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9:59 AM PT: MA-Sen: I guess the games can finally begin: On Friday afternoon, Barack Obama will reportedly nominate Sen. John Kerry as Secretary of State, to replace Hillary Clinton. If he's confirmed by the Senate, then Gov. Deval Patrick will appoint a temporary replacement; a special election to fill Kerry's seat will take place later this year. The seat will then be up for grabs once more in 2014, for the final two years of Kerry's term, and then again in 2016 for the next full six-year term.

Speculation about potential appointments and special election candidates has already run rampant, but let's see if Kerry actually gets the job. Given what already happened to Susan Rice and what's happening now to Chuck Hagel—and just given what the modern Republican Party looks like—I'd say his confirmation is no sure thing. Of course, the GOP may decide not to put up a fight simply to give soon-to-be-ex-Sen. Scott Brown a crack at winning back a Senate seat. We'll soon see.

10:25 AM PT: Babka: In case you missed it, Jeff just posted the results of the Daily Kos Elections 2012 predictions contest. Congratulations to our winner, StephenCLE, who nailed 36 of 40 races, narrowly beating out two others on the tiebreaker question to earn the babka! Click through to see how you did!

10:33 AM PT: NJ-Sen: While Cory Booker rather transparently tried to make it seem like he wasn't hoping to shove Frank Lautenberg out the door with his announcement on Thursday that he's "exploring" a run for Senate, and while Lautenberg's camp responded with equanimity at first, it looks like that brief moment of détente may already be fraying. On Twitter, Lautenberg joined those hammering NRA chief Wayne LaPierre for his widely-panned public statement on Friday, while Booker reacted by saying: "Can't agree with much NRA head is saying right now BUT yes, I agree lets improve fed background checks for those mentally unfit to buy guns." That prompted Lautenberg to fire back: "Nothing they spew should be validated." Be curious to see where this all goes.

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, entirely predictably, is backing Lautenberg for re-election, explaining: "I always support incumbent senators." Of course, he's saying that publicly; who knows what, if any, behind-the-scenes maneuvering is going on.

11:08 AM PT: Census: The Census Bureau is out with their new state-by-state 2012 population estimates, the second such update we've gotten since the full-blown 2010 census which was used to reapportion the House of Representatives. Here's a Google Doc of the main chart with each state's population figures; I've appended the 2011-12 growth rate in the far-right column. (You can also explore the bureau's complete datasets, as well as all sorts of maps.) The fastest increase over the last year belongs to North Dakota, at 2.17 percent, thanks to the booming oil industry in the western part of the state, with Washington, DC, interestingly enough, very close behind. (Here's a good news report on what North Dakota's growth has looked like.) At the other end, Vermont and Rhode Island were the only two states that saw population decreases.

Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics' Sean Trende decided to have some fun with these new numbers, extrapolating out recent growth rates using a few different models to see how reapportionment might play out in 2020. For those who follow demographic trends, the winners and losers are pretty predictable, though notably, looking just at 2010 to 2012 growth, New York would not lose a seat (whereas it would under Trende's other scenarios). Of course, as Trende acknowledges, it's awful early to predict what will happen at the next census, but he notes that by 2003, we already had a decent sense of what 2010 would look like, so these projections can offer some meaning.

11:17 AM PT: NC-Gov: This is a little outside our normal scope, since it's more governmental than electoral, but it's amazing enough that it merits a mention here: North Carolina's new Republican governor-elect, Pat McCrory, has just named wealthy conservative activist Art Pope as his "top budget-writer." To analogize, this would be like President Romney naming David Koch as his OMB director—Pope is simply a homebrew Koch bro focused largely on poisoning North Carolina rather than the nation as a whole. When we talk about elections having consequences, hoo boy—this is exactly what we mean.


11:31 AM PT: WATN?: Hah hah! Just as predicted! Soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Chip Cravaack is getting set to bail on his nominal home state of Minnesota following his lost last month to Democrat Rick Nolan and head off for the mountains of New Hampshire. During the campaign, Cravaack's commitment to the Land of 10,000 Lakes was repeatedly questioned because his wife, who works in Boston, decamped for the northeast, taking their two children. Assuming Cravaack joins them, which sounds likely, that means he definitely won't seek a rematch against Nolan in 2014.

11:42 AM PT: SC-01: This would be too much fun: According to unnamed sources, South Carolina's The State reports ex-Gov. Mark Sanford is "90 percent certain to run" in the 1st District special election that will be necessitated by Rep. Tim Scott's elevation to the Senate following Jim DeMint's expected resignation next month. Even more amazing is the possibility that Sanford's ex-wife Jenny could also run in the Republican primary, and as unlikely as that is, it would be so amazing that I might actually have to expend a little mental energy rooting for it. One interesting side-note: Sanford still has $100K left over in a federal campaign account from the last time he ran for re-election to Congress, over a decade ago. And I'd really love to see him win, since he's exactly the kind of dystopian wrecker who would make life absolutely miserable for John Boehner. Bring it on!

12:01 PM PT: IL-Gov: Can someone tell me why this story has started making news all over again? Back in November, former Obama chief of staff Bill Daley said he was considering a run in the Democratic primary against Gov. Pat Quinn... and now he's again saying the same thing but has managed to wring a whole new round of news coverage despite their being no new news. Ordinarily, I might chalk it up to it being a slow time of year, but with the fiscal cliff and Newtown tragedy, I don't think you can say it is. Anyhow, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead, too.

12:26 PM PT: KY-Sen: Is Mitch McConnell playing with fire? On Thursday I wondered why he'd release internal poll numbers showing himself up just 47-43 over actress Ashley Judd, after his own campaign squealed like mad about identical results from PPP just a week earlier. I mean, those are crummy numbers no matter who comes up with them, so why put them out there? Well, Josh Kraushaar speculates that McConnell is trying to rope-a-dope Judd into the race, saying that unnamed "McConnell insiders" privately are "rooting Judd on, convinced her liberal views would make her a sitting duck in such a conservative state."

Okay, I guess I could believe it, as far as it goes. But there's a huge problem with this theory: If you're trying to con someone into running against you—picking you opponent, Harry Reid-style—you can't alert them to the con! Yet that's exactly what these supposed insiders have done, by chatting up Kraushaar and then by releasing some additional results following negative message testing (Judd "lives in Scotland" and believes the "era of the coal plant is over," etc.) that give McConnell a 56-36 edge instead.

You don't put out data like that to sucker someone in—you put out data like that to frighten someone off! So either the McConnell campaign has no idea what it's doing (which figures, since this is probably what they teach at Republican Campaign Manager School), or they think they're playing some kind of deep game by trying to mess with Judd's mind. But this certainly ain't no rope-a-dope as Ali would have recognized it.

12:37 PM PT: Now that Kerry's officially been nominated, the Great Mentioner can spin up into an even more manic gear than before. Fortunately, the Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy has already done a very good job of rounding up the main names that have been circulating:

On the Democratic side, there are two Kennedys mentioned: Ted Kennedy, Jr., son of the late Senator, and Vicki Kennedy, the Senator's widow. Ted Kennedy, Jr. is thought to be more interested in the seat than Vicki Kennedy is. His challenge is that he currently lives in Connecticut where he owns a health care consulting firm. Other potential candidates include: U.S. Reps. Michael Capuano, Stephen Lynch, and Ed Markey; Attorney General and 2010 special election nominee Martha Coakley; state Treasurer Steve Grossman; U.S. Attorney Carmen Ortiz; Newton Mayor Setti Warren; state Sen. Benjamin Downing; City Year co-founder and 2010 special election primary candidate Alan Khazei, attorney and 2012 Senate candidate Marisa DeFranco; and activist Bob Massie. Former Rep. Marty Meehan has said that he will not be a candidate. [...]

On the Republican side, soon-to-be-former U.S. Sen. Scott Brown leads the list of potential nominees. Brown famously won the 2010 special election to replace Sen. Kennedy, but lost the general election is November to Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren, 46 percent to 53 percent. Other names mentioned include: Charles Baker, the former CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care and 2010 gubernatorial nominee; former state Sen. Richard Tisei, the party's nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2010 and in the 6th congressional district in 2012; former Gov. and 1996 Senate nominee Bill Weld; and state Rep. Daniel Winslow.

Then there's also the matter of the temporary appointment. Gov. Deval Patrick previously said he expects to tap a placeholder who won't run in the special election, saying "it's hard for me to imagine how you could serve in the Senate for a four-month period and also run a statewide campaign in a four-month period and do both of them well." One possibility: retiring Rep. Barney Frank, who says he wouldn't rule out a brief stint as senator if Patrick were to tap him. But we'll undoubtedly be hearing plenty more speculation on this front in the coming weeks.

12:42 PM PT: RI-Gov: Strike another name off the list for the GOP: Businessman Barry Hinckley, who got pounded by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse last month, says he has no interest in running for governor in 2014.

12:48 PM PT: AR-Gov: That was quick: A day after a report came out suggesting that Democrats might try to recruit outgoing Rep. Mike Ross to run for governor despite his repeated statements that he won't, Ross is saying... that he won't. Some unnamed Dems apparently hoped to get Ross back in the game after frontrunner Dustin McDaniel revealed he'd had an affair. But McDaniel, the state AG, is staying put, and so is Ross.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 06:00:14 AM PST

  •  I haven't been on DKE (13+ / 0-)

    as much as I would have liked to this past few weeks as I finish up this semester, but I've read a lot of people worrying about Kerry's imminent appointment to State because of Downtown Scott Brown's perceived strength. I totally understand it, and if Brown makes the race, it will undoubtedly be close. But, in this case, I think we're putting politics ahead of country. (I'm sorry if this has been discussed ad naseum, but I wanted to add my two cents)

    We need the best and the brightest running our State Department, and, at least to me, Senator Kerry is very qualified for the job. It's obvious that he has a great grasp on foreign affairs and would do an immaculate job at Sec of State. Yes, the Iraq War vote was inexcusable, and perhaps the better Rice would have been a better choice. Regardless, if President Obama feels Kerry is the best for the job, then he should let the voters of MA decide who is best for their state.

    And for that matter, Scott Brown already lost in November. Yes, Warren was a spectacular candidate and there were real pres headwinds, but, no matter what, Scott Brown is a loser. He was the only incumbent to lose in the general last cycle. What's more, my gut says he doesn't even run, since he'll have to run in two tough elections: this special election to fulfill Kerry's term and then another in 2014 for another term. Furthermore, he'll face stiff competition in both--you really think we'll be stuck with another Coakley?

