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Because it is never too early, here are my all-important prognostications for 2014, which are guaranteed to be completely correct no matter what or I will return every cent you paid for them.  I am using 2008 PVI's for everything, since 2012 PVI's are not yet set in stone, even for entire states (at least not all of them).

SENATE

Everyone knows this looks ugly on paper.  Democrats have a five-seat majority, and are defending seven solidly R+ seats.  Convincing incumbents to run in these races will be key, with the exception of West Virginia where we will probably do better with a new candidate.  I have a hard time seeing Republicans picking up fewer than three or four of these seats, and the chamber is clearly in play.  The good news is nothing jumps out at me as a definite loss that will not even be in play.  The bad news is I see no enticing offensive opportunities for Democrats unless Susan Collins retires.

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

Tossup

1. AK (Begich) – R+13 – Begich has to like the big shift towards Obama here in 2012.
2. AR (Pryor) – R+9 – Pryor just the right candidate to hold this very tough seat.
3. LA (Landrieu) – R+10 – Landrieu has to like subtle but perceptible shift towards Obama here.
4. MT (Baucus) – R+7 – Candidate recruitment could be a problem for the GOP here.
5. NC (Hagan) – R+4 – This will be really tough for Hagan to hold in a mid-term.
6. SD (Johnson) – R+9 – With Herseth-Sandlin a lobbyist, Johnson may be only hope.
7. WV (Rockefeller) – R+9 – This is Shelley Moore Capito’s race to lose, but Dems have options.

Lean D

1. CO (Udall) – EVEN – Udall should be OK due to structural Dem advantages here.
2. IA (Harkin) – D+1 – Latham could make this interesting.
3. MN (Franken) – D+2 – Franken has been a good Senator and deserves re-election.
4. NH (Shaheen) – D+2 – Shaheen solid, but NH voters can be fickle.

Likely D

1. MI (Levin) – D+4 – Hoping Levin runs for one more term.
2. NJ (Lautenberg) – D+4 – Dems should be OK in NJ whether Lautenberg runs or not.
3. NM (Udall) – D+2 – Udall ran very, very strong in 2008.
4. OR (Merkley) – D+4 – Democratic fundamentals should carry Merkley through.
5. VA (Warner) – R+2 – Seat pretty safe if Warner runs again.

Safe D

1. DE (Coons) – D+7 – Only Castle could win here, and he won’t try.
2. IL (Durbin) – D+8 – Should be smooth sailing whether Durbin runs or not.
3. MA (Kerry) – D+12 – Moves to Lean Dem if Kerry retires and Scott Brown runs.
4. RI (Reed) – D+11 – Reed won’t have to break a sweat.

REPUBLICAN SEATS

Likely R

1. KY (McConnell) – R+10 – Knocking off incumbent in KY mid-term too much to ask.
2. ME (Collins) – D+5 – Virtually safe if Collins runs for re-election.
3. SC (Graham) – R+8 – Some hope if a complete loon beats Graham in primary.

Safe R

1. AL (Sessions) – R+13 – Yeah, right.
2. GA (Chambliss) – R+7 – Whatever.
3. ID (Risch) – R+17 – No way.
4. KS (Roberts) – R+12 – Gag me with a spoon.
5. MS (Cochran) – R+10 – No dice.
6. NE (Johanns) – R+13 – Not a chance.
7. OK (Inhofe) – R+17 – Not on your life.
8. TN (Alexander) – R+9 – When pigs fly.
9. TX (Cornyn) – R+10 – Still too soon for this to be competitive.
10. WY (Enzi) – R+20 – Abandon all hope, ye who enter WY.

GOVERNORS

Due to the Republican successes in blue states in 2010, this map shapes up pretty well for Democrats.  I anticipate Dems picking up a few seats, maybe as many as four.

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

Tossup

1. AR (OPEN) – R+9 – Tough seat, but Democrats have some compelling candidates.

Lean D

1. CO (Hickenlooper) – EVEN – Democrats seem to have build a strong structural advantage.
2. MN (Dayton) – D+2 – Dayton seems to have fared pretty well in approval ratings.
3. NH (Hassan) – D+2 – Very impressive win by Hassan this year.

Likely D

1. CA (Brown) – D+7 – Strong fundamentals should pull Brown through.
2. CT (Malloy) – D+7 – Same here.  Malloy not overly popular.
3. HI (Abercrombie) – D+12 – Abercrombie very unpopular.  Primary might be in order.
4. IL (Quinn) – D+8 – Quinn will very likely see a primary.  Probably a good thing.
5. MA (OPEN) – D+12 – Can’t see Scott Brown even seeming like a good choice for governor.
6. OR (Kitzhaber) – D+4 – Strong Democratic fundamentals here.
7. RI (Chafee) – D+11 – Chafee pretty unpopular.  Maybe an opportunity for a real Dem.
8. VT (Shumlin) – D+13 – Shumlin should pull through, but R's have a candidate in LG Phil Scott.

Safe D

1. MD (OPEN) – D+9 – Abandon all hope, MD Republicans.
2. NY (Cuomo) – D+10 – Love him or hate him, Cuomo rock solid electorally.

