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Pres-by-CD: One new state, and an update to a state we brought you yesterday.

Kansas (statewide)

West Virginia (statewide)

After shaking Kansas' election results loose from the couch cushions, we can now get you presidential results from Kansas' 4 districts. Infuriatingly, the hold-up wasn't, say, precinct results from tiny Pawnee County, but rather, official county-level results from the Secretary of State! The results by CD themselves are not particularly noteworthy, other than the fact that Dems left GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder uncontested in a 44 percent Obama district is really quite appalling.

Secondly, they say the easiest things are also the easiest to screw up, and I botched this one rather badly. West Virginia's congressional map doesn't split any counties, which means no data collection or calculations at the precinct level were needed – how hard could it be? Well, as sharp-eyed reader zyangunc noted, our West Virginia vote totals were too high, almost twice the correct total. The error resulted from my failure to notice that the official results file from the SoS also included one iteration of unofficial results in addition to the official results, which led to the almost-doubling of the number of votes from each county and district. We've corrected our numbers now, and there ended up being a slight difference between the correct (official-only) and double-counted (official + unofficial) results. The news still isn't great for Nick Rahall, the Dem Rep. in WV-03, as his district was actually 33 percent Obama, not 32. (jeffmd)

10:56 AM PT: IL-02: It looks like the field for the Jesse Jackson, Jr. special election is just about set: Jackson's brother, activist Jonathan Jackson, says he won't run in the Democratic primary to replace the former congressman. That follows a similar announcement last week from Jesse Jackson's wife, Sandi.

12:31 PM PT: MI-Sen: After the twenty-point drubbing Pete Hoekstra took in his humiliating loss to Debbie Stabenow last month, it's hard to imagine the GOP putting up much of a fight against Michigan's senior senator, Democrat Carl Levin, in 2014. Now, Levin is 78, so retirement is definitely a possibility, but if he seeks re-election to a seventh (!) term, he starts off in good shape, according to PPP. While Levin's job approval ratings are decent—at 46-35, he's actually behind Stabenow's 55-36—his head-to-head performance against nominally top-tier Republican opposition is even better:

52-34 vs. Rep. Candice Miller

53-32 vs. Rep. Justin Amash

53-31 vs. state Sen. Roger Kahn

54-32 vs. state AG Bill Schuette

55-31 vs. Rep. Mike Rogers

Alright, well, I don't know that you can call Justin Amash top-tier anything (except for "top-tier most hated by the GOP establishment"), but I don't think any of these potential candidates have expressed even the slightest interest in taking on Levin, except for Kahn—and that was all the way back in June. The Hoekstra debacle might have him rethinking things now, but Kahn is term-limited and doesn't have many better options, so it'll probably be a schnook state legislator like him or some random rich guy. But even if Levin does decide to hang up his spurs, I like our chances.

12:41 PM PT: NYC Mayor: Looks like Republicans are finally going to land a legitimate candidate for next year's mayoral race in the Big Apple: MTA chief Joe Lhota is reportedly resigning from his current post, a move that looks like a prelude to a run for office. Lhota earned a lot of praise as head of the transit authority for restoring service in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, but he's still utterly unknown as a public figure: A Quinnipiac poll last month had him trailing a generic Democrat by a comical 60 to 9! Still, given the history of mayoral contests in NYC over the past 20-plus years, I'm not ready to write off anyone or anything.

1:50 PM PT: WATN?: Longtime readers of the Swing State Project (the predecessor site to Daily Kos Elections) will never forget Greg Davis, the mayor of Southaven, MS who got his ass repeatedly kicked in 2008 by Democrat Travis Childers—first in a special election, then in a runoff, and then finally in the November general. Davis was a preternaturally awkward politician from the wrong part of the district, whose campaign was best summed up when a barnstorming Dick Cheney dubbed him the mayor of "South Memphis"—Memphis, of course, being in Tennessee and not, ya know, Mississippi.

Afterwards, we mostly forgot about Davis (except to chuckle once in a while about his uncanny resemblance to Nathan Lane during his "Producers" days), until his life took an extremely unexpected turn last year when he was busted for spending taxpayer dollars at "an adult store catering to gay men while on a recruitment trip to Canada." Uh, yeah.

So anyhow, Davis, who called himself a "very conservative" individual, announced that he was gay following these revelations, which ultimately led to his (now former) wife suing his alleged lover for $1 million for "alienation of affection." (Ah, you law school types: Ringing any bar exam bells?) But the story hardly stops there!

That's because Davis was just indicted on several counts of fraud stemming from his embezzlement of some $170,000 in state funds—include $67 spent at that Canadian sex shop which kicked this whole chain of events off in the first place. Remarkably, Davis continues to serve as mayor, since Mississippi law doesn't permit his removal unless he's convicted of a crime. Of course, that may just happen very soon. We'll keep you posted!

2:33 PM PT: Ads: Here's a great collection of extremely old-school (print) political ads from the blog Vintage Ads. A random selection from the 19th century:

D. K. Burkholder for Prison Keeper, Lancaster, Pa., May 21, 1881

Many more politically-themed ads here.

2:41 PM PT: Polltopia: Meh. So Brock McCleary, the outgoing deputy director of the NRCC, is starting his own IVR polling company, supposedly to give the GOP an answer to PPP. But the problem on the right is not a lack of robopollsters—they've already got Rasmussen, We Ask America, Susquehanna and more—but a lack of quality, independence, and transparency. Given how deep the Republican Party shoved its fingers into its own ears and chanted "la-la-la I can't hear you!" to drown out bad polling news this cycle, the test for McLeary's Harper Polling will be whether it can produce reality-based results, or whether it, too, falls down the rabbit hole of epistemic closure.

2:47 PM PT: NY-St. Sen: As expected, the judge overseeing the ballot counting in the ultra-tight race in New York's 46th Senate District has certified the results, handing Republican George Amedore a 37-vote win. But Democrat Cecilia Tkaczyk plans to appeal, saying that "hundreds" of unopened ballots were improperly tossed out. (Arguments likely won't be heard until early January.) Meanwhile, Republicans are claiming that an Amedore victory—which would give them outright majority control of the Senate without any need to rely on the five members of the "Independent Democratic Conference"—will not affect their power-sharing agreement with the IDC. We'll see about that, though.

