Because it is never too early, here are my all-important prognostications for 2014, which are guaranteed to be completely correct no matter what or I will return every cent you paid for them. I am using 2008 PVI's for everything, since 2012 PVI's are not yet set in stone, even for entire states (at least not all of them).
SENATE
Everyone knows this looks ugly on paper. Democrats have a five-seat majority, and are defending seven solidly R+ seats. Convincing incumbents to run in these races will be key, with the exception of West Virginia where we will probably do better with a new candidate. I have a hard time seeing Republicans picking up fewer than three or four of these seats, and the chamber is clearly in play. The good news is nothing jumps out at me as a definite loss that will not even be in play. The bad news is I see no enticing offensive opportunities for Democrats unless Susan Collins retires.
DEMOCRATIC SEATS
Tossup
1. AK (Begich) – R+13 – Begich has to like the big shift towards Obama here in 2012.
2. AR (Pryor) – R+9 – Pryor just the right candidate to hold this very tough seat.
3. LA (Landrieu) – R+10 – Landrieu has to like subtle but perceptible shift towards Obama here.
4. MT (Baucus) – R+7 – Candidate recruitment could be a problem for the GOP here.
5. NC (Hagan) – R+4 – This will be really tough for Hagan to hold in a mid-term.
6. SD (Johnson) – R+9 – With Herseth-Sandlin a lobbyist, Johnson may be only hope.
7. WV (Rockefeller) – R+9 – This is Shelley Moore Capito’s race to lose, but Dems have options.
Lean D
1. CO (Udall) – EVEN – Udall should be OK due to structural Dem advantages here.
2. IA (Harkin) – D+1 – Latham could make this interesting.
3. MN (Franken) – D+2 – Franken has been a good Senator and deserves re-election.
4. NH (Shaheen) – D+2 – Shaheen solid, but NH voters can be fickle.
Likely D
1. MI (Levin) – D+4 – Hoping Levin runs for one more term.
2. NJ (Lautenberg) – D+4 – Dems should be OK in NJ whether Lautenberg runs or not.
3. NM (Udall) – D+2 – Udall ran very, very strong in 2008.
4. OR (Merkley) – D+4 – Democratic fundamentals should carry Merkley through.
5. VA (Warner) – R+2 – Seat pretty safe if Warner runs again.
Safe D
1. DE (Coons) – D+7 – Only Castle could win here, and he won’t try.
2. IL (Durbin) – D+8 – Should be smooth sailing whether Durbin runs or not.
3. MA (Kerry) – D+12 – Moves to Lean Dem if Kerry retires and Scott Brown runs.
4. RI (Reed) – D+11 – Reed won’t have to break a sweat.
REPUBLICAN SEATS
Likely R
1. KY (McConnell) – R+10 – Knocking off incumbent in KY mid-term too much to ask.
2. ME (Collins) – D+5 – Virtually safe if Collins runs for re-election.
3. SC (Graham) – R+8 – Some hope if a complete loon beats Graham in primary.
Safe R
1. AL (Sessions) – R+13 – Yeah, right.
2. GA (Chambliss) – R+7 – Whatever.
3. ID (Risch) – R+17 – No way.
4. KS (Roberts) – R+12 – Gag me with a spoon.
5. MS (Cochran) – R+10 – No dice.
6. NE (Johanns) – R+13 – Not a chance.
7. OK (Inhofe) – R+17 – Not on your life.
8. TN (Alexander) – R+9 – When pigs fly.
9. TX (Cornyn) – R+10 – Still too soon for this to be competitive.
10. WY (Enzi) – R+20 – Abandon all hope, ye who enter WY.
GOVERNORS
Due to the Republican successes in blue states in 2010, this map shapes up pretty well for Democrats. I anticipate Dems picking up a few seats, maybe as many as four.
