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Pres-by-CD: Two districts today, both from Ohio. We're adding OH-06 and OH-13, the first the site of a failed comeback attempt by former Dem Rep. Charlie Wilson, and the second a vote-sink constructed for Dem Tim Ryan. The presidential numbers bear that out, as the Appalachian-tinged OH-06 dropped a few points for Obama (at 43 percent, the district was a tough haul for Wilson) and OH-13 even improved fractionally for the President, to 63 percent. (jeffmd)

9:06 AM PT: NJ-Gov, NJ-Sen: After seemingly endless speculation, Newark Mayor Cory Booker has made it clear he won't run against GOP Gov. Chris Christie in 2013, depriving Democrats of their strongest possible candidate, at least judging by poll numbers. (He's also made an announcement video, which is where I've taken the quotes below from.) It's not too surprising: Booker had long been cozier than average with Christie, and on top of that, Christie's sky-high approval numbers in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, while perhaps fleeting, making him look like an incredibly tough opponent at the moment.

Instead, Booker says he'll complete his second term as mayor (which runs until July 1, 2014), and that he'll "explore the possibility of running for the United States Senate." The difficulty there is that the Senate seat in question is already occupied by Democrat Frank Lautenberg, and Booker doesn't sound especially interested in primarying him—or at least, he doesn't want to come off sounding that way, for now, saying he "looks forward to consulting" with Lautenberg about his plans and adding that it would be a "privilege and honor to continue his legacy of service."

But Lautenberg is very old (88), and many New Jersey Democrats seem eager for him to retire. Booker's "exploratory" move may pressure Lautenberg to hang it up: If the flattery doesn't work, then the prospect of a bruising campaign against a much younger, energetic, and well-connected politician might convince Lautenberg he's better off handing things over to Booker than going out with a loss. And should Lautenberg look unexpectedly strong, Booker can always back down and bide his time, seeing as he's only 43.

Right now, though, Garden State Dems are going to be focused on defeating Christie, and at the very least, Booker's decision will give other candidates who've been considering a gubernatorial bid more certainty and allow them in turn to make up their minds. So far, only one person has declared (state Sen. Barbara Buono), but Booker's move may open the floodgates for other contenders. And while Christie looks formidable now, things can change a lot between now and next November.

10:18 AM PT: KY-Sen: This is pretty damn amazing. I'm sure you recall last week's freakout from the Mitch McConnell campaign, over a PPP poll that put the senator up just 47-43 on several different potential Democratic candidates, including actress Ashley Judd. Grunted McConnell's campaign manager:

On the first day of Republican Campaign Manager School, they teach us to ignore PPP polls. You see, PPP is a partisan Democrat polling firm, and they make their living giving the Democrat Party numbers they want to see.
Well guess what? McConnell himself just put out his own internal poll from Voter/Consumer Research in an effort to combat these obviously phony PPP numbers (yes, I'm rolling my eyes)... and what did he find? That he's up... 47-43 over Judd! Holy lord! Did they teach this in Republican Campaign Manager School, too? You know, screeching about unfair partisan polls, then being stupid enough to release private numbers that are identical? It sure seems so.

I definitely wouldn't have published this data if I were McConnell, though. If he's leading by only four points in a poll from a Republican firm, then that's certainly not good news for him. Also note that he didn't release head-to-heads against any other candidate, which can only encourage speculation that his performance is worse against other potential contenders. (I mean, if the numbers were "good"—at least by McConnell's warped definition, then he'd share them, right?)

The only positive news here for the Senate minority leader is that he holds a 51-40 job approval rating in this survey, compared to the abysmal 37-55 score PPP found. But even that silver lining comes with a touch of gray, because if he's ahead by four points with a -18 net approval (according to PPP), shouldn't his head-to-head advantage be even bigger if he actually sports a +11 net rating? Using PPP numbers, he can at least say, "Well, despite my awful approvals, I'm ahead by four points." With V/CR's data, he has to gulp and acknowledge, "Wow, I'm only up four points despite some pretty good approvals."

All that said, I'm not hugely optimistic about Democrats' chances to unseat McConnell. But I think he's in weak shape and is going to have to seriously grind this one out if he wants to serve another term. And win or lose, making Mitch McConnell's life miserable definitely counts as a success.

12:33 PM PT: MA-Sen: John Kerry hasn't even been nominated for Secretary of State, let alone confirmed by the Senate, which is why I've studiously avoided almost all MA-Sen stories. If I were to start chasing down every speculative ghost out there, sooner or later I'd find myself fighting Stay Puft. But Thursday, for some reason, brought two polls on a hypothetical special election, and I guess I don't have it in me to ignore actual polling data. So, to wit: First we have a survey from MassINC on behalf of WBUR, focused mostly on how outgoing Sen. Scott Brown would fare against a variety of potential Democrats. Here are the results:

• 47-40 vs. Gov. Deval Patrick

• 47-28 vs. Rep. Mike Capuano

• 48-30 vs. Rep. Ed Markey

• 49-30 vs. ex-Rep. Marty Meehan

• 51-36 vs. AG Martha Coakley

• 51-24 vs. Rep. Steve Lynch

On the one hand, you can look at these numbers and say, "Wow! Scott Brown leads all these Democrats!" On the other hand, you could observe that Brown has 100 percent name recognition and only two of these potential candidates are comparably well-known: Patrick and Coakley. Coakley, of course, brings baggage from her disastrous 2010 special election run (though she still sports a 47-27 overall favorability rating), while Patrick—who almost certainly won't run—holds Brown to 47 percent. If that number looks somewhat familiar, it's not just because of Mitt Romney: Brown took 46 percent against Elizabeth Warren in his unsuccessful bid for re-election this year, and in this poll, he prevails against Generic D 47-39. So is that his ceiling against a well-liked, strong Democratic opponent in the state of Massachusetts?

Maybe, maybe not. On the one hand, Brown wouldn't have to contend with presidential-year turnout in another special. On the other, there is literally no way Democrats will get caught sleeping like they did three years ago, and Team Blue will move heaven and earth to make sure Scott Brown doesn't pull off yet another victory—if he even runs at all. (And remember, even if he were to run in a special and somehow win, he'd be facing another general election in 2014... and then in 2016. Yikes.) Anyhow, it's a question I'll worry more about if this all comes to pass—and we're at least two if not three "ifs" away.

MassINC also tested a kitchen sink-style primary among Dems, though the results are not too surprising:

Patrick: 36
Coakley: 21
Capuano: 8
Lynch: 5
Markey: 5
Meehan 3
Other: 3
Undecided: 19

For what it's worth, Meehan's already said he won't run (phew), but he's virtually a zero. More important is that Patrick's made it pretty clear he wants to return to the private sector (though his public statements have left him a narrow, lawyerly out). That means his support would have to go somewhere... but who knows? Tons of potential candidates (Joseph P. Kennedy III! Ben Affleck! Vicki Kennedy! Honey Boo Boo!) still lurk out there who were not included in this poll, so it's hard to gauge how strong they'd be in a primary, if there even were one. See, again with the "ifs": I don't mind a little speculation now and again, but this story already has too many question marks.

Oh, and as for that other poll, from Emerson College? Well, it found completely different results! Patrick leads Brown in that survey, 48-43, and he edges Vicki Kennedy (the widow of Ted) 46-40. (For what it's worth, both Dems also beat ex-Gov. Bill Weld.) And in a different primary array, Patrick takes 20 to 16 for Kennedy, 13 for Capuano, and just 11 for Coakley.

What this all says to me is that the picture is far too unsettled for anyone to get a good handle on it—and if anyone does say with certainty that they can predict the future here, well, I'd just like to know if Amazon Prime carries the same model of crystal ball that they're using.


2:19 PM PT: P.S. If Lautenberg does retire—and you can examine the tea leaves of his campaign's response to Booker's announcement—then it's no sure thing Booker would have the primary field to himself. Max Pizarro at PolitickerNJ reports that, according to unnamed sources, Rep. Frank Pallone is also letting his network of supporters know that he, too, would be interested in a Senate run in the event the seat comes open. Pallone doesn't have Booker's high profile, but he's a very adept fundraiser and is quite well-connected, so a race between the two could prove to be a titanic clash.

