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Cross posted on http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ which has more redistricting maps and election analysis. Also, follow my political updates on facebook: http://www.facebook.com/...

Although the 2011 redistricting season has passed and the next redistricting will take place around 2020, Minnesota has the possibility of undergoing mid decade redistricting. In 2010, Republicans and Democrats had split control of the state Government with Democrats controlling the Governorship and Republicans controlling the Legislature. Democrats now control the Legislature though so they have the trifecta. Republicans were able to retain control of the U.S. House despite losing the House popular vote by redistricting seats that were favorable to Republicans in states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Also, Republicans have done mid decade redistricting in Texas and Georgia during the 2000s so it would not be unfair if the Democrats did it. Currently, the map is 5-3 Democratic but with a bit of redistricting, Democrats can bring it up to 7-1 Democratic without splitting St. Paul and Minneapolis which is a big no no in Minnesota redistricting. I doubt Minnesota will undergo mid decade redistricting but this is the map I would recommend. In this map, besides not splitting the Twin Cities, I created a Republican vote sink in the western suburbs that combined John Kline's home with most of Michelle Bachmann's district. I also made the 3rd district more Democratic and changed its configuration greatly. The reason is that many of the incumbents such as Erik Paulsen (R) and John Kline (R) have become entrenched so I added unfamiliar territory to their districts. Anyway, here is the map.

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Statewide

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Data for the districts (the AA stands for African American.) Also, try clicking on the picture if not all the data shows up.

Minnesota's 1st District: Tim Walz (D) Rochester, southern Minnesota (blue)
Although this district barely voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, Walz should probably win here. He has become entrenched after his 2006 win and won easily in 2010 and 2012. This district undergoes minimal changes, losing two conservative western rural counties and replacing them with two conservative counties Sibley and LeSeur. They do not alter the district makeup much and Walz keeps most of his constituents.
Likely Democratic

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Twin Cities and exurbs

Minnesota's 2nd District: Vacant Northfield, Dakota County, Washington County (green)
This district contains parts of Rep. John Kline's (R) current district but Kline may not run here because this district supported Obama by 9 points in 2008 (Obama won Minnesota by 9 points in 2008 so this matches his statewide average,) and Kline's home of Lakeville is in the more conservative 6th district. Kline faced a tougher reelection campaign than expected in 2012, winning with 54% of the vote. This new district though adds unfamiliar territory for Kline where he is not entrenched while eliminating Scott County which gave him a 17,000 vote margin (his overall margin was 29,000 votes.) The 2nd district also loses conservative parts of Dakota County. Kline won 52% in Dakota County. The district retains Democratic parts of Rice County though which voted 40% for Kline. The 2nd district also adds new territory including central Washington County as well as some Democratic leaning St. Paul suburbs in Ramsey County. These voters are unfamiliar with Kline and it will be harder for him to win them. The 2008 Obama percentage goes up from 51% to 53% as well. The higher percentage may encourage some strong Democrats to run which will be hard for Kline because he has not faced a tough challenge since 2002. If Kline opts for the 6th district, he will have a difficult primary with Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R) but since most of the new 6th district is new territory for her, she may have trouble winning the primary, especially if she is too extreme.
Tossup/Tilt Democratic if Kline runs, Lean Democratic if not

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Twin Cities Inner core

Minnesota's 3rd District: Vacant Brooklyn Park, Coon Rapids (purple)
Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) will probably run in this district after it is increased from 50% to 56% Obama but he probably will lose. The reason is that he was entrenched in a swing district that contained the outer suburbs in Hennepin County so he did well there but the 3rd district adds a few other heavily Democratic suburbs bordering Minneapolis. The 3rd district also loses the conservative exurbs in western Hennepin County including Eden Prairie, Paulsen's home. These stronger Democratic lines should attract a strong Democratic challenger instead of the token opposition Paulsen faced in 2010 and 2012. The 3rd is at 56% Obama even without splitting Minneapolis and although it splits counties, I had to do so for population reasons.
Lean Democratic

