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Leading Off:

VA-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with their first post-election day look at the 2013 Virginia governor's race, which still has yet to fully take shape. They test two Democrats, 2009 candidate Terry McAuliffe (who has more-or-less announced) and Sen. Mark Warner (who doesn't seem inclined to seek his old job back), and two Republicans, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (the establishment pick) and AG Ken Cuccinelli (the movement conservative firebrand), who have both been actively seeking the job for quite some time.

Warner is very popular (58-20 favorables) and crushes both GOPers: Bolling 53-33 and Cuccinelli 52-34. McAuliffe, despite his earlier run, is barely known (17-13 faves), edging Bolling just 38-36 and Cuccinelli 41-37. While Cuccinelli has higher name recognition (29-24 faves) than Bolling (20-8), he's way more polarizing, with 41 percent of Democrats expressing an unfavorable view of him versus just 12 percent for Bolling. I think Dems have to hope the GOP nominates Cuccinelli for that reason. Quinnipiac apparently didn't test the Republican primary this time, but their June poll showed him with a crushing (albeit very early) 51-15 lead over Bolling.


GA-Sen: We don't ever get too deep into the weeds in terms of the jockeying over congressional leadership posts—after all, this is an elections site. But one contest may actually have an impact on the campaign trail. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05) just beat out Rep. Tom Price (GA-06) for the job of House Republican Conference chair, succeeding Rep. Jeb Hensarling (TX-05) for the fourth-ranking House GOP post. (Hensarling will become chair of the Financial Services Committee. One other interesting side-note is that McMorris Rodgers was the favorite of John Boehner, while Paul Ryan supported Price.)

So what the heck does this have to do with the Senate race in Georgia in 2014? Well, the other week, we referenced a report by local analyst Jim Galloway that suggested Price might be interested in a primary challenge to Sen. Saxby Chambliss. One factor to consider, said Galloway, was how Price fared in his leadership bid. Given his loss to McMorris Rodgers, and the fact that he may have plateaued out for however long John Boehner is Speaker, a Senate bid might look more tempting now.

ME-Sen: No surprise: Independent Angus King is gonna dance with the ones what brung him. King will caucus with Democrats in the Senate is supporting Harry Reid as majority leader. Given that the NRSC ran ads against him, and given that (despite his protestations that he's too good for party politics) his ideology leans left, any other result would have been pretty stunning. Except, well, to John McCain, who called King's decision "shocking and startling news." (That just demonstrates how out-of-the-loop McCain is, though, since Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell didn't even reach out to Angus.) King's move cements the Democrat's 55-45 advantage in the chamber.

OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown's campaign has put together a final tally of all the spending directed against them by conservative interests, and it really is pretty mind-boggling: In all, right-wing groups blew $40 million on the race, with $31 million going to radio and TV ads, $7 million in mail and billboards, and another $2 million for polling and various production costs. And despite all that, Brown still defeated Republican Josh Mandel by five points.


PA-Gov: Pennsylvania Democrats sound eager to take on first-term GOP Gov. Tom Corbett in 2014, particularly given Corbett's weak approval ratings and unhappiness over his education cuts. So of course the Great Mentioner is kicking into high gear, and here's one early list of possibles from the Morning Call: Sen. Bob Casey (who just won re-election), Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro, state Treasurer Rob McCord, Tom Wolf (a former official in ex-Gov. Ed Rendell's administration), Philadelphia mayoral candidate and rich guy Tom Knox, and Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski. No one's quoted on the record, but in a separate piece in the York Daily Record, Wolf says he's considering it.

Also of note: Waste disposal company owner Scott Wagner says he's weighing a primary challenge to Corbett. It's not clear how rich Wagner is (his company website says it employs 300 people), but he'd need some considerable personal wealth to even have a prayer. But even if he does, I can't really think of too many governors knocks off in their own primaries by rich businessmen.


AZ-02: Looks like Dem Rep. Ron Barber's lead over Martha McSally is now up to 943 votes as of late Wednesday. Earlier in the day, Barber had nosed down to a 654-vote edge after being up 829 on Tuesday.

CA-52: Another day, another increase in Democrat Scott Peters' lead. San Diego County's Wednesday evening update put incumbent GOPer Brian Bilbray 2,948 votes behind Peters, 288 further behind than he was on Tuesday (which in turn was another 761 further behind than the day before that). The story is getting old at this point: Fewer ballots are left and Peters is doing better and better. It looks like Bilbray's in pretty bad shape at this point.