    Therefore, Obama should appoint the most qualified person to State; if he feels that it should be Kerry, then so be it. In the grand scheme of things, it's far more important for America to have a competent Sec of State than one more D senator, especially if the partisan makeup of the Senate is not on the line--look how badly Powell and Rice screwed up.

    NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

    by nycyoungin on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 06:18:23 AM PST

    •  Warren ran a half-ass campaign against Brown (0+ / 0-)

      ...but she defeated him anyways!

      Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 06:21:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's been alleged by some detractors (4+ / 0-)

      that Kerry is likely to be a poor manager of the vast bureaucracy the Secretary of State presides over:

      Kerry may do a passable job "casting votes and opining on the Sunday talk shows," says Michael Rubin at Commentary. But running an agency the size of the State Department is sure to prove beyond him. The man is "serially indecisive" — just ask his former staffers. "Simple decisions regarding which of two candidates should receive a promotion on his staff could take six months." He's notorious for mulling over decisions "long after others on both sides of the aisle had made up their minds." His instincts are bad — he once referred to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as "my dear friend," and his public posture on Syria has been an embarrassment. "It is doubtful that anyone will tell the Massachusetts senator that the emperor has no clothes. That is too bad, because the damage an indecisive and arrogant executive can do to the policy and practice of U.S. foreign policy is immense."
      If this is a salient criticism, it is not at all obvious that Senator Kerry is the indispensable Secretary of State, quite apart from the risks of opening up that seat to another special election, which I think sucks.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:15:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Eh. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm not sure that's exactly a fair and comprehensive look.  You can find former staffers to say anything, I suspect.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:29:08 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Jesus (5+ / 0-)

        You know Commentary is a right-wing magazine, right?

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:11:50 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hillary had all of those negatives and more (4+ / 0-)

        when she got the SoS position. Her presidential campaign was plagued by her inability to manage her campaign because she couldn't make personnel decisions or control her staff. That same problem plagued her as first lady and as Senator, etc.  But, many think she did an excellent job as SoS.  The SoS doesn't set policy and doesn't actually manage State. Obama sets policies and career diplomats manage day-to-day State operations.  

        Kerry wouldn't be my first choice as SoS, but I think he'll be good at it. I do like that he speaks another language as our top diplomat should be able to converse world leaders in more than 1 language.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:13:33 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  For another perspective (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

        here's Fred Kaplan:

        During his first term, Obama called on him several times as a special emissary for difficult missions. Kerry persuaded Afghan President Hamid Karzai to hold a second-round run-off election, thus averting a major crisis in that country. Around the same time, he negotiated with Pakistan’s leaders on the release of an imprisoned American. Both efforts required bouts of shuttle diplomacy and, at each stop, a degree of patience that impressed even veteran diplomats. (Kerry described his dealings with Karzai as drinking “300 cups of tea.”)

        [...]

        During Bill Clinton’s presidency, he devoted endless hours to restoring relations with Vietnam, making more than a dozen trips to his old battleground, and doing so in alliance with Republican Sen. John McCain, a fellow veteran of that war but one with a very different outlook. (Kerry headed a major anti-war organization after leaving the Army; McCain spent five years in a North Vietnamese prison. It was Kerry who reached out to McCain; the two are still good friends.) He also helped set up a tribunal on genocide in Cambodia and led the effort to assist the new democratic regime in the Philippines after the ouster of Marcos.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:20:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  If true (big if) (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        that can be addressed by a good deputy SoS.

        I hope; therefore, I can live.

        by tietack on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 01:18:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Unfortunately (12+ / 0-)

      We had this discussion once before, back in 2008. Unfortunately, adherents to your view were proved wrong. It got us Jan Brewer.

      What's more, there is no "most qualified person." There's no one, singular, absolute best person in the world for any given job. That's ridiculous. Hell, we know for a fact that Obama doesn't view Kerry as the best because Susan Rice was clearly the favorite until she withdrew (or was forced to withdraw).

      So at most you can say Kerry is second-best. Does that mean there is an empirically third best? 11th best? 992,452nd best? No. You can't evaluate human talent that way. Even in areas of achievement where you have empirical metrics for measuring people, like sports, analysts still argue over who the best baseball player of all time is.

      So anyone who insists that so-and-so is the best person for the job... well, that's just like, their opinion, man—even if the person expressing that opinion is the president. And there's no way I am willing to say that Barack Obama has some magical ability to divine the who the absolute best person in all the land is for running cabinet agencies. That's absurd, and it's also hubris.

      The way a decision should be made is that a group of potentially talented individuals should be considered and vetted, with all pluses and minuses taken into account. And Kerry brings with him an enormous minus—the fact that his appointment would lead to a special election.

      You can't just be "consequences be damned" when selecting cabinet officials. Who is Secretary of State is not more important than who controls the Senate. Just no way, no how. And to privilege the position of SoS above the Senate is to say you care more about who you get to name as a bureaucrat than all the people in the country who will benefit from a Democratic Senate.

      Hell, what if the chamber were divided 50-50 right now, with Biden breaking ties? Would you still support the Kerry pick?

      No, it's not putting "politics" ahead of "country" to oppose the Kerry choice. Who controls the Senate matters a fuckton for this country.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:08:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Is control of the Senate at stake, though? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nycyoungin

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:36:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Did we stop having elections? :) (5+ / 0-)

          Obviously I don't need to outline the scenario where a Brown win in 2013 and 2014 hands control of the Senate to the GOP 51-49 because we do poorly in 2014.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:49:42 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Sure, but by that logic (5+ / 0-)

            anytime a Senator is appointed to anything is risking control of the Senate.  Or, in fact, anything that might make it somewhat more likely for a Republican to win a seat is risking control of the Senate.  Sure--but we should also keep some sense of the magnitude and probability of the effect in mind.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:51:37 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's exactly my logic (4+ / 0-)

              And indeed, it's the logic of almost every president for the last century. We linked an item the other day which showed just how rare appointments of sitting senators are. In fact, between FDR and Obama, it had only happened twice ever, once under Carter and once under Clinton. And Clinton's pick, Bentsen, led to the GOP picking up the seat.

              I'm pretty much always happy to privilege control of the Senate (and House and White House) over just about every other consideration. It's not absolute, but it's always my top priority.

              Political Director, Daily Kos

              by David Nir on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:08:23 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Really? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                What about Harold Burton, under Truman:

                Justice Owen J. Roberts retired later that year, and Truman decided to appoint a Republican to replace him as a bipartisan gesture. He selected Burton as someone whom he knew and respected. (See, Harry S. Truman Supreme Court candidates.) His nomination was announced to the Senate and confirmed unanimously on the same day, without hearing or debate. Burton resigned from the Senate on September 30, 1945, when President Truman nominated him, and took his seat on the Court the next day. Burton was the last serving member of Congress appointed to the Court, although former Senator Sherman Minton was appointed in 1949.

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                by Xenocrypt on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:22:52 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  I do agree that all pluses and minuses (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        should be considered, and that there's probably no one "best" candidate.  But I also don't know if I'm ready to say that no Senator should ever be appointed to anything.  

        And I also think that it's not just about talent, which is very difficult to evaluate, as you say.  It's also about connections within the foreign policy bureaucracy, connections within the international community, experience, positions on various issues important to Obama (what Obama thinks those issues are, and what his positions are vs. Kerry's positions vs. those of other potential Secretaries--I have no idea--foreign policy isn't really my area), and so on.  

        I don't know where Kerry ranks on those things, which is why I can't really evaluate this.  But I imagine that's all factored into the decision.    

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:01:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  It does raise the risk of losing the Senate in '14 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        very modestly, IMO -- as I think the realistic max gain for Rs in '14 is 6 seats (SD, WV, LA, AK, AR, NC).

        Even in a modest wave against us, I think the worst we'd lose is 5 of these 6.

        I hope; therefore, I can live.

        by tietack on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 01:22:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Gotta disagree 100% with David here (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NMLib, askew, MichaelNY, MBishop1, nycyoungin

        Obama is elected to govern, not run a permanent campaign.  And he doesn't want to run, and refuses to run, a permanent campaign.  He is not unusual that way, he's the norm as Presidents go.

        He wants John Kerry as his top choice.  It doesn't matter that there are other qualified people, that is always true of every job but sometimes you find someone you just decide is your number one for whatever combination of reasons.  And Kerry is who Obama wants.

        So he should pick him, that's responsible governing.

        Passing on Kerry to keep "safe" a U.S. Senate seat in dark blue Massachusetts is not responsible.

        And this business of projecting ahead to the outcome of 2014 Senate races is folly, that would be blatantly reckless for Obama to think like that.  It's not what he was elected to do.

        We're all election junkies here, and I think it's easy to get caught up in politics as sport, as we all see it that way to a significant extent even as we appreciate the gravity of governing and legislating.  But I think it's important not to fall into the tunnel vision of thinking we need to win primarily to beget more winning.  That's true when I follow Cyclones football and basketball, winning itself is the endgame, there is no higher purpose.  But Obama didn't win just to win, he won so he could make people like John Kerry the top diplomat.

        All this is aside from my view that we're not going to have the trouble holding this seat that I think some expect.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 08:58:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think DCCyclone (0+ / 0-)

        addresses much of the response that I was going to make. It's not who I think is the best person for the job, but, instead, it's Obama's. I'm not the President; it doesn't matter who I think should be appointed--don't put words in my mouth because I never definitively said he is the most qualified. I'm not in the position to make that call. I'm in a position to critically examine possible candidates as a voting citizen, and what I see is that John Kerry is qualified to be SoS.

        Also, if Obama felt that Napolitano was the best to run Homeland Security, then he should have appointed her. There's a reason why we have a president: we elect them to put the best people in charge of our government. Would you have preferred reinstating Michael Chertoff? It obviously sucks that Jan Brewer was promoted to governor, but she was elected in Arizona against a credible candidate--so, yeah, the partisan in me hates Jan Brewer and all the racist laws she stands for, but do you really think it was a slam dunk for a D to win election in Arizona in 2010 anyway? Hardly. Impossible to say, I know, but even a lowlife like Brewer got elected in that wave.

