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9:37 AM PT: Pres-by-CD: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to announce the first two official installments in our effort to compile presidential results for all 435 congressional districts. The main link will take you to our complete chart, which we'll be updating continually until this project is complete. To get things started, two states have already certified their election returns, so that's allowed us to go ahead an crunch the numbers in Georgia and Oklahoma. A word on each (as well as links to our detailed spreadsheets) just below:

Georgia provided us with a happy surprise, in that the entire state now allocates all early votes and absentee votes by precinct. (Previously, only Gwinnett County did so.)  This helps us improve the precision of our numbers greatly: Early votes and absentees comprised more than half the vote in many counties in 2008 and the precinct-by-precinct distribution had to be modeled mathematically. Now, though, we can simply use actual tallies.

The state itself swung about 1.5 points away from the President, but it's interesting to see where the dropoff occurred... and didn't occur. The Appalachian-flavored 9th district saw the greatest swing from McCain to Romney (about 4 points), but Obama actually approved his standing in three of the state's four black-majority districts (the Macon/Albany-based 2nd, and the suburban Atlanta-based 4th and 13th). The fourth majority black district, the Atlanta-proper based 5th, saw a slight swing towards Romney. That may be attributable to the sizable swath of urban whites in the district (the swing was more pronounced in DeKalb and Fulton Counties), among whom the President's numbers were not as resilient (as among black voters); indeed, the president's numbers improved in the Clayton County part of the 5th.

• In Oklahoma, we can see that GOP Rep.-elect Markwayne Mullin had quite the tailwind in OK-02, with Romney outpacing Obama by more than 35 points. The floor is really fell out from this ancestrally Democratic territory, seeing as Obama's performance dropped the most here of any seat in the state. (And it shows you just how impossible a hold this was for Team Blue when Rep. Dan Boren decided to retire.) On the other end, Obama held the line in the OKC-based OK-05, losing by almost exactly the same margin as in 2008.


10:29 AM PT: NC-LG: Though she trailed by less than the 10,000-vote threshold that would have allowed her to request a recount, Democrat Linda Coleman has conceded the North Carolina Lt. Governor's race to Republican Dan Forest. It was still quite a squeaker, with Coleman losing by less than two-tenths of a percentage point. She also evidently was successful in distancing herself from the gubernatorial ticket, seeing as Democrat Walter Dalton lost to Republican Pat McCrory by over 11 points.

10:44 AM PT: CA-Sen: A while back, the Daily Kos Elections crew idly speculated about which politician might have received the most votes in any single election other than for president. We figured it had to be in CA (the largest state, natch), and we also figured it was probably a relatively recent Senate contest. Turns out the new record was just set by Dem Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who, as Greg Giroux points out, has now beaten fellow Dem Sen. Barbara Boxer's 2004 record of 6,955,728. At last count, DiFi had 6,968,383 votes, good for 62 percent overall against Republican Elizabeth Emken.

11:27 AM PT: FL-13: While the final results of Democrat Jessica Ehrlich's underfunded campaign weren't much of a shocker, here's something notable: Her 58-42 loss to ultra-veteran GOP Rep. Bill Young was the second-narrowest victory of his lengthy career, and the tightest since 1992. If the 81-year-old Young (who first won office in 1970) decides to retire soon, Ehrlich, a 38-year-old former congressional staffer and first-time candidate, might have performed just well enough to set herself up for a second run at this seat. Indeed, she isn't ruling out a repeat bid, and even Young said, "I told her I expect to see her name (on a ballot) again in the future."

11:53 AM PT: NYC Mayor: One of the few big-name races taking place in 2013 is for mayor of New York City, though the contest has, in some ways, been slow to take shape, partly because it's hard to gain attention for an off-year election while you still have a presidential battle to focus on. But all that's starting to change, and now there's one sizable development worth mentioning: Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer says he'll run for city comptroller instead of mayor. Early polls showed Stringer faring poorly in a hypothetical Democratic primary, and it was hard to see a path to victory for him.

The comptroller's seat should be open, though, since the current occupant, John Liu, still intends to seek Gracie Mansion, despite the serious ethical issues he's been facing for a while regarding his campaign finance practices. Liu actually praised Stringer's move, as did just about everyone else who's likely to run for mayor, including City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, and former Comptroller Bill Thompson, all in a bid to woo Stringer's supporters. I doubt we'll ever be able to determine conclusively whether any of this matters, though.

(By the way, if you're wondering about the Republican field, the New York Times mentions a few possibilities: community newspaper publisher Tom Allon, former Bronx borough president Adolfo Carrión, Jr., and non-profit founder George McDonald.)

12:05 PM PT: For a more detailed look at possible GOPers, though, you'll want to check out Colin Campbell's piece in Politicker.

12:06 PM PT: CA-07: Just a little wrap-up note: When the race in CA-07 was initially called last Thursday night, GOP Rep. Dan Lungren refused to concede to Democrat Ami Bera. But he apparently had a change of heart overnight, because he wound up making a concession on Friday.

12:29 PM PT: UT Redistricting: At long last, Utah Republicans have released 16,000 pages worth of documents related to redistricting that Democrats had demanded be made public. If you'd like to take a look yourself, the documents are all here. And if you find anything interesting, Robert Gehrke of the Salt Lake Tribune is asking that you drop a comment here to flag the relevant document.

12:43 PM PT: LA-03: One more congressional election still awaits us: the Dec. 8 runoff between GOP Reps. Charles Boustany and Jeff Landry in Louisiana's 3rd District. There haven't been many fireworks to report since election night, when Boustany led a five-way field with 45 percent of the vote to Landry's 30 percent, and this latest "news" is of a piece: Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal says he won't endorse either man. However, third-place finisher Ron Richard (a Democrat who took 22 percent) has thrown his support behind Boustany.

1:48 PM PT: AK-Sen: This is very interesting to see: Dem Sen. Mark Begich, who faces a helluva re-election battle no matter whom he faces, is going bold with a serious plan to protect Social Security from meddling conservatives and centrist hacks as their "fiscal cliff" dissembling begins in earnest. This is no Third Way malarkey: Begich actually wants to increase benefits and raise the cap on high-income contributions. If Begich is calculating that a campaign based around full-throated support for Social Security offers him a path to victory, then I look forward to seeing him pick that very fight.

1:51 PM PT: I'm not even going to tag this story—you just have to read it yourself. And if you're not at work, here's the obligatory companion video.

1:56 PM PT: NYC Redistricting: Final redistricting maps are now available for the city council in America's biggest town—New York, of course. Colin Campbell's initial take is that it's an incumbent protection map—unsurprising, given that the technically independent commission responsible for it is mostly made up of council appointees. A formal vote on the map won't come until later, but naturally, it's expected to pass easily. And CUNY Graduate Center's Center for Urban Research also has their usual "comparinator" tool, which allows you to examine the old and new maps side-by-side.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Hinojosa (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Any thoughts?

    The simple method that I used was to take the county results for President from the counties that are wholly in the district (Guadalupe, Karnes, Live Oak, Duval, Jim Hogg, and Brooks) plus half of the votes from Wilson (because approximately half the population of that county is in the district) and then add either A or B to give a lower or upper bound of Obama performance.

    A: 1/3 of Romney and Obama votes from Hidalgo, because the county is split three ways, though not exactly equally. This method gives Obama 49% of the two party vote.

    B: 2/3 of Romney and Obama votes from Hidalgo, because the county isn't split evenly and this district has the largest portion (but I don't think quite 2/3 of the county). This method gives Obama 55% of the two party vote.

    It'd simply be astounding to see Obama lose the 15th.

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

    by wwmiv on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 06:05:14 AM PST

    •  I'm not exactly sure what you're getting at (0+ / 0-)

      but I don't see the President underperforming Hinojosa by 11 points. I would have a hard time believing he lost or even only narrowly won.

      Would the Wilson County results be similar to those of the whole district there? There seems to be an assumption that halving that is ok (while you play with different ratios for Hidalgo).

      28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 09:52:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  ... (0+ / 0-)

        Yeah, Wilson county is homogenous.

        I think the likelihood is that Obama got around 54-55% here. Hinojosa overperforming the President would not be a surprise at all.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:09:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Also (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades, kman23

    http://www.forbes.com/...

    Has anyone heard of this?

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

    by wwmiv on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 06:12:58 AM PST

  •  Conservatives still seem angry at Christie (9+ / 0-)

    Drudge Report apparently criticized his SNL appearance. I think his presidential chances in 2016 are over. Assuming he wanted to run or still does.

    I said before, Charlie Crist was opposed by the GOP for much less. And Christie's problem going forward is he will have to win re-election in a blue state, and thus probably will  have to move a bit to the left to do so. It wouldnt surprise me if he implemented a state healthcare exchange or expanded Medicaid. And he has talked about possibly raising taxes to pay for the damage caused by Sandy.

    •  MA is bluer and Romney governed more as a moderate (4+ / 0-)

      than Christie governs NJ. Didn't stop Romney from winning.

      However, I agree Christie's not going to win the 2016 primary. From the right, they've had 2 straight elections with a "moderate" choice on their side. They don't think it's working and now have 2 recent cases. I bet they go with a full-bore conservative in 2016. Makes me hopeful for the Dems in 2016 when they arguably should be underdogs since it's rare for the same party to win the WH 3 times in a row.

