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WBURreleased a poll that MassINC had done for them for a special election in 2013.   The poll looked at the favorables of Scott Brown and a few other Republicans(Bill Weld and Charlie Baker) and also quite a few Democrats(Governor Deval Patrick, Attorney General and 2010 special election loser Martha Coakley, Rep. Edward Markey, Rep. Michael Capuano, Rep. Stephen Lynch and ex-Rep. Marty Meehan).

The poll surveyed 500 registered voters and was 36D-11R-53I.    The toplines(contains PDF) also show a gender mix of 52% female/48% male and breakdown in age was 18% 18-29, 25% 30-44%, 29% 45-59, 28% 60+.    There is no listing for Obama voters that I could find.  Crosstabs are here.  (Contains PDF)

The poll found that Scott Brown has a 58/28 favorable and unfavorable.   Brown has the highest favorable for any not named Deval Patrick, who has a pretty sweet 60/26.   The Democrat with the next highest favorable was Martha Coakley with 48/27.   Of the Congresspeople:  Markey and Lynch both have 24/12 with Lynch getting the higher amount of heard of/undecided with 34%(Markey's was 27%) and Markey having 33% never heard of.  (Lynch gets 27% there).     Capuano was 23/11 with 34% and 30% with undecided and never heard of.   Meehan was 21/12 with 27% and 36% so Meehan would have to biggest challenge is getting his name out there.

As far as head to head:  Brown would get 51% against Coakley or Lynch, 49% against Meehan, 48% percent against Markey, and 47% against Patrick or Capuano.   If you look at just the Democratic candidate's numbers Patrick would get 40% Coakley would have 36% against Brown, and 30% would vote for Markey or Meehan.  Capuano would count on 28% and Lynch gets the lowest one with 24%.   The Don't Know numbers on Markey, Capuano, Lynch and Meehan are around 15% so they could make up a lot of ground if there isn't a tough primary and the Democratic candidate could define himself or herself to the voters.

Overall, it seems like a boneheaded political move by Barack Obama to turn a Safe D race in 2014 into a Lean R race in 2013 even if Kerry is extremely qualified.

1:29 PM PT: As someone pointed out in the David Nir's diary on the two polls, MassInc had Brown up by 4 in October so this could be slanted towards Brown(Warren as we know wound up winning by 8)

And there is a WashPo story that mentions that Meehan won't run.

Originally posted to pistolSO on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:56 PM PST.

Also republished by Massachusetts Kosmopolitans.

Poll

Strongest candidate against Scott Brown

21%7 votes
0%0 votes
28%9 votes
0%0 votes
18%6 votes
3%1 votes
25%8 votes
3%1 votes

| 32 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  I'll keep watching this race (7+ / 0-)

    since I live in Central Massachusetts.

    Washington and Colorado said that you've got to legalize it. Hope the DOJ respects that.

    by pistolSO on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:55:46 PM PST

  •  Yeah I don't get it. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Eikyu Saha, HoundDog
  •  Great. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO, Eikyu Saha, HoundDog, revsue

    Here we go again. We so didn't need this right now.

  •  Do you know if Patrick has shown any interest? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO

    With his favorables, I don't see Brown winning. But I thought I heard that Patrick wasn't interested. He's really good friends with Obama, so maybe he would run if Obama encouraged him to. He gave a great speech at the convention, but I thought that was for a presidential run. What's the possibility of having two African-Americans be back-to-back presidents? Hmmm...

  •  So Brown would beat Patrick? Really? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeffW, Rosalie907

    I do not know the state, but people from there seem confident that Governor Patrick would beat Brown rather handily.

    I would like to see more polling before I start believing that Brown will cruise to a win. I don't like the idea of Kerry to SOS, but I believe Brown is going to have to fight really hard to get back into the Senate. Much harder than this poll would have us believe.

    "There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills.".. Buddha

    by sebastianguy99 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 01:05:41 PM PST

  •  Sure he is! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO, Calamity Jean

    And Romney was gonna trounce Obama.

    Just sample mostly Republicans, and keep repeating those numbers...

    Float like a manhole cover, sting like a sash weight! Clean Coal Is A Clinker!

    by JeffW on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 01:07:16 PM PST

    •  The sample was 36D-11R-53I (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JeffW, HoundDog

      Independents(or as they are called here in Massachusetts Unenrolled) are the largest group of voters, they do outnumber Democrats, but they do lean Democratic.

      I suppose I should research what the baseline percentages are in Massachusetts though.

      Washington and Colorado said that you've got to legalize it. Hope the DOJ respects that.

      by pistolSO on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 01:11:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  One survey does not... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pistolSO, Calamity Jean

        ...a reelection make for ex-Senator Gatefold.

        Float like a manhole cover, sting like a sash weight! Clean Coal Is A Clinker!

        by JeffW on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 01:14:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  'Tis True. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JeffW, fwcetus

          I think avoiding a messy primary and choosing either Markey or Capuano is our best shot against Brown.  The more time we can define Brown as an anti-choice, pro-gun, pro-Wall Street guy the better.    And Markey or Capuano can define themselves as fighting for the middle class and for women really easily.