        And, David, I assume you helped reelect Obama like I did, so you obviously value his ability to make decisions--at least somewhat. Calling an appointment of a qualified individual to his cabinet "hubris" is just nonsense. I wholly agree that Kerry is PROBABLY not the best person in America to be SoS, but Obama is making, in his eyes, the best decision there is.

        Also, are you serious that SoS is a government bureaucrat? SoS has a ton of influence on the president, advising him on every foreign policy decision he makes. It's not like SoS pushes papers at the best of the president--the SoS can literally control how America is viewed in the word, which is essential for world cooperation. You really think our neighbors East of the Atlantic would rather play ball with Condeleeza Rice than a respected public servant like Hillary Clinton?

        So, yeah, if Obama doesn't appoint who he thinks is best for the job because of a (perceived) difficult election, then that's, by definition, putting politics over country. I don't care if that's generally a right wing talking point: that's exactly what it is. Regardless, this is all moot because Kerry is going to be appointed and Scott Brown will not win reelection to the Senate. In fact, I'm willing to bet you a babka, David, that the Democrats will keep this seat. I agree with DCCyclone, the race will not be nearly as difficult as people think it will be.

        NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

        by nycyoungin on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 06:05:56 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Your argument mostly makes sense (0+ / 0-)

          But I refuse to tip it because of stuff like this, which is irrelevant and strikes me as insulting:

          Would you have preferred reinstating Michael Chertoff?
          You really think our neighbors East of the Atlantic would rather play ball with Condeleeza Rice than a respected public servant like Hillary Clinton?
          While I was reading, I formed a one-word reaction to this in my mind: Bullshit. The choice was never between Napolitano and Chertoff or Clinton and Rice, but between the people Obama did pick and an indefinite number of other possible picks. You are clearly no dope, so you know that, yet chose to post these straw people ("straw men" sounds a little strange when talking about Rice and Clinton).

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 02:36:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  You're right (0+ / 0-)

            the Chertoff comment was out of line, and irrelevant. It was never a choice between the two. I was just a little heated when responding to David.

            But the Clinton vs. Rice comment still stands; I think you just misread it. All I was saying is that Clinton is a more respected figure worldwide and far more competent. That's all.

            NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

            by nycyoungin on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 03:32:55 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Was anyone suggesting otherwise? (0+ / 0-)

              If not, that's a classic straw man, right?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 03:43:37 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I'm trying to make the case (0+ / 0-)

                that competence is extremely important in a SoS. I don't think many here at DK would say that Rice was competent, so I'm trying to make the case that we need a competent SoS for America's image abroad.

                NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

                by nycyoungin on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 08:51:47 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  And you think that by saying Sos is a bureaucrat (0+ / 0-)

                  Dave meant competence was unimportant? I actually doubt any regular on this board thinks it's unimportant to have competent cabinet secretaries.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 09:14:27 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I don't actually believe that he feels that way (0+ / 0-)

                    but it made it seem like he did with that message. When I read "bureaucrat" I think of basically a paper pusher who acts at behest of a higher power. I think we should drop it at this point, though. I always respect your opinions but I think we're getting too far into semantics.

                    NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

                    by nycyoungin on Tue Dec 25, 2012 at 03:59:25 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

      •  I should also say (0+ / 0-)

        that I doubt Scott Brown will make this race--if he does, and loses, he's toast forever. I think he'll run for governor in 2014 which a greater chance of winning and not have to run again two years later.

        NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

        by nycyoungin on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 06:08:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Toast forever (0+ / 0-)

          So who's your pick for Kentucky Derby, since you're so sure the poll that shows Brown defeating everyone to be nonsense? I guess I should ask DCCyclone the same question, but I've knocked him enough for his annoying certitude about something we can merely make predictions about and can't know for sure in advance.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 02:38:37 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  What is thy bidding, my master? (10+ / 0-)

    EMPEROR: There is a great disturbance in the Force.

    LORD MIKE: I have felt it.

    EMPEROR: The GOP has a new enemy -- Steve LaTourette (OH-14).  His criticism of his party is unrelenting.

    VADER: Yes, my master.

    EMPEROR: He could destroy them.

    VADER: He's retired. He can no longer hurt them.

    EMPEROR: The Force is strong with him. The representative of OH-14 must not become a pundit.

    VADER: If he could be turned, he would become a powerful ally to the Democratic Party.

    EMPEROR: Yes. Yes. He would be a great asset if he would run again as a Democrat in OH-14. Can it be done?

    VADER: He will join us or retire, my master.

    Lord Mike kneels. The supreme Emperor passes a hand over the crouched Lord of the Sith and fades away.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 07:01:22 AM PST

  •  Obama apparently to nominate Kerry today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sylv, TrueBlueDem, MichaelNY

    Breaking News Sources: Obama to nominate Kerry as Secretary of State today

    http://www.usatoday.com/...

    Democratic strength in the senate be damned.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 07:34:26 AM PST

  •  well, I'm ready to help beat Scott Brown again (7+ / 0-)

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 07:39:14 AM PST

  •  Looks like it's just the Kerry nomination today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, askew, bfen

    Nothing about Defense Secretary or any other position.

    Personally, I think it would be great if they selected Flournoy for Defense. Very well qualified, and obviously a an historic choice. I think Hagel might end up at CIA after some of the criticism, since it's less of a policy position.

    Also, I would think there wont be any more nominations announced until Jan.

  •  AR-Gov: NRA (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, ArkDem14

    Asa Hutchinson just appeared at the NRA press statement (not a press conference since they refused to take questions), where Wayne LaPierre called for more guns in schools. Hard to believe how that would help him in a potential run for Governor, even in Arkansas.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 08:29:55 AM PST

  •  this is a wonderful chronicle (6+ / 0-)

    of the 12/21/2012 apocalypse.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 08:38:09 AM PST

  •  I realize it's likely to be mostly Kerry (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Zack from the SFV

    most of the time, but discussing and following House races is core mission stuff for DKE. In case some of you would miss it, I posted this comment and link late last night.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:23:47 AM PST

    •  I saw that and it is one of the reasons I was (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, JBraden

      not thrilled with Israel staying on as head of DCCC. He was too conservative in 2012 and he looks like he is being too conservative for 2014 as well.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:18:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  What does "too conservative" mean here? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:19:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'd assume he meant too cautious by it (5+ / 0-)

          which I'd certainly have to agree with.  We had a handful of seats like NY-23 or NE-02 or even IN-02 where we came within a few points without any DCCC or HMP support and we had shitty recruitment in tons of conservadem seats like AR-01, 02, 04, WV-01 and even in a few others like OH-07 that if not winnable certainly could have been a hell of a lot closer.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

          by sawolf on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:27:07 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't see how weak recruitment (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, wwmiv, jncca, DCCyclone

            Means "too cautious." And I really don't think our recruitment was bad. I thought we did a decent job, given the impediments we faced.

            Put another way: We have no idea what Israel's efforts were. Why would someone else have done better on recruitment? Was Israel lazy? I certainly don't see anyone making that claim, or having evidence for it. Did Israel turn off candidates he tried to recruit? Again, that would be a hell of a claim to make.

            So if you do think recruitment was bad, it's a little too easy to say, "Dude was in charge of recruitment. Recruitment was bad. Ergo dude did a bad job." Without evidence that Israel actually fucked up recruitment in some way, that's a post hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy.

            As for caution, I guess I just feel like this is going to be a never-ending and insoluble debate. But it's just too easy to point fingers after election day.

            Were analysts hollering for the D-Trip to spend more in IN-02 or NE-02 before the election? Or NY-23? Now that would be more interesting.

            Political Director, Daily Kos

            by David Nir on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:40:07 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I should have separated those two points (4+ / 0-)

              I think they were too cautious about investing in particular seats like NE-02, which is what I think the original poster was getting at.

              Recruitment is a different aspect of what the DCCC does though and we obviously don't know the behind the scenes manouevering they did to land top tier recruits.  Cautious doesn't really apply here and I'm just assuming that we could have done a lot better in a handful of seats with some arm twisting/pork promises.

              Just because armchair pundits like us weren't screaming at the DCCC to invest in any of those races doesn't mean they shouldn't have had better information about which seats were competitive; it's like saying "OfA should be as tech savy as possible" (which they were) when we can analyze their strategy in hindsight (which we got a sneak peek at).  So the question is really: why didn't the DCCC have better information on races like NE-02 or if it did have enough information, why didn't they act?

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

              by sawolf on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:49:12 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  See, that's what I don't get (4+ / 0-)

                Why would you "assume" "that we could have done a lot better in a handful of seats with some arm twisting/pork promises"? For all we know, every arm was twisted out of its socket, and every promise was made, and this was still what we got. I just don't understand what the basis for that assumption is. In fact, my assumption is that indeed Israel pushed as hard as he could. He doesn't strike me as a slacker.

                As for NE-02 or NY-23, I can offer various thoughts in response. One is that sometimes campaign committees make mistakes. After all, these people are only human. Another possibility is that these races broke super-late and there just weren't resources left to help. And another is that polling showed some kind of insurmountable obstacle, the way Mark Mellman said every final poll he did showed Berkley down 1-2 points. In that case, could you say "a little more help and Berkley would have won"? I don't know. I think Mellman would have said no, it wouldn't have mattered.

                Political Director, Daily Kos

                by David Nir on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:35:05 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I think there are missed opportunities every cycle (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Hard to keep track of every trend in 100+ "potentially" competitive districts.

                  I hope; therefore, I can live.

                  by tietack on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 01:27:30 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Okay, well I'll just give you an example (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  of some of the districts where I think recruitment would have made the difference of a few race ratings categories if not flipped the outcome:
                  AR-01: The seat is 4 points to the left of the state, Crawford was a relatively weak incumbent going off of the 2010 race.  Someone like 2010 nominee Chad Causey would have been significantly better
                  AR-02: district is 3-4% to left of the state, but Griffin is much stronger, yet it's also a more liberal district to boot.  No way we win this in 2012, but we could have at least fielded a serious candidate who could have gotten over 45%
                  AR-04: Mike Ross fucking retired!  And instead of getting someone like state sen Larry Teague or a serious candidate from the legislature, we got Jeffres who ran a 19th century campaign and got crushed
                  WV-01: Instead of running Tim Manchin or senate president Jeff Kessler we ran a liberal activist Sue Thorn.  Not saying we could have won this like I thought earlier in the cycle, but either of those names or pretty much any of our many state legislators from the district would have done better.
                  CA-21: Holy shit this one blows me away still.  This is a Democratic seat.  Dems perform consistent with or above Obama % in generic elections in presidential years here, yet we ran a 3rd tier candidate.  Michael Rubio, Dean Florez, or Jim Costa would have won solidly.  Hell I think even Blong Xiong or whatever his name was would have won if he could raise over 600 or 700k.

