Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.

9:51 AM PT: Pres-by-CD: We have fourteen more districts for you today, including all nine from the state of Arizona. Note that for CA, IL, and IN, we've already calculated a bunch of districts, so the seats listed in parentheses only refer to those which are new in this update:

Arizona (statewide)

California (CA-11, CA-15)

Illinois (IL-15)

Indiana (IN-04, IN-05)

Arizona gives us a nice insight into the different trends of minority-heavy districts vs. heavily white districts. Obama saw some improvement in the two Hispanic-majority districts (Grijalva's AZ-03 and Pastor's AZ-07), including a whopping seven-point bump in the central Phoenix-based 7th (from 65 percent Obama to 72 Obama now). The other three Democratic seats held about even, with AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) and AZ-09 (Sinema) swinging slightly towards us and AZ-02 (Barber) swinging slightly against.

We've also got results from California's Contra Costa County (alliteration!), which provides no surprises; both CA-11 (George Miller) and CA-15 (Eric Swalwell) remain strongly Democratic (as is characteristic of the Bay Area) at more than two-thirds Obama. On the flipside, we have two Indiana districts, both of which are solidly Republican (and represent a sizeable downturn from 2008 for the president). Also on that note is IL-15, where a combination of the ebbing of Obama's home state effect and the Republican trend in of downstate Illinois made for an 8.6 point swing away from the POTUS, the second largest swing we've calculated thus far (after UT-01).

10:09 AM PT: DSCC: Senate Democrats have gotten their man: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet will serve as the chair of the DSCC for the very challenging 2014 cycle, while Guy Cecil will remain as executive director for another two years. Bennet's name was at the top of a short list of possible chiefs, but he won't have an enviable job: Democrats are defending 20 seats, many on very difficult turf, while Republicans only have to protect 13, which are all safe or close to it. But Bennet, who was first appointed to the Senate in 2009 after Ken Salazar resigned to become Interior Secretary, proved to be an adept fundraiser and squeaked out a narrow win against exceptionally difficult odds in 2010. Now, though, he doesn't have just one race to worry about—he's got 33.

11:12 AM PT: NY-St. Sen: Gaze upon the horror: Renegade Democrats in the New York state Senate have, at last, come to an appalling power-sharing agreement with the Republicans, handing control to the GOP even though they represent a minority in the chamber. Power will formally rotate back and forth between Republican Sen. Dean Skelos and "Independent" Democratic Sen. Jeff Klein, whose band of rogues just added a fifth member in the form of Sen. Malcolm Smith. Remarkably, Smith used to be the Senate majority leader until he was deposed after two now-extinct Dems were bought off by the GOP. Indeed, disgust at Smith's leadership was allegedly why Klein formed the IDC in the first place; the fact that they're letting him into the clubhouse now sure looks like proof that Klein is only interested in power.

In any event, Colin Campbell has Skelos's press release, which contains the precise details of this arrangement:

Under the unprecedented agreement, the Independent Democratic Conference will be formally recognized as a third, permanent Senate conference. Senator Klein and Senator Skelos will assume the roles of Conference Leader for their respective conferences and will administer joint and equal authority over (1) the daily senate agenda (a/k/a the "Active List," which lays out which bills will be voted on each day), (2) the state budget, (3) appointments to state and local boards, and (4) leadership and committee assignments for their respective conferences.

Under the agreement, coalition leaders will need to work together to lead the Senate forward. The new agreement will also provide for a process by which the title of Temporary President will alternate between the two conference leaders every two weeks. Therefore, the role of the temporary president will be constitutionally fulfilled at all times.

As a reminder, candidates with a "(D)" after their names won 33 seats this November, while Republicans only won 30. But the five members of the IDC, as well as a sixth conservative Democrat (Simcha Felder), have all elected to side with the GOP, even though I doubt that's what they were elected for.

11:53 AM PT: DNC: While the Democratic Party won't formally pick its leadership until January, President Obama has asked Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz to stay on as DNC chair—and DNC members pretty much always go along with the president's wishes.

12:03 PM PT: MA-Sen: Elizabeth Warren's victory was about as big a get as liberals could hope for, but now here's the cherry on top: Harry Reid will reportedly name Warren to the Senate Banking Committee, an appointment that progressive organizations like Daily Kos had pushed for. Warren of course rose to prominence thanks to her tough stance on Wall Street corruption, so it's hard to imagine a more ideal perch for her to continue her advocacy on behalf of ordinary consumers.

12:44 PM PT: Pennsylvania: Here we go again. Last year, you may recall that some Pennsylvania Republicans, led by state Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi, tried to push through a scheme that would award the Keystone State's electoral votes not on the basis of the popular vote (as has been done since time immemorial) but instead by congressional district. It was a naked power grab, seeing as the GOP had a free hand in drawing the state's new congressional map to its exact liking. That would have cut badly into the electoral votes Obama was sure to win, since he was always expected to carry Pennsylvania.

Now Pileggi is back with a new plan—with a twist. Instead of dividing up the state's EVs by CD, he wants to award them based on the statewide popular vote, with an extra two for the winner. As PoliticsPA's Keegan Gibson observes, that would have given Obama 12 electoral votes and Mitt Romney eight, as opposed to the 20 which all went into the president's pocket. This wouldn't have affected the national outcome, but in a tighter race, it's easy to see how it might. And seeing as Republicans haven't carried Pennsylvania since 1988, there's no question about which party this move would benefit. Hopefully, though, Pileggi's latest hijinks will go about as far as his last effort did: nowhere.

12:57 PM PT: And let's not forget the blame supposedly Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo bears here, too. Cuomo not only endorsed Republican senators for re-election but he also refused to say which party he preferred to see control the Senate—even after Dems won a surprise majority on election day. It's further proof that Cuomo, despite occasional departures like gay marriage, is deeply anti-progressive and has little interest in being a Democrat. And if there's a silver lining, it's that abandoning your party (and progressive ideals) at a moment of extreme need like this ought to badly hurt Cuomo with presidential primary voters, should he make the mistake of seeking the brass ring.

1:04 PM PT: And a report in Crain's even claims (according to an unnamed source) that Klein "has been running ideas past Mr. Cuomo before moving forward." I certainly believe it.

1:15 PM PT: Census: Every ten years, tons of municipalities challenge the Census Bureau's population counts, always arguing that tons of people were missed. These claims are rarely very successful, but the city of Houston did just score a win, after a fashion. Saying that the bureau had used incorrect boundaries when it ran the numbers, Houston managed to get a grand total of 812 people added to its rolls. Why even mention something like this, in such a large city? Because those 812 citizens formally pushed Houston past the 2.1 million mark, which means that under local law, the city council can now be expanded to include more seats. Every vote—and every person—really does count!

1:39 PM PT: GA-Sen: PPP has a broad variety of different numbers based on various what-if scenarios pertaining to a primary challenge of GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss, but the bottom line is that he's vulnerable. He only sports a 45-36 approval rating among Republican primary voters, and by a 43-38 margin, the same people prefer "somebody more conservative"—aka Republican Jesus—as the party's 2014 Senate nominee.

Of course, the problem is always finding that savior, but would you believe that the person who most resembles Republican Jesus is... Herman Cain? Yep, it's true! The Hermanator has a gaudy 68-20 favorability score with Republicans and would beat Chambliss 50-36 in a direct head-to-head. Unfortunately, Cain recently said he wouldn't run, but hey, there's a sketchy report on Twitter saying PPP's numbers have him reconsidering, so yeah, awesome!

Incidentally, PPP also tested a whole variety of other figures in two-ways with Chambliss: Reps. Paul Broun, Tom Price, and Allen West, as well as former SoS Karen Handel and conservative blogger Erick Erickson, who, like Cain, has already said he wouldn't run. (West has also said he has no desire to move from Florida back to his native Georgia.) Chambliss crushes each of them with 50 percent or more except for West, whom he beats 47-26. In a never-gonna-happen kitchen sink primary, though, Cain still leads with 36, versus 23 for Chambliss, and pretty much bupkes for everyone else.

As for the general election, Chambliss does pretty well against a variety of hypothetical Democrats despite an overall 38-41 job approval score—but I should caution that all of these names are extremely hypothetical:

45-45 vs. ex-Sen. Max Cleland

48-40 vs. ex-Gov. Roy Barnes

50-37 vs. Rep. John Barrow

52-37 vs. Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed

52-34 vs. state Sen. Jason Carter (grandson of Jimmy)
None of these candidates have expressed any interest, and indeed, Barrow (who just won a tough re-election fight) has specifically said he won't run. Cleland is 70 and turned down the opportunity to avenge his 2002 loss once before. Barnes was persuaded to come out of retirement to run for governor in 2010 but hey, it was 2010 and so he lost, something that probably doesn't make him eager for another bid. Reed or Carter could be interesting, but it seems doubtful that either would take the plunge.

But what if... what if Chambliss lost the primary? Tom Jensen tested Price, who seems like the toughest realistic insurgent, against this same suite of Dems as a possible stand-in for what a post-Saxby world might look like. Thanks to his lower name rec, Price indeed performs much worse:

39-47 vs. Cleland

40-46 vs. Barnes

40-38 vs. Barrow

43-38 vs. Reed

42-36 vs. Carter
The Democrats, though, don't perform much better (just looking at their raw shares, not the margin), so I think Price would still be the favorite, thanks to the state's Demographic lean. But a nasty GOP primary could badly damage the eventual victory, even Chambliss. And hell, if Herman Cain somehow won, I'd say anything would be possible in the general election. So note to Tom: Please test Hermano against some Dems next time! I'll even buy you a pizza!

1:59 PM PT: P.S. Scratch one more name off the list: Newt Gingrich says he has "explicitly no interest" in running against Chambliss.

2:25 PM PT: OH-Gov: Not sure why this is surfacing only now: Dem Rep. Tim Ryan (OH-13) was arrested in August for public intoxication in Lexington, Virginia, though the charges were dismissed on Tuesday (which is obviously how some enterprising someone found out about it). Ryan confirms the incident, but no further details are available. While not exactly the greatest thing you can add to your resume, this hardly seems like a disqualifier for a further run for office, and indeed, Ryan has said he's considering a bid for governor. But Shira Toeplitz notes that in a story she wrote in early September—shortly after the arrest, but long before it was made public—sources told her that Ryan "started to notify Democrats a couple of weeks ago that he doesn't want to run statewide next cycle." So perhaps this factored into his thinking? Like I say, though, this is pretty small potatoes, unless there's more to it that we don't know.

2:33 PM PT: IA-Gov: No kidding: Former Dem Gov. Chet Culver, who swept into office with an almost 10-point victory in 2006 then was promptly swept out in 2010 by a similar margin, is apparently considering a comeback bid. That's according to his former communications director, who says "I don't think it's any secret he's looking at it." Well, while it may not be a secret to everybody, it's at least news to me, since I had no idea Culver was thinking about a rematch against the guy who beat him four years ago, Republican Terry Branstad.

That's because Culver seemed to leave office deeply unpopular—a June PPP poll (PDF) from that year had him at a painful 28-56 job approval rating. I'd be curious to see if his numbers have rebounded since then, but I'm thinking we may want to go with another option for 2014.

3:02 PM PT: MO-08: The National Journal mentions a couple Republicans who could succeed soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, attorney John Tyrrell and Cape Girardeau Sheriff John Jordan, in addition to the big pile of bigger names that's already swirling about. So to get a field for the full state of play, you'll want to check out this piece in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, which features quotes from a number of prominent figures, like Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder and state party executive director Lloyd Smith, who both say on the record that they are interested in the job.

Amusingly, there's also one guy who says he isn't interested—on the Democratic side. That would be outgoing Rep. Russ Carnahan, who lost a redistricting-induced primary earlier this year. Carnahan's only virtue is a modicum of name recognition, since he'd be a lousy fit in what is a basically hopeless district anyhow. (Believe it or not, Rusty made his first bid for office in the 8th, all the way back in 1990. He got stomped by Emerson's late husband, Bill, 57-43.)

And one side-note: If Kinder were tapped as the GOP nominee by local Republican officials (there's no primary), and presumably went on to win, that would leave the LG spot open. In that scenario, it looks like Dem Gov. Jay Nixon would be able to appoint a replacement (though that's not 100% certain), which would give Democrats every single statewide office in Missouri.

3:18 PM PT: AZ-09: Two also-rans in the GOP primary are saying they are interested in making another go at Rep.-elect Kyrsten Sinema in 2014: businessman Martin Sepulveda and retired Air Force Lt. Col. Wendy Rogers. Rogers took 21 percent in the primary and Sepulveda 20, while the ultimate winner, Vernon Parker, only scored 22, so it's easy to imagine why they both want to take another shot. But the district is going the wrong way for Republicans: Obama improved about half a point here from 2008, even though statewide he dropped almost two percent. With a full term under her belt and no primary of her own to worry about, Sinema (who defeated Parker by about four points) should be tougher to beat two years from now.

4:01 PM PT: FreedomWorks: Well whaddya know: Ex-Rep. Dick Armey, the public face of the Koch brothers' front group FreedomWorks, has resigned his post—and it sure doesn't sound amicable, seeing as he wants to the organization to stop using his name in any way. Armey's refusing to explain his departure, beyond calling his differences "matters of principle," and adding, "It's how you do business as opposed to what you do." But don't feel too bad for ol' Dick: He's somehow getting an absurd $8 million payday out of all this—a remarkable sum for a group that spent all of $19 million on actual elections in 2012.

