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I drew a Democratic Gerrymander of New Jersey. I believe it to be a solid 10-2 map. It doesn't take into account incumbents, but I did draw a 50% AA majority district and a 50% Latino majority district.

District One:

This district takes in the southwestern portion of Camden. It brings it up to a 60% district. Much of Frank LoBiondo's (R–Ventnor) district is split between the 1st and the 2nd. His residence is located in the 2nd. I'd imagine, if he ran, he'd run in the 2nd. I'm pretty sure Rob Andrews (D-Haddon Heights) lives in this district as well, but his old district is split up as well. Not that I'm particularly impressed with him. I'm sure he'd land on his feet, being this is New Jersey.

Obama: 60.05%
Democratic:58.48%

District Two:

The 2nd takes in the rest of the Camden County and stretches down to Atlantic City. It also takes in Cape May County. I'd imagine this would be the district LoBiondo would run in. I'm not sure he'd make it in either district. Mostly because his the more conservative parts of his old district were split up into CD 1 and 2.

Obama: 59.95%
Democratic: 57.31%

District Three:

This district takes in what left of Burlington County, stretches up to Mercer County, and takes in Trenton. It then stretches up the rest of the border into Somerset County. Chris Smith (R-Hamilton) lives in this district, but would have no chance. I'd imagine he'd run in the neighboring 4th CD, one of two Republican vote sinks. Rush D. Holt, Jr. (D–Hopewell Township) also lives in this district. He may face a primary challenge or move to the 5th CD, but either it's not the most desirable situation for him.

Obama: 60.27%
Democratic: 55.53%

District Four:

This is the first of the two Republican vote sinks. It takes up most of Ocean County and parts of Monmouth County. Smith would probably run here.

Obama: 40.19%
Democratic: 40.03%

District Five:

This district take up the rest of Mercer County and parts of Somerset and Middlesex County. A little tendril goes down into Monmouth and Ocean Counties. Holt might run here, but that's doubtful. State Senate District 14 seems to be in the heart of the CD. I'd imagine anybody from 14th would have the upper hand in a Democratic primary.

Obama: 59.16%
Democratic: 55.75%

District Six:

This district is pretty much a successor to Frank Pallone's (D-Long Branch) old district. I don't think he'd have much trouble at all. The district takes up the coast of Ocean County and parts of Middlesex and Somerset Counties.

Obama: 57.42%
Democratic: 55.76%

District Seven:

The second of the two Republican vote sinks. This district soaks up the reddest areas of the old 5th, 7th, and 11th. I'd imagine that all three of Scott Garret (R-Wantage Township), Leonard Lance (R-Clinton Township), and Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-Harding) would run in a Republican primary against each other. Can't say I'd know who'd win.

Obama: 40.06%
Democratic: 36.55%

District Eight:

This is newly created Latino majority district, at 50.4%. The district takes in Patterson, Passiac, Newark, Kearny, North Bergan, Union City, and West New York. Albio Sires (D-West New York) possibly lives in or near this district. He'd probably face a primary challenge from someone like State Senate Nellie Pou (D-Patterson). This district extends into Northwestern Bergan County and soaks up some red areas, like Franklin Lakes. Home to the Real Housewives of New Jersey! Gotta love 'em.

Obama: 65.24%
Democratic: 63.87%

District Nine:

This is the AA majority district, at 50.03%. This district takes parts of Jersey City, Newark, Roselle, and Plainfield. I don't think Donald Payne Jr. would have any trouble in a primary. It also soaks up some redder areas.

Obama: 81.07%
Democratic: 77.64%

District Ten:

This district takes up a small portion of Somerset County. Portions of Union, Morris, Essex, and Passiac Counties. I'm not sure who'd win Democratic primary. It's the least Democratic of the Democratic seats.

Obama: 57.16%
Democratic: 54.06%

District 11:

This district takes up portions of Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergan, and Passiac Counties. I'm also not sure about who'd win a Democratic primary here either. I think State Rep. Connie Wagner lives here or the 12th. She might be a possibility in either.

Obama: 58.36%
Democratic: 58.06%

District 12:

This district takes up most of Bergan County. It also takes up small portions of Passiac and Hudson Counties. It's the most contiguous district in the region.

Obama: 58.76%
Democratic: 59.77%

Poll

Would this map result in a 10-2 delegation?

76%39 votes
23%12 votes

| 51 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 04:00:08 AM PST

  •  nice map (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, ramesh, WisJohn, James Allen

    although it's a bit hard to tell what things are where without town names/city borders.

    it's not inconceivable that Frank LoBiondo could win in your 2nd. Atlantic County can be very R-friendly downballot and LoBiondo is a beneficiary of LaTourette's Syndrome. but we'd probably get it when he retired, at worst.

    Connie Wagner lives in Paramus, but I'm not sure which district you put that in - think the 12th, but not sure.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 04:49:56 AM PST

  •  Great map! (0+ / 0-)

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

    by Alibguy on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:55:57 AM PST

  •  Damn (0+ / 0-)

    I may not even bother publishing mine. Mine is cleaner, gets basically the same result, but doesn't achieve AA majority status in Payne's district... :( You win by far.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:53:51 AM PST

  •  This is an excellent map (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Englishlefty

    and definitely a 10-2.

    This map basically does the same thing with South Jersey as mine does. It's really the only way to get rid of Lobiondo. I also like how you brought all three South Jersey districts up to 60% Obama. Very well done.

    North Jersey is very different from what I had. Mine is cleaner, but this map is more effective, and if the least Democratic district (that's not a Republican vote sink) is 57.16% Obama, then that's really good. I would definitely vote for this map if I was a state legislator in NJ.

    By the way, what percent Hispanic is district 11?

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), new ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:35:00 PM PST

  •  This is what Dems should have started with in nego (0+ / 0-)

    The Dems present a 10-2. The Reps draw a 6-6, and eventually the bipartisan commission settles with a 8-4.  I don't no how well the Dems negotiated but I do know we ended up with an almost perfect 6-6 Repub gerrymander.

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