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Pres-by-CD: As you've probably guessed from our crowdsourcing, we're running into data sufficiency constraints in our calculations, slowing our pace somewhat.

Alabama (AL-05)

Texas (TX-10, TX-17)

West Virginia (statewide)

Parker Griffith...can't win. Rather, he probably couldn't win AL-05 as it looks now, which is now 35 percent Obama.

TX-10 is rather unremarkable as well, as the "compromise" map implemented by the court solidly protects once-upon-a-time vulnerable GOPer Mike McCaul. TX-17, formerly represented by Dem Chet Edwards, is a 37 percent Obama district, which is actually 5 points better than the old TX-17 was in 2008; this anomaly results from the new TX-17 taking a large chunk of stauchly Democratic Travis County (Austin).

Finally, we have official results from the state of West Virginia, which finally certified its results on Monday. WV-02 continues to be Obama's best district in the state, and WV-03 has dropped to 32 percent Obama. This puts Nick Rahall in the same boat as Jim Matheson (who nominally has it a touch worse at 30 percent Obama, but that's at least partially attributable to Mitt Romney's "home" state advantage).

9:19 AM PT: HI-Sen, HI-01: Ordinarily, when a sitting senator resigns or passes away, there's a flurry of speculation about who his or her successor might be. But following the death of Sen. Dan Inouye, things might be very different. That's because shortly before he died, Inouye transmitted a personal message to Gov. Neil Abercrombie, a fellow Democrat, asking that he name Rep. Colleen Hanabusa as his replacement, calling her his "one and only choice." It's very hard to see how Abercrombie could deny the wishes of a dying man, particularly one as revered in Hawaii as Inouye, and especially since Abercrombie confirmed that Inouye was of sound mind when he made his request.

What's more, Hawaii law requires that a successor hail from the same political party as the senator he or she is replacing, and the leadership of the Hawaii Democratic Party will provide three names to Abercrombie, which he can then choose from. So presumably Hanabusa's name will wind up on that very short list.

It's easy to play Great Mentioner nonetheless—theoretically, Abercrombie has plenty of options, such as Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz, former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, Rep.-elect Tulsi Gabbard, or even himself. But as I say, I can't really imagine Abercrombie playing the maverick here. (Hanabusa and Sen.-elect Mazie Hirono reportedly have a frosty relationship, but surely that's not reason enough for Abercrombie to spurn Inouye.) Of course, anything can happen—and sometimes it does. Like they say about baseball, this is why they play the games.

(One side-note: Whoever does receive the appointment would then have to run again in 2014 for the final two years of Inouye's term—and then again in 2016 for a full term. But in a state as solidly blue as Hawaii, Republicans have virtually no shot, particularly when their best possible candidate, ex-Gov. Linda Lingle, got crushed by 63-37 by Hirono earlier this year.)

And if Hanabusa does get elevated to the Senate, then that will trigger a special election in her 1st District seat—the second such special for this seat in three years. Ordinarily, I'd expect a ton of names to come out of the woodwork for a safely blue open seat, but as we saw earlier this year when HI-02 was open thanks to Hirono's Senate run, interest was a lot lower than you might predict. So we could see a free-for-all, or we might see a much smaller affair. We'll just have to wait and see. (Let's just pray ex-Rep. Ed Case does not attempt yet another comeback.)

Incidentally, if you are interested in some trivia about Inouye's long career, UMN's Smart Politics blog catalogs the extraordinary 412 fellow senators who served alongside Inouye during his 49-year tenure. And with Inouye's passing and the imminent retirement of Hawaii's junior senator, Dan Akaka, that would leave New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg as the only World War II veteran in the Senate. Also of note: As the senior-most senator following the death of Robert Byrd of West Virginia, Inouye had been president pro tempore of the Senate (and thus third in the line of presidential succession). Now that honor will fall to Vermont's Patrick Leahy.

9:46 AM PT: MI-Gov: Kablammo! There go GOP Gov. Rick Snyder's approval ratings and his standing for re-election. PPP:

Just last month when we took a first look at the 2014 landscape we talked about how much Rick Snyder had improved his popularity during his second year in office and how he led a generic Democrat for reelection by 6 points, even as Barack Obama won the state comfortably.

Last week he threw all that out the window.

We now find Snyder as one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Only 38% of voters approve of him to 56% who disapprove. There are only 2 other sitting Governors we've polled on who have a worse net approval rating than Snyder's -18. He's dropped a net 28 points from our last poll on him, the weekend before the election, when he was at a +10 spread (47/37).

Three words are to blame here: right to work. Well, of course, Snyder himself is to blame: After telling the state of Michigan that he would not push through anti-union and anti-worker "right to work" legislation (that Orwellian epithet really means "right to work for less"), he went ahead and did exactly that during a shameful lame-duck session of the legislature. (Michigan Republicans lost seats this November, so they wanted to force a vote while they still had greater numbers.) Overall, voters oppose RTW 51-41, and a similar 49-40 margin says they'd vote to overturn the law if given the chance at the ballot box.

And now for the really fun stuff. If Snyder does indeed run for a second term—something he previously said he might not do—well, he'd get pummeled, if his fortunes don't somehow turn around. Here's how he does against a passel of possible contenders:

38-49 vs. 2010 nominee Virg Bernero
39-47 vs. Rep. Gary Peters
38-46 vs. state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer
39-44 vs. ex-Rep. Mark Schauer
Note that ceiling of 38 to 39 percent for Snyder: All of his potential opponents are unknown to half the state, even Bernero. That means, at least right now, voters are really thinking "anyone but Snyder." Hell, as Tom Jensen points out, Bernero lost by 18 points in 2010, so these new numbers constitute a remarkable 29-point reversal of fortune.

Don't be thinking recall, though: Voters still oppose the notion 48-44, and as we saw in Wisconsin, those numbers tend to get worse over time, not better. And Tom also notes that Snyder's bounced back before: He started his term in office with an abysmal 33-50 job approval score. Now, though, with the midterm election cycle already underway, Democrats and labor unions won't take their boots off Snyder's neck—and hopefully things will stay that way until Nov. 2014.

P.S. Republicans in the legislature are also getting slaughtered over this. They currently have a 31-58 approval rating (versus 46-37 for Democrats), leading to an eye-popping 56-32 lead for Dems on the generic congressional ballot. PPP calls that "one of the most lopsided generic ballots we've ever seen in any state." It's just too bad the next elections are so far off!

11:41 AM PT: We also have what we're calling "preliminary" results for two more states: Maine and Nebraska. These two states, of course, both divide their electoral votes by congressional district, so they're obligated to report presidential results by CD to the electoral college in their "certificates of ascertainment." However, they only provide raw vote totals by district without any kind of county-level breakdowns. Once we've had the chance to crunch those ourselves, we'll remove the "preliminary" label. And as always, you can find out complete chart of presidential results by congressional district here.

1:01 PM PT: AR-Gov: Oops:

Attorney General Dustin McDaniel (D) said he had an "inappropriate" "limited interaction" with a Hot Springs attorney in 2011, but details of an alleged affair are limited. [...]

McDaniel, who married his current wife, Bobbi, in 2009, released a statement today that read:

"With respect to Ms. Davis, I met her during the 2010 campaign. I had limited interaction with her in 2011, some of which I regret to say was inappropriate. I have no knowledge of the other allegations contained in this pleading.

My wife Bobbi and I love each other very much. I have been candid with her about this matter, and with much prayer, we have moved on with our life together. I hope the people of Arkansas will also accept my apology and know how honored I am to work for them everyday," said McDaniel.

I guess McDaniel, who just released a poll last week showing him as the Democratic frontrunner in the gubernatorial race, wouldn't be the first person to run for governor of Arkansas who had an extramarital affair. But, ah, methinks the demographics of the state have changed a good bit since the Big Dog was running the show.

2:31 PM PT: SC-01: We have a few more Republican names emerging for the special election that'll be necessary to fill Rep. Tim Scott's seat once he ascends to the Senate next year. Hilariously, disgraced ex-Gov. Mark Sanford says he's "studying" a bid; just the other week, he said he was looking at a potential run for the DeMint seat, so obviously no quantum of shame will keep Sanford out of public life. Meanwhile, one candidate has already said he's definitely in: Teddy Turner, son of gazillionaire media chieftain Ted Turner. Aside from his famous family name (which is not necessarily a boon, as pops is considered pretty liberal), Turner, a high school economics teacher, is more or less a Some Dude.

Finally, The Hotline mentions a couple more possibilities: Scott's chief of staff, Joe McKeown (who's also a former Charleston County Council member) and Charleston-area Solicitor Duffie Stone (solicitor is South Carolina's version of a prosecutor, and Stone oversees five counties). For a long list of other potential candidates, see the lead item here.

3:40 PM PT: MI-11: I think it's safe to say that no Republican member of the incoming 113th Congress is more likely to get primaried—and more vulnerable to such a challenge—than Kerry Bentivolio, the reindeer farmer with a history of mental instability who won a super-flukey race to replace ex-Rep. Thad McCotter. To that end, Roll Call's Shira Toeplitz takes an early look at some potential contenders and suggests businessman David Trott, former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski, and outgoing state Rep. Marty Knollenberg as possibles.

Knollenberg (son of ex-Rep. Joe Knollenberg, who used to represent the old 9th) says he'd "certainly look at it" if supporters encourage him to do so. Meanwhile, Trott, you may recall, considered a write-in campaign of his own after McCotter's ballot access debacle but quickly decided against it, even though a lot of Republicans wanted him to get in. And Raczkowski, who also once ran in the 9th (losing in 2010 to the guy who had defeated Knollenberg, Gary Peters) had contemplated a write-in bid as well.

While we're at it, we might as well play Great Mentioner ourselves and round up the other potential saviors whose names popped up after the McCotter implosion: There's state Sen. Mike Kowall, who briefly ran against McCotter in the primary (when McCotter still appeared to be a valid candidate); former Oakland County GOP chair Paul Welday; former state Sen. Loren Bennett, who did wage his own write-in campaign for about half a minute; and of course, former state Sen. Nancy Cassis, the consensus write-in option of the local GOP establishment who got blasted by Bentivolio in the primary. Cassis seemed pretty disheartened by her loss and is also almost 70 years old, so I'd be surprised to see her try again.

