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10:25 AM PT: Congress: The National Journal's interactive feature on the new members of the incoming 113th Congress is just awesome. You can sort the entire gang by party, gender, ethnicity, and more. And it's all very slick. Click through and I promise you'll enjoy.

10:26 AM PT: CA-52: Another day, another increase in Democrat Scott Peters' lead. San Diego County's Tuesday evening update sets incumbent GOPer Brian Bilbray 2,660 votes behind Peters, 761 further behind than he was one day prior. The story is getting old at this point: Fewer ballots are left and Peters is doing better and better (scoring 53.2 percent in today's update). Assuming 50,000 ballots left to be counted in the district (approximately a quarter of the 210,000 left countywide), Bilbray's magic number is 52.7 percent. Dan Lungren up north (in CA-07) is looking pretty screwed, but Bilbray certainly doesn't look much better.

10:35 AM PT: ME-Sen: No surprise: Independent Angus King is gonna dance with the ones what brung him. King will caucus with Democrats in the Senate is supporting Harry Reid as majority leader. Given that the NRSC ran ads against him, and given that (despite his protestations that he's too good for party politics) his ideology leans left, any other result would have been pretty stunning. Except, well, to John McCain, who called King's decision "shocking and startling news." (That just demonstrates how out-of-the-loop McCain is, though, since Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell didn't even reach out to Angus.) King's move cements the Democrat's 55-45 advantage in the chamber.

10:50 AM PT: House: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi announced on Wednesday that she will stay on in her current position. While Republicans, of course, still control the House, Democrats appear to have picked up eight seats in the 2012 elections, narrowing the GOP's majority to 234-201. More importantly, though, no one seemed interested in challenging Pelosi for the job, particularly seeing as Steny Hoyer, the no. 2 Democrat in the chamber, plans to seek the role of House Minority Whip once more.

11:14 AM PT: FL-18: GOP Rep. Allen West has now apparently filed another lawsuit, this time to demand a full recount of all early ballots in St. Lucie County. (If you've been following this whole overtime saga, you know that St. Lucie conducted a partial "retabulation" of three days' worth of early votes.) If this whole "Florida congressman" thing doesn't work out, though, West now has a standing invitation from the chair of... the Georgia Republican Party to move back to his home state and run for office there some day. But exactly which incumbent Georgia congressmember does she want West to run against in the primary?

11:40 AM PT: NRSC: The "get a brain, morans!" jokes will really write themselves for the next two years. Shira Toeplitz reports that there's some serious GOP grumbling about the fact that Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran will take the helm at the NRSC, largely centered around the fact that Moran is an unknown freshman with a weak fundraising record who hails from a state without a large, wealthy donor base... but otherwise, he's perfect for the job! The guy Republicans did want, Ohio's Rob Portman, will instead become a vice-chair, along with Senator-elect Ted Cruz of Texas. If Jerry Moran somehow turns out to be the next Tom Cole, I will be so happy.

11:54 AM PT: This is also pretty hilarious. Patrick Murphy, of course, is attending freshman orientation on Capitol Hill this week—something candidates in uncalled races are invited to do. (Hell, even NC-07's David Rouzer, who trails by 420 votes, is in attendance.) But West is even grousing about this!

"I think it is premature of him," Tim Edson, West's campaign manager, said on a conference call Wednesday. "I understand he would like to move on and wrap this up, but for someone who claims to be certified public accountant, you would expect him to be a little more concerned about the shifting numbers and the inaccuracies of these numbers."

12:11 PM PT: NY-St. Sen: Well, lovely. Newly-elected "Democratic" state Sen. Simcha Felder has, as expected, decide to caucus with Republicans in the state Senate, even though Dems nominally won a surprise majority on election day. But Felder's move may or may not determine control of the chamber. Right now, Democrats hold a 32-31 edge, but that includes the four members of the beyond-maddening "Independent Democratic Conference," who have also said they're open to siding with the GOP (or with no one, which would also hand power to Republicans). Indeed, the IDC has even met with Majority Leader Dean Skelos, but no deal's yet been reached.

However, there's also the matter of the 46th Senate District, where Democrat Cecilia Tkaczyk (who hopes she never has to run a write-in campaign) currently has a 139-vote edge over Republican George Amedore, with more than 9,000 absentee ballots and an unknown number of provisionals left to be counted. A Tkaczyk win would be a major upset, but it may well be in the cards: According to GOP sources, there are more outstanding absentee ballots from registered Dems than Republicans. But if Amedore were to come from behind, then Felder would give the GOP a 32-31 edge.