2:31 PM PT: NH-Sen: This is the kind of "no" that Chuck Schumer would never take as an answer: Outgoing Gov. John Lynch is once again insisting that he has "no interest in going to Washington" and therefore won't take on freshman GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte in 2016. But Chuck has years to work on him, so we'll see if Lynch's will holds out. And while it's not like Lynch is any progressive's favorite Democrat or anything, he would nevertheless be the highest-profile potential challenger Team Blue could field.

2:46 PM PT: HI-Sen: Hawaii Democrats are moving fast to pick a replacement for the late Sen. Dan Inouye. The party is currently accepting applications from interested candidates and intend to present a list of three names (as required by law) to Gov. Neil Abercrombie by Dec. 28. One party official says he hopes a successor can be appointed in time for the January 3rd congressional swearing-in ceremony.

3:04 PM PT: FL-Gov: It's hard to imagine Florida legalizing gay marriage any time soon—or even any time in the distant future—given the GOP stranglehold on the state legislature, but at least according to Quinnipiac, the trends are in the right direction. By a very narrow 45-43 plurality, respondents say they are opposed to gay marriage, but that's down from 50-40 against the last time Quinnipiac asked the question here—and that was just in May! Also, by a 52-42 margin, Floridians are opposed to legalizing marijuana outright, but with numbers like that, I bet you could find support for medical marijuana.

3:08 PM PT: KY Redistricting: One of the most pathetic redistricting debacles of 2011 took place in Kentucky, where courts threw out new maps for the state legislature because too many counties were split—and then legislators failed to pass acceptable maps in time, forcing the state to use badly unconstitutional, decade-old lines with serious population imbalances this fall. Well, the legislature is heading back into session in early January for about a month, and lawmakers will once again try to tackle this serious problem. The November elections didn't change anything, though: Democrats still control the House and the governor's mansion, while the GOP remains in charge of the Senate. So either we're talking compromise, or a court-drawn plan.

3:18 PM PT: AR-Gov: According to Arkansas Talk Business, local Democrats seem pretty burned by AG Dustin McDaniel's admission that he had an affair and are interested in finding a new top-tier standard-bearer. As soon as the McDaniel news broke the other day, I wondered whether and how much it might affect his bid for governor, and I guess the question will be whether anything comes of chatter like this, or if it just winds up petering out. But as for now, that chatter is reportedly focused on outgoing Rep. Mike Ross, who unexpectedly decided to retire from Congress last year—and has said he doesn't want to run for governor.

If McDaniel were to step aside (or look badly weakened), though, perhaps Ross might change his mind. But he's got a lobbying gig already lined up, and he hasn't made any public remarks since the McDaniel news broke, so I'm skeptical. Meanwhile, though, some Republicans are starting to feel friskier in the wake of the McDaniel story: State Sen. Johnny Key says he may throw his hat into the gubernatorial ring, and it sounds like he wants to decide by "the summer of 2013."

3:29 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-Gov: Since the bench of Republicans who can run a competitive statewide race in Washington state pretty much begins and ends with Rob McKenna, you might be wondering whether he's going to try again after losing this year's gubernatorial race by three points. For now, it's sounding like a 'no' -- he told the Yakima Herald Republic that "I want to take a break from public service" and, accordingly, is heading off to private law practice to cash in. Of course, that might be only several years of cashing in, as he didn't explicitly rule out another run, though.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 06:00:09 AM PST

  •  It looks like... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sebastianguy99

    OH-08 and OH-14 also have full results now.  Is something wrong with them?

  •  KS-Pres (0+ / 0-)

    Does anybody know where the 2012 Certificate of Ascertainment is for Kansas? It's not available on the National Archives webpage.

    West Virginia's CoA was just added not too long ago, by the way.

    Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 06:59:41 AM PST

  •  NJ: Cory Booker will run for Senate (9+ / 0-)

    He has decided to run for Senate in 2014 and will tweet the decision sometime today.

    link

    Apparently, there was a poll that showed him a wide lead  lead for Lautenberg in a primary, assuming he runs for another term.

  •  MA-Sen (6+ / 0-)

    Before the freakout occurs just remember that he started out with better numbers with Warren. He is not unbeatable.

    Key items is assuming Patrick doesn't run Coakley is a heavy favorite in the primary while everyone else is in single digits. Bill Weld trails 27-41 to a generic Democrat while Brown leads 47-39. Actual head to heads are worse obviously but this is still a tossup.

    http://www.wbur.org/...

    "If we can't keep our children safe, and I'm afraid to have a dialogue because I'm afraid someone might vote against me, I don't have a right to be here." -- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV)

    by drhoosierdem on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 07:40:08 AM PST

    •  Good (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, KingTag, JBraden, jncca, MichaelNY

      Can we please all shut up about how "Brown will be Demolished by any competent Democrat!!!"!!!"!"!"!"!

      He obviously wouldn't be.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 07:46:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  And he may not run (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, MichaelNY

      I mean, if he runs for Senate, he faces:

      winning the 2013 special election
      winning the 2014 general election
      re-election in another presidential election year in 2020

      He might say, forget that, and take, what I think, would be an easy win to the governor's mansion.

    •  The freakout is unwarranted (7+ / 0-)

      And I really think Brown's numbers are artificially high, as he is STILL a senator, and has extremely high name rec.  I think it will be a different situation when the actual special election is under way.

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Daman09 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 07:57:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The poll numbers are bit a unrealistic (4+ / 0-)

      He wouldn't beat any of those people they tested by close to 20 points, let alone double digits.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 07:58:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, but... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson

      Warren was a really exciting candidate running in a presidential year, and won by only 7 points. Obama won by 23 points.

      The election will occur in 2014, which is not likely to be a strong Dem year.  If I recall correctly, Patrick wants to name a caretaker, not someone who will build incumbency to have an edge in 2014...an incredibly stupid mistake that Nikki Haley did NOT just make.  Never underestimate the Dems' ability to screw up a Senate vacancy (see Bennet, Caroline Kennedy, Roland Burris, Ted Kaufman, Coakley, Gregg).

      I may be wrong, but I've had the impression that Patrick probably wasn't going to run.  He should, though, since he's term-limited anyway.  Maybe he does plan to run and that's why he wants to name a caretaker.  If Coakley is the nominee again, you might as well skip the election and save the state the money.  None of the Reps poll very well and probably aren't known statewide, except Joe Kennedy, who was just elected to the House.

      It just really seems like nobody is going to beat Brown except Patrick or Vicki Kennedy, but you're right...it's still a toss-up until candidates declare.

      •  Was Barney Frank that unpopular? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I mean, I hear he's enjoying retirement, but he was by far the highest-profile Massachusetts Representative in recent years.  Even if we had to beg to get him in, I'd say he starts with a better shot than any of our current reps due to name recognition (and sheer political skill) alone.  

      •  fwiw, the 2010 Nov midterms went pretty well (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        for Dems. Even in a bad year for the party nationwide, none of the momentum from Brown's win carried over to any races in MA really. Dems swept the statewide offices, and a competitive congressional seat.

      •  Special election will be in Summer of 2013... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Gov Patrick names a placeholder that can serve a maximum of four months until a special election is held.  Then the seat is naturally up in November 2014 (when Kerry would have had to run for re-election).  

        The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

        by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:31:53 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Nope. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, bythesea, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

        Per Roll Call:

        Under Massachusetts law, Patrick has 145 to 160 days to schedule a special election following a vacancy. But Patrick’s aides note a vacancy will not occur until Kerry completes the Senate confirmation process. That means a special primary would probably occur in April, with the general election following in June.
      •  I don't see how (7+ / 0-)

        Bennet, Caroline Kennedy (uh, losing the appointment to another Democrat?) or Ted Kaufman were "Dem screwups".

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:48:29 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Neither do I, as all three appointees (4+ / 0-)

          turned out to be excellent Senators, and ultimately we held all three seats even in 2010, though in Colorado and Delaware we had a lot of help from Republican screwups.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 09:40:30 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Here's what I meant (0+ / 0-)

          Bennet was a complete unknown with little political experience or connections, and it was a huge risk to appoint him over someone better known and established.  Yes, he turned out fine, but it was a risk at the time.

          The issue with Caroline Kennedy was not that she ultimately lost the nod to Gillibrand but that the process dug on for so long and made Democrats, especially the governor, look ridiculous.

