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Pres-by-CD: After a one-day hiatus, we're back to troll your empty Live Digest jokes! We'll add ten districts today, bringing us to 294 districts.

Tennessee (statewide)

Texas (TX-12)

It's very much hard to believe that as recently as 10 years ago, a majority of Tennessee's congressional districts voted Democratic for president: Al Gore carried 5 of 9 districts, and Democrats held those 5 seats through 2010. Looking now tells a much different story: Obama carried the two Democratic districts (Memphis-based TN-09 and Nashville-based TN-05), the latter with only 56 percent. We also see the headwind Democratic nominee Eric Stewart had in his race against scumbag doctor (and Republican Congressman...) Scott Desjarlais in TN-04, as Obama got less than one-third of the vote here.

The other update is TX-12, an unremarkable exurban Fort Worth-based district. The 2000's iteration of the district was slightly more Democratic (as it cracked part of the Democratic and minority-heavy parts of the city of Fort Worth); now that those areas are in Mark Veasey's TX-33, the 12th becomes even more staunchly Republican (32 percent Obama).

10:34 AM PT: AR-Gov: State Attorney General Dustin McDaniel was the first candidate to announce for Arkansas' open governor's race (all the way back in June), and now he's the first with an internal poll, courtesy Anzalone Liszt. In a hypothetical Democratic primary, McDaniel is way out in front, taking 54 percent to just 14 for former LG (and 2010 Senate hopeful) Bill Halter and only 1 percent for state highway commissioner John Burkhalter.

McDaniel also included general election numbers, but quite unusually, he's actually trailing in one of the matchups. He leads current Lt. Gov. Mark Darr 46-34 but loses to former Rep. Asa Hutchinson 44-41. That's not something you typically see in an internal poll, and McDaniel tries to explain it away by claiming Hutchinson has a "slight advantage" in name recognition—even though he hasn't held office since 2001. And McDaniel says he has a 57-13 job approval score—so Hutchinson's more well-known than that?

If it were just name rec, though, then why does McDaniel score five points worse against Hutchinson than Darr? Hmm. And if these are the kinds of numbers we're seeing now in a private Democratic poll, then it just confirms that this is going to be exactly the kind of very difficult hold you'd expect, in a state Mitt Romney carried by 24 points.

11:17 AM PT: Dark Money: ProPublica has gotten its hands on something never before seen: the application that Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS filed with the IRS in September 2010 seeking tax-exempt status. Crossroads' application is apparently still pending, though if it's denied, the group could be forced to reveal its donors. And it's possible that it will get denied, since non-profits cannot primarily spend money on elections—and Crossroads promised that "any such activity will be limited in amount, and will not constitute the organization's primary purpose." Of course, if you believe that, then there are a number of spans crossing the East River readily available for your purchase. Follow the link for much more on how Crossroads almost certainly isn't living up to its pledge to serve as a "social welfare" organization.

12:42 PM PT: House: The other day, we mentioned that 2012 was only the second time in the last 40 years when one party had won a majority of the national House vote but not a majority of seats in Congress. Cook's Dave Wasserman goes further and says that this was in fact only the second time in the last 70 years (1996 being the other). What's more, says Wasserman: "Republicans won a 4.29 percent greater share of seats than votes—the largest GOP overperformance since the House Clerk's office began providing complete data in 1942." Unfortunately, the piece is paywalled, but if you're a subscriber, Wasserman has a couple of helpful interactives which track vote share vs. seats over time. The truly bad news is that the split has grown considerably worse for Dems over the last couple of decades and we might need a serious wave year to ever take the House back.

1:34 PM PT: Senate: Congressional Democrats and Republicans are in the process of handing out committee assignments to new members (as well as reshuffling the deck in certain cases and also picking committee leadership). It looks like Senate Dems are the first to announce a full slate of appointments; if you're interested to see where various freshmen have landed, look for the names in italics, which denote new assignments (for newcomers and veterans alike).

1:50 PM PT: NE-Gov: There's a new potential entrant into the Nebraska Republican gubernatorial primary, which abruptly became a one-man race after state House Speaker Mike Flood unexpectedly dropped out the other week: State Sen. Charlie Janssen, who was first elected to the legislature in 2008, says he's looking at the contest as well. Janssen claims that Flood's departure isn't a factor, saying he'd even discussed a possible bid with Flood a couple of months ago. If Janssen gets in, he'd square off against Lt. Gov. Rick Sheehy for the nod.

2:09 PM PT: RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee, the only independent governor in the nation, is once again saying he may seek re-election as a Democrat. This isn't the first time he's discussed the possibility—indeed, he began publicly talking about it just months after taking office in 2010. But now Chafee, who endorsed Obama in 2008 and 2012, and spoke at this year's Democratic convention, is getting closer to the point where he'll have to make a decision. Notes Chafee: "There is no independent governors association throwing money around ... but there is a Democratic Governors Association." And indeed, outgoing DGA chair Martin O'Malley has previously made overtures to Chafee about a switch.

