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One common Democratic response to multiple reports that Sen. John Kerry will be President Barack Obama's choice for Secretary of State is sure to be "No, please, no, not another special election in Massachusetts." But with that, it's time for the Great Mentioner to swing into action. As a Massachusetts native and Senate horserace geek, here are my off-the-cuff assessments of some possible candidates.

First, I'm not 100 percent sure outgoing Sen. Scott Brown is going to run for Senate instead of running for governor. Being governor means actually having to do work; being in the Senate means you can just fart around and tout bi/nonpartisanship and independence, at least for a while. On the other hand, it's much, much easier to get elected governor, and, in particular, to get reelected—you can claim to have no ties to the national GOP and that, as we know Brown likes to do. If he's in the Senate he'll be hunted this spring, in fall 2014, and then every six years—and he'll occasionally have to fight Presidential-year turnout, as he did in 2012. Now that everyone knows he can be beat, people won't be scared to take him on as they were in 2012; he might be able to hold back the tide in midterm elections.

If Brown doesn't run, former Gov. Bill Weld, who just moved back to the state, actually might. That would also be a tough race, but less so than Brown. Weld was an immensely popular governor, but he last held office during the Clinton administration, he moved out of state for several years, and he lost his last race (a 1996 Senate bid against John Kerry himself).

Gov. Deval Patrick has said a million times he's not interested in the Senate. I'm inclined to believe him, though he'd be a strong candidate if he ran. Patrick apparently wants to appoint Vicki Kennedy. She's not categorically refusing as she's done in the past, but she's also far from a sure bet to take an appointment, and if she were appointed as a caretaker, it's not certain she'd run to succeed Kerry.

Beyond that, what does the field look like?

  • Rep. Ed Markey is old, at 66, for a first-time Senate candidate, but still kind of feisty, and he can somewhat emulate what Sen.-elect Elizabeth Warren did because he's quite focused on a particular issue that polls well in Massachusetts (environmental regulation). However, it's not clear Markey has the stomach for a really tough race at his age (he opted against a run in 2010). He's sitting on $3 million right now, which would give him a nice leg up.

    Markey is also uniquely well positioned to make an argument that worked for Warren—not just being strong on environmental issues but being a leader (in Warren's case there was no doubt she'd be a leader on financial issues). One of Brown's big weaknesses was that while he was seen as a nice guy, he was never a titan—no one points to any big issues that Brown is a leader on, because there aren't any. And whatever legislative accomplishments Brown has, they pale in comparison to Markey's.

  • Former Rep. Marty Meehan seems to like his job as chancellor of UMass Lowell. But he's still sitting on a pile of money he'd saved for just such a race, and starting with close to $5 million squared away, he'd look pretty good in a special election.
  • Rep.-elect Joe Kennedy III has said he won't do it, and while he might change his mind, that's probably wise. He's an insanely good fundraiser and he raised Senate money for a House race. But he's just 32, his resume is great for a 32 year old (Stanford, Peace Corps, Harvard Law, prosecutor, Congressman), but thin for a Senate candidate, especially as he hasn't even been sworn in. He's going to run for governor or Senate some day, just not now.
  • Rep. Mike Capuano might get in. He's very liberal, and aggressive enough to take the fight to Brown. But it's hard to gauge his strengths as a candidate—he lost the primary for the last special election to Attorney General Martha Coakley, he didn't raise that much money, and has never had a tough race since he was elected to Congress with 23 percent of the primary vote in 1998. On the other hand, he might benefit from buyer's remorse from the 2010 special election, and if he can raise enough money for a big race, his profile—he could run easily as a progressive fighter for the middle class, as Elizabeth Warren did—would fit the state well.
  • I doubt Rep. Stephen Lynch will run. He could have in 2010 and chose not to. I think he wants to be a Senator, but Lynch, who is actually very bright, knows his limitations; he'd have a hard time fundraising from Democrats because he's pro-life and generally more conservative, and any success he'd have peeling off blue-collar workers from Brown would be more than cancelled out by bleeding support among suburban women and Democrats generally not showing up. You need high turnout to beat Brown and Lynch won't get that.
  • Martha Coakley and state Treasurer Steve Grossman are mentioned (Grossman could bring a lot of money to a race, as he's the former DNC Chair), but I think both of them are running for governor. (Coakley, by the way, would be a strong candidate for governor, as she's still popular within the state and has earned praise for her work as Attorney General).
  • US Attorney Carmen Ortiz is a total wild card. Deval Patrick loves her. She's made a name investigating Beacon Hill politicians, which actually helps distinguish her from the "Democrat machine" Brown likes to rage against, but it might cost her institutional support in the city—and again, you need really high turnout for a June special. She's never run for elected office as far as I know, so who knows if she can raise the money she'd have to raise to beat Brown—but if she can, she's got a good profile.
  • Alan Khazei has had his chances to show he can get traction. He's failed so far.
  • Rep. Richie Neal is unlikely to give up a seat on Ways and Means especially since no one outside Western Massachusetts knows who he is. Also, Rep. Jim McGovern, who could run well in Worcester, is thought to want desperately to be Rules Committee chairman, a position from which he's not far away.
  • Wild cards abound, of course: there could be some random rich people who get in (as Celtics part-owner Steve Pagliuca did in 2010), or it could be a relatively low profile mayor (Kim Driscoll of Salem, who is supposedly running for lieutenant governor; Scott Lang of New Bedford, who might struggle with labor support); or a member of the state House or Senate (Ben Downing, who is a 31-year-old four-term State Senator).
  • We also have a lot more law professors in Massachusetts.

A special election for Senate in Massachusetts is going to remain a scary thing for Democrats nationally since the debacle of January 2010, and as Markos mentioned, the Democratic candidate in a potential special election in 2013 would not have the ammunition Elizabeth Warren used so well in 2012, that the balance of power in the Senate was in play. That said, Massachusetts Democrats have done a lot to get their act together since January 2010, and 2012 highlighted many Scott Brown weaknesses that a Democratic nominee could still exploit in 2013.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:56 AM PST.

Also republished by Massachusetts Kosmopolitans and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I'm uneasy about this too (11+ / 0-)

    I really don't mind Markey  running in a special election and then to keep the seat so he can be senator for 8 or 10 years (or for long enough for Deval Patrick to run for the seat when Markey retires), but you never know what the Massachusetts electorate will do, do you.

    -7.75, -8.10; All it takes is security in your own civil rights to make you complacent.

    by Dave in Northridge on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:03:06 PM PST

    •  Ed has the gravitas for the gig (5+ / 0-)
      Rep. Ed Markey is old, at 66, for a first-time Senate candidate, but still kind of feisty, and he can somewhat emulate what Sen.-elect Elizabeth Warren did because he's quite focused on a particular issue that polls well in Massachusetts (environmental regulation). However, it's not clear Markey has the stomach for a really tough race at his age (he opted against a run in 2010). He's sitting on $3 million right now, which would give him a nice leg up.
      Markey is also uniquely well positioned to make an argument that worked for Warren—not just being strong on environmental issues but being a leader (in Warren's case there was no doubt she'd be a leader on financial issues). One of Brown's big weaknesses was that while he was seen as a nice guy, he was never a titan—no one points to any big issues that Brown is a leader on, because there aren't any. And whatever legislative accomplishments Brown has, they pale in comparison to Markey's.

      yksitoista ulotteinen presidentin shakki. / tappaa kaikki natsit "Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03) 政治委员, 政委‽ Warning - some snark above ‽

      by annieli on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:08:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Patrick will be appointed to something. (6+ / 0-)

      He said several times since the election that he would finish his term as governor. That means, of course he could run for Kerry's seat in 2014 if a Republican---likely Brown---wins the special election.

      He also said in a radio interview soon after the election that he had talked to "people in the administration" (as I remember) about possible roles for him, but in the same interview reiterated that he wanted to finish his term.

      Not sure exactly what Obama might have in mind for him, but Attorney General and the Supreme Court would be nice fits.

      Resist much, obey little. ~~Edward Abbey, via Walt Whitman

      by willyr on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:17:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Furious in MA (38+ / 0-)

      I am furious about this. We JUST got rid of Scott Brown, and we thought we'd ended the risk he'd spend 25 years in the Senate. Now we'll have to regroup, avoid a divisive primary if possible, and do it all over again. In a summertime special election.

      Warren won because turnout was huge in the larger cities that lean Dem, as I explained on Blue Mass Group. Brown's vote total actually went UP almost 300K from 2010 to 2012. Huge Democratic turnout was why he lost this time - the kind of turnout we will be hard-pressed to replicate in a July special election without the President on the ballot.

      The GOP is, I'm sure, quite happy at having orchestrated this and Obama should be indicted for political malpractice. If we do lose this seat, it puts us that much closer to losing the Senate in 2014. Obama will, by then, already have lived through 4 years of a GOP House. Would he like to spend his last two years with a GOP Senate as well? Does he not want any kind of a legacy? (No, Heritage Foundation health plan isn't good enough)

      Best case scenario: we hold the seat, but at the cost of distracting thousands of activists and volunteers here from progressive work on the state and local level. We have a ton of state issues to push and here, in my city, we've got three tax overrides coming up for badly-needed new schools. We sure as hell didn't need this here.

      Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

      by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:47:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Then help make "Best case scenario" happen! (16+ / 0-)

        This is happening, and it was probably happening long before Rice fell on her sword. Kerry's the best choice for SoS, particularly if Obama picks Hagel for Defense. If you want to have a hissy fit about it, feel free, but think about this: Two straight losses for Brownie means that miserable son of a bitch's political career is truly dead as a doornail. And that's worth the effort, to my mind. So bitch up about reality or suck it up and deal. That's your choice.

        "If you're going to go down with the ship, make it a submarine." - Wayne Shorter

        by Oliver Tiger on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:01:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Fine (19+ / 0-)
          So bitch up about reality or suck it up and deal. That's your choice.
          And I'll bitch about it today, and suck it up and deal tomorrow.

          But I live here and work on these things. And just Thursday night I was at a meeting about all the important local issues we have to focus on with the 2012 elections finally over. To have to do this again distracts from that work. And there's a significant risk Brown wins again in a special election. Not worth it to me. If we don't hold the seat, Obama just pissed away 20% of his Senate majority.

          Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

          by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:56:19 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  this was probably the mccain/graham plan (4+ / 0-)

            all along...it is a major coup for repubs to hold that senate seat.  when dems hold it, we get a real liberal there.

            brown would win a special election--no question.

          •  37 people, most likely from Mass., agree (0+ / 0-)

            We have way too much to do in this state to be putting time into defeating Brown again.  We just finished working our tails off on a tough race, made all the harder because Warren was a mediocre  candidate with a disorganized campaign.  Add to that, activists were running up to NH to canvass for Obama and working to elect a Dem to replace Barney.  And you say to suck it up?

            The infrastructure in this state is a total mess (thanks, Romney, for major cuts to local aid that got us here).  For the next 3 months, I plan to put 100% of my political action time into dealing with raising revenue for the schools in my community.   I've talked to loads of other politically active people who have no enthusiasm for another battle with Brown. So, yeah, a lot of them may very well "feel free" to pass this next election by.  Meanwhile, I live in a community that Dems count on for a boatload of votes.  

            This is going to be a tough sell around here. Obama knew this was a huge problem.  Other people from Mass. are telling DK it's a problem.  How about listening, rather than berating?  