Minnesota's 4th District: Betty McCollum (D) St. Paul, northern Anoka County (red)
This district loses most of the close in St. Paul suburbs and gains conservative areas such as northern Anoka County and Isanti County to remove them from the 6th and 8th districts. These changes bring down Obama's 2008 percentage to 58.7% and his 2012 percentage is probably 56%-57%. St. Paul does not ticket split in local races and it has high turnout so it should be enough to anchor McCollum. She may have to fight a bit more to keep her seat but she should still win.
Safe Democratic

Minnesota's 5th District: Keith Ellison (D) vs. Erik Paulsen (R) Minneapolis, Eden Prairie (yellow)
I placed Paulsen's home in this district but I doubt Paulsen would run in this district which voted 68% for Obama. The 5th district becomes more Republican by losing Democratic suburbs and gains western Hennepin County which is exurban, conservative and resembles Sherburne County more than it resembles Minneapolis. These exurban areas also are staunchly Republican (especially in local races unlike the 7th district which is Republican nationally but Democratic in local races.) These changes make the 3rd district more Democratic while keeping the 5th safely in Democratic hands. The 5th also does not split any counties and it splits as few towns as possible, keeping Eden Prairie and Bloomington 100% intact.

Minnesota's 6th District: John Kline (R) vs. Michelle Bachmann (R): Lakeville, Carver County, Sherburne County (teal)
Bachmann and Kline will probably face each other in this extremely conservative district. It is 1 point more Republican than Bachmann's current district so Bachmann would be even safer here. I wanted to sacrifice her though for opening up the 2nd and 3rd districts to Democratic challenges. Also, Kline's home is in the district so he may prefer to run here and he would face an easy reelection if he won the primary. Bachmann will be able to fundraise easily but if the Republican Party does try to moderate itself, Bachmann may be in trouble. She is not popular in her district after her Presidential run (she won by only two points in 2012 despite her money advantage,) so if Kline can exploit that (and win big margins in his current district and Carver County which he represented until 2010,) he could win. If Bachmann wins the nomination, this district is even safer than her current one so she would fight close races but probably win.
Safe Republican with Kline, Likely Republican with Bachmann

Minnesota 7th District: Collin Peterson (D) west Minnesota (gray)
Besides trading a few counties around the edges, the 7th district remains the same. These counties may lean Republican but they are strongly Democratic in statewide and local races. It is still Republican leaning but Peterson is very popular and he should hold it as long as he is in office.
Safe Democratic with Peterson, Tossup without Peterson

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St. Cloud area

Minnesota's 8th District: Rick Nolan (D) St. Cloud, Duluth, northeastern Minnesota (light purple)
I strengthened Nolan a bit by removing fast growing exurban areas in Chisago and Isanti Counties. I then added St. Cloud which is a swing area (the counties around it are Republican because the exurbs there are conservative even though the city of St. Cloud is pretty even politically.) Besides these changes, the district remains centered around the Iron Range. Nolan performed fine here in 2012, winning by 8 points against former Rep. Chip Craavack (R) but this district is still moving away from the Democrats so removing Isanti and part of Chisago will help Nolan because those areas are fast growing and trending Republican quickly.

Poll

How many seats do the Democrats win?

0%0 votes
12%4 votes
40%13 votes
40%13 votes
6%2 votes

| 32 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

    by Alibguy on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:50:06 AM PST

  •  Just a question: what do you mean by "big no-no" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OGGoldy

    in splitting Minneapolis and St. Paul?

    We don't want our country back, we want our country FORWARD. --Eclectablog

    by Samer on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:57:52 AM PST

    •  It's Tradition (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      OGGoldy

      There are a good number of states that have it:

      In Maryland for example, legislators don't split the eastern shore during redistricting due to tradition.

      In Nevada, tradition prevents legislators from placing Reno and Las Vegas proper in the same district.

      There are just a few places politicians do not like to split while doing redistricting and Minneapolis and St. Paul traditionally don't get split.

      Redistricting has lots of quirks but I hope this helps explain it.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:04:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nevada "Tradition" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        Since Nevada had only one seat in the House as recently as the 1970s, I'm not sure how strong this "tradition" is.

