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As requested by King of Spades, here's my IL-10 analysis. I edited and cross posted the diary from its RedRacingHorses version, where it was cross posted from, but if you don't mind more partisan analysis, a slightly more "stream of consciousness" style version is over there. This was obviously an emotional race for me and I apologize if I forgot to edit something out.

10th District History


Illinois' 10th Congressional district has a proud history of electing thoughtful, independent leaders to the US House of Representatives. John Porter, Mark Kirk, and Robert Dold each were ranked as some of the most independent members of Congress each and every cycle. The last time a Democrat held the 10th district before today was in 1980 when Abner Mikva resigned to take a position as a federal judge after less than two terms in the House. Mikva, a former Congressman from the South Side of Chicago saw the writing on the wall when Evanston was to be removed from the 19th district after redistricting, making his reelection chances low.

Let's turn to Wikipedia for a brief history of how Mikva, a Congressman from Hyde Park, moved to the 10th district and won it thanks to his being viewed as hostile to the Chicago machine.

[Mikva] spent ten years in the Illinois House of Representatives[2] before serving in the U.S. Congress from 1969 to 1973 and 1975 to 1979. He first represented Illinois' 2nd District, which included the South Side's lakefront wards including Hyde Park, his residence and also home to the University of Chicago. Both parties attempted to redistrict Mikva out of Congress; redistricting for the 1972 elections put Hyde Park in the 1st District for the first time since 1903, which would have pitted Mikva against Democratic incumbent Ralph Metcalfe in a district with nearly a 90% black population; moving in order to stay in the 2nd District would have matched him against Democratic incumbent Morgan F. Murphy, who had previously represented the 3rd District. Mikva instead moved to the North Shore's 10th District and, after being defeated by Republican Samuel H. Young, successfully ran in 1974 as an Independent Democrat – his status enhanced in this predominantly Republican, suburban district because he was viewed as hostile to the Chicago Democratic Machine. In 1978, he was narrowly reelected against Republican John Porter in what was one of the most expensive congressional races to that time.
Even as IL-10 became more Democratic over the years with some minority growth making historically GOP townships swingy and social issues scaring off former Republicans in the district's wealthy communities, Republicans consistently eluded Democrats' well-funded attempts to win the district. The IL-10 GOP machine was one the country's best run Congressional district machines, with a group of dedicated Kirk campaign staffers running a strong race in 2006 and 2008, each time stunning national pundits by pulling out a strong, ~6 point victory. Kirk's campaign nucleus moved on to Robert Dold's 2010 campaign when, once again, the GOP proved the punditry wrong and won the district by about two points. Understandably, Dold underperformed Kirk's '06 and '08 performances but ran strongly enough in Arlington Heights, Prospect Heights, northern Mount Prospect, Glenview, Inverness, Libertyville, Palatine, Lake Forest, and New Trier Township to carry the day. Unfortunately for Dold, Bill Brady lost narrowly to Governor Pat Quinn, giving Democrats the redistricting trifecta.

Considering that almost all of Dold's strongest areas were on the fringes of the district, they could be easily chopped off in redistricting. In redistricting, Democrats removed the 10th district's tail into wealthy Inverness and middle-class and strongly GOP Palatine, which itself provided Dold's 2010 margin, its non-Glencoe (so, the largely Christian) portion of New Trier Township, wealthy and WASP-heavy Northfield, upper-middle class Glenview, middle-class and heavily locally Republican Palatine, middle class and strongly locally GOP Arlington Heights, upper-middle class and heavily Republican Prospect Heights, and part of the old 10th district's portion of Mount Prospect.

Regardless of his unfortunate circumstances, Bob Dold set out to once again prove national pundits wrong by attempting to win the new IL-10, which had been turned from a 61 percent to a 63 percent Obama district. With a well-organized campaign team, nearly 100 dedicated spring, summer, and fall interns, and a killer fundraising team, Dold was seemingly poised to eke out a narrow victory, making him an instantly formidable future statewide candidate for the GOP.

Dold's opponent, Brad Schneider, also narrowly won his primary against Ilya Sheyman, a 25-year-old MoveOn.org activist. Schneider, a businessman, was a first time candidate for public office and did not run a particularly strong campaign. Schneider was also hampered by late breaking news that his business hadn't had any employees, income, or an office in at least three years.

