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8:59 AM PT: VA-Gov: Once in a while, I do get things right. Back in June, Republicans formally did away with their primary and instead choose their gubernatorial nominee via convention. Concentrating decision-making power in the hands of the hardest-core activists was only going to benefit Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, a movement conservative darling, and make life impossible for Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, the establishment choice who'd patiently waited his turn to run for governor. And what did I say at the time?

I'm not even sure how Bolling has any shot at the nomination now and I wouldn't be surprised if he gave up.
On Wednesday, bowing to the inevitable, Bolling did indeed drop out of the race. I don't even think he could have won an ordinary primary, but a convention was definitely a fridge too far—something he himself recognized in saying that party regulars had put up "too many obstacles for us to overcome" by deliberately choosing the convention route.

Now there's a question as to whether Bolling will seek re-election as LG, something he has yet to address publicly. While Virginia has the strictest-in-the-nation term limits for its governors, there are no limits whatsoever on the number two spot. However, a whole ton of other Republicans have already declared their plans to run for lite gov, though, and guess what? That nod, as with the gubernatorial slot, will also get decided via convention. So it's possible Bolling could even get squeezed out of renomination to his own job. Double ouch.

As for the governor's race, I'm going to say that this move is not a major positive for Democrats, and if anything might be a negative. Bolling tended to slightly out-perform Cuccinelli in hypothetical head-to-head matchups with Democrats, and the Cooch definitely has worse favorability ratings with left-leaning voters, so there's little doubt Dems would prefer to face him in the general. But that was already extremely likely—as I say, it's why Bolling dropped out.

Still, though, a nomination fight would have pushed the already-mega-wingnutty Cuccinelli even further to the right, whereas now he can try to moderate himself a bit. That said, Cuccinelli is a true believer and probably is intellectually disinclined to changing his profile—and in any event, it's not like he doesn't already have a long track record of extreme statements and actions that can be used against him. So for all this sturm und drang, I expect Bolling's departure to change little.

P.S. There's also a little bit of news on the Democratic side, where "sources close to" ex-Rep. Tom Perriello, a favorite of many progressives, tell the Huffington Post that he's considering a run for governor. That would set him up (in a normal primary—Dems don't do the convention thing) against 2009 candidate and former DNC chief Terry McAuliffe.

10:48 AM PT: AZ-02: Dem Rep. Ron Barber recently underwent surgery to remove what is described (at least in the headline) as a "minor" tumor on his tongue and expected to return to work next week. We wish him a speedy recovery.

10:55 AM PT: DE-Sen: This is sketchy as all get-out, but local reporter Jonathan Starkey suggests that Beau Biden could challenge Sen. Chris Coons in the Democratic primary—even though Biden has already said he plans to seek re-election as Delaware's attorney general. I really can't see this happening, particularly since it would look like a real betrayal of Coons, who got into the race back in 2010 when moderate ex-Rep. Mike Castle looked set to crush all comers—and when Biden would not.

Coons lucked out tremendously, of course, when lunatic Christine O'Donnell won the GOP nod, and Biden's only "justification" for running would be that he's, well, Beau Biden. So this truly does not seem like a winning move, which is why I doubt Starkey's throw-away line is anything other than pure speculation. (And yeah, even though Coons won office just two years ago, he's already up for re-election since his first race was actually a special election to fill out the final four years of Joe Biden's term.)

11:17 AM PT: GA-Sen: Two well-known names are taking themselves out of consideration for the 2014 Georgia Senate race: Herman Cain, who should never run for any office anywhere, and John Barrow, who would be quite wise to stick with his current gig. Barrow, one of the very last remaining Blue Dog Democrats holding down a conservative Southern seat, would need some Richard Mourdock-style help to even have a shot statewide—and even then, I wonder whether that would be enough.

But you know who just might be enough? RedState founder and CNN analyst (god, I wish I were joking about that last bit) Erick Erickson, who says he's giving "prayerful consideration" to a run against Sen. Saxby Chambliss in the GOP primary. Erickson has a lifetime's worth of idiotic and inflammatory statements under his belt (here's a good recent example of the former, courtesy Dana Houle, and here's one of the latter), so if he could somehow unseat a sitting senator (which I seriously doubt), he'd make for excellent fun in the general election. This is all probably b.s., though, since Erickson pulled a Palin and quit halfway through his one term in elected office, as a member of the Macon city council. But we can dream!

11:28 AM PT: House: This should definitely help Republicans win over a key constituency that has been so important to Democratic success: Of the dozen most important committees in the GOP-controlled House, not a single one will be chaired by a woman in the upcoming 113th Congress. (Five of the ranking members—i.e., the senior-most member from the Democratic minority—are likely to be women.) Of course, this is as much a symptom as it is a cause given how few women office-holders are actually, you know, Republicans.

11:47 AM PT: NJ-Gov, NJ-Sen: Here are those Quinnipiac numbers testing GOP Gov. Chris Christie against a variety of potential Democratic contenders, and they're basically the same as what Rutgers found a day earlier—so in other words, exactly what you'd expect. The carnage (with mid-October trendlines in parentheses):

• 53-35 vs. Newark Mayor Cory Booker (46-42)
• 57-30 vs. state Sen. Richard Codey (47-41)
• 61-23 vs. state Sen. Barbara Buono (49-33)
• 62-20 vs. Assemblyman Lou Greenwald (50-31)
• 62-21 vs. Assemblyman John Wisniewski

The one thing Quinnipiac has that Rutgers doesn't are, in fact, those trendlines, which illustrate just how stark an effect Hurricane Sandy's had on this (hypothetical) race. As I've said, you have to expect Christie's newly sky-high approval ratings to sag, but the point is that Democrats have to make up their minds now, and top-tier contenders might be unwilling to bet their political futures on a Christie fade.

In case someone (or more than one someone) does, though, Quinnipiac offers their first primary matchups, kitchen-sink style. No one's actually running yet, but unsurprisingly, Booker has a huge lead, taking 41 percent. Codey's the only other candidate who even registers, with 12, while Buono, Greenwald, and Wisniewski (all with name recognition in the teens) are at 4, 1, and 1 respectively.

Interestingly, though, it's not just Christie whose standing has improved: Both Barack Obama and New Jersey's two Democrat senators, Bob Menendez and Frank Lautenberg, have also seen their job approvals rise in the Garden State. While Obama and Menendez might be experiencing a bit of a post-election bounce, more notable are Lautenberg's numbers, which, at 49-33, are some of the best he's seen in a while. Importantly, he's at 65-14 approvals among Democrats, which may be a factor in whether any Dems try to challenge the 88-year-old Lautenberg in the 2014 primary. (Of course, he could finally re-retire, but Lautenberg seems to have little interest in giving up his seat, particularly since he didn't seem happy doing so once before, back in 2000.)

12:17 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-Gov: Washington's gubernatorial race had some very superficial similarities to the presidential race -- charismatic but vague Dem vs. a stiff Republican who couldn't decide if he was a moderate or a conservative -- and here's one more reason to add to that comparison: the Dems' ground game advantage was decisive. The Dems spent $2 million on GOTV with 55 paid field workers, while the GOP spent $300K with 15 paid field workers. The Inslee camp made a million phone calls and 300K door knocks in the last five days, and their efforts may be seen in the fact that Dem-heavy King County's turnout was 84%, well ahead of the state's average at 81%.

12:23 PM PT (David Jarman): Ohio: You might remember that around a year ago, I analyzed the question of "Which swing state is swingiest?" and, over the last 25 years or so, the state that was reliably the closest to national norms was Ohio. Well, the numbers-crunchers at Univ. of Minnesota's Smart Politics added another 150 years to the timeframe... and still found that Ohio is the nation's swingiest state, over the period from 1828 until now. The Buckeye State has had both the lowest average victory margin (8.8%) and the highest percentage (49%) of under-5% margins over the years.

1:02 PM PT: NH-Sen: On behalf of the PCCC, Public Policy Polling has what looks like the first 2014 Senate poll we've seen. They've tested freshman Dem Sen. Jeanne Shaheen against the man she defeated in 2008, John Sununu, and find her with a solid 53-42 lead. Of course, neither Sununu nor anyone else has stepped forward to challenge Shaheen, but he probably has the highest name recognition of any potential candidate (though he also probably has more baggage than anyone else, thanks to his family name). Regardless of who she winds up facing, though, Shaheen has to be pretty happy with her 51-36 job approval score, given how weak most politicians' ratings have been these last several years.

1:08 PM PT: Though apparently not everyone's been scared off by Christie's newfound strength: State Senate President Stephen Sweeney is reportedly planning to run for governor, but only if Booker declines. Booker recently confirmed he's considering a bid but didn't offer a timetable for a decision, saying only that he'll make up his mind "as quickly as possible".

1:19 PM PT: NC-07: It looks like the recount in North Carolina's 7th District is just about over, with 11 of 12 counties completing their review. Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre now has a 663-vote lead over Republican David Rouzer, up slightly from his 655-vote edge before the recount began. And even once results are final in the one laggard, Duplin County, it's incredibly unlikely for the overall tally to change. Rouzer could actually seek a second recount (a so-called "hand-eye" recount, where paper ballots are examined manually, rather than fed through counting machines again), but again, it's almost inconceivable that such an effort would alter the outcome.

1:30 PM PT: NY-St. Sen: Is there anyone more permanently butthurt in New York politics than Jeffrey Klein, leader of the breakaway pack of four state Senate Democrats known as the "Independent Democratic Conference"? Thanks to this renegade quartet, which has long cozied up to Republicans, it looks like Democrats won't be able to assert control over the Senate next year, even though a majority of senators were elected this month with a (D) after their names. Klein's been cagey ever since election day, but in a new interview with the New York Times, he's now made it clear he prefers some sort of power-sharing agreement between Dean Skelos's Republicans and the IDC.

But there's no ideological dispute between Klein's gang of wreckers and the rest of the Democratic Party—Klein recently claimed he wanted to "further our progressive Democratic agenda." Rather, it's all about egos, since Klein seems to have personal issues with whatever passes for the mainstream Democratic leadership these days, and vice-versa. But however sad-sack Senate Dems might be, it's Klein who wants to make deals with the Republicans. Somehow, he's even tortured himself into claiming that he's doing the right thing:

"We're not empowering a Republican majority; we're talking about a coalition government. I consider myself a very good Democrat."
Considers himself a very good Democrat? That would definitely be Jeff Klein, party of one.

1:35 PM PT: NY-23: Tompkins County Legislator Nate Shinagawa, who surprised a lot of folks by losing to GOP Rep. Tom Reed by only about four points despite getting heavily outspent, says he's thinking about a repeat bid in 2014. However, Shinagawa says it was financially stressful to take a leave from his day job for a year, and adds that whether he can get some outside help "from unions, the DCCC, environmental groups" will play a role in his thinking.

1:57 PM PT: But Bolling did manage to surprise me with this wild curveball: In response to a direct question about whether he might run as an independent instead, Bolling explicitly refused to rule out the notion, saying: "I learned a long time ago in politics that you shouldn't ever say never." The query was prompted by his declaration that he was only "suspending," not ending, his campaign—and not even his campaign in general, but rather only his "campaign for the Republican Party's nomination for Governor of Virginia." Bolling even said he intends to remain involved "as a more independent voice." It's hard to see how Bolling wouldn't hurt Cuccinelli far more than the eventual Democratic nominee if he were on the ballot as an indie, but I'd love to see some polling of a three-way.

2:19 PM PT: WV-Sen: Here's one more detail to add to the insta-drama in the GOP over Rep. Shelley Moore Capito's entry into the West Virginia Senate race: Karl Rove's American Crossroads has come out with a statement in defense of Capito, who's been attacked by purist wingnut groups over her insufficient fealty to movement conservative causes. Says Crossroads: "It’s distasteful to see Washington politicos clubbing Republican candidates right out of the gate—especially ones with the guts to challenge an entrenched incumbent, and who enjoy the broad base of local support that Shelly Moore Capito appears to have." Nothing like a little cat fud to start the new cycle off right!

2:26 PM PT: Oh, and nuts to any talk about Bolling seeking re-election. Get a load of how bad the blood is here: "Under normal circumstances, I would be open to the possibility of running for another term as lieutenant governor, but I would not be interested in running on a statewide ticket with Mr. Cuccinelli."

2:30 PM PT: KY-Sen, KY-Gov: Dem Lt. Gov. Jerry Abramson confirms that he will not run for Senate in 2014, but says that he's "not ruling out" a bid for governor in 2015, when the man he works for, Gov. Steve Beshear, is term-limited out of office.

2:41 PM PT: IL-02: Just in case the Democratic primary wasn't already enough of a clown show, disgraced ex-Rep. Mel Reynolds is now jumping into the game. And I'm not using the word "disgraced" lightly: If you aren't familiar with Reynolds, he served a little over one term before resigning from Congress after being convicted of "12 counts of sexual assault, obstruction of justice and solicitation of child pornography," in the wake of his statutory rape of a 16-year-old campaign volunteer. He was also later convicted of "15 unrelated counts of bank fraud and lying to SEC investigators."

Remarkably, Bill Clinton commuted Reynolds' bank fraud sentence, and Reynolds later tried to reclaim his old seat in 2004, receiving all of 6 percent in the Democratic primary against then-Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (the man who replaced him following his resignation in 1995). I can't imagine how delusional he must be to think he has any future politics, though I'd love to meet a 2012-era Mel Reynolds donor. I mean, who the hell would give money to that guy? Actually, on second thought, am I nuts? I definitely don't want to meet anyone like that!

2:45 PM PT: TN-04: State Rep. Kevin Brooks, whom we mentioned even before the election, looks like he's the first Republican to publicly moot a challenge to scandal-plagued Rep. Scott DesJarlais. He did not provide a timetable for a decision, though.

2:58 PM PT: CA-Gov: We've gone on at length about how eviscerated the GOP bench is in California, but I'm never opposed to providing further examples, so here's one. Assemblyman Tim Donnelly, a supposedly former member of the anti-immigration nutjobs known as the "Minutemen," says he's considering a gubernatorial bid in 2014. If that name sounds at all familiar (though I'm betting it won't, since he really is a nobody), it's because Donnelly tried to bring a loaded handgun on board a plane in his carry-on luggage earlier this year. Nice going, genius.

3:09 PM PT: CO-06: I mentioned Democrat Joe Miklosi's narrow loss to GOP Rep. Mike Coffman the other day specifically because late-counted votes wound up narrowing his margin considerably from election night, moving the spread from about five points to less than two. But there's another point I'd like to make as well, one which I glanced over very briefly in this post about whether Libertarian candidates cost Republicans any seats. While there was indeed a Libertarian, Patrick Provost, who took about 8,600 votes on the ballot here, more important was the presence of independent Kathy Polhemus, who amassed over 13,400 votes.

Polhemus matters more not just because of her larger vote share, which was almost twice as big as Coffman's 7,000-vote win over Miklosi, but because she's a former Democrat who even maxed out to Obama in 2008. Polhemus had a bit of a profile as the founder of the charity Dress for Success and self-funded almost $100K. She actually tried to run to the middle, bizarrely berating Miklosi as "beholden to the far left of the party," but it's hard to imagine that her candidacy hurt Coffman more than Miklosi.

Now, it might also make sense to argue that Provost dug into Coffman's share, but he didn't even file an FEC report. So it seems reasonable to conclude that Polhemus had the bigger impact, and even if she didn't hand the race to Coffman, it's likely that this already-tight contest would have been even closer had she not appear on the ballot. (Indeed, Miklosi supporters begged her not to run.) And it's yet another reason why Coffman should be at the very top of Democratic target lists for 2014.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:00:06 AM PST

  •  IL-02: Apparently Toi Hutchinson (4+ / 0-)

    announced yesterday. In other news Mel Reynolds is running

    http://abclocal.go.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:10:49 AM PST

  •  Husband-Wife Teams in Congress (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, WisJohn, jncca, MichaelNY

    I can think of three instances of two members of Congress getting married while they're both in Congress or after at least one has left Congress: Mary Bono and Connie Mack, Max Sandlin and Stephanie Herseth, and Susan Molinari and Bill Paxon.  Are there any other instances of members who served together in Congress getting married?

  •  InTrade and Political Prediction Markets (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    The Commodities Future Trading Commission decided to sue the InTrade for offering improper options trading. The official complaint involves those markets for gold and oil, not for political predictions, and supposedly filin false forms. However, all of the academic talk (which, for what it's worth, seems to be decidedly against this move) seems to bring up political prediction markets as well.

