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10:11 AM PT: Pres-by-CD: We've got 28 more districts today, mostly thanks to a large dump from Los Angeles County (and the 17 districts that it allowed us to complete):

California (23 more: CA-14, 17-20, 24-30, 32-35, 37-40, 43, 44 & 47)

Illinois (1 more: IL-17)

Mississippi (statewide)

Consistent with the pattern we've seen, minority-heavy districts swung towards Obama.  Republican Gary DeLong kept it respectable in the Long Beach-based CA-47, but with Romney lagging by more than 22, there wasn't much of a chance for him. Elsewhere, there was some, but not substantial, softening. (Obama got 61% in the Westside/South Bay-based CA-33, but Henry Waxman lagged substantially with his 54% performance.) Outside of L.A. County, Obama saw a slight drop in the Central Coast-based CA-24 and the Silicon Valley-based CA-18, but also saw improvements and mostly held the line in the other San Jose-based districts.

10:20 AM PT: VA-Gov: Ah, too bad: Former Congressman and progressive hero Tom Perriello says he will not run for governor next year, following a few hazy reports that suggested he was considering a bid. Instead, he's endorsing former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe, which makes it seem increasingly likely that T-Mac will have a clear primary field. As for Perriello's future, he says: "I do not feel called to serve in elected office at this time, but I do not need to have my name on the ballot to be part of the fight." Hopefully he'll run for something again in the near future, though, but at just 38 years of age, he has a lot of time to plan his next steps.

10:49 AM PT: SC-Gov: For whatever reason, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's come up a bunch in the comments here at Daily Kos Elections in recent days, with a lot of people wondering if she might be vulnerable to a challenge in 2014. Despite running in a very red state in a very red year, Haley only first won office with a four-point victory over Democrat Vincent Sheheen in 2010, and Sheheen (just 41) may well run again. But has Haley managed to recover her mojo—to the extent she ever had any? Maybe not, according to a new Winthrop University poll, which has her job approval rating at a rather mediocre 38-41. That's actually down a touch since April, when she stood at an even 37-37.

But why is Haley down in the dumps? I'd wager there are a number of reasons. Both sex and race could both be playing a role (Haley's parents are immigrants from India). But she also came into office as the protégé of disgraced ex-Gov. Mark Sanford, who alienated a lot of his fellow Republicans and of course departed office in humiliating fashion. While Haley's not quite the lone wolf Sanford was, like her predecessor, she's often had a rocky relationship with the legislature, and those ugly spats don't tend to play well for either side. A recent article in The State sums things up well:

Critics say Haley has adopted an insular management style, surrounding herself with a small group of 20-something former campaign staffers, led until recently by a young chief of staff, with limited state government experience. She also employs an "us vs. them" mentality against her perceived foes.

The result?

Haley has alienated some former allies, made powerful enemies and damaged relationships with legislators who could have helped pass her agenda. A list of the bruised extends from Tea Party elements and the libertarian Policy Council, both of which once championed Haley, to fellow Republicans, including House Speaker Bobby Harrell.

The piece goes on to add that while Haley has managed to secure the support of the state's business community, lots of observers think she's more interested in national aspirations than what's going on back home. That's the sort of line of attack that could be extremely potent in a general election, since it would allow someone like Sheheen to go after Haley over a decidedly non-partisan issue—the kind of thing a Democrat running on red turf needs to be able to do. Haley has lots of time to turn things around before election day, of course, but without a course correction, she could indeed find herself in trouble.

P.S. Want one more bad sign for Haley? Obama somehow has a 48-41 approval score in this same Winthrop poll. Now, maybe that's a sign this survey perhaps leans a bit too Dem, but regardless, for a Republican governor in South Carolina to chalk up a worse rating than a Democratic president... well, that's pretty awful.

11:35 AM PT: LA-03: If you'd like some more background on the issues being fought over in the all-GOP LA-03 runoff between Reps. Charles Boustany and Jeff Landry, the Times Picayune has a very good, detailed summation. The two congressmen are going after each other on things like energy exploration (Landry says he's the only one with an oil background) and, believe it or not, "death panels" (Boustany, a heart surgeon, supports end-of-life counseling). Much more at the link.

11:36 AM PT (David Jarman): WA-St. Sen.: When we last checked in on Washington's state Senate, there wasn't one-tenth the dysfunctional drama as in New York, but there was still complete uncertainty; Ed Murray had just been elected majority leader by the Dem caucus, but that was in the face of a potential coup by two moderate Democrats who might give some level of control to Republicans. We still don't have any resolution on that front (especially while we wait on a recount in SD-17, where GOPer Don Benton appears to have survived by less than 100 votes), but now there's a whole 'nother wrinkle in the story: Murray has announced he's going to run for Seattle mayor in 2013.

It's hard to tell what the implications are yet: it may seem like Murray's feeling a lot less confident about becoming majority leader and is looking for Plan B. But, Murray has also been talked about as a potential mayoral candidate for many years and may have been planning to forge ahead even if he were going to be majority leader this cycle, so it may mean nothing as far as the Senate is concerned.

11:57 AM PT: SD-Sen: I really don't think these new comments are very meaningful, seeing as Dem Sen. Tim Johnson had already made it quite clear that he hadn't reached a decision about whether to seek a fourth term in the Senate. So his remarks on Wednesday are not at all a surprise: "If I run again," said Johnson, "I will run a strong campaign is what I meant. But only if I run again, and it's far too soon to make that statement."

This is just tea leaves 101: Yes, Johnson said last week that "I fully intend to put together a winning campaign," but that was not at all dispositive. If Johnson wanted to put to rest any talk about a possible retirement, he could have done so at that time. Put another way: If a candidate does not definitively say, "Yes, I am running for re-election," then you should make no assumptions either way.

12:05 PM PT: NJ-LG: GOP Gov. Chris Christie's campaign is now confirming that Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno will remain a part of Christie's re-election ticket, even though just a week ago, Christie told reporters "I don't know what she wants." It seems odd to me that a matter like this would in any way get aired publicly—you'd think Christie's team would prefer to handle this entirely in private, lest anyone wonder whether there's dissension in the ranks. In any event, this probably takes Guadagno out of the running for a Senate bid, since New Jersey's gubernatorial election is in Nov. 2013. (Then again, I don't think anyone had seriously considered the possibility that she might run for federal office—PPP simply tossed her into their recent poll as a stand-in.)

12:18 PM PT: While we're on New Jersey, PPP is back with their usual sports-n-gay-marriage miscellany. (Not exactly the most obvious combination of question topics, but Tom Jensen is a polling iconoclast!) While it will likely never happen as long as Christie occupies Drumthwacket, New Jersey voters support same-sex marriage by a wide 53-36 margin. Democrats, who have big majorities in both chambers of the legislature, also lead 49-36 on the generic legislative ballot. (All seats will be up next year at the same time as the gubernatorial election.)

12:37 PM PT: DGA: The Democratic Governors Association have elected Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin, who just won a second two-year term in November, as their new chair. He succeeds Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, who will remain on as finance chair. Executive Director Colm O'Comartun is also staying on for another term as ED.

12:52 PM PT: NM-Sen: Businessman and former state GOP chair Allen Weh says he's considering a bid against Sen. Tom Udall and hopes to decide by next spring. Weh ran in the 2010 gubernatorial primary, coming in second with 28 percent in a five-way field. (The winner, now-Gov. Susana Martinez, cleared an outright majority.) You might also recall Weh, a Marine Corps vet, from his involvement in the tawdry U.S. Attorneys firing scandal—he advocated pushing out U.S.A. David Iglesias because he had refused to indict a Democratic legislator on voter fraud charges. Weh, 70, is wealthy and could self-fund his campaign, but he says he doesn't want to. He's far from a perfect candidate, but if he were to open up his checkbook, he could wind up being New Mexico Republicans' best bet, since they don't exactly have a top-flight bench.

12:57 PM PT: KY-Sen: Not that this was ever going to happen, but Dem Gov. Steve Beshear confirms he will not run against Sen. Mitch McConnell in 2014. Says Beshear, who once unsuccessfully challenged McConnell in 1996 (losing 56-43): "I have no interest in running for that or any other office."

2:28 PM PT: NY-St. Sen: Watch Gov. Andrew Cuomo wriggle like the snake he is:

[Cuomo] had harsh words about how his fellow Democrats ran the chamber in 2009 and 2010, when they held the majority. The conference leaders at the beginning of that period—Sens. Malcolm Smith of Queens and Jeff Klein of the Bronx—are now members of the IDC, poised to play major roles in the chamber.

Cuomo wriggled when asked if he was criticizing those men: "I don't think it's important to figure out who or why or how. But I think it's almost inarguable—it's as close to inarguable as any premise in this building—that that was not a good period of government."

So Cuomo's being all kind toward this new coalition of Republicans and their renegade Democratic enablers because (as he wrote in an op-ed on Wednesday) "the past two
years" of GOP control "evidenced higher levels of successful activity than the State Senate had previously produced in years." And in the same piece, he also said: "The Democratic Conference was in power for two years and squandered the opportunity, failing to pass any meaningful reform legislation despite repeated promises."

But it's obviously very inconvenient that two of the people responsible for the dysfunction in 2009 and 2010—Klein and Smith—are now at the heart of the new power-sharing structure. So Cuomo wants to blame an amorphous "Democratic Conference" for screwing things up two years ago as the reason he isn't supporting his own freakin' party (which holds a majority of seats in the chamber), but he also says it's not "important to figure out who or why or how" things got utterly derailed back then, so that he doesn't have to point a finger at, well, Klein and Smith. If it's "not important to figure out why," then how can the mistakes of the past be avoided?

And by the way, this is all a new tune for Cuomo. In the fall of 2010—even after the two painful years of Democratic quasi-control of the Senate—he was still saying:

I support a Democratic majority in the State Senate.
So what changed between then and now? Did Cuomo feel he had to say that because he was running for governor and needed to make sure the Democratic Party was consolidated behind him? Perhaps, but he won in such crushing fashion that I doubt this would have mattered. The only plausible explanation is that Cuomo, whose economic ideology is very right-leaning, grew to feel much more comfortable with Republicans in control of the Senate than Democrats. And this guy thinks he can win a presidential primary?

2:47 PM PT: CA-35: We've talked a lot about the unusual race in CA-35 since election day, which I think may have produced the most remarkable upset of the cycle. But I'm still going to recommend you read Dan Morain's piece in the Sacramento Bee discussing the contest between soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Joe Baca and state Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod, because I think it's the best analysis of the entire race I've seen to date.

In particular, Morain explains why exactly NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg's PAC, which is pretty much the only moneyed force in politics that's focused on advancing gun control, went after Baca—and how Baca was cut loose by the NRA despite asking for their help because he didn't vote to censure Eric Holder over "Fast and Furious." (A smart sacrifice for them: The NRA can point to Baca's loss and failure to support their entire agenda next time someone comes to them cap-in-hand.) Interestingly, Morain says Negrete McLeod "hardly is an anti-gunner," but Baca was evidently so offensive to Bloomberg that it didn't matter. In any event, as I say, the entire piece is worth a read.

3:10 PM PT: IL-Sen: Heh. If Michelle Obama were to pull a Hillary Clinton and run for Senate in the final year of her husband's presidency, PPP finds that she'd beat GOP Sen. Mark Kirk 51-40. While we often caution that two years is a long time in politics and things can change, I am of the opinion that polls taken four years in advance of a race are absolutely dead accurate, Nostradamus-like predictions of the future, so take this one to the bank, Senator-elect Obama!

3:14 PM PT: Passings: Former Democratic Texas Rep. Jack Brooks has died at the age of 89. The AP's lede offers a capsule summary of his career:

Jack Brooks hounded government bureaucrats, drafted President Richard Nixon’s articles of impeachment and supported civil rights bills in a congressional career spanning 42 years. But for most of the country the Southeast Texas politician is frozen in a photograph, standing over the left shoulder of Jacqueline Kennedy as Lyndon B. Johnson is sworn in as president.

Brooks, who died Tuesday at age 89, was in the Dallas motorcade on Nov. 22, 1963, when President John F. Kennedy was assassinated. Hours later he stood behind the grief-stricken widow in the cabin of Air Force One as Johnson took the oath of office.

The iconic photo is here.

3:29 PM PT: PA-Gov: Interesting: Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce Castor says he's thinking about challenging Gov. Tom Corbett... in the GOP primary. Castor ain't some Some Dude, either: He served as MontCO Da for two terms, and in 2004, Keegan Gibson notes, he lost the attorney general primary to Corbett by just five points. Of course, it would be quite a thing to knock off an incumbent governor in a primary, but at least Castor has something of a profile. (One other Republican, businessman Scott Wagner, has also expressed interest, but it's not clear how much mojo he's got.)

3:32 PM PT: IL-02: Uh, whoops? State Sen. Donne Trotter, who just announced he'd make a bid for ex-Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr.'s now-vacant seat was... just arrested at O'Hare for trying to bring a handgun and bullets through security? WTF? Well, yeah, apparently this did indeed happen. Some local reports have suggested Trotter might be a frontrunner in the crowded Democratic primary field thanks to his insider's game, but something like this definitely ain't gonna help him.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Rubio, Ryan, and Income Inequality (5+ / 0-)

    Apparently, there are some Rs who realize that they need to make changes on how Rs address income inequality to stay viable electorally on a national level.

    This would be serious -- but I'll believe it when I see it, ref http://www.theatlantic.com/...

    Drilling down into a source article, ref http://www.bloomberg.com/...

    This is an example of what I said two weeks ago: Conservatives do not have economic ideas that are good for the middle class. Since the 1970s, wage gains have decoupled from productivity gains and the median family has therefore reaped a disproportionately small share of the benefits of growth. Conservatives are left without anything to say about this problem.
    snip bolding mine
    If conservatives made peace with the need for more redistributive economic policy, they could fight to make sure it is pro-growth. For example, they could focus on minimizing poverty traps created by means-tested entitlements, and making sure the tax base is broad so progressivity can be achieved with relatively low tax rates.
    Roughly, this is what right-of-center political parties in Europe do.

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:19:02 AM PST

    •  There was an old (7+ / 0-)

      Matt Yglesias post that I am too lazy to dig up right now (but will if anyone really, really wants to see it) where he featured a clip of Ronald Reagan talking about the Earned Income Tax Credit. Yglesias mentioned how stuff like that used to be a point of conservative pride, because it essentially helped people helped themselves. I believe Reagan called it the best pro-family, anti-poverty program in existence. (There's also a more technical reason for why many economists prefer this over raising the minimum wage, but that's a different topic.)

      It actually dates back to Nixon, I believe, at least as far as implementation. (If not him, then Ford.) But while it used to be a Republican proposal, Democrats wisely adopted it. Pretty much every Democrat running for president talks about using it, as do many candidates for congress--Shelli Yoder this past year, for instance.

      But whether it was a sincere proposal to help or simply a counter offer to void off something worse, it's now seem as something awful by many Republican politicians. (If I recall correctly, it was only included in the 2001 tax changes at the insistence of Democrats.) I believe every one of the clowns running this past cycle proposed to eliminate them; hence the fact that many wanted to raise the burden on those at the bottom. It's certainly part, although definitely not the only part, of the claim that a big chunk of society is mooching off the rest.

      I mention this because, if they are against stuff like this now, just how do they plan to get around the poverty trap problem? (For those of you who don't remember, this is essentially where it becomes better for people financially to stay on government programs rather than earning more money.) Not to turn this into a policy discussion, but the solution, to me at least, seems like we should be working furiously to institute a more broad minimum standard of living--some sort of minimum national income and/or set of benefits that pretty much everyone gets. As a fairly liberal Democrat, I think this would be a great thing (and, if anyone wants, I will explain why over a private message; it's actually kind of Libertarian in nature, believe it or not), but then, I'm a fairly liberal Democrat, not a supposedly conservative Republican. Leaving aside the fact that some seem to believe the public as a whole isn't ready for a change that radical, how is the Republican leadership supposed to sell that to its base?

      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

      by bjssp on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:14:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's all lip service (10+ / 0-)

      All these guys are learning is what kinds of rhetoric are damaging.  They don't really believe they need to do anything differently on policy than what they've always wanted.

      Four years is a long time, there's no way to guess what voters will care about, and candidates in turn will have to respond to, in 2015-16.

      But these guys really are just reacting rhetorically, not substantively, to priorities today of voters they need but aren't getting.  I'm guessing they will flail for 4 years and offer only lip service and window dressing, nothing real.

      And the truth is people of color are becoming hardened against the GOP, as are at least 35% of white voters.  The "white-total" Democratic gap that comes from the difference between what percentage of white voters a Democrat gets compared to the total percentage a Democrat gets, is up to 12...that is, Obama got 39% of white votes compared to 51% of the total, after a 10-point gap in '08.  If the gap grows by even just a point like I suspect in 2016, we're looking at a Democrat needing a measley 37% of the white vote to win the election.

      What will Rubio or Ryan or Walker or whoever else offer to Obama voters and rising new voters in 2016 that is different from before?  They're going to be hard-pressed.

      A lot depends on how intransigent rank-and-file GOP primary voters remain.  If they soften, that gives their candidates room to maneuver.  But if they don't, then Democrats will dominate general elections.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:11:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  the future (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, LordMike, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        Barring a disaster of some sort for Dems, I think the GOP is probably 2 or 3 cycles away from being able to go toe to toe with the Dems as the presidential level.

        One likely scenario is that in 2016 they continue along the path they seem to be headed on and change their rhetoric but not much of the substance. This will probably stop their slide among Hispanic voters in particular and might even get them back up a point or two, but probably not even back to the level McCain got--I agree that a number of voters who were still in play in 2008 are probably out of reach now for a few decades. Anyway they'll lose again in 2016, and then it will sink in that they will need to move back to the center (basically where the midpoint of the party was before about 1994), and in 2020 they will find their Bill Clinton/David Cameron figure and run on a more moderate agenda.

        Another possibility is that even the current lip service generates enough backlash among the Fox/talk radio addicted GOP base to get a real bombthrower nominated in 2016 who then loses big, in 2020 they moderate on tone but not on substance and lose again, and in 2024 they finally moderate on substance. I think this is more likely if 2016 looks unwinnable for them in any case, say if Obama is popular, the economy is strong, and Hillary clears the Dem field.

        The "moderates" might not even regain control of the party if they tone down their rhetoric in 2016 but still lose. The more moderate wing of the GOP is far weaker now than the Dems' moderate wing was after 1988, and their intraparty squabbling will probably be a lot worse than the Dems' was.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:41:00 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Even if it's "just lip service" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        As I think bjssp implied, the Reagan level of lip service was pretty effective, electorally for a time. In the R "ideal" world, they'd get to Reagan '84 levels of the white vote (65%?), which would get them to maybe a 54-45 victory in 2016, enhanced by so-called "Reagan Democrats".