3:10 PM PT: FL-Gov: Quinnipiac has an approvals-only poll of Florida, and GOP Gov. Rick Scott isn't looking too hot. He remains mired in negative territory, at 36-45, which is better than his all-time low of 29-57 set last year—but his best-ever mark of 41-46 from this past May is hardly cause for celebration. That goes with along with a 31-43 personal favorability rating for Scott, and while we don't have head-to-heads, we also have favorables for a bunch of potential Democratic challengers:

Ex-Gov. Charlie Crist: 47-33

2010 nominee Alex Sink: 27-14

Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer: 13-8

Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio: 17-6

Outgoing state Sen. Nan Rich: 6-4

Ft. Lauderdale Mayor Jack Seiler: 4-3

Obviously anyone on this list not named Crist (or Sink) has a serious name rec deficit to overcome, but it's unsurprising that mayors in a state as big as Florida wouldn't be particularly well-known. Ultimately, that's more of an issue in a potential primary, since whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee ought to have plenty of earned media and money propelling them forward.

One side-note is that Quinnipiac also checked Ag Commissioner Adam Putnam's favorables, too. He's also unknown, at 13-6, but he could run for governor some day... perhaps even against Scott—though I don't know that anyone but me is talking about that possibility. But check this out: Quinnipiac also asked "Do you think that some other Republican should run against Rick Scott for the Republican nomination?" Among Republican respondents, 53 percent say yes versus just 30 who disagree! That's an awful lot of discontent among potential GOP primary voters, and given how toxic Scott will be in a general election, the Republican establishment might start thinking about tossing him overboard.


3:27 PM PT: RI-Gov: Did you know that Rhode Island hasn't elected a Democrat governor since the late Bruce Sundlun won a second term (back when terms lasted just two years) in 1992? Yep, 'tis true! While they've gotten obliterated on the federal level for quite some time, that statehouse streak may give Ocean State Republicans a bit of hope that they might recapture the governor's mansion, particularly since now-Gov. Lincoln Chafee's independent candidacy left them just over two points shy of victory in 2010. If Chafee doesn't switch parties (something he's publicly contemplated), and if Democrats recruit a stronger candidate this time, then perhaps the GOP might have an outside shot at a pickup.

However, their previous candidate, businessman John Robitaille, now says he won't run again, in a Facebook post that pretty much attacks Rhode Island voters for being too liberal. But other Republicans are weighing the race: Former state police chief Brendan Doherty, who lost a race for Congress against Rep. David Cicilline last month, says he's "absolutely" considering a gubernatorial bid and hopes to make a decision in four to five months. Meanwhile, Cranston Mayor Allan Fung says that he, too, is "very seriously looking" at entering the race, while Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian isn't ruling anything out but says it's "too soon" to talk about.

3:30 PM PT: HI-Sen: Unsurprisingly, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa will submit an application to the state Democratic Party for consideration as a possible replacement for the late Sen. Dan Inouye. State law requires that the party to which a deceased senator belonged submit three names to the governor; Dem Gov. Neil Abercrombie will then select one to become Inouye's successor. Of course, Inouye's dying wish was to see Hanabusa follow in his footsteps, and it's hard to imagine Abercrombie not respecting Inouye's desires, so this is probably mostly a formality. I'll still be curious to see which other two names the Hawaii Dems put on their shortlist—or perhaps they're permitted to just leave slots two and three blank.

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Comment Preferences

  •  RI-gay marriage (18+ / 0-)

    Homophobic State Sen. Pres. Teresa Paiva-Weed has agreed to let gay marriage come up for a vote in the Senate if it passes the House. http://wrnipoliticsblog.wordpress.com/...

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 06:09:28 AM PST

  •  I think it would be best if Hawaii Democrats (4+ / 0-)

    found someone young, like State Rep. Linda Ichiyama. She represents a district that is at the heart of the 1st CD. She's 26, meaning she and Gabbard could both move up to the Senate at a relatively young age. They could also balance out the representation of Asians and Pacific Islanders.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 06:12:13 AM PST

  •  I can't view West Virginia by CD (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marcus Graly

    I get a message that I need permission.  Kansas by CD opens fine.

  •  NYC - Mayor (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, MichaelNY

    Joe Lhota getting in on GOP side. While he got high marks for his handling of Sandy and is probably the best GOP hopeful, still tough seeing him win it. Then again, this is NYC!

    http://newyork.cbslocal.com/...

    •  He has been fantastic at MTA (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Lhota and his predecessor Walder are without a doubt two of the best leaders the MTA has had. I hope his successor does well.

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 08:27:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't see how he excites anyone. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      He is going to get the blame for the MTA bridge and toll increases.  That's lethal in Staten Island which is an important group of Republican votes in overwelming Democratic New York City.

      Right now I still see the Republican Party bosses backing Adolfo Carrion who is their best candidate unless they can entice a big name or a big spender who is less gaffe prone than John Catsimatidis.

      Speak of Adolfo Carrion.  Ruben Diaz Jr has called him a liberal and found his own conservative latino candidate to back in the Democratic Primary,  Erick Salgado.

      http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

      Not that he'll go anywhere.  However there is a void that could be filled by a Bronx Latino candidate.  Which is why I find it bizarre Carrion wants to run on the Republican line.

      As to whether the Republicans can win.   It'll be tough but they've got a firm ally in the Democratic Party.  We'll explore every possible way of screwing up as always!

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 02:13:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  KS-2: The Libertarian got 48% in Wyandotte (5+ / 0-)

    The best percentage an Libertarian received in a county in a congressional race. That race should not have been uncontested by Democrats.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 07:54:26 AM PST

  •  Oregon state house (5+ / 0-)

    Barack Obama's performance in Salem's state house districts:

    HD19: 45.87% (Republican-held)
    HD20: 52.3% (Republican-held)
    HD21: 59.48% (Dem-held)
    HD22: 55.8% (Dem-held)

    Looks like the Democratic districts will have their PVI move up a point, probably, while HD19 will drop a point or two, and HD20 should hold steady.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 08:01:24 AM PST

    •  HD-20 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      was a very close race was it not?

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 03:53:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  nope (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        the Dem candidate (who I don't recall running a very vigorous race in the first place) dropped out, then another one got in who said she wouldn't actively campaign because she was taking care of her sick mother or something (facepalm, I mean, kudos for taking care of your mom, but in a swing district we should not concede the race).  It wasn't even close.  But then the incumbent is fairly popular, and until it's open we won't likely have a shot at it.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 04:05:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ah, it must the marginally (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          Democratic incumbent around Salem, who was targeted heavily by Republicans.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 04:08:48 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  yeah, I believe Jeff Mapes at the Oregonian (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            had said he heard that district was moving away from Obama in the final months of the campaign, and so downgraded his estimation of our incumbent's chances there (HD22).  Obama ended up doing fine for a D+3 district, and we held on to the district too.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 04:11:56 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  If your numbers, (55%) (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, MichaelNY

              Are correct, then the district trended the opposite direction that Mapes' information said it was. D+4 in national terms.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 04:13:08 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Are NY, WV and Hawaii ever going to certify? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tommypaine

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 08:01:51 AM PST

  •  Perfectly sums up the "milestone" (5+ / 0-)

    that is Tim Scott's appointment.