    I'll fully admit to not completely understanding all of this stuff. Perhaps I'll get a better sense of what it's about as I try to read more. It seems interesting but, particularly in the case of political predictions markets, kind of...minor, almost immaterial. Felix Salmon's blog links to this paper, which says that the prediction markets can be as accurate as aggregated polling data and can be valuable to political scientists, who can use it to, say, examine "shocks" on campaigns. He also links to economist Justin Wolfers, who links to an economist named Eric Zitzewitz that wrote a post entitled "The folly of making political prediction markets like Intrade illegal."

    As I said, I don't really understand all of this, but upon first glance, this seems like an odd decision. Even if there's really no gain to this activity, is there a lot of harm? More importantly, though, I'm interested in the difference between this and, say, Nate Silver's model. As I understand it, there's a big difference between InTrade and Silver's model, which is that the former is speculative with many participants and the latter far less so, as it's not involving monetary bets and has a clear formula for getting its results.

    A few people here have questioned the validity and/or worthiness of things like InTrade. You guys, particularly the academics among us, always seem to have interesting links, so I figured I'd bring it up and see what's out there.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:37:00 AM PST

  •  Results (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wu ming, MichaelNY

    Is there any website that is keeping 2012 election results current as the provisionals and other stragglers are being counted.

    Would love to see a county by county map of Ohio with the updated results. I know Stark flipped, but there were quite a few other close counties where provisionals may turn them blue (Lake, Jefferson, Pike off the top of my head).

    A liberal knows that the only certainty in this life is change but believes that the change can be directed toward a constructive end.--Henry Wallace

    by 54cermak on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:44:52 AM PST

  •  This article annoyed me (13+ / 0-)

    http://www.reuters.com/...

    It uses the neutralish term "proponents of same sex marriage" for the good guys, while using the term "supporters of marriage between a man and a women," a weaselly term that implies that marriage equality activists opposite opposite sex marriage or at least that same sex marriage is a threat to opposite sex marriage. They even use the term "traditional marriage" once, although admittedly that's a lead in to a quote. Nowhere in the article is the term "marriage equality" mentioned except in the name of an organization. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like this from FOX, but I thought Reuters was better than this.

    •  I don't insist on the use of "marriage equality" (0+ / 0-)

      But any implication that people who support legalization of same-sex marriage are opposed in any way to heterosexual marriage is ridiculous and rather offensive.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:16:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm fine with using the neutral term (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        "same-sex marriage" for both opponents and proponents, even though "marriage equality" better describes what I support, because I probably believe more strongly that the state shouldn't be discriminating against same sex couples than I believe that the government should be marrying people, although I do believe both. My point was just that they were using a non-neutral term for one but not the other.

  •  NY-Sen: Breakaway Democrat Favors G.O.P. Coalition (5+ / 0-)
    Mr. Klein has largely stayed out of the public eye since the Nov. 6 election left control of the Senate in dispute. But in the interview, he made clear that the independent Democrats were not interested in reuniting with their colleagues behind a Democratic Senate leader. Democrats had a majority in the Senate in 2009 and 2010, when Mr. Klein was deputy leader, but their control of the chamber was hampered by an embarrassing coup and infighting.

    “We can’t go back to the days of dysfunction,” Mr. Klein said. “We can’t go back to the days of relying on every single Democrat to get things done, ignoring the other side completely, jamming through a legislative agenda which doesn’t have bipartisan support.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/...
    •  what an asshole (10+ / 0-)

      Just look at the State Senate map if you want to see what "working with Republicans" gets you.

    •  At this point, what do we do? (5+ / 0-)

      Why not target these people directly? What's the worst that could happen to us?

      If the districts for these people really that hard for us? Are there any other districts for us to target, or have we reached our realistic limit? I'm not sure what the political situation is like in these areas. Perhaps there's no way to dislodge the incumbents. But if there is, there should be serious consideration given to attempting to do so.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 07:25:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think we have many (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        other expansion options left. Maybe we could challenge a couple of seats in Long Island. Things should trend our way in some other districts by 2016.

        Republicans will several pickup chances in 2014.

        I don't think any Democrat besides David Carlucci could win in his district. Taking him on probably costs the seat.

        The IDC members are fairly well liked in their districts. I really don't think we can beat them in primaries. Also that will waste a huge amount of money, and give Republicans and edge.

        Alsoi, I wouldn't be surprised if either Terry Gipson or Cecilia Tkaczyk (the two undecided races) join the IDC.

        M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

        by slacks on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:50:48 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Given that these districts aren't (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          particularly huge, perhaps targeting them in a much more intense way would be effective.

          Take the Brian Foley/Ceasar Trunzo race from 2008 as a good starting point. We can go back to 2002, we see that Trunzo won by considerable margins (and ran on several party lines), as he had represented the area for over three decades. (I don't think it changed all that much in redistricting.) Comparing 2004 and 2008, both presidential years, the total number of votes cast didn't change a great deal. This leads me to think that it wasn't so much a matter of turning out new voters but changing minds.

          But, assuming the districts have untapped potential and are usually decided by a few thousand votes, trying to find an extra 500-1,000 voters might be worth our time.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:23:08 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  True, but we lost it the next election (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, MichaelNY

            Looking at election night results, we could target Kemp Hannon in the 6th. Hopefully he retires soon. Jack Martins should have been targeted more this year. Craig Johnson had the seat. We got 48% and our candidate seemed kind of random.

            M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

            by slacks on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:47:38 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm just saying that, unless these (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              districts are so absurdly Republican, more so than meets the eye, we should look into challenging the incumbents. We might lose them in the next cycle, as we did with Foley but depending on the timing, we might be able to hold on. And even if we only hold them for one term, perhaps we can accomplish a lot in the mean time.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:25:53 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Rockland County is pretty Democratic locally (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera

          Though I don't know how Carlucci's district looks. Savino would probably be a better candidate in NY-13 against Murphy, as she could do well on Staten Island.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:53:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  NY-11 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            and how do you figure? she's pretty liberal and has only had to run in the bluest parts.

            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 01:17:37 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  She's pretty liberal (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera, MichaelNY

              but also decidedly blue collar, and due to her membership in the IDC among other things, has a reputation as a reformer and someone who isn't a partisan Democrat. She's had pretty good working relations with various Republicans, including her Staten Island counterpart  Andrew Lanza. It was either MichaelNY or another local Democrat too, who, a while back, praised her overall political skills and affability.

              NY-11 is a pretty marginal district, it was also one of the few that flipped from McCain to Obama in 2012, though part of that was due to the hurricane. Murphy won very unimpressively against a decidedly weak opponent who ran a pretty tepid campaign, and is continuing to have ethics problems. Savino is essentially the best Democratic candidate in the district, and is both well-connected enough, and far enough removed from the mess that the leadership of the Democratic Conference in the State Senate is, to not be tarred by association.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 07:29:18 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think she's probably too liberal to win that (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera

                Congressional district, and I think by far the main reason Obama won that district is that Hurricane Sandy slammed the heavily Republican South Shore of Staten Island to Kingdome Come. All that said, if she wants to run for Congress, it's definitely worth a shot, and personalities have often trumped ideology in elections, as we all know.

                Also, I wasn't the one who praised her overall political skills and affability, because I don't know her that well. Perhaps it was Taget.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 12:01:50 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Ugh (14+ / 0-)

      Klein does realize that he's a large part of the cause of the dysfunction, right?

      New Yorkers overwhelming want Democrats in control of state government.

      •  You wonder how their constituents feel (6+ / 0-)

        about this. When I vote for Democrats for the legislature, it is because I want Democratic control. I don't want my capitol-critter to caucus with Republicans, and give them control.

        Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

        by WisJohn on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 07:33:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Also, coalition govermnent? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GoUBears, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        It's not a time of war in a national legislature and there are only two political parties with any representation in the legislature.

        I don't think "coalition government" actually means what he wants it to mean.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 07:33:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  How, exactly, are IDCers considered progressive? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Are they just sanctimoniously bipartisan like Cuomo, and promise progressive outcomes from every piece of legislation they can get cosponsors for?

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 07:42:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  They are really progressive (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        Klein is the sponsor of the minimum wage increase in the senate. They all voted for marriage equality without being prodded. They all support marijuana reform.

        They are a little are fiscally conservative though. They all supported the property tax cap. That being said the cap is really popular in their districts.

        M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

        by slacks on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:55:03 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Neither (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        They're opportunists, they don't have any real ideology. They stand for whatever gets Jeff Klein closed to being majority leader.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:01:48 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I figure at this point Cuomo has to be behind this (7+ / 0-)

      Democrats win the senate when he's done everything in his power to prevent it up until this point.  Then a handful of Democrats just elected as Democrats decide they want to be Republicans immediately after the election.   Congratulations Cuomo, not sure how you did it, but good job asshole.  

    •  How much do you want to wager... (6+ / 0-)

      That Gov. Cuomo has been quietly pushing the IDC toward a coalition with the Republicans?

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:49:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Little to do with Cuomo (4+ / 0-)

        This is all about Klein. He and John Sampson (the Democratic leader) don't get along. If we wanted the IDC back, we should have replaced him.

        Klein formed the IDC when he knew he would not be moving up the political ladder in the state senate. Under this coalition, he is basically majority leader.

        M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

        by slacks on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:59:00 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  This has potential to hurt him in 2016 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        If this happened in December 2014 instead of 2012, and he ran for President, it would dog him all through 2015 at least, having to explain to caucus and primary voters why he wouldn't intervene on this, what his role was.

        The only thing he has going for him is time, since voters have short memories.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:34:21 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  What if he doesn't have anything to do with it? (0+ / 0-)

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:26:38 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  He probably doesn't, but that's still a problem (9+ / 0-)

            It's very easy to see how Democratic caucusgoers and primary voters across the states would view Cuomo as best as a weakling for failing to intervene and stop it.  It conveys "weak leader," a very bad thing for a Presidential candidate.  To say he doesn't have anything to do with it only aggravates that perception, it doesn't really matter if that argument has merit.

            Again, the one thing Cuomo has going for him in this is time, since this likely won't be a live issue in 2015.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:35:14 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Good response. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:36:33 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I think being above (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, tietack, MichaelNY

              the fray doesn't look weak. He will only look weak if he doesn't get his agenda passed. If he gets a minimum wage increase and marijuana reform through this legislature, I would say he looks really strong. Progressive results will diminish criticism. Also I don't think voters care about the insider baseball stuff. It will hurt him with party insiders though.

              M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

              by slacks on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:37:51 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think that's a smart comment (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                slacks, BeloitDem, tietack, MichaelNY

                Yup, if he gets his legislative agenda accomplished, it doesn't matter.

                But again, if this were December 2014 instead of December 2012, it would matter and hurt him.  He'd spend 2015 sweating getting his agenda through, because failing to do so would amplify the state Senate control fiasco.

                Your response basically speaks to my point about time being on his side:  too many events will intervene for this particular story to matter much if at all.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:41:10 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Yup, imagine what Cuomo would do w/ the US Senate (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

              if he took office in 2017.... (danged, I still have to eat dinner...)

              I hope; therefore, I can live.

              by tietack on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:51:10 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Of course they are (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Skelos drew them all safe seats in the st. senate gerrymander, sacrificing at least one more Republican seat, presumably in return for their support if it came to this.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:03:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Would Dems supporting Klein and the IDC (5+ / 0-)

      be worse than Klein and the IDC supporting the GOP?  What I'm asking is, if Klein and his buddies are determined to be the power brokers, would we be better off trying to "outbid" the GOP for their support?  Or would those concessions literally be worse than having the GOP in control again?

      Because I'm really not looking forward to another session of GOP control.  I think we will find them much less agreeable than last time.  Of their four moderates who supported marriage equality, only one survived this election (Grisanti).  Like Republicans elsewhere in the country, the NY GOP is only becoming more and more uniformly conservative, and New York would be ill served to have them in control again.

      •  Better off without them (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, MichaelNY

        The difference between having Klein and Skelos in control would be pretty minimal I think, but Klein wouldn't have the control over Democrats that Skelos does over Republicans... a hypothetical Klein-Dem coalition would be really chaotic before anything else. I think it's better to bide our time a little while longer until we can have a purely Democratic majority (at least when the alternative is the IDC.)

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:35:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think Klein wants (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, ArkDem14, MichaelNY, bumiputera

        to run a Democratic Caucus with only a 1 vote majority. It would be impossible to govern that. 1 Democrat always is upset about something. I actually think he made the right move for himself.

        One of his first initiatives will be passing a minimum wage increase. Unless the Democrats want to prevent a minimum wage increase they support, he will be able to pass it with most of the Democrats, and a handful of Republicans. I don't think that is electorally smart for Democrats to oppose the progressive legislation that will come from a Klein-GOP coalition.

        If there is a majority of "Democratic" votes on an issue, Republicans will actually have to negotiate in good faith, because Klein could break the coalition any time. Klein will always have an advantage when negotiating with Republicans.

        M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

        by slacks on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:22:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I suppose a GOP/IDC majority (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, slacks, MichaelNY

          is in fact better than a pure GOP majority.  We probably will see some decent legislation.  It's just upsetting that Democrats can't run a chamber even when they have more elected members than Republicans.  The NY GOP has had extremely narrow majorities before and has seemed fairly cohesive despite it.

  •  VA-Gov: Tom Periello not ruling it out. (12+ / 0-)

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 07:36:30 AM PST

  •  WI-Sup (5+ / 0-)

    Don Pridemore, a Republican state assemblyman, is exploring a run for Wisconsin Superintendent of Public Instruction.

    Pridemore is known best for co-sponsoring legislation blaming single parents for child abuse, so he is a right-wing nutcase.

    Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 07:38:46 AM PST

    •  Good thing (4+ / 0-)

      That seat is history for us if he ever decides to leave.

      •  Can he hold on in a midterm though? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        All it takes in that district is a slight dip in youth & minority turnout and he's gone. A statewide race isn't any tougher as far as the base vote. I hope he reconsiders GA-Sen if Chambliss picks up a credible challenger and looks headed for a Lugaring.

        (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

        by TrueBlueDem on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 08:53:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  probably (6+ / 0-)

          He has a 7 point cushion to work with, and among the returning voters he should do better in the part of the district that was new to him in 2012.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:27:37 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  What about Barrow taking on Isakson in 2016? (0+ / 0-)

            We'd be able to get a better handle on running an aggressive statewide campaign without running a candidate that can almost certainly hold down a seat for us. In the mean time, we could work on finding a replacement that would have a shot at holding Barrow's seat.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:50:58 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Isakson (4+ / 0-)

              He's a mainstream Republican and I wouldn't expect to him to lose the general, even to Barrow. If he gets a serious primary challenge, that would be a similar situation to this year except that you would have presidential turnout instead of midterm turnout. GA is trending blue very slowly due to demographic creep but it's still highly polarized and probably won't be in play at the presidential level in 2016.

              SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:04:06 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Isakson is likely to retire (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Particularly if he is still in the minority come 2016.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:57:15 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  I don't doubt that Isakson, should be run again, (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                would be heavily favored, but that doesn't mean he should get a pass. It's obviously below a bunch of other states, but it's worth looking into, particularly if we see a good result in 2014.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:23:20 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  If anyone can hang on in a midterm . . . (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, MichaelNY

          . . . it's Barrow. Not saying he definitely will; just saying he's the only one with a chance of keeping that seat!

          29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "We need less of that War on Women, and more of that Warren woman!"-- writer Paul Myers.

          by The Caped Composer on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:12:37 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  He won't have new voters to deal with (3+ / 0-)

          and he'll spend the next two years doing favors for influential constituents, sponsoring district-tailored legislation (e.g. funding research on preventing peach diseases), and maintaining a voting record that is inoffensive to most of his constituents (though still to the left of his district). Basically, he'll try to pad his incumbent advantage.

          Note that this won't work for statewide races. Swing voters outside his district won't be as familiar with him, and might not see him as representing them. Post-modern suburbanites, for example, might not see the Barrow-Kingston Save Our Peaches Act as a positive due to its (albeit modest) spending increases. So even though his district is redder than Georgia as a whole, it might be an easier win for him.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

          by fearlessfred14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:11:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Depends on whether the Republicans get a better (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp, MichaelNY

          candidate than Lee Anderson. He apparently refused to debate Barrow, which is a real WTF thing for a challenger to do.

    •  So who is thinking about it for the Dems? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, bjssp, MichaelNY

      Clearly there is going to be an ugly Republican primary that will probably result in the nomination of an extremist. Democrats need to have a credible candidate in place to take advantage of the situation. While they don't need to start running today, it also can't wait until the spring of 14 to lay the groundwork.