But while DGA money could help in a general election if Republicans manage to be competitive, running the gauntlet of a Democratic primary could bring its own host of problems for Chafee. Some Dems will undoubtedly be open to him joining the party, but others won't be, perhaps in part because he served in the U.S. Senate as a Republican as recently as six years ago. That said, Chafee has certainly marched far leftward (he even said, in the AP's words, that he "felt welcome" at the DNC), but putting aside ideology, one or more ambitious Democrats might still look to dethrone him in the primary. And I'd be surprised if the DGA would want to prop him up for the nomination, though perhaps that could be part of a party-switching deal.

2:16 PM PT: NYC Mayor: Pretty sure supermarket magnate John Catsimatidis—who likes to make noises but has never sounded super-excited about a mayoral bid—just took himself out of the running with this:

"Taxes are going to go up regardless. What I'm afraid of is, we shouldn't punish any one group. Whether we're punishing people who are wealthy," he said. "New York is for everybody; it's for the poor, it's for the middle-class, it's for the wealthy. We can't punish any one group and chase them away. We—I mean, Hitler punished the Jews. We can't have punishing the '2% group' right now."
Republicans don't really have anyone of stature who might run next year apart from police chief Ray Kelly (who seems unlikely), but at least Catsimatidis has money. But all the money in the world can't help you if you insist on going Godwin right from the start.

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Comment Preferences

  •  TX-12 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    R+19, from R+17

    https://docs.google.com/...

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 06:26:53 AM PST

  •  MI-Gov (8+ / 0-)

    I'm not sure if PPP is going to release a new poll on Rick Synder's approval rating today or not, but they gave a hint last night that Synder's approval rating has "dropped precipitously compared to a month ago".

    Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 07:47:00 AM PST

  •  Vicki Kennedy talked up as replacement for Kerry (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, MichaelNY

    ABC is reporting that Gov. Deval Patrick has reached out to Kennedy to replace Kerry in the Senate.  

    •  Unless Obama has an ace-in-the-hole... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...Kerry is probably going to be the new Secretary of State. I don't know who Obama's ace-in-the-hole might be...Bill Richardson, perhaps?

      Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 07:50:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Stupid is as does stupid does (4+ / 0-)

      I can't believe they're going to give away another senate seat to Scott Brown.

      Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

      by Paleo on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:11:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Huh? (0+ / 0-)

        I seem to remember everyone thought Vicki Kennedy was our best possible, or at least one of our best possible candidates. At least before Elizabeth Warren came along.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:15:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think the air has gone out of the balloon... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp, James Allen, JBraden

          Somewhat...I thought Vicki Kennedy would be a great pick because it would be a symbolic thing, the widow of Ted Kennedy coming back to reclaim her husband's seat. There were also no Kennedys in Congress for the first time in decades.

          But now a Kennedy has been elected (in MA-04) and Sen.-elect Warren has reclaimed Ted Kennedy's seat for the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. I don't think there's as much symbolism in a Vicki Kennedy appointment or candidacy anymore.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 09:58:49 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  There's also a question of motivation. (0+ / 0-)

            Vicki Kennedy isn't exactly old, but is determined to make a career out of this? I'm not saying she needs to die in office or end her career when she's close to the end of her life, but rather that a lot of politicians, perhaps most of them, plan to devote a large portion of their lives to public service. If Kennedy wants to do that, then great. But if not, it might make her less forceful and determined on the campaign trail, because a loss means she just returns to doing whatever else she has been doing. Compare that to most if not all of the other potential replacements, who will need to find other jobs if they lose.

            I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

            by bjssp on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 10:21:47 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not convinced (11+ / 0-)

        First of all, I'm not 100% sure Brown would run in a special. With the race for the full term in Nov 2014, he would have to go through two Senate races in, like a year and a half. Much easier to just run for an open governor's seat in 2014.

        If he does run, he would definitely be a strong candidate not doubting it. But this isnt 2010. Dems wont fall asleep on this race, any candidate is going to campaign better than Coakley, and the political climate is better for Dems. And while Brown does have strong ratings, he's also an incumbent senator who just lost re-election.

        Not trying to underestimate Brown here, but I think many are overestimating him, and underestimating Dems in this race.

        •  he'd have to run in four senate races (6+ / 0-)

          in less than five years.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:49:32 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, for all of the talk of him (5+ / 0-)

          being some sort of giant, he just lost in a non-wave year, and he only won by 5 points in the first place.

          I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

          by bjssp on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 09:34:56 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  He lost in a Prez year by 7 points against a (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          good candidate and won in special election against a terrible candidate by 5.

