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Republican Rep. Jo Ann Emerson
Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R)
It's our second resignation of the 113th Congress—and the 113th Congress hasn't even begun yet. Veteran GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson says she will depart the House in February to take a job as head of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, a lobbying organization for rural utility companies. Democrats are trying to frame Emerson's departure as the loss of yet another "moderate" Republican lawmaker, but to call Emerson a "moderate" shows just how far to the right her party has lurched. She's departed from conservative orthodoxy on a few occasions but has otherwise been a reliable vote for the GOP. And yet, just given trends over the last couple of decades, we're likely to wind up with a replacement even further to the right.

So what happens next? Emerson's resignation will trigger a special election in her 8th District, of course, and in Missouri, nominations for specials are handled by a committee of party leaders—there's no primary. That'll give Emerson a chance to influence who her successor is, but who might that be?

The Great Mentioner has already kicked into high gear regarding possible replacements for Emerson: Analyst Jeff Smith thinks  Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, former Treasurer and failed 2010 Senate candidate Sarah Steelman, outgoing state Sens. Jason Crowley and Kevin Engler, and state party executive director Lloyd Smith could all make a go of it. Nathan Gonzales offers the same list, adding state Rep. Todd Richardson but also saying that Kinder and Smith look to have the inside track. (Both have ties to the Emerson family: Smith was Emerson's former chief of staff, and Kinder worked for Emerson's late husband Bill, whom she succeeded in Congress.) Joshua Miller tosses on a couple more: state Reps. Jason Smith and state Sen.-elect Wayne Wallingford.

And if you were wondering, I wouldn't hold out much hope for an upset possibility: We haven't crunched the most recent election results yet, but the 8th District went 60-38 for John McCain in 2008, which means it's extremely red territory. Emerson did draw a well-funded challenge from Iraq vet Tommy Sowers in 2010, but despite spending $1.6 million, he took less than 29 percent of the vote. If anything, I'd guess the 2012 numbers were worse for Team Blue, so this is really going to be a GOP-only affair. No matter what, though, we'll be following future developments here closely—because we always do!

10:20 AM PT: Here's some empirical support for the point we're trying to make about Emerson's supposed moderation. Using Prof. Keith Poole's DW-Nominate scores, it's possible to evaluate where on the spectrum of the entire House of Representatives Emerson has fallen ideologically, Congress by Congress. The number represents Emerson's rank overall, with 1 being the most liberal member:

105th: 255th
106th: 256th
107th: 254th
108th: 247th
109th: 241st
110th: 271st
111th: 283rd
112th: 218th

As you can see, Emerson was always to the right of the median member (which would be defined as no. 217.5), lurching even further to the right in the 110th and 111th Congresses (when many more Democrats were elected, giving them control of the House). In the 112th, she snapped back—all the way to dead center, as it happens, because of the opposite phenomenon: So many more Republicans, particularly hyper-conservative tea partiers, won in 2010. So if you still want to call Emerson a "moderate," it's only because of the wild shift right-ward her entire party's undergone.


Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:27 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  One of the last (13+ / 0-)

    Semi pro labor Republicans... losing her and LaTourette leaves very few of them. Don Young and Lobiando are 2 I can think of off hand but beyond that....

    Hey you, dont tell me theres no hope at all Together we stand, divided we fall.

    by marcvstraianvs on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:33:49 AM PST

  •  Excellant Opportunity for the TeaP's to put in (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a2nite, sable, MetroGnome, wader

    their Patriot!!!

    Hope they're on This.

    Notice: This Comment © 2012 ROGNM

    by ROGNM on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:37:34 AM PST

  •  Rural Electrification = Moochers and Parasites? nt (6+ / 0-)

    There’s always free cheddar in a mousetrap, baby

    by bernardpliers on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:39:17 AM PST

    •  That was one of FDR's socialist programs (5+ / 0-)

      I wonder how the rural Republicans reconcile that with their Tea Party ideology.

