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Happy Mondays -- "Step On"

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Comment Preferences

  •  My car window got smashed in today (vandalism). (13+ / 0-)

    Sorry if I'm only supposed to be posting election-related material.  I'm just shaken up and really pissed.

    Nothing in the car was taken. Some asshole just decided to take a hammer (or other implement) to my rear window.  Can't get it fixed until Monday.  Kinda ruined my weekend. . .

    Every honest communication poses a risk that we will hear something that could challenge or change us. -- Kenneth Cloke

    by GreenMtnState on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 04:20:53 PM PST

    •  That sucks (8+ / 0-)

      The door lock on my car has been acting finicky all of the sudden (sometimes won't unlock even when I insert and try to turn the key, sometimes won't even let the key in all the way), and apparently that can be caused by somebody trying to pick the lock with a screwdriver or something. So I kinda feel your pain on that. Not as bad as having a window broken, but it's always so frustrating when there's something wrong with your car and it's not even your fault.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:14:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Weekend Open (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Audrid, borodino21

      In Weekend Open threads, more topics are fair game than just elections specific. See the Thanksgiving Open thread for an example about warfare between Greece and Turkey that got way out of hand and obnoxious. ;P

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:18:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I didn't think it was very obnoxious. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, wu ming
        •  Just sort of silly (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          uclabruin18

          Greece really won't be declaring war on Turkey anytime soon.

          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:30:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  If Golden Dawn were to take over (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            all bets are off.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:04:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  well... (3+ / 0-)

              (1) it seems pretty unlikely Golden Dawn would take over since the far left appears to be much more powerful in Greece

              (2) even if they did the war would be pretty suicidal since Greece is very militarily inferior to Turkey and has fewer resources to draw upon in its current state. Even insane fascists don't start wars that are sure losers.

              26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:09:50 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  As I said in the previous thread (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                The Golden Dawn's number one goal if they were to take control (which is next to impossible) would be internal ethnic cleansing.

                Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:16:28 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Golden Dawn is an abomination but... (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  LordMike, MichaelNY, sacman701

                  It seem exceedingly unlikely they'd ever take over the country since even in very troubled times there seems to be a cap on their potential support as Greeks that are disenchanted with the system seem to be much more likely to support far left than far right parties.

                  The more likely threat would seem to be a SYRIZA win followed by a Euro exit followed by hyper inflation as the party attempted to reverse austerity by firing up the printing presses. Although a Euro exit followed by continued austerity and a recovery due to increasing competitveness is probably the best outcome, it seems unlikely that SYRIZA wouldn't fall prey to the temptation to pay for public services through money printing in the event of Euro exit.

                  In such a hyper-inflationary climate all bets really would be off. I'm still skeptical that Greeks would ever support a truly fascist party (an even further to the left party seems more likely) but in such a circumstance you'd never know what would happen.

                  26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                  by okiedem on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:21:23 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Golden Dawn's support (7+ / 0-)

                    at any level beyond a few hundred extremists is shocking to me and many others. Their rapid rise in support should give pause to anyone who assumes they have a hard ceiling. We've been through this before. Few took the Nazis seriously, either.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:34:23 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Golden Dawn's support (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    uclabruin18, MichaelNY

                    Golden Dawn is very different then it used to be, since troubled neighborhoods have sought out Golden Dawn (or similar paramilitary groups) for 'protection' (since most of the police in these areas are striking.) They have a very solid foothold in Greek society right now; SYRIZA's support, being the natural democratic extension of popular dissatisfaction, is much more ephemeral. Don't be expecting them to go away soon, and if Tsipras' government does not fulfill expectations, there might well be mass disenchantment with democratic institutions and Golden Dawn could come to power. I would put the odds of that at only around 5%, but don't scoff at the idea.

                    Besides, you can never rule out a coup, although I still think a military coup is more likely than a Golden Dawn coup. Actually, if Golden Dawn looked like it might come to power, the odds of  a military coup might go up (most of GD's allies are in the domestic police, not the military.)

                    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                    by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:37:01 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  "Further Left Party" (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Given what a joke the communist party in parliament is, there is no farther left party that could ascend to power in time. The closest thing would me ANTARSYA, a coalition like SYRIZA of more authoritarian far left groups, actual communists, and marxist-leninist groups, who might replace KKE on the parliamentary spectrum; but if they got into parliament at all, Golden Dawn will be a much bigger problem. For voters, Golden Dawn represents disenchantment with democracy more than anything on an ideological spectrum, so they shouldn't be viewed that way (not all of SYRIZA's support is ideological either... it's not applicable for what's going on.)

                    If SYRIZA doesn't succeed, it might not be about ideology anymore, it would be about overthrowing the established political system, and that's how Golden Dawn would come to power.

                    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                    by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:50:33 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

              •  The far left? (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                wu ming, Zack from the SFV

                Did the Communist Party do better than Golden Dawn? Are they likely to continue to do so in the next election? I don't consider Syriza and other social democratic anti-austerity parties "far left," and neither should you, in the context of Greek politics.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:32:29 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Far Left is obviously a relative term (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

                  but SYRIZA's (in English - the Coaltion of the Radical Left) history is definitely from the far-left.

                  To quote the wikipedia entry:

                  The coalition comprises a broad array of groups (thirteen in total) and independent politicians, including democratic socialists and green left groups, as well as Maoist, Trotskyist, and eurocommunist organisations. Its parliamentary leader is Alexis Tsipras, president of Synaspismós, the largest party in the coalition.
                  You could make a pretty strong argument that they've moderated quite a bit as they've gotten closer to power. Although they're certainly not radical marxists that are going to collectivize farms and throw the borgeoisie into reeducation camps, they're closest ideological comparisons are probably other democratic but very far left movements such as the German Left Party, the French Left Front, or the Italian Communist Refoundation Party.

                  26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                  by okiedem on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:41:17 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  KKE (The Stalinist Communist Party) is a joke (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wu ming, MichaelNY

                  They did worse than Golden Dawn in the last election, but they're not actually interested in being in power... it's a party that's ran by hobbyists, and talks like it's in the 1950s. They may not even reenter parliament; their support is hereditary and they shouldn't be used as a barometer for anything.

                  (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                  by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:43:58 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  That really does suck (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GreenMtnState

      Is there a reasonably safe place you can store your car until Monday?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:04:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NYC Precinct map (8+ / 0-)

    courtesy of the New York Time with a write up as well.

    Who knew the Trump Tower had its own precinct? It was one of the only ones in Manhattan were Romney got to 50%.

    NYT Map

    •  Thanks for posting (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, GloFish, R30A

      interesting how little changed since 2008. It thought that maybe the 90-10 (or 100-0) margins in the Orthodox neighborhoods might lessen a bit as people became more familiar with Obama but I suppose note. The seemingly very low turnout (with continue strong Republican percentages) on the South Shore seems to prove the thesis that Obama won Staten Island due to Sandy-induced turnout differentials between the South and North shore.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:06:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Aren't these communities driven by (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        what others in the community are doing and/or what their leaders say to do, far more than other groups? If that's the case, then it wouldn't surprise me to see the margins stay the same.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 09:30:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Looks like Romney (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, BeloitDem

      failed to capture a single precinct in New York County!

      Looking at the map there, it really is not hard to see how Turner won.

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 10:10:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Meet Sarah Pompei, Romney's "Baghdad Bob." (12+ / 0-)

    I found her twitter feed while lurking on a right wing blog:
    https://twitter.com/...

    So much to chuckle at, especially this gem:

    In CO, @MittRomney is on pace to win Adams Co. A county that hasn't been won by the GOP since 1984.
    Obama won Adams County this year....by a 15% spread (56%-41%).

    It also underlines the unreliability of anecdotal stuff on voting patterns.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 05:10:56 PM PST

  •  Finally saw Skyfall tonight, I liked it, but (6+ / 0-)

    I think I now realize why it and the last few Bonds bothered me so much: at some point in the last ten years or so, the people who make action movies decided that the audience wasn't allowed to relax anymore. Skyfall can't be enjoyed for its atmosphere in the same way an older Bond can. It's too intense.

    I left with a bit of a headache. Again.

    :/

    Still, it's worth seeing. It also acts as a kind of a re-reboot. it's probably the movie Casino Royale would have been if the producers had realized that they would eventually have to go on making Bond movies.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:03:57 PM PST

    •  That aside, for an action movie, it's also (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, James Allen

      really quite personal. I'm not giving anything away by saying that the villain doesn't have a nuclear weapon.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:10:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Really? I thought it was quite emotional (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, itskevin

      for a Bond movie. Although, yes, quite action packed.

      •  Well, yes, it was emotional (0+ / 0-)

        in the same way an intense conversation with a friend can be emotional. Remember, I'm not saying I didn't like it or appreciate it. I did (and I can count off some of the best moments, but I want to avoid spoilers).

