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Comment Preferences

  •  3 Iowa legislative races (12+ / 0-)

    Recounts are coming in Iowa Senate district 28, in the northeast corner of the state, and in Iowa House district 43, including some Des Moines suburbs. Republicans are confident their small leads will hold in both districts. If that happens, the Iowa House will be 53R-47D and the Iowa Senate will be 26D-23R.

    The last Iowa Senate seat, district 22 in the Des Moines suburbs, will be filled in a December 11 special election, because Republican incumbent Pat Ward died last month. Republicans have a pretty big voter registration advantage here, so will be favored to win the special. That would bring the Senate to 26D-24R, the same as it's been for the last two years.

    Senate Republicans just elected a new leader this week after botching what seemed like a pretty good shot at taking the majority. Looking ahead to the 2014 Iowa Senate races, neither side has a lot of pickup opportunities.

    Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

    by desmoinesdem on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 10:11:50 AM PST

  •  Republican Main Street Partnership (10+ / 0-)

    the RMSP is the GOP equivalent of the Blue Dog caucus.  Like the Blue Dogs, they represent moderate members of the party, as well as members that aren't really moderate at all but just seem to like the fundraising connections.  In any case, there were 53 House Republicans in this caucus before this election.

    Steve Austria (OH-7) Retired
    Roscoe Bartlett (MD-6) Defeated
    Charles Bass (NH-2) Defeated
    Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA-3)
    Judy Biggert (IL-13) Defeated
    Brian Bilbray (CA-50) Defeated
    Mary Bono Mack (CA-45) Defeated
    Ken Calvert (CA-44)
    Dave Camp (MI-4)
    Shelley Moore Capito (WV-2)
    Charlie Dent (PA-15)
    Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-21)
    Robert Dold (IL-10) Defeated
    David Dreier (CA-26) Retired
    Jo Ann Emerson (MO-8)
    Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-8)
    Jeff Fortenberry (NE-1)
    Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11)
    Jim Gerlach (PA-6)
    Chris Gibson (NY-20)
    Michael Grimm (NY-13)
    Richard Hanna (NY-24)
    Nan Hayworth (NY-19) Defeated
    Lynn Jenkins (KS-2)
    Bill Johnson (OH-6)
    Adam Kinzinger (IL-11)
    Leonard Lance (NJ-7)
    Steve LaTourette (OH-14) Retired
    Jerry Lewis (CA-41) Retired
    Frank LoBiondo (NJ-2)
    Thad McCotter (MI-11) Retired
    David McKinley (WV-1)
    Pat Meehan (PA-7)
    Tim Murphy (PA-18)
    Erik Paulsen (MN-3)
    Tom Petri (WI-6)
    Todd Platts (PA-19) Retired
    Tom Reed (NY-29)
    Dave Reichert (WA-8)
    Jim Renacci (OH-16)
    Jon Runyan (NJ-3)
    Bobby Schilling (IL-17) Defeated
    Aaron Schock (IL-18)
    Mike Simpson (ID-2)
    Steve Stivers (OH-15)
    Lee Terry (NE-2)
    Pat Tiberi (OH-12)
    Bob Turner (NY-9) Retired
    Mike Turner (OH-3)
    Fred Upton (MI-6)
    Greg Walden (OR-2)
    Ed Whitfield (KY-1)
    Frank Wolf (VA-10)

     The incoming Congress will have only 37 RMSP members unless any of their freshmen join the caucus.  Maybe Chris Collins will, don't see any other likely candidates.  But the important thing to take from this is that fully 16 out of 53 members of the RMSP aren't coming back this year, a much higher attrition rate than the general Republican caucus.  And a bunch of the ones coming back are across-the-board conservatives, the actual list of moderates in the GOP caucus is quite small.  Richard Hanna is the only legitimate moderate, with another handful that are left of the Republican consensus.

    The RMSP's Senate caucus also decreases from 4 to 3 with the loss of Olympia Snowe, and I don't see Cruz or Fischer joining them (Flake is not a RMSP member in the House, so it's unlikely he would join in the Senate).

    •  does this caucus actually have any power? (5+ / 0-)

      Has there been any instances in which they have watered-down or defeated legislation that they didn't find sufficiently moderate? I remember the blue dogs doing that; however, this is the first time I've heard about this "Main Street Partnership." will the fact that there are fewer in their ranks actually make a difference to anything?

      •  No, and in fact... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...they probably bury their membership given how crazy their primary voters are.

        I had no idea Frank Wolf is a member.  He's actually quite conservative.  His rant this cycle against Grover Norqust was a rare apostasy, but his conservative cred goes unchallenged among the GOP base here.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 08:46:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  others (4+ / 0-)

      Paul Cook (CA8) is likely to be a moderate, he was one of the few Reeps in the CA legislature who was willing to consider tax increases. David Valadao (CA21) was not one of those, but may have to break with his party on at least some economic issues if he wants to hold that district for long. David Joyce (OH14) isn't rigidly anti-tax according to his National Journal blurb.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 01:12:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ugh (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It makes sense since they tent to represent the easiest districts for Democrats to win, but since the Republicans do have the majority I wish they hade more of these guys then Tea Party buffoons. This group would at least vote for any deal Obama makes with Boehner. I really think Boehner is going to make a deal on immigration/taxes/etc and then the Tea Party is going to kill it because they're crazy and won't negotiate at all. In return, Boehner won't want to look like he's been flanked by his own party and then kill the deal and blame it on Obama. Ugh.

       

      (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

      by kman23 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 03:00:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  All he has to do (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        is get 40 or so Republicans and most of the Democrats.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 08:11:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The problem is... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          ...that leaves 190 or so Republicans who may just want to replace him as leader.  Imagine back in 2009 if Nancy Pelosi started pushing budgetary proposals that only managed to get 40 Democratic votes but most of the Republican conference.  Steny Hoyer would've had her scalp in a hearbeat.  And Eric Cantor will have Boehner's if he tries that.

          That's not to say the Republican leadership may not give most of their conference a pass to punk the Democratic caucus like they did with the bailout to pass stuff they know needs to be passed but still have the ability to attack Democrats over the unpopularity of it.

          But if Boehner goes rogue on his own party he'll not only lose the speakership.  He may even find himself teabagged in his next primary.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 08:53:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  So basically these are your suburban (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

      Moderate conservatives from the north, plus the West Virginians.

      I think this lot probably is fairly moderate... It is just that they cowardly vote red rump conservative except for a few of them on social issues.

      Renacci and Beutler are the only two I would say don't really belong... And maybe the odious Calvert.

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

      by CF of Aus on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 05:29:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Can this group exist (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CF of Aus, MichaelNY

        if Democrats are in control of the House, or are they basically the first line of targets?

        With redistricting being what it is for us, I'd think not. What other districts might we win to get a decent and not bare majority?

        In this respect, it seems like we are going to be dealing with pure obstructionists for some time.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 08:17:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes they can still exist in that scenario... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          As it is an brand that has appeal in the suburbs.

          But yeah to take back the house we would probably be winning a fair few of these.

          But most on the list are not especially vulnerable.

          To get 60 seats in the senate would probably need the last few senators in the group to fall though... A pity we will be n defense next cycle instead.

          Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

          by CF of Aus on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 08:32:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Funny (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, CF of Aus, Taget

      Funny to see Upton and Camp still on the list.  I mean, of course they aren't going to leave the caucus, but the tea party pushed each so far to the right that it's silly to call them moderates, anymore.  What each of them has always been is a corporatist, Upton (R-Whirlpool) and Camp (R-Dow Chemical).  They can each be counted on to represent their corporate overlord in the House.

    •  Grimm is no moderate. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, sapelcovits

      Of course Grimm has no shame.  So why not be a tea party and main street Republican at the same time.

      Of course Grimm does occasionally show his "independence" when he votes with the leadership rather than the crazies.  See.  He is a moderate.  He voted for the Ryan plan!

      Ugh.

      I still remember him at a town hall meeting calling for the elimination of the EPA saying that the reason why China is beating us is that companies there don't have to contend with so many environmental regulations.  Even the Chinese know this is not a good thing.

      http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/...

      Actually it is amazing. how many conservatives want us to be more like communist China whether it is labor laws or the environment.  And if you disagree? Clearly you're a communist.  George Orwell would be proud.  But I digress.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 08:41:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  No Texas exit poll? Fine, I'll make my own! (13+ / 0-)

    In 2008, whites were 63% of the electorate and went 73-26 for McCain. Blacks were 13% and went 98-2 for Obama. Hispanics were 20% and went 63-35 for Obama.

    But Obama clearly did better with hispanics this year - almost every overwhelmingly hispanic county swung towards him, even though he did worse overall in the state.

    And Lisa Falkenberg said this:

    In Texas, the best data so far show a 70-30 split for Obama among Hispanic voters, according to Rice University political science chairman Mark Jones. Romney performed several points worse than Sen. John McCain did in 2008. At the same time, Jones points out, Hispanics became a larger share of the vote in Texas, going from 20 percent in 2008 to 25 percent in 2012.
    That's a big bump. So if this is right, what percentage of whites did Obama win? Well, Romney won the two-party vote 58-42. So if the electorate was 25% hispanic (70-30 Obama), 13% black (95-5 Obama), 3% other (60-40 Obama), then whites would be 59% and they would have voted...