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 08:38:11 AM PST

    •  Great piece, thanks, and the disconnect... (6+ / 0-)

      ...is bizarre and almost mendacious in the media, how they tout the Republican Party's "diversity" for a few tokens, all in the midst of the Democrats electing and reelecting the first black President, with a non-European name to boot, on top of nonwhite voters moving en masse to Democratic candidates in all-time high percentages amidst all-time high turnout.

      Even Chuck Todd, who is normally smart as a whip, has fallen for this nonsense this year.

      There really is an echo chamber in the media on this, and on this issue of "diversity" it includes an incestuously mutually destructive relationship between the media and the GOP.

      This significantly comes from the fact that the political media itself is a white bastion whose minority colleagues, while often good at their jobs, still are functionally tokens whose communities' perspectives don't penetrate the media psyche at all.  Only MSNBC has made much of a serious dent in diversity on the air with black and Asian reporters and anchors and commentators, and not even MSNBC has made a dent with Hispanics.  I think the lack of virtually any Hispanic represenatation in the non-Spanish media is a big problem in the media's ability to understand politics.  They certainly suffered badly in this last election for lack of awareness.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 07:38:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It seems that voters, and especially minorities, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        are smarter than the MSM on this.  Ignoring or belitting issues of concern to most minority voters (let's not get into the thinly veiled racism hurled by some in the GOP "base" against the top minority-group officeholder of all) can not be forgotten or erased by pointing to a few carefully chosen officeholders and saying "Look, he's black!"  "Yay, she's Hispanic!"

        Yet the MSM swallows this tripe whole.  I remember the 2005-06 "Year of the Black Republican" hype, built around a few highly touted candidates who all ultimately lost.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 08:02:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Re: Chuck Todd - really? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        I hear him repeat GOP talking points without comment all the time.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 07:12:33 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Wait, you mean Kris Kobach is lousy at his job? (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ramesh, bfen, jncca, KingofSpades, sapelcovits

    Shocking!  Educated guy like that.  Probably had important business that kept him from releasing the official results, like speaking on a right-wing cruise with Michelle Malkin.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 08:50:21 AM PST

  •  NRA to hold press conference Friday afternoon (5+ / 0-)

    Looks like they are going to give cover to pro-gun politicians to modify some existing gun laws. Having the NRA's blessing will be a relief to the red state Democratic senators, most of whom rely on their NRA backing in their upcoming reelection bids in 23 months.

  •  Not sure I understand the politics (3+ / 0-)

    of Boehner's Plan B. GOP reps would have to make a major concession on tax rates, while getting nothing in return on entitlements or stopping the defense sequester that many strongly oppose.

    I guess the feeling is with tax rates out of the way, they can focus on spending next year? I wonder how many will buy that.

    It's kind of bizarro world on this. Obama pushing for a balanced plan, with Boehner saying "no, this bill that only increases tax rates is fine."

    Anyway, today's the first day, I really think we will go over the cliff, at least for a little while.

    •  I think the idea is that with Plan B they (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      take the tax rates off the table and then they can force entitlement cuts and spending cuts when they take the debt ceiling hostage next year. And they also can avoid doing anything to help the economy, which Obama's plan would do by including stimulus and an extension of the unemployment benefits.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 10:19:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Right (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, askew, kman23, MichaelNY

        Norquist is apparently giving reps a pass on this, while Heritage and Club for Growth are urging a no vote.

        •  Yeah, wonder what will happen with that vote. (5+ / 0-)

          If Democrats all vote no, this could fail to pass the House.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 10:44:05 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't think Boehner controls the GOP votes (6+ / 0-)

            well enough to pass this bill without Dem support.

            President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

            by askew on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 10:49:59 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Cantor apparently said it had the votes (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              But that was last night.

              They can lose, I think, 25 or so and still get 218 Republicans.

              •  We'll see what happens. The bill won't pass (5+ / 0-)

                the Senate so it doesn't really matter, but I'd still like it to fail the House as well.

                President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

                by askew on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:29:06 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yeah, me too (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  askew, MichaelNY

                  I cant imagine they would actually vote on it, if they didnt have the votes. So if they pull it from consideration in the next 24 hours, we know it doesnt have the votes.

                  Unless, I'm mistaken, I thought Kevin McCarthy said a few weeks ago, he would not whip a bill that increased tax rates. And that's basically all this bill does.

                  •  Your first sentence is very mistaken (3+ / 0-)

                    Boehner repeatedly has proven a crappy vote counter who has lost votes.

                    He was personally to blame for the failed first TARP vote  in fall 2008 that caused the markets to tumble.

                    Boehner also failed to count votes for other bills this past Congress that went on to fail and had to be revoted, or scheduled votes had to be yanked until more whipping and changes to the bills were done.  This happened with Boehner's own debt ceiling bill last year!

                    So yes Boehner and his team are dumb enough to actually vote and have Boehner's own plan fail when he needs it passed to serve whatever political purpose he thinks it serves.

                    But your original skepticism on the underlying politics was still right that Boehner doesn't really gain from this.  His back is really to the wall, he's getting crushed in a vice.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 07:42:29 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Mhm, he also was forced to botch his own Plan B (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                      to try to get more Republicans on board:
                      http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

                      And this will likely get worse for him in January with a diminished GOP majority.  He may actually have to compromise further.

                      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                      by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 08:04:04 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Next Congress might actually be easier for him (3+ / 0-)

                        A smaller majority paradoxically might strengthen Boehner's hand with his own caucus, since he can argue he has less room to maneuver, & he more easily, without having Joe Walsh and some others causing trouble, can get to "a majority of the majority" which at least at times has been his operating principle to maintain ongoing political authority among his caucus.

                        Or it might make no difference.

                        But I tend to think it won't get harder for him, that if anything my suggested paradox is more likely than increased trouble.  After all, the Democrats will by and large support any deal Obama agrees to on any legislation, and that makes Boehner's dealmaking a little bit easier.

                        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 08:44:11 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't want to debate this (4+ / 0-)

      Because I'm sure lots of you agree with them. But I simply have to say this somewhere - the front page has already gone over the cliff with the shift in commentary. You can disagree and oppose but this has moved way beyond that.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:35:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I understand and agree (4+ / 0-)

        I'm sorry, I didnt meant to bring that kind of discussion in here. It was more about the politics of the move.

        I will stay away from the topic in the future on DKE, because yeah, the tone on the FP has gotten really bad.  

        •  You're right (6+ / 0-)

          The "jump off the cliff!" bullshit in the front page diaries reminds me of the "kill the bill" crap from three years ago regarding health care reform.