4:27 PM PT: WI-Gov: Did the failure of the Wisconsin recall damage Democratic chances of defeating Gov. Scott Walker at the regularly-scheduled 2014 election? It very will may have, as Jason Stein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel finds Team Blue coming up short in terms of willing recruits. Ex-Sen. Russ Feingold and Rep. Ron Kind are probably at the top of the list, but they haven't said a word and in fact didn't respond to the paper's questions about a potential run; Stein suggests both might prefer to wait until 2016 when the man who defeated Feingold, Sen. Ron Johnson, faces his first re-election battle.

So where does that leave the Dems? Stein runs through a few second-tier possibles: Madison biotech executive Kevin Conroy; Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca; state Sen. Jon Erpenbach; Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson; and Dane County Executive Joe Parisi; and firefighter union president Mahlon Mitchell, who ran for lt. governor during the recall. All of these names are only at Great Mentioner stage, except for Parisi and Mitchell, who aren't ruling anything out but don't sound gung-ho.

4:37 PM PT: IA-Sen, -Gov: While uber-wingnut Rep. Steve King still contemplates a run against Dem Sen. Tom Harkin, Shira Toeplitz mentions two other possible Republican contenders: Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds and state Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey. But note that back in May, Gov. Terry Branstad said he'd actually like Reynolds to succeed him as governor if he doesn't seek re-election in 2014. (And Branstad still hasn't made up his mind: In October, he said he was keeping his "options open," though that was in the context of a fundraiser for his campaign committee, so it sounds like he's leaning toward another run.)

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Comment Preferences

  •  Should We Laugh, or Should We Cry? (3+ / 0-)

    That's the question I feel the need to ask after I read this article about John Catsimatidis, a potential Republican candidate for Mayor of New York. I'm not sure what's the most surprising about what he says. Is it the fact that

    (a) he endorses higher taxes on the rich
    (b) he endorses (a) as long as everyone pays more
    (c) he brings up Hitler murdering Jews in World War II when discussing taxes
    (d) he claims New York hasn't felt this recession/depression
    or
    (e) he claims that 90 percent of the Clinton Democrats he knows voted for Romney?

    Also, what is it with rich guys like him and Donald Trump being unable to get a decent hair cut?

    I kind of hope this guy wins the race. He'd probably lose badly but provide quite a bit of comic relief along the way.

    "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

    by bjssp on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 06:37:53 AM PST

    •  A friend of my family's father was a self made (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      millionaire.  He strongly believed that the Russians were going to invade the country and the first thing they would do was round up everyone like him and shoot them.  At least in those days, such hyperbole was plausible, so there was no need to go Goodwin about marginal tax rates.

      30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

      Truman: "The buck stops here!"
      Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

      by Marcus Graly on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 06:52:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  One of my mother's friends (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, bumiputera, MichaelNY

        used to be fairly well off (there's a complicated and sad story about her and her husband got screwed over/had lots of bad luck by using a lawyer we all know) but now isn't. She's older, like my mom, and in some ways has that sort of cynical mentality like everyone is a bum.* She talks of how Obama is leading us towards socialism and stuff like that, even as she had somewhat nice things to say about him in 2008 and does things like voting for Cuomo because "the other guy was a nutcase." I am pretty sure this is where my mother gets this stuff from. I don't agree, obviously, but at least I can understand where she's coming from. She's from what used to be Czechoslovakia, and has actually lived through history, i.e. being able to recall how the Communists came into her elementary school and taught her to shoot a gun, being separated from her family as political strife was happening, and so on.

        *Except for me, it seems. The first time I met her was when I was in high school. I started to talk politics with her and apparently made a great first impression. It's like a Ray and Marie Barone situation, where I can do no wrong. She consistently tells me my mom how we need people like me in politics, specifically the White House. Looks like I've got one strong supporter if I run for office. :]

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:03:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I read a story about a year or so ago about a (4+ / 0-)

          Czechoslovakian (I am part Czech, btw) who said that he lived under socialism, an knows it, and Obama is NOT a socialist. I remember hims saying about people on TV were told they coulnd't say this or that, and everything was heavily controlled and dictated by the central government.

          Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

          by WisJohn on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:14:25 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Honestly, I think it's one of those (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, hankmeister, JBraden, MichaelNY

            situations where she's just getting older and more bitter and cynical about the world, more so than anything else.

            "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

            by bjssp on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:29:14 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Probably. I see some of that in my 87 year old (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

              grandmother. She was happy when Tommy Thompson didn't win, but she doesn't seem as committed to Democrats like she was in the past. I'm sure she still votes straight D, because that's all she's ever done, and she does not change easily in old age.

              Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

              by WisJohn on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:39:41 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  my grandmother is almost a decade younger (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                JBraden, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

                and didn't become a Democrat until after I was born and my grandfather (a staunch conservative Republican, from the collar counties of Cincinnati) passed.  She was raised a Republican, but a progressive one.  She probably has never been a more enthusiastic Democrat than now.  She can't stand Republicans anymore.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:06:39 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  My grandma's father voted for Hoover in 1932. (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin, James Allen, JBraden, MichaelNY

                  He was a staunch Republican. Her mother voted for Roosevelt case she felt the country needed a big change. She told my grandma, "Now don't tell your dad." Don't think my grandma ever did. I also don't know if my great-grandmoter continued to vote Dem after that or not. I should ask my grandma.

                  Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

                  by WisJohn on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:31:49 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I have no idea what that is like (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    JBraden, jncca, MichaelNY

                    I have to go back to my Great-Grandparents to find someone who has ever voted for a Democrat for President. And they were from Alabama. :P

                    28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

                    by bumiputera on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:47:08 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  My dad's side of the family is pretty Republican. (4+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      bumiputera, JBraden, WisJohn, MichaelNY

                      I still remember how my late grandpa was in the hospital but voted for Bush in 2000 after my grandma made sure he was able to do so. I assume she was the same way, although oddly enough, her friend/boyfriend after he died (LONG and odd story) was a registered Democrat, who in fact was a Navy guy that served with McCain. Not the senator from Arizona, however, but his father! She supposedly switched her registration because of him, but I am not sure.

                      My mom's family is from Rhode Island, so I would imagine they were Democrats. I think I remember her telling me how her dad really liked Harry Truman. I should probably ask her more about this.

                      "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

                      by bjssp on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:46:37 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  My side of the family is quite split (4+ / 0-)

                    I'm pretty sure my maternal grandmother (who is protestant) has never voted for a Democrat for anything and seeing that this is A) the South and B) she's in her 80s, that's a damn impressive claim for anyone of her demographic outside of east Tennessee or southeast central Kentucky.  She's the nicest old lady in the world, but as someone who was a public school teacher for just short of 30 years and as someone who subsides on Social Security and Medicare (and Medicaid too if she didn't think it was for "them") it makes literally zero sense to vote Republican.

                    On the other hand my paternal grandmother is Jewish like that whole side of the family and has almost assuredly voted Democratic her whole life, at least for federal offices.  Ironically she's quite wealthy due to my late grandfather though nowhere close to as obscenely rich as a Romney type, so it's almost as if the two should have opposite voting preferences, but they don't due to their political environment and upbringing.

                    As interesting as our political system and political history are, I can never under-emphasize to others how interesting it can be at times.

                    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

                    by sawolf on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:35:44 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  well of my four grandparents (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  My mom's parents are very religious catholics and go to mass a few times a week. They're republicans and voted for Santorum in the 2012 caucuses. It also helps that they are probably worth a lot of money (grandpa was a neurosurgeon for 30 years). Both of them came from a democrat(ic) family though.

                  Both my dad's parents were Canadian immigrants. His father, who died over twenty years ago, pretty much always went with the winner and his mother is a down-the-line democrat (although she did vote for Reagan).

                  RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

                  by demographicarmageddon on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:05:52 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  Not entirely nuts, but mostly (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Being a millionaire was a capital crime in the USSR, though capital crime doesn't necessarily equal capital punishment.

  •  West Virgina (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, JBraden, MichaelNY

    It seems that the numbers are messed up.

    BTW, Maine and Nebraska, being the only states distributing their EVs by district, have reported the official results by district to National Archive. Maine also has its official results by county online, but Nebraska has not posted any official results yet.

    http://www.archives.gov/...

  •  MA Sen: Dukakis says no to an interim appointment (5+ / 0-)

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 06:40:07 AM PST

  •  So I wonder... (0+ / 0-)

    If you guys can give a report on the reason why some districts are still outstanding.  

    Based upon your cattle call for information, I'm guessing that outstanding counties and towns are the reason why we don't have any results for MA, don't have finalized results for CT, and still don't have some results for AL, IN, MO, MI, OH, PA, and TX.  New York has obviously not certified yet.  But what's the holdup in Kansas, Maine, and New Jersey?  You haven't asked for any help yet with these states, and the results have been certified for awhile now.  

    •  Have you seen statewide, certified (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      County-level results for Kansas? That's the only way we can know if a county's results are actually final — if they match up with the SoS's numbers.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:00:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hrrm...guess not. (0+ / 0-)

        I see Pawnee County was actually on the cattle call last night.  I guess I was confused, because Nebraska had finalized numbers reported last night.

      •  Sometimes they don't even afterward though (0+ / 0-)

        For example, I've been taking every partisan race (i.e. explicitly D vs R so not judicial races in most case) outside of the presidential from 2006 to present and averaging it by county then comparing it to the state average for my "political geography" series and I was looking at Arkansas Land Commissioner since it isn't on Dave Leip's atlas, and what do you know, the county by county numbers don't match up to the statewide numbers on the SOS's own site for 2006.  It seems not all SOS offices are as efficient as states like mine that use ENR.

        I'll probably call their office sometime and ask about the discrepancy, but you would think they'd at least be able match up the county results vs. statewide.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:41:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  So it seems Inouye's wish in the hospital (5+ / 0-)

    was for Abercrombie to appoint Hanabusa.  I knew they were close, but if her appointment is one of his last requests, the choice is clear.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:08:44 AM PST

  •  MI-Gov: Snyder's numbers in the shitter (11+ / 0-)

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:12:58 AM PST

    •  Ouch! (4+ / 0-)

      I didn't think the rtw thing would have such a powerful effect on him.  Yeah, he'll recover some (like Christie's numbers will sink as the memories of Sandy fade), but it's still a good sign for 2014.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:14:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I feel confident now even if Levin retires (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, WisJohn, JBraden, MichaelNY

        we'll hold that seat, and still flip the Governors mansion. Even though Michigan leans Democratic, it was risky having a Democratic open senate seat with a Republican Governor in the middle of a labor fight. Had the same concerns in Wisconsin this past cycle when Kohl decided to retire in the middle of the Walker fiasco.

