and say anything to get elected.

          •  Scott was toxic yet still won (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            She basically fumbled the ball at the 5 yard line with how her campaign ended, especially the debate "scandal" bullshit the media decided to push.

            I'm not saying she'd be doomed to repeat those mistakes, but someone who committed the biggest Medicare fraud in history should not get elected governor of the most senior state in the country.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 05:35:06 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  ....well (0+ / 0-)

          okay that article you posted convinced me Alex Sink shouldn't be the nominee, but I still think we should go with someone other than Charlie Crist.

      •  If Alex Sink doesn't run (0+ / 0-)

        I don't know who we could get.  Not sure I trust Charlie Christ.  

        We need to remember that Sink lost by 1% - and Scott did not get 50% of the vote.  

        Dems had lousy turn out - they all stayed home for some idiotic reason.  

        If they had turned out to vote like they did in '08 (didn't even have to be THAT high - but it was really, really a dismal turnout), we would not have thieving Governor Voldemort in the governor's mansion.  

        Alex wasn't the strongest candidate we've ever had, but she was basically ALL we had - she was the CFO so she had some visibility around the state - if only because her name was on the checks people got from unclaimed property.  Only time I ever got my mom to vote for a Democrat - because we had an unclaimed property "find" for mom and Alex signed the check, so she remembered her name and liked her for giving back her missing money (even though Alex had nothing to do with finding it and giving it back to her).  

        So I'm VERY interested in the FL-Gov race.  And keeping an eye on Patrick Murphy defending FL-18 so crazy Allen West doesn't try to get back in.  

        "Focusing your life solely on making a buck shows a certain poverty of ambition. It asks too little of yourself. Because it's only when you hitch your wagon to something larger than yourself that you realize your true potential." - Barack Obama

        by Ricochet67 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 06:30:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  If Murphy can hold on (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY, bumiputera

          I see him and Kathy Castor as our two best chances of winning statewide from our current House delegation.  However, if Garcia can do well and Cubans continue to trend Dem then he might have future statewide potential, but he just doesn't seem the "rising star" type as much as the other two.  It's a shame Val Demmings didn't win because she would have been an excellent statewide candidate to win the key swing region of the state, the I-4 corridor.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 06:40:52 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Weekend Entertainment: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 12:37:46 PM PST

  •  Trivia (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    In honor of the 113th Congress being seated this past week I've been trying to figure out the demographics of the new districts post redistricting.

    I don't know if this is real trivia or just some neat (and interesting) facts, but among Anglo/White Democratic representatives which two represent the least white districts? And what about on the Republican side?

    I believe I've figured out the answers.

  •  Just an FYI (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, James Allen, sapelcovits

    I said I was going on Birthright next week.  Well, I got moved to a more favorable travel group for next winter.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:00:10 PM PST

  •  Election projects/hobbies (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    I'm currently working on calculating all of the county-level (and town level for New England) partisan averages of statewide races from 2006-2012 as well as mapping that, the House of Reps vote share by county, and a comparison of both with Obama's 2012 coalition.  Soon I should have the spreadsheets uploaded so anyone can easily get election data for DRA maps that don't split counties/towns for the states without presidential or average data on DRA.

    What are some other things people are currently working on, whether it be mapping (DRA, etc.) or strategy, analysis, etc?

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:03:45 PM PST

    •  I think when I have the free time, maybe next week (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf

      I'll go through the state and color code every census block I can find precinct results for by Obama's numbers.  I think I'll try to do 10% increments.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:48:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  If you do it by loading a csv of them (0+ / 0-)

        which would be the easiest way, you should try to have more increments since going from 50% Obama to 60% is a huge jump and misses the whole Lean D and Likely D category, same for going from 50% to 60% Romney.  I usually do 12 total colors (6 reds, 6 blues) to give as much detail as possible while not obscuring it at the same time.

        If you're just doing it manually then I don't blame you for wanting 10% increments.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 05:03:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm doing it manually but would you like it (0+ / 0-)

          if I kept track of which precincts I was assigning to which blocks?  I could email it to you.  Then you could see exact numbers, or as exact as my assignments are.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 05:40:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah sure, although if precincts generally don't (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            split the census blocks, you could save a huge amount of time by just organizing it through excel so that DRA can auto-color it.  That's how I was able to do those precinct level maps comparing Obama to the partisan average on DRA, I can't even imagine how long that would take to do manually.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 05:59:50 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  doesn't seem like so long (0+ / 0-)

              if it's the only state I'm interested in doing.  

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:07:39 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  anyone know why it took the republicans 40 years (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    to win back the HoR? You could say it was gerrymandering but I have some old almanacs and I don't recall them being too gerrymandered. Even the Burtonmander wasn't nearly as bad as some of them today.

    How come the republicans didn't aggressively target seats more back then? For instance, there were a bunch of seats in Texas the republicans never bothered to target. Marvin Leath and Kent Hance for instance were elected to open seats by a relatively narrow margin in 1978. But they were both unopposed in 1980.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:06:16 PM PST

    •  Incumbency Effect (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, James Allen, sawolf, MichaelNY, jncca

      Speaking more specifically to your Texas examples, though this is probably a reason more broadly why it was difficult for them to win a majority, southern incumbents have a much larger incumbency boost than non-southern incumbents according to pretty much the entire available academic literature on this phenomena (see anything, literally, on it).