        •  Id also add that tradition has less to do with it (0+ / 0-)

          and it simply comes down to common sense map-making.  It'd take quite the gerrymander to put Reno and Las Vegas in the same district and it'd be viewed as gerrymandering if Minneapolis or St. Paul are divided amongst more than one district.  Mpls is just under 400k, St. Paul is just under 300k; with districts being between 650k and 700k, there is absolutely no reason to divide either city.  And in Minnesota, it comes off as tradition but I'd argue it's more of a political liability if either party were to split these two municipalities for their own political map-making gain.  It's a fear based tradition, if anything.

    •  No Splits (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      OGGoldy, CF of Aus

      Carving up the Twin Cities into pieces is never going to happen here. Each is a very strong community of interest. That has also kept them from being combined into one district (despite Republican attempts).

      Though that could change when we go down to 7 districts after 2020.

  •  Couple points (0+ / 0-)

    I do appreciate that you didn't split Minneapolis and St. Paul, as neither will ever happen. I don't think you're going to find too many legislators willing to split Ramsey County at all, though.

    MN-3, Edina is already in MN-3, contrary to your write up, and its not really that Democratic leaning. It was represented by Republican Keith Downey before this year, and he succeeded another Republican via primary. It's a fairly balanced city, really.

    MN-5. I like the fact you kept Minneapolis together. The.district is really ugly though.

    MN-8. Chisago and Isanti Counties aren't growing anymore. They grew rapidly from the mid-90s up until about 2007, but when gas prices spiked and the housing market crashed, the house developments stooped mid-construction, and many of the McMansions lie vacant today. Both counties saw an absolutely drop in vote totals from 08 to 12, which is not a sign of rapid growth.

    •  Good point about Chisago and Isanti (0+ / 0-)

      I still wanted them out of the 8th though because they helped Craavack win.

      Thanks for the point about Edina. As for the 5th, yeah it could look a bit better but I wanted to keep the exurban areas out of the 3rd.

      Yeah splitting Ramsey County will not be easy but hopefully easier than splitting the Twin Cities. Thanks for the input!

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:34:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Edina (0+ / 0-)

      The northeast corner is in MN-5 and the city is definitely not considered a balanced city.  It was one of the only suburbs that voted for Kerry in 2004, Obama just barely got into the double digits in 2012 and he won it by around 6% in 2012.  So it has officially gone from Republican to DFL at the Presidential level.  Locally, Keith Downey only won because he got lucky.  First in 2008 because the GOP inc. ran as an Indy and he and the DFL candidate split the vote for Downey to win, and then 2010 was 2010.  He lost in 2012 because he was never meant to be a politician representing Edina, particularly with his far-right wing viewpoints.  It was also my experience working retail in Edina for a year that helped me conclude that compared to any state that has voted on a same-sex marriage amendment, MN had more institutional advantages.  The Republican base is located in the most highly educated area of the state and without them on the marriage amendment vote, how do conservative ideals win?  From my point of view, the only way Edina could be considered a swing city at this point is because we can't win it at the gubernatorial level here, which could change if there wasn't an Indy candidate to suck-up votes.  

      I can also say after getting to know the rich assholes that live in Edina, they are very unique voters, as are many in the western suburbs.  Socially liberal, economically conservative voters who also don't buy into the nonsense that government doesn't work.  The people of Edina see their street plowed and they know government can be effective, they just don't want to get taxed more to help what I assume they perceive to be poor people who are lazy asses.

      MN-8: That's really interesting there was a drop in number of votes!  The NW exurbs still saw a slight increase in voters, surprising the northern exurbs would see an absolute drop.

      •  Also should add (0+ / 0-)

        that the populace of Edina is getting older with fewer families moving in and Edina's geographic location makes it perfect for older people (outside of the hectic city but close enough to all of it's amenities).  With the 65+ demographic typically being one of the strongest age demographics for the DFL, the city is becoming more DFL.  I personally think this demographic trend could change as I think, business wise, it'd be very smart for the Minneapolis apartment boom to trickle to Edina's France Ave as people like me would totally rent an apartment here so we could be in a fabulous suburb yet only be 40-60 blocks south of downtown.