        Bright side is that since 1972 Michigan Republicans have only won 2 senate races in Michigan. Levin knocked off Robert P. Griffin who was Minority Whip at the time. And Stabenow knocking off Spence Abraham, who won in the Republican Revolution of '94.
         

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:28:08 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's a loooooonnng time until 2014. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingTag, MichaelNY

          That's what worries me the most--that this will fade as an issue as time goes on. I'd love to be wrong, because it seems possible to (a) have this overturned by initiative, which unless the legislature becomes even more Republican means it's not gonna come back, (b) make significant gains in the legislature and flip the governor's mansion in the process, which is good in its own right but further cements the notion that the RTW stuff is gone, and (c) use the fire under our asses to make gains at the federal level. But time heals a lot of wounds.

          "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

          by bjssp on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:35:32 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know why people keeping bringing this up (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Levin is not retiring. He's not super old by Senate standards, he's made no indication of wanting to retire, and he's Chair of the freaking Armed Services committee.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:04:06 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Economy will be much better in 2014... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, MichaelNY

        The new bridge between Detroit and Windsor Canada will be being built as well (10,000+ jobs).  Snyder will say the tough decisions he had to make are responsible for the economy rebound and voters will believe him.  

        The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

        by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:40:16 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, I said he would recover some (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, JBraden, MetroGnome, MichaelNY

          but he did do damage to himself (and supposedly may not run for re-election as some claim).  Even so, the economy has recovered immensely in MI over the past 3 years and his numbers still sunk after this.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:44:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Again That is What Campaigns Are For (0+ / 0-)

          He can recover in polls and it won't matter a damn if there is a multi million add campaign reminding people of the things that he has done. Plus a great filed campaign turning out labor voters.

    •  quick, someone flush. n/t (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, bumiputera, JBraden, MichaelNY

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:15:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Snyder won big in 2010 on crossover appeal... (6+ / 0-)

      ...and now, in one lame-duck session, all of the crossover appeal that Synder built up is gone.

      Reminds me a lot of Mary Bono Mack's 2012 congressional campaign in California.

      Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:29:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  He has a Dem who ran in 2010 Dem primary (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      in his cabinet somewhere right?  Did that person have the courage to quit when Snyder went full teabagger?

      The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:37:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Request (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, MichaelNY

      Please do not use the Twitter embed function, as it wreaks havoc on mobile browsers on Daily Kos. Thank you.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 04:56:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  He will recover... (4+ / 0-)

      ...if for no other reason than that the economy here will recover as it has since the last year of Granholm's administration.

      BUT, the there is no way in hell it'll be enough to get him beyond the "toss up" category.  He completely broke the trust with parts of his winning coalition.  He'll get back some of the independents he lost with his lies, but nowhere near enough where he'll be favored to win.

      He's done a bad, bad thing.  In fact, RTW was the crown jewel, the cherry on top.  Some people held out hopes even as he was signing right-wing bullshit that this wasn't really him or that he'd eventually stand up to his right wing.  That perception is completely vanished, now.  The bloom is off the rose, and if Snyder wants to run, again, he's going to have to run the race of hislife to stick around.

  •  Does any one remember about what time (3+ / 0-)

    on election night that this happened? It was after 9:30 EST, because that is when Obama won WI, and Rachel said that that had already occurred. I watched mostly watched MSNBC on the big night, switching to Fox every now and then to watch their heads explode, or to other networks, but I missed this. Can anyone help me out?

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

    by WisJohn on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:32:34 AM PST

  •  So, Chet Edwards 2014 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, MichaelNY

    for his old seat? (half-snark)

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

    by WisJohn on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:43:02 AM PST

  •  MI-Gov matchups (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:02:42 AM PST

  •  New York Senate Democrats have chosen (7+ / 0-)

    Andrea Stewart-Cousins to be their new leader.

    http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:28:01 AM PST

  •  HI-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    Who would Abercrombie appoint for the Senate seat?  Hanabusa seems like the only high-profile progressive option.  

    I'm utterly baffled by all of the absolutely terrible options Hawaii has for being such a progressive state.  You constantly have to worry about a conservative/centrist/questionable Dem (Case, Hannemann, Gabbard) or a "moderate" Republican (Lingle, Djou, Aiona) sneaking through.

    •  HI-01 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      I'm catching up from other threads...sounds like Hanabusa is pretty much a guarantee.  So who would run for her HI-01 seat in the special election?  I find it really hard to believe Ed Case would sit out an election, despite his consecutive losses.  I just really hope Hawaiians don't have to choose between Case and Hannemann.  Ugh.  But these are the most high-profile options, and in a short special election cycle, it's harder for lesser-known candidates to get traction, so it's hard to see it going down any other way.

  •  Cory Booker reportedly leaning towards Senate run (9+ / 0-)

    link

    This would make a lot of sense, assuming Lautenberg retires.

    I've said before, Christie's approvals were decent even pre-Sandy, so that will be a difficult race for any Dem.

    Booker would be a strong candidate for Senate, but I doubt he would get a clear field. I imagine at least one US House rep would run.

  •  Also from PPP on MI: (7+ / 0-)
    There's not much doubt that it's the right to work law and his embrace of other actions by the Republican legislature that are driving this precipitous drop in Snyder's popularity. Only 41% of voters in the state support the right to work legislation, while 51% are opposed to it. If voters got to decide the issue directly only 40% of them say they would vote to keep the law enacted, while 49% would vote to overturn it. This comes on the heels of voters overturning Snyder's signature emergency managers law last month. The simple reality is that Michigan voters like unions- 52% have a favorable opinion of them to only 33% with a negative one.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:48:12 AM PST

    •  The numbers are there (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PassionateJus, JBraden, MichaelNY

      Do an initiative

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:52:27 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I believe they added some appropriations spending (0+ / 0-)

        that blocks it for being voted on.  

        The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

        by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:07:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It is possible (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, JBraden, MichaelNY

          to pass something overturning it with the right amount of signatures.  I forget the exact process; it's a bit more circuituous than a direct initiative but ultimately has the same result.

          And that's assuming that it isn't overturned by a challenge that the shitheads in the legislature violated laws by not holding adequate hearings.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:11:32 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  What's that in your last sentence? (0+ / 0-)

            Is there a case in the works that they broke the law?

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:14:09 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  In last Thursday's digest (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JBraden, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

              David Jarman wrote:

              "One solution that labor is already pushing is challenging the law through the courts on open meeting law grounds, seeing as how the bill was accomplished without public hearings."

              He also explains how it can be overturned through public vote, even with an appropriation added.

              37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

              by Mike in MD on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:30:59 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Not true. We've already been through this... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          Yes, it blocks a citizen's veto (which also makes the law unenforceable in the meantime), BUT there is an initiative process that allows people to vote on an alternative bill (like repeal legislation) and if they pass it, the legislature can only stop it with a 75% margin, which is impossible.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:11:39 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Any word on when they plan to start the process (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        of a ballot initiative to put a repeal bill up for a vote?

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:12:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  That's the state where unions began (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, LordMike, MichaelNY

      so I'm not surprise ppl in Michigan are sensitive when it come to that issue. Especially what Obama did for the auto industry, and what happened in return? Obama molly-whopped Romney in Michigan by 10, and Stabenow crushed Hoekstra like a bug.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:54:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also Snyder and GOP just put another Emerg Manager (4+ / 0-)

      bill in place - That's shady as hell as well and should be another constant attack point.  The key for Dems will be to not let folks forget about this hyper-partisan and anti-democratic lame duck session.  

      Also Dems will need to constantly make the case that the federal action is what is turning around Mi economy - the auto bailout that GOP didn't want, and the eventual bridge that the Granholm did all the work for and the GOP blocked for years and years.  Snyder will run hard on the bridge in two years, as he'll be able to say "see I'm not a partisan, I bucked the GOP and got it done because it was right for Michigan".  

      The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:10:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hopefully (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, LordMike, MichaelNY

      the legislators and governors in PA and WI who are considering their own hyper-partisan moves (right-to-work and electoral college shenanigans) are taking notice. Of course,  as far as they're concerned PPP is just a massively biased Democrat pollster...

    •  I'm happy and hope they can sustain (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Walker never had numbers this bad in Wisconsin, so it's not analogous, it's clear Michigan voters are more pro-labor than Wisconsin voters and this stuff matters.

      But that doesn't mean it still can't peeter out in a couple years' time.  So they're going to have to keep hammering away, sustaining the messaging in every way possible.  And the national party needs to help, especially since getting a Democratic Governor elected in this state in November 2014 should be a top priority anyway.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:53:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  New WaPo poll: Obama approval 54/42 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    and lots of other interesting data on fiscal cliff, social safety net programs, etc.

    Poll data:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Article:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    •  Obama has had a good few weeks (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      I am still curious if this is going to be a trendlines.shift, or just the run of the mill poat-election bump

      •  So far it's just a bump (10+ / 0-)

        But there's nothing that says a bump can't become lasting as the result of accomplishing something that makes people feel good about him.

        The fiscal cliff is a big thing that way.

        The truth is he's got all the leverage he needs to get what he wants, including the court of public opinion on policy.  They don't want entitlement cuts and do want tax hikes on the rich.  He's not going to force everything he wants, but he can get more of it than this dealmaking supposedly has offered both ways.

        But then there are a couple other things going on.

        First, he's sincerely worried that near-term austerity can sink the economy, and of course the sequester and tax rate reversion combo potentially risks that......I'm less convinced than some who get lots of media play, and I certainly think the tax rates don't matter much even if expiring on everyone, not just the rich, but that's neither here nor there because I'm just some dude at a keyboard.  Obama fears we have a still sluggish economy that can't afford a fiscal hit anytime soon, and I think that's a main driver in his chess moves on this.

        Second, he's got other agenda items he doesn't want torpedoed by burying Boehner in a way that destroys his image with his own caucus.  Obama could force everything, yes, and Boehner most likely would surrender at the last moment on taxes, entitlement benefits, the debt ceiling......but he'd be emasculated in his own caucus in the process, could be forced out as Speaker or at least told he's no longer more than a leader on paper, he'd have no juice to cut deals on immigration or guns (not that I think a deal on guns is even possible, but I think after Newtown Obama is committed to trying) or anything else.