FL-18: GOP Rep. Allen West has now apparently filed another lawsuit, this time to demand a full recount of all early ballots in St. Lucie County. (If you've been following this whole overtime saga, you know that St. Lucie conducted a partial "retabulation" of three days' worth of early votes.) If this whole "Florida congressman" thing doesn't work out, though, West now has a standing invitation from the chair of... the Georgia Republican Party to move back to his home state and run for office there some day. But exactly which incumbent Georgia congressmember does she want West to run against in the primary?

This is also pretty hilarious. Patrick Murphy, of course, is attending freshman orientation on Capitol Hill this week—something candidates in uncalled races are invited to do. (Hell, even NC-07's David Rouzer, who trails by 420 votes, is in attendance.) But West is even grousing about this!

"I think it is premature of him," Tim Edson, West's campaign manager, said on a conference call Wednesday. "I understand he would like to move on and wrap this up, but for someone who claims to be certified public accountant, you would expect him to be a little more concerned about the shifting numbers and the inaccuracies of these numbers."
PA-12: Relying on preliminary precinct-level results, Keegan Gibson at PoliticsPA has an interesting look at Dem Rep. Mark Critz's loss in the hotly contested race in PA-12. All things considered, Critz did quite well, falling to Republican Keith Rothfus by only a 3.6 percent margin. Of course, a loss is a loss, but Gibson calculates that Romney beat Obama by a hefty 59-42 spread. That's almost twice as wide as McCain's 54-45 victory in 2008, which shows you just what a brutal headwind Critz was facing.

Other Races:

NY-St. Sen: Well, lovely. Newly-elected "Democratic" state Sen. Simcha Felder has, as expected, decide to caucus with Republicans in the state Senate, even though Dems nominally won a surprise majority on election day. But Felder's move may or may not determine control of the chamber. Right now, Democrats hold a 32-31 edge, but that includes the four members of the beyond-maddening "Independent Democratic Conference," who have also said they're open to siding with the GOP (or with no one, which would also hand power to Republicans). Indeed, the IDC has even met with Majority Leader Dean Skelos, but no deal's yet been reached.

However, there's also the matter of the 46th Senate District, where Democrat Cecilia Tkaczyk (who hopes she never has to run a write-in campaign) currently has a 139-vote edge over Republican George Amedore, with more than 9,000 absentee ballots and an unknown number of provisionals left to be counted. A Tkaczyk win would be a major upset, but it may well be in the cards: According to GOP sources, there are more outstanding absentee ballots from registered Dems than Republicans. But if Amedore were to come from behind, then Felder would give the GOP a 32-31 edge.

So Felder may have made a strange mistake in jumping so early, because if Tkaczyk can hang on, then the IDC—and not Felder—becomes the power-broker. On the flipside, if Tkaczyk loses, then the IDC looks like chumps for not moving quickly enough. Of course, Felder's always made it clear that he prefers Skelos, so reversing course would probably have been difficult for any number of reasons. As for the IDC, it's possible that they can still wring concessions out of Skelos, who would probably prefer a 36-seat majority to a bare 32-seat edge. Ugh. What suck.

WA-St. Sen: Before the election, the Democrats controlled the Washington State Senate by a 27-22 margin, and afterwards it looked like that 27-22 edge would continue. At this point, though, there are at least three caveats attached to that. First, that depends on long-time Vancouver-area Republican state Sen. Don Benton losing; he'd been losing narrowly to Dem state Rep. Tim Probst, but after the last count is now up by 65 votes. A Benton victory would cut that Dem edge to 26-23. (You may remember Benton from the '10 WA-Sen race, where he was going to be the GOP's sacrificial lamb until they got Dino Rossi to saddle up on last time, or if your memory goes way back, from losing the open WA-03 in 1998.)

Second, if that edge gets cut to 26-23, then Democratic dissidents can start messing with things. Two of the three Dems who joined the GOP budget coup last year (Tim Sheldon, and Rodney Tom—we may have dodged a bullet not running him in WA-08 in 2008 after all) are still in the Senate, then they say they'll push for a power-sharing arrangement that would put GOPers in charge of certain committees. They aren't going so far as to demand GOP share in leadership, though; in fact, the Dem caucus already has elected Ed Murray as the chamber's new majority leader. This makes Murray the state's first-ever LGBT floor leader, and assuming he wants to keep this job, it also scrambles the calculus for Seattle's mayoral race next year, where Murray was considered a frontrunner.