DEMOCRATIC SEATS
Tossup
1. AR (OPEN) – R+9 – Tough seat, but Democrats have some compelling candidates.
Lean D
1. CO (Hickenlooper) – EVEN – Democrats seem to have build a strong structural advantage.
2. MN (Dayton) – D+2 – Dayton seems to have fared pretty well in approval ratings.
3. NH (Hassan) – D+2 – Very impressive win by Hassan this year.
Likely D
1. CA (Brown) – D+7 – Strong fundamentals should pull Brown through.
2. CT (Malloy) – D+7 – Same here. Malloy not overly popular.
3. HI (Abercrombie) – D+12 – Abercrombie very unpopular. Primary might be in order.
4. IL (Quinn) – D+8 – Quinn will very likely see a primary. Probably a good thing.
5. MA (OPEN) – D+12 – Can’t see Scott Brown even seeming like a good choice for governor.
6. OR (Kitzhaber) – D+4 – Strong Democratic fundamentals here.
7. RI (Chafee) – D+11 – Chafee pretty unpopular. Maybe an opportunity for a real Dem.
8. VT (Shumlin) – D+13 – Shumlin should pull through, but R's have a candidate in LG Phil Scott.
Safe D
1. MD (OPEN) – D+9 – Abandon all hope, MD Republicans.
2. NY (Cuomo) – D+10 – Love him or hate him, Cuomo rock solid electorally.
REPUBLICAN SEATS
Lean D Pickup
1. ME (LePage) – D+5 – LePage was a fluke, hopefully never to be repeated.
Tossup
1. FL (Scott) – R+2 – Florida is tough in mid-terms, but we have to get this guy out of here.
2. MI (Snyder) – D+4 – Should be a very good pickup opportunity
3. NJ (Christie) – D+4 – Christie sitting pretty right now, but it’s a very blue state.
4. OH (Kasich) – R+1 – This one should be a dogfight.
5. PA (Corbett) – D+2 – Corbett is not particularly popular.
6. VA (OPEN) – R+2 – Dems should have a solid chance at this open seat.
7. WI (Walker) – D+2 – Walker looked awfully strong in the recall.
Lean R
1. AZ (OPEN) – R+6 – Not overly optimistic about this, but it’s an open seat.
2. IA (Branstad) – D+1 – Branstad has a lot of cache in this state.
3. NM (Martinez) – D+2 – Martinez’s approvals sky high.
4. NV (Sandoval) – D+1 – Ditto for Sandoval.
Likely R
1. SC (Haley) – R+8 – Surprisingly close race in 2010.
2. TX (Perry) – R+10 – Dems will have to make a run at this fool if he runs again.
Safe R
1. AK (Parnell) – R+13 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Alaska.
2. AL (Bentley) – R+13 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Alabama.
3. GA (Deal) – R+7 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Georgia.
4. ID (Otter) – R+17 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Idaho.
5. KS (Brownback) – R+12 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Kansas.
6. NE (OPEN) – R+13 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Nebraska.
7. OK (Fallin) – R+17 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Oklahoma.
8. SD (Daugaard) – R+9 – Forget it, Jake, it’s South Dakota.
9. TN (Haslam) – R+9 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Tennessee.
10. WY (Mead) – R+20 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Wyoming.
US HOUSE
I anticipate Republicans will pick up just a few seats – roughly five. Most of the 2012 pickups on both sides were in districts that the current incumbent party should hold, but what little “low hanging fruit” exists is mostly on the Democratic side. Very frustrating how many Republican seats there are that are tempting, but just barely out of our reach. A sure sign of some very effective gerrymanders across the country.