        And then all the idiots on DK main will complain Obama was weak not to "twist arms" on immigration and guns and whatever else they think can just be had by wishing hard enough, and they'll use Boehner's capitulation on the fiscal cliff and related matters as "proof" that his arm can be "twisted."  Alas, too many liberals don't understand what real leverage is, which is support for one's side from the balance of public opinion, which is more than our echo chamber.

        Obama can't afford to have Boehner lose all his juice on this fiscal stuff.  He needs Boehner to remain influential in his own caucus.  That is maddening, but it's a political reality Obama faces.  If he doesn't help Boehner that way, and Boehner is toast, then we have no choice but to try to win the House back for Obama to have any chance of accomplishing anything in his second term after early 2013.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:41:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The President wants an effective second term (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera
          Obama can't afford to have Boehner lose all his juice on this fiscal stuff.  He needs Boehner to remain influential in his own caucus.
          And he needs Boehner for the next four years, barring an unprecedented miracle in '14.

          I think this bears repeating

          And then all the idiots on DK main will complain Obama was weak not to "twist arms" on immigration and guns and whatever else they think can just be had by wishing hard enough, and they'll use Boehner's capitulation on the fiscal cliff and related matters as "proof" that his arm can be "twisted."  Alas, too many liberals don't understand what real leverage is, which is support for one's side from the balance of public opinion, which is more than our echo chamber.
          Though I would not have used the word "idiots" to describe users on the DK main page...

          Well, I would not use the word "racist" to describe working-class southern white voters either...

          I hope; therefore, I can live.

          by tietack on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:16:20 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Rec'd for the analysis (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera

          even though it's arguably a bit off in places for a DKE thread.

          But I think you're right about the economy, in that it's stronger than two years ago but still not to the point that it can necessarily survive a complete fall over the "fiscal cliff" (at least if nothing is done to fix it over time.)  I get annoyed reading diaries and comments from so-called progressives who seem to relish not compromising and falling off the cliff to make a point, regardless of its effect on the economy.  

          Poltically, if the fiscal cliff were to happen polls may well be right and the GOP would get most of the blame, but it would be much better for all, economically, if we didn't and so a good deal of give and take from all sides is helpful.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:18:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Let's see where that goes after Fiscal Cliff (0+ / 0-)

      sellout.  Spending post-election political capital on cutting entitlements - brilliant.  

      It would have been much better spent on Immigration Reform.

      The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:12:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not to worry. (5+ / 0-)

        Democrats rejected Boehner's offer and Boehner rejected the counteroffer, so we're back on track to just go over the damn hill already and stop this stupid dance.  A bucket of cold water is all it is.  Run ads blaming the Republicans for intransigence after new years.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:17:38 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think they were talking about the "Plan B" (0+ / 0-)

          Boehner offered, though ultimately some Plan B will be necessary.

          And if you're saying that going over the "fiscal cliff" would be a good thing, I heartily disagree, especially if it weren't fixed quickly.  But that's a subject for another thread (and I usually don't like reading or participating in main page policy threads.)

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:16:07 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  This is the one with chained CPI for SS, which (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Corker supposedly said was DOA, or something else?

          "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

          by bjssp on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:48:48 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm no policy expert, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          but it seems like there are many easy ways to raise some serious cash and cut some spending, if they were serious about it. I've got a couple of ideas about how to do this, but unless I am told otherwise, I'll refrain from sharing them here, so as to not divert the conversation yet again.

          I will simply say that I hope someone asks me, because I'd love to share and see if the estimates I've read are way too optimistic. It almost seems like have to be, and I'd like to be sure either way.

          "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

          by bjssp on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:53:31 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  You're talking like (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        uclabruin18, jj32, JBraden, madmojo, MichaelNY

        some deal has been reached that slows the inflation adjustment of social security.  That deal was rejected, I believe.  heard it on npr this morning

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:19:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think he is thinking of immigration reform (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think Obama is trying to get a grand bargain to avoid having to deal with the debt ceiling again early next year.

        I think they know they have like 6-7 months, between Inauguration Day and the August recess to get immigration reform done.

        Not an endorsement of the strategy, but I think that's the logic of it.

        •  Or he feels immigration will be an easy sell... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I mean it will be very easy to paint the GOP as extremists if he puts out a reasonable, firm but fair type of reform only to have the House GOP raise a huge stink and try to pull it far right.  Maybe they try this late 2013 or early 2014 - but folks might see he's playing political games with it just the same.  

          But if GOP House won't pass it unless it's draconian than Pres Obama could walk away and say "Listen here was my offer and the Dem's in the House and Senate would pass it - give me a congress in 2014 if you want this very bill passed".

          The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

          by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:44:41 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Akin pushing amendment to make LGBT bullying (18+ / 0-)

    immune to disciplinary action in the military:
    http://thinkprogress.org/...

    Thank G-d this chode is done for.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:22:47 AM PST

  •  anyone know why Hirono and Hanabusa (4+ / 0-)

    don't get along?

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:24:21 AM PST

    •  They ran against each other in 2006. (8+ / 0-)

      When Ed Case retired, Hanabusa and Hirono both ran for the open congressional seat. Hirono won by just a few hundred votes over Hanabusa. I would imagine that such a toughly fought campaign contributes to the acrimony.

      18, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF sophomore, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

      by tqycolumbia on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:30:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hanabusa will probably get seniority (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      over Hirono now as well.  That's interesting in itself if things are frosty between them.  

      The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:40:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I find it unlikely that Hanabusa (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, tietack, MichaelNY

        will get appointed before Hirono is sworn in. Like ndrw mentioned in the standalone post, Hirono just went through a Senate campaign, and she could end up being beaten in seniority by a few days just because of an act of God? Doesn't seem fair.

        Plus, there's the mechanics of the thing. Abercrombie can't appoint anyone until the state party sends him a list (which will be Hanabsua and two other yahoos, perhaps to build a profile for running in HI-01 special), and we're less than a week from Christmas. It's most likely they're sworn in within a day of each other, but Hirono will be first, or at least she should be.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:48:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That does seem like the fair thing (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bear83, HoosierD42, tietack, MichaelNY

          Then again, Sen. Reid may want a quick appointment so the Democrats re-up for the debt ceiling fight.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:51:08 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  And before that fight (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack, MichaelNY

            there's the filibuster rules fight. We need all hands on deck for that one.

            Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

            by bear83 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:56:53 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  What happens to a Senate vacancy (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BlueWisconsin

            if the Senator hasn't been sworn in? Can Abercrombie appoint Hirono to this seat (so she serves alongside Akaka), and then appoint Hanabusa to the now vacant Class 1 seat?

            28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

            by bumiputera on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:57:29 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's just making things too complicated. (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SaoMagnifico, bumiputera, tietack

              24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

              by HoosierD42 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:58:53 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I think Hirono would rather be the Junior Senator. (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SaoMagnifico, bumiputera, R30A

              She'd have to face reelection twice in the next 4 years.

              20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:59:40 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  To maximize seniority and fairness (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera

              This could actually work. Hirono would serve in Inouye's seat until January 3, then would be sworn into Akaka's seat for the next six years. This would create a new vacancy for the Inouye seat that Hanabusa could be appointed to. Of course it would only work if state law allows the party to submit a list and the governor to make an appointment in advance of an anticipated vacancy, like in South Carolina, so Hanabusa would be ready to go on day 1 for filibuster reform. The advantage of this option is that Hirono gets seniority over everyone else in the freshman class (good for Hawaii) and the "fair" relative seniority between Hirono and Hanabusa is preserved.

              Of course, we could wait and have both start on January 3, but the possible disadvantage of that for Democrats is if Reid needs the extra vote in the lame duck session for fiscal cliff votes, and the disadvantage to Hawaii is that neither Senator would get a leg up on seniority by starting before the rest of the freshman class.

              There's one other option that would accomplish the same thing and be even better for Hawaii, but Akaka would have to go along with it. Akaka could resign now, allowing Hirono to be appointed early to his seat (and be first in seniority) and Hanabusa to also be appointed to Akaka's seat before January 3. This could preserve their relative seniority put them both at the head of the freshman class. It's not at all unprecedented for a Senator to resign early to give his/her (usually) same party successor a leg up in seniority (though it is certainly not the norm). It would make perfect sense in Hawaii, which is seniority-conscious like Alaska and West Virginia have been, and especially in this instance (assuming Hanabusa is in fact appointed to the vacancy, Hawaii will be represented entirely by freshmen in both the House and the Senate in the next Congress, losing both Akaka and Inouye simultaneously, as well as what little seniority Hirono and Hanabusa each had in the House).

              •  I believe there is a fix (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera

                so if Akaka were to leave early and the elected Hirono were to be appointed in his place, she would still have the same seniority as if Akaka were to stay.

                Now, if Hanabusa were to be appointed to replace Akaka for the last few days of his term, perhaps she would get the leg up?
                I don't think there is any chance of this happening, just pondering aloud if you will...

                Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

                by R30A on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 04:22:13 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  And no one can be sworn in ... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          ... unless the Senate is in session.

        •  It is (slightly) beneficial to Hawaii (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          for Hirono to takes office Jan 3, as if as it seems he will, Tim Scott takes office that day, she will be ahead of him. Hanabusa would be behind him. Hirono has 4 years on Hanabusa(and Scott), and house seniority only matters for those sworn in on the same day.

          As Hawaii is smaller than South Carolina, Hanabusa will be behind Scott if they are sworn in on the same day.

          What is beneficial for the state is for Hanabusa to take office as soon as possible so she can be ahead of the rest of the new senators in seniority. (Similar to what happened with Feinstein/Boxer.)  

          Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

          by R30A on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 01:59:06 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I hope Inouye's successor (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        (who will almost certainly be Hanabusa) isn't sworn in until Jan. 3...then Hirono will get seniority due to her longer service in Congress.

        •  It's worth noting, in terms of seniority, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          that both Hirono and Hanabusa are already in their 60s, which means that neither of them are likely to have time to accumulate anywhere near as much seniority as Inouye or Akaka, and may never chair a committee. If Hirono (who is older by 4 years) serves 3 terms, she will be 83. This also means that Tulsi Gabbard could have a chance to run for Senate by the time she is in her late 40s or early 50s.

