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U.S. Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney speaks at his Illinois primary night rally in Schaumburg, Illinois, March 20, 2012. REUTERS/Jim Young (UNITED STATES  - Tags: POLITICS ELECTIONS)
If Mitt Romney's campaign team had just read Daily Kos, they would have known they were about to lose, but instead they listened to their own pollster's internal numbers—numbers that turned out to be hilariously wrong.
In an exclusive to The New Republic, a Romney aide has provided the campaign’s final internal polling numbers for six key states, along with additional breakdowns of the data, which the aide obtained from the campaign’s chief pollster, Neil Newhouse. Newhouse himself then discussed the numbers with TNR.

The numbers include internal polls conducted on Saturday, November 3, and Sunday, November 4, for Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire.

Here's what the numbers showed:
  • Colorado: Romney +2.5 (actual: Obama +5)
  • Iowa: tie (actual: Obama +6)
  • Minnesota: Obama +4 (actual: Obama +8)
  • New Hampshire: Romney +3.5 (actual: Obama +6)
  • Pennsylvania: Obama +3 (actual: Obama +5)
  • Wisconsin: Obama +4 (actual: Obama +7)

So Romneyland's internal polling—which undoubtedly cost them hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars—only picked the correct winner in three of those six states. And two of those three weren't actual tossup states, so of the four actual battleground states in the list (Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin), Romney's polling only got Wisconsin right.

And if you just look at the margins, the polling was at least as terrible: these polls were skewed in Romney's direction by an average of more than five points each. That's just abysmal, especially given the sheer tonnage of public data showing Romney's numbers were wrong. Ten minutes on Google would have been more valuable than these polls—and it would have been free.

Combine these numbers with the reports that Romney's internal polling also showed he was going to win Virginia and Florida, and it's not hard to imagine how shocked Romney must have been when he lost. It turns out he really was trapped inside a bubble, living in a world completely disconnected from reality. And to borrow one of his favorite phrases: he really did build that.

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Comment Preferences

  •  This place is like a pit bull (20+ / 0-)

    that latched onto Romney's leg and can't let go.  

    Time to move on and worry about the ones that got away.

  •  Holy Crow! (21+ / 0-)

    I had thought they were just bullshitting.

    But...

    o.m.g!!!

    It's worse - they're worse! - than I even imagined!

    "The most potent weapon in the hands of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed." ~ Steven Biko

    by Marjmar on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:34:56 AM PST

  •  cant' wait to see newhouse (11+ / 0-)


    as the lead pollster for the next GOP presidential nominee.  Nothing like rewarding success!

    "Kossacks are held to a higher standard. Like Hebrew National hot dogs." - blueaardvark

    by louisev on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:36:41 AM PST

    •  I thought I heard a fleeting comment (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      malibu1964, chloris creator, MBishop1

      on the news earlier this week that Jeb Bush was meeting with Newhouse (presumably with an eye on a future Bush presidential run).  I might have hallucinated but, if true, all I can say is: Please Proceed.

      I vote Democratic because I am a woman with self-respect , who rejects bigotry of all kinds, subscribes to science, believes in universal health care, embraces unions, and endorses smart internationalist foreign policy. Twitter: @HawaiiDelilah

      by Delilah on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 08:46:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm surprised they didn't have... (10+ / 0-)

    Rmoney +3 in California.

    The Republican brand: "Consequences, schmonsequences, as long as I'm rich"

    by D in Northern Virginia on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:40:57 AM PST

  •  I bet they made bad assumptions (7+ / 0-)

    I betcha they assumed that their base was more motivated and solid than it was.  They also assumed that Obama's base was unmotivated.  I think this is Karl Rover was so shocked at the results.  Also, Rover assumed voter suppression tactics would have a larger impact than it did.

    All in all, the GOP was out of touch as usual with what really is going on in the country.

    "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Rianne Eisler

    by noofsh on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:41:24 AM PST

    •  Read the article. (6+ / 0-)

      Seems as though they focused on voters identifying as most enthusiastic.  In their polling Romney did much better.  But what the article doesn't describe was what percentage these "enthusiastic" voters were of the whole. If  80% of a given voter population is enthusiastic - great!  but if that comprises 20 percent - not so great.  

      Not having any experience I would guess that the voter by enthusiasm chart is pretty much a bell curve.  Aim at other end and your aim would be off.  That big fat middle may not be skipping to the booth but they probably will drive.

      GIGO rules hear.  If I were a candidate I would be darned sure I would want the details of how someone is drawing up numbers. Shame on them if they didn't.

      "You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity"

      by newfie on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:52:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  African American churches were going to sit it out (5+ / 0-)

      Because of Obama's stance on gay marriage--that's what the GOP was telling donors and candidates here in Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the GOTV effort the churches organized here surpassed that of 2008, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Romney's internal polling models seriously underestimated African American turnout.