Dold was endorsed by every newspaper in the district (and the Chicago Tribune), most of the towns' mayors, and had one of the most independent records in Congress of any Republican.

Ultimately, Bob Dold lost by about one percent on election night while Mitt Romney lost by nearly 18 percent district wide. What went wrong, with Dold running about as strongly as Kirk did when Obama's home state boost in 2008 is accounted for?

Find out below the fold.

2012 Election Results

Dold v. Schneider

Color Scale:
Navy: 65+% Schneider
Sky blue: 50-52% Schneider
Dodger blue: 53-58 Schneider
Blue: 58-65% Schneider
Salmon: 50-53% Dold
Red: 53-57% Dold
Crimson: 57-60% Dold
Reddish Brown: 60+% Dold
Photobucket

Romney v. Obama

Color Scale:
Navy: 65+% Obama
Sky blue: 50-52% Obama
Dodger blue: 53-58 Obama
Blue: 58-65% Obama
Salmon: 50-53% Romney
Red: 53-57% Romney
Crimson: 57-60% Romney
Reddish Brown: 60+% Romney
Photobucket

Dold's performance v. Romney's (note, only the reddish brown portions were townships where Dold performed at that 8.34% rate ahead of Romney in order to win the district)

Red: 4-6+% ahead of Romney
Crimson: 6-8.33% ahead Romney
Reddish Brown: 8.33+% ahead of Romney
Photobucket

Kirk v. Seals '08 in Lake County (winner/loser by precinct)

Photobucket

Dold v. Schneider '12 in Lake County (winner/loser by precinct)

Photobucket

McCain v. Obama '08 districtwide

Photobucket

Data table used in writing this article

Photobucket

Election Results Analysis


10th district Republicans did not expect Barack Obama to reach 58+% of the two way vote share. 56%-57%, sure, but not 58+%. Had turnout have been lower, Obama would have surely ran around 56.5% of the vote and Bob Dold would have been reelected.

That being said, Dold managed to run ahead of Romney in every township of the district with at least 4.24 more of the vote than Mitt Romney, and ran an average of 7.71% ahead of Romney Dold's benchmark needed to be 8.34% ahead of Romney, meaning he needed to win .63% more of the vote on average districtwide.

Dold's strongest areas were in the southern flank of the district. Dold ran 8.58% ahead of Romney in Glencoe, the only portion of his home of New Trier Township that remained in the 10th district. Glencoe, heavily Jewish and highly affluent, is where many affluent mixed Jewish/Christian married couples move to raise their kids and is over half Jewish by total population. While Glencoe has as much to do with Highland Park as it does with Winnetka, other than its school district, Dold's being a local likely helped him, as did Glencoe's being a holdover from the old 10th district.

While its most Republican portions were carved out, Northfield Township was also kind to Dold. Northbrook was a very white and somewhat heavily Catholic (with a large Protestant population as well) suburb back in the 1970s, but new construction brought Jews to Northbrook en masse starting in the 80s and it trended Democratic. Regardless, there are still Republican sections of Northbrook and it is more Republican locally than federally. Dold performed about 9.09% ahead of Romney in the 10th district's portion of Northfield Township, well ahead of how well he needed to.

Heavily Hispanic Wheeling was tough on Dold, although he overperformed there, but the rest of the 10th district's portion of Wheeling Township was very kind to Dold and he ran 10+% ahead of Romney in Mount Prospect and Prospect Heights. Mount Prospect is a predominately white middle class suburb and Prospect heights is similar but upper-middle class. Both were settled largely in the 1960s when the Northwest Suburbs of Cook County were developed. These areas, along with Palatine, Inverness, and Arlington Heights, were once overwhelmingly Republican, but still lean Republican federally and are strongly Republican locally.

Dold ran strongly in three of the four townships with a portion of Lake Forest. Lake Forest is like a larger and slightly less affluent version of Kenilworth where land is slightly cheaper. There are no acreage restrictions like the one acre restriction in Kenilworth, so it's full of stately mansions and its predominantly WASP population is very proud of its wealth. An ordinance passed that banned new houses of worship back in the early 1900s after there were already quite a few churches in the town prevented the town from becoming heavily Jewish like neighboring Highland Park had become, and Lake Forest has been heavily Republican to this day. Western Lake Forest is comparative more new money and eastern Lake Forest is comparatively more old money, with older estates often being found east of the train tracks and newer homes being found west of the train tracks.