REPUBLICAN SEATS

Lean D Pickup

1. ME (LePage) – D+5 – LePage was a fluke, hopefully never to be repeated.

Tossup

1. FL (Scott) – R+2 – Florida is tough in mid-terms, but we have to get this guy out of here.
2. MI (Snyder) – D+4 – Should be a very good pickup opportunity
3. NJ (Christie) – D+4 – Christie sitting pretty right now, but it’s a very blue state.
4. OH (Kasich) – R+1 – This one should be a dogfight.
5. PA (Corbett) – D+2 – Corbett is not particularly popular.
6. VA (OPEN) – R+2 – Dems should have a solid chance at this open seat.
7. WI (Walker) – D+2 – Walker looked awfully strong in the recall.

Lean R

1. AZ (OPEN) – R+6 – Not overly optimistic about this, but it’s an open seat.
2. IA (Branstad) – D+1 – Branstad has a lot of cache in this state.
3. NM (Martinez) – D+2 – Martinez’s approvals sky high.
4. NV (Sandoval) – D+1 – Ditto for Sandoval.

Likely R

1. SC (Haley) – R+8 – Surprisingly close race in 2010.
2. TX (Perry) – R+10 – Dems will have to make a run at this fool if he runs again.

Safe R

1. AK (Parnell) – R+13 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Alaska.
2. AL (Bentley) – R+13 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Alabama.
3. GA (Deal) – R+7 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Georgia.
4. ID (Otter) – R+17 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Idaho.
5. KS (Brownback) – R+12 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Kansas.
6. NE (OPEN) – R+13 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Nebraska.
7. OK (Fallin) – R+17 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Oklahoma.
8. SD (Daugaard) – R+9 – Forget it, Jake, it’s South Dakota.
9. TN (Haslam) – R+9 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Tennessee.
10. WY (Mead) – R+20 – Forget it, Jake, it’s Wyoming.

US HOUSE

I anticipate Republicans will pick up just a few seats – roughly five.  Most of the 2012 pickups on both sides were in districts that the current incumbent party should hold, but what little “low hanging fruit” exists is mostly on the Democratic side.  Very frustrating how many Republican seats there are that are tempting, but just barely out of our reach.  A sure sign of some very effective gerrymanders across the country.  

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

Tossup

1. AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) – R+3 – AZ districts tougher in mid-terms.
2. AZ-02 (Barber) – R+2 – Barber doesn’t seem as solid in this district as Giffords.
3. AZ-09 (Sinema) – R+1 – Sinema a bit of a wild card, but I like her.
4. CA-07 (Bera) – R+3 – Should be a decent chance to hold Dem-trending seat.
5. CA-36 (Ruiz) – R+3 – Another Dem-trending CA seat.
6. FL-18 (Murphy) – R+1 – West will be back and will be tough to beat in a mid-term.
7. FL-26 (Garcia) – R+4 – Very difficult territory in a FL mid-term.
8. NC-07 (McIntyre) – R+11 – Amazing win for McIntyre given vicious gerrymander.
9. NH-01 (Shea-Porter) – EVEN – Political whims of NH can shift wildly.
10. NY-18 (Maloney) – R+2 – Biggest surprise winner for Democrats (to me).
11. NY-21 (Owens) – R+2 – Owens squeaked by, but reached 50% for the first time.
12. TX-23 (Gallego) – R+5 – Latino-dominated district much tougher in mid-terms.

Lean D

1. CA-26 (Brownley) – D+2 - Winning the open seat was the tough part here.
2. CA-52 (Peters) – D+1 – Impressive win over longstanding incumbent Bilbray.
3. CT-05 (Esty) – D+2 – Chris Murphy held this one pretty easily.  
4. GA-12 (Barrow) – R+9 – Barrow’s last three elections have been dominating.
5. IL-12 (Enyart) – D+2 – Enyart came in on short notice and rocked Plummer’s world.
6. NH-02 (Kuster) – D+3 – Energetic candidate should hold this seat.
7. MN-08 (Nolan) – D+3 – Really impressive win over incumbent Cravaack.
8. NV-04 (Horsford) – D+2 – Midterm turnout could make for a closer race.
9. NY-01 (Bishop) – EVEN – Two close elections in a row for Bishop.
10. NY-24 (Maffei) – D+4 – Maffei’s results have not been particularly impressive.
11. UT-04 (Matheson) – R+14 – Matheson survived the worst he could possibly face.
12. WA-01 (DelBene) – D+3 – Self-funder DelBene should be in pretty good shape.
13. WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6 – Rahall won easily with little outside help.