      •  I would be Romney's polls (0+ / 0-)

        underestimated everybody except white males.

        And that would give you pretty much the numbers they got.

        Of course, if they had NOT done that, Romney would have fired them and found some other pollster who would give him better numbers.

        He didn't want to hear he was losing - that didn't fit his preconceived notions of how the world works.

  •  Wasn't the real problem in predicting the turnout (2+ / 0-)

    demographics?

    For them, they had to decide if turnout would continue the trend from 2004 or bounce back to 2004.

    In hindsight, it turned out to be "trend" rather than "bounce" but before the election... not a sure thing, not even with 10 minutes of Google.

    The Romney campaign had to decide where to devote resources.

    With "trend" there's no avenue to winning no matter how they deploy, so they decided to deploy on the chance that "bounce" was the real model.

    Did they really have a choice?

    •  I assert that some of them knew... (10+ / 0-)

      ...the real and ugly truth: that Team Vulture/Voucher had no shot at 270 EVs right after the 2nd Debate and that Superstorm Sandy (simply because POTUS was going to competently do his job and focus on addressing the catastrophe) eliminated any chance they had at "changing the dynamic."

      But they could not admit that.

      To do so might have been enough not just to swing North Carolina to POTUS, but perhaps hand the Speaker's Gavel back to Leader Pelosi.

      They did the GOP a favor lying loudly and confidently, IMHO.

      When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

      by Egalitare on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:01:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ham Rove et al. were so sure (7+ / 0-)

      that black voters would not turn out and young voters would not turn out in the same numbers they did in 2008.

      And they were right.

      They turned out in HIGHER numbers.

      "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."
      Four More Years! How sweet it is!!!

      by TrueBlueMajority on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:02:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  the comparisons to 2004 always seemed crazy to me (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mmacdDE

      in an election between an incumbant president and a stiff, tone-deaf rich white guy from Massachusettes, why would Obama be cast in the John Kerry role?

      i agree with some others that some of this is spin in the final days of the campaign, where the trailer will never admit that they are down. but there is definitely a bubble dynamic here. it exposes Romney as exactly what we thought he was: a rich guy who only talks to other rich people, and in the process convinced himself that what they think of him is what everyone must think of him, not because their opinion are valid, but because they're the only ones he can imagine.

  •  You mean -- Mitt's pollsters were paid to... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    newfie, Seeds, mmacdDE

    ...pull a Gallup?

    NEW PALINDROMIC METAPHOR MEANING TO MAKE A PREDICTION THAT IS ASTOUNDINGLY OFF TARGET: "Pull a Gallup!" As in: "The weatherman said yesterday would be sunny and mild, but we got a foot of snow! Boy, did he pull a Gallup!"

    by Obama Amabo on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:43:38 AM PST

  •  And he sold us on having Smart Savvy CEO Acumen (16+ / 0-)

    Those of us from Massachusetts who had a bit more experience with Romney, we knew better.   There were reasons a slim majority of us (in MA) elected him with some hope, and there were reasons he walked out of office a few years later with a public approval rating mired down in the 30s (despite the economy being pretty good, in 2006-2007).

  •  A fool and his money (9+ / 0-)

    are soon parted.

    "Political ends as sad remains will die." - YES 'And You and I' ; -8.88, -9.54

    by US Blues on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:48:56 AM PST

  •  Jed, you stated in conclusion.... (16+ / 0-)

    "It turns out he really was trapped inside a bubble, living in a world completely disconnected from reality...."

    That is a perfect summation to this insane clown posse of a campaign, because that is exactly the way Romney's entire life is run!  And I said early on that his campaign mirrored his own self quite accurately:  disconnected from reality, sheltered, do minimal work and let money do the hard labor.

    It is pathetic and disgusting - but no surprise - how badly and pathetically and disingenuously Romney's campaign was run:  it was no surprise because it was a mirror of the candidate.

    Buy Aldus Shrugged : The Antidote to Ayn Rand, and tear Ayn and the GOP new orifices. Plus, I get a small royalty, and Jeff Bezos and his employees get the rest. Not a bad deal, as CEO Bezos is not much of a dick, relatively speaking. @floydbluealdus1

    by Floyd Blue on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:50:22 AM PST

  •  GOP trapped in many psychobabble bubbles (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueMajority, native

    Poor understanding the electorate, economic and tax policy (downward spiral), use of military power and foreign relations, immigration policy, role of actual science in policy-making, separation of church and state.  

    And hiring actors for the Senate and presidency.  