Shields Township contains most of heavily Republican Lake Forest and Republican leaning and less affluent Lake Bluff, but it also contains the Naval Station Great Lakes in the minority heavy city of North Chicago. Shields Township gave ~58 percent of its two way vote share to Barack Obama in 2008 but Mitt Romney narrowly won it in 2012 thanks to reaching the mid 60% range in Shields' portion of Lake Forest in 2012. Dold underperformed in North Chicago but did very well in Lake Bluff and Lake Forest. Shields Township is also home to Abbott Laboratories, one of Lake County's largest employers. This fact will come in handy later in analyzing Lake County's 2012 voting patterns.

Dold also ran strongly in Vernon Township. Vernon Township is fairly polarized with middle class Buffalo Grove, developed in the 80s and 90s, and exurban, middle class Vernon Hills, largely developed in the 90s. Vernon Hills has an abnormally high minority population, largely Indian, for an exurban area and Buffalo Grove was mainly settled by Jews who grew up in west Wilmette and were priced out of moving back to New Trier Township and by Russian Jewish immigrants. The rest of Vernon Township is fairly affluent and exurban in nature with towns like Long Grove, Mettawa (which has high minimum acreage ordinances), Riverwoods, and Lincolnshire all being friendly to the GOP. Half of Lincolnshire is heavily Jewish but the predominantly Christian eastern half leans GOP on a local and federal level. Riverwoods is a more affluent version of Deerfield, in a way, and has a substantial Jewish population but not as high of one as Deerfield has. Dold performed fairly strongly in all of the parts of the township, but strongest in towns like Mettawa, Long Grove, and Lincolnshire.

GOP leaning Libertyville Township was largely settled in the late 80s and the 90s. As Abbott Labs grew and employed more people, Libertyville became a more attractive exurban living option for it employees. Libertyville, an affluent town (but not affluent like New Trier or Moraine Townships) also is home to a number amount of teachers and other professionals who work in the northern suburbs and do not commute to the city. Neighboring Green Oaks, full of new money and large homes built in the 90s and in the past decade, is also home to many Abbot employees and Chicago Bears football players and team employees who work in neighboring Lake Forest at Halas Hall (the Bears headquarters and the team's practice facility). Democratic Mundelein, which is split between the western portion of Libertyville Township and neighboring Fremont Township, has a large Hispanic population and a more rural feel surrounding it.

In many ways, Libertyville Township and surrounding areas are the heart of Lake County, and they fittingly gave Bob Dold his strongest performance and swung hard towards Romney. Abbott fired 200 of its research and design employees last year and blamed the ACA's medical device tax. Many of these employees were Libertyville residents who took their firing (or their neighbors' firings) out on the President and Democrats and up and down the ticket.

Mark Kirk was extremely popular in Libertyville Township and its surrounding areas for many reasons, but largely because of his work on behalf of Naval Station Great Lakes and his saving of the James A. Lovell (who lives in Lake Forest) VA Clinic, Lake County's main veterans' health center.

Heavily Jewish southeastern Lake County, made up of West Deerfield and Moraine Township, was good, but not good enough for that 8.34% benchmark, to Bob Dold. Each township is predominately Jewish with a few thousand Lake Forest residents thrown into the northern portion of the heavily Democratic township. Deerfield, much like Northbrook, was predominately Christian and Republican leaning into the 80s but the 80s and new construction brought Jews, many of whom wanted a cheaper equivalent to pricey Highland Park, into Deerfield and helped the township trend Democratic. Highland Park has been heavily Jewish and Democratic for over a hundred years.

Mark Kirk ran 3.19% ahead of Bob Dold in the old IL-10, which was about ~2.5 points more Democratic than the new IL-10. However, in Moraine Township, Kirk ran ~5.3% ahead of Dold and in West Deerfield Township, he ran about 3.4% ahead of Dold. This difference was not drastic but Dold performing as strongly could have made up much of the 3,000 vote margin between Dold and Schneider. Kirk built up a reputation over the years as a fierce advocate for Israel and was known as such in Highland Park, Deerfield, and Glencoe, and performed extremely strongly for a Republican in those towns. The fact that Dold performed as well as he did in Schneider's stomping grounds in Deerfield could not have been comforting for Schneider.