      •  The 2016 field will be stronger than 2012 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        If Scott Walker wins re-election in 2014, he is probably the frontrunner for the 2016 primary, if he chooses to run.

        Rubio was just in IA so it looks like he will run too.

        And it's more than just Christie's moderation, it's his praise for Obama. Many feel that cost Romney the election, or at the very least, was a disloyal act.

        •  Call the Waahmbulance! (9+ / 0-)

          Seriously, what was Christie supposed to do after Sandy?  Make up some bogus criticism of Obama or tell him "screw off, there's an election coming up and I don't want you to look good so I won't take FEMA help"?  

          Grow the fuck up already, GOP.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 09:03:32 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  There's no frontrunner, not Walker or otherwise (12+ / 0-)

          The GOP nomination really has never been more wide-open.  The next-most wide-open was 2008, but as it went McCain had been the unofficial runner-up in 2000, and that proved more important than it seemed until he won the New Hampshire primary.

          The closest thing we have to a "natural successor" this time is Paul Ryan, but I doubt anyone thinks he has any kind of advantage over so many other wannabes.  Being just a Congressman hurts him, and he's no more a golden boy than Rubio or so many others.  Ryan was a Congressman on a losing Presidential ticket, I doubt his natural strength is any greater than Dan Quayle's in '96 (and Quayle was actually VP).

          Regarding Christie, this recent apostasy won't necessarily hurt him at all in 2016.  No one will blame him long-term for Romney losing, they'll all blame Romney directly, and eventually accept/rationalize that Christie was just being a practical Governor after Sandy.

          What's interesting about the GOP in is that it's a given they will nominate someone who has never before run for President.  That's a first in my lifetime.  Their last nominee who never ran before was Barry Goldwater, I think (he didn't run in '60, right?).  I guess you can count Ford in '76, but I don't think that counts since he was the actual sitting President at the time, rendering meaningless the lack of a previous run.

          And I think not having a serious choice with experience running before could be a real liability for the GOP, they won't know what to do.  On our side, every Democratic President in my living memory got elected on his very first try!  But I suspect GOP voters might not choose a nominee so wisely.

          We likely will have someone who's never run before, but of course all the Biden and Hillary talk makes that more dubious to assume at this stage.  I actually think Biden is no worse than 50-50 odds of actually running, he's making it clear he still wants it.  Hillary has made it clear she doesn't, and it will take people close to her aggressively trying to change her mind to make it happen.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:07:17 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I 100% agree with your take (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zack from the SFV, askew

            Particularly regarding Biden and Clinton. It's always been so weird to me that so many people will simultaneously just assume that Hillary Clinton will run and that Joe Biden won't (especially given that Biden has already run twice now, and even with Clinton running, he's probably still in better shape to win this time around than he ever was in either 2008 or 1988).

            Clinton, as you say, clearly doesn't want to run, and I would even go as far as to say that if she is goaded into running, she'll end up being a lot weaker than a lot of the people who are talking her up think she'll be. It's hard to try to run a campaign if your heart isn't in it (and this is especially true of a presidential campaign). So even if Clinton gets in, I don't think she's the overwhelming favorite everyone thinks she would be.

            Of course, I don't think that Clinton does run, I think she just wants to retire, I've said this before, but she looks tired more than anything else.

            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

            by NMLib on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:45:34 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Trying too hard to draft "the perfect candidate" (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone

              can really backfire, as we've seen here in Wisconsin this cycle. Mr. (or Mrs.) Perfect starts out way ahead in the polls, and tries to coast to victory. In the case of Thompson, this involved ignoring all sorts of ammo he could have used against Baldwin, not getting his outside groups lined up in time, and not fighting back against a very damaging narrative. We can't afford to repeat these mistakes with a presidential campaign.

              Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

              by fearlessfred14 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:52:33 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  I think Santorum (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, lordpet8, sacman701, askew

            has seen himself as heir-apparent from the day he conceded the nomination.
            I would NOT count him out.

            •  Who would give him money? (0+ / 0-)
              •  Well I'm sure the social conservative groups will (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Zack from the SFV

                "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

                by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:41:36 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Try again? (0+ / 0-)

                  I think the last two presidential cycles have made it pretty clear that social conservative groups don't have enough money to win without at least some support from within the business wing of the Republican party. And they view Santorum as toxic.

                  •  who says that he needs to win? (0+ / 0-)

                    He will probably just act as a distraction for the main nominee and force the other candidates to move to the right, just like he did this last time around.

                    Considering who consersvative the Republican primary electorate is these days, a guy like Santorum will still have some traction. I'm not saying he will the nomination but he still can influence some of the primaries.

                    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

                    by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:54:30 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

            •  You should count him out (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Terrible mistake to take Santorum seriously, he is a nothingburger.  If he could be taken seriously, he would've beaten Mitt this time.  He couldn't do that, and he didn't come remotely close, so he has zero chance of primary voters taking him seriously against a stronger field in 2016.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 05:20:22 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Goldwater did make some rumblings in '60 (0+ / 0-)

            "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

            by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:45:59 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Can't you feel the Tommymentum?! :P (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, Zack from the SFV
            What's interesting about the GOP in is that it's a given they will nominate someone who has never before run for President.
          •  George W. Bush got elected (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, jncca, abgin, DCCyclone

            on his first try.

            28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

            by bumiputera on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:12:51 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  But Dubya had his family name and Rolodex (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera

              helping him out

              Gave him an important edge

              •  More than the Rolodex (0+ / 0-)

                He had the Texas financing. That's huge for a Republican. He had all the money he needed and could easily outspend anyone else in the primary.

                (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

                by kman23 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 05:30:03 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  I forgot that, which is easy to do because... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              ...he's "George Bush," his father's namesake, so that he wasn't remotely unknown in the same way almost any first-time candidate is.

              But in that regard he still fits my thesis, because he was unique, a member of GOP political royalty such that he's held to a lower standard, given the benefit of doubt by his party that he's worthy.  Such is the case also with Jeb.  And on our side, with Hillary.  And before the Clintons, it was the Kennedys who received that benefit of doubt.  And we see the same on the state-level, many states have families who are political royalty where the members are taken for granted as worthy candidates for high office.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 11:29:48 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Forgot George W. Bush (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            But good analysis anyway.

          •  I'm 100% opposite of you on Biden and Clinton (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv

            Which is weird cuz I agree with almost everything else you say. I think the reason Hilary is leaving the cabinet is to re-charge before a Presidential race. I think right now she's tired but she knows deep down she still wants it and she's getting herself ready for a race. SOS didn't satisfy her political ambitions enough to kill her lifelong ambition to become President. I think eventually that plus Bill urging her on plus her huge number of supports plus her wanting to keep the presidency in Democratic hands gets her to run.

            Biden on the other hand has from Day 1 (to his credit) been Obama's biggest supporter and that takes him out of the Presidential running. If he was considering running for President you'd see him want to get some separation from Obama (to the left or the right) just to prove he's his own guy. I also honestly don't think he could win either the Democratic primary (especially if Hilary ran but even without her running) and especially not the general. He got destroyed in 2008 and while he's now the VP and not a career Senator, he has to know that being VP is leaving the game (as a national candidate, I could see him run for Governor one day) at the highest point for him.

            In either case both primary campaigns (assuming Hilary doesn't run) will be wide open and really shape the future of both parties.

            (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

            by kman23 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 05:28:55 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Being VP (0+ / 0-)

              didn't sink George HW Bush's chances. The reason I think Biden wouldn't win is that he is just not a good enough candidate. His gaffes will be magnified if he is again a presidential and not a vice-presidential candidate.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 09:46:27 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Biden's problem is that he isn't seen as (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                uclabruin18, MichaelNY

                presidential.  He's a very bright guy.  But nobody takes him seriously enough; he doesn't have the gravitas.

                19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                by jncca on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:00:19 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  He's not thinking about 2016 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        he's thinking about 2013

        VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

        by psychicpanda on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:37:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think Christie does a big mistake (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

          I would not be surprised if he has a well funded primary this year. All the conservative groups want him out for 2016, and if he loses in 2013, that will be game over for him. There are big advantages for the conservative groups challenging Christie in 2013.

          •  I don't agree with you (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca

            because the Tea Party is just not that strong in New Jersey. Relative to the rest of the country, Republicans are less extreme in New Jersey.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 09:47:24 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              NJ has one of the five least conservative Republican parties.  To be fair, we once said that about Maine, and LePage is their Governor.  But on the whole, I'd say the five most moderate Republican parties are all in the Northeast.

              19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:02:55 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  The question is the outside money (0+ / 0-)

                Unfortunately the presidential primaries in 2012 were too late to see the effect of the real fight. Only Romney and Paul were active.

                And since 2009 we have only a senate race without high profile candidates, but the result of the the 2009 republican primary for governor is not as clear for telling that the extreme right has not room in New Jersey. Then C Christie runs as a conservative candidate, anand he was backed buy people like Carl Rovend the conservative money.

                Now that can change. Karl Rove critizized him publicly.