        But as you and Skaje implied/noted, it is -- at best -- a difficult sell to the current R base voter. As suggested by others, I don't see any way such R "moderates" get there by 2016. Of course, 4 years is a long time from now in politics.

        If Rubio pushes further, and the behavior of the R electorate does not change, Rubio could very well be the Jon Huntsman of 2016.

        I hope; therefore, I can live.

        by tietack on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:20:52 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Changing rhetoric is all good and well (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY, askew

      but a few party leaders can't force a change in policy down on their members.  The Republicans in Congress continue to lose the moderates it would depend upon to pass these kinds of policies.  The past election, they said goodbye to Senators Brown and Snowe, and Rep. Dold, Biggert, Bass, Hayworth, LaTourette, and Bono Mack.  Yet they didn't add any other moderates to replace them (and I even hesitate to use the word "moderate" to describe fairly orthodox Republicans like LaTourette and Bono Mack).  Every single freshman Republican in the House and Senate is uniformly conservative.  It's a sad day when I think that out of the lot, Chris Collins may well turn out to be the least right-wing.

      If you want to see it laid out pretty clearly, you only need to check one of the vote ranking websites for the year before each election, and see the cluster of moderates in the middle getting wiped out each time.

      This is only going to continue in the near future at least.

  •  CA Presidential Vote by CD Google Doc is down... (0+ / 0-)

    I take it the team is doing some updating?  

  •  If Kerry takes a cabinet position... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    who would you all want as the Democratic nominee for his seat in Massachusetts?

    Mike Capuano?
    Deval? (unlikely...I'm hoping supreme court)
    Marty Meehan?
    Martha Coakley redux?
    Steve Grossman?
    Alan Khazei?

    •  Gov. Patrick would be ideal... (10+ / 0-)

      But he's serving out his term and heading into the private sector.  I don't know enough about the players otherwise, though do know I want to see Barney Frank be the three month "placeholder" before the Special Election would be held.  

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:42:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Meehan and Markey are the most likely to run.. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, CF of Aus, JBraden, MichaelNY

      ..in the top tier. Meehan is still sitting on a million or two since leaving the House in 2007, and Markey's been eyeing the seat since 2004.

      Of course, my personal favorite choice would be Joe Kennedy III, but he's only just been elected to the House and I'm not a fan of Berging.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:47:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Bob Massie? nt (6+ / 0-)

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

      by WisJohn on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:12:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Honestly, I'd prefer Capuano stay in his seat (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      for life. Mass is already going to get murdered on the seniority front already in the next Congress (moreso if Tierney loses reelection in 2014), and the damage will only be accelerated if Boston loses its congressmen. But since it's clear that Capuano has every intention of running statewide sometime in the near future, it's probably better that he does it ASAP. That way SCD can get in there and start rising up the ranks as quickly as possible before Markey has to retire.

      Pretty sucky situation. Maybe we get lucky and JPKIII gets a spot of Appropriations.

      "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

      by xcave on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:20:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I still don't (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, MichaelNY

      understand the people who suggest that Coakley would be a viable candidate.  We saw how that worked out in 2010, why would it be any different now?

      I know she's supposedly well-liked in the position she's in now, but clearly she's not a good campaigner for a seat that's been held by the Democrats forever.

      •  People become better candidates. Times change. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, terjeanderson, lordpet8, DCCyclone

        Ed Rendell lost a gov primary in 1986 and a mayoral primary in 1987 before winning as mayor in 1991; Arlen Specter lost a mayor's race in 1967 (while serving as DA) and statewide primaries in 1976 (Senate, to Heinz) and 1978 (Gov, to Thornburgh) before finally winning in 1980.

      •  I'm not a huge fan of the idea, but... (7+ / 0-)

        only part of the problem was that Coakley sometimes came off badly on the campaign trail (not always, I saw her do a very good job during some media appearances and speeches). She has the skill set that shows she can improve on the mistakes she made last time.

        The other problem was that she, her campaign, the state party, and the DSCC all got caught napping. They thought that "this is Massachusetts, this is Kennedy's seat, we don't need to worry about it" - until it was too late to get out of the way of the wave that was about it hit them.

        I went to MA late in the campaign to work on GOTV - the campaign was a mess in terms of crappy lists, poor voter outreach, badly coordinated volunteers, and an overall bad ground game.  Their TV advertising campaign was late and weak (and there was very little effective outside spending either).  They were totally unprepared for the campaign they faced.

        If Coakley were to run again, neither she nor the party would be likely to make the same mistakes.

        At the same time, Scott Brown in 2010 was seen as a new, fresh face, riding a wave of enthusiasm at a time of plummeting Democratic popularity/energy. (If he runs again, he won't have that same benefit - his nasty campaign and 2 years in the Senate have significantly tarnished him image.)

        I'd certainly hope that MA Democrats can come up with a candidate who does have Coakley's baggage from the 2010 campaign - but if she does end up being the candidate, I fully believe she would run a significantly better campaign based on the hard lessons she learned.

        My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

        by terjeanderson on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:23:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, but... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

          Why reward her for bungling away a Senate seat that should have been a sure thing? Yeah, we got Sen.-elect Warren out of the deal, but that was an agonizing loss that set the table for the 2010 wave -- and it was 100% avoidable.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:42:00 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think any Democrat would win, but... (5+ / 0-)

            ...frankly I think Coakley remains formidable and, if she runs, she could easily win the nomination, and then would easily win the seat.

            And yeah, she would win a rematch with Brown, comfortably so.  She won's sleepwalk again, no Democrat will, after what happened in 2010 everyone will pound on the GOP nominee, whether Brown or someone else, from Day One.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:17:40 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't feel like putting that much faith in her (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ehstronghold, MichaelNY

              Seriously, talking about running Atty. Gen. Coakley again is like encouraging Kathleen Kennedy Townsend to get back into Maryland politics. But worse.

              Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

              by SaoMagnifico on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:10:41 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Not comparable at all (6+ / 0-)

                Townsend had never been elected to anything in her life.  And before she ran for Governor, before she was Glendening's handpicked running mate (Maryland L.G. is not elected in own right), she had crashed and burned in a high-profile (because she was a Kennedy) run for Congress.

                Coakley is a repeat statewide winner who ran one really bad campaign and thus suffered a nationally conspicuous loss.

                Showing you can win elections is a big difference.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:44:20 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  not really (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jncca, MichaelNY

                  Elaine Marshall in NC-Sen 2010 was a statewide winner who couldn't fundraise and ended up doing no better than Generic D against Richard Burr. hell, Richard Mourdock won statewide office in Indiana. MA-Sen is the only competitive race Coakley has run for, and she blew it. why on earth we should be rewarding her with another go when we have plenty of other options is just baffling to me.

                  Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:35:23 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  There's no "we" in this (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, terjeanderson

                    This all comes down to Coakley deciding to run and then winning the primary.  If she does that, the good Democrats of Massachusetts will have spoken, and most likely they did so clear-eyed as I'm guessing for her to win another Senate primary would require running a much better campaign that DKEers by and large would acknowledge as such.  But if she's the same Coakley who stunk it up vs. Brown last time, then she probably can't get through the primary a second time.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:28:13 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  idk about that (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      James Allen, MichaelNY

                      it's IMHO a fallacy in general to equate (or even correlate) primary electability with general electability. People like Creigh Deeds and of course Coakley herself (in 2009/2010) are proof of that. The one concrete thing I could point to that is arguably a much greater boost in the primary than the general is name rec, and Coakley has that. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if, supposing she did run, she won the primary but then sucked again. Far stranger things have happened in politics.

                      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                      by sapelcovits on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:42:48 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I don't buy that she's a bad campaigner (3+ / 0-)

                        I think she's a perfectly decent candidate who ran one horrible campaign, not a chroncially bad candidate.  It was classic tortoise vs. hare, she was way out in front and took a nap and when she woke up, it was too late.  Everything that looked so ugly after that was the result of 11th-hour panic, I don't think reflective of her normal political skills.

                        Again, by all accounts she ran a good reelection campaign this year.  So she's capable.

                        I'm actually very confident she would beat Brown by double-digits in a rematch.

                        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:07:10 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  This argument (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          Chachy, MichaelNY

                          Actually cedes alot to your opposition.

                          If Coakley was such a good candidate that just happened to have a single bad campaign and the campaign was really only bad after she woke up and realized she had a race on her hands...

                          ...

                          ...

                          ...

                          Doesn't that imply hugely that Brown is an exceptionally strong Republican to run in Massachusetts?

                          Which would entirely negate your entire position that Brown sucks.

                          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                          by wwmiv on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:30:23 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  not necessarily (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            terjeanderson

                            because of how bad that period was for Democrats in general.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:36:47 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  And... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            Is this why she was able to win reelection in 2010 perfectly fine?

                            I think this, again, speaks to Brown's special ability.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:17:39 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  She has a lame, very conservative opponent (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            sapelcovits, MichaelNY

                            who didn't have any money and was not supported by the state party. They put all their eggs in the Baker/Connaughton/Polito baskets.

                            28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

                            by bumiputera on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:29:43 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  However (0+ / 0-)

                            It was 2010 and she had just lost to Brown. Although this may sound snarky, I don't think this speaks anything at all to her strength as a candidate. She still lost to Brown.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:32:41 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  And (0+ / 0-)

                            Even if it did speak to her strength, that simply implies that Brown is even stronger.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:33:11 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Brown WAS a strong Republican (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            He is definitely heads and shoulders above most other MA Republicans in terms of potential appeal.

                            But it is important not to forget that the Scott Brown of February 2010 has been replaced in the public mind by the Scott Brown of November 2012. He simply isn't as strong as he once was.

                            Back then he was an exciting new face, a white knight promising to be an energetic moderate voice who would go to DC and battle the gridlock and partisan games. He rode a wave of conservative energy in a low turn out general election where the Democratic base was depressed and unexcited.

                            But MA voters got to see him in action for almost 3 years - saw him as a partisan hack, saw him voting on things like the Blunt amendment, saw his alignment with McConnell's majority, saw his self-aggrandizing boasts of meeting with kings. And they saw his ugly, petty, racist campaign against Elizabeth Warren. And they didn't like what they saw.

                            Scott Brown is no longer the fresh figure he was during the special election - and after his defeat in November he is damaged goods.

                            His name ID, his ability to raise money and his campaign infrastructure mean he is still a stronger Republican than any other potential MA statewide candidate. But he is no longer the dragon-slayer he was in February 2010.

                            If you want to analyze Scott Brown's strength as a candidate (even against Coakley), you have to look at where he stands today, not simply what his public standing was when he upset Coakley almost 3 years ago.  

                            My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

                            by terjeanderson on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 02:18:35 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  No, not at all (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            NMLib

                            The main reason Brown run wasn't about him or Coakley, it was because it was an anti-Democratic wave year, and that race was the canary in the coal mine.  A lot of usually reliable Democratic voters were scared of Democratic governance at that time.  And that's the biggest reason Brown won.  That Coakley ran a bad campaign was secondary, but still important......she would've won by 5 instead of lost by 5 had she campaigned hard the whole way, from early/mid-December.  Brown's own popularity was the least important factor, he just needed to be a likeable guy and run a competent campaign himself to take advantage of the other factors.

                            This isn't complicated:  Brown just lost, by high single-digits which is a pretty big margin for an incumbent, to a novice candidate, which all forces the conclusion that he's not that popular after all.

                            You and some others seem still in awe that Brown won in the first place, and discount that he just got his ass kicked as an incumbent.  That view has it backwards, the reality is Brown losing last month is dispositive of what people think of him today and going forward.

                            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 05:37:44 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  she was re-elected in 2010, not this year (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          and can you please provide several sources to back up your claim that she ran a good campaign? cruising over a nobody does not automatically mean the campaign she ran was good.

                          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                          by sapelcovits on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:11:38 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

              •  yeah I can see that (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Adam B, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

                comebacks aren't for everyone

                For every Jeanne Shaheen there's a Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.

                In 1977, 31 percent of Californians supported same-sex marriag. marriage. That grew to 49 percent in 2009. In 1975, 51 percent of Californians supported abortion rights, support swelled to 70 percent in 2006, Republican opposition stayed the same.

                by lordpet8 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:56:35 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  It wouldn't be "rewarding her" (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, itskevin, MichaelNY

            If she runs, she would have to fight to demonstrate to Democrats and voters at large that she deserves it ... she would start with the 2010 albatross weighing heavily around her neck, and she will have to work very hard to remove it.  No one is advocating rolling over and anointing her as the nominee as a reward for losing the last time.

            I'd prefer another nominee - but Coakley would be a strong Senator, and I highly doubt that a future campaign would resemble 2010 in any way.

            My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

            by terjeanderson on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:49:54 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  She running for Gov tho (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, terjeanderson

          Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

          by BKGyptian89 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:34:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  you make it almost sound like she lost both races (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, JBraden, SLDemocrat

        as bad as the special election turned out for her, she still did win reelection to AG later that year. If she was as washed out as you say she was MA voters probably wouldn't have given her another term.

        But as Adam says people recover. Take Jack Conway who lost badly to Rand Paul. But her recovered from the "aqua buddha" flap and was relected to AG in Kentucky.

        Do I think she'll run again for the senate? Most likely not

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:57:34 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  AG (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, lordpet8

          she had token opposition that year. if you are arguing that her re-election is proof that she has been rehabilitated, that only works if whoever runs for Senate runs a non-campaign. and yes, if Coakley runs against a nobody who runs a non-campaign, she will win for the Senate. but we shouldn't be banking on that.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:36:54 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  10 years ago (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AUBoy2007, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        Linda Lingle defeated Mazie Hirono by 52-47 for the Hawaii governor seat.  This followed a brutal primary in which Hirono held off Ed Case by a single percent.

        This election, Hirono beat Case 57-40 and then went on to beat Lingle 63-37.

        Of course, you can argue 10 years is not the same as 2 years, but the point is candidates can get much better in future races.  Plenty of 2010 losers came back to win this year, although you could chalk it up to the changing political climate.  Perhaps that's all Coakley would need though.

    •  My shortlist (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, JBraden, MichaelNY, askew

      1. Gov. Deval Patrick (unlikely).
      2. Sonia Chang-Diaz.
      3. Ayanna Pressley.
      4. Mayor Setti Warren.

      I was unimpressed with Rep. Capuano's halfhearted special election primary campaign; Marty Meehan has already said he won't quit his job, and at this point, I'm frankly tired of his Hamlet act; Atty. Gen. Coakley is seriously never going to live down the weak-ass campaign she ran against now-Sen. Scott Brown; Treasurer Grossman has no appeal to me at all, and he's already 66 years old; Alan Khazei is seriously verging on "perennial candidate" status at this point. Others, like Reps. Ed Markey and Stephen Lynch, are similarly unappealing; Markey is a good congressman, but Massachusetts needs his House seniority, and Lynch is a terrible congressman, and he doesn't deserve a promotion.

      Patrick is the obvious best choice. He's the popular governor, would add diversity to the Senate, and gets on well with both President Obama and Sen.-elect Warren.

      Chang-Diaz is a rising star who missed out on an obvious House opportunity by the way redistricting shook out, and I think she'd be a good U.S. senator. Also would add diversity to the chamber.

      Pressley is a protege of Sen. Kerry, she's young, she's great on the issues, and she would add to the Senate's diversity. If she joins the Senate, I think we'll be talking about her for a national ticket 10-20 years down the road.

      Mayor Warren wasn't much of a juggernaut in his abortive primary campaign last year, but I think he probably made some friends by so tactfully dropping out and getting behind the other Warren, rather than trying to drag things out. He's young, he has a great profile, he's black, he's telegenic, and I think he would be a solid senator. The problem, as I've noted, is that mayor of a small to midsize city generally isn't a good stepping stone to the Senate; he might want to run for House first if he wants to serve in Congress.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:40:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Setti Warren (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        what was the last time both senators from a state had the same last name? That could get confusing.

      •  Sonia Chang Diaz, Ayanna Pressley and Setti Warren (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        all may need some other experience if they ever want to run for Senate. First, I think Ayanna Pressley is more interested in becoming Mayor of Boston than running in a potentially risky Senate race. Moreover, If Michael Capuano ran (and won) his house seat would be left open and Sonia Chang-Diaz/Ayanna Pressley would be ideal replacements. I really don't think a campaign by either a Boston City Councilor or Boston State Senator would be a strong one. The people in Newton have a receding respect for Setti Warren. Massachusetts democrats just have a weak bench all around it seems.

        •  The person most interested in succeeding Capuano (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          is the who holds Capuano's prior job, Mayor of Somerville Joe Curtatone. Boston City Councillor Ross is also very interested.

          But agreed that statewide voters wouldn't be thrilled by a Boston City Councilmember.

          28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

          by bumiputera on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:40:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  In a minority-majority seat, who do you (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            think would win the primary?

            20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:43:28 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It really depends on who's running (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sapelcovits, MichaelNY

              The white voters here are quite Democratic, and will form the majority of the primary electorate (the black population is probably more heavily immigrant here than in many other districts, with a significant Haitian and other Carribean population which may not all have citizenship). That said, Pressley definitely is well-liked across Boston and will not be an "ethnic" candidate at all. Nor will Chang-Diaz.

              28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

              by bumiputera on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:16:49 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  Setti Warren lost friends, actually (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, MichaelNY

        at least at home. he got elected in 2009 and almost immediately started running for Senate. that pissed a lot of people off in Newton. As far as I'm concerned, unless he can prove that he's smoothed things over at home in this year's election, he's damaged goods.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:38:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  US Attorney Carmen Ortiz? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      She has been getting a lot of local press recently as a successor to Patrick as Governor. I personally think she is better than the likely alternatives... Rep. Lynch, Attorney General Coakley, etc. Gov. Patrick would be the ideal candidate, except Tim Murray would then be Governor.

    •  None that you mentioned. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Markey would be the best bet and he is more than interested. He has already pulled together a campaign team.

  •  Why we need filibuster reform - Federal Judges (12+ / 0-)
    Blocking nominees to the federal bench has increased in recent years, according to the Congressional Research Service.
    % of "uncontroversial" Circuit Court nominees waiting more than 200 days for confirmation:
    5.1%   Reagan
    7.3%   Bush I
    22.2% Clinton
    35.7% Bush II
    63.6% Obama

    http://blog.amjudges.org/...
    http://www.fas.org/...

    Obama has 19 nominees currently waiting 200+ days for Senate confirmation.

    http://www.uscourts.gov/...

    The ever-increasing delay in judicial confirmations creates a burden on the federal court system, causing heavier case loads and delays to justice.

    It is long past time for Obama's nominees to receive up or down votes by the Senate.

    Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

    by bear83 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:52:17 AM PST

    •  agreed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'm betting the R's were hoping that that Romney would have won so they wouldn't have had to fill those seats.