          It should be pretty clear that there is a sweet spot in the middle of those two results, which is, a toss up against a good but not great candidate in a special.

          People may be sick of him, or they may still like him (more likely), but it's political moronism to appoint a Senator to anything and setup a 50/50 special election, especially considering the likelyhood of losing seats in 2014.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 11:34:28 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I kind of agree, (0+ / 0-)

            but is this different than other states? It's unusual for an incumbent to go down in flames, even if they are not liked or even reviled, in red, blue, and purple states. I don't think there's anything special about these circumstances compared to most other states where the candidate isn't a joke. If that's the case, we fall back on the lean of the state, which even if it isn't as powerful in a special election is still there.

            All things considered, I probably wouldn't want to take the risk. But even with the dangers involved, it doesn't seem that hard to imagine a very thorough campaign gets us over the finish line. It might seem annoying to have to do that when there are plenty of other viable options for State, but I don't think it's any less true that we are heavily favored.

            I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

            by bjssp on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 11:47:43 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I'm sorry but... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MBishop1, GoUBears, JBraden

            That's a really simplistic analysis, Coakley ran an abysmal campaign during a time when Obama's popularity was going down the toilet, and HCR was dragging on and on.

            Brown lost the seat as an incumbent though, Brown doesn't have a floor of 46% and a ceiling of 52%, he has a floor much lower than that because he's already lost once, against someone who never ran for any office in her lifetime, and however much they "like" him, they still didn't want him as Senator, hence why he was voted out.

            If Brown runs in a special election, it won't be anything close to 50/50, and I'll bet money on that.

            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

            by NMLib on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 11:57:26 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  What part of "presidential tear" is simplistic? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              You are ignoring the most obvious and important aspect of what has happened in the past two years.

              You need to look at the situation more completely.  We aren't going to be holding a presidential election on the day of the special election.  

              (And you look at warren's not running for office previously as a negative!  It was one of the things that caused her to win.  Brown would have mopped the floor with one of the hack Congressmembers.)

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 12:41:29 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  You really think this? (5+ / 0-)
                Brown would have mopped the floor with one of the hack Congressmembers.
                He lost by just about the same amount that McCain lost to Obama (and, like McCain, this was despite fairly high favorability). You really think he would have mopped the floor with other competent Democratic opponents?

                I find it bizarre that just because Brown narrowly won a special election under perfect storm cicumstances in 2010, people are suddenly forgetting that this is freakin Massachusetts. And Scott Brown just lost an election there.

                •  Of course, the polling showed it (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wwmiv, skibum59, aamail6, MichaelNY

                  What is really astounding is people seem to have forgotten that the sitting Congresmembers chose to not run in a presidential year against the guy!

                  What, duid they suddenly foreget they were in Massachussets?  No, they saw he had 60%+ approvals, and their own are far worse.

                  Smell the coffee here people.  Just pretending everything oof the past two years, from the special up to November, just didn't happen.

                  Putting a seat at risk with even a 10% chance of flipping it to red, wasting millions of dollars, dismissing a formidable candidate with high approvals... these are just dumb things to do.

                  Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                  by tommypaine on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 01:05:21 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I agree (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    aamail6, MichaelNY

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 01:10:15 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Two different points. (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    NMLib, JBraden, MichaelNY
                    Putting a seat at risk with even a 10% chance of flipping it to red, wasting millions of dollars, dismissing a formidable candidate with high approvals... these are just dumb things to do.
                    I agree. I think Scott Brown would have a non-negligible chance of winning another special election, if he ran, and it therefore wouldn't be worth it, especially since we need every seat we can get, given what's coming down the pike in 2014.

                    But I was arguing with your other point, which was, once again:

                    Brown would have mopped the floor with one of the hack Congressmembers.
                    Your defense of this position is:
                    the sitting Congresmembers chose to not run in a presidential year against the guy!

                    What, duid they suddenly foreget they were in Massachussets?  No, they saw he had 60%+ approvals, and their own are far worse.

                    Yes, but Warren won anyway! That's the point! Despite all those first-tier potential candidates sitting on the sidelines, we were able to beat him anyway. Comfortably. I know Warren had pretty high favorables, too; but given her 7% win, she also had a fair amount of room to spare.
                  •  The polling showed Warren losing by double digits (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    bumiputera, MBishop1, CF of Aus, MichaelNY

                    Actually, Warren had some of the worst initial numbers. Hell, Warren's favorables were actually quite a bit worse than Brown's but that was irrelevant, the partisan lean of the state mattered a lot.

                    But Democrats also knew there was a very good chance that John Kerry was a likely pick to be Secretary of State, meaning they'd have a free chance to run in a special without having to give up their House seats. Giving up their House seats for something that really wasn't a sure thing (against an incumbent, which I am going to repeat every time because this doesn't seem to be sinking in).