                •  I don't think you understand (0+ / 0-)

                  Only a minority of voters in New Jersey Republican primaries are extremists. It doesn't matter how much money Rove spends if Republican voters won't vote for some extreme person who runs against Christie.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 02:13:41 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Well, I think the Republican primaries are not (0+ / 0-)

                    about being extremist. I think the Republican primaries are more about being enough conservative, about being the true conservative in the race.

                    And until now, to give some love to Obama has being sign of becoming unelectable in a Republican primary.

                    I expect not an extremist in the style of the south, but the north east has a decent number of primary loser because they were not enough conservative.

                    And all is not about defeating him in the primary. If he has a contested primary he can lean to the right in order to win the primary, but that can make him unelectable in the general.

                    •  Every moderate Republican has been underfunded (0+ / 0-)

                      Every moderate Republican candidate that survived not in a primary has been underfunded until now. Even O Snowe. They raised not enough money for doing a competitive race.

                      It is the same trouble that will have S Collins and it is the same trouble that can have now C Christie.

                      Who in the Republican side will give money to S Collins if she will likely be the first Republican going with the Democrats and helping to Obama in a close chamber? The big majority of the Republican donors will have more confidence in a candidate from Arkansas, West Virginia or even North Carolina trying to unseat a Democrat in 2014.

                      C Christie was well wiewed by the conservative movements in 2009 and even until now, but the last events help not him. I think his fundraising ways can be affected. I think he is vulnerable.

                    •  Then maybe you haven't been watching NJ (0+ / 0-)

                      Republican primaries closely. When was the last time an extremist candidate for state-wide office beat a relative moderate in a statewide primary in NJ?

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 12:08:29 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Maybe in the primaries for Governor 2009? (0+ / 0-)

                        Then C Christie run not as a moderate in the primary.

                        And in the general he underperforms comparing with the national numbers of his cycle.

                        •  Just this was his appeal (0+ / 0-)

                          He runs as enough conservative for the extremist groups in 2009, clearly to the right of Snowe, Collins, Rell and others. Even he runs to the right of F LoBiondo. And he wins.

                          Then he was supported by the conservative groups, like S Brown, M Kirk, P LePage and others.

                          •  LePage? (0+ / 0-)

                            LePage wasn't even Governor until 2011. Mark Kirk and Scott Brown are clearly moderates within the Republican Party, and their endorsements - like endorsements from Snowe, Collins, or Rell - would have no important impact on primary voting in New Jersey. The endorsement of Former New Jersey Governor - and moderate Republican - Tom Kean could have had some impact, and perhaps Rudolph Giuliani's endorsement, too (another moderate Republican) could have helped a bit in the New York City market.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 12:48:54 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  No-one of them runs as moderate in 2010 (0+ / 0-)

                            for the higher level office. Only Brown try later to give a more moderate point to his voting record. But not in the way of Snowe, Collins or Rell. If I'm not wrong the voting record of Kirk as senator is to the right of the voting record of Heller as example.

                            LePage was mayor before 2011. A little city, but not as little for Maine standards.

                            The people seems to be moving the sense of the word moderate to the right, following the evolution of the Republican party. Then Brown, Kirk or the Christie of 2009 can be called moderate, but I think this would be not a real calification. Obviously no-one of them runs by the way of Inhofe, but I would not call them moderate.

                          •  Christie is not moderate in the sense that Kean (0+ / 0-)

                            was, but he was the more moderate major candidate in the Republican primary, and I'm saying that he's the right sort for New Jersey Republicans.

                            Kirk hasn't voted many times as a senator but had a moderate record for a House Republican.

                            You now seem to be focusing on the national Republican Party. I'm focusing on New Jersey specifically and telling you that the chances that Christie would be defeated in a Republican primary as a sitting governor seem to me to be vanishingly low.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:54:09 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I tell somewhere before (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            that some conservative group can realize that 2013 gives a good chance of eliminating him for the race of 2016.

                            I would not rule out a well funded primary. Even without high chance of winning, because it would be not to win the primary, it can be more about to see Christie losing the race.

                            To primary him would make Christie to move to the right, in order to win the primary, and that can make him unelectable in the state.

                            I think a decent number of conservative strategists can be thinking about this.

                          •  We shall see. n/t (0+ / 0-)

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:35:10 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  You're wrong about 2009 (0+ / 0-)

                          Christie main opponent was Steve Lonegan, a hard-right candidate, and Christie, running clearly to his left, drubbed him. Christie may not be all that moderate, but he was moderate enough for New Jersey Republicans, who have rejected hard-right underdogs in statewide primaries for Governor over and over again.

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 12:44:13 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  I give some link to news where Christie (0+ / 0-)

                            appears close to Karl Rove. Lonegan was close to a some dude candidate. His defeat means not Christie was running as moderate.

                            A Karl Rove candidate is not a moderate candidate.

                          •  But Christie did run to Lonegan's left (0+ / 0-)

                            I remember the campaign vividly. I live in New York and heard plenty of campaign ads and media coverage. Plus, Lonegan was Mayor of Bogota, NJ, not a "some dude."

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:55:31 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Bogota NJ is like a half of the city of LePage ) (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            (Sorry by the joke)

                            It is under 10,000 inhabitants. Not a big political weigth.

                            I re-read my comments, I was telling that Christie runs as conservative, but not that he would be running to the left of Lonegan. I think both things are compatible. But I think that gives not the moderate label to Chirstie in 2009.

                            In the current GOP I have hard time finding moderates. I see a politician with less than 25% in the progressive rating for the lifetime and I can not call him a moderate.

                            More recent events can make him appear as a moderate, but in a false position. Until now the Republicans hate that in the primaries.

                            In a normal cycle (not in a Republican wave), the Republicans have very hard time winning races in D+2 constituencies. For me C Christie is out of the kind of constituency that a Republican can win today, if the race is contested.

                            I think the race will be contested, strongly contested. It is a need of the Democratic Party.

          •  If Christie is primaried this year, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            that will be a sign that the base of the party isn't even close to being weakened. Christie seems to be their only chance at winning in the state, and he's the incumbent. If you want to win, you don't challenge a guy like that unless he's plagued by scandal.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 07:07:31 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  my point is that now (0+ / 0-)

              now Christie has some mistake that would make harder for him to be elected, and someone can think that 2013 is the right moment to eliminate him from the 2016 presidential fight, without care too much about losing 2013 race.

              I would not be surprised if he has a primary. That would make the race a lot more difficult for Christie, because he should need to go to the right in order to win the primary with the risk of becoming unelectable in the state.

              Some conservative group can realize that spending now two or three millions they can let out the frotrunner between the moderate bench of the party. In 2016 two or three millions will be nothing.

              I see not Christie as safe. The same about Collins. She is by far the Republican with the less conservative voting record, especially in the last cycle. I think their fundraising sources are damaged. I think they have hard work getting reelected. As hard as Tester as example, or even more because the Republican basis love not the RINOs.

    •  They do not want him to run as an indy (0+ / 0-)

      That would really hurt their nominee's chances.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 09:56:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  let me make the Christie comparison for if he runs (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

      Rudy Giuliani 2008 without the 9/11.

      I just don't think the New Jersey thing is gonna play very well in the traditional starting states and he wouldn't handle criticism in the 900 debates well enough to avoid stepping on something.

      Not to mention that Christie has the same sort of problems as Romney with trust from social cons, but without as much audio and paperwork, and probably no where near as much smoothness or willingness to please people who dislike him from the right.

      Christie is still one of their stronger candidates, so the party nuking him early is very helpful.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 12:56:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  A list of the successful GOP attempts (14+ / 0-)

    to take out Jim Matheson? Most informative.

    British guy with a big interest in US politics; -1.88, -4.05. A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar. The bartender says "Hey Mitt".

    by General Goose on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 07:25:00 AM PST

  •  Nevada results by CD (16+ / 0-)

    NV-01: Obama 65.65% / Romney 32.40% / Johnson 1.07%
    NV-02: Romney 52.83% / Obama 44.84% / Johnson 1.20%
    NV-03: Obama 49.53% / Romney 48.73% / Johnson 1.07%
    NV-04: Obama 54.42% / Romney 43.76% / Johnson 0.95%

  •  Connecticut results by CD (10+ / 0-)

    CT-01: Obama 63.3%, Romney 35.5%
    CT-02: Obama 55.9%, Romney 42.6%
    CT-03: Obama 62.6%, Romney 36.3%
    CT-04: Obama 55.1%, Romney 44.0%
    CT-05: Obama 54.1%, Romney 44.8%

  •  Speculation time! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285, MichaelNY

    Who do you think will run for House, Senate, or Governor in any 2014 race you choose.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 07:46:54 AM PST

    •  KY-Sen (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sawolf

      SoS ALG will ultimately take a pass; Auditor Edelen will run, and the field will be clear of meaningful opposition to him in the primary. McConnell will not face significant inter-party opposition.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 08:02:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  ALG may take a pass, but I don't (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        think Edlen wants to run. He's been publicly backing a Grimes run.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 08:07:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  He wants to run (7+ / 0-)

          but has been talked out because the establishment prefers ALG -- so do I, since she's the only candidate outside of Beshear who could win, although I think she's too cautious and calculating to challenge McConnell. Particularly in a year she won't be able to be afforded much national help -- and Edelen is just officially unofficially ending his officially unofficial campaign by talking up ALG. It's his way of admitting defeat in the unofficial primary that happened over the last few months.

