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Here is the comparison of my 2012 predictions against the results. I know that not all the results have been finalized, but it doesn't seem likely that any result will change at this point.

Most of my predictions were really close, though there were some surprising results where my prediction was way off, and some of the safe races had no polls at all, including some states with presidential polls (ie. Alaska).

For the presidential race, I:

(1) Weighed state polls and national polls for the presidential race. Here is an example, using Hawaii.

HAWAII
State Pollster
Merriman River Group/Civil Beat 10/24-10/26: Obama 61, Romney 34 (D+27)

National Pollster
Monmouth 11/01-11/04: Obama 48, Romney 48 (EVEN)
Rasmussen 11/01-11/04: Obama 48, Romney 49 (R+1)
Washington Post/ABC News 11/01-11/04: Obama 50, Romney 47 (D+3)
Politico/GWU 10/29-11/01: Obama 48, Romney 48 (EVEN)
NBC News/WSJ/Marist 11/01-11/03: Obama 48, Romney 47 (D+1)
Public Policy 11/01-11/03:Obama 50, Romney 47 (D+3)
United Technologies/National Journal 10/25-10/28: Obama 50, Romney 45 (D+5)
Fox News 10/28-10/30: Obama 46, Romney 46 (EVEN)
North Star Opinion Research 10/23-10/25: Obama 47,    Romney 48 (R+1)

(2) I then averaged the national polls and used them against the state's margin in 2008 (Obama won Hawaii by 45.26%).

State Adjustment:
National poll average: 1.11
2008 margin: 45.26
Adjusted margin with 2012 national polls: 46.37

(3) Finally, I weighted the national polls against the state polls. (If there were no state polls, the national-adjusted number would be the prediction.) If there was 1 state poll, I would multiply each by half. If there were 2 state polls, they'd get 2/3 of the share; 3 would get 3/4, etc.)

State polls: 27.00 x 0.50 = 13.50
National polls: 46.37 x 0.50  = 23.19

Prediction: Obama will win by 36.69%.

For the governor and Senate races I simply averaged the polls. Races without polls I put as safe for the incumbent party.

For the House races, I weighed pundit ratings with polls (if applicable). No polls meant the average pundit rating (Cook, Sabato, Rothenberg, CQ) would get 100% of the weight, 1 poll would get 50%, 2 polls 67%, etc.