And it's not just Armey who's leaving: Several other top staffers are bailing as well. It makes you wonder if a mostly grafty shop like FreedomWorks will even continue to exist in the future. Not that I think it would matter much either way: In 2010, they spent a paltry half a million, leading me to wonder why anyone ever pays attention to them in the first place. It's starting to look like fewer and fewer people will in the future.

4:13 PM PT: House: Shira Toeplitz scans the horizon for potential 2012 House candidates who might be interested in trying again, based on a mixture of public statements, unnamed sources, and speculation. For Republicans, she suggests Martha McSally (AZ-02), Allen West (FL-18), Bob Dold (IL-10), Bobby Schilling (IL-17), Richard Tisei (MA-06), Frank Guinta (NH-01), and Mia Love (UT-04). On the Dem side, she points to Jose Hernandez (CA-10), Pete Aguilar (CA-31), Val Demings (FL-10), Christie Vilsack (IA-04), Brendan Mullen (IN-02), and Mark Critz (PA-12). Most of these folks lost by very small margins, so rematch attempts would (at least on paper) make a certain amount of sense for at lease some of them. Hernandez has specifically said he's looking at another bid, but he might wait until 2016, when presidential-year turnout will hopefully maximize the Democratic vote.

4:23 PM PT: Ah, now Politico's offering an explanation: Armey apparently was unhappy with Matt Kibbe, FW's president, whom he alleges tried to pad his pockets by using the organization's resources to write a book, then claiming he'd written it all himself, a shenanigan Armey reportedly feared might jeopardize the group's tax-exempt status.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  MI PVI and the what it means for House seats (7+ / 0-)

    So based on the amazing PVI work that some people are doing (thank you) it looks like the Democrats should have a couple of house seats in play in Michigan in the next couple of years. Based on Obama's numbers, maybe the Republicans dummymandered themselves in MI.

    The MI-01 comes back at 45.3% Obama and this is a rural Democratic area that Obama seems to be doing poorly at but Democrats have historically won in. I know the Democrats just lost two close elections in a row for this seat but it seems attainable.

    MI-06 came in at 48.83% for Obama. Unlike in the 1st Obama seems to lead average Democrats here. I don't know why that is (maybe Upton is just that popular?) but the Democrats seem like they should be able to make a good run here if they could get a grade 1 candidate.

    MI-07 was 47.92% for Obama and you have to believe that against crazy Walberg any decent Democrat would be able to run 3-4 points ahead of Obama here. I really think the key to winning this district is to get a candidate from Monroe where they can just run up the tally on Walberg. Walberg's support for Great Lakes drilling should be a good local issue that a good candidate could use especially in the Ann Arbor suburbs and the part of the district near Lake Erie.

    MI-08 went 47.97% for Obama. This has to be the biggest shock for me. The Livingston and Oakland area is traditionally Republican area. I don't know why Obama did this well here but honestly I don't think the Democrats have a really good chance of knocking out Rogers any time soon. I honestly think dumping money into this district would be equivalent to Republicans spending money in NJ against Menendez.

    MI-11 went 46.94% for Obama. That alone doesn't look too promising but remember this is where reindeer enthusiast Bentivolio both won (permanent seat) and lost (partial term) a CD. Bentivolio only scrapped 50.8% in a Presidential year in a district that should be as sold on Romney as any in Michigan. One would assume that had Dr. Taj been a different color or was easier to understand, this would be a Democratic seat. I really am expecting a solid Republican to primary Bentivolio so the Democrats should have someone waiting in the winds just in case it turns into cat fud.

    As of know the MI-03 (Amash), MI-04 (Camp) and MI-10 (Miller) haven't come in yet but honestly I don't think we'd see anything too uplifting. However, even without those districts I'd say Michigan should offer the DCCC 2 prime targets for 2014 and maybe 3 or 4 depending on the various circumstances (like Upton getting tea partied or running for Senate if Levin decides to retire).

    (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

    by kman23 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 06:45:10 AM PST

    •  You might (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      You might want to consider these numbers against 2008, too.

      BTW, Jackson is the biggest city in MI-7.  While Dems need to do better in Monroe, what they really need to do is drive up turnout in Jackson and it's immediate suburban townships.

      •  Jackson is the biggest city not the biggest county (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        However, my point is more that Walberg is maxed out in the western half of the district already and that running up the margins in Monroe in the eastern half is easier IMHO than doing so in Jackson where Walberg won (county of Jackson) in 2012.

        (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

        by kman23 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 06:58:20 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Jackson (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          In this district, though, isn't Jackson really the only area from which you could field a popular Democrat?  What kind of Dems are ever elected out of Monroe County with enough name-recognition to excite folks in the west part of the district?  In my mind, this district is based in the west, but the Democratic base out that way isn't so strong/fervent that they'll just automatically vote for somone out on Lake Erie.

          •  Monroe (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Woody, lordpet8, bumiputera, MichaelNY

            The mayor and board of Monroe are non-partisan if memory serves. So out of the 7 of them I'd bet one of them is a Democrat.

            Right now the State Senator is a Republican (majority leader in fact) and I think it's the same in the House. However, Monroe county has like 150k residents. Obama split the district meaning it's an open county and I'm sure it has Democrats that are well known and respected.

            Oddly, the first person I thought of was Debbie Dingell. I'm not sure she'd want to but if she did she'd give Walberg a run. She's connected to the U of M, to Wayne State, and to the auto industry meaning and her husband has been a Congressman forever. It'd be interesting and I doubt she'd run but she could (and Congressman Dingell did represent Monroe until redistricting)

            (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

            by kman23 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:22:07 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Debbie Dingell is going to run for MI-12 (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera, TrueBlueDem, MichaelNY

              Everybody expects that to happen. There should be an epic primary between her and Ann Arbor's State Senator Rebekah Warren.

              Some possible people:

              Kathy Angerer (Former State Rep from Monroe, now a lobbyist for AT&T)
              Pam Byrnes (Former State Rep from Western Washtenaw County)
              Dudley Spade (Former State Rep From Lenawee County, Currently serves in the Snyder administration)

              Unfortunately I don't think any of them will run. If they wanted, they would have ran.

              We just elected three new Democratic State Reps in this district. We might want to invest in one of them.

              Theresa Abed won in Eaton County. She worked really hard after being blown out in 2010.

              Bill Lavoy won a seat in Monroe County. His family is well known there, so he may make a good candidate.

              Finally, we  have Gretchen Driskell from western Washtenaw. She ran a great campaign against a well-liked Republican.

              M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

              by slacks on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:34:13 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Wow. I can't be the only one who assumed (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                slacks, MichaelNY

                Debbie Dingell was about 80 years old. John, you sly dog, you!

                (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

                by TrueBlueDem on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:19:55 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Dingell (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, slacks, bumiputera

                I don't think she'd win a primary against Warren. Ann Arbor (I always label it AA then I realize to 90% of people they'd read that as African Americans) turns out in primaries and I don't Dingell's base is big enough to win a primary against Warren. Also, I think Dingell could be persuaded not to waste either herself or Warren losing in a primary when Dingell could just move south to the 7th.

                I worked for Pam Byrnes in HS and I don't think she's running for anything bigger. She lost a Senate race against Warren and I think it stunted her political growth.

                Angerer would be a good candidate against Walberg. I honestly think lobbying for a company like AT&T isn't good but it's not a career killer.

                (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

                by kman23 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:45:50 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  2008 Michigan PVI is useless (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, WisJohn, MichaelNY

        Obama was more or less uncontested in 2008. He ran up the numbers state wide. I think he was even close to winning (if he didn't outright win) the MI-10 in 2008 which for a Democrat is ridiculous.

        (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

        by kman23 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:00:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Just to expand on the MI-07 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Monroe county (the largest popular country in the 7th in 2012) made up 72k of the 330k votes in the district. Walberg won by all 10k despite holding his own in Monroe losing only by 800 some votes (35k to 36k). If a local Monroe politician could take 50k to 22k (reduced obviously if we're talking 2014 and not 2016) that'd give them a nice 28k lead. A candidate like Walberg wouldn't be able to make that up in the current MI-07 where the 2nd, 3rd and 4th biggest counties by vote are Jackson (where Walberg won by 4k, 36k to 32k), Eaton (where Walberg lost 26k to 27k) and the western Ann Arbor suburbs of Washtenaw (where where he amazingly won 27k to 26k).

      Basically, 3 counties gave Walberg small leads. Hillsdale, Branch and Jackson each gave Walberg 4k vote margins in each. He's as maxed as possible in those western districts where Walberg was a State Rep for 15 years.

      (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

      by kman23 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 06:55:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  MI7 (6+ / 0-)

        I would expect it to trend blue. I think most of its population growth will come from Washtenaw and specifically from younger adults moving near Ann Arbor for work. These are likely to be mostly Dems.

        I also expect MI11 to trend blue just as the old MI9 did in the 00s: a light-red district that shares a long border with deep-blue districts that are losing population.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 08:33:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not just suburban Ann Arbor (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, slacks, BeloitDem

          But, suburban Lansing, too.  Eaton County is trending blue, and I think that as Lansing continues to pick up after the recession, this will help Eaton continue to be the western anchor of the district.

          •  Eaton voted for Obama (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            He took 51%

            (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

            by kman23 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:48:14 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I know (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera, BeloitDem

              I live in Lansing.  The county elected its first Democrat to the state house in decades, the county commission is near back even, I believe, and the biggest community, Delta Township, has a board almost entirely of Dems, I believe.  Maybe I should have been more clear.  It's trending even bluer.  I mean, Obama won it last time, too.  My point was that suburban Ann Arbor isn't the only hope for the Dems in the district.

    •  I think you're being... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      way too optimistic on a few of these.  

      MI-1 is R+5, and MI-11 R+5, looking at 2012 numbers alone.  Historically, this was a PVI that moderate/conservative Democratic incumbents could hold down.  But given the national environment continues to polarize, I'm not sure it's true any more.  Our most right-wing pickup so far was FL-18, which Murphy won by the skin of his teeth against a nutty and tarnished incumbent.  FL-18 was R+4 in 2012.  So you'd need to do a few percent better than Murphy did against West.  Possible?  Sure, but an uphill climb.  

      On the other hand, I'm bullish on MI-6, MI-7, and MI-8 as longer-term possibilities.  All of them are R+3 looking at 2012 numbers alone.  MI-6 will probably stay put there, as there are no major metro areas to diversify (indeed, the district is shrinking).  But MI-7 and MI-8 have a lot of counties where the white population is shrinking and the black population is growing.  Small shifts over the next eight years should be enough.  It will also cause MI-11 to trend left (indeed, the trend should be faster, since it's all suburbs), but since it's starting with a bigger Republican core, I don't think it will quite get there.  

      •  MI-01 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, slacks

        I really think this is a Republican blip. I think as soon as Obama isn't President (or on the ticket, 2012, or had one of his policy's as the biggest issue of the election, 2010) this district swings back.

        My MI-11 comment is basically that the current Congressman is so crazy the Democrats could win this seat if he's as crazy as everyone thinks he is. I don't know how that is being optimistic.

        (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

        by kman23 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:42:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Some of these (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, CF of Aus

        You have bad numbers for MI-1

        MI-1 is R+6 in 2012 alone, and is R+5 all around. Although if you adjust to 50/50 the district is R+2. This correction simply makes your case stronger, I think.

        https://docs.google.com/...

        I agree on the other MI districts, which are R+1, R+3, and R+2 overall with adjusted scores of D+2, R+0, and D+1.

        FL-18 is also moving against us, as is MI-1. Bad trends do not make for good pickups.

        Side Note:

        I know I keep pushing my spreadsheet, and it was pointed out to me by a friend that it might come across as bitchy. I just feel that it is a good resource that we might as well all have access to and utilize because it makes for informed discussion.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:50:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Thank you! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      And thank you for this analysis.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:44:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I won't be misusing campaign funds. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, MichaelNY, Audrid

    Unless there's a very specific reason this is wrong, if I am flying Audrid over to work on my hypothetical campaign in 2016, I will be doing so with a ticket bought far in advance, with my own money. Is that still a misuse of campaign funds, considering it's my own money? Doesn't seem like it.

    If not, we'll figure something out. Seriously, if I am congressman, I'm going to be a true pain in the ass when it comes to ethics and being scandal-free.

    I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

    by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 06:53:00 AM PST

  •  SC-Gov (4+ / 0-)

    Does anyone have any polling evidence that Nikki Haley is in a poor position for re-election?  I found a PPP poll from late 2011 with her approval at 41-43 and a Winthrop University poll from April 2012 with her approval at 37-37.  Seems to me a Republican in an R+8 state with those kind of numbers is in pretty good shape, but I keep hearing she is in deep trouble.  Anyone?  Anyone?  Bueller?  Bueller?

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:30:18 AM PST

    •  The SS# scandal is a big deal (3+ / 0-)

      We'll have to see some fresh numbers reflecting the damage, or lack thereof. If she handles it well and doesn't take much of a ratings hit from something of that magnitude, I don't see her getting beat in 2014.