      Don't look back, something may be gaining on you. - L. "Satchel" Paige

      by arlene on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:27:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Revolving door story (4+ / 0-)

      Yes, the somewhat moderate Emerson will be replaced by a more conservative ideologue (possibly her former chief of staff Lloyd Smith or current Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder is Smith says no), but the real story is the old revolving door.  She left to work for her top donor of her congressional tenure.

      Btw, MO-8 is a little more blue after redistricting, but neither Claire McCaskill nor Jay Nixon beat their GOP opponents in MO-8 last year while they routed them statewide.

      •  Are you sure? (0+ / 0-)

        Because I saw a load of blue counties for Democrats in the region covered by Emerson's districts.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:22:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  yes. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sapelcovits, MichaelNY, wader

          Those blue counties are also some of the least populated counties (like 5-10,000 people total).  The population centers are GOP strongholds like Poplar Bluff (I'm from there), Cape Girardeau, Rolla, West Plains.  Farmington is barely blue sometimes.  Jefferson county can add some Dem votes, but it is a swing county and serves a bellwether for the state.

          •  Nixon did pretty well in (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Ectoras, MichaelNY

            Giradeau both times. As did Clinton in the 1990s. Both did pretty well in the boot too.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:32:17 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  the boot hockey-sticked it big time (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, MichaelNY

              3 of the Bootheel counties (Mississippi/New Madrid/Pemiscot) voted for Romney/Kinder while voting for Nixon/Claire/Kander/Koster/Zweifel. So they voted for every candidate that won MO

              The Bootheel is also a very low turnout area.

              Stuff that happened in the 90s is not always true for the 2010s. The swing that started there on the federal level has covered the state level in the last 10 years too.

              The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

              by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:38:09 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Another woman leaving the GOP Congress (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    My Spin, MsLiz, askew, MichaelNY

    Though as David says curiously in a fashion which minimizes the chances of a 'tea party primary' resulting in another Todd Akin or Richard Mourdock situation.

    Follow Me on Twitter! https://twitter.com/#!/ZeddRebel

    by TarantinoDork on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:40:09 AM PST

  •  While it still is red, the district is more (13+ / 0-)

    blue than it was in 2010 because of redistricting and the addition of Jefferson County, a blue collar, exurban area that went for Obama in 2008, and St. Genevieve County.  Sowers lost big in 2010, but it was a terrible year for Dems and a more red district.  (Jeff County went for Romney this year, but it was relatively close).  

    This is a red district, but Jeff County and St. Genevieve County were part of Gephardt's and Carnahan's district, and their addition give Dems a better chance than Sower's vote total indicates.    

     

    Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

    by TomP on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:42:54 AM PST

    •  The 60-38 figure, though (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Philpm, TomP, Skaje, duckhunter, jncca, MichaelNY

      Is post-redistricting. It was 62-36 under the old lines. So a bit worse, but even now, it's still terrible.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:59:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Is that for President? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, Ectoras, MichaelNY

        I think you also might find that Nixon won the governor vote (or came close) in the district.  Southern Misssouri has more than its fair share of racists, so I think the Obama vote is not a good proxy for a white Democrat.  But I agree overall that it is a very red district.  

        Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

        by TomP on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 10:27:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, president (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Folks doing some back-of-the-envelope think McCaskill may have beaten Akin. But the GOP gets to hand-pick a candidate here. It won't be anyone like Akin, who was almost once-in-a-generation epically bad.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 04:43:01 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  she didn't beat Akin in MO8 (3+ / 0-)

            I've looked at the precinct results in Jefferson County. The margin with the whole precincts is Akin by 5013

            the split precinct (precincts split between MO3 and MO8) vote is Claire 4997/Akin 3564/Dine 571.

            The votes aren't there to put her over the top in MO8. Put the percentage margin is probably a bit under "Akin by 1.5%"

            So he's ran about 8% ahead of his statewide average in MO8.