      Hoping we fill some of those seats now that we have the exec for another 4 years

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:01:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sure - that was the plan behind the delay (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, MichaelNY, askew

        leave a bunch of open seats for RMoney to fill.

        But we are a month past the election, and the Senate has confirmed exactly ONE judicial nominee. ONE - while 19 others have waitied 200+ days for a vote.

        It's like they are just begging Harry Reid to reform Senate rules.

        Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

        by bear83 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:52:19 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Another... (9+ / 0-)

    Summary of where we are on the ground (I currently have data from 189 congressional districts)

    1.  FL-18 appears to be the most right-wing pickup we made this year, with a PVI of R+4 for 2008 alone (47.9% Obama).

    2.  It appears we've only picked up three seats carried by Romney - FL-18, TX-23, and AZ-01.  

    3.  In contrast, there's a cluster of 16 seats where Obama got between 50.7% and 55.5% of the two-party vote which is very interesting.  Going into the election, we only held four of these seats.  Two re-elected Democratic-incumbents (MN-01, ME-02), and two were held despite being open seats (IL-12, CT-05).  Three Republican incumbents survived (FL-13, IA-03, and FL-27).  The remaining nine seats, some of which were new with reappropriation, and others of which had Republican incumbents, were all pickups.  

    As I've said in the past, this really drives home to me this was an "aligning" election.  People don't split tickets much anymore.  Republicans in very narrowly Obama districts generally couldn't convince even the few percent they needed to swing.  

    There's good and bad in this.  The good is we've pretty much reached our floor.  We only have five "Demosaur" seats left in deep red territory, and not all of them are going to lose/retire at once.  And we seem to be favored now in seats all the way up to R+1 (e.g., seats Obama cleared a bit over 50% of the vote in 2012).  

    The bad is there are probably precious few Republican seats of less than R+1.  There's the three I noted above, plus CA-31.  CO-06 probably is, as is PA-08, NJ-02, NY-19, and possibly a handful of others.  

    It won't get us to a majority, however.  It seems we can compete and win in up to R+3, but this means we need exceptionally bad incumbents, or exceptionally great candidates.  Which still means we're disfavored.  

    The bottom line is we need to wait for demographic transition to turn a bunch of R+6 to R+4 seats to R+2 to EVEN seats.  I feel confident some of them will be drifting the right way.  

    •  Means we probably will still have our (7+ / 0-)

      Government Accountability Borad (GAB). The magic number is two, and we got one for sure. I can't see Dale Schultz going along with this cockamamie idea.

      There is a long-term problem, though. The new balance is 18R, 15D. Say both Schultz and Ellis retire in 2014, and are replaced with Democrats, but John Lehman is replaced by a Republican. Dems would still have a one seat deficit. We would either need to pick up another Senate seat somewhere (SD-1 perhaps), or we would need to find another moderate Republican to go along with us on stuff like this.

      Oh Jim Holperin, I wish you could have stayed for another term.

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

      by WisJohn on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:22:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  SD-23 and SD-29 may also be pickup opportunities (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...but we can't run liberal ideologues in either of those districts. WI Dems should recruit center-left candidates for SD-1, SD-23, and SD-29.

        It would absolutely shock me if Schultz (who might be the target of a recall attempt if he were to go along with Big Fitz's proposal to end the GAB as we know it) were to go along with this.

        Since 2004, the area of Wisconsin that has trended the bluest has been an area along the Wisconsin River downstream of Wisconsin Dells. SD-17, Schultz's district, is right in the middle of that region of Wisconsin.

        Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:06:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I really can't see 23 and 29 being competitive (0+ / 0-)

          barring a wave or a scandal. 23 moved rightward with the removal of Eau Claire, the only really Democratic area that was in old 23. Petrowski is an institution in 29, and I can't see him being moved, plus the district got redder, and the area is trending away from us.

          The Republicans drew a pretty solid map for themselves.

          Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

          by WisJohn on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:06:47 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  25 and 31 appear to be targets for GOP... (0+ / 0-)

            ...although 31 would probably require Vinehout to either retire, get primaried, or run for higher office for Republicans to make a serious play for that district. 25, much like 29, appears to be trending away from us, but, unlike 29, 25 is still Dem-leaning, and Jauch seems to be an entrenched incumbent.

            21 is all but certain to flip back to GOP control in 2014.

            Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

            by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:46:41 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Even if both Vinehout and Jauch retire (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              WisJohn, DownstateDemocrat, BeloitDem

              I do not worry.  For the 25th, the Superior counties have been more resilient than the counties to the south. Douglas County itself provides solid vote margins.  Barrett won this district so it is pretty Dem.  Anyways all 3 of the Assembly seats are Dem and of them, Nick Milroy would be a solid candidate.  It is somewhat similar with the 31st.  With all of Eau Claire, it is now a solid seat and Chris Danou would more than take care of the seat of Vinehout retires.

              Social Democrat, WI-05

              by glame on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:07:58 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  I think SD1 is the one we need (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DownstateDemocrat, WisJohn, ArkDem14

        because Lasee is probably a bit more vulnerable than Moulton or Petrowski due to his foot-in-mouth tendencies.

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

        by fearlessfred14 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:38:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Ellis is somewhat moderate (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, WisJohn, MichaelNY

      although he's no Dale Schultz. Like many ultra-senior Wisconsin politicians, he's too much of an institution in his district to be vulnerable to a primaried, and certainly not over keeping the GAB non-partisan.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:36:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA-GOV (12+ / 0-)

    It's Pennsylvania Society week, so the gossip is flying, but this is kinda huge: Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce Castor is considering primarying Tom Corbett:

    “I am considering the possibility of becoming a candidate for Governor,” Castor said. “I believe that Governor Corbett is vulnerable.”

    For months, murmurs of a possible primary challenge have circulated among Republican insiders. Castor is the first person to say he’s pondering a run and he’s among the top tier of potential candidates.

    “It looks to me like Governor Corbett has not fulfilled the promise he came into office with,” Castor said. “That could change and everything could end up being terrific a year from now. But if it’s not I want to be in a position where I haven’t sat on my hands.”

  •  Maybe this has been stated in the digest, or (7+ / 0-)

    yesterday night in the Live Blog, but we can all stop looking under rocks, as Jan Brewer has been found. She is in Afghanistan visiting troops.

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

    by WisJohn on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:26:50 AM PST

  •  Nevada Voter ID: holy burden-shift, Batman! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueDem, nextstep, MBishop1, MichaelNY

    From a Dem SecState:

    Spurred by many Nevadans complaining during this year's contentious elections that some people were voting illegally, Secretary of State Ross Miller said Tuesday he will sponsor a bill at the Legislature to require voter photo IDs.

    Under his proposal, which lawmakers will consider in 2013, the photos on residents' driver's licenses would be placed electronically with their voter registration records and in the poll books at election locations. People without any identification, but who are registered, would be required to have their pictures taken by poll workers and sign an affidavit that they are the person they represent the first time they vote.

    Miller said Minnesota estimated it would cost $15 million to $20 million to implement a similar program, but legislators rejected the bill. Minnesota has twice the population of Nevada.

    •  Ah yes, "some say" that some unnamed, shadowy (7+ / 0-)

      figures voted illegally. Nobody ever says who it was, of course. I'm guessing they had nice tans, talked kinda funny, and the cranky senior citizen sizing them up knew so much about them they couldn't peg the voter's ages within 5 years.

      (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

      by TrueBlueDem on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:11:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  So Ross Miller (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, JBraden, MichaelNY

      Doesn't aspire to run for anything ever again as a Democract?

      •  Or ... (10+ / 0-)

        ... he sees this as a way to get funding to modernize everything, and believes that this method won't result in disenfranchisement.

      •  I don't know if I'd go that far. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, DCPatriot, ArkDem14

        I happen to think there's nothing really outrageous about asking for ID when voting. For Republicans, it's a solution in search of a problem and/or a means to trim our list of potential voters, but the public doesn't focus on that. Instead, they seem to think there's nothing wrong with asking for ID, even if there are potential draw backs. (I happen to think it's because most people who aren't going to be affected by this can't imagine being in a situation where there's no easy way to get it.) And the Republicans, whether because they are being dishonest assholes or because they believe their own bullshit, aren't likely to let up with it, no matter how often it's proven to be nonsense.

        So what's the solution? In states where we run things, it's easy enough to let it slide, but we don't control things in a lot of critical states and might not for some time. Some might think it kind of pointless to try to formulate a counter proposal if we can't get a say in the process, but I disagree. I believe we should have alternatives ready to discuss. I believe voter ID, where we make it really easy to get and, in the case of someone not having it, have a solution like the one Miller suggested in place, along with making voting easier in general, could be part of a good government package. We could place it in the same category as non-partisan redistricting and similar stuff.

        To be clear, I know this sort of stuff isn't a problem now and that if we don't do this, voter fraud will to not be a problem in the future. But I suspect we are on the end of  losing battle and that we should try to find a solution that puts the issue behind us. It'd even have side benefits, given those who seem to lack identification, which seems  to be a big part of being in a normal, everyday society, a chance to get it.

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:34:30 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  This doesn't seem that bad at all (6+ / 0-)

      Unlike the other voter ID legislation where "no ID = no vote" it looks like people are still able to cast their ballot even if they lack photo identification as long as they sign a sworn affidavit and get their photo taken.

      The obvious downside I see is that it will more than likely lead to long lines and throw in "observers" like "True The Vote" and it could be a recipe for chaos.

      Overall though compared to other voter ID bills which have been little more than disguised voter suppression. So everybody please calm down.

    •  I've posted about this before (6+ / 0-)

      It's not as bad as it sounds, since nobody would actually be turned away for not having a photo ID, but it's still a solution to a fake problem and just makes the process more complicated. I'd be fine trading Miller's proposal to get Sandoval to sign same day registration, but not for nothing.

  •  Discharge petition in NY state senate? (0+ / 0-)

    Does anyone know if there is any thing similar to a discharge petition in the New York state senate where if a majority of the chamber signs it, the bill is brought to the floor regardless of what the party leadership does? If so, Senate Democrats should use that to force the IDC to give progressive legislation an up-or down vote.

    If not, the Assembly needs to pass almost every item on the progressive agenda, and send it to the Senate. Then the Democratic senators should draft a statement of support of the bill and get everyone to sign it. Any "Democrat" or moderate Republican who doesn't sign it needs to be asked about their position. This way they can't hide behind their majority

    For each progressive item that fails, it needs to be crystal clear that it was undemocratically vetoed by a power-hungry coalition. If the New York Democrats aren't aggressive enough, the failure will be chalked up to general dysfunction. This is an enormous betrayal by the IDC and New Yorkers need to be reminded of it for every single bill.

    •  3, now 4, men in a room (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      terjeanderson, gabjoh, MichaelNY

      Nothing comes to a vote in NY without all the leaders agreeing. The Assembly Democrats don't care about Senate Democrats. They traded safer Democratic seats in the Assembly for a Republican gerrymander of the Senate. Clearly they don't care one bit about stuff like this.

      M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

      by slacks on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:13:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  majorities in Oregon (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sulthernao, lordpet8, ArkDem14

    favor changing our property tax limitations schemes passed by right-wing activists by ballot measures in the 90s.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:11:00 AM PST

  •  Statement from Ruben Diaz Sr on IDC / Repubs (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje, KingofSpades

    Colin didn't put a link to it so just scroll down.  Well worth a read.

    http://politicker.com/...

    I find myself agreeing with the general thrust of what he is saying despite the twisted logic in lauding a group of self-interested crooks, felons, and homophobes.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:11:49 AM PST

    •  Diaz gets it almost right (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      The IDC has not vindicated the Four Amigos.  Instead they have simply become the next version of the Four Amigos.  The IDC is claiming that through their partnership with the GOP they can more effectively get progressive legislation passed, and that's bullshit.  Any progressive legislation will get passed on the backs of Democratic votes.  The IDC is partnering with the GOP because they get to chair committees that they wouldn't under Democratic control.  That is the ONLY reason.

  •  Obama narrowly won California's AD-36 (11+ / 0-)

    Obama 68654 (47.99), Romney 68221 (47.69). Out of the two way vote, that's 50.16 to 49.84. Steve Fox got 50.05% to Ron Smith 49.95%, which means the Assembly race pretty much mirrored the presidential race.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:30:32 AM PST

  •  Jewish Liberals to Neoconservatives (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I'm in the process of reading this article on Diane Ravitch, the education reformer and wife of former MTA chief and Lt. Governor of New York Richard Ravitch. One paragraph describes how, in 1968, when the NYC Board of Education gave some districts local control, one prominently black district in the Ocean Hill-Brownsville section of Brooklyn dismissed all of the teachers, many of whom were Jewish. This lead to protests and then a bunch of strikes by the United Federation of Teachers that closed many of the city's schools over a three-month period, which in turn led to increasingly bitter relations between black and Jewish communities. One result, the article says, was that some prominent Jewish liberals became neoconservatives.

    It doesn't go into this any further, since as the article notes Ravitch wasn't part of the strike, but I didn't know any of this before. It's just one part of what is surely a very complicated history, but I found it interesting and figured I'd share it with everyone here.

    I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

    by bjssp on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:17:08 AM PST

    •  Very few (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      terjeanderson, bjssp, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      The "counterculture," and the October 1973 mideast war had more of an effect on those small minority of Jewish liberals (and leftists like David Horowitz) who became neo-conservatives.

      Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

      by Paleo on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:25:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, I had always assumed it was mostly about (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        that stuff. I just didn't know that this was a part of it, however much of a part it actually was.

        Also, if you can, read the article on Ravitch. It's very interesting.

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:31:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  most of the original neocons were (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, MichaelNY

      Jewish or Catholic.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:48:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Many of those neo-conservatives.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, MichaelNY

      ....like Horowitz were WAY out in left-field.  So far out that it wasn't all that much of a stretch to circle right to way out in right-field.

      However that is not to dismiss those issues as being real.  And that there are not Jewish voters who will punish Democrats who they feel are not representing their interests.  A prime example being 1980 when many Jews regarded Jimmy Carter as being anti-Israel.  Though that election contains within itself it's own counterargument with a large number of votes going to John Anderson rather than Ronald Reagan.

      But within the context of that article I think it would be fair to say identity politics did wake up some Jews who were previously reflexively liberal that they needed to more closely examine their own beliefs and it moved many towards the center.  As we've seen in years and years of voting trends that does not mean mean they necessarily become conservatives.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:05:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Cuomo's Op-Ed about the coalition (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, lordpet8, dc1000, MichaelNY

    He basically deflected all blame and says the only important thing is getting his agenda passed.

    Specifically, the “litmus test” for my support starts with support of
    the following ten issues:
    1.   The property tax cap that has finally imposed fiscal discipline
    on local governments and provided relief to taxpayers
    2.   Campaign finance reform
    3.   Increasing the minimum wage
    4.   Reform of New York City’s “stop and frisk” policy
    5.   Environmental protection and initiatives that address our
    changing climate
    6.   The education and Medicaid budget rate formulas that provided
    fiscal predictability and sustainability
    7.   The tax cuts that brought taxes on the middle class tax to the
    lowest rates in 58 years
    8.   Education reforms – like teacher evaluations – that bring more
    accountability to our schools and continued improvement to our SUNY
    system
    9.   Protecting a woman’s right to choose
    10.   Limited and highly regulated casinos introduced as economic
    development generators
    http://blog.timesunion.com/...

    It is easy to see how the coalition can swap votes on some of these issues, plus a handful of others that weren't mention (marijuana reform, legislative pay raise, fracking).

    If Cuomo passes this agenda, does it alleviate some of the criticism? I think it does.

    M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

    by slacks on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:30:13 AM PST

    •  not from me (8+ / 0-)

      If he runs for president and gets elected, will he endorse Republicans running for the US House or Senate?  The guy simply cannot be trusted.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:49:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The "endorsing Republicans" was one thing (6+ / 0-)

        Gov. Kitzhaber endorsed a few Republicans as well. I didn't agree with that, but it was the governor's prerogative to reward certain Republicans who cooperated with him by saying he'd like to continue working with them. If I were governor, I probably wouldn't have, but so it goes.

        What Gov. Cuomo did was not only endorse his favorite Republicans, but he worked behind the scenes in Albany to keep Republicans in the majority (by lobbying Democratic waverers to join with Skelos) even after New Yorkers voted them out of it -- despite one of the country's most blatant legislative gerrymanders designed to keep them in power.

        To me, Cuomo sacrificed his obligation to represent the will of the people on the altar of his own political ambitions. And to me, that's just disgraceful.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:54:53 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Kitz donated to them, (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack, MichaelNY

          I don't think he formally endorsed them, and they weren't in serious races anyway.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:12:25 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  ... (0+ / 0-)

          Did I miss the article where it was revealed he did this? I must have.

          I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

          by bjssp on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:05:41 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  There have been quite a few... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, MichaelNY

            Pointing that way. Klein says he talked to Gov. Cuomo for guidance in making his decision; Cuomo conspicuously refused to advocate that Democrats form the majority; there's just no way to see this, unless you're playing extreme devil's advocate, as a scenario Cuomo didn't at the very least encourage.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:13:45 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  well I doubt he wants to be Prez anyways (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bfen, MichaelNY

          If he can wheel and deal everthing he wants for his agenda, I don't he will care in the end.

          "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

          by lordpet8 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:22:37 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Couldn't agree more. (7+ / 0-)

        Senator Gillibrand is the New Yorker at the moment I'd support for higher office.

      •  I think youre being dramatic (0+ / 0-)

        saying he'll endorse GOP'ers in the House and Senate. Its one thing when it's a state legislature . but I don't think he's that foolish and ridiculous.

        Look he doesn't like to get dirty and seem too political. He doesn't enjoy the process like Bubba did. To a large extent Obama has been like that during his Presidency. Now when he's campaign all of a sudden he's a progressive firebrand. But we've seen how Obama has govern. The thing has been very progressive on is the SCOTUS and women's health.

        So let's not kid our selves here! Im going to vote for whoever is the Democrat is in 2016. I do wish Cuomo will be more left, but he just cares about himself and getting his agenda pass.

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:19:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  appropriately dramatic (7+ / 0-)

          as one of 30-35 million Democratic primary voters, I will exercise my little bit of power to try to prevent him from becoming the party's nominee, if he pursues it.  I'm at the point where I have become unmovable on that point.  He's a poor Democrat, unworthy of being our leader.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:25:06 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Im not arguing with you (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            you're entitled to feel the way you feel. My gutt feeling tells me he aint gonna be the Dem nominee in '16.

            Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

            by BKGyptian89 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:33:15 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  doesn't this all really depend on what (0+ / 0-)

            he does in 2014?

            Will he get a primary challenge?