Moraine Township is also home to to Fort Sheridan, a former Army fort and neighborhood of Highland Park, Lake Forest, and Highwood that was sold by the Army in 1993 and is home to Senator Mark Kirk along with the small, predominately commercial, town of Highwood. Highwood, along with small parts of Highland Park was once predominately Italian, a testament to its restaurant-based commerce. Two and more decades ago, when most of the North Shore's towns were towns thanks to Evanston's Methodist history and its status as the home of the Woman's Christian Temperance Union, Highwood stayed a wet town and therefore controlled most of the North Shore's restaurant industry. North Shore institutions like Froggy's still exist in Highwood, although the Italian population in Highwood has been largely replaced by Mexicans.

The northwestern portion of the district, making up townships like Warren, Fremont, Avon, Lake Villa, and Grant are largely exurban and middle or working class. These townships have the strongest labor presence of anywhere in the district outside of maybe Des Plaines. There's almost no one who commutes to Chicago from this portion of the 10th district that was one of the earlier parts of Lake County to be settled. Avon Township has a large Hispanic population in Round Lake and Round Lake Beach. Dold narrowly lost Avon Township by a similar amount that he lost the district by, just like Mitt Romney lost Avon Township by a similar margin as he lost the district, making it a decent 10th district bellwether, at least in in 2012. Dold won the rest of these exurban townships, overperforming Romney by around 7.1% on average. While he did not perform quite as well as he needed to, his margins were enough, so long as he didn't underperform greatly in any other parts of the district. All things considered, Dold did quite well for a Kenilworth businessman who probably had never been to Grant Township before 2012. The Dold Campaign canvassed Lake Villa and surrounding areas early and I remember marching in the Lake Villa St. Patrick's Day Parade early on in the campaign.

Dold did well enough in the townships he overperformed in to offset slight underperformances in southeastern Lake County and the areas around Lake Villa Township in the northwestern portion of the district, but his performances in the district's lakefront industrial townships of Zion and Waukegan, Benton Township, and Maine Township (Des Plaines) were what did him in. Waukegan used to be a productive industrial town, but PCB contamination (http://www.ijc.org/...) and other environmental issues, along with organized labor's influence, have caused industry to move out of Waukegan and its once booming harbor. North Chicago still has Abbott Labs, but much of its industry has also died. Waukegan, Zion, and North Chicago were also historically the end of the (now Metra) Chicago Commuter Rail train lines and therefore have had heavily black populations for over a hundred years (although it's worth noting that Waukegan is now predominately Hispanic while Zion is about evenly white, black, and Hispanic).

Dold only performed 4.28 points ahead of Mitt Romney in Zion Township and 6.14 points ahead of Romney in Waukegan Township, which also contains a large portion of North Chicago along with Waukegan. Schneider's margin in Zion was 2/3rds of his districtwide Margin and his Waukegan margin was over 3x his districtwide margin. If turnout had been lower in these cities, along with Round Lake Beach, Dold would have carried the day with ease.

Benton Township, containing Beach Park, Winthrop Harbor (which contains the largest marina on Lake Michigan), and small portions of Waukegan and Zion, was rough on Dold. A great article on the race for IL-10 started out with Dold's elementary school aged daughter finding Benton Harbor on a map and talking about how the Dolds had never been up that way before (not surprising for someone from northern Cook County). Benton Township is about equally Packers Country as it is Bears country, a testament to it being 15 minutes closer to Milwaukee than it is to Chicago. Its white portions are generally middle class (and are a lot like Saint Clair Shores, Michigan). Dold performed poorest compared to Romney of anywhere in the district in Benton Township, only running 4.24% ahead. While that wasn't particularly surprising, as Benton Township is hard to get to quickly from Dold's Highland Park campaign office and is surrounded by hostile territory in Waukegan and Zion Townships, the 14th district, and Wisconsin, Dold's performance there was underwhelming.

Dold's performance in northern Niles and Des Plaines, the Maine Township portion of the district, was also disappointing as he only ran 6.22% ahead of Romney. This area is largely working and middle class and has a fairly large immigrant and first generation Asian population, thanks to its plethora of inexpensive apartments town homes, and is fairly Democratic. Maine Township's margin was about 2/3rds of Schneider's margin.