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 05:12:49 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Thank you for noting that... (8+ / 0-)

      I'm really really tired of the Missouri Democratic Party writing off Congressional districts as lost causes and not even bothering to find candidates. This special election seems to me to be a special opportunity, maybe even a trial run for the 2014 elections. Dems have some momentum now, and the obstructionist TP'ers have fallen out of favor. Maybe Sowers should try again. But, please, let's not just punt on another district, okay, people?

      Life's a dance you learn as you go; sometimes you lead, sometimes you follow.

      by gloriasb on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:07:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sowers is good (0+ / 0-)

        Tommy Sowers probably has higher name rec than any other Democrat we could come up with short of a Carnahan. He ran a strong campaign and raised a boatload of money. Since Democratic leaders get to pick, they should go with Sowers.

        Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

        by arealmc on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:26:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  however... (14+ / 0-)

    ...since there have been a fair number of Republican candidates whose campaigns have unexpected "imploded," the Democrats, in this seat, and in ALL Congressional seats going forward, need to be sure to put up a credible candidate in case the Republican candidate ends up self-destructing, like Missouri's recent Republican senate candidate (what was his name again...Todd Akin?).

    While we need to be realistic, Democrats should NEVER just assume that a seat will automatically go to a Republican, no matter how red the area or what the voter registration numbers are.

  •  That part of the state (6+ / 0-)

    is red enough to make one's eyes hurt.  There is no real way we'll be competitive for this seat.

    Undecided voters are the biggest idiots on the planet. - Brian Griffin

    by Philpm on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:46:31 AM PST

    •  Yeah, it includes the entire bootheel (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Philpm, duckhunter

      And you really can't get any more conservative than the bootheel - it's where Rush Limpballs is from FFS.

      Also includes Rolla, where I lived and went to college for 4 years (Miners represent!) and that's a wingnut stronghold too. You'd think a town whose entire local economy is dependent on a state university would want to make sure students can afford to go to college and that the school has the funding it needs.

      "How come when it’s us, it’s an abortion, and when it’s a chicken, it’s an omelette?" - George Carlin

      by yg17 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 10:01:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Bootheel (6+ / 0-)
        And you really can't get any more conservative than the bootheel - it's where Rush Limpballs is from FFS.
        But the bootheel did vote for for Claire McCaskill over Todd Akin:

        http://www.cnn.com/...

        “I believe all Southern liberals come from the same starting point--race. Once you figure out they are lying to you about race, you start to question everything.” ― Molly Ivins

        by RoIn on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 10:33:23 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I rode in a plane ... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TomP, JGibson, Ectoras, MichaelNY

        next to a UM-Rolla professor just before the 2004 election (Environmental Engineering, IIRC).

        We talked about the election, and it was telling that he said all the people he worked with were voting for Kerry, and practically everyone he knew in the greater Rolla area outside of his work was voting for Bush.

        I think there's a lot of resentment among the so-called "Townies" in these areas that drives the politics. Kirksville (home of Truman State) and Maryville (home of Northwest Mo State) are similar.

        Cutting off their noses to spite their faces.

      •  I thought (0+ / 0-)

        the drug-addled gasbag was from Cape Girardeau.

        You can't keep a mighty tree alive (much less expect it to thrive) by only spritzing the fine leaves at its tippy-top. The fate of the whole tree depends on nurturing the grassroots. - Jim Hightower

        by PSzymeczek on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:19:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  losing a 'friend to DC' (4+ / 0-)

    A local dem DC advocacy group called her a good friend from her work as former chair of the Financial Services Appropriations subcommittee. She had been helpful to DC's efforts in Congress, working to help remove GOP riders placed on DC budget bills (guns, health care, charter schools, etc).

  •  Nice of her to do this to her (19+ / 0-)

    constituents who just voted her back into office. Let alone her state, which now has to pony up the $ to hold the special election. Yes, this could have been a recent development--but how many jobs of this nature are created and filled in less than a month? This has been in the works for far longer than that, I would bet.