Likely D

1. CA-03 (Garamendi) – D+1 – Garamendi ended up closer than targeted CA Dems.
2. CA-09 (McNerney) – D+2 – Double-digit win in GOP targeted district.
3. CA-16 (Costa) – D+2 – Costa survived 2010 pretty comfortably.
4. CA-24 (Capps) – D+3 – Another double-digit win in GOP targeted district.
5. CA-41 (Takano) – D+3 – Takano proved skeptics wrong with blowout win.
6. CA-47 (Lowenthal) – D+5 – Solid double digit open-seat win.
7. CO-07 (Perlmutter) – D+3 – Perlmutter owns this district.
8. FL-22 (Frankel) – D+5 – Commanding win over very well-funded opponent.
9. HI-01 (Hanabusa) – D+11 – Hanabusa ran WAY behind Obama.
10. IA-01 (Braley) – D+5 – Braley survived 2010 wave and came on strong in 2012.
11. IA-02 (Loebsack) – D+4 – Ditto for Loebsack.
12. IL-08 (Duckworth) – D+6 – Thought Duckworth would beat Walsh by more.
13. IL-10 (Schneider) – D+8 – Should get a lot easier after squeaking by Dold.
14. IL-11 (Foster) – D+5 – Wow did he beat Biggert by a lot.
15. IL-17 (Bustos) – D+6 – Surprising margin of victory in race that looked uphill.
16. MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7 – Can’t imagine Tierney having a worse cycle than this one.
17. MD-06 (Delaney) – D+2 – Blew out incumbent Bartlett by 21%.
18. ME-02 (Michaud) – D+2 – Pretty routine victory over non-trivial opponent.
19. MN-01 (Walz) – R+1 – Walz survived 2010 wave with room to spare.
20. MN-07 (Peterson) – R+5 – Peterson very well entrenched in this district.
21. NM-01 (Lujan Grisham) – D+5 – Dominating open seat win for Lujan Grisham.
22. NY-03 (Israel) – D+3 – Israel has a pretty tough district and did not overwhelm.
23. NY-25 (Slaughter) – D+5 – Hard to imagine GOP cooking up a better challenge than it did.
24. OR-04 (DeFazio) – D+2 – DeFazio safe as long as Art Robinson is his opponent.
25. OR-05 (Schrader) – EVEN – Tough district, but got a free pass in 2012.
26. RI-01 (Cicilline) – D+14 – Like Tierney, nowhere to go but up for Cicilline.
27. WA-06 (Kilmer) – D+5 – Dominating open seat win for Kilmer.
28. WA-10 (Heck) – D+4 – Same for Heck.  Should hold this easily.

REPUBLICAN SEATS

Tossup

1. CA-31 (Miller) – D+2 – Fluke win for Miller, who is too conservative for this district.
2. IL-13 (Davis) – D+1 – DCCC failure to immediately accept Gill hurt here.
3. MI-11 (Bentivolio) – R+4 – I will ask Santa Claus for GOP to re-nominate Bentivolio.

Lean R

1. CO-06 (Coffman) – R+1 – Dems can probably do better than Miklosi here.
2. NV-03 (Heck) – EVEN – Same is true of Oceguera, who was a disappointing candidate.
3. NY-19 (Gibson) – EVEN – Pretty impressive win for Gibson in tough district.