                  These were all races where we should have known to field a much more competitive candidate given their recent history, yet we didn't.  Again, we've both acknowledged there's a lot going on we don't know and if I somehow found out new information that the DCCC had indicating certain races like WV-01 were unwinnable under any circumstances then I'd of course change my position, but with the facts available I certainly think there is a non-trivial number of seats where we could have recruited a candidate who was significantly better enough to make the race a few categories more competitive.

                  NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

                  by sawolf on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 01:44:39 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

        •  Too cautious would have been better word choice. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I meant that he missed opportunities in 2012 because he was overly cautious and it looks like he is doing the same again. Candidate recruitment wasn't great in 2012 either. He's no Rahm at DCCC, which is too bad IMO.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:11:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  You may well be right (0+ / 0-)

        And I was certainly deeply disappointed with the House results this year. But is your objection that he is not stating outright that he plans on flipping the House in 2014, that he isn't already stating that he's targeting more districts, or both?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 01:19:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Reposting from yesterday regarding KY-Sen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, SaoMagnifico, KingTag

    Imagine this scenario:
    Democrats dominate Maryland at the federal level thanks to its large minority and population.  This is true in reality of course and let's pretend it's the same here.

    The difference though, is that Republicans are able to consistently win at the statewide executive (gov, ag, etc) level thanks to running very moderate nominees who, differently from the federal party, push policies that benefit blacks in particular and/or are black themselves.  This allows them to rout the Democrats in federally dark blue Prince George's County and Baltimore even though their federal candidates get destroyed.

    Finally, Barbara Mikulski is detested by the electorate because, well, some hill staffers think she's a big meanie!  Thus, she's vulnerable and in response to Gallup showing atrocious numbers for her, her front pager campaign manager calls them a "rethug" polling outfit then proceeds to produce identical numbers to the laughter of Fox News.  However, instead of running a legit version of Michael Steele when they have several comparable statewide office holders, Maryland Republicans nominate a candidate who is a celebrity among elements of their national party base thanks to his outspoken conservative views, but is considered not moderate enough for Maryland.  The candidate they end up with? Ted Nugent. (I almost went with David Duke* but Nugent was just perfect).

    Now at this point you might have guessed that instead of black voters (this is Kentucky after all) I'm referring to coal.  Just take a look at any of the 2007 or 2011 statewide races.  Even when the Democrats get destroyed as we did for Agriculture Commissioner or romp like Beshear did, the best region of the state at the county level is pretty much always the two large coal areas.  Then look at the federal level and you see Obama does quite well in the urban and particularly suburban parts of the state, but then his worst region is coal territory.

    So, Democrats running Ashley Judd in Kentucky (or Barack Obama for that matter) is like Republicans passing over Michael Steele for Ted Nugent or David Duke in Maryland.  Yes I know that Steele didn't carry blacks or even come remotely close, but you get the idea.

    In short, this is all to say that I really don't see how Judd won't hurt downticket even if it's just a few points off the margin, given how opposed she is to the interest group politics of a key Democratic constituency in the state.  That's why she's only above a some dude, but below "unopposed" in my book.

    *Getting back to David Duke, his gubernatorial race vs. Edwin Edwards is almost what I'm thinking of when [DCCycolne] alluded to McConnell getting teabagged and us botching the opportunity with Judd: both candidates were inferior in the eyes of the electorate to any generic D or R, but since one of those inferior two nominees was more out of sync with the state than the other, he (Duke) lost.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:14:50 AM PST

    •  Nugent, etc (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      On last night's thread I said that Trace Adkins would be a better comp than Nugent, but I thought about it some more and now I say Dennis Miller is the GOP equivalent of Judd. He'd still get clobbered by Mikulski or another unpopular blue state Dem (say Menendez) so I think your basic point holds. I don't think Nugent isn't the best comp because he has a record of saying things that are way, way, way over the top. I'm not sure he even has a Dem equivalent, a celebrity who has a history of saying really outrageous things but who party leaders still want to be seen with.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:38:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I picked Nugent for celebrity (0+ / 0-)

        I was really thinking of David Duke since that actually happened, or maybe Oliver North 1994 (though that's a 3 way race).  But yeah, anyone like Dennis Miller or Glenn Beck would work too.  Just anyone whose blatantly the opposite of Michael Steele and a national figure.

        Certainly though, Nugent, Limbaugh, etc have no left-wing equivalent.  People like Bono always seem chose liberal causes that are pretty unassailable from the right (AIDS, poverty, etc.) and there's nobody like Michael Moore whom Democrats are still falling over themselves to get endorsed by and appear with.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:45:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Note that there's a difference... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, sapelcovits

        ...between taking a political position that is outside the political mainstream (i.e., opposing mountaintop removal mining), and saying over-the-top things (i.e., Ted Nugent's vile remarks about Obama at the 2012 NRA convention). Any celebrity who is a right-leaning libertarian (or is otherwise politically conservative but takes some positions outside the mainstream) would be what I would consider to be the Ashley Judd of the Right.

        Jesse Ventura is another example of a celebrity that I would consider to be someone outside the political mainstream, however, I wouldn't consider Ventura to be either liberal or conservative. By the way, Ventura actually won the 1998 MN-Gov election as a third-party candidate!

        Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:03:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, I have the feeling McConnell is trying to (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, SaoMagnifico, KingTag, MichaelNY

      pick her like Reid picked Angle with that release yesterday.

      I like the idea of a charismatic (and good looking) political outsider with potentially very underrated policy wonk chops and the ability to nationalize the race to overcome McConnell's warchest running - but her environmental beliefs and her hardcore support of Pres Obama will not serve her well in Ky Sen race.  

      The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:50:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL-2 SPECIAL (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:20:52 AM PST

    •  Not exactly a shocker in IL-02. (5+ / 0-)

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:56:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Toi Hutchinson talked about working with the NRA (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...on her congressional campaign's Facebook page:

        We have to stop tragedies like Newtown, and that means we need an all-of-the-above strategy. We can't afford partial solutions because we can't lose so many innocent lives again. In my time in the State Senate, I’ve worked with the NRA, law enforcement and gun control advocates. If we have any hope of finding a solution, we need to elect someone who can bring all sides to the table to pass reasonable gun control along with programs that catch and treat mentally ill individuals before they become dangerous. In Congress, I’ll stand with President Obama to pass an assault weapons ban, outlaw high capacity ammunition clips, close the gun show loophole and other reasonable steps to curb gun violence. But just passing stricter rules on guns isn't enough--we need a comprehensive approach that also includes anti-violence initiatives like gang intervention and afterschool programs and mental health treatment.
        After all, Toi's voted with the NRA 92% of the time as an Illinois State Senator...keep in mind that this isn't IL-13, where being a Democrat who's worked with the NRA in the past (or otherwise has a moderate reputation) might come in handy against a Republican opponent, this is a multi-way Democratic primary in IL-2 that is, barring another cash-in-the-freezer scenario, tantamount to election.

        Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 02:08:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I got a score of 33. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus, Zack from the SFV

    Pretty good.  Not fantastic, but good.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:31:14 AM PST

  •  more on the sorry state of the Oregon Rep Party (5+ / 0-)

    the people who are putting themselves up for being chair of the party, since Allen Alley is leaving, are Crazy Art Robinson, who has been defeated by Peter DeFazio in the last two elections, a guy who I think is still in his 20s who has lost two local races in the primaries (one for state house, the other for county commission), a Portland State University student and veteran, and a woman who has lost two races for the state legislature.

    I'm not sure who would be the worst, but probably Robinson.  In any case, I don't see any good options for them there.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:43:43 AM PST

    •  Wow (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      That's a big step down from Chairman Alley, one of the last Oregon Republican Party figures for whom I have some residual respect.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:57:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  More good news for Kitzhaber (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      and Merkley in 2014. Of course, I'm not sure Kitzhaber running yet again is a good thing, particularly now that he's put together the state's exchange plan, which was his main interest and goal as a former doctor.

      Who would succeed him? Bonamicci or Avakian would be good candidates. But I really like Peter Courtney as a potential Governor who could get a lot accomplished with the state legislature. Lee Beyer also appears to have a very long and well-connected profile, from a cursory glance, and he represents the less Democratic section of Lane County.

      As far as city-level executives, is Salem mayor Anna Peterson a Democrat? Others that stick out are: Pete Sorenson, who has had ambitions to run for Governor in the past. I don't know about Clackamas, Marion, of Washington County Commissioners, or any other local mayors of major cities like Beaverton, and if any such folks have statewide ambitions.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:11:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nothing against Courtney, cause I like him a lot, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and he gives my dad a hard time for being a Yankee fan, which is a plus with me, but he's getting up there in years and doesn't look like he's in great shape anymore.

        I have no idea if Bonamici wants to be governor, and I don't think Avakian has a significant enough profile for it.  I think Kurt Schrader is also a possibility.

        However, the two people everyone expects to run are SOS Kate Brown and State Treasurer Ted Wheeler.  Either are strong candidates.

        For local officials, I think Denny Doyle, the mayor of Beaverton, is a Dem, and I'm not sure about Salem but I think she's a Republican, because I know the candidate we were working for lost.  The mayor of Gresham, Shane Bemis, is one of the most prominent Republicans in the state.  I think only one Washington County commissioner is a Democrat, unfortunately.  Only a couple Clackamas County Commissioners are Dems, including Martha Schrader.  Pete Sorenson is too far to the left to be elected statewide, I think.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:24:41 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Gresham has a Republican mayor? (0+ / 0-)

          That's surprising. It's also surprising that Washington County still has such a monolithic local Republican party. Larry George and Bruce Starr should both be top Democratic targets next time around.

          Is Peter Courtney a family friend?

          I think Kurt Schrader running is a really bad idea. Because it opens up a marginal seat that he can essentially hold down with little difficulty, but where Democrats don't currently have the strongest of benches.