    "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

    by bryduck on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:51:30 AM PST

  •  sowers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ectoras

    Anyone have any idea if sowers is interested

  •  As Mr Checkov from the Evil Republican universe (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pucklady, MrLiberal

    observed, "If the representative resigns then we all move up in rank".

    Slow thinkers - keep right

    by Dave the Wave on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:56:09 AM PST

  •  Congress's loss is K Street's gain (5+ / 0-)

    The revolving door snags another one. Why don't these people ever go back to the states where they claim to live?

  •  what about the wildly successful ground game? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    xsonogall, Ectoras

    it was used to get out votes... why isn't it being used to win back sanity in our statehouses, Congress, Senate, locally?

  •  Why not support legislation to ban congresspeople (9+ / 0-)

    from lobbying for 10 years?  For that matter, civil and military personnel, above a certain grade, as well?  From my contacts with folks of a less progressive persuasion than myself, I have a feeling we might be able to build a consensus on that issue.

    Ancora Impara--Michelangelo

    by aravir on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 10:08:09 AM PST

  •  I'm from Missouri and now believe there (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a2nite

    IS a god!

  •  She was sane. A shame. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AussieforObama2ndterm, MichaelNY

    A conservative, yes, but a sane one.

    British guy with a big interest in US politics; -1.88, -4.05. A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar. The bartender says "Hey Mitt".

    by General Goose on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 10:29:35 AM PST

  •  Number of female GOP representatives (4+ / 0-)

    likely to decrease even further, from 19 to 18 now.  By comparison, there are 58 female Dem representatives.

  •  Interesting (5+ / 0-)

    that a conservative member of Congress would want to be the head of and the voice of an organization that has its origins in the rural electrification program that was one of the true success stories of the New Deal. You know, that "government initiative" where tax money was used to transform the lives of millions of rural Americans, including many of my relatives.

    Guess that ideology can only go so far.

    As I sail against the tide, for what I believe is right.

    by Toes on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 10:31:18 AM PST

  •  Does the GOP return favors? (0+ / 0-)

      Because they lost the senate when they went away from the Palin rec'd candidate Sarah Steelman. No Todd Akin, no senate.

    Good for us, bad for them. I wonder if they figure they owe her a house seat. Plus it would burnish her resume for her third try at the senate in 2016.

       As weird as Missouri is, Warren or Clinton coattails could help a woman who has nothing policy-wise in common with them.

     

    When people don't recognize your generousity for what it is, and take advantage of you. When they don't admit, you don't owe them anything, They are the worst pieces of shit on earth

    by Marcellus Shale on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 10:32:44 AM PST

  •  Funny and sad that Smith throws................... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Rod "you never said 'green balloons' so I beat you unconcious" Jetton's name out there.  

    Does Brock Olivo
    live in the district?  He could have actually voted in an election by now.

    I wish they would run an Akin-like fool.

  •  I hear Ed Martin is considering a move to......... (0+ / 0-)

    Jefferson County ;7)

  •  quick numbers (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dufffbeer, ArkDem14

    there's only one county split in the district (Jefferson County) and in Jefferson County, 17 precincts are completely in the 8th and 8 precincts are split between the 3rd and 8th. So figuring out the general mood of the district isn't hard, although precise numbers may be hard to figure out.

    For Senate: Akin won by under 5000 votes, 48-46.
    For Governor: Spence won by under 4000 votes, 49-48
    For Secretary of State: Schoeller won 57-39 (the closest statewide election)

    As for the split precincts, it looks like they have 5000 votes in the 8th, so not enough to flip the district for Senate or Governor.

    District split by TV market:
    Cape Girardeau: 45% of voters
    St. Louis: 27% of voters
    Springfield: 26% of voters
    Memphis: Only Pemiscot County (6000 votes)

    Akin won Girardeau TV 51-44. Spence won it 51-46.5.
    Claire won the STL TV part of the district 53-40. Nixon won it 55-42.
    Akin won Springfield TV 50-42. Spence won it 54-43.