And third and finally, there's also the wee matter of replacing Derek Kilmer, just elected to the U.S. House. Under Washington law, there isn't an immediate special election; a member of the same party will be appointed to replace him, and then there will be a special as part of the regularly scheduled Nov. 2013 elections. The link has a list of potential Dem names, but also says that Republican state Rep. Jan Angel has already said she'll run in that replacement special election. This district is the reddest one left in the Senate with a Democratic member, so it could go to the Republicans. (And even if Probst does defeat Benton, a loss here would still allow more shenanigans from the dissident duo in 2014). (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Congress: The National Journal's interactive feature on the new members of the incoming 113th Congress is just awesome. You can sort the entire gang by party, gender, ethnicity, and more. And it's all very slick. Click through and I promise you'll enjoy.

Demographics: This NYT chart examining exit polling results is really very well done, from a visual perspective. It uses arrows that each have three inflection points to describe how Obama performed among various demographic groups: The starting point is John Kerry's 2004 take, followed by Obama's 2008 effort, and then Obama's 2012 share. So you can see, for instance, that the president improved several points among women over Kerry, then retrenched a few (but by no means all the way back) in his re-election campaign. With Latinos, though, Obama not only did better than Kerry, but he also did better in 2012 than in 2008. Really fascinating stuff.

DGA/RGA: Sean Sullivan has a good roundup of spending by on contested governor's races by both the DGA and RGA this. While the RGA did pick up a 30th governor's mansion (in North Carolina)—the most either party has held—they outspent the DGA by a huge margin overall, $57 million to $35 million. In spite of that, Democrats held on to tough open seats in Montana, Washington, and New Hampshire, and re-elected governors in two red states, West Virginia and Missouri. One remarkable thing Sullivan doesn't mention is the final margin in New Hampshire, a race almost everyone (ourselves included) had as a tossup but which went for Democrat Maggie Hassan by a huge 12-point margin. (That's wider than the GOP's win in NC.) Spending by both committees was equal in that race—$8 million apiece, though in Montana, the RGA outspent the DGA $4.7 mil to $3 mil.

House: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi announced on Wednesday that she will stay on in her current position. While Republicans, of course, still control the House, Democrats appear to have picked up eight seats in the 2012 elections, narrowing the GOP's majority to 234-201. More importantly, though, no one seemed interested in challenging Pelosi for the job, particularly seeing as Steny Hoyer, the no. 2 Democrat in the chamber, plans to seek the role of House Minority Whip once more.

NRSC: The "get a brain, morans!" jokes will really write themselves for the next two years. Shira Toeplitz reports that there's some serious GOP grumbling about the fact that Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran will take the helm at the NRSC, largely centered around the fact that Moran is an unknown freshman with a weak fundraising record who hails from a state without a large, wealthy donor base... but otherwise, he's perfect for the job! The guy Republicans did want, Ohio's Rob Portman, will instead become a vice-chair, along with Senator-elect Ted Cruz of Texas. If Jerry Moran somehow turns out to be the next Tom Cole, I will be so happy.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  more elections plz (7+ / 0-)

    cause the one last week wasn't enough.

    There's, of course, the LA-03 runoff, but I don't really have a horse in that race. Closer to home (well, for me), there are going to be elections for the Diet of Japan on December 16th cause Prime Minister Noda dissolved the Diet. His party, the DPJ, is super unpopular and could possibly drop below 100 seats (they currently have 306/480 total). Why he's calling an election at a time when his party is hated is a mystery. Perhaps he should go grab coffee with Arkansas Democrats.

    of course, another consequence of the election would be that Noda would no longer be PM. Assuming that happens, no Japanese PM since Junichiro Koizumi left office in 2006 will have served more than a year and 3 months. (Wikipedia Koizumi, btw. I'm fairly sure that hair is the reason why he held on for so long.)