So Felder may have made a strange mistake in jumping so early, because if Tkaczyk can hang on, then the IDC—and not Felder—becomes the power-broker. On the flipside, if Tkaczyk loses, then the IDC looks like chumps for not moving quickly enough. Of course, Felder's always made it clear that he prefers Skelos, so reversing course would probably have been difficult for any number of reasons. As for the IDC, it's possible that they can still wring concessions out of Skelos, who would probably prefer a 36-seat majority to a bare 32-seat edge. Ugh. What suck.

12:28 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-St. Sen.: Before the election, the Democrats controlled the Washington State Senate by a 27-22 margin, and afterwards it looked like that 27-22 edge would continue. At this point, though, there are at least three caveats attached to that. One, that depends on long-time Vancouver-area Republican state Sen. Don Benton (whose name you might remember from the '10 WA-Sen race, where he was going to be the GOP's sacrifical lamb until they got Dino Rossi to saddle up on last time, or you might remember him from losing open WA-03 in 1998) losing; he'd been losing narrowly to Dem state Rep. Tim Probst, but after the last count is now up by 65 votes. A Benton victory would cut that Dem edge to 26-23.

Two, if that edge gets cut to 26-23, then Democratic dissidents can start messing with things. Two of the three Dems who joined the GOP budget coup last year (Tim Sheldon, and Rodney Tom -- we may have dodged a bullet not running him in WA-08 in 2008 after all) are still in the Senate, and if the edge does narrow to 26-23, then they say they'll push for a power-sharing arrangement that would put GOPers in charge of certain committees. (They aren't going so far as to demand GOP shared leadership, though; in fact, the caucus already has elected Ed Murray late Tuesday as the chamber's new majority leader. This makes Murray the state's first-ever LGBT floor leader; assuming he wants to keep this job, it also scrambles the calculus for Seattle's mayoral race next year, where Murray was considered a frontrunner.)

And three, there's also the wee matter of replacing Derek Kilmer, just elected to the U.S. House. Under Washington law, there isn't an immediate special election; a member of the same party will be appointed to replace him, and then there will be a special as part of the regularly scheduled Nov. 2013 election. The link has a list of potential Dem names, but also says that Republican state Rep. Jan Angel has already said she'll run in that replacement special election. This district is the reddest one left in the Senate with a Democratic member, so it too could go to the Republicans midway through the cycle (and even if Probst pulls it off, a loss here would still allow more shenanigans from the dissident duo in 2014).

12:42 PM PT: VA-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with their first post-election day look at the 2013 Virginia governor's race, which still has yet to fully take shape. They test two Democrats, 2009 candidate Terry McAuliffe (who has more-or-less announced) and Sen. Mark Warner (who doesn't seem inclined to seek his old job back), and two Republicans, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (the establishment pick) and AG Ken Cuccinelli (the movement conservative firebrand), who have both been actively seeking the job for quite some time.

Warner is very popular (58-20 favorables) and crushes both GOPers: Bolling 53-33 and Cuccinelli 52-34. McAuliffe, despite his earlier run, is barely known (17-13 faves), edging Bolling just 38-36 and Cuccinelli 41-37. While Cuccinelli has higher name recognition (29-24 faves) than Bolling (20-8), he's way more polarizing, with 41 percent of Democrats expressing an unfavorable view of him versus just 12 percent for Bolling. I think Dems have to hope the GOP nominates Cuccinelli for that reason. Quinnipiac apparently didn't test the Republican primary this time, but their June poll showed him with a crushing (albeit very early) 51-15 lead over Bolling.

3:11 PM PT: DGA/RGA: Sean Sullivan has a good roundup of spending by on contested governor's races by both the DGA and RGA this. While the RGA did pick up a 30th governor's mansion (in North Carolina)—the most either party has held—they outspent the DGA by a huge margin overall, $57 million to $35 million. In spite of that, Democrats held on to tough open seats in Montana, Washington, and New Hampshire, and re-elected governors in two red states, West Virginia and Missouri. One remarkable thing Sullivan doesn't mention is the final margin in New Hampshire, a race almost everyone (ourselves included) had as a tossup but which went for Democrat Maggie Hassan by a huge 12-point margin. (That's wider than the GOP's win in NC.) Spending by both committees was equal in that race—$8 million apiece, though in Montana, the RGA outspent the DGA $4.7 mil to $3 mil.