    West. No further west. All sea. --Robert Grenier

    by Nicolas Fouquet on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:50:23 AM PST

  •  But the media tells me it's a coin-flip! (9+ / 0-)

    I will NEVER forgive the news media for insisting the election was 'too close to call' for all those months, driving us all nuts, and then it turned out to be what we should have known - that it was anything BUT close. Their credibility has taken an unrepairable hit.

    I don't include FAUX and their completely slanted predictions in that - everyone with a brain knows they're liars who only want to keep their brainwashed viewers living in the carefully crafted fantasy world. Very similar to 'The Truman Show', the more that I think about it.

    "And the Tea Party shall be maimed forever, becoming a mere spirit of malice that gnaws itself in the shadows, but can never grow or take shape again. And so a great evil of this world will be removed." - Gandalf

    by Fordmandalay on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:50:55 AM PST

  •  If they were really smart, they'd start right now (11+ / 0-)

    trying to figure out why they're going to lose in 2016.

  •  They had to have been push polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueMajority

    There is absolutely no excuse for a pollster on a national level being this hilariously wrong.  

  •  I think this is all just so much BS! (8+ / 0-)

    The day before the election, I posted the following about the Romney campaign's leak of some of their supposed internal polling numbers:

    This is great news!

    I've been following politics for nearly 50 years, and while I suppose there's a first time for everything, I have never heard a winning campaign leaking specific internals on election eve, whereas plenty of losing campaigns have done it.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    It's either one heck of a coincidence, or the fact that this was one more losing campaign leaking supposed internal polling numbers to buck up its supporters shows they knew they were losing.  If their internal polling showed them ahead, it's because they WANTED the internal polling to show them ahead.  They sure can't admit now that they knew they were behind or the folks who were making six and seven figure donations in the last couple of weeks would be running these guys out of the country on a rail.

    Bin Laden is dead. GM and Chrysler are alive.

    by leevank on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:53:44 AM PST

  •  Do we know who exactly (3+ / 0-)

    they hired to perform this polling?

    I think we need to send those agencies a nice bouquet of flowers with a tasteful tank you card.

    They certainly deserve to reap the benefits of their acumen in the marketplace that they so love.

  •  Astounding. (13+ / 0-)

    In an election year, it's hard to separate delusion from mere cheerleading---of course the losing candidate is going to say "we're gonna win"---but this pretty much settles it.

    Up until now, I assumed the conservative confusion was a problem with the masses---bloggers believing each other's theories and getting their information from news sources that tell them what they want to hear.  I assumed that people at the top had a clearer picture, because they need hard facts rather than comforting fibs.  Instead, it seems that the alternate universe went all the way to the top.

    I must admit I suspected a bit when Romney repeated a few alternate universe talking points during the debates.  And he really got beaten up over them, like the line about Benghazi, which actually got him corrected by the moderator.  It was clear he was getting some of his information from the alternate universe, or being advised by people from the alternate universe.

    Taking jokes seriously is the exact mirror activity of laughing if someone says they have cancer. --jbou

    by Caj on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:54:42 AM PST

    •  Yeah, I figured this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      foresterbob

      too.  I thought that deep in the campaign, they were probably seeing the same numbers....that Obama had the edge and that Romney would have to pull a full straight to win.

      But they didn't.  They really thought they had the numbers.

    •  Exactly (0+ / 0-)

      that one, and Syria being Iran's route to the sea.  

      Embarassing shit, and this is supposed to be the guy we worship and hand over the ship to, because he's so very successful, and that has to mean he's just so much smarter and more competent than all the rest of us.

      So lazy and gullible, he fell for Fox' lies and made an ass of himself on national television, TWICE?

    •  Lately it hasn't been easy to be a Republican (0+ / 0-)

      while simultaneously maintaining a clear-eyed view of reality. Within the circled wagons of the GOP camp, objectivity has not been granted high-priority status.

      Having Fox News serving as information clearing house and primary advocate, it's no wonder the Party seems badly off-kilter. The Romney campaign was in some ways a victim of its own propaganda.

      "The pessimists may be right in the end but an optimist has a better time getting there" -- Samuel Clemons

      by native on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 01:32:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Republicon definition of unskewed polling (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mae, pademocrat

    polls that include more Republicans than Democrats.

    "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."
    Four More Years! How sweet it is!!!

    by TrueBlueMajority on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:55:43 AM PST

  •  They should have just hired Dick Morris to poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLKRR

    It would have been as accurate as the one they actual had.

  •  Yes man polling painted a pretty picture for Mitt (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    foresterbob, lovelyivy, mmacdDE

    Romney surrounded himself with agreeable, well paid people who knew how much Mitt likes to fire them.  