        •  You are right ... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          cocinero

          I remember people saying Kerry was the likely SoS choice .. before HRC was picked .. and that Kerry's goal was still to be SoS some day .. in fact .. even back in late 2008 .. there was plenty of thought that Kerry would be the 2ne term SoS .. so this isn't anything new .. the "in" crowd in Mass. should have been aware that this was very likely to happen and been planning for it

      •  In a state as Democratic as (3+ / 0-)

        Massachusetts, don't tell me that you can find a competent person to run against and defeat Scott Brown

        •  Why should they have to? (14+ / 0-)

          6 months after getting rid of him.

          Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

          by Paleo on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:50:20 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Sure (16+ / 0-)

          We have plenty of Democrats in office, but nobody with the statewide recognition Brown has. Matching this year's turnout in Dem areas will be a tall order.

          Brown lost some luster by attacking Warren's heritage, etc., during the last campaign. He still remains the most popular Republican here by far and on a par with, or far ahead of, any Democrat who might run in the special election. This state is far more complex politically than people give it credit for. Many voters in the burbs eat up the "independent" schtick Brown pushes.

          It annoys me on a bigger level. Obama always manages to give the GOP in Congress what they want, and he's done it again.

          Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

          by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:02:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well, add to that (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            fenway49, pademocrat, Alice Olson

            all the drama and corruption among the Dems on Beacon Hill.

            Whoever runs in the special election had better remember to campaign in Mattapan, Roxbury, and Dorchester; Coakley did no campaigning there and received no votes from those area.

            And you know what?

            I knew a few people  that lived in those areas that (at least to me) did not look kindly on Martha Coakley on those grounds.

            •  For good reason (6+ / 0-)

              Warren, I think, did her best to avoid that mistake. Coakley ran a terrible campaign in just about every way. And still almost won.

              So it's doable. I just don't think it's in the bag for us. And John Kerry staying put would have avoided the risk, now and in 2014. I don't think Brown would have run against John Kerry in 2014.

              Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

              by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:50:32 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Hope you'll be joining us in the campaign (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          fenway49

          Mass. voters regularly travel to battleground states to campaign.  How about returning the favor?   We could really use your help on the ground this time around.

          And the answer is no, we do not have high profile Democrats with name recognition to run against Brown.  It's just the way it is right now.  Great people, but unknowns.  

          Just be prepared to see Scott Brown back in the Senate and don't blame the voters of Mass.  This was Obama's mess-up.  He knows exactly what the Democratic landscape is in Mass. at this point in time.  

        •  we are telling you we lack depth (0+ / 0-)

          how about listening?  Perhaps we know more about the state of our state than others outside do

          Ma voters very largely fancy themselves as "independant thinkers". Brown plays on that "vote for the person not the party" it's why we had had FOUR Republican Gov's in a row!
          Lots of voters country wide do not pay detailed attention to national politics and how it works

          if they did maybe they'd have cared enought, the Dem leaning ones, to come out in force to oppose Brown the first time so the Senate would remain in Dem hands.

      •  You should be (6+ / 0-)

        But Obama and Kerry obviously don't give a shit.

        Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

        by Paleo on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:49:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  If he's chosen, which isn't confirmed. (0+ / 0-)

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:31:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Brown lost by 7.5%, More than Akin. Will he go (4+ / 0-)

          again? Whats he got to run on ' I'm bi-partisan, except when I'm not, and yer a lyin' injun too! (fill in Dem candidate name)

          How much milage can he get out of his pick up shtick? And he shit canned his nice guy image.

          Of course I'm out in Oregon and the local repug crowd is pretty tough in local and statewide elections even though they haven't won the state nationally in more than 30 yrs.. So good luck to all of us in the 2014.

          •  Hope you're right (4+ / 0-)

            But I live here, know the possible opponents, and see a mid-summer special election as the best possible scenario for Brown. He's got statewide recognition, is still popular (the idea he lost a lot of folks forever with his attack ads strikes me as wishful thinking), and turnout probably will be low. All that favors him.

            Of course Dems won't be caught napping this time, but he's got to start as the favorite. Lots of people in the Mass. suburbs eat up the bipartisan shit.

            Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

            by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:04:58 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  you are right (5+ / 0-)

              I live out just west of 495 and brown is hugely popular here. People are still devastated he lost and are ready and pumped for him to run again (most assumed he would be Gov soon).

              In a special election the turnout in the deep blue parts of Boston will be significantly lower than in November.

              Couple all of that with the deep anti-Boston bias out here in the burbs and it's gonna be a tough run for most of the names being mentioned.

              •  I will say (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Alice Olson

                Coakley almost won. And she ran a terrible (non) campaign. Here in Newton we have a population of 85,000, worth 10 or 12 towns near 495, and we're deep blue. But we'll have to mobilize like hell.

                Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

                by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:43:42 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  But I doubt it. (0+ / 0-)

              This is exactly what the Republicans wanted.  Lots of smiles in the GOP today.

               

          •  What? (6+ / 0-)

            No. Rep. Akin lost by 15.5 points.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:35:39 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  you said it you are in Oregon not here in MA (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Grabber by the Heel

            no offense it gets exhausting pushing back against
            posts out of state relying only on the reputation of MA for being liberal

            you have not seen a Kossack from MA dispute our concerns have you?

            that should indicate something.
            Remember PResidential race the voters are completely different than in off year. Special election in exhausted electorate as we are in MA will have even lower turnout

            lower turnout favors Republicans. Brown is better known than almost every Dem who'd run against him. People are loyal and felt bad they "fired" him for Warren (who was a star). Incumbants are hard to kick out of office here some may feel if Kerry's seat opens it's Brown's ..due to karma...feels right to some people. Brown is very likeable even now to the average voter. He plays on MA thing with "vote for the person not the party" > Remember we had four Republcan Govs in a row

      •  If your furious, be furious at Kerry. (8+ / 0-)

        He knows what's at stake but doesn't seem to mind.

        I'm disappointed in him, frankly.

        "Michael Moore, who was filming a movie about corporate welfare called 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' sought and received incentives."

        by Bush Bites on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:14:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I agree with you completely (8+ / 0-)

        There is no reason to risk a senate seat--and this one is very much at risk.  In a special election we will be at a disadvantage.  If Brown runs, he will be the favorite.  

        Massachusetts progressives know Kerry and know that he is not uniquely qualified for SOS.  He's OK, but c'mon.  The endorsement of Rice by Obama followed by her withdrawal is too familiar a pattern for the Obama administration.  To give in on Rice is ridiculous; to give them an excellent shot at a senate seat is to double down on concessions.

        In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act--Orwell

        by jhannon on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:45:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  What else is new? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Grandma Susie, Alice Olson, jofr

          If it weren't for conceding big things, Obama would do nothing at all.

          Going from 55 to 54, should we lose the seat, is unfortunate. But the real problem (other than my being pissed beyond belief at having Scott Brown back in the Senate) would be 2014.

          I hope we can exceed expectations in the midterms as we did this year, but the MA seat could decide control of the Senate in two years. It's another challenging cycle. Keeping Kerry's seat in Kerry's hands not only now but after 2014 would have been nice.

          Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

          by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:53:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Eh (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          aseth

          I'm not big on Ambassador Rice, nor am I big on Sen. Kerry, and I think the only real point of nominating Hagel would be for an easy confirmation, which the Senate clearly won't give him.

          If Jon Huntsman, Jr., hadn't bolted the administration to run in the Republican presidential primary, I'd tap him for State; honestly, I still might, though I think Susan Eisenhower and Samantha Power are very attractive options as well.

          I like Chuck Hagel, but as I said, he's not worth a big fight. I'd rather see Michele Flournoy at Defense.

          If Power doesn't get State, I like her for UN ambassador. Tom Donilon would be another fine option. So would Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:45:54 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  not to mention... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        aseth, Alice Olson

        the huge money sink this will be, for now reason whatsoever. I'm not giving a dime to this race (but Wall Street sure will), and I'm disinclined to reward this obscene move that validates McCain's drumhead against Susan Rice by giving him exactly what he wanted with any donations in the 2014 cycle either.

        "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

        by JackND on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:13:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  At least you won't get Jan Brewer (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Calamity Jean, Zack from the SFV

        I do blame Obama (somewhat) for letting that creature take the reins of power.

        And God said, "Let there be light"; and with a Big Bang, there was light. And God said "Ow! Ow My eyes!" and in a flash God separated light from darkness. "Whew! Now that's better. Now where was I. Oh yea . . ."

        by Pale Jenova on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:33:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  And why does John Kerry need to be SOS again? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        aseth

        Because he wants to?

        There are a lot better candidates out there.

        "The two pioneering forces of modern sensibility are Jewish moral seriousness and homosexual aestheticism and irony." Susan Sontag

        by Shane Hensinger on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:42:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  would have recced except for the "indited" part (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fenway49

        but I must say I'm pretty pissed myself.  People have no idea what the situation is here.

        •  Tee hee (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          cordgrass, Calamity Jean

          I was hoping for a while it would not come to this. And I was pissed upon learning this news.

          If a Democrat had been elected to the Senate in Wyoming or Utah in a freak special election, then defeated in a hard-fought race to return that seat to the Republicans, do we really think George W. Bush would have opened up the other Senate seat in that state not five weeks later?

          Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

          by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 07:39:18 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Markey, then Kennedy. n/t (0+ / 0-)

      "Michael Moore, who was filming a movie about corporate welfare called 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' sought and received incentives."

      by Bush Bites on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:11:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  He's baaaaack...! (0+ / 0-)

      "Round up the usual suspects"

      by NanaoKnows on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:03:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  You forgot the biggest! (3+ / 0-)

    Bob Massie!

  •  I'm for luring Meehan into the fight. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave in Northridge, wishingwell

    Even though its been more than a few cycles since he ran, having somebody coming out of Lowell is a strength. And like brownsox says, he's got a cash hoard to he could hit the ground running.

    Markey I'd take, for sure, but I too worry if he's got the fight in him for a tough hard fought battle.

  •  Welcome back! (Exams over?) (11+ / 0-)

    I want Patrick to appoint someone who wouldn't be a caretaker, but who could be strong enough to clear the field  and avoid a messy primary (and win the general).

    And I'm still pissed at Meeham because of this.

    •  Yeah, I'm not crazy about Meehan (0+ / 0-)

      I think Gov. Patrick would have to appoint a strong ally of Sen. Kerry who is popular and would be hard to run against. Barring Vicki Kennedy, that person might be Ayanna Pressley -- but I'm sure that the likes of Reps. Capuano, Lynch, and Markey would cry foul over being passed over for a Boston city councilor (even if Pressley does represent a larger constituency than any of them do). Pressley might clear the field, and Patrick might walk away looking pretty smart, but I think it would engender at least as much resentment toward him from ambitious members of the congressional delegation as appointing Capuano, Lynch (ha), or Markey would.

      My guess is Patrick does appoint a placeholder, and there is a contested primary for the special election.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:15:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  If you don't play along with the machine... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Seneca Doane, Sylv, JBraden, pademocrat

        the machine will sit out and figure they'll just take Brown on again in 2014.  

        We NEED to clear the field and keep everybody happy some how - otherwise we'll spend millions against each other while Brown raises millions to build his warchest.  

        Hell can we rat fuck and run a Dem in the Repub primary against Brown?