Conclusion and 2014

Bob Dold generally ran strongly enough in the district's affluent suburbs areas, its affluent exurban areas, and its middle class exurban areas. His performance in the Cook County portion, outside of Maine Township, was extremely strong. However, his performance in the district's cities, Benton Township, and Maine Township were disappointing. High turnout, especially high for the district's minority population, thanks to the presidential election year likely doomed Dold. He would likely have won in a midterm, seeing as Waukegan and surrounding areas, Round Lake Beach and Surrounding areas, and Mundelein and surrounding areas largely stay home in off years, but the presidential turnout was just too strong for him to win a district that President Obama got to 58.33% of the two way vote share in (making the district ~D+6.5 in 2012).

If Bob Dold wants to replace Dick Durbin in 2020 or Mark Kirk in 2016 (if Kirk doesn't run again), he needs to win IL-10 back in 2014. He has a path to victory, but it's a very defined one.

Dold's path to victory is trifold. First and foremost, he needs Schneider to not work the district well. Dold, Kirk, and Porter were all very visible in the 10th district and it remains to be seen if Schneider will be. Schneider needs to boost his popularity in the district's high turnout townships, incidentally its most Republican townships, which Dold did very well in in 2012. Secondly, Schneider needs to have a voting record that is not in line with the fiscally moderately conservative district. Schneider basically needs to make a few unpopular votes. Voting against repealing the medical device tax in the ACA would be such a vote, and a Congressman whose district has a substantial medical device manufacturing industry voting against such a repeal is not unheard of (see Tierney, John). Thirdly, Dold would need to start his campaign fairly early and to fundraise as well as he did so that he can take advantage of a midterm electorate. If Dold maintains his popularity in the district through a robust campaign in a midterm, he can defeat Brad Schneider. Unfortunately, I don't think any other Republican could. Dold probably needed Mark Kirk's help to win with such a strong headwind in 2012 and, unfortunately, Mark was understandably not able to give Dold any help, other than his endorsement, after that awful stroke.

Originally posted to IllinoyedR on Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 05:32 PM PST.

Also republished by Land of Lincoln Kos.

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Poll

Will Bob Dold run again?

22%18 votes
48%39 votes
28%23 votes

| 81 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Where's "I have no idea" in your poll? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Because I don't My sister used to live in Libertyville, but she lives in Hyde Park now.

    Jon Husted is a dick.

    by anastasia p on Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 05:45:22 PM PST

  •  Quite an analysis. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lorikeet

    Something I wondered:

    Is Bob Dold related to the Tribune's editorial page editor Bruce Dold?

    "Michael Moore, who was filming a movie about corporate welfare called 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' sought and received incentives."

    by Bush Bites on Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 05:55:20 PM PST

  •  It would take quite a feat (5+ / 0-)

    for Dold to replace Durbin in 2018, since he's up for re-election in 2014.

    The reason Dold lost is pretty simple: redistricting screwed him. The Democrats were very canny in drawing their map. Obama's performance was almost exactly the same across IL-08, 10, 11, and 17. Schneider wasn't even that strong a candidate and he still beat Dold. Sheyman would probably have lost, but it would still have been a 51-49 election.

    •  This is an excellent diary (5+ / 0-)

      and very informative. Please continue this series. Maybe into suburban Philly, talking about Gerlach, Meehan, and Fitzpatrick?

      There is one thing though. Republicans should stop talking about them winning Senate seats in Illinois. Kirk's election in 2010 was the very definition of a fluke, and something like that will not happen again for a long time. Kirk's election in 2010 was a confluence of a large number of factors; namely the Republican wave, Kirk's reputation as a moderate, low turnout in the Democratic urban areas, and Kirk's opponent not running a campaign (those are the words a relative of mine who lives in IL said). And he still won by only 60,000 votes.

      Those factors will not be repeated in the future. First, Kirk is up for re-election in 2016, which is a Presidential year and so will have high Democratic turnout. This alone would doom Kirk, but additionally there (probably) won't be a 2010-style wave in 2016, Kirk's opponent will actually run a campaign, and there will be six years of Kirk voting with the Tea Party 95% of the time. Kirk is without a doubt the most vulnerable Republican senator in 2016, and I give a 75% chance of him either losing or not running.

      As for the other Senate seat, Republicans are never going to win that. First of all, Durbin is a very popular incumbent (he won 68% in 2008), and Republicans are simply never going to beat an incumbent Democratic senator in Illinois. Also, the Democratic gerrymander did a very good job of getting rid of any remaining "moderate" Republican representatives from Illinois. After all, Shimkus and Schock are right-wingers, Kinzinger and Hultgren are Tea Partiers, Roskam is in the House leadership, and Davis is unknown (does anyone know anything about Rodney Davis?)