    If cats could blog, they wouldn't

    by crystal eyes on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:58:44 AM PST

  •  How could his polling be so wrong and his (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    foresterbob

    campaign not notice the fact?

    It's really easy to take the temperature of a variety of polls thanks to the internet.

    Seems somebody should have held some very uncomfortable meetings to find out why the differences.

    OTOH, Gallup nationals, usually pretty good, was pretty bad on this one, too.  Maybe they've run into a methodological wall. Maybe turnout assumptions were all wrong.  Maybe the vote fairy slept in that day.

    Polls aside, how could Romney not ask himself one very basic question:  "How can I expect to alienate a major group that George Bush did well with (latinos) and still expect to win?"

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:00:09 AM PST

  •  How does Newhouse even work again (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    megisi, foresterbob, BobBlueMass

    in this industry??

    Buy Aldus Shrugged : The Antidote to Ayn Rand, and tear Ayn and the GOP new orifices. Plus, I get a small royalty, and Jeff Bezos and his employees get the rest. Not a bad deal, as CEO Bezos is not much of a dick, relatively speaking. @floydbluealdus1

    by Floyd Blue on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:01:47 AM PST

  •  I wonder if there's such a thing (5+ / 0-)

    as political malpractice.

    Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað

    by milkbone on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:02:59 AM PST

  •  I rmember seeing Halperin and Mathew Dowd (9+ / 0-)

    on Stephanopoulis show weekend before the election.  By then any rational thinker could see Obama would win looking at the polls.  Haleperin brought up Newhouse's internals as signs of Mittens Momentum.  Dowd slapped him down saying "when 1 poll shows something completely different from 25 others and that one poll is pulling a paycheck from the candidate you know its bogus."  Turns out this was exactly the case.  It still amazes me Newhouse didnt look at his numbers and being so different from everyone elses and not realize there must be a serious problem.  Then again in Republican land they view anything outside their bubble as a lib conspiracy so it does make sense.

  •  Grown ups got their numbers wrong n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sharman
  •  Why do candidates need "internal" polls? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    foresterbob

    In a Presidential race these days, there are public polls conducted almost daily in the final weeks of the campaign, and perhaps every week or so earlier on.  What are they learning from "internal" polls that they can't get from just reading the newspaper?

    I can understand internal polls in congressional races which are not polled very much, but at the Presidential level it seems like a collossal waste of money.  Look at all the polls -- discount the ones you don't trust -- and move on.  The newspapers should not be asking the candidates who is winning - they should just look at the public polls.

    •  Not all polling is the same (4+ / 0-)

      "Chicago" had some internal polling which was specifically designed to assess "quality control": how much various campaign inputs (media buys, visits by "the Big Four" and other high profile surrogates, the various portions of "the ground game", etc.) were in generating new RVs and generating intent to participate.

      When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

      by Egalitare on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:13:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  To paraphrase an old movie line that went (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tardis10, foresterbob, mmacdDE

    something like this, spoken by Rock Hudson's character to Cyd Charisse's character as the schooner was sinking, in Twilight for the Gods.

    All ships leak a little. This one just leaks more than most.
    All of us tend to see what we want to see; conservatives just tend to see only what they want to see.

    It seems to be a mental quirk that makes one "conservative" in the modern U.S. definition ("radical" is more appropriate). It is why reality and evidence has so little meaning in that world view. Reality based minds tend to do a sanity check on incoming data. In the really bat shit insane "conservative" mind the state of Hawaii's birth certificate is bogus because it isn't in a mythical "long form" they agree is the only real certificate despite state law and modern practices.

    The only foes that threaten America are the enemies at home, and those are ignorance, superstition, and incompetence. [Elbert Hubbard]

    by pelagicray on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:07:26 AM PST

  •  I think this goes beyond Schadenfreude, (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rightiswrong, chrisinNY, foresterbob

    this is about understanding what happened. I for one thought the Romney camp couldn't have possibly believed they were going to win, but they did. They kept dismissing the independent polls showing them losing by claiming that the polls over-counted Democratic voters.  Turned out the Romney internal polls grossly under-counted Democratic voters. Somehow their internal polls showed much greater voter intensity in their side, while the independent polls showed voter intensity even. they truly did drink their own Kool-aide. Although I have to wonder, even if they had acknowledged where the polls stood, what could they have done differently? I don't think they could've changed the outcome, they could only have been better prepared to accept it.

  •  Yellowcake and Biowarfare trailers ... (5+ / 0-)

    Aluminum tubes. A bunch of pollsters feeding a candidate cooked data, telling the candidate what he wants to hear, sounds so much like the run up to Iraq it makes you realize what a great debt America owes ladies, gays, kids, and brown people for killing Mitt's dream.

    We dodged a bullet, and the smoking gun would have been a mushroom cloud.