      My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

      by terjeanderson on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 08:02:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  ... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        terjeanderson, MichaelNY

        I'm not sure of the process involved when people aren't knocking each other over in order to run, but I'd like to see a list of candidates in all races, even those as marginal as that in Tennessee or Alabama, sooner rather than later. Georgia looks legitimately possible if we get a few breaks (and perhaps even if we don't), but perhaps can at least perform credibly if we try to prepare.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 08:10:03 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Probably? (0+ / 0-)

        Nah, I think it's still more probable than not that Chambliss would win a primary. But possible? You bet your life!

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:24:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Damn (0+ / 0-)

      That takes our best option off the table.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:51:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  just make Jim Marshall do it (9+ / 0-)

      if someone gets Saxby, then Marshall will have some connections to actually do a campaign. If Saxby goes to the general, Marshall has experience at losing to Saxby, and Marshall represented multiple versions of one district too.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:49:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Marshall (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, MichaelNY

        He'd be an interesting choice, though he had a close working relationship with Chambliss while they were both in congress.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:18:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Legitimately scared of Cuccinelli (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I don't live in Virginia but I'm damn close.  McAuliffe probably has the edge due to not being totally off the deep end but who knows what can happen in an off-year electorate?

    •  I don't have a lot of faith in McAuliffe (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, LordMike, WisJohn, jncca, MichaelNY

      where as Cuc has won statewide already. I am hoping that Democrats can win this, but if we lose, it would basically be status quo in terms of current statewide governance.

      •  Are the state legislative districts (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000

        that horrible for us?

        If so, what size win might we need to have to win both chambers outright or at least make considerable progress in the Assembly?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:13:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  in the assembly, we'd need a massive, massive wave (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp, MichaelNY

          In the senate, we are able to have a very narrow majority if we can keep some of the old dixiecrats in the western part of the state from retiring.

        •  Only the Virginia state House is up (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp, lordpet8, MichaelNY

          and I think (though I'd like to be proven wrong) that it's probably unwinnable for Dems, because of gerrymandering and that they're so far back.  Part of this is because they dropped the ball in many winnable districts last time, allowing far too many potentially vulnerable Republicans to skate in.  Considerable progress is possible, though, especially with a decisive gubernatorial win.

          The Senate isn't up until 2015, unless special elections are needed.  However, with it tied 20-20, the Lt. Gov. race could be especially important.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:30:47 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes only the House is up, and it's unwinnable (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, OGGoldy, MichaelNY

            OGGoldy is wrong in that it's even worse for us than he said above, even a massive wave won't deliver the House to us.  The gerrymandering is that bad.  We'd need a big wave just to get into the low 40s (out of 100 seats).  We're down to 31 seats now.

            The state Senate is staggered against the statewide races, so it's not up again until 2015.  All state Senate seats are up at the same time.  And House seats are up every 2 years, so they, too, are up in 2015, as well as next year.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:40:56 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I saw on NLS' blog that (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bjssp, Englishlefty, MichaelNY

              there are number of GOP-held HD's where Kaine and Obama won.  One that has Va Tech (HD-12) and Bob Marshall's HD-13, for one (the latter has been made more Dem).  Also, there's HD-2, where Obama and Kaine got almost 60% of the 2-party vote.  Also, HD-50 and HD-51.

              Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

              by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:36:19 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  NBC's First Read (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, terjeanderson

          says that a Cuccinelli-McAuliffe race is a potential race to the bottom, in that each may be running against the only opponent they can beat.  (I think that's underselling McAuliffe a bit, but if nominated we'll see.)

          While I don't have a vote in the matter or have to live under the result, I do not look forward to the endless volley of TV ads aimed at Northern Virginia voters that will also hit many in DC and MD; Kaine-Allen was plenty.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:34:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  McAuliffe will run a very good campaign (6+ / 0-)

        He will raise gobs of money and have a strong organization.  His campaign mechanics should be excellent.

        His problem is his public image, which will require great messaging to define himself.

        And Cuccinelli isn't universally loathed, he's largely unknown to swing voters and we can't just assume his negatives are self-driving.  McAuliffe and state Dems have to do the actual work fo defining him.  The state party organization is weak, so really it's just McAuliffe who has to do the dirty work.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:43:06 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Gov: John Doe probe still open (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, terjeanderson, MichaelNY

    ...the judge overseeing the investigation into former aides of then-Milwaukee County Executive (now-Wisconsin Governor) Scott Walker has confirmed that.

    Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 08:12:00 AM PST

    •  Truly wondering what the endgame is here... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, fearlessfred14, MichaelNY

      N/t

      •  I'm wondering what the end game is myself (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, dc1000, itskevin, JBraden, MichaelNY

        Scott Walker has a criminal defense fund, has NOT been granted immunity, and has NOT been cleared in the John Doe probe. Could the end game be an indictment of Walker on corruption charges? We don't know at this time.

        Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:10:23 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I have no doubt they at least considering... (10+ / 0-)

          bringing charges against Walker, but the question is, are they confident enough with what they have to do it, given the storm that will inevitably happen if a Democratic DA's office brings charges against a Republican governor who just survived a recall.

          I know a lot of people here vouch for the Milwaukee DA's integrity, and I have no doubt they are telling the truth. But there's no way that this is going to smack political to a lot of people. The case would need to be airtight. That's why I have my doubts it will ever happen.

          •  This seems pretty relevant to the discussion (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            This is from the Journal-Sentinel yesterday. The Rindfleisch mentioned in the article is Kelly Rindfleisch, a former Walker aide who pleaded guilty to misusing country resources in an unsuccessful effort to help a GOP candidate for Lt. Governor. Wink is Darlene Wink, another recently convicted aide of Walkers.

            Franklyn Gimbel, a longtime criminal defense attorney who represents Rindfleisch, said he had no specific knowledge about the status of the John Doe investigation but believed it had been finished for some time.

            "If they thought they had a winnable case against Walker, that case would have been brought," Gimbel said of prosecutors.

            Wink's attorney, Peter Wolff, said prosecutors had told him that they were fairly confident that Wink would be able to resolve her case at her sentencing hearing, which is scheduled for Jan. 10. The hearing was originally scheduled for last week but was delayed.

            Wolff said he had no special knowledge about the John Doe but said he didn't expect Wink to need to testify against anyone else if Russell follows through with the plea deal. If Russell does plead guilty Thursday, Wolff said he might seek to move up Wink's sentencing hearing so her case can be finished.

            "It does appear that we're almost concluded," Wolff said of the John Doe.

            My gut feeling is to agree with Rindfleisch's lawyer. If they could have indicted Walker on something, they probably would have by now. But who knows.
            •  Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel is pro-Walker (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              ...and rabidly pro-Walker at that. It was the day after Gimbel and Wolf said that they thought the John Doe probe was over that a judge confirmed that the John Doe probe was, in fact, still open. The MJS, due to its pro-Walker bias, is going to be very quick to publish anything that suggests that the John Doe probe is over, when, in fact, it isn't.

              Remember that the investigation into Rod Blagojevich lasted four years before Blago was arrested on corruption charges, and the corruption around Scott Walker is even more complex than the corruption around Rod Blagojevich.

              Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

              by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 02:39:08 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  GA-Sen: Erickson considering primary challenge (7+ / 0-)

    Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 08:28:33 AM PST

  •  Romney's chief strategist Stuart Stevens (5+ / 0-)

    writes an op-ed in the WaPo. Seems to be a combination of "No, really! We did okay!" and "The GOP shouldnt change."

    I think there is a fair discussion to have about how much the GOP should change and how significant the Dem win was. But there is a lot of denial in that op-ed by Stevens. My guess is he, Eric Ferhnstrom and other Romney people might have trouble finding work with another campaign.

    •  Of course, I forgot the link (0+ / 0-)

      link.

    •  Did Romney do all that badly? (0+ / 0-)

      I mean, nobody sensible gave him a serious chance in PA, MI, or WI, but he didn't do that terribly in OH, FL, VA, or CO. He won NC, of course.

      Or should we be judging some states with the mindset that the margin is always close and therefore a 3-point win in Florida is like an 11-point win in Michigan, as I've sometimes indicated?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:42:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, my view is that (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, Marcus Graly, MichaelNY

        the general consensus is that this was a very winnable race for Romney.

        I agree with Stevens view that  51-47 or so isnt some landslide loss that dooms the GOP forever. Dems should be careful not get into that mindset.

        But at the same time, I think he is painting an overly optimistic picture(which I guess is to be expected given his role in the Romney campaign).

        Obama winning 51-47, 332 EV and all but one swing state is bad news for the GOP and I dont think it helps having Stevens sugarcoat that.

        •  I don't know if there's one particularly (0+ / 0-)

          good way to look at it. Demographics aside, which are helpful but far from a guarantee, you're right that it wasn't some sort of doomsday loss. Maybe it was never all that winnable, but Romney didn't get beat by absurd margins in a lot of these states. For all the talk of Ohio being lost, he came pretty close. The same can be said in Florida and Virginia.

          Or perhaps OFA didn't do as well as it could have. There's no hard and fast way to be sure of that, of course, but while we won, it wasn't by a considerable margin in a lot of states.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:28:45 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Yes he did all that badly (11+ / 0-)

        Look again at those states.  Many were deemed tight as a tick, and yet Obama won almost all comfortably.  Iowa and Colorado and Virginia in particular were supposed to be tight, but Obama won Iowa by 6, Colorado by 6, and Virginia by 4...and Virginia supposedly leaned Romney according to some pundits!  I remember when the last NBC/Marist poll had Obama up 50-44, one prominent political journalist on my Twitter feed insisted that no one in Iowa on either side thought it was a 6-point race......somehow I suspect OFA might not have concurred.

        Florida was supposed to lean Romney, and I remember on Daily Rundown a day or two before the election, Chuck Todd with a few journalists and pundits going around the table asking them who they thought would win each battleground, he asked if anyone thought Obama would win Florida and they all said no.

        A lot of this was political journlalists and conservative commentators buying the GOP snow job.  Of course, Romney, his campaign team, and GOP allies all believed their own snow job!

        But yes Romney did that badly.  Not only did Obama win everything but NC, but the margins were far better for Obama than the CW claimed.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:51:33 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I remember the margin in Virginia (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV

          being tighter. I guess this is one more reason why I shouldn't trust my memory.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:29:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Votes are counted long after election day (4+ / 0-)

            That's the problem, all these margins changes, sometimes dramatically, after people have stopped paying attention.

            In Virginia there were a lot of absentees and some provisionals to count that weren't tallied for quite awhile after the 6th.  The Fairfax County absentees alone totaled 86K, and Obama's margin was 20K among those alone in a state he ended up winning by 150K.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:33:19 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Romney did terrible; the election was not close (5+ / 0-)

        It wasn't close in the electoral college nor the popular vote... and there was no point where he was in fact close in the electoral college.

        Romney had precisely two good campaign moments:

        1) picking Ryan before the conventions.  He went from being 7-9 points behind to getting a middling bounce into the convention, getting some skeptical wingers on board, and moving WI from Michigan territory to Minnesota territory.

        2) having a good first debate while Obama blew chunks.

        That's it.  Eleven months and the guy has two good campaign days.  Pathetic.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:44:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know if I'd even agree with you on 1). (6+ / 0-)

          I don't think Ryan brought him nearly the bounce he was hoping, although you're right about bringing the wingers on board.

          But yeah, you're right about 2). That was honestly the only unarguably good moment Romney had after wrapping up the nomination.

        •  2008 was a real aberration in WI (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Yes, we're a left-leaning state, but in 2000 and 2004 it was within a percentage point. There was no way we were gonna win by 14 points again here.

          •  MI was 9.5% (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            But also, a Dem like Warner/Clinton/Hickenlooper/ would beat a Rep like Gingrich/Santorum/DeMint by 14 points, or more.

            The history for the past 40 years, except for Tommy, is close Republican wins, close Dem wins, and some Dem blowouts.  That's still the nature of the state.  A national extremist would be slaughtered in WI.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:55:02 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Obama's 2008 Margin (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, MichaelNY

              was the biggest Democratic margin for president since 1964.

              And Walker won by 7 points both times. We're a pretty swingy state, but 14 points is a lot even for us.

              I actually think this year's results are a pretty good, if slightly Dem-leaning benchmark for politics in the state.

              •  Sure it's a lot and unlikely (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                but your statement was too Shermanesque.  

                If the Republicans nominated a "mainstream wingnut" like DeMint, and the Dems a very solid candidate, it is a logical assumption that the Dem would outperform Obama/Mccain numbers.

                While it seems sensible to assume the GOP won't nominate an extremist like Santorum, and thus a margin in the 5-10 range is the most likely for 2016, the certainly is a significant chance an extremist could possibly be nominated.  In that case, 14 could be low... especially if the economy greatly improves, etc.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:29:39 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  ... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  BeloitDem, MichaelNY

                  How was his statement Sherman-esque???

                  A Sherman statement is when someone specifically says they will not run for President (although it is also co-opted for lower offices as well).

                  22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                  by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:41:22 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

        •  In hindsight, I think Debate #1 for Romney (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          was simply the RNC convention speech that he should have made, solidifying the R base --without-- eating into solid Obama voters.

          I hope; therefore, I can live.

          by tietack on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:58:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  here's my analysis of why Romney lost (6+ / 0-)

      20%: Romney being a bad candidate (not releasing taxes, 47%, him generally being a dick)

      20%: Romney running a bad campaign (not running positive ads, not being more specific about policy, etc.) and Obama running a good one (defining Romney early, turnout operation)

      30%: Republicans' extreme positions on social issues, immigration, race, etc. (encompasses Akin/Mourdock but also policy positions they've taken)

      30%: Republicans' extreme positions on economic issues (caring only about rich having low taxes, wanting to gut popular programs)

      A better GOP candidate running a better campaign would help them, but they've got to deal with their extremism if they want to win the White House again anytime soon.

    •  In short (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

      "How awesome was my guy at the first debate!"

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:03:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  TPM says he's essentially bragging for (0+ / 0-)

      winning the group of people that count or something:
      http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:27:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Odd factoid (11+ / 0-)

    Due to AZ renumbering districts massively every 10 years, 5 of the 11 Senators and Representatives being sworn in In January have represented AZ-01. (McCain, Flake, Kirkpatrick, Salmon, and Gosar) That has to be a record...

    Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

    by R30A on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:39:28 AM PST

    •  The Rhodes/McCain/Coppersmith/Salmon AZ-01 (6+ / 0-)

      has quite a bit of overlap with the current AZ-09, as far as I can tell.  (Given the population growth, AZ-09 might be a strict subset of it.)  Quite an interesting collection of Representatives that area's seen.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:09:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  old AZ1 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt, MichaelNY, R30A

        The old AZ1 from the 1990s was basically the current AZ5 and AZ9, but the northernmost part of AZ9 was in John Shadegg's district (now mostly in AZ6, then numbered AZ4). The east valley has had quite a bit of growth. My first apartment at 20th and Camelback was in AZ4, but my later apartment at 24th and Highland was in AZ1.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:19:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Perriello >>>>>> McAuliffe (8+ / 0-)

    Perriello may be a netroots hero, but he's also to McAuliffe's right, making him a better fit for Virginia. He's more focused and much more "everyman" than McAuliffe. He would just be a much better candidate.

    Besides, as much as I enjoyed having President Clinton stump for President Obama this year and as much as I like the work Secy. Clinton has done at the State Department, I really don't care for a lot of the Clintonistas. They brought some really strange, unlikable people into their orbit for some reason.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:47:35 AM PST

    •  I don't have anything against McAuliffe, but (7+ / 0-)

      the way Perriello conducted himself in 2010 makes him seem like someone that everyone could get behind. He wasn't a party hack but neither was he a pain in the ass like Lieberman. And when it came to campaigning, if I recall correctly, he did it like it was his last chance to ever hold elected office.

      His election would be far from guaranteed, but if he were to lose, it wouldn't be because of some dumb error or because he Tommy Thompsoned his way through the race.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:54:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's a very good candidate (4+ / 0-)

        Meanwhile McAuliffe lost the only race he ever ran to Creigh Deeds

        NY-7 in real life, @BobbyBigWheel on Twitter

        by Bobby Big Wheel on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:57:26 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  In fairness though (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, Englishlefty

          McAuliffe and Brian Moran pummeled each other allowing Deeds to slide through. Primary Creigh Deeds was an excellent candidate who could toe to toe with McDonnell. Unfortunately we instead got general election Deeds who took No.VA for granted then went overboard on the negative advertising. I heard from Deeds volunteers that it was just ugly for them when they went canvassing.