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 05:06:43 AM PST

    •  Newt didn't last too long even with his hair. (0+ / 0-)
    •  Not only that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      condorcet, stevenaxelrod

      It's illegal! The Supreme Court declared the current district lines illegal (because of wildly varying population in the various districts, gerrymandered to benefit the LDP.) So the Japanese parliament is about to go from dysfunctional and corrupt, to dysfunctional, corrupt, and illegitimate. If the Supreme Court had any backbone they'd invalidate the results, but I doubt it (in Japan the Supreme Court is, for all intents and purposes, a figurehead body full of spineless cads. They'll probably just say something along the lines of "yes, it's illegal, and shame on all of you, but no, we don't care enough to do anything about it.)

      As to why Noda is doing it, it's because him and Seji Meahara (leaders of the conservative, reformist wing of the DJP) think the only way to "save" the DJP  at this point is to force all the non-reformist elements out of the DJP. They want to blow up the entire party and run in the next election as a rump centrist party ready to join a conservative coalition.

      Shinzo Abe, a far-right lunatic who had a literal mental breakdown the last time he was prime minister, is about to become prime minister with the help of the center-left. (!)

      The times we live in...

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:44:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        condorcet, stevenaxelrod

        the DJP actually only controls 243/480 due to defections since the last election. 36 left with Ozawa, 9 left to form a small left-wing fair trade party called Kizuna party after Noda announced his support of the TPP, some left to Hashimoto's party back when that looked viable, and some became independents.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:57:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Shinzo Abe is a right winger? (0+ / 0-)

        I thought he was popular among progressives.

        •  You're mistaken (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          condorcet, stevenaxelrod

          I'm not sure who you're thinking of; like all parties of power the LDP has had leaders who could be described as coming from many various place on the political spectrum, but Abe was unmistakably right-wing. He's a nationalist who tried to change Japans pacifist constitution, denies the rape of nanking, and visited the Yasukuni shrine honoring war criminals. Domestically he supported Koizumi's privatizations.

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:26:09 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Seiji Maehara (0+ / 0-)

        heh, I lived in his district while I studied abroad. I remember him most for this. (funny since in the US, FEC violations just get you a slap on the wrist)

        my main concern is whether former Tokyo governor, warmongering racist, xenophobe, homophobe, and general douche Shintaro Ishihara will win a seat in the Diet (probably, ugh). One of the biggest mysteries to me about Japanese politics is how the most cosmopolitan areas seem to elect the biggest right-wing hacks. Ishihara and the mayors of Osaka and Nagoya are all nationalist wingnuts.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 02:04:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

          We can only hope that bottom feeder's new party is as successful as the last one he founded ("Stand Up, Japan!" which was a miserable failure.)

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 03:55:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  As to other elections (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      condorcet, stevenaxelrod, sapelcovits

      Like you mentioned, Japan before new years.

      The Italian primary to lead the center-left coalition is on November 25. It's a close three-way battle between current leader of the Democratic Party (largest party in the coalition) and longtime government apparatchik Pier Luigi Bersani, leader of the smaller (and farther left) Left-Ecology-Freedom, gay communist and President of the Apulia region Nichi Vendola, and the moderate pro-Monti mayor of Florence Matteo Renzi.

      The general election (which the center-left is expected to win) will be April 2013.

      Additionally, the troika will probably collapse before the year is out and a new greek election might be held in January or February.

      I also know Israel will be holding parliamentary elections in January 2013, although I couldn't tell you much about them.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:53:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  We plan for our elections for two (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Flaming Liberal for Jesus

      years, and yet all over the country we have trouble providing voters access and counting the votes right. How in the world can the Japaneses just up and decide to have an election in one month? Does this not illustrate how as a society they are much more organized than we are? I doubt that even one US state could pull that off.

    •  Really obscure English and Welsh election today (0+ / 0-)

      Today, is the day for the people of England and Wales (excluding London) to elect Police and Crime Commissioners. This is a daft idea, invented by the Conservatives, to replace the traditional (and almost invisible) Police Committees of local Councillors and Magistrates with a single directly elected official in each force area.

      The job involves hiring and firing Chief Constables and setting guidelines for the Police to follow, without compromising the operational independence of the police forces. There is some concern that the new system will end up politicising the police, but we will have to see how things work out. The Conservatives are hoping it will make the police more responsive to the concerns of the general public.

      The general consensus seems to be that the turnout is likely to be in the 10 to 20 per cent range, but we will know when the results are available tomorrow.

