Skip to main content

The Governor races should be much more fun for Democrats in 2014 than the Senate races.  We should be in good shape to pick up three to five state houses (plus the Indy seat in RI) and maybe more.  The Republicans just about maxed out in 2010, leaving Democrats with plenty of pickup opportunities and with mostly easy seats to defend.

REPUBLICAN SEATS

1. MAINE - PAUL LEPAGE

Rating with Incumbent: Lean D Pickup
Rating if Open: Lean D Pickup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+6
Job Approval: 42-51 (Maine People's Resource 11/3/12); 41-51 (PPP 11/2/12); 44-52 (Pan Atlantic 9/28/12); 47-51 (Rasmussen 9/25/12)
Head-to-Head: 41-49 vs. Generic D (PPP 11/2/12)
My Two Cents: LePage should be toast.  Even if the race descends into three-way madness again this time, one would hope that the parties will do a better job of acting in the interest of defeating LePage at all costs.

2. MICHIGAN - RICK SNYDER

Rating with Incumbent: Lean D Pickup
Rating if Open: Lean D Pickup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+4
Job Approval: 38-56 (PPP 12/16/12); 46-48 (Rasmussen 10/11/12); 45-53 (EPIC-MRA 7/31/12)
Head-to-Head: 38-49 vs. Bernero; 46-38 vs. Whitmer; 47-39 vs. Peters; 44-39 vs. Schauer
My Two Cents: PPP's latest poll is a disaster for Snyder.  The recent labor controversies have changed the equation.  Congressman Gary Peters is making what sound like candidate noises, and he would be just the right candidate.

3. PENNSYLVANIA - TOM CORBETT

Rating with Incumbent: Lean D Pickup
Rating if Open: Tossup/Tilt D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Moderate to Low
PVI: D+1
Job Approval: 40-38 (Quinnipiac 11/13/12); 33-44 (PPP 11/3/12); 42-48 (Rasmussen 10/24/12); 32-41 (Muhlenberg 10/21/12)
Head-to-Head: 40-49 vs. Generic D (PPP 11/3/12)
My Two Cents: Corbett appears to be in deep trouble, although Quinnipiac suggests some recovery.  Businessman Tom Knox and former state environmental head John Hanger are in for Dems.  Others will join, possibly including Rep. Allyson Schwartz.

4. FLORIDA - RICK SCOTT

Rating with Incumbent: Tossup/Tilt D Pickup
Rating if Open: Tossup/Tilt R
Likelihod of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+2
Job Approval: 37-48 (PPP 11/4/12); 39-45 (Quinnipiac 10/28/12); 48-48 (Rasmussen 10/25/12)
Head-to-Head: 44-48 vs. Generic D (PPP 11/4/12); 42-45 vs. Crist (PPP 9/2/12); 35-47 vs. Rich (PPP 6/3/12)
My Two Cents: This seems like it should be an easy pickup, but Florida demographics are tough in midterms.  If Charlie Crist runs, he will be defeated in the primary as he should be.  State Senator Nan Rich is already in the race.

5. VIRGINIA - OPEN

Rating: Tossup/Tilt D Pickup
PVI: EVEN
Favorables: McAuliffe 17-13 (Quinnipiac 11/12/12); McAuliffe 16-23 (PPP 8/19/12); Cucinelli 29-24 (Quinnipiac 11/12/12); Cucinelli 29-35 (PPP 8/19/12)
Head-to-Head: McAuliffe 43, Cucinelli 42 (POS 12/4/12); McAuliffe 41, Cucinelli 37 (Quinnipiac 11/12/12); McAuliffe 40, Cucinelli 40 (PPP 8/19/12)
My Two Cents: McAuliffe is an unsatisfying candidate both because he hails from the DLC wing of the party and because he generally seems like a doofus.  Cucinelli, however, should be way too extreme for today's Virginia even in a mid-term.

6.   SOUTH CAROLINA - NIKKI HALEY

Rating with Incumbent: Tossup/Tilt R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+8
Job Approval: 42-49 (PPP 12/9/12); 40-42 (Winthrop 12/2/12)
Head-to-Head: 44-46 vs. Sheheen (PPP 12/9/12)
My Two Cents: This race appears headed for a re-match of the suprisingly-close 2010 open seat contest - Haley vs. State Sen. Vincent Sheheen.  Haley's approvals are low (and should rightfully be lower) but the fundamentals of the state favor her strongly.