      So I feel pretty optimistic about Democrats holding the Illinois Senate seats for a long time.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 06:31:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You are probably right (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Englishlefty, GloFish, sacman701

        and your analysis is good. However, just as Democrats shouldn't stop trying to win Senate seats in places like Kentucky and Georgia, Republicans would be foolish not to try to win Senate seats in Illinois. And I think that despite his narrow loss in the 2012 elections, a moderate like Bob Dold would clearly be the type of Republican candidate who would have the best chance to win a statewide office in Illinois. In no way do I think his defeat puts him out of the running for statewide offices, nor do I think he would have to win back his House seat in order to have a chance. His biggest hurdle, if he would like to represent the Republican Party in a statewide election, would be defeating one or more primary opponents further to the right, but as Kirk did it, I wouldn't put it past him, and then I think he might have a puncher's chance at a general election victory, depending on the circumstances.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 06:22:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  SEPA trio (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Once I spend a little more time in Southeastern Pennsylvania, I'll be happy to write about its districts. I'll be researching under a professor at my college this summer and will have a car out there at that time (freshmen can't have one). I'll do some exploring so I can write as comfortably about SEPA's townships as I can about IL-10's townships. I feel pretty comfortable analyzing eastern ChesCo, most of DelCo and Lower/Upper Merion (MontCo) but I haven't been to Bucks enough to analyze PA-08. I've also never been to Berks County.

        Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

        by IllinoyedR on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 03:00:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Another great diary (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, WisJohn

    I think another factor for Schneider(or Tierney or Esty) will, of course, will be the political climate in 2014. If Obama isnt popular and/or the economy isnt good, that will help their election bids, assuming they run.

    But if Obama's approval is good and/or the economy is continuing to improve, I think the incumbents in these Dem leaning districts will be okay. Especially if there is more GOP infighting and a sense that party hasnt really gotten its act together.

    One minor thing: Durbin is up in 2014, not 2018. So assuming he runs next year, and retired in 2020, it seems like it would be hard for a Republican to win the seat in a presidential year. But that's a political millennium from now.

    I hadnt thought about Kirk retiring in 2016. Despite my political differences with him, what he did today, and really over the last year, is pretty inspirational.

    Best move for Dold might be governor in 2014, assuming Madigan doesnt run.

  •  Excellent work and thanks for this. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Taget

    I know it's not easy in states with unincorporated land that makes it much harder to analyze.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 06:33:31 PM PST

  •  How did Schneider perform in his home of (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Deerfield village?  West Deerfield is the encompassing township.  I would ask the same of Dold, but his home (Kenilworth) was moved out.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 06:40:28 PM PST

  •  obama's coat tails (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Englishlefty

    When moderate, blue-dog Schneider defeated Sheyman in the primary, I thought, Well, that's that - Dold is getting re-elected.

    I thought Schneider ran an abysmal campaign.

    Dold had TV commercials on an entire month before Schneider. (Although those awful cutesy commercials of Dold with his mother were completely offputting!)

    Dold had yard signs the size of young billboards months before the election. When Schneider yard signs finally were available, they were ridiculous - essentially bumper stickers on stilts. I finally saw one by the Home Depot on Rt. 83 and nearly drove off the road laughing. In fact, I have never seen such yard signs for a federal office before; it's what you might have for village trustee.

    So I was completely and utterly gobsmacked that Schneider won.

    All I can say is, Obama's coat tails were HUGE in Illinois, and Schneider is one lucky SOB.

    My .02 from The Beach.

    •  ... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Englishlefty

      A few things:

      Those commercials were only off-putting because you were a Democrat. They probably tested very well for independents.

      Yard signs do not matter on iota. In fact, there's a small negative correlation between money spent on yard signs and winning. I.E. good on Schneider's campaign for not wasting the time and money to have them until idiots started begging for them.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 04:43:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  no name recognition for schneider (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        Yes, but Schneider was new to politics and Dold was the incumbent.
        If you weren't paying attention to the race until close to the election, you wouldn't even know who was opposing Dold.
        Everywhere you looked, it was Dold, Dold, Dold.
        Schneider did darn little to promote himself.
        I would point to the many other Democrat-over-Republican upsets in the Lake County area as evidence of Obama's coattails. Sam Yingling beat Sandy Cole. Melinda Bush beat Joe Neal. Terry Wilke over Michael Carbone.
        The Lake Villa-Avon township area really is still the old boys club. No way these Democrats would have won without Obama on the ticket. I think a ton of people just voted straight-ticket Dem.