          But if she didn't run, he'd be back in it in a heartbeat. Unlike ALG, his ambition is reckless. Besides, he probably couldn't win a more competitive primary against any of the other major statewide elected officials. He realizes he needs to take the chance he's given.

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 08:18:54 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Seems like good analysis (0+ / 0-)

            n/t

          •  Why wouldn't there be national help (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Woody, Zack from the SFV

            for whomever runs against McConnell? I would think that race would get major funding if there's any kind of serious candidate on the Democratic side.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 09:30:01 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It should happen (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              WisJohn, lordpet8, jncca, MichaelNY

              McConnell deserves to have a strong run against him, just as payback, even if the chance of defeating him may still be quite small.  And as the Senate races in Missouri and Indiana showed, you just never know what will come out of someone's mouth. Of course, McConnell is an "old pro" at this game, but note the "old" part. If he misses a nap he just might embarrass himself badly. He should not have said out loud that the first priority was to make Obama a one-term President. We need another couple of gaffes of that order and we're good to go.

              The other good reason to make a run at McConnell is that there are so few other potential targets. A third of the seats up in 2014 are in the former Confederacy or its allied territories like Kentucky. The Democrats will not be spending much in Greater Dixie, or anywhere else, trying to pick up a lot of seats, so might as well take a hard shot at McConnell.

            •  Because of how many seats we'll be defending (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, lordpet8, MichaelNY

              She won't be badly funded, but it's doubtful HMP or the DSCC will be making big investments (of course, they'd invest if it looked seriously competitive, but it'd probably take a bit of investment to find out if it could be competitive.)

              (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

              by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:03:48 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Is Crit Luallen still in the mix? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I heard her name tossed around in the past, but rarely mentioned these days. Is there a reason? Would she be a strong nominee if she ran?

            My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

            by terjeanderson on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 09:30:38 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  ALG should challenge Barr and (0+ / 0-)

            then, hopefully after winning, should take on Paul in 2016.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 07:11:08 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Why (0+ / 0-)

              Why would she want to waste resources on a risky run for a congressional seat, throwing away her high profile statewide office, just to throw it away two years later to run statewide again? She might do one or the other, but both doesn't make much sense.

              (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

              by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 05:37:30 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  GA-DamnNearAnything (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Woody

      I seriously don't have the faintest clue.  We're a state that has given the Democratic presidential candidate roughly 47% and 46% respectively in the past two elections yet we have next to nothing in terms of viable statewide candidates who aren't retreads (e.g., Roy Barnes, Thurbert Baker, Carol Porter, etc.) or just worthless (e.g., John Barrow).  

      I really think we should actually write off some of these downballot, statewide offices because we just don't have the friggin' money nor the recruitment.  Instead, build a bench.  There are several poachable State House districts, I think (e.g., 37th, 95th, 101st, 105th, 107th, 109th, 111th, 138th, 144th, 145th, 151st)

      •  Worthless? (8+ / 0-)

        Barrow would be a very strong statewide candidate. I guess you mean that he's far to the right for a Democrat. But he'd still be better than any Republican. I hope he stays where he is, though, because I don't think any other Democrat could win his district.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 09:31:30 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why focus on the state leg (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          where Republicans have huge majorities?  I see what you mean about building a bench, but electing more Dems to the state house is still not very useful when they're in the minority.

          Any good mayors?

          VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

          by psychicpanda on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:44:31 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It'll be nice to remove their supermajority (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            and it would only take one pickup in either house. But it's probably better to focus on local governments in the Atlanta Metro where suburban Democrats can make more of a difference for their constituents.

            Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

            by fearlessfred14 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:58:28 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Terrible reasoning. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Not flipping the state legislature right away shouldn't mean we don't try to flip what seats we can. We absolutely should, both because doing so inches us closer to flipping the chambers in question and helps us build a bench for federal races.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 07:17:24 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  worthless may not be the right word (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, MichaelNY, bjssp

        The fact that he keep surving here is telling. The way Republicans keep trying redistrict him to defeat actually might be helping him build up statewide cred for the future.

        Georgia is still a hard state to crack, the problem is with maxing out our turnout with minorities. But even when we do that we still fall short, there's still enough consersavative white R's to counter to us.

        As you say we definitely should build up our bench at the state legislative level, that the same thing the Dems did in colorado.

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:05:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  it's never a bad idea to focus on the state lege (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCal, bumiputera, MichaelNY, bjssp

        but "downballot, statewide offices" are worth it.  They add a bit to the bench (some can move into higher office, though many don't) and also have significant affects on policy.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:14:38 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  You can do all of that at the same time. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Building a bench in the state shouldn't preclude us from trying to flip House seats and the Senate seat.

        We won't have much of a bench for statewide races now, at least not one filled with current office holders, but our retreads aren't bad candidates. The bigger question is, will we devote enough resources to give our candidate a shot?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 07:14:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  WA-01 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack

      King Co. Council member Reagan Dunn could put up a significant challenge to Suzan Del Bene by cutting into her King County numbers and carrying the rest of the R-leaning portions of the district.

    •  I'd like to see a (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bfen, MichaelNY

      Virginia Foxx and Patrick McHenry primary race for North Carolina senate. Both of them are pretty goofy - the crazy right wing grandma and the dufus man/boy. It'd be funny plus the winner would most likely loose to Kay Hagan in the general election and then both would be out of office.

      •  Virginia Foxx's potential senate candidacy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        would set new records for hilarity and bigoted insanity. I think the only people hoping for that more than us might be the writers of a show like "The Daily Show."

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 07:19:37 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  FL-18: West's strength (4+ / 0-)

    So Allan West did lose, though he may never admit it to himself. :-)  

    Still, the vote WAS close.  I was expecting a more solid win for Murphy.   How was West able to make the end result so close?  Was he really that popular in FL-18?

  •  SC-HD-78: Blueprint to Oust Haley (4+ / 0-)

    I don't live in SC house district 78.  But I stumbled onto a newspaper article about an upset Dem win in that district that could be a blueprint to beat Gov. Nikki Haley in 2014.

    Anyone out there with an informed view of SC politics?  I'd like to here some comment on this article.

    •  I love how the Republicans in that article are (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Inkan1969, KingofSpades

      saying that "Well, it was in a really Democratic county, it should be no surprise".  Yeah, because all parts of counties vote uniformly.  

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 08:22:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  SC-Gov (6+ / 0-)

      It's been an assumed conclusion by everyone that Vincent Sheheen will run again for Governor in 2014, and I think the race is a Tossup if he goes for it. He ran a pretty good campaign in 2010, and Haley just hasn't been able to get her act together. The fact that she only won 51-47 in the reddest wave election in a century is a testament to her weakness. She can't even consolidate her own Republican base, and Sheheen has been an effective party leader even as the party has bottomed out statewide. It'll be a competitive race to be sure, and I think there are a lot of different directions from which to take Haley on. I think HD-78 is important insofar as showing that Haley is toxic among Democrats and a lot of independent voters, and I think it's a valid point that ethics and school vouchers could be used against her during the campaign. Ethical attacks are the best kind of political attacks, the kind that transcend party lines and strike at the core of a politician. I think it would be an effective approach.

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 08:43:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  hacking (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I expect people to still be mad at her in 2014 because of that fiasco where a computer hacker stole the whole populace's SSN numbers from the Department of Revenue.

        •  The danger (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Inkan1969, terjeanderson, Woody

          of course is that in a state where the Republican bench overflows with ambitious elected officials, her unpopularity and  slightly higher chance than usual for the Dem candidate in the general may prompt some to primary her, since, as you said, she really ain't beloved by most Republicans in the state in the first place

      •  Sheheen (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think Sheheen has a good shot at Gov., because Republicans aren't unified with Haley. The only shot for a Democrat to win statewide here is to run as a conservative and split the Republican vote. Sheheen has a chance, though in this state its no better than 50/50. As for the rest of the Democrat Party here, it's dead!

  •  AZ-02: Why so close? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY, lordpet8, WisJohn

    What have people written up about why the AZ-02 race turned out so close?  

    I think commenters were very impressed with McSally's campaigning skills, and expecting her to go far in AZ GOP politics?  What kind of a Republican is McSally?  Traditional, RINO, tea bagger?

  •  Dave Wasserman's Presidential Results (4+ / 0-)

    Wasserman's Presidential Results as of 11:20 AM on 11/19.  (What do the asterisks stand for?)

    I like to categorize presidential results as 0-10-20 for Light-Solid-Deep, though I don't know if anyone else uses that scale, or how reasonable people find this scale.  As of right now:  my scale looks like this

    DEEP BLUE (Obama >20%)

    VT, MA, RI, NY, MD, DC, HI, CA

    It looks like CA makes it over the cutoff by a couple of points.  I thought Obama might fall short there.