7. NEW MEXICO - SUSANA MARTINEZ

Rating with Incumbent: Tossup/Tilt R
Rating if Open: Lean D Pickup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+4
Job Approval: 65-32 (Rasmussen 10/8/12); 56-34 (PPP 7/16/12)
My Two Cents: Martinez is wildly popular in New Mexico, but will face a heavyweight battle with Attorney General Gary King, son of former Governor Bruce King.  Martinez probably has an edge, but the fundamentals of the state obviously favor King.

8. OHIO - JOHN KASICH

Rating with Incumbent: Tossup/Tilt R
Rating if Open: Pure Tossup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+1
Job Approval: 42-35 (Quinnipiac 12/9/12); 45-40 (PPP 11/4/12); 56-38 (Rasmussen 11/4/12); 56-34 (Ohio Poll 10/23/12); 45-33 (Fox 10/18/12)
Head-to-Head: 44-43 vs. Generic D (PPP 11/4/12); 41-40 vs. Cordray; 44-42 vs. Strickland; 43-36 vs. Coleman; 41-33 vs. Ryan; 45-35 vs. Kucinich (PPP 6/24/12)
My Two Cents: Kasich has rebounded strongly after being in rough shape for quite some time.  But Ohio Dems have some potential big guns to challenge Kasich, including ex-Gov. Ted Strickland and ex-Attorney General Richard Cordray.

9. WISCONSIN - SCOTT WALKER

Rating with Incumbent: Lean R
Rating if Open: Tossup/Tilt D Pickup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+2
Job Approval: 51-46 (PPP 11/3/12); 51-46 (St. Norbert 10/29/12); 50-45 (Marquette 10/28/12); 51-47 (Rasmussen 10/18/12); 52-44 (Quinnipiac 10/9/12)
Head-to-Head: 50-43 vs. Generic D (PPP 50-43)
My Two Cents: Walker's approvals seem to be immovable in the low 50's.  He will raise money like no other and will be tough to defeat.  In fact, Walker's strong performance in the recall may be enough to scare off any first-tier challengers.

10. ARIZONA - OPEN

Rating: Lean R
PVI: R+7
My Two Cents: Republicans have the edge, but Democrats have some promising candidates including Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton and attorney Felicia Rotellini, who nearly took the Attorney General race even in the bloodbath of 2010.

11. IOWA - TERRY BRANSTAD

Rating with Incumbent: Likely R
Rating if Open: Pure Tossup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Moderate to Low
PVI: D+1
Job Approval: 48-36 (PPP 11/4/12); 60-34 (Rasmussen 10/30/12)
Head-to-Head: 49-40 vs. Generic D (PPP 11/4/12); 43-46 vs. Vilsack; 44-42 vs. Culver; 44-40 vs. Braley (PPP 5/6/12)
My Two Cents: Like Kasich, Branstad seems to have recovered nicely in a state that has done well economically.  Branstad is sending signals that he will run for a record sixth term as Iowa governor, and he should be in good shape to do so.

12. NEVADA - BRIAN SANDOVAL

Rating with Incumbent: Likely R
Rating if Open: Lean D Pickup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+2
Job Approval: 58-28 (PPP 11/4/12); 56-28 (Rasmussen 10/23/12)
Head-to-Head: 55-32 vs. Generic D (PPP 11/4/12); 51-33 vs. Cortez Masto; 50-28 vs. Miller (PPP 6/10/12)
My Two Cents: Only Nevada's Democratic lean prevents me from declaring this seat Safe R.  Sandoval is wildly popular and seems unlikely to face top-tier competition in 2014, although Dems do have a good bench of statewide officeholders here.  

13. NEW JERSEY - CHRIS CHRISTIE

Rating with Incumbent: Likely R
Rating if Open: Likely D Pickup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+6
Job Approval: 69-22 (Monmouth 12/4/12); 67-25 (PPP 11/28/12); 72-21 (Quinnipiac 11/25/12); 77-21 (National Research 11/19/12); 67-26 (Rutgers-Eagleton 11/17/12)
Head-to-Head: 50-36 vs. Booker; 53-31 vs. Codey; 61-25 vs. Springsteen; 57-20 vs. Sweeney; 60-20 vs. Buono (PPP 11/28/12); 53-35 vs. Booker; 57-30 vs. Codey; 61-23 vs. Buono; 62-21 vs. Wisniewski; 62-20 vs. Greenwald (Quinnipiac 11/25/12); 53-34 vs. Booker; 56-31 vs. Codey; 58-22 vs. Byrne; 60-22 vs. Buono; 60-21 vs. Greenwald (Rutgers-Eagleton 11/17/12)
My Two Cents: If Jon Corzine has stepped aside in 2009, we would have Gov. Richard Codey running for re-election in 2013.  Instead we have the most unbeatable monster to hit the Tri-State area since the Stay-Puf Marshmallow man.