DEMOCRATIC SEATS
Tossup
1. AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) – R+3 – AZ districts tougher in mid-terms.
2. AZ-02 (Barber) – R+2 – Barber doesn’t seem as solid in this district as Giffords.
3. AZ-09 (Sinema) – R+1 – Sinema a bit of a wild card, but I like her.
4. CA-07 (Bera) – R+3 – Should be a decent chance to hold Dem-trending seat.
5. CA-36 (Ruiz) – R+3 – Another Dem-trending CA seat.
6. FL-18 (Murphy) – R+1 – West will be back and will be tough to beat in a mid-term.
7. FL-26 (Garcia) – R+4 – Very difficult territory in a FL mid-term.
8. NC-07 (McIntyre) – R+11 – Amazing win for McIntyre given vicious gerrymander.
9. NH-01 (Shea-Porter) – EVEN – Political whims of NH can shift wildly.
10. NY-18 (Maloney) – R+2 – Biggest surprise winner for Democrats (to me).
11. NY-21 (Owens) – R+2 – Owens squeaked by, but reached 50% for the first time.
12. TX-23 (Gallego) – R+5 – Latino-dominated district much tougher in mid-terms.
Lean D
1. CA-26 (Brownley) – D+2 - Winning the open seat was the tough part here.
2. CA-52 (Peters) – D+1 – Impressive win over longstanding incumbent Bilbray.
3. CT-05 (Esty) – D+2 – Chris Murphy held this one pretty easily.
4. GA-12 (Barrow) – R+9 – Barrow’s last three elections have been dominating.
5. IL-12 (Enyart) – D+2 – Enyart came in on short notice and rocked Plummer’s world.
6. NH-02 (Kuster) – D+3 – Energetic candidate should hold this seat.
7. MN-08 (Nolan) – D+3 – Really impressive win over incumbent Cravaack.
8. NV-04 (Horsford) – D+2 – Midterm turnout could make for a closer race.
9. NY-01 (Bishop) – EVEN – Two close elections in a row for Bishop.
10. NY-24 (Maffei) – D+4 – Maffei’s results have not been particularly impressive.
11. UT-04 (Matheson) – R+14 – Matheson survived the worst he could possibly face.
12. WA-01 (DelBene) – D+3 – Self-funder DelBene should be in pretty good shape.
13. WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6 – Rahall won easily with little outside help.
Likely D
1. CA-03 (Garamendi) – D+1 – Garamendi ended up closer than targeted CA Dems.
2. CA-09 (McNerney) – D+2 – Double-digit win in GOP targeted district.
3. CA-16 (Costa) – D+2 – Costa survived 2010 pretty comfortably.
4. CA-24 (Capps) – D+3 – Another double-digit win in GOP targeted district.
5. CA-41 (Takano) – D+3 – Takano proved skeptics wrong with blowout win.
6. CA-47 (Lowenthal) – D+5 – Solid double digit open-seat win.
7. CO-07 (Perlmutter) – D+3 – Perlmutter owns this district.
8. FL-22 (Frankel) – D+5 – Commanding win over very well-funded opponent.
9. HI-01 (Hanabusa) – D+11 – Hanabusa ran WAY behind Obama.
10. IA-01 (Braley) – D+5 – Braley survived 2010 wave and came on strong in 2012.
11. IA-02 (Loebsack) – D+4 – Ditto for Loebsack.
12. IL-08 (Duckworth) – D+6 – Thought Duckworth would beat Walsh by more.
13. IL-10 (Schneider) – D+8 – Should get a lot easier after squeaking by Dold.
14. IL-11 (Foster) – D+5 – Wow did he beat Biggert by a lot.
15. IL-17 (Bustos) – D+6 – Surprising margin of victory in race that looked uphill.
16. MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7 – Can’t imagine Tierney having a worse cycle than this one.
17. MD-06 (Delaney) – D+2 – Blew out incumbent Bartlett by 21%.
18. ME-02 (Michaud) – D+2 – Pretty routine victory over non-trivial opponent.