      Because they build up such large seniority, it becomes extremely difficult to dislodge them without mass retirements, mass party switches, or mass waves. Given that during this period, the south was almost uniformly represented by Democrats despite the region's trend away from Democrats in general, it was difficult for Republicans to develop a majority coalition of seats (because they were basically limited to competing for only non-southern seats).

      It took redistricting in 1992 and the subsequent retirements it brought, along with a huge wave year in 1994, to win all of these southern seats.

      The same thing happened in 2002 at the state legislative level, which, again, coincided with mass retirements because of redistricting.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:22:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Lower ideological polarization between the parties (5+ / 0-)

      enabled issues to become less partisan, so more people were open to ticket splitting.  This what allows a conservative Democrat in West Texas to get reelected multiple times, there was no equivalent of Fox News telling their voters he's a dirty stinkin' commie.  There's a reason why we saw a lot of people jump ship after 1994 or after 2010 at the state legislative level.

      Once you have ideological parties, it's much easier to demagogue issues in an organized manner which makes conservative Dems have progressively more trouble getting people to split their ticket because at the end of the day, people view that (D) as standing for liberal regardless of what that person says or does.

      Just look at the exit polls from the 1976 or 1980 election by ideology and you'll see what I'm talking about at the presidential level, especially if you compare it to today.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:27:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  2013/2014 Projections (0+ / 0-)

    2013:
    GOVERNORS

    Virginia - Former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe (D) narrowly defeats Attorney Gen. Ken Cuccinelli (R) after the Cooch refused to shift to the middle.
    New Jersey - Gov. Chris Christie (R) narrowly defeats state Sen. Barbara Buono (D) (he wins narrowly because former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman (R), despite like Christie being wildly popular, barely managed a 1% plurality victory in her 1997 reelection).
    2014:
    COMPETITIVE GOVERNORS

    Maine - Gov. Paul LePage (R) is just too unpopular to survive a strong challenge from and indie or a dem (he may survive if the indie and the dem badly fracture the leftie vote, like in 2010).
    Massachusetts - Only competitive if former Sen. (I love saying FORMER for this one) Scott Brown (R) runs. Otherwise, its an easy Dem hold.
    Rhode Island - Gov. Lincoln Chafee (I) either retires or falls in the Dem primary, in which case this is also a slamdunk for the Dems.
    Pennsylvania - I saw Gov. Tom Corbett (R) with about a 50/50 chance of survival until the NCAA lawsuit. If Dems put up someone competent, like former Rep. Joe Sestak (D), this should be a moderately easy win.
    Florida - Gov. Rick Scott's (R) unpopularity will make this a layup for the Dems, whether the nominee is Alex Sink (D) or Charlie Crist (newly minted D). However, I would prefer Sink, as she is the more liberal of the two.
    Ohio - Gov. John Kasich (R) has made some unpopular moves in his tenure, but Dems will have to fight for this one. Former Gov. Ted Strickland (D) could make a solid run, but he's relatively old (71), so Dems might want someone younger, like Rep. Tim Ryan (D).
    Michigan - Gov. Rick Snyder (R) has really done himself a great deal of damage with this lameduck session. Rep. Gary Peters (D) or Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D) could take him out if they keep the memory of the lameduck fresh.
    Wisconsin - Dems may have killed their chances at taking out Gov. Scott Walker (R) with the recall, but it could be competitive if Rep. Ron Kind (D) or former Sen. Russ Feingold (D) makes a run.
    Arkansas - Attorney Gen. Dustin McDaniel (D) really shot himself in the foot with his affair, and made this another one we will really have to fight for. He could be vulnerable in the primary to former Rep. Mike Ross (D), but he seems to be settling into the Southwest Powering Pool. A strong Repub will take this out of our hands with just moderate resistance.
    COMPETITIVE SENATORS
    North Carolina - Sen. Kay Hagan (D) outperformed Obama by about 8 points in 2008, so I don't expect much trouble here. However, that won't stop Repubs from desperately clawing at this seat. Expect a lot of outside (read: Koch) money in this one.
    West Virginia - Possible Dem replacements for Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) include Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) or former Sen. Carte Goodwin (D). Our best hope at holding this one is if Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) loses the primary to Rep. David McKinley (R). Otherwise, the seat's as good as hers.
    Lousiana - Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is likely favored to win, but would be more likely to fall to Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) than Rep. Jeff Landry (R). Don't expect the Repubs to unite behind Cassidy easily.
    South Dakota - Former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) or U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson (D) would be the most likely replacements for Sen. Tim Johnson (D). Gov. Mike Rounds won't be beaten easily, and, like in West Virginia, our best chance at this seat would be if he was beaten by a Teabagger in the primary.
    Alaska - Sen. Mark Begich (D) seems to have carved out a moderate profile in Alaska, and will have the benefit of not having the Russia-Spotter on the top of the ballot. Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R) will likely be the Repub nominee. I see this a moderately easy hold, but like in North Carolina I expect a lot of outside money for Treadwell.