                    Capuano would have beaten Brown, as would have Markey. I know it's easier to rewrite history, but some facts are usually more helpful.

                    Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                    by NMLib on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 01:34:01 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  It's not 50-50 now, Brown is toast (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, NMLib, JBraden

            Brown cannot win again, period.

            This is Todd Akin all over again, so many people here wringing hands that an unelectable guy will get elected.

            Brown's loss was the end of him, he lost as an incumbent by high single-digits to a novice candidate.  When that happens to an incumbent in a state chronically hostile to his party, he is done forever.  It's no different than Roy Barnes trying a comeback in 2010 after he got beat in 2002, the state was done with him, same with Brown in Massachusetts now.

            The 2010 special is inapplicable forever more.  It was a fluke, 2012 was the norm.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:13:49 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I wouldn't say toast (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JBraden, MichaelNY, James Allen

              but he's not fresh and new anymore.  His 2010 campaign was solid as all the events fit into his narrative ("the people's seat," "Democrats unfairly attacking me," and "check on the Democratic-controlled government").  When Coakley hit him with a stereotypical grainy, dull-color attack ad with the scary voice, he shot back with a bright, personable ad with him standing in his house rebutting the ad.  He tried to reproduce those elements in 2012, except the Warren campaign was not the same.  When, around Labor Day, she had the owner of a famous boxing gym in Lowell cut an ad where he calls her a fighter and then describes where Brown has gone against the grain of Massachusetts, Brown struck back with a replica of that ad he used to rebut Coakley.  This seemed out of place because the ad Warren did was a far cry from the evil-voiced, scary image-ridden attack ad that he sounds like he's responding to.  You could tell his polling was in trouble because he was pulling off personal attacks closer and closer to election day.

              Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

              by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:41:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Democrats need to play it safe if there is a race. (5+ / 0-)

          Nominate a male non-Harvard educated candidate who has good blue collar reputation to appeal to swingy voters.  Though most of all no one who has in any way shape or form has had any association with the Middlesex County Prosecutor's office.    I'm looking at you Scott Harshbarger, Tom Reilly, and Martha Coakley.

          On paper Marty Meehan looks like a good choice with his large bankroll.  And he'd make a pretty good US Senator.  Unfortunately what might make him attractive (his reform mindedness) is what will kill him.  He's intensively disliked by a lot of establishment Democrats who will gladly stab him in the back.  He was lucky to even survive redistricting when he served in the US House.  Circular firing squads is what kills Democrats in the Bay State.

          I like Mike Capuano myself.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 12:26:12 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  But he couldn't even make it out of the primary (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Taget, MichaelNY

            against Coakley last time.

            •  Coakley ran a strong primary campaign (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Taget, MichaelNY

              She ran a piss-poor general election campaign, but losing a primary doesn't mean anything about strength in the general.

              Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

              by NMLib on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 01:49:50 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  she probably thought that was the ballgame (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                until the last few weeks.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 02:11:28 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  I will grant that is a valid point. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              But snap multi-candidate primaries are unique beasts in and of themselves.  Particularly those that do not have runoffs.

              Coakley had a large lead to start with due to name recognition and money.  Each of the other candidates wanted to be the anti-Coakley and make it a two person race.  And fought mostly amongst themselves.  Never rising above the fray.

              It does not necessarily mean Coakley was the strongest general election candidate as we saw.

              It's the model Christine Quinn will be hoping for in her race to be Mayor of New York.  That she'll have a large lead and that candidates will compete more against each other for second place than doing actual damage to herself.  Keeping her numbers high and having her own poll numbers propel her to victory as more and more people fall in line with what they see as the inevitable.

              Of course the wrinkle in NYC primaries for citywide offices is you have a runoff if no one breaks 40.  And two person and multi-candidate races are completely different beasts.

              Something Martha Coakley and the Democratic Party found out the hard way.

              The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

              by Taget on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 02:03:20 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  Yes Paleo... (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Chachy, MBishop1, Taget, KingofSpades, GoUBears

        Because this is Idaho where it's impossible for a Democrat to win the seat...

        Meanwhile, back in the real world, Scott Brown won a special election under the most extreme of circumstances (a Democrat who phoned it in, Obama was really unpopular, and there was clearly a Republican wave building). He then, as an incumbent, went on to lose by 8 points against a candidate who had never run a statewide election before (and frankly, ran a less-than-perfect campaign).

        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

        by NMLib on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 09:08:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Gotta run a woman against him (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden, LordMike

        Brown lost a lot of stock with his attacks on Warren that often came off as particularly mean-spirited & reflected poorly on him. Plus, a woman would be better able to nail him for his vote for the Blunt Amendment.

