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9:40 AM PT: AR-Sen, AR-02: GOP Rep. Tim Griffin, who just won a second term in office and had been thinking about a run for Senate, says he won't take the plunge. Griffin just scored a spot on the coveted Ways and Means Committee and at just 44 years old, he has plenty of time to rise through the ranks in the House. (Had he run, his 2nd District seat would have offered a temping target for Democrats, since it's now the bluest in Arkansas, based on demographics alone. But it sure ain't blue, just based on presidential results: Obama lost 55-43.)

10:01 AM PT: GA-Sen: Alas, the dream has died. Erick son of Erick, founder of the conservative blog RedState, says he won't challenge Sen. Saxby Chambliss in the GOP primary after all. Not that he was ever anything but full of shit about such a possibility, but it was fun to imagine. Oh well! Hey, anyone know what Dean Chambers is up to these days?

Actually, while we're on the topic, Aaron Blake has an interesting observation about why Chambliss seems so likely to be the next target of wingnut ire. Chambliss has an incredibly conservative voting record, but the problem is that he just doesn't sound like a frothing mouth-breather. Says a Chambliss consultant: "There are people that just want Saxby to blast the Democrats; that's not his style." That's a very serious problem in modern GOP politics, as I've written before:

It's important to remember that to remain a member in good standing of the conservative movement, it isn't enough just to vote a certain way. You have to evidence a very particular tribal belonging—you need to hate the right people, be ignorant of the right facts, be fearful of the right bogeymen, and be arrogant about the whole enterprise. If you somehow fail this tribal litmus test, it doesn't matter how right-wing you are.
Chambliss might soon discover what life looks like if his conservative pH score proves insufficient.

10:33 AM PT: NJ-Gov: Another day, another set of gaudy poll numbers for GOP Gov. Chris Christie, whose 67-25 job approval rating makes him the most popular governor in PPP's polling. PPP also finds a similar picture to what Rutgers and Quinnipiac have found on the re-election front, though Cory Booker "only" trails by 14 (versus somewhat larger margins in those other polls). Everyone's still getting killed, though:

• 50-36 vs. Cory Booker

• 53-31 vs. Richard Codey

• 57-20 vs. Steve Sweeney

• 60-20 vs. Barbara Buono

• 61-25 vs. Bruce Springsteen


Sadly, The Boss performs the worst of all, despite having the highest favorability rating—54 favorable, 23 unfavorable—of any Democrat! I guess Bruce simply wasn't born to run.

10:48 AM PT: NH-Sen, -01 -Gov: GOP Rep. Frank Guinta, who was just turfed in a rematch by Democrat Carol Shea-Porter, is already thinking about a possible comeback bid. According to Shira Toeplitz's sources, Guinta is most interested in a bid against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen next cycle, but Guinta himself says that bids for Senate or governor are possible, as well as a rubber match against CSP. I don't view Guinta as a particularly imposing force, though New Hampshire's small size and lack of statewide elected posts means both parties perennially have small benches, so I suppose the GOP could do worse. But Guinta also has some lingering ethical issues regarding alleged campaign finance improprieties, and he'd also potentially have to deal with ex-Sen. John Sununu, if Sununu tries for a rubber game of his own against Shaheen.

11:15 AM PT: SD-Sen, -AL: On Thursday, when ex-Gov. Mike Rounds announced he'd run for the Senate, I cautioned that while his entry might appear to be a field-clearing move, the possibility of "true conservative" challenge couldn't be ruled out. And indeed, Rep. Kristi Noem, who just won re-election, is refusing to rule out the possibility of her own Senate bid, though she's saying it's too early to discuss and isn't offering any timetable about a possible decision. On paper, she'd appear to have a tough time against the better-known and more established Rounds, but if she could capture some of that movement conservative lightning in a bottle, an upset would be possible. Win or lose, though, Dem Sen. Tim Johnson has to hope for a nasty, hotly contested GOP primary.


11:38 AM PT: VA-Gov: I have to say, I didn't expect to start the new election cycle off quite so right—and by "starting off right," I mean, gorging on heaping helpings of delicious cat fud. (Not familiar with the term? See here.) Just a couple of days after departing the 2013 gubernatorial race (and threatening to run indie), GOP Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling said he won't endorse the man who squeezed him out, AG Ken Cuccinelli, in stark terms:

"I have no intentions to endorse a candidate in the campaign for governor. I have serious reservations about his ability to effectively and responsibly lead the state. And given those reservations, I could not in good conscience endorse his candidacy for governor."
And now the fud is getting flung in both directions, with state GOP chair Pat Mullins dinging Bolling for his actions and words:
"I am disappointed by Lt. Governor Bolling's remarks over the past 48 hours. Lt. Governor Bolling has a stellar record of public service, and has long been a strong voice for the conservative cause.  Nowhere in his statements does he mention a policy disagreement with the Attorney General.

The proper venue for challenging a fellow Republican is during a nomination contest. Lt. Governor Bolling chose to suspend his campaign. I hope he will take his own words to heart and work to bring our Party together."

If this is what they're saying publicly, imagine what Republicans are saying privately. But they have to choose their words carefully—note Mullins praising Bolling's "stellar record of public service"—to preserve any hopes of bringing their wayward lieutenant governor back into the fold. This oughta be fun!

11:54 AM PT: KY-Sen: I'd never imagined that Dem Rep. John Yarmuth would ever consider statewide office, but in case you had him on your watch list, no, he won't be running for Senate against Mitch McConnell in 2014.

12:34 PM PT: NY-St. Sen: The battle over the brand-new 46th Senate District between Republican Assemblyman George Amedore Democrat Mr. Mxyzptlk Cecilia Tkaczyk has, as expected, moved to the courts. Amedore currently holds a 110-vote lead, but of the 877 disputed (and as-yet unopened) ballots, roughly 680 were challenged by his attorneys. That's good news for Tkaczyk, since campaigns in tight situations like this often make spurious (or at least, extremely longshot) objections to ballots they suspect have been cast for their opponent. Now a judge will decide which ballots to count, and odds are, Tkaczyk will prevail in the end.

And if she does, that would give Senate Democrats at least an outside shot at claiming control of the chamber, if they can persuade Jeff Klein and his gang of four obstructionists to actually, you know, support their own party instead of the GOP. Of course, Klein's gone on record as saying he prefer to work out a deal with Dean Skelos and the Republicans, so this may be a false hope. But I'd rather have more Democrats than fewer, if only to embarrass Klein further—and to set us up for more gains in the future so that Klein will hopefully become irrelevant.

12:39 PM PT: IL-Sen: PPP's new Illinois Senate poll is exactly the snoozer you'd expect: Dem Sen. Dick Durbin leads a generic Republican opponent 52-38, but Generic R actually does better than any actual, living, breathing potential GOP candidate. Durbin beats outgoing Reps. Bob Dold! and Joe Walsh 54-33 and 54-29 respectively, as well as failed 2010 Senate primary hopeful (and tea partier) Patrick Hughes. Mostly, I'm just glad that Tom's given us the opportunity mention Bob Dold! one last time. Bob Dold!

12:58 PM PT: NM St. House: This is just nuts. Every few years or so, you hear about some election for some obscure office somewhere where both candidates wind up with the exact same vote tally, but this surely is just about the highest-level tie in quite some time anywhere in the nation. In the race for New Mexico's 37th state House District, GOP Rep. Terry McMillan and Democratic challenger Joanne Ferrary both have exactly 6,247 votes. The race will now undergo a recount, of course, and if there's still a tie at that point, well, according to local news station KFOX14, "the winner will be decided in a game of chance." So you've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky?