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:42:36 PM PST

  •  Hey guys I'm back from my trip (4+ / 0-)

    I got in about 2 nights ago and I'm still heavily jet lagged. I woke up at 6PM today after going to bed around 4:30AM

    24, gay Atari Democrat CA-41

    by lordpet8 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 07:43:53 PM PST

  •  It suddenly occurred to me (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, betelgeux

    that there will be hardly anything for me to entertain myself with during class, now that the election is over.

  •  State Senator Chris Edwards (D-Eugene) (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, jj32, betelgeux

    chased off a burglar with a baseball bat.  I know the Portland-centric Dem community in Oregon doesn't think of him often, but he's probably the next in line for OR-04 and he has a future, if he wants it.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 09:30:43 PM PST

  •  Ohio-Initiative (7+ / 0-)

    The next attempt for independent redistricting in Ohio (which, along with Michigan, should be every year until it passes), should be in as close to the language of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission as is proper.

    It didn't have any opaque legalese, which is one of the factors that sunk the initiative this past election, and it also amended the Constitution, which immunizes it from legislative meddling. It requires substantially more signatures (385,247, vs. 120,683), but I think it could be easily done.

    The other factor is lack of money, and since this is not a general election year, I think we should hammer this hard.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 11:09:58 PM PST

  •  I'm going back to 2008 first (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    I wished that I hadn't averaged 04 with 08 when I first did this, so I'm splitting them up, 2008 first, so these are Obama's results transferred from precincts to census blocks as well as I could.  Here is how the colors translate:

    Navy = at least 85% Obama by 2-way vote
    Blue = at least 75% Obama
    Royal Blue = at least 65% Obama
    Cornflower Blue = at least 55% Obama
    Sky Blue = at least 50% Obama

    Pink = under 50% Obama
    Salmon: = under 45% Obama
    Indian Red = under 35% Obama
    Red = under 25% Obama
    Dark Red = under 15% Obama

    Cornflower Blue is the darkest blue on the following maps, Indian Red is the darkest red.

    Here's Josephine County, where I really like taking Kerry out so you can see how well Obama did in the small towns and rural areas in the north and south (which is coincidentally the Illinois Valley), significantly outperforming Kerry's numbers.  Grants Pass (pop 34,500) is the biggest of two cities in the county, and Obama only barely won a single precinct there.  The Grants Pass area is more than half of the county's population, and it's deep red for the most part.  The only other city is Cave Junction (pop 1800), which Obama narrowly won.

    Photobucket

    Here's my first map I've ever been able to do of performance in Curry County, the county at the southern end of the coast.  The county has only started making precinct results publicly available in the past year.  Like a microcosm of the coast as a whole, it gets redder the further south you go.

    Photobucket

    Here's Coos County, the main "Demosaur" County in Oregon.  Despite having both our state  house and senate district here open this year, we held both firmly.  They include Coos Bay/North Bend, and head north, but don't include Bandon.  They're the only legislative districts we have in any of these three counties.

    Photobucket

    Here's the whole of them together:

    Photobucket

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 11:46:35 PM PST

  •  Looks like the NHL lockout has been resolved. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sacman701, Danny Ricci, uclabruin18
  •  BTW, saw the Hobbit this week *no spoilers* (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico

    I thought it was great, and it vastly exceeded my expectations.  One of the things I liked best is that whereas in the LOTR films they seemed to expect viewers to have read all of the books and understand all the references and so didn't explain them.  In this film they give much more thorough background and explain a lot more.  Now I've read the four books each once, but it's been years, in fact probably 15 years or more since reading the Hobbit, so there isn't a lot that I remember, and so I appreciate that about this film.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 07:37:11 AM PST

    •  sounds like a common opinion (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      did you get a headache?

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 07:56:59 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Same here. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      I began to read all four books after seeing Fellowship, starting with the Hobbit.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 10:06:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  After LOTR, it would be hard to adapt the Hobbit (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, SaoMagnifico, sacman701

      It was written for tween-age children and had less stakes.  It was also written before Tolkien devised Middle-Earth into a complex universe complete with history, politics, and mythos.  This adaptation, as a result, performs a retcon to integrate an expanded Middle-Earth.  There are two notable deviations from the book and expanded universe, but those are spoilers.  I saw the Ralph Bakshi's animated adaptation of the Hobbit from the 70's years ago.  It was good and memorable, but had several very WEIRD parts that almost ruined it.  The fight against the giant spiders in Mirkwood for example.  Whenever one was killed, they did this inexplicable kaleidoscope thing with their faces.  WTF?!?!

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 10:44:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  3 57.5 O or higher districts in the Tampa Bay area (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, HoosierD42, GloFish

    I didn't think this deserved a diary, since I already have a map of Florida, but I drew a fun map with 3 fairly solidly Dem districts in the Tampa Bay area, although Bill Young might be able to put up a fight.


    13 is 57.8% O, 14 is 57.9, and 16 is 57.7.