14. GEORGIA - NATHAN DEAL

Rating with Incumbent: Likely R
Rating if Open: Likely R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
Job Approval: 37-40 (PPP 12/2/12)
Head-to-Head: 44-40 vs. Barrow; 46-38 vs. Carter; 47-40 vs. Reed
My Two Cents: The "likely" rating, as opposed to safe, is solely on the basis of PPP's recent poll showing Deal mildly unpopular and winning unimpressively against Democrats with little name recognition.  Deal probably cruises anyway.

15. KANSAS - SAM BROWNBACK

Rating with Incumbent: Likely R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+12
Job Approval: 36-48 (Survey USA 7/17/12)
My Two Cents: Brownback will probably cruise to re-election, but Survey USA has repeatedly shown him with awful approval ratings.  Kansas Democrats have a decent bench of recently deposed statewide officers, so this is one to keep an eye on.

16. TEXAS - RICK PERRY

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Moderate
PVI: R+10
Job Approval: 41-39 (U. of Tex. 10/21/12); 56-41 (Texas Lyceum 9/26/12)
My Two Cents: Perry seems to have recovered from his presidential debacle, and Texas has not yet reached a point where it is viable for Democrats, particularly in mid-terms.  If Perry hangs it up, Attorney General Greg Abbott will be formidible.

17. NEBRASKA - OPEN

Rating: Safe R
PVI: R+12
My Two Cents: Dems no longer have much of a bench to compete in this deep red state.

18. SOUTH DAKOTA - DENNIS DAUGAARD

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Likely R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+9
Job Approval: 43-33 (PPP 1/30/11)
My Two Cents: Not much information here, but if Daugaard's approvals are even decent, he will cruise in South Dakota.

19. ALASKA - SEAN PARNELL

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+12
My Two Cents: No recent polling, but no reason to believe Parnell will be in any danger.

20. TENNESSEE - BILL HASLAM

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+12
Job Approval: 53-17 (MTSU 2/25/12); 61-21 (Vanderbilt 2/22/12)
My Two Cents: Haslam has bipartisan appeal in Tennessee and is safe as can be.

21. ALABAMA - ROBERT BENTLEY

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+14
My Two Cents: BREAKING NEWS: Alabama elects another right winger in a landslide.

22. IDAHO - BUTCH OTTER

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+17
My Two Cents: Idaho is quite reliably Republican.

23. OKLAHOMA - MARY FALLIN

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+19
Job Approval: 69-16 (Sooner Poll 12/6/11)
My Two Cents: Fallin is very popular and should win easily.

24. WYOMING - MATT MEAD

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+22
Job Approval: 77-11 (POS 1/7/12); 53-17 (PPP 1/5/11)
My Two Cents: Wyoming as red as it gets.

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

1. ARKANSAS - OPEN

Rating: Lean R
PVI: R+14
Job Approval: McDaniel 57-13 (Anzalone 12/3/12)
Head-to-Head: Hutchinson 44, McDaniel 41; McDaniel 46, Darr 34 (Anzalone 12/3/12)
My Two Cents: Everything is trending red in Arkansas, but there is still a small fraternity of Democrats who can still win statewide there.  The good news is that Attorney General Dustin McDaniel, who is in the race, may be one of those Democrats.

2. ILLINOIS - PAT QUINN

Rating with Incumbent: Tossup/Tilt R Pickup
Rating if Open: Likely D
Likelihood of Open Seat: High
PVI: D+8
Job Approval: 25-64 (PPP 11/28/12); 26-52 (Chicago Tribune 10/8/12)
Head-to-Head: 37-44 vs. Dillard; 39-43 vs. Rutherford; 40-39 vs. Schock (PPP 11/28/12)
My Two Cents: Quinn was very lucky to escape 2010, and Illinois Democrats should not leave it to luck this time.  Primary time.  Moderate State Senator Kirk Dillard is in the race for the Republicans, but he may need a clown car to win the primary.