State My Prediction Actual Result
Alabama
Romney by 19.23
Romney by 22.24
Alaska
Romney by 20.43
Romney by 13.95
Arizona
Romney by 6.84
Romney by 9.09
Arkansas
Romney by 22.87
Romney by 23.88
California
Obama by 19.92
Obama by 21.76
Colorado
Obama by 2.59
Obama by 4.98
Connecticut
Obama by 15.74
Obama by 17.58
Delaware
Obama by 26.09
Obama by 18.63
District of Columbia
Obama by 87.03
Obama by 84.01
Florida
Romney by 0.26
Obama by 0.86
Georgia
Romney by 6.71
Romney by 7.82
Hawaii
Obama by 36.69
Obama by 42.7
Idaho
Romney by 24.19
Romney by 31.87
Illinois
Obama by 18.81
Obama by 16.69
Indiana
Romney by 5.43
Romney by 10.59
Iowa
Obama by 2.79
Obama by 5.8
Kansas
Romney by 13.81
Romney by 22.26
Kentucky
Romney by 14.55
Romney by 22.7
Louisiana
Romney by 17.52
Romney by 17.2
Maine
Obama by 15.29
Obama by 15.1
Maryland
Obama by 22.39
Obama by 25.55
Massachusetts
Obama by 21.84
Obama by 23.12
Michigan
Obama by 5.18
Obama by 9.5
Minnesota
Obama by 8.34
Obama by 7.69
Mississippi
Romney by 12.06
Romney by 12.04
Missouri
Romney by 8.3
Romney by 9.62
Montana
Romney by 5.11
Romney by 13.66
Nebraska
Romney by 13.41
Romney by 22.36
Nevada
Obama by 3.64
Obama by 6.57
New Hampshire
Obama by 3.01
Obama by 5.56
New Jersey
Obama by 14.33
Obama by 16.9
New Mexico
Obama by 11.66
Obama by 9.88
New York
Obama by 26.87
Obama by 26.64
North Carolina
Romney by 0.46
Romney by 2.07
North Dakota
Romney by 19.11
Romney by 19.62
Ohio
Obama by 2.96
Obama by 2
Oklahoma
Romney by 29.59
Romney by 33.54
Oregon
Obama by 9.78
Obama by 12.14
Pennsylvania
Obama by 6.09
Obama by 5.02
Rhode Island
Obama by 22.98
Obama by 27.42
South Carolina
Romney by 7.87
Romney by 10.45
South Dakota
Romney by 6.65
Romney by 18.02
Tennessee
Romney by 13.95
Romney by 19.41
Texas
Romney by 14.9
Romney by 15.83
Utah
Romney by 33.45
Romney by 47.9
Vermont
Obama by 37.56
Obama by 35.6
Virginia
Obama by 2.05
Obama by 3.73
Washington
Obama by 12.05
Obama by 14.47
West Virginia
Romney by 12.99
Romney by 26.86
Wisconsin
Obama by 5.8
Obama by 6.71
Wyoming
Romney by 31.23
Romney by 40.82
2012 Governor My Prediction Actual Result
Delaware
Safe Markell (D)
Markell (D) by 40.75
Indiana
Pence (R) by 7.87
Pence (R) by 3.13
Missouri
Nixon (D) by 13
Nixon (D) by 12.06
Montana
Daines (R) by 0.5
Bullock (D) by 3.32
New Hampshire
Hassan (D) by 3
Hassan (D) by 12.09
North Carolina
McCrory (R) by 14.25
McCrory (R) by 11.49
North Dakota
Dalrymple (R) by 35
Dalrymple (R) by 28.79
Utah
Safe Herbert (R)
Herbert (R) by 40.62
Vermont
Shumlin (D) by 34.00
Shumlin (D) by 17.38
Washington
Inslee (D) by 0.5
Inslee (D) by 2.26
West Virginia
Tomblin (D) by 21
Tomblin (D) by 4.75
2012 Senate My Prediction Actual Result
Arizona
Carmona (D) by 0.5
Flake (R) by 4.81
California
Feinstein (D) by 19
Feinstein (D) by 22.78
Connecticut
Murphy (D) by 4.67
Murphy (D) by 12.2
Delaware
Safe Carper (D)
Carper (D) by 37.46
Florida
Nelson (D) by 7.43
Nelson (D) by 12.83
Hawaii
Hirono (D) by 18.5
Hirono (D) by 15.2
Indiana
Donnelly (D) by 3
Donnelly (D) by 5.16
Maine
King (I) by 18
King (I) by 12.18
Maryland
Cardin (D) by 26.09
Cardin (D) by 28.67
Massachusetts
Warren (D) by 4.67
Warren (D) by 7.32
Michigan
Stabenow (D) by 13.5
Stabenow (D) by 20.82
Minnesota
Klobuchar (D) by 30
Klobuchar (D) by 34.62
Mississippi
Safe Wicker (R)
Wicker (R) by 16.99
Missouri
McCaskill (D) by 6.25
McCaskill (D) by 15.52
Montana
Rehberg (R) by 1.13
Tester (D) by 3.5
Nebraska
Fischer (R) by 13
Fischer (R) by 16.34
Nevada
Heller (R) by 5.14
Heller (R) by 1.22
New Jersey
Menendez (D) by 18
Menendez (D) by 18.43
New Mexico
Heinrich (D) by 9.67
Heinrich (D) by 5.49
New York
Gillibrand (D) by 43
Gillibrand (D) by 45.43
North Dakota
Berg (R) by 5
Heitkamp (D) by 0.94
Ohio
Brown (D) by 6.14
Brown (D) by 5.31
Pennsylvania
Casey (D) by 5.14
Casey (D) by 9.01
Rhode Island
Whitehouse (D) by 25.5
Whitehouse (D) by 29.8
Tennessee
Safe Corker (R)
Corker (R) by 34.51
Texas
Cruz (R) by 21.5
Cruz (R) by 16.18
Utah
Safe Hatch (R)
Hatch (R) by 35.02
Vermont
Safe Sanders (I)
Sanders (I) by 44.31
Virginia
Kaine (D) by 1.57
Kaine (D) by 5.14
Washington
Cantwell (D) by 16.5
Cantwell (D) by 19.28
West Virginia
Manchin (D) by 39
Manchin (D) by 22.98
Wisconsin
Baldwin (D) by 2.67
Baldwin (D) by 5.57
