Today we are looking at the states with less Democratic support. In this states is difficult to think about the Democratic Party as the leading party, then the approach will be a little different.
In the previous diary for the 23 most Democratic states I find the three best performing Democrats that can be active in the following elections. These were the conditions that I follow for that:
- To take Democratic or Democratic leaning Independent politicians.
- To include not the politicians with higher level in the order of precedence than a Secretary of the Cabinet (level 18).
- To take politicians that run a race for the Senate and Governor.
- To take politicians that run not but poll recently stronger than the politicians that run.
- To take politicians that born in 1941 or later, and the older incumbents in the senate or as governors.
- To take only the last result of every politician in these races. If someone runs later unsuccesfully for lower level office, gets out.
Like I tell, the approach today is a little different. This time I do the same research but for the Republicans as the leading party (without apply the rule of the polling because I would forget someone).
But at same time I find every Democrat that would overperform some or all the Republicans in every state, and the list is so long for my surprise. In the previous diary I do the same finding the Republicans that perform better than the Democrats but I publish not it because I want not to make easier to the Republicans to find their better options.
This is the Result of the second part of my research.
The numbers are the same. First I compare the result of every candidate with the presidential, or the US House overall numbers in the same cycle, and later I deduct the effect of the PVI. This time to deduct the effect of the PVI favores to the Democrats that win. It is more difficult to win in a red state.
DEMOCRATS OVER THE BEST REPUBLICAN
+48.2% OK D BorenThe no-incumbents are bolded. I think they will be interesting options looking at the recruiting process. We can add some candadidate more to the habitual Democratic bech in states like MO and NC. All them overperform, in their last high level race, the best Republican in their home state.
+35.6% AR M Pryor
+28.7% AR M Beebe
+26.9% LA J Breaux
+18.8% WV J Rockefeller
+17.6% WV J Manchin
+16.6% AZ J Napolitano
+14.3% VA M Warner
+11.3% NC M Easley
+08.8% NC R Edmisten
+07.5% WV E Tomblin
+06.8% MO C McCaskill
+06.8% MO J Nixon
+06.2% FL W Nelson
+04.9% MO G Rothman-Sherot
DEMOCRATS OVER THE SECOND BEST REPUBLICAN
+27.0% MT M BaucusThis time the incumbents (in the following cycle) are bolded. This is not as strong position but still gives the chance of some bid for new offices.
+19.7% IN E Bayh
+19.6% MT B Schweitzer
+17.9% AK C Gruening
+14.7% KY S Beshear
+12.7% MT D Bradley
+05.7% MT M O'Keefe
+04.9% MT S Bullock
+04.9% FL A Sink
+04.6% MT J Tester
+03.9% VA T Kaine
+03.2% OH T Strickland
+02.0% FL B Castor
+00.7% OH S Brown
-00.4% VA J Webb
DEMOCRATS OVER THE THIRD BEST REPUBLICAN
+37.9% WY D FreudenthalThis group is obviously weaker and has low number of current incumbents, but still here is enough potential for giving some headache to the Republicans, especially if the do bad recruitments.
+31.5% OK B Henry
+29.7% ND B Dorgan
+26.6% ND K Conrad
+25.6% TN P Bredesen
+18.6% SD T Johnson
+13.6% LA K Blanco
+11.0% AR JL Fisher
+10.1% SC J Hodges
+10.1% SC V Sheheen
+09.4% KY J Conway
+09.2% LA M Landrieu
+08.7% AK F Ulmer
+07.6% AK M Begich
+05.9% AK E Berkowitz
+03.6% NC K Hagan
+02.8% NC E Bowles
+02.1% NC E Marshall
+02.0% AK T Knowles
+01.4% NC B Perdue
+00.7% NC H Gannt
+00.7% NC R Cooper
-03.4% NC W Dalton
DEMOCRATS UNDER THE THIRD BEST REPUBLICAN
+17.8% KS K SebeliusThe last group has very few incumbents and they will have not troubles until 2018. The symmetric list for the Republicans in the bluest states is big, and C Christie is the third worst underperformer between the Republican incumbents only after P LePage and M Kirk.
+09.2% ND H Heitkamp
+04.5% IN J Donnelly
In overall terms, the number of Democratic politicians in all these groups is higher than I expect, and a lot higher that the symmetric list for the Republicans in the most Democratic states. In the bluest states only 3 Republicans would be over the best Democratic result, only 3 Republicans more would be over the second best Democratic result and only 4 more would be over the third best Democratic result.
Obviously the trend in many of these states (not in all) is negative, and some results come from some years ago, but the Republicans will have a lot of work in the redest states. The Democratic party would be still competitive in many races of these states with the right recruitment. Here are all the options of recruitment that opens this research:
From the group over the first Republican:
2016 MO-Gov: G Rothman-Serot? vs ?????????? (Open by Democrat)
2016 OK-Sen: D Boren (former senator) vs ?????????? (Open by Republican)
2015 LA-Gov: J Breaux vs ?????????? (Open by Republican)
2014 AZ-Gov: J Napolitano vs ?????????? (Open by Republican)
2018 AZ-Sen: J Napolitano vs J Flake (Flake is out the 3 best Republicans in AZ)
2014 OK-Gov: D Boren (former senator) vs M Fallin (Fallin is out the 3 best Republicans in OK)
2014 OK-Sen: D Boren (former senator) vs J Inhofe (Inhofe is the 3rd best Republican in OK)
2016 MO-Sen: J Nixon vs R Blunt (Blunt is the 3rd best Republican in MO)
2016 LA-Sen: J Breaux vs D Vitter (Vitter is the 2nd best Republican in LA)
2016 AZ-Sen: J Napolitano vs J McCain (McCain is the 2nd best Republican in AZ)
2016 NC-Sen: M Easley vs R Burr (Burr is the 2nd best Republican in NC)
2016 AR-Sen: M Beebe vs J Boozman (Boozman is the best Republican in AR)
2016 NC-Gov: R Edmisten? vs P McCrory (McCrory is the best Republican in NC)
From the group over the second Republican:
2013 VA-Gov: J Webb vs ?????????? (Open by Republican)
2016 IN-Gov: E Bayh vs M Pence (Pence is out the 3 best Republicans in IN)
2014 FL-Gov: A Sink vs R Scott (Scott is out the 3 best Republicans in FL)
2016 AK-Sen: C Gruening? vs L Murkowski (Murkowski is the 3rd best Republican in AK)
2016 IN-Sen: E Bayh vs D Coats (Coats is the 3rd best Republican in IN)
2014 OH-Gov: T Strickland vs J Kasich (Kasich is the 3rd best Republican in OH)
2016 FL-Sen: B Castor? vs M Rubio (Rubio is the 3rd best Republican in FL)
2016 KY-Sen: S Beshear vs R Paul (Paul is the 2nd best Republican in KY)
From the group over the third Democrat we have weaker options that can be interesting in the case of Open offices like 2015 LA-Gov, 2015 KY-Gov or 2016 SC-Sen.
I bold the options included in the poll. I let out the less known options and the strongest senate incumbent in AZ and OK. I have not place for all in the poll. But still I would recommend to think about these less known options.
Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 11:07 AM PT: Updated after the death of W McBride (FL)