3. MASSACHUSETTS - OPEN

Rating: Lean D
PVI: D+10
My Two Cents: This is only Lean D because of the possibility of the still fairly popular Scott Brown running.  I expect Dems to carry the seat regardless of whether he runs, however.  Should be a very crowded Democratic primary, which Bob Massie will win.

4. NEW HAMPSHIRE - MAGGIE HASSAN

Rating with Incumbent: Lean D
Rating if Open: Tossup/Tilt D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+1
My Two Cents: No polling since election day, but Hassan's 13-point bonanza over Ovide Lamontagne speaks volumes.  She should be in excellent shape for re-election, although New Hampshire voters are fickle.

5. MINNESOTA - MARK DAYTON

Rating with Incumbent: Likely D
Rating if Open: Lean D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+2
Job Approval: 51-36 (PPP 11/3/12); 54-38 (Rasmussen 10/21/12)
Head-to-Head: 51-38 vs. Generic R
My Two Cents: Republicans probably have a slightly better shot at Senator Al Franken in 2014, so he may draw the stronger candidates away from Dayton, who is popular and should win with room to spare.

6. OREGON - JOHN KITZHABER

Rating with Incumbent: Likely D
Rating if Open: Lean D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+5
Job Approval: 50-41 (PPP 12/5/12); 55-29 (Riley 8/30/12)
Head-to-Head: 47-42 vs. Smith; 49-40 vs. Walden; 52-37 vs. Alley; 52-33 vs. Hanna; 53-31 vs. Starr
My Two Cents: Oregon is moving in our direction and Kitzhaber is in very solid shape.  I do not necessarily expect him or Merkley to draw a first-tier challenger, but I would expect the stronger challengers would view Merkley as the easier target.

7. COLORADO - JOHN HICKENLOOPER

Rating with Incumbent: Likely D
Rating if Open: Tossup/Tilt D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+1
Job Approval: 55-26 (PPP 11/4/12); 65-30 (Rasmussen 10/29/12); 59-21 (Quinnipiac 10/9/12)
Head-to-Head: 54-33 vs. Generic R (PPP 11/4/12)
My Two Cents: Colorado loves it some weed ... and some John Hickenlooper.  His approvals are sky high.  This is another situation where I would expect the strongest challengers to go after Udall for the Senate seat.

8. CONNECTICUT - DANNEL MALLOY

Rating with Incumbent: Likely D
Rating if Open: Likely D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+7
Job Approval: 46-38 (PPP 11/2/12); 50-47 (Rasmussen 10/28/12); 45-41 (Quinnipiac 10/22/12)
Head-to-Head: 48-37 vs. Generic R (PPP 11/2/12)
My Two Cents: This may be headed for a re-match with 2010 Republican nominee Tom Foley.  But if Foley's best wasn't good enough in 2010, it is unlikely to be good enough in 2014.  Connecticut is fool's gold for Republicans.

9. HAWAII - NEIL ABERCROMBIE

Rating with Incumbent: Likely D
Rating if Open: Safe D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Moderate
PVI: D+20
Job Approval: 41-48 (Hawaii Poll 10/12)
My Two Cents: Abercrombie's approvals appear to have recovered from disastrous levels.  I doubt his running for re-election would put the seat in play now, but we may be better off with with a more popular candidate.

10. CALIFORNIA - JERRY BROWN

Rating with Incumbent: Safe D
Rating if Open: Safe D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Moderate
PVI: D+9
Job Approval: 49-36 (USC/LA Times 11/12/12); 42-37 (PPP 10/21/12); 42-44 (Reason 10/15/12)
My Two Cents: Kudos to Brown for having even mildly positive approvals while governing the ungovernable state of California.  Hopefully his recent diagnosis of early stage prostate cancer will not prevent him from running for re-election.

11. MARYLAND - OPEN

Rating: Safe D
PVI: D+10
My Two Cents: There is no white knight candidate to save the Republicans from the inevitable here.  Maryland is very blue and getting even bluer.

12. NEW YORK - ANDREW CUOMO

Rating with Incumbent: Safe D
Rating if Open: Safe D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+11
Job Approval: 74-13 (Quinnipiac 12/10/12); 58-40 (Siena 10/24/12); 59-37 (Marist 10/21/12)
My Two Cents: Nothing doing for Republicans here.  Cuomo is safe as can be, although Quinnipiac's sky-high approval polls for him seem to be outliers.  