P.S. Wanna know something even crazier? In their respective primaries earlier this year, McMillan and Ferrary each received 1,007 votes. Absurd, right? Also worth noting is that the DLCC identified HD-37 as one if its 60 "Essential Races" earlier this year. Talk about every vote counting!

2:24 PM PT: WATN?: I guess we can count Jason Altmire out for any possible comebacks: The Democratic congressman, who lost in a primary against fellow Rep. Mark Critz earlier this year, is relocating to Jacksonville, Florida to become senior vice president for "public policy, government and community affairs" at Florida Blue, which is the Florida branch of the Blue Cross/Blue Shield insurance giant. In addition to quitting Pennsylvania, Altmire's new title basically amounts to "lobbyist," which is not a very helpful resume-builder for a return to Congress.

In other Where Are They Now? news, soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Heath Shuler is also making a similar move, taking a job as "senior vice president of federal affairs" (again, "lobbyist") for Duke Energy. Shuler of course opted to retire rather than seek re-election, so a comeback bid never seemed in the cards for him. Duke, though, is based in North Carolina, so presumably Shuler will be staying close to home.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I wonder what James thinks of this: (5+ / 0-)

    Apparently, a Republican election worker in Clackamas County as indited for filling in the down ballot races on undervotes with the Republican candidates.

    I know they have a Republican county clerk and while I'm not suggesting she was necessarily involved, it could be a case of bad judgement.

    Also, I'm somewhat annoyed that Kate Brown chose to describe this incident as voter fraud. It isn't. Voter fraud is a term more or less invented by Republicans to scare people into supporting voter suppression measures. This was election fraud, as voters were being victimized by an election worker.

  •  Washington State Senate in Disarray (17+ / 0-)

    What the hell: http://www.oregonlive.com/...

    If these two democrats screw over the majority get RID of them.  I am SO fucking tired of democrats pulling these stunts.  It's narcissistic and completely self-serving.  We will have the numbers for democratic majorities in the Washington state senate and the New York state senate, but because of a few selfish men it might not happen.

    Why can't dems stick together?  We need to learn a lesson from the republicans -- they almost always stick together on major issues like this.

    27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

    by IndyLiberal on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:32:30 AM PST

  •  GA-Sen: Erickson says he's not running (11+ / 0-)

    Link
    While its too bad we couldn't get him, I'm sure some other hard right conservative will step up to the plate.
    Please!!!!

  •  Ted Cruz presidential talk (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, MetroGnome

    How amazing would a Ted Cruz presidential run, and if we are so lucky, nomination be? The guy obviously loves to run his mouth and even in prepared speeches goes off the wall. Imagine what he would be like unscripted.

  •  Inauguration "first nail" ceremony (12+ / 0-)

    http://www.inaugural.senate.gov/...

    The difference in the look on Pelosi's face next to Cantor and Boehner is HILARIOUS.

  •  Scathing op-ed about Joe Baca's loss (8+ / 0-)

    http://www.presstelegram.com/...

    Damn that's going to leave a mark!

    29, M, Swingnut, CA-38 resident. Chairman of the DKE Ginger Left-handed caucus. Huge Angels, Lakers, Bruins, Kings, Galaxy fan. Follow me on Twitter: @Artesialove

    by uclabruin18 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 09:36:05 AM PST

  •  So Pryor has already avoided his toughest (13+ / 0-)

    potential competitor. I continue to think people who rate this race a toss-up are underestimating Pryor.

    •  Cotton seems to be up for the GOP (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, bjssp, bumiputera, dc1000, MichaelNY

      But in all honesty, the Republican party in Arkansas didn't even really exist a decade ago, so their bench is still weak.

      •  Cotton is impressive (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, dc1000, MichaelNY

        but I wonder if he could from one term in the House immediately to Senator. I think Josh Mandel had a similar problem, although obviously, AR is much more conservative than OH.

        Also, there might be the possibility Cotton or another potential Senate nominee runs for governor.

      •  Is there's a befitting (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, MichaelNY

        surname for a southern politician than "Cotton", I'd be hard-pressed to think of it.

        Pryor isn't unbeatable, but I also don't think he's terribly vulnerable.  At the very least, he's not going down as badly as Blanche Lincoln.

      •  although with term limits (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, skibum59, MichaelNY

        and Arkansas' term limits are absurdly brief, 6 years in the House and 8 in the Senate, IIRC, they'll have a pretty full bench in a few years as their Republican electeds get termed out of one chamber and have to move around to stay in office.

        (It's no coincidence that term limits were pushed on states with heavily D state legislatures like Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri)

        But perhaps Arkansas would be one of the stronger examples of something i'm seeing in various legislative level elections in 2010/2012, which is that most of the ticket splitting is going on in areas which are near the residence of D candidates, and areas that typically split tickets in past elections are just voting straight Republican for elections. And that's... not a very good sign.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 11:08:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  We should be alright (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think he's done a better job balancing his the views of his state along with the needs of his party.

      I think the concern is we don't want this turning into a repeat of the Lincoln race. Though Pryor has a strong family name and Republicans don't have as strong as a candidate as they did last time

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 11:24:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's absolutely a tossup! (6+ / 0-)

      All you have to do is look at population gains.

      Remember, the Little Rock suburbs and the Northwest don't vote for Democrats under any circumstances. Most of these voters have moved here in the last few years and there's nobody who knows of the name "Pryor."

      So if 40% of the state won't vote for you unless your name is Beebe:

      1) You need to win the blue dog coalition of Democrats in Southwest Arkansas and Northeast Arkansas. These voters love Pryor. Check.

      2) To compensate for population shifts, you need to win rural Blue Dog counties by huge margins. Shane Broadway got a standard Democratic percentage in these rural counties in 2010 and lost statewide by 2%. Can Pryor win these counties like Democrats would have in the 1980s or 1990s? Possibly.

      3) You need to get every vote you can from Little Rock, urban areas like Pine Bluff and West Memphis, and Camden. You also need to get African Americans out to the polls in a midterm. To go beyond the AAs in an urban area, you have to act like a hack to the business community for the next years. Can Pryor do it? Yes, he can.

      So can Pryor win? Absolutely he can win. But the race isn't Lean Democrat. Population shifts (not Blue Dog areas trending R)  cause this race to remain Tossup.

      •  I have it at Tilt D (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        along with Alaska.
        I have Louisiana and South Dakota at pure Tossup, and West Virginia at Lean R.
        North Carolina and Montana are Lean D.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 04:10:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  This is a bit exaggerated: (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59, MichaelNY, bfen, WisJohn
        All you have to do is look at population gains.

        Remember, the Little Rock suburbs and the Northwest don't vote for Democrats under any circumstances. Most of these voters have moved here in the last few years and there's nobody who knows of the name "Pryor."

        The population of the state only grew by 9% from 2000-2010, and the white population - the only ones who'll be voting republican - only grew by 3%. This ain't exactly Nevada, or even North Carolina.

        Also, those fast-growing regions you mention still only amount to 1/4th of the state. And Obama got 40% in Washington County, and 25-30% in the Little Rock burbs, so it's not like we're talking West Texas-type margins in these places, either.

        •  Umm... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          FYI, Hispanic turnout is probably 0.01%. In reality, more like 0.2%. That compares to being about 6% of population. Benton County (NW) grew 44%. Washington County (NW) grew 29%. Faulkner County (Suburbs) grew 32%. Saline County (Suburbs) grew 28%. Most of the Delta and Southern Arkansas lost population.

