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Leading Off:

MI-Gov: The Michigan gubernatorial race took on much greater significance Tuesday, with Republican incumbent Rick Snyder's signing of rushed-through right-to-work legislation. Before this, it seemed like the usually non-controversial Snyder was one of the less vulnerable members of the gubernatorial class of 2010, but he may have vaulted himself up the list, in this very union-centric state.

With that in mind, the Detroit Free Press took a look at their picks for the six likeliest Democratic contenders. Their top two are names you already probably know: state Senate minority leader Gretchen Whitmer and Rep. Gary Peters (they put Whitmer at the top of the list, for whatever that's worth). Lansing mayor Virg Bernero is also on the list, though he seems like kind of a non-starter after faring poorly against Snyder in 2010. Rounding out the list are ex-Rep. Mark Schauer (who's been co-chairing the Jobs21 program of the Blue Green Alliance of environmentalists and unionists), Denise Ilitch (rich person and Univ. of Michigan regent, whom you might remember briefly testing the MI-Gov waters in 2010), and a name I hadn't heard before, Macomb Co. Executive Mark Hackel (who seems like he'd be on the right flank of the Dem field).

Also, there's the open question of whether the right-to-work legislation can be overturned via more direct means (merely electing a Democrat governor alone wouldn't do it; it would also require electing a Democratic state legislature, using the currently gerrymandered map). One solution that labor is already pushing is challenging the law through the courts on open meeting law grounds, seeing as how the bill was accomplished without requisite public hearings.

Failing that, Michigan does have the initiative process (a $1 million appropriation was attached to make it "referendum-proof," but it could still be challenged by an initiative originating with the voters). It'd require 285,000 signatures, a fairly high bar, but one that union canvassers ought to be able to meet. Hopefully they'll learn from Wisconsin's experience and avoid the temptation of recalls, though; patience seems a better approach when the Gov. and entire legislature are up in 2014 anyway.


KY-Sen '16: Public Policy Polling cleared the decks of all the miscellany from their Kentucky poll; one number that is especially eye-catching is that current Dem. Gov Steve Beshear actually tops Rand Paul, 46-44, in a hypothetical 2016 matchup. Termed-out Beshear -- the state's most popular politician, with a 51/34 approval -- will be looking for a new job in 2015, or more likely thinking about retirement; he's already ruled out a Senate run in 2014. Ashley Judd, who was surprisingly viable against Mitch McConnell, fares about the same against Paul, down 47-44.

Also noteworthy: Hillary Clinton fares well here in 2016, indicative that the Clintons still maintain some unique appeal in Appalachia that other Dems don't; she leads Paul by 5 and Marco Rubio by 8. (PPP also has some North Carolina miscellany, not much worth reporting from that other than that Pat McCrory enters office with 53/25 favorables while Bev Perdue leaves with 35/52 approvals.)

SC-Sen-A, SC-Sen-B: Rep. Mick Mulvaney got taken down a peg or three when he wasn't included on Nikki Haley's "short list" of Senate replacements (despite his previous expression of confidence); now he's saying that he'd be fully behind fellow House members Tim Scott or Trey Gowdy for the job (both of whom were on the short list). As for one of the other picks, though, he didn't rule out challenging them in the a special election primary in 2014 -- especially Jenny Sanford, about whom he said "I'm not really sure why she's on the list."

Maybe more significantly, he also took himself out of contention for a GOP primary challenge to Lindsey Graham in the regularly-scheduled election; last week, state Sen. Tom Davis, who'd been treated as the likeliest primary challenger to Graham, said that he "probably wouldn't" run but that he hoped that Mulvaney would take on Graham.


IL-Gov: Joe Walsh continuing to run his mouth, despite getting badly beaten for re-election, is not in itself newsworthy. If it involves a run for higher office, though, I suppose it's at least worth a mention. At his final town meeting over the weekend, he refused to rule out a run for something else, and specifically said, "This Republican Party needs a Scott Walker to run for governor, and I haven't seen or heard that candidate."