13. VERMONT - PETER SHUMLIN

Rating with Incumbent: Safe D
Rating if Open: Safe D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+16
Job Approval: 65-23 (Castleton 5/16/12); 45-36 (PPP 7/31/11)
Head-to-Head: 48-40 vs. Dubie; 50-33 vs. Scott; 50-31 vs. Salmon; 50-29 vs. Snelling; 51-29 vs. Brock; 52-25 vs. Lauzon (PPP 7/31/11)
My Two Cents: I suspect the days of Republicans being competitive in Vermont state level races may be waning.  Shumlin was obliterating the competition in mid-2011, and it appears his approvals have gone way up since then.

INDEPENDENT SEATS

1. RHODE ISLAND - LINCOLN CHAFEE

Rating with Incumbent: Lean D Pickup
Rating if Open: Likely D Pickup
Likelihood of Open Seat: High
PVI: D+11
Job Approval: 29-69 (Brown U. 10/5/12); 21-75 (Fleming 2/23/12)
My Two Cents: Chafee is incredibly unpopular, and is talking about running as a Democrat.  As an indy, he will likely serve as a spoiler for the Democrats.  Democratic Former Auditor Ernie Almonte is in the race.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (11+ / 0-)

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 01:04:43 PM PST

  •  re: New Jersey (3+ / 0-)
    My Two Cents: If Jon Corzine has stepped aside in 2010, we would have Gov. Richard Codey running for re-election in 2014.
    Should be 2009 and 2013.  We like low-turnout elections here.  

    As to the point, I'm not so sure Codey would have won.  NJ's Democratic bosses didn't like him any more than they liked Corzine, and they could have been similarly unhelpful to him.  

    •  Thanks. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bill W, Mostel26

      Fixed.  Polling showed Codey with a solid lead.  Christie took some lumps in 2009 over his taste for expensive food and accommodations on the government dime.  He was not nearly the beast he is now.  But yes, I'm speculating ... a lot.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 01:17:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Two things. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, Mostel26, TrueBlueDem, Nica24

    1. I think if it's a crowded primary field for MA-Gov, Setti Warren would probably win.  He's also got strong links to the Clintons and Kerry.   Massie is an anti-casino zealot and that won't play well in Massachusetts.

    2. Sink can't beat Scott.   Crist can.   I think Florida Democrats will realize that and vote for Crist and then Governor Voldemort is toast.

    Washington and Colorado said that you've got to legalize it. Hope the DOJ respects that.

    by pistolSO on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 01:14:02 PM PST

    •  The Bob Massie thing (7+ / 0-)

      is a running joke with the DK Elections crowd, similar to Chuck Norris jokes.  Bob Massie would probably score low single digits in a real primary.

      Re. Crist I thought the same as you at first, but then I saw a video montage of all the horrible things he has said about Obama and the Democrats.  It's bad.  I am convinced from that video alone that he will lose the primary.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 01:19:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not that I want Alex Sink either (0+ / 0-)

        although I think she could beat Scott.  A December 2011 PPP poll had her up 53-37 on Scott, a little worse than Crist's 55-32.  Scott's fortunes have improved quite a lot since then, but he remains vulnerable.

        I am hoping for my former hometown mayor Pam Iorio of Tampa to run and win the primary.

        Also, a PPP poll back in June had State Senator Nan Rich, who is already in the race, leading Scott 47-35.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 01:26:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Link to that montage, if possible? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        spiderdem

        British guy with a big interest in US politics; -1.88, -4.05. A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar. The bartender says "Hey Mitt".

        by General Goose on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 01:29:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  National Dems behind Crist? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        spiderdem

        If Obama, Clinton(s), and other line up behind the new and improved Charlie Crist, does that make a big change in FL? I don't know the state well enough to know, but I have a feeling some national party weight thrown behind Crist would push him through.

        •  They were behind Specter (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mostel26

          and it did not do much for him.  This party switching act is really tough to pull off for anyone.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

          by spiderdem on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 02:06:01 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  They weren't strongly behind him (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            spiderdem, lordpet8

            I didn't get across my email or real mail from big name Dems to support Specter over Sestak, but I know there was some background noise in support of Specter and a rumored "bribe" for Sestak of a big position in the Obama admin. My question was more about a full court press of Obama and both Clintons really campaigning for Crist.

            •  I still don't think it would work. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Mostel26, jncca

              He's just said too much and claimed to be too conservative for too long.  Same problem as Specter.