    I'd imagine that the race would be front and center on Girardeau TV. In the background on St. Louis TV. And not particularly mentioned in Springfield.

    There's two areas where Ds go very well, relatively. 4 Bootheel counties (which typically went Emerson easily as Bill and JoAnn had ties downthere) and a line of counties including Jefferson, Ste. Genevieve, St. Francois, Washington, Iron and Reynolds counties.

    The first enclave is not known for high voter turnout. The second gets their TV from St. Louis

    The Special Election Chaos Theory should be remembered here. But it's not like there'll be anything else to cover in March/April 2013, right?

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:05:04 AM PST

    •  There's nothing in the Paducah, KY (0+ / 0-)

      market? I seem to recall seeing some of the clips covering the Senate race from there. Or is that too far north?

      How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:03:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  going to the TV guide listings (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        the local stations in Cape Girardeau are WSIL / KFVS / KBSI / WPSD

        So, Cape and Paducah are in the same market. Although i'd imagine the focus of news for each station differs.

        And some cities have it made for local news. Here's the local channel listings on Poplar Bluff TV (with cities of license):

        KPOB (Poplar Bluff, satellite of WSIL in Harrisburg, IL)
        KMOV (St Louis)
        WPSD (Paducah)
        KAIT (Jonesboro)
        KBSI (Cape Girardeau)
        KFVS (Cape Girardeau)

        But yes, the maximum TV range for MO8 ads is from SW MO (Springfield market) to Southern Illinois (STL/Cape markets).. covering 5 states (MO, IL, AR, KY, TN)... and more states if someone has money to burn and advertises in Memphis to hit TVs in Pemiscot County for no reason

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:21:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  maybe she is mad she got shut out (0+ / 0-)

    Maybe she expected to get a leadership position. Seems pretty rotten to do this right after an election. I looked and the last time the democrats got over 30% in this district was 1998.
    The democrats shouldn't spend a dime here.

    •  Doubleblink (6+ / 0-)

      is there something else they can spend money on in March and April 2013?

      JoAnn Emerson has been in Congress since 1996. Her husband was in Congress from 1981 to 1996. Over that time, they built a lot of ties to Democrats downthere, mainly the "we'll give your projects money" kind of ties.

      JoAnn Emerson's current husband is an attorney and a Democrat as well.

      This will be the first stand-alone Missouri special election for Congress since 1959. The Republican nominee is guaranteed to not have as much of a crossover appeal or notability. Not to mention that nominee won't have to win a primary, thus not introducing themselves until they're nominated.

      So, is there a great harm in finding one of the few Dems in the area with some variant of credibility as a lottery ticket?

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:19:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think if any momentum is to be gained in this race, it needs to first come from Democrats in the district finding a credible candidate.  But if that happens, and it looks like there is any potential of the race moving in a positive direction, the national party should be standing by ready to help out with some $$.

        •  kind of like a kickstarter (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          but Special Elections do weird things

          for example, special election in Cape Girardeau for the state house to replace an R who got into legal trouble in February 2008, the final result was R50, D43, L7. Then the Ds didn't contest it in Nov2008 or 2010 or 2012.

          The Libertarian in that special election is named Steve Kinder, so the same last name as the Cape native Lt. Governor.

          MO8 is also in a unique spot because parts of it gave McCain a higher percentage than Bush. Although Obama won 2 counties in MO8 in 2008 (Iron and Ste. Genevieve)

          The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

          by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:24:52 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  How about a Carnahan? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    I'm mad as hell that Russ Carnahan primaried Clay in the 1st district, but maybe he'd have a chance in this one. Didn't his old 3rd district cover Jefferson County? He's sort of political toast around here because of that lame-ass move against Clay, but maybe, if he regained a seat for the D's, he could find redemption. What do y'all think?