On the Democratic side, one other potential Illinois gubernatorial candidate has bubbled up too. It's John Atkinson, a wealthy insurance exec who could self-fund; he's floating his name for a primary challenge to unpopular incumbent governor Pat Quinn. If Atkinson's name sounds vaguely familiar, he'd been planning to primary Dan Lipiniski in IL-03 from the left in 2012, up until redistricting saved Lipinski (by placing Atkinson's house in the 11th, and giving Lipinski a swingier, more-suburban district better suited for his conservaDem leanings).

NY-Gov: Popular culture would have you believe that New Yorkers hate everyone and everything, but they're apparently a bunch of shiny happy people right now, according to Quinnipiac's new poll of approvals-only. They like Barack Obama (62/35), they like Charles Schumer (63/23), they really like Kirsten Gillibrand (61/18), and they looooove Andrew Cuomo (74/13). While they don't exactly like the legislature (35/46), they do approve of the coalition in charge of the Senate, which they favor at 48% to 31% for Democratic control and 17% for Republican control.


IL-02: It was an idea that seemed very apparently unwise from a branding perspective (in much the same way that we didn't see Jeb Bush run for president in 2008). And Sandi Jackson -- Chicago alderwoman, but more significantly, wife of recently-resigned Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. -- seems to have realized that, confirming that she won't be a candidate in the special election to replace her husband. (She also says she won't be resigning as alderwoman unless "something catastrophic" happens.)

Grab Bag:

Ads: We've already seen some anecdotal evidence of this, like that analysis of the Omaha media market a few weeks ago. But now we're seeing it on a more-thorough, national scale: a full analysis of ad spending by the Obama and Romney campaigns finds that the Obama campaign spent less overall on advertising and yet managed to air more ads and have more visibility in key markets, thanks to a focus on finding the most efficient ad slots. Especially worth seeing, the Washinton Post's story comes with a cool graphic showing the week-by-week tide of pro-Romney vs. anti-Romney ads sloshing back and forth.

Census: If there are any Republican strategists going around with pants still unsoiled after reading this year's exit polls and county-level results, well, that should change, after reading the Census Bureau's newest population projections. They're projecting that the U.S. will no longer have a non-Hispanic white majority by the year 2043, and by 2060, minorities will comprise 57% of the population. The non-Hispanic white population is expected to peak in 2024 and start falling (not just on a percentage basis but in terms of raw numbers), falling from 199 million in 2024 to 179 million in 2060. (The country's total population is expected to be a whopping 420 million in 2060.)

Dark money: It's only going to apply at the state level (and not, say, U.S. House races in New York), but New York's Attorney General, Eric Schneiderman, is pushing new rules that would shake up the dark money system, going well beyond anything happening at the federal level. Tax-exempt "charitable" groups doing business in New York would have to disclose what percentage of their spending goes to political activities, and any group spending more than $10,000 on elections in New York would need to disclose the name of any donor giving $100 or more. (This is all at the regulatory level, rather than being legislation that would have to survive the state's Republican-quasi-controlled Senate.)

DCCC: The DCCC is hitting 21 House Republicans over the fiscal "cliff" negotiations with radio ads and web videos. We don't usually get up and dance every time the DCCC blasts out another press release about their latest round of web videos, but this is moderately interesting since it's early in the cycle and this gives some insight into where they think they might be playing offense in two years' time. (Here's a sample of the web video, targeting Gary Miller in CA-31.)

In addition to CA-31, they're also doing web videos in FL-10, IA-03, MN-02, NY-19, and WA-03, while doing radio in AR-01, AR-02, CA-10, CA-25, FL-02, LA-04, MN-03, NE-02, NV-03, NY-23, OH-06, PA-08, SD-AL, VA-10, and WV-01. (OK, so LA-04? Maybe they're hoping that becomes an open seat if John Fleming runs for Senate.)

Pres-by-CD: Another day, another 18 districts. Today, we cover the remaining districts in California and Illinois, as well as all of Maryland.

California (CA-01 through CA-05, CA-16, CA-21, CA-22)

Illinois (IL-13, IL-16, and IL-18)

Maryland (statewide)

Reps. Gary Miller and Jeff Denham get another friend in the club of California Republicans representing Obama districts: incoming freshman Rep. David Valadao, whose CA-21 gave Obama 54.6 percent of the vote. (Dem nominee John Hernandez lagged Obama by more than 10 points.) The results that people have sent in have allowed us to finish our calculations before the Secretary of State has even formally certified the election. Accordingly, we're not closing the books on this one entirely yet; we'll revisit on Friday, when the state certifies, to ensure that our totals cross-check against the certified ones.