          How did Democrats not when the Salem Mayoralty? That's the one reliably Democratic leaning area of Marion county aside from Woodbury.

          Kate Brown seems to be pretty disliked by the wannabe mavericks of the Oregon Press who are eager to have Democratic targets to bash in the name of "fair treatment", so would she really be that strong a candidate? Wheeler seems more likely, though it's too bad John Kroger had health and other issues and decided to leave politics, as he would have made a great consensus gubernatorial candidate.

          Do you have any opinion of Beyer?

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:37:50 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think Beyer had to be roped into running again (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            he'd retired for a while, and his wife retired from the state house.  I think the only reason he ran is because our bench in Springfield is so small.  He and his wife are not spring chickens, our previous state senator there was elderly, and our freshman state rep in Springfield, I believe, is in his 60s or 70s.

            Courtney is not a family friend but as a labor leader my father has relationships with the Dem leadership in the lege.

            Gresham is only slightly Dem leaning, less so than Salem, and Bemis seems to be a fairly credible guy.  Salem we probably only lost because it was up in 2010.

            Part of the reason Republicans have a firm hold on the county commission in Washington County is because of how districts are drawn.  Beaverton's district is dark blue, the others are not.  Starr probably will be a top target.

            Our bench in OR-05 is not that bad.  I can't think of anyone who'd be as good as Schrader at holding it, but when it opens up, we'll have several good options.  The Republican bench is worse at the legislative level than ours, though they have more county and municipal people.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:50:04 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Democrats really need to focus (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              on getting some younger blood involved in the Springfield politics then; it's ridiculous they can't find talented folks not in their 60s and 70s to run for office their.

              Is Larry George's district the most Republican in Washington County or something? I've taken quite an interest in Oregon's state politics thanks to you.

              What is your opinion? Should Kitzhaber run again? I'd rather him retire, but that might be too unfair or arbitrary of an opinion.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:59:42 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think Kitzhaber (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico, ArkDem14

                is several times the governor now that he once was, and I don't agree with him a not insignificant portion of the time.  He'd be a shoe-in, and would manage the state well.  Can't say I'd rather have him than a Governor Brown, but I have no problem with him sticking around, either.

                There are four major cities in George's district, Sherwood, Wilsonville, Newberg, and Keizer.  Only Sherwood is in Washington County. Wilsonville is in CLackamas, Newberg is in Yamhill, and Keizer is in Marion.  The northern end, HD26, with Sherwood and Wilsonville, is only about R+2, Obama won it twice, and we could swing it if we got a good candidate.  The southern end, Newberg to Keizer, to much more conservative, probably like R+7, IIRC.  Newberg is probably the most conservative city of its size in the Willamette Valley, and Keizer may be the most conservative city of its size in the state.  Newberg is at least the most conservative part of Yamhill County.

                I know this district pretty well, partially since it's near where I grew up, partially since in a mock election simulation for a few weeks I was George's field director.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 01:30:50 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Brian Clem... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              Would be good in OR-05, I think.

              Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

              by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:10:47 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  and now Brent Barton (0+ / 0-)

                his original state house district put him in Blumenauer's district.  Now that he's moved to HD-40, he's in the heart of the Clackamas County suburbs in OR-05.  He's got a moderate record.  He's better on issues for trial lawyers (being one himself), which the Schraders are poor on, and he's got a more moderate environmental record than Schrader.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 01:24:37 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  I think Secy. Kate Brown... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        Is probably the heir apparent at this point.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:09:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  If the race against Buehler were closer (0+ / 0-)

          I think Ted Wheeler would have become the heir apparent.

          As it was, I'm not impressed with Brown's '12 campaign -- it was basically a "Did you hear that my opponent is a crazy Republican" campaign.

          But it looks like it would be enough, if Brown beats Wheeler (or whomever else) in the '14 or '18 primary.

          I hope; therefore, I can live.

          by tietack on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 02:39:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think she beat him pretty soundly (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack

            I think she'd beat Treasurer Wheeler and go on to beat whoever the Republicans put up if she runs in 2014. But I think Gov. Kitzhaber may run for reelection.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 02:45:56 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't think we're saying anything different (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14

              Brown got out of Kitzhaber's way in '10 --and-- made that marvelous move that ensured Avakian's re-election.

              I think she'll get the support of most of the Oregon D establishment when Kitz is ready to re-retire.

              I hope; therefore, I can live.

              by tietack on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 02:49:34 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  MA-Sen won't be up in 2016 (3+ / 0-)

    Kerry was last elected 2008, so the next time the seat is scheduled to be up is 2014.  If Brown won in 2013 and won the race for a full term in 2014, he wouldn't be up again until 2020.

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), new LA-01 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:48:58 AM PST

  •  Harper polling makes its debut (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, SaoMagnifico, jj32, MichaelNY

    Finds that Republicans love themselves some Rubio:

    Republican primary voters back Marco Rubio with 34%, followed by Chris Christie at 18%, Condi Rice at 14%, Rand Paul at 8%, Allen West at 5% and Scott Brown at 3%.
    http://politicalwire.com/...

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:50:06 AM PST

  •  I have a feeling (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BKGyptian89, MichaelNY

    like some have stated here before, that whether Lautenberg runs for re-election will depend on how the gubernatorial race in 2013 goes.  If Christie gets re-elected, I think they put pressure on Lautenberg to retire so he doesn't get re-elected at 90 and then give Christie the chance to appoint a replacement when he either dies in office or has to resign for health reasons.

    •  Gov. Christie is going to be reelected (4+ / 0-)

      I really hope Sen. Lautenberg retires. He's great on the issues and I know he loves being in the Senate, but there's no use in him dying in office and hello Sen. Kyrillos or Sen. Guadagno when he could just be replaced by a younger Democrat.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:59:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I like Lautenberg (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      He's the last WWII veteran in the Senate and he's the youngest 88 year old I've heard of (when he had a benign stomach cancer removed last year, shortly after the procedure he was sitting up, listening to Lady Gaga, and talking the ears off the nurses).  That said, he should reclaim the retirement that Torricelli's departure pulled him out of.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:32:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Lautenberg was always pretty quirky (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        One of the few Pages I was friends with during my short stay in the program, told me about how he was riding the underground subway to one of the Senate Office buildings (I believe it was the old one, Dirksen), and how Lautenberg and his entourage came on and sat by him. Lautenberg's aides were trying to discuss some piece of legislation with him, and he was evidently tired of it, because he struck up a conversation with my page friend and wouldn't quit talking to him and totally ignoring the aides.

        To discuss health and whatnot, Inouye always looked so incredibly frail. He even looked senile at first, but then when he opened his mouth he had this booming, dark, articulate and cultured voice and spoke intelligently and you realized he was still very much in the game. Now, Akaka looked like he was in his 60s, but he wasn't particularly sharp and was a little senile. Lautenberg though, combined a youthful vigor and a sharp mind, at least he did a few years ago. I think he could probably finish out another term, but his goal seems to be, to be carried out in a casket.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:49:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  If Booker challenges him (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      I'd bet that Lautenberg runs.  Otherwise I think he'll retire.

      It's clear that his dander is up at the prospect of a Booker challenge.  And he relishes a good fight.

      Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

      by Paleo on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:27:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sen. Scott Brown's father died yesterday (7+ / 0-)

    RIP.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:02:12 AM PST

  •  Re: Evaluating Warren's campaign. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, jncca, MichaelNY

    This is apples and oranges, but I plugged her into the pretty strong equation comparing House results and Obama's 2008 performance by district.  Obama got 63.1% of the two-party vote in MA in 2008, and the equation would have Warren getting, as the challenger to a Republican incumbent, let's see...54.3% of the vote, in that case.  

    She actually got 53.5% of the two-party vote.  So basically on par.  Obama dropped by about 2 points in MA, so that was either on par with the national swing as well, or maybe an under-performance if you think about how Obama tended to hold up or even improve in places where he did very well in 2008.  (On the other hand, the actual Republican "incumbents" who lost blue districts often only had a fraction of their original district.)

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:15:16 AM PST

  •  Gov. Patrick is saying... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MAVoter, itskevin, MichaelNY

    He will appoint an interim senator who won't run in the election. So, that sucks.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:21:07 AM PST

  •  Villaraigosa (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:30:34 AM PST

  •  Corey Booker discussion: (9+ / 0-)

    I understand that this is incredibly vague and unquantified, but something rubs me wrong about Booker, before we get into any discussion of his politics. What rubs me wrong is that Booker just comes off, to me, as a shameless unceasing self-promoter, in the most disingenuous way possible. He takes it to obsessive lengths, I think, and that shows up whenever you watch an interview with him. I saw him talking with Jon Stewart the other day, and it was like Booker couldn't stop subtly bragging about himself. Now, this isn't to say the man is not smart--he comes off as very intelligent and has some good political organizational and stump skills.

    Secondly, though, is that Booker is risk-averse, and going along with the above note, he's incredibly self-serving. Watching him give an interview is watching someone use knee-jerk rhetorical formulas; by that I mean in a rather shallow manner he's constantly talking about centrist politics, and working with the other party--neither of these are bad things but he uses them as crutches to promote himself in a DLC formula. As such, he uses a lot of false or poor equivocations that often demean or undermine the Democratic party's and the left's bottom line, and his comments about Obama's Bain attacks were particularly telling and very troublesome in terms of national narrative. Those comments are exemplary of what I've been talking about.

    Booker worries me because he's an extremely ambitious politico, who has embedded himself into the party machine he initially ran against, and is risk-averse to the point where he didn't take the chance to run against the severely damaged Corzine in 2009--even if Corzine had essentially bought off state machine bosses with his promises of self-funding his own campaign. He has good ideas, and seems naturally suited for the less politicized, nuts and bolts job of an executive and/or administrator. He would make an excellent HUD or Education Secretary I think. But his political instincts are sometimes off with rhetoric, and he's not a particularly progressive Democrat with respect to many of the important economic topics under discussion these days.

    I'm wary about giving him a bigger platform to promote himself, as I think he could become a troublesome Senator and not very effective at legislating. I'd like more choices than Booker, especially if Christie wins reelection and Lautenberg steps down.