        Isn't she pro-life though? Not that it matters if she's a Cuomo-style "I'm morally opposed but think it should be legal" type.

      •  Can I just take a moment (6+ / 0-)

        to remind everyone of some of the "guaranteed, definite, 100 percent gonna happen" things of the past few years, like Clinton replacing Biden, Obama agreeing to drastic cuts in Social Security, Bloomberg being Treasury Secretary, Jamie Dimon being Treasury Secretary, and Republicans taking the Senate in both 2010 and 2012? It's certainly possible that Kerry will be the nominee, but until it's confirmed, all we have is (possibly informed) speculation.

        Now, if it's true, it's potentially worrying. At the same time, had Coakley done a few things differently, does anyone think it's out of this world to suggest she'd be a senator now? My point is, we might have to work to defend a seat when we don't want to, but that's okay. It's Massachusetts, and Brown, before he had just gone through a tough election where some of the sheen might have been/definitely was taken off of him, won by 5 points, not 15 points.

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 09:31:57 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  half of those things were never going to happen (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, skibum59

          I hadn't even heard of a couple.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 09:34:03 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well, sure, they were unlikely (0+ / 0-)

            to happen. We tend to be both better informed and more skeptical here, but in other formats, specifically popular media, I've seen those things bandied about as if they were sure things, i.e. "The deal is all but set for Bloomberg to replace Geithner at Treasury..." I had to laugh a little when I read them, and wouldn't you?

            I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

            by bjssp on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 09:38:06 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Shorter version of what I am trying to say: (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            that's why they are funny and, in part, why we shouldn't believe everything we hear until we see it with our own eyes.

            I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

            by bjssp on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 10:10:20 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Paleo, "stupid" is thinking it's "giving away.. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden, NMLib

        ...another senate seat to Scott Brown."

        Brown is toast.

        I really hope he runs because it's important for the handwringing to get blown up explicitly on this, as it would be.  What is it about Democrats to think our candidates will lose no matter what?

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:16:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I would prefer an experienced candidate (4+ / 0-)

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:30:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Full time replacement? Or placeholder? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, Zack from the SFV

      I can't see Patrick naming somebody who will then run as he'd royally piss off the Rep's who want to run.  But if Patrick is going back to private sector like he has promised his wife, what would he care I guess.  

      I like Barney Frank if a placeholder is going to be used.

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:44:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  She would be a good placeholder. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      And she could campaign for her successor, which would be helpful as well.

      Plus, it would be pretty cool to see a native Oklahoman and a native Louisianan representing Massachusetts in the Senate. ;-)

    •  Question: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, MichaelNY

      would this be the fastest rise to senior senator ever for Warren? Even if Brown replaces Kerry, wouldn't he lose the informal status?

      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

      by bjssp on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 09:33:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I would go with Barney Frank (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, KingTag, MichaelNY

      He would shake up the senate for a few months.

    •  Why do that (0+ / 0-)

      when Kerry is not necessarily the likely pick?  He's hardly the last man on Earth.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 12:38:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MA-Sen 2012/MA-Sen SPECIAL (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingTag, JBraden, MichaelNY

    Elise Labott, a foreign affairs correspondent for CNN, incorrectly claimed on CNN's "Early Start" that Scott Brown recently won re-election to the U.S. Senate when talking about the likely appointment of John Kerry to the Secretary of State post, which would force a special election for Kerry's seat, and Scott Brown would easily be the strongest potential Republican candidate in any U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts.

    I wanted to throw my TV through the wall after she said that!

    Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 07:56:00 AM PST

  •  Committee Assignment (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I know we have a list of Senate committee assignments, but is there a list yet for the House?

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 10:49:05 AM PST

    •  Hey, question for you: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      if/when I am elected, what will I get? As a potential chief of staff/chief strategist/all around baller for my office, I hope you'd use your connections to get me something good.

      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

      by bjssp on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 11:11:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Freshman in the house (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, bjssp, MichaelNY

        Don't ever get anything truly good, and when they do it is an extreme exception to the rule.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 11:14:37 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  ... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, MichaelNY

          Not at all what I wanted to hear. Can't you make a couple of calls, cook the numbers, shred some documents--you know, do some of that Pelican Brief stuff? What did I hire you for?

          I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

          by bjssp on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 11:23:40 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Better get pally with D leadership (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            or win a race in a shocking upset

            24, gay Atari Democrat CA-41

            by lordpet8 on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 11:33:57 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well, will it be shocking (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              redrelic17, MichaelNY

              if I win after calling my opponent the world's douchiest douchebag for not reading a CBO report in a debate? Cause I'll do it!