    Those who want to reap the benefits of this great nation must bear the fatigue of supporting it - Thomas Paine

    by ManOutOfTime on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:09:37 AM PST

  •  A CEO who hires yes-men (9+ / 0-)

    ...gets the staff he deserves.  Imagine how truly crappy a president he would've been.

  •  Obama Pollster Joel Berensons numbers were dead on (4+ / 0-)

    He had the demographics nailed exactly. 28% non-white vote, high youth turnout.  Then again he lives in reality unlike the republicans.  

  •  This is the stuff I've been waiting (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    foresterbob, askew, sharman

    for.  Facincating.  

    They really did think they were going to win.  

  •  CNBC and NYTimes relying on flawed Gallup polling (0+ / 0-)

    One would think that after Gallup's disastrous record of seriously flawed and unreliable polling in the recent election that responsible journalists and main stream news media would not use Gallup for attempts at serious journalism. A NY Times article today, included on the CNBC.com web site uses Gallup to make its points.

    "Complaints Aside, Most Face Lower Tax Burden Than in 1980", NY Times article by Binyamin Appelbaum and Robert Gebeloff, published 30 November 2012.

    Personally, after seeing how significantly and materially flawed and unreliable Gallup's polling has been, I would not believe any "news" or business article that relies in whole or in part on Gallup's polling numbers for any purpose whatsoever.  

  •  Is that 'Newhouse' as in ... (0+ / 0-)

    ... the Newhouse publishing family?

    If so, there's your problem right there.

  •  Neil Newhouse said McCain was surging (0+ / 0-)

    The final week in Nov 2008....why would anyone listen to this reTHUG after that disaster? He live sin te reTHUG teabaggers parallel universe.."ah...what the heck....they deserve a loser like him

    Karl Rove is a criminal and should be in jail! I am still wondering what dirt they had on Patrick Fitzgerald!

    by BlueFranco on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:20:37 AM PST

  •  Why this matters (6+ / 0-)

    We now know the Romney campaign overpaid its top staff and overpaid for a lot of advertising.

    We now know they had terrible internal polling.

    This tells us a lot about the incompetence of the national Republican Party infrastructure.   We now need to see if they are going to do anything about it.  I think their ideology that the marketplace is king prevents any fixes.

    Secondly, and just as importantly, this demonstrated incompetence may seep into the mindset of the Very Serious People who set the agenda for political discussions that the Villagers have.  

    If the Villagers start taking note, then the demonstrated incompetence of the Republican Party may become one of those issues that lead to whether the Republicans should ever take control of government.

    Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens.

    by MoDem on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:21:39 AM PST

  •  Instead of spending millions on polling and ads, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    foresterbob

    why not just bribe the electors? 50 million each in a Cayman Island or Swiss bank account provided by a Superpac unaffiliated with the candidate is enough to sway even the most devout Democrat.
    Need 100 EVs to swing, costs 500 million. Half as much as has been estimated spent on this election.
    If bribery charges filed and proved, Presnit Richie Rich can pardon the electors.
    2016 rinse and repeat.
    /snark maybe?

    "Reason is six-sevenths of treason," said one of his neighbors. "Intelligence is what the enemy uses," said another.

    by Misterpuff on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:22:09 AM PST

  •  At the end, the millions of dollars they spent (6+ / 0-)

    told them EXACTLY what they wanted to hear.

    Reality be damned.

    Let it be said.  You get what you pay for.

    "I'm not scared of anyone or anything, Angie. Isn't that the way life should be?" Jack Hawksmoor

    by skyounkin on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:22:24 AM PST

  •  Romney said that he likes to fire people. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NonnyO, BobBlueMass

    If he had shown his pollsters the door last summer, he might have had a better chance to win.

    Not that any of us wanted that.

  •  In The Words Of Romney............ (0+ / 0-)

    POLLS ARE PEOPLE MY FRIEND!!!

  •  They supposedly bought "the best" their money (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    foresterbob

    could buy.  But they've got to learn that yes men don't win an election.

    The beautiful part is that the RW aren't taking this loss the way adults would.  Instead, every news cycle is filled with a tantrum or two.  You just don't know who is going to lose it next. ;)

    "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." --Benjamin Franklin

    by politicalceci on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:32:51 AM PST

  •  Well... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ipsos, chrisinNY
    Combine these numbers with the reports that Romney's internal polling also showed he was going to win Virginia and Florida, and it's not hard to imagine how shocked Romney must have been when he lost.
    Well, maybe, but...

    If we take the actual 2012 map but then give Romney Colorado, Iowa ("tie goes to the skewer"), New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida... he still loses 271-267.