  •  Joe Biden stops by Patrick Murphy fete (8+ / 0-)

    and praises him for doing the country a favor and sarcastically bemoans how we'll never know who the commies in Congress are:
    http://www.tcpalm.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 10:32:22 AM PST

  •  Max Cleland strongly supports nominating Hagel (5+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 10:35:09 AM PST

  •  Came across this the other day and was lmao (5+ / 0-)

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 11:48:20 AM PST

  •  Sandy Relief (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Diane Savino was on Chris Hayes this morning, and I have to say, I really liked her.

    I find her refusing to caucus with New York State Senate odious, but she really took it to the tool from the Center for Tax Policy.

    Although, her point about retribution for Gulf Coast states for future disaster aid made me shutter, considering that both MS and LA delegations were incredibly supportive, including Sen. Landrieu who shepherded the bill through the Senate.

    Link HERE

    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 11:48:21 AM PST

  •  Random question (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    does anyone know what the LEAST populous county in America is?

  •  ME-Sen, TX-Sen (5+ / 0-)

    It probably sounds crazy to mention these two, but they have me thinking lately. I know that Susan Collins is a popular moderate, but if someone like Chellie Pingree were to put up a serious challenge, would she be able to withstand the scrutiny that a campaign of that scale would bring? Collins is well-respected but Maine is blue and the very unpopular Paul LePage will be at the top of the ticket. To me, this has the potential to turn out similarly to 2012's MA-Sen race, as long as we have the will to go after it.

    As for Texas, I don't expect that we could actually win in 2014 (although John Cornyn isn't exactly popular, so with the right candidate, who knows). But wouldn't it be a smart move to start seriously contesting it at the statewide level? We have to start somewhere and it's going to take more than one election cycle to build the Democratic infrastructure and register our voters. Why not start now and continue to build though 2016 and beyond? I don't want to wait until 2024 for Texas to be a battleground.

    Thoughts? Am I just dreaming?

    22, PA-17, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

    by GReen4994 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:16:23 PM PST

    •  Dreaming on Texas (5+ / 0-)

      Cornyn is going to win with somewhere between 56% and 60%. He's not popular enough with Democrats to get high above that, but he's also not unpopular enough to sink below it. There's also the fact that he's lucky - in a way - to be running in the same cycle as Perry, who will draw the only strong candidate that Texan Democrats have to offer willing to run: Wendy Davis.

      It's interesting, though, that Texas has a decent (not exceptional nor large, but still decent) Democratic bench, yet hardly any of them have the desire to run statewide let alone the ability to win statewide. Lampson, Davis, both Castros, Gallego, Cuellar, Watson, Van de Putte, White, etc.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:27:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Frustrating that we have a decent bench but no (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        shot statewide. My only question then is if we don't start gradually building now, when do we start seriously contesting it? It's such a big (Republican) state that we have to start somewhere, right? Do you think that maybe waiting till 2016 (when we're not defending a bunch of seats) is more realistic?

        22, PA-17, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

        by GReen4994 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:38:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'd concentrate on registering more Hispanic (5+ / 0-)

          voters. Any amnesty would also help, but even without one, Hispanic children born in the US will increasingly reach majority and then be eligible for registration.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:46:00 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Dems have a similar problem (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          in Kentucky. The Democratic bench is huge, but instead of lining up to challenge unpopular Mitch McConnel in 2014 like they should be, the big-name KY Dems are focusing on the 2015 Governor's race. The end result is that six or seven big-name Dems will run in a nasty primary, creating disunity and weakening the nominee so the GOP will grab the Gov's seat in the general. Also, because everybody wants to be governor instead of senator, McConnel will get a free ride.

          Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

          by betelgeux on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 02:32:05 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  they won't all run in 2015. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Maybe two or three will, then they'll get their running mates, one or two of whom may be other people in this group.  Regardless, after that there'll be people who didn't get it who will be looking to take on Paul in 2016.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 02:59:47 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  I hope Wendy Davis polls well (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, betelgeux

        before she jumps in against Perry.  I guess if she loses, she won't lose her seat as it's not up until 2016.  Was her 2012 victory a surprise to you?  I know that the TX GOP were hellbent to beat her as she was a staunch Democrat in a conservative-ish seat.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:49:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Reponses (4+ / 0-)

      First, on TX: It's way too expensive to fund a statewide campaign there, just to get blown out by double digits. I'd forget about TX.

      Second, on ME: I believe Pingree would lose by high single digits, at least, if she faces Collins in a general election, but the Democrats do need to run a credible candidate in case Collins either retires or is teabagged.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:30:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Do you think LePage's unpopularity will have any (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        effect on Collins? Or is she essentially immune to his overreaches? I don't know much about Maine politics, but voters flipped both houses of the state government from R to D this past election. LePage is refusing to set up health insurances exchanges and Collins voted against the ACA. Are Maine voters supportive enough of the law that that could be a big enough issue for in the election, especially since by the time of the election many more of the law's provisions will have taken effect?

        22, PA-17, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

        by GReen4994 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:43:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  *correction, only the state House was flipped, but (0+ / 0-)

          still..