        It just . . . didn't make me feel so good. Not because of what happened, but because of pacing. It's a fairly long movie where very little actually happens--but you can scarcely stop to take it in. And especially after the pre-title sequence, it didn't really feel like it was taking place in the Bond universe. Casino Royale had the same problem.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:28:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The Bond universe had to evolve. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, OGGoldy, askew

          During the Connery days, the Soviet bloc created a tangible threat complete with spy rings that we feared were stealing all our secrets for some horribly nefarious purpose.

          Now, in this new way of the world, the threat is less tangible, has fuzzier motivations, and hides more in the shadows.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:37:00 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't see how the Soviet Union has any relevance (0+ / 0-)

            Even during the cold war, the Bond films took care not to build the narrative around east vs. west. Furthermore, the Brosnan Bonds were all made after the fall of communism in europe (Goldeneye confronted this directly). My personal favorite of that batch is Tomorrow Never Dies.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:41:23 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I was referring more to the mentality (0+ / 0-)

              of villains with infinite resources and no redeemable traits working around the clock to commit evil.  As for east v. west, what do you think Dr. No (Chinese national Dr. Julius No was out to destroy the U.S. Mercury satellite program and before that, he worked with the Soviets to sabotage U.S. missile tests) and From Russia with Love were thematically about?

              Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

              by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:53:03 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Ian Fleming conceived the organization SPECTRE (0+ / 0-)

                to make his novels appear apolitical, but it's still there if you know where to look.

                Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:54:18 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Also, You Only Live Twice played up (0+ / 0-)

                the constant threat of nuclear war and how easy it would be to spark one.

                Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:55:59 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I'm too tired to argue with you about this, (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades

                  but I think your examples make my point. Blofeld and SPECTRE have been gone since before we were born. And while the Soviets often played a role in the plot, they were always replaceable.

                  2001 called: it wants its insight about "A New Kind of War" back.

                  Ok, so I read the polls.

                  by andgarden on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 07:06:32 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Precisely. (0+ / 0-)

                    The new Bond lives in the post-9/11 mindset (though slightly less black-and-white and doctrinal) whereas Connery era Bond was in the Cold War mindset.

                    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                    by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 07:33:18 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

        •  I thought it was taking place in the Bond universe (0+ / 0-)

          on a day off (or on what was going to be a day off), which I thought was kind of interesting.

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:20:20 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thing is, "bond goes rogue" has been done before (0+ / 0-)

            I don't know about you, but I think Licence to Kill is one of the worst entries of the series (it looks exactly like what it was: an 80s revenge flick shot on the cheap in Mexico). It pales in comparison to The Living Daylights (a favorite of mine).

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:07:21 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm not a Bond junkie (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              andgarden, KingofSpades

              and I don't think I've seen any of those.  But the direction 'Skyfall" took--although the script had plenty of problems--felt fresh to my ill-educated eyes.  They really do need some new writers, though.  Before I saw "Skyfall" I had looked up the cast and crew and thought "great cast, great director, great composer, great cinematographer--and two of the three writers are the same damn people who wrote the last four or five of these things".  And, coincidentally or not, I liked the acting, music, direction, and cinematography more than the script.

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 12:28:02 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Sadly, I am a bit of a junkie (0+ / 0-)

                I've seen most all of them multiple times. From the 80s and before, I've probably watched the movies once every couple of years since I was 10 or so. One of the things you notice is that there is tremendous continuity in creative and technical talent over the years. I like "fresh" feeling films (though Skyfall was derivative in a variety of ways). The problem is that Bond, when done well, is like a comfortable, familiar, broken-in shoe. But the producers don't like to make the films that way anymore. (This is recent: Tomorrow Never Dies, my favorite of the Pierce Brosnan run, fit the mold).  

                I thought the cinematography was pretty good in Skyfall (though perhaps a bit dark, which is in vogue these days), but the music was a real letdown. It felt generic. David Arnold, who has scored the recent Bonds quite well, was dropped for Sam Mendes's guy, Thomas Newman.

                Ok, so I read the polls.

                by andgarden on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 12:54:41 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I hated TND as much as Die Another Day (0+ / 0-)

                  I thought GoldenEye and The World Is Not Enough were by far the most superior Brosnan outings.

                  "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                  by conspiracy on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 02:20:39 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Well, you obviously can't please everyone! (0+ / 0-)

                    I was not a fan of DAD, FWIW.

                    TWINE was pretty good (especially the pre-title sequence). GoldenEye was also a solid entry (the score was pretty awful, though).

                    Ok, so I read the polls.

                    by andgarden on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 02:25:05 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Exactly (0+ / 0-)

                      Same point I was trying to make. I agree with you (and most everybody) that QoS sucked big time.

                      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                      by conspiracy on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 02:26:16 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I actually liked it, but still think it sucked. (0+ / 0-)

                        On the other hand, I have no need to watch Die Another Day.

                        Tomorrow Never Dies and The World is Not Enough (love the Shirley Manson theme) were okay, but Goldeneye is my favorite Brosnan.

                        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                        by James Allen on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 02:43:32 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed, had some strong emotional content. (0+ / 0-)

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:34:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Casino Royale had a classic Bond feel because (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      it was actually based on an Ian Fleming novel (of the same name and it was Fleming's first 007 novel).

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:31:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Trawling the reviews, I find one I basically agree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      with:

      By this point, rejecting the Bond formula has become a cliché itself. It’s been three movies, you can’t still play the “This is the NEW Bond” card . . . . It might not be such a bad thing to exercise some aspects of consistency in the Bond movies. Play with it but don’t be different just because you think you’re cooler than the 22 other movies that came before you. Can we please just have a Bond movie again?
      link.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:46:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I liked it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Although I think that you're confusing when Skyfall and Casino Royale were set. Skyfall was clearly set much later in James Bind's "life" than the young up-and-coming spy that was in Casino Royale.

  •  its money (0+ / 0-)

    they had to have villians that werent east and west because they had to market the movie to both east and west.

    •  I don't think they were selling a lot of tickets (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      andgarden, Audrid, LordMike, SaoMagnifico

      in the Soviet Union and other Eastern Bloc countries.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 07:49:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  perhaps for a different reason (0+ / 0-)

      if they made a campy, more traditional Bond movie, it wouldn't have nearly the audience.  I know I probably wouldn't go see one.  I stopped finding them entertaining when I stopped being a teenager.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 04:40:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ramblings after yesterday's meltdown. (6+ / 0-)

    I'm so afraid of doing badly in university more because it represents my dream of moving to a Western country. It frustrates me that I can't tell mom that this is the real reason why I'm so worried, over and above my general GAD-induced worry.

    All of this could have been avoided if I weren't gay. Sigh. These open threads are becoming my therapy sessions.

    On a side note, apropos of the Thanksgiving open thread, mom dragged me clothes shopping today. I guess it was a bit more fun than usual.

  •  IL-2 SPECIAL (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Quite a number of names that have been floated for the IL-2 special election...Toi Hutchinson is seriously considering a run, Debbie Halvorson has been named has been named as a potential candidate, David Miller, Robin Kelly, Anthony Beale, Emil Jones III, Todd Stroger, Mel Reynolds, and many, many others have been named as potential candidates.

    Also, some members of Chicago's Democratic establishment are reportedly telling prospective candidates to "cool their jets" so that Rahm Emaunel can hand-pick someone for that seat. More than likely, there will be 10-12 candidates if not more than that who will run in the Democratic special primary, so I'm not sure why Rahm is even bothering trying to hand-pick someone and then try to clear the primary field for his candidate. Clearing the Democratic primary field is going to be virtually impossible.

    Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:03:18 AM PST

  •  The Italian center-left votes today! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    The center-left coalition is holding a primary today; if no one candidate breaks 50% a runoff will be held in a week on December 2. Italy has many political parties, but elections are generally fought between broad center-left and center-right coalitions.

    More than 1.3M people have voter already, and total turnout is expected to exceed 4M.

    The 2012 coalition is comprised of:

    ● The center-left Democratic Party (PD), the more moderate of the two heirs to the old PCI, and the largest party in the coalition. The party is the overall largest party in polling, but is still down over 7% from their 2008 result, which was itself considered bad! It has struggled in opposition, it's problem is its hoary, un-charismatic leaders, but also -- because of its ideologically disparate nature as a big tent anti-Berlusconi coalition -- there is a perception that the party lacks ideas, or even a coherent platform (the PD promises vaguely to "ease" Monti's austerity measures.)

    ● Italy of Values (IdV), an ideologically broad anti-corruption party founded as the political vehicle of a flamboyant prosecutor named Antonio Di Pietro. Recently IdV has recently aligned itself with many causes on the far-left.

    ● The leftist Left-Ecology-Freedom (SEL), a post-communist and socialist party that was formed out of several smaller parties. It is the farthest left party in the center-left coalition. SEL is led by Nichi Vendola, a gay post-communist and president of Apulia, a very religious and conservative region which had never previously elected a center-left president. He was elected in 2005 in a major upset, and holds the office on his efforts to combat mob crime, which was a major problem in the region prior to his tenure. He is well liked across the political spectrum for his self-efacing nature and being a generally good guy. SEL and IdV have been electoral partners in many regions.