    If Lautenberg doesn't step down, the State Legislature should try to pass legislation like that in Wyoming for instance, that requires the Governor to appoint a replacement Senator of the Same party, and to choose from a list compiled by that party and given to that Governor, as happened when Craiq Thomas died in 2007. They should even be willing to play hardball in order to force this bill, such as refusing to pass other parts of Christie's agenda until he agrees to sign the appointment bill.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:30:59 AM PST

    •  Very well put. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, jj32

      His shoveling snow during Snomageddon a couple years ago was a self-promotion stunt, as is his living off of food stamps for a whopping whole week - empty gestures for self-promotion and little else.  

      The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:44:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I even feel like him (0+ / 0-)

        recklessly diving into his neighbor's burning house, taken in the broader context, a result of his narcissistic desire to promote himself and get positive attention.

        I'd also like to hear if he's really been that good a mayor. How are Newark's schools doing compared to 8 years ago, what about it's poverty levels and crime rates? How do those stack up with trends in the rest of his state and the nation? Because Booker talks a very big, nice idealistic talk, but has he actually been a good, effective mayor of Newark?

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:55:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I was going to give this (0+ / 0-)

          as an obvious counterpoint to your accusation that he is risk-averse. And if that was narcissistic, I hope we get more such behavior from him - except that it might kill him next time. He said the Fire Department guys told him not to go in, that it was too dangerous. I don't see this as narcissistic, and I find it objectionable for anyone not to give him credit for saving a life.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 01:35:33 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  He has a hero-complex (0+ / 0-)

            He's risk-averse with damaging his own career, but he'll go to almost any length to promote himself, even if it's dangerous and reckless. And if I remember the incident as well as I think I do, the fire department hadn't arrived yet; it was his personal bodyguard who told him it was too dangerous.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 02:13:05 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I allow that you might possibly be making a (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, tietack

              correct psychological analysis without having met the man, but I just am in no mood to slam someone for heroism. When people do things like this while in the military, they get decorated.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 02:46:18 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I'm fully aware that it's too speculative (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, tietack

                and not necessarily fair.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 04:38:10 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  really? (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DrPhillips, tietack, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        I don't see how you can insult anyone for trying to live off of food stamps for a week.  Have you done it?

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:04:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's a stunt. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, bfen

          And I think it's sort of insulting in a way.  What is a week really? Is he supposed to get a real feel about the situation and plight of folks in a week?  Local news anchors and low-level polls do this all the time.  It's like in high school when kids sleep outside for a night so they know what it's like to be homeless.  

          I've lived off of less than food stamps at times in my life.  It wasn't part of any "look at me" challenge.  Not claiming to be hard-off or poor - as one time it was when I was backpacking around Europe and would eat next to nothing as I had a food/stay budget and open return flight that meant as soon as I ran out of money I had to come home - so I chose not to eat in order to be able to travel around longer - I lost near 50lbs in three and a half months.  The other time I stupidly get into a living situation I couldn't afford the monthly bills so lived off of a bag of lentils bought from a bulk store for two months before my parents found out.  

          Neither of these is applicable or comparable to living off of foodstamps with no end in sight, and the stigma that comes with it.  But neither is a one week challenge.  

          The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

          by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:17:34 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  A one week challenge is better than the zero weeks (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            99% of elected officials in both parties have done.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 03:52:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's very real, period (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              It can never be like someone depending on food stamps, because Booker always knows that after a week, he's done, he goes back to his comfortable life.

              But for that week, it's genuinely tough.  That first day probably makes the next 6 feel like a year.  He'll learn a lot from it.

              To glibly dismiss it as a "stunt" is wrong on the merits.  Considering how much Booker is tied to the financial industry in his donor base, this is a good way for him to get back down to earth and try to remember forever what it was like.

              I do respect it.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:15:58 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Ted Kulongoski did it -- as a lame duck (OR-Gov) (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          He wrote about it in a way (in '07) that brought others into the experience.

          I hope; therefore, I can live.

          by tietack on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 02:45:12 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  My problem with him is much simpler (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, ArkDem14

      He shouldn't be talking about running for Lautenberg's seat when Lautenberg has given no hint of retiring.

      If he intends to primary Lautenberg, that is dumb on its face.

      Either is politically tone deaf in an eye-rolling way.

      I've commented before that I don't have a problem with the idea of Senator Booker, I think he'll vote loyally with the caucus, I would bet he defects on nothing.  That plus having a black Senator in the caucus again are good enough for me.

      But it's dumb for him to talk about it now.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:11:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Dale Bumpers did it in '74 (0+ / 0-)

        Primaried J William Fullbright, the foreign relations titan, and beat him by a 2:1 margin.

        I suspect Booker can beat Lautenberg by a similar margin, if Lautenberg chooses to run again.

        I hope; therefore, I can live.

        by tietack on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:17:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why do you assume that? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, ArkDem14

          Lautenberg is reasonably popular, his favorables are pretty good.  He has a good image with the Democratic base and also the general electorate.  He's old, that's his only knock, if that's a knock for anyone.

          Booker is a rising star but there's nothing really establishing he'd be on a level to knock off Lautenberg.

          And I don't assume even that black voters would favor Booker.  Black voters will pick a white candidate over a black candidate, even in a Democratic primary, more often than some think.  I suspect (extrapolating from polls) that Lautenberg's image is very strong with black voters and they will hesitate more than some might think to vote against him.

          I don't know the Bumpers/Fulbright history and cannot comment.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:25:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  ... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, tietack, MichaelNY

            You did see the PPP poll showing him up, right?

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:37:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I didn't see the poll myself until now.. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, MichaelNY

              Q6 Would you prefer the Democratic candidate for
              Senate in 2014 be Cory Booker or Frank
              Lautenberg?
              Cory Booker.................................................... 59%
              Frank Lautenberg ........................................... 22%
              Not sure .......................................................... 18%

              http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

              I hope; therefore, I can live.

              by tietack on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:59:53 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Me neither (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, tietack

                Somehow I missed that.

                Surprising results to me.

                Although the Booker/Lautenberg question among Ds wasn't a straight up ballot test, it was "would you prefer" the nominee to be Lautenberg or Booker.  That's different from asking people who they actually would vote for.  Proving the point, Lautenberg fared better, 36%, in people wanting him to run again, which directly contradicts the response on who people want as a the nominee.  So 36% want him to run but only 22% want him to win?...14% of Democrats want him to run and lose, instead of retire?  No, that doesn't make sense.

                I'd like to see more direct polling on this.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 06:24:57 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Not like 36% is a good number for re-elect either (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Let's take the 5 numbers

                  Approval: 43%
                  Want to run for re-election: 36%
                  Want him to win over Booker: 22%
                  Lautenberg's age: 88
                  Booker's age: 43

                  This is America, where people still discriminate against people significantly older than average (the median Senate age is currently 63) -- and celebrate youth.

                  I hope; therefore, I can live.

                  by tietack on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 09:04:47 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

          •  Personal energy makes a difference (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, ArkDem14, DCCyclone

            Sadly, I think it made the difference in the short campaign of '02 in MN-Sen between Coleman and Mondale.

            As for African Americans, they don't necessarily vote for the most left-wing candidate -- look at Jimmy Carter in '76 v. Mo Udall.

            If Lautenberg can show that he has the energy of a 70 yr old, then he has a chance.

            I wish his age and wisdom would win out in this country. I think it would win out in Hawaii. I don't see it happening in New Jersey.

            (As for Bumpers - Fullbright, there are conflicting histories. This one has a snippet of the campaign that I find accurate; but it's easy to find a different account.)

            I hope; therefore, I can live.

            by tietack on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:55:34 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sadly, Fullbright's opposition (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tietack

              to the Vietnam war hurt him.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 02:14:59 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Didn't Bumpers also oppose Vietnam? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                tietack

                I was too young to follow politics closely in the early 70s, but Bumpers was always a good liberal, from what I remember.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 02:47:24 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Not many people in Arkansas care about foreign (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, ArkDem14

                  policy -- Fullbright's expertise in the area made him seem "out of touch" relative to a popular Gov. When combined with his age, that was lethal to his electability.

                  (Yes, Bumpers was a reliable liberal -- certainly more in the Democratic mainstream than Pryor the younger is today. [Dale Bumpers served with David Pryor, Mark's father.]).

                  I hope; therefore, I can live.

                  by tietack on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 04:02:42 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  But Fullbright was very prominent (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, tietack

                  in his opposition, and Bumpers became the choice candidate for the conservative, John McClellan wing of the party, even though Bumpers was also a strong Democrat and one of Clinton's political godfathers.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 04:36:51 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  That explains the different interpretations (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    of the '74 primary, how Bumpers was the choice of the McClellan wing,

                    even though he never signed any sort of segregation manifesto -- and was arguably at least as (perhaps more?) liberal as Fullbright overall.

                    I hope; therefore, I can live.

                    by tietack on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 05:32:49 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

  •  Census 2020: The most surprising result (4+ / 0-)

    from the RCP analysis could be that Alabama is on the edge of losing a seat.  This would occur under the scenario where the most recent population changes (2011 to 2012) are weighted more heavily.

  •  I like Trende's projections a lot (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY

    For example, I imagine cutting a seat in PA, OH, WV, and MI would probably all mean eliminating Republican seats, while in IL, RI, and MN probably a Democratic seat (MN-07?).

    New seats in CO, CA, VA, NC, FL, and TX would probably mean a few more where we're competitive.  

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:34:48 AM PST

    •  Minnesota (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      When I've drawn a 7 seat map under 2010's census results Bachmann gets screwed and Kline and Paulsen become safe.  I could see something like that happening while the 1st and 8th take a slight hit and the 7th becomes so that it's unwinnable once Peterson retires, but it's unlikely the 7th is just wholesale eliminated.  At the very least none of our other 4 seats in the state will be eliminated so it'll either be Peterson or a Republican.

      North Carolina can't get any worse.  With 14 seats they'd be fools not to just vote sink McIntyre and shore everyone else up while gaining the new seat.

      Illinois if we don't flip the 13th and all the other seats hold I could see them merging the Dem base in 12 and 13 meaning we stay at 12, but the suburban seats will probably be pressured as the VRA black districts might have to expand, though that's really hard to predict 8 years out.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:52:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  IL (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, James Allen, MichaelNY

      The eliminated district would probably be downstate, and if Dems get to draw the map they will probably merge most of  the blue parts of IL12 and IL13 into something they would be favored to win.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:57:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  MN-6 is the one on the chopping block (0+ / 0-)

      I think.  Try it on DRA; hard to eliminate anything but 6.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:05:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've found it very easy to eliminate the 7th (0+ / 0-)

        I haven't even tried to eliminate the 6th.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:35:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  35 out of 40 on the prediction contest! (5+ / 0-)

    Pretty pleased with myself.