    •  This seems illogical (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, GoUBears
      When moderate, blue-dog Schneider defeated Sheyman in the primary, I thought, Well, that's that - Dold is getting re-elected.
      In a district that's elected Republican Representatives for quite a while, you thought the more liberal Democrat would have stood a better chance of winning a general election? How does that make sense?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 06:24:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  populism (0+ / 0-)

        One of the reasons I think Melissa Bean beat Phil Crane was because she ran a populist campaign against him.
        The DCCC sent out several hilarious flyers of Crane as the "junket king." They were faux-vacation postcards with Crane saying "Greetings from Scotland!" or wherever and detailing how his trips were paid for by lobbyists. They even sent out a paper crown, a la Burger King. I looked forward to getting the mail that election year because they were funny and memorable!
        How disappointing that Bean then went on to serve her corporate masters, frustrating progressives in her district.
        Joe Walsh then won the district by running a populist Tea Party campaign against Bean.
        Sure, it was full of crap, but it fired up the Republican base something fierce. I know someone who inadvertently took some anti-Bean fire simply because his library hosted a consumer workshop at which Bean spoke; there were death threats against him and his staff from the Walsh crowd, and the state's attorney had to be notified.
        Had Iyla Sheyman won the primary, I think he would have stirred up progressives to do a lot more active campaigning on his behalf. Brad Schneider inspired nothing in any of the progressives I know in this area, and so I thought the district would revert to its Republican roots.

        •  Does that fact that you were wrong (0+ / 0-)

          about the outcome cause you to rethink some of your reasoning?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 01:46:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  maybe (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Schneider in his campaign ads painted Dold as a Tea Partier.

            I doubt the diarist thinks Dold was a Tea Party guy, and I don't either (although I certainly don't think that Dold was as Mr. Independent as he made himself out to be).

            But the charge probably swayed some fencesitters to vote for Schneider.

            Mostly I think it was the luck of Obama's coattails that Schneider was elected, not because he himself was especially inspiring or convincing as a candidate.

            •  Dold was tough to defeat (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              GoUBears

              So while redistricting and turnout for President Obama had a lot to do with Schneider's win, the fact that he didn't mess up in the campaign also has something to do with it. I actually doubt anyone who's posted in this thread would consider Dold a Tea Partier. But has Schneider been very liberal, he would have lost. Your district is clearly moderate, not aggressively liberal at all.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 02:40:21 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  the Illinois Republican Party machine sent out (0+ / 0-)

    a glossy color mailer almost every day replete with blatant and refutable lies about Schneider's position and/or the Democrats at large.  It was amazing.  They didn't stop coming.  

    I have to take issue with your premise here, however:

    Illinois' 10th Congressional district has a proud history of electing thoughtful, independent leaders to the US House of Representatives. John Porter, Mark Kirk, and Robert Dold each were ranked as some of the most independent members of Congress each and every cycle
    How you could depict Kirk and Dold as "independent," is--I'm sorry--laughable. Have you examined their actual voting records? Straight Rethug. Lockstep in the final votes.

    If the plutocrats begin the program, we will end it. -- Eugene Debs.

    by livjack on Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 08:54:04 PM PST

    •  I should point out (7+ / 0-)

      IllinoyedR is the same breed of Republican. And while I do not like Dold or Kirk, there are several issues, such as the environment and LGBT and women's rights, where they are independent. Now, I'm not a fan of Kirk, but Dold does seem to be the sort of guy that, if his leadership weren't so nuts, would be a respectable political opponent - a quick scan through his campaign website shows he recognises the need for infrastructure investment, reducing the military budget, closing the gun show loophole, and other issues.

      British guy with a big interest in US politics; -1.88, -4.05. A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar. The bartender says "Hey Mitt".

      by General Goose on Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 09:46:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Campaign websites v. votes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Englishlefty

        Voting history is a better indicator than a campaign platform, though there will be much overlap. Even there livjack's assertion falls to pieces.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 04:45:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  True (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingofSpades

          but I think that ties into the whole "leadership makes otherwise good guys vote in bad ways" business.