3:10 PM PT: OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown's campaign has put together a final tally of all the spending directed against them by conservative interests, and it really is pretty mind-boggling: In all, right-wing groups blew $40 million on the race, with $31 million going to radio and TV ads, $7 million in mail and billboars, and another $2 million for polling and various production costs. And despite all that, Brown still defeated Republican Josh Mandel by five points.

3:12 PM PT: PA-12: Relying on preliminary precinct-level results, Keegan Gibson at PoliticsPA has an interesting look at Dem Rep. Mark Critz's loss in the hotly contested race in PA-12. All things considered, Critz did quite well, falling to Republican Keith Rothfus by only a 3.6 percent margin. Of course, a loss is a loss, but Gibson calculates that Romney beat Obama by a hefty 59-42 spread. That's almost twice as wide as McCain's 54-45 victory in 2008, which shows you just what a brutal headwind Critz was facing.

3:13 PM PT: GA-Sen: We don't ever get too deep into the weeds in terms of the jockeying over congressional leadership posts—after all, this is an elections site. But one contest may actually have an impact on the campaign trail. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05) just beat out Rep. Tom Price (GA-06) for the job of House Republican Conference chair, succeeding Rep. Jeb Hensarling (TX-05) for the fourth-ranking House GOP post. (Hensarling will become chair of the Financial Services Committee. One other interesting side-note is that McMorris Rodgers was the favorite of John Boehner, while Paul Ryan supported Price.)

So what the heck does this have to do with the Senate race in Georgia in 2014? Well, the other week, we referenced a report by local analyst Jim Galloway that suggested Price might be interested in a primary challenge to Sen. Saxby Chambliss. One factor to consider, said Galloway, was how Price fared in his leadership bid. Given his loss to McMorris Rodgers, and the fact that he may have plateaued out for however long John Boehner is Speaker, a Senate bid might look more tempting now.

3:15 PM PT: Demographics: This NYT chart examining exit polling results is really very well done, from a visual perspective. It uses arrows that each have three inflection points to describe how Obama performed among various demographic groups: The starting point is John Kerry's 2004 take, followed by Obama's 2008 effort, and then Obama's 2012 share. So you can see, for instance, that the president improved several points among women over Kerry, then retrenched a few (but by no means all the way back) in his re-election campaign. With Latinos, though, Obama not only did better than Kerry, but he also did better in 2012 than in 2008. Really fascinating stuff.

3:28 PM PT: PA-Gov: Pennsylvania Democrats sound eager to take on first-term GOP Gov. Tom Corbett in 2014, particularly given Corbett's weak approval ratings and unhappiness over his education cuts. So of course the Great Mentioner is kicking into high gear, and here's one early list of possibles from the Morning Call: Sen. Bob Casey (who just won re-election), Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro, state Treasurer Rob McCord, Tom Wolf (a former official in ex-Gov. Ed Rendell's administration), Philadelphia mayoral candidate and rich guy Tom Knox, and Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski. No one's quoted on the record, but in a separate piece in the York Daily Record, Wolf says he's considering it.

Also of note: Waste disposal company owner Scott Wagner says he's weighing a primary challenge to Corbett. It's not clear how rich Wagner is (his company website says it employs 300 people), but he'd need some considerable personal wealth to even have a prayer. But even if he does, I can't really think of too many governors knocks off in their own primaries by rich businessmen.

3:49 PM PT: AZ-02: Looks like Dem Rep. Ron Barber's lead is now down to 654 votes on Wednesday evening. It stood at 829 votes on Tuesday.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Angus King announces he'll caucus with Dems. (13+ / 0-)

    Not surprising, but still good news.

    Heard it on Politico livestream.

  •  Nancy Pelosi will stay on as Minority Leader. (15+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 06:29:05 AM PST

  •  Can someone point me to the (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    terjeanderson, Woody, MichaelNY

    vote totals for Working Family Party in NYS? I've only been able to find blended results.

    "George RR Martin is not your bitch" ~~ Neil Gaiman

    by tardis10 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 06:47:52 AM PST

  •  Ugh, Israel still at DCCC (6+ / 0-)

    IMHO, he's much worse than Hoyer.

    22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Re-Elect Betty Sutton and David Price!

    by liberal intellectual on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:02:01 AM PST

    •  Yeah, he really (8+ / 0-)

      failed when it came to recruiting. His poor candidate recruitment this cycle and poor decisions with financial allocation to what races, should make it clear that someone else needed to take the job this year.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:44:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I just don't get this type of criticism (10+ / 0-)

        In what universe were Dems going to have great recruitment a) after getting wiped out in 2010 and knocked 25 seats into the hole; b) after watching so many maps get redrawn by Republicans in ways designed to screw Dems; and c) in the middle of a still-shitty economy with a not-super-popular president potentially dragging the ticket down?