Wyoming
Safe Barrasso (R)
Barrasso (R) by 54.07
2012 U.S. House My Prediction Actual Result
AZ-01
Paton (R) by 1.88
Kirkpatrick (D) by 3.7
AZ-02
Barber (D) by 5.63
Barber (D) by ?
AZ-09
Sinema (D) by 2.56
Sinema (D) by 3.7
CA-03
Garamendi (D) by 15
Garamendi (D) by 7.4
CA-07
Bera (D) by 1.25
Bera (D) by 2.2
CA-09
McNerney (D) by 1.25
McNerney (D) by 8.2
CA-10
Denham (R) by 1.13
Denham (R) by 7.6
CA-24
Capps (D) by 2.5
Capps (D) by 9.6
CA-26
Brownley (D) by 0.5
Brownley (D) by 3.4
CA-36
Bono Mack (R) by 0.63
Ruiz (D) by 2.8
CA-41
Takano (D) by 6.25
Takano (D) by 12.8
CA-47
Lowenthal (D) by 15
Lowenthal (D) by 10.2
CA-52
Peters (D) by 0.31
Peters (D) by 0.4
CO-03
Tipton (R) by 5
Tipton (R) by 12.4
CO-06
Coffman (R) by 4.38
Coffman (R) by 3.6
CO-07
Perlmutter (D) by 7.5
Perlmutter (D) by 12.1
CT-05
Esty (D) by 3.13
Esty (D) by 3
FL-02
Southerland (R) by 6.25
Southerland (R) by 5.4
FL-10
Webster (R) by 5
Webster (R) by 3.6
FL-16
Buchanan (R) by 10
Buchanan (R) by 7.2
FL-18
West (R) by 4.59
Murphy (D) by 0.8
FL-22
Frankel (D) by 3.89
Frankel (D) by 9.2
FL-26
Rivera (R) by 2
Garcia (D) by 10.6
GA-12
Barrow (D) by 4.25
Barrow (D) by 7.4
IL-08
Duckworth (D) by 8.75
Duckworth (D) by 9.4
IL-10
Dold (R) by 1.88
Schneider (D) by 1
IL-11
Foster (D) by 2.81
Foster (D) by 16.2
IL-12
Enyart (D) by 4.94
Enyart (D) by 8.6
IL-13
Gill (D) by 0.63
Davis (R) by 0.4
IL-17
Bustos (D) by 0.63
Bustos (D) by 6.6
IN-02
Walorski (R) by 12.5
Walorski (R) by 1.4
IN-08
Bucshon (R) by 10
Bucshon (R) by 10.3
IA-01
Braley (D) by 15
Braley (D) by 15.2
IA-02
Loebsack (D) by 10
Loebsack (D) by 12.9
IA-03
Latham (R) by 3.75
Latham (R) by 8.7
IA-04
King (R) by 3.44
King (R) by 8.6
KY-06
Chandler (D) by 5.19
Barr (R) by 3.9
MD-06
Delaney (D) by 5.5
Delaney (D) by 20.5
MA-06
Tisei (R) by 5.5
Tierney (D) by 1
MI-01
McDowell (D) by 1.31
Benishek (R) by 0.7
MI-03
Amash (R) by 11.25
Amash (R) by 8.6
MI-11
Bentivolio (R) by 6.25
Bentivolio (R) by 6.3
MN-02
Kline (R) by 15
Kline (R) by 8.2
MN-06
Bachmann (R) by 6.25
Bachmann (R) by 1.2
MN-08
Nolan (D) by 2.56
Nolan (D) by 9
MT-AL
Daines (R) by 8.67
Daines (R) by 10.3
NV-03
Heck (R) by 9
Heck (R) by 14.2
NV-04
Tarkanian (R) by 0.56
Horsford (D) by 7.9
NH-01
Guinta (R) by 5.31
Shea-Porter (D) by 3.7
NH-02
Kuster (D) by 4.85
Kuster (D) by 5.1
NJ-03
Runyan (R) by 10.63
Runyan (R) by 9
NY-01
Bishop (D) by 8.69
Bishop (D) by 4.4
NY-11
Grimm (R) by 13.38
Grimm (R) by 6.6
NY-18
Hayworth (R) by 4.75
Maloney (D) by 3.4
NY-19
Gibson (R) by 3.75
Gibson (R) by 6.8
NY-21
Owens (D) by 2.06
Owens (D) by 2
NY-24
Maffei (D) by 1.56
Maffei (D) by 3.6
NY-25
Slaughter (D) by 9.38
Slaughter (D) by 14.4
NY-27
Collins (R) by 2.06
Collins (R) by 1.4
NC-07
Rouzer (R) by 0.63
McIntyre (D) by 0.2
NC-08
Hudson (R) by 10
Hudson (R) by 8.2
NC-11
Meadows (R) by 12.5
Meadows (R) by 14.8
ND-AL
Cramer (R) by 12.25
Cramer (R) by 13.2
OH-06
Johnson (R) by 4.38
Johnson (R) by 6.6
OH-16
Renacci (R) by 1.88
Renacci (R) by 4.4
OK-02
Mullin (R) by 11.63
Mullin (R) by 19.1
PA-06
Gerlach (R) by 15
Gerlach (R) by 14.2
PA-08
Fitzpatrick (R) by 11.25
Fitzpatrick (R) by 13.3
PA-12
Critz (D) by 1.88
Rothfus (R) by 3
RI-01
Cicilline (D) by 2.83
Cicilline (D) by 10.9
SD-AL
Noem (R) by 12
Noem (R) by 15
TN-04
DesJarlais (R) by 5
DesJarlais (R) by 11.6
TX-14
Weber (R) by 6.25
Weber (R) by 8.9
TX-23
Gallego (D) by 1
Gallego (D) by 4.8
UT-04
Love (R) by 8.19
Matheson (D) by 1.2
VA-02
Rigell (R) by 10
Rigell (R) by 7.6
WA-01
DelBene (D) by 5.25
DelBene (D) by 7.2
WV-03
Rahall (D) by 12.5
Rahall (D) by 7.8
WI-07
Duffy (R) by 6.25
Duffy (R) by 12.2
WI-08
Ribble (R) by 15
Ribble (R) by 11.8
There were a few races that turned out to be close that few had considered vulnerable (though I think CA-33 is questionable):
Close races not rated: Result
CA-16
Costa (D) by 9
CA-33
Waxman (D) by 7.4
HI-01
Hanabusa (D) by 9.2
NE-02
Terry (R) by 2.4
NC-09
Pittenger (R) by 6.1
Looking ahead to 2014, the districts I consider vulnerable are those in which the margin was under 10%, though some of them could have been close because of new constituents following redistricting. Of course circumstances can (and will) change, and districts will be added or removed from this list between now and November 4, 2014.