My colleague David Jarman described the Madiganmander in Illinois as "precise", and indeed it is. In addition to the 57-58 percent Obama districts designed to be Dem pickups upstate, the swingy IL-13 was, well, swingy: the 900-vote margin between Obama and Romney is the closest one we've calculated to date.

Finally, in Maryland, the Democratic gerrymander not only held up nicely, but was also buoyed by the slight swing towards Obama across the state. Obama saw only a slight drop-off in the designed-pickup 6th, but Dem John Delaney beat incumbent Roscoe Bartlett anyway (by a not-close 20 points). Maryland, like North Carolina, also has an early-vote allocation problem; as with NC, we'll update should we get more detailed information.

As a bonus, we also ran some quick numbers on how Question 6 (which affirmed marriage equality in the state) performed across the districts: 'Yes' (for marriage equality) was blown out in MD-01 (losing by 14) and lost narrowly in MD-04 and MD-05 (by about 400 votes in the former, 4 points in the latter). The good guys won narrowly in 3 other districts: MD-02 (by a point), MD-06 (by 5 points), MD-07 (by 8 points), and utterly romped in MD-03 (Yes +18) and as expected, MD-08 (Yes +25). (jeffmd)

Special elections: Can you believe we're already having our first legislative special elections of the cycle? Here's Johnny Longtorso with last night's results (from two GOP-held seats that the Dems weren't expected to pick up):

Alabama HD-30 - This one ended up being surprisingly close. Republican Mack Butler defeated Democrat Beth McGlaughn by a 53-47 margin. This district isn't one that just flipped to the Republicans in 2010, either -- the previous incumbent had been in office since 1994.

Iowa SD-22 - Nothing to see here. Republican Charles Schneider defeated Democrat Desmund Adams 57-43 to hold the seat for his party.

Trendspotting: Our Dreaminonempty is out with a piece looking at the very slow but definitely perceptible trend in the Democrats' direction at the presidential level over the last three decades, accompanied by some historical evidence reminding us that a trend is a trend up until, well, it isn't a trend anymore.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Hoosiers Against Marriage Amendment 54-38!! (9+ / 0-)


    This is truly remarkable.  However, I do still think the legislature will pass it.  I am encouraged for 2014 now, and I think we actually might defeat this thing.

    27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

    by IndyLiberal on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 05:24:22 AM PST

  •  Michigan Republicans are digging their own (6+ / 0-)

    graves for the 2014 elections. Perhaps then a state that voted for Obama by nearly 55% can have more than 37% Democrats in the state legislature.

    Let's go back to E Pluribus Unum

    by hazzcon on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 05:34:03 AM PST

  •  Mark Hackel for Michigan Gov. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dogman70, MichaelNY

    A total non-starter.

    While he is somewhat (not wholly) telegenic, he's been a mediocre to poor administrator in constant conflict with everyone he comes in contact with in county government. He has seemed much more interested in feathering his own nest than in good government. But worst of all, he's virtually unknown outside of Macomb County.

    Wealth doesn't trickle down -- it rises up.

    by elsaf on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 05:37:49 AM PST

    •  And the GOOD candidates are... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      brabc1, MichaelNY

      Gretchen Whitmer would be good, but Gary Peters would be excellent.

      Wealth doesn't trickle down -- it rises up.

      by elsaf on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 05:45:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Gary Peter won't do it. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I'm not against Gary, although he has lost statewide before. I just think now that he has a safe Congressional Seat he won't leave it for anything short of Carl Levin retiring.

        Mark Schauer is a great candidate too.

        However, I've always been on the Andy Meisner for Governor bandwagon. He has done a great job as Oakland County Treaurer and that a great base to build on for statewide office. Plus he's very progressive.

        •  I would argue (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          "very progressive" won't do that well in a statewide race, unfortunately.