        Our recruitment was not stellar, but I doubt anyone could have done much better.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:16:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  My criticism is more on policy than DCCC (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Englishlefty, ArkDem14, KingTag, wu ming

          Israel is to the right of Hoyer and is in the rightmost 25% of the Democratic caucus.

          He voted for the Jeff Flake tea party amendment to defund political science at the NSF, for example.

          22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Re-Elect Betty Sutton and David Price!

          by liberal intellectual on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:26:42 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  But (5+ / 0-)

            That doesn't have anything to do with recruitment. (I pray no one wants to rehash Christine Cegelis-type arguments over Rahm Emanuel today!)

            (Also, Israel is 129 out of 190 on lifetime crucial votes in PP's database, which is about two-thirds of the way into the caucus.)

            Political Director, Daily Kos

            by David Nir on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:03:27 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think Emmanuel is a sack of shit (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingTag, sawolf, MichaelNY

              to be blunt, but his recruiting abilities in both cycles were stellar. He didn't drop the ball on big races. As a further point, I just also feel like, seeing where the DCCC was spending, their allocations weren't the best used, and they obviously triaged too many races, and later targeted the wrong ones.

              Spending 1.7 million dollars to protect Mike McIntyre is also ridiculous.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:26:47 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  That's just how it works (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                The DCCC has to protect viable incumbents. It's a membership-driven organization. If it doesn't fulfill that primary mission, then members won't support it and it can't exist.

                Fortunately, there are almost no McIntyres left, so this is not exactly going to be a major problem going forward.

                Political Director, Daily Kos

                by David Nir on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:47:00 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  But for instance (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  The lack of spending in IN-02, VA-02, MI-11, MI-03, and NY-27.

                  Yet they made significant late buys for Eric Stewart and Al Lawson, both moves that ended up proving foolish by the results of the districts. There was obviously some prioritizing that went on, and many very progressive candidates, or candidates in slightly unfavorable districts, were just cut off from significant national aid, that was spent elsewhere, including some districts there were simply over-saturated while other important races were mostly dark for Democrats, save for what the individual campaigns themselves ran, some of which campaigns suffered from a lack of national donor involvement which comes from the DCCC targeting the race.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 03:49:33 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Lawson lost by 4 and Stewart (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    lordpet8, MichaelNY

                    was a dark horse.  How was that foolish?

                    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                    by jncca on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 04:27:47 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  It wasn't (0+ / 0-)

                      But there were districts they missed. They needed to spend more in Upstate New York, for example.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 05:49:55 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  They spent considerably in a late (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        push in FL-02, and also spent several million against Dan Webster. The problem I see is that Webster especially was hit with saturation attacks in an expensive media market, while Kim Gillan was left to fend for herself in a very cheap media market.

                        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                        by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:01:11 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

            •  I prefer DW Nominate Scores... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              http://www.voteview.com/...

              Israel is the 145th furthest to the left in the current Congress. Hoyer is 119th. If we have a problem with Hoyer, then why not Israel?

              I'm just saying I'm not a big fan of his politics, when compared to other Democrats. This is not a comment on his time at DCCC.

              22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Re-Elect Betty Sutton and David Price!

              by liberal intellectual on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:55:17 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  And I also looked at the previous two Congresses.. (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                lordpet8, flhiii88, MichaelNY

                And Israel is at roughly the same spot. I'm just saying, if we are going to hate on Hoyer (who I think is not as bad as we say), why are we not giving the same treatment to Israel?

                22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Re-Elect Betty Sutton and David Price!

                by liberal intellectual on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:58:35 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  well (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  lordpet8, MichaelNY

                  Israel is only responsible for recruitment/money, not policy.  I'd be fine with Mike McIntyre himself heading the DCCC if he were a good fundraiser and in a safe district.  Actually, that's not a bad idea: get a Blue Dog at the DCCC so they can recruit more moderates to take back the red districts.

                  19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                  by jncca on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:38:02 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Totally incomparable (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  bumiputera, lordpet8, MichaelNY

                  The Minority Leader sets the agenda for our party in Congress. The DCCC chair is responsible for candidate recruitment and fundraising. It's like the difference between the CEO and the head of HR.