            "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

            by lordpet8 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:24:59 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  does what depend on that? (0+ / 0-)

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:27:03 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Him possibly running for president in 2016 (0+ / 0-)

                In 1977, 31 percent of Californians supported same-sex marriage. That grew to 49 percent in 2009. In 1975, 51 percent of Californians supported abortion rights, support swelled to 70 percent in 2006, All while Republican opposition stayed the same.

                by lordpet8 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:56:10 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  President Obama (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, James Allen

          has always been clear in supporting Democratic candidates for the House and Senate. There is no similarity between his behavior and Cuomo's.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:03:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  He deliberately engineered... (7+ / 0-)

      A continuing Republican Senate majority over the will of the voters.

      So no, this doesn't really alleviate any of my criticism of him. It's a fine agenda, but does he really think Republicans are likelier to play ball on passing it than Democrats would be -- or does he just think he'll look more heroic "fighting the good fight" on progressive issues on which Dean Skelos won't budge while "forging bipartisan consensus" on centrist and center-right issues Skelos can't believe his luck in having an ostensibly Democratic governor that supports.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:50:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  His agenda on taxes is pretty questionable. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY
        •  Property or income? (0+ / 0-)

          I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

          by bjssp on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:58:32 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  both. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            In general, he's shown a willingness to cut education to lower taxes, which is more or less the antithesis of what makes me a Democrat. Some of my first political involvement was with school funding initiatives.

            •  Education spending has gone up (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              after being cut when he first took office, and it seems not insanely difficult to override the property tax cap, given that a good chunk of local governments and/or school districts have done so.

              Given how high New York's taxes are (and I am not saying that as a bad thing), it'll be quite interesting to see how it pans out.

              I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

              by bjssp on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:33:15 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  You say he (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000

        eliberately engineered the Republican majority over the will of the voters...I'm curious, do you think it's because he really wanted this or because he felt it would help him down the line?

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:59:33 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Both (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, jncca, BKGyptian89, MichaelNY

          I think he's personally conservative on economic issues, making him a better ideological fit with Senate Republicans in New York, and I think he believes being a "bipartisan" governor with a few limelight moments of playing progressive hero-against-the-odds will make for good newsreel footage heading into his 2016 run for president.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:18:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  He starting the ground work for the subprime (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BeloitDem

            mortgages when he was the HUT secretary under Clinton who did away with Glass–Steagall. I don't know why people act all upset when they see how Cuomo has been Governor. He was never as hard on wall Street like has predecessor was when he was AG.

            I agree with you he conservative on economic issue, and that's why he aint complaining that the damn GOP are in somewhat controll of the state senate. In whatever powersharing deal they have with those rogue Dems.

            On social issues he's more liberal on. That's Albany for you. It's everyman man for themselves. Fuck party is their atitude for the NYDEMS in the legislature unfortunately.

            I which Cuomo was more like his father,but most importantly I wish that Spitzer was still Governor and never got caught with his pants down. Because he would had never stood for this shit with senate Dems going rogue. If he was still Gov. I believe the NYGOP would be dead in Albany, and be offically extinct.

            Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

            by BKGyptian89 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:58:34 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Spitzer was not a good governor (0+ / 0-)

              Even before he was discovered to be a hypocrite and forced to resign, he had been overly confrontational with the Senate Majority Leader and illegally sent state troopers to try to entrap him. Leader Bruno was in fact a corrupt guy and was eventually convicted, but doing a private investigation using state troopers was illegal and improper. And while he was completely right in condemning the state legislature as thoroughly corrupt, to get anything done as Governor, you have to get stuff passed by that legislature.

              I was proud to vote for Spitzer for Governor. But to this day, I believe that he wouldn't have been forced to resign for hypocrisy if he had been a good governor to that point.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:08:32 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  I don't think Cuomo is conservative on economic (0+ / 0-)

            issues, but more of a moderate. I guess you could say that I am keeping at open mind because (a) he took control when things were far worse than they are now and (b) New York is already a high tax, high spending state, which means that unlike other states, there might be more to cut without huge stresses. He's far from my first choice for 2016, but I'd feel better if he doesn't end up as the person everyone here says he is.

            I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

            by bjssp on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:57:03 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  If you are against making your tax structure (0+ / 0-)

              more progressive in order to spend money on education, especially in New York City, which has been deliberately and grossly cheated of education funding by the Republicans in the Senate, you are not an economic "moderate"; you are a George Pataki Republican in Democrat's clothing. Remember that Pataki was also a social liberal, probably with a better environmental record than Andrew Cuomo.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 02:51:50 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  The tax structure was made more progressive, (0+ / 0-)

                at least in part. Don't you remember that taxe were cut for most New Yorkers but raised on incomes over $1 and $2 million for singles and couples per year?

                As for education spending, that's entirely different beast, and the problems predate him by at least a decade, if not longer.

                I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

                by bjssp on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:05:40 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  He engineered nothing (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, dc1000, BKGyptian89

        He just didn't stop it. This is all on Klein.

        Cuomo is not dumb. He has a great sense of popular opinion and how to use that to his advantage.

        I do sincerely think he has a better shot of getting this agenda done with the coalition. It means Republicans have to at least be accountable. If it was only a 1 vote Democratic majority, we would never get anything done. It takes 1 crazy senator (like Diaz) to act up. Then you are just sitting around doing nothing.

        Also this is a majority that will only last until 2014. I can't imagine Terry Gipson surviving next election, unless he joins the IDC. Now you are looking at a Republican controlled Senate, and they would not be willing to play ball with Cuomo anymore if he supported complete Democratic control.

        M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

        by slacks on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:03:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  To an extent it does (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, LordMike, bumiputera, MichaelNY

      It certainly carves out a niche for him in the Democratic primary electorate, namely the suburban moderate niche. However, partisan Democrats will see him as unreliable due to the whole State Senate thing, which isn't really all that hard to use as an attack line. He'd be quite vulnerable against a more partisan suburban-type Democrat like O'Malley. Schweitzer or another blue-collar Democrat would give him a real fight.

      Here in Wisconsin, Cuomo would have a fairly interesting fight against Schweitzer, which would break down about like this:

      1) Rural areas will break heavily for Schweitzer if he has any chance of victory. Cuomo's fracking stance would ensure that nobody in the Driftless Area would see him as pro-environment, and Schweitzer is a much better fit in any case.

      2) Cuomo will win the Fox Valley if the contest is at all close. His job will be to rack up large margins by promising investments in new environmentally friendly industries.

      3) Cuomo will win Milwaukee County, and needs high minority turnout there. This is where his stop-and-frisk reform will be crucial, as well as anything else that improves the lives of black or Latino New Yorkers.

      4) Dane County will be hard-fought, and will probably provide the key to victory. While it's a suburban county, Schweitzer has several big advantages:

         a) Dane County is rather white, even by suburban standards.
         b) Russ Feingold will probably still be popular here, and he'll be very actively pro-Schweitzer. He'd be especially good at providing cover against criticism of Schweitzer from the left.
         c) Cuomo's speeches about "taking on the public unions" won't be popular in Madison to say the least. The attack ads just make themselves.
         d) Because the rural areas surrounding Madison are blue, Madisonians tend to think in terms of candidates who are electable in farm country rather than writing it off. By contrast, Madison is nowhere near a purple suburban area of any great size (even its reddest suburbs are D+).

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:17:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd vote for Schweitzer. (8+ / 0-)

        Cuomo seems a little out of touch to me. I can't see a New Yorker (other than Hillary) winning rural WI if there is a true race.

        Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

        by WisJohn on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:24:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  obviously ditto (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisJohn, lordpet8, MichaelNY

          he'd carry Oregon, definitely, if it was a "true race", as you put it.  And probably most other western states, though perhaps not California.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:28:40 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Why would Feingold be so pro-Schweitzer? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:09:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  They're actually pretty similar on several issues (7+ / 0-)

          namely that both are quite pro-gun, both are pro-coal (Feingold moderately, Schweitzer strongly), and both are strong supporters of campaign finance reform and very anti-security state (Schweitzer has been vocally opposed to Real ID and the Patriot Act). Also, I think Feingold really approves of Montana Democrats in general, probably on libertarian grounds; he did a lot of fundraising and campaigning for Tester in the 2012 cycle.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

          by fearlessfred14 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:24:47 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Schweitzer was actually in Fort Atkinson, WI... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JGibson, MichaelNY, Taget

            ...on the first day of Wisconsin early voting for the November elections this year, and Schweitzer, although he hasn't formally announced whether or not he intends to run for President, has already received one endorsement, and it's from our good friend Lori Compas, who boldly predicted that Brian Schweitzer would be the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee!

            I myself would support Schweitzer if he runs and Cuomo is the only other credible Democrat running for the presidential nomination in 2016. I view Cuomo as absolutely untrustworthy.

            Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

            by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:50:08 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Schweitzer vs. Cuomo in IL (0+ / 0-)

              Cuomo would probably be heavily favored against Schweitzer if those are the only two major candidates running. Keep in mind that Cook County has about 40-45% of Illinois's total voting-age population (and probably a small majority of Democratic primary voters in Illinois), and Schweitzer would not play well at all in the Chicago area, particularly in Chicago itself.

              To say the least, Schweitzer would have to run up massive margins downstate, and not get blown out in the Chicago metro area.

              Think of Schweitzer as if he were a Democrat from Vermilion County and think of Cuomo as if he were a Democrat from Chicago's North Side, and you get a general idea of what I'm talking about.

              As the outgoing president who is term-limited, Obama would probably remain neutral in a Cuomo vs. Schweitzer contest, although he might privately support Cuomo.

              Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

              by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:24:24 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  that's a narrow field (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Not sure Schweitzer emerges unscathed if we get into the "results from state legislature elections" thing.

              Schweitzer just comes off as the "talks himself out of the deal" sort for a national election. He'll screw it up at a pivotal time.

              Then again, the entire Cuomo thing is irrelevant since he wouldn't even win New York in a primary if a certain person runs for President.

              The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

              by RBH on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:34:48 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  VA: I think Perriello might get an (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, dc1000, MichaelNY

    appointment in the Obama admin. Probably the State Department, given his background and the fact he was an active surrogate for the Obama campaign.

    I've said before, the main advantage to McAuliffe is that Bill Clinton(and maybe Hillary, given she wont be SOS anymore) would be a top surrogate.  They are close friends, obviously, Bill might really want a Dem governor in a key swing state if Hillary runs in 2016. So that and McAuliffe running a mistake free campaign can be enough for him to win.

  •  Pres-by-District PVI (7+ / 0-)

    I updated my spreadsheet. :)

    No surprises with anything today, but Bustos's district actually moved in PVI to the President from D+6 to D+7.

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:42:22 AM PST

    •  I might like to determine county PVIs (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv

      for the counties in WI-03, WI-02, IA-01, MN-01, and IL-17 to see just how the Driftless Area is trending. It's one of our more resilient rural areas generally speaking.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:23:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Didn't WI-03 lose a point of PVI? eom (0+ / 0-)

        28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

        by bumiputera on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:46:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson, bumiputera, fearlessfred14

          But it was the Northern half.

          SW Wisconsin, SE Minnesota, NW Illinois, and NE Iowa are all holding up for us and possibly even trending blue.  The Northwoods/Iron Range (WI-7, some of WI-8 and WI-3, MN-8, MI-1) areas are getting redder.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:37:11 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The Iron Range isn't really getting redder (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            the southern edges have just become more exurban and Republican, and those areas were never really parts of the Iron Range or as Democratic as the Iron Range to begin with, and have trended more Republican anyway.

            Democrats still have a substantial and high floor in MN-08 that's probably not going away anytime soon.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:16:38 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  The Wisconsin Northwoods are a bit different (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, MichaelNY

              in that while the Lake Superior counties are still pretty stable, the inland Northwoods are trending away from us even though only the three East Bachmannland counties (Polk, St. Croix, and Pierce) have significant exurban growth.

              Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

              by fearlessfred14 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:21:29 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  in other words (0+ / 0-)

              if the exurbs in MN8 were moved to MN6 and St. Cloud/Benton were moved into MN8, then there's a different story for both districts?

              The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

              by RBH on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:39:58 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  That's what I'd like to see (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            What I'm guessing is that WI-03 will have a fairly stable PVI, but Democratic strength will continue to realign from the northern half of the district to the southern half.

            Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

            by fearlessfred14 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:16:40 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  VA-Lt. Gov: Sen. Northam is running for Lt. Gov (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:43:06 AM PST

    •  Flashback (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      Wasn't Northam the State Senator who was going to switch parties and give the Republicans a power sharing agreement in the Virginia Senate?

      The plan was foiled because the Republican State Party Chair tweeted about it.

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

      •  Supposedly (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Though I wonder what the point of that was, or would have been.  Northam's current tone, particularly bashing the GOP on social issues, doesn't sound like that of someone who just a few years ago was willing to give that party more legislative power.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:46:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  So we'll have a primary after all (5+ / 0-)

      My longtime friend Aneesh Chopra has been running for L.G. for awhile, and Northam is the establishment guy drafted to challenge him.

      I think it will be close, but this might be folly by Northam, he's got more to lose than Aneesh in this.  Aneesh isn't going to hurt the ticket, and Northam can't help, it really all comes down to the Governor's race with the downballot races tracking close.  The L.G. and A.G. candidates on both sides are too anonymous for voters to pay attention to them personally.  But for all this, Northam and the party establishment brand can be damaged if they're not careful in the primary campaign.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:26:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  How is Chopra running his campaign? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        I'm ok with a primary so long as it stays friendly and they keep their eye on the fact that a Dem must win.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:11:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Good fundraising, active on Twitter (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Ben Tribbett on NLS had said some time ago that Aneesh had secured about $500K right out of the gate, impressive stuff.  But then Virginia has no donor limits, it could easily be a very few rich people...sustaining good fundraising is a different skill from hitting up a few rich people you made friends with over the years.

          Aneesh has been a tech guy, that's been his appointed role in state and federal government, so he's pushed that angle in job creation and entrepreneurialism, on Twitter and other events.

          But the party leadership, elected and unelected, largely want Northam.  They don't think Aneesh can win, is what it seems.  But I dismiss that Northam is any more electable.  I'll need to see proof of that over time.  Northam smells a lot like Creigh Deeds to me, a glibly-assumed blue dog, although he's from Norfolk so at least part of the urban crescent unlike Deeds.

          That said, Jim Moran endorsed Aneesh!  So the party leadership isn't united.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:39:42 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Northam will probably do well in... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      rural Virginia, along with Hampton Roads. I'm not sure if he can make inroads in NoVa, though, which he will need to win the primary.

  •  Sununu didn't get the memo (14+ / 0-)

    that this kind of talk is counter-productive:
    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:44:42 AM PST

  •  VA: That's the best choice the state can produce? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, JBraden

    A blue dog bagman against a right-wing nutjob?

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:02:58 AM PST

    •  Sadly, the Rep. party has the upper hand here. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, JBraden, James Allen, dc1000

      The Virginia Democratic party has a very small bench right now.   Also, the state is pretty moderate if you combine the more liberal northern VA, Charlottesville, Hampton Roads, and Richmond in with the pretty darn conservative rest of the state.

      Problem is, our Democrats are either too conservative for us here at DK, or too liberal for the state as a whole.  

      So, yes, this is about the best VA can do.

  •  Rep. Luis Guiterrez says Paul Ryan told him (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    he wants immigration reform.

    Obviously, a private comment and we dont know the details. Many Republicans want a piece by piece reform and not a comprehensive bill(which most Dems favor).

    But there will be a big push next year for a comprehensive bill from diverse groups of people(the WH, the DREAMERS, GOP officials like Jeb Bush and Carlos Guiterrez, Evangelical Christians like Richard Land, Republican business leaders, etc), so it will be interesting to see the approach potential 2016 presidential candidates take on this. Particularly Ryan and Sen Marco Rubio.  

    •  I don't see how "piece-by-piece" works... (9+ / 0-)

      ...in any way that helps Republicans politically.

      They have to throw the hard right under the bus and support comprehensive reform to gain any margin with Hispanics and other immigrant-heavy communities.

      If they're talking about something like a watered-down Dream Act, it only highlights their resistance rather than producing any image of cooperation.

      If they really want any political gain from immigration policy, their best bet is to support legalization and a path to citizenship for long-term undocumenteds and for children who came with their parents, and then demand strict border control provisions.  Hell, they might even get their expensive and inefficient wall if they play their cards right.

      Their best Plan B would be to simply embrace the Dream Act the Democrats wanted last year, with trivial changes as window dressing to be able to claim "concessions" that made it a "better" bill, and then make excuses to put off the rest of reform legislation.

      I'm ultimately skeptical anything will happen.  I think House GOPers will ultimately decide their electoral incentives lie with continued nativism...after all, that's what gerrymandering does, hardly any of these people needs any people of color to win.

      But I do think this gerrymandering ends up having the unintended consequence of keeping the GOP on the ideological extreme fringe where they keep losing ground over time.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:05:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You hit it there (4+ / 0-)

        Republican presidential candidates need some inroads among minorities to win.  The GOP House majority however, does not.  All their seats are drawn such that they can lose African-Americans 90-10 and Latinos 70-30 and still keep control.

        And that is why we will hear a bunch of national GOP leaders talking about changing their tone on immigration, but nothing will actually happen in the House.  There would be a conservative revolt if Boehner tried to bring something to the floor.

      •  I agree, I dont think piece by piece works (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        Rubio talked about "a comprehensive package of bills" passing instead of a single piece of legislation.

        Obviously, the issue there is what happens if one of the bills fails. But I'm okay with that, if it helps gets a comprehensive plan passed. But yeah, passing just a watered down DREAM act and calling it a day isnt going to work.

        I'm actually optimistic of a comprehensive proposal passing, but obviously, getting it through the House will be difficult. But like I said, I think there is going to be a big push for this from a lot of diverse groups all across the political spectrum in favor of getting something done.

      •  I think the right R "plan B" on immigration (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        is to give green cards to --every-- B.S. graduate or higher from accredited institutions in high-demand fields.

        That would potentially drive a wedge between Asians and Hispanics.

        I hope; therefore, I can live.

        by tietack on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:54:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  ? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack, MichaelNY

          I think that any degree period should be awarded a green card. I don't think the federal government should be in the business of picking and choosing which people to admit based on field of employment provided that they are educated individuals. Sure, let's not let it people who are likely to be a drain on society, but educated people are hardly ever a drain even those with degrees in, I don't know, Political Science like myself even though some idiots in congress (and now the Senate like Flake) disagree.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:12:07 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  No, I don't think that can work (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Asians won't bite on that.  It's too limited.  And plenty of college graduates in high-demand fields already find ways toward legal residence in the U.S.

          The thing about Asians is that I don't think immigration policy is that big an issue, and to the extent it is, it's not because of any difficulties endured by well-off people like college graduates.