    SOLID BLUE (Obama by 10% - 20%)

    ME, CT, NJ, DE, IL, NM, OR, WA

    It took days, but NM finally crossed the cutoff.  It's now an Obama win by 10.13%.  I was expecting NM to stay solid blue.  So I kept routing for the margin to go up.

    LIGHT BLUE (Obama by <10%)

    NH, PA, VA, FL, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, CO, NV

    Man, Obama's margin in MI is 9.52%.  I really hope they can find more votes to push MI over the cutoff.  And are they ever going to count the provisional ballots in OH?

    LIGHT RED (Romney by <10%)

    NC, GA, MO, AZ

    Obama just managed to keep Romney's margin in MO to  9.62%.   After weeks of counting, Romney's margin in AZ finally slipped below the margin to 9.33%.  Still, so few light red states this year...

    SOLID RED (Romney by 10%-20%)

    SC, MS, IN, LA, TX, SD, ND, MT, AK

    Romney's margin in 10.47% in SC, and 10.03% in IN.  I really hope they can find more Obama votes to push those two states to light red range.  At the other extreme, ND is just missing the deep red range with a 19.62% Romney margin.  I was surprised at how far red the Dakotas swung.

    DEEP RED (Romney by >20%)

    AL, TN, KY, WV, AR, OK, KS, NE, WY, UT, ID

    Actually, TN is just above the border with a Romney margin of 20.41%.  I hope it gets nudged below the border.

  •  Maryland becomes 5th state (11+ / 0-)

    where Obama improved from 2008. (Aside from LA, AK, NJ and MS)

    •  explanations? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      Has anyone written up on why these states went more for Obama in 2012.

      I have read some comments on AK.  It's the one state that outright switched to a bluer one of my categories, from Deep Red to Solid Red.  This should not have surprised me, since the GOP had a Palin-less ticket.  Maybe AK can be flippable in 12 or more years.

      Hmm:  I bet a skilled GOP marketing exec could get some lemonade from the fact that the GOP improved their results in 45 states (plus DC I guess) and in the national popular vote.

      •  Yeah, AK is interesting (9+ / 0-)

        Even in 2008, Obama's 37.89% was the best performance for a Dem in the state since 1968.

        And this year, it improved to 40.39%. Doesnt suggest it will be a swing state anytime soon, but kind of interesting.

        As I recall, in 2008, pre-Palin being selected, there was a poll showing the state close and talk of Obama visiting.

        •  I remember that poll (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY

          It was a Rasmussen poll that showed Obama and McCain tied in AK.   But we couldn't put much value in a poll like that...:-)

        •  Has to be (8+ / 0-)

          Good news for Begich, though, right?

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:10:45 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Begich is the new Tester (7+ / 0-)

            He's personally well-liked at home but has voted mostly with the national party.

            He's going to have run a great campaign to hang on.

            But unlike Tester, there is, at least to my awareness, no one obvious strong challenger already waiting to run.

            We really need to root for Joe Miller to run and to win the primary.

            Problem is, unlike last time everyone will take him as a serious threat and pound on him.  And besides his own other baggage, they can peg him also with the "loser" tag, since he already is one.  That distinguishes him from some other crazy Senate nominee teabaggers of the past couple cycles.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:58:26 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Tester did a brilliant job, though (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

              Of putting daylight between himself and national Dems. I suspect Begich will be able to do so as well. Not that I'm predicting a Begich win or anything like that this far out. (That would be insane.) I just think he's a good campaign who knew, the moment he was elected, that he'd have a hell of a race on his hands in 2014 and has acted accordingly.

              Political Director, Daily Kos

              by David Nir on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 12:01:28 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  he also has a family name that is still known (3+ / 0-)

              in his state, just like Matheson in Utah.

              An interesting quirk for Alaska that no Dem incumbent at the federal level has been defeated by an R since Ralph J. Rivers in 1966.

              Gravel was defeated in a primary, Nick Begich died in a plane crash and R's took both open seats.

              Still might be the race I keep the closest eye on for this cycle.

              "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

              by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 12:01:32 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Hope so (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zack from the SFV, bfen, MichaelNY

            Hopefully, we get a poll from AK soon. The most recent one I could find was from April 2011. A Dittman poll had solid numbers for Begich: 57% rate his job approval "excellent or good".

            I worry about a Lincoln Chafee 2006 situation here. With Begich being popular, but an equally popular GOP opponent who wins because of the lean of the state.

            Will be interesting to see if Murkowski campaigns for any Republican vs. Begich.

        •  Bodes well for Begich, though. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, Woody, MichaelNY
        •  I guess Sao's vote really made a difference. lol! (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, bumiputera, MichaelNY

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:49:02 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I've always thought... (8+ / 0-)

          Alaska was ripe for a partisan realignment.  

          There are three reasons to think Alaska should be Democratic.  

          1.  22% of workers are in unions.  Only New York surpasses this.
          2.  The state is only 64% non-Hispanic white.  It is 19% Native American, 7% Asian, 5% Black and 5% Latino, with the remainder multiracial or other.
          3.  The state is one of the least religious in the country.  27% of the population is irreligious.  Only Wyoming (I know), New Hampshire, and Vermont surpass this.  

          The only demographic factor in the favor of Republicans is the state is more male than average due to the number of migrants, with 108.5males for every 100 females.  But that's it.  

          I think the main issue is that extraction industries, and the dependance upon them, screw up local politics enough that normal affiliation patterns do not develop.  But maybe some Alaskans could chime in.  

          •  also doesn't the state (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, MichaelNY

            also heavily depend on federal pork which sorta puts it at odds with the small-government mindset of the the GOP?

            "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

            by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 12:16:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think that plays a big role... (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8, JGibson, MichaelNY

              In why it's stayed Republican.  The local Republican party has historically been, if not moderate, pro spending, and used pork-barrel politics pretty openly to buy votes in remote areas (similar to how the Dixiecrats worked in the South).  

              This is beginning to change, as the other faction in the state Republican party (tea partiers and libertarians, essentially), defeated a bunch of incumbents in primaries, and took out a few Democrats as well.  We'll see if a more "nationally aligned" state party makes a difference in local politics.  

          •  Bingo. Oil and frontier "libertarianism" (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

            is the name of the game.

            Except when it comes to the federal government giving them money, which is why Joe Miller is such a bad candidate.

      •  It's very easy to explain. (8+ / 0-)

        Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi: HUGE black population, white Repubs had no real reason to turn out since states weren't going to be close (admittedly Georgia and South Carolina, the other two blackest states, the votes fell somewhat, but O improved on '08 outside of Appalachian North Georgia and Fulton [in '08 they targeted Georgia so Fulton had GOTV, also some of the young Atlanta yuppies may have flipped])

        Alaska: Loss of Palin advantage

        New Jersey: Hurricane; Ocean and Monmouth probably had way lower turnout, and also white Repubs may have said "screw it, O's winning the state and I have no power" whereas black Dems were still going to vote no matter what.

        •  AK can't just be lack of Palin, though (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

          Since Palin wasn't on the ticket from 1972 through 2004, either.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:11:17 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I think you nailed it nicely in all those states. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf, askew

          nm

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:14:32 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Good point. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I can see some white evangelicals being less psyched than they were with Palin.  That explains improvement in some areas for Obama (like Desoto County) in pretty much all of MS except for the NE border and the gulf region.  But one consistency is that pretty much all the Black Belt counties across the south showed improvement for Obama.  Look at the 2008-2012 comparison map and you see a river of blue arrows running with the Black Belt.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:57:29 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  not just Palin (7+ / 0-)

          the Bush (rural North/Northwest/Southeast Alaska) switched from Bush 04/McCain 08 to Obama 2012. Places like Barrow and Nome were Bush/McCain cities that appear to have switched to Obama.

          One thing that is happening in the background out of the view of most observers is that the President did very well with Asians, Native Americans and Alaska Natives all over the country. Which should help the Dems to keep California solid (leading to lots of votes). While also helping them build their efforts in Texas. Although most areas with high Native American populations are in typically red states, although it wouldn't surprise me if the margins for Obama from those areas also helped pad the leads for Tester and Heitkamp.

          The fun thing about Alaska is if you look at a map showing the results by legislative district, the state looks super blue, because it's a rare state where the population density of R areas is higher than the population density of D areas

          The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

          by RBH on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 01:05:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Similarly, Obama's biggest drops from '12 (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Inkan1969, jj32, lordpet8, WisJohn, MichaelNY

        were Utah (Mormons flipped to Romney) and West Virginia (Obama did about as badly as McGovern in Appalachia)

      •  Increased black turnout (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        in MD, MS and LA, which may have been (at least a slight) factor in NJ combined with the federal Sandy response; AK 2008 was inflated for the home state candidate on the ticket (who was yet-to-implode completely), until she was announced, the state was seen as mildly competitive.

      •  Alaska (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, BeloitDem, MichaelNY, uclabruin18

        Random theory: could Obama's opposition (however soft it might be) and Romney's support for the Keystone Pipeline, which would send Canadian oil through the US, be a reason why Obama did better? I doubt they want to compete with Alberta's tar sands.