              Seriously now, this is obviously impossible to say, but if I were to run, I have to wonder if my win would be somewhat shocking, if only because I had an easy time getting the nomination. It seems surprising that a nobody challenged him this year, and unless there's some sort of out-of-the-blue candidate and/or we see a very favorable cycle for us in 2014 or 2016, what are the odds it'll be all that different a few cycles from now, when he's more entrenched?

              I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

              by bjssp on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 11:39:23 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  or be particularly impressive given your record (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bjssp, MichaelNY

              which IIRC was the case of Kurt Schrader, who was given the chairmanship of a budget sub-committee though he was a freshman.  He'd done a fantastic job as chair of Oregon's senate budget committee.  People said he could rattle off lists of specific items and amounts from the state budget from memory.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 11:45:09 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Here's what Shirley Chisholm did (6+ / 0-)
            As a freshman, Chisholm was assigned to the House Agricultural Committee. Given her urban district, she felt the placement was irrelevant to her constituents and shocked many by asking for reassignment. She was then placed on the Veterans' Affairs Committee. Soon after, she voted for Hale Boggs as House Majority Leader over John Conyers. As a reward for her support, Boggs assigned her to the much-prized Education and Labor Committee, which was her preferred committee. She was the third highest-ranking member of this committee when she retired from Congress.
            In that case a competitive leadership race was required. Though this was before all the reforms took place in the house.

            24, gay Atari Democrat CA-41

            by lordpet8 on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 11:40:27 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Wikipedia is not always right (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8, Taget, MichaelNY, jncca

              Actually the error is in the USA Today obituary which Wikipedia cites.  When Chisholm retired from Congress in 1983, she was no longer on the Ed & Labor Committee, because she had been appointed to the Rules Committee.  At the time for Democrats, Rules was an exclusive committee.

              I pointed out in a thread before the election that Chisholm's decision was short-sighted, because the overwhelming amounts of funds authorized by the Agriculture Committee goes to nutrition programs, a topic of vital importance to Chisholm's constituents in neighborhoods such as Bedford-Stuyvesant.

    •  Do you have a link (0+ / 0-)

      To the Senate list? Would love to see a House list, too.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 12:25:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Cuomo mourns "political environment of today"... (6+ / 0-)

    ...that caused a Republican to lose and a Democrat to take office.  I really wish we could go back to the good old days of 2010. :(

    But seriously.  I can perhaps understand him backing a Republican who risked their neck to pass a legislative priority that was meaningful to him.  But now that the Republican lost is it not time to congratulate the member of your own party who has done nothing offensive of note besides daring to win?

    Link courtesy of Colin Campbell @ politicker.

    http://capitaltonightny.ynn.com/...

    Gov. Andrew Cuomo released a statement lamenting Republican state Sen. Stephen Saland’s loss to Democrat Terry Gipson, saying it’s “unfortunate” Saland would lose in the “political environment” of today.

    Saland, who backed Cuomo’s same-sex marriage bill and negotiated with him a religious protection component to the law, conceded the race to Gipson earlier today following an absentee and paper ballot count.

    Other news. Liz Krueger's excellent op ed arguing on the State Senate.  I remember Diane saying something just like that right before she joined the IDC.

    http://www.timesunion.com/...

    And Christine Quinn's endorsement for Mayor by a major union.  Of note since diBlasio is going to rely very strongly on his union support.

    http://ufcwblog.blogspot.com/...

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 12:01:09 PM PST

    •  Well he did endorse Saland right? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      24, gay Atari Democrat CA-41

      by lordpet8 on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 12:06:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I mourn the politcal environment too (10+ / 0-)

      The voters voted for a Democratic majority in the State Senate, and the Republicans are still in control.

      •  We'll see how the Tsakych (sp) vs. Amedore race (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ends up

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 01:13:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  To be fair voters also elected (0+ / 0-)

        Savino, Klein, Smith, Felder, and enough Republicans to make that a majority.  We don't really know whether or not the IDC's constituents would prefer they be doing something different.  That's not to say I like what they're doing, but figuring out the "will of the people"  is tricky.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 01:46:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Felder and Smith (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SLDemocrat, MichaelNY

          Felder didn't announce he was caucusing with Republicans until after the election. Same with Smith and the IDC. and I think voters didn't realize the IDC would caucus with Republicans for that matter.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 03:54:42 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Smith was really an opponent of the IDC, too, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            before the election, wasn't he?

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 04:02:36 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I doubt too many people thought (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Felder was the strongest partisan in the world.  All I'm saying is that what was on the ballot wasn't a plebiscite about establishing Democratic control, but rather a bunch of individual politicians, and that I don't think we should presume to understand why they got elected or what (all) voters were thinking when they supported them in primaries and general elections.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 05:29:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Has anyone calculated the statewide popular vote (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, MichaelNY

              totals for senate?

              I'd be shocked if Democrats didn't win comfortably.