          Asians just aren't a big enough piece of the electorate, and not growing fast enough, to help Republicans much.  You're talking about moving margins, and the smaller a group, the less it helps to get 5% of 10% of them to move your way.  If you swing 5% of Asians, you swing 200,000 votes nationally, an insignificant amount......even Gore's razor-thin national popular vote win was by 500,000.  But if you swing 5% of Hispanics, you swing about 650,000 votes, more than triple swinging 5% of Asians.  That's still not decisive nationally, but since Hispanics have decisively high concentrations in some of the swing states, it can swing a few tight battlegrounds.

          Any Plan B that helps Republicans needs to help with Hispanic voters, or it doesn't help at all.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:03:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm talking about the Canadian model (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            ref http://www.theglobeandmail.com/...

            The Conservative majority was won primarily in the suburban ridings of the 905 area code and in the City of Toronto. Of the 18 seats they gained in that region, 14 are more than 45 per cent immigrant, and most would not long ago have been considered un-winnable for the Conservatives.
            And this is among a group that voted 3:1 against Rs in the USA... Getting to Canadian levels would be a significant swing by Asians towards Rs, way more than 5%.

            I hope; therefore, I can live.

            by tietack on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:29:11 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  The GOP isn't capable of that, we're not Canada (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, tietack

              Racism and xenophobia are institutionalized into the fabric of the Republican Party and the American conservative movement.  It's accepted alternatively with an open embrace or quiet assent, but always accepted as OK. Canadian culture is different, without our centuries-long history of slavery, segregation, and periodic huge waves of mass immigration by unfamiliar ethnic groups.

              On top of that, the GOP is ideologically further right than the Conservatives in Canada.  It's not that there's not a far right up there, it's that the far right are too small in number to be permitted a powerful role in public affairs.

              So there is less for Canadian-Asians to fear emotionally, and less for them to disagree with intellectually, with the right-wing party up there than for Asian-Americans to fear and disagree with down here.

              It's just not comparable, the GOP really has an intractable problem.  Trying to appeal narrowly to Asians on a microbial immigration reform doesn't cut it.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 10:59:34 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Some demurrals (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone, tietack

                I mostly agree with your remark:

                Canadian culture is different, without our centuries-long history of slavery, segregation,

                Correct.

                and periodic huge waves of mass immigration by unfamiliar ethnic groups.
                Disagree. Ukrainians, Poles and Ashkenazic Jews from Eastern Europe; West Indians; Chinese.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 11:41:02 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  If the GOP does not adapt (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                then we have nothing to worry about, especially with demographics --and-- a positive economic cycle coming.

                I think people who care about power adapt to changing circumstances. If I'm wrong, then too bad for the other side.

                I hope; therefore, I can live.

                by tietack on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 07:45:04 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Dems could push for really progressive reform... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bfen, MichaelNY

      because I think there is enough in the Repub party that want to get this issue settled because they saw it killed them in 2012.  You could have Rubio in the Senate and Ryan in the House pushing to get something done to be seen as the immigration champion of the GOP - so neither would want to be seen as more hardline than the other.  

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:34:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Re: CD results. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I think I was wrong about Eastern KY--Obama had a similar swing in Chandler's KY-04 as he had nationally, but did way worse in the also-eastern KY-05.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:10:30 AM PST

    •  Chandler: KY-06. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

      KY-04 is the far northern district, safely Republican.  Or was that just a typo?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:13:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Typo. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:57:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  The drift to the right... (5+ / 0-)

        in KY-06 wasn't really bad though.  Just -0.6%.  Basically because while Obama tanked in Coal Counties, he actually didn't do that bad in much of the Bluegrass region.  

        KY-01 and KY-05 were the only two seats which had really strong drift against us.  Not that it matters of course.  But the drift isn't anywhere near as strong as West Virginia or Arkansas, which is comforting.  

        •  hmm could that be due to the KY Dems (0+ / 0-)

          shoring up the district?

          Curious to know how Obama would have done in the old 6th.

          In 1977, 31 percent of Californians supported same-sex marriag. marriage. That grew to 49 percent in 2009. In 1975, 51 percent of Californians supported abortion rights, support swelled to 70 percent in 2006, Republican opposition stayed the same.

          by lordpet8 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:01:01 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Probably a similar drop (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, jncca

            Most of the counties in the area dropped by similar amounts.  I'd guess Chandler would have lost by even more under the old lines.

          •  Not really... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            The Bluegrass region of Kentucky isn't really moving away from us, but most of the counties had support for Republicans in the mid to high 50s to low 60s.  

            Basically, there's a strong, stable base of support among white voters for Democrats, but it's not near a majority.  It's stable however, whereas similar groups in the rest of the South are trending against us.  In that way it acts a bit more like part of the Midwest than the South.  

    •  KY (5+ / 0-)

      KY's results were interesting this year. Obama hardly slipped at all in KY3 (Louisville) and only dropped about 2 points in KY2 (central), KY4 (north-Cincinnati burbs), and KY6 (Lexington). He did much worse in KY1 (west), and of course collapsed in KY5 (largely coal counties).

      We were talking about coal and KY yesterday, but coal seems to be the dominant issue only in KY5. KY doesn't seem to be so much a mirror image of WV as a hybrid of WV and TN outside of Memphis. Louisville and Nashville may be different in character (Louisville is more northern and not a citadel of country music) but politically they seem to behave the same way.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:53:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Has everyone already discussed Elliott County? (5+ / 0-)

        It was famously the virtually all-white rural county that gave Obama 63% in '08, the country's most stubborn ancestrally Democratic county.

        Well Obama barely hung on this time, with a 1% plurality.

        It was one of 4 counties Obama won, the others anchored by Lexington, Frankfort, and of course Louisville.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:57:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  It looks like KY6 had that going on too (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        the counties added to KY6 are typically Dem, but they swung hard against Obama and helped to sink Chandler.

        The swing map for Kentucky also shows you where the coal is located in Western Kentucky. So that's helpful for the sake of knowledge.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:06:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  ah (4+ / 0-)

          I wasn't aware that western KY had coal, but it turns out that it produces about a third of the state's coal output, and almost all the production in W KY is in KY1. See p. 9 of this document.

          http://www.kentuckycoal.org/...

          That explains why Obama tanked in KY1 and especially in KY5 while holding up ok in the rest of the state.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:32:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  one of the disappointments out of redistricting (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

            is that they didn't put Owensboro in the 1st, and chop the tail off of the 1st (putting it between the 2nd and 5th)

            But another quirk is that the largest coal producer, according to that PDF, is Wyoming... which obviously can't swing harder against Obama since the people involved in Coal there haven't voted Dem in awhile.

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:36:10 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Western coal country has always been red (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sacman701, MichaelNY, JGibson

              whether it is in Wyoming, Montana, Colorado, or North Dakota (note that the coal regions of MT, CO, and ND are much redder than those states as a whole). Now that I think about it, coal might explain some of Obama's drop in southern Illinois and Indiana as well. The biggest surprise on that PDF for me was not seeing any Appalachian states besides WV, KY, and PA. Maybe the coalfields in VA, TN, and OH have mostly played out.

              Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

              by fearlessfred14 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:05:34 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  agreed (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              fearlessfred14, sacman701, MichaelNY

              Wyoming was a big disappointment in redistricting.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:38:11 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  not completely (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          also a big rightward swing in the part of Kentucky (border of KY-1 and KY-2 near Indiana) that's in the Evansville media market, similar to his drop in Indiana generally.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:40:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  question: when does New York certify their (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    results?

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

    by CF of Aus on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:12:06 AM PST

    •  sometime around March at this pace? (5+ / 0-)

      Hurricane (I'm not really a fan of the "Superstorm" designation) + NYC-BOE = long wait time

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:45:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Via Ballotpedia (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      slacks, MichaelNY, CF of Aus

      http://ballotpedia.org/...

      9-216. Canvass of statements of general and special elections by state board of canvassers.
      1. The state board of elections shall be the state board of canvassers. The records of the state board of canvassers shall be kept in the custody of the state board of elections, which shall assign a deputy or other assistant to act as the clerk of said board of canvassers.
      2. The state board of canvassers shall canvass the certified copies of the statements of the county board of canvassers of each county. They shall canvass first the statements, if any, for the offices of president and vice-president and next the statements, if any, for the office of member of the state senate, and next the statements, if any, for the office of member of the state assembly. Three members of the board shall constitute a quorum. The state board of canvassers shall meet on or before the fifteenth day, or, in a year when electors of president and vice-president are chosen on or before the first Monday after the first Wednesday, of December next after each general election, and within forty days after each special election, to canvass such statements. The board may adjourn from day to day, not exceeding a term of five days. If any member of the board shall dissent from a decision of the board or shall protest against any of the proceedings of the board as irregular, he shall state such dissent or protest in a writing signed by him setting forth his reasons and file it in the office of the state board of elections.
      3. Upon the completion of the canvass the board shall make separate tabulated statements, signed by the members of the board or a majority thereof, of the number of votes cast for all the candidates for each office voted for, the number of votes cast for each of such candidates, the number of votes cast in each county for each of them and if the voters of any one district of the state voted for any such candidate, the name and number of such district, the determination of the board as to the persons elected to each office, the number of votes cast upon each ballot proposal, the number of votes cast in favor of and against each respectively, and the determination of the board as to whether it was adopted or rejected.
      4. Such tabulated statements shall be filed and recorded in the office of the state board of elections. Thereupon, the state board of elections shall transmit a certified copy of each such statement of votes cast for candidates for any office to the person shown thereby to have been elected to such office. The state board of elections shall prepare a general certificate under the seal of the state and attested by the members of the state board of elections, addressed to the house of representatives of the United States, of the due election of all persons chosen at that election as representatives of this state in congress, and shall transmit the same to the house of representatives. If any person so chosen at such election shall have been elected to fill a vacancy in the office of representative in congress, the statement of the state board of elections shall so specify.
      So basically, Monday, at least in theory.
      •  Thanks (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, CF of Aus

        That explains why the NYS BOE has a meeting scheduled for Monday.

        From what I hear Dutchess County (my home) will not be done counting by Monday. They still had 60% of the absentee ballots to count as of yesterday. The Republicans apparently have slowed down the process by objecting to a lot of ballots and asking for a ton of copies for no reason.

        M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

        by slacks on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:04:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  aw shucks (8+ / 0-)

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:16:04 AM PST

  •  Planned Parenthood was ultra-effective (10+ / 0-)

    this cycle. And here's a good article on how they did it:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Some key excerpts:

    What worked best, it turns out, were using Romney’s words themselves. The debates from the Republican primary gave them a number of options to choose from, including, “I’ll cut off funding for Planned Parenthood. We’re going to get rid of that,” and remarks that he would be “delighted” to sign legislation that would overturn Roe v. Wade.

    Figuring out the best message was only half the puzzle; Planned Parenthood had to figure out who would be most receptive to their ideas. For that, they turned to micro-targeting, identifying 1 million female voters who were likely to support legal abortion and the health law’s contraceptive mandate.

    Planned Parenthood focused mostly on swing states, such as Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire. But they also put some resources into solid red states, including Montana, where they targeted 41,000 female voters they thought they could turn out for Sen. John Tester’s reelection.

    The group was a bit wary about that race: They had a “Keep Calm and Trust Nate Silver” poster in their office, even as the polling guru was predicting a Tester loss. But they stuck with the campaign, mostly focusing on why Tester’s opponent, Rep. Denny Rehberg, was a bad choice for women.

    "Keep Calm and Trust Nate Silver." Love it!
  •  Official vote totals from MO (9+ / 0-)

    Obama 1,223,796 (44.4%)
    Romney 1,482,440 (53.8%)

    In other words, when the D campaign doesn't buy ads or have a campaign infrastructure in this state, 44% is still assured. And Romney was about 0.5% behind Roy Blunt's 2010 result.

    Senate
    McCaskill 1,494,125 (54.8%)
    Akin 1,066,159 (39.1%)

    Akin's showing is the worst Republican showing in a Governor/Senate election since 1964 (slightly behind the 39.28% showing from the Republican Senate nominee in 1974)

    Governor
    Nixon 1,494,056 (54.8%)
    Spence 1,160,265 (42.5%)

    Spence's investment of millions of his own dollars sure did pay off, eh?

    Lt. Governor
    Montee 1,219,457 (45.5%)
    Kinder 1,319,747 (49.3%)

    Montee improved on her percentage for Auditor from 2010 by 0.05%

    Secretary of State
    Kander 1,298,022 (48.9%)
    Schoeller 1,258,937 (47.4%)

    Always a good sign to win the one open seat statewide race in a year. Even if a Secretary of State is more of an advocate than a policymaker for elections.

    Treasurer
    Zweifel 1,332,876 (50.4%)
    McNary 1,200,369 (45.4%)

    Also another good win in an office that doesn't get much attention.

    Attorney General
    Koster 1,491,139 (55.9%)
    Martin 1,084,106 (40.6%)

    Which method do you prefer for an asskicking, Billboards or just gravelly asskicking? The asskicking Koster laid on the unqualified Ed Martin is pretty impressive when you consider a lot of the facts about Martin were known in 2010 but he still came with 3% of winning a seat in Congress.

    Other totals

    Senate: Republicans 24, Democrats 10 (+2 D)
    House: Republicans 110, Democrats 53 (+4 R, well, it'll be 109-54 if Tom Todd wins a small precinct by 141 votes on December 18th, but)

    So it could be worse. Dave Spence could be the Governor.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:08:56 PM PST

  •  IL-SEN 2016: Michelle Obama would lead (11+ / 0-)

    Kirk by double digits.

    I think Michelle has said she isnt interested in elected politics, and I believe her.

    I do kind of wonder what she and the president will do after they leave office. He will be 55 and she will only be 51. I think both have talked about working with children, and it seems like they could have impact on education, similar to the Clinton Global Initiative.

    Anyway, getting way ahead of myself here. The second term hasnt even started. :)  

    •  But it would be interesting to see GOP leader (5+ / 0-)

      Rush's reaction to a woman president (Hillary CLINTON or Gillibrand) and an African-American woman senator from Illinois named OBAMA). :) . I'm pretty sure neither is a Kenyan, although have we seen any birth certificates, college transcripts, etc.?

      "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

      by TofG on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:22:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I doubt she'd do it (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, AUBoy2007, pademocrat, MichaelNY

      Chelsea was off to college by the time Hilary ran.  I figure they'd want to go back to Chicago with Sasha and Malia for a bit before the First Lady would think about running for a Senate seat.

      NY-7 in real life, @BobbyBigWheel on Twitter

      by Bobby Big Wheel on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:49:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  From what I've read... (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AUBoy2007, jj32, JBraden, askew, MichaelNY

      ...Michelle has no interest in running for office.  She appears not to be like Hillary, that's just not a personal ambition for her even though she's fully supported Barack doing it (but then she knew that's what she was marrying, that he wanted this for his career).

      If anything, she's getting what for a political spouse might be the extreme best-case scenario.  There has to be a lot of hardship with the role, but she has to deal with it with him a state Senator for 6 years, a U.S. Senator for 4, President for 8, and then it's all over and they're still only in their mid-50s in age.  Less than 2 decades putting up with the hardships of elections even after earning the ultimate historical prize and still pretty young at the end of it all.

      If it was me in her shoes, and I wasn't a campaign junkie in my own right, I would relish my wife (in my case as a straight man) and I leaving the game.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:53:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Astounding Numbers (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, MichaelNY

      This poll shows Kirk with very weak approval numbers. I would certainly prefer to have 34-19 approvals over 19-34 approvals, but I would expect those numbers of a somewhat famous House member or a lesser state executive office like Treasurer or Secretary of State. I know he hasn't been around very much to define himself, but I figure that he's really going to have to work hard to boost his numbers in the next two years (if he really does come back this spring as he's publicly planned) if he wants to have a strong chance of re-election. If he has numbers similar to this in late 2014 and early 2015, I think his chances at re-election will be pretty weak. It's pretty easy to define an opponent with numbers this low, and I bet we could push his negative numbers up pretty high in a fairly rapid manner if given the chance.

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:30:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Who knows if Kirk will even run for reelection (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The last time an incumbent was reelected to this seat was 1986 as well.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:09:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Kirk's gone (0+ / 0-)

        The only way he wins re-election in Illinois in a presidential year is if 2016 is a massive red wave.

        That's pretty much what Scott Brown would've needed in Massachusetts this year.

    •  I'd like to see him on the Supreme Court (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, Chachy, MichaelNY

      a la Taft. He was a constitutional law professor after all. The ideal scenario would be for him to take over Thomas' seat.

  •  CA-PVIs (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chachy, MichaelNY

    All but one California district has either moved toward Democrats in PVI or stayed the same.

    Waxman's fell to D+11 from D+12.

    Only a few stayed the same (11, 13, 14, and 18). Literally every other district has a better PVI for us than 04/08 numbers. That both speaks to how badly Kerry did in California relative to Obama's 2012 performance and the degree to which California is moving in our direction.

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:23:49 PM PST

  •  Pres-by-CD correlation watch. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, sacman701, DCCyclone, tietack

    It's all the way down to...still 0.98 (0.978 actually).  The equation is:

    Obama12 = 1.06*Obama08 -4.61.
    The districts where Obama over-performed that by the most (again, that equation incorporates some of Obama's general over-performance in D areas, which are often minority D areas):
    AZ-07    Pastor, Ed    (D)    8.40927686205958
    FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    (R)    6.35344009202639
    AK-AL    Young, Don    (R)    6.20982199052736
    FL-26    Garcia, Joe    (D)    5.38968557647676
    CA-34    Becerra, Xavier    (D)    5.26805441125988
    FL-25    Diaz-Balart, Mario    (R)    5.22460313616273
    LA-01    Scalise, Steve    (R)    4.94980635198864
    AZ-03    Grijalva, Raul    (D)    4.89369171774567
    CA-46    Sanchez, Loretta    (D)    4.3383927666047
    LA-06    Cassidy, Bill    (R)    4.14319037318814
    CA-32    Napolitano, Grace    (D)    3.79232544397429
    CA-38    Sanchez, Linda    (D)    3.74796816479402
    LA-05    Alexander, Rodney    (R)    3.5921681864235
    CA-19    Lofgren, Zoe    (D)    3.37687313361964
    MS-03    Harper, Gregg    (R)    3.23283779824875
    CA-17    Honda, Michael    (D)    3.22723999237918
    CA-41    Takano, Mark    (D)    3.21920877869837
    FL-09    Grayson, Alan    (D)    3.20778996560006
    MS-02    Thompson, Bennie    (D)    3.1480281690141
    MS-04    Palazzo, Steven    (R)    3.08995746943115
    MS-01    Nunnelee, Alan    (R)    3.03364800686337
    GA-13    Scott, David    (D)    3.01273252417732
    CA-47    Lowenthal, Alan    (D)    2.96701823949247
    CA-40    Roybal-Allard, Lucille    (D)    2.95243197278913
    LA-02    Richmond, Cedric    (D)    2.93727989422769
    CA-35    Negrete McLeod, Gloria    (D)    2.91884353741497
    CA-29    Cardenas, Tony    (D)    2.91837959291568
    TX-9    Green (D)        2.69570705030507
    SC-02    Wilson, Joe    (R)    2.58148634984833
    Aside from the AZ and AK districts, influenced by the home states of Obama's 2008 opponents, Miami still reigns supreme.