          38.33% of the vote came from the Little Rock suburbs and Northwest Arkansas. That's inhospitable vote. And that's going to increase every year. Until we work to be competitive there, we are going to lose elections not because of Blue Dogs but because of population gains.
           

          •  The point is that the white populations (0+ / 0-)

            in those places grew less quickly: 28% in Benton, 13% in Washington, 24% in Faulkner and 21% in Saline. That's significant over the course of a decade, but not astronomical. And according to exit polls non-black minorities were 5-6% of the vote in 2008, including 3% hispanic. 5% of Arkansas' population is equivalent to a little bit less than Washington County. But it's growing even faster than Washington is. So you can no more dismiss it than I can dismiss Washington county.

            At any rate, I'm certainly not denying there's a red trend in Arkansas. I just think Pryor is the right candidate to withstand it.

            •  Exit polls are the most factually inaccurate (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              thing ever. There's sampling error, skewed sample, and you select from a few precincts and not the entire electorate. If you don't believe me, go precinct by precinct in Springdale. You'll find 45%-55% Hispanic precincts. The results are about 70-30 for Republicans most of the time.

              If anybody can withstand the red tide, it's Pryor. But it's not Lean Democrat until Cotton, Womack and Darr have all declined.

          •  Washington County has Fayetteville (0+ / 0-)

            so it's not in the same league as the others you listed.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 08:24:14 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah absolutely, I understand that (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              But we're not seeing any Democratic voting outside of Fayetteville. Any precincts whatsoever (except one Blue Dog rural precinct in the far western corner of Washington County). So for all intensive purposes, the voters there are Hispanics who don't vote or Republicans.

  •  Redundant names. (7+ / 0-)

    My great-great grandfather, John Johnson, came to America from Sweden in the 1870s, and settled near where I live today. He is a small part (along with all the other social democratic Scandinavians that moved to western Wisconsin) that western WI goes blue in most elections.

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

    by WisJohn on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 10:42:39 AM PST

  •  Ooof David. That Springsteen pun was awful. (7+ / 0-)
  •  NH-Sen: That's kinda odd (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, Zack from the SFV

    thought he would run for NH-01 since Shea-Porter (almost typed "Cole Porter") is much easier to beat than Sen. Shaheen.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 10:55:09 AM PST

  •  Actually Springsteen performs better than Buono (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, jj32, WisJohn

    and Sweeney.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 10:58:54 AM PST

  •  Prop 8 case (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, MichaelNY

    Looks like the Supreme Court will decide very soon whether or not to hear the case.

    http://www.latimes.com/...

    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

    by lordpet8 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 11:49:15 AM PST

  •  who in your opinion makes the list of top 10 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    worst members of the house or senate (all time). Off the top of my head:

    Senate
    Helms
    Symms
    McCarthy
    Bilbo
    Hruska
    Curtis
    Inhofe
    DeMint
    Jenner
    Smith (NH)

    House
    Schmitz
    Savage
    McKinney
    Traficant
    Hoffman
    Rankin
    Alger
    Cooley
    McDonald
    Bachmann

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 11:54:26 AM PST

    •  Buz Lukens would definitely have to be on the (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, MichaelNY

      list of worst House members. Then there's one of Phil Crane's brothers that went down in the 80s because of some sex scandal. Also, any Oregonians here should remember Wes Cooley.

      Bilbo, I don't know. He was certainly a vicious racist, but so was most of the South at the time. He seemed productive with regard to some New Deal legislation. I'd put James Vardaman on the list in place of Bilbo.

      Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

      by Zutroy on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:14:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Dan Crane was implicated in the 80's page scandal (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Dan Crane, a Danville, Illinois-based Republican, was Mark Foley before Mark Foley. Dan was Phil's brother.

        Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:38:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Bilbo (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think he was much worse than other racist Southerners.  He wrote the book Segregation or Mongrelization.  He used to call people by the N word.  Others were much less overtly racist, even if they felt the same.

        You're an odd fellow, but you do make a good steamed ham.

        by Samara Morgan Dem on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 09:00:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Vardaman wore racism on his sleeve (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jncca

          just as much as Bilbo, if not moreso. So did J. Thomas Heflin over in Alabama. The way I see it, if we're going to take all these racists and parse over the different degrees of racism, we ought to delineate the ultra-racists who didn't have any other public service accomplishments as the worst.

          To that end, I put Vardaman and Heflin at the top of the list as quintessential Southern assholes. Racebaiting was the entirety of their careers; and they probably saw public service as nothing more than the occasional racist rhetoric in between afternoon naps and mint juleps. Bilbo, on the other hand, I'd put one tiny notch down. He was certainly a committed racist, but he actually governed Mississippi (infrastructure, education, and so on). That doesn't make his ideas on race less disgusting, but it puts him a notch down from Vardaman and Heflin because he was actually doing something productive in between racebaiting outbursts.

          Down another notch, I would put the less overtly racist Southerners, as you alluded to. Carter Glass, John Bankhead, and so on. They did the administrative legwork of keeping blacks disenfranchised, but they weren't writing volumes or giving histrionic speeches about it as they were working on things like Glass-Steagall or farm subsidies.

          Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

          by Zutroy on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 11:18:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Why is Smith of NH so bad? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:16:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Rankin (5+ / 0-)

      I assume you mean this Rankin:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      not this one:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:40:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The problem with this list is (7+ / 0-)

      it clearly was written by someone who is a progressive and lives in the 21st century. I don't think even a right-winger would argue with McCarthy (although maybe), but I don't know if Inhofe or Bob Smith belong on a list of all time worst Senators, even though I don't like either one.

      I mean, what about the guy back in the 19th century who almost beat Charles Sumner to death on the Senate floor? He was a rep, I believe. Surely he should be on a list like this somewhere.

    •  Where's "B-1 Bob" Dornan? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, JGibson, KingofSpades, WisJohn

         He belongs on the list more than space cadets Jim Traficant and Cynthia McKinney. They at least voted progressively at times on some policy areas. Both were entertainingly weird; Traficant is probably best remembered for his amazingly bad toupee that made Donald Trump look normal by comparison. Beam him up!

          Bob Dornan was hard-right on policy and was a loudmouth with anger issues.  I will always love Loretta Sanchez for defeating him in 1996. Of course Dornan had to almost be dragged out of Congress kicking and screaming  because he couldn't believe that she beat him. That election was indicative of the change between 20th and 21st century California politics, with the changes in demographics and voting patterns in many communities. The rise of the Latino vote is key to understanding the new California. The solidly GOP Orange County became a thing of the past.

          How about Randy "Duke" Cunningham? How much time did he do in free government housing? I don't think Rep. McKinney was worse than the Duke of Corruption, even if she did slap a cop or two...

          It is hard to come up with only ten of each type of congresscritter. First names would also be helpful too.  I really don't know which Rep. McDonald you are writing about.

      Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

      by Zack from the SFV on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 05:33:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  What is your problem with Gene McCarthy? (0+ / 0-)

      Although he was a bit cerebral, he is one of my heroes.

      I hope; therefore, I can live.

      by tietack on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:14:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Worst House members (0+ / 0-)

      Mel Reynolds, Robert Scott (Senator from Virginia), John Rarick, Duke Cunningham, Earl Landgrebe, and Enid Greene might also be good choices.  I thought that the McKinney referred to Stewart Mckinney, which confused me for a minute.

      You're an odd fellow, but you do make a good steamed ham.

      by Samara Morgan Dem on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 09:09:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  There has never been a Sen. Robert Scott (0+ / 0-)

        from Virginia.  There was one Robert Eden Scott who served the state House of Delegates and Provisional Confederate Congress in the 19th century, but I don't think that's who you're referring to.