Here are the Senate seats I consider vulnerable in 2014.

State Incumbent
Alaska
Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas
Mark Pryor (D) – possibly
Colorado
Mark Udall (D) – depends on the challenger
Louisiana
Mary Landrieu (D)
Massachusetts
John Kerry (D) – if appointed Secretary of State
Michigan
Carl Levin (D) – if he retires (he will be 80 in 2014) and depending on the Republican nominee
Minnesota
Al Franken (D)
Montana
Max Baucus (D)
New Hampshire
Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey
Frank Lautenberg (D)
North Carolina
Kay Hagan (D)
Oregon
Jeff Merkley (D) – depends on the challenger
South Dakota
Tim Johnson (D)
West Virginia
Jay Rockefeller (D) – depends on the challenger
Here are the governor seats I consider vulnerable in 2014.
State Incumbent
Arizona
OPEN (R)
Arkansas
OPEN (D)
Colorado
John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut
Dan Malloy (D)
Florida
Rick Scott (R)
Illinois
Pat Quinn (D)
Iowa
Terry Branstad (R)
Maine
Paul LePage (R)
Massachusetts
OPEN (D)
Minnesota
Mark Dayton (D)
Nevada
Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire
Maggie Hassan (D)
Ohio
John Kasich (R)
Oregon
John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania
Tom Corbett (R)
Rhode Island
Lincoln Chafee (I)
Wisconsin
Scott Walker (R)
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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    29 / F / Post-Modern / new CA-31 (hometown) / UT-02 (current) / SSP/RRH: californianintexas
    http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com

    by SoCalGal23 on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 12:41:33 PM PST

  •  If we can get rid of rotten Prince John Kasick, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock, JGibson

    Ohio would be a way better place.