    82-18 for Romney.

    Yikes. That's pretty ugly.

    But Falkenberg's claim that the electorate was 25% hispanic seems a bit high to me, especially given that turnout was generally down in the state. Based on a diary I wrote, I would have expected hispanics to be about 21-22% of the electorate this year. If they were 22% and going 70-30 for Obama, then Obama would have won more like 20% of the white vote. That's still lower than any other recent Dem presidential or senate candidate has done, but still seems believable to me.

    Also in that diary I predicted future composition of the Texas electorate - 56/25/14/5 W/H/B/O for 2020 and like 50/30/14/6 for 2024. But I assumed a higher Dem share of the white vote and a lower share of the hispanic vote. If 70-30 for hispanics and 20-80 for whites becomes the "new normal" in Texas, then the republican would win 56-44 in 2020 and 53-47 in 2024.

    In 2028 the state would be a toss-up.

    •  There is absolutely no way (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Inoljt, andgarden, SLDemocrat

      that Hispanic vote share went up 5 points.

      It seems impossible that Hispanic vote share should have not went up at all - but if it were not for the population growth numbers, I would in fact be inclined to think there was no change at all. The only reason I am really persuaded that there was even a 1% increase is the underlying population numbers that we know are there. Surely they have to have had some sort of impact?

      I think your estimated numbers are more accurate. I also think it was 20-80 with Whites, and it will probably stay more or less like that (although some of the urban/suburban whites will swing back and forth, depending on which party is strong which year).

      •  I'm inclined to agree with you. (0+ / 0-)

        It wouldn't surprise me to see Obama drop off a little with whites, if only because he dropped off pretty much everywhere with them. But since he never really climbed all that much, if at all, I think the drop would be smaller.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 02:33:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I virtually guarantee Hispanics were up... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bjssp, wu ming

        ...as a percentage of the total.

        A lot of people seem very unaware how powerful demographic shift is.  The mere fact of lots of old white people dying while young brown people join the electorate changes ethnic vote share with nothing else driving it.  Things like candidates and campaigns and political environment affect the racial composition only on the smallest margins.

        The only things that significantly affect racial composition are, first, demographic reality, and second, the nature of the election (Presidential vs. midterm vs. special, general vs. primary, etc.).

        That said, I agree going from 20% to 25% in Texas seems too high.  I think 1% sounds more right.  The only state where Hispanic growth is that rapid is Nevada where the nonwhite adult voting-eligible population increased from 32% nonwhite to 40% nonwhite over the past 4 years, and the electorate accordingly became several points more nonwhite including 4 points more Hispanic.

        I can picture Obama's white vote dropping to 20% in Texas.  And I can picture that being likely a floor, Texas just doesn't seem like Alabama or Mississippi in a uniformly hostile white vote.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 09:16:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree with your last paragraph. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Maybe, for whatever reason, the population centers in Texas are more hostile to out-of-state Democrats than I realize, but I'd guess not. The thing is, nobody seems to be asking for their votes at the presidential level--not in the same way they are in, say, Cleveland or Charlotte. When they do, they will turn out more, which could up our share of the white vote.

          The story is similar, but still different, with Hispanics, since they are friendlier to us but appear to have much worse turnout.

          But in both cases, mobilizing them is key. It gets lost in a lot of these discussions, but people like Ruy Tuxiera have made it clear it's more of an opportunity than a guarantee, that we need to actively turn out these voters. That's true for Texas, for Virginia, or for any other state that doesn't start out as Democratic.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 09:43:30 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I'm honestly not sure what to think about Texas (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, Taget, hankmeister

      this year. As far as I can tell, there's no big pool of votes waiting to be counted. (Please tell me if I am wrong here.) If that's the case, then turnout was actually down by 125,000 or so votes.

      There's no exit polling for the state that I am aware of, but it seems unlikely that Hispanic turnout was 25 percent. CNN had it at 20 percent in 2008, and assuming it was around there (a big assumption, of course), that's a huge increase when there was no central, organized effort in the state.

      Or maybe it is right; what do I know? But if it is, and there was no great fall off in black voters, you'd either have to have record low white turnout or almost nobody of any other race voting. Adding 25 and 13 gets us 38, leaving only 62 percent of the vote remaining. As I said to MattTX, Obama never did all that well with whites in the state to begin with, so it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't fall as far. The white vote seems to have stayed in the same small range between 2004 and 2008, and I don't see why the same guy who was on the ballot in 2012 would do that much worse than Kerry, running against an actual Texan, in 2004.

      My guess is that the electorate was something like 62/13/21/4. If Obama were to see at least 68 percent of Hispanics and at least 95 percent of blacks vote for him, along with 65 percent of all others, this would give him 29.23 percent of the vote--before factoring in whites. If whites were in fact 62 percent of the electorate and all other assumptions held, Obama would get about 20 percent of the white vote if his total in real life was 41.36 percent.

      Then again, I could be wrong...

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 04:17:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  So what would the white spread be... (0+ / 0-)

      ...if we looked only at white protestants (since catholics are more likely to be swing voters)?  Or if we went to white protestant males?

      How close to 100% Romney would we be when we reached "white protestant males not attending college"?

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 09:00:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sounds like Rep. West is getting his recount... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fearlessfred14, James Allen, Taget

    After all. I don't have a problem at all with counting all the votes, but I think it's pretty obvious that the Scott administration is trying to put a finger on the scales here. Under law, West doesn't get a recount; judges have said as much.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 11:57:57 AM PST

    •  It's not a recount, it's a retabulation (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, MichaelNY, Taget

      just of early votes.  A recount is a complete count of all votes in all parts of the district.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 12:02:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  full recount or nothing in my book. (10+ / 0-)

      Only counting some of the votes again is dumb.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 12:07:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, Gore did this in 2000 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Taget

        Onyl demanding Recounts in Volusia, Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade Counties.

        •  and if that had happened he still would've lost. (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          kman23, CF of Aus, wu ming, MichaelNY, Taget

          A statewide recount would have given him the win.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 12:48:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yep, very likely (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY
            •  Not likely (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              It's actually something well known. My freshman poly sci class at American University had a whole lesson on this. Gore totally screwed up (well his lawyers did) the math.

              (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

              by kman23 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 02:23:27 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Screwed up where and how? (0+ / 0-)

                Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 02:34:02 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I'm trying to remember exactly what is was (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                  But something about the challenge he made didn't even have enough votes to win. I'm trying to find exactly what he did wrong online, my class was 4 years ago and I can't remember the exact details.

                  (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

                  by kman23 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 02:39:04 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Here's a link (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    KingofSpades

                    (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

                    by kman23 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 02:40:47 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Gore's team messed up (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      KingofSpades, lordpet8, MichaelNY

                      Had they won the case they still wouldn't have had enough votes.

                      But in another twist clear only now, the study found that where Gore had the greatest opportunity to pick up votes was not in those undervote ballots but in the approximately 114,000 overvote ballots, particularly 25,000 overvote ballots read by optical scanning machines.

                      Using the most inclusive standards, Bush actually gained more votes than Gore -- about 300 net -- from the examination of the undervote ballots. But Gore picked up 885 more votes than Bush from the examination of overvote ballots, 662 of those from optical scan ballots.

                      (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

                      by kman23 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 02:46:13 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

          •  But that would cost an arm and a leg. (0+ / 0-)

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 01:49:59 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Wasn't the reason... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            redrelic17

            that Gore didn't ask for a statewide recount because Florida didn't have (and possibly still does not have) a mechanism for a statewide recount?

            •  Maybe (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, MichaelNY

              But it was also that they knew for a fact that certain counties had the chad issue and they figured they'd get enough votes in those few regions to win the state. They didn't think they'd need a statewide recount.

              (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

              by kman23 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 02:24:40 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  And the fact that he asked for a limited recount (4+ / 0-)

                was used against him. While the conservatives didn't really give a damn, I do think from a theoretical standpoint it's a good argument. Shouldn't the entire state, and not just Democratic counties, have their votes re-examined in a close election with major voting issues? Yes. I know the Republicans and conservatives on the SC didn't really care about that and they just used it as a reason to rule against Gore, but I do think it's a fair point. Gore looked like he was just cherry picking when he limited the scope of the recount to a few counties. That plus not asking for an overvote ruling where major, major mistakes and the Democrats have learned from that in recent recount battles (Minnesota Senate race, NY US House races, etc.).

                (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

                by kman23 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 02:50:40 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  Are you sure that is right? (0+ / 0-)

            I've heard the opposite is true, but it's been a while since I've read anything that deals with the subject, like Toobin's book.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 08:18:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Weekend tune! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, HoosierD42

    Hard to believe this my first weekend at home to myself in almost a whole entire month.

    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

    by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 12:28:10 PM PST

  •  GOP vs popular vote vs electoral college (11+ / 0-)

    This election was not close.  