    Life's a dance you learn as you go; sometimes you lead, sometimes you follow.

    by gloriasb on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:11:58 AM PST

    •  yeah (0+ / 0-)

      the 8th includes the parts of the 3rd that he didn't do very well in back in 2010. It also includes Rolla, where he grew up. And parts of the area where he does have family ties

      but the D nominee is going to actually live in the district, so remove all the Carnahans you've heard of from the list. If Russ took a pass on MO2, he wouldn't then go for MO8

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:14:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Robin Carnahan (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Isn't Robin Carnahan's residence on the family farm outside Rolla? That would put her inside the district quite easily. I would suspect that her approval ratings are pretty high--she did a good job as SOS and there have been a lot of nice articles about the family recently, since, as of 2013, there will be no elected Carnahan officials in the state for the first time in a long time. I suspect she might even be able to outpoll Nixon and McCaskill, especially if she got a crappy opponent (aka-Sarah Steelman).  

        According to the official bio on her campaign website, "Today, in addition to her duties as Secretary of State, Carnahan continues to manage her family’s 900-acre farm and cattle operation near Rolla." ("About Robin" page of RobinCarnahan.com)

        Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

        by arealmc on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:35:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Russ Carnahan... (0+ / 0-)

      ran for the semo seat in 1990.  Got beat pretty bad by the late Rep. Bill Emerson.  No way he wins after representing "super liberal" STL.

      •  there is overlap between old MO3 and MO8 (0+ / 0-)

        but the MO3 parts of the new MO8 voted for Ed Martin over Russ in 2010.

        The 1990 map shows off the fruits of the work done by the Emersons to siphon Dem votes in that area. Russ lost 57-43 and the four full counties* he won were won with 50-52%, and he lost multiple typically D counties in the Bootheel.

        (* - Franklin County was split at the time)

        Relying on the MO8 results to get an accurate picture of the district is not entirely accurate, but the Emersons reigned for long enough that the district became solidly Republican over their time in office.

        It's a 13 seed v. a 4 seed, at best.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:43:18 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  You should be mad at Clay, not Carnahan. (8+ / 0-)

      Clay (and Cleaver) screwed Carnahan. They put themselves ahead of the Democratic Party during redistricting. Had they helped Nixon sustain the veto, the map would have been drawn by a judge. We may well be looking at a 233-202 Congress today instead of 234-201.

      Clay deserved the primary challenge from Carnahan and I would have voted for Russ if I lived in that district.

      22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Re-Elect Betty Sutton and David Price!

      by liberal intellectual on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:38:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  there's no guarantee that a court map would be 5-3 (0+ / 0-)

        Judging by the court maps i've seen for the state legislature, which have pretty much secluded Dems to a small portion of the overall districts.

        I was disappointed that the judges didn't draw the map. But most of the differences between a judge map and the passed map are in line drawing. The Judges would have probably created a safe MO5 of all Jackson County and Democratic parts of Clay County, while moving Lafayette/Saline/Ray into MO6 or keeping them in MO4.

        The matter of how the judges would have drawn the STL area districts is a great hypothetical. The requirements for drawing MO1 are still unclear to me. I don't think MO1 was majority-African American in 2002 (it was around 47-48%). If there's no majority, I don't think there's a legal problem with reducing that percentage a bit.

        But we had a State Senate map drawn by judges get invalidated because the Judges didn't know the Missouri Constitutional provisions. So I could see them thinking they had to pack MO1 because of VRA. Or thinking that they had to put all of STL City in MO1, which pairs Russ and Lacy, and creates a MO2 that could be a tossup depending on the border between MO1 and MO2 in STL County.

        Russ did decide to not run TV, but he did mail talking mailers. Then he lost 2-1, instead of taking a chance with MO2. His mistake.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 02:04:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  A shame for rural coops (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, Calamity Jean, MichaelNY

    Electric coops could play a big role in solving climate change by bringing more de-centralized renewables to rural areas. Instead, their political arm is becoming more conservative and acting as a puppet of the coal industry. It doesn't serve their members well. I would imagine their new Republican leader will continue the downward spiral.