Likely R

1. AR-01 (Crawford) – R+7 – AR districts trending the wrong way to say the least.
2. AR-02 (Griffin) – R+5 – We have a shot at this one if Griffin runs for Senate.
3. CA-10 (Denham) – R+5 – Surprisingly strong victory for Denham.
4. CA-21 (Valadao) – R+3 – Will be interesting to see what a stronger Dem can do here.
5. CA-25 (McKeon) – R+5 – McKeon cannot like the way this district is trending.
6. CA-49 (Issa) – R+5 – Would love to see Dems take a run at this clown.
7. CO-03 (Tipton) – R+4 – Commanding victory over strong recruit.
8. FL-02 (Southerland) – R+3 – Will be next to impossible to pick up in a mid-term.
9. FL-06 (DeSantis) – R+6 – Surprisingly strong performance for Dem Beaven here.
10. FL-07 (Mica) – R+5 – Underwhelming win over a “some dude” in 2012.
11. FL-10 (Webster) – R+7 – Demings ran strong here, but district is too tough.
12. FL-13 (Young) – R+1 – We won’t get this one until Young retires.
13. FL-16 (Buchanan) – R+5 – Maybe if Buchanan’s ethical chickens finally come home to roost.
14. IA-03 (Latham) – R+1 – Really dominating win over Boswell.
15. IA-04 (King) – R+4 – Best run we could make at King came well short.
16. IL-06 (Roskam) – R+5 – GOP district a huge long-shot for Dems.
17. IL-14 (Hultgren) – R+6 – Same for this one.
18. IN-02 (Walorski) – R+7 – Closeness of open seat race surprised both parties.
19. IN-08 (Bucshon) – R+8 – Double-digit win over pretty good recruit.
20. IN-09 (Young) – R+9 – Shelli Yoder made a decent run at this.
21. KY-06 (Barr) – R+7 – I still do not understand how Chandler lost in 2012, but not 2010.
22. MI-01 (Benishek) – R+4 – Strong run at this guy came up just a hair short.
23. MI-03 (Amash) – R+5 – Amash is unorthodox, but got the job done.
24. MI-06 (Upton) – R+1 – O’Brien ran pretty strong against Upton.
25. MI-07 (Walberg) – R+3 – Walberg held to 10 point win against a some dude.
26. MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2 – Not an overwhelming district, but Rogers pretty entrenched.
27. MN-02 (Kline) – R+2 – Republicans should keep this as long as Kline is around.
28. MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+2 – Paulsen may leave this vulnerable if he runs for Senate.
29. MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+8 – Heartbreaking that Graves came so close.
30. MT-AL (Daines) – R+7 – Double-digit open seat win for Daines.
31. NC-08 (Hudson) – R+11 – Should be an easy GOP hold after knocking off Kissell.
32. NC-09 (Pittenger) – R+10 – Shockingly close open seat race should become easy hold.
33. NC-13 (Holding) – R+9 – Frustrating recruiting failure in not THAT red a district.
34. ND-AL (Cramer) – R+10 – Strong double-digit open seat win for Cramer.
35. NE-02 (Terry) – R+6 – Ewing came close, but we won’t get this one in a mid-term.
36. NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – EVEN – LoBiondo solid in tough district.
37. NJ-03 (Runyan) – R+2 – Had hoped Adler would give Runyan a tougher run.
38. NJ-05 (Garrett) – R+4 – Garrett only won by 14% against unfunded candidate.
39. NJ-07 (Lance) – R+6 – Lance easily dispatched well-funded opponent.
40. NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) – R+5 – Frelinghuysen a little underwhelming in GOP district.
41. NM-02 (Pearce) – R+6 – Dems held this seat not long ago.
42. NY-02 (King) – EVEN – Would love to see a stronger Dem take a run at this jackass.
43. NY-11 (Grimm) – R+4 – Pretty safe unless more comes of Grimm’s ethical problems.
44. NY-23 (Reed) – R+3 – Impressive performance by Shinagawa will be tough to repeat.
45. NY-27 (Collins) – R+7 – Collins should entrench in very red district.
46. OH-06 (Johnson) – R+5 – Hard to do better than Wilson in reddening area.
47. OH-07 (Gibbs) – R+5 – Would like to see a stronger candidate take a run at this.
48. OH-14 (Joyce) – R+3 – Got a lucky free pass for the open seat.
49. OH-16 (Renacci) – R+5 – Sutton ran a good race but the district was too red.
50. PA-03 (Kelly) – R+5 – Second tier Dem candidate kept this within reason.
51. PA-06 (Gerlach) – R+1 – Dems were ripped to shreds in the Philly suburbs.
52. PA-07 (Meehan) – EVEN – Particularly George Badey, who was pasted by 19%.
53. PA-08 (Fitzpatrick) – D+1 – And Kathy Boockvar fared little better.
54. PA-11 (Barletta) – R+6 – Not an overwhelming win in a pretty GOP district.
55. PA-12 (Rothfus) – R+6 – Might be competitive if Altmire makes a run at it.
56. PA-15 (Dent) – R+2 – Surprised Dent didn’t win by more over underfunded candidate.
57. PA-16 (Pitts) – R+6 – Redistricted bluer, but not blue enough.
58. SC-05 (Mulvaney) – R+9 – Mulvaney won by only 12 against some dude(tte).
59. SC-07 (Rice) – R+7 – Tinubu kept this within reason.
60. SD-AL (Noem) – R+9 – Very impressive win over non-trivial candidate.
61. TX-14 (Weber) – R+8 – We can’t do better than Nick Lampson here.
62. VA-01 (Wittman) – R+8 – Not an overwhelming win over Adam Cook.
63. VA-02 (Rigell) – R+5 – Strong win in district where Obama performed well.
64. VA-04 (Forbes) – R+6 – Underwhelming win over second tier candidate.
65. VA-05 (Hurt) – R+6 – Pretty solid win over pretty well-funded candidate.
66. WA-03 (Herrera Beutler) – R+2 – Got a pass in 2012 in a pretty tough district.
67. WA-08 (Reichert) – R+2 – Ditto.  Would like to see these targeted at some point.
68. WI-01 (Ryan) – R+3 – Very impressive performance by Rob Zerban here.
69. WI-07 (Duffy) – EVEN – Northern Wisconsin not trending well for Democrats.
70. WI-08 (Ribble) – R+2 – Same as WI-07.  Did not look good at all.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (21+ / 0-)

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 08:13:23 AM PST

  •  An "A" for an exhausing effort. (11+ / 0-)

    "There's a lot to be said for making people laugh. Did you know that that's all some people have? It isn't much, but it's better than nothing in this cockeyed caravan." --Joel McCrea as "Sully," in "Sullivan's Travels."

    by Wildthumb on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 08:16:23 AM PST

  •  Interesting analysis. Won't be polling for a long (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, MichaelNY

    time, and the Tea-Party effect may enter into it.

    Depends what remains of the Republican rush for ever-increasing purity.

    I just want to see Lindsey Graham get whacked from the Right.

    Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
    I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
    —Spike Milligan

    by polecat on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 08:31:04 AM PST

    •  Graham will be challenged strongly ... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, DownstateDemocrat, JBraden

      from the right.  Dems need a strong credible candidate in case he loses the primary runoff, which he definitely could.  There will also be a brutal GOP battle for Governor. Haley is in free fall.  Do NOT believe the national media hype. It is total BS.  Her numbers are terrible and even the Tea Party is pissed at her.  She will have a very, very hard time getting re-elected. Expect major battle for renomination and if she should get past that, a loss in the general.  

      •  Yes, I agree on SC (0+ / 0-)

        It's important for the Democrats to have a credible candidate, but I think whomever defeats Graham from the right is likely to win the general election.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:44:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Vincent Sheheen (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          may have a better shot at this than the Gov race.  Would he be our best candidate?

          (Try not to think of the resemblance to John Edwards)

          VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

          by psychicpanda on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 06:24:12 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, he probably would. (0+ / 0-)

            But I'd give him no more than a 15% chance of winning the race.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 06:29:03 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  But look how close he came to taking out Haley (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, sacman701

              I know she wasn't the best candidate, but 2010 was the absolute worst year for Democrats in modern history and he came closer than any other Democrat to winning South Carolina since Jim Hodges won back in the '90s.  I don't follow SC politics closely but there must be SOMETHING right with him.