          And Ted Kaufman is the most annoying of all to me.  Appointing Biden's former Chief of Staff as a caretaker, knowing he wouldn't run in the election, was a transparent attempt to hold the seat for Beau Biden, as if he were entitled to it, when it turns out he was too chicken shit to go up against Mike Castle.  I think it's hilarious that Coons ultimately won, but it was foolish to reserve the seat like that for someone who it turns out has no spine.  The whole thing was rigged for Beau and he left us hanging.

          •  All of Obama's appointees from the Senate (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JGibson, jncca

            in 2008 ended up causing problems for the party.  Here's what we ended up with:

            AZ: Jan Brewer as governor
            IL:  a joke for a Senator in Roland Burris and a national stain on the party thanks to Blago
            CO: a political newcomer who got lucky with the GOP nominee
            DE: a weaker than expected candidate in DE who also got lucky with the GOP nominee
            NY: a laughing stock of a governor in NY who happened to appoint a fairly conservative Democrat who almost nobody was happy with until she started voting like a liberal (and now has one of the most liberal voting records)

            I think all of these brought unnecessary distrations and risks to the party, which will happen again if Kerry is nominated and Brown runs for the seat.  

            Constrast that with other recent Republican appointments like Tim Scott and Dean Heller and it sure looks like Republicans screw this up less than Democrats.  

            George LeMieux is the only recent GOP screw-up, but it would have gone off without a hitch if it weren't for Rubio.  

            •  Um. (6+ / 0-)

              Obama didn't "appoint" anyone from the Illinois Senate.  He just...got elected President.  I don't see how it's his fault that the Governor was an idiot, and I also don't think that was Alexi's problem.  (It probably didn't help, but Alexi had plenty of problems, and Kirk had plenty of strengths.)

              And Napolitano wasn't a Senator--I agree that Obama should have considered Brewer, but Napolitano was term-limited anyway, and that was likely a lost seat either way.  Just a matter of timing.

              I also don't think that George LeMieux was a "screw-up".  What exactly were the consequences of his appointment, for the Republicans or anyone else?  

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

              by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:53:11 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yes, to be precise (0+ / 0-)

                Obama didn't appoint from IL and Napolitano wasn't a Senator.  But they were vacancies that Democrats were faced with and, like the others, were disasters for the party, which is my overall point.  I'm not saying this is Obama's fault, except Brewer...it's a common theme with Democrats and how they manage to fumble every major vacancy while the GOP does not.

                I would view LeMieux as a screw-up for Crist because he wasn't exactly loyal to Crist throughout the whole affair, putting his own ambitions ahead of the person who appointed him.

                Maybe I'm the only one who thinks this way or is concerned.  I just find it hard to be optimistic about MA-Sen if Kerry is appointed and Brown runs unless Deval Patrick also runs.

                •  They weren't "disasters!" (6+ / 0-)

                  Or at least--if you think that the Delaware, New York, and Colorado Senate elections of 2010 were "disasters" for the Democratic party, then I think your standards might be a little high.  And yeah, Dems lost the IL Senate seat and the AZ Gov seat.  But it was 2010.  They lost lots of seats everywhere.  And I don't see why anyone but Crist should care if LeMieux was a screw-up for Crist--that probably wasn't Crist's biggest problem, and anyway, Republicans kept the seat.  

                  Yeah, Nikki Haley appointed Tim Scott very quickly.  Maybe a Democratic Governor would have taken more time, and journalists would have criticized them for it, and then so what?

                  27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                  by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 02:13:58 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  The irony is we actually lost nothing... (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, askew

                    ...that we wouldn't have lost anyway.

                    Yes we held those vacant Senate seats in CO, DE, and NY, and as improbable as it was, you can't complain when we did win them.  And of course Illinois was exclusively Blago's fault, and no one had any influence to change the scenario.  Arizona was a goner in that wave year, Terry Goddard was not going to win......as it was, he got the weakest Republican opponent he could've gotten, but it's just too conservative a state.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:58:43 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  As others wrote at the time (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, AUBoy2007, MichaelNY

            there's a pretty good logic to appointing a "caretaker" with strong ties to the previous incumbent who was actually elected, and you don't get closer than Kaufman and Joe Biden.  

            More to the point, so what?  What consequences did it have?  Had Mike Castle made it to the general election, I don't see how any of this would have mattered one way or the other.  (If Minner had appointed, I dunno, John Carney or Matt Dann to the seat--who's to say they would have run against Castle?  Neither one, apparently, wanted to run against Castle in the general election.)

            And in New York, ok, "the process dug on for so long and made Democrats, especially the governor, look ridiculous".  So what?  Pundits wrote some columns.  There were some blog posts.  What consequences did that have, for anyone besides--arguably--David Paterson?

            And who's to say that Ritter didn't have good reason to think that Bennet would make the capable politicianhe turned out to make?  

            An aside: Bennet lacked electoral experience, but he certainly didn't lack connections, as a former Editor-in-Chief of the Yale Law Journal, Clinton administration official, corporate honcho, and mayoral chief of staff, which is how he managed to raise piles of money, much of it from out of state, which doesn't always matter, but might have mattered in a close election.  And Ritter very likely knew that Bennet had that ability.

            None of these were, probably, optimal, especially to political junkies getting heartburn over uncertainty and process.  But I think we should keep considerations like that in perspective.  The big stories on CNN and Politico aren't always, ultimately, that important.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:47:34 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Maybe the appointment of Bennet (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, askew, DCCyclone

            was a good judgment based on knowledge we didn't have at the time. Any appointment would have carried some risk. I'm content with those results.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 03:55:32 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  True, BUT... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...bear in mind that Elizabeth Warren was a highly unconventional candidate.  And she was also a woman, which tends to be a bit of a problem in the Bay State.

        •  has there ever been any proof that this is true? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV, DCCyclone

          People seem to take it as CW at this point that Massachusetts is somehow one of the most sexist states.  I've seen zero evidence that being a woman is what causes people like Shannon O'Brien or Martha Coakley to lose.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 01:14:56 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  There has to be a reason (0+ / 0-)

            why Massachusetts had never before elected a woman for US Senate, nor (correct me if I'm wrong) for Governor. I can't think that's purely coincidental.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 03:59:06 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I can give you the Senate reason (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              R30A

              Prior to 1980, no states did, and since 1980 it's been almost entirely Kennedy and Kerry!  Since then, they've had three senators elected to full terms.  One was a woman. That's a higher percentage than most states.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 04:19:47 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  here are the list of states (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, R30A

              which have never had either:

              Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia.

              This is about as arbitrary as picking 14 states out of a hat.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 05:12:35 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Sure it can be coincidental (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, jncca

              The history of women in high office is a recent one, many states didn't elect women to much of anything for most of U.S. history.

              And there still aren't nearly as many female candidates as male candidates.  What choices were there beyond O'Brien, Coakley, and Warren for Gov or Sen?  The fact that some women did get elected to things like A.G. blows up the "sexist" argument already, and the sample size of female candidates in those top offices is very small.

              My home state of Iowa still has never elected a woman to federal office or Governor, and I write it off as a fluke, not as sexism.  There just aren't many candidates, there aren't many women who try.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 09:02:48 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Don't you think that the fact that there are still (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                askew

                so many fewer women in high offices in the US, compared to places like the Scandinavian countries, reflects the relative position of women in the societies in question? I do. So while I take everyone's points about the relative sexism of different states, I think the larger point is pretty clear.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 09:15:11 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  there's sexism in America (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                  but it's not more prominent in Massachusetts than in other states, which has somehow become the DKE CW.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                  by jncca on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 09:18:21 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  See jncca's point below, and moreover... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  ...getting to your more immediate question, yes absolutely there is sexism in society that affects the number of women elected to office.

                  But that sexism manifests itself at the lower level, with fewer women advancing in professional careers and in turn becoming part of the candidate pool.

                  There's no sexism by voters where the sexism decides an election once voters have to choose between a woman and a man actually on the ballot for high office.

                  It's just like underrepsentation of blacks and Hispanics at top colleges.  They are underrepresented not because there is discrimination in admissions, but because there is continuing stubborn economic and academic disadvantage in primary and secondary education that reduces the pool of total and qualified applicants at the top.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 09:32:40 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  Incumbents don't usually lose by (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden, bumiputera, MichaelNY

        massive margins unless it's in a wave year and/or they are plagued by scandal. Even in a blowout year like 1980, the margins weren't particularly big.