      In slightly higher profile elections, there are also three parliamentary by-elections (= special elections). Two are in very safe northern English urban Labour seats. The third is the East Midlands swing seat of Corby, which everybody expects Labour to gain easily in the current mid-term political climate.

      To be really complete, the first direct election for the office of Mayor of Bristol is also taking place.

      There is no man alive who is sufficiently good to rule the life of the man next door to him. Sir Rhys Hopkin Morris, M.P.

      by Gary J on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 01:33:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Slight correction (0+ / 0-)

        One of the by-elections today is in the South Wales seat of Cardiff South and Penarth. The northern English seat, being contested today, is Manchester Central. Those two seats former members had resigned to contest the Police and Crime Commissioner election.

        There are two more northern English Labour seats (Rotheram and Middlesbrough) along with a London Labour seat (Croydon North), all due to be contested on 29th November.

        There is no man alive who is sufficiently good to rule the life of the man next door to him. Sir Rhys Hopkin Morris, M.P.

        by Gary J on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 02:33:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  2012 election trivia (2+ / 0-)

    What was the one state where Jill Stein exceeded 1% of the vote?

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 05:07:01 AM PST

  •  Maybe it's just me (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    but I think McCain was being sarcastic with the Angus King tweet.

  •  Oh, fuck no. Not again. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Not that I hadn't already heard this, but.....

    They test two Democrats, 2009 candidate Terry McAuliffe (who has more-or-less announced)

    "That the people have a right to bear arms for the defence of themselves and the State ..."- Vermont Constitution Chapter 1, Article 16

    by kestrel9000 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 05:17:20 AM PST

  •  Patrick Murphy (8+ / 0-)

    It was noticed that Nancy Pelosi called on Murphy to speak first when she introduced the freshman class at her press conference. She seemed to take particular delight in noting that the tea party-backed Allen West spent 4x as much as Murphy and still lost.

  •  appreciate the NY-St Sen, WA-St Sen etc updates (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kleinburger, bear83, condorcet

    Those are details not readily available elsewhere, so appreciate very much those insightful details.  After more final votes are counted, I hope someone will do a state by state update of state row officers and state legislature results (and changes this election from prior).

  •  I guess Virginians prefer a non-dick to a dick (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    copymark, Aquarius40, pademocrat

    I can't stand McAuliffe.  Warner, while not great, is not nearly as bad.

    •  Virginia hasn't elected a Governor of the same... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, Sylv, stevenaxelrod holding the White House since 1965.

      McAuliffe may be a dick, but he's an acceptable dick compared to either Cuccinelli or Bolling.

      Those are the viable options.

      When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

      by Egalitare on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 05:34:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree completely (0+ / 0-)

        I was just comparing McAuliffe to Warner.

        All Repubs are exponentially bigger dicks than McAuliffe.

        And, of course, Warner has a much better chance of winning.

        So although I would support McAuliffe over any Repub, I would much prefer Warner, who is decidedly less dicky than McAuliffe.

  •  Not a fan of Terry Mac, BUT (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    And this is a huge but, if Warner runs and wins, I believe the current Republican Governor may get to appoint someone to fill his Senate seat. Do.Not.Want.

    So 'tis a puzzlement at this point.

    •  Nope! Pretty sure Warner would appoint his own (0+ / 0-)


      They tortured people to get false confessions to fraudulently justify our invading Iraq.

      by Ponder Stibbons on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 05:36:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Warner appoints his own, period (4+ / 0-)

        He appoints at the moment after he's sworn in.

        This is settled.

        The problem is not who appoints, but who to appoint.  Tough call.  But not something Mark Warner would bother thinking about unless he first runs and wins.  My guess is he doesn't run, it's McAuliffe.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:32:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  You know VA as well as anyone around here (0+ / 0-)

          How electable is Terry McAuliffe?  

          •  Not very. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            He's not well known and last go-around he lost to Creigh Deeds who ran as Republican-lite and got smashed by Transvaj Bob McDonnell.

            Warner has visions of being some sort of grand conciliator in the Senate that would propel him to run for president in 2016. His allegiance to the "gang of six" was disgusting in my opinion and his public comments that was like the Tea Party unforgivable.

            "We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." - Louis D. Brandeis

            by VA6thDem on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:52:45 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  He's as electable as Cuccinelli (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              Downballot in Virginia is by and large all coattails, which is why Cooch won in 2009.

              The early polling shows a tossup, McAuliffe even with a very small edge.