      •  I can throw a rock to Edina from my place (0+ / 0-)

        It certainly is not the DFL bastion you're implying it is. Did the city love Obama? absolutely. However go back a cycle and look at the bloodbath the statewide and local DFL ticket did in Edina. All statewide DFLers lost the city, although Swanson was close, and it went Republican at the legislative and congressional level from Downey to Paulsen. Is it Maple Grove or St. Bonifacious? Absolutely not. But it isn't St. Louis Park or Columbia Heights either.

        •  I got it (0+ / 0-)

          Someone else explained Edina to me in the comments.

          For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

          by Alibguy on Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 08:31:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Never mind (0+ / 0-)

            I thought it was a response to me.

            Anyway though, you guys certainly Edina better than me since I'm not a native Minnesotan but it looks like it's trending Democratic, even if it's not there yet and since it's Democratic on a Presidential level, it should not be too long before it trickles down to the local level.

            For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

            by Alibguy on Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 08:38:46 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  I think your last sentence is great (0+ / 0-)

          as Edina truly is in it's own class.  It really does depend on the race and the DFLer that they'll vote for.  One thing I considered was, do I think Edina will vote for Al Franken?  No.  But I think it's hard to see us losing at the legislative level now barring a wave year.  Keith Downey lost his own district in his bid for state senate and we picked up his old seat comfortably.

          •  One other thing to add (0+ / 0-)

            is that maybe Edina being politically weird is actually a new class of politically weird suburbs.  It'd be a small class, but Minnetonka, Edina, and Eagan are definitely in their own category.  Can't help but wonder if Bloomington should be included here, as well.  Problem with Bloomington, of course, would be that it's such a big city that the eastern portion is very politically different than the west side.

          •  Downey (0+ / 0-)

            The senate race cost more money than the entire 4th congressional district. Backers of Franzen and Downey dumped huge sums of money into that seat because it was so competitive.

            And yea, the DFL won Downey'a house seat... with a former Republican representative from the same seat. I would caution against using that as a metric for a shift in Edina, as it is easily attibuted to a long-term personally popular politician changing the letter in front of his name on the ballot.

  •  extra note (0+ / 0-)

    Bachmann is from Stillwater in your MN2. So while she bailed on Stillwater when it went into MN4, it would be a bit logically inconsistent if she went statewide instead of running in a state-avg district. Even if she couldn't win either.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 02:22:47 PM PST

    •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

      I know she lived in Stillwater before redistricting but I thought she left after her home was moved into the 4th. She wouldn't run in the 2nd though, she nearly lost in a 55% McCain district so she would probably do worse in a 53% Obama district.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 02:30:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nice job (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, Alibguy, Englishlefty

    I do wish, though, that the DFL would finally grow a pair and split St. Paul and, especially, Minneapolis.

    •  The DFL actually works really well (0+ / 0-)

      When outside forces keep their hands (and dollars) away. 2012 was a remarkably successful year for the DFL statewide.

    •  Splitting St. Paul makes absolutely no sense (0+ / 0-)

      It's hard to imagine a scenario where St. Paul is split up with there being no other way to create the same political outcome that doesn't involve splitting the city.

      Splitting Minneapolis, that's a different story and, I think DFLers would be fools to not consider such an option.  The political mapping outcomes are one thing, but doubling the number of Minneapolis Congresscritters doubles the amount of power the largest city in the state has in the House.

      •  That's a good idea (0+ / 0-)

        It would increase Minneapolis power and it would make the 3rd district safely Democratic.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

        by Alibguy on Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 08:40:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Interesting but.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OGGoldy

    ... will never happen.  A mid decade redistricting would be extremely unpopular and would probably cost Dems control of the state legislature.  Not worth it and just not the way things are done here.

    Looking ahead to 2022 the big question will be if Minnesota loses a seat (very likely) will Minneapolis and St Paul be combined into one seat? Honestly from a COI standpoint that would probably make a lot of sense.

    it's all in the game yo

    by Minnesota Mike on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 06:27:45 PM PST

    •  It will be interesting to see how it's handled (0+ / 0-)

      It will certainly have to be a metro seat, as the population distribution is certainly not capable of supporting a 5-2 metro-outstate delegation.