        They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:30:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's why Pressley is probably my preference (0+ / 0-)

          I think she'd be a bit less strong in the general against someone with suburban appeal -- not weak, per se, but not as strong as a talented non-Boston Democrat might be -- but I still think she'd win. And I think if she were appointed, she'd have strong support from her mentor and former boss, Sen. Kerry, as well as from Mayor Menino's political machine and from women's groups, which would basically make her bulletproof against a primary challenge. Plus Gov. Patrick wouldn't be in the position of choosing one congressman over another for the appointment.

          I find Massachusetts statewide officials except for Patrick himself to be incredibly meh and have no interest in seeing any of them in higher office. Of course, I don't have a lot of influence on Patrick's thinking.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:37:03 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think we'll raise millions so easily. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jofr

          lots of people happily donated to Warren, and were eager to get rid of Brown. This is an unforced error gift to the GOP. People are gonna be less enthusiastic to reward that sort of thing with money.

          •  I think Rep. Markey... (0+ / 0-)

            Would get a fair amount of support. But he opted out of the special election for Ted Kennedy's seat because he couldn't clear the field, and if he can't get an appointment outright this time or clear the field if a placeholder is named, I'm not sure he has the fire in the belly to deal with a contested -- perhaps even chaotic -- primary.

            If Gov. Patrick doesn't appoint a strong Democrat who isn't just a placeholder -- I like Pressley, as I've mentioned, though of course the strongest possible appointee would be Patrick himself -- then I do hope Markey runs. But I don't know if Markey wants to end up running against Rep. Capuano; if Markey and Capuano are both in, Rep. Lynch may run, hoping Markey and Capuano split the progressive vote to give him a shot at sneaking through; if there are two or three members of Congress in the race, a Democrat from the business community and/or someone like Carmen Ortiz who is not an "insider" may see an opportunity to run themselves; if the field looks big enough that name recognition alone could be the key to victory, a statewide elected official like Treasurer Grossman, Lt. Gov. Murray, or Atty. Gen. Coakley (ugh) could enter as well.

            I'm hoping for a strong appointee. I just don't see how the field clears without one. There are a lot of Democrats in Massachusetts, and a lot of them are going to see this as perhaps their only good chance for a long while to move up.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 01:35:44 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Or don't have any more $$ to give (0+ / 0-)

            The last election was very expensive for lots of folks.  I know we don't have another penny to donate to any candidate for any race.  Tapped out.  Just don't have it.  .

    •  Ha ha ha. He has his (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Adam B

      admin exam on Monday.

  •  On paper, Grossman seems like the strongest (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sychotic1, democrattotheend

    candidate. He has won statewide and could raise a lot of money.

  •  I'm fine with this... (3+ / 0-)

    I think we can win. Markey would be great. I kind of like the idea of Carmen Ortiz...why not have Mass follow New Hampshire in having both Senators women? But I don't know much about her, though what little I know sounds good.

    FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes. I Had A Thought

    by mole333 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:13:16 PM PST

  •  Can we stop acting as if Brown was superman and (29+ / 0-)

    start acknowledge that Coackley ran a shitty and lazy campaign? She was leading him by 30pts but instead of campaigning, she went on a 2 week vacations and ran no ads.

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:27:13 PM PST

    •  She ran a shitty campaign (10+ / 0-)

      because she didn't take Brown seriously and too many people assumed Mass was "safe" for Dems.  So yes, let's not act like he is superman but let's not underestimate him either.

    •  Coakley (6+ / 0-)

      Took the seat for granted, so she acted like Nero and fiddled while Brown was burning up the state campaigning.  Vickie Kennedy should have ran but didn't.  She would have creamed Brown but I don't think she wanted the seat then or now.  

      We need to make sure that whoever runs we back fully.  I don't think Brown will run for Governor simply because he'd have to work unlike the Senate seat where he can just vote Yea or Ney and talk about all the kings and queens he's hosting while wearing his barn jacket, driving his pick-up and doing Indian dances.

      Never be afraid to voice your opinion and fight for it . Corporations aren't people, they're Republicans (Rev Al Sharpton 10/7/2011)

      by Rosalie907 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:10:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The Boston machine went on strike (3+ / 0-)

      when westerner Coakley got the nod.  That's the difference.  No one -- except for the Bostonians themselves -- seems to have expected that.

      Plaintiffs' Employment Law Attorney (harassment, discrimination, retaliation, whistleblowing, wage & hour, &c.) in North Orange County, CA.

      "I love this goddamn country, and we're going to take it back."
      -- Saul Alinsky

      by Seneca Doane on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:02:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe they went on a week's vacation? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pistolSO, LaurenMonica

        "Michael Moore, who was filming a movie about corporate welfare called 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' sought and received incentives."

        by Bush Bites on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:19:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Huh? She's spent her entire (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CF of Aus, Alice Olson

        adult life in eastern Massachusetts. The Boston machine went on strike because she was as incompetent and lazy about asking for support there as she was among rank and file voters.

        •  She grew up and attended school in the west (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV

          and was based in Middlesex rather than Suffolk County and -- more to the point -- was not considered part of, and was highly disfavored by, the Boston political machine.  I recall her being described dismissively as a "westerner" or some other term meaning "not one of us" at the time, even though Middlesex borders Suffolk.

          What you call "incompetent and lazy" I might call not wanting to swear fealty to Menino's machine on the false presumption that they wouldn't actually dare to fail to work to put a Democrat into the U.S. Senate.  (Surprise!)

          In any event, we agree that they went on strike even if we don't agree on why -- and you don't really need to go far beyond the failure to activate local GOTV efforts to explain her loss.  Menino does his job -- and yes, it was his job to do -- and she wins.  Not wanting to ensconce her in the U.S. Senate, for his own reasons (even to the detriment of the national party) he didn't.  End of explanation.  The point here is that if he does his job this time, Brown does lose.

          Plaintiffs' Employment Law Attorney (harassment, discrimination, retaliation, whistleblowing, wage & hour, &c.) in North Orange County, CA.

          "I love this goddamn country, and we're going to take it back."
          -- Saul Alinsky

          by Seneca Doane on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 10:31:18 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Menino was a side issue. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            fenway49

            And I note that your argument slid, from Boston to local GOTV networks more generally. If it was local GOTV networks more generally, then Coakley's failure to activate those is not a matter of Menino being a jerk. If no local GOTV network in the state was effectively mobilized,  you have to look at the thing they all had in common, and that was outreach by a lousy campaign.

            Nor can you claim that not having presidential year turnout in one city is the decisive factor in an election; if anyone planned on presidential year turnout in Boston, that was incompetence.

            Looking at the results for the special, if turnout in Suffolk had been the same as turnout in Berkshire, where, in a fact you're giving outsized importance, Coakley grew up, that would have been around 17,000 extra votes total, not all of which would have gone to Coakley. Looking at 2012, Warren's margin over Brown in Suffolk was 127k votes, give or take. Coakley's margin over Brown in Suffolk was 115k votes, give or take. Not enough to make the difference, even if you do drop presidential year turnout into that one county.

            The fact that Coakley didn't do as well as she should in Middlesex -- where there are like three times as many votes as there are in Suffolk, by the way, making it not a bad place to launch a statewide political career -- is an issue.

            I had an extremely good look at what was going on in the Coakley campaign, and trust me, it was incompetence. And arrogance. I'd add arrogance, at every level up and down the campaign.

            •  Urgh, math is important. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              fenway49

              I put Coakley's Suffolk total in 2010 as her margin, which is obviously wrong. Nonetheless, Warren's margin minus Coakley's margin was not enough to change the result of the 2010 election.

            •  For whom were Menino's people rooting (0+ / 0-)

              (I won't say "working," just "rooting") in the special election: Coakley or Brown?  You had an extremely good look at the campaign; you probably know.

              What I heard is that they thought that less than two years of Brown were better than an entrenched Coakley.

              I disagree with the methodology of just toting up counties -- unless you think that the influence of Mayor Menino and his allies literally stops at the city -- or heck, I'll even grant you the county -- border.  My guess -- and I didn't have an extremely good look, but judging from my experience in other states -- is that the influence of the dominant party power in the state's largest city probably extends beyond that.

              This brings me back to my initial question.

              Plaintiffs' Employment Law Attorney (harassment, discrimination, retaliation, whistleblowing, wage & hour, &c.) in North Orange County, CA.

              "I love this goddamn country, and we're going to take it back."
              -- Saul Alinsky

              by Seneca Doane on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 02:18:59 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Agree. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LaurenMonica

      I would have had trouble voting for Lazy Martha.

      "Michael Moore, who was filming a movie about corporate welfare called 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' sought and received incentives."

      by Bush Bites on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:17:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Just don't nominate a placeholder (5+ / 0-)

    Pick a strong candidate, and a good Senator.  No reason to give the Republicans any more help than they already have gotten here.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:28:51 PM PST

  •  Brown beats all those folks. (0+ / 0-)

    Problem with Markey is a charisma deficit.  He's only three years older than Elizabeth Warren, but he's is an old 66yo whereas Warren is a young 63.  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:29:12 PM PST

    •  Not under normal circumstances he doesn't (7+ / 0-)

      What people forget is that his win was basically a fluke, it's not like he's like Heidi Heitkamp or one of the type who won without any sort of special circumstances. Martha Coakley didn't run a good campaign, that's why Brown won. Besides, he's lost as an incumbent, that doesn't help much.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:39:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  These are not "normal" circumstances (6+ / 0-)

        It's another compressed special election, not in November, with no other races (certainly not Presidential) on the ballot. Brown just got almost 1.5 votes for the same job he'd be running for. He has statewide recognition, important in a low-info special, none of the Dems can match coming in. It's the best possible race for him and it's not going to be easy.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:44:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Being an incumbent helps more than it hurts (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jofr

        He didn't make any drastic mistakes.  He's no longer an unknown, and people have experience with him being their senator.

        Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

        by Paleo on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:52:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, he made a drastic mistake. (4+ / 0-)

          He jumped the shark by attacking Warren over the heritage snafu in 1-2 ads featuring Caucasians.  And he's not an incumbent anymore.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:29:44 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't think that landed on enough voters (0+ / 0-)

            hard enough

            if you are in MA we disagree
            if you are outside, ,you may not have a clear view

            loosing by eight points to a nationally known star if you are a REpublican...i a Presidential election year...in MA that is not a big margin

            people like Brown still

    •  Brown beat Coackley bcz she ran a shitty campaign (12+ / 0-)

      How do you lose by 6 to someone you were leading by 30pts just weeks before the election? I will tell you how, by not campaigning, by not running ads, and by taking TWO weeks vacations instead of campaigning.

      Thats why Brown won. Instead of defining him, Coackley took 2 weeks of vacations. She ran no ads until Reid stepped in a week before the election.

      "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

      by LaurenMonica on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:48:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sure, but now Brown is well known himself... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Paleo, fenway49, Danali, JBraden

        and still seen favorably even when losing to Warren.  

        They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:51:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  His approval was btw 40-45% in november. Hardly (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TomP, stevenaxelrod, wishingwell

          popular. And he lost with 45%. Thats his ceiling

          "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

          by LaurenMonica on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:54:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, in a high turnout election (7+ / 0-)

            Which this won't be.

            Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

            by Paleo on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:53:35 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Turnout (5+ / 0-)

              is the problem. We can work hard to boost turnout, but a special election happens in a short timeframe and will never match turnout in a Presidential election. Warren cleaned up due to high turnout in heavily Dem areas. The kind of turnout we had in 2012 is hard to replicate.

              Numbers: In the 2012 Warren-Brown race, there were 3.13 million votes cast. In the January 2010 Brown-Coakley race and the November 2010 governor's race there were almost identical totals: 2.25 million. That means the 2012 race drew almost 40 percent more voters than either of those races.

              We had the "Democratic turnout machine" in the 2010 Governor's race/midterms. Didn't produce anything like what you see when the President's on the ballot, especially in our strongest Democratic areas. That's why I'm concerned.

              Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

              by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:01:33 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  And yet, in 2010 of all years (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                pistolSO, condorcet

                Republicans could not win any statewide office, Cong. race, and even lost ground in the State Senate.

                Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:04:04 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  A few reasons for it (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  willyr, GayHillbilly, pademocrat

                  The Democratic party is strong here, it's true. And Democratic turnout, though lower than 2012, was better here than in most other places.

                  But the GOP had a pretty good shot at Governor. In the end Baker ran a poor campaign, the Governor's an electric speaker, and there was the third party Tim Cahill factor. He won 8% of the vote. Not all taken from Baker and the GOP, but probably most since he ran as fiscal conservative/social moderate-to-liberal, same as Baker.

                  Our House districts are pretty well gerrymandered (were then and still are, though Frank's dislike of his new district helped prompt his retirement).

                  Looking at the State Senate, remember not all Democrats are created alike. The Dems hold huge majorities in both houses but can't get pretty basic progressive things done. A lot of those Dems are fairly conservative.

                  Most importantly, Brown was not on the ballot in Nov. 2010. Don't get me wrong: Scott Brown is not Superman. He can be beaten again. But the 2010 victories had as much to do with the horrid state of the Mass. GOP as with anything else. And Scott Brown is the one exception to that. I think he'll be a challenge in a special election.

                  Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

                  by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:18:52 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Don't forget the Auditor race (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    pistolSO, condorcet

                    Suzanne Bump vs. Mary Conaughton (although the Green Party leeched away 100K voters).

                    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                    by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:31:24 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

              •  73 percent turnout in MA I heard (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                fenway49

                highest ever

                •  80,000 more people (0+ / 0-)

                  voted in the 2012 Warren-Brown race than voted in the 2008 Presidential race in Massachusetts. Turnout was tremendous this November.

                  Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

                  by fenway49 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 06:34:24 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

          •  46% was his vote total (0+ / 0-)

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:28:12 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  No rockstars in this field, that's for sure. Excep (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LaurenMonica, kurious

    Joe III, but he's way too young and probably wants to be governor.

  •  Thanks, Arjun, for what ought to be (7+ / 0-)

    ...the gold standard for all diaries speculating about what candidacies. Not just diaries at Daily Kos and across the left blogosphere, but in the traditional media as well (as if that would ever happen).

    Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

    by Meteor Blades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:29:28 PM PST

  •  What about Rachel Maddow? (5+ / 0-)

    No not really. But Brown was scared enough of her challenging him last time that he made issue of it and got her to state she wouldn't challenge for his seat.  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:32:12 PM PST

  •  Thanks for the run down (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, stevenaxelrod, JBraden, pademocrat

    I suspect that this special won't go as badly as the last. Brown can't be taken lightly as he was then and Democrats simply have the numerical and organizational advantage... all they need to do is put forth a quality candidate and then activate that advantage. I would strongly suggest one of the more name brand candidates amongst the long time congressmen who also come with cash on hand.

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:33:47 PM PST

  •  Markey would be OK (0+ / 0-)

    I'd prefer Jim McGovern. Would do well in Central Mass, where he's known and Dems generally run weak. Excellent on human rights and environmental issues, genuinely progressive. Much younger than Markey but plenty seasoned enough.

    Meehan: No. Just no.
    JPK III: Too young, just got elected to House.
    Ortiz: No. She's controversial over a number of cases the AUSA's office has run.

    Some of the others (Grossman, Massie) I like, but doubt they have the machinery or name recognition/resume needed to beat Scott Brown, should he run.

    Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

    by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:35:14 PM PST

  •  Ortiz sounds good (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Frameshift

    An outsider is a good bet and I think she could build establishment support, just because Democrats would want to hold the seat. Brown would be almost a pseudo-incumbent against an outsider who isn't part of the machine.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:46:40 PM PST

  •  Great. Let's undo the work of November (10+ / 0-)

    and put Scott Brown right back in the senate.

    Smart move.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:36:14 PM PST

  •  Brown won in 2009 with 1.168M votes... (9+ / 0-)

    Lost in 2012 with 1.458M votes.  

    Total votes cast in Special Election was 2.223M votes, in this past November's GE - 3.154M

    Brown beat Coakley by 100K votes, lost to Warren by 250K votes.  

    Brown is FAR from unpopular.  He's the odds-on favorite.  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:59:46 PM PST

    •  No he is not. (4+ / 0-)

      He lost and in small part to the fact his campaign strategy turned into a childish farce near the end.  Consider the fact Warren won by 7-8% spread despite being new to campaigns.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:26:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He hurt his brand with some of those attacks (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, wishingwell

        he went from being intimidatingly "popular" to just plain liked.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:27:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree with you (0+ / 0-)

          he's less "intimidatingly" popular than before, but I just don't think his favorability took that much of a tumble. Nor do I think it's permanent. A lot of voters who aren't political junkies forget. Each race stands on its own and if he makes nice they'll think he's nice all over again.

          Warren was new to campaigns but a nationally known figure revered on the left. The numbers show she benefited enormously from running in a Presidential year, which boosted turnout and anti-GOP sentiment in Mass. Another special election is the polar opposite of that.

          Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

          by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:26:00 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Don't confuse us with real numbers. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fenway49, evangeline135
  •  Not to mention Menendez becomes FR Chair... (5+ / 0-)

    The Cuba Embargo hardliner.  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:02:06 PM PST

  •  Do we know HRC's exit timeline? (3+ / 0-)

    It may or may not be important. What if she is determined to "tie up certain loose ends" and expects that will take until Late Spring/Early Summer?

    Does a Special Election that ends up happening on the November Election Day along with the "Big City" Mayorals, NJ and VA Governor races matter?

    When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:08:50 PM PST

    •  Well, she's apparently pretty sick right now (0+ / 0-)

      Not sure with what. But I have to think that if it's serious enough that she's passing out and hitting her head -- hopefully not breaking any Steuben glass pitchers in the process -- that might accelerate her timetable for withdrawal from the Cabinet.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:20:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  My best guess here is this: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, Pale Jenova

      -Clinton leaves in February.
      -Kerry gets a speedy confirmation in Feb-March.
      -Patrick appoints successor in March
      -Democratic Primary in May
      -The special election itself is in July.

      July wouldn't have a snowstorm like the last special election had, and our hurricane season(if it comes to that) is August or later.   So July shouldn't have too much weather-related problems other than maybe the heat or if it rains(which would depress turnout a little).

      Washington and Colorado said that you've got to legalize it. Hope the DOJ respects that.

      by pistolSO on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:22:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Is anyone else the tiniest bit uneasy about the (3+ / 0-)

    way conversation always swings back quickly to another Kennedy? Not that I am not very fond of Ted, RFK and JFK, but...

    •  Yes, dammit. (4+ / 0-)

      And thank you for saying it.  Either one of them might turn out to be an excellent senator, but I'd like to elect my officials on their own merits, and when I've had a chance to see their work, not based on who their relatives are and (therefore) how much money they can raise.

      And no matter how good these particular Kennedys might be, pushing their candidacies because of the name is the same kind of thinking and social pattern that results in having Luke Russert on my television.  It's not a place we should really want to be going as a society.

    •  Yeah, me too (0+ / 0-)

      It was, for me, the biggest problem I had with Hillary Clinton in 2008.  I don't like the legacy thing.  

      If a son or daughter of a former whatever goes out and does something before running for office, which some members of the Kennedy clan have done, I have less of a problem with it.  

  •  A Kerry appointment is irresponsible, and (13+ / 0-)

    there are a number of other qualified people.  

    If we are forced into another special election, Scott Brown will win, John McCain will have won, and the Republicans will have won.

    I pray the White House is rethinking this.  It should not be just about what Kerry deserves, it's also about what the rest of the country deserves.  

    •  He won't win. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bush Bites

      He's not quite as popular anymore and lost by a greater percentage than he won last time and against a new campaigner.  Can he win (if he runs, which is hard to say certainly)? Yes.  Is it likely?  No.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:41:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I note you're from NJ. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fenway49

        Folks from Mass. are expressing a lot of upset here.  Please think about that.  We know our state and the possible candidates who could run against Brown.

        We have excellent people, but they have little name recognition.

      •  you know so much so difiniively seemingly (0+ / 0-)

        yet you are not in MA arguing with people who are
        it seems

        frustrating

        if you are out of state you do lack the data others have no matter how smart your analysis might be it is based on not all the data

    •  I agree, this really pisses............... (10+ / 0-)

      me off. Here we are supposed to have the improved BHO who is willing to stand up to the Rethugs but he rewards McCain/Lindsey with what have wanted all along; a vacated Democratic Senate Seat.  Granted Kerry is well qualified, would sail through confirmation and make a great SOS; but he is giving the ASSHOLES what they wanted.

      Leave Kerry in the Senate and appoint another to SOS like Wes Clark.  Rethugs behaving badly should not be rewarded

      The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation--HDT

      by cazcee on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:47:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Kerry is the best choice for SS at the moment.. (5+ / 0-)

      to pass him over for this key cabinet post because of some "concern" that MA goes back to Brown is just plain stupid.

      I want someone at State that has some FP creds....and Kerry at this point, has them.

      •  Others are qualified, and I don't agree that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        condorcet

        Kerry is the best choice, given his all-in support for Bush's invasion of Iraq.  That was a serious misjudgment.  Then he chose John Edwards as his VP, giving in to political pressure against his own instincts  - that also doesn't speak well of him.  

      •  Question (0+ / 0-)

        Apart from concerns about the return of Scott Brown, I have no problems with Kerry for Secretary of State.

        But I am curious.  Why would anyone in his position want any cabinet post, even State?  I'm thinking that US Senator is the third best job in all of government after president and supreme court justice.  And on top of that, it's more work, more bullshit, more doing what your told.

        What's the appeal?

      •  Why do you think that? (0+ / 0-)

        I just don't get it.  Kerry looks great but isn't all that effective.
        It's simply not worth the risk.

      •  to be fair it is not a "concern" it is very likely (0+ / 0-)

        and if you were in MA you would likely perceive this

        Sure, the rest of your argument is sound but people in MA have more data on the part of Brown's likely win.

        So, the equation is different for us we have more data. Can't tell if Obama Reid etc are in denial of this truth or simply hoping OR they think a likely loss is worth it

        It may be worth a loss of a Senate seat. If Brown wins it will be hard to get him out MA voters are very loyal they barely (for MA) ousted him. REpublican loosing by eight pts in presidential year to a star Dem is NOT a landslide...Obama won by twenty five pts or so here remember

  •  Just crazy if we lose another Senate seat (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mchestnutjr, fenway49

    in Mass. to the GOP.

    Please let's not let this happen. Look at the turmoil in the Senate last time this happened.