        And surely you don't mean current Rep. Bobby Scott, an excellent, progressive African American Democrat?

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 09:24:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  there was a conservative senator from Virginia (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          in the 70s with the last name Scott

          RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

          by demographicarmageddon on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 03:03:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That was William Scott (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            And yes, he sucked.  A magazine called him the "dumbest man in Congress", and his voting record was firmly in Jesse Helms reactionary territory.  (Both were in the Senate Class of 1972, though Scott at least relieved voters of his service after one term.)

            37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 09:19:01 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  yeah i have my 74 almanac of american politics (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              it was considered a shock he unseated Bill Spong in 72 since he had won with 59% of the vote in the republican year of 1966. He decided to call it quits after one term and the seat went to the much less reactionary John Warner.

              Warner won a very close election in 1978 so its possible Scott would have had a tough race had he decided to run again.

              RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

              by demographicarmageddon on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 10:08:36 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  can't believe I forgot about Rarick (0+ / 0-)

        my list was done off the top of my head and probably would have put him on there had I thought longer.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 03:03:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  the case for Douglas Stringfellow (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen, jncca

      at least in the one-term house category

      Elected in 1952 from Utah.

      Claimed to have been an OSS agent who was held in Belsen and tortured to the point of being paraplegic (leading to a religious experience).

      Turned out he wasn't paraplegic (he could walk with a cane). He wasn't with the OSS. Wasn't any of that. Also claimed to have attended Ohio State and the University of Cincinnati and neither school could verify that.

      So he was forced to end his re-election campaign and he died in obscurity.

      It's a more audacious Wes Cooley

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 12:56:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I've always found it kinda ironic (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, gabjoh, MichaelNY

    that the original case of cat fud was FL-Sen 2010. The wound up working out... not so well for us.

  •  here's a precinct results map of the PDX metro (4+ / 0-)

    area, including Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, and Clark counties.

    I'll eventually have another statewide one, like I did earlier, but done by percentages, not raw votes like this one.  Notable results: Obama won Wilsonville very narrowly, North Plains, and even Estacada, but did a little worse overall in Clackamas County than I'd have expected.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:15:37 PM PST

    •  and I officially grew up in the second worst Obama (0+ / 0-)

      precinct out of the three counties.  Obama got 34% in the precinct where I grew up.  The one just south of it is the only worst one, at 31%.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:41:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Any plans or method of getting this into DRA? (0+ / 0-)

      I'd love to have partisan data on there for the metro area even if other counties aren't included.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:11:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't know if its possible to get precinct (0+ / 0-)

        results for some counties.  I never heard back from some that I contacted.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 08:12:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  but roguemapper is the person you should ask. (0+ / 0-)

        Frankly, the smaller counties with no or hard to get data are generally just counties that get dropped wholly or nearly so into much bigger districts, and the bigger counties with data that's available are where the action is.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 08:20:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Doggone redistricting (4+ / 0-)

      The Obama share of the vote in my precinct is down from 83.4 to 83%.

      I hope; therefore, I can live.

      by tietack on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:19:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Speaking of KY-Sen and Louisville. (4+ / 0-)

    I was briefly impressed that McConnell had begun his career as the Jefferson County Judge-Executive.  Until I read the next sentence, which said "However, Louisville and certain small cities were not under the County Judge's jurisdiction during that time."  

    Mitch did beat incumbent Todd Hollenbach by six points in 1977, and survived a narrow re-election in 1981 by 2 points against "Jim 'Pop' Malone".  

    Besides, I don't know how blue Jefferson was back then (and I'm guessing the suburbs that elected McConnell were redder than the county as a whole). Ford actually carried Jefferson County by 2 points or so in 1976 (two-party vote), which is interesting.  Reagan carried it relatively narrowly in 1980, although Anderson's vote share was down too.  Not sure how to deal with that.  Dukakis did a bit better in Jefferson County than nationally.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:16:24 PM PST

    •  I think Jefferson County (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

      is one of the few large counties to be consistently swingy over the last forty years or so.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:40:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ehh (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, WisJohn, MichaelNY

        It is definitely trending our way. I speak of local results as well when making that statement. I think the next time Republicans control redistricting here they will be forced to cede a Louisville seat to us as it will be so blue and they don't want two swing seats.

        •  Yeah (4+ / 0-)

          it's a tad bluer now than ten years ago, but it's been between R+5 and D+5 every election since 1976, I think.

          How many other counties with, say, over 250,000 people can say that?

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 02:01:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, it's always less blue than I think it is. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Obama got something like 56% of the two-party vote here.  That's pretty good, but it's not exactly "People's Republic Of" status.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 02:26:44 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  let's try it (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              what are other counties with over 250,000 residents that haven't been more than +5 of PVI in either direction in any election since 1976?

              Dakota County, Minnesota is a possibility (I'd exclude 1984)
              Bergen County, New Jersey?
              Some New York Counties?
              Who can come up with some?

              19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 02:44:56 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Now a days, the JeffCo J-E has even less power (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      the J-E has no salary, no duties, no office, so the last two J-Es have spent their time in office unsuccessfully running for other offices.

      Current Judge-Exec Bryan Mathews ran for the Metro Council and lost a primary, winning 9% and finishing 3rd.

      Ken Herndon ran for the State Senate, and lost the primary (by 10%). Then he ran for the Metro Council, and lost the primary (by 2.75%). Then he ran for the Metro Council in 2010 as a write-in, and lost. But he finished ahead of the incumbent, who was an Independent appointed as part of a compromise.

      In the last Jefferson County Judge-Executive election, the Democrat Mathews was 26, and the Republican nominee Jack Early was 85.

      So it is cool that Bryan Mathews found a job at 26, even if it doesn't involve a salary. So it's kind of like an unpaid internship or an elected volunteer spot.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 01:30:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  They haven't merged with the Louisville Mayor? (0+ / 0-)

        I'd have thought the position would disappear entirely with metro incorporation, just as the Davidson County Mayor position has been absorbed into the duties of the Nashville Mayor.

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

        by fearlessfred14 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 02:45:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  there's a Kentucky constitutional requirement (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xenocrypt

          or something like that.. so the positions are essentially there but meaningless.

          But Kentucky kept Railroad Commissioners for a few decades past having any powers too

          The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

          by RBH on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 03:33:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Can Obama reach a 3 million margin in CA? (5+ / 0-)

    Right now Obama is 100,134 votes away from beating Romney by 3,000,000 in california.  I don't think there are the votes left for him to make it, but it is possible.

    Dave Wasserman has the most updated overall count
    https://docs.google.com/...

    The state SoS website is running about 75k behind (in Obama's vote share).  This is due to apparently some counties (Santa Cruz, Mendocino, ...) updating their county websites but not telling the state about it officially.  

    The state also has an unprocessed ballots report
    http://www.sos.ca.gov/...
    which is not fully updated.  Currently it says 545k ballots are left to deal with, some counties are fully done (like Monterey and mendocino) and some are more done than the state says (like Santa Cruz and Los Angeles, the latter I think is close to done).

    So it is not possible to know how many votes aren't counted.  Two large numbers look to be right though: Contra Costa with 75k unprocessed ballots, and Sonoma with 40k.  Both these are 70% Obama counties, so they would offer Obama about 45k more in margin over Romney.

    The question thn becomes is there 55k+ more votes to be picked up from LA, Sacramento, Santa Cruz, San Diego, etc.