              White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

              by spiderdem on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 02:13:38 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Fair point (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                spiderdem

                I'll take your word on that. I really don't know FL Dems well enough to disagree with your conclusions. I just really would love to see Scott out of office and look forward to sending some $ to whoever wins the D nomination in FL.

                •  Curious the dislke for Crist. He seems a centrist (0+ / 0-)

                  with the best chance to win in Florida, and he was fair on voter suppression as governor.

                  "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

                  by TofG on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 03:00:37 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  huh? (0+ / 0-)

                    I think you wanted to put that comment to Spider. I wasn't slamming Crist.

                  •  I like Crist. (0+ / 0-)

                    He is a nice and personable man and his record as a Republican Governor is about as good as I could hope for from a Republican Governor.  But I don't think he will win a Democratic primary, nor do I think he is the best Democrat for the job.  As I mentioned I favor former Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio.

                    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                    by spiderdem on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 03:40:13 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  He's an opportunist (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    BKGyptian89, kleinburger

                    He doesn't appear to have had any real ideological conversion; I don't trust him any more than I trusted Specter.

                    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                    by jncca on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 04:09:17 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

              •  What Crist (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                spiderdem

                needs to do is run for the House against Bill Young and accumulate a Democratic voting record.

                28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

                by bumiputera on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:28:05 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  Lori Compas is a WI version of the Massie joke (0+ / 0-)

        Lori is best known for attempting to recall Republican Wisconsin State Senator Scott Fitzgerald, but losing by a wide margin despite running a dedicated campaign.

        If she actually went through with a WI-Gov run (which isn't completely out of the question given the fact that WI Dems have an absolutely lackluster bench), she'd probably beat Brett Hulsey or any other whacko candidate in the primary, as a matter of fact, depending on how strong of a campaign she runs, she might be able to beat a top-tier primary opponent who has serious issues with the Democratic base, such as Ron Kind or Chris Abele.

        Lori is more concerned with organizing progressive-minded businesspeople in Wisconsin into an organized political force right now, and, if that's what she wants to do for the rest of her life, that's fine with me. However, if she got a 3 A.M. phone call from the chairperson of the Wisconsin Democratic Party asking for her to run for Governor of Wisconsin because no other credible Democrat is interested, she'd answer the call, trust me.

        Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 05:31:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Sink will crush Scott (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem, MAVoter

      have you seen the poll of Sink v. Scott compared to Crist v. Scott.

      And regarding Massachusetts, Coakley will be the nom.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 03:23:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Excellent work. nt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, Mostel26
  •  not sure about RI and PA (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, Mostel26

    I know based on the evidence Chafee should lose given high disapprovals, but he could come back, and he just might. He's a bit hard to read but he used to be wildly popular and the Dems in this state have a history of screwing themselves in the gov race. Your ratings to RI are based on what you see at the federal level....Dems haven't won here since 1995. Therefore, I'd rate as Tossup/Tilt D.

    As for PA, well they have this odd history of re-electing incumbent governors. I know Corbett's #s are bad for him but if anything PA is getting just ever-so-slightly redder because of Dem conversion to Republican ticket voters in the SW. Given the bad approvals and PA history, this should be a pure Toss Up.

    Same goes for VA. Cucinelli is toxic but so is TMac (TMac is less toxic, yes). They also tend to vote for govs of the party opposite that who is holding the WH. So as much as I'd love for Cucinelli to go down, this is really pure tossup.

    Otherwise, I agree with your ratings

    •  Almost had RI (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mostel26

      at Lean D, but then I thought Chafee's approvals are just so far in the toilet.  I think some of these New England states that have elected Republican governors in recent history are going to stop doing so, much like states in the South have stopped electing Democratic governors.

      You are not the first person to express this same thing to me about Corbett.  The numbers speak for themselves there to me, but there is that Quinnipiac poll with narrow positive approval and you are right about the trend in Pennsylvania.  I also think Corbett is going to get a pretty strong opponent like Schwartz or McCord.

      Every instinct in me wants to put no faith in T-Mac, but Cucinelli is really, really out there.  There was a Republican internal noted in one of the DKE digests today that had T-Mac up a point, even with McDonnell at astronomical approval ratings.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 01:41:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I also don't view Chafee (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8

        as much of a downgrade from a Democrat.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 01:41:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  heh (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          spiderdem

          Yeah...the rating on Corbett probably really depends on his opponent. It does seem like he could get a strong one (b/c of those approvals).