    •  Just a request (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, sawolf

      Not to use the Twitter embed feature, since it makes life hell for people on mobile devices. (This is a known Daily Kos problem. Known for a long time. Sigh.) Interesting tweet, though!

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:10:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Glame's new Wisconsin redistrict diary (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, KingofSpades, lordpet8, WisJohn, sawolf

    Is Glorious.

    Seriously, especially if you're interested in Wisconsin politics, you should read it. It makes me want someone to do a "If redistricting happened after 2008" series.

    •  Already beat you to it :P (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, BeloitDem

      http://www.dailykos.com/...

      But not in as much depth.  I'll probably revisit it and "what if we had national non-partisan maps" soon when I have the time.

      Interestingly, all the scenarios I can come up with result in us having at least 218 seats:
      Redistricting occurs in 2009
      Non-partisan redistricting nationwide
      Partisan control the same as 2009
      Partisan control the same as 2001
      and finally the "don't dummymander Arkansas or recruit John Hernandez in CA-21, etc. etc." scenario that's most realistic.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 01:55:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Here's what might have happened in NC: (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, GloFish, bumiputera

        Photobucket
        Photobucket

        Take note, Obama won all 8 Dem districts in 2008 and all 8 are more Dem than the state on average, 7 of which are at least 4% more.  Basically every seat would be safe since Shuler was getting well entrenched and this district is much more Dem and the same goes for McIntyre and Kissell.

        Or if that 11th district is too crazy, they could have done this:
        Photobucket
        It still improved 1% over Shuler's old district to 47.7% Obama and 48.5% Dem

        In terms of legislative redistricting, I've never taken a shot at it, but I can guarantee you we would have had a much better chance of holding the legislature in 2010 than the court-drawn maps we were running under and we absolutely would have won/held the legislature under a Democratic gerrymander this year.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 02:26:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I just draw a NC map as well (0+ / 0-)

          And it looks very similar to yours. My 11th is a little weaker than yours and the 7th is better at the expense of the 8th.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 12:34:04 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Nice, I had seen your nonpartisan redistricting (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf

        but I'll have to take a look at the 2008 series.

  •  Carmona finally done (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, MichaelNY, dc1000, SaoMagnifico, WisJohn

    This is not really a surprise, but Dave Wasserman tweets that it's no longer possible for Carmona to pull an upset against Flake with the latest figures.

    https://twitter.com/...

    There was some confusion about this - a couple of people thought that Carmona had rescinded his concession, but in fact he just said he and his campaign were keeping an eye on the ballots.

    And with that, I think we are just about done with the exception of final vote totals.

  •  CA36 (9+ / 0-)

    Politico writes profile of Raul Ruiz.
    What I like about this piece is the fact they do adopt my theory that the Medicare thing was key to him getting attention from people in the district.
    And that there is not one word on Thanksgiving or Peltier.

      •  A better Democrat, not just another one (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

        Wish we'd had more doctors running and talking about ObamaCare, Medicare, and Medicaid.

        And very glad we'll have Raul Ruiz in the House. He's not just "not" Mary Bono Mack, though getting rid of any Repub these days is a good start. Looks like he's going to be a good progressive Democrat and contribute on important issues.

    •  with this win along with Takano (3+ / 0-)

      The Inland Empire is no longer the Republican bastion it once was.

      Infact Republican only have only orange county and the Bakersfield as the last two big holdouts in SoCal.

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:27:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kern County (Bakersfield) and OC (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        hankmeister

           Is Kern County even considered to be in SoCal?  I've always thought of it as either part of the Central Valley or else West Oklahoma. Okie jokes aside, doesn't it have enough Latinos that it elects some Democrats to the Legislature at least some of the time? I'm thinking of the lovely but politically unreliable Nicole Parra and also the Florez family. Or are they all from Kings County instead?

             As far as el condado de Naranja, it now has parts that will be represented by two different members of the House, Loretta Sanchez and Alan Lowenthal. We got to two-thirds in the Assembly because of AD-65 in Fullerton where our new Assemblymember-elect, Sharon Quirk-Silva, was the Mayor. Also the Democratic candidates who lost in OC lost by narrower margins than in the past, generally getting more than 40% of the vote. Times are changing. I look forward to the day that the GOP's only strongholds on CA will be Modoc and Siskiyou Counties...

        Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

        by Zack from the SFV on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 01:17:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Obama now only 45,000 away from a 4 million lead (16+ / 0-)

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 09:29:14 AM PST

  •  I'd like to see state leg district numbers for GA. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000

    The GOP I believe has a 2-1 majority in both state leg houses, but I guess they packed blacks (and in parts of Gwinnett, Latinos/Asians [Obama did better in Gwinnett in '12 than anyone since Carter in '76 if I'm not mistaken]) well enough

    •  I mean they packed them pretty well for the CDs (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, lordpet8

      Well packed them where they had to, cracked them between Barrow's district and Kingston's district fairly well (though Barrow did pull out a win), and then split Athens-Clarke to ensure we couldn't beat Broun no matter how insane he gets.

      •  Once again they were distracted (0+ / 0-)

        They were more focused on their new seat, and shoring up some of the new freshman from 2010.

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:28:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I wanna see which districts had good O showings (0+ / 0-)

      but were left uncontested by Ds. I'm sure there's a few in Georgia. If there's any area that needs more contested elections, it's the deep south

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 01:08:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  There are several in the northern Atlanta suburbs (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, bjssp

        including some that probably have D+ PVIs at the federal level. I can do a follow-up to my pre-election diary detailing which ones these are.

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

        by fearlessfred14 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 01:12:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Correction on Georgia (0+ / 0-)

    CD 2 is based in Macon, Columbus, and Valdosta.  Augusta is in CD 12.

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 09:57:03 AM PST

  •  Any races still uncalled, even low-level? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Inkan1969, MichaelNY

    I'm talking anything even on the level of small county executive - just want that one last bit of drama in our lives. Anyone heard word in their local papers or anything?

    How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

    by gabjoh on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:15:26 AM PST

    •  SD-5 in California is still being counted (9+ / 0-)

      It's the Stockton based state senate seat. Galgiani narrowed Berryhill's lead from over 4000, to just over 1000 votes. There are still some ballots to count and all left in San Joaquin County, the only county in the district that Galgiani won.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:22:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That would be an impressive win (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        for Democrats smack dab in the middle of the Valley.  What little I've read shows that people think highly of Galgiani.

      •  so there still is a little a hope (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Gosh if they some how pull out win here, it will be next to impossible for the R's get back to 1/3 in the senate next cycle!

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:29:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Woodruff, SC, Mayor (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      killjoy, bumiputera, MichaelNY, gabjoh

      The mayoral race of Woodruff, SC, has to have a revote.  Is that good enough for you?

    •  There are something like (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, BeloitDem, MichaelNY, gabjoh

      20 or more recounts in NH.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:31:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  the two Iowa legislative recounts (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      both of which are under 40 votes. DesMoinesDem has been talking about them.

    •  What was the race that was tied (0+ / 0-)

      where one of the guy's wife did turn out to vote for him? In Kentucky I think?

    •  well seeing as they are still counting votes (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      in Riverside County, there is one nailbiter county supervisor race.

      Incumbent DINO Bob Buster (who has been in 0ffice since 1992, he's the sole Dem out of my county sups) is narrowly trailing his Howard Jarvis anti-tax association endorsed candidate, Kevin Jeffries

      The latest ballot count from the Nov. 6 general election had Jeffries, R- Lake Elsinore, with 53,199 votes compared to 52,387 for Buster, or 50.38 percent to 49.62 percent.
      http://lakeelsinore-wildomar.patch.com/...

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:33:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  MN House 11B (I think B) (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Hamtree

      Frosh Rep. Mary Franson was leading her DFL challenger by one vote. Recount soon. Also in MN SD-20, Dem leads Repub by 42 votes. Recount

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

      by WisJohn on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:48:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  They might be holding a re-vote in the MO Bootheel (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, WisJohn, MichaelNY

      because the new House District 150 came down to around 1% (116 votes) with the R-incumbent leading the D-challenger (who was the incumbent from 2007 to 2011). The problem? they handed out the wrong ballots at a precinct in the part of the district close to the Ds home*. So the local officials are suing to have them do the election over, presumably sometime in December.

      This is the 2nd time a MO election was marred by having precinct officials screw up the balloting in a split precinct in a close election. The first time was in the primaries and they had to do the primary over in late September.

      (* - due to a quirk in the Missouri constitution and the time that redistricting was completed by, both the R-incumbent and D-challenger were running where while not living in the district, but they were allowed to run because they lived in a county which had the district. The constitutional provision allowing for this dates back to when every county had at least one district, so it's technically outdated but it's kept in place because it benefits politicians having problems with the judge-drawn redistricting)

      So the district is Republican on the Presidential level, and Democratic on the state level. The Democrat won Dunklin (Kennett) by 21 votes and the Republican won Pemiscot (Caruthersville) by 137 votes.

      The Dunklin section is Dunklin except for northern Dunklin (Malden). The Pemiscot section is Pemiscot except for Hayti/Hayti Heights. So it's about 30 minutes from Kennett to Caruthersville.