        •  Peters doesn't have a safe seat (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          elsaf, blueonyx, sacman701, MichaelNY, jncca

          he's representing an African American majority district, meaning unless he represents them as well as Steve Cohen, he has a good chance of being beaten by someone from the African American community there in the primary.  This is why myself and many others thought it was a temporary move for him.  He just needed to keep a seat long enough to run for something statewide.  And he's also too moderate for his district, given his record.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 06:34:07 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Meisner (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          He would be a good candidate for AG if Whitmer runs for governor instead of AG.  

          •  I kind of feel the opposite... (0+ / 0-)

            I wouldn't mind Meisner running for AG, but he has no prior legal background.

            However, he does have a strong base of support in Oakland County as Treasurer, which would be more of an executive type role.

            Whitmer started running for AG in 2010 and ended up bowing out because she has small children.

            I'm afraid that Whitmer ends up not running for anything again because of her small children...

            I just hope we have our A-Team for every race in 2014!

        •  Question (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Since your from Michigan, and you can tell us better what's going on first hand. What your gut feeling about the level of Carl Levin retiring. Have you been hearing anything on the ground in Michigan about the speculation of a possible retirement?

          Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

          by BKGyptian89 on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 08:40:43 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I haven't (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            I haven't heard anything about Carl Levin retiring. I suppose he will someday.

            We shouldn't sit on our hands. We should be thinking about a successor even if he isn't ready to leave.

            Wealth doesn't trickle down -- it rises up.

            by elsaf on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 11:20:43 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Exactly cause Im not sure if he is or not. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              Just in case he does, then Peters would be the obvious favorite. I see Whitmer only as possible for Governor, while Peters is both a possible Senator or Governor. And he only 54 which is young for senate standards.

              Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

              by BKGyptian89 on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 11:53:33 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Gov. Snyder's office number (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:


    It's not easy being a Floridian: PS I'm a lawYER now; no longer a lawSTUDENT.

    by lawstudent922 on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 05:40:55 AM PST

  •  Little nikki has a spark of reality thought (0+ / 0-)

    What do ya know, little nikki really does speak truth occasionally, so cells do fire on reality once in awhile!!

    S.C. Gov. Haley: No political experience necessary to fill DeMint's seat

    Vets On FLOTUS and SLOTUS, "Best - Ever": "We haven't had this kind of visibility from the White House—ever." Joyce Raezer - Dec. 30, 2011

    by jimstaro on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 05:47:51 AM PST

  •  There Is A Concerted Effort By The Koch Bought And (6+ / 0-)

    paid for GOP governors in the Rust Belt states to eliminate unions (and thus weaken the Democratic party in those states). Democrats need to have an overall Rust Belt strategy to go on the offensive against the right wing in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Indiana. It starts with getting rid of GOP governors and legislators in those states. Maybe then we can get rid of the odious, union busting, race to the bottom, billionaire funded legislation that keeps threatening workers and the middle class. Democrats can't afford to be complacent and play defense anymore - look what has happened. We had the GOP posing as moderates to get elected in the various Rust Belt state houses, and then gerrymandering of districts to make it hard for the electorate to vote them out of office, etc.  It's time for Democrats to start playing hardball in the Rust Belt!!

  •  In other news (0+ / 0-)

    58% of New Yorkers are idiots.

    •  Context (0+ / 0-)

      I'm referring to the Quinnipiac result not reported above, in which 53% of those polled said that the NY Senate coalition was likely to be effective, versus 30% that said it was a power grab.  (Which is obviously is.)

  •  Is It Just Me (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wilmguy, LordMike

    Or are the tepubs starting a new rovian speak meme about the roll of elected representatives?

    We hire them, though the minority votes don't always get the right employee!

    We pay them, certainly in this past decade plus of huge wealthy tax cuts!

    We give them extremely handsome compensations and perks unheard of for the labor we ourselves do!

    I've heard a few references from Pat McCrory the newly elected governor of NC, not yet in office, as to the label 'customers' when it comes to the people of the state he will now lead, like 'customer service' and a few others have said similar.

    Well this morning NPR's Morning Edition had a phone call with the MI governor about the right to work laws and near the end he says just that 'serving his customers', i.e. the residents of the state.

    So in other words he's doing the rove telegraphing that he doesn't 'work' for us but that the residents of are now 'customers' his customers.