                  Let me put things another way: Imagine Donna Edwards is equal in skill at fundraising and recruitment as Steve Israel and she became DCCC chair. What would be different as a result? Nothing, really.

                  Political Director, Daily Kos

                  by David Nir on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:45:42 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

        •  Look at the Senate by comparison (4+ / 0-)

          At the beginning of the cycle, no-one wanted to head up the DSCC and almost everyone thought the Democrats would lose control of the Senate, yet Patty Murray recruited a bunch of great candidates, gave them money, and the Democrats gained 2 Senate seats.

          Maybe I'm naive, but I'm not satisfied with a gain of 8 seats while staying deep in the minority in the House, and I think it is a bad mistake to retain Steve Israel as DCCC leader, unless there really was no-one else worth a damn who had any interest in the position.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 05:52:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Huh? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8

        I've never seen any criticism of Dem House recruiting this year. From what I can tell, it was fine. That's not why they didn't win 25 seats, which was always a huge longshot (prez elections don't usually produce House waves).

    •  [sigh] (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, MichaelNY, MetroGnome

      Rep. Israel needs to go. There has been far too much favoritism in assigning resources at the DCCC, good candidates like Taj, Ewing, and Roberts got left out in the cold because they didn't have an in with the DCCC, while other similarly vulnerable districts ([cough] IL-13 & NY-19 [cough]) were overly saturated. Distribution of resources has been inefficient, and candidate recruitment virtually non-existent. Rep. Israel only seems to keep the job because he's got friends in high places, but this is one job we can't afford to give out like that. Much like the NRSC, and Tom Cole's NRCC, we need a complete overhaul of the DCCC, and get in people who understand the districts and care about the caucus, and I don't think the DCCC demonstrated either of those qualities in spades this cycle.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 01:02:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Who else do you recommend? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Englishlefty, MichaelNY

      I'm more curious to learn about what changes, if any, will be made at the DLCC. I'm far more worried about out ability to build up a bench in a bunch of different states, but particularly in the Midwest. It might not the biggest problem, but it's certainly a big one.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 01:05:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not my first choice (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Or second. But he certainly has the ability to raise money. Let's hope he picks up his recruiting efforts.

    •  Rahm is really the only effective DCCC lead (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, skibum59

      I've seen. Israel has been a return to the pre-Rahm DCCC heads. They are all more worried about incumbents and ignore recruitment opportunities.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 03:20:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Reporting back for duty (29+ / 0-)

    I won't be able to talk much about it, but I've been part of the Analytics team that kos talked about on the front page today for the last couple of months (no, I'm not in the picture here, but my empty desk is).

    But that's, unfortunately, over now, although I had an amazing time.

    I won't talk about the 2012 election much, but I'm happy to get back to downballot geekiness and fantasy redistricting.

  •  New York Senate (4+ / 0-)

    Brooklyn Dem Simcha Felder will caucus for GOP: http://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/...

    So that leaves Dems' 1-seat up, with the 4 rogue Dems left.

  •  NC-7 - McIntire by 420, Provisionals Counted Fri (8+ / 0-)
    ... about 4,500 provisional ballots aren’t yet counted in the seven counties that are fully or almost completely within the congressional district, which slices through pieces of five more counties and picks up additional provisional votes in those.

    Provisional ballots will be counted this week. Mailed absentee ballots postmarked by Monday and received before 5 p.m. Friday will be added. Beginning the morning of Nov. 16, county elections boards will begin canvassing their results and certifying them to the state.

    http://www.newsobserver.com/...
    Voters cast a provisional ballot when they run into trouble at the poll. Most commonly, there is an issue with their address, although provisional ballots are used in a variety of circumstances.

    Such ballots are not counted on Election Day. County boards of election will examine them on canvass day, which is Friday, Nov. 16 this year. Assuming the voter is entitled to vote, their ballots will be counted.

    http://www.wral.com/...

    Current results per the NC BOE site - margin is 420:

    Mike McIntyre (DEM)        167,386    50.06%   
    David Rouzer (REP)         166,966   49.94%
    http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/...

    Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

    by bear83 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:40:02 AM PST

  •  The age of internet polls has arrived: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, James Allen, MichaelNY
    The final poll conducted by Google Consumer Surveys had Mr. Obama ahead in the national popular vote by 2.3 percentage points – very close to his actual margin, which was 2.6 percentage points based on ballots counted through Saturday morning.