  •  Who stole my 50-state strategy (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RainyDay, arlene

    At the heart of the 50-state strategy was that you contest everything, and vigorously, that you don't give up on a district just because it's voted against you in the past.

    Didn't Kathy Hochul win in a redder district? Yes, she then lost, but you have a low-turnout election and if you are fired up you can win anywhere.

    http://www.danablankenhorn.com

    by Dana Blankenhorn on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:28:20 AM PST

    •  Hochul's district wasn't this red (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      I think the last special elections we won that were in this red of a district were MS1 (with no party labels on the ballot and a regional split) and LA6.

      There is a possibility that the R nominee is making his first campaign, which could activate the chaos theory. Although typically New York State Assemblymen are the most likely to be victimized by the Special Election Chaos Theory.

      There are multiple Ds in the State House from this district and one state Senator (I think.. he lives in the one split county). There are several Ds who didn't lose their last election too. And probably a few D attorneys who don't have anything planned for their March/Aprils anyways.

      As for low-turnout elections, the most D parts of the district had a turnout of under 60% of registered voters in November. So that's not helpful. I'd imagine the special election turnout will skew a bit towards areas around Cape Girardeau.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:19:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Why the hell did they run if they wouldn't commit? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Calamity Jean

    Yea, best and brightest my ass.  They should have to pay for the special elections to replace them.  

    If money is speech, then speech must be money.

    by dkmich on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:34:45 AM PST

    •  yeah (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits

      the cost is gonna get abutted a little bit by having municipal elections on the same day, but it wouldn't shock me if most voters didn't live in a city so that'll increase costs.

      So, it could be worse. Plus this election means people will vote in their local elections too. Maybe

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:20:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  The median number is 218 (0+ / 0-)

    With 435 points, the median number will be exactly 218.   Think about it:  if you had 5 points, the median would be point number 3, not 2.5.

    What would be helpful in your analysis is to see how many members of each party there are in congress.  If there is a Democratic congress, she will obviously be further to the right.  How far to the right of the left-most Republican is she in each congress?

    •  let's see (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Cosecant

      106th: 43rd most moderate
      107th: 41st most moderate
      108th: 38th most moderate
      109th: 38th most moderate
      110th: 30th most moderate
      111th: 21st most moderate
      112th: 24th most moderate

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 02:15:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  and a guess at the 113th (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        if she'd stayed is 20th most moderate.

        LaTourette, Dold, Tim Johnson, and Platts were all more moderate than her, and I can't think of a single freshman Republican who will be to her left.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 02:17:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  widows (6+ / 0-)

    The widows' caucus is down to just Capps and Matsui now, with Emerson resigning and MBM losing.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:57:02 AM PST

  •  She's resigning. (0+ / 0-)

    Whose baby did SHE father?

  •  There is some doubts about the date of election (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    apparently the requirement is 10 weeks between the date the election is called and the date of the election.

    Which means the earliest date of the election is April 16th.

    The catch is that the regularly set dates of elections are April 2nd and August 6th. The Missouri legislature removed the June elections to save money.

    Unless they choose to hold the election on their own sometime in-between April and August. Which might require some legal action. (Also, if Peter Kinder gets the nomination and wins, there'll be a legal fight about appointing the next Lt. Governor (who'd be a Democrat) or holding a special election, presumably in November 2013)

    So six months without a Representative would be a pretty sad way to "repay" the district that elected an Emerson for 32 years.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 02:57:36 PM PST

  •  I love VoteView/DWNominate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    One nitpicky note - because of replacements, retirements and resignations, sometimes the median is different. E.g. in the 111th House, there were 445 ratings, making the median 222.5.  This doesn't really affect what you've written, but .... well, it's a nitpick.

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