    For me that speaks volumes as to especially the once almost sacred, or supposedly, the customer is always right, by good business practices and business minds, so concentration once was on good customer service, that has greatly waned as products produced now are throw a way's and more often then not are on recalls because of bad production!

    Vets On FLOTUS and SLOTUS, "Best - Ever": "We haven't had this kind of visibility from the White House—ever." Joyce Raezer - Dec. 30, 2011

    by jimstaro on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 06:09:30 AM PST

  •  2014 and patience in Michigan is (10+ / 0-)

    the right way to go.  These laws don't affect current contracts, so a bunch of unions won't be affected before 2014 anyway, and, as a teacher who took part in the Ohio SB5 referendum which collected 1.3 million signatures, I can tell you that the education, outreach and organization will do a whole lot for Michigan democrats and labor in the 2014 midterm elections and beyond.  Michigan unions have 670,000 members, so they will easily blow past the 260,000 signatures necessary.  I can tell you that waiting until 2014 to do it will be a nerve wracking 2 years, though.

    •  Agreed (6+ / 0-)

      This law is a lawyer's dream.  It will be tied up in the courts for at least two years, and for that reason alone will not attract any new business to Michigan until the dust settles.  

      While it might have been nice to put the law to a referendum and suspend the law until the next general election, since the initiative process will take a little longer, the issues will ripen just in time for the 2014 vote, when every state representative, every state senator, the governor, Senator Levin, and every Michigan representative in the U.S. Congress will have to face the voters.  

      Snyder is toast.  

      •  RTWFL laws are not proven getters of business (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        the growth of a given state is based off of four factors IMO:
        1) being below the 37th parallel
        2) proximity to Mexico
        3) location near a body of water
        4) mountains/scenery

        The states that have grown the fastest (CA, TX, FL) have at least three of those.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 07:17:27 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Unions weren't voted into existence. (5+ / 0-)

      When are we going to learn that unions get their power from organizing in workplaces and not from electoral politics? A major pro-labor referendum in Michigan went down to crashing defeat, as did the recall in WI (which I worked for, heart and soul). The Chicago CTU teachers' strike, on the other hand, was a tremendous success.

      And we're still talking patience and a strategy for 2014 and relying on the courts?

      Unions get their power from their ability and WILLINGNESS to strike. A successful strike requires organization in advance, a key element in the CTU victory. That's what we should be focusing on, not searching for candidates for 2014.

      Solidarity, because we need it now more than ever.

      Where photos come out and play. foldplay

      by urbazewski on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 08:23:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I 100% disagree... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PassionateJus, LordMike, MichaelNY

      You need to strike back with the voter initiative NOW while the passions and motivation of the voters are aroused.  The sooner you get something on a 2013 ballot, the sooner the Repubs know they unleashed a powder keg...But I heard ballot initiatives are only allowed in even numbers years in Mich...Is this true???...Jim, Columbus, OH

  •  MI-Gov: Mark Schauer (5+ / 0-)

    Full disclosure: I was an intern on Mark Schauer's 2008 congressional campaign, and ran a blog for two years that covered that district. Life has taken me out of Michigan for a few years now, but I try to follow along from a distance.

    I'd be thrilled to see Schauer as the nominee, and I think he'd stand a good chance to be elected too. "Defeated one-term congressman" isn't necessarily the best opening line on a resume, but in anything other than the total disaster that was 2010, I think he manages a narrow win. The guy can flat-out campaign, and south-central Michigan isn't nearly as reactionary-conservative as Tim Walberg is. I hate the fact that we didn't find someone credible to run against him in 2012.

    The Free Press is also selling him a bit short, too-- before he was in Congress, he was Democratic leader in the state Senate and presumably still has some good relationships in the legislature and in the party. And in my experience with him, he came across as a smart, genuine, and decent guy. He was there with the protesters at the capitol, was pepper sprayed, and defused a tense situation to keep things nonviolent.

    Does he want to run? I've got no idea. If he runs, he gets a donation from me on day one. If he doesn't, I think he's an obvious choice for lieutenant governor, both for his experience and campaign abilities and for his possible geographic balance-- he's the closest thing we have to a West Michigan Democrat with a high-ish profile.