    It wasn't close in the electoral college.  Obama won by 5% or more in enough states to win.  All the closer, true swing states (VA, OH, FL, NC) didn't matter.  

    The 5%+ margin of margin of these Dem base states might lead to the GOP, rightly, thinking they face very long odds in the electoral college going forward.

    But the popular vote is even worse.  While switching 3% of the voters in a series of blue states is a daunting challenge, it sure is an easier task than eliminating the 3,000,000 vote edge Democrats get out of California... a number that will only grow in the future in terms of raw numbers.

    Basically, Republicans are damned either way.  Turning a 5% deficit in the Dems weakest state, when non-voters favor Dems, is an enormous task.  Winning the popular vote when starting in a 3 million vote hole  is even more difficult.

    Worse for them, if they would have nominated a more conservative candidate something that clearly the majority of the party would prefer, the challenge of these numbers would only be worse.

    They have the House for a decade, but unless non-white people only count for 3/5ths a vote and women don't
    get to vote at all, the Presidency will be blue at least until  Dems champion some avoidable policy disaster.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 12:54:14 PM PST

    •  Outside spending probably not (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      going away any time soon, and that more than anything, I think, would be an impetus to change the system. After all, if they can get good at turning out voters, or better than they are now, why not focus on juicing turnout? One would would be as good as any other vote. Democrats could conceivably do the same thing, but if the Republicans have more money, they will be able to pursue a much more aggressive, thorough approach.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 08:23:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  For my music, one final tune from "The Wall:" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tommypaine

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 01:49:32 PM PST

  •  Tea Party challenges in 2013/2014 (4+ / 0-)

    I was thinking about the upcoming elections for 2013 and 2014 and was trying to figure out which states we'd see a Tea Party challenge to an incumbent or favorite Republican. I came up with this idea after hearing some rumblings that the Tea Party in Michigan hates Gov. Snyder and has been told they'd have unlimited financing from Ambassador Bridge owner Manuel Moroun (bitter about the Governor wanting a new bridge). That'd make for a pretty lethal primary for Snyder. I guess he could run as an independent but I honestly think he'd be slaughtered in the Republican primary if any decent candidate runs. Even with a horrible candidate he'd have a tough fight.

    Obviously Virginia looks like it's going to have an establishment vs Tea Party fight for Governor between Bolling and Cuccinelli.

    Does anyone else have any big Tea Party vs. Establishment fights that they see coming?

    (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

    by kman23 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 02:34:34 PM PST

    •  I wouldn't be surprised if (7+ / 0-)

      Susan Collins of ME and Lindsey Graham of SC both get primary challenges form the right

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 02:44:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wouldn't surprise me, either . . . (5+ / 0-)

        . . . but in South Carolina, it won't be of any help to us. They already have DeMint in office; they'll easily elect one of his minions.

        Maine, on the other hand . . . bring on the ratf*cking GOP primary, and let's land ourselves a Senator Pingree (either one) or a Senator Cain.

        And, yes, I know it'd be a real kick to eventually have a senate caucus that included Cain, Kane, and Kaine! (Of Maine, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, respectively).

        29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "We need less of that War on Women, and more of that Warren woman!"-- writer Paul Myers.

        by The Caped Composer on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 02:53:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  agree except (0+ / 0-)

        the party infrastructures are pretty bad in maine, for both parties.  Look at the 2010 gubernatorial election and 2012 senate.,a cadre of political dwarfs on both sides.  the senate race was understandable due to king, especially for the dems, but the cluster of a gub election?  no way.  The dems should have been able to field one decent candidate for that, same as the republicans.  The republicans have a decent chance at taking down collins, the dems lepage and both will probably manage to screw it up.

        Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

        by DougTuttle on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 04:10:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think that's why Graham is picking a fight (4+ / 0-)

        over Benghazi. Obama and Graham both benefit from this fight (Graham might hold off a Tea Party challenger and Obama gets Graham and not a Tea Party nut as a Senator)

        (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

        by kman23 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 05:00:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Alaska is where it could easily happen. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ehstronghold, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      Everyone's favorite sadist Joe Miller.

      Also, Bolling's got next to no chance in the primary.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 03:00:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Don't (0+ / 0-)

        count out Bolling yet. It's not even 2013 yet and Cuccinelli could self destruct before the primary.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 03:44:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Bolling is a complete nonentity (5+ / 0-)

          I can't think of anything Cuccinelli could possibly do to cause himself to lose the primary.

        •  Yes count out Bolling (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          Bolling is chasing windmills, if he were smart he'd just run for reelection again (no term limits except for Governor).

          There's no contest at all, Cuccinelli is it.

          What Johnny says in his reply here about Bolling being a "nonentity" is right, I'm on the local Democratic committee here and I can tell you Bolling may as well not exist, we talk about VA-Gov 2013 exclusively as a campaign against Cuccinelli.  You wouldn't know Bolling was even running from overhearing all of us talking.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 09:23:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  is there any word which primary will be used? (0+ / 0-)

          I remember senator John Warner was taking heat for his centrist positions and thus took advantage of rule where the incumbent gets to chose the type of primary

          Because of his centrist stances on many issues and because of his 1993 and 1994 snubbing of fellow Republicans, Warner faced opposition from angry members of his own party when he decided to run for re-election to a fourth term in the Senate in 1996. Many of Virginia's staunch Republican voters began a "Dump Warner" campaign to try to deny him re-nomination. However, Virginia's GOP party rules allow the incumbent to select the nominating process. Knowing he would probably lose the nomination at a convention or caucus, where only party regulars would be voting, he selected a primary. In Virginia, primaries are open to all registered voters, so Warner encouraged Democrats and independents to vote in that primary. His strategy worked and he handily defeated Republican rival James C. Miller III for the nomination

          "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

          by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 09:59:59 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Also there was the story of (0+ / 0-)

            Tom M Davis who wanted to run for the senate but chose not to after he found the primary would be decided by a convention instead of primary.

            Davis announced in October 2007 that he would not be running after all, in part due to the state Republican Party's decision to choose its nominee at a nominating convention rather than in a primary. Davis argued that a primary would expose the candidates to the kind of environment they would face in November. It was also thought that a primary would have favored Davis due to his popularity in voter-rich Northern Virginia. In contrast, the delegates at the nominating convention will be made up mostly of party activists; the state's Republican activist base is tilted heavily to the right. Gilmore had argued strongly for a convention, claiming that a primary would leave the winner short of cash
            http://en.wikipedia.org/...
            My best guess is if the Republican party of VA gets to chose they will most likely opt for the convention method, which will probably hurt Bolling.

            "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

            by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 10:01:41 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  They're having a regular primary (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, MichaelNY

            there's no incumbent, so the party selected the nominating method.

          •  I took advantage of that, and VA's open primaries (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, MichaelNY, lordpet8, BeloitDem

            in 1996.  I've always respected John Warner, and I wanted to help preclude the further-right Miller from winning the Senate seat.  So I voted for Warner in the primary, the only Republican primary I ever have and likely ever will vote in.

            This, incidentally, is why conservatives in the Virginia GOP like conventions so much; it's much easier for activists to get their way without Democrats, independents, and moderates interfering.

            37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 10:34:46 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Not a doubt in my mind (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, The Dude 415

      That Snyder would run as an independent for re-election if he got a serious 'conservative' challenge from the right.  When he was originally thinking about running it was said that he was actually considering running as an independent and had to be told by the political class in Lansing that there would be no way he could win.  As governor, he'd have a stronger chance of keeping his job as an independent if he was primaried from the right, though, it still be risky.  But, I don't have a doubt that he'd run as an independent if he felt he had to.

      I'd actually not heard about Matty running someone against him, but with someone as amoral as Matty, I'd not at all be surprised.  You'd think in the twilight of his life he'd be thinking about a legacy, but this guy has been this way for YEARS, now.  The funny thing about the bridge is that it doesn't even matter if he has support on this side of the river, numerous Canadian governments have made it crystal-effing-clear that they aren't going to allow him to build a bridge in the location he wants it (i.e. right next to the existing Ambassador Bridge).

      •  I'd have major doubts (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, HoosierD42

        1) He's not very political, which I know sounds funny for a governor, but honestly if he lost a primary he might just say "F It" and walk away. He comes from the business/CEO model where they don't have to put up with that kind of BS and I don't think many of them deal with it well (Romney, Fiorina, McMahon, etc.)
        2) He wasn't willing to use his own money in the last race and he'd have to to have any chance as an Independent.
        3) He didn't run as an I last time despite not being a conservative last time. Remember he was like 6th in the first months of polling on this race. He wasn't the clear Republican (or even secondary) candidate so if he had any inclination to ever run as an I, that would have at least given him pause to do so.
        4) Michigan has no 3rd party inclination at all. Like none.
        5) I think he'd know that running I he'd give the Tea Party guy a decent chance and he's rather just stay out and endorse the Democrat and let them win. Seriously, he'd rather the Democrat would win over someone like his AG and if he was hurting those chances (who knows if he'd help or hurt) he'd back out.