    In the primary, there are three major candidates to lead the center-left:

    ● Pier Luigi Bersani (PD): the current leader of the PD, and longtime government apparatchik. Bersani is a symbol of the PD's problems; another old, male, ex-PCI who doesn't seem to stand for anything besides collecting another paycheck from the government. He started with a big lead, but the race has narrowed significantly.

    ● Matteo Renzi (PD): the young (39 yo) Mayor of Florence and a "centrist" who supports Monti's government. His nickname in the media is "The Scrapper" because of his ambitions to reform the party and throw out the deadwood. He has emerged as Bersani's primary rival.

    ● Nichi Vendola (SEL): a gay post-communist who is the leader of SEL (the most left-wing party in the coalition.) Vendola is a celebrity for his success in fighting mob crime in Apulia, but he was delayed from starting his campaign by an investigation into his hiring practices as president (he was found innocent.) He just recently began actively campaigning.

    Regardless of who wins the primary, the center-left coalition is the heavy favorite going into 2013. (Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/... )

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:08:07 AM PST

    •  So is Italy tired of Berlesconi yet? (0+ / 0-)

      I gather he's going to run until he becomes the Italian Stassen (, Harold).

      I hope; therefore, I can live.

      by tietack on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:25:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Berlusconi (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, James Allen, MichaelNY

        Berlusconi is gone, and the chances of a comeback look slim. He's been out of politics for over a year after he was forced to resign because of his run-ins with the law, and Italy has been governed since 2011 by Mario Monti, a technocrat running an austerity government with the lukewarm support of both the center-left and the center-right while everyone waits for the election.

        Berlusconi said he wouldn't run again (although he later semi-backtracked, to leave the door open) but it doesn't really matter, since most of the center-right hopes that Monti, who had professed a lack of interest in electoral politics, would change course and be their leader -- and he recently began signaling interest.

        So, yes, I think Italy may finally be rid of Berlusconi. For now.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:34:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  FWIW, I am referring to recent reports (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          such as http://www.abc.net.au/...

          There is growing speculation in Italy that Mr Berlusconi may form his own breakaway party.

          In October, the three-time premier announced he would not run in next year's elections but did not say he was withdrawing completely from political life.

          Asked by reporters on Saturday whether he was considering "returning to the playing field", Mr Berlusconi said: "I am thinking about it."

          Not that I think he has much of a chance, but it could split the right wing vote.

          I hope; therefore, I can live.

          by tietack on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:40:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, that would be a disaster. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, tietack, MichaelNY

            The center-right coalition is in such sad shape, they might actually let him join and he could scuttle in as a minor party; but he's not the sort of person who would do well as a junior partner, especially not propping up someone low-key like Monti. If he ran outside the center-right coalition, I wonder if he could even make it into parliament.

            Either way, they're rid of him as prime minister.

            (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

            by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:47:45 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  that has the potential (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack, MichaelNY

            to be hilarious.  He reminds me of a certain former congressman from Ohio.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 09:32:49 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Is there much of a further left opposition (0+ / 0-)

      to the government's austerity policies? How much has the austerity gone after the wealthiest, as opposed to the masses?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 02:17:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Your first question is pointless and subjective (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        To your second question, within the center-left coalition, SEL and Vendola are outspoken against Monti's government, and are playing the classic hand of a minor fringe party in a parliamentary system of hopefully becoming the margin for passing bills and trying to move the coalition left (basically what the PRC used to do.)

        Outside of the center-left coalition there is the Communist Refoundation Party (PRC), who used to participate in the center-left coalition but left in '08 to start a far-left coalition (The Left-The Rainbow) but the coalition was fraught by infighting and none of the parties involved entered parliament. This time the PRC is going it alone, but their odds of entering parliament look slim right now.

        Whether they do probably depends on how Bersani positions himself, and if Grillo can form a cogent political platform, hold together his disparate coalition, and show he's interested in seriously participating in the political process (highly unlikely in my view.)

        But don't count them out yet.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 02:45:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It looks to me like the question you didn't like (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          was my second one. It should be easy to answer the question of whether taxes were raised on the wealthiest more than everyone else, for example, but if you don't feel like answering it, just say that, and don't claim that my question is "pointless," which is just rude.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 02:54:03 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  By the way, sorry if I'm being prickly (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            or misunderstanding. It wouldn't be the first time, and it's easy to do online.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 03:28:47 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, pardon, I meant your second question (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            What I meant was that I can't imagine you meant total net revenue, so I don't think it's an easy question to answer at all. The very question of which taxes effect which income brackets to what extent is disputable, so in many ways it would only be my subjective opinion, and considering I'm out of the ideological mainstream of this site, I'd rather not comment about 'policy.'

            And I don't think you were snippy at all, if anything, I think I was snippy, in retrospect.

            (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

            by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 04:53:06 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  WA-Gov: How R outreach to Hispanics, Asians (10+ / 0-)

    did not work, ref http://www.seattlepi.com/...

    Republicans had fielded one of their strongest gubernatorial candidates in McKenna for a generation. He had branded himself as a moderate and had been well liked — and reelected twice — as attorney general.

    McKenna made it a point to campaign hard among minority groups, dancing "Gangnam Style" at a Washington State Korean Association forum and speaking a full introduction in Spanish at a Yakima debate.

    But he also focused on issues affecting those groups. He spoke of his work to crack down on fraud among the so-called "notarios" who pose as immigration agents in the Latino community. He ran radio ads in Spanish and recruited Latino and Asian field organizers.

    Despite this outreach, issue focus, and "moderation", the article suggests that Latinos and Asians broke for Inslee 3:1.

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 09:03:02 AM PST

    •  I'm tempted to think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      of the process of appealing to nonwhites as ongoing, especially for Republicans and especially in states where the Democratic party is strong. That's kind of how I viewed 2000 and 2004, with the first being the downpayment and the second being the start of the process where they actually vote for Republicans in greater numbers. Then again, even if that's true, the specific processes used in 2004--gay marriage ban amendments--might skew the numbers.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 09:38:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Joining the lawsuit against the ACA (8+ / 0-)

      Probably didn't help.

    •  Also, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      what's the context for how well Democrats running statewide but not for federal postions usually do? Perhaps McKenna actually did better than Republicans usually do without doing good enough.

      The article references Bush's solid performance with the group, but DCCyclone said yesterday that even Bush's people in 2004 were skeptical of the exit polling. If he's correct, then McKenna didn't necessarily do all that badly and, relatively speaking, might gave done okay.

      Also still, this was amusing:

      Democrats aren't doing too well among Latinos, either, Barreto surmised. Inslee may have been helped more by Obama's coattails than his direct campaigning.

      He points to the 15th legislative district — the state's first Latino majority district. The democratic candidate this year, a college student, was soundly defeated.

      "If the Democrats would put some serious effort on voter registration, they could easily get a Democratic victory in that seat," he said.

      Our candidate in the 15th graduated high school three years ago, when the incumbent was first appointed, so this seems like a silly statement.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 09:48:59 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  it's a district in eastern (well, central) WA (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        in the Yamika area, where whites are pretty damned conservative, and a high percentage of the Hispanics are either unregistered or unregisterable, so it's not really VRA material, because the Hispanic community there can't really elect someone to represent them.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:47:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Which would make this guy's (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          claim even sillier, then.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:02:00 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  If you believe the exit polls (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, KingTag, bjssp, MichaelNY, itskevin

      Inslee and McKenna split white voters 50/50, which means Inslee would have only won nonwhite voters by about 55-45. Are there any precincts in the Seattle area that are overwhelmingly nonwhite? That's probably the only way to get a somewhat clear picture of how they voted.

      •  some area heavily Asian. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, MichaelNY

        Particularly, some areas east of I-5 and north of MLK, south of I-90.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:17:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Did you mean west of MLK? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          It's a north/south blvd in Seattle.

          I hope; therefore, I can live.

          by tietack on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 04:50:19 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  no, I meant further south near Skyway (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack

            and Renton, where for a bit MLK Jr. Way travels the other way, until it meets with Rainier Ave.

            The dropoff isn't exactly there, but around there the precincts stop being >30% Asian American.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 05:13:00 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Southwest (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, Christopher Walker

    Photobucket
    Arizona
    128 districts

    75 white majority Republican districts
    1 Hispanic majority Republican district (Yuma)
    2 mixed Republican districts (Yuma, Phoenix/Glendale)

    15 white majority Democratic districts
    24 Hispanic majority Democratic districts
    7 mixed Democratic districts
    4 Native American majority Democratic districts

    The white Democratic districts (colored light blue) are confined to narrow areas of Phoenix, Tempe & the west ends of Chandler and Mesa, Tucson, plus a couple big districts in Flagstaff and its environs.  The mixed (colored purple, no particular racial majority) Democratic districts are generally a mix of Hispanics and whites in Tucson and Phoenix, but one in the south of the state is plurality Native American, and is less than 24% white in total population because of a sizable Hispanic population, too.  Hispanic Democratic districts (green) are in Phoenix metro, Yuma, Tucson, and the southeast.  The Native American majority districts (dark blue) are in the east and northeast, and one or two are quite packed, so they could probably be unpacked a bit, but due to the limitations of DRA I packed them.