              Graham is a goner.  If the tea party is going to take out an incumbent anywhere in the country in 2014, it's going to be in South Carolina.  Hell, Jim DeMint may even back a Graham challenge.  And there's already a whisper campaign in South Carolina that Graham is gay; if that really gets around it will be a disaster for Republicans.  I can already see a teabagger making that an issue in the campaign.  But it makes them look doubly bad.

              Let's wait and see.  Although I don't think we have very good pickup potential at all in 2014, I think SC may be a better shot than KY, GA, or ME.

              VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

              by psychicpanda on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 12:07:49 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  DeMint is obsessed (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sacman701

                I do think he'll support an extremist primary candidate against Graham. But consider the fact that he represents SC before you think it's likely that whoever he supports would lose a general election.

                It's likely that part of the general election opposition to Haley was because she is not merely extremist but an associate of a governor who was always at loggerheads with the state legislature, and part of it was racism. So maybe if a teabagger of color runs in the general election, Sheheen - should he run, which I doubt - might win. I have a feeling Sheheen would be more interested in running for Governor again.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 08:41:44 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

  •  Honestly, I think WI-Gov is lean R (3+ / 0-)

    unless another shoe drops in the investigation.

    •  I struggles with that one (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

      but decided to divorce the recall from the 2014 general.  It is a D+ state and Walker is too conservative for it.  We don't know how many anti-recall voters there were, and Barrett was not an ideal candidate.  Walker successfully attacked his tenure as Milwaukee mayor.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 08:38:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Walker's approvals are sitting in the low 50s (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

        And I doubt we'll get a very strong candidate.

        •  The Isthmus published this piece... (0+ / 0-)

          Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

          by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 04:11:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  My thoughts (0+ / 0-)

            With government in Wisconsin under solid Republican control (although the state elected Democrats for President & US Senate and Democratic Assembly candidates received more votes than Republican candidates) and the lack of any recall elections in the next two years, the prospects for the 2014 gubernatorial election are now in the Republicans hands.  Basically, how many independents are they going to mess with?  The more extreme they go, the more likely there is to be a backlash for them in 2014.  Perhaps the message of "balanced government" needs to be the theme for the next two years in the state.

            The other side of the coin is who will lead the Democratic party in Wisconsin in the public eye.  Who will be willing to take Scottie on?  I have my own personal bias toward Senator Kathleen Vinehout, but who else is out there?  I am 100% certain we cannot look at Barrett or Falk or even Feingold here.  A new generation of leadership is needed.

            While I would love to see Walker lose in 2014, I am not optimistic here.  2018 is key for Governor, due to redistricting to occur in 2021.  It will be a tough decade regardless.

            Citizen from WI-07 (Marathon County)

            by CentralWIGuy on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:01:28 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  As are NJ-Gov and MI-Gov (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Those are bluer states, but less controversial governors. MI-Gov, however, would be Tossup or even Lean D if Snyder gets teabagged or decides not to run.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

      by fearlessfred14 on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 11:29:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's a bridge too far. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Those are too blue for me to call leaners, and Snyder is not very popular.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 12:05:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

      I realize a recall election is not the same as a gubernatorial, but weren't his margins the same in both elections?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 04:02:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  For Oregon, pretty much. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, ArkDem14, GoUBears, MichaelNY

    We went another year without Republicans winning a single statewide office, cleaned out some of their legislative bench, too.  Last time Kitzhaber ran for re-election he won all but one county.  Merkley has a greaater likelihood of being vulnerable, and seeing a potentially strong Republican challenger, but the strongest candidates they have are probably not strong enough to win a statewide election.  One of them, Bruce Starr, gave it a shot this year, and came up empty handed.  And if he ran against Merkley he'd have to give up his state senate seat.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 08:37:26 AM PST

  •  Very insightful, but I see nothing for IL-16. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BENAWU

    Are you prognosticating we won't exist anymore?  Tell me, I can take it.  Was it locusts?  Emerald Ash Borers?  Drought?  Hoards of zombie Reagans?   ;-)

    "Four more years!" (Obama Unencumbered - The Sequel)

    by jwinIL14 on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 08:40:25 AM PST

  •  You can bank on this (0+ / 0-)

    Millions of Democrats across the nation will sit on their asses for the midterm, as they always do. They'll have the same litany of excuses for not voting, all of them lame as aways.

    At the same time, the Obama 2012 campaign effort will have been shuttered for good, with comparatively few of its resources made available to Congressional Dems across the country. The DNC will do its part by not mustering even a shadow of the political efforts in 2014 that it does during Presidential years.

    The result will be GOP gains in the House and Senate, as well as in statehouse and gubernatorial elections.

    •  That's completely absurd (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GoUBears, CF of Aus, MichaelNY, JBraden

      OFA will transfer over to the DNC as good as it can, and all the national resources will be redirected to GOTV and downballot races now that Obama is no longer running for reelection.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 10:09:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I still don't get this defeatism about mid-terms (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, JBraden

      it's becoming a common thing to say that Democrats now have a built-in disadvantage during mid-term elections, compared to our relative advantage in presidential years.  Again, this is a correlation that has never existed in America before, unless you only look at 2008, 2010, and 2012.  But go back just a couple cycles earlier, and you have 2004 versus 2006.  2002 also wasn't much worse for Dems than 2000 was.  And we picked up seats in 1998.