    Almost like John McCain planned it this way to be super paranoid about Susan Rice attacks.

    •  Obama wants a strong leader for SoS (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      democrattotheend, wishingwell, willyr

      He needs success at foreign policy like Clinton delivered. Call it selfish, but he wants the best person available so he can focus on domestic issues. Obama is willing to risk the the seat and tell Mass "It's up to you guys to keep it."

      "I can't believe that the noblest instict of man - his compassion for another - can be completley dead here". Col. Dax - Paths of Glory.

      by renewables on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:53:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He can't focus (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        condorcet

        on domestic issues with a weakened Senate. If we lose the seat. He's got a GOP House and 55 Senate votes. The 55 will include Joe Donnelly, Tom Carper and Mary Landrieu (not progressive), Tim Kaine (not particularly progressive), etc. Senate seats are not something to risk giving away if domestic policy is what you want to move.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:30:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Right or wrong - it looks like a done deal (0+ / 0-)

          So many multiple sources are saying Kerry is in that it looks like that ship has sailed.

          It really may have been Kerry all along and Rice was only being considered.

          He may have had too much success in 2012. Remeber at the beginning of the election season it looked like the Dems would be lucky to have 52 seats much less 55.

          "I can't believe that the noblest instict of man - his compassion for another - can be completley dead here". Col. Dax - Paths of Glory.

          by renewables on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:46:42 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Kerry is not a strong leader (0+ / 0-)

        And his "love" for foreign policy doesn't qualify him to lead the massive apparatus that is the Department of State.

        "The two pioneering forces of modern sensibility are Jewish moral seriousness and homosexual aestheticism and irony." Susan Sontag

        by Shane Hensinger on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 08:21:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  John Kerry is not a strong leader (0+ / 0-)
  •  no James McGovern? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    willyr, fenway49

    Bumper sticker seen on I-95; "Stop Socialism" my response: "Don't like socialism? GET OFF the Interstate highway!"

    by Clytemnestra on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:44:23 PM PST

    •  He'd be my pick (0+ / 0-)

      Though Markey's fine.

      Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

      by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:30:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Forget Weld, he's old (67). Capuano is great, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aurora in canada, cordgrass

    I think he has the right personality and solid progressive-Dem background and the kick-ass drive to fight and win.  Outsiders don't know him well but a lot of us in MA do know him.  I think he has a better chance than it might seem at the outset.  Deval Patrick, I'm actually less sure -- his performance as Gov is viewed very mixed when you get outside Boston.  

    •  Right - surprised at no talk of him here (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cordgrass, Torta

      Don't underestimate Capuano.  He's a fighter and totally inoculated against the "regular guy against Hahvad pointy heads" class warfare schtick Brown used against Warren  -- an ugly, recurring, and little noticed undercurrent in supposedly liberal Massachusetts.

      As for Brown, I wish he'd run for governor If he won (Patrick followed 16 years of Republicans) he'd do less damage there than as a Republican appartchnik in the Senate. But he's not exactly known for liking the heavy lifting.

    •  Capuano would be great (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gravitas

      Voted for him in the Primary in 2010.  Bet he would have beaten Brown too.  

  •  Arjun, it's a bit crazy to suggest Caroline (0+ / 0-)

    Kennedy?  Senator Kerry, and Senator McCain, seem hell bent on reversing the will of voters.  I'll stand against their grab at power.  Of course, I'm an optimist.

  •  No one wants to fantasize about Romney? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    condorcet

    Former Gov and all that.

  •  Surprised Keating doesn't get more attention (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    I have absolutely no idea if he's interested but he could be a compelling candidate.  He hails from a part of the state Brown's done very well in and has some recent experience winning tough races; he won a close 2010 primary and held the old MA-10, a swingy seat in a tough year (albeit against a very flawed GOPer).  The new MA-09's also pretty blue so we shouldn't need to worry about losing it.

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), new LA-01 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:56:36 PM PST

    •  Keating is still relatively new to Congress (0+ / 0-)

      I'd rather see him stay in Congress for a while to build that up(Keating was also Norfok County's DA before he ran for Congress).

      But Markey's the best Massachusetts Congressperson to run for it(Tsongas might have more state-wide recognition but she's Blue Dog lite).

      Washington and Colorado said that you've got to legalize it. Hope the DOJ respects that.

      by pistolSO on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:29:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  What? (0+ / 0-)

        Niki Tsongas was rated the 11th most liberal congressperson last session. You really need to get your facts straight. I mean, my god.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:51:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'll admit that my information on that was (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          fenway49

          more than two years old, and was based on what a friend told me.   Tsongas will be my Congressperson starting this January so I'll familiarize myself with her voting record.

          I do have a better grasp on everyone else in the Massachusetts delegation.   And Lynch is my least favorite because he voted No on the exact Senate version of Obamacare before it underwent reconciliation.

          Washington and Colorado said that you've got to legalize it. Hope the DOJ respects that.

          by pistolSO on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 09:44:52 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  This is a sad day for Massachusetts and the Senate (7+ / 0-)

    I'm glad for Senator Kerry if he's getting a job he's long wanted, but this is a huge loss for us.

    Please visit: http://www.jkmediasource.org

    by Noisy Democrat on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:00:22 PM PST

  •  I think Susan Rice should be appointed. (0+ / 0-)

    Karma worked well that last time.

    Politifact, the lie of the year is. - Yoda

    by gakke on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:01:02 PM PST

    •  NO! (0+ / 0-)

      As far as I know, she isn't a Massachusetts resident.

      I'd rather Patrick appoint who the MDP thinks should be the nominee or a clear caretaker like former Congressman Joe Kennedy II(the Joe 4 Oil guy) or Vicki Kennedy.

      Washington and Colorado said that you've got to legalize it. Hope the DOJ respects that.

      by pistolSO on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:34:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He appointed a clear caretaker (Kirk) last time (0+ / 0-)

        and while that obviously didn't cost Dems the subsequent election, it also didn't help.

        Incumbency--even incumbency that results from an appointment--can be a powerful thing.

  •  Have you ever done ... (11+ / 0-)

    a piece re President Obama's tendency to create election nightmares for the Democratic Party via his appointments. Putting aside Clinton, which was a held seat, his own seat (Kirk), the close call due to his VP choice, how about:

    * Salazar -- TOUGH RACE
    * Napolitano -- put a lunatic in Governor's office and led to a R seat in the Senate assuming Janet would have (as most thought) run
    * Sebelius -- put governor into R hands and, again, led to a R seat in the Senate assuming she would have (as most thought) run

    And, now Kerry: safe/strong seats that are put into the mix, requiring serious resources to fight over and creating real risk for a R win.

    Now, John Kerry will likely be a strong SecState. And, well, in my mix (climate change, energy), he is perhaps the best pick that we might have expected from President Obama.  

    Blogging regularly at Get Energy Smart NOW! for a sustainable energy future.

    by A Siegel on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:01:57 PM PST

    •  Do you think he'll be able to do more on climate (0+ / 0-)

      change as SoS than he would have in the Senate? I'm grasping for silver linings. To me it's looking like he's throwing away years of his career for a short-term gig. If I think we can expect great things from SoS Kerry, I'll cheer up, a little.

      Please visit: http://www.jkmediasource.org

      by Noisy Democrat on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:08:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kerry's 69. He'll be almost 74 by the time (0+ / 0-)

        a prospective term as SOS is up.  While that's still young in Senate years, it would hardly be surprising if he was anticipating a nice capstone to his career, followed by sweet retirement.

      •  Totally uncertain ... (0+ / 0-)

        If, as a member of the Cabinet, he becomes a strong voice for changed Administration policy and increased Presidential engagement with success that changes national approaches in negotiations and in action, then the payoff could be huge.

        On the other hand, he is a senior senator who likely would have remained in the Senate through at least 2020.  Losing a senior, skilled, Senator who 'gets it' re climate change issues with a risk that the seat could be Republican ...

        In political terms, putting aside Kerry, I find the impact of the Administration appointments on the Senate (and the entire Senate electoral world) to be an issue worthy of discussion/examination/consideration.  How much weaker is the Democratic Party in the Senate due to these appointments?  (And, count Napolitano and Sebelius in the number -- if they weren't in the Admin, would they have run for / won Senate seats? And, include the question of how much money/how many resources had to go to defend seats that remained D but became open due to the appointments. And ...)

        Blogging regularly at Get Energy Smart NOW! for a sustainable energy future.

        by A Siegel on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 03:30:20 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Kerry could be a great Secretary of State (0+ / 0-)

      especially if he helps us---the U.S.---and the world on climate change, as he has suggested he might.

      While the politics of putting a Democratic Senate seat in jeopardy are frustrating, if I were the president I guess I'd have to think globally, worry about locally tomorrow.

      Resist much, obey little. ~~Edward Abbey, via Walt Whitman

      by willyr on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:24:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Sebelius Pick Wasn't Election Nightmare (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      Actually, picking Sebelius wasn't, in and of itself, a bad thing. It gave her LG, moderate-Republican-turned-Democrat Mark Parkinson, some time in the Governor's chair, built up his popularity and name rec, and positioned him very well for the governor's race against Brownback...if he'd friggin' run for it.

      Basically, Parkinson was the only Kansas Democrat in 2010 who could've possibly beaten Brownback, but he didn't run. That's not Obama's fault. And Sebelius was/is an excellent choice for the job.

      Also, it's unlikely that even Sebelius could've won a race for the Senate in 2010, 2012, or ever. Kansas has elected plenty of Democrats as Governor (to balance Republicans in the Legislature) but in national elections goes heavily Republican. I mean, the state hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1934. (!)

      Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

      by arealmc on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 05:39:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for the perspective / insight (0+ / 0-)

        I am distant from the situation, but I saw this as disaster from moment 1.  Sibelius was successfully winning a knock-down/drag-out fight re coal plants which flipped to supporting the polluter position from the Governor's office the second Parkinson was sworn in.

        RE 'distant', I will grant that you likely know more about the state politics but my read on the polling/such back when strongly suggested she could make a real run.  However, considering Tea Party-ite power in 10, far more unlikely a chance to win the seat than what was projected in spring '09.

        Blogging regularly at Get Energy Smart NOW! for a sustainable energy future.

        by A Siegel on Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 12:51:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  obama will do (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fenway49

    the expedient thing and will have no concern how it will affect the senate, the campaign is over and so is his interest in a fight.

  •  Joe Kennedy - not the one who just got elected (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Danali, Notreadytobenice

    but his father who held that seat in the late 80's was kicking himself for not running in the first race against Brown.  I think we need someone other than the folks who ran last time. Patrick, Joe Kennedy or, possibly, Vicki Kennedy.

    •  Patrick lives in RI (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pistolSO

      Joe Kennedy II hasn't been in Congress since 1998 and there's still some fallout over his annulment issue. We need to do very well with women to win this.

      He also had a hand in eliminating Glass-Steagall and could be vulnerable, silly as it is, on Chavez due to his home heating work. Also some degree of Kennedy fatigue/resentment in many quarters and he can be a bit abrasive, though I like him. I think if he didn't run for Ted's seat he's not running now.

      I respect Vicki a lot but she has never run for anything and could be attacked on entitlement grounds (only qualification is being Ted's widow, etc.). Not at all sure she'd beat Brown.

      Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

      by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:35:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm Not Worried (0+ / 0-)

    The people of Massachusetts have wised up to Scott Brown's "bipartisan" bullshit. If the Democrats don't put up someone completely incompetent, they'll hold on.

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:10:17 PM PST

    •  Brown is pretty popular here.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cordgrass

      He lost because of the Senate composition - but it was not a foregone conclusion.

      •  Can you explain what you mean? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Notreadytobenice

        I have no idea what you mean when you say "He lost because of the Senate composition".

        Not sure why he would win after just having lost.

        •  if the Dem majority in the Senate is safe, he (0+ / 0-)

          might get more votes.  He's very popular here.

          •  OK, so I guess that means that MA wants a Dem (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Bush Bites

            Senate, but is OK with a Republican senator, one that they jsut kicked to the curb... very odd... I'm in Texas and it's a lot easier to predict these things here. :)

            •  I don't buy it. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jj32, Zack from the SFV

              Nobody votes that strategically.

              He lost because he was a dick in the debates, imho.

              I don't think he can undo the dickishness that people remember, either.

              Not that he can't win, but once you're tarnished, it's hard to get the new-pol shine back.

              "Michael Moore, who was filming a movie about corporate welfare called 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' sought and received incentives."

              by Bush Bites on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:01:50 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Not so sure (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                cordgrass, jofr

                I don't see the not-tuned-in voters I saw on the trail remembering, in July, that he was a dick last October. I just don't think he killed his brand that much.

                I think he's dangerous because it will be very hard to match 2012 turnout, especially in Dem areas, in a special election.

                Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

                by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:13:38 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  The Warren campaign (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                cordgrass, aseth

                thought people voted that strategically. They made much of potential GOP control of the Senate. I don't think it was the biggest factor but I'm sure some people, on the fence, went Warren for that reason.

                Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

                by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:17:17 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  It helped against Linc Chafee. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  aseth, Zack from the SFV

                  Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                  by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:33:10 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  It's true (3+ / 0-)

                    It also helped Kerry, a lot, against Bill Weld back in 1996. He brought up Jesse Helms in their debates. The then-new GOP Congress of Gingrich days was not liked in MA.

                    Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

                    by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:48:21 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  It can still work to a degree. (0+ / 0-)

                      I think we're jumping the gun when the announcement has not been made and I'm not 100% sure Kerry is the pick.  But, unlike Jan. 2010, Democrats don't control the House so a Republican selling themselves as a counterbalance won't have quite as much weight, particularly if they are nominally anti-choice and only votes with Democrats when his vote won't make the difference between passage and failure with only one exception.

                      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                      by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:05:03 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Counterbalance won't work for Brown (4+ / 0-)

                        The bi-partisan thing still is a fetish for many people in the suburbs here. You nailed it - he votes with Dems when his vote does not make the difference. But people don't dig deep enough to realize that and he gets tons of credit here for being "independent" and "bi-partisan."

                        On the one exception, Dodd-Frank, he voted for cloture only after spending weeks weakening the bill. His 2012 contributions from finance and insurance show that they don't see him as a threat. Which is why his asbestos line of attack was so shameful.

                        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

                        by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:12:48 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah, I think debates hurt him (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, JBraden, pademocrat

                Saying he supported a Justice like Scalia and then snapping at Warren "I'm  not one of your students" when she was sort of talking over him.

            •  Not the same electorate (5+ / 0-)

              in each election. Almost 1.5 million voters didn't kick Brown to the curb, they voted for him this year. They still like him. If most of them show up and we have 2010-level (January special election or November 2010) turnout in the cities, he wins.

              Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

              by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:16:08 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Maybe. (0+ / 0-)

                But if you want to go back to 2010, you have to assume brown's opponent will be as unpopular as Lazy Martha and the Dems will be as unpopular as they were then.

                "Michael Moore, who was filming a movie about corporate welfare called 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' sought and received incentives."

                by Bush Bites on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:37:17 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I don't assume that at all (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  cordgrass

                  But she was a statewide officeholder and he was totally unknown at the time. Now he's the one with statewide name recognition and decent popularity.

                  Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

                  by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:46:47 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  they... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              fenway49, GayHillbilly

              only defeated him by 8, that's not a kicking to the curb. Over 15% of the electorate in Massachusetts voted Obama/Brown.

              "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

              by JackND on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:24:30 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Agree with your main point (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                but it was more like 7% voted Obama/Brown. Which was a lot less than we thought it might be. Warren came on strong after the convention. Brown lost some support in the debates, and with his nasty attack ads, but we won it with big urban turnout.

                Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

                by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:51:14 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  basically, somewhat true (0+ / 0-)

              we (not me) eleccted Brown in two ten despite it swinging the Senate

              have to remember that avg citizen does not pay much attention to composition of Senate and national issues as we do

        •  Please listen to people from Mass. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          fenway49

          A special election is very different.  

          Brown would not have stood a chance the first time around if it hadn't been a special election.  He was a small town, small minded, state senator with (what I think) is an ambitious wife.  He won because of the circumstances of the election - the very same set of circumstances we'll see in a mid-summer special election.

  •  Markey can retire when Kennedy's ready. (0+ / 0-)

    Perfect.

    "Michael Moore, who was filming a movie about corporate welfare called 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' sought and received incentives."

    by Bush Bites on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:10:55 PM PST

  •  Lazy Martha for governor? (3+ / 0-)

    I hope not.

    "Michael Moore, who was filming a movie about corporate welfare called 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' sought and received incentives."

    by Bush Bites on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:23:06 PM PST

    •  She's done a lot of good stuff as AG. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      One hopes if she runs for anything other than AG, she's learned her lesson as far as campaigning goes.

      •  Martha Coakley, Not a Good AG (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, pistolSO, bumiputera

        Coakley hasn't been a great AG. She is, at best, a mediocre-to-poor AG. She was a bad DA, too, imho. If I'm really being honest, I think she's an awful public servant, as well as a terrible campaigner. Why?

        Let's see...Remember the Mooninites? How about the times where she tried to keep people in jail who were proven innocent? There's the one from the film Conviction and the one from day care hysteria. There's her non-investigation of Mayor Menino for destroying public records. She led state DA's in opposing the legalization of marijuana, which is not a problem in and of itself, but she did so with blatant lies, illegal political behavior, and didn't recuse herself from legal action around it.

        Oh, and she helped write the law that tried to censor the Internet. I would never, ever vote for her for anything. If the choice were between her and Scott Brown, I'd vote for the Green Party. Or spoil my ballot. Or maybe even vote for Scott Brown.

        Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

        by arealmc on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 06:02:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  She's not lazy (0+ / 0-)

      In fact, she's a highly respected DA who has done great work in her present position.  

      And she didn't take a two week vacation.  That's just hogwash.  She was a poor candidate, but there's no need to repeat untrue information.

  •  Question - Can Kerry even *help* in the special? (0+ / 0-)

    Secretaries of State cannot really do anything politically, right?

    Shame, after 2004 Kerry has been one of our best campaigners.

    "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

    by xsonogall on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:33:21 PM PST

  •  Rachel Maddow n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The BigotBasher
    •  She wouldn't want it. (0+ / 0-)

      She's said multiple times on her show that she loves her job, "the best job in the world".

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:26:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why trade an audience of millions (0+ / 0-)

        for an empty Senate chamber on CSpan?

        She has far more influence where she is.

        Resist much, obey little. ~~Edward Abbey, via Walt Whitman

        by willyr on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:05:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  On MSNBC? (0+ / 0-)

          She has more influence on a cable channel whose audience is lucky to be 1 million on the best of days? I love Rachel Maddow, but being a Senator is way more influential than being a talking head on MSNBC.

          She would be AWESOME as a Senator. I mean, Al Franken has turned out to be great, and she's way more wonky than he is. In fact, I think I just had a liberal nerdgasm thinking about her as a Senator.

          Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

          by arealmc on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 06:05:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  If there is filibuster reform bi-partisan deal (0+ / 0-)

    it means there will be more opportunity for minority party amendments to be voted on (Reid blocked a lot) meaning there will be a up or down vote on Republican amendments - that 55th vote could be vitally important on financial issues if a balanced budget amendment is tacked on and Manchin, Heitkamp, Landrieu, Pryor and one other vote for it because Scott Brown would be a party line GOP vote on any key issues - he's only freed up to vote against own party line when it doesn't matter.  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:34:28 PM PST

    •  This is getting off the topic, but I hope that's (0+ / 0-)

      not the way we get to filibuster reform.  The R's can keep the Senate from working by insisting on voting on amendment after amendment just as easily as they can with the current system.  If the idea is to have the Senate actually work better, allowing tons of unrelated amendments isn't the way to do it.

  •  Scott Brown, the Forrest Gump of politics (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff

    Don't run Scott, don't run!

    "I'm sculpting now. Landscapes mostly." ~ Yogi Bear

    by eXtina on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:39:14 PM PST

  •  IMHO, the reason Elizabeth Warren won (5+ / 0-)

    had absolutely zero to do with balance of power in the Senate.  She won because she was a strong candidate who stood for something that the voters could identify with.  For that very same reason, I am hoping that Ed Markey runs and wins. Markey has a track record and is a strong advocate for the environment.  IMO, he should be the best person to run for Kerry's seat and I hope he does.

    Markey's age should not be a negative.  Bernie Sanders came to the Senate at an older age and it did not and has not stopped him.  

    "Growing up is for those who don't have the guts not to. Grow wise, grow loving, grow compassionate, but why grow up?" - Fiddlegirl

    by gulfgal98 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:42:47 PM PST

    •  Her numbers went up after the second debate (0+ / 0-)

      when she began to focus on the balance of power in the Senate.  

      If there's a special election, it should be the focus of the Democratic campaign, no matter who runs on either side.

      •  I think it helped (0+ / 0-)

        but her win was not due to swaying on the fence voters as much as great Dem turnout in a Presidential year. The number of votes cast was up by 50% to over 100% in all the state's major cities, compared to 2010. Most of those new votes went to Warren and the Dems.

        I don't see Senate control being a huge issue in the special. With no other seats up, 55 Dems or 54 is not compelling to swing voters. The majority is at risk in 2014, and a GOP win her gets us closer to losing the Senate. But that's too esoteric for most voters out near 495.

        If it's Scott Brown, I'd be focusing like a laser on gun control. And reproductive freedom. Fiscal issues. Tie him to his own positions and the national GOP, but not in the context of the Senate balance of power.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:13:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I was about to suggest running a Roosevelt instead (0+ / 0-)

    ...for Senate.  Since we've had enough Kennedys and I remembered FDR grandson James Roosevelt running against Joe Kennedy Jr for US Congress.  Course he didn't do too well.  And Teddy Roosevelt Great-Grandson Mark Roosevelt got smacked HARD by William Weld.  Perhaps that might not be a very good suggestion.

    Then I remembered to my horror William Weld had a Roosevelt connection.  I thought he was a distant relative to either FDR or Teddy.  But a quick lookup in wikipedia shows it was his now ex-wife who I was thinking about.

    But since everyone is suggesting Kennedy's I'll throw out a ludicrous suggestion.  Congressman Joe Kennedy III's twin brother Matthew Kennedy.  Who will even know the difference?

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:43:13 PM PST

    •  Fraternal twins who don't look at all alike (0+ / 0-)
      Congressman Joe Kennedy III's twin brother Matthew Kennedy.  Who will even know the difference?
      But the point's well taken.

      Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

      by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:17:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  This may (5+ / 0-)

    not be so easy for Senator Brown as people might think. They way senator Mcbitter and his lap body attacked Susan Rice for the beefit of scott Brown will be his down fall, pay back time from the AA community. If there is one group that will turn out to keep him away from the senate it will be this community. Senator Mcbitter did not make him any friends by their actions towards Susan Rice. The AA community dd not turn out for Martha Coakley but they will turn out against Scott Brown for revange.Martha coakley did not ask for their votes until the last minute but they know what happened here and they will never forget. If he runs he will lose.

    •  It's obvious that Brown is their stooge vote. (0+ / 0-)

      The Dems should paint him as such.

      "Michael Moore, who was filming a movie about corporate welfare called 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' sought and received incentives."

      by Bush Bites on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:57:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He is their stooge vote (0+ / 0-)

        This is another incident of these men bullying an innocent woman out of office to make way for their stooge. If he is painted that way he will not stand a chance and moreso it fits like a glove considering the way he treated Ms Warren this last election.

    •  Let's hope (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GayHillbilly, pademocrat

      Certainly Coakley's failure to engage AA voters was atrocious. I hope the Dem nominee will reach out to everyone this time.

      Do you really think voters will hold Brown accountable for McCain's torpedoing of Susan Rice?

      Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

      by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:33:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, I believe (0+ / 0-)

        so and it will depend on who our nominee is and how articulate that person is. What is the likely hood that all th ring leaders of those personal attacks against Dr Rice happens to be that same gang that campaigned for him this last election. Pin on him and make him own. The idea that senator Mcbitter called her not "very bright" that is loaded and that will never go over well in the AA community and the intended beneficiary of that coup will never succeed.

        •  I think voters (0+ / 0-)

          might not connect McCain and Brown so quickly. But it's a point to make.

          Given the horrible shooting in CT and all the gun violence on our streets all the time, Brown's staunch refusal to permit any reasonable gun restrictions should be pointed out loud and clear.

          Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

          by fenway49 on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 07:19:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Stephen Lynch is my rep (0+ / 0-)

    When I went to vote, someone had put up three yard signs on one pole--Brown was at the top, then Stephen Lynch, then our Dem state rep.  The signs were all the same color scheme, all the same fonts.

    Brown has connections to politicians here.  Even the old Dem mayor Ray Flynn endorsed him.

    I'm not fond of Stephen Lynch but as long as he keeps voting along with the Democratic majority and President Obama's direction, I will keep voting for him.  Scott Brown is a lot like Stephen Lynch in his views, except with loyalty to the Republican party rather than the Democratic party.  So I doubt very much that Lynch would run against him.  But Stephen Lynch's views are pretty representative of my neighborhood, and by extension Scott Brown's views are too.

    •  Not surprising (0+ / 0-)
      When I went to vote, someone had put up three yard signs on one pole--Brown was at the top, then Stephen Lynch, then our Dem state rep.  The signs were all the same color scheme, all the same fonts.
      Ironically, our liberal Dem state rep here had red signs. My current neighborhood's to the left of yours but my family lived in your neck of the woods for a few generations.

      Ray Flynn, at this point, is a one-issue voter. The position that got Scott Brown Ray's support is one that cost Brown dearly with the rest of the Commonwealth.

      Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

      by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:29:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  will there be primaries? (0+ / 0-)

    ...or do parties select candidates for special elections?

    •  Primaries. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:12:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Primaries (0+ / 0-)

      Although if the Massachusetts Democratic Party shows its support for a candidate, you'll likely see only that candidate in a primary.

      Will be interesting to see if the Massachusetts branch of the Tea Party picks a loser like Bielat or Jack E. Robinson over Pick-up Truck Scotty.

      Washington and Colorado said that you've got to legalize it. Hope the DOJ respects that.

      by pistolSO on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:19:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Bielat is a rank opportunist (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        condorcet

        He flirted with a run for the House as a Democrat in 2006. He was interested in an upstate NY district (he grew up there) but at the time he lived in Chicago. Bought a house in the NY district and told his wife to move there. Registered to vote there though he didn't really live there. Dems went with Eric Massa instead.

        Bielat got a job in Mass. and ran in Mass. as a Republican in 2010. He moved to Penna. when he lost, then moved BACK when Barney Frank announced retirement to try again. I'm not even sure he still lives here!

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:57:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Bill Weld (0+ / 0-)

    the last honest Republican?

    My only vote for a Republican, by the way, in his 1990 race against racist John Silber.

    And God said, "Let there be light"; and with a Big Bang, there was light. And God said "Ow! Ow My eyes!" and in a flash God separated light from darkness. "Whew! Now that's better. Now where was I. Oh yea . . ."

    by Pale Jenova on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:32:22 PM PST

    •  Who was John Silber? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Pale Jenova, condorcet

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:33:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He won the Dem primary in 1990 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        condorcet

        John Silber was fond of uttering "Silber shockers" until he finally mouthed off one too many times with his quote about terminally ill old people: "when you've had a long life and you're ripe, then it's time to go." (He was taken slightly out of context there but he had gotten away with a lot of crap up to that point so I didn't mind.)

        Someone from the Globe called him "George Wallace with a PhD."

        (He was also being hyped as a possible Democratic presidential candidate--but only if he had won the governor's race. Another reason for me to vote against him that year!)

        And God said, "Let there be light"; and with a Big Bang, there was light. And God said "Ow! Ow My eyes!" and in a flash God separated light from darkness. "Whew! Now that's better. Now where was I. Oh yea . . ."

        by Pale Jenova on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:45:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  He was awful (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        condorcet, Pale Jenova

        I was not old enough to vote then, but probably would have voted for the moderate Republican Bill Weld over him as well. I can count on one hand the times I could say that (one involves Lieberman).

        Silber was autocratic, much disliked by students and faculty at BU (he was longtime president of BU). His way or the highway. As conservative a Dem nominee here as I can recall, except possibly Ed King. Abrasive. He did himself in with this interview.

        He did oppose a bill to further limit property taxes.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 06:06:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Silber.. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        condorcet, Pale Jenova

        ...was still a real Democrat. It is not wise to vote for "moderate" Republicans.  I held my nose and voted for him and would again.

        BTW he just died and was much more complicated than his highlights (or low lights) would suggest.

        •  Silber was horrific. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          condorcet, Pale Jenova

          I wasn't old enough to vote, but would have had a tough choice between Weld and none of the above.

        •  I respect your opinion (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, bumiputera

          but I could not find a way to vote Dem that year (for Mass. governor, that is). :(

          Bill Weld, unlike Mittens or Scott Brown, was at least genuine.

          Back here in Oregon, we used to have good Republicans: Vic Atiyeh, Tom McCall, Mark Hatfield, Norma Paulis, hell, even Bob Packwood when he wasn't passed out drunk or groping the ladies. Then the right-wing batshit hit the fan in 1994 and I never looked back.

          And God said, "Let there be light"; and with a Big Bang, there was light. And God said "Ow! Ow My eyes!" and in a flash God separated light from darkness. "Whew! Now that's better. Now where was I. Oh yea . . ."

          by Pale Jenova on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 06:55:34 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  as long as it's not (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, pademocrat

    John Tierney...

    it should be more of an annoyance than a threat. So instead of focusing on things that'll be helpful to narrowing the House majority in 2014, they'll be defending a Senate seat. Lovely

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:32:41 PM PST

    •  It won't be Tierney (0+ / 0-)

      That we can be sure of.

      Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

      by fenway49 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 06:07:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CNN just posted that Obama will appoint Kerry (0+ / 0-)

    no details just yet...

  •  I hope Massachusetts can come up with someone (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    democrattotheend, pademocrat

    better than Scott Brown.

    Secretary of State is important and Kerry may be the best for that at this time.

  •  If Kerry Resigns Jan 1st... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Trial Lawyer Richard

    And say Gov. Patrick names Markey, not as a place holder, but Markey plans on running and eventually beats Brown in SE - assume he was first appointed Jan 7th - he'd beat the new class being sworn in by a couple weeks right - so he'd be ahead of the 2012 freshmen class in seniority AND he's be the senior senator from Mass, with Sen. Warren his junior by a mere two weeks.  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:17:39 PM PST

    •  There are 12 incoming freshmen... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      condorcet

      Flake, Murphy, Hirono, Donnelly, King, Warren, Fischer, Heinrich, Heitkamp, Cruz, Kaine, Baldwin.  So being sworn in before them would put Markey (or any other Dem) 87th in seniority for the 113th Congress.

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:21:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think that would needlessly... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JackND

      Antagonize Sen.-elect Warren.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:47:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Warren has to be at the bottom of the freshman (0+ / 0-)

        class given she has no elected office experience.  Congressional seniority and Gov years taken into consideration when making up seniority order.  Is state legislature positions as well? If so, she's probably 100th out of 100.  So Markey could be at 87th with Warren still at 100 or Warren could be at 99 and Markey at 100.  

        It would be better for Massachusetts if Markey was appointed and then won the SE.  But I assume Donnelly, King, Kaine types would be more pissed off than Warren.  

        They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:52:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Patrick has said he might appoint someone (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      who would run in the special election, and not just be a temporary appointment.

      That said, if he did that, I dont know if he would pick Markey, essentially choosing among the House members.

      He might go with Steve Grossman, the state treasurer, who, as Arjun mentions, is a former DNC chair and businessman, who could raise a lot of money quickly.

      •  Markey has 3M in his warchest- that's a good start (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32

        Regardless, though Grossman would be in the same boat - appointed and sworn in before 2012 class means he's be ahead of all of them in seniority and Warren would be the junior senator.  

        Not like all of this seniority stuff really matters as I can't see Grossman or Markey or whoever trying to pull rank on committee assignments down the line with their seniority over anybody else in the 2012 class and it being any deciding factor in whatever decision is made.  

        They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:55:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Is seniority much of an issue (0+ / 0-)

          When you elect Senators in their late 60's?  Just a question.
          But it seems like Joe Kennedy III has more of a shot at attaining significant seniority if he stays in the House than Warren, Markey, or Grossman.

          •  Um, also? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico

            Doesn't Kerry have to actually be confirmed before he resigns his Senate seat? Which would presumably happen after the new Congress is sworn in, right? I mean, Hillary hasn't left office yet, either, aren't we moving a bit quickly?

            Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

            by arealmc on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 06:16:15 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  It would be appointment? (0+ / 0-)

      After the death of T Kennedy no-one was appointed.

      For me an appointment would be only interesting if a strong candidate would be appointed and the appointed runs for the seat. Just like the republicans do in Nevada.

    •  I assume Kerry will stay till confirmation (0+ / 0-)

      He's almost certain to get confirmed without trouble but why take the chance?  He probably doesn't want to wind up like Bill Weld, who resigned as Governor after being nominated to be ambassador to Mexico but wasn't confirmed.  Also I think that pretty much all the elected officials who joined the Obama Cabinet in 2009 (Clinton, Salazar, Solis, Napolitano, Sebelius, Tauscher) stayed in office until they were confirmed.  (As did Bill Richardson).  

      22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), new LA-01 (college)

      by Jeff Singer on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 06:07:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hey wait, what about Bill Richardson? (0+ / 0-)

        He's a bit skeezy, but he'd make a darn good Secretary of State, and he's Latino, which would be a nice "thank-you" for Latino voters who basically just put the President back into office...

        Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

        by arealmc on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 06:17:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  He really likes tickling people spontaneously (0+ / 0-)

          Don't think that would go over well with foreign heads of state. Chancellor Merkel is still recovering from the shoulder run George W. Bush gave her.

          28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

          by bumiputera on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 01:36:26 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  and they say the Republicans are dumb (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, fenway49, GayHillbilly, pademocrat, jofr

    Forcing Rice out and moving another Senate seat into 'oh yeah we can win this' is brilliant strategy.

  •  Kerry loves foreign policy and should get to.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chitown Kev

    ....do the foreign policy job he has been groomed for.  We as Dems should be able to hold onto his seat if we work hard.  Maybe Kerry's gravitas helps President Obama's foreign policy agenda.  Maybe he'll do a great job.

    Ed Markey can beat Scott Brown anyway!

  •  I see well the appointment of Kerry (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    condorcet

    Obviously there is a risk of losing again the seat, but in this case, I think it is right. And I think J Kerry would be a good Secretary of State for the successor of Obama in 2016 if a Democrat wins again.

    For the election, now Im cautiously optimistic.

    I would like you remember this poll:

    University of Massachusetts Lowell
    Sept 22-28,2011

    S Brown 37% - 45% J Kennedy II
    S Brown 36% - 43% D Patrick
    S Brown 41% - 40% M Coakley
    S Brown 41% - 38% E Warren

    This was one of the fist polls were E Warren was competitive.

    Now new polls would be good. And I hope the best candidate runs. Now S Brown is easier to be defeated. I fear a little more about the race for Governor.

    If the frontrunner in the new polls runs, I think there is so high chance to keep the seat.

    I want new polls with all the potential frontrunners.

  •  but will they change the law again? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brian82

    while i don't agree with it, they've changed that law so many times, they might go for one final change.  It's unlikely anyone outside the elite-o-sphere will make hay about it.

    Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

    by DougTuttle on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 06:02:17 PM PST

  •  Barney Frank? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    alisonk

    Why not?

    GOP: The Party of Acid rain, Abortion of the American Dream, and Amnesty for Wall Street.

    by Attorney at Arms on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 06:08:09 PM PST

  •  Biden bragged about campaigning for VP spot (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jofr

    how he was behind some oppo research leak against Bayh when the Obama team was down to it's final three of Bayh, Kaine and Biden.  

    I'm wondering if Kerry isn't running a similar campaign for the SoS gig.  Did McCain/Graham attack Rice to help pave the way for Kerry?  Is the Kerry camp behind these leaks announcing him as the next SoS to make him appear inevitable even if the Obama choice hasn't been made yet?

    Why did McCain, Graham, Collins claim that Rice was too partisan and the SoS role is not a partisan one as part of their rationale against Rice - How does that jive with them being okay if Kerry gets nominated?  Kerry gave a helluva partisan speech at the convention.  Or maybe it's the Senate comity bullshit where they figure they'll be able to have influence over Kerry whereas Rice wouldn't make them feel important.  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 07:07:03 PM PST

  •  Attack his strengths (0+ / 0-)

    All right, Rachel Maddow is not going to happen.  Thinking tactically, and this post is going to be all sorts of "ists"--it's not that I'm racist or sexist, but Massachusetts sure is.   I would never say this sort of thing if it were a wide open Senate race or even if it weren't a special election, but we know already who the candidate's opponent is going to be and we know the sort of voters who are going to turn out.

    Scott Brown has only one strength--"I'm like you."  Take that away from him by running a candidate who is superficially exactly like him, and more Massachusetts than he is.  White male, career politician, knows how Boston politics works, a known entity to the pols who run this place, a bit dirty around the edges, heavy Boston accent, Irish last name would be perfect.  We need a younger Tom Menino to turn up.  We already have elected the white knight; that's not going to happen again, not during a special election.

    The kind of voter who is going to turn out for this election is going to be interested in three things:  voting for someone who looks like them and talks like them, someone who will bring plenty of pork to Massachusetts, and someone who won't rock the corruption boat on Beacon Hill.

    Call me cynical but I've lived here for half my life.  A Kennedy by any other name would not smell as sweet; Massachusetts is more conservative than you think.  

    •  holy shit, Capuano is PERFECT! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, pademocrat

      I had read about him and seen pictures, but I never heard him speak.  I just watched some video of him.  Brown would be completely defenseless against the guy, completely.

      I love Markey, but he's too far left to win in a special election.  And we already have Senator Warren, please let another state haul progressive water.

      •  Capuano is progressive too, isn't he? (0+ / 0-)

        How would Brown be defenseless?  Does Capuano have charisma and a full-fledged Boston accent?  I know Brown has both to a limited extent.  I also take it that Capuano has friends within the party machine including the Mayor.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 08:25:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Let me tell you about Boston (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, pademocrat

          It's a college town.  :D  But the college people don't vote in the local elections or the non-presidential elections.  Also we've got Harvard professor as a senator, the people in Southie need a senator too.  Markey is Rep for Medford, true, but he's also the rep for lots of wealthy Boston bedroom communities.  

          Brown plays the class card and he plays it well.  It's completely bogus--Wrentham isn't really a blue-collar place and Brown doesn't really have the right accent.  But he plays the part like an actor with props.  Capuano is the real deal in how his accent sounds and how he talks.  He is both smarter than Brown and also sounds genuinely lower class than Brown, so Brown couldn't play the class card against him at all.

          If we didn't have a such a great GOTV and Warren wasn't such an exceptional candidate with a big war chest, Brown's tactics against her--calling her Professor, making her the Native American other, the not-Boston, would have worked.  But he can't do any of that with Capuano.

        •  Full fledged Boston accent, from Somerville (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, gravitas, bumiputera

          Fiery, a fighter, on occasion steps over the line in his rhetoric, but I think he'd be great and would definitely wrestle Brown to the ground.

      •  Rep. Capuano lost to Atty. Gen. Coakley (0+ / 0-)

        'Nuff said. Lazy, ineffectual, weak. I don't think he deserves another bite at the apple.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:58:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Rep Capuano would probably fit that the most. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cordgrass

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 08:08:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree, I just watched a video of him online (0+ / 0-)

        As long as the debates are televised and watched, Brown goes down against him.  He's the sure thing.

        •  What about Markey? (0+ / 0-)

          He's not Bostonian, but he has a long record.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 08:22:57 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  This is Boston (0+ / 0-)

            Or at least for all intents and purposes it is--outside of the greater Boston area, it's a lot more conservative.  We give Chicago a run for its money.

            I think Markey could win in a general election, even in a non-presidential year, but I don't think he beats Brown in a special election.  Markey is a true lefty and I love him for it, and I hope in 2014 we win back the House and he gets to head a committee on something that will directly impact global warming.  But his greatest strengths make him particularly vulnerable to Brown's guy in a barn jacket with a pickup truck shtick.  The "reasonable" pol who votes Dem half the time.  Who would you have a beer with?  Bush beat Kerry with that, and Brown's a lot more likeable than Bush is.

            I'm not slamming Capuano with this--I don't know much about him, for all I know he might be a pinko socialist.  :)  But he looks and sounds reassuringly familiar, and in a campaign where the only substance is optics (the way Brown likes to run his campaigns), Capuano will beat Brown soundly.

            •  As for Markey not being "Bostonian" (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Paleo

              He's Malden born and raised and that's almost as good - it's only two suburbs north of the city proper and well within the metropolitan area. Certainly well within Route 128, and if you don't think that matters, you don't know Boston.

              If it's
              Not your body,
              Then it's
              Not your choice
              And it's
              None of your damn business!

              by TheOtherMaven on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:04:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  but he's not going to resonate with blue collar (0+ / 0-)

                people.  Brown will have an easier time of it against him.  Brown has only one trick up his sleeve; get him talking on actual issues or his record and he's at sea.

                •  I think Markey would be a stronger candidate (0+ / 0-)

                  Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

                  by Paleo on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 04:43:40 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Capuano could make it a street fight alright (0+ / 0-)

                  He's rough around the edge, gutter fighter type and he could come off too hard and Brown could then play the above-the-muck type.  

                  Markey can run on his record/career - I think Markey could scare Brown out of running for the Senate seat,  Markey would have the progressive record that should get the Dem base activated, and then run a record vs record, votes cast vs votes cast race against Brown and make Brown seem like a rank amateur.  

                  I don't think the barn coat and pick-up truck will work this time as the totality of a campaign.  Brown will still try and play that card, but he also has a senate voting record that is out of step with Massachusetts and no votes would have changed since his loss to Warren.  

                  They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

                  by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 07:50:09 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  but can the Dem base get activated? (0+ / 0-)

                    No doubt Markey is second only to Bernie Sanders in pols whose views and votes align with mine, but this ain't Vermont.  Neither Capuano nor Markey have enough name recognition to beat Brown.  Best hope is for Patrick to appoint one of them, rather than the odd choice of Kennedy's widow.

                    I think it's going to come down to the debates and the diehard Dem voters, and I think those guys will go for Capuano by their gut after watching them both .  The machine was behind Coakley and she lost (yes, she was a crappy candidate).  It's only going to be the machine voters showing up, and they are mostly blue collar.

                    Unless the GOTV can work miracles.  Maybe it can.

    •  You just described Capuano (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gravitas
  •  Leave Kerry in the Senate!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, jofr

    Obama did this to us in AZ when he appointed Gov. Napolitano as Secretary of Homeland security and we ended up with Jan Freakin' Brewer as Governor.

    Kerry has seniority in the Senate and is effective there.  Please let's not remove him and give the excerable Playgirl model Brown another couple of years there.

    See the children of the earth who wake to find the table bare, See the gentry in the country riding out to take the air. ~~Gordon Lightfoot, "Don Quixote"

    by Panama Pete on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 07:46:47 PM PST

    •  If Scott... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Panama Pete

      Brown wants to run, he won;t be primaried...Republicans know he's the best they'll ever get in Massachusetts. He'll be able to watch the Democrats fight over who runs against him...

      "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

      by JackND on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 10:12:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Please, at least no caretaker this time (0+ / 0-)

    And appoint Ed Markey.  Not only is he best for the job, but I think he'll be the strongest candidate.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 04:41:24 AM PST

  •  Kerry for Defense Sec? (0+ / 0-)

    Unfortunately, very few liberals are talking about the idea of nominating John Kerry as Defense Secretary.  This is a guy who said he would have voted for the Iraq War even AFTER the truth came out about the bogus rationale for that war.  Along with Hilary Clinton and Susan Rice, Kerry is part of the Democratic establishment that progressives ought to be fighting against tooth and nail.  Sure, they are better than the Republican alternative--  but that's setting the bar way too low.

    How can we have a third party when we don't even have a second party?

    by Eagleye on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 10:48:34 AM PST

  •  thank you so much (0+ / 0-)

    for this summary

    Even as a relatively politically aware MA resident I did not know some of these people

    Which may even point out the problem to you out of staters...MA really does not have that many well known (to the average voter) Dem politicians who will run. I feel we lack depth.

    Also want to point out that MA voters are loyal and I talked to many (even some Dems) who felt bad "firing" Brown. To some this opening of Kerry's seat if it happens will feel like Karma and that Brown deserves it in some way.

    I worked some on Warren's campaign so I did talk to a lot of people. Hope my perception is wrong.

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