    I could have done another Hispanic Democratic district in Yuma and one less Republican district, but the size and shape of the precincts there made it too difficult.  The Hispanic Republican district is yellow, the mixed Republican districts are orange.  This map is quite friendly to Republicans, but I tried, as the commission seemed to, to make as many Democratic districts as possible without avoiding any chances to make minority-favored districts.  Unfortunately there just aren't much.

    Photobucket

    Photobucket

    Nevada
    55 districts

    17 white majority Republican districts
    15 white majority Democratic districts
    5 Hispanic majority Democratic districts
    18 mixed Democratic districts

    This is a Democratic gerrymander, no question.  There are a good number of districts that I counted as Republican (6) which are very swingy, much moreso than the Democrats.

    Unable to make a minority majority district in Reno, instead I gerrymandered the heck out of it, coming out with 6 districts where the Dem average was at least 51.2%, at least 56.2% Obama, and a few were more in the 60+% range.  All white majority, of course, though some narrowly.

    The majority of districts are in Clark County (of course) and all the remaining interesting ones are, too.  This is where all 23 of the minority majority districts are, including all 5 of the Hispanic majority districts, which are colored green, and are in the northeast of the Vegas area.  Most of the rest of the Vegas area is mixed Democratic, with the white Democratic and couple white Republican districts on the south and west peripheries.

    Photobucket
    New Mexico
    42 districts

    9 white majority Republican districts
    4 mixed (Hispanic plurality) Republican districts
    3 white majority Democratic districts
    19 Hispanic majority Democratic districts
    4 Native American majority Democratic districts
    3 mixed Democratic districts

    I did not stick closely to wwmiv's prescription for drawing Hispanic districts (colored green) at 65% or above here to make them safe in all cases, but aside from perhaps one or two, they are all safely Democratic districts, and I was betting that with that in mind, and especially since few are just around 50% Hispanic, but rather are greater,  most would as a rule elect Hispanic Democrats.  For example, of the 5 Hispanic majority districts in the south, only one is below 55% Hispanic by voting age population, and only one (and not the same) is as low as 56.3% Obama and 53.8% Democratic average.  All three mixed districts (purple) are in Albuquerque.  There's one white Democratic district there, one based in Santa Fe & Los Alamos, and one that stretches to take in the areas south and east of Santa Fe, and some patches of eastern Bernalillio County.

    Photobucket
    Colorado
    101 districts

    44 white Republican districts
    40 white majority Democratic districts
    8 Hispanic majority Democratic districts
    9 mixed Democratic districts

    Poor folks in district 69, the island of Republicans in a band of Democratic districts that stretches from the New Mexico border to the Wyoming border, there in Jefferson County.  Obama lost the district by just 55 votes.

    Colorado's Democratic districts are the whitest of the bunch, particularly outside of the Denver area, where there's just one Hispanic majority district in Pueblo, and three mixed districts in Pueblo, Colorado Springs, and one stretching from Las Animas to Rio Grande County, in the far south.  Oh, and a hard to spot mixed district (Hispanic plurality) in Greeley, which judging from its Obama number is probably about D+6.

    Dems could play in a few of the districts I've labeled as Republican where Obama won, but the Dem average was short of me being able to label it as Dem.  These include a couple in the Denver suburbs and one in Colorado Springs.  If Obama did not perform better than his national average, and the Dem average was below 50%, I tended to say those were Republican districts in states like these.

    Aside: I really like that under the hypothetical amendment, cities of 40-50k would be able to have their own districts, and in really rural areas cities of just a few thousand, or even less than one thousand, might be the biggest cities in a district.  In really large cities, it would mean that neighborhoods would get their own districts.  Representation would be much more local.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 09:22:52 AM PST

  •  So did Dave Wasserman stop tracking the pop vote? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Or has literally no jurisdiction reported new numbers since thursday?

  •  Senate 2014: Potential Dem retirements (5+ / 0-)

    According to The Hill, the mostly likely retirements that Dems worry about right now are: Rockefeller, Johnson, Lautenberg, Harkin and Levin.

    Reading more into the article, Rockefeller seems to be most likely to retire, while Johnson, Levin, Launtenberg seem like they will run again.

    We'd hold Lautenberg's seat if he did retire. Harkin and Levin would be more difficult but we could hold those seats. It would be hard to see Dems holding open seats in SD and WV. Even if Rockefeller runs, it could be a difficult hold.  

    link.

    •  Ugh. Lautenberg needs to retire (4+ / 0-)

      I don't want Christe appointing someone to this seat.

      •  If he ran for the seat again (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        because of the problems with Torricelli but also because he was kind of bored, why doesn't Obama appoint him to the Cabinet? He's got a background in business, so perhaps Commerce, assuming it's still there, or some new council on job creation, would be good. As jj32 said, we should be able to hold this seat, so it'd be like killing two birds with one stone.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 12:39:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Seems like we would be better off (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jj32

      if Rockefeller and Lautenberg retired, given Rockefeller's comments about coal and the possibility of Lautenberg being unable to serve out his next term.  And I don't think Johnson would be a favorite over Rounds, although I would much rather he ran again.  Harkin and Levin are key.   Would feel much better about those seats if they ran.  PPP showed Harkin 48-40 and Levin 50-38 over Generic R.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 02:10:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Lautenberg especially. (6+ / 0-)

        He needs to go back to the retirement that Torricelli robbed him of.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 02:13:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  If Rockefeller retires, the seat (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        is almost certainly in greater danger. Republicans made very big inroads in 2008, even taking one statewide office, and Democrats don't have a natural successor like Manchin this time. Rockefeller being a five-term incumbent will give him an advantage against any Republican except maybe Shelley Moore Capito, who as I've said before I think is a bit of a paper tiger.

        WV Democrats will benefit from it not being a presidential year though.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 04:23:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Shit, I meant 2012 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, lordpet8

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 04:23:59 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I wonder if Capito will run if Rockefeller announces for re-election. She could definitely win, but it might be a more difficult race.

          •  I disagree. (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, lordpet8, BeloitDem, jncca

            PPP had the race at 48-44 Moore Capito.  And that was before Rockefeller's politically suicidal comments about the coal industry.  If PPP is anywhere near accurate, the seat is in bad, bad shape with Rockefeller.  I would rather see someone else to take a shot at it.  The outlook is bleak for the Dems in this seat either way.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

            by spiderdem on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:22:53 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  yeah (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              And just after I wrote that, I see below that Capito will enter the race.

              I think you may be right. Natalie Tennant may be a stronger candidate. There will be plenty of polling here so I guess we'll see how things shape up in a few months.

              •  Tennant's statewide victory (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jj32, MichaelNY

                was stronger than Manchin's, and not over a total chump - sitting State Delegate.  Unfortunately, Capito's was even more impressive.

                White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                by spiderdem on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:44:53 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  If she runs (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  I expect the R's to blast her for being a pro-choice candidate in a largely pro-life state.
                  Don't get me wrong I love how she's the only Pro-choice statewide candidate, but I'm not sure if she will be able to win a federal race in the state

                  "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

                  by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:05:37 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  though after reading more (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Republican's will neuter the issue considering Capito is also somewhat Pro-choice, which would make a for an interesting mash-up in a conservative state like WV.

                    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

                    by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:46:19 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I thought you meant in their primaries. n/t (0+ / 0-)

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:08:35 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  oh yes I completely forgot about that (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        I guess I'm getting way ahead of things.

                        Gosh I was hoping we could bask in a little R&R before we get wrapped up in 2014 races but I guess that never happens anymore.

                        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

                        by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:15:19 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

            •  Wasn't that done after he said that? (0+ / 0-)

              Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

              by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:49:27 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  It may be in "bad shape" with Rockefeller (0+ / 0-)

              It just feel it would be in even worse shape if he retired. I don't see any big name Dems who could hold onto this seat

              "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

              by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:04:02 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Why is that? (0+ / 0-)

                Why do you think Tennant wouldn't be any good, for example? WV has a deep Democratic bench.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:13:26 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I'm just skeptical on statewide vs federal races (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, HoosierD42

                  I just don't see any other Manchin-like super stars left in the state. I was also disappointed in Tomblin's meh showing this cycle too, it looked like underperformed polling for the general election.

                  The CW I'm hearing is that Rockefeller is done because he dissed the coal industry.
                  (I asked this question down thread also)
                  So my question is Tennant as cozy with a coal industry as Manchin is to make up for that?

                  From what other folks are saying they best shot we have is to run a good, well known conservadem to hold on here. If not Rockefeller may just be the next best thing as he can at least self fund if he needs to.

                  I guess I just don't know enough of  about Natalie Tennant to make a clear judgement just yet.

                  if so then I can see how she could do better than Rockefeller

                  "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

                  by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:53:19 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  West Virginia hasn't elected a republican senator (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      since 1942.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:04:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I love that last line about (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Ben Nelson's internal poll, I still think he would have lost had he run for reelection.