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 11:48:51 AM PST

    •  Impressive. I got killed. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      But I tried to get too cute and go for the win - I'm like that when in football pools as well.

      The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:02:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Art Pope is new budget director in N.Carolina... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Man, I'm a proponent of saying "Elections have consequences" but that's too much.  The guy bought the whole bloody state and now is in charge of the purse strings.  That would be like Walker giving a Koch Bro the same gig in Wisconsin or Romney winning the WH and putting Adelson as his Secretary of State.  

    The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:04:19 PM PST

    •  This is the sole purpose for why the party (3+ / 0-)

      exists today.  It isn't free market ideology or social conservatism.  It's all about the .1% winning elections so they can enact policies favoring them economically.  They only care about social conservatism in that it helps them with this goal.

      And that's why I'm and will forever be a yellow dog Democrat.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:27:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Diane Hendricks is the WI GOP super-donor (0+ / 0-)

      She's best known for two things:

      A) Giving $510,000 to Walker during the recalls
      B) This clip from the documentary As Goes Janesville:

      I could see Walker appointing Hendricks to a U.S. Senate seat should either Baldwin's or Johnson's seat became vacant sometime in the next two years, which is why I'm hoping that doesn't happen.

      Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:32:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  LOL (4+ / 0-)

      Did you see what I wrote in the Digest? If you didn't, that's pretty funny, because you basically used the exact same language!

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:52:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The next 4 years is gonna be longest in NC (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      redrelic17, MichaelNY

      thats what happens now that this snake oil salesman is going to be the new Governor.

      May God have mercy on the people of North Carolina.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 01:55:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Tell me about it (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        I tried telling all of my center-left friends that this sort of shit is why they shouldn't vote for him, but I still know a lot of people who did...

        Sadly I don't think he'll be defeated either, unless the economy is still crappy by 2016.  His appeal to Charlotte and suruban areas is just too much for a Democrat to overcome when the wind isn't at their back.  It's just not enough for him to be mildly unpopular since that won't draw anyone like AG Roy Cooper into the race.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 02:10:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  To early to tell (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Dont think that he's unbeatable, thats a mistake youre doing. He barely won Mecklenburg, Wake and Forsyth counties, while Obama romped Romney in those counties.

          Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

          by BKGyptian89 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 02:18:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  No, I didn't say he's unbeatable (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            just that I don't think he'll lose.  Certainly if he's barely winning Mecklenburg, Wake, and Forsyth he'll be unbeatable, but I think this year might have been his ceiling anyway.  It's just that he does far better than generic R in Mecklenburg, and a significant enough amount better in suburban Raleigh, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, and Wilmington that it destroys any advantage that generic D has in rural areas like Columbus County, for example.  Democrats can only beat him by running up truly monstrous margins in the state's urban areas and that is certainly not what put Perdue into office in 2008.

            Our best hope is probably to have 2016 be a mildly Dem favoring year, run a strong candidate like Cooper and have McCrory and the legislature be unpopular.  And even under those circumstances I bet McCrory's floor is 48%.  The guy is literally the best candidate they could have possibly have hoped to run for any statewide office for at least the past 20 years.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 02:45:59 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I respectfully disagree with you (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bfen

              give it enough time and he'll have  a very challenging re-election in four years time. You've seen some of my comments here on DKE regarding this subject in the last handful of months.

              Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

              by BKGyptian89 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 02:52:32 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Honestly it all just comes down to our bench (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Cooper seems to be the cautious, almost Dick Blumenthal-esque AG who locks down that office, is immensely popular, but only moves up when it's guaranteed.  Of the rest of our statewide officers, nobody comes remotely close to being a strong as he is.

                After that the obvious name is Janet Cowell, but she's merely "generic 1st tier D" whereas Cooper is beyond that, at least going off of publicly available info.  After them there's Wayne Goodwin then a bunch of state legislators I'm unfamiliar with.

                Still, the thing is that I expect McCrory to scare off challengers like Cooper or Cowell given that they can wait another 4 years, so I think he'll end up facing a 2nd tier candidate.  I'd love to be wrong obviously, but I highly doubt someone like Cooper would risk a (possibly) guaranteed 2020 win for a potential 2016 win.

                NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                by sawolf on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 03:08:32 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I bet your attitude will be different in 2 yrs (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  BennyToothpick, MichaelNY

                  again I respectfully disagree. I think McCrory is a punk bitch who is nothing but a robot for his master Art Pop. And he is not going to "scare off challengers" The great thing ya'll got going in North Carolina is that Dems bench have historically been strong, and years by year the demographics become more favorable. It's legitimately a swing state, no if's and or buts. I do think Cooper run for Gov and Cowell runs for US Senate. I wouldnt want to be on the Republican ticket in North Carolina in 4 years.

                  Plus you got rising stars like Deborah K. Ross and Tricia Cotham. Always wondered what happened to Cal Cunningham there was alot of hype bout him.

                  Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

                  by BKGyptian89 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 03:33:38 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

  •  Can anybody who has voted in Nevada (0+ / 0-)

    (or knows where to find it) tell me whether judicial elections for supreme court are partisan or non-partisan?

    Or in general if anyone knows of a single source that tells whether judicial elections are partisan or non-partisan, I'd love to see it.  So far Alabama is the only state I've found (and I'm up to Nevada) where judicial candidates were partisan, at least in the general election.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 01:50:12 PM PST

  •  Ontario County Presidenitial Splits (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gigantomachyusa

    Attention David & co. If you want to learn up on Ontario County in upstate New York the have now released their presidential results by district.

    Basically Romney won the district by around 700 votes, but Obama won the NY-23 portion of Ontario by 1,666 and Romney won the NY-27 portion of Ontario by 2,431 votes.

    Photobucket

    So yeah Hochul outperformed Obama in NY-27 portion of Ontario as she won by 268 votes.

    Photobucket

    Shinagowa underperformed Obama as he lost to Reed by 916 votes in the NY-23 portion.

    Photobucket

    Looking forward to the Tioga County results as then NY-23 (which I am doing a diary on) will be complete. It looks like it will be very close as to whether this will be an Obama or a Romney district ! (Still likely to be a Romney district I feel).

    Gots to go, enjoy.

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

    by CF of Aus on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 02:10:03 PM PST

  •  Stephen Lynch (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf, JBraden, MichaelNY

    Sure hope they're talking about the guitar-playing comedian of the same name, because Rep. Lynch is one of the worst Democrats there is. Kind of hope he does run and gets creamed, then gets embittered and switches to the GOP and loses re-election. Like we need another anti-abortion dumb-principled doofus in the New England delegation.

  •  Impending special elections alert (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, MichaelNY

    MO - HD158: Gov. Jay Nixon (D) appointed State Rep Don Ruzicka (R-Mount Vernon) to the State Parole Board and Ruzicka resigned today and signaled an intent to not serve his 2013-14 term. His appointment is still subject to confirmation. The seat is in heavily Republican Lawrence County. But it was won by a Democrat (Charles Dake) in a 2006 special election. You may know that election as proof that horse vets make for good candidates in rural areas. At least according to Jeff Smith (I don't know where it ranks in the list of popular occupations that make for good springboards to elective office)

    MN - HD19A: Terry Morrow (DFL-St. Peter) resigned to take a job leading legislative efforts nationwide for the Chicago-based Uniform Law Commission. The district is around 52% Obama and Morrow was unopposed in November. Allen Quist is considering bouncing back from a loss to Tim Walz by running here.

    NH - Hillsborough 31: A special election is set for April 9th to replace Stacie Laughton. She resigned over uncertainty over her ability to hold office (due to felony convictions). The first candidate to announce for this Nashua-based district is Stacie Laughton, who seeks to succeed herself. Laughton has been in the news as the first openly transgendered legislator in the nation.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 03:57:07 PM PST

    •  correction (0+ / 0-)

      HD157, not HD158. It's gonna take time to deal with how the judges drawing the MO House map changed almost every district's number (they put the numbers in a coherent geographic sequence, as opposed to before, where district 61 was in St. Louis, district 62 was in Barry County (SWMO) and district 63 was in St. Louis, because STL lost a seat to SWMO)

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 04:07:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MA DEMS need to change the law (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, LordMike, MichaelNY

    were there wont be ANY special election at all. The only election will be in Nov of '14. Duh!

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 04:00:45 PM PST

    •  Nope. That's sleazy and crooked. (0+ / 0-)

      The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 04:15:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  IDC (4+ / 0-)

        anything to keep that SOB from getting back in the senate is alright with me. I could care less how sleazy and crooked it is. Matter of fact they should be it in the middle of the night.

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 04:20:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sounds like a page out of Scott Walkers book... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Inkan1969, sapelcovits

          I can imagine him doing this if Johnson decided to retire back to the public sector.  

          The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

          by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 05:16:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  First of all do they have that law in Wisconsin (0+ / 0-)

            that you got to have a special election before the general?and Johnson is a dead man walking anyway

            Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

            by BKGyptian89 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 05:25:18 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Right, but this would be no different than Walker (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              changing whatever rules there is in order to allow him to handpick the replacement and serve until the next Sen cycle.  

              The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

              by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 05:29:16 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  What's your point? (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, LordMike, MichaelNY

            The Republicans play hard. Democrats should play hard. They should change the law to allow Gov. Patrick's appointee to serve until 2014, and Patrick should appoint a strong Democrat who is interested in seeking reelection -- preferably someone young, too, like Ayanna Pressley, David Simas, Mayor Setti Warren, or Rep.-elect Joe Kennedy III.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 06:36:18 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Republicans are crooked. (0+ / 0-)

              I don't think Dems should sink so low as to be in the sewer shit with Republicans like Walker, Scott, and Snyder.  

              You don't go about changing legislative rules solely to benefit you politically in the short term like this.  

              The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

              by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 08:22:53 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yes, you do (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingTag, LordMike, MichaelNY

                Or else you lose. Politics ain't beanbag. We're not talking about rigging the Electoral College; we're talking about changing Massachusetts' special election law back to what it is for the majority of other states, including South Carolina and Hawaii, which will also have appointed senators within two weeks' time.

                Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 08:43:56 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  This is equal to rigging the EC... (0+ / 0-)

                  This is taking an election away from the voters to benefit your own political party.  

                  If you feel so strongly about wanting to change it back - than they should have did so right after Brown won in 2009 or after the Kerry special election is held.  Doing so now, would be so utterly brazen, baldly partisan and undemocratic.  Trying to sell it as "fairness because other States do it this way" is a kin to the GOP trying to sell their EC changes as "fairness" because the states are 50-50 and thus shouldn't be winner-take-all, after they gerrymandered the hell out of those same states to take a one-sided edge in Congressional seats and secured legislative majorities that don't represent the 50-50 breakdown of the state.  

                  The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

                  by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:09:06 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  What you suggest could also be called (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico, KingTag, LordMike, MichaelNY

                unilateral disarmament.

                I wish we could be idealists in the way you suggest in political actions. But I think it is the way to tie another hand behind our backs.

                I hope; therefore, I can live.

                by tietack on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 08:47:19 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  I don't know if it helps any... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Brown's image can only improve with time.  It's probably better to have our nominee go against the republican party as a whole during or right after the GOP fiscal cliff/debt ceiling hostage taking that will consume most of next year.

              GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

              by LordMike on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 09:51:47 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  at the same time (7+ / 0-)

        how much potency would it have in costing the Massachusetts Dems too much in 2014? they could just claim it's a "cost-saving measure"

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 04:27:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It wouldn't hurt Mass Dems too much... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Other than give Brown something to whine about and use in his Gov race (or 2014 Sen race, but I think he'd run in the Gov race).  But I think it would hurt Dems in the high ground against games Michigan, Pa, Ohio and the like could play.  Now the high ground business might only matter to political junkies who pay attention to the stuff but it would be rather hypocritical to condemn any Snyder, Walker, Kasich, Corbett hyper-partisan crap when we'd game the rules outselves.  

          The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

          by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 05:25:00 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Though I would wonder if there would be (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            go-go types who would vote Repub because of it.  I mean there was folks who voted Walker because they don't believe in recalls.  

            The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

            by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 05:41:00 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Sleazy and crooked <=> partisan politics (4+ / 0-)

        I understand that partisan political maneuvering is often sleazy and crooked. It is often an unpleasant business.

        I hope; therefore, I can live.

        by tietack on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 04:39:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  So the Mi, Oh and Pa State legislature... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingTag, MichaelNY

          Wanting to change their EV system to proportional from winner-take-all is just unpleasant business?

          I understand getting a little messy and fighting fire with fire, but I also like the high ground.  I'd much rather not have chosen Kerry than screw with the system in Massachusetts again.  

          The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

          by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 05:18:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  The legislature has the authority to change laws (9+ / 0-)

        Besides, it would actually save the state money. No reason why the appointment can't last until the next scheduled federal election, which is when the seat is up anyway.

        26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 04:56:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The reason why it can't is because Dems changed it (0+ / 0-)

          only recently to benefit them politically in the first place.  They should have had the foresight to fix it after Brown was elected in 2009 - you can't do something like this looking down another special election.  

          The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

          by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 05:26:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Why not change it again? (5+ / 0-)

        They changed the law to require a special election when Kerry was running for President, then they changed it to allow an appointment when Kennedy died. It's silly, not to mention costly, to require a special statewide election outside of the normal general elections.

        •  I'm all for changing it AFTER the Kerry SE though (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I think it's a bad, costly system and should be fixed once and for all without taint of partisan hackery.  

          Make it so the Governor chooses replacement from the same party as the departing Senator from a list provided by state party and that replacement will serve until the next senate cycle election where there will be a special.  

          (Basically the Hawaii regs)

          The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

          by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 05:21:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Not a fan of Wisc recalls then? (0+ / 0-)

          The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

          by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 05:41:42 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  I'm watcing "Miracle on 34th Street" (7+ / 0-)

    (the original of course) and had a nice laugh when they brought up the politics angle of the judge's decision about whether to declare Kris Kringle insane because he declares himself to be Santa Claus.  Someone with the defense said that if the judge rules him insane for saying he's Santa Claus, then it will wreck the commercial aspect of Christmas and many union jobs will be lost and he'll have the CIO and AFL (before they merged, I presume) on his back during his next election, he'll wreck the celebrations, and the only person who'll vote for him will be the judge himself and the District Attorney.  To which the Judge rebuts with: "Except the DA is a Republican."  

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 04:55:39 PM PST

  •  I hope Markey doesn't run. (0+ / 0-)

    I can't stand a guy who wants to ban any rollercoaster that pulls more than 2 Gs, being a coaster enthusiast.

    He brings it up about every year it seems.  

    •  I honestly don't see why he wants to run now. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      madmojo, SaoMagnifico

      He'd be giving up thirty-six years of service and his No. 8 Seniority position in the upcoming congress, along with his Ranking Membership on the Natural Resources Committee to become a freshman Senator at age 67, 100th in seniority.

      While he's been an active and good legislator I think he would be the worst of the commonly mentioned candidates to take on Brown (besides Lynch). He doesn't seem particularly charismatic and could come across as a tired old Democratic hack, in a way I don't think Carmen Ortiz or Ben Downing would.

      I hope he stays in the House.  

      •  He does seem to fit the House more naturally. (0+ / 0-)

        I don't think he could win against Brown either.  I'm so surprised there seems to be such a shallow bench of good candidates in a state like Massachusetts.

      •  Gerymandering from 2010 census... (0+ / 0-)

        Has basically guaranteed GOP the House majority for the next 10 years.  

        He'd be joining a majority now, decent change to hang on in 2014, and then a very good shot at having majority in 2016 class.  

        If Markey was the #1 recruit here (not saying he is) he should talk to Reid and see what his plans are for filibuster reform though because if there isn't meaningful reforms, well being in the minority in the House isn't much different than being in majority in Senate where GOP filibusters everything.  

        The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

        by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 05:15:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  If you could run, (0+ / 0-)

        would you rather be in the Senate or the House?

        The Senate's the more prestigious body, where each person has significantly more pull.

        I can easily see why he'd want to move up.

        And of the House members being talked about for the position, he's arguably the most compelling candidate, with a focus on energy policy and a significant record of achievements.

        I don't get why you find him uncharismatic. He doesn't burn up the charts on the charisma scale, but he's certainly sufficiently charismatic. He keeps my attention when he speaks. And he seems to have an "authentic" Massachusetts vibe.

        Are you serious about Ben Downing? He's a kid, isn't he? Not much experience to speak of at all? I would hate to roll the dice like that.

        •  The Senate, but If I had 18 terms in the House (0+ / 0-)

          and were 67 years old, with a powerful perch on the Natural Resources Committee, I wouldn't give it up to become 100 out of 100 in a senatorial body. The not "burning up the charts" thing is exactly why I don't think he's charismatic, and while he doesn't bore me to death, I don't find him particularly engaging either.

          I agree out of the House members, he'd be the strongest and he does have that MA vibe, but I'd rather he stay in the House; he seems a better fit for it.

          Downing has the same amount of State Senate experience Brown does, plus he's only 31 and I could easily see him outworking Brown. I've seen a few videos of his speaking and YouTube and he seems pretty energetic and engaging, while not looking Josh Mandelesque. I think in the long-term, he'd be a better choice than Markey. I could see him building up a lot of clout.

          •  He doesn't have the life experience, though (0+ / 0-)

            There are some young state legislators in this country, and I'm fine with that -- especially in states with small legislative districts, where they can represent their constituency while remaining immersed in and in touch with their home communities. Congress is a different sack of apples entirely. You're effectively ensconced in one of two bubbles (Capitol Hill or the reelection campaign) and you're not spending much time at home at all. You're representing hundreds of thousands, millions, tens of millions of people and taking votes that can affect hundreds of millions or billions of people.

            So if you're asking me to choose between someone who is middle-aged and someone who is in his early 30s, and neither one of them is pure evil or completely insane (take your pick as to which best describes Rep. Allen West), I'm going to be more inclined toward the person with more life experience. That's not to say I'd support Sen. Scott Brown over Ben Downing, because I think Brown is a charlatan, but I do think Brown is the more qualified candidate.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 06:48:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Nominating a young, obscure state senator... (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701, itskevin, jncca, MichaelNY

            Is going to give persuadable voters all the excuse they need to send Sen. Scott Brown back to the Senate.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 06:52:34 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  LOL (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, SLDemocrat

              spot the irony.

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 04:23:04 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  This is a different situation than 2010 (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Seriously, can we not recognize that? Yes, it's a very Democratic state, and we can definitely hold this seat, but Sen. Scott Brown isn't a generic Republican; he's the most popular politician in the state (or damn close; depends on which poll you want to trust), and voters may see this as an opportunity to have their cake and eat it too (both Sen.-elect Warren and Scott Brown in the Senate).

                Brown developed a strong personal brand based in large part on his family and lifestyle. He'd been in the state legislature since 1998, was a lieutenant colonel in the Army National Guard, and drove that damn pickup truck.

                Downing has none of that.

                Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                by SaoMagnifico on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 01:50:55 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  well, while it's true that driving a (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  pickup truck is worth 20 points in Massachusetts, Downing has a huge advantage Brown didn't: he's a Democrat. he also isn't fresh off of losing the office he'd be running for.

                  Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Sat Dec 22, 2012 at 04:20:45 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

        •  I am so unimpressed with Downing (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          I'm sure he sees himself as this political wunderkind whose career is on an unstoppable upward trajectory to the Oval Office, but I think he needs to earn his stripes before he thinks about leaping out of obscurity to replace a titan in the Senate. He just strikes me as an overly ambitious, cocky "New Ivy" climber. Sen. Scott Brown would probably destroy him.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 06:42:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I feel like Steve Grossman might be the strongest (0+ / 0-)

        candidate.

        He has won statewide, and could race a lot of money quickly. From what I've heard, he is fairly progressive.

  •  another VRA bailout (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    New Hampshire got the first state wide bailout today.
     Press Release

  •  question about San Diego (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    the area as most of you know is a military town. Do a lot of the veterans tend to live inland? My aunt and uncle live in Rancho San Diego (near El Cajon) and seems to be culturally isolated from the more more urban parts of the county.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 08:58:24 PM PST

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