For those of you not familiar with CA-21 it is a notoriously hard call because of its tendency to have very small voter turnout. Only 116,283 people voted for Congressional Representative on Nov. 6, 2012 in CA-21. What in the heck happened????
The contest being examined was between David Valadao (R), a sitting one-term state Assemblyman and John Hernandez (D), the CEO of the Fresno Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. One could describe the race as Who Dat vs. Some Dude.
CA-21 --- 2012 Presidential General Election Results. (Presidential)
County Obama Romney Total Obama% Romney%
Fresno (pt.) 21,774 18,635 41,066 53.02% 45.38%
Kern (pt.) 28,233 13,666 42,640 66.21% 32.05%
Tulare (pt.) 2,160 1,945 4,175 51.74% 46.59%
Kings 12,979 17,671 31,351 41.40% 56.37%
Total 65,146 51,917 119,232 54.64% 43.54%
As you can see in chart above, Obama won CA-21 out-right and won in three the counties that are portioned off but lost Kings which is the only county that is entirely in CA-21 and the Section 5 county to boot.
2012 General Election Congressional District 21 Results
COUNTY Hernandez(D)PCT Valadao(R) PCT TOTAL
Fresno 16,197 40.81% 23,488 59.19% 39,685
Kern 21,861 52.95% 19,429 47.05% 41,290
Kings 9,473 30.31% 21,783 69.69% 31,256
Tulare 1,588 39.19% 2,464 60.81% 4,052
District 49,119 42.24% 67,164 57.76% 116,283
Valadao won every county in his district except Kern and furthermore, it appears that approximately 4000 people in Kings county and approximately 5000 people in Fresno County that voted for Obama also voted for Valadao!
Kern county is in a completely separate media market (Bakersfield) from the other 3 counties in the district that are in the Fresno media market. Which could explain some of the odd voting pattern.
Prisons & Prisoners:
According to the Census Bureau's Advanced Group Quarters Data, on Census Day (April 1, 2010) there were 44,549 individuals incarcerated (column P0420003) within CA-21 out of a total population of 702,904.
That's 6% of the population of the district that was in prison. This is pre-realignment meaning that population of the district has probably shrank in direct proportion to the State of California's Prison population.
For a number of technical reasons I have arrived at the conclusion that the CVAP (Citizen Voting Age Population) put out by the census is functionally worthless for its purported use. The CVAP is derived from estimates based on the 2000 census. The census geography was changed in 2010. Meaning the actual shapes and numbers of census blocks, block groups and tracts changed. The actual CVAP of the district is not knowable unless the district were resurveyed and if it were, it would need to account for large number of felons without voting rights.