          I'd be all for Perriello IF he can show he can raise the funds needed because Cooch is going to probably Allen West like in his ability to get funds from every nut job imaginable. As for TMac, if he can show that his ability to raise money can actually translate to being a fighting Dem...for once then I'd be happier as well.

          Also don't surprised if Clinton goes out stumping for MacAulliffe.

    •  A few positives for McAuliffe (0+ / 0-)

      Is he can raise a ton of money and he has a lot of political ties.

      I'm kinda going wait and see on who could be better.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:34:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  That is not remotely true (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, Paleo, ArkDem14, dem4evr

      Perriello is not to McAuliffe's right, no one here thinks that.  On the contrary there are plenty who identify McAuliffe with the old Clinton/DLC crowd which is one reason (not the only one) some liberals are leery of him.  Perriello is nominally anti-choice, but in a limited and quiet way not unlike Harry Reid or Bob Casey, Jr.  And Perriello voted pro-gun in his one term, but any Democrat running statewide has to be pro-gun or at least avoid the topic altogether or get screwed...TMac is does not have any trail of quotes either way on gun control, so there's no saying he's to Perriello's left.

      And the notion that Perriello would necessarily be a better candidate than TMac is dubious.  Running statewide is hard, Perriello might or might not be up to the challenge, and he's unlikely to be able to raise the kind of money TMac will surely raise.  There are no contribution limits in Virginia, so Perriello's potential national low-dollar support is no match for TMac's rich friends who can write massive checks.

      The truth is Perriello has perhaps as many liabilities as TMac, but they are just very different ones.

      If that was the primary, I'd be undecided, perhaps leaning toward TMac unless Perriello ran a particularly strong primary campaign and really impressed.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:57:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  How can you equate (5+ / 0-)

        the hypothetical possibility that Perriello could be a bad candidate, with the reality that McAuliffe ran a bad campaign last time?

        None of your negatives can actually be proven to exist, they're just hypothetical problems you've suggested could exist (appeal might not translate statewide, maybe his donor base won't be big enough) ... and then you're equating that with actual, known negatives McAuliffe demonstrated during his '09 campaign. I don't understand that at all.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:24:14 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  As you just said... (0+ / 0-)

        Perriello is anti-choice and pro-gun. McAuliffe didn't run as a centrist in his last campaign, and the DNC under his tenure moved markedly to the left. I'm not saying that was a bad thing -- I'm just saying.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:10:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Again, your notions are wrong (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wu ming

          McAuliffe did, in fact, run as a centrist last time.  His entire campaign was about his experience in business and knowing how to bring jobs to Virginia, it was entirely a play for the anti-tax suburban white voters who dominate state elections here.  TMac didn't talk about anything else unless he had to, and no one remembers anything else he might've said.

          And the notion the DNC "moved left" under him is a strange fiction, I've never heard anyone say that and my own observation of the DNC then was it wasn't remotely true.  McAuliffe in 2003-04 wouldn't even take a firm stand against the Iraq War, since we had candidates who favored the war or were struggling to straddle the line after having voted for it.

          On Perriello, again no one here views him as "to the right" of anyone at all, TMac or otherwise.  He's viewed as a liberal darling in spite of his abortion and guns positions.  The abortion issue only hurts him because it can only cost suburban votes without helping in the rurals where they won't vote for him over Cooch no matter what.  And on guns, there's no indication TMac is to Perriello's left in the first place.

          Your perceptions of the candidates do not fit the reality here...they certainly don't fit anyone's perceptions among Virginia Democrats.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:36:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  "nominally anti-choice" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, VClib

        But it matters more in a governor's mansion than in the Senate.

        •  Not really (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wu ming, ArkDem14

          It depends what you intend to do with it.

          Perriello would never encourage or sign the kinds of bills McDonnell wants.  He knows his party won't stand for it.  Vaginal ultrasounds would be a non-starter.

          Voters are pretty smart, of all stripes they realize a Democrat is never going to be an anti-choice crusader in 21st century America.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:38:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  One entry at Blue Virginia suggests "mixed choice" (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          http://bluevirginia.us/...

          According to NARAL Pro-Choice America, "Rep. Tom Perriello (D) is mixed-choice," with a "2009 Congressional Record on Choice" score of 50. Perriello's Republican replacement in Congress, Robert Hurt, is listed as "anti-choice" and "Endorsed by the National Right to Life PAC."
          The link embedded on the site no longer works, so I can't confirm.

          I hope; therefore, I can live.

          by tietack on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 07:05:10 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  He voted for the Stupak Amendment (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        So he's more than merely "nominally" anti-choice.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:44:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  To his right? (0+ / 0-)

      Where do you get that notion?

      Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

      by Paleo on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:38:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nevada as the big disappointment (6+ / 0-)

    I was perusing David Jarman's excellent summation of the final presidential results the other day, and I was thinking that Nevada was probably the biggest disappointment on election day overall. Obama won, but he underperformed how I thought he'd do, and of course Berkley was the reverse Rick Berg, someone who most people around here expected to win but lost because she was a weak candidate. Joe Heck won reelection.

    Given the early registration advantage, Harry Reid's spectacular victory in 2010, and some of the other things we were hearing, did anybody else find the Nevada results particularly disappointing?

    •  i'm disappointed that we didn't win the senate (5+ / 0-)

      seat considering that NV is a blue state now. But going into election day, I wasn't surprised that Berkeley lost given that even Mellman didn't have her up.

      Overall, I think Obama did pretty well, considering how bad the NV economy is. He over-performed his final polls, but I was expecting him to. Mellman had him up ~6, which is close to the final margin.

      •  I don't see any reason to think that the NV (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        economy hurt Obama.  After all, in general, "Obama Did Worse In Places With Stronger Labor Market Recoveries".  Yglesias links to here, where the author makes these charts:

        Where Obama’s Margin Increased the Most               
        #    U.S. Metro    Change in Obama’s margin, 2012 vs 2008    Obama’s margin vs Romney, 2012    Obama’s margin vs McCain, 2008
        1    Miami, FL    7.6    23.7    16.1
        2    New Orleans, LA    6.1    -0.1    -6.2
        3    New York, NY-NJ    2.4    48.3    45.9
        4    Baton Rouge, LA    1.8    -12.4    -14.2
        5    Edison-New Brunswick, NJ    1.5    3.1    1.6
        6    Syracuse, NY    1.5    16.9    15.4
        7    San Jose, CA    1    41.3    40.4
        8    Albany, NY    0.9    15.5    14.6
        9    Fort Lauderdale, FL    0.2    34.9    34.7
        10    Columbus, OH    0.2    6.1    5.9

        [...]

        Where Obama’s Margin Decreased the Most               
        #    U.S. Metro    Change in Obama’s margin, 2012 vs 2008    Obama’s margin vs Romney, 2012    Obama’s margin vs McCain, 2008
        1    Salt Lake City, UT    -19.5    -20.1    -0.6
        2    Indianapolis, IN    -10.5    -8    2.5
        3    Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI    -10.3    9    19.3
        4    St. Louis, MO-IL    -9.4    6.6    16
        5    Grand Rapids, MI    -8.5    -9.6    -1.1
        6    Kansas City, MO-KS    -8.3    -3.1    5.2
        7    Omaha, NE-IA    -8.3    -10.9    -2.6
        8    Austin, TX    -7    7.1    14.1
        9    Ventura County, CA    -6.9    5.3    12.2
        10    Allentown, PA-NJ    -6.7    2.6    9.3

        And adds:
        What about jobs? As with the housing market, the more the local labor market improved during Obama’s term, the bigger the increase in the Republican candidate’s share and the bigger the decline in Obama’s share. The scatterplot shows that in metros where the local unemployment rate fell most (on the left side of the graph), Obama’s margin dropped more from 2008 to 2012:

        This relationship is fairly strong (correlation=0.35) and statistically significant.

        As the author points out, this might have something to do with racial demographics, and/or Hurricane Sandy.  I'd add campaign effects, with the most significant campaign effect, as usual, being the difference between showing up or not.  Indianapolis and the Missouri metro areas probably saw a lot more campaign activity in 2008 than in 2012.  (Is that true, for Missouri?)  Although David Jarman said the Omaha area was still plenty contested this time.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:31:57 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think most expected Berkley to win (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I didn't get that sense on DKE, if I'm mistaken than people here were simply not realistic.

      I always dismissed the ethics nonsense against her, but there was no question in the final weeks the polling was clearly against her, even if not by much, and she was an underdog.  It didn't feel to be like a Reid-Angle situation where she had some kind of hidden vote that was missed.  One thing that always made me dismiss her chances were that whenever a private Mellman poll leaked, it always had low major party numbers, in the low 40s to high 30s, which I didn't view as good news for Berkley coming from her own pollster.  Ultimately it turns out Mellman's polls stopped leaking because the final 3 weeks or so he saw her fall behind and clearly losing.

      I didn't consider Obama's 6-point win in Nevada underperforming at all.

      Ultimately I don't worry about Nevada because it's becoming more nonwhite with dramatic speed, the electorate itself not just the total population.  Heller might not survive in 2018, the way demographics are moving the state.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:12:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Obama did under-perform in NV (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        markhanna, MichaelNY

        relative to 2008, to a mild extent (about as much as he over-performed in Ohio relative to 2008, at least as of whenever I made the chart):

        I think it's worth looking into why that might have been, although Democrats certainly have much to be happy about in the Silver State.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:22:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  He didn't underperform anyone's expectations (0+ / 0-)

          I never measured his expectations the way you're measuring them now, I looked at polling and his overall political condition and Mitt's condition, and without having my own prediction I was still completely unsurprised by a 6-point win...it was no better or worse than I would've expected.  If it was, say, 8 points, that would've been a little better than I expected.  But 5-to-7 was about where I would've guessed it for Nevada.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:32:03 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  NV (4+ / 0-)

          NV has had the worst economy in the nation for several years. Obama probably won an unusually high number of low-info swing voters in 2008 on protest votes against the economy, and probably lost many or most of these voters in 2012 on the same grounds.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:48:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, I think it's entirely possible (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            that Nevada's 2008 performance was an aberration for one reason or another (even though there doesn't seem to be any "bad economy effect" in general--Obama seems to have done well in some suffering parts of California, although I'd have to look in more detail to be sure).

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:52:08 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  I was hopeful about Berkley (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, BeloitDem, JBraden, MichaelNY

        but knew it would be tough.  Almost all the polls seemed to agree, Berkley was underperforming Obama by 6-8 points.  That was just too much unless Obama was getting close to his 2008 numbers, which he wasn't.

        Honestly I find it encouraging that she only lost by 1% considering how awful her final approval numbers were.  A lot of Republicans seemed to expect Heller to win by high single digits instead.

      •  I was more talking about the people on DKE (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        Who made Senate predictions (including myself, Spiderdem, and some others), but my memory may be wrong. Also, because of a heavy travel schedule in October, I wasn't on here as much as I would have liked, so maybe more people were expressing skepticism than I saw. One thing I do remember was Adtnext seeming pretty confident about Berkeley winning, which skewed my perspective a bit, given that he's on the ground there and was right about Harry Reid. (that is not in anyway to say that Adtnext was deluded in his posts, only that he got a bit overconfident as a result of the Reid win in 2010)

        •  Atdnext cheerleads (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          CF of Aus, bumiputera

          He also assured us that Dina Titus would win in 2010. It's only after the election is over that we get truly sober analysis from him. I realize these comments are personal, but I submit that they're accurate, and represent a criticism not of him as a person but of his forthrightness in this forum. I love all the color and real-time feel of his reporting, but I will not again make the mistake of relying on his overly optimistic predictions of Nevada elections, which he will admit after the fact ignored severe shortcomings of some of the candidates that he knew about but declined to publicly shine a light on.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:52:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  could have been worse (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      We could have lost the state senate too. The Republican leader was personally handpicking strong challengers to take back the senate.

      It was amazingly close but we narrowly prevailed in the end.
      http://www.lvrj.com/...

      But yes had Obama done better we would have picked a senate seat, a house, and probably 2-3 more state senate seats.

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:36:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Sure (0+ / 0-)

      I was hoping - and actually expecting - Berkley would win. Next time, I have to follow Ralston more closely.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:46:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ohio dems need your help... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, itskevin, CF of Aus

    There are two automatic recounts going on for the statehouse.  Although we were pummeled at the statehouse level this year, we need one of those seats to flip to us or the GOP will have a supermajority in both chambers allowing them to do all sorts of nasty things.  One of out candidates is only behind by 14 votes, another by less than 100.  

    The Ohio dems are asking for people to help out.  Any contributions are welcome at:

    http://action.ohiodems.org/...

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:15:53 AM PST

  •  Compelling nugget from Politico (9+ / 0-)

    piece on losing freshman Reps.  Bobby Schilling's 14-year-old daughter cheered returns showing him losing, saying: "Yay, I've got my Dad back."  Interesting window into the pressures these folks put on themselves and their families.  Hopefully ex-Rep. Schilling sees the same silver lining, although I am sure he didn't cheer Cheri Bustos on.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:55:00 AM PST

  •  Mega Updates out of Georgia (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, jj32, KingofSpades, dc1000, MichaelNY

    The article contained here provides several updates regarding Georgia races:  

    Rep. John Barrow ("D") will not run for Governor or Senator

    Former presidential and Senatorial (in 2004) candidate Herman Cain says he will not primary Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R)

    Redstate.com's Erick Erickson is, however, considering a primary against Saxby

    Finally, the lead story about the incoming State Rep. returning excess funds is interesting.

    •  Aside from (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skibum59, MichaelNY

      Thubert Baker and Lead Ward Sear and perhaps Cathy Cox, who might our candidates be?

      Has anyone even suggested running, let alone declare their intent to do so? I mean, the election was almost a month ago; what's taking them so long? /snark

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:32:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe Jimmy Carter's grandson (0+ / 0-)
      •  Jim Marshall or Roy Barnes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, MichaelNY

        would be strong candidates.  Also, not sure Barrow would need a Mourdock-style candidate to win as the digest suggested.  He just held an R+9 seat like it was nothing.  Should have a shot to win an R+7 state.  He would need an open seat for sure, but not necessarily a nut bag opponent.  I guess maybe he would in a midterm, but maybe not. Appears to be all academic in any event.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:45:56 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  All this talk about possible Georgia Senate (4+ / 0-)

          Makes me realize that we actually have a none-too-shabby potential candidate bench in the state:

          Jim Marshall
          John Barrow
          Thurbert Baker
          Cathy Cox
          Leah Ward Sears
          Jason Carter
          Roy Barnes
          David Adelman (ambassador to Singapore and former State Senator preceding Jason Carter)
          Mark Taylor (former Lieutenant Governor)
          Michael Thurmond (former Commissioner of Labor, is African American)

          Hell! Even Tommy Irvin with all the goodwill he's built up since he started serving as Ag. Comm. in 1969 (!) until 2011 would be an awesome candidate (though ofcourse he wouldn't being so elderly).

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:02:07 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  "Meh" to "Hell no!" for many of them (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, ArkDem14

            Unless she's moved back, Sears moved to New York when she resigned from the State Supreme Court.

            Taylor ran a Creigh Deeds-style campaign full of pandering to rural whites on social issues, which only served to turn off elements of the Democratic base such as blacks (horrendous black turnout that year) and gays.  That's one primary vote I dearly regret

            Thurmond was seen as phoning it in when he ran for the Senate in 2010.

            Barnes is starting to sound a bit like the Georgia Dems' version of Tony Knowles or Dino Rossi.

            Last time I heard, Cox seems pretty unwilling to do anything else political.  Plus, there are a lot of Democrats mad at her for 1) the touch screen machines and 2) being a little too nice to Sonny Purdue after the 2006 primary, believing it hurt Taylor.

            Marshall was so damn sorry he couldn't even vote for SCHIP and Lily Ledbetter and actively run against Democratic leaders by name.  Let's not even get started on healthcare or cap and trade.  What exactly is he going to run against Saxby on?  I definitely see him being another Mark Taylor: pandering to a part of the state (geographically, politically, and demographically) that will still not vote for him and that is ever decreasing in importance.

            Barrow is less bad than Marshall but my points about the futility of pandering to rednecks remains.

            •  ... (8+ / 0-)

              This is Georgia, what do you expect? We have to give electeds a fair bit of room here or else they'll be thrown out in favor of even worse Republicans...