          To many of the so-called "progressives" who comment there, the potentially harmful real-life effects of action or inaction and what is realistically achievable are apparently less important than patting themselves on the back for being such "principled progressives".  What is progressive about a possible recession?  And their abstract "principle" doesn't help people pay their bills or afford healthcare.

          Now I remember why I never joined Daily Kos until SSP moved there.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 12:40:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Now, now (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, tietack, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            The whole talk of recession has always reeked of hyperbole to me. And there has been some very prominent support for such a move, even Paul Krugman wrote on the matter.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 03:57:07 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm torn on this (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, MichaelNY, ArkDem14

              I agree that there is a community of liberals who are ignorant and completely unaware of a real risk of recession from going into the New Year with this.

              At the same time, I'm very skeptical there would be a recession caused by a deal being pushed into January.  So for maybe one payday people would see higher incremental (and only incremental) tax withholdings.  Sequester cuts, too, would be very incremental, and frankly might be deferred in some way (accounting offers all kinds of gimmicks) in the expectation of a deal eventually being made.

              But that said, if you're POTUS, do you really want to gamble with a recession?  Do you want to gamble that you'll get an acceptable deal in January when you couldn't get it in December?  Does the timing matter that much, or instead do the politics remain the same?  Do tax rates rising suddenly in January really matter in the GOP whip count?

              And this is all before a couple things I pointed out yesterday, that Obama is looking ahead to not just the near-term economy, but also his legislative agenda in 2013 which includes immigration reform, guns, and whatever else, and he needs Boehner to still have juice in his own caucus to be able to work deals with him on things like this.

              Obama conceivably could crush Boehner and the House GOP on the fiscal cliff resolution, but then get nothing the rest of the Congress, and just blame the GOP the rest of the way to some success amid an improving economy and accelerated withdrawal from Afghanistan both giving Obama public support.  And that can help us in the midterms and maybe create an opening for taking the House in the midterm.  But that's a longshot and not what a President plays for......Obama wants to govern effectively and get things done, not just keep playing for the next election.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 07:52:18 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Just reading over the certificates (0+ / 0-)

    of ascertainment, looking for names I recognized in New Jersey's, when I saw that Virgil Goode, Merlin Miller, and Jeff "NSA did 9/11 - I saw it" Boss had all, depressingly, managed to field full slates of electors. Very surprised that the last two would find 14 people willing to put their names out there as supporters of the candidates - or is there something I'm missing? Maybe they're just the candidates' neighbors who wanted to do them a favor?

    In any event, any ETA on when district PVIs are gonna be available for the state - especially curious about the new NJ-05.

    How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

    by gabjoh on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 09:34:57 AM PST

  •  IL-02: Jonathan Jackson rules out a bid and (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

    praises two candidates.

    He also praised two of the Democratic candidates for the seat. "Senator Toi Hutchinson, I think she's a superb candidate. I know Mr. Napoleon Harris; I think he's a fine young man with a bright political future," he said.
    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 09:36:27 AM PST

  •  HI-Sen: Daniel Akaka has been "mentioned" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, ArkDem14

    http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/...

    That's interesting, some in Hawaii would want to keep Akaka because of his seniority, since with two freshman senators on January 3rd, Hawaii would drop from #1 in seniority to #50.  Akaka didn't totally want to retire but he felt he didn't have the resources to win another election so he didn't run.

    I doubt that would happen though.  Sen. Inouye's wish was for Hanabusa to be appointed and that should be respected.

  •  Robert Bork passed away. RIP. (8+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 10:36:44 AM PST

  •  GOP pollster starting new robo poll to rival PPP (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueDem

    link.

    Will be interesting to see how accurate they are.

  •  Vulnerable Democrat and GOP House members in '14 (3+ / 0-)

    I take it Republicans will try to get back CA-36 in the midterm year?  Who could run?  especially after they were caught rather off-guard there.   I also take it Republicans will try for CA-7 and CA-52.  As for Republicans, Valadao could easily be vulnerable (D+1 district), but Miller in CA-31 is easily target #1.  I see Republicans trying for TX-23 again, but if and when that gets a little more Dem (re-redistricting), that gets harder.  Where else?

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 10:48:27 AM PST

    •  FL-18, FL-26, NH-01, NH-02, CT-05, AZ-01, AZ-02, (3+ / 0-)

      AZ-09, NC-07, UT-04, GA-12.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 10:54:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think CT-05, UT-04, and FL-26 are at risk. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        FL-26 was over D+2 this year and the FL GOP dropped the ball.  With CT-05, it'll be harder to boot an incumbent.  As for UT-04, 2012 was their best year (Mormon Republican nominated for President), and it'll be real hard to win now that Matheson has just been elected to a new district.

        I could also see Democrats making a push for IA-03.  what other GOPers do you see as vulnerable?

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:00:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Let me rephrase that (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          By not at risk, I mean not in jeopardy.  Potentially competitive?  Absolutely.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:02:44 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  UT04 could be at risk (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

          if they nominate someone from Salt Lake County instead of Utah County.

          And FL26, You're kind of overlooking Presidential year/off year dynamics. How many of those people are coming back for 2014?

          The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

          by RBH on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:04:47 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm not sure anyone can predict FL-26 right now (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            kman23, MichaelNY

            it's the first time in a while one of the three Hispanic (but Cuban-tilting) districts has a Dem incumbent.  I guess it in part depends on how Democrats prepare for the other midterm elections.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:09:26 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  With ancestrally Republican districts like FL-26 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          it's never safe this soon.  With a clean candidate, rather than Rivera, they would be competitive.

          I don't think CT-05 or UT-04 will be vulnerable, either, but they'll probably try for them.

          Unfortunately I don't see many Republicans as vulnerable, aside from the obvious ones like Coffman, Miller, Yoder and Barr.  We'd have to have a serious advantage going into 2014 in order to win more than a handful of seats.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:09:08 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  We COULD try to defeat the GOPer (6+ / 0-)

            who Nate Shinagawa came close to besting without national support.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:13:11 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Also, Rep. Grimm is vulnerable. (5+ / 0-)

            We came closer than expected this year and it's a sin to let such a corrupt man go free.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:13:58 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Without the Hurricane he would've lost. (5+ / 0-)

              All the negative attacks against him stopped and he got to act the statesman rather than the candidate.  The race effectively ended the day the hurricane hit.

              Unfortunately the big question is as always whether the Obama voters will show up in a non-presidential year.  What has doomed Democrats in Staten Island is North Shore minority turnout usually ranging from awful to atrocious.