        (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

        by kman23 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 09:12:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Snyder is no Independent (4+ / 0-)

        I know that he loves when people look at him as this moderate and independent looking guy but if we look at his record he has signed almost every piece of shitty legislation that has come across his desk.

        He's Republican... and a fairly conservative one. I just think he's also a smart politician and is playing the moderate game for all it's worth.

        He reminds me a lot of Scott Brown.

        As far as being primaried, It'd definitely possible because of how far to the right the Michigan GOP has gone but I'm not sure it's going to happen because he has made the Republicans happy by signing pretty much every bill.

        I think Gretchen Whitmer runs against Bill Schutte instead of for Gov. and she kills him. Even if we don't have a strong gubernatorial candidate we will have a strong top of the ticket with Carl Levin, unlike last time.

        •  I wasn't (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, blueonyx

          I wasn't saying he is an actual independent or a moderate, rather, it's always how he wanted to run.  I think people tend to forget that running as an independent doesn't mean you don't have an ideology, it's just that you don't want to tie your wagon to either of the major parties for whatever reason.

          My only point is that I could totally see him running as an independent if he lost a Republican primary, though, I think it's far more likely he wins his primary simply because the crazy-ass legislature gives him cover by being so crazy making him looking moderately sane.  It's a good cop/bad cop deal.  At the end of the day, they are both working towards the same goal, which is in nearly the complete opposite direction of liberal Democrats.

          Yeah, I could see Whitmer dispatching Schuette, and I also see Jocylen Benson definitely toppling Johnson in a rematch.  My dream is to make Benson SoS-for-life of Michigan. lol  I think we're going to be stuck with Snyder for another term, unfortunately.  I really wanted to see Dennis Archer take on Snyder, if even just because he'd have really been able to compete for moderates/unaffiliateds and perhaps boosted the Detroit turnout (even though they aren't crazy about him, to say the least).  

          I don't see who we have in the pipeline as a credible candidate.  I imagine Virg - my mayor who I love - running, again, but his personality matches up poorly with Snyder who seems to just float over everything.  Whitmer seems like the obvious choice, but I can't imagine her taking him on this early in her rise.  

          •  I agree (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MetroGnome, MichaelNY, bumiputera

            I could also see Snyder running as an independent if he lost a primary.  I don't really see him losing a primary, unless he does something to really piss off his party in the next year or so.  

            I really hope Bernero doesn't run again.  He just doesn't have any appeal with swing voters.  I'm hoping Whitmer runs because the Dems need a strong candidate.  I would hate to be stuck with Snyder for another term.  It would be another four years when we'll likely get nothing productive done.  If she does run for AG, then John Cherry or Dan Kildee could be options for governor.  Gary Peters is probably running for higher office so he might be an option too.  

            •  I watched the post election Emily's List wrap up. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, askew

              They are heavily focused on Governors races for the next cycle. Which means they are also heavily recruiting and will heavily fund.

              20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 08:39:55 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  There is no way (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              That Dan Kildee is going to give up on/or distract himself from a congressional seat he just won, one that he could keep for life, to take time to run for governor.  Just not going to happen.

              Peters and Cherry are options, and if I just had to, I'd vote for one of them, but I'm not excited about either.

              •  Yeah, I know (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, bumiputera

                Dan Kildee is more hopeful thinking on my part.  I was impressed with him during his short time in the 2010 governors race.  I wish he had become the "anti-Dillon" candidate rather than Bernero.  I could, however, see Kildee running for Levin's seat if he was to retire (which I don't think he will).

                I'm also not excited about Peters but I like Cherry.  I really wish he had stayed in the race in 2010.  He would've matched up against Snyder much better than Bernero.    

  •  I'm finishing work on 2 AZ maps (6+ / 0-)

    just for fun, I want to show what a real gerrymander looks like.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 03:01:56 PM PST

  •  Riverside County, CA (5+ / 0-)

    Ugh so there are still many votes that have yet to be counted/processed.

    Approximately 59,000 provisional and 2,000 damaged ballots that require duplication still must be processed. The next updated results will be posted at 6pm on Monday.
    Currently Mitt Romney only leads Obama by a mere 1,378 votes! I hoping we can flip the county back to Obama. As my home county has currently voted only 4 times for a Democratic Presidential candidate since 1920. The four times are: 1936. 1964, 1992, 2008. Of those only in 1964 did the Democrat win an absolute majority the other 3 were just pluralities.

    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

    by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 03:09:55 PM PST

  •  Ron Paul gets .48% in Nevada County, Ca (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, sapelcovits

    Here is an oddity
    http://www.mynevadacounty.com/...

    Ron Paul gets 237 votes (so far) in Nevada County as a write-in.  Gary Johnson has 780, Stein 603.

    I wonder how many write-ins Paul is getting?  Most counties don't break down the write-ins, but I'm seeing a lot with totals of around .5%.  According to the Wiki, only about 100,000 votes were writeins in 2008.  .5% nationally translates into about 600,000.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 03:37:17 PM PST

  •  just a reminder (8+ / 0-)

    I haven't seen this anywhere yet.  Mazie Hirono got over 62%!

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 04:27:47 PM PST

  •  News websites that don't update their election map (11+ / 0-)

    suck.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 04:51:04 PM PST

  •  NYC Mayor - Stringer out, Carrion in. (3+ / 0-)

    Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer looks almost certain to drop down from running for mayor to running for City Comptroller.  Obviously a safer career move since he'll be the big fish running.   Though he won't have a clear field with Dan Garodnick and Domenic Recchia each wanting the position as well.

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    The article cites weak polling as a reason which I don't really understand since it's still early and all you need to do is inch yourself into second to be in the game.  And Christine Quinn like Mark Green in 2009 is a far stronger primary than runoff candidate.

    But Christine Quinn is the clear winner since Stringer's base like Quinn's is in Manhattan.  This probably cements Quinns chances of making the runoff.  And stronger early polling can help her to get institutional backing.  For example she may end up getting the backing of Joe Crowley and the Queens Democratic Party.  And the path to getting the support of the Manhattan Party just became a lot easier.

    A large part of Stringer's base was among liberals with him trying to go as far left as he can in the primary.  Once even comparing the NYPD clearing of Occupy Wall Street protesters in Zuccotti Park with Tiananmen Square.  It is unclear where those voters go.  They are not keen on Quinn due to her strong ties to Bloomberg and Liu who has made a play for those same voters has his own problems.

    Speaking of Liu I have noticed people drifting back towards him.  And I do understand why.  He has really done a great job in the comptrollers office.  And no one else in the city is able to stand up toe to toe with Bloomberg (and everyone else for that matter) the way John Liu has.   Especially compared to his predecessor Bill Thompson.

    And without any news in awhile an impression that he has survived and triumphed against the worst and people were out to get him.  Which in the case of Bloomberg's sanitation department trying to collect hundreds of thousand of dollars in fines is certainly true.  But in the case of the FBI is ludicrous.  It may be too early to pronounce his mayoral ambitions dead. Like I did a few months ago.

    And this is curious.  Former Bronx Borough President and Obama administration official looks like he wants to run too.

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    But NOT as a Democrat.  In fact he changed his registration to unenrolled.  Which is doubly stupid.  Because if he really did want to run as a Republican he should have changed his registration to that at the deadline like Tom Allon did.  Or at least to the Independence Party if you don't want to formally be a Republican and you're going for that nomination too.

    Of course this begs the question.  I know why some Democrats want to run  as Republicans.  They get a clearer field and a bit less of a headache.  Both Bloomberg and Guiliani were Democrats who switched their registrations to avoid tough primaries.  But they had the field more or less cleared for them and only faced token opposition at best.

    Staten Senator Malcolm Smith, Tom Allon, and Adolfo Carrion are no 500 pound gorillas on the magnitute of Guiliani or Bloomberg.  And in the cases of Carrion and Smith they'd still have to face a millionaire with a recent Republican Party enrollment in Allon and a zillionaire George McDonald.  And more folks with more money than they know what to do with may enter at any time.

    Do they really have it any easier running as a Republican?

    Particularly someone like Carrion who'd have strong appeal to the fast growing Latino population of NYC as well as the Bronx in a very divided Democratic primary.  I really don't get it.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 05:01:34 PM PST

    •  Adolfo Carrion's running mate will be (4+ / 0-)

      none other than Benito Carcass.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 05:29:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  On a serious note... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      Yeah, it looks like the NYC GOP has pretty much exhausted their bench and they've held the Mayoralty for way too long and it's time to swing back (Bloomberg has been an indie the past 5 years, but that doesn't count for much).  Also, the president of Manhattan is a Republican?  Oof.  Reminds me of the fact that Linda Lingle was the Mayor of ultra-blue Maui back in the 90's.