    As was so widely expected, it all would have come down to Ohio; Romney would have had to win that, or win one of the other states that even his (apparently incompetent) pollsters thought he was behind in, in order to prevail in the Electoral College.

    Which means that this news isn't quite as strong evidence for an answer to the Great 2012 Election Conundrum--i.e., the Shellshock question--as the original post suggests.

  •  His pollster was a con artist. lol (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chrisinNY

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:38:08 AM PST

  •  You don't GET it (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    foresterbob

    We polled our own campaign staff.  That's what "internal polling" MEANS.  I don't see what is so hard about this.

    Signed, Mitt

    P.S. Kidding aside, it has been great working with you guys!

  •  Thanks, I can put this diary to good use. nt (0+ / 0-)

    Might and Right are always fighting, in our youth it seems exciting. Right is always nearly winning, Might can hardly keep from grinning. -- Clarence Day

    by hestal on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:41:42 AM PST

  •  Maybe they just (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    foresterbob, CocoaLove, CoyoteMarti

    drove around and counted campaign signs. I'm in colorado springs and I can ASSURE you that Romney signs outnumbered Obama by at least 10-1. I drove by that crap every.day. Heck, I was in the rocky mountains and in the middle of a large wooded area off of the highway, behind a barbed wire fence was a romney sign.

    Yeah, I think here in colorado, internal polling was counting signs :)

    Emerging from my binder......

    by dietcokehead98 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:44:29 AM PST

  •  Art imitating life...? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    foresterbob

    Did anyone watch ABC's Scandal last night?  One of the characters discovered how e-voting machines can be rigged.  The reporter he gave the info to blew him off and told him it was a conspiracy theory.  Then... as the plot progresses, the reporter [husband of the guy who's chief of staff] overhears something that puts it into the realm of "wait a minute..., maybe not CT after all."  He interviews some fellows on how voting machines can be rigged, then he goes to the county in OH and checks out the machines, and only one has the memory card.  He checks it out per the instructions of the computer geeks..., and lo & behold, it was easy as 1-2-3..., Rove's spluttering on election night and various OH counties he was sure they were going to win makes him seem all that much more desperate.

    Well, the fictitious story had me wondering, anyway.

    I'm sick of attempts to steer this nation from principles evolved in The Age of Reason to hallucinations derived from illiterate herdsmen. ~ Crashing Vor

    by NonnyO on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:50:18 AM PST

    •  Oh, linky at Hulu (0+ / 0-)

      Scandal [There are stupid ads, but at least there are fewer than if you watched it on ABC's site, and it's easier to mute them on Hulu.  If you mute the bloody things on ABC the sound doesn't always come back when the show starts.]

      I'm sick of attempts to steer this nation from principles evolved in The Age of Reason to hallucinations derived from illiterate herdsmen. ~ Crashing Vor

      by NonnyO on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:56:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  My niece was in Romney campaign (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    foresterbob, sargoth, askew, CoyoteMarti

    She was telling herself she had a plum DOJ job lined up.  She was listening to Romney insiders and not Nate Silver. She was honestly surprised.

    I agree with other posters in this thread that at some levels in the campaign, the truth was known--and prevented from spreading to donors or campaign workers.

  •  a certain kind .. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    foresterbob, DSPS owl, mmacdDE

    always surrounds themselves with yes men. They're always right, just ask them! And buying polls that tell you what you want to hear seems symptomatic of that kind of personality. This indicative of the kind of administration we might have been subjected to. At least that disaster was averted.

  •  Enraged GOP contributor: Rove stole my money! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NonnyO, DSPS owl

    But not Mitt's money--he didn't self-finance--smart!

  •  I don't believe these polls were real. (0+ / 0-)

    Newhouse is a credible pollster and through the summer he and his team made very realistic statements about the state of the race that aligned with those of Plouffe  and co.

    They had a collective freakout after the 47% gaffe because they had moved into "John McCain territory" by their own admission.  Obama's own internal polls backed that up.  The big money and key voter groups were about to walk away from Romney so I believe that Newhouse intentionally constructed scenarios with lower turnouts to help keep the base energized.  Late September was also the time when the "skewed poll" theory came into play.  One should note that these skewed polls still had Obama winning the race... They had Obama winning in WI, OH and NV and tied in IA.  That would have been enough to get to 270.

    When we see the results we see lower turnout for Rmney than for McCain and just sligtly more popular votes as compared to 2008.  if Obama had not screwed up debate 1, we could've win this thing by about 7 points nationally.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:59:54 AM PST

    •  I dont believe that last part to be true (0+ / 0-)

      This was never going to be a blowout of 08 proportions. Maybe they could have added an extra point or two nationally, Florida may have been more comfortable but the overall result would have been the same.