      (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

      by TrueBlueDem on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:42:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I dont think there has been much polling (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      She will likely face her 2010 opponent, State Sen Vincent Sheheen. It will be a pretty strong challenge, so I think that's why the state lean might not help her, with those approval numbers.

    •  The 2010 results (8+ / 0-)

      Were really weak. I think she won by like 4 pts, in a super red state in a super red year.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:27:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  But how much of that was racism and, more likely (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        markhanna, lordpet8, MichaelNY, tietack

        I think, sexism? How much of that would reappear in 2014?

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:55:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Bj is asking the right questions here (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack
        •  I think it's hard to point to those things... (11+ / 0-)

          ...when she was the teabagger upstart in winning the primary.

          One reality of racists and sexists is that they're selective.  It's not all-or-nothing, they are complicated and layered in their bigotries.  A black or brown Democrat bothers a lot of them, partly or even more significantly because of race, when a black or brown conservative Republican does not bother them at all.

          I'm sure there are plenty of white South Carolina voters who feel racial hostility toward Obama as they fully support Tim Scott and Nikki Haley.  This sort of thing isn't unusual at all.

          Sexism works much the same way.

          It goes back to the racism that was common in my youth, where I knew white people who openly disinguished between "the good ones" among black people and then those they would call the "N" word.  Party affiliation of minorities today is an extension of that.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:24:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  All of that makes sense, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            but it wouldn't surprise me if there were sexism and racism in play. I know I've mentioned this a lot, but an Atlantic article about her win mentioned how, in some areas of the country, one of them being South Carolina, a woman's place is still considered to be in the home. (I can't get over it because it seems so antiquated.) It gets more complicated still when you consider that none of this stuff, should it have been a factor, necessarily means Shaheen wasn't a good candidate.

            It'll be interesting to see what happens in 2014. If, absent some scandal and implosion or a really good year for us, she only scrapes by or even loses, it'll be a sign to me that it was a factor.

            I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

            by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:05:57 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I have a bad feeling... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, bjssp

              ...about Sheheen.  I have a feeling ultimately a conservative Republican state is going to reelect a conservative Republican Governor, and it's not going to be 4 points this next time.  I think Haley and her party somewhat took victory for granted last time for understandable reasons, and after what they know was a closer race than they feel it should've been, they won't make that mistake again.

              I very much hope I'm wrong, but I see Haley beating Sheheen comfortably this next time, even if her job approvals are iffy.  I think there still are a clear majority of voters in SC who prefer a conservative to a centrist.  After all, this is Jim DeMint's state, and if Lindsay Graham gets teabagged I imagine even a crazy lunatic will easily win in November, not unlike Texas this year with Cruz who is no less crazy than Ken Buck or Richard Mourdock but just in a clearly conservative state.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 08:40:16 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Sheheen is pretty strong, and she is not l (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Loved by the legislature. If he can't beat her he goes back to spending the rest of his career as the best player on a losing team. I reckon he can win and will go for broke... she would be favourite but I doubt she trounces him.

                Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

                by CF of Aus on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:21:20 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Haley is EXTREMELY vulnerable (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, pademocrat

      I am SC native and lifelong resident of 49 years, and I can tell you without equivacation that Haley is one of the most vulnerable Governors in the country right now.

      First of all, the numbers you quoted are TERRIBLE to begin with. A blood red state and she is 37-37 approval -disapproval?  Doesn't that say something right there?

      She WILL have at LEAST one and probably TWO major opponents in the primary.   She must first MAKE the runnoff and then win it.  The state treasurer is almost certain to be one of them.  He has a strong following with the Tea Party, which is her base.  They have left her in big numbers already.  

      She has made scores of high profile enemies within her own party, including the former Senate President, now Lt. Governor, the Senate Finance chairman, the State Port Authority Chairman, and many more.    

      I put her chances at re-election at less than 33%.  

      •  and another thing (4+ / 0-)

        The SS# breech affects 3.8 million people and Haley did not disclose that a breech occurred for 16 days.  She appoints the agency head and he has already resigned.  It was disclosed that data was not encrypted and the breech could have been prevented with $25k software.  

         Lots of bad headlines.  

         The national media has been SO out ot lunch on this Governor it is not even funny.  They sing her diversity praises, but everyone here knows she is over her head.    

        Run a poll PPPP and you will find out what is REALLY going on.

      •  Latest Poll shows Haley at 38% approval (0+ / 0-)

        T.6 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nikki Haley is handling her job as Governor of South Carolina?

         All
         Registered Voters
         Voted in 2012 Presidential Election
         Republicans – Including Leaners (Registered Voters only)

        Approve 38.3
         40.0
         40.5
         61.5

        Disapprove 41.3
         42.4
         42.9
         19.0

        Not Sure 19.1
         16.2
         15.4
         17.2

        Refused 1.2
         1.4
         1.2
         2.3

        This is from winthrop University.

    •  Vote for SC in PPP's poll (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, spiderdem

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Daman09 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:59:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY-Sen:Queens Democrat Smith joins Republicans (11+ / 0-)

    http://www.nypost.com/...

    Queens Democrat Malcolm Smith is joining forces with Republicans in a new coalition to run the fractured state Senate, the Post has learned.

    In a stunning move, Smith, the former Senate majority leader, will join the Independent Democratic Caucus, which includes four other renegades who will help keep the GOP in charge.

    •  Doesn't this piss their constituents off? (13+ / 0-)

      I've said it before, but I vote for Democrats in order for Democrats to control the government! It sounds crazy, I know, but... wow. Just wow. F-ing just get along.

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

      by WisJohn on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:55:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Man. (16+ / 0-)

      NY state politics are something else.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:56:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  What the hell is going on here? (17+ / 0-)

      (Maybe all of the Democrats should join the IDC - really fuck with them.)

      One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

      by AUBoy2007 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 08:03:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The only silver lining (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, lordpet8

      is that it appears they have 32 ideological Democrats to 31 ideological Republicans (30 GOP + Felder). If the IDC has power-sharing with Skelos and can bring bills to the floor, it's still a big improvement over 2011-2012.

      (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

      by TrueBlueDem on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 08:29:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have no idea what (6+ / 0-)

        anyone's ideology is here.  

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 08:36:36 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  In New York... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, MichaelNY

          neither party really seems to have one from what I've been able to gather, particularly when it comes to economics.  

          •  I don't know if I agree with that. (0+ / 0-)

            I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

            by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:00:21 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Eh... (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              geoneb, Woody, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

              The state Republicans seem to, for the most part, seem exist to funnel pork-barrel projects to their constituents.  They aren't particularly hostile to public-sector unions, and often court their endorsements.  And of course they do anything they can to perpetuate their own power.  

              Of course there are differences in terms of social issues between the Republicans and the Democrats in the New York State Senate.  But I don't see any evidence that small government Randian claptrap has any real pull in their caucus.  

              •  Oh, I don't disagree that they are more moderate (0+ / 0-)

                than many in Washington, and perhaps even more so than many of their counterparts in surrounding states. I just think that, given the chance, they would do a lot more cutting of government spending and taxes.

                There's been a general shift in how the state parties act, I think, and perhaps New York just hasn't caught up to where other states are.

                I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

                by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:35:06 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  There is a difference (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, tk421

            In general, the Republicans screw New York City and other cities more, and screw renters and the poor more, relative to the rich. Remember that George Pataki was a State Senator before he became Governor. I think most of them are somewhat like him - mild-mannered and not firebreathing, but right of center.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 06:52:52 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  The one time I saw him speak in person (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              he was basically ranting inappropriately about activist judges. It was supposed to be a graduation speech just over a year ago.

              Ok, so I read the polls.

              by andgarden on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:41:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I meant more broadly. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Or maybe more narrowly: I don't have much of a sense of what the policy priorities are of Cuomo vs. the IDC vs. the "regular" Dems vs. the legislative Republicans.  If the regular Dems had a trifecta tomorrow, what would they push for?  This is probably just my own ignorance but I also feel like the lines are less well-drawn than in other states.

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:59:27 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  The silver lining I see is that (0+ / 0-)

        redistricting is not at stake next year.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:22:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why is that a silver lining? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, MichaelNY

          The Senate Dems are trapped in the worst possible map for them. Without Obama turnout in 2014, they can very easily drop back below 30 seats. If they had outright control, Cuomo's independent redistricting commission comes back to life, possibly even for a mid-decade redo.

          (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

          by TrueBlueDem on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:28:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  If it's like pulling teeth to get a majority (0+ / 0-)

            I don't think they'd reopen LATFOR.  If there was precedent in NY, then probably.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:31:57 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  It probably WILL have awful consequences actually. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Remember the Republican sponsored constitutional amendment that Cuomo forced down the throats of Democrats on redistricting?

          It requres being passed by TWO consecutive state legislature votes.  As a refresher.  If the legislature is split things stay the same.  There is a commission appointed by the parties just like now and will continue the three men in a room tradition.  Except that stuff about prisoners being required to vote in the districts they are from rather than the upstate prisons they live in goes away.

          However if the Democrats ever take over.  Then and only then do we get independent redistricting.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:55:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I (8+ / 0-)

      think it's time to make the NY State Senate "non-partisan" like the Nebraska Legislature since obviously Democrats here don't act like Democrats. The NY State Senate Democrats make great advocate for term limits!

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 08:59:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  lol on the IDC! (4+ / 0-)

      Weren't they the ones that hated Smith and never wanted to caucus with him? And now they are stuck in a coalition with him.

      At first I thought this was a crazy plan by Smith to get the ICD to go caucus with dems (cause they won't have to vote him leader anymore) But I guess that's not the case.

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:59:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes. (5+ / 0-)

        Diane Savino specifically mentioned the handling of Monserrate and Espada as being one of the main reasons the IDC was formed.

        Of course the real reason had to do with jealousy and power.  This was probably more important.  Klein (with his girlfriend Savino as a deputy) were in charge of the state DSSC.  After the losses in 2010 the Senate leadership (headed by John Sampson) blamed them for Democratic Party losses.  They in turn blamed the ineptness of the leadership.  After they were replaced they bolted.  Which very much explains why the Democrat they hate the most is not Sampson but someone who wasn't even elected until 2010.  Michael Gianaris.  The guy who replaced Jeff Klein at the state DSCC and who much to their chagrin got (in theory) the Senate majority back.

        Unfortunately I very much suspected they were not even entertaining seriously talking with the Democrats for the last two weeks.  I was chatting with someone I know who is close with Diane.  Before the election he assured me that if the Democrats got enough seats Diane would not stand in the way of a Democratic majority.  He changed his tune to say.

        1) Dean Skelos is not so bad.  While not voting for it he didnt' stand in the way of gay marriage.  He's someone the IDC can work with.

        2) Since the Democrats have not yet decided on who will be their new leader who would the IDC even negotiate with?

        And that will be their spin.  Instead of saying like last time they could not support the Democrats won't replace John Sampson as their leader they are saying they cannot support the Democrats because they might replace John Sampson as leader.

        The guy who really dissapoints me is Simcha Felder.  Why is he not in the IDC like Malcolm Smith getting goodies?  I thought he was smarter than this.  Serves him right for playing his cards too soon.

        I can only hope Diane plans on running for US Congress.  Because I sure as hell don't want her in the State Senate anymore.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:23:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Simcha Felder (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, lordpet8, TrueBlueDem

          He is just really conservative. His topic policy priority is funding for religious schools. Obviously Democrats aren't giving him that, so he joined the Republicans. His reasons for joining Republicans are completely different than the IDC's.

          M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

          by slacks on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:43:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  On the contrary. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            slacks, MichaelNY, kman23

            Democrats have bent over backwards to give Orthodox whatever they wanted in the realm of education including making special education districts of dubious constitutionality just for them.  In this area the only thing Skelos has offered is that he promised larger tuition vouchers.

            Unfortunately THE issue that got them inflamed is gay marriage.  As well as of course Barack Obama being a Kenyan Muslim who wants to destroy Israel.

            Simcha Felder on everything besides social issues (abortion, gay marriage) is actually not all that conservative.  And given the huge number of orthodox Jews on public assistance it would actually be downright silly for him to be.

            Not that hypocrisy has ever stopped folks from teabagging.  But most of the ultra-orthodox leadership is smarter than that.  Though unfortunately a lot of Republicans are smart enough to make sure to emphasize the cuts they want to make are not aimed at them.  Just those with darker skin.

            Due to it being the one area of New York that is overwelmingly ultra-orthodox I'll use Kiryas Joel as an example.

            http://en.wikipedia.org/...

            According 2008 census figures, the village has the highest poverty rate in the nation, and the largest percentage of residents who receive food stamps. More than five-eighths of Kiryas Joel residents live below the federal poverty line and more than 40 percent receive food stamps, according to the American Community Survey, a U.S. Census Bureau study of every place in the country with 20,000 residents or more.

            The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

            by Taget on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 05:42:56 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Doesn't surprise me (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, MichaelNY, Taget

      He was close to running for Mayor of NYC as a Republican. This could just be an attempt to get more Republicans on board. He was also done in Democratic politics anyway. He has nothing to lose.