  •  Florida State Rep. who made it harder to vote (7+ / 0-)

    said that his inspiration was a 2010 Gainesville election where college students came out in droves to elect an openly gay mayor:
    http://thinkprogress.org/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:26:47 AM PST

    •  You know, I can (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat, bumiputera

      see the point in the argument that the interests of college students and more permanent residents might not align. I can also understand the argument how a much smaller election that might have a larger-than-normal number of college students voting could skew the results in a way that throws things out of whack to some degree. But unless these people violated some law, it's not stealing an election. It's at least as valid as Republicans using anti-gay marriage amendments to turn out voters in 2004.

      If someone wants to make an argument that their views aren't the right ones and that their interests aren't the same as those of long-time residents, they should make that case. It's a valid point, and in fact it might make a good argument against an opponent. Coming up with arguments that the election was stolen, when you admit don't have any proof of what happened, is just bullshit.

      "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

      by bjssp on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:41:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  This Is A Scary, BS Argument (5+ / 0-)

        The college students did not steal the election. They live there for two or four or more years. That is enough to understand local issues. The only thing that should be illegal is if they voted in two counties at the same time. That is not happening.

        I've seen studies where an average American lives an average of five years in their residence these days. There is a huge percentage of the American electorate which moves around these days.

        I have voted in every single election since I turned 18 twenty years ago, from presidential to school bonds. I have never missed an election. I have always educated myself regarding local issues as well. I have lived in CA, OR, WA, VA, PA (for 4 months) and, ironically, Gainesville, FL. I lived there for 9 months and voted in two local elections while there.

        What, I shouldn't get a chance to vote because I might move on?

        That's almost like saying that people who don't pay property taxes shouldn't be able to vote on tax measures.

        No way. That is undemocratic in the worse way.

        •  College students can take a strong interest... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          And make a strong impact on the place they attend school. Take Rep.-elect Swalwell, for instance; he attended my alma mater and sat on the College Park City Council as a student representative. Swalwell cut his teeth getting involved in local politics and education as a college student attending school across the country from where he grew up and would eventually settle (and represent in Congress, at that). I think it's a tough sell to say college students should be disenfranchised because they're only in town for school.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 11:30:42 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I most certainly was not saying they shouldn't (0+ / 0-)

            have the right to vote.

            "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

            by bjssp on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:21:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not for denying them the chance to vote. (0+ / 0-)

          I'm simply saying that I wouldn't be surprised if these people are voting for anyone with a "D" next to his or her name. You might not necessarily do that, but a lot of people might do it.

          Of course, the proper response is, so what? It doesn't matter if one politician or the other likes the reasons people vote for one person or the other.  That's what I was trying to get at.

          "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

          by bjssp on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:21:13 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Honestly, considering the state (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            of the Modern Republican Party, it's probably pretty reasonable to vote for most anyone with a D next to their name.

            And I'm not sure about Gainesville, bot alot of local elections are nominally nonpartisan, which means you have to research who the Democrats and Republicans are.

      •  College students are members of our communities (6+ / 0-)

        And I'm sick and tired on conservative assholes trying to say we aren't and take away our voice. We live in the community for four years, which as as much time as many people stay in one place in the adult world. We have to follow local laws and pay property taxes just like everyone else through or room and board or rent. The fact that Rep Baxley thinks that University of Florida students aren't part of the Gainsville Community when they make up 40% of the city's population is particularly insulting. Or does he think we should go back to the day when only white make property owners could vote?

    •  We need a Supreme Court (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      that annuls all these laws that are meant to deny voting rights. That's one of the reasons it's vital to have Democrats in the White House and the Senate.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 03:22:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  President pro tempore trivia (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, MichaelNY

    In honor of Leahy's ascension I have two trivia questions, delved from Wikipedia's list.

    The number of Presidents pro tempore from a given state is a moderately close proxy for how long that state has been in the union.  
    Name the following:

    - The state that has been in the union the longest without one of its Senators serving as President pro tempore.

    - The state most recently admitted to the union from which more than one Senator has served as President pro tempore.



    Since these are admittedly very difficult questions, I provide the following hints: The first is (today) a large swing state and the second had a controversial admission to union.

    30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

    Truman: "The buck stops here!"
    Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

    by Marcus Graly on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:44:43 AM PST

  •  New PVIs (4+ / 0-)

    https://docs.google.com/...

    AL-5: R+17 from R+14

    TX-10: R+11
    TX-17: R+13 from R+12

    WV-1: R+13 from R+9
    WV-2: R+11 from R+8
    WV-3: R+15 from R+6

    Also, we've now got NE numbers:
    http://www.archives.gov/...

    NE-1: R+10 from R+11
    NE-2: R+4 from R+6
    NE-3: R+23

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:57:28 AM PST

  •  Re: Rahall vs. Matheson. (4+ / 0-)

    Between Rahall's far greater seniority, West Virginia's far greater Democratic tradition, and the Partisan Propensity Index consideration that Democrats apparently tend to out-perform better in poorer areas (all of which are related!), it's interesting to compare their voting records.  I had thought Rahall was far to the left of Matheson, but it's a bit more complicated than I thought.  

    Here are the OpenCongress-highlighted votes.  They've differed on a few too many to copy and paste, but there are some patterns.  Rahall backed TARP, Obamacare, the "Responsible Redeployment from Iraq Act", the "Grayson-Himes Pay For Performance Act", a bill that I think purports to close a tax loophole for rich people, and Bush's stimulus, and opposed CISPA (if that's your thing) and the Peru trade bill, while Matheson had the opposite positions.

    But Rahall also opposed a couple of DADT repeals, ENDA, the Chaffetz amendment "restricting whole-body imaging", the Violence Against Women re-authorization, and some stem cell bill.  Actually, barely any Democrats voted to re-authorize VAWA, since apparently Dems preferred the Senate version, so that's probably a liberal vote on Rahall's part.

    They also differed on the recent STEM immigration vote and on a  bill opposing the alleged "gutting of welfare's work requirements"--Matheson supported both and Rahall opposed both.  

    Anyway, overall I still think Rahall is well to Matheson's left, but I suppose Matheson votes to the left of Rahall on LGBT issues and a few other things.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:12:18 AM PST

    •  One important vote (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

      Nick Rahall voted for Nancy Pelosi for speaker in 2010, while Matheson vote for Heath Shuler.  I don't know if Rahall will vote for Pelosi again this time since it seems to be hurting him back in WV, but I believe Rahall and Pelosi are close friends and therefore he is loyal to her.

  •  Feinstein to chair Judiciary (5+ / 0-)

    She will give up Intelligence chair.

    Looks like Rockefeller is next in line on Intel.
    •  Fucking A (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AussieforObama2ndterm, MichaelNY

      Menendez will chair Foreign Relations then...

      Ugh I wish he could have been primaried by Pallone or Holt last cycle.  Utterly way too hawkish to chair foreign relations.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:52:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  So you're assuming Boxer doesn't give up EPW? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, bear83, MichaelNY

        It would make sense, that's her pet issue.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:56:20 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Isn't Boxer next in line? (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42, jj32, bear83, itskevin, MichaelNY

        I know environmental issues are important to her, but so were intelligence issues to Feinstein. The draw of a powerful committee may be to strong.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:56:24 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I mixed them up, though the point still applies (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          (just not for this particular news item).  I am assuming that Boxer keeps Environment and Public Works since like HooosierD42 says, it is her pet issue which makes Menendez Foreign Affairs chair.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

          by sawolf on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:30:19 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  This is what I've been kicking around (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, sawolf, MichaelNY

        Foreign Relations Chair is one of the premier posts in the Senate. She would have a ton more influence and power in the seat, and as she is someone who isn't inherently hawkish, it would probably allow her to have a greater impact on the world.

        If Kerry is chosen...if...I would hope that they work this out ahead of time, and that Boxer becoming chair would be a condition.

      •  he's otherwise a liberal dem (0+ / 0-)

        in the mold of someone like Stephen Solarz.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:25:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sure, but there's no reason to have the (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, MichaelNY

          Democratic senator from New Jersey be significantly to the right of the Democratic mainstream on foreign policy and chair the Foreign Affairs committee.

          Menendez is someone whom I wouldn't put any of my own money (or really even any interest group money) against when it comes to a primary challenge, but if given the chance to have someone more liberal than him I wouldn't hesitate for a second.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

          by sawolf on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:32:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Solarz was a neo-con on foreign policy (0+ / 0-)

          Good comparison, and a very bad person to chair a foreign affairs committee.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 03:30:28 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Wow, I wasn't expecting that (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      I always thought she would stay at Intelligence. I guess this means Leahy took Appropriations, which he would have been a fool to pass up.

      Rockefeller is next in line on Intel., but I think he stays as Commerce chair. Ron Wyden would be next.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:53:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  So Mikulski to Intelligence. (5+ / 0-)

      No longer will she be the most senior Senator to not chair a Senate committee.

      18, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF sophomore, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

      by tqycolumbia on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:56:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wyden is ahead of Mikulski on Intel. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:57:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes he is. (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42, bear83, jj32, MichaelNY

          But he's already slated to chair the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which would otherwise go to Senator Landrieu. Though that would certainly help her with her re-election, I am far more comfortable with Wyden in control than Landrieu. Point being, I hope that Wyden doesn't take Intelligence.

          I hate to speculate, but I can't imagine that Reid will deny Mikulski a gavel if she doesn't already have one, and Wyden seems far more concerned about environmental and energy issues than intelligence issues.

          18, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF sophomore, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

          by tqycolumbia on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 11:05:05 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Wyden is the new chair (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          of the Energy Committee. Or at least he was.

          Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

          by bear83 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 11:06:30 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  It's about time (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        My understanding is she's not well liked at all on the Hill.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 11:44:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Is it true (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

          That most of the people who voted against the Iraq War Resolution also happen to be people without much juice on the Hill? I know that wasn't true of some, like Robert Byrd, though that guy was so sui generis. But it seems like people like Mikulski, Boxer, Feingold, you know, people who had the guts to vote that way, were not part of the club.

          Would make sense, at least. In war, the loners and outsiders are typically the ones least likely to join in should atrocities occur. Peer pressure is a big part of that.