      Switching parties to try to find a way in.  Rush Holt, Sr. did that in WV back in the 50's.  After a stint as a Democratic Senator followed by a failed attempt to run for Governor and then return to the Senate as a Democrat, he ran for Governor as a Republican because the Dem party were dead set on someone else.  He lost and ended up as a Republican member of the State House in the final year or so of his life.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 05:40:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  In Giuliani's case, it seemed to be (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      more of a legitimate ideological change, as opposed to Bloomberg, who didn't want to seem like NYC's version of Corzine.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 08:27:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  i've been doing research (3+ / 0-)

    on former members of congress and lifetime ADA ratings. Right now, I have lifetime ADA ratings out for all members of congress (former and current) who were elected before 1974. Any requests?

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 05:16:10 PM PST

    •  Most liberal and most conservative! :D (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 05:28:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  well its only democrats but i will (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        do the most liberal and conservative.

        Most Liberal (95-100 ratings)
        House
        Abzug, Bella; New York; 1971-1976; 99
        Cohelan, Jeffrey; California; 1963-1970; 95.1
        Drinan, Robert; Massachusetts; 1971-1980; 100
        Edwards, Don; California; 1963-1994; 97.3
        Farbstein, Leonard; New York; 1963-1970; 100
        Gilbert, Jacob; New York; 1963-1970; 96.9
        Gill, Thomas; Hawaii; 1963-1964; 100
        Kastenmeier, Robert; Wisconsin; 1963-1990; 97
        Mikva, Abner; Illinois; 1969-1972; 95
        Roosevelt, James; California; 1963-1964; 96
        Ryan, W.F.; New York; 1963-1972; 98.3
        Seiberling, John; Ohio; 1971-1986; 95
        Shelley. John; California, 1963; 100
        Sickles, Carlton; Maryland; 1963-1966; 100
        Studds, Gerry; Massachusetts; 1973-1996; 95.9

        Senate
        Clark, Joseph; Pennsylvania; 1963-1968; 97.5
        Humphrey, Hubert; Minnesota; 1963-1964; 97
        Kennedy, Robert; New York; 1965-1968; 98.5
        McNamara, Patrick; Michigan; 1963-1965; 98
        Salinger, Pierre; California; 1964; 100

        Most Conservative (0-5)
        House
        Abbitt, Watkins; Virginia; 1963-1972; 1.8
        Abernethy, Tom; Mississippi; 1963-1972; 1.3
        Andrews, George; Alabama; 1963-1971; 4.2
        Ashmore, Robert; South Carolina 1963-1968; 4
        Burleson, Omar; Texas; 1963-1978; 4.9
        Colmer, William; Mississippi; 1963-1972; 2.4
        Daniel, W.C.; Virginia; 1969-1987; 4.1
        Dowdy, John; Texas; 1963-1972; 3.5
        Fisher, O.C.; Texas 1963-1974; 2.3
        Griffin, Charles; Mississippi; 1968-1972; 3.6
        Haley, James; Florida; 1963-1976; 5
        Lennon, Alton; North Carolina; 1963-1972; 3.6
        Marsh, John; Virginia; 1963-1970; 1
        O’Neal, Maston; Georgia; 1965-1970; 4.3
        Satterfield, David; Virginia; 1965-1980; 2.1
        Smith, Howard; Virginia; 1963-1966; 4
        Tuck, William; Virginia; 1963-1968; 1.3
        Waggonner, Joseph; Louisiana; 1963-1978; 3.4
        Williams, John; Mississippi; 1963-1967; 1.8
        Winstead, W.A.; Mississippi; 1963-1964; 0

        Senate
        Eastland, Jim; Mississippi; 1963-1978; 4.5
        Russell, Donald; South Carolina; 1965-1966; 5
        Thurmond. Strom; South Carolina; 1963-9/10/1964; 2.5

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 06:06:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  No Larry McDonald? (0+ / 0-)

          The guy was President of the John Birch Society and even the Dem committee in his Dixiecrat district voted to censure him for his strident conservatism.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 06:11:10 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Ah, Drinan (3+ / 0-)

          As someone who was raised Catholic I always liked the fact that priests used to run for office.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 12:24:55 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  The impressive thing about Mikva is that (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera

          his district was not particularly Democratic in the 70s--according to the "Alamanac of American Politics", the 70s version gave Humphrey, McGovern, and Carter 41%, 38%, and 39% of the vote.  (Which was quite Republican in 1968, since it also gave Wallace only 3% of the vote, although McGovern did about what he did nationally there.)

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 09:57:22 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  from 69-72 he represented a district that was (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

            close to a black majority. In the 1971 remap, his district was merged with another democrat (Morgan Murphy) so he decided to carpetbag to a north shore district.

            RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

            by demographicarmageddon on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 11:04:36 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  But he certainly didn't seem (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              to adjust his voting record to his new constituency.

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 11:07:48 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Meanwhile, Murphy (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              was interesting as well.  The new IL-02 had a sharp Democratic trend and a sharp demographic trend--here's the Almanac of 1978:

              In 1960 less than 20% of the population within the current bounds of the 2d was black; in 1970 it was 40%, and today blacks form a majority.  Blockbusting tactics are a way of life here, and the first For Sale sign on a white block can still trigger a spasm of panic selling.

              [...]

              Thus McGovern won 66% where Humphrey had been able to win only 56%, and Jimmy Carter raised that percentage even further to 77%.

              They called this "the nation's most massive neighborhood racial change in recent years".

              In PVI terms, that's going roughly from D+13 to D+19 to D+26.  But Murphy might not have kept up with with his constituency: his ADA record was 50, 74, 55 in 1974, 1975, 1976,; and by 1980 he'd retired and was replaced by Gus Savage.  I've noticed a vote or two where he was among the Representatives from the most Democratic districts taking the conservative position.  We'd probably have considered him something like a Stephen Lynch or an Artur Davis.

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 11:18:34 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  two others i forgot to mention (3+ / 0-)

        on the most liberal: J.B. Bingham of New York served from 1965-1982 with a lifetime rating of 95; and Ron Dellums of California who served from 1971 to 1997 with a lifetime rating of 95.9

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 10:51:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ron Dellums was a great Representative (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

             who had a much tougher time later when he was Mayor of Oakland.  For a long time he was one of my favorite House members; his successor, Barbara Lee, has continued in that role.

          Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

          by Zack from the SFV on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 10:36:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  hmm how about the leadership (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Tip O'Neill
      Carl Albert
      Jim Wright
      Hale Boggs
      Tom Foley

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 10:10:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI Speaker of the House (7+ / 0-)

    So, I was watching a rerun of Michigan's premier political show "Off the Record" (original air date is every week on Thursday) and they have the new Democratic minority leader (Tim Greimel) on discussing a felon (Brian Backs, District 1) elected to his caucus.  There is rumblings that the GOP majority might not seat the guy or try to expell him if they find him to have "breached the public trust."  Many of the felonies were 10 years ago for writing bad checks, but some recent issues came up where he was evicted from his campaign office during the race.

    Anyway, the minority leader in a roundabout way brought up House Speaker Jase Bolger currently under investigation for election fraud and who won his recent race 51 to 49 in his pretty solidy red district.  For the first time, the leader said that if Bolger is indicted, he'll have his caucus provide the necessary votes if anyone in the Republican majority breaks off to elect a new Speaker if Bolger doesn't step down.  Essentially, he's saying that if they go after Rep. Banks they'll go after Bolger, and with the new 59-51 split, it wouldn't take many Republicans to break off to form a majority to this action.

    This is pretty big stuff, because Dem leaders in recent years have been very docile even while in the majority.  This guy's ready to play hardball.  He also said, essentially, to the rumblings that GOP will try to push Right-to-Work through in this lameduck session that there would be hell if they did it.

    Things are not settled in the Michigan House, at least not quite yet.  Greimel clearly made the point that whereas it is debatable if newly elected rep Banks "breached the public trust" that if Jase Bolger is, indeed, indicted (and possibly convicted) that election fraud is clearly a "breach of the public trust."  There is no way that Bolger should still be in the house after what he did, let alone being elected by his caucus, again, to serve as speaker.

  •  Woodbury Co, Iowa (12+ / 0-)

    officially a McCain 2008/Obama 2012 county.

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 06:27:04 PM PST

  •  Drawing an Obama district in West Virginia (11+ / 0-)

    I forgot to post this when roguemapper added 2008 data for West Virginia, but this was roughly the highest percentage Obama district I could draw:
    Photobucket

    Obama received 51.9% to McCain's 46.4%, making it R+1 for 2008, but since Kerry almost certainly won here too the CPVI would have still been D+ until this year.  Romney almost definitely got close to 55% here though.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 06:30:08 PM PST

  •  MN 2014, Franken & Dayton (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades, lordpet8

    are up, & The Hill article lists some potential candidates
    Republicans look to oust Franken.

    First, Pawlenty has said no for 2014, he's busy raking in the dough lobbying.