          In general RI politicians are corrupt, but the Dems seem even more so in that state. Chafee is genuinely likeable and while it might depend on the Dem running, if I still lived there I would probably vote for him. I would have voted for him if I still lived there in 2010. It depends on the Dem, but Chafee is actually an upgrade from plenty of Democrats. Not that it's been an issue, but Chafee is pro-choice and plenty of Dems in RI are iffy on that because Catholicism is so strong in the state (so I know plenty of Catholics are pro-choice but I just wouldn't want a Stephen-Lynch type Dem in the gov mansion in RI)

        •  It's not inconceivable... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          spiderdem, kleinburger, lordpet8

          ...that a Democrat who wins that race could be to the right of Chafee. The 2010 Democratic nominee seemed like he might have been, which is one of two reasons I ended up voting for Chafee (the other being that the polls were showing a close race between Chafee and the GOP candidate with the Democrat in 3rd place).

        •  If the Democrat we pick (0+ / 0-)

          is more like Caprio than Elizabeth Roberts, Chafee is actually an upgrade.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 10:46:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, if POS has the Democrat up (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        spiderdem

        they're in trouble.  POS is Public Opinion Strategies, the go-to Republican internal pollster notable for getting every single race incredibly wrong this past election, sometimes off by as much as 20 points in the GOP direction.

    •  PA (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, spiderdem

      PA is too early to really discuss. Corbett is going put out another brutal budget (or two) as gov, so I anticipate his numbers will take two more dips. Also, Kane (as our new AG) has yet to nuke Corbett over the entire Sandusky / Penn State clusterbleep.  

      We also need a strong Democratic candidate to emerge. My personal choice would be Joe Sestak. He's a great campaigner who took PA-07 from a 9 or 10 term Republican in 2006 and came within a stone's throw of winning the Senate seat in 2010 vs. Pat Toomey.  The other D names in PA don't strike me as strong enough to win the gov election. Allyson Schwartz is awesome, but I think she should continue to stay in the House. I think she'd be in line for a committee chair when we regain the House. Rob McCord is a trendy name, but most people couldn't pick him out of police lineup.

    •  Disagree about Pa. getting redder. Yes, sw is more (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mostel26

      red but it's declining demographically, while the se is bluer and growing bluer, and ne is (in state races) tilted blue. The 8-year paradigm is ripe to be exploded.

      "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

      by TofG on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 02:57:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  yes and no (0+ / 0-)

        For example; the idiots in Delaware County (where I live) have been on a steady diet of Dems for Senate and Pres, but have gone Repub in Gov, US House, and our county council. The county council is a real head scratcher because the Rs win by a 2 to 1 often.

      •  we'll see (0+ / 0-)

        one election a trend does not make, but it's not getting bluer at the rates of CO, VA, and NV. I did specifically preface this with an "ever so slightly". Perhaps it's because it's mostly an inelastic state, it's not really trending blue in a big way, nor will it trend red in a big way

        •  Pennsylvania's PVI went from D+2 to D+1 (0+ / 0-)

          Hard to say if it's "reddening" or something peculiar to Obama, but Casey's somewhat unimpressive result suggests you were on target with an "ever so slight" reddening.  I certainly do not see a blue trend there.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

          by spiderdem on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 03:48:17 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Slight correction (0+ / 0-)

      The last time Dems won in RI was 1991 with Bruce Sundlun. Lincoln Almond won in 1994 and took office in 1995.

  •  If anyone's interested and (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mostel26

    hasn't seen it, I did a similar one for the Senate a few days ago.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 01:44:42 PM PST

    •  solid! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem

      I'm happy that most of the at-risk Senators on team D have good approval ratings. I would not be shocked to see us really only lose out in South Dakota.  I'm VERY excited to see a metric ton of 2010 Republican Senators get booted in 2016.

  •  Solid ratings (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, Mostel26, GoUBears

    A lot can change of course, but they make sense at the moment.  I'm eagerly anticipating some of the GOP nominees...they don't usually put up such clowns as they do for senate, but there may be some goodies.  In 2010 they were kind enough to give us Carl Paladino in New York, the dynamic duo of Tom Tancredo and Dan Maes in Colorado, and Rick Scott in Florida.  Sadly Scott ended up actually winning, but he's allowed us the ability to actually win a Florida governor race again for the first time in 20 years.