        •  In the staffer's poll (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I think she's consistently voted "Meanest"

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 12:19:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I think it's always been true (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera, SLDemocrat

          I remember going back to my days as a college summer intern for Senator Harkin in his Hart Building office in the 80s that Mikulski was disliked.  It wasn't political, it was personal, she was just abrasive.  Her politics are fine.  But people even then didn't like her.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:27:37 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  back in 86 how come the Maryland pubs didn't (0+ / 0-)

            seriously contest the seat? Someone like Marjorie Holt might have had a decent shot against Mikulski.

            RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

            by demographicarmageddon on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:28:26 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  She is popular (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, NMLib, bumiputera, askew, SLDemocrat

              Mikulski is disliked personally, but really how many people know her personally?...hardly any, people don't know their Senators except through political image.

              Mikulski is very popular politically.  She has always done things of which Maryland voters approve.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:32:52 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  she lost by 15 points in the wave of a lifetime (0+ / 0-)

                of course it was against a strong incumbent, but they ran a flake against her in 86.

                RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

                by demographicarmageddon on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:49:23 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Mikulski may not be well liked in the Capitol (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                but once you cross Western, Eastern, or Southern Avenue into Maryland she does fine.  What might be considered abrasive to DC insiders comes off to voters as fighting for them.

                37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:16:09 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Well, no, it's not quite that (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  No what's abrasive to insiders is not interpreted by voters as "fighting for them."

                  Rather, what's abrasive to insiders is never seen by voters, since hardly anyone ever meets and gets to know their U.S. Senators.  

                  She's not disliked on the Hill for her politics (except by Republicans, but they dislike the politics of almost all Democrats so she's no different).  She's disliked, from what I understand, for just being hard to have a working personal relationship with her.  This includes Democrats who are perfectly happy with her politics.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 06:39:50 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  Musical Committee Chairs (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, lordpet8

      Various committee chairs and senior members as of last week:

      http://democrats.senate.gov/...

      APPROPRIATIONS – 113th
      Inouye – CHAIRMAN
      Leahy
      Harkin
      Mikulski
      Murray

      EPW – 113th
      Baucus
      Boxer – CHAIRMAN
      Carper
      Lautenberg
      Cardin

      ENERGY – 113th
      Wyden – CHAIRMAN
      Tim Johnson
      Landrieu
      Cantwell

      FOREIGN RELATIONS – 113th
      Kerry – CHAIRMAN
      Boxer
      Menendez
      Cardin
      Casey

      HELP – 113th
      Harkin – CHAIRMAN
      Mikulski
      Murray
      Sanders
      Casey

      INTELLIGENCE – 113th
      Rockefeller
      Feinstein – CHAIRMAN
      Wyden
      Mikulski
      Mark Udall

      JUDICIARY – 113th
      Leahy – CHAIRMAN
      Feinstein
      Schumer
      Durbin
      Whitehouse

      ETHICS – 113th
      Boxer – CHAIRMAN
      Pryor
      Sherrod Brown

      Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

      by bear83 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 11:05:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I hope she kicks Grassley's ass (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      He's been stalling California's (and everyone else's) judicial nominees for months.
      District    Vacancy Date        Nominee                     Nomination Date
      09 - CAC     03/01/2012     O'Connell,Beverly Reid     11/14/2012
      09 - CAC     05/07/2012     Olguin,Fernando M.         05/14/2012
      09 - CAE     10/31/2012       
      09 - CAE     07/04/2012     Nunley,Troy L.               06/25/2012
      09 - CAN     10/03/2011       
      09 - CAN     08/31/2012       
      09 - CAN     12/31/2011     Orrick III,William H.      06/11/2012
      09 - CAN     03/23/2012     Tigar,Jon S.                  06/11/2012

      http://www.uscourts.gov/...

      Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

      by bear83 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 11:15:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is where I hope filibuster (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, bear83, MichaelNY

        reform has an effect: judicial nominations.

        Looking at that list. Fernando Olguin was cleared by the Judiciary committee July 19. He was confirmed yesterday on a voice vote. 7 month wait for a noncontroversial nominee.

        •  Will this motivate DiFi (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY

          to come out fully in support of filibuster reform? I hope so. She's made some encouraging noises lately, but I don't believe she's given her support to any proposals.

        •  ah, 5 months, not 7 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          still, a ridiculously long wait.

        •  It's more than just the filibuster for judges (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Home state senators get a say on who gets picked, and withhold 'blue slips' for any nominee they don't support. No blue slip - no hearing at all.

          Then they have committee hearings delayed (either by request or by simply denying the committee a quorum), and then they have committee votes delayed - not just for single nominees, but for the entire slate.

          A 2 - 4 week delay on committee votes has become the normal operating procedure. It delays not just the nominees under consideration, but also everyone in line behind them.

          And then once they get to the Senate floor, there's the filibuster, where a single senator can object to a nominee and force a cloture vote on each one, tying up the Senate for a week on a single nominee.

          Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

          by bear83 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 11:53:10 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  So two non-lawyers will lead Judiciary (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Feinstein does not have a law degree and neither does Grassley (who is the ranking member). Kind of interesting.

      I don't think this is a good sign for Obama's judicial nominees. Grassley has obstructed pretty effectively and DiFi (although I like her a whole lot more than most on here) is one of those gushy, non-partisan senators. How hard will she push for Obama's judges? Leahy can get pretty cranky and you could tell he wanted to punch Grassley at times.

      I bet she wanted to be chair because this is were the Assault Weapons Ban will originate.

  •  AR-GOV: McDaniel admits affair (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/...

    In a state like Arkansas, this has to be the end of the line for McDaniel. I'll bet Bill Halter runs, but this race has to favor the GOP at this point. As a Republican, I'll say that I hope Steve Womack can be coaxed into running for governor or reelection so Tom Cotton can have a clear path to the Senatorial general election... the stars are really aligning for him these days with Griffin not running and now this.

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 10:58:50 AM PST

  •  Speaking of politicians and affairs. (6+ / 0-)

    I've been reading "What It Takes", by Richard Ben Cramer, about the 1988 campaign.  Great book--enormous amount of information, and written like a novel.  I'm reading it on Plain Blog's recommendation, thinking there'd be some classic Biden.  And there is, but so far (I'm about 3/4 through--it's like 1000 pages) Biden is actually one of the more sympathetically-portrayed politicians, even though it also says he had more balls than sense,  and didn't always know what he thought before he started talking, and it also goes into great detail about his sitcom-esque get-rich-quick-schemes...and his obsession with refurbishing his money pit of a crumbling mansion, taking the asbestos out himself in a "moon suit"...anyway, it's a great book.  

    Dukakis, on the other hand, comes off terribly.  But of course, the people who come off worst of all are the press, and how the Hart and Biden "scandals" developed.  

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 11:29:54 AM PST

    •  As it should (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, levlg, MichaelNY

      I'm no apologist for Hart or Biden's errors, but looking back on that campaign the press' treatment really pisses me off, as it does with Bill Clinton's scandals.  For several decades the press regularly lectured us that personal mistakes or past indiscretions should be disqualifiers based on the excuse of "character", with Watergate cited as its all-purpose justification.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 11:46:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Biden apparently yelled at Dukakis (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        levlg, Adam B, itskevin, MichaelNY

        who called to apologize after someone on his campaign leaked Biden/Kinnock videos to the press--right during the Bork confirmation battle, with Biden chairing Judiciary--"don't you assholes realize this shit is important?".

        That's why Biden (and Bob Dole) come off most sympathetically; they're generally depicted as being the most concerned and sincere about real policy impact among the candidates profiled (Biden, Dole, Bush, Gephardt, Dukakis, and Hart).  

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 11:52:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's a terrific book (5+ / 0-)

      The one reason why I still don't trust E.J. Dionne. Well, not the one reason.

      Very long book, possibly gets into too much detail in the biographical sections. It really is like six full-length biographies rolled into one. Bob Dole's story is actually pretty inspirational, Gephardt's the opposite. I can't believe Democratic donors ever wrote checks to that man, though admittedly that's partly with hindsight knowing what he got up to after leaving office. But he comes off as a real snake in the book. Hart and Dukakis both come off as varieties of the stereotypical effete liberal, people who didn't have the stomach for it, IMO.

      •  I think the real problem or risk (6+ / 0-)

        with the biographical sections is that they can be a little too neat, even as they're also quite nuanced: candidates are the sums of their parental influences, who are the sums of their parental influences, going back to where they immigrated from...but that'd be unfair to take too far, since there's so much interesting information, not just about the candidates, but about rural Kansas, or factional politics in Massachusetts.

        But I actually think Dukakis comes off even worse than Hart.  They're both depicted as self-important intellectuals, but Dukakis is depicted as arrogantly indifferent to the effects of his policies and decisions, as long as they fit some standard of propriety--the worst kind of "goo goo".  (I also suspect Cramer was sympathetic after Hart's treatment in the press.)  

        There's a great scene where Ted Kennedy invites Dukakis to meet with some arms control experts in his hotel room; Dukakis dithers and then backs out, saying he has to do the family's grocery shopping!  According to Cramer, he was uncomfortable at the prospect of not being the biggest expert in the room.  I'm going to think of that scene the next time my ego gets in the way of learning something.

        And I've had a soft spot for Bob Dole ever since I read Hertzberg on "Dole's Charm", and the book doesn't hurt.  ("Did you include burial allowances for the ones that starve", he apparently snarled at James Buckley, who was trying to stop/cut food stamps.)

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 12:04:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree entirely (6+ / 0-)

          Hart doesn't come off as a bad person by any stretch, just as pompous and stiff, though with that dreamer quality that Democrats like to see in their leaders.

          Dukakis was very much in the mold of Jimmy Carter, very self-righteous, technocratic, very fixated on a sort of purity that doesn't really coincide with successful politics. Unlike Carter, he didn't seem to see politics as inherently sinful, and that by extension endless crusading morality was needed for leadership. Also unlike Carter, he lacked the ability to present himself (for a time) as the perfect solution to the country's problems.

          George H.W. Bush comes off like the least inspiring person ever to have lived, but we knew that already.

        •  Dole was close with Dan Inouye as well. (3+ / 0-)

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 12:17:14 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  And with George McGovern. (3+ / 0-)

            According to the book, after Ford made Dole his V.P.nominee, McGovern apparently called Dole with "tips to get under Jimmy Carter's skin!".  (Paraphrased, as all the quotes are--I left the book itself as home.)  McGovern was Dole's ally on food stamps, and on much else.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 12:20:35 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Those tips (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

              Wonder what they were. "Be Ted Kennedy" would have been a surefire one...