    Rep. Paulsen.  A Dem strategist said he'd be the GOP's best chance. However he's on the Ways and Means Committee, so with that job he may not want to take a flyer on moving up in 2014, although it says he has $725K in his warchest.
    Rep. Kline
    Coleman
    Bachmann
    Rich Stanek
    Laura Brod
    Jeff Johnson

    Good news for us:

    Minnesota’s state Republican Party, while in better shape than it was a year ago, remains in disarray. The party still has a large level of debt, though it’s slowly paying it off, and Ron Paul backers hijacked the party’s conventions last spring and nominated one of their own over the establishment’s preferred candidate to challenge Sen. Amy Klobuchar

    Not so good news for us:

    Republicans are considering revisions to their nomination process, changing the tradition of the state party choosing its nominees at a convention to having an open primary.
    •  I'm very confident of both Franken and Dayton (11+ / 0-)

      They're both in really good shape right now.  Dayton's rehabilitation has been stunning, he was so unpopular as a Senator he voluntarily declined to run for reelection.  He's pretty popular now.  I just hope 2 years of one-party rule don't cause state Dems to "overreach," a word I hate but it aptly describes voter perceptions of a party in control doing things that scare them.

      Franken has done great keeping his head low and maintaining a sober and cerebral persona as a Senator.  Only a national anti-Democratic wave election can defeat him.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 09:30:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  it's kinda amusing (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fearlessfred14

      that the very tactics that the Ronulans have been using are the very same ones conservatives once used to take over the GOP party apparatus in the old days.

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 10:27:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Any chance of the legislature passing IRV? (0+ / 0-)

      Instant Runoff Voting or Ranked-Choice Voting? I know it had been under discussion a couple years ago - it would help both the Dems and the IP at the expense of the Republicans. For Democrats - yes, it would raise the odds that some IP'ers will win - but given that IP'ers have cost (or nearly cost) Democrats many seats I'd think it'd be a good thing.

  •  Florida West Murphy update: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Paleo
  •  Something I thought we'd enjoy. (4+ / 0-)

    As you may know, I am a huge fan of the weekend show Up with Chris Hayes on MSNBC. Smartest political talk show on television, bar none (not a high bar, but still true). On his Saturday show, he ends with a segment called Now We Know, which talks about new things discovered over the week. It's usually a broad spectrum of subjects, but this time Chris spent his entire time criticizing Andrew Cuomo for his inaction on State Senate Democrats, and it is in a word, blistering. And I enjoyed it very much.

    So I share it with you.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 02:25:07 AM PST

    •  Sort of related question: (0+ / 0-)

      people here criticize him for his spending cuts and reluctance/refusal to renew the millionaire's tax, but weren't the Republicans in control of the senate at the gym and pretty much refusing to play ball?

      Regardless, stuff like this makes me like him a lot less.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 07:35:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Never have understood the 2016 talk. (4+ / 0-)

      I would rather a Gillibrand run in 2016. Now, that's a campaign I'd be excited about.

      •  I'd love to see her run (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        I really want a strong female contender -- preferably more than one. And I'm back to thinking Secy. Clinton won't run; she seems so very happy at the thought of just getting out of public life altogether, and I think she understands the bench is deep enough that Democrats will be able to field a really strong candidate even if it's not her, so I don't think she's going to feel the pull of obligation -- which I think would be driving her more than the "ambition" for which she was constantly lambasted when she was a senator, if she were to make a run.

        Sen. Gillibrand would be a great candidate.

        Sen.-elect Warren has a free run, since her seat isn't up until 2018, even if I don't see a viable path to the nomination itself for her -- she would be making a statement by running.

        Gov.-elect Hassan could have almost four years of experience running New Hampshire by the time of the first primary in...oh, what's that state called? Oh yes, it's New Hampshire!

        Sen. Klobuchar has been mentioned; frankly, I see it as fairly likely she'll be on the Supreme Court by then. If not, I suppose she could run, but I don't think she has the demeanor. She's a solid senator, though.

        What about Sen. Cantwell? She's only 54, she's very popular, she's not up again until 2018, and she's a bit heterodox (in the tradition of the likes of Sen. Wyden and the late Wayne Morse) but strikes a left to center-left profile. I haven't heard any speculation surrounding her, but I wouldn't be surprised if she's at least considering it.

        And here's a really crazy one: Houston Mayor Annise Parker. Center-left, openly gay, won her last election without even a runoff. As with Warren, I don't see a path to the nomination for her, but I think she'd make some waves.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 12:00:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hassan is probably a strong (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

          contender for the VP slot, as would Cantwell, as would Gillibrand. Out of those three, I'd say Cantwell probably has the best national profile, at least for the Democrats. Both she and Murray are the epitome of the type of voter the Democrats need to stay competitive in lots of states: upscale, educated, solidly Democratic but not too populist. Plus, Cantwell has a background in business, which might protect her from inane but effective attacks from the right.

          I like both Warren and Klobuchar, but I don't see them being presidential material or even vice presidential material.

          As for Annise Parker, I'd much rather her take a shot at running statewide.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 12:23:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  He would get boatloads of wall street money (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        And he'd get residual popularity because of his dad. He also has some decent charisma and would not stop talking about getting Marriage Equality through, his one true liberal accomplishment.

        He's probably the early frontrunner if Hilary doesn't run, unfortunately, although it wouldn't be prohibitive.

  •  NC 7 update (7+ / 0-)
    In the 7th Congressional District race, meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre of Lumberton declared victory after the canvas in the district's 12 mostly southeastern counties gave him 655 more votes than Republican David Rouzer, according to vote totals from the State Board of Elections.

    "I'm honored that the voters of eastern North Carolina have put their trust in me to represent them in Washington," said McIntyre, a conservative eight-term Democrat who was considered a top target by Republicans after redistricting left his home just out of the refigured 7th District.

    The margin would still meet the threshold for Rouzer, an outgoing Johnston County state senator, to seek a recount. A spokeswoman for Rouzer's campaign said Friday he would release a statement early next week.

    http://www.dailyadvance.com/...

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 05:55:55 AM PST

  •  Im pissed at the coup brewing in WA St. Senate (7+ / 0-)

    regarding whether the "moderate democrats," two of them, will side with republicans in creating a coalition government.  We are still wating on the results of St. Senate race 17 where the democrat is still trailing by exactly 100 votes, and there are 1600 more votes to count.  I really hope he wins.  That would give us a 27-22 majority.  If we end up with a 26-23 majority -- look out!  I am so so so tired of democrats fucking over those who elect them, see also New York State Senate.  It is incredibly self-serving and dissappointing -- to say the least.

    27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

    by IndyLiberal on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 07:44:22 AM PST

  •  The 2002 NH senate race. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, James Allen, KingofSpades

    Was just reading up about it, and had no idea it got so ugly.  Apparently the Republicans actually got caught doing voter intimidation and the like?  Two of them got jail time, and their efforts (some say) cost Shaheen the senate seat at that time.  At least she finally got it next time around.

  •  Where did LeftyBlogs go? (0+ / 0-)

    My link to LeftyBlogs.com seemed to die right after the election.  It was listed on the DailyKos page as a recommended site.  Now it is gone?  Do they have a new link or did it cease to exist?  I went there often and will miss it if it is indeed history.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 09:33:06 AM PST

  •  St. Lucie County misses deadline to file certified (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, itskevin, askew

    official results.  Therefore, unofficial certified results will stand.

    http://www.palmbeachpost.com/...

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 09:47:03 AM PST

  •  Patrick Murphy Presumed Winner After Deadline (6+ / 0-)

    lapses . . .

    http://www.cbs12.com/...

    Omg, West is freaking out over this.  He is alleging all sorts of voter fraud and accusing the St. Lucie County Board of "running out the clock:

    https://www.facebook.com/...

    27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

    by IndyLiberal on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 09:47:13 AM PST

  •  Do y'all know about this amazing (8+ / 0-)

    NYC precinct map site?  For all recent races, you can see various precinct-level maps of NYC elections, and it also gives you the correlation coefficients for all the other races(!).  If only NYC had more close elections.

    Anyway, this site is how I was able to easily determine that my dude's new place will be in a massively Republican precinct in Borough Park--John McCain topped 70% of the vote here.  This will be far and away the most Republican precinct I'll have spent any time in, that I can recall.

    A few blocks away there's an 82% Obama precinct adjacent to a 57% McCain precinct.

    So my challenge is: Find me pairs of adjacent precincts, nationally, that match or exceed that kind of political contrast.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 11:28:04 AM PST

    •  I think the best I can get (4+ / 0-)

      in Oregon is in Jackson County: Ashland Rural precinct 18 is 69.7% Obama, White City Rural precinct 31, adjacent, is 33.2% Obama.  If I'm allowed to go outside the county, since 18 is on the county line, then precinct 7 in Klamath County is 31.1% Obama.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 11:42:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm betting that's easily done in the South (7+ / 0-)

      Just look for black precincts that went 90% Obama next to white precincts that went 70-80% McCain.

      •  Bingo, in fact I immediately thought of (8+ / 0-)

        Louisiana which is far and away the most geographically polarized state in the nation at the precinct level, thanks to racially polarized voting and racially segregated cities and towns.