      So I think it's way too early to start believing that mid-terms are simply stacked against Democrats.  Now, there IS a strong historical correlation to the president's party losing seats in mid-terms, although two of the very few times that trend has broken have been relatively recently in 1998 and 2002.  So even that trend may be weakening.

      •  Well said. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        It wouldn't surprise me if the default position was a worse turnout for our voters, but instead of simply insisting that this is an insurmountable problem, why not work to change it?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 08:03:51 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Millions of Republicans and independents (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      will sit out the midterm election, too. Don't you understand that?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 04:04:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  house races (5+ / 0-)

    I did my own ratings yesterday, and if the situation in 2014 is what I think it will be (economy somewhat better, Obama approval in the low-mid 50s) my first guess is that the results will be somewhere between Dems +1 and GOP +1 barring retirements.

    CA31: lean D. With a serious effort in a vote by mail state, Dems should be able to pick this up even in a midterm.

    NC7: tossup. McIntyre has a chance to entrench himself with the 36% of the district that was new to him in 2012, and while black turnout should be down a lot of casual GOP voters will likely stay home as well.

    FL18: tossup. I suspect that Murphy squeaked it out mostly because he isn't West. He might have a hard time against a non-berserker.

    Every other seat I think at least leans toward the incumbent, except AZ2 which I have tilt D if McSally runs again. On you other tossups...

    AZ1: Kirkpatrick did well in the old redder AZ1 even in the 2010 red wave, and her margin (AZ is even worse than CA when it comes to counting votes) is up to 3.6% and rising.

    AZ9: has been trending blue for a long time, Sinema is now up 3.3% and has a history of growing on people.

    CA7: very similar to AZ9, diversifying older suburbs. Keeping turnout up is easier in a vote by mail state.

    CA36: Ruiz' margin is up to 3.8%. Probably more prone to midterm dropoff than CA7, but again it's easier to convince people to go to the mailbox than to stand in line.

    FL26: this one is very interesting. Rivera was damaged goods, but the Cuban vote indeed seems to be trending Dem.

    NH1: CSP won by 3.7, and should be ok absent a red wave.

    NY18: seems to be trending blue, and Maloney starts with a 3.4 point cushion.

    NY21: With two more years to entrench I think Owens starts out as the favorite. Also seems likely to trend blue.

    TX23: Will be tough to keep turnout up, but Gallego starts with a 4.8 point cushion.

    IL13: Davis has some time to dig in, and turnout in Champaign (the district's only blue county) will likely be down in a midterm.

    MI11: I think this goes to lean R if Bentivolio gets primaried as I expect. If not, prime pickup opporunity. I think this district will flip in 2016 or 2020 due to population shifts from MI14.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 09:32:41 AM PST

  •  GOP in North Carolina (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, ArkDem14, GoUBears

    dont have a deep bench like the Dems have in that state. And plus we have to wait and see how McCrory's and the GOP general assembly number's will be. Which I predict will be in the shitter.

    I think ArkDem14 said it best about a high chance of a primary being sabotage by a a Teaparty Republican in Louisiana and North Carolina.

    As of right now I'll say the North Carolina race is a Toss-Up/Tilt D

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 09:52:04 AM PST

    •  Don't they have plenty of state senators and Reps? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      or are they all unelectable for various reasons?

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

      by fearlessfred14 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 12:31:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hagan (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, MichaelNY

        NC is only about R+3 and still trending blue, and isn't ancestrally red. It takes more than just "nontoxic" to beat an incumbent Dem with decent approvals.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 07:51:19 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Also well said. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Hagan certainly can't coast unless her opponent is an even less composed Virginia Foxx. However, she has all of the advantages that Obama had, plus more. The only thing I worry about is turnout, but that's a problem we can adjust to. She'll probably have to fight to earn another term, yet it should be a fight we can fairly easily win.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 08:06:47 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks for this! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem

    Will be interesting to re-visit the lay of the land next fall after the fiscal package, immigration (hopefully) and another year of recovery.  A LOT can happen in two years (see 2004--2006, 2008--2010).

  •  california's not done counting (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FG, condorcet, MichaelNY

    and dem vote totals are still climbing in several districts. garamendi's currently at 53.7-46.3 and rising, my guess is he'll end up just under 55-45 by the time yolo and solano are done counting.

    i think CA house candidates might overperform in 2014, for several reasons. brown and a bunch of other statewide dems will be on the ballot driving up turnout, the state GOP has noone compelling left to run for any high office, democrats now have a sense of how to game the top two primary, same day registration will boost young/minority/unlikely voter GOTV, a legalization initiative will probably be on the ballot if the state leg hasn't already passed it, a long-depressed state economy should finally be booming again, and two more years of young latino voters will have aged into the electorate in every one of those close districts.

    i'm also not as positive that dems are hopeless in KY, NC and GA in 2014. GA and SC have been creeping our way under the radar, and if OfA's 2012's voter reg drive in NC is followed through on with another big drive, we may do better than expected there as well. a lot rides on how the electorate responds to economic recovery (do they reelect all incumbents, or do they reward the president's party?) as well as whether house republicans decide to show their asses and stand in the doorway to decent legislation for another two years, or whether they back off and moderate a bit.

    2014 won't be another 2010, IMO.

