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Here we go.  This is hypothetical, of course.

1st District: Jack Kingston (R)

Statistics (from 2008): R+20, 70% White, 23% Black

This district takes up much of Republican South Georgia.  It's very rural, with Valdosta and some of the Savannah Suburbs as its only real population centers.  It does use water contiguity; if that is not allowed then it can have a strip along the coast.  The Democratic average is only 39%, so don't think about a Blue Dog picking this seat up; this part of Georgia turned red by 1994.  

2nd District: Sanford Bishop (D)

Statistics: D+8, 50% Black, 41% White
I made this a VRA district, but excluded Macon and instead stretched it into Clayton County.  Major changes from the old map are losing 8 conservative South Georgia counties and 2 conservative Central Georgia ones, while picking up the conservative parts of Columbus, Meriwether County, a bit of La Grange, and the arm to Clayton County.

3rd District: Lynn Westmoreland (R)
Statistics: R+25.  79% White, 13% Black

This district combines parts of Westmoreland's old district with parts of Gingrey's to make a major vote sink.  The county with the lowest PVI here is R+20.

4th District: Hank Johnson (D-Guam)
Statistics: D+11, 52% Black, 39% White

Johnson takes a big hit, but has no reason to worry. I tried to keep him as safe as possible in a primary, giving him as many of the same precincts in DeKalb County that I could.  A portion of Gwinnett in here is pretty blue, but the rest is blood red Barrow, Walton, and Oconee Counties.  Now that I think about it, the Black population could be lowered with some Black precincts given to one of the more marginal districts.

5th District: John Lewis (D)
Statistics: D+9, 50% Black, 42% White
Lewis also takes a big hit.  Paulding County is R+23, and his portion of Cobb County is similar.  Douglas is Even now, though, and Atlanta should still be the biggest part of the primary electorate, which is all Lewis needs to worry about.

6th District: Tom Price (R)
Statistics: R+18, 71% White, 10% Asian, 9% Black, 8% Hispanic
Price loses the more rural parts of Cherokee County, as well as his few blue precincts on the South end of his district.  In return, he gets a conservative arm into Gwinnett.  It's still very compact for a vote sink.

7th District: Rob Woodall (R)
Statistics: D+4, 46% White, 22% Hispanic, 20% Black, 11% Asian

Woodall gets a basically unwinnable, majority-minority VAP district.  This would be a good place for a statewide bid, as the representative would likely be somewhat moderate, especially since they'll have to survive minority dropoff in a midterm.  It's also getting bluer by the cycle.  Who would be a good candidate here, Georgians?

8th District: Austin Scott (R)
Statistics: R+21, 70% White, 23% Black

Jim Marshall's old district is completely conceded to the GOP.  The district loses its only blue area, Macon and 2 rural Black counties, as well as Laurens which has some conservaDems.  It grows outward on both sides in places but retains a similar shape.

9th District: Tom Graves (R)
Statistics: R+29, 87% White, 8% Hispanic

Rural and as red as it gets in Appalachian North Georgia.  The bluest county is R+22 Chatooga.

10th District: Paul Broun (R)
Statistics: D+5, 52% White, 41% Black

Seeing Paul Broun run in a D+5 district would be amusing; he'd have as much of a chance as Joe Walsh did this cycle.  This district is (in my humble opinion) a masterpiece, creating a blue district by combining Athens, Macon, some of Augusta, and rural areas in between while leaving enough Democrats for Barrow to be safe as well.  

11th District: Phil Gingrey (R)
Statistics: D+3, 58% White, 24% Black, 11% Hispanic

Gingrey should lose here, although not overwhelmingly.  The district takes the central part of Fulton County, full of White liberals, as well as all the non-blood red parts of Cobb County to make a Lean Democratic district.

12th District: John Barrow (D)
Statistics: D+1, 54% White, 38% Black

Barrow's worries are once again more primary than general oriented.  However, I kept conservaDem areas in to protect him (the places local Dems overperformed most in 2012): Montgomery, Wheeler, Telfair, and Laurens are all places Barrow could get over 45% in.  A Black liberal primary challenger could lose a general but it'd still Tilt Democratic.

13th District: David Scott (D)
Statistics: D+9, 50% Black, 38% White

Not the most visually appealing because of Bishop's arm into Clayton County, but nonetheless effective in keeping much of Scott's base and keeping the district blue.  R+19 Butts County won't be so happy though.

14th District: Doug Collins (R)
Statistics: R+28, 76% White, 10% Hispanic, 8% Black

Not the greatest looking district because it was a filler district, but it does the vote sink job very effectively.

And there you have it.



How would you grade this gerrymander?

43%25 votes
31%18 votes
5%3 votes
3%2 votes
17%10 votes

| 58 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (12+ / 0-)

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Sat Dec 08, 2012 at 10:08:45 PM PST

  •  Good job (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Nice work!  I love Georgia.  Barrow's pretty much entrenched as a conservative Democrat now and he can survive in probably up to a 54% or 55% Republican district, so I'd make an Athens-Augusta and Macon-Columbus district, leaving more Democratic strength in Clayton for an Atlanta area district.  I do like your Athens-Augusta-Macon district, though.

    •  I wanted something we could hold if and when (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Barrow retires.  I think he could hold up to about R+7 just fine, but with trends, midterm turnout, and possible retirement I thought this was safer.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sat Dec 08, 2012 at 11:50:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'll read this more carefully tomorrow (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    but it looks really well done. I've taken the liberty of adding a couple of tags, and suggest you might  add a few more (names like Paul Broun, maybe the cities).

    I also want to remind everyone here who lives in Georgia to join the Kos Georgia group. If you're already a member, message your location. And if anyone can tell me how to change the group's editor in chief, as she's no longer active here, I'd be much obliged. Our new profile will be much more political on the local level.

    It's not just a zip code, it's an attitude.

    by sboucher on Sat Dec 08, 2012 at 10:58:39 PM PST

  •  John Carter in your 7th. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Englishlefty, jncca

    He's not a moderate, but neither party has any kind of bench of moderates. He would win a D+4 district, and the district is running left. It could be D+10 by the end of the decade.

    It would be unique for Georgia - a wealthy district electing a liberal Democrat. Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sun Dec 09, 2012 at 04:18:02 AM PST

  •  Excellent!!! (0+ / 0-)

    This is exactly the sort of mapping Georgia democrats need to be doing.

    We are, of course, working with the maps we have in the real world, and Democrats are not likely to be redrawing the maps for a long time, but we need to be acutely aware of how districts are drawn, and what the alternatives would be.

    What I'd like to see is some comparisons of what the electoral maps would be if turnout among current Democratic consituencies were as high as turnouts among GOP constituencies, given the existing apportionment.

    I've started thinking about how to do that, but GIS isn't a strength of mine.

  •  Great map! (0+ / 0-)

    I especially love the clean part. I think the 7th definitely will trend Democratic overtime but I'm a bit worried about midterm dropoff in Gwinnett County because Democrats did very poorly there in 2010.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

    by Alibguy on Sun Dec 09, 2012 at 07:39:54 AM PST

  •  Nice map! (0+ / 0-)

    It's amazing the difference a gerrymander can make. Great work.

  •  Interesting map (0+ / 0-)

    It's not as clean as I was expecting, but it definitely does the job and I have no doubt that GA Dems would be bothered by any ugliness of the districts since this is still way cleaner than the 2002 map.

    Here's an alternate one I've drawn that's a little cleaner but leaves Barrow in a narrowly McCain district.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Sun Dec 09, 2012 at 03:23:15 PM PST

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