19. MN-01 (Walz) – R+1 – Walz survived 2010 wave with room to spare.
20. MN-07 (Peterson) – R+5 – Peterson very well entrenched in this district.
21. NM-01 (Lujan Grisham) – D+5 – Dominating open seat win for Lujan Grisham.
22. NY-03 (Israel) – D+3 – Israel has a pretty tough district and did not overwhelm.
23. NY-25 (Slaughter) – D+5 – Hard to imagine GOP cooking up a better challenge than it did.
24. OR-04 (DeFazio) – D+2 – DeFazio safe as long as Art Robinson is his opponent.
25. OR-05 (Schrader) – EVEN – Tough district, but got a free pass in 2012.
26. RI-01 (Cicilline) – D+14 – Like Tierney, nowhere to go but up for Cicilline.
27. WA-06 (Kilmer) – D+5 – Dominating open seat win for Kilmer.
28. WA-10 (Heck) – D+4 – Same for Heck. Should hold this easily.
REPUBLICAN SEATS
Tossup
1. CA-31 (Miller) – D+2 – Fluke win for Miller, who is too conservative for this district.
2. IL-13 (Davis) – D+1 – DCCC failure to immediately accept Gill hurt here.
3. MI-11 (Bentivolio) – R+4 – I will ask Santa Claus for GOP to re-nominate Bentivolio.
Lean R
1. CO-06 (Coffman) – R+1 – Dems can probably do better than Miklosi here.
2. NV-03 (Heck) – EVEN – Same is true of Oceguera, who was a disappointing candidate.
3. NY-19 (Gibson) – EVEN – Pretty impressive win for Gibson in tough district.
Likely R
1. AR-01 (Crawford) – R+7 – AR districts trending the wrong way to say the least.
2. AR-02 (Griffin) – R+5 – We have a shot at this one if Griffin runs for Senate.
3. CA-10 (Denham) – R+5 – Surprisingly strong victory for Denham.
4. CA-21 (Valadao) – R+3 – Will be interesting to see what a stronger Dem can do here.
5. CA-25 (McKeon) – R+5 – McKeon cannot like the way this district is trending.
6. CA-49 (Issa) – R+5 – Would love to see Dems take a run at this clown.
7. CO-03 (Tipton) – R+4 – Commanding victory over strong recruit.
8. FL-02 (Southerland) – R+3 – Will be next to impossible to pick up in a mid-term.
9. FL-06 (DeSantis) – R+6 – Surprisingly strong performance for Dem Beaven here.
10. FL-07 (Mica) – R+5 – Underwhelming win over a “some dude” in 2012.
11. FL-10 (Webster) – R+7 – Demings ran strong here, but district is too tough.
12. FL-13 (Young) – R+1 – We won’t get this one until Young retires.
13. FL-16 (Buchanan) – R+5 – Maybe if Buchanan’s ethical chickens finally come home to roost.
14. IA-03 (Latham) – R+1 – Really dominating win over Boswell.
15. IA-04 (King) – R+4 – Best run we could make at King came well short.
16. IL-06 (Roskam) – R+5 – GOP district a huge long-shot for Dems.
17. IL-14 (Hultgren) – R+6 – Same for this one.
18. IN-02 (Walorski) – R+7 – Closeness of open seat race surprised both parties.
19. IN-08 (Bucshon) – R+8 – Double-digit win over pretty good recruit.
20. IN-09 (Young) – R+9 – Shelli Yoder made a decent run at this.
21. KY-06 (Barr) – R+7 – I still do not understand how Chandler lost in 2012, but not 2010.
22. MI-01 (Benishek) – R+4 – Strong run at this guy came up just a hair short.
23. MI-03 (Amash) – R+5 – Amash is unorthodox, but got the job done.
24. MI-06 (Upton) – R+1 – O’Brien ran pretty strong against Upton.
25. MI-07 (Walberg) – R+3 – Walberg held to 10 point win against a some dude.
26. MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2 – Not an overwhelming district, but Rogers pretty entrenched.