      •  To drill down (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        larcae, Englishlefty

        Minnesota has a 2-3-3 urban-suburban-rural delegation. Democrats won't let the two twin cities be combined in a single district. The suburbs are the only part of the state that is actually growing. That leaves a rural seat as the logical target.

        •  It can't happen (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Minnesota Mike

          up until 2002, there were 4 outstate seats. after the 2000 census, that was deemed unsustainable because of population shifts. Because of that, a lot or rural areas ended up in suburban districts, particularly parts of Stearns County, Rice, Leseur and Wabasha Counties. if you remove another rural district, you would have to have 5/7 of the state in metro districts which would mean stretching metro districts from Rochester to Alexandria and Duluth. That simply won't happen, as the population is really close to 4/7 centered in the metro area, but still not quite there, and would require a sliver or two of oustate area to be in a metro district. Be it an urban or a suburban seat, any eliminated seat will have to be a metro district because of pure numbers.

          •  Absolutely agree (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Alibguy

            It absolutely 100% has to be a metro seat that is eliminated and I'd guess it'll be MN-6.  The district is already a hybrid of suburbs 15-20 minutes north of St. Paul or Minneapolis all the way on over to rural areas that would take almost two hours from Minneapolis to get to.  Such an easy district to divide up amongst almost every other district.

  •  love this (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    You think more outside the box then I have in my previous attempts to do a re-draw, with the justification being Dems now have the trifecta. Like you mention, while it's certainly doable, that doesn't mean Dems should do this because it isn't why they were elected and there would be backlash in a good government state.

    Pretty sure that this map does Bachmann in. I'm not even sure she'd run in your 6th district because she still lives in Stillwater, which is nowhere near your 6th now. Stillwater isn't in the 6th now, but it's fairly close, geographically.

    I worry about your 1st becoming Republican when Walz retires but if Rochester continues to grow and trend Democratic, we should be okay.

    I love your 3rd and 5th. Edina isn't that Democratic (only areas east of 100 and north of the crosstown) and the current map actually splits Edina. The 5th obviously isn't a COI district but given the objective, that's fine with me.

    The only "rule" you violate is splitting Ramsey. Considering other rules that you followed (Minneapolis and St. Paul are whole, Hennipen County is only split once, etc), I would hope the Democrats here would be willing to get some backbone and break what is probably the least ridiculous rule (from a political standpoint).

    •  Good feedback! (0+ / 0-)

      Yeah, splitting Ramsey was tough but I needed to find a way to get extra Democrats into the 2nd. Although Bachmann does live in Stillwater, I don't see her going in the 2nd because it supported Obama by 9 points and she nearly lost in a district McCain won by 12. Since Kline's home is in the 6th though, it may be easier for him to win in that district.

      Thanks for the point about Edina.

      Yeah, I doubt Minnesota would do mid decade redistricting, I do not see the Democrats getting away with it like the Republicans did in Texas and Georgia.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 09:43:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd say MN-2 is overly Democratic (0+ / 0-)

        as it won't take that Democratic of a seat to beat Kline.  Although, if you don't include any of Ramsey County, that'd drop the DFL % quite a bit and would re-scramble your map so I'm not sure how that'd all play out.  

    •  Rochester has grown by over 20% since the 1980's (0+ / 0-)

      And considering the anchor of all this population growth is the healthcare industry, it should be expected that MN-1 will continually get more DFL because of Rochester's population growth.  And this iteration of MN-1 actually makes the district more DFL.  Even if it picks up central MN territory that is very GOP, the loss of a few SW corner counties makes it worth it.

  •  Great map! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alibguy

    No splitting of major cities and definitely a solid 7/1 map.  The poll shows many don't think it'd get seven Democrats but I'm very confident that it would.  Paulsen can't survive that type of top ticket headwind and Kline is too conservative as is and he'd draw a tier one challenger under this scenario.  Assuming the DFLer isn't immediately torpedoed for a mid-decade redistricting pr debacle.

    The only thing I would try, and I'm not sure how well it'd work with how you've got your map set-up, is to have MN-5 connect to the Lake Minnetonka areas going north versus south.  While MN-3 would probably become a tinge more Republican, I think that since a district in Minnesota has an African-American representative, it's important to put what few African-American dominated precincts there are into this district.  Going north means being able to make that so and it can probably be done in a way that doesn't effect the over-all goal of defeating Rep. Paulsen.