    Something to root for between now and Tuesday.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:26:08 PM PST

    •  I think there are closer to 400K to count (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

      Going by the difference in SoS's and Wasserman's numbers, plus some amount will be tossed. That means matching his 60/40 statewide split won't do it; he'll need at least a 25 point differential.

      •  I'm thinking under 200k (0+ / 0-)

        There have been three (maybe two) LA updates since that 215k number was posted, each of 60k or so.  I figure  in addition to the 115k in Contra Costa and Sonoma there are likely less than 20k left in LA, 23k in Fresno (+2k Obama), 9k in Santa Barbara, 8k in Santa Cruz, 12k in San Diego, 16k in Sacramento, 6k in Lake, 7k in Solano, and a smattering elsewhere.

        Zero in Monterey, Mendocino, San Mateo and San Joaquin.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 01:36:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Los Angeles updated again a couple hours ago (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MBishop1

          Adding 35k for Obama and 8k for Romney, 27k margin.

          I figure they gotta be done now, but that 27k does make a 3 million vote margin in CA now much more possible.  After the Fresno and LA updates this afternoon, the margin is about 70k... Wasserman hasn't updated yet, but Fresno is on their county site and LA has made it to the state site even.

          (Margin in Los Angels county alone is now over 1.3 million!)

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 04:16:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  LA must have at least a few ballots left to count (0+ / 0-)

            As the state shows there last update at 1:54 Nov 30... and the county as "CCU" which means "County Canvass Update".  CCC means done.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 04:21:08 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  So Obama netted more votes in LA county (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tommypaine, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

            than Romney did in Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas combined.

            I wonder how it would affect the psychology of perceptions of partisan strength if the vote distribution were reversed, and the little smudge in southern California were red, while those vast swathes from the Great Basin to the Midwest were blue.

      •  a 25% lead is possible in the vote (0+ / 0-)

           since they are mostly counting provisional ballots and some election day absentee ballots which are probably more Democratic than the state as a whole.

            I wouldn't count on that happening but it is quite possible. We'll know soon enough.

        Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

        by Zack from the SFV on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 05:40:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Several counties updated this afternoon (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that Wasserman has not updated yet; while conversely, some counties have updated and Wasserman has but the state doesn't.  I hope Wasserman catches up tonight.

      Wasserman currently has Obama 73k short of a 3m margin, while the state has him 79k short.  It's actually something a smaller number than both those, but I haven't added it up yet.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 05:56:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  PVIs (7+ / 0-)

    https://docs.google.com/...

    I'm using the Wasserman numbers and a huge coded spreadsheet to keep a running tally on completely updated PVI numbers.

    You can either bookmark this link OR you can access it through my signature by clicking on PVIs.

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:33:27 PM PST

  •  LA-GOV: Louisiana ed reform unconstitutional (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades, MichaelNY, condorcet

    I know this enters into policy a bit, but I only mean to discuss the electoral implications. Gov. Jindal's most significant legislative accomplishment was ruled unconstitutional by a state district judge in Baton Rouge today.

    LINK HERE

    Jindal's record on policy achievements will not look nearly as good n the eyes of national conservatives without this if/when he runs in 2016.

    For full disclosure purposes, I worked to pass parts of this package (tenure reform, charter school expansion, etc.) this year with a varied group of outside grassroots supporters.

    21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:40:03 PM PST

    •  So this is bad news for you? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 01:21:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Vouchers (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

        Good news, I really disdain Gov. Jindal. The portions the judge found unconstitutional are parts of the law I personally don't support.

        “Act 2 and SCR 99 unconstitutionally divert MFP funds that are constitutionally mandated to be allocated to public elementary and secondary schools to nonpublic entities in violation of Article VIII, section 13(B) of the Louisiana Constitution of 1974.  For this issue Declaratory Judgment is granted.”

        Basically, he ruled state money for private schools unconstitutional (to which I say duh).

        21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

        by Stephen Schmitz on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 01:26:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Well, that's good to hear. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Jindal's ed reform campaign was practically a class study of the corruption inherent in Louisiana politics.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 01:25:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, I think one big disadvantage to (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY

      a Ryan candidacy is that his whole political career(really his only job as an adult) has been in Congress. With very little to show for it, in terms of conservative policy.

      A governor could criticize Ryan by talking about conservative policy they have actually implemented in their state.

      •  Bobby Jindal's entire adult life has been spent in (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY, skibum59

        the government as well, if I recall correctly. To the point that he was heading a state agency at 24/25 because of merit and totally not because he knew the right people.

        So Jindal v. Ryan would be a fun matchup of "ideas people" whose ideas are essentially just stuff they cribbed from someone else during their time working for the government. Plus they both can talk about how the government employees are so bad and how government doesn't create jobs, while neither has been employed by a non-governmental entity since the Bush41 administration.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 01:47:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Neither will be President (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingofSpades

          I don't worry about either Jindal or Ryan winning in November.

          I worry more about others being able to win, including McDonnell and a few others.  Christie is making himself very popular now, maybe he's improved his political skill, but he ran such a lousy campaign in barely winning in 2009 and by what I read the Obama campaign wasn't worried about him if he ran and won the GOP nomination this time...and I read they actually feared Christie less than Romney, who they didn't really fear.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:22:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Jindal spent some time at McKinsey (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          the hotshot management consulting firm.

          I hope; therefore, I can live.

          by tietack on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:20:42 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Kinde Durkee Factor? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Something I was wondering that a Golden State politics buff might answer: did any Dems suffer in 2012 electorally because they had been victimized financially by the now-convicted treasurer-to-everyone?

    •  Not an expert on Golden State politics (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      but it doesnt appear that it had an effect on any candidates.

      Of the clients listed here, only Laura Richardson lost, and likely for reasons that had nothing to do with Durkee. Feinstein, Davis, and Sanchez were re-elected, Correa wasnt up for re-election this year, and Solorio was term limited.

      I remember last year there was some speculation that Durkee's actions might push Feinstein to retire.

  •  Counting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Does anyone know which states are done counting but have not yet certified their results? I'd like to go ahead and put those into my spreadsheet.

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 02:01:56 PM PST

  •  Mark Pryor off the hook? (7+ / 0-)

    The only other credible candidates to take on Pryor are Rep. Steve Womack and Lt. Gov. Mark Darr.  The former has not mentioned any interest in the race and the latter wants to be governor.  So with Griffin not running, and Crawford not running, is there really any other high profile Republican in Arkansas who could take him on?  I don't really take seriously anyone who tries to jump to the Senate while still in their first term in the House.  Just look at how it worked out for Rick Berg (R-ND).  Besides, they'd look like selfish political opportunists next to someone like Pryor, who has decades of careful public service to the state of Arkansas.

    Let's not forget how small Arkansas's Republican bench is - in 2008 they couldn't even find anyone to run against Pryor.  And even in 2010, they couldn't find any candidates to run for three downballot offices (and the Republicans probably would have won if they had!).

    This is great news for Dems though; if it starts to look (once we get into the race a bit) like Republicans aren't going to be tough in this race, we can focus money where we'll need it more.

  •  DC Circuit Court - Another Republican retiring (12+ / 0-)
    Judge David Sentelle, the chief judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, will be taking senior status in February, according to the U.S. Courts website.

    The move opens a fourth vacancy on the 11-judge court for President Barack Obama to try to fill during his second term.

    Sentelle was appointed by Reagan in 1987. This will reduce the court to a 4-3 Republican-appointee advantage with 4 vacancies.

    Obama has a chance to completely remake this court - which hears Congressional redistricing cases, among other things. The court last had a Democratic majority during Reagan's 2nd term.

    http://legaltimes.typepad.com/...

    Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

    by bear83 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 02:29:06 PM PST

    •  HoosierD42 will have to update his diary. nt (4+ / 0-)

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

      by WisJohn on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 02:42:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Obama has made two nominations already (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bear83, askew

      Caitlin Halligan and Sri Srinivasan. Halligan is the more "controversial" of the two.

      These nominations will move slowly given this is such a powerful court and GOP probably doesnt want two nominees in their 40s to be confirmed.

      In fact, Halligan is actually nominated to the spot left vacant by John Roberts 7 years ago when he became Chief Justice.

      •  This retirement puts greater pressure (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, KingofSpades, MichaelNY, askew

        on Republicans to accede to some of the nominations. I wouldn't be surprised if we see one or both of Obama's current candidates to this court approved during the lame duck.

        The more vacancies there are, the greater that pressure will be, including from conservative jurists on the court.

        •  Pressure - yes (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY, KingofSpades, askew

          Lame duck - no

          On Monday, the Senate will vote on the first judicial nominee in months - a district court judge nominated back in February.

          I seriously doubt we see much, if any, movement on Circuit Court judges before January - and then only if Senate Democrats fix the filibuster. If they don't, it will be February or March due to GOP delays, and far longer on these DC Circuit vacancies. They are much too important to let a bunch of "liberals" through.

          Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

          by bear83 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 05:43:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not really (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            "a bunch of liberals." Srinivasan actually served in the Inspector General's office under W. I suspect Obama is presenting the pair as a "balanced" addition to the court. I also doubt he would have renominated Halligan so early if he didn't expect to see movement on these picks before the new Congress.

    •  Sweet opportunity. (5+ / 0-)

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 04:20:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The DC Circuit (8+ / 0-)

      Is often considered to be the stepping stone to the Supreme Court (Ginsburg, Scalia, Thomas and Roberts were all members), which is probably part of why the Senate minority has refused to confirm a single one of Obama's nominations

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 04:27:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, that's got to end soon (4+ / 0-)

        If they were hoping for a GOP president to fill the slots, that's over, and they realistically can't stall for four more years.  Even if they did, Democrats would be justified in blocking later GOP nominees, and when would anyone get confirmed?

        Kind of surprised that Sentelle decided to (semi)retire under a Democratic President.  He's not only a Reagan nominee but headed the panel which selected "independent counsels", and most famously produced former GOP Solicitor General and sometime partisan activist Kenneth Starr to investigate the Clinton administration--a decision that was arrived at after lunch with then-Sens. Jesse Helms and Lauch Faircloth.  "Independent" counsel?  Um, sure....

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 08:57:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  This is a big big big big deal (8+ / 0-)

      It's more than redistricting, the D.C. Circuit is the primary circuit for so much in litigation where the U.S. Government is a party to the suit.  A lot of important seminal decisions are issued by the D.C. Circuit.  Getting these vacancies filled with Democrats is essential.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:25:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Meanwhile, on either side of DC (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, MBishop1, bear83

        Maryland and Virginia are in the 4th Circuit, which Obama has done a nice job of transforming, making a 10-5 majority of Democratic appointees.

        This must be especially sweet for the Clinton nominees on there; it wasn't that long ago when they were almost constantly in the minority on what was probably the right's favorite appeals circuit.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 09:02:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Re: Jason Altmire. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Darn, I would have liked to see him have a chance at Keith Rothfuss in PA-12. Oh well...

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

    by WisJohn on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 02:44:58 PM PST

  •  OC/SD presidential split in CA-49 (0+ / 0-)

    looking purely at the Presidential vote portion of Orange county in the 49th compared to the congressional vote, it looks like Obama did a whopping 4 points better than the generic dem we had.  Interestingly, Issa still got more raw popular votes than Mitt Romney did, but I suspect this may be due to people who voted for third parties at the presidential level (47,083 vs. 46,585).

    This makes me think Obama got close to winning in the SD portion of the district, or even won it outright, as our generic dem got 45% in his congressional race against Issa. Really interested to see how it pans out.  Sure hope San Diego counts all their votes soon.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

    by Daman09 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 03:00:15 PM PST

    •  For the future CA-49 race (0+ / 0-)

      If you believe that the highest a congressional dem will get in the OC portion of the district is 37%, which Obama garnered this year, it looks our candidate in the future would have to rake in about 54.6% of the vote in San Diego portion to get over the 50% mark.

      Anyone know where I can find results for the 2008 presidential election in the new 49th separated by county?

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

      by Daman09 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 03:24:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-01 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    Using these numbers...

    https://twitter.com/...

    ... WI-01 is still R+3

    https://docs.google.com/...

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 03:01:11 PM PST

    •  Also (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Kansas certified their results, they are currently R+12.

      Keep in mind that as Obama does better over time with absentees that these numbers will likely go up.

      I wouldn't be surprised to see WI-01 end up at R+4

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 03:02:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  There'd need to be lots of absentees (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        since right now the district is barely over R+3 the way it looks to me. Also, in West Virginia, Rahall might not be that liberal, but he does get a D, not an R, after his name.

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

        by fearlessfred14 on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 03:08:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  CA-10: Denham/Hernandez Rematch? (6+ / 0-)

    According to Roll Call, Jose Hernandez is considering a rematch with Jeff Denham, though he's not sure if he would want to do it in 2014 or 2016. The tradeoff is that it would be preferable to get him elected in 2014, but that 2016 would offer Presidential turnout and better demographics than what he had in 2012 or what he would have in 2014. It would be an interesting discussion for Hernandez to have with the DCCC. I think I would still prefer for him to run in 2014 because there are now far fewer California seats for Democrats to focus on, and we need to win every seat we can in an effort to reclaim the majority. It's definitely worth a shot.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 03:06:14 PM PST

  •  San Joaquin Valley (7+ / 0-)

    The trend is here.

    Not all counties are done counting, but...

    Madera County: R+10.3 to R+10.3
    Fresno County: R+2.6 to R+2.3
    Kings County: R+10.7 to R+9.4
    Tulare County: R+10.8 to R+10.2
    Kern County: R+12.5 to R+10.3
    Merced County: D+0.6 to D+2.6
    Stanislaus County: R+2.8 to R+0.4
    San Joaquin County: D+1.6 to D+5

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 03:31:51 PM PST

    •  Fresno updated an hour ago (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, DCal

      Of the (apparently) 23k ballots they had left to deal with, they added about 4000 -- 2500 for Obama, 1500 for Romney... which is preety wild as Romney still leads the county by 1650 votes (.67%) with maybe 18k ballots left to deal with.  If these break 5-3 toward Obama, that'd be about 4k more of a margin for Obama, giving him almost a 1% win for the county.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 04:02:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  So Jason Altimre (10+ / 0-)

    1. Dickishly and publicly concern trolled about the ACA
    2. Voted against the ACA
    and then
    3. Went on to become a lobbyist for the health insurance industry.

    I;m shocked I tell you, SHOCKED!

    •  Shuler is just as bad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      He has taken the job while still in Congress and this after acting self righteous, playing victim and proceeding to insult (I'll have a better job than you guys I'll tell you that) a couple of reporters from the Nation who asked him whether or not he would take a job as a lobbyist after he retired.

      Obviously none of this (or Altmire) is surprising, but I think still deserves to be called out.

    •  He was a health care lobbyist (5+ / 0-)

      prior to his election as well!

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 04:12:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  spurred by the discussion upthread (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I looked at which counties have been the swingiest between 1976 and today of the 100 most populous.  Every county on this list has been between R+5 and D+5 every one of those cycles, although I excluded years where there may have been a home state effect.