    Generally, I'd be happy with Schauer, Peters, or Whitmer as the nominee. I'm less enthusiastic about Bernero, Hackel, or Illitch.

  •  Organize and Educate (5+ / 0-)

    Watching what played out over the last two weeks in Michigan as well as Wisconsin and Ohio it's clear we need a coordinated strategy across the Rust Belt states to define a proactive approach to dealing with the Koch/DeVos assault on workers and government as a whole.  We need this to multiply the impact of our message and we need to share resources.

    One really obvious point from the rally at the Capitol on Thursday: Michigan's assault on workers has strengthened solidarity across union lines and state borders.  It felt terrific to see so many people from Wisconsin, Illinois, and Ohio marching and standing with Michigan.  We need that both for our own morale and to push back the well-funded machine on the extreme right.  

    Education is one area I personally plan to work harder.  I am a writer and a teacher so that is my talent.  An article yesterday in the Free Press makes a good case that unions need to draw contrasts between life before and after organized labor.  As union membership has declined over the last few decades, the majority of people have no clue what unions do or anything about labor struggles two or three generations ago.  Time for more social media style teach-ins and one-on-one conversations.

    We also need to target Republicans in the state house and senate NOW, defining them by their extremist views and finding our challengers.  Gerrymandered districts or not, grass roots organizing can nurture strong candidates who will win in 2014.  Define the worst of the candidates, target the weakest, win in 2014.  That work starts now.  I would like to see a solid challenger for Rep Posthumus Lyons in Lowell; I would also like to see continued support for Betsy Coffia in Grand Traverse Co, a real progressive who has what it takes to win in N Michigan and Traverse City.

  •  Pew poll: job approval and more (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, MBishop1, redrelic17

    Job approval at 55%.  Public sides with Obama over Republicans on fiscal fight 55-32.  Raise income tax on $250K and over by 69-28.  56% disapproval of raising social security or Medicare age.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 08:09:57 AM PST

    •  If it's true (4+ / 0-)

      that Republicans want to cave on the upper-income tax cuts and take up the fight on entitlements early next year with the debt ceiling as leverage, I think they may be setting themselves up for a world of hurt. At that point, we'll already have higher tax revenues in our pocket, and the Rs will be threatening global fiscal calamity for items on which the public disagrees with them by healthy majorities. Seems a little like a suicide mission.

  •  A little Whitmer (3+ / 0-)

    from last week

  •  Responses to some of yesterdays posts (0+ / 0-)

    MichaelNY: I think it's irrelevant if Valadao is popular.  By 2016 this district will be D+6 at the very least (if not more) and unlike this year we're almost guaranteed to have someone serious actually run.  It was 49% CVAP Hispanic in 2010, 66% by VAP, 71% Hispanic by total pop, and probably much higher with under 18, meaning it's going to zoom leftward for the for.  I'm pretty confident Dean Florez or Michael Rubio would have beaten Valadao comfortably this year.  Or of course, Jim Costa, who should have run there and would have easily won and is on my needs-a-primary-list because of that, his underperforming in his district, and more importantly his relative conservatism to what the 16th could support.

    DCCyclone: The distinction I was trying to make is that Brown and Chafee were personally popular but that personal popularity didn't translate into electoral popularity.  I'm not trying to split hairs, I just don't want people thinking Brown lost because people didn't like him.  They do, but they just like Democrats more.  The guy isn't Connie Mack IV or Josh Mandel who just came across as an entitled dick.

    Skaje: When I said leaving McConnell unopposed if our only option is Ashley Judd I should have specified that I didn't mean we'd field a some dude, but that it would specifically be unopposed so that Republicans wouldn't have a reason to turnout and that turnout would depend on local races.  I don't know of an example of a terrible gubernatorial or senate candidate dragging down the ticket when they were in the only statewide race, but Tennessee in 2010 certainly comes to mind in that we shouldn't have been losing races like TN-04 and TN-08 by 20 points (should have been more like 10) and getting slaughtered in the legislature.  It's just that it puts the party in a really awkward position when tons of legislative candidates have to disavow the top of the ticket in their own state.

    Also if Nick Goedert is reading this thanks for stopping by and engaging with us yesterday.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 05:47:15 PM PST

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