          22, PA-17, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

          by GReen4994 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:45:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  No, LePage will have little to no effect (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          GReen4994, betelgeux, jncca

          on Collins' popularity, in my opinion.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:56:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Still a popular R incumbent can lose in a blue sta (0+ / 0-)

            like a popular D incumbent can lose in a red state.

            Only it is necessary to put the right candidate, and enough financial pressure.

            I think S Collins will have a strong weakness in the financial side, because I doubt seriously that she can have the support of the red dark money, with her voting record, and knowing that she would be the first Republican going with the Democrats in case of a narrow majority. I think this was the key issue in the retirement of O Snowe. Also, we have other example in the financial weakness of A King vs the attacks of the Republican dark money, without have secured the support of external financial support of the Democratic dark money, even after a good start point by his previous popularity.

            For me ME-Sen 2014 must be a serious target. With the right candidate can be easier to win this seat than to defend others in dark red states.

            •  Money will not be a problem for Susan Collins (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sawolf, James Allen, MichaelNY

              or any other incumbent. The Republicans in Washington DC most of all want the majority - they know there isn't somebody  to primary Collins in Maine. There are quite a bit of "moderate-conservative" Republican donors left and Collins has always been a fairly good fundraiser. She raised well over 7 million dollars in 2008, a huge sum for her state.

              •  For anybody wondering (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                wwmiv, MichaelNY, jncca

                Look at PPP's last Maine poll (PDF): http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

                Susan Collins has a 65% approval rating, net +43 points.
                She leads a generic Democrat by 38 points.

                •  Let me show you some numbers (0+ / 0-)

                  O Snowe fundraising numbers

                  The 01/01/2007 her cash on hand was: $1077665
                  The 12/31/2010 her cash on hand was: $1232629

                  Not improvement in her four first years of the term. And the biggest evidence is that her fundraising declines since the second quarter of 2011:

                  1st quarter 2011: $877857
                  2nd quarter 2011: $1013416
                  3rd quarter 2011: $792305
                  4th quarter 2011: $629711
                  1st quarter 2012: $224326 (until 02/28/2012)

                  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                  S Collins is weaker still fundraising

                  The 01/01/2009 her cash on hand was: $263713
                  The 30/09/2012 her cash on hand was: $822807

                  Her stronger released quarter of 2012 was the third, where she raised $102000, far of O Snowe's numbers. But at least she improved her Cash on Hand in these four years.

            •  I don't think so (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              but I do think she is more vulnerable to a primary than Snowe was.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 04:48:41 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  voters already know that she is not like (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          GReen4994, MichaelNY, betelgeux

          LePage and that's good enough for them.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:57:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  No (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, MichaelNY

          Susan Collins beat a top tier candidate by over 20 points in a year when her party's presidential nominee was losing the state by 17 or 18 points.

          Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

          by NMLib on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 04:15:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  A lot of things changed since then (0+ / 0-)

            A lot.

            •  I agree with NMLib (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sawolf, James Allen, NMLib, MichaelNY

              Susan Collins's seat is only winnable if she retires. She's very very very popular and there are no Democrats that can beat her a la Tom Carper beating William Roth in Delaware.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 04:31:29 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think it is possible (0+ / 0-)

                Now Im sure that the Republican dark money regrets strongly to fight as hard seats like MA-Sen in 2012 and to fight not a little more seats like ND-Sen, IN-Sen or MT-Sen.

                I expect not they do the same mistake in 2014. And I hope the Democratic side do the same good things than the last cycle. Then O Snowe and S Brown were unbeatable. Now are out.

                •  Snowe retired (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  sawolf, MichaelNY

                  And there's no reason to believe that if Snowe had gotten through her primary that she would have lost.

                  And Scott Brown was a one-term incumbent who first won under circumstances that aren't likely to repeat themselves again. If anything, Collins's win in 2008 was the exact opposite of Scott Brown's win, she won amidst a strong Democratic wave in a state that her party's nominee lost by a wide margin, and against a top-tier challenger. If she couldn't even be kept to within 20 points in 2008, why should we assume that we even have a prayer of keeping her within double-digits.

                  By the way, this assumes that a top-tier candidate runs against her, I doubt that will happen just because of what happened to Tom Allen in 2008.

                  Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                  by NMLib on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 06:43:50 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  O Snowe tell repeated times she was running (0+ / 0-)

                    and she was ready to fight.

                    Until she changed her mind.

                    Why she changed her mind? I think she finds troubles fundraising.

                    I have not doubt her wish was to run and to keep the seat.

                    •  I think she would have held on easily... (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      jncca, MichaelNY

                      But I think she was fed up with the GOP forcing her to vote the party line on everything and didn't need the hassle anymore.  

                       Also I remember reading she had some physical ailments where she was in a bit of constant pain.  

                      President Obama would have been a Republican in the 1980's.

                      by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 07:21:26 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  In her statement about leaving open the seat (0+ / 0-)

                        she tells she and her husband were in good health.

                        Here’s the statement from Snowe:

                        "After an extraordinary amount of reflection and consideration, I am announcing today that I will not be a candidate for re-election to the United States Senate.