              McGovern was close friends with Barry Goldwater too. Even apart from ideology, the Senate was just a different place back then. Before the Gingrich-style Senators ruined it all.

              •  McGovern and Goldwater (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                had a lot to talk about, I'm sure--did Walter Mondale hang out with them too?

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                by Xenocrypt on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 12:27:58 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  McGovern voted for Ford, actually (4+ / 0-)

                He admitted that in an interview - I think with Larry King - in '06 after Ford died.

                •  Wow, that's surprising! (0+ / 0-)

                  What reason did he give for that?

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 03:44:36 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  He said he knew and liked Ford... (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    ... and didn't know Carter.

                    GEORGE MCGOVERN, FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Absolutely. And we did have a common bond there. I served in the House with President Ford when he was a congressman. I was just a freshman. He was emerging as the Republican leader in the House. But he always treated the lowliest freshman congressman the same way he treated everybody else.

                    I first came to really know him on the day we ended the war in Vietnam. That was April 30th, 1975, when he invited me to a small stag dinner at the White House. I was a little puzzled by it, because I didn't know him all that well.

                    And I arrived there. And here was King Hussein, the late Senator Fulbright, myself and one or two others.

                    And I told him that night, Mr. President, this is the first time I've been invited to the White House socially in 10 years, since I first began criticizing our involvement in Vietnam. He said, George, I know that. That's why you're here tonight. I never forgot that.

                    KING: Was he a good president?

                    MCGOVERN: Yes, I think he was. There's a consensus in the country that we've heard the last few days, from Republicans and Democrats, liberals, conservatives, those in the middle -- I think he perhaps now has earned the title unifier in chief. He's probably done a better job of pulling all the various elements of American politics together than any other person I know. And he deserves high marks for that.

                    KING: Are you surprised -- go ahead. I'm sorry. Go ahead.

                    MCGOVERN: I have to tell you something I've never said before publicly. I voted for him in 1976.

                    KING: What?

                    MCGOVERN: When he -- yes, I did. And at Thanksgiving dinner that year, I never said anything about this to Eleanor or to her five children. But I told them at Thanksgiving time I had voted for President Ford, even though he lost. And I told them why, because I thought he had come in at a difficult time. I didn't know President Carter very well then. And I just felt more comfortable somehow with Gerry Ford. Whereupon my wife Eleanor said, so did I vote for him.

                    We went around that table -- this is hard to believe -- all five of my kids voted for him. So they get seven votes out of the McGovern family for President Ford and Senator Dole, my long-time Republican friend.

                    I voted for Carter again in 1980. So with my brand of political luck, I voted against Carter when he won, I voted for him when he lost. But I can justify both of those votes.

                    KING: What a great story. Thank you, George McGovern, on the occasion of the passing of Gerald Ford.  

                    Link.

                    I think there was also some bad blood, because Carter (as governor in '72) was a very vocal supporter of Scoop Jackson and made some very negative speeches about McGovern - about how he was too radical and unelectable -- then turned around and lobbied for the vice presidency on his ticket.

                    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      •  Have you read "Dick Gephardt's Sellout" (3+ / 0-)

        This made the rounds a few years ago. Afterwards, Jonathan Chait, who had long ragged on John Kerry, mused about how in hindsight, he probably was the best choice for Democrats that year. (Though I think Dean fans have a case.) Otherwise - Edwards? Lieberman? Wesley Clark (who was better on paper than in practice)? Gephardt?

    •  And Dole comes off as a goddamn hero. NT (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY
  •  About Hirono and Hanabusa not getting along (5+ / 0-)

    There is long precedent for Senators from the same state not getting along.

    Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein had a pretty lousy relationship for most of the 1990s and especially during Condolezza Rice's nomination as Secretary of State. DiFi gave her a glowing introduction, while Boxer grilled her relentlessly. Boxer has always been a favorite of progressives, while DiFi has largely been loathed. They seem to get along better now with Feinstein enthusiastically campaigning for Boxer in 2010.

    Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins reportedly haven't gotten along. Whether their frosty relationship stems from their different styles and demeanors or from something else, I'm not sure. But the Washington Post ran a long vague profile of the relationship a few years ago.

    Didn't Chuck Hagel hate Ben Nelson? I always assumed it would have been the other way around because it was Hagel who beat Nelson in 1998.

    I am sure there are many other examples.

    •  Re: Boxer and Feinstein (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      Having different reputations and disagreeing on nominations aren't exactly the same as having a bad relationship. This is the first I'm hearing of them not getting along.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 12:21:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think they've worked well together (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        hankmeister, MichaelNY

        California probably has one of the most effective pairs of Senators, since both of them are willing to really to step up to the plate for the state. Before they were in the Senate, there were some issues between them because of endorsements, but they long put those aside once they were both running for the Senate.

        26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 12:37:52 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I definitely think their relationship is much (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        better than it was years ago. In 2010, Fiorina said she would be a better partner for Feinstein but DiFi slapped that assertion down and actually campaigned pretty heavily for Boxer.

        This article mentions link their relationship a bit.

        I forgot how Boxer became the de factor leader of the liberal wing of the party after Kerry's loss in 2004. She's still my favorite senator.

        Was she really planning on retiring in 2004? Or was that just bluster from her part.

        •  well that's what I heard (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

          though its not unheard of a senator to consider retirement but end up running again.

          I believe Senator Bingaman was thinking of retiring back in 2006, but Chuck Schumer and senate Dems convinced him stick around for another term, and hey it was good thing too as they got back control of chamber.

          24, gay Atari Democrat CA-41

          by lordpet8 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 01:36:01 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Re: your final question (0+ / 0-)

          I doubt it, since she announced for re-election in 2006, way earlier than she had to.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 09:37:30 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Mostly women (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, MichaelNY, askew

      in your examples -- and of course, both women in HI. Not to pick on you, but I think that's interesting. Could suggest that we tend to make a bigger deal about supposed tensions in relationships between women than we do between men or between a man and a woman.

    •  Despite being from the same party (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

      Bob Toricelli and Frank Laughtenberg hated each other in the few years Toricelli's one term and Laughtenberg's first stint in the Senate overlapped.  I remember hearing Toricelli saying something once along the lines of "It's not my fault that the Constitution gave each state two senators."

    •  Lautenberg and the Torch . . . (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      . . . were infamously known for not getting along with one another. It's rather amusing that Lautenberg then took over Torricelli's old seat in 2002, when a scandal broke that forced the latter out of the race.

      29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "We need less of that War on Women, and more of that Warren woman!"-- writer Paul Myers.

      by The Caped Composer on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 07:58:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Who's the most progressive choice for HI-1? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack

    I've heard the names Esther Kia'aina, Suzanne Chun Oakland and Brian Schatz thrown around, but not being from Hawaii I know nothing about them.

    It's important to back the best candidate early because if Ed Case runs for the open seat its very likely either going to be him or the Republican who wins.

    •  Keep Hannemann and Case out (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh
    •  I've heard good things about Stanley Chang (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      but don't know enough to be sure, as he took over Djou's Honolulu city council district (probably the least liberal in the city limits).

      I hope; therefore, I can live.

      by tietack on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 06:59:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Make no mistake (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      I want to see a progressive in that seat. But since I think Ed Case and Charles Djou run no matter what, I want Democrats to put forward their best candidate in the jungle election, even if that's not necessarily the most progressive person in the district. I don't think being a good candidate and being a good progressive are mutually exclusive at all, but it's a choice between someone who is ideologically akin to Rep. Stark but might struggle with Case to hold the Democratic vote and someone who is ideologically akin to, say, Rep. Hoyer but would kick Case's ass, then I'm inclined to go with the latter.

      I think Democrats' best option is probably Senate Majority Leader Brickwood Galuteria, a former Hawaii Democratic Party chairman who lives in the heart of HI-01.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 02:57:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  can anyone direct me to a site (0+ / 0-)

    that has the ranking members of committees from previous senates? like for example who was the ranking member on Ag or Judiciary in the 106th?

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 02:09:27 PM PST

    •  On the Wikipedia pages (0+ / 0-)

      for the congressional committees, they have chairmen going back to the beginning of the committee. Not ranking members though.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 09:39:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  two election notes (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

    MO-HD150: the "re-do" scheduled for today was postponed after Dunklin County officials discovered problems with voters voting in the wrong state house district in another precinct. The Democrat appealed to the State Supreme Court, which was dismissed down to the lower level to make judgement and apparently they'll have a re-do election in 3 precincts on January 8th. The Democrat (Tom Todd) has to win those precincts by 140 votes to finish ahead of the Republican (Kent Hampton). The Missouri House would be 110-53 Republican if Hampton holds on.

    SC-1: The first declared candidate? Robert "Teddy" Turner, the Republican son of Ted Turner.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 02:31:30 PM PST

    •  Wait (0+ / 0-)

      What's this about a re-do?

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 04:46:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  in the 150th house district (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        they had two precincts split between State House districts where residents of one district got ballots for another and the reverse. So that, combined with a 110-140 vote margin led the Dunklin County Clerk to sue for a redo of the entire election, which wasn't granted. So they're redoing the State House election in 3 precincts (Campbell Ward 2, Rural Campbell and Cotton Hill) on January 8th and if Todd defeats Hampton by 140 (which seems unlikely), then things get more complex.

        I say more complex since the State House convenes on January 9th, and if the winner changes, there could be a contest of the election.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 06:55:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I was looking through the Florida State House (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, CF of Aus, MichaelNY

    election results, and began to think that with Obama doing well with the Cuban vote, if those districts start sending Dems to Tallahassee, and it looks like Dems did win one on those Miami-Dade seats (District 112), where would that put the State House. I count Districts 103, 105, 110, 111, 114, 115, 116, 118, and 119 as largely Cuban districts in Miami-Dade still held by the GOP. Dems nearly picked off Districts 114 and 115. If you were to flip all these seats, that brings Dems up from 46 seats to 55 seats. Then, if the Dems can pick off a few seats in Tampa-St. Pete, Orlando, and Daytona (and get the Keys seat back), there is the majority. But, I think it will be a while before all those seats start sending Dems to the capital.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 02:38:47 PM PST

    •  But the big question is whether (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus, MichaelNY

      the Cuban vote trended blue this year OR the coexisting non-Cuban Hispanic voting pop. jumped (or both is possible).  How Cuban is HD-112?