              Add to that solid Democratic neighborhoods in Brooklyn being replaced by always high turnout Orthodox neighborhoods.  If we had just kept the same district as McMahon had we would've won or came within a whisker this year.

              The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

              by Taget on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 02:22:06 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  South Brooklyn (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                R30A, MichaelNY

                is still getting more diverse, as is Staten Island, so on the whole, this district is slowly inching away from Republicans.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 03:59:15 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  CA 07 and CA52 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        in an off year.

        •  Do you think the CA GOP drops the ball (3+ / 0-)

          with the statewide races in 2014?  That would really hurt them, particularly if people like Tim Donnelly run.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:24:16 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Cause that would probably precipitate downballot (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:25:14 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Who does CA GOP have that is better? (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, James Allen, MichaelNY

               There are no statewide GOP officeholders and any random rich folks would likely be dissuaded from running because of the experiences of Queen Meg and Carly Failorina in 2010.

                 Maybe an inoffensive nonentity like Elizabeth Emken (who failed to break 40% against DiFi this year) would turn off fewer swing voters than a caveman like Tim Donnelly, but would it really matter that much? The ideological neanderthals would be more motivated to run. I want to see Orly Taints run for SoS again. That's entertainment!

                  The only danger I see would be because of weird top-two electoral math: say if there were two equally matched Repubs running against six or eight Dems for an open seat. That is more or less the CA-31 in 2012 scenario.

            Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

            by Zack from the SFV on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 02:43:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  it does matter (5+ / 0-)

              Hispanic turnout would likely be much higher with Donnelly than with a vanilla Reep like Emken. This would make it much easier for Ruiz to hold his seat and much harder for Gary Miller (who is probably a big underdog in any case), Valadao, and maybe even Denham to hold theirs.

              SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 03:24:36 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  good point (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, MichaelNY

                   and it does seem likely that the crazies will carry the day in the GOP. Maybe there may be some two Dem runoffs for some of the statewide offices like Treasurer or Controller which will be open. Governor and Attorney General should be D vs R assuming that both Jerry Brown and Kamala Harris run for re-election.

                Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

                by Zack from the SFV on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 03:53:41 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  KoS already mentioned those. (0+ / 0-)

          His question was "where else?"

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:24:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  more (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        WV3: The GOP got within 8 in 2012 with little money. Obama may have been a drag on Rahall's vote and Dems' collapse in this district in 2012 may have been in part a function of coal production in southern WV being down nearly 10% from 2011, but in any case the GOP will likely see what they can do here with more money.

        NY1? Bishop won by less than 5, they may be able to at least make him sweat in a midterm.

        NY18: historically usually GOP, SPaM won by just 3.4.

        NY21: Owens won by just 2, although the district is trending blue.

        NY24? Buerkle is weak and still lost by less than 5, but that may be misleading because the Green got nearly 10%. Still, a better candidate might have a chance here.

        IL10: Dold! lost by just 1. This will be very hard to retake, but any seat you lose by less than 5 should at least be contested.

        MA6: Tierney just squeaked it out by 1. If he stays or retires, the GOP can at least play here.

        That said, I have all of these seats at lean D, along with all the ones you mentioned except NC7 (tossup) and AZ2 (tilt D).

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:35:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, Onondaga County (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          has a GOP supermajority on its county council (though most of them are RINO's) and a GOP exec. though we saw how that worked out against Louise Slaughter.  Onondaga County gave Obama 60.79% of the 2-party vote this year, btw (counting fusion votes).

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 05:15:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Probably Bonnie Garcia (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

      She held an Assembly seat that covered part of CA-36, winning very narrowly in each election.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 10:57:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm working on a post... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      On Democratic defense, but I want to wait until New York's numbers are in, because New York has the last outstanding potentially competitive Democratic seats.  

      Anyway, this is my 2014 outlook for the Democrats, discounting retirements and New York seats.  I'm not considering D+3 seats and above, because I think these are highly unlikely to flip.  

      Likely R:
      NC-07

      Lean R:
      FL-18

      Tossup:
      NH-01
      WV-03
      CA-53

      Lean D:
      AZ-01
      AZ-02 (Lean R with McSally)
      AZ-09
      CA-07
      CA-36
      GA-12
      FL-26
      IL-12
      MN-08
      UT-04

      Likely D:
      CT-05 (Tossup with Roraback)

      Safe D:
      MN-01
      MN-07
      OR-05

      •  I think you are being far too pessimistic. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, James Allen, MichaelNY

        Nothing is worse than a tossup IMHO, and none of your tossups are tossups.

        Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

        by R30A on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 01:21:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  We're going to lose some seats... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          In 2012 due to midterms having higher Republican turnout.  I don't think a single term of incumbency is going to do much to protect reps in swing districts any longer, given how polarized the electorate is.  A D+2 district, for example, only needs a net swing in the electorate of around 4% to become a district which a Democrat would have a hard time holding, and I don't think that this is impossible (even though I expect 2014 will be a better electorate for us than 2010).  

          I expect us to lose around five seats, and pick up one or two.  I look at Lean D as basically meaning "quite likely a competitive race," since anything else at this point would be jumping to conclusions.  

          •  our incumbents in the toughest seats, though (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            are people who have been around for a hell of a lot more than one term.  Some of their constituents are new, but they are not freshmen, or even sophomores.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 05:58:13 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  One thing I can tell (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              is that if Republicans couldn't knock off McIntyre this round, they will have a much harder time next round.

              •  Are you kidding? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                He scraped by in 2012 with a few hundred votes - in a presidential turnout year!

                Black turnout will be at least somewhat lower in the district with Obama not on the ballot in 2014.  Dude is a goner unless he works really, really quickly to entrench himself with "conservative Democrats."

            •  We are freshmen heavy. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Out of the 19 Democratic seats so far calculated with 2012 only PVIs of less than D+2, only seven (Schrader, Walz, Peterson, Barrow, McIntyre, Rahall, and Matheson) are not freshmen.  

              Admittedly the last five of these are in the seats which would be the biggest danger (seas a Republican would almost certainly pick up if open).  In all cases but McIntyre I think we have a good chance of holding onto them in 2014, but the dynamics in WV-03 are a bit discouraging.  

          •  Midterms are becoming more favorable for us (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, MichaelNY

            The demographics are moving our way in midterms just as in Presidentials, it's just that nonwhite vote share naturally does, as you say, lag in the midterms compared to the Presidentials.  But the turnout model continues to improve.

            In 2010 we collapsed with white voters, performing worse with them nationally than even in 1994, and worse than than Democratic Presidential nominee since Mondale.  So that more than offset continuing increased nonwhite vote share.

            But getting white vote performance back into just the low 40s is enough to give us a 50-50 shot at winning the national House vote, which should translate to very little ultimate difference from 2012 in overall change of seats.