              Sears moved? That's upsetting.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

              by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:19:49 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  to be fair, SCHIP was pretty non-controversial (6+ / 0-)

                The utility of people like Marshall is more important for stopping Republicans from passing batshit crazy stuff like the Ryan Budget than actually passing Democratic agenda.

              •  People like Barrow and Marshall.... (0+ / 0-)

                ...hurt more than help.  They only serve to muddle Democratic messaging, stand in the way of Democratic proposals, and give bipartisan support to conservative ideas and talking points.  We're far better off without them, and yes, even if that means having a Republican instead, because I'd much rather have the face of misanthropy, war-mongering, and bigotry be a conservative, Republican face and not a bipartisan and thus "moderate" face.

                •  I apologize in advance if this post sounds like (8+ / 0-)

                  I'm talking down to you, but please keep in mind that you are on the Daily Kos Elections sub-site.

                  We don't believe in reverse-Jim DeMintism on DKE. That kind of idealistic/unrealistic purism is more popular in other corners of Daily Kos, where people prefer to concentrate purely on ideology and not on analyzing campaigns and elections, which is what we do here. We know for a fact that any Democrat in Congress is superior in matters of policy to any Republican. Statistics bear that out with supreme clarity. So my gratuitous suggestion to you is, support the candidates whose ideology you most agree with, but please consider refraining from suggesting that we should prefer Republicans for the US Senate from Georgia to Democrats who actually have some chance - albeit a small one - to win that seat.

                  Parenthetically, I will note that many of us on DKE are ideologically quite leftist, but that's beside the point, because politics is the art of the possible, so we concentrate on fostering leftward movement and forestalling rightward movement, and that can be done even more effectively by putting a conservative Democrat in a Republican's seat than by putting a liberal Democrat in a conservative Democrat's seat, where that's even possible (and there are a few places where it may be).

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:08:29 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  On Pandering (7+ / 0-)

              Pandering moves you from, say, 25% of the white vote to 30% of the white vote. That's not inconsequential in a state which is within reach for Democrats if they do just a little bit better among whites and at the same time turn out AAs. Do the air battle for whites, while at the same time do a ground game for the AAs - allowing you to have the best of both worlds.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

              by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:21:21 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  No it doesn't. (0+ / 0-)

                The people that are being pandered to (rural, conservative whites) are not going to vote for us no matter how much you try to appeal to them.  They have realigned and done so completely at virtually all levels of government (not sure about local, but I know it's the case with the federal and stat levels).  Nor will gaining with this make the difference in a state that is already dominated by one metropolitan region (and add in the smaller ones) and getting more so.

                •  Time for another analogy (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Democrats : Southern whites outside the Atlantic states ::
                  Republicans : African Americans

                  For both parties, it is necessary to appeal to the group that opposes them so much

                  In order to gain respect and votes from moderates who make the difference in Presidential elections.

                  I hope; therefore, I can live.

                  by tietack on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 07:36:08 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Beating heads against a brick wall in both cases. (0+ / 0-)

                    That's like saying Democrats need to start making plays for Utah and Idaho.  You incur an opportunity cost in that you spend limited resources (and in Georgia, we're especially limited) in a futile effort to gain the support of a group that has clearly repudiated you and shows no sign of coming back instead of spending resources on more winnable blocs.  

                    In Georgia for Democrats, we need to concentrate on 1) registration and GOTV among minorities, who are an ever increasing percentage of Georgia's population and 2) building support among a group of white voters that we actually have a snowball's change in hell of winning over at some point: suburban whites.  This means transplants and what I call second and third generation surbanites, those who have grown up in the suburbs and are less rural culturally.

                    •  I suggest that it helped the Pres in the 'burbs (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      The party that is perceived as reaching out to the other side, in a more "effective" fashion, wins.

                      I hope; therefore, I can live.

                      by tietack on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 08:23:22 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  I agree that you have to concentrate (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      James Allen, tietack, wwmiv

                      on getting out the vote from the constituencies that form your base, but what you have to face is that in Georgia, the Democratic base is a minority of the voting public. Therefore, the only way a Democratic candidate could win state-wide would be to get good turnout from the base and appeal to a large minority of voters who usually lean Republican. Your method might limit the size of a loss, but it would absolutely guarantee that a win is impossible.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:11:41 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

            •  Touch-screen machines. (0+ / 0-)

              Could you tells us more about that? I'm curious.

              Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

              by WisJohn on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:28:22 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  I honest believe if Erik Erickson actually ran (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, KingTag, MichaelNY

          and won the nomination, a lot of Dems could take him out. But I don't think he will win.

          •  We can only hope (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            It's important to be prepared and not cede any ground in states that stand even the closest chance at being competitive in 2014 at all.

            We need strong candidates in Georgia, South Carolina, Maine, Kentucky, as well as South Dakota and West Virginia (where I no longer count Johnson and Rockefeller as strong and they'll most likely retire anyway).

            Cornyn is rumored at retirement this time around, so it would be worth fielding a strong candidate there as well if we get an immigration reform bill passed - a path to citizenship would be the single quickest and easiest way to boost Hispanic CVAP in the state and, hence, Hispanic percentage in the electorate. If we moved from 25% Hispanic (where we've been recently) to 35% Hispanic because of immigration reform, the state would be just within reach with a strong Hispanic moderate candidate.

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:13:40 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  On Texas (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              (75 percent of 35) plus (95 percent of 10) plus (65 percent of 5) plus (20 percent of 50) is 49.

              The Asian and White numbers are realistic (Asians in Texas are more Republican than nationally because of the ethnic makeup leaning more Vietnamese), whereas the African American numbers might be a bit high but reachable with a strong well-funded campaign. The Hispanic numbers are probably high for Texas, but with a charismatic moderate Hispanic that's totally reachable with a good campaign.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

              by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:17:09 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Cornyn is about to become majority whip (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8, MichaelNY

              Pretty sure he is not retiring. I just Googled Cornyn retirement and didn't get anything making this suggestion.

              •  There was either (0+ / 0-)

                A politico or the fix article /post that listed Cornyn as potential retirement, despite being the new minority whip.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:40:17 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Cornyn is rumored at retirement?? (0+ / 0-)

              He just got the whip position.

            •  If immigration reform is passed (0+ / 0-)

              We shouldn't expect a lot of undocumented aliens to become citizens quickly. I think the proposed legislation going back to the GW Bush days would involve a heavy fine and a 7 years before the newly-documented aliens could attain US citizenship.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:24:28 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  The difference (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Is that Obama is president and Republicans badly need to win over more Hispanics or they're doomed. Whatever immigration reform is passed will be much less onerous.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                by wwmiv on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 12:17:58 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  He won GA-12 because (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          he had a bad opponent and because there are people who are fine voting for him for House, but wouldn't for Senate. Nobody in Northern Georgia and some of the red Atlanta suburbs would vote for a Democrat ever.

          •  Never ever? (0+ / 0-)

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 08:23:59 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Northern Georgia/Red Atlanta Suburbs = (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Never ever.

              Parts of GA-1/GA-12/GA-2/GA-8: For a good Democrat.

              •  Just to be clear, which counties are you (0+ / 0-)

                referring to?

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:48:58 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Not going to list them since there are so many (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  But basically north of Atlanta is no man's land for Democrats. Consider it the Waukesha of Georgia.

                  Way South of Atlanta (like not the surrounding suburbs) will elect good Democrats from time to time.

                  •  I (0+ / 0-)

                    don't mean to see dense. I'm just not sure how far out you'd go when talking about an Atlanta suburb.

                    I assume you mean counties like Bartow, Cherokee, and Forsyth, but do you go as far out as Lumpkin? Wikipedia says it can go up to 28 counties.

                    Briefly scanning the Obama/Romney numbers, it seems like some of them are safe to ignore but some are big enough to try to limit the losses in, a la Hamilton County, Indiana, in 2008. But that's for statewide contests, where every vote counts equally. Judging my the results for some of these congressional districts, I can't argue with the idea that we should set our sights elsewhere.

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:03:13 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

    •  Erick Erickson.... really? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      There can't be too many people that would vote for him.

      20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

      by aggou on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:52:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  More absurdly early 2014 House stuff (5+ / 0-)

    I'm going to be using categories of expected competitiveness.  Rating things as "Lean" or "Likely" is just goofy at this point (well, goofier than what I'm already doing).  Thank you for your comments on a similar post yesterday.  Each list also sorted by expected competitive level in a completely scientific way known only to me.

    Expect to be competitive
    CA-31: Miller
    CO-06: Coffman
    IL-13: Davis
    NV-03: Heck
    CA-10: Denham
    NE-02: Terry
    NY-19: Gibson
    MI-01: Benishek
    VA-02: Rigell

    Might be competitive
    CA-21: Valadao
    FL-02: Southerland
    WI-09: Duffy
    NY-23: Reed
    VA-05: Hurt
    MI-07: Walberg
    FL-10: Webster
    OH-14: Joyce
    FL-16: Buchanan
    MN-02: Kline
    WI-08: Ribble
    MI-11: Bentivolio
    NY-11: Grimm
    MI-03: Amash
    IA-03: Latham
    CA-25: McKeon
    KS-03: Yoder
    MN-06: Bachmann
    NJ-05: Garrett
    MI-06: Upton
    PA-08: Fitzpatrick

    Probably not competitive, but keep an eye on
    CO-03: Tipton
    NJ-03: Runyan
    FL-13: Young
    NC-09: Pittenger
    IA-04: King
    VA-04: Forbes
    PA-06: Gerlach
    IN-02: Walorski
    OH-07: Gibbs
    PA-03: Kelly
    SC-05: Mulvaney
    NY-02: King
    PA-12: Rothfus
    WA-03: Herrera
    GA-01: Kingston

    •  Democrats? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      What about a Democratic version of this?

      Also, CO-3 should be in the "might be competitive" list.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:04:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Dem version just posted below (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        As for CO-03, honestly I was pretty disappointed in Pace's 10 point loss.  He seemed like a solid candidate, had early backing and plenty of money, and I don't know what went wrong beyond this district simply being a tough one to play in.  I know we picked it up in 2004 and held it the next two elections easily, but I'm not optimistic about beating Tipton short of a wave.

        •  This district (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          is red up and down the ballot.  Shouldn't have expected anything better than high single digits.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:08:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  ... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, bumiputera

            This district is only R+4 04/08, and probably only R+3 08/12 once the very strong 56-44 Bush result fades out in favor of a better Obama result than Kerry (Obama lost 51-49 in 2008, and probably lost here only 52-48 this time around maybe 53-47, but nowhere close to the 44% Kerry got).  

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:12:56 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  incumbents in R+3 seats don't lose absent waves (0+ / 0-)

              19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:35:13 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Really? (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sawolf, MichaelNY

                Tell that to congresspersons elect Gallego (R+5), Ruiz (R+3), and Garcia (R+4, although there were special circumstances here).

                The problem was that Pace was not Hispanic and did not appeal directly to the large and growing Hispanic minority here.

                If there had been a candidate more like Gallego, Ruiz, or Garcia, there would have been a much better showing IMO.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:19:42 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  with 2012 results all those seats will be bluer (0+ / 0-)

                  19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                  by jncca on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:52:19 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Yeah (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    BeloitDem, MichaelNY

                    But that just undercuts the argument you made in the previous comment even more because CO-3 will likely be bluer as well...

                    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                    by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:55:33 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  if it turns out to be bluer as well (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      then I retract my comment.  Although Mary Bono Mack is much weaker than Scott Tipton.  And David Rivera is a clear exception due to corruption.

                      I'd say Canseco would be similar to Tipton.

                      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                      politicohen.com
                      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                      by jncca on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:15:40 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Canseco (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        He was probably stronger than Tipton on account of being Hispanic in a Hispanic district.

                        Gallego over-performed more strongly in his rural house district  and in the rich white suburban areas of San Antonio than on San Antonio's southside.

                        Part of that has to do with the fact that Democrats are maxed out in some of the Hispanic Southside precincts, but some of it also has to do with co-ethnic and religious voting for Canseco.

                        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                        by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:19:22 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  What makes Tipton stronger? (0+ / 0-)

                        Many people thought Bono Mack would be tough to beat because of her veneer of moderation in a still slightly Republican district.

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:30:22 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

            •  Obama also underperformed in the 3rd (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              3rd: 48.4% Obama, 45.5% Dem in 2010 difference of 1%
              6th 53.5% Obama, 46.6% Dem in 2010 difference of 7%
              statewide was 53.7% in 2008 48.3% 2010, difference of 5.5%

              Pace should have come much closer than he did.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

              by sawolf on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:56:18 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  WI-01 belongs in your third category (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, MichaelNY

      It's not as red as most of the seats there, and we might well run Sen. John Lehman, who should give Ryan a run for his money.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:19:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        That was an oversight on my part.  Forgot how close Ryan's race ended up being (awaiting final numbers, but as of election day looking like an 11-point race, the closest in Wisconsin).  Still hard to imagine Ryan actually losing though unless his popularity in his district takes a huge beating, but it is possible.

    •  did I miss SC-07? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:04:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Went back and forth on that one (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        In the end, I'm leaning towards Rice's unexpectedly close 10 point margin against a weak Democrat as being more a factor of this being an open-seat race than anything.  Meaning, I expect him to win by more next time, not less.  Horry County is stubbornly red, and has resisted the blue trend of other population centers in South Carolina.

        •  sure, but not even in your last category? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, MichaelNY

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:17:05 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  You're probably right (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, bumiputera

            I mean hell, if I'm putting people like Kingston, Herrera, and King up there, I might as well include SC-07 too.  Obama only lost SC-07 by nine points in 2008, and from a quick eyeballing of the county movements, looks like he did about the same this year against Romney.  People who get excited about PVI can point to that as this district getting bluer...I see it more as there just being a solid Dem base of around 45% here.  Horry County in particular delivered an almost identical margin to Bush 2004 as it did to McCain and Romney.

    •  Used to live in NJ-05, still registered there (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Kind of pessimistic about our odds in 2014, but I think it's gonna be a headliner in 2016. A huge part of the reason it got no oxygen this year was because we had the mammoth Rothman-Pascrell fight right next door (a lot of people living in NJ-05 went to the primary polls on June 5 thinking they were voting in Rothman-Pascrell).

      How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:27:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  MI-07 (0+ / 0-)

      I don't think it will be competitive at all. Democrats don't really have a bench in the district. That is why we ended up with a Some Dude candidate.

      M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

      by slacks on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:28:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Huh? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, sacman701

        It's competitive because they put on Some Dude who didn't have any kind of money to launch a credible campaign, and Walberg still only beat him by, what, 10 points?  That district is insanely competitive, and with an actual candidate of standing, Walberg is toast, if you ask me.  The vote in this district shows a huge Democratic base from which to build.  We had the almost the worst case scenario in 2012 (the only thing worse would have been not running a candidate, at all), and the thing was still relatively close.

        •  Who do you think (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          will run? I can't really think of anybody that would be interested.

          M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

          by slacks on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 07:21:54 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Hmm... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, MichaelNY

            ...I'm not sure I'd bet on it, but if Marty Griffin really wanted to, he could definitely beat Walberg.  Otherwise, you could get any self-funder and/or former state legislator out of Jackson County and have a competitive race.  Walberg's support is relatively broad, but it's shallow as a wadding pool.  So, basically, you find some way to turnout Dems in big numbers in Jackson and the surrounding urban townships and get something out of Monroe, and you've already got a race.

            I'd be worried about Walberg's staying power if he was based out of somewhere, but the guy is based out of Tipton.  On top of that, he's not particularly liked or powerful.  You're not going to see the GOP racing to save this guy if he gets hit by a swift wind, though, he is good at getting third-party support.

            I'm just saying, after Benishek up in 1, Walberg's district has got to be the next most structurally vulnerable district, and with him being far from the most liked or powerful of Michigan's congressional delegation, this guy is perpetually hanging on to this district by his nails.

            •  I remember Marty's campaign (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera, MichaelNY

              for State Senate. He also ran a terrible campaign. He was destroyed by Nofs. I really don't think he can campaign well enough to win that seat.

              Looking back at election results, Jackson County only elected 2 Democrats to the State House since 1998. Griffin was one of them. The other was Mike Sampson.

              We have a couple former State Reps from other parts of the district, but if they didn't run in 2012 I don't think they will run in 2014.

              We may have a bench in the future. The district just elected 3 new Democratic State Reps. Theresa Abed won in Eaton County. She worked really hard after being blown out in 2010. Bill Lavoy won a seat in Monroe County. His family is well known there, so he may make a good candidate. Finally, we  have Gretchen Driskell from western Washtenaw. She ran a great campaign against a well liked Republican.