              Terry has potential issues with his image.  Cooch might be the only guy he can beat.  But make no mistake, he can beat Cooch.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:48:55 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I would hope so... (0+ / 0-)

                but after the recent election I do not see the GOP establishment lining up behind Kook.

                "We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." - Louis D. Brandeis

                by VA6thDem on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 11:05:01 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I don't think you realize Cooch is settled (0+ / 0-)

                  Bolling can't win a primary or convention, no one disputes that.  Cuccinelli is going to be the nominee.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 04:03:13 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Then we need to choose wisely... (0+ / 0-)

                    personally I'd like to see Perriello (sp?) get the nod for the Dems.

                    "We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." - Louis D. Brandeis

                    by VA6thDem on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 01:00:20 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  He's not running (0+ / 0-)

                      Perriello isn't running for anything next year, there's been no buzz about him at all.

                      Unless Mark Warner surprises and runs, McAuliffe is it.

                      McAuliffe can beat Cooch, as long as Terry doesn't blow it in defining Cooch on TV it should be no worse than a tossup going into election day.

                      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 08:39:07 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

    •  Why would Warner quit the Senate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      to serve as a one term governor? By Virginia law, he can not succeed himself.

      You fell victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is "Never get involved in a land war in Asia".

      by yellowdog on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:20:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Good God, but Terry McAuliffe is a catfood loving (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aquarius40, exlrrp

    Erskin-Bowles kissing, plutocrat licking asshole. Please, don't let his ilk darken our door again.

    •  Yeah, Creigh Deeds... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      flhiii88, pademocrat, stevenaxelrod

      was a HUGE improvement over McAuliffe, right?  

      Terry was the only candidate with the smarts and the organization to give the Dems a fighting chance in '09, but thanks to snarky comments like this we wound up with a born loser as the nominee.  And look who we got as governor!

      •  Like Ben Nelson, who castrated ACA? (0+ / 0-)

        Electing pro-corporate bankster loving blue dogs greatly weakens the Democratic side of both the House and Senate by forcing them to cater to the whims of these saboteurs to get anything passed.

        The end result is vastly weaker legislation that fails to accomplish progressive aims and strengthens the notion of Democratic fecklessness.

        Just like only Bill Clinton could get NAFTA passed, only a corporate-friendly blue dog laden Democratic Congress will be able to destroy Social Security & Medicare, leaving the progressive project in ruins for a generation or more.

  •  Warner has made noises about maybe running next (0+ / 0-)

    year, and said that he'll make an announcement by Thanksgiving.

    They tortured people to get false confessions to fraudulently justify our invading Iraq.

    by Ponder Stibbons on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 05:37:21 AM PST

  •  Add AZ-02: (7+ / 0-)

    Barber continues to lead and the votes from McSally-leaning Cochise County have all been counted. There are more votes to be counted, but they are all from Pima County, and will favor Barber slightly. ☛Arizona Daily Star

    The free market is not the solution, the free market is the problem.

    by Azazello on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 05:45:15 AM PST

  •  Whatever happens or doesn't happen in 2013, (10+ / 0-)

    the Ayatollah General Kookanelly must NOT be elected governor!

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 05:50:41 AM PST

    •  Bolling may be seen as "less polarizing" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      yellowdog, stevenaxelrod

      But the battle for the nomination will reveal that he has just as much capacity for teh crazy as Cuccinelli. Either would be miserable.

      So much so that if McAuliffe is the nominee, I'm certain my brother (Newport News) and sister (Fredericksburg) won't even have to hold their noses to vote for him.

      When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

      by Egalitare on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:15:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I agree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fearlessfred14, stevenaxelrod

      Characterizing Cuccinelli as a "conservative firebrand" reatly understates the case. He's a nutbar of the same degree as Bachmann, Akin, Mourdock, etc.

  •  Senate Dems need to stay in the Senate (8+ / 0-)

    2014 is already shaping up as a tough season for the blue team, with a number of our red state incumbents up for reelection. While I think there is good reason to think we (like Clinton in 1998) might be able to avoid the "6th year itch" wipeout that occurred in 1986 and 2006, I don't want to make things harder than they will already be.

    We went down this path after the 2008 election, and nearly lost Colorado (thank you tea party nuts for nominating Buck). Biden's elevation to the Vice Presidency nearly cost us Delaware (thank you tea party nuts for nominating the "not a witch" lady). NY worked out OK with Gillibrand but we had two costly elections to win.