      M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

      by slacks on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:07:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  So he's on his last term? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

        Good.  This is utter BS and needs to be stopped.  If Espada was still around, I'd see their point, but he's in prison where he belongs so I don't see the harm in having a Dem majority again.  Now, we just have to whittle them down.  Once they get to two, it's logical that they'll dissolve the IDC.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:21:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Possibly (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          I don't think he wants to stay. He was once the majority leader (the coup overthrew him). He isn't getting that back even if the Democrats regain control. He basically had no power left. At least this move gives him some power.

          This goes back to why the IDC was even entertaining a coalition. Democrats cannot control the State Senate with only a one vote majority. Republicans would have to reason to help pass anything, and Democrats would always have one person upset about something.

          M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

          by slacks on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:29:26 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I have to admit... (5+ / 0-)

      ... as much flak as Cuomo gets here for his toleration of a GOP State Senate, I can sort of understsand why. The NY State Senate Democrats are beyond useless.

    •  Adriano Espaillat (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      doesn't criticize the IDC. Many people thought that the IDC was willing to caucus with the Democrats if he was the majority leader.

      He barely lost to Rangel this year. I assume he wants to try again. Does anybody think that his failure to keep the IDC in the fold will hurt him if he runs again?

      M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

      by slacks on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:53:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Mystery: Gov. Jan Brewer’s whereabouts (14+ / 0-)
    Brewer is out of state for a week on official business, but her staff won’t reveal where, according to The Associated Press. Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett, also a Republican, is the state’s acting governor, and certified election results Monday in Brewer’s place.

    Bennett’s office told the AP that Brewer notified them that she would be gone from Sunday morning to Saturday afternoon but didn’t say where she was going.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/...

    Reminds me of Gov. Sanford.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 08:54:29 AM PST

  •  KY-Sen (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueDem, LordMike, lordpet8, askew

    Judd looks serious. Spoke with Gillibrand and is conducting polling. If none of the statewides or a random, non Bruce Lunsford, millionaire make the plunge I guess we could do worse.
    http://www.nydailynews.com/...

    •  Not actual polling (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      opposition research. Although she spoke with a pollster.

    •  A "Hollywood liberal", in Kentucky? Ugh. (8+ / 0-)

      I'd rather have the Kentucky version of Creigh Deeds.

      (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

      by TrueBlueDem on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:11:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would rather Grimes or Edelen make the plunge (7+ / 0-)

        But if we can't get a statewide office holder or Fischer than I am not opposed to Judd. She would at least raise a lot of money and make McConnell spend.

        •  I guess so (6+ / 0-)

          but as a very outspoken pro-choice and environmental advocate, she's DOA in Kentucky. Even if we have to go second or third tier for a candidate, at least run somebody who enough voters will support if McConnell slips, ie. a Demosaur who actually lives in the state.

          (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

          by TrueBlueDem on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:19:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  At least this is happening way early. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, kman23

          I'd MUCH rather have any of the current big shots in the party run. But it's not even 2013 yet, let alone 2014, so I refuse to worry until we get much closer to the election. I'd be amazed if none of the people you mentioned and the others weren't looking into it. If they run, what are the chances Judd gets any traction?

          I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

          by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:42:20 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think she'd evoke enough hatred from (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            working-class white Demosaurs that she'd get pretty roundly stomped in a primary, even outspending her opponent 3 or 4 to 1. She'd need a clown car primary to win, IMO.

            (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

            by TrueBlueDem on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:23:47 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  more likely she'd be unopposed. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              BeloitDem

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:25:32 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Really? (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

                I can see no major Democrat going up against her, but only if all of the big names decline. But then, will there be nobody else with a base--a small town mayor or city councilman, a county executive, a state legislator or something?

                I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

                by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:27:37 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  I think a statewide would be smart enough (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

                to know they could defeat her easily, given the electorate. Or do you think she's waiting on the statewides before jumping in?

                (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

                by TrueBlueDem on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:49:42 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  they wouldn't run (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone, askew

                  if they were going to run we wouldn't be resorting to her.  They would probably defeat her soundly if one of them ran against her, but there is little indication one of them will risk the effort and potential harm from losing a match against McConnell.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:58:38 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  doubt it (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bjssp, MrLiberal, JGibson

              She'd lose the coal counties big but she'd do fine in the rest of the state mostly by virtue of her association with UK basketball, which is the state religion. I'm not being facetious.

              SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:35:05 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  It's not like she's the star player or coach (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                How would her primary against a statewide officeholder play out any differently than Hillary-Obama?

                (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

                by TrueBlueDem on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:54:58 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Your last sentence makes your comment... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem, MichaelNY

                ...honestly jaw-dropping.

                Scotty Baesler was an actual UK basketball star, not just a fan who gets interviewed on TV at halftime like Judd does, and lost an open U.S. Senate seat to crazy Jim Bunning (himself a former All-Star baseball pitcher, but my point stands re UK hoops).

                Even without that example, the notion that there is any transitive property at all from sports fandom to voting behavior is silly.

                Judd would do about the same as Obama just did, winning the same 4 counties and nothing else.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:42:19 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Slight walkback by me, I now see you were... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen, MichaelNY

                  ...responding to a comment on a contested primary, not the general.

                  But my point still stands, Judd being a UK basketball fan will not earn her one single vote in a primary.

                  She might very well win a contested primary, but it will be because she's Ashley Judd and outspends whoever runs against her, not because of UK basketball which isn't worth squat in any election, primary or general.

                  "Basketball is a religion" is too glib, it's really not true.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:44:39 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  name rec (0+ / 0-)

                    Name rec counts for a lot in primaries, and Judd would have a lot less name rec if she weren't so visible at UK games. She'd basically be Rebecca Gayheart (roughly same age, also from KY).

                    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                    by sacman701 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:05:30 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

      •  No you wouldn't (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, MichaelNY

        I live in Virginia, I voted for Deeds in that primary, I watched in horror at what transpired the rest of the way.

        Deeds is Example 1 that ideological centrism is not all that it's cracked up to be as far as voters are concerned.

        Judd will lose big to McConnell, no doubt about that, and it's a bad move for her personally if she wants to have a future in politics beyond just a year or two in the political spotlight.

        But she will not do worse than Deeds, and if anything I bet she at least runs a competent campaign that has dignity.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:31:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Like I said, I'd rather have Alvin Greene (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, SLDemocrat, MichaelNY

        I mean if we are going to put up a joke candidate, let's just make it extremely obvious. No reason to run Judd since she might actually be able to divert money from competitive races.

    •  KY (7+ / 0-)

      The Dems seem to still have a functioning party and a decent bench at the state level there, but the problem is that the benchwarmers all hold state offices of their own and an asswhipping by McConnell could put their future viability in jeopardy. So they're left with a bunch of people with nothing to lose. They can run Judd, who has star power and can raise money but is too liberal and has never run a campaign. They can run a Paul Sadler type, who isn't too liberal and has political experience but won't be able to raise money. They can try to find a Jim Graves type, who can self-fund but has no political experience. Whoever they get, it adds up to likely R.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:26:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think McConnell will be beat anyways... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MrLiberal, JGibson

      So having somebody who can go hard at him on issues without having to fear for their political futures is fine by me.  Also McConnell will have a HUGE warchest, Judd should be able to tap into some out of state fundraising to take the fight to him.  

      He better have a pure as the driven snow personal life and past though, because oppo research will bury her otherwise.  

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:23:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Won't our candidate have a big war chest as well, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        especially if it's someone like Grimes, who isn't really a conservative Democrat and who might be the only female candidate out of the seats where we have a relatively decent chance of winning?

        Also, when was the last time McDonnell filed a fund raising report? Open Secrets lists him as having $1,000,000 cash on hand, but that might only go up to 2010. He raised quite a bit for 2008, but he spent almost everything. And for what it's worth, Lunsford spent everything but only raised about half of what McConnell raised.

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:38:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I've begin to sorta warm up to Judd (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MrLiberal, askew

        For exactly that reason. I don't really think someone like Grimes will sacrifice her political future in what I'm seeing as a sure losing cause. (as bj said, its debatable whether that she'd be sacrificing anything, but perception is more important than reality and for that reason I don't see Grimes running). Judd can raise money, and if were going to lose the seat anyway, why not have some fun doing it. At least McConnell has to spend money this way.

        •  I wouldn't mind her if she (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          markhanna, askew

          were willing to be coached and to work her ass off. She'd still probably face impossible odds, but if nobody else were willing to step up to the plate, hopefully she could hold her head high.

          If nothing else, her potential candidacy would provide a good indication of our floor in the state. Coal county might go against her big, and while the rest of the state might like her because, as sacman said, she's associated with basketball, she's still an out-of-state (partially, anyway) Democrat associated with Hollywood. Unless Dennis Kucinich decides to move to Kentucky to run, I don't think we'd get a seemingly harder sell to the Kentucky electorate than Judd.

          I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

          by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:50:35 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  In contrast to bj's excellent analysis above (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            For some really poor analysis go to the Politico Arena debate on Judd's potential candidacy. Wow - what a bunch of yahoos. The Dems quoted don't seem to have run any campaigns and all basically say a version of "She's a celebrity, so of course she'll be competitive against McConnell." No discussion of her politics or the issues.

            You know, someone should tell Nick Clooney (George's dad) how well celebrity works in Kentucky.

            Another reason not to take Politico seriously.

            •  You know, (0+ / 0-)

              after reading sacman's comments, she might not be so bad. If, as he indicates, her personal popularity would transfer into politics, and she's not THAT out of whack on every issue with the electorate, perhaps she'd be a good candidate. She'd need to be coached, of course, but that's doable.

              I said she'd test our floor in the state, but that kind of assumes everything goes wrong and she doesn't care about offending any constituencies at all, no?

              I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

              by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:45:28 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  not the floor (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            You'd get the floor with a Some Dude. Judd is personally popular and can raise money, which are two things Some Dudes don't have. If she had Jack Conway's views, she'd be a serious threat to win.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:10:32 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Does Judd have Conway's views? (0+ / 0-)

              I see your points, and the more I think about it, the more you might be on to something. It's just that, she might be popular because of UK basketball, but does that extend into the political realm? Is her personal popularity really outweighed by the fact that she is just a few steps away from being a Hollywood outsider? And while she can raise more and/or self fund to some extent, it's not clear how much of a difference that will make here.

              But most importantly, aside from being pro-choice (which Conway and Beshear are to a large degree and Grimes probably is) and being pro-environment, what are her views? Is she really all that different than Jack Conway, except for perhaps on gay marriage or something?

              I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

              by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:42:06 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  If McConnell unloads on Judd's personal history, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        she'll have the money and the megaphone to return the favor. I am sure McConnell isn't squeaky clean either.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:56:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  This is a joke, right? (4+ / 0-)

      Please tell me that this is an elaborate joke or fundraiser or something, right?  I mean, this isn't real.  This can't be real.  It's too absurdly pathetic to be real.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:24:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's not a joke, but I wouldn't worry. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

        If she somehow ends up our candidate, I don't think we had much of a shot to begin with.

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:30:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, as much of a joke as (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, MichaelNY

        Schwarzenegger, Eastwood, Bono, etc.
        Oh wait, those are Republicans. It is perfectly ok for Hollywood Republicans to run for office.

        •  What's annoying about this talk (5+ / 0-)

          of celebrities running is that it usually happens when we have perfectly viable options. There's no need for Democrats to run John Cougar Mellencamp as our candidate for governor in Indiana even now, when we are suffering after 2010 and 2012. And whatever her merits, there's really no reason to run Judd for Senate in Kentucky, not when we have at least five candidates that would, at worst, make McConnell fight like a dog for his seat.

          It might be more appropriate in, say, Tennessee, were Tim McGraw interested in running, but that's mostly because the state party there doesn't seem to know its ass from a hole in the ground.

          All of that said, it doesn't bother me, I guess, if they go through the process like everyone else. What irritated me most about the Governator was that he ran in a special situation that was financed largely by Darrell Issa. Nothing illegal or even necessarily shady was done, but it's still frustrating.

          I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

          by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:53:17 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Did they win in Massachusetts? (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          markhanna, MichaelNY, JBraden, KingTag

          Ah-nuld won under bizarre circumstances that were the only way he could win, and he was a RINO.

          The others won offices that were winnable for Republicans.

          Judd would do just fine if Yarmuth retired and she ran for that seat, and hell maybe she could knock off Jim Cooper in a primary in the Nashville-based seat!...then the general would be a lock.  Or she could win a purple or blue seat in California, if she established residency there per whatever the law is.

          But this is Kentucky and she is a liberal Democrat.  That is the problem, not that she is a celebrity.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:48:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I dunno I have a bad feeling (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SLDemocrat

      She will do even worse than Lunsford

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:08:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, Lunsford came somewhat close (6+ / 0-)

        to beating McConnell, so what does that mean?

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:53:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  yeah (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          Lunsford lost just 53-47. One of the statewide officeholders or Chandler would do well to get that. Judd is probably looking at something like 56-44, and there's no shame in that.