    (R's) take those tired memes and shove 'em, Denise Velez Oliver, 11/7/2012.

    by a2nite on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 12:48:11 PM PST

  •  garamendi's margin is 9.4 and growing (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    by the time solano county's done counting, i expect he'll get pretty close to 10%.

  •  lautenberg is not retiring? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    How old is he?

    " we could go all day with the issues "

    by East Village Blue on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 01:25:24 PM PST

  •  Good job. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Most of your predictions weren't that far off.

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

    by WisJohn on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 01:39:59 PM PST

  •  It looks to me as though your margins in the (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wu ming, MichaelNY

    presidential race were consistently on the low side- most states had higher margins for the winner than you predicted. I don't know if that really holds up statistically.

    Kos said before the election that undecided voters tended to break in the direction of the state's ideology. That is why he thought that Warren was a lock in MA even when the polls were very close.

    This is a great track record, though.

  •  When did you make these predictions? (0+ / 0-)

    If not in the fall of 2010, I think you're implying something a little off base here.

    Jon Husted is a dick.

    by anastasia p on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 02:28:13 PM PST

  •  Al Franken (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I'm surprised you don't see Al Franken as "vulnerable." I think he'll win in the end, but he certainly won't get a free ride.

  •  what was your methodology? and when? (0+ / 0-)

    Otherwise, what is the point to the diary?

    •  I used formula predictions. (0+ / 0-)

      For the presidential race, I:

      (1) Weighed state polls and national polls for the presidential race. Here is an example, using Hawaii.

      HAWAII
      State Pollster

      Merriman River Group/Civil Beat 10/24-10/26: Obama 61, Romney 34 (D+27)

      National Pollster
      Monmouth 11/01-11/04: Obama 48, Romney 48 (EVEN)
      Rasmussen 11/01-11/04: Obama 48, Romney 49 (R+1)
      Washington Post/ABC News 11/01-11/04: Obama 50, Romney 47 (D+3)
      Politico/GWU 10/29-11/01: Obama 48, Romney 48 (EVEN)
      NBC News/WSJ/Marist 11/01-11/03: Obama 48, Romney 47 (D+1)
      Public Policy 11/01-11/03:Obama 50, Romney 47 (D+3)
      United Technologies/National Journal 10/25-10/28: Obama 50, Romney 45 (D+5)
      Fox News 10/28-10/30: Obama 46, Romney 46 (EVEN)
      North Star Opinion Research 10/23-10/25: Obama 47,    Romney 48 (R+1)

      (2) I then averaged the national polls and used them against the state's margin in 2008 (Obama won Hawaii by 45.26%).

      State Adjustment:
      National poll average: 1.11
      2008 margin: 45.26
      Adjusted margin with 2012 national polls: 46.37

      (3) Finally, I weighted the national polls against the state polls. (If there were no state polls, the national-adjusted number would be the prediction.) If there was 1 state poll, I would multiply each by half. If there were 2 state polls, they'd get 2/3 of the share; 3 would get 3/4, etc.)

      State polls: 27.00 x 0.50 = 13.50
      National polls: 46.37 x 0.50  = 23.19

      Prediction: Obama will win by 36.69%.

      For the governor and Senate races I simply averaged the polls. Races without polls I put as safe for the incumbent party.

      For the House races, I weighed pundit ratings with polls (if applicable). No polls meant the average pundit rating (Cook, Sabato, Rothenberg, CQ) would get 100% of the weight, 1 poll would get 50%, 2 polls 67%, etc.