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:01:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  First IT center-left coalition primary exit poll (0+ / 0-)

    Piepoli for Rainews24:

    Bersani - 44%
    Renzi - 36%
    Vendola - 16%
    >2.5M voters have voted so far.

    There have also been several lower level individual region and municipal exit polls; in general they look significantly better for Vendola and would suggest he's running around even with Renzi with them both in the high 20s, although it's hard to say. Either way, there's no doubt Bersani is cruising into first with just under 50% and looks well poised for the runoff.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 12:11:04 PM PST

    •  Second exit poll (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Sky TV:

      Bersani 43-47%
      Renzi 30-34%
      Vendola 16-20%

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 12:45:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Renzi internal exit poll (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Renzi's campaign is claiming their internal exit poll has Bersani leading Renzi 44-40. No other information was given. When you're leaking exit polls that have you losing...

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 01:28:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Dem share of white vote outside south, '04 vs. '12 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, tietack, lordpet8, bumiputera

    State   Kerry % of whites-Obama % of whites

    Arizona 41-32
    California 47-45
    Colorado 42-44
    Connecticut 51-51
    Illinois 48-46
    Indiana 34-38
    Iowa 49-51
    Kansas 34-33
    Maine 53-57
    Maryland 43-43
    Massachusetts 59-57
    Michigan 44-44
    Minnesota 50-48
    Montana 39-38
    Nevada 43-43
    New Hampshire 50-51
    New Jersey 46-43
    New Mexico 43-41
    New York 49-49
    Ohio 44-41
    Oregon 50-54
    Pennsylvania 45-42
    Vermont 58-66
    Washington 52-53
    Wisconsin 47-48

    Positive trend in Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin. Negative trend in California, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania.

    So whites voted more Dem this year in New England, the Upper Midwest, the Pacific Northwest, and Colorado. They voted less Dem in the Mid-Atlantic, Lower Midwest, and the Southwest.

    Simple average of all those states = 0.1% worse for Obama '12 than Kerry among non-southern whites (though would probably be a bit worse if you weighted for population).

    At any rate, my guess is that what these numbers mostly reflect are the relative popularity of Obama and Kerry (and of Bush and Romney) in different regions of the country.

    But as for the future prospects of the republicans gaining in the electoral college by winning over more whites, there is exactly ONE blue state where they seem to have a positive trend among whites and that they might have a reasonable chance of winning sometime soon: Pennsylvania. In the other light blue states - NH, MI, WI, MN, IA, CO, NV, OR - whites are not trending toward republicans at all. To the extent that republicans are winning over whites, it's in non-competitive southern states and adjacent areas of the midwest (e.g., Ohio) which are already to the right of the electoral tipping point.

    •  The Post on a similar subject (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, KingofSpades, lordpet8

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 02:32:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Changes in most of the states look trivial (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jncca

      Exceptions: AZ on the negative side

      VT on the positive side (and possibly OR, IN).

      I don't see Alaska or Hawaii on the list. I'd fully expect Hawaii to have as much of a D gain in the white vote as Vermont.

      I hope; therefore, I can live.

      by tietack on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:36:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  AZ's exit polls can't be right (0+ / 0-)

        Obama got almost exactly the same share of the total vote that Kerry got. There is no way that his share was 9 points lower among white voters, who could not have been that smaller a share of the vote than in 2004.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:07:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Post-Brewer, I can believe it (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          ref http://elections.nytimes.com/...

          White share of vote: from 79 to 73 %
          Hispanic share: from 12 to 19%

          President Obama's share of the Hispanic vote was 77% --
          Kerry's was 56%

          I hope; therefore, I can live.

          by tietack on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:13:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  it's still farfetched (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY

            For that 66-32 spread among whites to be accurate, Obama would have had to win the nonwhite vote 80-18. I don't think that's possible in a state where only 15% of the nonwhite vote is black.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:18:01 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't think so (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              First, no group has been demonized more in any single state than Hispanics in Arizona.

              Second, a 1% error in the white vote would lead to a 5% error in the non-white vote. (which is another way of showing the fallacy of cross-tabs)

              I hope; therefore, I can live.

              by tietack on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 05:21:59 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  What's especially strange about AZ (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          is that it dropped from 40 to 32 from '08 to '12, despite McCain's presence on the ticket in '08. Either totally wonky exit polls or a terrible trend in that state, and one which I don't really understand. This isn't WV or AR - it's a mostly urban state with a lot of transplants and tech companies and so forth. There's just nowhere else in the country outside of traditionally Dem Appalachia where whites are trending R at that rate - hardly anywhere they're trending R at all, for that matter.

          •  well there are some Pinto Dems still (0+ / 0-)

            In that respect, AZ is more similar to Appalachia than almost any non-Appalachian state.

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 04:13:28 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Maine (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Maine looks nontrivial.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:40:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  i would have thought CA dems would have trended (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      more to the dems. I had always been under the assumption that there are a lot more white conservatives then white liberals that are leaving the state.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:07:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think there's much of a trend (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        to be found between two elections. That's not to say we shouldn't look at it, only that it doesn't reveal all that much.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:12:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  CA is another state where I'm a little skeptical (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, MichaelNY

        of the exit polls. And to the extent that they're accurate, I'm guessing it's candidate effects (maybe Romney goes over better with LA/Orange/SD county indies and republicans than Bush did?).

        At any rate, the state as a whole is clearly trending and safely Dem, so it's a little academic.

      •  edit: california whites (0+ / 0-)

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:22:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Can someone point me to where I can find (0+ / 0-)

    a list showing which states certify their vote when?  I'd like to start updating the county level averages by dropping 2004 and adding 2012.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 01:51:58 PM PST

  •  LeftyBlogs (0+ / 0-)

    Anyone know what happened to the LeftyBlogs link?  It seemed to disappear right about election day.  Here is a diary from DailyKos talking about it since a number of posters have reacted to previous attempts to get an answer with huge question marks.

    link to DKos diary about LeftyBlogs: http://www.dailykos.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 02:18:11 PM PST

  •  WV-SEN: Capito In (6+ / 0-)

    Yikes, bad news for us, Capito is running as of tomorrow.

    Can we hold this with Tennant or Thompson?  

    31/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

    by Socks The Cat on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:10:43 PM PST

    •  yikes that is bad (4+ / 0-)

      the good news is that we at least have a lot of ground to give. We'll still have to run a pretty solid campaign all around to keep the senate though.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:13:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  link (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      here.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:23:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Would have been shocked (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, jncca

      if she didn't get in.

      Tennant looks like the Dems' best hope by the numbers.  She beat a Republican state delegate 62-37, the second best performance in the state.  Unfortunately, the best performance by far was Moore Capito's.  She won 70-30 in her district, which is staggering given the high number of registered Democrats who live in the district.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:29:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  honestly, I'm very surprised (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

        Considering there was an exlipcit carveout for her in the special election law in 2010, and she flirted with it for a time before chickening out, I assumed she would spend the rest of her career in the House. Hell, if she is "to announce tomorrow" she may still back out.

        But I don't think this is a death sentence for the seat. Jay Rockefeller is an institution in the state, much moreso than the Moore name, which hasn't held a statewide office since 1989.

        But if Rockefeller chooses to retire in the face of this, I think our best candidates are Tennant and Carte Goodwin, the interim senator. Capito will have to refer to him as "Senator" in the debates ;)

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:43:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Carte Goodwin (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera, jncca

          Would be an awful candidate. I don't think he's ever run for anything in his life, and a U.S. Senate race is not the time to learn how to be a candidate. That would backfire in a tremendous fashion for our side.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:49:05 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That doesn't guarantee...anything (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

            He could be a stupendous candidate for all we know. And Manchin appointed him, specifically, to Byrd's seat for a reason, when he could have chosen from any number of political allies.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:53:29 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Schumer should be on the phone with Tennant.. (5+ / 0-)

      ...like right now.

      But honestly, I'm kinda getting a Rick Berg feeling around all this.  She really might just be a paper tiger.  

      Also, a career Washington politician (with a criminal ex-governor for a father) might not go over all that well if the Democrats run this campaign right.  

      •  Her 70%+ domination (8+ / 0-)

        of a district full of registered Democrats the last two cycles, and PPP's poll showing her up 48-44 on five-term incumbent Rockefeller, suggest that she is quite a lot more than a paper tiger.  We should be realistic about this one.  Never impossible for a ConservaDem in WV, but this is Moore Capito's to lose.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:32:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think Rockefeller is even money (6+ / 0-)

          if he runs, at this point.  I don't count that as a 100% guaranteed prediction, though.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:34:44 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Capito ran against a no-name with no money (6+ / 0-)

          Judging by the guy's website, he didn't seem interested in winning either.  

          70-30 is impressive but I don't really see the gloom and doom.  She's been held to better margins before.  

          "Registered Democrats" is starting to mean less and less in West Virginia nowadays;  look how Rahall did in the mega-super-Dem registration stronghold on WV-03.  And Capito represents the traditional Republican areas of WV as well, if I'm not mistaken.  

          One poll doesn't make this "her race to lose".  