                        After 33 years in the Congress this was not an easy decision. My husband and I are in good health. We have laid an exceptionally strong foundation for the campaign, and I have no doubt I would have won re-election. It has been an indescribable honor and immeasurable privilege to serve the people of Maine, first in both houses of Maine’s legislature and later in both houses of Congress. To this day, I remain deeply passionate about public service, and I cherish the opportunity I have been given for nearly four decades to help improve the lives of my fellow Mainers.

                        As I have long said, what motivates me is producing results for those who have entrusted me to be their voice and their champion, and I am filled with that same sense of responsibility today as I was on my first day in the Maine House of Representatives. I do find it frustrating, however, that an atmosphere of polarization and ‘my way or the highway’ ideologies has become pervasive in campaigns and in our governing institutions."

                        •  Let me emphasize something here... (3+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          sawolf, jncca, MichaelNY
                          We have laid an exceptionally strong foundation for the campaign, and I have no doubt I would have won re-election.
                          Snowe said that she thought she would win, and there was absolutely no evidence at the time that she would have lost the general (the primary maybe, but even that was shaky at best).

                          Not all reasons that incumbents choose to retire have to do with being unable to win or poor health, it could easily have been that she just wanted to retire now and enjoy the rest of her healthy years not having to deal with going back and forth to Washington.

                          Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                          by NMLib on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 08:56:10 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  to lose the primary it is enough for losing (0+ / 0-)

                            the race

                            you are telling that there was some chance of her losing the primary, and that mean you think the bolded words can be wrong.

                            I also think she was wrong in that.

                          •  That's not the same thing (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            Republicans have gone crazy lately, they basically threw away a Senate seat in Delaware, which means that ruling out something like that happening in Maine would be foolish. But, that's not what we've been arguing about, it's about whether or not Snowe would have lost the general, and that remains an unequivocal no on my part.

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Mon Jan 07, 2013 at 10:14:27 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Well I was arguing that she was vulnerable in the (0+ / 0-)

                            race, because of a weak fundraising and she retired by this reason.

                          •  I know you're arguing that (0+ / 0-)

                            But none of us agree with you.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Tue Jan 08, 2013 at 04:03:49 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Do not worry (0+ / 0-)

                            I will not force you to see that Snowe retired only some month before the primary, after tell and tell she was running, and after see her fundraising declining strongly in the last three quarters of her campaign.

                            I also will not force you to see the relation in the timing of this fundraising declining and her tea party challengers entering in the race.

                            Only, when I get bored I will not tell it more.

                    •  There's no proof... (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      sawolf, jncca, MichaelNY

                      What is the evidence that Snowe was having any trouble fundraising? And what is the proof that there was any potential for Snowe to lose in a general election, against second-tier candidates (after just four years earlier, her less popular colleague wiped the floor with a top-tier candidate in a state that Obama had already won by double-digits)?

                      There's none, and Collins has shown absolutely no sign of losing any of her popularity in the state, and there's no sign that any top-tier Democrats will run against her anyways.

                      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                      by NMLib on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 08:52:57 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  You see not her numbers? (0+ / 0-)

                        The 01/01/2007 her cash on hand was: $1077665
                        The 12/31/2010 her cash on hand was: $1232629

                        Not improvement in her four first years of the term. And the biggest evidence is that her fundraising declines since the second quarter of 2011:

                        1st quarter 2011: $877857
                        2nd quarter 2011: $1013416
                        3rd quarter 2011: $792305
                        4th quarter 2011: $629711
                        1st quarter 2012: $224326 (until 02/28/2012)

                        ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        S Collins is weaker still fundraising

                        The 01/01/2009 her cash on hand was: $263713
                        The 30/09/2012 her cash on hand was: $822807

                        But at least she improved in these four years.

                        •  So what? (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          Snowe had over $1 million CoH as of the end of 2010, in a state like Maine, that's pretty good. Even Susan Collins, in her thumping of Tom Allen, only raised about $8 million, which is itself an absurd amount of money for a state like Maine.

                          And, in any case, the money question is irrelevant if Democrats don't field a strong candidate, and they won't if Collins runs. I've made this point several times now, and you don't seem to want to listen, but after Tom Allen got trounced in 2008, no other Democrat will run against Susan Collins, they (correctly) will see it as a suicide run.

                          Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                          by NMLib on Mon Jan 07, 2013 at 10:10:40 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  then can you recognize some financial weakness (0+ / 0-)

                            from the previous numbers, or you want not to listen, like you tell about me...

                            I'm telling that there is a chance with a strong candidate and enough Democratic money in the race. Obviously I think it is not correct if no other high level Democrat run for this seat. I see a decent chance of S Collins also retires if some Democrat or some primary challenger put some pressure over her.

                          •  The thing is (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            Is that there is no financial weakness here because Maine is such a damned cheap state. What she already has is enough to run a winning campaign in the state.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Mon Jan 07, 2013 at 03:58:20 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Please, look at the numbers (0+ / 0-)

                            Her fundraising down a 38% between the 2nd and the 4th quarter of 2011, and I doubt she would have more than $400000 if she ends the 1st quarter of 2012. That would be more than a 60% less.