    Here's the comparable list in the other direction:

    IL-15    Shimkus, John    (R)    -6.59367430067751
    UT-01    Bishop, Rob    (R)    -6.42585197727977
    KY-05    Rogers, Hal    (R)    -5.67472505091651
    IN-04    Rokita, Todd    (R)    -5.31014107945654
    WI-08    Ribble, Reid    (R)    -5.08845317056963
    IL-06    Roskam, Peter    (R)    -4.50676808654497
    IL-10    Schneider, Brad    (D)    -4.3963202324966
    MT-AL    Daines, Steve    (R)    -4.040037449677
    WI-07    Duffy, Sean    (R)    -4.01117682152243
    ND-AL    Cramer, Kevin    (R)    -3.62353455349218
    IN-05    Brooks, Susan    (R)    -3.53832632547139
    WI-03    Kind, Ron    (D)    -3.53474933330588
    MI-02    Huizenga, Bill    (R)    -3.45849581123294
    IL-12    Enyart, William    (D)    -3.40865274529099
    CT-04    Himes, Jim    (D)    -3.23444444444444
    MI-06    Upton, Fred    (R)    -3.15648067655188
    MI-01    Benishek, Dan    (R)    -3.08850228146719
    NV-02    Amodei, Mark    (R)    -2.98698223064919
    IL-08    Duckworth, Tammy    (D)    -2.91294317804296
    CA-33    Waxman, Henry    (D)    -2.9104851923199
    SD-AL    Noem, Kristi    (R)    -2.79081966699461
    IL-05    Quigley, Mike    (D)    -2.77524623790256
    MI-08    Rogers, Mike J.    (R)    -2.77033685281353
    VA-09    Griffith, Morgan    (R)    -2.74102040816327
    NV-03    Heck, Joe    (R)    -2.59102684197305
    IL-09    Schakowsky, Jan    (D)    -2.59066262972041
    IL-07    Davis, Danny    (D)    -2.54121608837619
    What happened in IL, anyway?  Does the home state effect matter less the second time around?

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:23:51 PM PST

    •  Yes (5+ / 0-)

      Usually the home state effect dissipates some the second go around, but not completely from what I understand. I'll try to track some literature down on this for you though because I'm not totally sure.

      With the new data who shows up as the most overperforming and underperforming Dems?

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:29:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Dunno. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        I don't remember what happened to that spreadsheet.  Here's the old "top" list:

        MA    8    Lynch    Selvaggi    76.26% (actual)    62.21% (predicted)
        TN    4    Stewart    DesJarlais    44.24%    30.92%
        FL    26    Garcia    Rivera    55.49%    43.46%
        MN    6    Graves    Bachmann    49.41%    37.83%
        MN    7    Peterson    Byberg    63.39%    52.35%
        MD    6    Delaney    Bartlett    60.61%    50.02%
        HI    2    Gabbard    Crowley    80.57%    71.41%
        TX    20    Castro    Rosa    65.68%    56.79%
        TX    23    Gallego    Canseco    52.51%    43.92%
        CT    3    DeLauro    Winsley    74.55%    66.30%
        AL    6    Bailey    Bachus    28.64%    20.71%
        TX    28    Cuellar    Hayward    69.57%    61.66%
        NJ    10    Payne Jr.    Kelemen    88.95%    81.07%
        NY    26    Higgins    Madigan    74.64%    66.90%
        TX    33    Veasey    Bradley    73.80%    66.36%
        Let's see.  Obama's big improvements in TX-20 (forgot to include that one--hard to integrate your spreadsheet with the other one) and FL-26 might push down Castro and Garcia.  MN-06, MN-07, TX-23, HI-02 were basically the same, although HI-02 might come out as an Obama under-performance if you factor in that his numbers slipped there, unlike in many D+infinity seats.  Don't know about the others.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:38:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Worth noting that a few of those (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701

      wouldn't make the list on a "simple" uniform swing:

      NV-03    Heck, Joe    (R)    -2.22885558815042
      IL-08    Duckworth, Tammy    (D)    -2.08054966891517
      CA-33    Waxman, Henry    (D)    -1.86172230572196
      IL-05    Quigley, Mike    (D)    -1.43600611632201
      IL-09    Schakowsky, Jan    (D)    -1.33888305439179
      IL-07    Davis, Danny    (D)    -0.049403399554441
      In other words, it's not really that those seats trended Republican--it's more that they're mostly D seats where Obama's numbers didn't hold up as well as they did in many other D seats.  Obama dropped by about 3 points in Schakowsky's district, which isn't really significant from a uniform swing perspective, but he didn't drop by even that much in many of the seats where he got 70% in 2008.  Depends on your perspective.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:30:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, and to quantify. (0+ / 0-)

      The equation as given had an average error magnitude of 1.73 points, while a uniform swing of 1.9 had an average error magnitude of 1.97 points.  

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:43:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hmmmm (6+ / 0-)

      I took a look and here's what I found (using total percentage of the vote not just the two party vote)

      2004: TX R +22.8, US R +2.5 (20.3% advantage)
      2000: TX R +21.3, US D +0.6 (21.9% advantage)

      1996: AR D +16.9, US D +8.5 (8.4% advantage)
      1992: AR D +17.8, US D +5.6 (12.2% advantage)

      1992: TX R +3.5, US D +5.6 (9.1% advantage)
      1988: TX R +12.6, US R +7.7 (4.9% advantage)

      1984: CA R +16.2, US R +18.2 (2.0% disadvantage)
      1980: CA R +16.8, US R +9.7 (7.1% advantage)

      1980: GA D +14.8, US R +9.7 (24.5% advantage)
      1976: GA D +31.8, US D +2.0 (29.8% advantage)

      So in 4 of the 5 examples the second term lost at least a bit off his home state edge against the national average.  The exception of George H.W. Bush can be explained by the state's Republican Party being ascendant in the 4 years (that's also how you can explain Reagan's larger than normal drop relative to the national vote from 1980-1984).

      It makes sense from a social science point of view as well.  The novelty of voting for someone from your home state wears off the second time around and the voter is more likely to return to his partisan roots.

      NY-7 in real life, @BobbyBigWheel on Twitter

      by Bobby Big Wheel on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:41:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Perhaps so (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      Clinton won Arkansas by less the second time around, despite winning by a much clearer amount nationally.

      Bush did slightly better in Texas the second time (as he did nationally), but in a lot of the major cities Kerry outperformed Gore.

      If you look at a direct 2004 to 2012 Illinois comparison, it's like Obama got zero home-state boost.  Kerry won Illinois by 10.4, while losing nationally by 2.4, for a difference of 12.8.  Obama won Illinois by 16.9, while winning nationally by (probably) 3.7, for a difference of 13.2.  Eight years later with a home-state president, and the state has only shifted 0.4% more Dem than the country as a whole.  While Obama did give up a lot of ground in the ancestrally GOP Chicago suburbs (but notably, not as much in the minority-heavy city precincts), he gave up even more ground down-state, and this continues a trend seen even in 2008, when Obama actually performed worse in a number of down-state counties than Al Gore.  

      The trends were even more drastic when compared to 1996, when Bill Clinton swept much of down-state Illinois.  To put it a different way, Clinton actually would have won Illinois even if not a single vote was reported in Chicago.  Obama 2012 would not have.  So the real softening in Illinois' 2012 numbers shouldn't be blamed on a loss of home-state appeal, but rather on trends in down-state Illinois that have been going on for decades now.  Down-state Illinois is becoming more like its neighbors in Missouri, Indiana, and Kentucky.  It's a level of realignment on par with West Virginia, it just hasn't happened as rapidly recently.  Clay County, Illinois went by 7 points for Clinton 1992, 1 point for Clinton 1996, 26 points for Bush 2000, 35 points for Bush 2004, 23 points for McCain 2008, and now 44 points for Romney 2012.

      •  Downstate explains a little bit of the drop (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JGibson, Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

        But Obama had lower margins across the Chicago suburban districts.  

        NY-7 in real life, @BobbyBigWheel on Twitter

        by Bobby Big Wheel on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:14:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm thinking Romney might have been a better fit (4+ / 0-)

          for the ancestrally GOP suburbs than McCain.  The Philadelphia suburbs also saw significant backtracking from 2008.

          Still, Obama 2012 still hit numbers in the Chicago suburbs that no other Democrat has been able to do.  He carried  DuPage again, albeit quite narrowly.

          Ultimately, the reason for Obama dropping so much in the Chicago suburbs may be because he increased so much four years ago over standard Dem performance.  As in Indiana, Obama breaking the Dem ceilings by so much allowed a more competent Republican to get back a lot of easy voters.

          That whole region of the country (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Northwest Ohio) saw some of the largest swings towards Obama from 2004, and I don't think it's a coincidence they all saw strong rightwards shifts this year that outpaced their neighbors.

          •  campaign effort (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Xenocrypt, fearlessfred14, MichaelNY

            I think the swings in IN, MI, and WI also reflect changes in campaign effort from 2008 to 2012.

            IN: 08 Obama outspent McCain 17.8m-3.2m! 12 neither side contested.

            MI: 08 both sides spent about 13m but McCain pulled out with about a month left, allowing Obama to run it up. 12 neither side played much, but GOP groups spent much more than Dems IIRC.

            WI: 08 Obama outspent McCain 13.6m-9.2m. 12 Romney made a late push, causing Obama to go in. GOP groups spent more IIRC.

            Compare these to MN, which is somewhat culturally similar especially to WI but where Obama didn't drop off much from 08 to 12. In 08, McCain outspent Obama 4.5m-3.0m and visited the state 9 times to Obama's 1. In 12, both sides blew MN off.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:16:36 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah, the biggest campaign effects (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, jncca, MichaelNY

              are the differences between showing up and not showing up at all.  That's why Obama dropped heavily even in Indianapolis this time.  (While this doesn't matter for, say, California, because nobody campaigned there either time.)

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:24:13 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  This is especially true in central WI (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              WisJohn, sacman701, MichaelNY

              where I remember seeing two of the markets being some of the few where Romney was outspending Obama, I think in September. Obama's numbers in 2008 probably reflected him being basically uncontested in the central and northern WI markets, since he won rural counties that are normally considered red, such as Waupaca and Waushara. Also, Romney knew to focus on Green Bay, which McCain apparently neglected. That market is basically the I-4 corridor of Wisconsin these days (though it leans right compared to the state as a whole).

              Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

              by fearlessfred14 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:29:31 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  He still did pretty well in those suburbs (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          doing a good bit better than even Kerry, and substantially better than Clinton and Gore.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:07:17 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  "Doing a good bit better than even Kerry". (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Is Kerry the gold standard now?

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:12:20 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well no, but he's the most relevant (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              WisJohn, MichaelNY

              standard of comparison, and many of the trends that have become accelerated under Obama, can extrapolated from Kerry's numbers too, like the Democratic trend in the Philly suburbs.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:17:57 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Media markets and home state (5+ / 0-)

      Home state was mentioned already, but don't forget Southern Illinois is in both St Louis and Evansville media markets, both of which were contested last time but not this time.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:43:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nj Gay marriage question (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Why can't they have a statewide referendum?

    Frankly, they do not have recycle deposit on coke cans and plastic bottles.

    I may be expecting too much from them.

    •  I think that would require amending their (0+ / 0-)

      state constitution or the like IIRC.

    •  The (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, dc1000, pademocrat, MichaelNY

      gay rights group here in Jersey, GardenStateEquality say they don't want a referendum because "Civil Rights Aren't Voted On." While that may be true the real reasons they don't want it voted on are because they have little money as a group, extremely poor organization, and because in Jersey to get a referendum put on the ballot you need the Legislature to approve it first, and since they don't want to politicize the issue they have refused to do so.

      In my honest opinion gay marriage is unlikely to come to Jersey unless the US Supreme Court makes it legal for all 50 States (extremely unlikely) or we wait until Christie is not Governor anymore.

      •  Ah, thank you (0+ / 0-)

        I had the complication wrong.

      •  I wonder if Christie could evolve on it... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, lordpet8, dc1000, MichaelNY

        He could say he vetoed it because he ran promising he would, but running for re-election he could now run on saying he would support it.  I just think he sees the writing on the wall and in four more years it could be the issue that keeps him from the White House if Same Sex marriage support is up over 50% nationally and up even bigger in some of the key swing states and he's the candidate who vetoed it as Governor.  If Dems in State legislature could get the votes for it again, they should pass it again his next term and dare him to veto it again.  

        They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

        by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:37:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Gov. Lingle's veto of civil unions (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dc1000, pademocrat, JBraden, askew, MichaelNY

          got a lot of attention in Hawaii.  That was pretty much around the point that Democrats stopped seeing her as a moderate.  Two years later she got destroyed by 25 points running for Senate against someone she had previously beaten for governor.

          If Christie allows same-sex marriage to happen he's finished in national GOP politics, but I question whether he wants to be remembered as the NJ Governor who vetoed marriage equality 10 years down the road when it's the national consensus.

          •  You'd think that Democrats would have stopped (8+ / 0-)

            seeing her as moderate when she gave the nominating speech for Sarah Palin at the 2008 GOP Convention and completely trashed President Obama.

            •  That also got a lot of play in the Senate race (6+ / 0-)

              The national GOP was eager to use Lingle (a not-as-conservative Republican woman from a blue state) as a national face of the party, but in the end that helped end her career.

              If Gov. Martinez of New Mexico starts becoming a national GOP spokeswoman she will be in danger of suffering the same fate.  Of course, Martinez is popular now, but so was Lingle...in fact, one of the most popular governors in the country during the middle of her tenure (2005-2008 or so), with near 80% approval ratings.  If Lingle had been content to stay away from the national GOP, and actually governed like the moderate people expected her to be, she might have given us a run for our money this year in the Senate race.

          •  I don't think he'd be finished nationally... (0+ / 0-)

            Because unless the GOP changes back to winner-take-all, he could hang in early through the Red states and then win big in Cali, NY and other solid blue States and he'd be in a much better position to win the Presidency as a result.  

            They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

            by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:11:36 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  If Christie allows SSM to happen under his watch (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Chachy, askew, MichaelNY, JGibson

              I think his campaign will go a lot like Rudy Giuliani's.  Getting thumped early and then winning CA, IL, NY, and NJ was his plan too.  Didn't get him that far.  Social conservatives are a powerful and growing segment of the Republican Party.

              No presidential nominee has lost every early state.  Candidates that have done so have seen their national polling numbers plummet at the expense of those actually winning the early states.  They become forgotten as excitement builds around those taking the early victories.

    •  Because as my marriage equality diary points out (0+ / 0-)

      New Jersey doesn't do statewide referendums

      Wikipedia has a great article with a map of what states allow what. http://en.wikipedia.org/...

  •  Obama by CD available for CA09 and CA10 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, KingofSpades

    San Joaquin County, CA Statement of Vote:

    http://www.sjcrov.org/...

                Obama     Romney    Other       Total
    CA09    82922     58370       3558        144850
    CA10    31199     27701       1614        60514

    Total    114121    86071       5172       205634

    •  CA01 (0+ / 0-)

      CA01 for counties not on Kos's Pres by CD

      Modoc County Statement of vote

      https://docs.google.com/...

      Obama    1111
      Stein           20
      Hoefling      11
      Romney    2777
      Johnson      42
      Barr            21
      Writein       37

      total         4019

      Plumas  Statement of vote
      http://plumascounty.us/...

      Obama     4026
      Stein            71
      Hoefling       22
      Romney    5721
      Johnson     128
      Barr             40
      Writein        72

      total       10080

      Sierra-unofficial results available.  Statement of vote not posted.

      http://www.sierracounty.ws/...

      Siskiyou  Statement of Vote

      http://www.co.siskiyou.ca.us/...

      Obama        8046
      Romney     11077
      Stein             152
      Hoefling        117
      Johnson        242
      Barr              133
      Writein         226

      Total         19993

      Tehama

      Dec. 11 Statement of Vote to Secretary of State
      (E+35) No later than this date, the County Elections Official shall send, by registered mail, one
      complete copy of the Statement of Votes Cast to the Secretary of State.

      •  CA02 (0+ / 0-)

        Counties missing in Pres by, CA02

        Humboldt
        Official canvass report

        http://co.humboldt.ca.us/...

        Obama      34457
        Romney    18825

        stein             2505
        hoefling          105
        johnson          910
        barr                370
        alexander          2
        anderson          26
        durham            0
        goode             4
        harris               0
        paul               266
        title                0
        white              0
        subtotal     57686

        unresolved          0
        unqualified writein   216

        total                   58092

        Marin statement of votes

        http://www.co.marin.ca.us/...

        obama        99896
        romney       30880

        johnson        1333
        barr                401
        stein             1558
        hoefling          181
        writein            482

        total         134731

        Mendocino

        Sonoma

        Trinity

  •  IL-02: Hutchinson has lined up the (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, geoneb, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    endorsement of State Rep. Thaddeus Jones (Calumet City). He was also considering a bid and had been in contact with Zuccarelli. Hutchinson has also lined up the endorsements of State Reps. Anthony DeLuca (Chicago Heights), Lisa Dugan (Bradley), and State Rep. Al Riley (Olympia Fields).

    http://www.nwitimes.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:31:29 PM PST

  •  PV: Obama now up by 3.64% (9+ / 0-)

    about 4,675,000 votes.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:32:06 PM PST

  •  I'm sure everyone knows that Hillary sent (14+ / 0-)

    out thank you letters to failed Democratic Congressional candidates. It's being taken as a sign, but apparently her fundraisers have been told to get ready. I'm really beginning to think there is no doubt that she is running.

    Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:39:35 PM PST

    •  Seems obvious now. n/t (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, sulthernao, MichaelNY
      •  Yes (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, ArkDem14, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        And I was one of the biggest "she's not"'s around here.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:08:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I wouldn't go that far... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, askew, bythesea, MichaelNY

        ...but like wwmiv I'm becoming more persuaded she's seriously thinking about it.  I think she meant it in previous comments that she was done.  But there are obviously a lot of Hillary fans who are personally close to her and want her to run, and that seems to be having an influence.

        Fine by me if she runs, she's the safest choice for us, as long as she dumps Mark Penn and his ilk.  I do think she needs to shed that chip on her shoulder and embrace that the Democratic Party and the country have, because of racial and religious demographics, moved left since Bill was President.  She can't be identified with triangulation anymore, or else she gives a primary rival the same opening Obama had.