            Ultimately I suspect 2014 won't be a neutral year.  If Boehner somehow proves stronger as a Speaker than ever before and is able to make a fiscal deal that doesn't hurt him even as Obama agrees to it, and then is able to help sheperd something else through the House like immigration reform, then 2014 can be a neutral year.  Otherwise, I suspect one party or the other will find itself on the wrong side of public opinion and will suffer more than can be anticipated today.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 08:00:06 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I expect 2014... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Will be moderately bad for the Democrats.  

              I'm not expecting a 2010 style wipeout for several reasons.  One, the electorate will have changed slightly over four years.  Second, the House will be in Republican hands, and blamed to some degree for whatever governmental or economic ills we have at that time.  

              That said, the electorate which goes to the polls in 2014 will be a few percent more conservative than the 2012 electorate.  So we could see, for example, in exit polls the 2010 midterm voters were 50% Romney, 50% Obama, or maybe even a bit worse.  Incumbency will inoculate more freshmen in swing districts than we would think, but this narrow swing will be enough to hurt us in a lot of seats, and absent scandals or retirements, I don't see us picking up anything but CA-31 right now in 2014.  

              I actually kind of hope that 2014 is a moderately good year for Republicans (on the federal level - on the state level I hope we take back MI, WI, OH, and PA - that's the big prize now).  It will make them feel vindicated that whatever ass-backwards strategy they had worked, and they'll waltz into 2016 acting like it's still 2008/2012 and get spanked.  

        •  I agree that Telephasic is too pessimistic (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, Zack from the SFV, R30A

          But I am between the two of you.

          Likely R:
          NC-07 -> Tossup/Tilt R

          Lean R:
          FL-18 -> Lean D with West, Tossup with someone less vitriolic

          Tossup:
          NH-01 -> Tossup/Tilt D to Lean D. Depends on the political climate. The Democrats could lose this seat and many others if 2014 suddenly becomes 2010.
          WV-03 Agreed
          CA-53 -> Maybe, but Tilt D. I think the Republicans are gonna have a hard time retaking any Democratic seats in California

          Lean D:
          AZ-01
          AZ-02 (Lean R with McSally) -> Depends on who runs for which 3rd party. With a strong Libertarian candidate, Tossup/Tilt D to Lean D with McSally.
          AZ-09
          CA-07
          CA-36
          GA-12
          FL-26
          IL-12
          MN-08
          UT-04

          Likely D:
          CT-05 (Tossup with Roraback) -> Tilt D at least with Roraback, unless the political climate turns sour for some reason (e.g., a new recession). Why would voters have a strong reason to turn Esty out?

          Safe D:
          MN-01
          MN-07
          OR-05

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 10:22:48 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  here are mine (5+ / 0-)

        tossup: NC7, FL18.
        tilt D: AZ2
        lean D: AZ1, AZ9, CA7, CA36, CA52, CT5, GA12, IL10, MA6, NH1, NH2, NY1, NY18, NY21, NY24, TX23, UT4, WV3.

        GOP-held seats:

        lean D: CA31
        lean R: CA21, CO6, FL10, IL13, IN2, KY6, MI1, MI7, MI11, MN6, NE2, NY23.

        Everything else is likely or safe for the incumbent party.

        AZ2 is tilt D with McSally, lean D with anyone else.

        If West runs again, FL18 goes to lean D. People don't like sore losers.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 02:48:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  South Korea has elected (11+ / 0-)

    their first female president.

    Park Geun-hye claimed victory. She is from the same party as the outgoing SK president Lee Myung-Bak.

    link.

  •  A Politically Easy Deficit Fix? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kman23, MichaelNY

    Before I start, I will say that I hope this doesn't generate a policy discussion and that we can stay focused on how this might impact our party politically.

    With that said, there are a bunch of solutions to the deficit problem that are going unmentioned. It seems relatively easy to nit and tuck; see this for a good summary. Getting substantial sums of money without going for politically risky spending cuts and/or tax increases is far more difficult; take a look at the previous few decades to see some examples.

    What might a good alternative be? A financial transaction tax of some type. This link suggests a 1 percent tax on all trades would generate $320 billion--and that's per year, not over 10 years. As a point of comparison, putting the top two brackets back to where they were during the Clinton administration and leaving the others in place gets us about $700-800 billion over 10 years.

    I've seen different estimates for this sort of tax, but assuming it's roughly correct, it seems like the perfect political weapon. It's the epitome of a tax that hits the wealthiest among us, almost certainly touching the middle class and upper middle class only a little, if at all, and the poor not at all. It also hits an industry even many conservatives seem to think has gotten a pass. Imagine if this were in place and the money were used for some combination of an infrastructure bank, fixing the long-term issues with Social Security (and/or health care?), and/or permanently lowering the payroll tax. Wouldn't you like to be a Democrat campaigning for this policy?

    I emailed a prominent liberal economist who has written about this stuff before. His pithy response? "Look at who finances the Democratic party." That's true to a large degree, but at this point, can it get a lot worse? Even if it can, wouldn't we gain more from this than we'd lose by further angering those in the finance community? Even some bigwigs in the industry, like Vanguard's John Bogle (usually a Republican, but someone who switched in 2004 to vote for Kerry in the primaries, I think), are supporters of this idea. Hell, even Pete Peterson--yes, THAT Pete Peterson--are supporters.

    Why isn't some enterprising Democrat who is at the beginning of his or her career as opposed to nearing the end of it beating this drum loudly? Seems like a no brainer.

    "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

    by bjssp on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 12:02:38 PM PST

    •  go for it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone
      Why isn't some enterprising Democrat who is at the beginning of his or her career as opposed to nearing the end of it beating this drum loudly? Seems like a no brainer.
    •  Dem politicians are spineless in general (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, KingTag

      In the past four years, what Dems have put forward different/bold/innovative ideas on anything?  (good ideas or bad/crackpot ideas, doesn't matter.)

      Pension reform, entitlement reform, the deficit... where are the Dem senators and congresscitters proposing good or bad ideas that really could effect something?  Basically nowhere.

      Screwed up country where the Dems are the party of the status quo and the Republicans are the party of simply "no".  Proposals to "make it better" seems to be the territory of only the Paulists.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 01:27:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY MTA chief Joe Lhota (6+ / 0-)

    Suprised that he would be a Republican.  The standard national Republican idea of mass transit seems to be everyone sitting in their own SUV getting well under 20 miles to the gallon, and filling it up for over $4/gallon to provide a mega-profit to Big Oil, on top of their generous federal subsidies without which they would shrivel up and die (wait, did I say something about their huge profits?  Silly me for letting that slip.)