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:05:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  On the flipside whoever is appoinited.... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden, MichaelNY

        ...will have time to raise their profile and build up their reputation and political heft.  You mentined Bennet and perhaps he might be a great example.  He might not have been the best  person to appoint at the moment in time he was appointed.  But that changed as time progressed and he and the public became acclimated to him as Senator.  By the Democratic Primary he was stronger than any of the "stronger" candidates who were passed over for the seat.  And by election day he won a full term in his own right in a very difficult year for Democrats.

        Which is why I think one of the dumbest ideas is to appoint a placeholder like Mike Dukakis.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:07:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Atty. Gen. Coakley... (5+ / 0-)

      Has said she is running for reelection, not for Senate. Story here.

      Markey admitted his interest in the Senate seat following an event in Malden Monday, also attended by Attorney General Martha Coakley, who said she was focused on reelection, not making another run at the Senate, a race she lost to Brown in 2010.

      "I'm very interested in being attorney general and running for reelection for attorney general," she said.

      It's not exactly Shermanesque, but she doesn't sound interested in getting demolished by Sen. Scott Brown again.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 11:44:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Can't we also wait until there's an official (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, JBraden

      announcement that Kerry is being nominated?

      Just saying...

      "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

      by bjssp on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 11:58:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Big shock Brown destroys the cap bag of (0+ / 0-)

      lame candidates whose names have been trotted out for two years.

      Obama is studying up to take the test to get to the moron level, and those who ignore history are bound to repeat it.

      We need an appealing outsider to beat Brown, and pretending he isn't the solid favorite against one of the random congresscritters or lower state officehoders is simply delusional at this point.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:28:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  fwiw, an Emerson College poll has Patrick leading (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, MichaelNY, askew, abgin

    Brown.

    link

    The bigger issue for Brown is Patrick running in 2014. When all is said and done, Brown could definitely win a 2013 special, but it will be closer than it is now, and then in a year and half he would have to turn around and win election to the full term.

    And while 2014 might have a better electorate for Republicans than 2012, MA Dems still did very well in 2010, in a horrible national political climate.

  •  question about Vermont (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    for most of the 20th century were catholics the only people in the state who voted for democrats in non trivial numbers? If I recall, Burlington was an old mill town that often attracted working class catholics. Chittenden voted for Kennedy in 1960 and Smith in 1928. The first (and only) democrat  elected to the senate from Vermont, Patrick Leahy, is half Irish and half Italian.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:49:43 AM PST

  •  Obama approve/disapprove now 56-37 on Gallup (4+ / 0-)

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 10:13:06 AM PST

  •  We want Indiana scenario (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, JGibson

    Teabaggers knock off McConnell with deranged wingnut candidate; Dems maybe win general. Getting to watch Sen. Ashley Judd on TV for six years a possible bonus prize.

  •  The biggest question for Kentucky Dems (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Theodore J Pickle

    what are you going to attack McConnell on?  The "number one goal is to make Obama a one-term President" thing is pretty damning but it's water under the bridge now.  Sure McConnell is unlikable and unattractive, which is why he's only leading by four points, but that's probably not enough to make him lose.  I don't think we can attack him for being an obstructionist since Kentuckians don't really want the Democratic/Obama agenda to be passed.

    •  Fillibustering one of his own bills (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

      Any U.S. Senator who is stupid enough to do that should be voted out of office!

      Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 10:49:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  just the usual (3+ / 0-)

      Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, education, tax cuts for rich people. KY is red mostly on cultural issues and coal, not on the usual bread and butter issues.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 11:05:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I dunno. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Taget, jncca, ramesh, MichaelNY

        KY has had a mostly Republican delegation since 1995.  Mitch has been in the Senate since 1985.  Are any of them particularly moderate on "Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, education, tax cuts for rich people"?  I suppose it's possible, but I'd have to be convinced.

        Has "the usual" worked for federal Democrats much?

        The state has a strong Democratic tradition and a strong state Democratic party, but they seem to be just fine with voting for Congressional Republicans, and for Congressional Republican policies.  (Hell--some of Mitch's lousy numbers are probably from people who think he isn't obstructionist enough.)  We might think that Republican policies are so obviously bad that they're, naturally, killer campaign issues.  But Republicans like them, and federally, Kentucky is a Republican state, whatever people register as or call themselves.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:02:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  One of the reasons for such a GOP delegation (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          was a Democratic "dummymander" in 1992 after Kentucky lost a seat in Congress. Rather than draw two strongly Republican seats and try to win the other four, Democrats tried to spread the the GOP "old 5th" District out, rather than encourage the late Rep. William Natcher (D-Bowling Green) to retire and chop up District 2, which would make the most sense. The heavily Republican counties in southern KY should have been consolidated into one seat, and then connect the Cincy and Louisville suburbs. Natcher died in 1994 and Dems lost that seat in a special election, then lost District 1 in 1994, and failed to win Districts 4 or 5 in 1992.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:10:01 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  doesn't mean they'd win (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I don't know what else they have to run on, though. They can't just agree with McConnell on everything.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:30:26 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Sure. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, MichaelNY

            They'd probably run on the usual Democratic themes--I was just objecting to the claim that Kentucky voters are (in the aggregate) anything other than economically conservative in their federal voting.  I suppose it's possible, but again, I'd have to be convinced.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:55:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  He was almost defeated in 2008 (5+ / 0-)

      by someone that most Kentuckians thought was a crook. He has also never been as popular as people give him credit for in Kentucky. Dems basically took a pass on him in 2002, but he has had two relatively close reelections in 1990 and 2008. He has always used a giant money advantage and some of the most negative ads you have ever seen in your life to destroy his opponents. In 1990, he accused Louisville Mayor Harvey Sloane of being a prescription drug addict. In 1996, he said that Steve Beshear would "Beshear" people on taxes. In 2008, he more or less accused Bruce Lunsford of killing veterans in his nursing homes. He started running ads in for his last reelection over a year before the election, and his platform was how much pork he could bring home.

      And Mitch just isn't that likeable, among other things.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 11:59:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  But on the other hand... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        It's going to be an off year election when Dem turnout is usually worse than normal, Obama lost Kentucky by worse than he did in 2008, all but one of Kentucky's reps is now Republican and McConnell has tons of money and will do what needs to be done to win.

        Also, I'm not sure the polls right now (taken at the height of the fiscal cliff, when Republican ratings are really in the toilet even with Republicans) are at all reflective of what things will look like in 2014.

        Sorry, once again, I say I just don't see McConnell as vulnerable right now.

    •  Attack him for the decline in KY coal production (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 01:19:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ashley Judd can't do that (0+ / 0-)

        and right now, I'm increasingly resigned to the fact that she'll end up as our best candidate by default.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 02:02:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oy, if so (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          She's going down, down, down.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 04:05:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yup, but one must admit shock... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf, MichaelNY, JGibson

            ...that polling up front shows 47-43.

            I would've figured Judd right away would spark anti-Hollywood resentment.

            But after some thought today, I think the explanation for the close polling must simply be that no one in Kentucky is aware of Judd's politics.  They don't disdain the "D" alone because state Dems remain reasonably well-liked, and they don't know anything else about her beyond that she's celebrity Ashley Judd who everyone likes as a movie star.

            I don't doubt she'd lose by the same margin as Obama after a brutal campaign.

            But then, does it matter?  If she doesn't hurt anyone else on the ballot, and I'm guessing she probably wouldn't,
            the only other risk is if McConnell is teabagged to death and we have too liberal a nominee to be able to take advantage of the opportunity.  But as much as I've been wrong in saying this before, I really doubt McConnell can be teabagged, simply because he's prepared to go nuclear on Day One against all comers in either party.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:43:52 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Color me skeptical (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Imagine this scenario:
              Democrats dominate Maryland at the federal level thanks to its large minority and population.  This is true in reality of course and let's pretend it's the same here.

              The difference though, is that Republicans are able to consistently win at the statewide executive (gov, ag, etc) level thanks to running very moderate nominees who, differently from the federal party, push policies that benefit blacks in particular and/or are black themselves.  This allows them to rout the Democrats in federally dark blue Prince Georges County and Baltimore even though their federal candidates get destroyed.

