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This is my newest stab at an alternate (Democratic) gerrymander of North Carolina, one of my favorite states to redistrict.

1st: GK Butterfield (D)
Partisan Stats: D+13, 68% Dem Avg
Racial Stats: 50% Black, 42% White
Black % of Democratic Primary (estimated based on # of Blacks over 18/# of Obama votes, which I know is rough and inaccurate.  It will probably be on the high end, since Whites will turn out in primaries more than Blacks): 76%
This VRA district loses a bit of its ugly arm into the Central Coastal part of the state, instead adding an arm to Durham, some areas in the Western end of the district (more of Nash and Granville, some of Person and Caswell), as well as small Tyrell County in the East.  All in all, it remains pretty similar, as it's a tough district to change.

2nd: Brad Miller (D) vs. George Holding (R)
Partisan Stats: D+3, 55% Dem Avg
Racial Stats: 61% White, 25% Black
Black Primary %: 45
This district is made for a Raleigh Democrat, like Brad Miller.  Nearly the entire city is here, as are many suburbs like Wake Forest, Garner, and the bluer (R+12) parts of Johnston County, as well as more exurban and rural areas north of Wake County.  It has little in common with either Etheridge or Ellmers' 2nd districts.  Holding couldn't win.

3rd: Walter Jones (R)
Partisan Stats: R+15, 41% Dem Avg
Racial Stats: 82% White, 12% Black
Black Primary %: 30
Jones gets an even redder version of his old district.  He loses swingy Tyrrell to the 1st, as well as much of Pitt County (split 4 ways on this map), Wayne County, and Wilson County.  In the South, he loses the bluer parts of the Jacksonville Area.  The district isn't contiguous here because of a giant precinct, which would be split under an actual map.  Finally, Jones gains some blood red areas from McIntyre's district along the Coast near South Carolina.

4th: David Price (D)
Partisan Stats: D+3, 54% Dem Avg
Racial Stats: 69% White, 16% Black
Black Primary %: 28
Other than the chunk of Durham he loses, Price's district is very clean and quite similar to his old one.  He loses a chunk of Southern Wake County, as well as Chapel Hill.  In return, he gets some more red territory: part of Person, the rest of Chatham, and all of Lee.  

5th District: Virginia Foxx (R)
Partisan Stats: R+21, 35% Dem Avg
Racial Stats: 89% White
Black Primary %: 17
Foxx gets a very similar district, particularly geographically, but it's redder mainly because she loses her half of Winston-Salem, which contained swingy and light blue areas, as well as the college town of Boone. Instead, she gets more of Rockingham County, some very red Greensboro suburbs, a little bit of Davidson County, and much of Caldwell, Avery, and Mitchell Counties in Appalachia.  

6th: Howard Coble/Renee Ellmers (R)
Partisan Stats: R+21, 35% Dem Avg
Racial Stats: 80% White, 11% Black
Black Primary %: 35
Coble and Ellmers are combined in a V shaped vote sink, with no real population centers.  For a vote sink, it's not THAT ugly.  

7th: Mike McIntyre (D)
Partisan Stats: EVEN, 57% Dem Avg
Racial Stats: 54% White, 28% Black
Black Primary % (likely inaccurate due to the number of DINOs in this area): 51
The only way to get a district McIntyre's successor could hold is to make it possible his successor is a Black moderate like Sanford Bishop.  McIntyre loses much of his coastal area, as well as some of the Fayetteville area, but keeps his base, the rural counties.  He gains arms to Jacksonville and Greenville.  He'll be very safe here until he retires, despite the PVI.  

8th: Larry Kissell (or, even better, a different Democrat) vs. Robert Pittenger/Richard Hudson (R)
Partisan Stats: D+2, 55% Dem Avg
Racial Stats: 54% White, 33% Black
Black Primary %: 59
I tried to gerrymander this as best I could for a Black Democrat without sacrificing the neighboring districts, so it may not be enough.  The district is actually very similar to the old one.  Major differences include the territory in Cumberland and Mecklenburg Counties, as well as trading Cabarrus County for more of Monroe County.  Republicans do have a shot here, but I'm not sure how much crossover appeal either of the two incumbents in the Charlotte Area have.  My guess is almost zero.