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 01:03:39 PM PST

  •  Sorting through the musical chairs (8+ / 0-)

    of committee chairs.

    Leahy says he is staying at Judiciary, and tweeted congrats to Barbara Mikulski, for becoming the first female chair of the appropriations committee. So I guess that means Feinstein staying at Intelligence.

  •  Presidential Results by CD: With Party. (5+ / 0-)

    I made the above graph of Obama's 2008 two-party share vs. his 2012 two-party share.  Blue districts are currently D-held, red districts are currently R-held.  I limited it to 30% Obama to 70% Obama in both directions to try to make it somewhat more legible.  You can see how polarized things are, and how correlated with 2008.  

    Here's the same thing, but limited to swing seats (44%-61% in 2008, 45%-61% in 2012, which was just a mistake).  The line is a uniform swing of 2 points away from 2008.  

    Quite a lot of info there--what pops out to you?

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 02:10:11 PM PST

    •  Some thoughts. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Note that AZ-01 and AZ-02 come out as surprising Democratic wins even if you just look at 2012 (the y-axis).  Also note how Sinema's AZ-09 "trended" more D from 2008 than AZ-01 and AZ-02--so discounting McCain's home state effect, it's probably actually trending D, or they're actually trending R.  I'm going to see if I can use Cook to get some Kerry numbers in there.  

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 02:18:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Slightly expanded version of the second one. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, MichaelNY, CF of Aus

      I added the horizontal and vertical lines to easily distinguish seats Obama won and lost in 2008 and in 2012.

      I think 45% Obama to 60% Obama in both 2008 and 2012--these seats--covers the vast majority of contestable House seats.  And despite a relatively strong 2012, there's still a lot of red.  But most of those seats, Obama lost in both elections.  And--I'm not sure I quite realized this--we can also see that FL-26 and FL-27 are the only McCain/Obama seats in the country, so far.

      Also note that Randy Forbes' VA-04 is quite close to that category.  Indeed, among seats Obama lost in 2008, where we have numbers for 2012, Obama came the closest to winning in:

      VA-04    Forbes, Randy    49.34% Obama two-party share.
      AZ-02    Barber, Ron    49.24%
      FL-25    Diaz-Balart, Mario    48.94%
      AZ-01    Kirkpatrick, Ann    48.73%
      CA-39    Royce, Ed    48.11%
      FL-07    Mica, John    47.72%
      OH-15    Stivers, Steve    47.15%
      FL-02    Southerland, Steve    47.06%
      CO-03    Tipton, Scott    46.93%
      OH-01    Chabot, Steve    46.91%
      VA-05    Hurt, Robert    46.65%
      NM-02    Pearce, Steve    46.48%
      VA-01    Wittman, Rob    46.25%
      FL-10    Webster, Dan    46.12%
      FL-15    Ross, Dennis    46.11%
      IA-04    King, Steve    45.90%
      OH-16    Renacci, Jim    45.84%
      And all of those are Republican except for the AZ seats.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 02:38:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  ok (3+ / 0-)

      Above the line you have a lot of heavily Hispanic districts, especially the Miami Cuban districts. Below the line you mostly have districts with a lot of white swing voters, and/or where Obama had a big campaign effort advantage in 2008 but not in 2012. I don't think Obama did that badly with swing voters in 2012, as he did better than Kerry in almost all of these districts. It's just that he cleaned up among swing voters in 2008.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 02:59:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  IN Sen (10+ / 0-)

    Donnelly open to gun reforms.

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/...

    "If we can't keep our children safe, and I'm afraid to have a dialogue because I'm afraid someone might vote against me, I don't have a right to be here." -- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV)

    by drhoosierdem on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 02:10:12 PM PST

  •  CA SoS site updated with certified vote totals (3+ / 0-)

    http://www.sos.ca.gov/...

    But the cool maps are gone again, unless I'm missing them somehow...

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 02:16:26 PM PST

  •  KY State Senate-16 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    http://www.courier-journal.com/...

    Sorry, but we only got 20% here, for David Williams' Senate seat, which is the most Republican seat in the state. The big question is what this does with redistricting, where the GOP wanted to merge SD-15 and SD-16 and move one of the seats to a Bullitt/Nelson seat. So Sara Beth Gregory (R-Monticello) and Chris Girdler (R-Somerset) are not likely to want to up paired together, so all bets are off for that old redistricting plan.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 03:01:43 PM PST

  •  The Ticket in FL (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat, MichaelNY

    Crist-Sink '14. Crist promises to back Sink for Gov after he's done. They'd steamroll the primary field and the general.

    Interestingly, FL is one of those states where governors can serve more than two terms if there's a break in there. So's OH. Smartest bet is to run the former governors in those two states, they can serve through the next round of redistricting.

    •  Crist backed a ban on gay adoption. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, drhoosierdem

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 03:24:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He was a moderate Republican (5+ / 0-)

        Good on some things from 06-10, bad on others. He implemented a cap-and-trade-ish program in FL and appointed some pro-choice justices to the Supreme Court. And wrecked Jeb Bush's education plan too. If he hadn't opted out of re-election he probably would have been purged.

        If he gets elected as a Democrat, he'd govern as a Democrat, within the parameters of FL's politics. He wouldn't have to answer to the antigay types as a Republican would, he'd have to answer to LGBT advocates. Different interest groups will lead to different policies. Arlen Specter, for example, wound up being quite liberal after switching. Sure, it's opportunistic, but all successful politicians are to some extent.

      •  He also vetoed (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        madmojo, MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

        a virulently anti-choice bill, supported teachers' unions at a challenging time, embraced stimulus dollars, and extended voting hours.

        •  That is all I need to know about this man. (0+ / 0-)

          He disgusts me.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 08:33:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, itskevin

            know right. What a radical. He'll fit right in with the Tea Party oh wait a moment.....

            The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

            by ehstronghold on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 08:40:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  You do realize I was talking about (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              drhoosierdem

              the adoption issue. He's a pure opportunist. That is it. I'm not to thrilled with excuses being made for him.

              20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 08:48:29 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  yeah, I normally don't agree with you on much (0+ / 0-)

                But Crist disgusts me too.  It would be extremely difficult for me to vote for him, even against Rick Scott.

                20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                by jncca on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 09:06:12 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  I wouldn't make an excuse (7+ / 0-)

                I'd just point you to the post Nate Silver did about how much Senators and Representatives change their voting records after they change parties.

                I have no great love for Crist, but a lot of Democrats have anti-gay records, too, or used to. That's no excuse, just an observation. I don't get to vote in Florida, so I don't have to make any decision about whom to vote for, nor why, but I'll say this: Crist would be a damn sight better than any current Republican, if that's ultimately the choice.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 10:40:14 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Sure, if it's ultimatly the choice, but I would (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  hope Florida Democrats see past the opportunist. I didn't have a problem with Arlen Spector, but I can't shake the fact that beyond the adoption issue Crist bothers me. I just don't find him appealing or redeeming in anyway.