        In fact, as soon as I opened the map on DRA I quickly found a 99.5% Obama precinct next to a 6.8% precinct in northern Louisiana and I'm sure you could find a more extreme pair if you looked for more than 10 seconds.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 03:04:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Though these are very small precincts (5+ / 0-)

          Precincts 1-7A and 1-8E in Vernon Parish are 100% Obama and 100% McCain respectively and border each other.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

          by fearlessfred14 on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 09:10:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  You forget how polarized Louisiana is (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

            when you don't DRA it much. Jeepers! There are precincts like Winn Parish 5-1 where Obama got ZERO votes. Makes you wonder how Mary Landrieu did in those precincts where Obama got less than 10% of the vote. Are they racist and sexist, or just racist?

            Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

            by WisJohn on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 10:14:55 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Small (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, MichaelNY, bumiputera

            1-7A has two VAP and three total. My guess, given the race/ethnicity of each, is that it is a bi-racial couple (one of the voters is white, the other black) with a child (the underage citizen is other).

            1-8E has fifteen VAP (ten white, five black) and seventeen total (ten white, five black, two other). Only five people voted here, all for McCain.

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 10:16:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  You mean the white person in 1-7A (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, wwmiv, jncca

              voted for Obama?!?! Good for them!! Break those stereotypes!

              Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

              by WisJohn on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 10:27:22 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yep (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, bumiputera

                There were two votes for Obama in that precinct and there are two VAP citizens, one white and one black.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                by wwmiv on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 10:58:38 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Wow! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      We don't actually have precincts that red here in Juneau. Elsewhere in Alaska, sure, but not here.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 12:03:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  A couple like that are in the SF Valley (4+ / 0-)

      A 60% Romney precinct in Encino borders a 63% Obama precinct. Up in Chatsworth, there is a 63% Romney that borders a 61% Obama.

      Up in Santa Clarita, there's a couple of more polarized contrasts. 66% Obama borders 69% Romney outside Canyon County, while out in Castaic a 70% Obama borders a 64% Romney. In Newhall, a 61% Obama borders a 76% Romney.

      In Oxnard, I can't say for sure because I don't have the numbers, but some the more upscale precincts that vote strongly Republican may border some of the more Democratic, lower income precincts.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 12:09:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I can actually do better myself (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY, jncca, bumiputera

      in the same area: A bit farther away there's an 80.5% Obama precinct next to an 83.9% McCain precinct, while down at Brooklyn College there's a 97.6% Obama precinct next to a 76.7% McCain precinct.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 12:15:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  And in Manhattan (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      there's a 100% McCain precinct around 34th and 7th (with only 3 voters) next to an 82.2% Obama precinct (and surrounded by others of course).

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 12:18:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Do you get the impression (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, MichaelNY, tk421

        that there's a lot of untapped potential for Democrats or even Republicans in the city? There are at least 8,000,000 people in NYC, but New York hasn't been contested in decades. I'd guess there are at least 1,000,000 voters that might turn out if asked to do so by either side.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 12:26:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  If you guys (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      If you guys are impressed by 82% precincts in NYC, here is one for you:

      The whole city of San Francisco voted at 83.25% for Obama. Romney only got 13% of the vote citywide. LOLZ

    •  That map could be a little confusing to some (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      since for the last 12 years red has equaled Republican and blue Democratic in political parlance, and it was by now odd to see the colors representing opposite parties.

      Also, I have trouble seeing why selected NYC precincts would be Republican, let alone near-unanimously Republican, then or now, but maybe that's just me.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 03:15:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Got you beat (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY, Xenocrypt

      Mequon ward 11 is 60% McCain and borders the 87% Obama Milwaukee Ward 258, at least under the old lines. There's alot of high contrast from that (heavily black) Northwest Corn of Milwaukee when you cross the county line into the heavily conservative Mequon (Ozaukee County) and Menominee Falls (Waukesha County).

      •  If you want to use touch-point (0+ / 0-)

        I believe there would be an even more insane difference with Germantown.

        Social Democrat, WI-05

        by glame on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 07:55:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Though it's not quite touch-point (0+ / 0-)

          as the part of Washington County immediately kitty-corner from Milwaukee County belongs to a warehouse that, for arcane reasons, constitutes the 262nd ward of the City of Milwaukee. It has no residents, and therefore no votes recorded. However, if it is treated as part of the adjoining 15th ward of Germantown, there is a 42-point difference between Milwaukee Ward 261 (76% Obama) and Germantown Ward 15 (32% Obama). So the Mequon-Ward 258 difference is still the biggest in Wisconsin.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

          by fearlessfred14 on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 08:58:42 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Murphy gained votes in retabulation (7+ / 0-)

    So says the Palm Beach Post: http://www.palmbeachpost.com/...

    They don't say how much Murphy netted, but given the new county totals they provide I calculated he gained 242 votes. It was already hard to see West's path...

    •  Even better than hitting the cert deadline! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 12:43:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Am I the only one that finds it depressing (4+ / 0-)

      and more than a little outrageous that CNN has the technology to have holograms of its anchors but that the richest, most powerful country on the face of the earth can't ensure that every vote is counted the first fucking time? I mean, how hard is it to come up with a system that doesn't possibly allow different totals each time the votes are counted?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 12:49:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Holograms draw ratings + make money (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, MichaelNY

        vote counting speed? Not so much. Government is the problem and needs to be destroyed, remember?

      •  some of that blame goes to the (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        state and specific counties. Each one may have different voting systems in place. At let's not forget the mess of dealing with ways to count or not count provisional and damaged ballots.

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 10:07:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Has CNN given up on updating their (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    national popular vote total? Seems like they have stayed the same for days.

    Even worse, their website still says SCOTUS has struck down the healthcare law.

    Okay, I'm kidding about that.

    But the part about the NPV total is true.

  •  Middle America (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, MBishop1, bumiputera

    Photobucket
    Oklahoma
    76 districts
    Unfortunately even with districts of fewer than 50,000 people I couldn't make a majority Native American district here, but I did get a minority majority district (purple) where Native Americans are 39.6% of the population.  It it about 41.7% Obama, with a Democratic average of 56.2%, so I think a Democrat would have a decent chance there.

    I was able to pack a couple of black majority districts, one each in Tulsa (58%) and Oklahoma City (55%).  Southern Oklahoma City also has a Hispanic majority district (54.7% by voting age population, 61.9% by total) which is narrowly an Obama district (50.7%) but more Democratic by the average (57%) so I count it as Democratic.

    There are a few districts that I consider white Democratic districts, including one in Muskogee, where Obama got 44.4%, but the Dem average is over 58%.  It's actually only 56% white, though.  There's one in Tulsa, too, that's not even quite 51% white, where Obama got 49.1%, and the Dem average was 56.8%.  Over in Oklahoma City the white Democratic district is actually D+, at 54% Obama.  Norman has a safe, white Dem district at 55.3% Obama.  Lawton has a heavily African American, but still barely white majority district that Obama lost by only 6 votes, but I have it as a Democratic district as the Dem average there is quite a bit higher.

    Oklahoma City also has three minority majority districts, which I have as Democratic.  Obama got 48.4% in one and won the other two outright, one by a lot.  That one nearly has as many African Americans as whites, and would likely elect a black Democrat.  Tulsa has a minority majority district, too (Orange), but the Dem average there is barely over 50%, and Obama lost it by 10 points, so I have it as a Republican district, though probably trending Democratic.

    There are also 15 "Blue Dog" districts where the Dem average is over 50%, principally in the east.  I think Democrats could win a few where it was almost 60%, and where Obama got over 40% of the vote, but not many of them.  I tried to stretch them as thin as I could, to make them tempting but unlikely targets for Democrats, as this would be a Republican map.

    Photobucket
    Kansas
    58 districts
    Kansas City has an outright African American majority district and also a Hispanic plurality district (actually 50.7% by total population) that are both safely Democratic, and three white majority districts that Obama won by between 7.5 and 18 points.  Lawrence has 2 white majority districts that Obama won by more than 30 points, Topeka has a white majority district Obama won by 22 points, and the only other interesting districts are in Wichita, where there's a nearly black plurality district that's safely Democratic, and a white majority district that Obama narrowly carried, so I count it as likely Democratic.

    Photobucket
    Nebraska
    37 districts
    Lincoln has 3 white majority Democratic districts, where the Dem average was slightly over 50%, but Obama won by 18-23 points.  Omaha has an African American majority district, and 3 safe Democratic white majority districts (one is actually only a plurality by total population, at also 43% Hispanic by total pop), and another where the average of Obama's numbers and the Dem average is slightly above 50-50.  Everything else in the state is probably safely Republican.

    Photobucket
    South Dakota
    17 districts
    Eastern SD has 4 districts that Obama won, all in light blue, which I count as Democratic districts, and another two in yellow that he lost narrowly (one of them by literally 2 votes) where Democrats would probably win, but the rest of the east is gerrymandered to try to keep out of Democratic hands.  In fact, the only remaining Democratic district in the state is the purple Native American district, which, while being nearly 2/3 Native American, is still only about 57.4% Obama, which I packed it as much as I could to make it a safe Native district, and because it's a Republican map.

    Photobucket
    North Dakota
    14 districts
    North Dakota is a hard state to gerrymander, given the geography.  What I mean by that is that it's hard not to draw awful districts and still make a clear Republican gerrymander.
    I did about my best and here is the result.