        She'll be huge as the first woman major party Presidential nominee, and then the first woman President.  That's another breakthrough where it's important for our side to be first.

        I look forward also to the inevitable World News Daily stories that there's a tape out there showing Michelle Obama yelling "whitey" as she pumps her fist upon catching Hillary in bed in a threesome with Vince Foster and another woman...we need a grand unifying conspiracy theory.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:24:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Wasn't the biggest fan of Hillary in 2008 (15+ / 0-)

      But, I think she has proved herself as SOS, and will likely vote for her in the primary.

      Though, at this point, anyone but Cuomo will do.

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Daman09 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:13:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I got an email about her campaign debt (5+ / 0-)

      Seems like an early way of easing into the game. She's my first choice.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:29:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I also got an Elizabeth Warren campaign debt email (4+ / 0-)

        Hard to believe that she raised $42 million and still finished with debts.  She attributed this to having more election day volunteers than they anticipated, but I suspect they may just want to get one more squeeze out of their massive donor base before people's attention moves elsewhere.

        30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

        Truman: "The buck stops here!"
        Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

        by Marcus Graly on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:48:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I wonder if/how Hillary jumps back (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      into the world of partisan politics.

      I wondered above if she might campaign for Terry McAuliffe in VA next year. He is a good friend of the Clintons, and certainly VA is an important state in 2016.

      Or might she wait for the 2014 midterms? Or maybe do under the radar stuff like the letter writing effort?

      It's an important decision because her strong favorable ratings are going to fall a bit if she reenters the political world.

      •  I can't wait (5+ / 0-)

        to see her on the campaign trail again, stumping for Democratic candidates. She's really good.

      •  If she wants to run she NEEDS to help TMac (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, MichaelNY

        She's gotta get in here for McAuliffe if she's serious about 2016.  Virginia is the next electoral ground zero, especially since Christie looks strong in New Jersey and Virginia unlike NJ is now a swing state in Presidentials.

        Honestly, any Democrat who wants to be the next President needs to get in here and campaign for McAuliffe.

        And if others do but Hillary doesn't, that's conspicuous since it's public record that the Clintons and TMac are personally tight.

        Helping TMac win, and break the decades-long streak of the Governor's race going opposite the President's party, is a huge feather in the cap of the Democratic Party if we can do it.  You don't want to be absent from that if it happens.  And Cooch is controversial enough that it can happen.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:16:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  As a Wisconsinite, this ain't true (0+ / 0-)

          At least in terms of on the ground appearances.

          •  I don't know what you mean (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            If you mean Wisconsin voters won't care about candidates campaigning in Virginia, sure, I agree.  That's not why they should do it.  They should do it to appeal to rank-and-file Democrats in Virginia.

            If you want to be President, you seize opportunities to curry favor with Democratic activists and get positive media attention in important states.  That's mainly Iowa and NH and SC, but it's also November battlegrounds.

            The thing about Virginia is that we dominate the spotlight next year.  So if you're a Democrat contemplating running for President, you want to make an appearance to help the party.

            Same goes for the GOP, I'll be surprised if Paul Ryan and Scott Walker and Jindal and whoever else doesn't show up for Cuccinelli.  That sort of thing has already been happening around the country.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:13:01 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  While OfA did some work on the Recall (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Obama didn't show up personally, much to the annoyance of many people on the ground. Obama did fine in Wisconsin, and most people had forgotten about it by November. And VA doesn't have an out-sized role in the primary (which would probably be Hilary's to lose).

              •  Not Hillary's to lose (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Obama crushed her here, 64-35.

                She's displayed big vulnerabilities here.

                And general election trial heat polling in Virginia at that same time was a stark contrast, with Obama clearly running tight with McCain while Hillary was not competitive.

                But it really comes down to Iowa/NH/SC, if she wins a couple of those, then yes game over.  But that's true of anyone (on the Democratic side, Republicans are more erratic), you win a couple of those three, then you're the frontrunner going forward.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:27:54 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  it may be hers to lose (0+ / 0-)

                  because none of the potential candidates other than her will be anything like Obama.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:25:41 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  By what criteria? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    DCCyclone

                    I mean, politically, all of them will overlap considerably with Obama. And in terms of background, there are similarities but a lot of differences between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama. So please elaborate.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 02:58:15 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  None of them are as compelling speakers, (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      none of them have as good of a profile/background, none of them have particularly compelling reasons to vote for them, none of them are particularly exciting.  And in particular none of them seem like they would be appealing in more than one of the early states.

                      My only partial exceptions to these would be Schweitzer and Biden.  But I don't see a realistic scenario where any of them beats her.

                      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                      by James Allen on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:26:33 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

            •  This is just stupid (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              If Hillary runs she will clear the field of any meaningful opposition. Although I'm sure that she'd campaign for McAuliffe only because I do not think that Hillary would be competitive in Virginia in the general.

              Campaigning for other candidates, especially in tossup races, can do alot of damage to your own candidacy because you might burn bridges with voters you need to win over for your own race. Donations, endorsements, and other less high profile things are the most important stuff because they both satisfy the activist base and get elite support.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:37:20 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  She's not going to clear the field if she runs... (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, tietack, jncca

                The fact that she lost once means that she can lose again, plus many of the candidates who are talked about as running (such as O'Malley) almost have no choice but to run in 2016, since they're term-limited and not running now means they have to assume they aren't going to get another chance for 8 more years (and being out of office for 10 years is killer for anyone who has any presidential ambitions). This would also include Joe Biden, who either has to run now or not at all, meaning that his decision will probably be independent of Hillary Clinton's.

                I think a lot of people are overestimating Hillary Clinton as a candidate, especially when if she runs, it's going to be quite reluctantly compared to 2008

                Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                by NMLib on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:02:23 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Has any D candidate ever "cleared the field" (0+ / 0-)

                if he wasn't already an incumbent President? If I remember my reading correctly, I don't think even Stevenson cleared the field in '56.

                I hope; therefore, I can live.

                by tietack on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:20:01 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  That makes no sense (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                NMLib, MichaelNY

                She was inevitable last time, too.  And lost.

                It's folly to assume she'd clear the field after that.

                She might, that's possible...but she might not.

                And no campaigning for others doesn't hurt, that makes no sense.  I've never seen that happen.  Campaigning for your own party's nominee in a key state is standard campaign fare.

                Hell, out-of-state Governors from all over, including Brian Schweitzer, have campaigned in Virginia in recent years for state and local Democrats.  It's strange only in that local voters wouldn't be influenced by out-of-state pols they've never heard of and don't care about......but it certainly doesn't hurt, either.  The point is to show local activists and party regulars you're present, and build the relationships.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 05:32:05 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  plus (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          isn't TMac a Clintonista anyway?

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:56:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Sure, but that doesn't matter (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY

            What matters is being present in Virginia when you have a reason to be present.  Helping Democrats win the Governorship helps not only in the Virginia Presidential primary in 2016, it's part of laying the groundwork for the general election in what's quickly become a very important swing state.

            The purpose isn't to get TMac's endorsement, it's to lay the groundwork with rank-and-file Virginia Democrats.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:09:38 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  I can't imagine Hillary sits on the sidelines (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          during TMac's campaign. He was a huge ally for her in her 2008 campaign.  Though he gave her horrible advice towards the end of her campaign by telling her not to concede and instead give a rally speech in some underground bunker, but I'd imagine she doesn't hold that against him.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:25:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Christie looks strong in NJ for governor, right? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Was there some polling that tested him for president there in the last month or so?

          I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

          by bjssp on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:07:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  As much as I would like that, I want her to (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          lay low for a little bit after she steps down, it wouldn't do anything other than hurt her image if she barreled into electoral politics so soon after her Secretaryship.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 01:22:49 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  couldn't hurt to (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, itskevin, MichaelNY

      do good-work non-Government stuff in 2013 and start picking some places to surrogate at in 2014, then announce in 2015.

      They'll talk and speculate and all that stuff, but life will go on.

      For all the talk about how strong a position she started in back in 2007, I think she'd be in an even stronger position in 2015.

      I'm not taking a probability here, if she runs, it's very hard to see her not being the nominee. And I'd hope for her running mate to be someone from west of the Mississippi.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:45:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  She definitely could (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TrueBlueDem, MichaelNY

      but first, 2 years of rest and relaxation after 4 years of SoS.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:15:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Much stronger support for marriage equality (9+ / 0-)

    in NJ than IL(47-42), according to PPP. That's surprising.

    There is actually a chance it passes in IL next year.

  •  Sabato has a little fun (11+ / 0-)

    at the expense of the Senate GOP

    In 2010, Republicans probably threw away three seats when they nominated weak candidates in Colorado, Delaware and Nevada. Then, in the just-concluded election, they threw away, at a minimum, two more seats in Indiana and Missouri (thanks to the disastrous candidacies of Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin). And that’s not counting other Senate races where different Republican candidates might have performed better or even won in Florida, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia.
    So instead of having a tied Senate, or a tiny majority for one side or the other, Republicans are in the unenviable position of needing to levitate out of a deep hole they’ve dug for themselves. Only then can they end Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-NV) six-year (and counting) leadership of the Senate
    Let’s recall that at this time two years ago, Republicans also had an attractive playing field: They had to defend only 10 seats, while Democrats had to defend 23. And yet Democrats actually ended up netting two seats. Not to be overly cruel, but the GOP had to try hard to blow the Senate in 2012 — and their efforts were amply rewarded.
    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/...

    So if anything I like our odds for this coming cycle.

    In 1977, 31 percent of Californians supported same-sex marriage. That grew to 49 percent in 2009. In 1975, 51 percent of Californians supported abortion rights, support swelled to 70 percent in 2006, All while Republican opposition stayed the same.

    by lordpet8 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:25:29 PM PST

  •  Joe Lieberman. (6+ / 0-)

    He says he regrets saying so many negative things about Obama in 2008, but doesn't regret supporting McCain. I wonder who he voted for this year. Anybody got an idea?

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

    by WisJohn on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:48:01 PM PST

  •  CA-39 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Amazingly, Ed Royce accrued more raw votes than Mitt Romney, 145,607 vs. 133,742.

    I think the only way we grab this seat is if he retires, or if he runs his mouth some more to the point where he becomes extremely toxic.  I don't have many nice things to say about Jay Chen, but the fact that he wasn't a some dude, and had a somewhat good profile really says Royce may be harder to defeat than it looks like on paper.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:54:32 PM PST

  •  gay marriage in NJ (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, MichaelNY

    Didnt Christie say he would sign off on a referendum?

    Its a pretty weaselly way of having his cake and eating it but doesnt that leave the door open to the legislature passing a bill putting it up for a public vote?  

    I realise that there might be plenty of strategic reasons not to want to do this but with those numbers it looks a pretty safe bet and there is some momentum now. With Christie looking pretty safe it might be the only way of making gay marriage happen in the next 5 years.

    What do people think?

  •  Any competent IL DEM will crush Kirk (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    so we don't need Michele to run. I dare Kirk to run again!

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:13:41 PM PST

    •  Kirk's path to victory (12+ / 0-)

      1) Go up against a terrible Dem nominee

      2) Run in massive GOP wave year

      3) Avoid presidential turnout

      4) Have Green candidate take 3%

      Result: Win by 1%.

      Needless to say, Kirk is in serious trouble in 2016.

      •  well (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, MichaelNY

        2 is probably canceled out by incumbency, and 4 will probably happen again. 3% isn't that high; look at MT this year.

        But I think the race starts at Tilt or Lean D.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 04:06:03 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  MT typically (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          shows higher third-party support, no? I haven't heard the same for IL.

          •  IL's Greens are pretty strong (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, MichaelNY, JGibson

            one of the strongest state parties for Greens, I think.  OR and ME are probably above them, as is AR for some unfathomable reason.

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:02:28 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  The Ozarks (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca, gabjoh, MichaelNY, bumiputera

              There are alot of environmentalist hippies who live in the Ozarks.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:20:07 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  That, and how conservative the local Dems are (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                If I had grown up in the area, I might have been one (and I hate the Green Party, despite the fact that my personal policy views are much closer to them, honestly).

                How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

                by gabjoh on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:03:59 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Oregon's are not strong relative to anything (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              they exist and frequently have candidates on the ballot, even for the lege, but they usually get outpolled by both the Constitution and Libertarian parties individually.  The division of the Green Party, along with the existence of 2 other left wing parties, the WFP and Progressive Party, relly dilutes any strength they could have.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:25:35 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I meant liberal third parties (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                in general do very well in Oregon.

                19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                by jncca on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:43:36 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  ME, AR, VE, and IL (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Are the strongest, with OR being the next but still much weaker than them.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:05:23 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  shouldn't all DKErs (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, bumiputera, wwmiv, jncca

                Know all 50 state abbreviations by heart? How can you not know that Vermont is VT? /teasing

                And Vermont almost has no Green Party presence to speak of, unless you were referring to the Progressive Party, which is quite strong. They hold three state senate seats (they picked one up this year), 4 House seats and one U.S. Senate seat (Bernie Sanders is not a member of the Progs but the party was basically formed in his image).

                This makes them the strongest third party in the country.

                24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                by HoosierD42 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 01:30:09 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  no (6+ / 0-)

      but a competent Democrat would have a good shot.  Illinois is a blue state but its not Massachusetts, and Kirk has experience winning in a Dem-leaning congressional district.  He is probably not favored, but I don't think we're that favored either.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:46:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  so we're not nominating Dan Seals in 2016? (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Tyler O, Skaje, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:55:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, I think that's right (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        One of the winning congressional candidates this year might be a strong candidate. I'm sure there will be a lot of talk about Tammy Duckworth running for the seat.

        •  what about Foster? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bfen, MichaelNY

          much as I'd like to see more diversity in the senate, Duckworth is an underperformer.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 04:03:19 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Duckworth (5+ / 0-)

          and Strong Candidate are mutually exclusive.

          The only freshman who I think is strong is Enyart.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 04:07:30 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  agreed (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            just meant she is probably considered a rising star, in part because of her close relationship with Obama, Durbin and Emanuel, so her name will get mentioned the most.

            Foster and Bustos seem like they would strong candidates, imo.

            •  Bustos (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              geoneb, MichaelNY

              Had major problems with her candidacy that I would rather not like in a Senate candidate.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 04:36:52 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Major problems with her candidacy? (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone, jj32, MichaelNY

                Like what?

              •  I thought Bustos ran a great campaign (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                She did pretty well in the debates and argued well for her policy proposals. She didn't back away from attacking Schilling and attacked him on a whole host of issues.

                But is someone from Moline really going to win a Democratic primary that is dominated more or less by how Chicago votes. Plus, I think her stance on guns may cause her problems in Chicago.

                Durbin, who's from Springfield, also has found success despite not being from Chicagoland and Bustos is one of his favorites.

                •  Thats a great point (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  GloFish

                  I cant see Illinois having two senators not being being Chicagoland. She has known Durbin since she was a little girl. So my guess is that Duckworth will run in '16, and if Durbin retire in 2020 he'll tap her to succeed him.

                  On the issues of guns, I think she'll do a Gillibrand, and change her position. I commeted on that issue about her back in September

                  Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

                  by BKGyptian89 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:22:39 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Duckworth, really? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen

                    Then I think Kirk has a good chance of winning. Look at Duckworth's electoral track record.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:02:02 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I don't get the concern about Duckworth (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      BKGyptian89

                      she has run two elections.  She lost the first one by 6% in a district Kerry also lost by 6%.  She won the second one by 10% in a district that Kerry would have probably won by about 5%.  You can point to her "underperforming" Obama but his 2008 numbers in suburban Chicago were unprecedented, and comparable to the fact that Bush won a number of Latino majority seats in Texas, yet they remained quite Dem on the local level.

                    •  So?!?! (0+ / 0-)

                      what does that mean? How many pols have lost a race, before they've won? And it's not like she's a perennial candidate. She'll win if she decides to run.

                      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

                      by BKGyptian89 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 05:32:39 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                •  Isn't IL one of those states (5+ / 0-)

                  where there's usually one "city" Senator and one "outstate" Senator?  Durbin succeeded fellow downstater Paul Simon, who succeeded Charles Percy...who seems to have been from Chicago, as was his predecessor, former Chicago alderman Paul Douglas.  But Percy served alongside Dirksen (from Peoria), then an appointee who I don't care about, then Adlai Stevenson III, who seems to have been from Chicago, and then Alan Dixon, who seems to have been a downstater.

                  Anyway, Dirksen followed Scott Lucas, who represented IL-20, and regardless of the numbering seems to have been downstate.  Lucas succeeded William Dieterich, who seems to have been an outstater too.  Before him was the former Jackson County state's attorney, Otis Glenn.  Then some guy who couldn't actually take his seat, and then someone from Champaign, William "not that" McKinley.  Before him was Lawrence Sherman, who ran for Mayor of Springfield and was also a judge in McDonough County, which isn't near Springfield, but isn't Chicagoland either.

                  Before him was "boss" William Lorimer, a Chicagoan, of course.  But we're back into the 1910s by now, let's check the other seat: by then, it was held by Shelby Cullom, of Springfield, who had served since 1883!

                  Cullom succeeded David Davis, a Lincoln associate of Bloomington, Illinois.  

                  So aside from the Percy/Stevenson decade (i.e., the 70s), and maybe an appointee or two, there's been at least one Senator from non-Chicagoland going back well over 100 years.

                  27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                  by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:33:47 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

          •  Why do you think Duckworth is so strong? (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            So far it looks like:

            Schneider underperformed by 16 points.
            Bustos underperformed by 11 points.
            Duckworth underperformed by 6.6 points.

            All numbers relative to Obama. Not sure underperforming by 6.6 points is exactly 'strong.' Though its certainly the best Illinois Democrats have done so far. (no data from the 11th, where Foster probably did around Obama's %)

            •  wwmiv was saying she isn't strong. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              GradyDem, DCCyclone

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:20:15 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Whereas (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, MichaelNY

              Enyart overperformed Obama.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:23:24 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  His district is a lot more "ancestrally" dem (6+ / 0-)

                I'll get to running the numbers sometime today, but downballot Dems running for statewide office generally do much better than Obama did in southern Illinois.

                NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

                by sawolf on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:26:30 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Just ran it (0+ / 0-)

                  Since I'm using only county level data I just divided Madison by two and then added a point overall since the district's portion of Madison was significantly more Dem.

                  Anyway, it came out as just 3.5% less Dem than the state at 56.5% vs. 60% Dem.  It's still pretty damn friendly to Dems all things considered.  That's with 2006-2010 numbers for senate/state races.

                  NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

                  by sawolf on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:02:56 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  But that only helps him statewide... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  ...assuming he's not a true conservaDem a la Glenn Poshard.