    Also, look at the disaster that befell Arizona with Gov. Brewer after Napolitano left to become Homeland Security Secretary. She would have been our best candidate for Senate in either of the last two cycles. Likewise Sebelius from Kansas.

  • (0+ / 0-)

    Check this out:

    for some fun with Cuccinelli.

    Abortion Clinics OnLine, the world's first and largest source for online abortion clinic information. Join my DK Abortion Group.

    by annrose on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:03:38 AM PST

  •  From Virginia. . . (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aquarius40, bumiputera, pademocrat

    McAuliffe's specialty is in amassing donations, at which he's apparently without peer. Despite this, his time as head of the DNC during the Clinton Administration was painful on Sunday mornings, when the head of the RNC would run rhetorical rings around him, every week. It didn't matter what the issue was, McAuliffe would lose the debate every week. I understand the importance of fundraising to a campaign and the system of logrolling in Washington, but McAuliffe is a poor choice as a public advocate, and that's a necessary skill to have in politics. I wish he'd have been satisfied with something with less of a high profile, during the Clinton years, and that's as a strong Clinton supporter.

    The victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.

    by Pacifist on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:04:03 AM PST

  •  Why do you say Warner is leaning against running? (0+ / 0-)

    You write:

    "Mark Warner (who doesn't seem inclined to seek his old job back)"
    How do you come by that insight? I have not seen or heard that.

    Coming Soon -- to an Internet connection near you:

    by FischFry on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:04:55 AM PST

    •  Check out NLS and Blue Virginia (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Egalitare, pademocrat

      if you want to know more about Virginia politics (from a progressive perspective). And yes, David Nir's correct, Warner's extremely unlikely to run for governor in 2013.

    •  I'm active in NoVA and that is the thinking (8+ / 0-)

      Most here don't think Warner will run.

      That McAuliffe publicily announced contributes to people thinking that.

      The advantages and disadvantages of McAuliffe against Cooch are easy to lay out.

      Three advantages:  (1) Terry will raise more money than God; (2) Terry will run a technically very proficient campaign, none of Deeds' Godawful mistakes; and (3) Terry will have the polarizing Cuccinelli to run against.

      Three disadvantages:  (1) Terry's resume has no public service; (2) Terry's business background has a little bit of a Romney-Lite feel to it, where he's an investor and not really an entrepreneur and probably has some investments that are damaging; and (3) Terry's time as DNC Chair potentially hurts his image and makes it easier to label him a "hack."  Of course all three of these disadvantages can really be rolled up into a singular issue of Terry having a very vulnerable public image.  He's going to have to be very smart and thorough about selling himself and addressing liabilities.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:40:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, there's NoVA thinking and there's Warner (0+ / 0-)

        I get that a lot of people think he won't run, but is anyone getting that from Warner himself (or secondhand, from someone who is)?

        Coming Soon -- to an Internet connection near you:

        by FischFry on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:08:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Very good analysis of T-Macs strengths/weaknesses (0+ / 0-)

        Obviously, NOVA turnout will be key.  We routinely lose 30% + of the Democratic "Federal-only" voters during state elections.   If we can cut that drop-off in half in Arlington, Alexandria, Loudon and Fairfax, we could carry the state.  

        Easier said than done, of course.   But hard-headed analysis like this is a good first step.  Another is actively reaching out to the OFA Neighborhood teams, especially the leaders, to play some kind of role in 2013.   Ideally, I'd love to get them involved in local party organizations, many of which desperately need revitalization.   But if that is bridge too far, at least we need them active in the 2013 Gubernatorial campaign.  

  •  Shapiro is very young but also a talented politico (5+ / 0-)

    Don't know if it's his time, but he should be a big player in PA (and national)  politics for a long time to come.

    Coming Soon -- to an Internet connection near you:

    by FischFry on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:07:35 AM PST

  •  Voter supression-civil and/or criminal cases? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The ALEC effort to coordinate legislation to supress voting in at least six states seems to be a self-evident crime--an interstate conspiracy, coupled with donations to specific legislators to propose boilerplate legislation.

    Who has the cajones to prosecute? Or sue? The latter seems more likely, but it's clear this wasn't the wacko idea of one governor or a little knot of nut case state legislators.