              Ok, so I read the polls.

              by andgarden on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 06:16:53 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  But we don't ask people to vote (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                on a statewide plebiscite to determine legislative control.  We ask them to vote for individuals.  

                Look--the New York Senate almost certainly "should" be Democratic.  All I'm saying is that Savino and Klein and Smith and Felder and the Republicans were duly elected, too, and they're not doing anything illegal.  Are they obligated to follow the statewide popular vote?  I can see the argument but it's not the only one.  Maybe Felder thinks his constituents support the voucher thing over all else.  And certainly we don't have much evidence of popular outcry over Senate control, at least not that I'm aware of.

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                by Xenocrypt on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:30:12 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  well, I'm sure people didn't think (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Felder was a flag-waving, rah-rah-rah Democrat, sure - but if you want D control of the Senate, who were you supposed to vote for? Storobin?

              Honestly, I don't think it's prudent to ignore the concept of people voting for party, especially downballot where there's less information about individual candidates.

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 07:25:14 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Apparently (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                what Felder wants is a voucher school system that includes yeshivas and only Republicans would agree to such lunacy.

                Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:31:35 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Voters who had D control (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                as their top priority voted for Felder, but it doesn't follow that Felder's voters all or mostly had that as their top priority.

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                by Xenocrypt on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:07:45 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  well, obviously we can't read minds (0+ / 0-)

                  but in an era of intense political polarization and the fact that people could easily vote for the party for low-information downballot races...well, I don't think what I'm saying is unreasonable.

                  Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 06:22:23 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  But the Felder seat is an exception. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    It's probably one of the most Republican parts of the state.  (I think its predecessor was, at least--is that right?.)  Felder only got elected because of non-polarization and because of (some, enough) people distinguishing him from Obama/Generic D.  General trends don't always fit every case.

                    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                    by Xenocrypt on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 06:44:59 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  no way (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      remember, Storobin was preceded by a Democrat, and he defeated a (fairly liberal IIRC) Dem by a handful of votes in a low-turnout special election. granted, that was under the old lines, but this area of Brooklyn still strikes me as one which is hostile to Dems at the top of the ticket but much less so downballot.

                      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                      by sapelcovits on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 02:37:13 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

              •  In fact (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                according to this, Felder might have emphasized the Conservative line more, and said he'd "probably caucus with the Republicans if they maintained their majority", or something.  I don't know if he ever promised to caucus with the Dems if he could put them in the majority--and really, the electorate in this district is probably quite conservative.

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                by Xenocrypt on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:45:18 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  The only one that holds water for is Felder. (4+ / 0-)

          Simcha Felder stated during the election he would consider siding with the Republicans if his vote made a difference.  In fact it was an issue during the Democratic primary.  With his opponent who ran to his RIGHT accusing him of waffling.  Which  was true.  David Storobin made it an issue in the general.  But Simcha Felder never hid that he was considering it.  In fact he used it as an issue to gain votes from his more conservative opponents.

          Malcolm Smith of course is a different issue.  When he first floated his name for Mayor he reassured his fellow Democrats in the State Senate as well as constituents that he would continue to serve faithfully as a Democrat even if he received a Wilson-Pakula to run as a Republican.

          I will however post a link to something that is absolutely hilarious given everything that has happened.  Simcha Felder trying to burnish his Democratic credentials by calling himself a "Malcolm Smith Democrat."

          http://www.nydailynews.com/...

          Brooklyn Councilman Simcha Felder confirmed this morning that he indeed plans to challenge Sen. Kevin Parker in September, but rejected Parker's allegation that he is a Republican plant sent to foil the Democrats' effort to take over the Senate.

          "I'm a Malcolm Smith Democrat," Felder insisted.

          "I look forward to making sure that the Senate Democrats regain control of the Senate. I've always been a Democrat, and I'm going to continue to be a Democrat."

          When Diane Savino briefly had an opponent who made the IDC an issue people were quietly reassured that she would not stand in the way of a Democratic majority.  Though I will note never by Diane herself.

          Diane and the rest of the IDC denied they had an electoral pact with the Republicans or had a cut deal on redistricting.  Those of us who paid attention suspected they were lying.    But there is perhaps no defense weaker than the "you should've known we were lying" defense.

          But most voters knew nothing nothing of this.  Her district is a Staten Island North Shore district.  A lot of voters who came out this year are not high information and have not voted since 2008 when they also came out for Barack Obama.  When they pulled (or with the new machines marked up) a straight Democratic ticket they had no reason to suspect they were not voting for the Democratic Party.

          That is not to say that she and the rest of the IDC may not get away with this.  And convince local Democrats the concessions they got from Republicans makes everything worth it.  But this is not what they ran on in 2012.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:27:40 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  But I think everyone who knew about the IDC (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            knew this was a possibility, and the IDC was fairly high-profile.  