      The drama is that if Hampton wins, the Rs lead in the House 110-53, two seats over the Veto override margin. If Todd wins, the Rs lead 109-54, one seat over the Veto override margin. Which means that they'd have a harder time sustaining a veto at 109 than at 110.

      And yes, the state elected Ds for Governor/Senator by 15%, elected Ds to 4 of 5 statewide offices, and saw the House drop from 106-57 to 110-53, because we have some flaws in certain areas of the state, dropping seats we should be winning.

      That's drama.

      Also, special election in Iowa (the incumbent R Senator died during the campaign too late to be replaced on the ballot and they're holding a new election in December, so kind of like what happens in Britain when a candidate dies during the campaign)

      And special elections in California to replace Vargas and McLeod in the Senate in a few months.

      Special Elections for the New Orleans City Council too.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 01:21:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  oh yeah (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      they may decide a House Seat in Dona Ana County, New Mexico via a game of chance because the R-incumbent and D-challenger appear to have tied.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 01:23:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  David, you asked (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    why Linda Coleman came so close to winning even though Walter Dalton lost by eleven.  Pat McCrory was qualified, with political experience and skill, something none of the downballot Republicans had.  Most of them were random teabaggers who had never held office before and some of them, I don't even think they knew what they were running for.  Debra Goldman (Republican candidate for NC Auditor) was such a corrupt, unintelligent joke, frankly it's embarrassing for the state that she got 46% of the vote.

    VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

    by psychicpanda on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:10:22 AM PST

    •  Still though, Coleman outperformed the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      top of the ticket the most of any LG candidate of at least the last 20 years if not more (I haven't looked back further).  Also she was very, very underfunded and Forest's name recognition is higher.  I'm frankly amazed that she came that close.

      And yes, it's quite pathetic that Goldman still got 46%, but with McCrory getting 55% that was Republicans' floor in the state this year.  I bet even Cooper would have only gotten around 55% had he faced a competitive challenger.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 02:03:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  In California 1,5 Mio. Ballots are still need (3+ / 0-)

    to be processed.

  •  WV-Sen: Manchin won Ritchie County (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, WisJohn, MichaelNY

    There's three monolithically R counties in the north half of WV: Grant, Ritchie, and Doddridge.  IIRC, not even Rockefeller won those three in 2008 against the total weak candidate he was against.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:53:01 AM PST

  •  My AZ diary should be done tonight. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:53:57 AM PST

  •  What exactly does a Borough President do? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I know it's ceremonial, but what do they actually DO with their position?

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:59:39 AM PST

  •  Check this out about California.... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    http://www.sos.ca.gov/...

    Only 12 Counties have completed tabulatating their Nov. 6th General Election Results.

    •  It's a helpful page to see who is done (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      but it is behind in terms of who isn't done, despite saying it was updated this morning.

      Santa Cruz County says they have 8800 provisionals left
      http://www.votescount.com/
      with the last update as of the 15th.  The state's unprocessed ballots page says there are 41k left to count, as of the 13th, and the results page only shows data from the 7th
      http://vote.sos.ca.gov/...

      The county results page
      http://www.votescount.com/...
      shows about 30k more votes, which is in line with provisionals dropping from 41k to 8800.

      So it is likely there are "only" 1 million or so ballots to count rather than the 1.5million the state says.  It is likely though that the 12 counties listed are the only ones to be completely done.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 12:34:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Reposting this question from yesterday (0+ / 0-)

    Can someone tell me where I can find aggregated outside spending (or just the total including campaign + 3rd party) for federal races?  In particular I'm trying to find the numbers for MO-Sen for McCaskill and the three stooges.  FEC.gov and opensecrets.org both don't include 3rd party spending and I'm unsure where else to look.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 01:17:19 PM PST

  •  Votes miscast in one-vote legislative election (8+ / 0-)

    http://www.startribune.com/...

    An election decided by a single vote may have had 35 of its votes cast in error.

    The closest election in Minnesota this year was the House District 8B contest between incumbent Rep. Mary Franson, R-Alexandria, and Democratic challenger Bob Cunniff. Franson won by a single vote.

    But election officials in Douglas County discovered that poll workers mistakenly handed dozens of 8B ballots to residents of a neighboring House district.  The errors occured in at least three polling places that had shared precincts.

    Franson has asked for a hearing this afternoon to reveiw the election error. Election law calls for 35 ballots to be discarded.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 01:34:07 PM PST

  •  Does anyone have a link to the original (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV

    New York Baconmander?

  •  Walker would do this (9+ / 0-)

    http://host.madison.com/...

    He probably saw the student turnout in Madison and minority turnout in Milwaukee and said "Well we can't have this happen when I am on the ballot." Seriously the WI GOP is in a fit over Obama and Baldwin winning so comfortably.  They felt after the recall and after Ryan was picked for VP that Romney would keep it close and certainly that Madison lesbian liberal would lose to Tommy, I mean he is Tommy!  

    Social Democrat, WI-05

    by glame on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 04:05:48 PM PST

  •  Stuff like this scares me (5+ / 0-)

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    especially since Walker now has a Schultz-proof majority again. Eliminating same-day registration would devastate the ability of college students to vote.

  •  Random other elections by CD (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jj32, bumiputera

    Fischer vs Kerry:

    NE-01: Fischer 55%, Kerrey 45%
    NE-02: Fischer 50%, Kerrey 50%
    NE-03: Fischer 69%, Kerrey 31%

  •  Arkansas (0+ / 0-)

    Romney vs Obama

    AR-01: Romney 61%, Obama 36%
    AR-02: Romney 55%, Obama 43%
    AR-03: Romney 65%, Obama 32%
    AR-04: Romney 62%, Obama 36%

    •  Damn dummymander. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, James Allen, jncca

      AR Dem legislators, you should have put Little Rock in with the Delta.

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

      by WisJohn on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 04:27:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nah, they should have done this (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        Photobucket

        Photobucket

        Obama almost won the the 4th district and in fact did so in 2008.  Kerry won both the 1st and 4th, and Blanche Lincoln nearly won both of them as well.

        GradyDem what's your take? Would we win the 1st and 4th under this map and would Griffin have run in the 2nd as I've intended?

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 04:34:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  FWIW under the actual map (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          AR-01 was like D+3 or D+4, AR-02 was D+3, and AR-04 was D+2 or D+3 compared to the state, using that same average.

          The best I could do putting Little Rock with the Delta was D+12 on average and has a CPVI of D+3 and keep the 4th at D+1 if it grabs Fayetteville or the 1st D+2 or 3 if it takes Fayetteville instead.  IMO, not enough reason to cede 3 seats.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

          by sawolf on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 04:37:47 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Your 4th is Safe D (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf, jncca, bumiputera

            I need to check the 1st CD but I was quite alarmed with how poorly we did in Northeast Arkansas this year (We fell 15 points from where Blanche Lincoln was in some places; in the rest of the state we generally did better than Lincoln numbers). But I think your 1st would be good going for a Democrat.

            And your 2nd is wonderful.

        •  Hope (0+ / 0-)

          One nice thing about that map would be giving Bill Clinton's hometown a Dem congressperson again.

          You're an odd fellow, but you do make a good steamed ham.

          by Samara Morgan Dem on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 04:51:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  heh (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      People were saying Rule did better than expected given that he had no money, but he was the only one of the 3 Dems to run behind Obama. AR2 might be in play if Griffin leaves, although the suburbs aren't ancestrally Dem the way almost all of AR1 and AR4 are.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 04:34:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  People were saying he did good??? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        When you're coming off a candidate who could barely win Pulaski County at all (Joyce Elliott), I guess Rule's low standard was good.

        In all honesty, he was awful. Democrats ran in the upwards of 20-30 points downballot and he was underperforming Obama in most areas.

    •  A very effective Republican Gerrymander (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem
      •  Not quite. Unpacking the 3rd (0+ / 0-)

        would have been a true Republican gerrymander.  This was just a leap of faith that was totally unnecessary.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 07:21:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Hawaii results (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

    HI-01: Obama 69.70% / Romney 29.02% / Johnson 0.74% / Stein 0.54%
    HI-02: Obama 71.39% / Romney 26.66% / Johnson 1.03% / Stein 0.92%

  •  Idaho results (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    ID-01: Romney 64.67% / Obama 32.43% / Johnson 1.48%
    ID-02: Romney 64.35% / Obama 32.86% / Johnson 1.42%

    •  Half of politics is showing up (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Can I just say that I found it amusing that lesbian leftist St. Sen. Nicole LeFavor, our candidate in ID-02, outperformed Obama by a full percentage point. I also wonder if ID-02, rather than ID-01, having an actual, functioning congressional campaign apparatus operating was a factor in making that Obama's better district (usually ID-02 is the more Republican of the two.)

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 06:32:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nebraska results (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    NE-01: Romney 57.45% / Obama 40.81% / Johnson 1.44%
    NE-02: Romney 53.40% / Obama 45.18% / Johnson 1.25%
    NE-03: Romney 70.36% / Obama 27.70% / Johnson 1.49%

  •  Iowa results (last one!) (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    IA-01: Obama 55.78%, Romney 42.57%
    IA-02: Obama 55.37%, Romney 42.66%
    IA-03: Obama 51.17%, Romney 46.98%
    IA-04: Romney 52.88%, Obama 45.36%

  •  Obama now leads in Riverside County (10+ / 0-)

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 06:53:59 PM PST

  •  MI: Same-Sex Marriage Support (7+ / 0-)

    Something to watch...