              M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

              by slacks on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 06:10:12 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Upton will not be competetive (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      slacks, MichaelNY, bumiputera

      unless he's primaried.

    •  Sean Duffy is WI-07 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      also, I'd add FL-06 to the last category.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:15:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  And the list for House Democrats (4+ / 0-)

    using the same metric.  Good news is, the list is a lot shorter.

    Expect to be competitive
    NC-07: McIntyre
    GA-12: Barrow
    WV-03: Rahall
    FL-18: Murphy
    UT-04: Matheson

    Might be competitive
    FL-26: Garcia
    AZ-02: Barber
    CA-36: Ruiz
    NY-21: Owens
    TX-23: Gallego

    Probably not competitive, but keep an eye on
    NY-18: Maloney
    CA-07: Bera
    AZ-01: Kirkpatrick
    IL-10: Schneider
    NH-01: Shea-Porter
    OR-05: Schrader
    CA-52: Peters
    NY-01: Bishop

    •  AZ-09 ? (4+ / 0-)

      I would put Sinema in Expect to be or Might be. Prolly between.

      •  Might be (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I wasn't really thinking of additions in my response.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:26:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hmm (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

        I definitely have AZ-09 as the safest of the three non-VRA Dem seats in Arizona.  It's the only one that Obama won in 2008, and by a decent 4 point margin.  Politico has Sinema winning by 3%, but they're also missing 200K votes that have been counted since statewide, most of which have favored Dems.  So I think Sinema actually won by more, and given the way her particular area of Phoenix is trending, I think she will be pretty safe in the future.  I suppose I should have put it in the third category though, along with Kirkpatrick in AZ-01.

    •  Here (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      I think that NY-21 should be moved to expected competitive and that NH-01 should be might be competitive.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:22:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Fair enough (4+ / 0-)

        My list might be a tad optimistic, especially in relation to the GOP list before.  I just think Owens is really shaping up to be a difficult incumbent to beat considering that region of upstate NY is trending towards us, and that he has been heavily targeted two elections in a row already but has prevailed.  As for Shea-Porter, I think she proved the skeptics wrong this year, and will be tough to unseat again except in a strong GOP year.

    •  why wouldn't the five swing districts (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      with relatively new Democrats that you called "might be competitive" not be competitive?

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:35:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  more defense (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY, bumiputera

      AZ9: should keep trending blue, but Dem turnout should be down in 2014 and I would not expect Sinema to get a free pass.

      CA26: Strickland kept this fairly close, and a well-funded moderate might have a chance in a midterm.

      CT5: Less vulnerable to midterm dropoff, but the GOP will likely contest this given how close this was.

      MA6: If Tierney stays, the GOP should take another crack at him. If he retires, it's an open seat that they could potentially win.

      NH2: Kuster only won by about 5.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:35:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Fair points (6+ / 0-)

        With light-blue seats like CA-26 and CT-05, I tend to assume the closest race the Democrats are likely to have is when they first win it.  Compare to seats like CT-04 (Himes), IA-01 (Braley), KY-03 (Yarmuth), MN-01 (Walz), and other light blue seats that the Democrats lock down pretty easily after their first competitive elections.  The past decade of elections has led me to believe that Republicans are only going to have more and more trouble competing in blue districts down the road (and the same goes for us in red districts).

        As for Tierney, the fact that they couldn't beat him this year with a top-tier, well-funded candidate makes me think they can't get him next time.  I don't think he will continue to be as unpopular unless new things develop over the next two years with his in-laws.  I also think it extremely likely he retires.

        NH-02: That's fair.  But she only won by 5 beating basically the best candidate the GOP has for this seat.

      •  CA-26 might have close races, but should be a hold (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        About the only moderate that Republicans have around here is Jeff Gorell, but he only got 53% against a non-funded Democratic candidate who had never run for office before and actually lost Oxnard by more than Strickland did.

        26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:00:52 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  MA-06 is not a seat the GOP (5+ / 0-)

        would have a chance with if it were open. There are plenty of strong Democrats who could run if it were, including Katherine Clark. The second problem is that Essex county has trended more Democratic over the last decade, as opposed to some of the southern tier of Boston suburbs that have gotten more Republican, and a Republican trend in parts of Central Massachusetts that were already historically Republican and were Democrats were probably temporarily over-extended in the 1990s. This is my understanding of it at least.

        Brown only won Essex, which comprises all of this district, 50-49 against Elizabeth Warren. Simply put, if Scott Brown could only barely win a district, and Richard Tisei couldn't beat John Tierney despite the immediacy of his family problems, the GOP won't have any shot in an open seat. That said, Tierney could have an easier time getting reelected in 2014. For one, he's never been implicated in the scandal, and two, it broke all the back in the 2010 campaign, when, thankfully, Tierney had a completely unacceptable tea party Republican as his opponent. Without real evidence of Tierney's wrong-doing, such a scandal just won't last forever and it can't keep being reused when a majority of voters probably won't continue to hold it against him or view it as relevant.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:14:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Strickland was a long-time, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        well known politico in the district though, and for all his conservatism and faults, he was acknowledged by California posters here as a good campaigner and politician who not only raised a ton of money, but had a solid base in the district, whereas Brownley came from the Northern LA county suburbs, and had to work hard to establish herself in a district she didn't have a political base in. Not to mention unlike some other CA districts, this district is wealthy and mostly white, and over all, Democrats don't have significant turnout issues here, and parts of it, like Ventura, are slowly getting more Democratic. Republicans could probably keep it close if they tried, but winning it seems out of reach at this point.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:19:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  also why in the world (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      would NY-18, a swingy, wealthy district, not be competitive?
      Or CA-7, with a freshman in an ancestrally Republican area? Almost all of these will be competitive barring a recruiting fail.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:36:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  CA-07 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

        Other than Roger Niello or Peter Tateishi, what GOP bench is there?

        22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

        by kurykh on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:41:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's two off the bat (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I'm sure a county supervisor could run as well.  The district isn't blue enough to be anything but competitive in 2014.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:09:41 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  CA7 (6+ / 0-)

        That seat is probably gone until the next redistricting. Sac's older/closer suburbs are rapidly trending blue as they fill up with nonwhites. Guys like Bera and assemblyman Richard Pan really are the new face of the district. I think Lungren could keep it competitive if he's up for a rematch, but Bera would be a strong favorite against anyone else.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:44:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Ancestrally GOP doesn't count for much anymore (6+ / 0-)

        A lot of these ancestrally GOP areas (but now light blue) went easily for Democrats this year, and some even resisted the GOP wave of 2010 (Himes, Perlmutter, McNerney, Chris Murphy, Owens, Keating, etc.)

        Why did Maloney beat Hayworth by 4 points in NY-18?  Hayworth seemed a good fit for the district...socially moderate, fiscally conservative, scandal-free...all I can point to is that Obama won it by 5 points against McCain and he probably hit that kind of number again this year.  Does the GOP bench in this area include many Republicans who are stronger than Hayworth was as an incumbent?

        As for CA-07, I have a theory that, at least in the near future, Republicans in California will continue do worse and worse in each election.  This I expect to continue for awhile more.  Almost every part of the state is undeniably trending Dem and I think they will continue to lose House seats, not gain them back, unless we face another GOP wave election.  If a CA GOP institution like Lungren couldn't hold off Bera, would another Republican really have such a good chance?

        •  It can be a contributing factor to LaTourette's (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, jncca, LordMike, MichaelNY

          Syndrome, particularly in states where the GOP is still fairly healthy. That said, it probably is much more of a positive for a Republican incumbent or in an open seat than a negative for a Democratic incumbent.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

          by fearlessfred14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:12:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  NY 18: Should Be Interesting (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          I know the Democratic cities of Beacon and Poughkeepsie sometimes have turnout issues. That is why they both have Republican Mayors despite the fact that over 40% of the population of those cities are registered Democrats (and most independents skew heavily Dem). Newburgh and
          Middletown aren't as bad though.

          NY is always weird because State Assemblyman and Senators don't make the best candidates. Besides Greg Ball (who is a jerk), I don't think any Republican state officials would run. I am unsure which local Republican elected officials or random business people are interested. I assume they will go for somebody in Putnam County, because that is the most Republican part of the district.

          M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

          by slacks on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:21:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Hayworth did make some dickish comments (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          about hurricane Irene relief.

        •  I really hope this is the case (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Darrell Issa achieved an unimpressive margin for his national stature and the weak ass opponent we fielded. I cannot say this enough, but we need to field a good candidate for this district, which R+5 currently (Don't think 2012 has been added up yet), which isn't as red as Lungren's district use to be.  I mean hell, the old CA-03 was R+6 as recent as 2010.  If both the SD democratic party and OC democratic party don't make this race a top priority, well, I think my head may explode.

          Side Note: My father and I were recently talking about the election and the results in our congressional district.  He said there was no way Issa should have won, considering the massive shift the the left his new district took compared to his old one, and the combination of how large a bomb thrower he is.  He mentioned how he should just do it, and started asking me some questions about the process to declare one's self a candidate.  Now, my father is an attorney in the OC portion of the district, and when it comes to governance, his highest position was member of our Homeowner's association, so he would be a somedude.

          It's an interesting thought, but if the democratic party fails to recruit someone for CA-49, I'd tell my father he should go for it.  

          Coolest thing for me would likely be managing a campaign for congress.  Having dealt with an incompetent manager in the past, I pretty much know the do's and do not's.

          Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

          by Daman09 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:06:57 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  the demographic trends in CA (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        mean that every election cycle will have a more favorable electorate than the last. especially given that there will be hotly contested statewide races in 2014, and election day registration. it's not a state that's going to swing the same way as a state with static demographics and a large aging white moderate electorate. dems picked up seats in 2010 in CA, which was a GOP wave year elsewhere, for the same reason.

    •  Too optomistic (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      on Maloney and Shea-Porter.

    •  Who might take on Bishop? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Is Randy Altschuler going to grace us with his presence yet again?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:35:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ruiz won by more (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      Than Scott Peters. Ami Bera and Julia Brownley though. (Who saw that coming?)

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:05:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think both the NH seats (0+ / 0-)

      might be competitive, depending on what the political climate is like, and Shea Porter should be in the "might be competitive" category. Of all the Democrats listed, the one who figures to be the most endangered is McIntyre. As of this time, I'd give him no more than a 40% chance at reelection, assuming he chooses not to retire, in which case, the seat is lost, period. But 2 years is a long time in politics, so we shall see.

      You also left out Tierney (D-Mass). He should be in the most competitive category.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:36:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think Tierney will be any more endangered (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        than Cicilline in RI-01.  Voters had a full two years to hear about their faults, millions were spent to hammer them, the GOP put up their best possible candidates, and still the Democrats won.  Don't see Tierney being in serious trouble unless even more bad news comes out over the next two years.  I think it more likely that his in-laws' problems slowly fades away in importance relative to this past election.  Just don't see Massachusetts Republicans getting in here if they couldn't this year.

        Plus I think it likely Tierney retires given how he seemed to not even care about his re-election at the end, at which point this goes to safe Dem again.

  •  More about VA-Gov (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, BeloitDem, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    An independent Bolling candidacy?

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    I doubt it would happen, but if he did run as an Independent and was on the ballot in November then I think McAuliffe would be a clear favorite.

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:34:06 PM PST

  •  House Committee Chairs (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Were there female GOP chairs during the previous congress?

    Because the politico article makes is sound like there were some, otherwise this is sorta moot point.

    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

    by lordpet8 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:46:09 PM PST

  •  $73,000 in Hillary debt still outstanding (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, BeloitDem, wu ming, MichaelNY

    http://www.politico.com/...

    You would think they could have shelved this story by now.  But nope, Bill is still out there trying to raise money to pay off Hillary's 2008 campaign debt.

  •  The great tipping state battle, as of now (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingTag, BeloitDem, bfen, MichaelNY

    CO:  5.38%
    PA:  5.40%

    NH is the leader in the clubhouse (certified):  5.57%

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:15:09 PM PST

  •  Congratulations to my Congressman (9+ / 0-)

    Mr. McIntyre.  I disagree with your far right evangelical social and economic agenda.  But at least you're not a Republican.  So much loss in NC this year makes me respect McIntyre more.

    •  he's not far right on economics (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, MichaelNY

      he's centrist on economics and far right on social issues.  If he were far right on both he'd be a Republican.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:37:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Very socially conservative (9+ / 0-)

        I think Mike McIntyre's fundamentalist evangelical views on religion and social issues are to the right of most Republicans.  He started the Congressional Prayer Caucus which he claims is bipartisan even though there are only like three Democrats and a hundred Republicans in it.

        As for economics, yes, he is a little more moderate but I think he's still right of center.  He opposes the Ryan budget, but on the other hand, he hates Obamacare and I don't think he's ever voted to raise taxes on the rich.  The only reason he supported the Stimulus is because it's PORK which he loves to bring back to the district.

        One Democratic thing I do admire about him though, is how hard he's fought to get recognition to Lumbee Native Americans, which is one of the largest tribes in the U.S. (unrecognized) and used to be located in the district until the GOP took it out.  It's ridiculous that it hasn't been passed yet, though.

        So yes, he's still 100x better than Rouzer.

    •  Ooo, if you don't mind me asking, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      what part of the 7th district are you from? I'm in the neighboring 2nd district.  

      20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

      by aggou on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:48:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Im happy Sweeney is running for Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    cause at least he aint running for Senator. He's a Christiecrat any way. It doesnt bother me not one bit that he putting himself in position to be destroyed. In essence being a sacraficial lamb.

    Booker can wait till '17, and we can have a liberal/progressive running for the senate. My preferance would be between Pallone and Bouno. Hopefully Buono will see, she has a better chance at running for the Senate than Governor.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:52:16 PM PST

    •  Steve Sweeney's running? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      That could be interesting, especially since I knew his son for all four years of undergrad (didn't know who his father was until graduation day).

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:20:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Actually, he said (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      he will run if Booker doesn't.  I just hope his seat is not up for election next year.  It's D-leaning, but based in Salem County, which is kinda NJ's answer to the South.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:56:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Booker should just wait another 4 yrs IMO (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        and if you ask me, his style is not for the Senate but rather Governor. He likes being an executive. Senators are not executives. He done a good job in being the top dog in Newark. So he jus have to wait to be the top dog for the entire state of New Jersey

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 07:13:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  DCCyclone: I enjoyed reading your letter on TPM (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, itskevin, KingofSpades, bjssp, MichaelNY

    and just thought it deserved a shoutout here.

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:10:23 PM PST

  •  LOL Bolling... (4+ / 0-)

    When I first heard he might run as an independent I thought that was stupid because he has no chance at winning, but he may just want to screw Cuccinelli by splitting the Republican votes in the general.

  •  Speaking of the "ben chandler lifetime employment" (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, WisJohn, James Allen, JGibson

    act that came up yesterday only shoring up Chandler a few points, here's what an actual "lifetime employment" district would have looked like:
    Photobucket

    Obama carried it by 522 votes in 2008, making it just R+3.6, and it's at least a good 10% more Dem than statewide on average

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:12:10 PM PST

    •  He might well have lost that district anyways (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      because of how much coal country you put there. The eastern part of that district would have been brutal this year.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:27:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Possibly, but the point was to underscore (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        just how ridiculous that Republican's claim was.  They made his district marginally more favorable rather than significantly more so as with OH-01, etc.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:30:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Well (0+ / 0-)

        Rahall hung on, so it would have been possible.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:42:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, the problem with Chandler was (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          He's not a coal guy. He was given ancestrally-Dem coal country to shore him up and it backfired.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:19:13 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Chandler probably still would have won (0+ / 0-)

        those areas. They honestly remain quite Democratic locally, and legislatively, Democrats held almost all of the contested over there this year.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:26:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Wow (0+ / 0-)

      I didn't know you could draw an Obama district in Eastern Kentucky.

      However, that district still would've gotten significantly  more Republican in 2012.  Romney's coattails (which were very strong in the coal counties) may still have propelled Barr to victory, considering that much of that district would have been new territory to Chandler:

      Photobucket

      •  Although (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        After Obama's gone (which is now, electorally), Chandler would be safe in that district forever

        •  No (0+ / 0-)

          There's still 2014 and 2016. It won't be until 2018 for Obama's shadow to be electorally irrelevant.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:49:20 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  The problem is though (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        the coal region is one of the most Democratic in the state at the local level; even for statewide Dems it was one of their strongest regions, so I can't see Democrats not having placed it in Chandler's district if they had the chance to truly shore him up.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:56:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Obama Breaks 65 Million! (9+ / 0-)

    https://docs.google.com/...