          The Dems want to avoid getting a joke candidate to give the party a black eye, like Mark Clayton in TN or Alvin Greene in SC. Park Overall wasn't going to beat Corker, but she wouldn't have hurt the party the way Clayton did. Judd is basically a rich man's Park Overall.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:11:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  56-44? (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, KingTag, MichaelNY

            I'll bet it would be closer to 70-30. Seriously, Judd is not going to get votes among Demosaurs. Sen. McConnell would probably even carry Jefferson County.

            Judd isn't a serious candidate. The only reason we're talking about her like she's a serious candidate (the way we weren't with Park Overall, whose acting career hit only slightly lower highs than Judd's has) is because she's an attractive woman, thus -- in conjunction with acting parts in a few movies no one watched -- making her a minor celebrity.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:43:30 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Judd has a much higher profile than Overall (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera, BeloitDem

              and I think she'd do better than 30%, but probably not 44%, either.  Probably in the high 30s.

              I've seen her in a few movies, but more notably she also was an Ensign on the Enterprise D.  Her association with Wil Wheaton could provide her with something near a 10th of Bob Massie, enough to easy overwhelm McConnell.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:49:00 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Wil Wheaton? (6+ / 0-)

                I think after he lost that Senate race to Sen. Sherrod Brown last month, he'll be laying low for a while.

                Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                by SaoMagnifico on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:50:34 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Also, there's the fact that Judd (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sacman701, MichaelNY, JBraden

                would have to move back to the state just to run.  Park Overall is at least a long-time Tennessee resident, and has long been active there on a variety of local and national issues.

                Though, OTOH, Judd is considering a run early on, while Overall only decided to do so after expressing consternation to the TN Democratic Party chair that he couldn't find anyone else.  Still, while KY would be an uphill race no matter what, I think it would be wiser to see if any Dems with stronger local political profiles would be willing to commit to a serious campaign, which would probably make for a more credible candidacy even if they're less progressive or don't have Hollywood connections.

                37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:08:57 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  It could be worse I guess (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  She might have to move back from California a la Bob Kerrey's New York sojourn.

                  "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                  by conspiracy on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:19:09 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  she'd break 40 (0+ / 0-)

              Carly Fiorina hit nearly 45 (2-party share) against Barbara Boxer in 2010. She has a better CV than Judd but she still wasn't qualified to be a senator, and as bad an ideological fit for CA as Judd is for KY. She kept the score respectable because she had money to run a campaign, as Judd would.

              SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:18:58 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  ... (5+ / 0-)

                Those two races are not equivalent.

                Fiorina had the benefit of an exceptional year for her party in a race where she was able to maintain financial parity with her opponent because of her vast personal wealth in a state which was much more hospitable to her party at the federal level (California was D+7 at the time of that election).

                Judd will be running in no better than a lukewarm environment for her party nationally in a race where she will not be able to personally fund to the degree that Fiorina was (she is nowhere near as wealthy) and will not have financial parity with McConnell (who has $13 million in the bank already) in a state that is much less hospitable to her party than California (Kentucky will be R+13 during this election). While the state is certainly more Democratic locally, Judd does not have the requisite views (I.E. good on coal) to harness that local strength.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:25:06 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, Lunsford overperformed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          "Even worse" is, well, probably everyone.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:49:17 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  It's rare that I'm not able... (10+ / 0-)

      To find any common ground in analyzing an electoral situation with my fellow Electioneers -- but I see literally no upside to running Ashley Judd for Senate in Kentucky.

      1. She doesn't even live in Kentucky. She would be carpetbagging from Tennessee.

      2. She is way, way too liberal on environmental and social issues to win in Kentucky. She's probably too liberal to win comfortably in a state like Pennsylvania, even.

      3. She has never run for office before, and her only "qualification" is that she's a B-list actress. On its own, that might not be a killer -- Arnold Schwarzenegger had a similar profile -- but it's hardly points in her favor.

      4. She would probably raise quite a bit of out of state money, and then she would lose big, giving Sen. McConnell something more to crow about and making Sen. Rand Paul look nigh-invincible heading into 2016. I think it would have a chilling effect on Democratic donors' willingness to support even touted candidates in red states.

      5. Running Judd is an admission of weakness on the part of Kentucky Democrats. We have a deep bench in the state, but you'd never know it if our nominee in a potentially competitive Senate race is a liberal actress from out of state. It tarnishes the brand of the party and frankly makes our Democratic statewide elected officials there look like chumps. If they don't run and Judd is the nominee, that's a self-inflicted wound, but it's a wound all the same.

      The only plus at all I see is that it might force McConnell to spend some money and some time back home just to respond to Judd's money. But it wouldn't take much for him, because Judd is going to get obliterated in coal country and western Kentucky, and she'll probably lose every county in the Commonwealth. I doubt McConnell is sweating her at all, even if he might have to make a token buy just to avoid accusations that he's being too passive in the face of an (ineffectual) ad onslaught.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:27:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I am in complete agreement. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingTag, MichaelNY

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:30:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I agree (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, TrueBlueDem, MichaelNY

        Just an awful fit on so many levels. And money doesn't change any of that particularly when McConnell will have obscene numbers himself. She shouldn't need to poll. Her liabilities are all too obvious.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:34:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  point 5 (0+ / 0-)

        If they end up with a Paul Sadler type (random ex-state legislator) would they look any less like chumps? That may be the case, because it would attract less attention. If they end up with a Mark Clayton type, they'll look even more like chumps.

        I can see the argument that the party may be best off if one of the A team bites the bullet and loses respectably, but how do you convince any of them that they should be the one to take one for the team?

        I think Judd would win at least the four counties that Obama won. She wouldn't come off as nearly as much of an outsider as he did.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:55:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Some darn good analysis (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TrueBlueDem, MichaelNY

        I take back what I said above about being okay with Judd

      •  Ashley Judd (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, MichaelNY

        ...is not a B-List actress.

        Other than that small point I agree.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:00:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  She could win Pennsylvania (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        Al Franken won Minnesota, afterall. Against a relatively strong incumbent.

      •  I don't have a problem with Ashley running b/c: (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JGibson

        1. There is no way we are going to knock off McConnell, so we might as well run a candidate who can tap into outside money and not waste resources that could be used elsewhere in 2014 Senate races.

        2. She'll attract a lot of media attention and she can use it to talk about issues that are ignored by the media.

        3. She is incredibly smart and articulute and will give McConnell a run for his money during the debates.

        4. Ashley will tie McConnell down in KY so he can't do fundraisers across the country for other Senate races and the GOP will have to spend serious money to defend his seat.

        5. Because Ashley makes this a high profile race, the GOP SuperPACS will spend millions defending Mitch's seat. That's money that can't be spent in more competitive races.

        6. And after Reid's tough race in 2010, I want the Dems to make McConnell sweat in 2014. We don't have any candidates that will do that. Ashley will make him work for it.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:05:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Steve Beshear, ALG, and several others (6+ / 0-)

          would not just have the ability to make McConnell sweat, they'd both have an outside chance of knocking him off.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:26:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Eh, I don't know that I buy that after the 2010 (0+ / 0-)

            election. Rand Paul was a horrible candidate and Conway was an excellent candidate and he still lost. McConnell is an incumbent and Senate Minority Leader. He's going to sail to a win unless Ashley wins.

            President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

            by askew on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:55:20 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  both won in landslides in 2011. (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Skaje, MichaelNY, kman23

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:58:04 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yes, but there is a difference between (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, askew

                state and federal races. There's a reason why none of these statewide officials are running against McConnell. Even in a neutral year, I don't think Bashear would beat him. Not in Kentucky.

                •  in a different situation I would disagree (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  but I think McConnell is too entrenched to lose now, in 98% of scenarios.  In McConnell's last and Bunnings last two elections both won with 53% or less.  I don't think in an open race in a year other than 2010 we'd be that significant an underdog.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 03:27:17 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  that's probably about right (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, MichaelNY

                    I would put it at 80-90% instead of 98%, though. A really strong Dem would probably lose to McConnell by 5-10 in a neutral year, and would have to hope for a blue wave. Wave elections aren't the norm, but they aren't that unusual.

                    I think Conway would have been about 50-50 to beat Paul in an open seat in a neutral year. As of now I'd give him about 25% to win a rematch in 2016.

                    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                    by sacman701 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 03:44:28 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  McConnell has not run the campaign he plans (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    to run this time. He's planning to run a presidential-style campaign, probably modeled after Obama.

                    It makes sense why are top tier is waiting.

            •  not seeing it (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, MichaelNY, KingTag

              Why would Judd be a stronger candidate than Conway or Beshear or Chandler or Grimes? Her positions on coal and some social issues are liabilities. She would have to flip tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of votes to offset that among people who would otherwise vote GOP or stay home, and I don't see how she gets that.

              SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 03:11:00 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Republicans won a lot of races in 2010 (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sacman701, James Allen, MichaelNY

              that they shouldn't have.  Unless we are assuming 2014 turns out the same way, we can't directly compare.

              •  gotta wonder if (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Rs would actually field state house candidates in Eastern Kentucky to take advantage of a sustained R vote from those parts if the D Senate nominee is Ashley Judd. Which could endanger the D State House majority.

                The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                by RBH on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 03:22:52 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I think the odds of (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  a bad Senate nominee threatening a party's state legislators is overrated.  In fact, I've seen no evidence of Senate coat-tails either direction.  Only the presidential race seems to generate such a phenomenon, and in the off-years, it's almost always a referendum on the incumbent president.

                  •  Kentucky has straight ticket on their ballots (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, KingTag

                    There was a sizable drop in total votes between the top of the ticket and the unopposed state legislature Democrats in Eastern Kentucky. Like a 25-33% of voters not voting for the unopposed Dem after voting for President.

                    So a bad nominee could cause the Rs to bank a lot of votes from people voting straight ticket R to vote for McConnell, making it easier for a challenger to approach or surpass a Dem.

                    I'd rather have Matthew Barzun with his light ties to the state of Kentucky and a record of being an Obama fundraiser than Ashley Judd. Because at least Barzun isn't exactly defined on many 'issues' other than being an Obama fundraiser.

                    Another thing about a nominee threatening legislators..

                    the state level results in 2010 were worse in the areas where the top ticket election wasn't competitive. Missouri (Blunt/Carnahan). Michigan (Snyder/Bernaro). New Hampshire (Ayotte/Hodes). Arkansas (Boozman/Lincoln). Tennessee (Haslam/Sacrificial Lamb). Montana (no statewides)

                    As opposed to places like West Virginia (Manchin/Raese) and Nevada (Reid/Angle).

                    The days of large numbers of voters splitting tickets is over. It went away in 2010 and didn't show signs of returning in 2012.

                    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                    by RBH on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 03:46:31 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

    •  She'd probably lose (0+ / 0-)

      But at least it would be entertaining! Her, Naomi and crazy Wynona on the campaign trail would be a sight to behold.

    •  Not much worse, I think (0+ / 0-)

      Sure, that Green guy in SC would be worse, but not much else would be.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:02:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  trying to win senate seats in R+infinity states (0+ / 0-)

      is a waste of time. 2014 should be all about damage control.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:35:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hillary for Mayor? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

    by WisJohn on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:30:49 AM PST

  •  NY-St. Assembly: Since we're talking about NY (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, TrueBlueDem, lordpet8, ArkDem14

    look at this, an interactive map of the new Assembly districts, complete with partisan registration:
    http://nyshd2011.ballotpedia.censusviewer.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:41:41 AM PST

  •  Michael Bennet to chair DSCC (6+ / 0-)
  •  Dick Armey's left Freedomworks (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, MichaelNY
    Former Republican House Majority Leader Dick Armey has left a conservative Tea Party group, FreedomWorks, under a secret deal that will pay him $8 million.
    link

    he says they had principled differences.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:31:13 AM PST

  •  WI-Local (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    Zach Wisniewski, a political blogger at Blogging Blue, intends to run for a seat on the Cudahy, Wisconsin City Council.

    I wish him the best on his run. His opponent is Randy Hollenbeck, an "ultra-conservative" hack.

    Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:32:49 AM PST

    •  that post does not say what you say it does. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:37:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Here's Zach's announcement, via FB (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY
        Okay.....I'm not kidding. If Randy Hollenbeck (see below) is running for alderman with only token opposition then I may have no choice but to give voters a real choice. If this comes to pass, I'll need a kitchen cabinet like ASAP.
        Zach, apparently when asked whether or not he would run against Randy, said this:
        All in.
        Here's a link to Zach's Facebook page, by the way.

        Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:46:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  How permanent is permanent? (0+ / 0-)

    When five becomes two, they probably won't like it anymore.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:18:25 AM PST

  •  IL-15 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    That is actually my home congressional district, and, outside of the east side of the City of Danville (which has a sizable Black population), the rest of the district is very conservative and solidly Republican.

    The southern part of IL-15, including Harrisburg, is ancestrally Democratic, but most self-identified Democrats in that part of the district are of the Gary Forby/Brandon Phelps mold, and, thus, are quite conservative.

    The Democratic candidate in IL-15 this cycle was a fake Democrat/anti-abortion zealot named Angela Michael, who either ran or intended to run graphic anti-abortion ads in the St. Louis TV market. I'm not sure if any of Michael's ads made it to the airwaves, as I'm in the portion of IL-15 that is in the Champaign-Springfield TV market.