    •  I presume you're talking about (0+ / 0-)

      Brooklyn Park and Brooklyn Center. Ellison will scream bloody murder in Amy district that runs out west to the Wright County border. He may not be DOA in a primary, but his electoral prospects would dim significantly if he were challenged by a suburbanite. Ellison wins by lopsided margins because of the nature of the district, and he is not remarkably popular with the local DFL powerbrokers, and he was not the preferred candidate in 06. If you dilute the district with more suburban voters, there is a fair chance he loses a primary, although he would still be initially favored against any suburbanite DFLer in this.kind of district I can think of. Although if Rybak ran against him, he would get demolished in a primary. That won't happen though, as Rybak is one of Ellisons few prominent allies.

      •  Who was the preferred candidate? (0+ / 0-)

        I also think it's hard to see Ellison losing a primary simply because few would be able to A. win the endorsement or B. would have the resources to bypass the endorsement.

        •  Ellison is not a huge fundraiser (0+ / 0-)

          And he is fairly lazy as a candidate in his safely comfy seat. He would be hated the western arm of this diary's 5th district, which make make the district.uncomfortably close, although its hard to see any DFLer actually losing it.

          And as for 06, the preferred candidate was DFL chairman and former Sabo Chief of Staff Mike Erlandson. There was a fractured convention that took a lot of ballots to dole out an endorsement, which went to Ellison late late at night. The.convention left so bitterly divided that three serious candidates, including Erlandson went on to challenge Ellison in the primary (for those unfamiliar with the nominating process in Minnesota, this is a BFD). Ellison won a narrow plurality against Erlands on with something like 35% of the vote, he he certainly would have lost head-to-head against any of the primary challengers (there was also a state senator and a Minneapolis city councilman, although their names escape me at the moment). The primary was bitter enough that Martin Sabo himself (a serious long-time kingpin of Minneapolis politics) all but endorsed Independence Party candidate Tammy Lee, who herself is actually a liberal Democrat in her own right.

          Long story short: Ellison is very weak within his own party, even today, and if his district were seriously redrawn, hw may very well be ousted.

          •  Senator and Councilmember (0+ / 0-)

            You are thinking of former State Senator Ember Reichgott-Junge and former Minneapolis City Councilmember Paul Ostrow. Ostrow was just on the fringe of serious, only pullin gin about 5% of the vote.

            I think Ellison has done quite a bit to improve his standing with local democrats though. His campaign was very active this year in working against both constitutional amendments, and Keith will always show up to any party function and give one hell of a speech to fire up the crowd. I think post-2006 things were like you say, but now I get a sense that Ellison has really locked down a lot of the people who previously were skeptical of him.

            •  His standing has certainly improved with the base (0+ / 0-)

              But the Democrats you find in western Hennepin County are hardly base voters. Granted, there may not be enough of them to skew the primary, but Ellison wouldn't like it regardless. He may lose places like St. Bonny, Medina, and Rogers 5:1 in a general election (normal DFLers lose these precincts 2:1 or 3:1 on a bad day), which may make Ellison have to campaign to stay above 60%, which is where he would likely feel safe. If you thought McCollum screamed bloody murder when Stillwater was put into her 4th district, imagine how Ellison will howl if he is asked to run in Independence and Minnetrista.

    •  Good point (0+ / 0-)

      I thought about that but I wanted to keep Eden Prairie out of the 3rd district because that's Paulsen's home and voters are very familiar with him there.

      Also, if I added Brooklyn Park to the 5th district, I would have to county split somewhere since Hennepin County does not have enough population for two districts. I could add some Anoka County suburbs to the 5th such as Fridley and Coon Rapids but by then, the 5th may have too many people to make a large dent in the western Republican areas in Hennepin County. The 3rd also may have to go into   northern Dakota County and since those parts of Dakota County lean Democratic and are in the 2nd, I would want to keep those areas in the 2nd to make it as Democratic as possible.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 08:55:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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