    Bexar County, Texas
    Jefferson County, Kentucky
    Pima County, Arizona
    Pierce County, Washington
    San Joaquin County, California

    By Avg PVI (absolute value):
    Bexar: 1.7
    Pierce: 2.1
    San Joaquin: 2.1
    Jefferson: 2.4
    Pima: 2.9

    Those are the five swingiest large counties in America over the last forty years.

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 04:08:46 PM PST

  •  CA-Assembly: 55th Dem seat? (9+ / 0-)

    In AD-36 (Lancaster/Palmdale), Republican Ron Smith is ahead of Democrat Steve Fox by just 318 votes out of 130,524, with Fox closing the gap since Election Day. This seat was held by GOPer Steve Knight, who won a seat in the state senate.

    Of course, making up the difference will be difficult, given that LA County is projected to finish counting on Sunday and there aren't a whole lot of ballots left. But this shows how much the Democrats have done to expand the playing field in California.

    Trivia: Fox was a registered Republican until 2009.

    22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

    by kurykh on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 05:54:46 PM PST

    •  Kern and San Ber-dino supposedly both done (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GradyDem, KingofSpades

      So that is good for Fox since he lost both those areas, while won the LA part... but unfortunately I don't think there are nearly enough votes left to be counted in LA for him to win since he's only getting 51.8% in the LA part.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 07:08:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Fox got 69% of the votes counted yesterday (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      Which is why the gap closed so dramatically. According to any analyst on Twitter, He'd need the remaining ballots to break by the same percentage to win by 94 votes.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 08:21:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I will be returning shortly! (11+ / 0-)

    I've had a busy couple of weeks, and don't worry. I haven't died or anything, if anyone happened to remember me in my absence!

    So never fear, I shall be back once my finals and piano technique exam are finished!

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:47:00 PM PST

  •  Obama crawling toward 3m margin in CA (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1, KingofSpades, bythesea

    As of this moment, Wasserman has Obama 67k short of a 3 million margin in CA.  (He just tweeted about including today's Savramento update.)

    But he is missing updates from Calveras, Kern and Toulame (totalling plus 500 or so for Romney), and Obama gain updates from Fresno (1000), Marin (3000), San Diego (1500), Tulare (500) and Sonoma (20,000)... for a total ballpark Obama gain of 25,500.

    So that puts Obama within 42,000.

    Not a lot of places with votes left.  The state list is way behind
    http://www.sos.ca.gov/...
    with Mariposa, Marin, mendocino, Marin, Sonoma and Tulare done, and San Joaquin and San Mateo probably done.

    That leaves 75k in Contra Costa (70% Obama), 15k or so in Fresno (even), 10k in Imperial/Lake (60% Obama), 13k in Santa Barbara (57% Obama), 8900 in Santa Cruz (75% Obama), 500 in Trinity (even)... plus some unknown number in LA (that I'd guess is not many).

    If those break like the above percentages, we would be right at the 3 million margin, give or take a few votes, not counting any from LA.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 06:51:54 PM PST

    •  The CA SoS site updated again at 7:30 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, WisJohn

      and shows Obama 79k short of a 3 million margin.  The state site does not yet include margins of 1k from Fresno, 8k from Mendocino, 17k from Santa Cruz and 20k from Sonoma.

      79k - 46k = 33k less than 3m margin

      The same vote is still outstanding as mentioned above, so a 3m margin from CA now looks likely.

      Sucks to be Mitt, even more.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 09:18:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  TX-09 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Skaje

    In the Harris County portion Obama won 98061-25297 (79-21) while in the Fort Bend portion Obama won 41104-11815 (78-22).

    Overall that puts him at 78.95% in the district, which is an improvement from the 76.47% he got in 2008. The district moved from 04/08 PVI of D+21 to D+25.

    That's a gigantic jump that matches well with the also large jump that the 20th took (from D+3 to D+7) and the smaller, but still important, leap that the 23rd had from R+5 to R+3.

    These numbers suggest to me that Obama sunk further with whites than has been thought so far.

    https://docs.google.com/...

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 10:43:42 PM PST

    •  TX-22 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Romney won there with 62.68% two party vote, is R+15 (same as previous).

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 12:09:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  TX-14 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        It is amazing that we were able to keep it as close in the congressional race as we did. Congrats to Trowaman and company for that, considering that Romney won here with 60.23% of the two party vote. It moved from R+8 to R+12, and is an addition to the large jump list below.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 12:21:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Note: (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          That's without a single precinct from Chambers County, which for some reason does not include precinct 13 on any of their official stuff. I've put in a question to Trowaman about this because the state doesn't include the county in their analysis of CD-14 either so it may just be because that precinct is empty.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 12:23:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  TX-2 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Obama got 35.75% two party here, stays exactly the same at R+16, and it was in yearly terms exactly R+16 in both 2008 and 2012, which means that it was also R+16 in 2004 as well.

            I.E. Despite the very rapidly growing Hispanic population in the inner city portion of the district, they haven't had any effect whatsoever on the voting tendencies of the district.

            They're just probably counterbalanced by the growing conservative white population in the outer Harris County areas of the district.

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 01:35:57 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Yup (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Chachy

      Most of the estimates I've seen are that Obama got around 20% of the white vote in Texas.  At least, the math works out that way considering the estimates of what he got among Latinos and other minorities.

      It makes sense too just from looking at the way specific counties moved.  The heavily Latino counties of South Texas saw shifts even further our way compared to 2008.  Webb in particular went 11 points bluer.  Then you look at the rural counties in North and East Texas...Romney was in the 75-85% range for most of them, in many cases seeing ~10 point improvements over McCain.  The cities largely held even.

      Texas will become a swing state when the rurals stop trending so hard against us and level off.  Until then, it wipes out our gains among minorities.

      •  Yeah (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Chachy, James Allen, Skaje, MichaelNY

        But after looking at the few congressional districts I've finished (btw, I've also finished TX-31) I think we may be slightly below 20% of the white vote now which may actually be better for us because I'm inclined to believe that the closer we get to 15% the more likely we are to have hit our floor.

        If that's the case, then unless we start doing worse with minorities (Hispanics in particular) in Texas we will not sink below 44% again in the state in a Presidential (four years from now the electorate will be more minority, enough to bring us back up a notch).

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 04:24:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why do you think 15% is the floor? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY
        •  Obama is at 41.99% of the two party vote (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Audrid, Chachy, okiedem, Skaje

          This is my model:

          (75 percent of 21) plus (98 percent of 13) plus (72 percent of 4) plus (17 percent of 62)

          41.91%

          Simply looking at county performances along the border and at precinct performances in overwhelmingly African American precincts (check the performances in the 9th, for instance) suggest to me that this breakdown is probably the closest to the truth that we can get without doing a statistical analysis using precinct data (which would take a lot of work to prepare for).

          I know that nationally Hispanics went for Obama less than Asians, but it isn't unreasonable to flip them in Texas because the share of Asians that are Vietnamese is higher here (they're Republican leaning, but trending our way).

          Holding the vote shares stable among the ethnic groups and assuming current growth patterns hold (and a slight drop-off of AAs immediately after Obama is no longer on the ticket), things should go like this from here on out (obviously this won't account for national factors or any swing, but it's pretty neutral given that this year was a "close" race).