          British guy with a big interest in US politics; -1.88, -4.05. A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar. The bartender says "Hey Mitt".

          by General Goose on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 02:42:48 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  it's clear no one here has actually looked closely (0+ / 0-)

          at Dold's or Kirk's entire voting records.

          The devil is in the details.  There were many times they would vote yes on a (moderate) bill knowing full well it would never see the light of day.

          There were times when they were "released" to vote to appease the moderates because their votes might not have been required by the R's due to the overwhelming majority that could send it through without their votes.

          Tracking these bills through their various incarnations and versions is a much better way to gauge who is "independent" and who is not.  Looking at a final bill is only part of the picture.

          It's clear many people have the mistaken impression here that Kirk and Dold were "independents.  Ah, well.

           

          If the plutocrats begin the program, we will end it. -- Eugene Debs.

          by livjack on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 03:14:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  ... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Don't preach.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 03:31:13 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  stating facts is preaching now? lol. (0+ / 0-)

              If the plutocrats begin the program, we will end it. -- Eugene Debs.

              by livjack on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 09:18:58 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  You're interpreting the record in your own way (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                with nonstandardizeable methods.

                The techniques that are, again, standardized, say something completely different than yours. I tend to go with what is operationalizeable and standardized over someone random person's gut.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:18:26 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  We are no fools here at DKE (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            GoUBears

            Do you know the expression "Don't teach your grandmother how to suck eggs"? We're quite aware of what you speak of. But it's quite difficult to prove motivations for votes, so the degree to which Dold had a moderate voting record by conviction vs. release is open to conjecture, and it might be that even with a somewhat more conservative district but a less conservative Republican Party, his voting record might have been even less conservative. Who knows, really?

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 03:52:35 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  say again? open to conjecture? check the RECORD. (0+ / 0-)

              If the plutocrats begin the program, we will end it. -- Eugene Debs.

              by livjack on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 09:20:26 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I welcome your presence on DKE (0+ / 0-)

                But all of us need to play well together. Starting off by treating us with disrespect is a bad way to introduce yourself to us. And the issue is not the record, but your interpretation of it.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 06:43:08 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  "introduce" myself? I've been here three years (0+ / 0-)

                  longer than you, my friend.

                  If the plutocrats begin the program, we will end it. -- Eugene Debs.

                  by livjack on Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 11:09:09 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  "Here" meaning what? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    jncca

                    DKE isn't 3 years old. Do you understand what DKE is? We have a different culture than the main Daily Kos site.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 12:48:46 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  As much as that is respectable (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Before Daily Kos Elections (DKE) existed, it was previously a standalone website with its own commenters knows as Swing State Project (SSP).

                    It was bought out and absorbed by Daily Kos about two-ish years ago. Many of us were forced to assimilate into a website that we had long regarded as the black hole of anti-intellectual liberal online presence (rightly or wrongly). So just because we're newer does not mean that we haven't been a part of a community for just as long as you have. I, myself, have been a member of the SSP/DKE community for five years.

                    Also, a note on your comment: obviously you don't really know the DK rules given that you've broken them here. You are not allowed to put down others based on someone's user ID number and the implicit date included within. If I weren't directly involved with you in this conversation I'd feel free to HR this comment as it is clearly HRable. However, that'd also be agains the rules and, so, I'll let others make that judgment call instead.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Sun Jan 06, 2013 at 11:17:46 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

            •  You can't prove it for Dold (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, sapelcovits

              but Kirk did sell out pretty much all of his "moderate" principles when he ran for Senate. He flip-flopped on DADT and cap-and-trade, off the top of my head, and I'm sure there were other things he suddenly opposed after voting for.

    •  Not true (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Marcus Graly, MichaelNY

      I'm a Democrat, but even I know that if you look at their party unity records, these members have been some of the highest defectors.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 04:44:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  For Republicans, those guys are independent (0+ / 0-)

      We're talking about moderate Republicans, not centrists with no party allegiance whatsoever. Think Ben Nelson or Claire McCaskill, by analogy.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 06:27:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  You seem to be concentrating... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    On historically Republican, moderate seats where Democrats had close calls in 2012.  

    Can I ask you to do this sort of analysis on NY-21 next?  

  •  I may have missed it (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, GoUBears

    But all of these diaries are looking at two party vote only, right? It not, I suggest that you stick to that going forward.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 06:35:12 AM PST

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