    Also, the 3.5% margin mark: 50.89 to 47.39.

    •  Hooray, my pres prediction turns correct!* (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      *using margin of error.  I said 4-5 points and with rounding it's now 4%.  Also called the EC correctly.

      Major LOL at Gallup for having those Romney +5 to 7 days the week before election day.  Was their RV screen even close to the actual result?

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:32:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Should be 4.5m margin by end of the day too (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:33:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Now, Obama has the 4.5 Mil lead and 50.91% (5+ / 0-)
      Dave Wasserman @Redistrict  4m  
      CA: Los Angeles reports 58,176 new @BarackObama votes, 14,052 @MittRomney. Obama up to 50.91%, 4.5M vote lead
      It's clear now that he will hit 51%.
      •  He could? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I was just musing about the possibility of hitting 51% even.

        How many votes are there left to count?

        Wasserman's spreadsheet has him at 50.90%, not 50.91%. I wonder if there are still a few more updates that he hasn't yet put in.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:06:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I didn't think so even a week ago (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tommypaine, MichaelNY

          but these smaller provisional voting reports are moving the number faster than I thought, and there's still more to go in CA. I believe NY alone is going to dump a ton more votes when they certify around 12/10.

        •  50.91% now (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          The recent changes are predominantly from a large LA county dump.  There aren't that many votes left in CA, but Wasserman alleged 1m in NY/NJ a day or two ago, and we haven't seen anything from NY since then.

          Also, not sure about LA.  I suspect we are close to zero.

          Fresno did a small update at 3pm, first in a week, and added 1000+ for Obama and 600+ for Mitt.  Mitt leads the county by 2500 now.  The state suggests there are still 20k votes there, but no way to know.

          (Kudos to Riverside for posting exactly how many votes remained each day on their website.)

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:18:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Wasserman falling a bit behind (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701

            besides the Fresno news, San Luis Obispo certified their final numbers an hour or so ago.  In the final counting Obama picked up about 100 more votes, winning the reddest-of-the-blue-coastal-counties by 1.02%.  This compares to him winning it by 5% in 2008.

            CA as a whole looks like it will end up about 1% less of a margin than 2008, but most of the purple counties (Butte, Nevada, Fresno, SLO, Trinity) went more Republican in a way similar to the rest of the country (4%-ish).  The big exception is Riverside, which only goes from 2.3% in 2008 to 1.6% in 2012.

            Additionally Fresno was +2.1 Obam in 08, and is currently 1.07% Romney, so it moved less than the others above which are whiter.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:46:35 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  So (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BeloitDem

            If there are exactly 1 million votes alone in New York and New Jersey and those votes go at the same rate for Obama, Romney, and Other as they have so far in those states combined, Obama will hit 50.98% just from that.

            With all the provisionals left to count elsewhere, it might be practically impossible for Obama not to reach 51%.

            On the other hand, he'd need about only about 300,000 more ballots nationwide and win those 60-40 to reach exactly 51.00%.

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:43:12 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  About two-thirds of states still incomplete. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          Obama is winning all the provisionals big.  He should get there.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

          by spiderdem on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:18:42 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Now up to 3.52% (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Where else are the votes left?  It would be great for Obama to hit 51.00%.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:52:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Now, 3.53% gap (0+ / 0-)

      50.9%-47.37%.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:39:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I would prefer if the president didnt pick Kerry (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, JBraden, MichaelNY

    for an admin position, but I wonder if some people are freaking out too much over the potential open seat in MA.

    I've seen comments that it would hand the seat to Scott Brown.

    For one thing, we dont know if he would run. He might prefer to run for governor in 2014, or maybe not run for anything.

    Even if he does run, it seems quite likely we get a Dem candidate much better than Martha Coakley. The political environment will likely be better for Dems than Jan 2010 and the national party wont be caught off guard this time.

    No doubt Brown would be a strong candidate, and would have an excellent chance at winning the race. But I think people are freaking out about it too much.

    •  The Problem (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, MichaelNY

      Is that we'd need someone exceptionally strong to beat Brown, and none of our current U.S. Representatives are such. They're all boring (except for Frank, but he's retiring and I doubt he'd have the appetite for a Senate run).

      Deval Patrick could probably beat Brown if both ran, and it'd be nice to have an African American voice in the Senate (yay diversity, for the same reason that I hope Lautenberg retires and is replaced by Booker).

      Another option is Ayanna Pressley.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:56:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Look (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I know I'm hardly ever the cheerleader for diversity causes to the degree that some here are (ndrw is definitely the chairman of that cause), but I do think that diversity matters.

        We, as a party, need to actively groom minority candidates who can win in non-minority-majority jurisdictions. There are very few places which have the ability to elect minority candidates, and more specifically African Americans, statewide.

        I truly believe that this seat should go to an African American should Kerry be chosen as SoS or for another cabinet position.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:59:15 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Setti Warren (0+ / 0-)

          Is another really exciting possibility for me, although I know that last cycle most were very gloomy about his chances against Brown.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:00:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Sonia Chang-Diaz? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:33:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  She'd be nice (0+ / 0-)

          But I'd put her fourth on my list of wants:

          Ayanna Pressley
          Deval Patrick
          Setti Warren
          Sonia Chang-Diaz

          She'd be both the first Chinese American Senator and the first Costa Rican American Senator, I believe.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:39:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Why do you like the others so much? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:43:36 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Diversity (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tietack, askew

              We already have both Asian American and Hispanic American Senators, but currently not a single African American in that body.

              Don't get me wrong, I love them all.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

              by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:49:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  because they aren't White (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:01:32 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  ... (7+ / 0-)

                That makes me sound awful, but let's be honest here: white people control way too much of the political power in this country relative to their proportion in the population.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:05:10 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  If we are a truly "progressive" party (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wwmiv, MichaelNY

                  we should continue to make sure that it is led by people of all colors.

                  I hope; therefore, I can live.

                  by tietack on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 07:14:51 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  I don't think it makes you sound awful. (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wwmiv, MichaelNY, askew

                  There's a point when identify politics can be negative, but I don't think you approach it just by wanting a little more color in the Senate. There's no magic number, but having no black people just doesn't seem right.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 08:29:30 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  I definitely agree (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wwmiv

                  In each individual race, though, I'll always vote for whomever I think is the best candidate, irrespective of their color, sex, religion, sexual orientation, national origin, etc.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:54:19 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I know (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, askew

                    http://www.dailykos.com/...

                    We, as a party, need to actively groom minority candidates who can win in non-minority-majority jurisdictions.
                    I think I need to reiterate that I said groom. Not recruit. Not clear the field for.

                    What I mean is that we need to actively groom potential candidates so that when they finally run for office they are quite clearly the best option and so people like you and jncca (I don't mean that negatively at all) will have no qualms voting for them.

                    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                    by wwmiv on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 12:21:54 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I'm by far not the toughest audience for (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      jncca

                      candidates who aren't white males. I think I can honestly say I don't have any preference for candidates of any particular color, sex, sexual orientation, or religion. In general, I agree that women and members of various minorities should be represented more nearly proportionately in government.

                      But there are other problems: Lawyers are wealthy people are way overrepresented. It would be great if there were a way for Congress to be mostly poor or working class people. That would really improve the system! Think about that for a second to realize how much more radical a change that would be than the important but less transformational stuff we're talking about.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 12:54:00 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

              •  Neither is Change-Diaz. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                wwmiv

                I was looking for something more specific, if there is anything.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 08:27:49 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  Really? (4+ / 0-)

        "Is that we'd need someone exceptionally strong to beat Brown"

        2010 was an exceptionally unusual circumstance. In any usual midterm general election turnout, Brown will lose.

        •  I'm not sure about taht (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          GradyDem, tietack, MichaelNY

          Brown is an exceptionally strong candidate.

          Note that he polled competitively with Warren, who was also a very strong candidate on the back of being a policy wonk, up until the very end.

          Note that he outperformed Romney by a net of 16 points.

          Note that most every other potential candidate that we had with any stature did not enter the race, most because Brown looked and is very strong.

          Note that he conned a majority of Massachusetts citizens into approving of his rightist voting record because he seems moderate.

          Note that he is the only Republican to win a federal Senate race in Massachusetts since Brooke.

          Note that he outperformed Mitt Romney's performance against Ted Kennedy in both 2010 and 2012.

          I think that qualifies him as a strong politician.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:17:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            And he's a fundraising juggernaut.

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:17:55 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  He was when he was an incumbent (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera

              Would he be as much of a juggernaut as a defeated challenger?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:55:14 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Probably (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                There's lots of Republican money in Massachusetts (and lots of Democratic money as well).

                And he wouldn't be a challenger because the seat would be open, and a good argument can be made that he'd be the de facto incumbent as a former Senator.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                by wwmiv on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 12:23:09 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  Ca depend, mais... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, MichaelNY

          I would rather not find out in any event.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:20:41 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I think Brown has hurt image more than a little (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        It would take another clusterfuck of Republican-friendly circumstances for him to win again, even in a special election.

        This is all assuming we don't punt on our Dem nominee.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:22:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  booker ew (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm all for having more diversity but ideology is more important. I'll take Barbara Buono instead.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 01:05:06 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Bob Massie (11+ / 0-)

      will hold this seat and WV-Sen as well if Rockefeller retires.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:05:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  List (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Does anyone have a list of everyone who has announced for the Jackson seat?

    Toi Hutchison
    Debbie Halvorson
    Mel Reynolds
    Anthony Beale
    Napoleon Harris

    Those are the only officially announced names that I have. Are there any more that have taken the jump? What about others that are mulling or speculated?

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

    by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:09:32 PM PST

    •  Will Burns (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Ald. Will Burns is widely expected to announce.

      Also, while it's hard to tell how serious he is (just because of the size of the primary field I think it's worth mentioning) a pastor named Corey Brooks is running and seems to have gotten an inordinate amount of media attention for an apparent some dude.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:31:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Would set him up nicely to run for Senate in 2016 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        My guess is the black community in the IL Democratic Party will be very, very determined to win that seat, seeing as it was Obama's (and Carol Moseley-Braun's).

        He could even claim to be something of an Obama heir, seeing as he was an early campaign adviser and protege of Obama's.

    •  When did Hutchinson announce? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:54:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  SD-SEN: Ex-Gov Mike Rounds to announce tomorrow (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
    Former South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds on Thursday is scheduled to announce whether he's running for the U.S. Senate.

    Rounds, a Republican, in a statement Wednesday said he's planning stops in Pierre, Rapid City and Sioux Falls.

    State Sen. Dan Lederman, R-Dakota Dunes, said Rounds will undoubtedly announce that he plans to seek the seat.

    "Not only is he running, he is going to be our next U.S. senator from South Dakota," said Lederman, a close friend of Rounds.

    I wonder if Jerry Moran can get Sean Parnell or Mead Treadwell to announce for AK-Sen by week's end. That'd be quite the hat trick roll out for his new job as NRSC Chairman.

    What are your thoughts on a Rounds vs. Johnson match up? What are your thoughts on a Rounds vs. SHS match up?

    http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/...

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:21:45 PM PST

    •  Rounds has been eying this seat for several months (8+ / 0-)

      so I doubt Moran recruited him. That said, he'd be a strong candidate particularly if the seat is open. If Johnson fights it out, it'll probably be a competitive race.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:28:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Disagree on Johnson (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        If Johnson tries to run again he'll be demolished. He simply does not have the ability to run a competitive campaign and his only blowout win (his first two campaigns were 50-49) was in the immediate aftermath of his brain hemorrhage and involved a very large sympathy vote combined with the national atmosphere being very favorable to the party and not to mention a completely sacrificial lamb opponent.

        He would not keep this race as close as SHS would.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:35:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Okay (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42, MichaelNY

          I see you've explained things more up here... but really... all you've said is that you think Johnson is physically not up to the rigors of a campaign. You don't seem to be offering much more evidence beyond that.

          Also, his first victory in 1996 was against an incumbent. He unseated an incumbent Republican senator in red state in a presidential year! (And one who wasn't under indictment or even some kind of investigation.) Not a whole lot of Democrats can lay claim to that accomplishment. And he fended off John Thune despite being targeted to the utter hilt—a John Thune, I might add, who managed to knock off the Democratic Senate leader just two years later.

          Those are signs of strength, not weakness, and I think it's misleading to read them any other way. To say that a non-incumbent would fare better than an incumbent who isn't personally flawed (I'm talking in the polls, not physical condition) is a major, major claim to make and requires a lot more supporting evidence.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:53:10 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Also, how rigorous is campaigning in South Dakota? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            It's a small state and it's not as if he has to pound the pavement in order to knock on doors. If he's able to operate fully as a senator, can't he keep up with a campaign?

            In fact, how did he handle it last time, when he might have easily been much more physically worn out than he is now?

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 10:15:49 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Johnson retires (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, MichaelNY

      Johnson will not be able to put up with the rigors of a competitive race, there will not be a Johnson v. Rounds battle.

      Rounds v. Herseth Sandlin starts out as nothing other than a 50/50 race with the quality of the campaign, national atmosphere, and economy largely determining how it goes from there, so let's not get ahead of ourselves in that regard.

      Personally, I think that the range of possibile victories in a matchup of that stature is between 55-45 to Rounds and 52-48 Herseth Sandlin (with the closer outcomes being much more likely).

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:31:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  A good race for PPP to poll, no? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:32:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Definitely (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          But I'd caution interpreting the results of a Johnson v. Rounds race, because those numbers would reflect a baseline that Johnson would not be able to match after a prolonged campaign by Rounds.

          A Rounds campaign could very easily dispatch Johnson simply on the back of a very strong ground retail politicking game.

          Johnson is physically unable to do the same as he is wheelchair bound.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:42:11 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  ok (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, jncca, itskevin, KingofSpades

      Rounds v:

      Johnson - tilt R
      SHS - lean R to likely R
      anyone else (even Varilek and his endless supply of corn dogs, beer, and Jager) - safe R

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:45:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Explanation? (0+ / 0-)

        I'd put it:

        Johnson - likely R
        SHS - tossup
        anyone else - safe R

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:53:42 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  ok (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, itskevin, KingofSpades, bjssp, MichaelNY

          Johnson is a well-liked incumbent, his health notwithstanding. If he can convince people that he's still up to the job even if he isn't capable of running a vigorous retail campaign, he has a good shot even against a popular former governor.

          SHS is in about the same spot Heitkamp was in 2 years ago although she hasn't been out of office as long, but Rounds is more popular than Berg. His closest equivalent in ND is probably Jack Dalrymple (not Hoeven, whose approvals were in the stratosphere) who I think Heitkamp probably would not have beaten. I think SHS would be tossup or tilt D against Noem, but not against Rounds.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:07:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Where'd you get these inferences on Johnson from? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, bumiputera

            And Rounds wasn't that popular.  He was in the 50's for favorables, someone once said.  He's NOT Hoeven.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:50:19 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  ... (4+ / 0-)

              He didn't say he was Hoeven, he said the equivalent was Dalrymple.

              Which I actually agree with. A backbencher Governor, not outrageously popular but definitely well-liked.

              The problem with this is that that model of politician is easily beatable with a very well run campaign, and SHS - contra BeloitDem below this post - is not the typical at-large representative in terms of stature.

              Yes, most at-large representatives do not carry the same stature as Governors, but in this case I'd argue that the two candidates' stature is about the same. She's the granddaughter of a now very well regarded former governor (despite him losing his reelection bid), his wife was Secretary of State at one point, and his son was State Senate Majority Leader.

              The Herseth name is South Dakota is one of the biggest names in state politics and has been for more than a half century. Building up that kind of reservoir of good will means something in such a small state.

              Even in 2010 she only lost by 2 points in a year where Democrats both incumbent and not from neighboring states with similar demographic profiles were losing by much much much larger margins.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

              by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:00:33 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  clarification (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                after reading my post again it seems like I said "not from neighboring states".

                the "not" applies to "incumbent and not," not to the "neighboring states" clause.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:02:40 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  Tim Johnson's health (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, bumiputera

            This clip, which is from four months ago, indicates his speech isn't that bad. I'm not sure if it will ever be back to where it was, although I have no frame of reference here, so I am not sure what "normal" is.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 08:40:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  vs. SHS is probably lean R. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, MichaelNY

          Governors are bigger deals than Reps even in at large states, and South Dakota is a red state.

        •  Wait whut (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, sapelcovits

          You're saying Tim Johnson would be Likely R—basically, almost no hope at all—but that SHS would have a vastly better chance than him? How is that?