        •  Come on...it's hers to lose? (0+ / 0-)

          There's been, what, one poll for an election that is two years away? I'll admit that he could have the fight of his life on his hands, but it's a little absurd to sugest that she's so heavily favored at this point.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:04:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's a bit of an inference (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, SaoMagnifico

            but not an absurd one. She is the strongest possible Republican candidate in that state, I think. It starts out at the very best as a tossup election.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:42:10 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Tossup, sure. I can go with that...for now. (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoosierD42, MichaelNY, lordpet8

              But "hers to lose" just isn't right. It's too soon, and we have too little to go on.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:01:30 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Her campaigning skills (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, sapelcovits

                Could very well have atrophied since she hasn't been seriously challenged since 2000.

                24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                by HoosierD42 on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:03:37 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  That's a good point (0+ / 0-)

                  She probably isn't as rusty as Thompson, but if you don't have serious opposition, you don't get to really exercise your campaigning muscles. Hasn't she at times been a 2nd or 3rd-tier target by Democrats, though?

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:06:07 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Dunno (0+ / 0-)

                I think it wasn't wrong to start out by rating this year's ND-Sen race as Lean R, although it didn't turn out that way, and I don't think it's wrong to start out with this race as Lean R or Tossup/Tilt R. It's a very preliminary rating, but the point is, it figures to be a very tough race that requires excellent recruitment if Rockefeller retires, tough defense if he runs for reelection, and a lot of clever strategy and big spending by the DSCC.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:08:32 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  Berg had been in office for one year (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, MichaelNY

        Moore Capito has been in office eleven, and she consistently over performs her district. I'm struggling to see it.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 06:11:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  This seat is gone. Only Manchin can defeat her. (0+ / 0-)

      We'll have to try to do some offense in states like GA and SC to make up for this guaranteed loss.

      •  Only I can guarantee things (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Inoljt, MichaelNY, redrelic17, jncca

        with 100% accuracy.  This is Lean R for now.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:35:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  My apologies. I'd go with Likely R. (0+ / 0-)
          •  Likely R is not at all ridiculous. (0+ / 0-)

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

            by spiderdem on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:42:53 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Disagree (8+ / 0-)

              Likely R is incredibly ridiculous considering:

              1) We don't know if Jay Rockefeller is retiring

              2) We don't know who the Democratic candidate will be if he does, but we have a good bench regardless

              3) We don't know the national environment or how the economy will be doing

              4) We just saw an election where West Virginia gave Romney the 5th best margin of states, yet managed to re-elect Democratic meh governor Earl Ray Tomblin while giving Manchin a crushing win over Raese

              This is still a state very much in contention and I'd place it at tossup/tilt R. I remember the people crowing here about North Dakota being Safe R because Conrad was retiring only for the opposite to happen (and North Dakota was only marginally less anti-Obama, and much more Republican in state and local races than WV). We still have two years for this race to develop and it's annoying we're already starting a new round of chicken little doom and gloom.

              21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!)

              by gigantomachyusa on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:58:22 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Likely R if this is an open seat (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SaoMagnifico

              otherwise lean R if Rockefeller stays in.

              my 2 cents

              "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

              by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:29:26 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  lean R (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            There's a long way to go. The Dem will probably follow Manchin's playbook to the letter, we'll see if it works.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:03:27 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Freshmen Senators Berg, Mourdock, and Akin (9+ / 0-)

        were all "guaranteed" their seats at some point in the cycle.  Maybe Moore Capito will say something horrible about pregnancy by rape.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:39:03 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Or she can just get teabagged (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, bjssp, lordpet8, jncca

          Capito supposedly has an abortion rights record that pro-life groups very much don't like.

          I wouldn't assume she survives a primary.

          WV already has a recent GOP primary upset under its belt with Maloney in the WV-Gov special, so they are not disinclined to squeeze out their own best candidates.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:05:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'd be shocked to see her teabagged (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, SaoMagnifico

            West Virginians need and like pork, and don't hesitate to vote for popular politicians out of purism.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 09:28:04 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  but (9+ / 0-)

              A lot of SMC's supporters can't vote in the GOP primary. A lot of WV's usual GOP vote is actually registered Dems. She should win the primary, but Mike Castle looked like a lock in his.

              SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:05:26 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  True (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                HoosierD42, R30A

                Your argument is pretty unimpeachable. We'll have to see whether the Republicans can shoot themselves in the foot again.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:43:05 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  When Mike Castle lost in Delaware... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  ...that was the fire alarm to the whole country that no "establishment" Republican is safe, anywhere.

                  That really was the ultimate extreme unthinkable scenario, where the GOP voters literally threw away a seat that everyone understood as common knowledge would go to Coons if they did that.  I really doubt rank-and-file GOPers who voted for O'Donnell in that primary were completely unaware of the November ramifications of what they were doing.  They just didn't care.

                  Capito easily can get teabagged to political death.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 08:26:27 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  And they repeated the process (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    DCCyclone

                    in Indiana this year.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 09:31:36 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Yup, although that was less clear-cut (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Mourdock himself was a state elected official, and not an obvious lunatic out of the gate when he decided to challenge Lugar.  And Indiana is a conservative state, generic R always has the edge there.  So those things all make it very different from Delaware.

                      Delaware was a very blue state where the state GOP was struggling already, Castle was all they had for an obvious likely winner, and O'Donnell was a disaster based on everything reported on her...lotta personal baggage and no record of any public service of any kind.  And Castle ran TV ads pointing it out!  And for all that, Delaware Republicans still did the dumbest thing imagineable.

                      What kills the GOP is that this is their rank-and-file voters doing all this, and that's not something they can fix.  They have to just try to explain to their own rank-and-file how they threw away all these seats and hope their voters learn the right lesson from it.

                      If I were the NRSC head for the 2014 cycle, I would go ahead and play hardball in primaries, openly taking sides and going to the mat for who I wanted, and going hard negative on teabagger challengers.  And to anyone who complained, I would just reply "your notions cost us the Senate" and point to all the Democrats occupying what would've been Republican-held seats.  I don't think GOP Senators should tiptoe, that's a big mistake.  But all indications are they're going to tiptoe.  Which is fine by me, I'm happy to pick off another seat or two thanks to teabaggers.

                      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Tue Nov 27, 2012 at 05:18:03 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

          •  well then if that's true I'm all for Tennant (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            to give a go!

            "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

            by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:32:04 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Berg yes (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Mourdock and Akin, not so much. THey had well known liabilities.

          •  Akin yes as well (0+ / 0-)

            Akin would have won had it not been for that one comment, though he was definitely always a better shot for McCaskill than the other idiots.

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 04:53:49 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Based on his history, the chances (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, bjssp, MichaelNY

              of Akin surviving 2 months on the campaign trail without saying something incredibly stupid were pretty slim. I mean this guy had already compared student loans to stage 3 cancer and called for a abolition of the minimum wage. He just blew up in a particularly spectacular fashion. I certainly never viewed this seat as gone with Akin in the mix.

      •  Doom and Gloom much? (8+ / 0-)

        Just like North Dakota was gone. Missouri was gone. Indiana was was a Republican lock.

        No doubt Capito will be formidable and probably the favorite if this is an open seat but it's a little early to be giving up.

        "We will never have the elite, smart people on our side." - Rick Santorum

        by Minnesota Mike on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:39:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  agreed (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

          I guess some of us are just nervous about the fact that I don't see Capito as anything close to Berg, Mourdock, or Akin.

          So I expect this to be a fight.

          "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

          by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:33:37 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think Capito can be compared to those 3. (7+ / 0-)

        She's a proven, moderate, tested, and popular candidate in a Dem-leaning district. She's not a lackluster, unknown freshman congressman facing the most charismatic politican in her state (Berg's situation).

        And she's a pro-choice woman. Mourdock and Akin were going to be freshman senators until they spouted crap about rape.

        •  Interestingly... (6+ / 0-)

          Given Shelley Moore Capito is comparably moderate on social issues, and there is no way that a social liberal will be nominated by the Democrats for Senate, it effectively means that the race will be likely fought on economic issues.  

          And in a socially conservative, yet populist state like West Virginia, this is probably good for us.  West Virginia is not fundamentalist in the same sense that much of the bible belt is, but someone with conservative bona-fides could probably get the religious crazies to turn out in high numbers in an off-year election.  But Shelley Moore Capito isn't that kind of candidate.  

          •  well isn't natalie tennant Pro-choice (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            that make for an interesting race where both candidate would not be trying to secure the social conservative vote

            "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

            by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:35:17 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Berg was known. (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, MichaelNY, bjssp, bumiputera

          He was elected statewide for Congress and served as State House Speaker for ages before that.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:55:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  48-44 is not gone in any universe (5+ / 0-)

        And it's probably a hell of alot better than we'll be polling up front in SC and GA.

        As for our best candidate, West Virginia has never sent a female Senator to congress, so we might as well put up Tennant to blunt that "groundbreaking" issue with voters.

        Tennant would simply be a much stronger candidate than Rockefeller in every conceivable way, and given that Capito was only ahead 48-44 in the most recent poll (albeit awhile ago, she'd probably be ahead by a few more now after the floor almost completely fell out for Democrats in the state) it would not surprise me to see Tennant poll in a dead heat with Capito. And that is simply much better than we'll get in GA or SC.