  •  Few notes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Israel did quite admirably imo, seeings as he and King switched half of their constituents; I'm happy with a 16 point margin.

    Latham won by the margin he did (almost exactly the same as King's) because of Boswell, not in spite of him.

    ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

    by GoUBears on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 12:10:01 PM PST

    •  Israel will be fine (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, GoUBears

      but I am not blown away by the margin against second tier competition.

      Latham had been dominant in his old district and easily defeated an incumbent mostly on the incumbent's home turf.  I will grant you Boswell is not that impressive, but Latham is.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 12:22:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  But if Israel is vulnerable, why isn't King? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Bishop's probably the most vulnerable, but he won by a not particularly tiny, though still small, margin, despite all of the relentless thrashing that he took on the airwaves. He should probably be fine.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 08:09:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Good to see a diary from you! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, MichaelNY

    I am not sold on some of your governors ratings, but it is of course pretty early.

    Ithink Brown if he ran would by formidable in MA given their history of electing GOP governors.

    I think Walker has earned Lean R unfortunately, despite him likely having an inflated margin last time due to some anti recall voters.

    For Kansas I wonder if one of the moderate Rs would run against Brownback, oor whether they have given up entirely.

    doesn't look like too many good house seat chances for us... we should be ensuring that CA-31 and NV-03 are targeted as soon as possible.

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

    by CF of Aus on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 01:42:06 PM PST

  •  Who's Jake? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
    •  Jake Gittes (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Samara Morgan Dem, Audrid

      Private detective from the movie Chinatown.  Tag line is: "Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown." Meaning he should just accept all the messed up stuff that goes on there.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 04:39:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  What happens in Chinatown other than good food? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY
        •  Gang warfare and a lot of other stuff (0+ / 0-)

          It's actually a pretty fun movie. It's been a long time since I saw it, but I'm pretty sure I remember correctly that it takes place in San Francisco's Chinatown in the 70s or possibly late 60s.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 12:34:51 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Okay... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            maybe you're being ironic, but Chinatown takes place in the 30's in Los Angeles, and has to do with the building of the Los Angeles aqueduct to bring water from the Owens Valley to the Los Angeles basin, and corruption in the buying of land in the San Fernando valley that will be newly valuable once water is available to support a larger population.

            And if you were being ironic and really know all of this I apologize.

  •  About that Senate... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, MichaelNY

    My wild ass estimates of our % chance of losing these seats:

    AK - 50
    AR - 30
    LA - 40
    MT - 50
    NC - 30
    SD - 70
    WV - 60
    CO - 20
    IA - 20
    MN - 20
    NH - 30
    MI - 20
    OR - 20
    VA - 20

    And maybe we have, I don't know, a 20% chance of picking up one seat (most likely Maine if Collins retires or is teabagged or something).

    Add it up and it looks like I'm predicting a loss of... 4.6 seats. But if the republicans have any sort of tailwind I could easily see them getting a 7-9 seat gain.

    I'll be happy with 5 or fewer...

    •  odds (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think your odds make sense (although I would put AK at 30 or 40), but the races aren't independent of each other. Typically most of the contested races break for one party or the other. I think it would take a very bad environment for Dems to put most of the races you have at 30 or lower into real danger.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 04:43:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Some of your odds seem too pessimistic (0+ / 0-)

      although they're not unreasonable. For example, I don't give Republicans a 20% chance of winning in OR (maybe 10%), and unless Moore Capito runs for an open seat, I don't give them even odds, still less a 60% chance to win in WV.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:48:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Of course it's very early to do this (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem

    But this is a very well-done diary and good to do as a baseline, subject to many types of change.

    Some comments:

    The appropriate rating of Begich's race is highly dependent on who his opponent is. If it's Miller, rate the race Likely D. If it's Parnell, Likely R.

    In MT, would it be better or worse for the Democrats if the somewhat unpopular Baucus retires? Who are likely candidates for the Democrats, in that situation?

    Also, I'd rate SD-Sen Lean R at this stage.

    VA-Sen - isn't there a likelihood Warner may run for Governor? If he vacates that seat, I'd start off with a Tossup rating, just because we don't know who'd run from either side.

    CO-Sen - Why are you so comfortable calling that Lean D this far ahead of the election, rather than being more cautious and calling it Tossup/Tilt D?

    And one Republican seat: Chambliss isn't that popular, so this far out, I'd rate his seat Likely R, but I agree that it's quite unlikely to be won by a Democrat.

    On governors:

    CT (Malloy) should be Lean D, given his only slight popularity. The Republican will be all anti-tax all the time. I don't expect a Republican to win - especially if it's McMahon - but stranger things have happened.

    I'd rate NJ (Christie) Lean R, as things stand, and I'd definitely rate WI (Walker) Lean R.