    Support from same-sex marriage is now firmly ahead of its opponents in the state of Michigan, reflecting what has gone on in the nation as a whole:

    LANSING, MI -- Only eight years removed from approving an amendment to the state constitution defining marriage as between one man and one woman, a majority of Michigan residents now support gay marriage, according to the results of a recent survey by Michigan State University.

    The State of the State Survey, which included telephone interviews with 1,015 Michigan adults between June and August of this year, found 56 percent of respondents saying they support gay marriage, while only 39 percent said they were opposed.

    Two years ago, the statewide survey revealed that a small majority of respondents -- 51 percent to 48 percent -- were opposed to gay marriage, which would allow same-sex couples to enjoy the benefits of traditional unions, including hospital visitation rights, joint tax returns and joint adoptions.

    ...

    The topline numbers look about right, but I doubt some of the other numbers like only 30% of black Michiganders supporting it considering the state's largest black population, Detroit, has a human rights ordinance and elected an openly gay council president (top vote getter in council elections), and I don't believe that support for the amendmant in 2004 banning same sex marriage got anywhere near 70% support, though, I could be wrong (for whatever reason, the back election results page on Detroit's website is down).
  •  talk of Minnesota losing a district (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    prompted a sixth or tenth try at this:

    Photobucket

    1st: 51.4% Obama
    2nd: 54.0% Obama
    3rd: 44.8% Obama
    4th: 61.1% Obama
    5th: 68.8% Obama
    6th: 43.4% Obama
    7th: 55.2% Obama

    Assuming Peterson retires, all incumbents except Bachmann would live in their districts, though some will probably move on by 2022.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 08:15:01 PM PST

    •  there are a couple counties (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      in the Northwest corner of the gray district that are very decent for Democrats.  You should find a way to add them into a blue district.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 09:22:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  My AZ Dem maps are up: (0+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 08:28:32 PM PST

    •  I made two different maps. (0+ / 0-)

      The first one has 5 D-leaning districts plus a 6th district that Democrats could win.
      The second one has 5 more solidly D-leaning districts.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 08:40:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  So I'm writing a paper on MO-Sen for class (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

    and came across this little tidbit from the april 25th digest that made me chuckle:

    McCaskill's demonstrated significant fundraising advantages so far.  According to the FEC, she has $6,083,099 on hand, while Akin (the closest Republican) has $1,400,639 and Steelman has $599,073.  Brunner, meanwhile, raised $2,639,748, almost entirely from his own pocket ($2,242,614)--and spent most of it already, leaving him with only $225,173 on hand.  According to the Hill's story on the endorsement, "Polls show him running in third place."  Still, it’s unlikely that Brunner, or whoever the Republican candidate ends up being, will lack for the direct or indirect financial support necessary to be viable: According to the A.P. story, "The chamber already has been running TV ads against McCaskill and has vowed to remain involved through the November election."
    (emphasis mine)

    I'd bet Ann Wagner is hating that she didn't run for senate.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 08:39:03 PM PST

    •  Who would she have drawn from, though? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      While she has a similar geographic base do Akin, her profile is probably closer to Brunner.

      •  National establishment Republicans (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        the same people who supported her as RNC co-chair and funded her house bid.  Remember, Steelman had absolutely attrocious fundraising and Akin's wasn't much better which is why Brunner thought he could win the primary in the first place.  Wagner, or really any other of their credible Republican like Jim Talent or Tom Schweich should have been able to beat McCaskill if they had cleared the driftwood from the primary field.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:38:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Just returned from HI-02 (Kauai) (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Lots of Tulsi signs with 'mahalo' posted on them.

    Seems like a local custom for winning candidates to say "thank you" to their voters with the help of their signs. Saw a few on Mazie's signs, as well as some candidates for local offices.

    I might have said more while there, but my laptop had trouble the first day there.... and I had little motivation to fix it. (It's under warranty, and the laptop guy got here this afternoon, and there's a longer story that I'll share over turkey weekend. Suffice to say that dot com 2.0 is here.)

    We got a sense that the GMO issue is big here -- GMO-enhanced corn, etc. is a candidate to replace the old sugar fields. One of our guides was a big proponent, and everyone at the farmers markets (touristy and local) openly hated the idea.

    It is odd that Hawaii imports nearly 90% of its foods, despite having huge ranches, easy access to seafood, lots of pigs, plenty of fruit, etc. The end of the sugar fields seems like an opportunity to grow more local. And the lines for the local (non-tourist) farmers markets are just a little less competitive than the lines for wedding dresses at Filene's basement.

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 09:21:32 PM PST

    •  Filene's is out of business nationwide (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack

      isn't it?

      There is indeed a lot of farming in Hawaii, but many foodstuffs aren't grown or grown sufficiently there to meet local demand.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:40:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Shows how much I keep up on retail (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        What the heck is H&M, and what on earth are they doing on the runway?

        As for farming, there is a lot of land formerly used for sugar, with an infrastructure that includes canals from wetter areas.

        The population of Hawaii in the 1700s was around 1m, which suggests that the islands by themselves can support local foods. Of course, it was based on a healthier diet.

        I hope; therefore, I can live.

        by tietack on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 05:31:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Obama's lead is over 4 million (10+ / 0-)

    The county that did it?

    YOLO! Hahahaha!

    Dave Wasserman @Redistrict     46m
    New votes from Yolo, CA (Davis) push @BarackObama's lead past 4 million vote mark (63,976,035 to 59,974,696)
    https://docs.google.com/...
  •  GA-Sen: Chambliss may face a primary challenge (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    from Rep. Tom Price or other members of the Republican Congressional delegation.

    Price, an exceedingly ambitious member and a former chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee, lost an election for GOP conference chairman last week. That’s increased the sense among Peach State insiders that Price might make a move against the senior senator. He had a hefty $1.5 million in his campaign account in mid-October, enough to mount a viable statewide bid. Price and his aides declined to comment for this story.

    ...

    “Tom Price is smart, strategic and very calculating,” Lake said in an email. “I think he will take his time to evaluate his next step and where he thinks he can be most effective.”

    An aide to Rep. Paul Broun said he was focused on his current job but left the door wide open to a bid. “Dr. Broun is not running for Senate at this time,” spokeswoman Meredith Griffanti said in a statement.
    Reached by phone Monday,

    Georgia Rep. Tom Graves declined to comment for this story.

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 10:48:31 PM PST

  •  New York Senate: Tkaczyk back ahead? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, lordpet8

    It looks like, based on the votes counted yesterday, Amedore's 54-vote lead became a... 6-vote lead for Tkacyk!! http://blog.timesunion.com/...

    Remember, this could decide control of the chamber... as long as the four 'independent' Democrats don't bolt of course.

    •  I just don't understand the IDC (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      If Dems were on the brink of a majority, I'd cut my losses and accept a lesser concession (supposedly they think Dem leader Senator Sampson is a poopy head) to help build that majority.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:44:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Charles Barron hates them a load (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and says they're just as bad as the 4 who briefly broke form Democrats until one of them (Espada) got made Majority Leader:
        http://blog.timesunion.com/...

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:50:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Charles Barron Hating them (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Is probably the first positive thing I've heard about the IDC.

        •  What a sad parade that was (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingofSpades, tk421

          With those 4 reduced to just 1 following an amazing string of criminal charges against the other three, I had hope that this kind of bullshit would no longer happen in New York.  It's one thing for a caucus to emerge opposed to leadership.  My home state in particular (Hawaii) has had brutal fights between leadership and dissident Democrats in both the state House and Senate.  With Republicans practically irrelevant in Hawaii, that constitutes the real battle for control in the legislature.

          But to threaten the state with Republican control of a chamber...that is unforgivable.  I really, really hope the IDC in the end supports the Dem choice for Senate leader.  If they throw support to the GOP (through inaction or otherwise), then primary the lot of them out.

    •  It's not over yet, still more to go. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Fingers crossed that we do it.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 11:47:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sheldon Adelson blew >600K in New Jersey. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, bumiputera, askew

    Everyone's favorite money dumper with an astronomically low ROI threw 500K on a super PAC supporting Schmuckley Boteach against Bill Pascrell.  Guess what, Pascrell won in a landslide as everyone with half a brain expected:
    http://www.politico.com/...

    The chumps at the NRCC re-rated Boteach as "Contender" immediately after the waste of money came in:
    http://www.nj.com/...

    Also, to my chagrin, Adelson pissed $112K on the two Burlington County (where I vote) Freeholders race to air ads to help prevent Democrats from getting back on the board.  Well, both GOP incumbents up for re-election lost and Democrats Belgard and Schwarz are in:
    http://blog.nj.com/...

    Maybe Adelson is having a midlife crisis and suddenly money doesn't mean anything.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 12:16:39 AM PST

  •  Here's an interesting read (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, MichaelNY

    The RNC's post-mortem:
    http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 12:53:43 AM PST

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