              Finally, Barbara Mikulski is detested by the electorate because, well, some hill staffers think she's a big meanie!  Thus, she's vulnerable and in response to Gallup showing atrocious numbers for her, her front pager campaign manager calls them a "rethug" polling outfit then proceeds to produce identical numbers to the laughter of Fox News.  However, instead of running a legit version of Michael Steele when they have several comparable statewide office holders, Maryland Republicans nominate a candidate who is a celebrity among elements of their national party base thanks to his outspoken conservative views, but is considered not moderate enough for Maryland.  The candidate they end up with? Ted Nugent. (I almost went with David Duke* but Nugent was just perfect).

              Now at this point you might have guessed that instead of black voters (this is Kentucky after all) I'm referring to coal.  Just take a look at any of the 2007 or 2011 statewide races.  Even when the Democrats get destroyed as we did for Agriculture Commissioner or romp like Beshear did, the best region of the state at the county level is pretty much always the two large coal areas.  Then look at the federal level and you see Obama does quite well in the urban and particularly suburban parts of the state, but then his worst region is coal territory.

              So, Democrats running Ashley Judd in Kentucky (or Barack Obama for that matter) is like Republicans passing over Michael Steele for Ted Nugent or David Duke in Maryland.  Yes I know that Steele didn't carry blacks or even come remotely close, but you get the idea.

              In short, this is all to say that I really don't see how Judd won't hurt downticket even if it's just a few points off the margin, given how opposed she is to the interest group politics of a key Democratic constituency in the state.  That's why she's only above a some dude, but below "unopposed" in my book.

              *Getting back to David Duke, his gubernatorial race vs. Edwin Edwards is almost what I'm thinking of when you allude to McConnell getting teabagged and us botching the opportunity: both candidates were inferior in the eyes of the electorate to any generic D or R, but since one of those inferior two nominees was more out of sync with the state than the other, he (Duke) lost.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

              by sawolf on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 09:09:30 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah, it is indeed shocking (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone

              And I think your analysis is a good one. But here's what there is to lose: There is some chance of a strong Democratic candidate defeating McConnell (or, stranger things have happened, a Republican who teabagged him), but there is virtually no chance of Judd actually winning, is there?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 09:16:49 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  The part I disagree with... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sawolf, MichaelNY

                ...is that any Democrat can defeat McConnell.

                I buy it that McConnell can and will vaporize his Democratic foe, no matter who it is.

                What if Steve Beshear ran?  That would be hardest for Mitch, but there have been no rumblings at all that Beshear is thinking about it at all.

                I'm now looking at McConnell as the 2014 Harry Reid, he seems to be modeling his campaign after his counterpart.  I think that will work.

                If Mitch gets teabagged, then yes, we'll have blown it with Judd.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 09:26:15 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Your last point I can't disagree with (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  but the thing with Reid at least is that he was vulnerable.  Brian Sandoval or Dean Heller would have performed far better than even Sue Lowden pre-chickengate.  The same thing applies for how McConnell is running his campaign, as you've pointed out, but it can't be said enough that Reid ensured top tier Republicans stayed out and not because they would have lost.  This is clearly part of McConnell's strategy too and in a universe where we can't actually see how well Beshear would have done it makes McConnell look invincible, but I bet a lot here would be surprised at how well Beshear might do or how well Sandoval or Heller would have done against Reid compared to Angle.

                  The thing is we literally just don't know this far out how much stronger Beshear is than someone like Conway and it could be that he's our one shot at winning, but afterwards we can't know that since we nominated someone else and we end up talking about how incredible of a campaign McConnell ran without knowing what the true limit of Dem strength against him was.  I think this same principle goes for Reid, though certainly he's from a state that's much less favorable federally to his party than McConnell's so the dynamics aren't quite the same, but the principle still applies.

                  Now that being said, I still think McConnell would be more likely than not to beat Beshear, but that's simply due to Kentucky being Kentucky rather than McConnell's Death Star being quite operational when our friends arrive campaign going nuclear on him, which is the distinction I'm trying to make (not just for you of course but for everyone).  McConnell is quite vulnerable and there isn't a lot he can do to avoid the taint of minority leader in an unpopular congress short of resigning.

                  NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

                  by sawolf on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 09:35:15 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  We'll agree to disagree (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  sawolf

                  I do think that, depending on a number of unknown variables, an upset of McConnell is possible - definitely not likely, but possible - with a very strong Democratic opponent. I'd rate the chances of that at no more than 15-20% at most, though.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 09:36:51 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          When McConnell releases his own poll showing him up just 47-43 against a second tier candidate like Judd, you'd think that at least one of the first tier candidates would take another look at this. The Dems might have only a 10-20% chance to win this, but for some of them that's probably better than the chance they have to be the next governor of KY. Also, losing to McConnell in this cycle won't kill their chances of becoming governor down the road. Beshear lost to him in 1996.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 04:37:17 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  followup (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            The Dem bench in KY is almost ridiculously deep. Even leaving Beshear out, they have 5 other statewide elected officials:

            LG Jerry Abramson, 66
            AG Jack Conway, 43
            SOS Alison Lundergan Grimes, 34
            treasurer Todd Hollenbach, 49
            auditor Adam Edelen, 38

            They also have:

            house speaker and former AG Greg Stumbo, 61
            former senate candidate and LG Dan Mongiardo, 52
            former US rep and AG Ben Chandler, 53
            former auditor Crit Luallen, 60

            I know some of these have ruled out a senate run, but they can't all be the next governor. I'd think that at least the last 3 have plenty of time on their hands now.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 04:59:21 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Actually I think your last sentence is wrong (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf, MichaelNY

            Team McConnell has been promising practically openly that they will destroy forever the public image of any opponent.  That might sound hyperbolic, but Mitch is a ruthless pol no less than Harry Reid, and his team are borrowing Harry Reid's playbook with a plan to vaporize any and all comers.  And they have the money to do it.

            What I've read says that a lot of rising star Democrats in Kentucky are aware of this and sufficiently scared that McConnell really can destroy them forever.

            So that's why someone like Ashley Judd could very well end up the nominee, if she wants it.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:52:40 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  HI-Sen Debacle: (4+ / 0-)

    http://www.politico.com/...

    Normally I wouldn't post a link to an article from Tiger Beat on the Potomac, but they're making sense here.

    Here's what I think should happen: Abercrombie should appoint Hirono--not Hanabusa--to Inouye's seat immediately (hear me out!).  That way Harry Reid will have the vote for the fiscal curb, and on January 3 Hirono can resign Inouye's seat to take the seat she won in November, allowing Abercrombie to appoint Hanabusa.

    To me, that seems like a win-win: Hirono will unquestionably be Hawaii's senior senator (and also jump the line in the 2012 freshman class), Harry Reid will have a 53-member caucus, and Sen. Inouye's last wish will be granted (albeit slightly delayed).

    •  This is the best possible idea (4+ / 0-)

      But I doubt it will happen.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 10:42:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I really love how people are talking about (12+ / 0-)

      Neil Abercrombie appointing Mufi Hannemann to the United States Senate as something that could ever happen.  How exactly would that phone call go?  "Mufi!  I hate you, and you lost two Democratic primaries in a row by landslides.  Congratulations.  You're the next Senator from Hawai'i."

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 10:45:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I've already said this before (0+ / 0-)

      If Abercrombie goes against Inouye's last wish (including a stunt like this), he will have cursed the Hawaii Democratic Party for 50 years if not longer than that.

      Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 10:58:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't give one crap what his last wish was (0+ / 0-)

        This is a democracy, not a kingdom or oligarchy.

        Abercrombie should appoint exactly who he wants, and no one else.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:32:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  You might not give a crap about what Inouye thinks (6+ / 0-)

          but the people in Hawaii do. And that's what matters in the end.

          22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

          by kurykh on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:46:14 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  No it isn't, and it isn't even remotely true (0+ / 0-)

            Absurd assertion.  The people of Hawaii care about having the sort of Senator they want.

            Sorry, the idea that "I don't care about the quality of my Senator, I only care that Tammany Hall tells the Gov what to do" is on the tip of everybody's tongues is fiction.