          2016: (75 percent of 23) plus (98 percent of 11) plus (72 percent of 5) plus (17 percent of 61) = 42.00%

          2020: (75 percent of 25) plus (98 percent of 11) plus (72 percent of 6) plus (17 percent of 58) = 43.71%

          2024: (75 percent of 27) plus (98 percent of 10) plus (72 percent of 7) plus (17 percent of 56) = 44.61%

          2028: (75 percent of 29) plus (98 percent of 10) plus (72 percent of 8) plus (17 percent of 53) = 46.32%

          2032: (75 percent of 32) plus (98 percent of 9) plus (72 percent of 9) plus (17 percent of 50) = 47.80%

          2036: (75 percent of 36) plus (98 percent of 9) plus (72 percent of 10) plus (17 percent of 45) = 50.67%

          2040: (75 percent of 40) plus (98 percent of 8) plus (72 percent of 11) plus (17 percent of 41) = 52.73%

          2044: (75 percent of 45) plus (98 percent of 8) plus (72 percent of 12) plus (17 percent of 35) = 56.18%

          Ofcourse it's ridiculous to go along with such assumptions over such a long span of time, but that only goes to show you that the idea that Texas will some day soon be a swing state is patently absurd. Even if you go out all the way to 2040 it is just barely getting to competitive. And it isn't until 2044 that the demographics really start to hit home (very similar to how they just went BAM for California and suddenly it was blue instead of competitive).

          We need something much more dramatic to happen if we really want Texas to swing blue, because long term trends give Republicans ample time to prepare and to account for it.

           

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 04:50:47 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Definitely agree with your general assessment BUT (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Chachy

            I think your demographic forecast might be a little pessimistic. The growth of the Hispanic population of the electorate (if not of the state as a whole) is likely to not be at a constant rate but rather to be at an accelerating rate. There is a very large pool of young hispanic American-born citizens who will be eligible to vote where there parents are not. As they age there will be a sudden and rapid increase in the hispanic share of the electorate.

            I'd also add that the white vote will likely settle at a slightly higher level since the white population growth will primarily be in the cities and primarily come from migrants from other states. These migrants would nudge the white vote to the left since only Deep South white voters vote less than 20% Democratic (even states like OK, KS, AR are 25-30% Democratic).

            As such I think Texas will become competitive sooner than you're suggesting if still much further away then some of the more optimistic commenters would claim.

            I would think the state would be likely to progress something like this (note that I'm assuming the black vote goes down to more usual 90-10 margins and that our hispanic margin lessens somewhat):

            2016: (70 percent of 23) plus (90 percent of 11) plus (72 percent of 5) plus (18 percent of 61) = 40.58%

            2020: (70 percent of 26) plus (90 percent of 11) plus (72 percent of 6) plus (20 percent of 57) = 43.82%

            2024: (70 percent of 30) plus (90 percent of 10) plus (72 percent of 6) plus (22 percent of 54) = 46.2%

            2028: (70 percent of 34) plus (90 percent of 10) plus (72 percent of 7) plus (23 percent of 49) = 49.11%

            2032: (70 percent of 39) plus (90 percent of 10) plus (72 percent of 8) plus (25 percent of 43) = 52.81%

            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 07:59:40 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Look again (0+ / 0-)

              I have it at an accelerating rate:

              +2, +2, +2, +2, +3, +3, +4, +4, +5.

              I think a more backloaded acceleration is a better fit of reality.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 05:11:07 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  I would disagree (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            okiedem

            with a couple of things here. I don't expect the black vote to go 98-2 for the Democrats in perpetuity; I think it'll return to the pre-Obama 90-10 baseline. But I also don't think the black population will shrink as a percentage of the electorate like you say it will; it actually grew at a faster rate than the state as a whole from 2000-2010. And it should also stay closer to the 13% it was in 2008 - slightly above census since blacks, like whites, are disproportionately citizens.

            In my own projection, I estimated a hypothetical electorate that would be 48/31/14/7 W/H/B/O for 2025, which would extrapolate to about 45/33/14/8 for 2028. I also predicted Dem shares of 27% for whites, 62% for hispanics, 90% for blacks, and 60% for others, which would yield an overall Dem vote share for 2028 of... 50.01% of the two-party vote.

            I swear it just worked out that way.

            BUT: In light of the 2012 results, I think it's clear that Texas voting patterns are on a course to be much more racially polarized than I was assuming. What's interesting, though, is that by 2028 it hardly changes the outcome: assuming Dems win 18% of whites, 73% of hispanics, 90% of blacks, and 65% of others, Dems would get... 49.99%.

            So increased polarization will cause Dems to suffer in the near future, but given inevitable demographic change, it will be a wash by 2028.

            My projection here is more optimistic than yours because I'm anticipating larger hispanic and black shares of the 2028 electorate. But I think you really need to take rapid population growth and high citizenship rates for blacks into consideration; and the absolute time bomb that is the young Hispanic population. Change will be  gradual for the rest of this decade, but the composition of the electorate is going to start to change really rapidly around 2020. Consider that for the Houston and DFW areas, citizenship rates for over-18 hispanics are in the 40-50% range (some of the lower rates in the state). But it's above 90% for hispanics under the age of 18. Almost all of those kids will be voting age by 2028, and a bunch of old whites will have fallen off the shelf.

            So I'm sticking to my guns: Texas will be a toss-up in 2028.

  •  Large Jumps (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, WisJohn, itskevin

    Of the districts we have data for so far, here are PVI changes of four or more points:

    Towards Republicans:

    KY-5: R+16 to R+25 (-9)
    AR-1: R+7 to R+14 (-7)
    AR-4: R+9 to R+15 (-6)
    OK-2: R+14 to R+20 (-6)
    KY-1: R+14 to R+18 (-4)
    LA-3: R+15 to R+19 (-4)

    Towards Democrats:

    GA-13: D+9 to D+16 (+7)
    HI-1: D+11 to D+18 (+7)
    HI-2: D+14 to D+21 (+7)
    CA-46: D+3 to D+9 (+6)
    FL-9: D+4 to D+9 (+5)
    FL-27: R+6 to R+2 (+4)
    GA-4: D+17 to D+21 (+4)
    IN-7: D+9 to D+13 (+4)
    TX-9: D+21 to D+25 (+4)
    TX-20: D+3 to D+7 (+4)

    As we fill up the chart I expect to see similar regional movement, with minority areas becoming much more Democratic and with Appalachian or similar areas becoming much more Republican and practically everywhere else staying put or moving only slightly.

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 11:00:03 PM PST

  •  Shout-Out (0+ / 0-)

    I just have to give a HUGE shout out to Jefferson County (Beaumont) Elections for their amazingly easy to use - and beautiful to boot - Elections website:

    http://jefferson-tx.connect4.clarityelections.com/

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 12:15:44 AM PST

  •  Obama PV lead up to 3.57% (5+ / 0-)

    3.6 rounded.  4% further rounded.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 06:10:29 AM PST

  •  Just noticed Rasmussen's Party Data from Oct 31 (5+ / 0-)

    ref http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

    33.3/39.1/27.5 (D/R/I)

    National exit poll

    38/32/29 (D/R/I)

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 06:31:19 AM PST

  •  More CA presidential results by district (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    These aren't two way numbers.

    District Obama Romney
    8 41.66% 55.63%
    31 57.24% 40.64%

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 09:30:20 AM PST

  •  Maine CD results (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, jj32

    Only one county is split, so this only took me about 10 minutes to crunch. There are about 3,000 votes not applied to any particular locality. I guess they're absentees or something like that. There are also "blank" votes listed, which I did not count as part of the totals.

    ME-01:

    Obama 221,952 (59.35%), Romney 142,573 (38.13%), Total 373,949

    ME-02:

    Obama 177,283 (52.74%), Romney 148,845 (44.28%), Total 336,177

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