    IL-15 Democrats should work on getting a legitimate Democrat to run, although whoever does run will have virtually no chance of winning unless something bizarre happens. I'll be 24 years old in 2014, so I can't legally run for Congress this cycle.

    Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:19:11 AM PST

  •  Spreadsheet (0+ / 0-)

    I've added the new district data to the spreadsheet.

    https://docs.google.com/...

    Is it just me or did the nat'l number go down from last night?

    https://docs.google.com/...

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:45:26 AM PST

  •  GA-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    Has this been discussed in detail or have I completely missed it?

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:45:58 AM PST

    •  It has (5+ / 0-)

      And I have to say that these numbers look exactly where Lugar's and every tea-bagged Republican's did at the beginning of their own cycles. A strong lead against named opponents but behind "more conservative option".

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:49:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Where? (0+ / 0-)

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:50:26 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          You're talking about the poll in specific. I thought you meant the idea of a Georgia challenge.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:51:56 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Aye (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            Anyway, I agree with your analysis. Potentially. Then again, 38-41 approval isn't great as it is. Likely R but if there is room for offense it is certainly here.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:55:33 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  What's there to lose? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, JBraden

              Our biggest worry is that we have a lot of retirements, it seems. That could really hurt us in Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia, and/or South Dakota, but even if it only makes things more difficult in New Jersey and Iowa, it still is a hurdle. But if we are solid there, is it really going to hurt us to plan to be competitive in Georgia? Money isn't limitless, but none of the states where we are most likely to be in trouble are in expensive media markets. Georgia is, of course, but a largely self-sufficient candidate is necessary anyway.

              I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

              by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:06:55 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I'm back to trusting PPP more... (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8, BeloitDem, JGibson, MichaelNY

              ...than I did for quite a few months earlier this year, when I thought they had some rosy outliers I didn't trust.  They did have those, and I still don't trust those particular outliers were ever remotely accurate.  But their body of work as a whole was very good and in the big picture they have established their public polling as a pretty good canary in the coal mine, when there is a canary to be found.

              I realize I shouldn't be surprised by a GOP incumbent being vulnerable to teabagging, but somehow I still am...I wouldn't have guessed Chambliss would draw any dissatisfaction from the right.  He's not RINO, and he has no specific big apostasies like Robert Bennett in Utah who had the gall to work across the aisle on a health care plan that the hated Democrats didn't even like or allow to progress.  So I'm still scratching my head...again, maybe I should know better, that's just how crazy rank-and-file Republicans have become.

              But this is encouraging only if we get a competent candidate and someone along the lines of Herman Cain is the GOP nominee.  We're not going to beat someone like Tom Price or Karen Handel in November.  It would have to be someone that about 30% of white voters just can't stomach, and that would be Cain.

              That Georgia has runoffs makes this harder for us.  It means we can't count on a Libertarian or other minor candidate to siphon away votes to let us take the seat with a plurality.  We're not going to win a runoff, so we have to get to 50+1 in one shot.  And that further demands that the GOP nominate someone crazy.

              Now, I realize this PPP poll is teeing up Cain as our dream foe.  But we can't take that to the bank, Cain has enough warts that Chambliss can rough him up pretty good, including with conservatives.  Chambliss can push hard the message of Cain's extramarital philandering as anathema to social conservatives, and then attack his tax ideas as tax increases on this or that group of voters.

              So I'm still not sold a path to victory is there for us in this race.  We have a lot more pitfalls in this one than in successful ratfucks of the past.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:11:41 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Cain already said no (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, MichaelNY, KingTag

                But I suppose numbers like this could prompt him to reconsider. I suspect Broun is likely the one to watch though.

                "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                by conspiracy on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:25:48 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Rolling my eyes (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                JGibson, MichaelNY, JBraden, KingTag

                at how anyone could think Herman Cain is a credible candidate, after sexual harassment charges, "Uzbeki-beki-bekistan", 9-9-9 (i.e. drastically cut taxes for the rich and slap everyone with a regressive national sales tax), etc.

                Then again, somehow Republicans elsewhere actually were willing to consider him for President for a short time, so I guess they have their own definition of credible.

                37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:17:26 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Why are they polling Allen West against (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Chambliss? I mean, sure, he was born in Atlanta, but is he really crazy enough to move to back to the state and try to challenge an incumbent?

      Anyway, yes, it's been discussed. I think it's safe to say the thinking is:

      1. Chambliss is only really vulnerable if he's part of some deal that includes higher revenues and/or especially higher rates.

      2. Even if he is vulnerable, all of his talked about replacements are either (a) not going to run or (b) are still within the mainstream of Georgia politics, as Grady Dem says.

      3. On top of all that, it's not clear who the Democrats might run. Barrow seems to be the best on paper, but we might sacrifice a House seat were he to run. Besides, he's already said he isn't running. Would Sanford Bishop run? Better yet, do we want him to run? Leah Ward Sears lives in New York now, I think, and who knows what former SOS Cathy Cox is up to. There's Thurbert Baker III, but has he been asked about the possibility?

      Grady Dem has said that Kasim Reed might be the person to turn things around for the state party. If that's the case, perhaps he's a good person to run.

      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

      by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:00:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I like the idea of Cleland running. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, KingTag, MichaelNY, pademocrat

      Has anyone asked him if he's interested? He is undoubtedly the strongest Democratic candidate available.

      18, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF sophomore, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

      by tqycolumbia on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:19:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  As expected (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, JBraden

      A strong Dem can beat a teabagger, but headup against Saxby would be very tough.

      There is no doubt at least one teabagger will challenge Saxby, so recruiting a top challeger here should be a major priority.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:36:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Anybody have the link to discharge petition (0+ / 0-)

    Signature Page???

  •  2016 tea leaves (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, itskevin, MichaelNY

    Anyone see this? Hillary sent letters to several (narrowly) losing Democratic congressional candidates.

    http://politicker.com/...

    •  either she or her daughter plans on running (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      a campaign fairly soon, I'd imagine.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:41:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  That seems like a clear sign she's running (0+ / 0-)

      I can't think of another reason she would these particular letters.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 04:39:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  According to National Journal (0+ / 0-)

    the President is genuinely conflicted over who should replace Hillary Clinton.

    Interesting that the article indicates the pick for SOS could come before Defense secretary, when an AP article a few days basically said the opposite, I believe.

    It wouldnt surprise me if the SOS announcement came next month given the fiscal cliff negotiations. Now that I've said, watch how the announcement comes tomorrow. :)

    One thing that seems consistent in the recent speculation: It's unlikely Kerry is going to be Defense Secretary. Either SOS or he stays in the Senate.

    link.

    •  um, I see the article includes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Kerry as a potential Defense secretary as well. So never, mind that last part, I guess, although I feel like someone else gets that position, probably Panetta's deputy, Ashton Carter, who the president praised in a speech yesterday.

    •  Best case senario would be Reid convincing... (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike, JBraden, MichaelNY, pademocrat

      Kerry that he's just too important in the Senate.  I don't like how McCain and the GOP Senators all taking shots at Rice also are making it known how "But Kerry would sail through"  overtly pining for the open Massachusetts seat for Scott Brown.  

      With Kerry for SecDef I think they could out-wait Brown, get him to declare his 2014 intentions first - which I think he'd probably lean towards running for Governor.  

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:12:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Brown doesn't scare me (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, JBraden, MichaelNY

        I just don't see the point in even entertaining the risk. Obama already went through this crap several times four years ago. There are plenty other outstanding candidates, like Chuck Hagel for instance, who aren't sitting members of the Senate.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:21:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  He might feel he owes it to Kerry (6+ / 0-)

          He gave him the keynote in 2004, and endorsed him over Clinton early in 2008.

        •  This fear of Brown is laughable (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          GradyDem

          I imagine the people fearing Brown now are the same people who feared Akin a little over a month ago.

          Any Democrat will beat Brown by double-digits in a special election.  Brown is destroyed forever.  Maybe he can get back his old state Senate seat, but that's as high as hell ever climb again.  He likely won't go for that, so his 2010 win will have been the last election he ever won.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 08:16:14 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh come on (6+ / 0-)

            You have strong opinions about this, but fear of Brown is neither "laughable" nor comparable to fear of Akin. The differences in the situations are so obvious that I don't think it's necessary to lay them out. And merely asserting predictions as if you are Sibyl doesn't make them - or you - truly clairvoyant.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 08:22:45 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Don't call me Sibyl, call me Shirley (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              And I don't claim to be clairvoyant but still feel completely confident in that prediction.

              Brown just lost as an elected incumbent by high single-digits to a novice candidate who entered the race with minimal name recognition among ordinary voters.

              This is a liberal Democratic state, Brown was a flash in the pan who won under "perfect storm" circumstances that won't repeat, partly because one of the necessary circumstances was Democrats taking a nap...it was classic hare vs. tortoise that won't repeat with Democrats the next time pounding on Brown relentlessly from Day One.  They completely ignored Brown the first time until it was too late, the next time they'll bury him immediately.

              Brown is the next Linda Lingle (who just got destroyed 63-37 to the same candidate she crushed in HI-Gov 2002...point is things change).  I see him losing big, but double-digits for sure.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 08:31:44 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Fine, that's your opinion (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingTag, James Allen

                and it might come to pass. But pointing to things like the large difference between Brown's and Romney's margin of defeat in MA and the difference between a presidential-year senatorial election and a special election is hardly laughable. How about dialing down the rhetoric a bit among friends?

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 08:46:14 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Lingle (4+ / 0-)

                Didn't crush in 2002... She only won 51-47.

                But speaking of this, was Lingle a "flash in the pan" as you put it? No. She won a second time. Perhaps Brown won't win a second term, but remember that he was beating every other named opponent by much larger margins in trial heats than he was beating Warren early in the cycle. Warren was the strongest candidate by far that we had and even she only won by single digits underperforming the President by a huge amount.

                The notion that Brown can win again is not "laughable" but a legitimate position. Any special election electorate is going to skew much less Democratic than a Presidential election is and, given the enthusiasm he draws among Republicans and certain kinds of Democrats (mind you the these types of voters are the ones most likely to vote in a special election), beating him is not going to be a cakewalk. And then you've got the fact that nobody - not a single person - will be as strong as Warren was against him (remember the polling from last cycle). And even she wasn't that strong. Nobody will energize Democrats in the way that she did.  Nobody will have the ability to fundraise to the extent that she, and Brown, did.

                This fear is legitimate.

                Mind you: I don't think that Brown will win, but I think you are completely off-base by calling people's positions "laughable" when they certainly are anything but.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 08:54:44 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I think she beat him by a solid enough margin. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Let's remember that Brown was and still might be popular. He wasn't tarred by huge scandals and 2012 wasn't as good as 2008 for Democrats.

                  That said, I don't think it's safe to write him off. I just wouldn't fear him all that much--not if we can actually campaign hard, which is not what Coakley did.

                  There's also the fact that this all seems...kind of avoidable, I guess, if Kerry isn't picked. Whatever his qualifications, he doesn't really need to be, no?

                  I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

                  by bjssp on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:29:11 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  The fact that he was popular (0+ / 0-)

                    is precisely the reason why he can't be written off. He's clearly a much better than average Republican performer for MA. Losing in an ugly way may well do continuing harm to his reputation - I do think that the "macaca" slur probably had something to do with Allen's repeat loss in Virginia, and Brown's reelection campaign was pretty blatantly racist and sexist, though not quite to that level of blatantness. But just assuming he can't come back is unwise.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:29:17 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  I stand corrected on Lingle's '02 margin, but... (0+ / 0-)

                  ...I stand by the rest.

                  Those early polls with Brown vs. other Democrats are meaningless, I commented here recently in another thread that in hindsight, I suspect some of those others who polled poorly likely would've ended up beating him last month.  Early polls can be very, very misleading.

                  After all, Brown himself trailed Coakley by 30 a mere month before he beat her.

                  Brown outperformed Romney only because Brown was the incumbent...and he still lost by a pretty big margin for an elected incumbent.

                  This notion of Brown being uniquely personally popular is very badly overstated.  He didn't win on his personal popularity in the first place, he won because voters were turning against Democrats nationally in a wave and then Coakley and the state and national parties took victory for granted and didn't bother to campaign at all until it was too late.  And yet people talk about Brown as if he's a MA version of Heidi Heitkamp...he's not, not even close.

                  The bottom line is if Brown were personally popular, he would've won.  That he lost, and lost decisively, means voters aren't really into him that much after all.  He was a vehicle to voice their momentary frustrations at one time, nothing more.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 11:42:44 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  Sometimes I wonder (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      if these kinds of stories aren't planted just to throw the opposition off the scent -- i.e. to get the GOP to back off Rice for a while.

  •  Rep. Tim Ryan got Murphied in August (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, jncca, MichaelNY

    Was arrested for public intoxication. Story here.

    The arrest occurred Aug. 25. Ryan was released on his own recognizance and later pleaded not guilty.

    Lowry said Ryan was in town for a staff wedding. He did not immediately respond to questions about whether Ryan had submitted to a breathalyzer test or whether the congressman was, in fact, intoxicated.

    The Lexington, Va., Police Department said it could not provide any details on the circumstances of the arrest, citing state law.