            Sure, it is one thing to consider, but that is all.  The idea that the Governor should base an action that will have repeurcussions potentially for decades based solely on what a dying man said is extremely offensive at best.

            The Gov should appoint a person that in his judgment is best for the state, period.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 01:46:27 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Let's be real (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, DCCyclone, bfen, HoosierD42

              Sure, Abercrombie can theoretically appoint whomever he pleases, since he's the governor. But democracy doesn't operate in an environment devoid of concepts like respect, power, and reality.

              People in Hawaii respect Inouye way more than they respect Abercrombie, and Abercrombie will not survive by disrespecting Inouye, even in death. That's just how it works. "Should" doesn't mean jack shit in politics; politics, after all, is the art of the possible. How is it extremely offensive that we're basing our assumptions off the cold, hard facts on the ground?

              22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

              by kurykh on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 06:28:29 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Also (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                kurykh, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

                It could very well be that the State Democratic Party forces his hand to Hanabusa by giving him two other unacceptable names along with hers for the appointment. Take, for example, Case and Hannemann.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 07:03:54 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Nonsense (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sawolf, MichaelNY

                The post was; "If Abercrombie goes against Inouye's last wish (including a stunt like this), he will have cursed the Hawaii Democratic Party for 50 years if not longer than that."

                If that isn't offensive to you, more the pity.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 09:27:13 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Not Appointing Hanabusa is Not "Disrespectful" (0+ / 0-)

                As a Hawaii Democrat deeply involved in this matter, I dispute this characterization of Hawaii's people as inflexible Confucian serfs who would resent Abercrombie if he does not appoint Colleen Hanabusa. A lot of people see the drafting and leak of the Inouye letter as a manipulative trick by bankster Walter Dods and others in the Inouye camp who are seeking a new political office from which to wield influence. These are the people who have nurtured both Hanabusa and Mufi Hannemann as means to perpetuate their influence as Senator Inouye was aging.

                Abercrombie has to be careful in HOW he explains his choice. But our people are not as feudal in their thinking as Dods and others would have outsiders believe.

                Having said that, Colleen Hanabusa merits serious consideration by the SCC and the Governor. She is well-qualified for the position. But so is Lt Gov Brian Schatz, who has the added advantage of being 40 years old, while Hanabusa is 61. Having lost all our acquired seniority with the retirement of Akaka, the death of Inouye, the elevation of Hirono and the election of newcomer Tulsi Gabbard, that factor is high among our criteria for evaluating potential senators.

                In addition, Hanabusa's selection would create the strong possibility for a Lingle comeback through a "winner take all" special election. Either Lingle or Charles Djou would be well-positioned to win if the Dems split the vote, as we inevitably would.

                Despite people's well-intended attempts to understand Hawaii's unique political culture from outside, our people are capable of understanding arguments for another appointment, if well-articulated. Despite the stereotypes about "Asian" voters, even THEY are smart enough.

                "... if I can lead you into the promised land someone else can just as easily lead you back out again." --Eugene Debs

                by Shliapnikov on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 01:10:15 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  And the people of Hawaii love Daniel Inouye (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              They will ratify the choice, in Inouye's honor, out of respect for what Inouye had done for Hawaii in Congress for the past 50 years.

              I hope; therefore, I can live.

              by tietack on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:36:35 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  No, they will ratify the choice if they choose to (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sawolf

                For whatever reasons they choose.

                This Tammany Hall machine stuff doesn't mean shit to real people.

                She's a good choice and will be appointed because the Gov thinks she is a good choice, and reelected for the same reason, not because a prior officeholder has hypnotized or cowed people.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 09:29:45 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Hair-splitting (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Of course Hanabusa's merits and position give her a leg up over everyone else, but to say that Inouye didn't groom her and pull all the strings for her to get into the Senate is ridiculous in itself.

                  22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

                  by kurykh on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:37:29 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  Hirono is 65 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, DCCyclone

      We really do need to stop acting like she's going to get somewhere fast with seniority over a whopping 12 other people (max), most of whom are also Democrats.  

      The seniority just isn't going to be all that relevant to either one unless they plan on living to be 110 years old.  The current top 10 in the Senate by Seniority all have 27+ years of service in the Senate, and none is older than 81.  To get to 27 years of senate service, Hirono would have to serve until she's 92, Hanabusa until she's 88.  And that's just to get into the top 10 in Seniority.

      Quite simply, if Hawaii wants seniority, they would need to pick someone in their 40's.  The seniority they had is pretty much gone no matter what, so it really shouldn't play into any calculation.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 10:59:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  This assumes there will be some (0+ / 0-)

      fiscal cliff deal to vote on pre-Jan 3. I promised yesterday, I wouldnt discuss fiscal cliff here, so I'll just leave it at that.
       :)

      That's a good plan though.

      Although does being senior senator really matter? Especially if it's just by a few days.

    •  Why does Hirono deserve higher seniority than (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Paleo, askew

      Hanabusa?

      Just appoint Hanabusa now. Hawaii would be better off for it. I am sure the rest of the senate would not think highly of a ridiculously unneeded amount of appointments and so on.

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 11:14:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Those House special election candidates... (0+ / 0-)

      Are depressing. I guess Waihee would be okay, but he's so rusty; there's a reason his name was mooted as a potential caretaker appointee before it surfaced that then-Sen. Inouye told Gov. Abercrombie that he wanted Rep. Hanabusa to succeed him.

      What little I know of Stanley Chang I like, but I am concerned that he would struggle to break out of a contested field.

      No mention of Brickwood Galuteria or Suzanne Chun Oakland. Hopefully that doesn't mean neither is interested. Galuteria, as Senate majority leader and former party chairman, would probably have enough influence to scare out other Democrats (except for Case, the honey badger of Hawaii Democratic politics, and maybe Hannemann, with whom Case could split the DINO vote).

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 11:54:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I wouldn't assume Politico knows much about (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, askew, tietack, Shliapnikov

        the potential House candidates.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 02:38:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Stanley Chang is an Empty, Ambitious, Suit (0+ / 0-)

        Outside of ambition and a permanent smile, "there is no there, there."

        Having said that, he may have a political future because Chinese investment is moving into Hawaii big time. It may be as powerful a presence as Japanese investment was in the 19070s and 80s. Stanley is close to his Chinese heritage, speaks Chinese (I believe), has been a convenient liaison for the City with Chinese government and corporate interests and has cultivated that role.

        "... if I can lead you into the promised land someone else can just as easily lead you back out again." --Eugene Debs

        by Shliapnikov on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:48:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Give me a break (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      So what if Hanabusa has seniority.  In practical terms, it means very little.  This is all about ego.

      Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

      by Paleo on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:11:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  That proposal, while logically sound (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, R30A, itskevin

      Is too convoluted to ever happen.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 02:14:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Re: Delaware County election results (0+ / 0-)

    Where do I sign up to contribute a few bucks? Consider it a Christmas present.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 11:46:57 AM PST

  •  New Columbia (8+ / 0-)

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    On Wednesday, retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), and Sens. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), introduced the bill, which would allow D.C. voters to "endorse" statehood.

    As first reported by Buzzfeed, the 51st state would be called New Columbia, and would be granted full voting representation in the Senate and in the House of Representatives. The National Mall, the Capitol, federal monuments, and certain other parts of the District occupied by government buildings would not become part of this new state, but would remain under federal control. This federal area -- still called the District of Columbia -- would remain the nation's capital.

    Assuming that this somehow came to fruition, who would be some candidates that could become DC's first Senators? I assume there would be a high risk of a Senator Marion Barry.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 11:56:53 AM PST

    •  It looks like a symbolic gesture to me (0+ / 0-)

      I doubt it even comes to a vote.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:00:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It can't come to a vote because... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...this Congress is almost over, and of course this is not what they are focused on right now!

        An introduced bill dies at the end of a Congress if it hasn't already become law.

        So this would have to happen all over again in the next Congress.

        So yes it really is only symbolic.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:27:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Possible DC Senators would be (6+ / 0-)

      Eleanor Holmes Norton, Anthony Williams, Adrian Fenty (some buyers' remorse over ousting him as mayor in recent polling), Jack Evans, Jim Graham, and Phil Mendelsohn.  That's just throwing out a few names that I thought of; surely there would be more possibilities, including some who don't hold elected office.