                  20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                  by ndrwmls10 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 10:54:19 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  If another Democrat can beat Scott, fine (0+ / 0-)

                    But I think there are many positive things Crist has done and said, and if he's the strongest candidate the Democrats have, there's a good argument to be made that he should be chosen in the primaries. Let's see what the field looks like, though.

                    By the way, I fully supported Joe Sestak against Specter, though with full awareness of the tactical problems that gave the Democratic Party vis a vis party-switchers. And I still think that Sestak gave the Democrats the best chance to win that election, though he, too, ultimately fell slightly short.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:24:20 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  You've supported more conservative Democrats... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, GradyDem, itskevin

            Over more progressive candidates in the past on the basis of gender. Is it possible that Crist "disgusts" you more because he has potential competition for the Democratic nomination from Nan Rich, Pam Iorio, and Alex Sink than because he gave lip support to a bill you didn't like while he was governor?

            I'm not saying this as a huge Crist fan, nor as a Rich or Iorio detractor (Sink, well, I'm not big on). I'm just saying, you seem to reserve your vitriol here for men who challenge women in Democratic primaries.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 09:37:30 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'd support Buddy Dyer or Jack Seiler (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              over Crist any day of the week and that's the end of the subject for me.

              20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 10:50:30 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Who are those guys? (0+ / 0-)

                The problem is that Crist has very high name recognition and has shown the ability to win the Governorship before. Who is remotely comparable in the Democratic Party?

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 11:26:05 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  That's the problem with DKE sometimes. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  askew

                  Everything is always 100% about electability. If some people on DKE had their way, Tammy Baldwin would still be in the House. There are times were it serves well, like IL-10, but this isn't that time. Polling shows Scott to be very unpopular and most potential candidates lead him. In fact, every PPP poll from 2011 had Sink performing better against Scott than Crist.

                  20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                  by ndrwmls10 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 03:11:07 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  If I had been voting in Wisconsin (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    tietack

                    I surely would have voted for Baldwin in the primaries. I nearly always vote for the candidate I actually most support in primaries. But yeah, here we talk strategy, and with Sink, it's once burned, twice shy. Would you not admit that she ran a horrible campaign, and that to be beaten by a felon, even in 2010, was a horrible and humiliating result?

                    So please, make some good suggestions other than Sink.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 03:39:19 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  The problem is (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

                    Nobody questioned Baldwin's campaign skills. She was running a very strong campaign everywhere in Wisconsin, but was up against a very popular former Republican governor (I still maintain that Baldwin would have lost had Thompson not decided to "take a vacation.")

                    Sink? She's not a great campaigner. So can she win because Scott is so unpopular?

                    •  but we heard a lot about how (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Baldwin was way too far to the left. and even some stuff about how WI voters in rural areas would recoil at voting for a lesbian.

                      so much for that...

                      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                      by sapelcovits on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 03:12:57 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

      •  Earl Blumenauer and a lot of liberals voted for (6+ / 0-)

        DOMA.  Times change.  People change.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 04:19:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  But he's flip-flopping all over, ndrwmls (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

        He's really pulling a Romney, except that he's naturally and instinctively more left-leaning, rather than a pure chameleon.

        He's already openly expressed regret recently for opposing gay rights.

        I suspect Crist is going to be a decent Democrat, probably to the left of someone like Manchin.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 08:17:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Just keep Sink away (7+ / 0-)

      She needs to be done. Not only did she run a terrible campaign, but she's an uninspiring Democrat who's probably not much more to the left than Crist would run. She'd also be 70 years old when she ran for a full term, under your plan.

      If something like that happens, I'd prefer someone like Pam Iorio or Kathy Castor on the ticket with Crist.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 04:05:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Crist should not run for Governor (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Period. We have a great chance to take this vile SOB Prick Scott out in '14. The last thing we want to do is galvanize and rallied up the FLGOP around Scott, they really hate Christ. Its nice he's now a Dem and campaigned for Obama, but his time is done. Ill be damn if we piss away this Governor seat!

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 05:40:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ted Strickland is a bit old... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      To be expected to serve into 2021. And I don't know if Crist would "steamroll" either of those fields. I think he's maintained some popularity among independents and Third Way types, but I expect he'll face some skepticism from left-wingers who aren't convinced by his switch to the Democratic Party (which makes complete sense to me both politically and ideologically, FWIW) and I don't think he brings back a lot of Republicans perhaps unless Gov. Scott is renominated.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 09:45:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Crist will win the primary (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, CF of Aus, tietack

        There is almost no one in the Florida Democratic Party to take him on. Iorio and Kastor will not run against him. Sink will not win another primary.

        People on Dailykos may not like Crist because of his old rhetoric, but like Arlen Specter, he will be a good Democrat after his switch. I don't really care if he has fought for all these liberal causes his whole life or not. What matters is getting a governor in Tallahassee that will push for progressive policy and block conservative policy. Crist is a shoe-in to win the governor's mansion. No reason to risk losing and letting Scott (or any other Republican) control FL for 4 more years (coming from someone who lives in FL)

  •  Have a great Winter Break everyone (14+ / 0-)

    I'm heading out of the country today for family holidays and probably won't make it back on here till early January. Hope everyone has a great New Years!

    24, gay Atari Democrat CA-41

    by lordpet8 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 03:22:12 PM PST

  •  Presidential Results by CD: 2004/2012, with party. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    andgarden, sacman701, jncca

    Using Cook (and the excellent subscription/Adobe stuff I have here at the Penn library), I've added Kerry's results by district, which Cook has rounded to the nearest integer.  The limits are 35% to 60% for Kerry and 35% to 65% for Obama, and the line would be a uniform swing of 3 points in the Democratic direction from 2004 to 2012.

    We can see here that the Miami results are actually outweighed by the dramatic swing in several California districts and in FL-09 (I actually had to extend the graph in that direction just to include those!).  But there are also some South Florida seats that aren't apparently trending D, and we can also see that some disappointing Obama performances, such as in PA-08 or in the Arizona seats, aren't merely artifacts of comparisons with 2008.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 03:46:06 PM PST

  •  HI-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    I will go on record and say this: If Abercromie does not pick Hanabusa to fill Inouye's seat, he will have single-handedly cursed the Hawaii Democratic Party for the next 50 years.

    Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 06:44:22 PM PST

  •  RIP to Ben Lujan Sr (5+ / 0-)

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 09:05:19 PM PST

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