    I think it's fair to say this is going to put a dent in his ambitions for higher office. Seriously, I don't really care that he was drunk in public -- I walk past annoying drunks (and worse) almost every day and don't pay them much heed unless they're vomiting all over the place or passed out stone cold on the sidewalk -- but concealing it from August until December seems shady. I understand he probably didn't want to deal with it during the election, but then maybe he shouldn't have done it.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:49:11 PM PST

    •  Alaska sounds like an interesting place. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, MichaelNY

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:52:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thoughts on This (5+ / 0-)

      1: Doesn't bother me any.  I don't think public intoxication should even be a crime.

      2: It will bother the voters.  Kasich won't be easy to beat; he's not Paul LePage.  We need a candidate with as few flaws as possible.

      3: There's also the possibility that Ryan is an alcoholic, although many people get drunk at weddings so it's more likely than not that he isn't.  If that's the case, we definitely don't want him running, and he should go get help.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:00:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It was a wedding (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        Unless he was driving or doing something completely ridiculous, I tend to cut people a lot of slack.

        •  Yeah (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          From what I know so far, I'm not at all bothered.  But some voters will be, and in a race that's basically a Pure Tossup we need to keep every voter we can in our camp.

          It's possible he's still the best candidate because he's pro-life, but I'm not sure.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:51:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  even if he doesn't run statewide (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      he could easily be another Nick Rahall or John Dingell and climb the seniority ladder.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:53:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dominic Pileggi (6+ / 0-)

    If I were he, I would learn the art of the STFU. He rather narrowly won (6%ish) the parts of his district that will remain his in the 2016 election and this was against a lousy candidate. His district is loaded with so many straight-ticket Democrats, that any candidate will give him a race in 2016.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:58:48 PM PST

  •  I don't expect the Republicans to retake (8+ / 0-)

    Washington County, OR, anytime soon with leadership like this at the helm:

    Liberalism is an atheistic cult. The DNC is actually communism wrapped in their liberal religion to mask the fact they are attempting to create their utopian enslavement.
    Much, much more at the link.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:09:55 PM PST

    •  I (6+ / 0-)

      for one welcome our new atheist overlords.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:31:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  holy crap that isn't the best part (6+ / 0-)
        Liberalism is a Godless religion whose High Priests are scientists. Since they don’t believe in God or a superior being the only people who can explain; existence or truth are scientists. They won’t accept the “myth” of creation so they have to have the scientist explain our coming to being through evolution. According to evolution the top of the evolutionary chain is man which means that the only thing superior to man is a more intelligent man or a group of men together like government or science.  That should disprove their theory right there.

        The average liberal will accept anything a scientist says since they think the scientific method is based on facts and infallible. When a scientist declares something true by consensus such as evolution or Global Warming they accept it as absolute truth. Never mind science has been wrong about similar theories such as acid rain, DDT, Spotted Owls or AIDs affecting heterosexuals they accept it without question. The liberal will accept it completely without hesitation and when someone dares to question the findings of these scientists, that person is attacked and declared a heretic or ignorant of science. The truth is science has been corrupted by politics and now is closed to competitive theories and will destroy careers of non believers.

        the only part of the above I will comment on is that, wait, he doesn't believe AIDS affects heterosexuals?

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 03:16:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  That's hilarious (0+ / 0-)

      I think they'll have to be content with their (very likely temporary) takeover of Clackamas County.

      I'm guessing Sen. Merkley doesn't get a strong challenge in 2014, nor does Gov. Kitzhaber, and Democrats end up reversing a lot of the damage from last month they took in ClackCo. Kitzhaber lost the county to Dudley, of course, and Merkley lost it to then-Sen. Gordon Smith, but I think they'll win it by 10+ points in 2014.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:26:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  wouldn't have expected something like this (0+ / 0-)

      in Washington County. Woulda guessed that the republicans here are of the Hatfield/Packwood variety. The tinfoilers in Oregon tend to live east of the cascades.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:55:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You would think so... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        And on the ground, I think a lot of them are. Unfortunately, as Egypt and Mali are learning, radicals and extremists tend to be better organized than moderates in political movements, especially minorities.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:19:34 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  there's plenty of nuttiness on the west side (0+ / 0-)

        I would venture to say that many of the Hatfield-type Republicans who used to exist in WashCo are now Democrats or NAVs.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:57:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Oregon's most Democratic state house (0+ / 0-)

    district by PVI is now HD-43, which had previously been in a tie with HD-42, at D+39.  HD-42 hit about that, with Obama finishing with just under 92% of the vote, but Obama got just under 93% in HD-43.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:23:25 PM PST

  •  got a revote coming up in MO-HD150 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    A revote... in 2 precincts on December 18th. Because on November 6th, some voters in Campbell Rural, a precinct split between two House districts, got ballots for the wrong state house district (in both directions).

    The Dunklin County Clerk was asking for a new election in the entire district. Which was turned down.

    Tom Todd (D) v. Kent Hampton (R) will go on to December 18th, with Hampton (the incumbent) holding a 140 vote lead. So if Hampton wins, or loses by fewer than 140 votes, he wins. If Todd wins by 141 or more votes, he wins.

    A precinct with 583 votes is re-voting. And the media reports this was a precinct that was actually won by Hampton on November 6th (166-153). Hampton is on board with the revote, Todd's squad might be tempted to keep suing.

    Gotta imagine having to canvass 500ish voters over 2 weeks is going to be fun

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:53:28 PM PST

    •  You could blind knock that shit (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, gabjoh

      And still do like 5 passes.

      •  you may wanna adjust that (0+ / 0-)

        the precinct looks like a long-driveways, long-distance between doors rural precinct.

        But the Dem candidate lives nearby (neither candidate in this district lives in the district, they both live in Dunklin County and are able to run here because the redistricting map wasn't finished a year before the election, thus the residency requirement is adjusted to allow someone to run for any state house district in their county)

        But if the weather turns lousy, then the candidates get extra credit for doing door to door.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 03:13:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Motorcycle canvassers (0+ / 0-)

          Really, truly are the best; learned that one the fun way. Even so, I can imagine that would be fun. Would this impact the supermajorities at all?

          (And precincts split between districts... ugh.)

          How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

          by gabjoh on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 03:33:57 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  not directly (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            but a D win would reduce the House Supermajority to 109-54 from 110-53. Which means Rs have less room for dissent on an override. And the Ds would be one special election for an R seat away from ending the supermajority instead of two seats away.

            If half the voters in the precinct vote (292) somehow. Then the D would need to win by around 220-72 to take a lead. And I say a lead because if the D wins on December 18th in this fashion and it's in a recount margin, the lawsuits will continue and there'll be a seating dispute.

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 03:50:05 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Spreadsheet (0+ / 0-)

    I'm going to be adding three columns to my spreadsheet.

    And Adjusted '08 PVI column:

    All PVIs have subtracted from them the distance from an exact tie in '08 specifically. In addition to knowing where a district voted relative to the nation, it is also important to know where a district voted relative to the exact tie scenario (I.E. which districts actually voted for the President, yet just less so than the nation). I'll be doing this through spreadsheet functions so as to remove bias, so remember that since PVIs are rounded numbers that this will move the PVIs anywhere between 2 and 4 numbers depending on the base unrounded number of the original PVI. For example, WI-7 moves from 0 to D+4 in 2008 only numbers.

    I'll be doing the same for the '12 only numbers.

    The third column will be a gross '08-'12 adjusted PVI.

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:32:56 PM PST

    •  Unfortunately (0+ / 0-)

      I will not be able to offer a '04-'08 adjusted PVI because I do not have access to 2004 numbers for each district and because PVIs are rounded by Cook et al. before being published we can only estimate where they fall after an adjustment.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:36:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Surprising news from Fresno CA (16+ / 0-)

    In what I believe is their final update, Obama moves from being behind by 1%/1600 votes, to being ahead by 2%/4600 votes.

    That is a huge shift from just 23k ballots.  This means Obama only under performed Fresno by about .1% from 2008, and...

    This pushes Obama over the top of a 3 million+ margin in the state of CA alone.

    State page and Wasserman not updated yet, but here is the county page
    http://www.co.fresno.ca.us/...

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:47:29 PM PST

  •  MO-08 correction (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, MichaelNY, bumiputera

    Republicans hold MO-Auditor, which is elected in midterms for some reason.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 03:13:55 PM PST

  •  Another quirk on the MO-08 election (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, MichaelNY

    the power of the governor to appoint a Lt. Governor may not be explicitly granted. The last time a Lt. Governor was appointed (in November 2000, post succession of Roger Wilson), Peter Kinder was one of the Republicans questioning the power of the Governor to do so, but they declined to challenge it since it was a two-month long appointment.

    This time, if Kinder is their nominee and he wins, then they will either sue or try to change the law to fill statewide vacancies via special election. They were pushing to strip Nixon of his appointment power to replace statewides in 2010 when Robin Carnahan was running for the Senate, but they never quite pulled it off because the Republicans in the House and Senate are not good at working together.

    But they have the numbers now to override a veto on their own (despite being re-elected by 15%, Nixon doesn't have any coattails and the Dems fell to 53 seats of 163).

    So they'd prefer to fill the seat via a special election instead of an appointment.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 03:20:23 PM PST

    •  There was this same issue in New York (0+ / 0-)

      When Paterson tried to appoint an LG when it had never been done before. The high court in New York sided with Paterson, though that's not a prediction that the same thing would happen in MO.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 04:44:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Was looking at the California county map (6+ / 0-)

    for various ballot propositions, they all seemed about right, but there was one county that voted to repeal the death penalty that made me laugh.

    #YOLO!

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 03:32:46 PM PST

  •  David, the State Auditor in Missouri is (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, bumiputera

    Republican Tom Schweich. He beat incumbent Susan Montee in 2010. Almost a sweep of the statewide offices for the Democrats.

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

    by WisJohn on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 03:40:02 PM PST

  •  Man I hope this doesn't make me seem like a jerk. (14+ / 0-)

    But I can't help it:

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 04:01:54 PM PST

  •  DGA (9+ / 0-)

    it may have been announced already, but VT gov Peter Shumlin has been elected to DGA chair.

    Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

    by DougTuttle on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 04:26:34 PM PST

  •  AZ9 (4+ / 0-)

    From the link:

    "Sepulveda said that if he won the nomination, he would run as the “polar opposite” to Sinema on the size of government, military issues and values. He also placed a heavy emphasis on tying her to Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif."

    Good luck with that in a district Obama won by nearly 5 points. That makes about as much sense as running a hard-left campaign against Sean Duffy and tying him to Boehner.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 04:47:55 PM PST

    •  Sepulveda would be easier to beat than Rogers. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 05:27:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Reminds me of VA-Sen this year (6+ / 0-)

      where the GOP wanted to tie Kaine to national Democrats and Obama as part of their strategy, despite the fact that Obama was likely to carry the state.  Guys, Virginia is not a red state anymore.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 05:38:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  well (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, BeloitDem, KingofSpades

        if you've painted VA red...:)

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:41:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Virginia Republicans still haven't (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        figured that out, though;

      •  I think there's this hopeful derangement (5+ / 0-)

        A lot of Republicans simply cannot understand why anyone in their right minds would support President Obama (at least for any reason other than that they're being essentially bribed to do so, as evidenced by Romney's "47%" and "gifts" remarks), and so they assume that people will associate Obama with "bad" in a campaign.

        Democrats ran into the same problem trying to beat Gov. Walker in the recall. They assumed all they had to do to win the support of swing voters was to keep repeating "Walker, Walker, Walker" over and over again like he was Bloody Mary or something. It turns out Walker had more fans than he did detractors (or at least more who cared enough to vote), and so I think Democrats wasted a lot of time talking about Walker (and unions, which many assumed were more beloved than they turned out to be) and not enough time appealing to swing voters.

        It's just kind of funny that the GOP mocked Democrats for the big Wisconsin recall flop, then turned around and made the exact same mistakes (assuming merely saying Obama's name would sway swing voters, and assuming their unswerving advocacy of tax cuts was more popular than it actually is) in the (much more important) national election.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:56:36 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Rick Snyder is moving towards RTW-fl support (5+ / 0-)

    Rick's living dangerously... would not stun me if Gary Peters runs for that office to open his Detroit district.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 05:13:13 PM PST

    •  It would be nigh suicide to do that. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 05:24:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Unions screwed up with the ballot measure... (0+ / 0-)

      Snyder wouldn't have touched it before, but the ballot measure vote emboldened the RTW folks and they can use the vote results to push Snyder on it.  

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 05:44:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Disagree... (6+ / 0-)

        They would have used the excuse of the defeat of the emergency manager law to try and pass it.  This was coming no matter what.  The purpose of the amendment was to try and head it off at the pass.  Don't listen to the Michigan pundits who have their heads up their asses on this.  This was coming regardless.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 05:51:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  EXACTLY (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, blueonyx, MichaelNY

          I hate this narrative that this is payback for Prop 2.  Truth is that the only reason Prop 2 was proposed was because Hous Republicans had been threatening RTW since they came in in 2010, Mike Shirkey in particular.  They were going to do this, anyway.  If anything, they are actually pushing it, now, because they knew they were going to lose seats going into 2013 and the only reason they waited was to see exactly how many seats they'd lose.