      I don't think Marion Barry is electable citywide at this point, and his sometimes shaky health raises the question of how fit he'd be for a citywide campaign, in contrast to his current single-ward council seat in which he can coast.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:21:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  DC should keep the name DC (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701

      It's a moot point since there's no way in hell statehood is attaining passage anytime soon (if ever)... but I'm not a fan of the "New Columbia" name. There's already an "NC" and the place has been known around the world as "DC." Just keep the name "District of Columbia" -- the fact that "state" isn't in the name is meaningless. (Four states are called "Commonwealth.") And if you keep a rump federal zone, just call that "the Federal District" or "Federal Zone" or something.

    •  Well (0+ / 0-)

      I think that Eleanor Holmes Norton would stay in the House, but obviously this time as a voting member.

      I wouldn't necessarily think that the Senators would be African American. After all, multiple of the at-large city councilpeople are white.

      The problem with D.C., as I see it, is that the system of government really does not allow for a diverse set of options. You literally only have the mayor and the city council.

      What I'd like to see if D.C. gets statehood is for governmental reform to happen in the city such that the city council is expanded to 15-20 members and that they all represent districts as opposed to some city-wide members and rebranded as a "legislature" along with the mayor's office rebranded as Governor. Perhaps even with a Lieutenant Governor involved, with elected SoS and other statewide offices (such as Superintendent of Schools) being elected positions as well.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:31:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also (0+ / 0-)

        I'd like to see Fenty run.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:32:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Forget about that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Fenty burned his bridges.  On policymaking he was OK, but in attitude and temperament he was seriously disliked.  He really had a political tin ear, not aware at all of voter sensitivities.

          Gray is awful, and an "outsider" a la Fenty isn't a bad thing, but Fenty is the wrong choice while someone like Anthony Williams would fit the bill.  Williams was an excellent Mayor, just a competent administrator who got along with everyone and was realistic about what could be accomplished in a Mayor's term.  Of course I can't see why Williams would want to come back to do this, he's moved on in life.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:36:21 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  If DC got statehood (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think EHN would run for Senate. She's been the sole federal representative of the City for so long, I think she'd deserve it.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 02:20:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Heavy reprogramming would be a given... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...if D.C. got statehood.  It's not clear to me they would retain a "local" government at all.  This kind of stuff is never discussed at any serious level locally in D.C., but I would guess they would, indeed, replace the "city council" with a much larger "state legislature," and the "Mayor" would be a "Governor."

        The question is whether the new state would provide for any political subdivisions beyond the current wards and precincts.  I bet not, given the small land mass.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:33:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  NJ Gov: Sweeney won't announce decision until (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:06:33 PM PST

  •  Re: KY politics and income. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, CF of Aus

    I was thinking about this above, so I made a scatterplot of median household income (at the county level) vs. a Democratic Senate average consisting of Conway's vote share and Lunsford's.  The pattern is pretty interesting:

    (That's Oldham County off to the side].)

    Basically, there's generally a negative correlation, with the Democrat doing worse in high-income counties...except in some low-income counties, where there's the reverse correlation!  Looking at a county map, the pattern seems to be that these are more counties on or near the Southern border than "Appalachian" counties per se.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:31:58 PM PST

    •  KY (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, Zack from the SFV

      KY's Appalachian area is split between the coal and non-coal counties. Originally all of it was GOP as it had very few slaves pre-1860 and strongly supported the north in the civil war. The eastern part of TN to the south showed the same pattern. After the coal industry got going, the coal counties became mostly unionized and strongly Dem.  

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 01:01:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ummm...I'm missing something here, David (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, ramesh

    Kerry is a member of the Class 2 senate cycle. Class 2 is up for re-election in 2014. If Kerry's potential replacemeent ran in 2013 and won, he/she facing re-election in 2014 for a full term lasting until January 2021. 2016 won't come into the equation for said replacement will it? Or am I missing something?

    2020 is a presidential election year though, so Kerry's replacement would have to contend with that

  •  MA-Sen: David Simas, Ted Kennedy Jr. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    So, it's the Boston Herald, but it names a couple other Democrats (one of them much less known) who are thinking about running if there is a special election:

    Top national Democrats are escalating their push to get the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s son into a special U.S. Senate election as a top political strategist for President Obama is also considering jumping into the race, the Herald has learned.

    David Simas, a 42-year-old Taunton native who served as director of opinion research for President Obama’s re-election campaign, has been talking to a top Bay State strategist about running in a special election to replace U.S. Sen. John Kerry if he’s picked by Obama for Secretary of State.

    Simas’ name comes as national Democrats ramped up their bid today to get Edward M. Kennedy Jr. to run in an effort to bring a big name into the race. The Herald’s Truth Squad first reported on Monday that the 51-year-old was considering running after several insiders urged him to get in.

    Simas wowed local politicos after he spoke at a Bay State breakfast at the Democratic Convention in Charlotte this summer. Simas, who once worked for Gov. Deval Patrick, might be able to lean on Patrick’s well-oiled political machine if he decides to run.

    Link.
  •  you'll still have Art Robinson to kick (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

    around for a while.  He's running for chair of the state Republican Party.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 02:24:10 PM PST

  •  Stephen Lynch telling allies he will run for (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Senate if Kerry becomes SOS.

    link.

    Not sure how the conservative views would play in a primary. Seems like his best chance would be a big primary field creating a clown car effect, where he wins with like 20% or something.

    •  Yeah, he can't win the nomination... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      Unless it gets pretty messy -- which is why I hope Gov. Patrick appoints a strong Democrat who will be more than just a placeholder, but can run for election with the full backing of the state's major Democrats.

      If Reps. Capuano, Markey, and Lynch all enter, I still think Lynch finishes last in the primary. But if it's Capuano, Markey, and Lynch plus a statewide elected or two (Treasurer Grossman, etc.), it gets hairy. Even someone like Alan Khazei could make it a headache, though I'm less worried about Khazei than I would be about, oh, say, Lt. Gov. Murray.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 02:57:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Very moving picture of Bob Dole (9+ / 0-)

    honoring Daniel Inouye in the Capitol Rotunda today.

    From Tom Williams of Roll Call.

  •  Speaker Boehner forced to pull "Plan B"... (10+ / 0-)

    After admitting he lacks the votes to pass it.

    At this point, I do think Boehner is reasonably likely to face a leadership challenge. We've heard Rep. Tom Price mentioned as a potential candidate for Speaker. Any others we can think of? Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers comes to mind as someone who has been elevating her profile and rising through the ranks lately.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 05:08:34 PM PST

    •  While it's not guaranteed... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ....it seems highly likely.  At lease he didn't make them get votes on the record for it.  That might save him... barely.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 05:30:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  CMR (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Seems like an interesting possibility, but I doubt she could get the votes to defeat Boehner AND she's a Boehner ally anyway.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 05:31:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  She also represents the same district as (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        former Democratic Speaker Tom Foley (1989-1995).  I wonder if any other district has elected two speakers, let alone two speakers from different parties.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 05:44:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  As in it won't get any vote at all? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 05:51:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yep, saw on TPM that he gave up. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        By the words of his statement, he'll just be lazy and let the Senate vote on an earlier bill to extend all the tax cuts and restore the defense cuts (not gonna succeed of course).  I guess Boehner is going to let us go over that cliff.  As Krugman said, Obama should just keep his last offer to Boehner available, but go no further.  And that going over the cliff is less bad than compromising further.  I tend to agree.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 06:03:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Everyone says this but... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, itskevin

      ...who else would really want this job?  Who wants to try to manage these people for two years?

      Obama is not going to play ball the same way as last time.  He's pissed.  And now he's coming off a big win, not a disastrous midterm loss.  A lot of liberals were always too dismissive of how important that was, the effect of the election.  Don't be dismissive of it now, either.

      So all this means any Speaker is going to be caught in a vice the next 2 years.  And I have to think the kinds of Members capable of doing the job are also savvy enough to see the pitfalls.

      I think Boehner ends up as the Speaker again.  Any "compromise" candidate is not going to relish being Speaker under the circumstances they would inherit.