    1 district in the northeast is D+ and is 25-30% Native American, depending on which measure you use for population.  1 district in Grand Forks and 2 districts in Fargo are D+ by Obama numbers.  One more in the Fargo area (yellow) is about 48.2% Obama, and I think a Democrat would have a good shot at it.  Everything else should be safely Republican.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 01:40:54 PM PST

    •  Your album is private, so I can't see the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      whole states.

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

      by WisJohn on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 01:51:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  OK (0+ / 0-)

      interesting that you could make a D district in Norman (OU) but not in Stillwater (OSU). Thought those cities were about the same size.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 02:55:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I was trying to limit the number of Democratic (0+ / 0-)

        districts, so it may have been possible (I don't remember) but I didn't try to do it.  Norman was so Democratic that I thought I had to vote sink it.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 03:06:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Where do you find the time (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, Jacques Kallis

      to do all of that? lol.  When I was in law school I barely had time to read all the comments on here let alone do more lol

      27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

      by JDJase on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 04:00:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm finding myself with progressively less (0+ / 0-)

        time for it.  I got done with all the Democratic districts in Illinois about a week ago, but haven't done any more work since.  Only NY, FL, TX, and FL to go now, but I don't know when I'll get to them.

        Finals are rapidly approaching now, so it's falling by the wayside.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 04:08:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Wasserman: Obama leads 50.72 to 47.60 (10+ / 0-)

    He's tracking the overall vote now with third parties included. Click from Two Party Vote tab to the Overall Vote tab at the bottom of the workbook. This should be a direct link:

    https://docs.google.com/...

    The raw vote is Obama 63,774,215 to Romney 59,855,162.

  •  That Arizona diary will be up rather later. (0+ / 0-)

    the cropping, resizing, and a few image effects I added to the map jpgs haven't yet been applied to the embedded versions.  I guess it takes time for the server to make those changes.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 02:23:45 PM PST

  •  FL-18: Murphy confirmed to have netted 242 votes (6+ / 0-)

    after the Sat-Sun retabulation:
    http://www.politico.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 02:34:25 PM PST

  •  Nevada presidential vote in a nutshell (10+ / 0-)

    Obama wins state by 68k.
    Obama wins Clark by 101k.
    Obama wins Washoe by 7k.
    Obama loses cow counties by 40k.

    Obama lost the cow counties by 30k last time.  Losing them by 40k is about what they basically tap out at.  If Obama had gotten zero votes from the cow counties, he still would have won.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 03:14:51 PM PST

    •  All results, even FL-18 hereby certified? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      Finally, closure.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 04:01:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Congrats to Joe Garcia. (6+ / 0-)

      He finally won.  And I don't think it was as much a fluke as the FL GOP want to think it is.  Sure Rivera was a massively corrupt man and the GOP cut the strings when he stepped in it yet again after they cleared the primary for him, but this district will not be easy to win back (as it was to win back Mark Foley's district).  They swapped its portion of red Collier County for light blue Monroe County.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 04:05:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NYC-Mayor, NYC-Comptroller: Stringer swaps races (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, sulthernao

    Link

    This is a good career move for him, since his biggest problem running for mayor was that Manhattan Borough President is seen as a ceremonial post (although he treated it seriously, which is something I admire.) He's raised $600K+ so he should breeze through the comptroller race, although he never polled very well in the mayoral race.

    It's also useful however, since the leftist anti-Quinn vote won't be as split as many ways. It probably helps third wheel De Blasio more than Thompson, but every vote helps him.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 05:15:44 PM PST

  •  Arizona provisionals (4+ / 0-)

    All races are called, but interesting to get confirmation provisionals are breaking heavily Democratic: With Pima done or nearly done, Rep. Barber now leads by 2300 votes. That's a substantial 0.8%... not so close anymore.

    And in the Senate race, Carmona now trails by 3.27% (72,000 votes). Flake's lead stood around 4.25% just 4-5 days ago.

  •  House Retirement Watch 2014 (7+ / 0-)

    House members who will be 70 years or older on election day 2014 in reasonably swingy districts:

    DEMOCRATS

    1. NY-25 – Louise Slaughter (85) – D+5
    2. MI-09 – Sander Levin (83) – D+5.   
    3. NY-17 – Nita Lowey (77) – D+5
    4. CA-24 – Lois Capps (76) – D+3
    5. TX-15 – Ruben Hinojosa (74) – D+1
    6. NY-04 – Carolyn McCarthy (70) – D+3
    7. MN-07 – Collin Peterson (70) – R+5

    REPUBLICANS

    1. FL-13 – Bill Young (83) – R+1
    2. CA-25 – Buck McKeon (76) – R+5
    3. VA-10 – Frank Wolf (75) – R+4
    4. PA-16 – Joe Pitts (75) – R+6
    5. WI-06 – Tom Petri (74) – R+5
    6. FL-07 – John Mica (71) – R+5
    7. NY-02 – Peter King (70) - EVEN   

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 07:11:01 PM PST

    •  I hope Peterson doesn't retire for a while yet. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, jj32, MichaelNY, lordpet8

      There are still some blue parts in MN-7, and some good local democrats, too. But whoever the Dem is, they will be the underdog when CP hangs it up. I hope he campaigns with them. That might help.

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

      by WisJohn on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 07:28:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, once he retires... (0+ / 0-)

        That district is gone, probably permanently.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 09:50:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  There is still a small chance we can hold it. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Or at least get it in waves. At least in the current version, as MN will probably lose a seat in 2020. There are good local Dems there that some Republicans may not be averse to vote for. Legislators Kent Eken, Larry Hosch, Andrew Falk. A Dem from Wilmar.

          Maybe Peterson will do everyone a favor and retire after the next census, after the presumed loss of a district. He isn't that old.

          Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

          by WisJohn on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 10:02:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  What are the trends like (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        In that area? Has the district been getting bluer over time or no?

        "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

        by xcave on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 10:04:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  MN-07 is moving away from Dems. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          But there are still pockets of Dems around it (Moorhead, Litchfield, Appleton area), and the right one could possibly hold it.

          Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

          by WisJohn on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 10:41:53 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Lee Rogers seemed to do surprisingly well (4+ / 0-)

      in CA-25. Lost 56-44 in a seat I dont think anyone had as that competitive. That could be a pickup if McKeon retires. FL-13 would be competitive too if Young retired.

      Seems like Peterson's seat would be difficult to hold, but we could be in decent shape to hold every other Dem seat.

    •  TX-15 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jncca

      Once the PVI is re-calculated, TX-15 will probably be D+6 or so. Obama won 57% there in 2008 and it looks like he probably got about the same percentage this year. I doubt it would be competitive if open.

      •  Probably more (0+ / 0-)

        He could have gotten up to 60% there this time, just eyeballing it.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 05:38:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Nevermind (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          After doing some more math, depending on where the votes came from in Hidalgo county - and remember that this district takes in some of the more Republican areas (ofcourse, relatively) of the county - Obama's percentage in two party vote could be anywhere between 49% and 55%.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 05:58:57 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Can someone tell me where I can find numbers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    on aggregate outside spending for major races, Missouri in particular (paging Xenocrypt).  I've looked at opensecrets and FEC.gov but those appear to only be the numbers for the campaigns themselves.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 11:06:29 PM PST

  •  House Retirement Watch 2014 Part II (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Awfully early for this, but these are the House members I suspect may seek a promotion to higher office and leave reasonably swingy House seats.  Did not see any Democrats who fit that description.

    1. AR-02 (Griffin) – R+5 - AR-Sen
    2. CO-06 (Coffman) – R+1 - CO-Sen
    3. IA-03 (Latham) – R+1 - IA-Sen
    4. IA-04 (King) – R+4 - IA-Sen
    5. MN-02 (Kline) – R+2 - MN-Sen
    6. MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+2 - MN-Sen

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 04:39:35 AM PST

    •  1. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Although he may pull the lever, this seat should not be on anyone's radar as a pick-up. It's trending in the wrong direction.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 05:40:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm getting huge flashbacks to the couple of days after the 2010 election with this post. Almost deja vu.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 05:40:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think we have the same shot (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

        at this as most any other R+5 seat.  Maybe a little better because we have a bench here due to historic Democratic dominance.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 06:14:19 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  risky (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, spiderdem

      Except for AR2 and IA4, all of those would be putting the house seat at risk for a senate bid that would be an uphill fight. Obermueller would probably win MN2 outright if Kline vacated the seat, and a Graves type Dem would probably do well in MN3. IA3 is an Obama district that would be a tossup at worst for Dems if Latham left.

      I don't know how CO6 went this cycle, but it's a ticking bomb for the GOP. Like CA7 and AZ9, it's a diversifying built-out older suburban district and a lock to trend blue. I'd give Dems 50-50 or better to take it in 2016 even if Coffman stays, but if he goes some Dem (maybe even Miklosi) will probably win it in 2014 and by 2016 it will be too late, as the Dem will be entrenched just like Perlmutter is in CO7.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 08:45:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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