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 02:44:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It is 71% Hispanic VAP (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        which is in the middle range of the seats, which go from 64% up to nearly 90%. I have always thought that the flood gates would open on the Cuban vote when the Castro brothers pass on.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 02:49:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Manchin going liberal (7+ / 0-)

    Now that he has a six year term ahead of him he can afford to be liberal for a little while, it seems.  He referred to Dianne Feinstein as "beautiful" on MSNBC yesterday and now he's suggesting that he would support an Assault Weapons Ban or something like that.  And he took a phone call from Obama today, OMG, don't tell West Virginia.

    •  Prez will need him as a point man on gun issue (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IndianaProgressive, jj32, MichaelNY, bjssp

      Probably seeing what exactly is he open to sorta deal.  

      I mean this is a guy who shot the cap and trade bill in a campaign ad.  

      Manchin will be unbeatable going forward if he wants to stay in the Senate and he could have higher office aspirations.  I can't see him winning a Dem primary ever, but he could make an interesting VP pick in 2016 or 2020 to balance out the ticket for a more liberal Presidential candidate who would have been pulled further left by any hotly contested primary.  

      If Manchin is to be the point man on this for the President, he'll have asked for something in return, either spoken or unspoken and understood.  This will be a big fight for the President to get anything at all done.   Likely will involve some give on a coal mining/EPA issue at least.

      The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 03:56:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I suspect this is a sincere change of heart (12+ / 0-)

      This thing in Newtown is unlike anything before to more people than I think some on DKE might realize.  I say that because I remember being a bachelor, being emotionally much less affected, often emotionally completely unaffected, by news about bad things happening to families.

      But I'm a married dad of 3 now, and this stuff is chilling and hits my gut.  I have a daughter in first grade.  I saw online over the weekend a list of the Newtown children's names and birthdays, and one of them was a little girl born 3 days after mine......it was a sucker punch, realizing her parents were in a hospital up there the exact same time as my wife and I down here, going through the exact same awe-inspiring experience at the same time.  And like us, they had so many hopes and dreams for their new child.  And Friday was an ordinary day, dropping their girl off at school, just like I did that same morning.  And what happened, that's a horror that would drive me into  shock and uncontrolled rage and deep depression for life.

      These Senators are almost all parents, they feel this as parents.  This is more gut-wrenching and personal than children who were murdered in the Giffords shooting, or Aurora, because it was the targeting of small children at an elementary school......unimaginable.

      So I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Manchin, who has 3 kids, is having a sincere epiphany.  I sure hope so.

      Sadly, the GOP will block everything and there will no legislation.  The President will have to do whatever they determine is doable through executive and administrative action.  But hopefully this at least drives down Congressional Republicans' image that much further, so that we build an even longer rap sheet against them to prosecute in front of the jury of voters in the midterm.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:23:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  primary challenges (4+ / 0-)

    DesJarlais may be more likely to lose a primary than Bentivolio. I think most GOP primary voters would be far more repulsed by a scumbag than by a nut, and DJ probably won't be able to raise much more money than Bentivolio this time around.

    I think either would lose a primary against a single establishment candidate, but could win a clown car primary. I think Bentivolio would likely pull 35-45% in a primary, DJ 25-35%.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 03:54:16 PM PST

  •  Anyone else see the chatter about Bill Weld? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    ... About how he's reportedly serious about running for Kerry's seat if Brown takes a pass?

    Any thoughts on how he'd do? He'd probably be less party-line than Brown if elected (the guy endorsed Obama in '08), but I don't know how he'd fair given how long he's been away from politics. (And given that he ran an abortive gubernatorial campaign in New York in 2006.)

    •  Geez, Kerry is not even officially the pick. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      Quit it, guys (not at DKEers, just to everyone in general), and wait for him to be or not be picked.

      Anyway, yes, I think Bill Weld can easily be campaigned against as an opportunistic carpetbagger (going to NY to run for Governor several years ago only to come back to wait for something to open in MA).  They could question his dedication and whether he lost his way.  They could taunt him on which sports teams he favors (Giants vs. Patriots and Yankees vs. Red Sox).  Also, I don't think the GOP will like someone who endorsed Obama.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 06:17:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I worry about Weld more than Brown (4+ / 0-)

        With Brown, I'm not worried at all, we beat him easily.

        But Weld could go either way.  He could still retain his personal popularity (which was far greater than anything Brown ever has had) and really be the tough foe some people imagine Brown to be.  Or he could be another Tommy Thompson re personal baggage and a faded image, or Roy Barnes re a combination of partisan and ideological loyalty overwhelming any willingness toward crossover voting......either would expose Weld as unelectable.

        I just don't know which it would be with Weld.  He's the one person I fear could be the exception to the rule that Dems will coast in this.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:14:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  PPP should poll about Weld and Brown. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

          by bjssp on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:26:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Weld is a flake (9+ / 0-)

          He was a flake even as Governor, once jumping into the Charles while in a suit. After the stress of the alter Dukakis years, which were a mix of ideology and strict puritanism(some of which was hinted at above in the discussion about Whatever It Takes) Mass voters wanted a laidback Patrician.

          The problem is that Weld at the end of the day was not a capable and hardworking poll who played a flake, but an actual lazy politician who hated the work of governing. That worked well in the early 1990s, and ensured a good relationship with Billy Bulger, but it killed him in the 1996 Senate race as much as the national wave.

          The manner in which he quit in 1997, a rushed departure followed by his political efforts in New York reinforced that impression. Furthermore, the last years of the Cellucci/Swift Administration were wracked by corruption scandals that had their origins, and by extension tarred Weld who spent little effort vetting his appointments.

          Finally Weld is the worst possible candidate to put together a winning Republican coalition. The voters he appeals most to - those in latte suburbs like Lexington, Concord, and Acton, are long gone for the National GOP. They will state a public preference for Weld as a Senator over Markey, then vote for Markey due to party loyalty.

          The GOP's only road to victory is the Brown method. Brown put together the GOP base with Hillary's 2008 electorate, taking advantage of the incredibly bitter primary in Massachusetts, Deval Patrick's unpopularity, and Coakley's ineptitude(which is overrated as a factor, the real issue was the post-2008 Democratic Civil War and Coakley's role in it). That probably is not viable this year. But neither is Weld's method.

          •  In 1990, he won Cambridge of all places. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, MichaelNY

            Though that was likely caused by Silber's opposition from university types.  Silber was to Boston University what Harold Eickhoff was to The College of New Jersey (my undergrad).

            By the way, were you surprised when Tierney bested Tisei?  I know I was.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 09:43:33 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I was, though (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, MichaelNY, bumiputera

              The same friend who was leaking internals to me in the summer was also the only person to predict that outcome. He went around the district the week before the election and saw almost zero sign of a Tisei ground campaign. Tierney on the other hand seemed to be working the district hard, even if the DCCC had left. And he heard a disturbing number of people mention that while they were unhappy for Tierney, he had done a lot for (insert x industry).

              Donors were shocked. Tisei barely outran Romney outside of his Senate District(where he massively overperformed). Katharine Clark would probably be able to waltz into the seat.

              •  So Tisei took it for granted? (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, bumiputera

                I read an article that said that he and his team were convinced they had it in the bag and were shocked when they came out behind 1%.  I guess this closing ad from him symbolized their overconfidence:

                That aside, will Tierney retire before next time and let Sen. Clark (or someone of similar caliber) in?  He made it this time, but unless Tisei throws in the towel, he will still be at risk in a midterm year (could Bruce Tarr also pose a threat?).

                Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 01:07:38 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  They all but stopped campaigning the last week (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                  Some LCRs came up from DC to hold signs at a rally or two in Boston(which is not in the district) and to wander around, but as to local structure it was suspended.

                  Tisei's problem, as is the problem with a lot of local Republicans not named Scott Brown is the view that they are lazy, something Cellucci, Weld, and Swift did a lot to attach to the party. Tisei gave the impression he felt he was entitled, and he was not prepared for Tierney's sympathy bounce from people who remembered things he did for them.

                  I think Tierney will resist retirement hard. I think local democrats will press him equally. In either event, Tisei probably outspent him 3-1 or more with outside support. That won't be there in 2014.

            •  that map was very interesting (4+ / 0-)

              a Republican winning Cambridge at the same time that a Democratic wins Seekonk is impossible in today's Massachusetts.

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 02:16:13 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  So I'm baconmandering Nebraska (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, psychicpanda, BeloitDem

    just to see what the limits are and I'm just barely unable to get two Obama 2008 districts and I'm sure if I played around with it enough I could get two plurality Obama districts and one 70% McCain district.  Not bad for a non-southern state where Obama got just 41.6% of the vote.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 06:47:06 PM PST

  •  Notes on RRH 2014 Senate Rankings (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://www.redracinghorses.com/...

    Overall, they're a touch more R leaning than I think, but that's OK, as RRH should look at the "bright side" for Rs.

    Lean R: SD, WV
    Tossup: LA, AK, AR, NC
    Lean D: MT, MA, MN, NJ

    I personally think that WV is a tossup; LA, AR, and NC really should be "Lean D" -- but think almost all of the RRH ratings seem grounded in reality. Some of the detailed analysis in the link is excellent. (My one serious quibble -- I think MA will be likely D, assuming Kerry becomes SoS.)

    Nevertheless, if Rs were to sweep the noted Lean R and Tossup seats, they'd get to 51 votes.

    And while predicting the overall result of the '14 election is, as always, hazardous, I think we have the cushion needed to hold the Senate through '16, when we could conceivably pick up 11 seats (just eyeballing http://en.wikipedia.org/... ).

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 07:48:26 PM PST

  •  MTA head Joe Lhota (R) resigning (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, bumiputera

    to consider bid for Mayor of NYC.

    I think he would be a very strong candidate. He has done very well at the MTA, although such is a non partisan position.

    Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

    by R30A on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:40:21 PM PST

  •  MA-Sen: Markey is about to jump in (5+ / 0-)

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 08:52:50 PM PST

  •  Affleck for senate? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I suppose noone has seen this one:

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/...

    Seriously doubt it'll happen, but doesn't hurt to pass on the junk news.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 11:06:45 PM PST

  •  No live blog of the South Korean election? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, bumiputera

    DKE, I am disappoint!

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 02:18:32 AM PST

  •  Q FL poll: Scott at 36% approval, 30% re-elect (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, kleinburger

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 03:08:24 AM PST

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