            My point is: under the system as it is, we vote for candidates--individuals--and to some extent, even if we're pure partisans, as so many people are, we can't help but effectively be voting for an individual's judgement and choices and so on.  Savino's voters are Democrats, but--without a real study--we don't really know how many of them had D control as a top priority.  If campaign promises were violated, that's another story, but that's not the argument I was responding to.  (And you yourself say Savino never promised to caucus with the Democrats, although Felder apparently did, bizarrely.) Trying to make a general point.

            Adding up the total vote for a party can be a useful exercise, but nothing more--that's not the choice we're formally asking people to make, and if that had been the choice we had formally asked people to make, it might have changed the outcome.  Probably not in the Republicans' favor, at least in this case, but again, I'm trying to make a general point.  Certainly I doubt the voters of Felder's district would vote Democratic for New York State Party List Parliament.  He also ran on the Conservative line--there are posters with him and Mitt Romney less than a block away from where I am now.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:24:01 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Oh please, Andy. (5+ / 0-)

      Saland was in a Democratic district in a Democratic year.  Poughkeepsie ain't what it used to be.  Also, blame the homophobes at NOM, not the environment.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 01:13:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pfft (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.politico.com/...

    This is funny. Maybe they should realize they only did so well because those races lacked a Democrat.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 12:07:57 PM PST

  •  Romney ripped off news agencies (7+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 12:40:10 PM PST

  •  I did a great Dem gerrymander of WA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    I hope to post it tonight if I'm not lazy.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 01:01:58 PM PST

  •  ... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades, Taget

    Well today was a slow news day. :(

    Dan Malloy's comments were good.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 03:04:19 PM PST

  •  NYC-mayor (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Catsimatidis sounds like some kind of rare disease affecting cats. maybe it causes them to make Holocaust analogies?

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 06:59:03 AM PST

  •  Gore did not carry 5 districts in 2000... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    "It's very much hard to believe that as recently as 10 years ago, a majority of Tennessee's congressional districts voted Democratic for president: Al Gore carried 5 of 9 districts, and Democrats held those 5 seats through 2010."

    Huh?  CQ's Politics in America 2002 gives the following breakdown of the presidential vote in TN in 2000:

            D           R       Green

    1    37           61           1
    2    38           59           1
    3    45           54           1
    4    46           53           1
    5    58           40           1
    6    45           54           1
    7    41           58           1
    8    49           50           1
    9    74           24           1

          47           51           1

    In other words, Gore, like Obama, carried only two congressional districts--the Nashville-based 5th and the Memphis-based 9th--though of course he came much closer to carrying the rural districts in central and western Tennessee than Obama did. (Eastern Tennessee, or at least the 1st and 2nd districts, has been Republican since the Civil War.) Still, he did lose them--including the 6th, his old district.  

    True, the district lines have changed twice since then, but I still find it extremely unlikely that Gore carried five of even the present-day districts.

    It is true that the Democrats held five of the congressional seats from 2002 to 2010, but that was back in the days of ticket-splitting, which seems to have almost died out as far as the House is concerned.

    •  Yes, he did. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I remember it distinctly from statistics posted by the National Committee for an Effective Congress:

      http://web.archive.org/...

      The key is that these were the districts in effect between 2002 and 2012, not those in effect when the 2000 election itself happened.

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-07.

      by jeffmd on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 08:54:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  OK, thanks for the clarification (0+ / 0-)

        I looked it up further in the  Almanac of American Politics 2004:

        "Tennessee's Democratic legislature controlled redistricting after the 2000 Census; Republican Governor Don Sundquist's veto could be overridden by majority votes in both houses. But in January 2002 the Democrats, with help from 6th District Democrat Bart Gordon, drew lines which were agreed to by most Republicans. The congressional district plan cut across party lines far more often than ever before in Tennessee. It took six Democratic-leaning counties out of Republican Zach Wamp's 3d District and placed them in the 4th District, whose incumbent Republican Van Hilleary was running for governor. That enabled Democratic state Senator Lincoln Davis to win the 4th: He led by only 2,000 votes in the counties formerly in the district, but by nearly 8,000 in the counties added, and would surely have trailed in the Republican East Tennessee counties that were subtracted. Heavily Republican Williamson County south of Nashville was taken out of Gordon's 6th and split between the 4th and the heavily Republican 7th District. The last time an incumbent Tennessee congressman was defeated was in 1974, when a Republican lost in an increasingly black central Memphis district."

        http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

        That explains why Gore lost the 4th and 6th Districts uder the 1992 lines but not the 2002 ones.  (He lost the 8th so narrowly under the 1992 lines that only minor changes were necessary to have him carry it under the 2002 lines.)

        As 2010 shows, though, even favorable lines can't withstand a wave year.

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