        The only seat, and I'm echoing DCC here, that I'm willing to concede at this point to the GOP is SD. Rounds will demolish Johnson if he tries to run again, I think, and would probably do even better against SHS.

        At this point, Maine is our only hope and only if Collins retires.

        We have that potential for one pickup, but we could lose any of the following (starting with what I think are the most vulnerable proceeding to the least): SD, WV, AK, LA, NC, MT.

        Republicans need a clean sweep, or have to broaden the playing field to incumbents which I can't see as vulnerable until some good polling data is available (MN, OR, AR, NH, VA, CO), in order to win the Senate.

        As much as people say that the terrain in 2014 is really bad for us given that we have 20 seats to hold and they have only 13, we would be wise to remember that in 2012 we had 23 seats up in 2012 against 10 Republicans and we ended up gaining more. Things are not worse for us in 2014 than they are in 2012.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:45:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Except for the whole off year election thing... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          N/T

          •  Good thing we can afford to lose 5 seats (9+ / 0-)

            seriously, can we not do this now, the last election was less than three weeks ago and after months of panicing ahead of that I hope that we can be free of panic until we at least have some inkling of an idea of how the cycle will be shaping up.  

            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:55:09 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Aye, no need for dread or fear or rankings. (3+ / 0-)

              Leave most of that out for another 13 months.

              Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

              by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:11:58 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  You don't get to set other people's timetables (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, bumiputera, jncca

              for analyzing elections.  I reserve the right to do that 24/7/365.  There is already plenty of information available to assess our chances in these seats.  We know who the incumbents are, we know who the Republican frontrunners are in WV and SD, we have numbers on PVI, job approval, and even some head-to-heads.  Why can't we talk about it?

              White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

              by spiderdem on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:20:59 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  It's not panicking. (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, MichaelNY, lordpet8

              It's the map. Maybe the economy will go into overdrive and 2014 will be a great year! But that just means we lose 2-3 seats instead of 4-5 in a neutral year, or 7-8 in a bad year.

              •  I'm not arguing about the map (I know it sucks) (0+ / 0-)

                and I don't really want to engage in this any further for now.

                26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                by okiedem on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:28:41 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Big problem with arguing "the map" is it fails (5+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bythesea, LordMike, MichaelNY, bjssp, lordpet8

                The map has failed in most recent cycles.

                We weren't supposed to do well in 2006 or 2012 according to the early look at the map.

                And we were supposed to kick ass in 2010 according to the early look at the map.

                I vaguely recall 2008 looked good, but ended up much better than expected thanks to the Democratic wave.

                So I'm very underwhelmed with the map in 2014.  I'm very skeptical we'll hold SD, I bet that's gone even if Johnson runs again, but that's the only seat I'm willing to peg a loss.

                It's worth nothing that Democrats have lost exactly one incumbent over the past 5 cycles starting with 2004, and that was Feingold in 2010; 2004 itself was actually a bad cycle but no Democratic incumbent lost, it was only open seats we lost.  That we lost only one incumbent in 2010 and none in 2012 is amazing, in addition to losing no incumbents in 2006 or 2008.

                Until we start having retirements, we're in the driver's seat for many of these tough seats.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:13:14 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Um (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, lordpet8

                  In 2010 we lost two incumbents in general elections and one in a primary. Feingold and D-Walmart and then Specter.

                  22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                  by wwmiv on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:45:33 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I forgot about Lincoln, thanks (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    I don't count Specter, his losing in a primary isn't the party losing.  Frankly we got the stronger candidate for November out of that, Specter was mortally wounded.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 08:31:01 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  The difference is that the seats (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            that are most vulnerable for us are the ones least likely to be affected by presidential turnout dropping off.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:20:18 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  WV voters don't care about "groundbreaking"... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jncca

          ...in the first place.  Culturally conservative voters aren't interested in that.

          So "first woman" is worthless in that race, in that particular state probably also on the Democratic side.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:06:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Why are we placing so much stock (0+ / 0-)

          in one poll?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:17:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Look (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I'm responding to the idea that this poll means that Capito will definitely beat Rockefeller by saying that this poll means no such thing.

            It's also the only polling we have at this point on this race.

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:23:25 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I (0+ / 0-)

              don't know why I asked you, specifically, about placing too much emphasis on one poll.

              It still stands as a question for everyone else, though.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:32:47 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Also, why are you so sure Johnson is toast (0+ / 0-)

          against Rounds?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:18:18 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Because (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Rounds is a very popular former governor against a candidate that will in all likelihood have a hard time campaigning in a competitive race, without the benefit of a sympathy vote from his medical issues because those have long-since faded into the background.

            And we have no polling so we only have our own opinions to go off of, so don't try to catch me in some hypocritical posture vis-a-vis my opinion on West Virginia.

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:25:18 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  So, if (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoosierD42, lordpet8

              we have nothing in particular on which to base our belief that Johnson will have a hard time being reelected (assuming he run, of course), what's the problem?

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:35:27 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  we still have to take into the account of (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          a statewide vs federal election. I have no clue how well Natalie Tennant can do in a federal race yet.

          Did she actually face much credible opposition from Republicans in her two elections?

          Is Natalie Tennant strong supporter on Coal issues or something?

          That's one way I could see her doing better than Rockefeller at this point.

          "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

          by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:40:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Probably (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, MichaelNY

            But she doesn't have any ratings from energy or environmental organizations, so she could easily posture herself as being pro-coal without evidence to the contrary.

            http://votesmart.org/...

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:48:27 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Here (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8, MichaelNY

              Unfortunately,

              http://votesmart.org/...

              Her husband, St. Sen. Erik Wells does not seem to be unequivocally pro-coal. He supports expanding the Clean Water Act and Clean Air Act as well as strengthening emission controls and fuel standards. He supports alternative energy development and ethanol.

              He does support "increased development of traditional energy resources (e.g. coal, natural gas, oil)".

              Married couples tend to support many of the same things, which means Tennant may not be the best candidate here, but I think she'd be better than Rockefeller who has gone all the way to bat against the coal industry.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

              by wwmiv on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:54:21 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Noted by lordpet (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                lordpet8, MichaelNY

                As noted about by lordpet, I think the key is to find a socially conservative Democrat, which Tennant does not seem to be (she's pro-choice).

                That would provide a good contrast with Capito, who is also pro-choice. It would also guard ourselves against he possibility of a more-conservative option winning the GOP nomination against Capito and then going into the general using social issues against Tennant.

                However, Tennant would provide a very McCaskill-esque optic if Capito is primaried by someone from the GOPs "rape" gang.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                by wwmiv on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:58:09 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Awesome (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, KingofSpades

                  http://www.wvmetronews.com/...

                  Tennant already seems to have a pro-coal posture, but perhaps not as notable as Manchin and Tomblin's.

                  22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                  by wwmiv on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:12:08 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Flip side (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Is that she went to the convention...

                    She could be tarred by that.

                    Also, I feel like I'm talking to myself here.

                    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                    by wwmiv on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:12:54 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Who is going to tar her (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      jncca, MichaelNY

                      for going to her party's convention two years after the fact? If it's that easy to defeat her, she would have never have had a chance to begin with.

                      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                      by bjssp on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 07:59:13 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

        •  We were defending a lot more safe seats in 2012. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY
      •  Oh this is such bullshit (7+ / 0-)

        Capito is no guarantee to survive a primary and th.ere are plenty of WV conservaDems who can hold the seat against Capito or someone else.

        And even if there's early polling that shows Capito the frontrunner, I don't care, it's a throwaway poll against anyone but maybe Rockefeller himself if he wants to fight for reelection.

        I don't have this even at lean R, it's a tossup that can't legitimately be called lean R for another year even against Rockefeller, and not for long after that against any other competent conservaDem.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:03:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  That's a ridiculous statement to make two years (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        out.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:15:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I tend to agree (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        West Virginia has been trending hard against us for a while now, and I've been expecting Sen. Rockefeller to retire. With Rep. Capito now running, I would be very surprised if Rockefeller stays around.

        We do have some small opportunities in Georgia and South Carolina, potentially; if Sen. Collins retires in Maine, which I'm not expecting, that seat is probably ours for the taking. Other than that, we're in a bit of a pickle.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:58:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'll wait awhile before assesing this (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, LordMike, MichaelNY, bjssp, lordpet8

      If Rockefeller doesn't run, Tennant will probably go for it and since she's pro-choice, she definitely will be able to benefit from Emily's List money, in addition to the DCCC and other PAC money, that money is critical for Senate candidates. I think we have a chance at holding it.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:48:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  You're move, Tea Party (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, lordpet8

      How do we go about getting Capito to look inadequately conservative? Is it possible?

      "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

      by xcave on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:25:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  She's trying to scare him out... (0+ / 0-)

      ...it's worked before.  I hope Rockefeller doesn't go down without a fight.  

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:37:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's great but he might be toast (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY, sacman701

        This could be one where he's down and out, no recovery possible.