          Washington and Colorado said that you've got to legalize it. Hope the DOJ respects that.

          by pistolSO on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 01:18:44 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I hope you're right. eom (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JeffW

          Renewable energy brings national global security.     

          by Calamity Jean on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 03:44:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  The baseline percentages (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pistolSO

        are pretty close to the survey's.

        MassInc was a little funky in 2012, but I think Brown's in a very good position if he runs (he would have to defend the seat AGAIN in Nov. 2014). Not impossible to beat him, but with independents and Republicans (and the Dems who liked him in 2010), his brand is untouched. Approval ratings, across the three party IDs, identical in PPP poll from Jan. 2010 to PPP poll in Nov. 2010.

        With low turnout in a special, close to even odds we lose the seat, if not Brown as slight favorite.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 05:21:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  On What Planet Would Anyone Ever Consider..... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO, NorthBronxDem, Yosef 52

    Martha Coakley running against Scott Brown again?  

    She blew it big time last time.  Her name shouldn't even be in the mix.  

    •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pistolSO

      She ran a lousy campaign and got her clock cleaned.  My money is on either Markey or Capuano getting the nomination.

      •  Coakley already said (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pistolSO

        she's not running.

        She'd have little enthusiasm from base Dems still annoyed at her for losing in such lazy fashion in 2010.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 05:22:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  After the campaign Brown ran in 2012 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO, bosdcla14

    Against Senator-elect Elizabeth Warren, with all his gaffs and those of his volunteers and campaign staff (not to mention his Senate Staffers) I find this poll hard to believe.  Brown is currently pandering, saying that he'll vote for stricter gun controls if in the Senate and a few other comments he's made.  Also, I don't think he'll have all that much Tea Party support as he did the last time.

    Never be afraid to voice your opinion and fight for it . Corporations aren't people, they're Republicans (Rev Al Sharpton 10/7/2011)

    by Rosalie907 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 01:16:57 PM PST

    •  I thought Brown had hurt himself w/ the lack (0+ / 0-)

      of class he demonstrated during that campaign.  

      Apparently I was wrong.  

      •  You were wrong (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pistolSO

        I looked at his approval among Dems, GOP, independents the weekend before he was elected in 2010, then in the last poll before this November's election (both PPP polls). No change in his approval among any party ID.

        Most folks just don't follow the details like we do. He gets very high marks among independents (who voted for him 2-1 in 2010 and 2012 both) for the moderate, bi-partisan act. All that changed is some Democrats who'd thought he was OK entering 2012 rallied to the party with an election coming.

        Warren was a neophyte, but got better on the stump as the year went on. Did great in debates (so much so he ducked the last one though trailing in polls). And she was a progressive celebrity who inspired many, many volunteers. difference, we had huge urban Democratic turnout in a Presidential year. Won't have it in a special election in the summer.

        And all we have to run against him (barring change of heart by Gov. Patrick) are House members not known well outside their districts.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 05:26:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, I question this one as well (0+ / 0-)

      Brown lost and lost badly against a political neophyte who made a lot of mistakes at first.  I can't imagine him going very far against a seasoned pol like Markey, Patrick, or Capuano, who are really the only viable Democratic candidates.  Deval is very popular, Markey has an excellent record, and Capuano would wipe the floor with Brown during debates.  

  •  yup. they are consistent... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO

    I distinctly remember thinking, late into October, way past the point when they became the outlier, that WBUR still had Brown up on Warren.  

    Now Brown has a record AND a miserable, racist, sexist, anti-intellectual campaign race run here in MA.

    He's gotta lotta 'splainin' to do.

    Good luck with that.

    "When you're skating on thin ice, you might as well dance." Jesse Winchester

    by The Poet Deploreate on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 01:37:55 PM PST

  •  Awesome. (0+ / 0-)

    Oh, Senator Kerry. You'll make a great SOS, but jeez, this sucks.

    A thousand Sharkeys are invading a thousand Shires every day across our country.--James Wells

    by SouthernLiberalinMD on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 02:40:26 PM PST

  •  Other: Barney Frank. (0+ / 0-)

    Patrick should name him for the five month term, and once back on stage I'm certain Frank would want the full time job. And, he'd kick Brown's ass every single day of the campaign.

    "Your opponent can't talk when he has your fist in his mouth." - Bill Clinton

    by MethuenProgressive on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 05:49:54 PM PST

  •  David Koch will be pleased. (0+ / 0-)
  •  We have our work cut out for us, but it ain't (0+ / 0-)

    going to be that easy for him to just slip right in. The media is telling MA that he is next - we need to challenge that. No one really talked about his lack of a record in the state.

    AND he signed the Norquist pledge - to not work with Democrats.... got an A from the NRA.... despite flip-flops, that commitment is still on record.

    Women are 51% of the population yet are represented in congress by barely 17%! Until our representation reflects the population, we risk sliding backwards .....

    by 51percent on Tue Dec 25, 2012 at 06:09:52 AM PST

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