      •  Obama's own internal polling had him up +6 during (0+ / 0-)

        the 47% period. He beat McCain by 7 points so it was comparable. If Obama had done a better job in debate 1, he could've kept that margin up.  We would've won more votes in the 50-64 demographic and that would've increased margins across the board.  Electorally, it would not have changed much.  I think NC would've flipped to Obama and we would've won FL by a 3-4 point margin as opposed to 1 point.

        Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

        by khyber900 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 08:40:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  The Emperor has no clothes! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Misterpuff

    Emperor Romney wore no clothes.  

    But his minions weren't willing to state the truth.  So they kept praising him on the clothes he thought he was wearing.

    Romney himself lost track of the truth by his continued lies.

    But the voters knew. They voted him out to obscurity.

    Now Romney is crying. He lunched with Obama in embarrassment.

    Loser he is.

  •  Remember: running a campaign is a lot like (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    foresterbob, sargoth, mmacdDE

    running a large national business, with thousands of employees.

    Obama is a better businessman than Romney.

    Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

    by blue aardvark on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 08:14:42 AM PST

  •  If you work for someone like Romney.... (0+ / 0-)

    .....you become a yes-man.  You tell him what he wants to hear - a Smithers to his Burns.

    9-11 changed everything? Well, Katrina changed it back.

    by varro on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 08:19:56 AM PST

  •  Grift. It's all about the grift for the Cons. (0+ / 0-)

    Results? Only a means to the end. The end being continuance of the consultant/ pollster / media Gravy train.

    "..The political class cannot solve the problems it created. " - Jay Rosen

    by New Rule on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 08:31:53 AM PST

  •  this is like (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    walk2live, mmacdDE

    the generals telling Hitler that they were winning on the Eastern Front

    and when Hitler lost -- he blamed, rather disparaged the people for deserting him

    just like Romney and the gifts comment - "it isnt my fault, it is the people with gifts fault"

    also he ran his campaign like he ran Bain - NO ONE dares to question the wisdom of the boss (Romney) - he was the smartest man in the room

    i bet Ann made him sleep with Rafalca

    He may talk like an idiot, and look like an idiot, but don't let that fool you: he really is an idiot...Groucho Marx

    by distributorcap on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 08:36:11 AM PST

  •  the mainstream media needs to take another look (0+ / 0-)

    at the election results and absorb/realize a few things:

    1.  The election was NOT close.  It was not a "virtual tie".  It wasn't a "tossup".  The result was never really in doubt after about 9PM eastern time.  This was a clear, sweeping victory for Obama both in the electoral college and the popular vote.  51 to 47 .. got that?  Not 50-49 or 50-48 or whatever the talking heads were saying the day after the election.

    2.  Obama outperformed not only the Republican leaning polls, but almost all of the polls.  He will end up winning by between 3.5 and 4 percentage points in the popular vote, and winning all of the battleground states by more than the polls predicted except for Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.  So maybe the media should admit they were wrong about the whole 'Romney has momentum' line that they were spouting at the end.

  •  I think its fraud.. (0+ / 0-)

    I think they knew where they stood, but they had to keep the money flowing to have a chance to turn it around. So they had the pollster skew their numbers and pushed the skewed polls meme to get the rest of wingnuttia to go along with them. This created a bubble where donors could be comforted and the money kept flowing.

    As bad as it is to look stupid now, its beats the truth: they committed fraud against all the GOP donors.

  •  do we get to find out... (0+ / 0-)

    Exactly who did these polls? Which company the surveying? and which individuals interpreted the results? Those people ought not ever to be in this line of work again.

    Yet, how much do you want to bet they will be. Again and again.

    Freedom isn't free. So quit whining and pay your taxes.

    by walk2live on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 08:44:28 AM PST

  •  Just proves ORCa was worthless or (0+ / 0-)

    the Dems stole the election. Im on it. After I fully research chemtrails.

    •  Been said a million times , but ... (0+ / 0-)

      The worthless media wanted the horserace, facts be damned.

      It was all summe up in the CNN Ohio poll story, Obama by 4, headline 'Race is Tied.'

      Also I wonder if, God forbid, in 2016 if the GOP is headed for a win and Nate hows it as such -- which he would -- will we see the same winger vitriol directed at him and Sam Wang and the rest?

      Do we even have to guess that answer?

  •  Gotta love corporate "Yes Men". N/T (0+ / 0-)

    “The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” — Marcus Aurelius

    by LamontCranston on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 08:51:01 AM PST

  •  When you assume..... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mmacdDE

    You make an ass out of u and me.

    I have  done many many data collection/analysis studies  over the years. Maybe we engineers do it differently. But never assume anything, especially something as important as a turnout model. If you do assume, test the assumption.