          Michigan political pundits are showing their conservative biases with how they've been writing about this.  Bolger & Co. have been wanting to do things - and have already done lots of things - their business bosses wanted them to do.  They've just found some great (better) scapegoats than were previously available.

          I hope they know that if they pass this, we're going to repeal this.

          •  I wish I could be as confident as you... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, MichaelNY, KingTag

            Our failures in Wisconsin and the abysmal failure of prop 2 gives me great pause.  The right has great framing on this issue.  Our general failure in the state recently does not instill me with confidence.

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:54:52 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  What about Ohio? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              What of Ohio?  The pushback against the overreach was clear.  And, the narrative on Michigan is messed up when it comes to Prop 2, because while it went down, it went down with proposals even more conservative than it was liberal.  Not only that, but the union-backed repeal of the emergency manager law passed, so Michigan was a mixed bag at best when it came to sending a message, not some unmitigated win for conservatism.

              I've said it before, but if we can keep the number of proposals and referrenda under four, union proposals have a chance of passing with flying colors.  For whatever reason, once you get above four of them, Michigan voters tend to vote no on everything.

              Certainly, I'm less confident about the power of unions than I was prior to the election, but I don't think there has been a very clear anti-union message up here, either.  At best, it's been a draw.

              •  So, the right wingers will simply load up... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                ...the ballot.  Ohio was different.  The anti-SB folk made it an issue about public safety.  They won't be able to do that this time.  

                I hope that it can be defeated at the ballot box, but I wouldn't bet any money on it.

                GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                by LordMike on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:29:08 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Var (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, pademocrat

    Dane County Supervisor Jenni Dye, who will be featured prominently in the upcoming documentary Forward, has said that she is "looking forward to some exciting news out of Madison tomorrow."

    Although I can't say for certain, there is the possibility that a Democratic candidate may announce his or her intention to run for some public office in Wisconsin sometime tomorrow. The only hint that Dye has given is that the "exciting news" that will come out of Madison tomorrow is that it is political in nature.

    Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 05:14:41 PM PST

  •  LA-SEN '14 (7+ / 0-)

    Mary Landrieu seems eager for the race to start. I think the race slightly favors her at this point.

    link

    Will the jungle primary help or hurt her?

    •  Help her probably. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      If the GOP charges in with a bunch of challengers and/or a number of conservative Indies, then she could win outright.  That's unlikely though.
      As for the title, it makes sense, but is strictly untrue as Obama did better there this year than in 2008.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 06:06:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  She (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      I believe she is the most popular politician in LA, and she won in 2008 against a turncoat Democrat. She should be fine.

      We only think nothing goes without saying.

      by Hamtree on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:07:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Too optimistic (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        I wouldn't call her fine. I'd say she has a better than even shot at reelection, but it's so far out yet.

        That said, the SMOR poll from September/October did find her to be the state's most popular politician.

        Two things I think that do help her that are being overlooked.

        (1) The approval ratings of Jindal and the Rs in the state legislature are in free fall and will continue to do so as they are forced to cut budgets further, close hospitals and attempt to reform state pensions.

        (2) Her brother, Mitch, is really doing a stellar job as mayor. I think his leadership is only going to help her in the metro area, where she always runs 10-20 points ahead of Democrats anyway.

        21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

        by Stephen Schmitz on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:07:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  R's are slumping some in Louisiana? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera

          That's good.  although only a few R-held legislative districts can be really competitive.

          Also, is the possibility being floated that Mitch Landrieu run for Governor in 2015?

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:26:30 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Damnit you beat me to it (4+ / 0-)

      She's probably been one of THE most forceful proponents of the ACA in the entire country since passage, despite her antics beforehand.

      I really love Mary. She's a fantastic fighter for our state, her family has done an incredible amount of good for us and she knows her constituents.

      I've reached out, I'd like to host a fundraiser here in New Orleans similar to what we did for the President.

      I can't say enough good things about this woman. And if any of her fellow senators are reading this post (I'm looking at you Sen.-elect Heitkamp) come down and campaign with her.

      Actually, the optics of a few fossil fuel state senators all campaigning together for each other (Baucus, Begich, Heitkamp, Landrieu, Manchin & Tester) would just be fantastic.

      21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:00:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sweet, didn't know you were so involved. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:23:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Well she sort of has too... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Given she voted for it - to turn around and attack it would make it worse for her.  Come out and really sell it and make it as popular as you can to make it a positive for you, or at least mitigate the negative it is politically.  

        Running away from your votes is the worst thing a politician can do (outside of illegalities).  

        They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

        by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:38:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Jungle primary hurts her (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen

      A runoff I think would be devastating. She needs to keep ALL Dems off the ballot and avoid falling below 50%.

      21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 09:02:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Landrieu wins easily (0+ / 0-)

      She has come off as nothing but competent, ever since Katrina and then Deep Horizon and Isaac, she' has a lot of goodwill goin' on. And despite Republicans controlling pretty much all the state, other than Bill Cassidy they have almost no bench.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 04:48:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Landrieu has never won easily (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        And I doubt she ever will. That said, I agree she is more likely than not going to win.

        The American Petroleum Institute has come out to support her again after, IIRC, opposing her in 2008.

        More on that HERE. I wish I could find the video, but these ads are EVERYWHERE.

        I've even seen them run during LSU and Saints games in New Orleans, which is pretty much the most expensive tv buy in the state.

        There is a huge bench of Republicans in the state though (Jindal, Dardenne, Kennedy, Strain, Cassidy, Fleming, Landry).

        The Democratic bench for statewide office is limited to mayors (Landrieu, Holden and Glover) a few legislators (State Sen. Eric LaFleur & State Rep. Stephen Ortego) and businessmen (Jim Bernhard and others).

        21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

        by Stephen Schmitz on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:45:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  API Ads (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Apparently a lot of the Democratic Senators up for reelection are seeing similar ads in their states.

          A DKos post about it is here, along with videos.

          This ad plays well in Louisiana, I assume it'd do the same in Alaska. The other states, I don't think it is as important.

          21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

          by Stephen Schmitz on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:46:58 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I meant more (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          That she was sure to win rather than "easily" meaning "by a large margin".

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:15:07 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  More CA presidential numbers by district (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, sacman701

    CA-25: Obama 47.23%, Romney 49.02%
    CA-26: Obama 53.98%, Romney 43.73%
    CA-39: Obama 46.84%, Romney 50.48%

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 06:49:10 PM PST

  •  House comeback bids (5+ / 0-)

    I'd like to see most of those Democrats run again, though I'm somewhat skeptical that Critz can pull off a comeback unless Rothfus' vote record goes down very badly, as it might.  If Steve King makes a (hopefully) unwinnable Senate run that could help Vilsack, and hopefully Aguilar will have a somewhat clearer field than this year's clusterfuck.

    For the Republicans, most could try again though I think Tisei and Love probably had their best shots this year, and Patrick Murphy would probably be more vulnerable against someone other than Allen West; Murphy ran a great campaign, but a substantial number of his votes came from people who would be open to a Republican representative (Romney did win the district) but simply couldn't abide West.

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 06:52:19 PM PST

  •  Tulare County, CA statement of vote (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

             Obama         Romney  other             total
    21     2160            1945           70            4175
    22     30895         42871        1516           75282
    23     8697             12140       486           21323

    http://www.tularecoelections.org/

  •  I've done all the Obama numbers for (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, KingofSpades

    the legislative districts in Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas counties.  Obama's most significant underperformance: certain parts of Clackamas County, like West Linn.  Obama's most significant overperformance: outer east Portland, from about Irvington to the border with Gresham.  Hillsboro area in Washington County, where we picked up both of the house seats, also looks like a slight overperformance.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:09:33 PM PST

    •  so for those, the Obama percentages are (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, CF of Aus, tietack

      (bold are districts we picked up)
      HD-26: 50.3% (Republican held)
      27: 64.46%
      28: 61.61%
      29: 56.44%
      30: 58.71%
      31: 53.89%
      32: pending Tillamook precinct data
      33: 67.43%
      34: 65.76%
      35: 62.17%
      36: 82.03%
      37: 53.75% (Republican held)
      38: 67.2%
      39: 43.75%
      40: 54.52%
      41: 72.95%
      42: 91.74%
      43: 92.82%
      44: 85.92%
      45: 82.16%
      46: 82.61%
      47: 67.89%
      48: 62.88%
      49: 58.22%
      50: 56.19%
      51: 54.24%
      52: 52.85 (Republican held)
      here are some maps so you can visualize it a bit:

      Washington County districts:
      Photobucket

      Clackamas County districts:
      Photobucket

      Multnomah County districts:
      Photobucket

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 11:29:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Oak Grove district is that heavily D? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        Does Milwaukee vote as heavily D as Portland, or is it something else (i.e., eyeballing the maps, I'm guessing that a good part of Sellwood and East/Westmoreland are in 41).

        I hope; therefore, I can live.

        by tietack on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:55:23 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Milwaukie is the most Democratic city in (0+ / 0-)

          Clackamas County, I've got it at about D+13, compared to Lake Oswego at D+8, West Linn at D+5, Oregon City at D+1.

          It used to include much more of SE Portland before redistricting, and just about everything south of Milwaukie was in HD-40, making it more safely Democratic, but they changed that, pulling out of Portland and going further into Clackamas County.  As you can see, it's still very safely Democratic.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:41:41 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  if you were elected to the house (or senate) (0+ / 0-)

    what committees would you want a seat on?

    For me I would want to be on either Natural Resources/Energy and Natural Resources and/or Judiciary committees. Interior/Natural Resources is an important committee for environmental related issues and the Judiciary is an important one regarding constitutional and civil rights (and in the senate vetting supreme court justices).

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:25:26 AM PST

    •  Foreign Affairs and Space, Science and Technology (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fearlessfred14

      Kind of a weird mix, I know, but they're two of my stronger areas, as well as areas that don't always break down strictly along party lines (usually, but not always). I think I'd get very frustrated as a member of Congress with parties voting as monolithic blocs, and I'd want to seek out opportunities for bipartisanship where possible -- not giving away the farm, but making a sincere effort to court and include those with whom I disagreed, where possible.

      I'm less interested in the Space side of SST (Texas tends to dominate that committee because of Houston) than I am in the Science and Technology side, though it's all relative. I grew up reading about the space program (and on Star Wars, of course), and I support space exploration despite its costs, but I'm mostly interested in the largely untapped potential for the federal government to stimulate the economy by focusing not on projects that are shovel-ready, but on providing seed money for projects that could change the world if only they were given a chance to get off the ground. Solyndra was criticized as throwing good money after bad, and maybe there were problems with how it was handled, but I think it's a good idea to support R&D on promising new technologies, and it's reasonable to assume that not every single investment will pan out.

      The United States could make some major strides on issues like food costs, water shortages, energy costs, and waste management by exploring technologies and practices (some of which have been proven in other countries) like urban farming, desalination, algae biofuel, and anaerobic digestion. At the local and state level, there has been some consideration of all of those, but the federal government hasn't made any big investments in them. I see it as kind of a "spend a dime to get 10 bucks" situation. In theory, we could convert industrial brownfield in Detroit to high-density urban farmland, cultivate algae in a water farm on Lake Erie nearby, set up some processing plants and anaerobic digesters within the metro area, and be supplying cheap, sustainable food and fuel locally -- turning a dying export economy into a self-reliant boom town.

      That's getting into policy more than I like, but it's an example of why I'd be interested in SST, even though I don't talk about those issues much here. I have an interest in it, I see unused potential in it, and I see it as less polarizing than some other committees.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:48:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Judiciary, easily (0+ / 0-)

      Even though I'm not a lawyer and I don't really plan on going to law school ever, I think it's a good thing to have a non-legal perspective on judicial matters.

      My second choice would be Oversight and Government Reform.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 04:52:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ways and Means, Education and the Workforce (0+ / 0-)

      Given, as I've mentioned previously, my family ran a small private school (and much of the rest of my family is teachers), education and the education system (and its failures) are topics I'm very familiar with (although I won't write my opinions about education reform here, because they're out of the mainstream.) Ways and Means makes a good compliment to Education because it handles the governmental child care programs not handled by Education.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:25:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  is there a rule on "blue chip" committees (0+ / 0-)

        meaning that one can't be appointed to more than one? I can't recall the last person to be on both Ways and Means and Energy for instance.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:34:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not that I'm aware of (0+ / 0-)

          That's an interesting observation though; I'd want to know the answer to that, but I'm not sure where you could find a historical list of who served on those committees. It might just be casually discouraged, so that everyone can have spots on a committee they like. ^_^

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 12:07:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  ways and means (0+ / 0-)

      My background is mostly in taxation.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:18:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Science, Space, and Technology (0+ / 0-)

      and Natural Resources. Particularly SST, for the following reasons:

      1) We need more biologists on that committee, especially considering that the Republicans see fit to assign the likes of Neugebauer, Broun, and Akin to a committee dealing with research grants.

      2) Aside from the aformentioned wingnuts, it's probably a committee where some bipartisan cooperation would be possible. I'd be a pretty liberal Congressman on a number of issues, but I'd prefer to be able to work across the aisle.

      3) WI-02 has a rather large and growing biotech sector, so SST would be an appropriate committee for my constituency.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:28:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site