        In fact, I'd be surprised if private polling doesn't have him down already.

        That Capito is announcing this fast tells me the GOP's private polling has her up.  Of course their side's private polling has been shockingly bad this year, but West Virginia has no minorities or massive numbers of college students or others who could be "underpolled" by a GOP-happy turnout model.

        I suspect Rocky retires and we spend the cycle hoping our side has a competent conservaDem nominee, and that Capito has a primary fight which is plausible with her abortion record apostasies and who knows what else teabaggers will hate.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:17:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I have no doubt he's down in polling... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          ...he was down in the last public poll.  It's a question of whether he wants to fight or not.  If he's willing to barnstorm around the state fighting for his beliefs, then he probably can pull it out.  If he wants to mail it in, well then, he's done.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 09:22:19 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I'm still rooting for Rockefeller to stay in (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I guess she's feeling pretty good about those PPP polls.

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:25:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Big 5 of 2014- SD, AK, AR, WV, LA. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    These are the 5 Democratic Senate seats in the most danger in 2014, sort of like ND, MO, NE, and MT early this cycle.

    Right now, I'd bet on all 5 going GOP, but Dems holding all their other seats for a split of 50-50, which would allow us to hold the Senate.

    •  Makes me want to puke a little (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, lordpet8

      that this doesn't even include MT and NC, not to mention MN, IA, CO, and others that could get competitive.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:40:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Keep in mind, Obama improved in AK and LA (7+ / 0-)

      I don't know how much good that will do Begich and Landrieu, but it could really make a difference.

      Besides, I think Democrats will go into this midterm with a whole different strategy. Early to rise is wise and I think the game will start being played earlier than it has been in previous midterms.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 06:56:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  There's some reason for optimism in those (7+ / 0-)

        and AR.  By reliable polling, it appears Landrieu and Pryor are around 53% approval and Begich around 57%.  Wouldn't count out incumbents with those kind of numbers even in red states, and all three will be energetic candidates.

        The ones I don't like the look of are WV and SD, primarily due to Republican candidate strength.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:08:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  given everyone was certain we'd lose the senate (12+ / 0-)

      this year, I'm not too pessimistic.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:02:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I am (irrationally?) hopeful about AR and LA. (8+ / 0-)

      Pryor and Landrieu both won in 2008, after all, though Obama got only 39-40% in their states. Granted Pryor didn't have an opponent, but that in itself says something.

      And while AR has probably gotten worse for us since '08, LA really hasn't; we'd already bottomed out there. Landrieu is very popular there, too - which might just mean she's the Scott Brown of Louisiana, but also might mean she's the state's Olympia Snowe. And generally I think both Pryor and Landrieu are good fits for their states.

      Alaska I have no idea about. SD is probably a goner. WV will be tough, but it's worth noting that a Democratic Senate candidate did just win the state by 23% not three weeks ago. It's also a state where the midterm dropoff in turnout won't hurt that much, and might even help (bigger labor footprint?). I would guess we lose it, but it's no sure thing.

      All in all, I'd guess we lose 3 of these 5, and 1-2 of MT, NC, and all the rest. But just a little bit of a republican tailwind would be plenty enough for them to take the senate.

      •  Landrieu probably won't be a problem... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, lordpet8

        She's got like a 60% approval rating in the state.  I think Louisianans feel all "independent" to have a token Dem in the state.

        Pryor is a mystery... He's a backbencher, which makes him less of a target since he didn't make a public ass of himself like Nelson or Lincoln.  I don't think he's as vulnerable as people think, especially if the economy improves.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:36:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  additionally we've lost our 3 CDs all (3+ / 0-)

          in cases of retirements.  Blanche is our only federal loss of an incumbent there.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:42:44 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Pryor (6+ / 0-)

          Pryor will no doubt resurrect the Blue Dog Democratic Coalition, and carry most of the rural Blue Dog counties in both the Delta and Southern Arkansas.

          The problem? The population of Arkansas has shifted. 40% of the population now lives in the hard Republican areas of Northwest Arkansas and the Little Rock suburbs. And they never vote for Democrats. Pryor needs to be so powerful in the rural Democratic areas, or milk Little Rock for every vote its worth to win. Which is actually pretty challenging.

  •  It's official, Romney down to 47%! (16+ / 0-)

    Wasserman updated tonight on Twitter with the link to this Google doc, and Mitt is down to 47.49%!

    Obama up to 50.81.

    Link:  https://docs.google.com/...

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:59:57 PM PST

  •  One reason I'm not freaking out about Senate 2014 (6+ / 0-)

    yet is that the early conventional wisdom on the Senate has been wrong in many recent cycles.

    2006: After a great 2004, it looked like the GOP was poised for more gains in 2006. Mark Dayton looked weak, and the GOP had a strong challenger, Rep. Mark Kennedy. A loss by Ben Nelson almost seemed inevitable, and Bill Nelson wasnt in the strongest shape. There didnt seem to be too many Dem pickup opportunities. George Allen was an 08 presidential frontrunner. I dont think anyone thought Conrad Burns was vulnerable, same with Mike Dewine and Jim Talent.

    2010: I dont think anyone early on predicted the 7 seat loss Dems would see. While there were some vulnerable Dem seats(NV, DE, CO, AR), there were Dem pickup opportunities too(MO, OH, NH, NC, PA, before Specter's switch).

    2012: Well, I dont need to say too much about this. It's still unbelievable to me that Dems actually GAINED seats this cycle.

    This isnt to say the CW will be wrong this time. Just that it's too early to worry. If the economy continues to improve, it will help Obama's approval rate nationally. That still wont make him popular in many of the states where there are key Senate races. But it would mean we wont have a wave election like 2010, 2006, 1994, etc and that could be enough to help at least a few senators.

    •  well the power of incumbency should helps dems out (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

      Chuck and Harry need to convince the dems in marginal seats to stay put.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:13:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also, our problems (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        are kind of known at this point, and they mostly concern relatively hostile territory. There could be scandals, some national crisis, or some more economic trouble, but right now, we have a good idea of what we are up against and can prepare accordingly.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:40:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Republicans would have to run the table (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, lordpet8

        to take control of the Senate at this point, so that could be a good sales pitch.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:51:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hopefully we can count (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        on the R's running a few more crazy candidates and making us competitive in States that aren't even supposed to be on the table or take some our seats of the table like we did this cycle.

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:11:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Where? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jncca

          Every seat the GOP had us is either southern, border south, or in the Mormon belt save for three:

          1. We haven't won a seat in Kansas since George McGill who left office in 1939.

          2. Nebraska is finished for us federally in the Senate.

          3. And Maine requires a Collins loss or retirement.

          Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina are potentially interesting but require a calamity so gigantic that we shouldn't be holding our breaths.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:20:39 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  South Dakota? (0+ / 0-)

            Could anything weird happen in the Republican primary there? I mean, I doubt it - the Dakotas don't seem very interested in Tea Party Republicans - but is there any possibility?

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:27:26 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Even Noem (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Isn't a Tea Partier, despite being washed in during the Tea Party wave.

              We'd need Rounds to lose his primary to a birther and for Johnson to step aside for SHS to win the SD seat.

              We all like to think that Johnson is some mythical being in South Dakota, when he really isn't. He won his first two races 50-49 and only won a large amount in the national Democratic wave of 2008 against token opposition after a groundswell of public sympathy because of his brain hemorrhage. If we all think that Johnson can beat Rounds without having to campaign (and remember that he can't: Johnson is wheelchair bound and is barely able to speak) then we're idiots.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

              by wwmiv on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:32:47 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't think Johnson is mythical. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I just think he's a reasonably well liked incumbent in a state that doesn't have a problem electing Democrats, even if it's elected fewer of them in recent years. It's Rounds who's being treated as some sort of mythical being, in fact.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 08:01:42 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  not likely (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              The only "weird" possibility is if Rounds changes his mind for some reason. He will not lose the primary barring a major scandal.

              SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 07:17:58 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  you have point (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            perhaps we may end up with a few conservative insurgents running on a 3rd party to split the vote for the general.
            Heck that's how Frank Moss won his Utah senate race back in 1958

            In 1958, Moss ran for the U.S. Senate against two-term incumbent Arthur V. Watkins, a close ally of both the Eisenhower administration and The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and also against J. Bracken Lee, a non-Mormon and former two-term Utah governor (1949–57), who was running as an independent after losing to Watkins in the Republican primary. The Republican vote was split in the general election, largely over local dissatisfaction with Watkins's having chaired the committee that censured Senator Joseph McCarthy, and Moss won election with less than 40 percent of the vote.
            We can still count on them sabotaging some Republican pickups like they did this year in MO

            "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

            by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:27:54 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's not going to happen. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              The field really hasn't taken shape yet, so I don't have much ground to stand on when I say that. Yet I really don't think that'll happen.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

              by wwmiv on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:35:21 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  The conventional wisdom for 2010 was Dems gaining (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, BeloitDem, jncca

      SSP's first rating of the Arkansas Senate race was Safe Democratic.

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