      If I'm wrong and Boehner is replaced, I think it would be Cantor.  The crazies so far have liked and trusted him, they've perceived him as one of their own, even though he takes Boehner's side on key votes.  And Cantor already is number 2, so he's the natural successor.  But like I said above, Cantor probably knows his job won't be any easier than Boehner's was.  He has to cut deals with POTUS or else his party's public image takes only a deeper dive heading into the midterm.  And cutting deals with POTUS will make his caucus unhappy.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:23:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I believe Cantor really prefers (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, DCCyclone

        to look like the ideologically purer guy. If he became Speaker, he'd either compromise his tactical position vis a vis the out-of-touch-with-reality right wing or go down with the ship when they get drubbed in the 2014 midterms. Which is more or less what you said, but put more dramatically. I don't think the American people will appreciate obstructionism this time, though as I believe Menken said, you'll never get rich betting on the intelligence of the American people.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:29:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  But do you think this latest failure (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        reflects badly on Boehner and hurts GOP messaging if we descend the fiscal slope?

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 10:53:03 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  SC-01: Mark Sanford reportedly will run (9+ / 0-)

    Let the hilarity commence! Story here.

    “He’s looking all but certain to do it,” said a former top aide to Sanford, who did not want to be identified while prematurely revealing the plans.

    A formal announcement will come soon, the source said.

    I wonder if a Mark Sanford nomination might actually put this seat into play. But really, I expect he'll get clobbered in the primary.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 05:10:18 PM PST

  •  Does anyone know where I can find (0+ / 0-)

    county level results for Massachusetts' statewide races? (2006 AG, 2010 AG, SoS, Tres, and Auditor)

    I looked at the Secretary of State's site, but their "return of vote" only has the statewide totals.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 05:32:24 PM PST

    •  County level results are pretty meaningless (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      as for town results, those are really hard to find. Maybe ask BostonPatriot over at RRH? I think he might know.

      Treasurer and Auditor were the only competitive races in 2010, btw. the other two were blowouts and about as useless baseline-measuring-wise as the presidential race.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 07:39:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA10 pres by cd (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I calculated PA10 using incomplete county data for two counties.  in one case[monroe] a difference of about 10 votes, for northumberland around 1600

    daily kos pres by cd working page for the other counties

                                   obama   romney  total
    bradford                 8624      14410       23425
    juniata                   2547     6862         9535
    ;lackawanna pt     16228     14331     30930
    lycomning              15203     30658     46493
    mifflin                      4273     11939      16371
    monroe pt             12911       9171      22377
    northumberland pt  3558       6531      10316
    perry pt                   2992       7111      10278
    pike                       10210     12786        23279
    snyder                     4687     10073      15002
    sullivan                    1034       1868           2949
    sussuehanna          6935      10800         18044
    tioga pt                   5081      10650      16016
    union                      6109         9896      16268
    wayne                    8396       12896      21607
                           108788     169982   282890
                                38.46%      60.01       

  •  AR-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Bill Halter anyone?

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 05:42:09 PM PST

  •  KY-Redistricting (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, jncca

    The part of the news feed today is not correct regarding the redistricting of the Kentucky Legislature.

    There will be no compromise in maps. Dems in the House will approve a map for the House, the GOP will approve one for the Senate. It is that simple. The only question is whether they pass scrutiny of the courts, which is why they may do this early in 2013 to have a do-over rather than a court imposed map. The real issue was county splitting and population deviation. One Senate and one House seat were just a hair over +5% over the median, and that, along with the House plan splitting too many counties, was why the Franklin Circuit Court Judge overturned the adopted maps, and the Supreme Court affirmed.

    Though, the elections will effect the new maps. Democrats will no longer have to protect the seats they lost, and may consolidate some of them. Republicans also combined two GOP incumbents in Southern Kentucky and drew a new Bullitt/Nelson seat. That plan would now pair two new GOP Senators. They also planned to screw over four Dem State Senators in odd numbered seats. They have been elected, and odd seats are up in 2014, so all bets are off.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:03:00 PM PST

  •  Am I seeing more bating by DKE/SSPers lately (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, sawolf, bfen, wwmiv

    or perhaps I'm just a bit tired, ready for the holiday.

    I've seen several malicious allusions and insults to long time SSP members -- from other SSP members over the past 2-3 days. If I weren't so busy in my new job, I probably would have joined in, and I'm sorry for that.

    From one point of view, some, perhaps all of them deserve it. Some users have had long standing "themes" that may have "asked" for it.

    But for lord's sake (in an Eloise fashion), it is the Holiday season, a season for tolerance, a season for brotherhood and good cheer. Whatever holiday you celebrate this season, whether it be Xmas, Hanaukah, Kwanzaa, the Solstice, or just nothing at all

    Let me ask that we hold the baiting a bit -- at least of our fellow DKE / SSPites.

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:45:32 PM PST

  •  White House and Booker (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, SaoMagnifico

    Sources: White House Had A Hand In Booker's Decision

    The Obama administration appears to have started reaching out to Booker at the beginning of December, the source said.

    "Cory's hard to read, but when you have the White House and a collection of other people all saying the same thing to you, it becomes very hard to ignore. The establishment of the party was saying, 'Cory, don't run, you're gonna lose,'" the New Jersey Democrat told BuzzFeed.

    Your thoughts? It seems awkward vis-a-vis Lautenberg, who is nothing if not a reliable liberal vote. My first thought before actually reading the article was that the White House may have wanted to take the heat off Governor Christie, who they now consider cooperative, but the article presents this situation thus:
    "They viewed him [Booker] as an asset that they didn't want to tarnish, and they wanted him in the Senate."
    If Buono or one of the other candidates beats Christie, despite the anonymous predictions that "[t]he White House essentially conceded the New Jersey governor's race in December of 2012," some people are going to look awfully silly - especially if it also happens that Lautenberg decides to run for reelection and beats Booker, or he retires and Booker is defeated in a wide-open primary by someone like Pallone.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 09:59:05 PM PST

  •  WI-AD-98 SPECIAL (0+ / 0-)

    This is a special election to replace Republican Paul Farrow, who just got elected to the Wisconsin State Senate in the WI-SD-33 special election on December 4. Farrow won the SD-33 special Republican primary against AD-99 Assemblyman Chris Kapenga on November 6 and was unopposed in the special general election on December 4.

    Five Republicans have filed for the seat, and, barring complete disaster, the Republican primary is tantamount to election in this Waukesha County-based district, which includes the north side of the city of Waukesha and Pewaukee. They are Matt Morzy (backed by corrupt former Assembly Republican Floor Leader Steve "Mickey" Forti), Todd Greenwald (conservative activist), Jeanne Tarantino (Rebecca Kleefisch's 2010 WI-LtGov campaign manager, possibly related to Tonette Walker), Adam Neylon (worked for Jim Sensenbrenner in the past), and Edward Baumann (outgoing Pewaukee police chief).

    One Democrat, Eric Prudent, who ran against Farrow in the AD-98 general election on November 6, will run as a Democrat in the AD-98 special election.

    Blogging Blue's Lisa Mux filed this report on the AD-98 special election, although please note that, as usual, she is vouching for a Democratic candidate that has no chance of winning.

    Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 10:21:15 PM PST

  •  Why Hagel should be the next Sec Def (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    This isn't strictly electoral, but it's come up. Read this and see if you think having some Democrat be Sec Def is more important than these matters of conviction on Hagel's part.

    Hawks are terrified of a Hagel appointment. They should be. Hagel is that rarest of Washington creatures: a politician brave or foolish enough to follow his conscience wherever it leads. He imperiled a safe senate seat in an overwhelmingly Republican state because he so fiercely opposed the Bush administration’s foreign policy. It’s entirely possible that he’d resign rather than support another Middle Eastern war.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 01:45:50 AM PST

  •  Rep. Israel's view on 2014 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Zack from the SFV

    DCCC’s Israel Cautious About Whether House Is in Play

    “We have 20 top-tier districts that we’re recruiting in, and it’s only December,” Israel said.

    To maximize their chances, House Democrats started to recruit candidates early. In some cases, that meant on election night.

    Israel mixed condolence calls with recruitment pitches to failed candidates such as Val Demings in Florida, Brendan Mullen in Indiana and Nate Shinagawa in New York. The committee had its third recruitment meeting this morning, during which recently elected House members from California phoned in at 5 a.m. PST.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 01:55:46 AM PST

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