                            The presence of primary challengers affects strongly to her fundraising. These numbers are not normal, and are not enough to face a strong spending from outside in the last months of the primary or in the las months of the campaign.

                            She was vulnerable in the fundraising front.

            •  like? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, NMLib

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 04:47:44 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Like O Snowe retiring after show wish of continue (0+ / 0-)

                Like Maine knowing the reality of having a Republican trifecta, and voting clearly against it at the first chance.

                Like the moderate Republicans becoming toxic in the Republican primaries.

                Like Maine voting more to Obama in 2012 than in 2008.

                Like to have an unpopular Republican governor, in the place of an unpopular Democratic governor.

                •  A surprise retirement is nothing new (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  They've happened throughout history.  
                  Maine was blue in 2008 and is blue in 2012; it's not very different.
                  People don't vote for Senate based on the Governor, at least not in significant numbers.

                  Moderates may be toxic, but Snowe would've killed it in her primary.  I see no reason Collins can't do the same.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                  by jncca on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 08:36:48 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  TX-that is why (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, GReen4994, betelgeux

        I don't think we'll see a campaign that could beat a good Republican candidate (meaning not Perry) for another 15-20 years, when the numbers are really there.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:45:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  ME-Sen (9+ / 0-)

      Susan Collins is effectively untouchable. We won't pick her seat up unless she retires. In 2008, we got a decent recruit in Rep. Tom Allen, and Collins was able to get 61.5% even as President Obama was winning the state with 57.6%. She overperformed John McCain by an astounding 21 points in that election. If she could pull off that kind of margin against a credible opponent in the bluest wave election in at least a generation, I don't see how she could be taken down in any other situation. We just have to hope that she'll retire. I'm a very optimistic guy, and I'm someone who believes that every race should be seriously contested. However, we cannot beat Collins. We had our best-case scenario in 2008, and we still failed miserably.

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:30:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, and she may retire. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GReen4994, MichaelNY, betelgeux

        She can make good on that oath she broke by running again in 2008.  Also, she's isolated now that she no longer has her counterpart to give her cover.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:47:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  She will have a lot of trouble with the money (0+ / 0-)

          I think this was the key issue in the retirement of O Snowe, and S Collins will have the same trouble.

          I think the Republican dark money will not support her knowing that she will be the first Republican going with the Democrats in the case of a narrow majority. They want not it. And they will spend in other things like to keep the majority in the US House, or to win the necessary senate seats, in red states (SD, WV, AK and some more).

          •  This is total speculation (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca

            Unless you can provide some actual data to back it up, I'm keen to totally dismiss the notion that Snowe was going to have fundraising issues in a state as cheap to campaign in as Maine or that Collins will have any trouble at all.

            In fact, according to the latest FEC report, Collins had $822,807 CoH with 66.7% of her contributions coming from other committees. She's going to be fine with money.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 04:39:45 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Of course (0+ / 0-)

              and also is total speculation to tell that she is untouchable.

              Do you imagine Karl Rove giving money to her? Hard time for me. S Collins has a voting record that this kind of PACs dislike strongly and will not support. The stablishment can support her, but the majority of the Republican money come from the dark PACs.

              As prove of it you has the inverse situation in 2012. King runs with little external support, and he has some trouble when the dark money begins supporting Summers. Finally, he ends having some external support, even before telling he would caucus with the Democrats.

              If the Democratic party spend enough in support of a strong candidate S Collins can be defeated. This is a fight that the Democratic party can afford.

      •  Good point. That's too bad, since our pickup opps. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, betelgeux

        elsewhere are pretty much non-existent. POLITICO just had an article about how House Dems plan to run against dysfunction in 2014. Fingers crossed that their strategy works and the Repubs' obstructionism bites them in the ass in the Senate elections too. Oh well, someone's gotta keep the wishful thinking going, it might as well be me haha

        22, PA-17, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

        by GReen4994 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 01:51:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  KY and ME (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingofSpades, sawolf

          are our best hopes for pickups in 2014, although ME will only be a possible pickup if Collins (who's invincible) retires. I'm an optimist too, and I think Collins will follow Snowe into retirement. It's got to be tiring to be the only non-insane member of your party in the senate. If Collins retires, we need to run Pingree. She's a great progressive who would win easily.

          KY is a bit of a longshot, but mostly due to lack of interest from the big-name Dems in the state (see my comment above). McConnell is pretty unpopular, and won by narrow margins in 1990, 1996, and 2008 (he got a free ride in '02). We might be able to knock him off with the right candidate, but as I said, none of them seem to want the job. Liberals are getting pretty optimistic about Ashley Judd, but I don't think she'd win in the heart of Coal Country.

          Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

          by betelgeux on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 02:41:01 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I maintain that Judd has no chance (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, sawolf, betelgeux

            Democrats might have an outside shot at Georgia if someone so extreme as to insult Georgians ends up winning a Republican primary, but that's a pretty big long shot.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 02:45:27 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Nathan Deal for senate? we can wish (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I'll be interested to see if he gets a top tier challenge again this cycle.  He only won by 10% in 2010 of all years and PPP's last poll found him with rather crappy approvals, but like Nikki Haley I ultimately think he'll get reelected thanks to the conservative nature of the state and midterm minority turnout.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

              by sawolf on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 04:41:14 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  I really wish Beshear would take one for the team (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Audrid, betelgeux, bumiputera

            and run against McConnell, I'd open my check book right now if he did.  It's a shame Rand Paul isn't up this year as I think we could very easily make a race of it, but I don't see how he loses in 2016 with a likely Republican win of >57% in the state.  Even Hillary Clinton's ceiling in the state is 45% at best, despite what early polls show.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 04:35:20 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Kentucky Democrats have had trouble (0+ / 0-)

              winning statewide federal office since Clinton, I don't blame him for being reticent.

              24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

              by HoosierD42 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 04:45:58 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Oh not at all. Beshear doesn't have any sort of (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                personal obligation any more so than you'd hope someone like Walt Minnick would have just said "fuck it, I can't get reelected so I'll vote like a liberal."  Why destroy his legacy by getting nuked by McConnell and not even win?  Although it would certainly be a very exciting race to watch.

                NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                by sawolf on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 05:01:35 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  What? (0+ / 0-)

                  You just said you wish he would run... and are now saying that he shouldn't, basically?

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 05:04:07 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  I don't think (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Beshear would ever get "nuked" by McConnell. McConnell has low approval ratings that would normally be the kiss of death for a senator who wasn't Minority Leader. We've come close to ousting him before, 2008 being the most recent example, and I think Beshear might have a fighting chance at doing it if he would only run.

                  Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

                  by betelgeux on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 07:18:46 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  He'd get nuked in that McConnell would do (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    jncca, MichaelNY

                    anything and everything he possibly could to smear Beshear's name with the several million he already has in the bank and the several millions that Republican dark money groups would pour into the race.  I didn't mean he'd nuke Beshear and Beshear would be done immediately, just that it would be a very, very nasty race.  When you're his age and the options are A) retire as a very popular governor or B) engage in a hyper-partisan and nasty senate race that will probably tarnish your legacy, you can easily see which option is more appealing to him.

                    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                    by sawolf on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 07:28:20 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

  •  Rep Tom Cotton says he would voted against (0+ / 0-)

    Hagel's nomination if he were in the Senate.

    I wonder if he is previewing a run for the Senate against Pryor next year?

  •  Any hockey fans here? (0+ / 0-)

    I just wanna get ppls take on the new CBA. I just wish they could had done it sooner.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 04:28:02 PM PST

  •  Heitkamp v. Castro (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    http://abcnews.go.com/...

    This is a very interesting clip. It seems that Heitkamp might be the newest member of the "feels free to bash other Democrats" club in the mold of Lieberman and Bayh.

    Still love her, though.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 05:15:25 PM PST

    •  What irks me is the misuse of "extreme" (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, MichaelNY, James Allen, itskevin

      although I would understand if she voted against it, don't conventionalize "extreme."  What's extreme is turning schools into a mini-war zone complete with armed guards.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 05:23:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I was previously slightly dubious about Hagel (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY

    but this AP article sold me: http://news.nationalpost.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 05:31:57 PM PST

  •  Oh. My. God. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Audrid, MichaelNY, LordMike

    http://video.foxnews.com/...

    Lord help me. Lord help my people. Lord help those who cannot help themselves.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 05:37:00 PM PST

  •  This is awesome (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GloFish, jj32, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 06:37:14 PM PST

  •  Anyone watch "Mr Cao goes to Washington" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    on PBS last night. It covered Joe Cao's improbable victory in the majority black New Orleans seat and his subsequent time in Congress. It was only an hour long but very good.

    Cao came off as totally naive at times, but he also seemed totally sincere, ethical, and hard working. He tried his hardest to connect with the districts black voters and to work with President Obama, who he constantly referred to as "his friend" and felt betrayed when the President eventually cut a commercial for Richmond. He did Democrats a huge favor by knocking off Jefferson once and for all.

    Also I have to give him props for basically telling BP representatives at a congressional hearing to go kill himself.

    Cedric Richmond doesn't come off so well, however.

  •  Nate Silver will be having an AMA on reddit (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, sawolf, jj32, MichaelNY

    Also known as an Ask me Anything, on Tuesday at 2 PM Eastern.  I may forget, but if anyone is able get any questions in there at the start, I'd be interested to see why his models so wrongly projected GOP wins in MT-sen, ND-Sen in 2012, and the CO-sen, NV-sen in 2010.

    Info: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...

    Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 08:06:37 PM PST

    •  state fundamentals (5+ / 0-)

      He put too much emphasis on them being red states (MT and ND) and not enough on the candidates.

      NV was because he relies heavily on polling, and polling was wrong.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 09:11:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Negrete McLeod (4+ / 0-)

    Next cycle, if she faces a tough race from another Dem (which I doubt), I'm going to throw her some cash:

    http://www.c-spanvideo.org/...

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 09:20:55 PM PST

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site