    Comment on the House:

    DEMOCRATIC SEATS

    Tossup

    2. AZ-02 (Barber) – R+2 – Barber doesn’t seem as solid in this district as Giffords.

    Ergo: Tossup/Tilt R.
    6. FL-18 (Murphy) – R+1 – West will be back and will be tough to beat in a mid-term.
    If it's someone other than West, Tossup/Tilt R. If it's West, Tossup/Tilt D, as things stand.
    9. NH-01 (Shea-Porter) – EVEN – Political whims of NH can shift wildly.
    She actually raised funds well this time, so maybe I shouldn't rate this Lean R. I accept your rating.
    9. NY-01 (Bishop) – EVEN – Two close elections in a row for Bishop.
    Ergo, Tossup/Tilt D.
    10. NY-24 (Maffei) – D+4 – Maffei’s results have not been particularly impressive.
    Ditto.
    11. UT-04 (Matheson) – R+14 – Matheson survived the worst he could possibly face.
    I'd still rate this Tossup/Tilt D. He'll always be facing a headwind.
    13. WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6 – Rahall won easily with little outside help.
    Tossup. WV is trending R, hard.
    9. HI-01 (Hanabusa) – D+11 – Hanabusa ran WAY behind Obama.
    Yes, that was surprising, but I agree with your Likely D rating.
    13. IL-10 (Schneider) – D+8 – Should get a lot easier after squeaking by Dold.
    Very close election in a district that habitually elected moderate Republicans before redistricting. Lean D.
    16. MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7 – Can’t imagine Tierney having a worse cycle than this one.
    I can. He won't have Obama's coattails in 2014. But is that a Gubernatorial election year?
    26. RI-01 (Cicilline) – D+14 – Like Tierney, nowhere to go but up for Cicilline.
    Ditto to what I said about Tierney. I'd watch this one carefully. I hope Cicilline retires.
    Likely R

    1. AR-01 (Crawford) – R+7 – AR districts trending the wrong way to say the least.
    2. AR-02 (Griffin) – R+5 – We have a shot at this one if Griffin runs for Senate.

    I think both these districts are close to Safe R now. I agree with your CA-10, 21, 25, and 49 ratings. Someone more moderate than Tetalman would have to run in CA-49 to have a chance.
    8. FL-02 (Southerland) – R+3 – Will be next to impossible to pick up in a mid-term.
    You think? Including if Bembry runs against him?
    18. IN-02 (Walorski) – R+7 – Closeness of open seat race surprised both parties.
    I think this race starts at Lean R.
    22. MI-01 (Benishek) – R+4 – Strong run at this guy came up just a hair short.
    Also Lean R.
    23. MI-03 (Amash) – R+5 – Amash is unorthodox, but got the job done.
    Lean R with the right candidate and sufficient funding.
    35. NE-02 (Terry) – R+6 – Ewing came close, but we won’t get this one in a mid-term.
    Probably not, but it's one of the seemingly best incumbent Republican targets. Ewing should run again, with plenty of DCCC funding.
    36. NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – EVEN – LoBiondo solid in tough district.
    Could be a tossup if LoBiondo retires. As long as he runs, he wins.
    42. NY-02 (King) – EVEN – Would love to see a stronger Dem take a run at this jackass.
    Agreed, and we agree on the rating. If he were to retire, I think this seat would start at Lean R.
    44. NY-23 (Reed) – R+3 – Impressive performance by Shinagawa will be tough to repeat.
    Why? He should get funding. I'd rate this Lean R.
    45. NY-27 (Collins) – R+7 – Collins should entrench in very red district.
    Probably, but this is New York. The only Republican districts that I think are unattainable are Hanna's, as long as he's running on the Republican line, and probably King's, again as long as he's running. This one and the one centered around Staten Island are long shots, but they're all possible and worth going after.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:12:25 PM PST

    •  Warner (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      supposedly gave the green light to McCauliffe to run for Governor, so the thinking is he won't run for Governor.

      MA will have both a Senate and Governor race.  

      Pessimism in NY-23 and FL-02 based on lack of presidential turnout.  I think both were close because of strong turnout in very liberal areas.  But Reed wasn't impressive in 2010 either.  Southerland was.

      Thanks for great feedback.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:23:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're welcome (0+ / 0-)

        Thanks for the great diary!

        In a gubernatorial year, rate Tierney Lean D. I still think Cicilline is a trouble spot, though, and would be cautious and rate him Tossup/Tilt D in a non-gubernatorial year (assuming that there is no such election in RI in 2014).

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:53:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Good write-up but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I disagree with some of your prognostications that Dem seats in Red states will be tougher to hold in a mid-term.  I think they'd be easier to hold, since they aren't running on the same ticket as Obama.  NC-Sen, NC-07, FL-02, KY-Sen are all examples.  I would agree KY-Sen is a long shot but it would certainly be easier to defeat McConnell in a mid-term than a Presidential year.

    VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

    by psychicpanda on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 06:33:11 PM PST

    •  Your take is interesting (0+ / 0-)

      But NC and FL are not red states; they are purple states. The districts you are talking about are both red, but NC-Sen is not. The state's Republican lean is slight and decreasing.

      We will have to see what percentage of the 2014 electorate is relatively poor, black, Hispanic, young, female, Asian, Native American, etc. These are the demographics that tend to vote Democratic, and turnout can be a problem in midterm elections, generally.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 06:45:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-Gov and VA-Gov in 2013, not 2014 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I don't really like our chances at the moment in NJ, but we'll see.

    I am surprised that you (and everyone else for that matter) are so negative about GA-Sen. we did force a runoff last time, after all. I would personally rank it as Likely R right now but we kind of have to scrape the bottom of the barrel out of necessity.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 12:47:20 AM PST

    •  Took Chambliss to a runoff (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      with great presidential year African American turnout.  Different in a mid-term.  I give us little or no shot.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 03:50:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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