      29 / F / Post-Modern / new CA-31 (hometown) / UT-02 (current) / SSP/RRH: californianintexas
      http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com

      by SoCalGal23 on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 09:00:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  step 2 seems bogus (0+ / 0-)

        For the sake of argument, assume that the national polls were the same as in 2008 (1.11 +D), and the Hawaii state polls were also unchanged.

        With nothing changed from 2008, you'd expect Hawaii to perform the same as it did in 2008.  But you would add 1.11 to the current state poll, for no apparent reason.

        To push this further, what if the national polls in 2008 had Obama ahead by 20 points, and the Hawaii polls had him ahead there by 60, even though he won by 45.26?  Your model would still give the same upbeat results, even though by all measures he would have been doing far worse in 2012 than in 2008.

        That can't be right.

  •  NC governor prediction is interesting... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wu ming

    You predicted that McCrory would win as a Republican, which sounds reasonable since he ran as one.

    But according to your actual results chart, he won as a Democrat!

    So it looks like your prediction on that one was a bit off. But I can't blame you; I don't think anyone could have seen that one coming.

    News coverage continues to refer to McCrory as a Republican, so it looks like he may be trying to keep the party-switch a secret for now...

    [Or perhaps there's a small typo in your chart?]

  •  Snyder (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    So you consider the 2014 Michigan governors race to be safe R?  

  •  If Snyder is not vulnerable (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, JGibson

    then Sandoval probably isn't either.

    I would really watch Texas though.  If Perry decides to run for a fourth term he has several things going against him:

    1) He is unpopular
    2) He is weakened after the pathetic presidential run
    3) He has underperformed significantly in his two most recent races (55% in 2010, same as McCain, in Republicans' best year ever and 39% in 2006 in a four way race)
    4) The people tend to get tired of the same governor after fourteen years in office

    But, we must get a good candidate.  I don't know about Castro though, he might be too liberal.

    VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

    by psychicpanda on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 07:02:20 PM PST

  •  Are there no vulnerable Republican senate seats... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    ... in 2014?

    •  I think there are (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gay In Maine, Zack from the SFV

      Maine is very vulnerable in the event that Collins were to retire. If she runs for reelection, I would initially rate the race Likely R, but if she retires, I think it would start at Lean D. KY-Sen would also start as Likely R but would seem an unlikely pickup, even in the unlikely event that McConnell were to retire or suffer an untimely death (which I think we all hope wouldn't happen). GA-Sen would probably start off Lean to Likely R if Chambliss were to retire. If he got teabagged, depending on who runs for the Democrats, the race might be Lean R. SC-Sen is also a possibility, if Lindsay Graham either retires or is teabagged and the Democrats run a super-strong candidate.

      That's the end of the possibilities, and of the four, the only one that could possibly start with an advantage for the Democrats under any foreseeable circumstances is ME-Sen, in the event that Susan Collins retires or is teabagged. KY-Sen, GA-Sen, and SC-Sen start out as very unlikely wins for the Democrats.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:22:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  There arent vulnerable GOP senate seats (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      in '14 cause we won nearly all of them in '08. Maine is the only one we'll pick up, if Collins retires. Even if folks like Chambliss or Graham get teabagged, Dems arent getting them. Same in Kentucky with McConnell, which I think he'll win his primary, honestly I could care less about the man. I don't which ill will on him, but if something were to happened to him I wouldn't flinch.

      We have to hold alot of tough seats, the only one I see us losing is South Dakota assuming Johnson retires.

       I think Hagan will win in North Carolina. You can already see the rightwing onslaught thats gonna come from that new governor and the state general assembly.

      Landrieu in Louisiana will be tough, but she's the only one who can hold that seat.

      West Virginia, Jay Rock wins if he runs but it wont be a landslide. If he retires and Nat Tennant runs then its 50-50.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:29:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm more optimistic about 2014 senate then (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    earlier. And I don't think Kentucky should be conceded.  Corbett could be vulnerable IF Democrats select a first tier candidate, and not a western Pa. lackluster candidate, as they've done frequently in the past. While they may not run, I'd say Allyson Scwartz or Admiral Sestak meet that criteria, especially from the Democratic inclined Phila. suburbs.

    "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

    by TofG on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 11:08:19 AM PST

  •  Here are my California ratings (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    vs. the (tentative) results. (For how I got my Partisan Factor [PF] ratings, check my predictions.)