27. MN-02 (Kline) – R+2 – Republicans should keep this as long as Kline is around.
28. MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+2 – Paulsen may leave this vulnerable if he runs for Senate.
29. MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+8 – Heartbreaking that Graves came so close.
30. MT-AL (Daines) – R+7 – Double-digit open seat win for Daines.
31. NC-08 (Hudson) – R+11 – Should be an easy GOP hold after knocking off Kissell.
32. NC-09 (Pittenger) – R+10 – Shockingly close open seat race should become easy hold.
33. NC-13 (Holding) – R+9 – Frustrating recruiting failure in not THAT red a district.
34. ND-AL (Cramer) – R+10 – Strong double-digit open seat win for Cramer.
35. NE-02 (Terry) – R+6 – Ewing came close, but we won’t get this one in a mid-term.
36. NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – EVEN – LoBiondo solid in tough district.
37. NJ-03 (Runyan) – R+2 – Had hoped Adler would give Runyan a tougher run.
38. NJ-05 (Garrett) – R+4 – Garrett only won by 14% against unfunded candidate.
39. NJ-07 (Lance) – R+6 – Lance easily dispatched well-funded opponent.
40. NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) – R+5 – Frelinghuysen a little underwhelming in GOP district.
41. NM-02 (Pearce) – R+6 – Dems held this seat not long ago.
42. NY-02 (King) – EVEN – Would love to see a stronger Dem take a run at this jackass.
43. NY-11 (Grimm) – R+4 – Pretty safe unless more comes of Grimm’s ethical problems.
44. NY-23 (Reed) – R+3 – Impressive performance by Shinagawa will be tough to repeat.
45. NY-27 (Collins) – R+7 – Collins should entrench in very red district.
46. OH-06 (Johnson) – R+5 – Hard to do better than Wilson in reddening area.
47. OH-07 (Gibbs) – R+5 – Would like to see a stronger candidate take a run at this.
48. OH-14 (Joyce) – R+3 – Got a lucky free pass for the open seat.
49. OH-16 (Renacci) – R+5 – Sutton ran a good race but the district was too red.
50. PA-03 (Kelly) – R+5 – Second tier Dem candidate kept this within reason.
51. PA-06 (Gerlach) – R+1 – Dems were ripped to shreds in the Philly suburbs.
52. PA-07 (Meehan) – EVEN – Particularly George Badey, who was pasted by 19%.
53. PA-08 (Fitzpatrick) – D+1 – And Kathy Boockvar fared little better.
54. PA-11 (Barletta) – R+6 – Not an overwhelming win in a pretty GOP district.
55. PA-12 (Rothfus) – R+6 – Might be competitive if Altmire makes a run at it.
56. PA-15 (Dent) – R+2 – Surprised Dent didn’t win by more over underfunded candidate.
57. PA-16 (Pitts) – R+6 – Redistricted bluer, but not blue enough.
58. SC-05 (Mulvaney) – R+9 – Mulvaney won by only 12 against some dude(tte).
59. SC-07 (Rice) – R+7 – Tinubu kept this within reason.
60. SD-AL (Noem) – R+9 – Very impressive win over non-trivial candidate.
61. TX-14 (Weber) – R+8 – We can’t do better than Nick Lampson here.
62. VA-01 (Wittman) – R+8 – Not an overwhelming win over Adam Cook.
63. VA-02 (Rigell) – R+5 – Strong win in district where Obama performed well.
64. VA-04 (Forbes) – R+6 – Underwhelming win over second tier candidate.
65. VA-05 (Hurt) – R+6 – Pretty solid win over pretty well-funded candidate.
66. WA-03 (Herrera Beutler) – R+2 – Got a pass in 2012 in a pretty tough district.
67. WA-08 (Reichert) – R+2 – Ditto. Would like to see these targeted at some point.
68. WI-01 (Ryan) – R+3 – Very impressive performance by Rob Zerban here.
69. WI-07 (Duffy) – EVEN – Northern Wisconsin not trending well for Democrats.
70. WI-08 (Ribble) – R+2 – Same as WI-07. Did not look good at all.