    I look forward to the flailing campaigns I'm sure Cuccinelli and others will bring.

  •  Why is Lincoln Chafee (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem

    so unpopular in Rhode Island?

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), new ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 01:52:43 PM PST

  •  good job (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem

    Most of these look about right, but I think that some of the "open" ratings are too extreme. Governor races aren't like Senate races, the weaker party is much more likely to elect a governor than a senator. Within the past few years, OK and WY have had Dem governors and NY and VT GOP governors.

    If open I think NJ and NM are lean D and GA, SC, and SD likely R.

    Some states really are safe, though. Dems always lose in TX and the GOP always loses in CA.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 02:14:39 PM PST

    •  I'm on a kick (0+ / 0-)

      where I put a lot of stock in PVI, especially for open seats.  Seems the electorate is extremely polarized, although we saw Heidi Heitkamp take ND-Sen this past cycle.  You're probably right that I'm putting too much stock in it.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 03:45:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  its all peachy & nice that Charlie Crist a Dem now (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, kleinburger

    but I would vote against him in a heartbeat in the primary if I live in Florida. No way we get the FLGOP galvanized and united behind Prick Scott, and piss away this Governor seat that's prime for the taking. I rather vote for Sink who has a muuuuch better chance to win than Crist.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 02:31:01 PM PST

  •  OH hates Prince John Kasucks, depends on who the D (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem

    Is. Lots of the Rs hate him too.

    (R's) take those tired memes and shove 'em, Denise Velez Oliver, 11/7/2012.

    by a2nite on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 03:14:07 PM PST

  •  I agree with all your ratings except (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, jncca

    Illinois as safe D without Quinn.  It's my understanding that Democrats are wholly unpopular in the state and Republicans would at least present a challenge to them in 2014.

    •  Quinn pulling off the 2010 race (0+ / 0-)

      is what makes me feel that way.  I just don't see how IL-GOV could ever get any worse than that useless lard-ass running in the 2010 wave.  But I guess the response to that is that Republicans didn't nominate their best candidate.  Kirk Dillard would have beaten Quinn in 2010 almost without question.

      Your comment fits with sacman's above.  I may be putting too much stock in high PVI's on both sides for open seats.  I think it's a valid criticism.  But that's what I'm going with for now.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 03:57:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Bill Brady was a Tea Party hack (0+ / 0-)

        Brady wasn't as toxic as, for example, Joe Walsh would be in a statewide in Illinois, but he was too conservative for Illinois. What saved Quinn's ass in 2010 was the fact that his original LtGov running mate, Scott Lee Cohen, exited the race after it was revealed that he was a steroid freak (and that was only the tip of the iceberg when it came to Cohen's personal issues), and Cohen turned around and ran an independent gubernatorial campaign and somehow managed to pull enough votes away from Brady to allow Quinn, with Sheila Simon as his replacement running mate, to win with quite a bit less than 50% of the vote.

        Two potential primary challengers to Quinn, if he runs for re-election, include Attorney General Lisa Madigan and State Representative Jack Franks. Democrats need to get behind one primary challenger to Quinn if he runs for re-election, as Illinois does not have a primary runoff like some other states do.

        Kirk Dillard and Dan Rutherford are the two best candidates Illinois Republicans can run statewide in 2014, and Dillard has already announced his intention to run for governor. Aaron Schock apparently talked with the Republican Governors' Association about a possible 2014 gubernatorial run as well, although Schock has some ethical issues that I detailed in this blog post.

        Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 07:56:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why would we assume (0+ / 0-)

          Cohen, who is a Democrat, would have taken votes from  Quinn?  I suppose it's possible, but why would I take that to the bank?

          In the Senate race, an even worse Dem - Giannoulias - lost by only 2% to a very strong Republican - Mark Kirk.

          My takeaway from Illinois in 2010 is that Cook County is going to go heavy blue no matter what and is going to get any Democrat most of the way to victory, and it is going to take both a terrible Dem and a strong Republican to eff up a Democratic victory.  I could be wrong, but I am sticking with the rating.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

          by spiderdem on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 04:17:30 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Lots of these incumbents have had jumpy approvals (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, AussieforObama2ndterm

    Kasich, Scott, Malloy, Abercrombie et al were struggling and now look stronger. Corbett, Snyder and Haley were doing fine and now they aren't. I find these much harder to rank than Senate races. At least for now.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 03:45:13 AM PST

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site