    •  What's the law against it? (2+ / 0-)

      Remember that ALEC gives scholarships, but does not itself give campaign donations AFAIK, so it'd be hard to make a bribery case. The legislation is repellant, but advancing repellant or even unconstitutional legislation is not a crime for a legislator. It's definitely a conspiracy, but I just don't see where it's criminal.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

      by fearlessfred14 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:54:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don't think Warner runs. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker

    Warner seems like he has sights on a higher office and it doesn't make any sense for him to seek his old job back. Especially if he runs in 2016, why run for Gov. when you'd have to immediately start running for president? He can stay in the spotlight as a Senator and not have to worry about election until 2018.

    I hope to god we find someone better than Terry McAuliffe, he was awful as DNC chair. Anytime he speaks I want to claim briefly I'm a republican. We have better candidates too in Virginia Democratic Party Chairman Brian Moran, former Reps. Glenn Nye or Tom Perriello.

  •  More fun trivia: name the husband/wife reps (0+ / 0-)

    Who both lost their elections last week.  Bonus: name the states they represented in the house before they lost.

    The electoral college was my safety school.

    by Fiddler On A Hot Tin Roof on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:29:07 AM PST

  •  There will likely be plenty (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, The Caped Composer

    of arguments here (again) with McAuliffe running. While some here will insist he is a true blue liberal, I think he is basically a wheeler-dealer. He cares not a whit about policy, or helping people. He is a player. I even read his book, hoping to glean a softer side of him. But alas, it showed him to be the back-room money guy to his core (and damn good at it).

  •  VA-Gov (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pademocrat, restondem, stevenaxelrod

    I'm not hearing on the ground here that Warner has any plans to run.  Terry McAuliffe, however, has already announced  that he WILL run (via his Facebook page):

    I am as excited as you that President Obama was re-elected with the help of Virginia - and that Tim Kaine will be our next Senator. I realize that after any election some people’s immediate question is about the next campaign. So I want to be straightforward with you: I plan on running for Governor of Virginia in 2013.

    I’m eager to hear about any ideas you have for Virginia’s future.

    Meanwhile - no doubt that Bagger Cucinelli will run.  BUT - there's a great controversy brewing with him at the center.  A young man was convicted of molestation solely based on the testimony of his accuser.  The molestation was alleged to take place when the accuser was 10 and defendant 14.  The accuser gave her testimony when she was 17.  She has since recanted her testimony in its entirety.  She has said she made up the charge to deflect repercussions from her parents when she was found surfing pornographic websites.  She has since been charged with perjury.

    Yet Cucinelli refuses to release the young man and has directed the prison to keep him incarcerated, despite a Judge's order that the young man be released.

    I would think that Warner would want to be to McAuliffe what Clinton was to Obama - the perfect wingman, lifting McAuliffe's candidacy.  Because be it Bolling or Cucinelli, it's all bad.

  •  VA GOV RACE may be ours for the taking (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The GOP nominating process was changed to a convention style process which always favors the true believers.  I have diaried about this before....Cuccinelli is the favored even though he has been out raised by Bolling.   If he wins, it will make things interesting with Terry who with even the low name recognition is still winning.  Terry also has the BIG DOG to bring in for help and I think Obama may come to his aid as well

    I can't force you to do anything, I can just make you regret it!

    by restondem on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:27:54 AM PST

  •  I received a mailer from trans-vaginal Bob (0+ / 0-)

    our illustrious Gov., giving his support to Bolling. I couldn't believe it when it arrived in my mail Monday, I thought it was some left-over from the election. But no, the Repubs are already sending out mailers and doubling down on the techniques that worked so well for them on Nov. 6. Keep up the good work, Fellas!

    BTW, I got one of those polling calls regarding Warner & McAuliffe. I was so confused - WARNER is going to run?! How come I don't KNOW about this! - that I answered "Warner" over McAuliffe. Terry McAuliffe would not be my first choice for any seat, being a fully-owned corporate entity, but given the choice between him and the batshit crazy Repubs, I'd have to vote for him. My hope would be that he would vote like a real Dem SOME of the time. But here in VA, we seem to like our Dems to be Repub-lite. They're the only ones that get elected. Some are better than others, better being Tim Kaine, "others" being Webb. One good speech does not wipe out years of voting like a Blue Dog. Glad he's leaving.

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