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:48:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Well, I'd guess an R tilt (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but some poll taken awhile back showed Rounds in the 50's for favorables, so he's not quite like Hoeven at all.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:48:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Obama got 58.96% in OR-01 (6+ / 0-)

    Looks like the PVI is going up, and it's probably safe for now on.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:42:32 PM PST

  •  Re: AK-Sen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Sean Parnell is not a strong candidate.  Of the few speeches of his I've watched (including his speech after Palin resigned her half term and he was inaugurated), he seemed very nervous and uncomfortable being in the spotlight.  I think he wants to stay in Alaska and try to get another term as governor.

    Mead Treadwell may run but I don't think he'd be Begich's downfall, either.  Begich will not be defeated easily.

  •  NC St. Sup Court retirement. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://www.wral.com/...

    Not sure who will get to fill the position, but I'd guess Perdue.

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:56:13 PM PST

  •  So by my estimation, if redistricting didn't occur (5+ / 0-)

    We would have gained exactly the 25 seats we needed to win the house based on actual results.  With different retirements and recruitment this could have been higher. I'm assuming that Ross and Boren still retired and Grayson was nominated in FL-08.

    Here's how the election might have looked:
    Photobucket

    Seats we won in reality that we wouldn't have under the old maps are 15:
    AZ-01 (same)
    AZ-02 (old 8th)
    AZ-09 (old 5th)
    CA-07 (old 3rd)
    CA-26 (old 24th)
    CA-41 (old 26th)
    CA-52 (old 50th)
    FL-09 (old 8th)
    FL-18 (old 16th)
    IL-08 (same)
    IL-10 (same)
    IL-11 (old 13th)
    MD-06 (same)
    NV-04 (old 3rd/new)
    WA-10 (old 3rd/new)

    However we would have won the following 32 seats using old numbers:
    CA-21
    FL-24
    IA-03
    MA-01
    MI-01
    MI-07
    MI-09
    MI-11
    MO-03
    MN-06
    NC-08
    NC-11
    NC-13
    NJ-09
    NY-09
    NY-22
    NY-26
    IN-02
    IN-09
    OH-01
    OH-06
    OH-10
    OH-13
    PA-04
    PA-06
    PA-07
    PA-11
    PA-12
    SC-05
    WA-03
    WA-08
    WI-07

    Again the difference is exactly the 17 we currently need to take over the house.  Grayson may have defeated Webster in the 8th though as Obama probably matched or exceeded his 2008 52% in that district, but Grayson faced an extremely underfunded opponent while Webster faced a very strong one.  Ross and Boren could have simply not retired and we could have gotten a strong enough candidate to flip AR-01.  We might have possibly also won IL-08, OH-12 and PA-15.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:09:49 PM PST

    •  I am interested in how you came up with these numb (0+ / 0-)

      Because I am fairly certain you are incorrect about Wa-3. JHB won by more than 20 points and the district didnt change that much.

      Age 24, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler), getting married Dec 6th

      by KyleinWA on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:16:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm saying that I think (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, jj32

        Denny Heck would have beaten her in a rematch had both of them run under the old district lines this year.  Sure she won big against a nobody, but the district would have retained Olympia and Heck very clearly would have run again while Obama would have also won the district again (making it PVI even or R+1).  It would have been a top tier contest like CA-07 was this year.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:19:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  This is quite interesting (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sapelcovits, BeloitDem

      But I think each race needs an explanation. This would be good for a diary.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:44:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  defeated R state rep: no need to change the party, (5+ / 0-)

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:11:02 PM PST

  •  Hagel being vetted for State or Defense (6+ / 0-)

    link.

    It seems possible Kerry will stay in the Senate and Rice could stay at the UN.

    I noted before, Clinton for SOS and Panetta for CIA were kind of surprising picks. So I think we could see something like that for the second term as well.

    •  Or Rice at State (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, KingofSpades, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      and Hagel at Defense.

    •  Wow (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, LordMike, MichaelNY

      I would very much prefer Hagel to both Kerry and Rice at State.

      Rice really does well in her current position, and probably wouldn't be able to win a confirmation battle at this point (sadly).

      Kerry should stay in the Senate so as to keep Menendez away from the foreign affairs gavel.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:36:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        see here

        Kerry would be really good at Defense, though I doubt he wants it.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:41:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, Menendez would get more power (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, sawolf, askew, MichaelNY

        to block progress with normalizing relationships with Cuba.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:43:19 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  i'm getting pissed about how republicans (6+ / 0-)

        are treating rice. there's really no justification for it at all, and it's making me think this has more to do with race and gender than qualifications or anything she said about banghazi. i want obama to nominate her just to stick to the republican asshole senators.

        •  It has to do with her being a Democrat (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, jj32, ehstronghold, MichaelNY

          I think the only reason we don't see more of this shit is that it's harder for Republicans to demonize white men.  They clearly have no qualms about telling bald-faced lies to hurt opponents.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

          by sawolf on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:47:13 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  That'd be bad (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          A majority of American disapprove of the administration's handling of Bengazi, but at the same time do not think there was the cover-up that the GOP is alleging.

          Unfortunately, Rice is the face of that disapproval. It'd be bad politics in this case to stick it to them. We need to find other places, where our position and standing is more popular, to do the sticking.

          http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:48:52 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I dont think race or gender are an issue (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, WisJohn, MichaelNY

          But she is clearly being treated unfairly.

          The focus here is on one Sunday worth of TV appearances.

          Yet, as NSA, Condi Rice said numerous inaccurate things about the Iraq war, and McCain, Graham, Collins had no problems promoting her to SOS.

          Ironically, I think Obama and Biden even voted for her, recognizing the president deserves some leeway to pick his cabinet.

        •  if it were about race (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY

          Condi wouldn't have been SoS.  It's about party, party, and party.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:53:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Supporting Condi doesn't mean they're not racist (7+ / 0-)

            There's a ton of racial code words being used against Susan Rice right now, and the reason that she's become the punching bag definitely has a lot to do with race.

            •  You can't be that racist if you voted for a Black (0+ / 0-)

              secretary of state.  It just doesn't work that way.  Rice has some serious issues, mostly regarding the intelligence provided for her after Benghazi. Half this site is pulling the race card.  It's appalling.

              19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:17:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Oh give me a break (9+ / 0-)

                Lost of individuals have cognitive dissonance, and are totally fine voting for a black person when it is in the interest of their party but also end up using obviously coded racial language when it is also in their party's best interest irrespective of whether or not those individuals are racist themselves.

                I don't for a minute think that McCain, Ayotte, Graham, and the other GOP Senators that are having this conniption fit are racists, but that does not disprove the idea that they are using racially coded language.

                Graham, in particular, is using racially coded language because that's simply the dialect - where such stuff is embedded into historically into the language, as a historical artifact that doesn't dictate whether those who speak it today are racists themselves - he grew up with in South Carolina.  

                And you, as someone who studies political science, should realize that there is a whole bunch of scholarship to this exact point.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:31:13 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Agree, but... (0+ / 0-)
                  Graham, in particular, is using racially coded language because that's simply the dialect - where such stuff is embedded into historically into the language, as a historical artifact that doesn't dictate whether those who speak it today are racists themselves - he grew up with in South Carolina.  
                  Using racially coded language because that's the language you grew up with just is being racist. If Graham wants to not be a racist, he has to develop the sort of self-awareness that would allow him to perceive the racial significance of such terms.
                  •  I disagree. Strongly. (0+ / 0-)

                    It's like saying that you're using the name of God in vain when expressing a common relatively mild expletive.

                    It's like saying that GM wanted to tell people in Spanish speaking countries that the Nova would not go.

                    It's like saying that the language you've learned is biased, just because it is.

                    I hope; therefore, I can live.

                    by tietack on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:14:55 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  OMG (0+ / 0-)

                      Rec'd for:

                      It's like saying that GM wanted to tell people in Spanish speaking countries that the Nova would not go.

                      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                      by wwmiv on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 12:24:33 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

              •  like you can't be racist if you have a black (11+ / 0-)

                friend? please. and the benghazi stuff is complete bullshit. and considering how they treated sotomayor at her hearings and the GOP's very clear track record of sexism and racism, you'd have to be pretty naive to think this has absolutely nothing to do with race or gender.

                •  Good Equivalency (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  askew, MichaelNY

                  With Sotomayor

                  ...and also gets to a point I was trying to make with him earlier elsewhere.

                  22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                  by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:38:06 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Just like everyone who voted for Alan West (7+ / 0-)

                Couldn't possibly have been a racist. Racism is an ingrained set of societally reinforced negative attitudes about another race, and all this talk about Rice being "incompetent" for using the CIA provided talking points and not tipping America's hand totally fits the bill.

              •  I agree that there are serious issues (0+ / 0-)

                But I can't tip "pulling the race card," even though I agree with you in substance. The Republicans deal in racism so much that they deserve it when people make unwarranted assumptions about their motives. Remember what happened to the boy who cried wolf. This is sort of the rough reverse of that: The white boys who made racist remarks, and now may have other motives. Fuck 'em.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 12:06:26 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  If the situation was identical (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jncca, MichaelNY

                  But she was white and called Steve I'm not sure they would behave much differently. This is all about gotcha politics and an excuse to attack the president.

                  "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                  by conspiracy on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 05:13:29 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

          •  The issue is about politics, but the way (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            they have attacked her is about her race and gender. They don't feel like they have to give her any respect. Do you remember that John McCain called her "not very smart". Rice is a Rhodes Scholar! I highly doubt had Rice been a white man, McCain would have said the same things.

            20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 04:37:04 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Academic qualifications don't prove intelligence (0+ / 0-)

              or, more to the point, wisdom. If it's true that Rice had seen intelligence pointing to terrorism before she gave her address about the incident at Benghazi at the UN, was it smart for her to say what she said?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 12:05:27 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  I think she could win a (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, itskevin, tietack, MichaelNY

        confirmation battle. Lieberman and Johnny Isakson said nice things about her.

        That at the very least suggests unanimous Dem support and the possibility of getting the 5 necessary GOP votes.

        Agree about Kerry staying in the Senate.

    •  I only want Rice because McCain/Graham will win (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      if she's not nominated.  Truth be told I think she's too much of an interventionist and stubborn idealist whereas Hagel is very wary about going to war/putting troops in harms way.   I think there is less chance of war with Iran if Hagel is SecDef.  

      Kerry and Hagel are redundant - only one is getting a cabinet spot.  And if Hagel is being vetted, it means he's got a spot as long as he passes the vetting - because you don't ask somebody to open up their lives otherwise.  Pres Obama knows Hagel enough to make a decision - the vetting is the last step rather than the first step.  

      Could Hagel be offered up as SecDef to try and get enough votes for Rice at the State?

      Hagel is a Scowcroft disciple, as is Obama.  As was Gates.  They all share the same worldview politically.  

      Hagel at State, Flournoy as SecDef would be interesting.  

      I know it can never happen but I like Huntsman on FP/International matters.  If he had remained Chinese Ambassador, I think he would have been at the top of my list for Sec. State.  

      If Rice goes to DNI, Donilon probably becomes Chief of Staff, Jack Lew moves to Treasury.  

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 06:34:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agree with you on most of that (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, MichaelNY

        I think Huntsman would have been good as SOS too. But after leaving for a presidential run, not sure Obama can trust him.

        I like Hagel too, I think he would be great as SecDef or SOS. I think it's possible he could be CIA director too.

        Lew almost definitely seems like he is moving to Treasury. I dont know about Donilon for COS. I would prefer Pete Rouse, a senior WH adviser, but I think he has declined the spot before. If Donilon were to become COS, then I think Flournoy could become NSA.

        I dont think not nominating Rice is a win for McCain/Graham. If Obama is perceived to get a win on the fiscal cliff, I think GOP and their base will be pissed and will almost definitely block the Rice nomination. If Obama can sidestep that with another nomination, I think it's a smart move. McCain/Graham might gloat, but I think as long as the president gets a good SOS, I dont see the issue.

    •  Horrible decision. We don't need to give (0+ / 0-)

      a Republican a high profile role. We need to be building the future Dem leaders. Obama has been dismal on party building. Very disappointed.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 08:32:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He'll make up for that (0+ / 0-)

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 08:36:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hagel is finished with elected office (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, mangusta

        He's disillusioned with the Republican Party
        and he knows a lot about foreign affairs

        I care more about getting really solid Secretaries.  Not ones who look the other way while employees bang hookers and snort cocaine off of toasters like W's Secretary of the Interior did.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 08:59:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  We saw with W how things can go deeply wrong (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          when you appoint people high level officials as political favors, thank-yous, whatever.  Brown, the Director of FEMA during Hurricane Katrina, was previously the President of the Arabian horse breeders association.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 09:01:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I disagree (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mangusta

        Hagel would be an excellent appointee in any foreign policy or security position.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 12:11:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Something I just realized (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BennyToothpick

    about the Tea Party's stupid idea that wouldn't actually work about denying the electoral college quorum.

    They actually have a legal way to hand the election to Romney. All they'd have to do was have their Republican trifectas in FL, PA, and OH legislatively assign Romney electors. They could also use Michigan and Virginia if they wanted, but wouldn't need those states.

  •  OC/national political shift from 08 (4+ / 0-)

    Did a little math and amazingly, Orange county shifted EXACTLY the same amount as the nation did as a whole from 2008 to 2012 when looking at the 2 party vote, which was 1.9%.

    I suppose this is good news, as some of my republican friends were hoping for Orange County to jump back in 2004 republican-land where Bush beat Kerry by whopping 21 points, which would have been a shift of about 7.3

    If this county stays as static in the future (which I really hope DOESN'T happen) it could be a bellwether for national political shifts.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

    by Daman09 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:41:41 PM PST

  •  Republicans can do well with Hispanics (9+ / 0-)

    .....If the little issue of party is not mentioned. Of course, that fails when Democrats catch on.

    Strickland had purchased Spanish-language newspaper and radio advertising, had visited with youngsters participating in the Oxnard Police Activities League and at the Colonia Boxing gym. He posted an upbeat YouTube video of those visits.

    In addition, Strickland sent out Spanish-language campaign mailers that touted endorsements from Port Hueneme City Councilwoman Sylvia Munoz Schnopp and Oxnard professional boxer David Rodela.

    The polling showed, this Democratic operative told me, that Strickland's efforts were beginning to pay off. But then Democrats responded with some Spanish-language mail of their own, telling Latino voters in Oxnard something about Strickland that he had neglected to mention himself: the fact that he was Republicano.

    With that, the gains Strickland had made evaporated, and Brownley carried Oxnard in a landslide, 66 percent to 34 percent, that provided the margin for her victory districtwide.

    Read more: http://www.vcstar.com/...
    - vcstar.com

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 05:46:18 PM PST

  •  With Obama and Romney meeting tomorrow (7+ / 0-)

    for lunch, The Atlantic has pictures of previous presidents/presidents-elect meeting the candidates they defeated.

    But the best picture really is the one of George McGovern reading about Nixon's resignation in the paper. A great "I told you so" look.

  •  Metro Atlanta over time (8+ / 0-)

    Here's a breakdown over the presidential vote in Metro Atlanta (using the 2000 version of the region).  The first number is the percentage of the vote won by the Democratic nominee for president.  This is the raw vote, not the two-party vote, so take that into account when looking at 1992 and 1996.  Note also that Obama eeked out a plurality in 2012.  He is the first Democrat to win Metro Atlanta since Carter.

    The number in parenthesis is the percentage of the electorate contained in Metro Atlanta.   Note that this number has increased with each election.

    Overall, this is promising to us.  This region continues to take up a larger share of the electorate, growing with each year.  It's already a sizeable majority.  In addition, it is moving in our direction politically.

    2012: 49.658% (57.153%)
    2008: 51.450% (57.018%)
    2004: 44.186% (55.966%)
    2000: 44.700% (54.505%)
    1996: 46.086% (53.123%)
    1992: 43.273% (51.757%)
    1988: 39.454% (49.957%)
    1984: 38.043% (47.482%)
    1980: 52.357% (45.311%)

  •  Obama gets 74.51% in OR-03 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, sapelcovits, bumiputera

    so 74.51% in OR-03
    58.96% in OR-01
    about 51.68% in OR-05

    won't know about OR-02 or OR-04 until somebody gets some Josephine County precinct data.

    At least for the first time ever they have a precinct map online!

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 08:22:53 PM PST

  •  Great news (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp, KingofSpades, MichaelNY, bumiputera

    Obama might get personally involved in retaking the House; also a list of House candidates that Israel has talked about for running again

    http://www.politico.com/...

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