    This whole thing about assuming a turnout model, and adjusting your sampling to fit it, boggles my mind. Seems to me you would poll registered voters and use that data to test turnout models. Plus we know that many likely voters don't vote and unlikely voters do. It's likely voter, not certain absolutely guaranteed rock solid in the bag voter.

    That likelihood has a probability, what is it?

    If I am a candidate, knowing it is going to be close, I want to know who the unlikely voters are, if they are my voters, and what I need to do get them to vote. What happens under different turnout scenarios? How likely are the likely voters? That is important information, information lost by assuming one turnout model.

    And when everybody else is getting a different answer? The candidate should have been asking some questions. Tough questions. Especially one who likes to fire people.

    The pollster was incompetent, bordering on malfeasance. But the candidate was an idiot for not asking questions.

    There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not? - Robert Kennedy

    by BobBlueMass on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 09:11:07 AM PST

  •  And yet... even these polls show Romney losing. (0+ / 0-)

    Most hilarious of all, assuming Newhouse did have Romney winning FL and VA -- even assuming he was going to win the tie in IA, and take CO and NH -- their own poll still showed him losing OH by 2.

    Add all that up?  Even if they believed their own crazy-ass polls, Romney would still end up with a losing 267 EVs.

    ...and Romney was so certain of victory that he didn't even write a concession speech.  Mind = boggled.

    •  But I would bet (0+ / 0-)

      that they predicted he'd win the popular vote.

      And that's all they looked at.

      Remember, the GOP and Romney in particular don't do details. They don't do nuance.

      And their grasp of the Constitution and how government functions is sketchy at best.

  •  What were Romney's internal #'s in Ohio? (0+ / 0-)

    Anyone spill the beans about those numbers?    

  •  I wonder (0+ / 0-)

    if the Republicans knew he was a bust to start with, but kept the polling numbers up to get the donors to keep sending cash.  They are after all, a sleazy and greedy lot who stop at nothing to rule monetarily.

  •  From my perspective (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mmacdDE

    As a professional forecaster there are several possibilities for these incorrect numbers:
    1)Neil Newhouse was not the person doing the analysis, but was the “manager” of the forecaster or forecasters.   He took the numbers he was given by his minions and changed them in order to make his boss or should I say “client” happy, or
    2)The real polling analyst/forecaster/minion knew that the numbers were wrong, but wanted to keep his job, or
    3)The person or persons doing the forecasting just sucked at their job.

    Please note I work in a very large company which is doing very poorly at the moment, whenever I give a forecast each layer of the organization above me increases the forecast so as to look better to their management.    I am not surprised Romney was living in a bubble.  In my organization if you don’t deliver a forecast that upper management wants to hear you get fired.  He ran his campaign with people from businesses just like mine.  It is not surprising to me at all.  I see it every day.

    In Romney’s world and like many in the business world they have confused encouraging organizations and people to reach a little further than they might, which a good manager does, with completely ignoring reality.

    •  Yes and yes (0+ / 0-)

      They really don't understand that at all.

      They don't want to hear bad news, because it might impact employee morale. So don't bring them bad news, because they will just ignore it or tell you it's wrong.

      Do that enough times, and nobody will bring you bad news. They'll just massage it to make it good news. Or they'll just cut out the part that makes it bad. Or they'll use a different model for the data and poof! Good news.

      Bad news - the only people who like our product are poor people who can't afford it.

      Good news - Lots of people think our product is great.

      Just leave out that part about them not actually BUYING it.

  •  I just saw a broadcast professional's journal (0+ / 0-)

    about what a Romney Presidency would do to the FCC.  The article began with outright certainty that a Romney win was in the bag (written, amazingly, after the second presidential debate).  

    Yes, I still find the need to reassure myself we won, like a pinch that I'm not dreaming, after the outlandish all-fronts GOP assault on Mr. Obama.

  •  They told the rich a$$hole what he wanted to (0+ / 0-)

    hear. They wanted to keep getting paid. They limited polls to their own echo chamber or crafted questions that would prompt a certain answer. I'm sure the reasons are many. Chances are most of them knew what they were doing and kept doing it anyway.

    Send conservatives to FilthyLiberal.com for re-education.

    by filthyLiberalDOTcom on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 01:40:03 PM PST

  •  When Polling Gets Skewed (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raster44

    Due to a typographical error, the Romney campaign's internal polling efforts led to a distracting internal "poling" competition, costing Romney the election. American Crossroads funds were diverted to pay for lap dances, angering wealthy donors.

    I knew she was the gal for me as soon as she laid her eyes on me. Right on me shoulder, she did. Popped the buggers right out her head, and laid em on me shoulder. She's a sweet heart, that gal.

    by glb3 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 02:25:03 PM PST

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