9th: Mel Watt (D) or OPEN (D) vs. Robert Pittenger (R) or OPEN (R)
Partisan Stats: D+4, 52% Dem Avg
Racial Stats: 59% White, 24% Black, 11% Hispanic
Black Primary %: 42
Lots of choices here; it could be anything from incumbent on incumbent to a totally open seat, depending where the incumbents choose to run.  Regardless, it's a Lean D seat.  

10th: Patrick McHenry (R)
Partisan Stats: R+19, 36% Dem Avg
Racial Stats: 86% White
Black Primary %: 19
McHenry keeps his safe seat here.  It loses the Northernmost 4 counties, instead gaining McDowell, Polk, Henderson, and more of Gaston.  It is compact except for the arm the 11th takes out of it.

11th: Mark Meadows (R)
Partisan Stats: R+4 in 2008, so about R+6, 50% Dem Avg
Racial Stats: 85% White
Black Primary %: 15
Meadows would be relatively safe, but if Shuler decides to run against him that could change.  The district is similar to Shuler's old district, but by removing McDowell, Polk, and most of Henderson Counties and replacing them with an arm to Boone and an arm to Gaston, Obama won this district by 195 votes in 2008.

12th: OPEN (D) or Mel Watt (D)
Partisan Stats: D+3, 54% Dem Avg
Racial Stats: 59% White, 30% Black
Black Primary %: 53
Drawn to maximize the chances of a Black representative while keeping neighboring districts blue, this ends up looking like a less skinny version of Watt's old district.  It has parts of all six counties the current one does, and even adds a seventh.  However, it is much less ugly, although still quite gerrymandered. Black Democratic areas in Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Thomasville, Lexington, Salisbury, Statesville, and a bit of Charlotte are balanced by more Republican suburb

13th: OPEN (D)
Partisan Stats: D+4, 54% Dem Avg
Racial Stats: 68% White, 20% Black
Black Primary %: 35
This is the "White" Greensboro/Winston Salem district.  It starts in the liberal college town of Chapel Hill, takes in red Alamance County, reaches up to grab the blue (and Black) part of Rockingham, then attempts to take in as many White liberals as possible in the Greensboro/Winston Salem area.

Here's the statewide view:

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO, ProudNewEnglander, WisJohn

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 03:57:08 PM PST

  •  You omitted Craven County from your VRA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    district and it needs to go there since it's section 5 covered. McIntyre can take the hit though.

    Also, you should give the actual Obama numbers and the partisan average since that's really much more informative anyway.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 04:31:00 PM PST

    •  Okay, I'll add in the partisan average (0+ / 0-)

      But I don't see why the Obama numbers matter.  PVI is more useful than a raw number.

      And ugh, didn't know that about Craven.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 04:39:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, I guess what I really meant to do was (0+ / 0-)

        ask for one more decimal point.  I shouldn't have just assumed you'd do that with Obama's numbers, so yeah it doesn't matter re PVI.

        Also while this is quite good for a 9-4 and would have no doubt given us 9 this year, several of those seats are quite vulnerable and I bet Richard Burr won all of them but the 1st and maybe the 7th, so it's not inconceivable that several could fall or even be held by Republicans in a year similar to 2004.  I think a solid 8-5 is the way to go since you can get 6 liberals and ensure that McIntyre can be prodded left or that his successor is a Democrat.

        When you redraw your map to put Craven in the 1st you should strengthen Kissell and the 9th district at McIntyre's expense.  His old seat was 51% Dem and he had it locked down so there's no need to have it at 57% when the other two are weaker, particularly Kissell.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 10:21:08 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I like it (0+ / 0-)

    I've never been a fan of including Durham in CD1, but it seems like we'll be stuck with it regardless.  Otherwise I really like CD13, even though it disregards the triangle and the triad as COH.

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