                  As long as he's a perceived true "moderate" who is culturally not completely out of step with Chicago (meaning he's pro-choice, sympathetic to gay rights, is comfortable with racial and religious minorities), his ability to appeal downstate makes him tough.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:11:11 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I don't think it does that much though (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                    at least, not to the extent that you're implying.  Remember that the average has to includes races like 2006 and 2010 gov and 2010 sen where we ran very clearly Chicago area politicians.  I'm sure some of the other candidates in that average such as Madigan are thoroughly "Chicago."

                    If we were to run a party line liberal then I'd agree that they wouldn't run that far ahead of Obama, but Enyart ran about where I expected him to given how generic D tends to do here; I had this one as Likely D and he won by 9% which isn't too surprising in a slightly Dem year in a district that would be D+3 or so if you factor in the statewide averages.

                    All of this isn't to say I don't think he didn't run ahead of Obama.  He very clearly did and sure, that's laudable in a presidential year.  But this district isn't ultra Dem because of conservaDems a la WV-03, it's demonstrated that it's quite open to mainstream moderate/liberal Democrats, at least when they're not social liberals.

                    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

                    by sawolf on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:28:07 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

      •  I think a competent Democrat beats him (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'd put him in the same category as Rockefeller in WV this year. I have Rockefeller at Lean R assuming Capito wins the primary.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 04:08:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Kirk is dead man walking my dude! (0+ / 0-)

        You really think he'll win re-election in a presidential year? I'm amazed you brung up Massachusetts as a comparison, because most people knew if Warren got into the race, and as the race developed, Brown was going to be done, soon or a later. And that's exactly what happened.

        I see Duckworth or Bustos being the senate candidate for the Dems.

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 04:18:15 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  fastest growing state gdps in 2011 (5+ / 0-)

    1. North Dakota at 7.6%
    2. Oregon at 4.7%

    Oregon’s economy is looking up -- and in a recent speech at the Oregon Leadership Summit, Gov. John Kitzhaber counted the ways.

    Unemployment is falling, our credit rating is rising, the state ranks as one of the friendliest to business and just last year, Oregon had "the second fastest growing economy in the nation."

    link

    OR-Gov 2014: Likely Dem on the brink of Safe Dem

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 04:13:36 PM PST

    •  Of course, there are a lot of things (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, MichaelNY

      to pick and choose from:

      We asked Duy if he could suggest another measurement that might provide a fuller picture -- he suggested the rate of job growth. Fortunately, this just came up in the state’s most recent revenue forecast. According to that report, which based its numbers on figures from the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, Oregon ranks 26th overall in that category. Said another way: We’re perfectly average.
      Alternately, there's median personal income growth, employment to population ratio, traditional unemployment rates...that random survey of his businessman friends Scott Walker quoted at the RNC.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:17:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Average employment growth + high GDP growth = (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        growth in higher income jobs.

        I hope; therefore, I can live.

        by tietack on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:05:42 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  As James' link suggests (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          85%! of Oregon's growth came from "total manufacturing", apparently some of which was tech manufacturing.  (I've sometimes felt like the national image of manufacturing is a bit too stuck in "hardhats and assembly lines" if that makes sense.)

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:16:20 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oddly (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            in his 2010 campaign Kitzhaber said we need to invest more in high tech, we're too dependent on manufacturing.  Odd, because most of our high tech stuff is in manufacturing.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:24:31 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's the difference between high-tech services (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              and high-tech manufacturing.

              None of the dot coms in the Pearl (downtown Portland) or the inner east side (akin to Brooklyn) are manufacturing -- though they are creating. For example, local Droid/iPhone app companies are growing like mad. Several local productivity app companies have (or are about to go) IPO'd. (e.g. Tripwire, Jive, Puppet, Simple Finance).

              They design products as if they were manufacturers. The meetings I've been in for my new firm remind me of the manufacturing status meetings I used to do for that airplane company further north. The products are just digital. It's just that all of the cost (and profit) are in design and support.

              I hope; therefore, I can live.

              by tietack on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:16:23 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Wasn't it you who said that Oregon (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      not only didn't restrict the rights of workers but actively expanded them in the last few years, becoming even friendlier to unions? Wonder how that contrasts with Wisconsin and Indiana.

      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

      by bjssp on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:21:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  yep in 2009 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, MichaelNY

        when I was interning in the state senate we passed a ban on captive audience meetings-meetings that the boss decides are mandatory even if they are not business related, for the purpose of lecturing their workers on religion, politics, or why unions are evil and they shouldn't vote to join one.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:34:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Is that all? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I'd be very interested in seeing a more thorough, technical/academic comparison of how certain states compare, if there's anything beyond what the statistics tell us. It'd be particularly interesting to see a state that's implementing many right-wing policies and the states that either aren't or are going in the opposite direction, if there are any.

          I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

          by bjssp on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:51:13 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think in the previous session (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, MichaelNY

            the Democrats passed card check certification for public employees.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:07:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Tommy Thompson wants to be UW football coach (4+ / 0-)

    Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 04:22:01 PM PST

  •  Good evening from a hospital bed (23+ / 0-)

    I managed to land myself in the hospital at work today. Took a face full of cyanide. Good times. Hopefully they release me tonight, because I do so hate hospitals.

  •  Mississippi congressional districts average PVI (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Now that some states have started to certify their results, I've started to update the 4 cycle average PVI on ones that had no downballot statewide races this year.  This is what I've got for Mississippi's congressional districts, using all statewide races from 2006-2011 outside of president:
    Photobucket
    For the 2nd and 3rd I had to estimate the impact of the county splits but it's relatively small.

    As you can see, Obama really overperformed in the 2nd which is completely unsurprising given how much he drove up black turnout.  Interestingly, he underperformed enough in the 1st and overperformed enough in the 3rd that, despite Obama doing better in the 3rd, the 1st was more friendly to local Dems.

    Needless to say, I don't see us picking up the 1st, 3rd, or 4th anytime soon.  These are all quite red districts.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:11:22 PM PST

    •  of course the 2nd best D district is the one (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      where the Dems didn't run a candidate because their nominee withdrew and their replacement declined the offer.

      MS1: Romney 63, Nunnelee 60
      MS2: Romney 33, Marcy 30
      MS4: Romney 68, Palazzo 64

      So at least the 1st and 4th are Red districts where the Mormon Presidential nominee outperforms the Mississippi Republicans.

      Also, Harper won 80/20, but against a Reform Party nominee.

      MS1 has a NE-MS Republican and DeSoto always votes Republican.
      MS3 has Rankin County and no real good population base to challenge him.

      MS4: Palazzo was well below his average in Harrison and Jackson Counties. But it'd take a serious scandal and a credible opponent to dislodge him.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:04:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  While the third appears friendlier than 1 and 4 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        both 1 and 4 had Democratic representatives recently. 3 has no recent history of such.

        Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

        by R30A on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:15:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  the 3rd's percentage of Dems (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          are people who'd vote Dem almost every time. While the 3rd's percentage of Rs who vote R every time is probably a majority, if not more. Depending on the results of a Jim Hood election

          The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

          by RBH on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:41:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Right, the Obama results in particular (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY, bumiputera

            show the impact of this district having a higher black percentage than the other two, yet having a lower average.  It's simply due to whites in the 3rd being more solidly Republican than in the 1st or 4th, although they're still quite Republican in both of those districts.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

            by sawolf on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:50:38 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Happy Birthday to me (22+ / 0-)

    For those who aren't friends with me on Facebook, today is my birthday. I'm spending it writing multiple essays. One is due tomorrow and another is due on Monday but I have to present on it tomorrow. Yay! for procrastination.

    In other news, today is also the day prohibition was repealed. I wish I knew that on my 21st! It would have had more meaning.

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:25:43 PM PST

  •  Jack Donaghy recently said his PAC is called (12+ / 0-)

    Americans for an American America.

    Some of you may recall that in an open thread many months ago which had the question: whats the best name for a super pac?  I won the thread with "Americans for a More American America."

    Myself and Jack Donaghy: separated at birth?

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:39:30 PM PST

  •  Did some pres by CA-AD number crunches in OC (4+ / 0-)

    Easy to see why Quirk-Silva won, of the 2 party share, Obama got 53% in AD-65.

    Some definite ar seats dems should try to attack in 2014 would be AD-72 and AD-74.

    In AD-72, which contains westminister, Fountain Valley and Seal Beach, Obama got 47.7% of the vote.  We oddly don't have a dem assembly baseline here though, because two republicans won in the top tow primary this year.  It will be interesting to see if this seat gets targeted by the state party in 2014.

    In AD-74, which contains Irvine, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach and Laguna Beach (oddly reminiscent of the old CA-48 to be honest), Obama received 46.3% of the vote.  Of course, this is more of a long shot, but Irvine is rapidly becoming more democratic, so it may be a second tier Assembly race in 2014.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:45:29 PM PST

  •  Jenni Dye's suprise revealed (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I mentioned yesterday that Dane County Supervisor Jenni Dye, a key figure in the anti-Walker protests last year, had a surprise for us.

    Heeeeeeeeeeeere it is:

    Hawk Sullivan is running for a seat on the Madison, Wisconsin city council. I don't know much about Sullivan.

    I was expecting a MUCH bigger announcement than that. Jenni is a good friend of mine, in fact, she probably duped me into thinking it something big was going to happen, because she likes to mess with my mind.

    Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:47:57 PM PST

  •  A poll currently in the field in Arkansas (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    is testing Asa Hutchinson, Dustin McDaniel, Bill Halter, and Steve Womack.

  •  MI: Begun, the Union Wars Have (7+ / 0-)

    The bastards have finally done it; they are going to declare total war against the middle class in the birthplace of the modern labor movement:

    LANSING — Democrats in the Michigan Legislature today vowed a fierce fight if Republicans proceed with right-to-work legislation during the current lame-duck session.

    “This is a pivotal moment in Michigan’s history,” Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer, D-East Lansing, said at a news conference at the Capitol.

    “If they declare war on the middle class … no one should be surprised if the whole environment at the Capitol changes.”

    Expect legislation introduced, tomorrow.
    •  Why during the lame duck session? (4+ / 0-)

      Does it get harder next session?  Thankfully, MI has the ballot initiative process if need be.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:46:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not yet... (3+ / 0-)

      Both House and Senate leaders said that nothing has been decided as of yet, and they are still figuring out whether and how to proceed.  It seem that Snyder and Randy are still skittish, as they should be.

      I don't know what's going to happen.  Political reporting in Michigan sucks ass.  They don't have anyone like Jon Ralston over there.  Snyder is all about weasel words, although it's pretty clear that the house leader Bolger is the one who's pushing this and has been pushing this for some time.  It seems that unlike in Ohio, where the Senate tells the house to fuck off all the time, they are afraid to stand in the way if the house votes on anything.

      Still, it doesn't look good if the union folks are protesting outside.  When they were quiet last week, we knew that deals were being made.  Perhaps there is still a deal brewing--Snyder is set to unveil his new emergency manager proposal tomorrow.

      I am very nervous about this.  People are assuming that a citizens veto would be easy, but that's what they said about prop 2.  Once this is for sure, the prop 2 vote had nothing to do with these actions.  It's just a convenient excuse for the right.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:36:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It would be much more like 2011's Ohio Question 2 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MetroGnome, LordMike, MichaelNY

        as far as referendum go

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:41:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  A new EM law? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        Didn't he learn from Kasich? When you lose a citizen's veto, shut up and put up.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:42:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  New EM Law (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, LordMike, MichaelNY

          From what I understand, the new law they are thinking up actually assuages a lot of fears by the opponent of the original law.  It would let municipalities vote for their poison instead of it being unilaterally applied.  So, the governor could call an "emergency", but instead of just forcing an EM he or she would schedule an election and the voters of the municipality would be able to choose from a consent agreement, an emergency manager, or municipal bankruptcy.

          Truth is, Michigan already had a version of this law that many people begrudgingly accepted, the problem didn't come until Snyder beefed the thing up so much that it became a totally unaccountable program.

          I agree, though, policy-wise, what would be best is to simply let the current EFM law do its work like it has for years.  They can tweak it, but all of this power to unilaterally remove municipal councils and mayors and breaking union contracts is ridiculous and undemocratic.

      •  I should emphasize that those statements... (0+ / 0-)

        ...came this evening, so they are fresh.  It's really hard to get info on this situation 'cos the Michigan media sucks so badly, and the political bloggers up there are really behind on the stories.  It doesn't make it easier when Snyder keeps talking out of both sides of his mouth.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:42:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Nope (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          The News already reported in the evening that they were ready to pull the trigger, today, and were only kept away from it because Democrats used a rule that forced them to read the bill three times to delay it, so they are going to try, tomorrow.

          BTW, the media is pretty poor, but it's not horrible.  Usually, you'll find pretty regular evening updates of movement at the websites of the Detroit News and Free Press, as well as MLive.  There is also a capitol newspaper, but it's a paysite (MIRS).

          This thing is a done deal.  The only question is how many more legal and legislative tricks Dems have in the bag and how big they can get the crowds before weeks end.

          •  That's not what this story said dated today... (0+ / 0-)
            Majority Leader Randy Richardville told reporters after the Senate adjourned for the day that no decisions had been made.

            "There's discussions that have gone on. They've gotten more complex," Richardville said, though he would not provide details or a timetable for when the issue might be decided.

            Ari Adler, spokesman for House Speaker Jase Bolger, said there appeared to be enough support from GOP members to gain passage, although he declined to provide a specific number of committed votes. Still, he said, there's "nothing for legislators to look at" yet, only ideas of what such measures might look like.

            Adler said Bolger, Snyder and Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville are "in contact continuously" and seeking agreement on whether to proceed.

            "There are layers of decisions that have to be made," he said. "The first decision (is), 'Do we go forward or not?' Once you have that, the others will fall like dominoes."

            Read more: http://www.seattlepi.com/...

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:54:24 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's why I said (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              Look at the Detroit News website or the other ones.  The information is out there if you want it.

              •  I've looked at all the Detroit papers... (0+ / 0-)

                and MIRS and MLive... and everyone is offering speculation, but no hard facts.  There was no bill introduced today.  That is the only fact we know.  Everything else is speculation.  they "expect" a bill to be introduced tomorrow.  Well, they "expected" a bill to be introduced last Thursday, too, and it didn't happen.  No one has come out and said a bill is being introduced.

                The lack of information on this situation is maddening beyond belief.  Are there no insiders in Michigan politics?  Apparently not.

                GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                by LordMike on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:18:39 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  If Snyder wants re-election he won't sign off on (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      this, but if he has Presidential plans in 2016 he might just do it.

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:16:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  If he doesn't win re-election, 2016 is moot... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...and even if he signs it, since his half-hearted weseliness about it will not help him in a primary.  He's not acting like a true believer.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:43:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yep (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        The Republicans will definitely nominate another fauxderate technocrat former blue-state governor from Michigan.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:18:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Please (5+ / 0-)

        No man the voice he has and that uncharasmatic is ever going to make it close to the presidency in this age.  Plus, this guy loathes politics.  He hates being governor, let alone having ambitions for higher office.  That's probably the only genuine thing about the guy.

        •  If he loathes politics (0+ / 0-)

          why is he Governor?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:08:34 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Probably (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, sacman701, MichaelNY

            Probably same reason folks like Romney run: they are "fixers" with egos thinking that the tools they posess in fixing companies can be translated into fixing governments.  He reminds me so much of Dick Devos (who ran in 2006) and Romney it's not even funny, with the only difference being that Snyder is even less truly ideological in how he approaches things.  

            I despise how this guy has run the government up and down - hell, if I could vote to recall him, I would in a hot minute - but he's not some secret culture warrior as some of the folks who come in as "fixers" turn out to be; he's an arrogant businessman pushing bullshit corporate jargon like "relentless positive action" and who thinks that implementing "best practices" will magically turn the state around.

  •  Donnie Trotter (0+ / 0-)

    Isn't he the one who got into a physical altercation with Obama when the two served in the state senate together?

    Plus, I thought Chicago banned guns in the city. Or does he live in the suburbs?

    I hope someone else wins the primary.

  •  CA CD04 (0+ / 0-)

    CA CD04, counties not on Obama by CD

    amador
    http://www.co.amador.ca.us/...
    final official results

    obama        6830
    romney        10281
    others         484
    total           17595

    writeins?

    sos matches county numbers

    http://vote.sos.ca.gov/...
    aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
    calaveras
    http://elections.calaverasgov.us/...
    official results

    obama        8670
    romney      12363
    other            827
    total          21860

    writeins included

    http://vote.sos.ca.gov/...

    secretary of state office has 659 other, Writins 168 plus 659 equals 827

    rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
    el dorado
    http://www.edcgov.us/...
    official final results

    obama       35166
    romney      50973
    other           2336
    total          88475

    writeins?
    secretary of state has same total, noninclusive of writeins
    http://vote.sos.ca.gov/...
    rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
    tuolumne
    official results

    http://portal.co.tuolumne.ca.us/...

    http://portal.co.tuolumne.ca.us/...

    Obama           9998
    Romney        13880
    Other               880

    Total            24758
    secretary of state site has 730
     county includes writein 150, 150 plus 730 is 880

  •  Ohio House Election results by county (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, jncca

    Just put this together. For split counties, I added up the results for all the Rs or Ds in the county.

    Boehner (SW OH) and Fudge were unopposed, and Fudge got more votes than Boehner (by 12K-ish).

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:45:04 PM PST

    •  also gotta give Ashtabula County a trophy (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, James Allen, MichaelNY

      for voting for Dale Blanchard over David Joyce for some reason.

      Counties that went Obama but gave Rs more votes than Ds for the House: Hamilton, Lawrence, Montgomery, Sandusky, Wood

      Counties that went Romney but gave Ds more votes than Rs for the House: Belmont, Jefferson, Monroe, Pike, Scioto

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:44:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  correction (0+ / 0-)

        made a typo on the Lawrence County thing. Disregard.

        The NameYouCanTrust for OH2 did live in Pike County, so he won that area of OH2 over Wenstrup.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:48:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I'll probably repost this in the morning, but... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Tyler R, MichaelNY, James Allen

    I was leafing through congressional results, and I didn't realize that in KS-03, the bluest district in which Democrats completely failed to field a candidate (Sen. McCain won it 49.9 to 48.8) this year, Libertarian Some Dude Joel Balam won 31.4% of the vote. Considering Balam was basically a protest vote, that's actually a rather hefty number of KS-03 voters who refused to pull the lever for Rep. Kevin Yoder.

    By way of comparison, Balam received the same percentage of the vote as did Rep. Mike Pompeo's Democratic opponent in KS-04 -- not a seat that was on anyone's radar this year, but a seat some Democrats had hoped to contest in 2010.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 01:08:54 AM PST

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