    CA-03: R+2.3 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    CA-07: R+5.5 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    CA-09: R+0.8 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    CA-10: R+8.6 (GOP win predicted, GOP win result)
    CA-24: R+3.7 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    CA-26: R+3.8 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    CA-36: R:7.9 (GOP win predicted, DEM win result)
    CA-41: R+0.4 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    CA-47: D+0.7 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    CA-52: R+6.3 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)

    SD-05: R+6.9 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    SD-19: D+0.4 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    SD-27: R+3.0 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    SD-31: R+3.4 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    SD-39: R+0.0 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)

    AD-08: R+4.2 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    AD-16: R+0.6 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    AD-21: R+3.8 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    AD-32: R+4.3 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    AD-40: R+5.8 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    AD-44: R+5.8 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    AD-60: R+8.4 (GOP win predicted, GOP win result)
    AD-61: D+1.4 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    AD-65: R+8.1 (GOP win predicted, DEM win result)
    AD-66: R+4.1 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)
    AD-78: D+4.3 (DEM win predicted, DEM win result)

    29 / F / Post-Modern / new CA-31 (hometown) / UT-02 (current) / SSP/RRH: californianintexas
    http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com

    by SoCalGal23 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 06:27:11 PM PST

    •  If I used the Democrats' high point (Obama 2008) (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      and Republicans' high point (Attorney General 2010), I would peg the Dem wins in districts with PFs no more Republican than R+5. The only difference from the predictions I made using the governor and Senate races from 2010 is CA-36, so I would have batted 1.000 in the competitive U.S. House districts in addition to the competitive Senate districts. The Assembly predictions would remain the same.

      District Registration CPVI 2010 AG PF
      CA-03
      R+2.7
      D+2.8
      R+3.9
      R+1.0
      CA-07
      R+8.0
      R+0.9
      R+8.4
      R+4.3
      CA-09
      R+1.4
      D+4.3
      R+1.8
      D+0.3
      CA-10
      R+8.3
      R+3.8
      R+8.4
      R+5.1
      CA-24
      R+6.4
      D+4.3
      R+5.1
      R+1.8
      CA-26
      R+5.6
      D+4.0
      R+6.2
      R+2.0
      CA-36
      R+8.9
      R+2.1
      R+8.2
      R+4.8
      CA-41
      R+5.7
      D+5.9
      R+0.9
      R+0.2
      CA-47
      R+0.4
      D+6.3
      R+3.7
      D+0.5
      CA-52
      R+7.6
      D+2.5
      R+8.7
      R+3.5
      District Registration CPVI 2010 AG PF
      SD-05
      R+13.2
      D+0.6
      R+5.3
      R+4.5
      SD-19
      R+0.8
      D+7.9
      R+1.5
      D+1.4
      SD-27
      R+3.8
      D+4.7
      R+9.1
      R+2.1
      SD-31
      R+8.0
      D+3.8
      R+4.5
      R+2.2
      SD-39
      R+2.8
      D+8.6
      R+1.1
      D+1.2
      District Registration CPVI 2010 AG PF
      AD-08
      R+5.9
      D+0.0
      R+7.3
      R+3.3
      AD-16
      R+4.1
      D+8.3
      R+3.3
      D+0.2
      AD-21
      R+2.6
      D+2.2
      R+2.6
      R+0.8
      AD-32
      D+3.2
      D+0.3
      R+6.1
      R+0.7
      AD-40
      R+8.5
      D+0.2
      R+8.6
      R+4.2
      AD-44
      R+8.0
      D+2.5
      R+8.5
      R+3.5
      AD-60
      R+12.5
      R+1.1
      R+9.7
      R+5.8
      AD-61
      R+4.3
      D+8.7
      D+0.7
      D+1.3
      AD-65
      R+8.8
      R+1.9
      R+11.6
      R+5.6
      AD-66
      R+5.1
      D+2.8
      R+10.5
      R+3.2
      AD-78
      D+0.2
      D+12.0
      D+4.5
      D+4.2

      29 / F / Post-Modern / new CA-31 (hometown) / UT-02 (current) / SSP/RRH: californianintexas
      http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com

      by SoCalGal23 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 06:33:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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