    Ipsos, which conducted online polls for Reuters, came close to the actual results in most places that it surveyed, as did the Canadian online polling firm Angus Reid. Another online polling firm, YouGov, got reasonably good results.

    The online polls conducted by JZ Analytics, run by the pollster John Zogby, were not used in the FiveThirtyEight forecast because we do not consider their method to be scientific, since it encourages voters to volunteer to participate in their surveys rather than sampling them at random. Their results were less accurate than most of the online polling firms, although about average as compared with the broader group of surveys.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:40:42 AM PST

    •  Wasn't Google's poll bouncing around by 4-5% (4+ / 0-)

      every other day? I seem to remember it kept switching between a 2% Romney lead and a 2% Obama lead on 538, distorting his averaging of national movement. Makes the fact that their final poll hit it right seem less valuable to me.

    •  I'm still very cautious (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, terjeanderson, MichaelNY

      I want to see them perform well for another cycle or two before I can buy their ability to poll American elections accurately.

      Rasmussen, too, had a couple good cycles, and I was duped as were many others (I even became a paying subscriber for a few years!).

      Time is a cruel mistress to bad pollsters, but it takes time to find out they're bad.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:23:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Here's how you can sign up for ipsos polling... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      At least that's what Taegan Goddard thinks.

      https://register.i-say.com/...

      I'm not sure if that's how you get in for the political polling.  If so, then ipsos is no different than Zogby in that respect.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:44:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The actual margin will be 3% in the end (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Getting a topline right once proves very little.  Do it three times with sound methodology and then you can sit at the adults table.

      On the other hand, all the adult pollsters did somewhere between mildly good and abysmal, so getting to the adult table is not a high bar these days.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:47:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Has anyone ever actually followed through (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    with a threat to caucus with nobody? I can't thin of a single example in history. The incentives are just too strong against it.

  •  Ranking the Red-to-Blue Candidates (11+ / 0-)

    Biggest regrets are failing to spend significantly on IN-02 and MN-06 (plus some non-R2B races like NE-02 and NY-23), while spending on what in hindsight turned out to be lost causes such as WI-07, CA-10, CO-03, NY-19, and NV-03.  But not a bad job overall.

    RUNAWAY WINNERS

    1. MD-06 – John Delaney (+21)
    2. NM-01 – Michelle Lujan Grisham (+18)
    3. CA-41 – Mark Takano (+16)
    4. IL-11 – Bill Foster (+16)
    5. WA-10 – Denny Heck (+16)
    6. FL-26 – Joe Garcia (+11)
    7. CA-47 – Alan Lowenthal (+10)
    8. IL-08 – Tammy Duckworth (+10)
    9. IL-12 – Bill Enyart (+9)
    10. MN-08 – Rick Nolan (+9)
    11. WA-01 – Suzan DelBene (+8)

    WINNERS

    12. IL-17 – Cheri Bustos (+6)
    13. NH-02 – Anne Kuster (+5)
    14. AZ-01 – Ann Kirkpatrick (+4)
    15. CA-26 – Julia Brownley (+4)
    16. CA-36 – Raul Ruiz (+4)
    17. NH-01 – Carol Shea-Porter (+4)
    18. NY-18 – Sean Maloney (+4)
    19. NY-24 – Dan Maffei (+4)
    20. TX-23 – Pete Gallego (+4)
    21. AZ-09 – Kirsten Sinema (+3)
    22. CT-05 – Elizabeth Esty (+3)
    23. CA-07 – Ami Bera (+2)
    24. CA-52 – Scott Peters (+1)
    25. IL-10 – Brad Schneider (+1)
    26. FL-18 – Patrick Murphy (+0)

    IMPRESSIVE LOSERS

    27. MI-01 – Gary McDowell (-0)
    28. IL-13 – David Gill (-1)
    29. IN-02 – Brendan Mullen (-1)
    30. MN-06 – Jim Graves (-2)
    31. CO-06 – Joe Miklosi (-4)
    32. FL-10 – Val Demings (-4)

    WE’RE NOT WORTHY

    33. FL-02 – Al Lawson (-6)
    34. OH-06 – Charlie Wilson (-6)
    35. CA-10 – Jose Hernandez (-7)
    36. NY-11 – Mark Murphy (-7)
    37. NY-19 – Julian Schreibman (-7)
    38. FL-16 – Keith Fitzgerald (-8)
    39. IA-04 – Christie Vilsack (-8)
    40. MN-02 – Mike Obermueller (-8)
    41. NV-03 – John Oceguera (-8)
    42. VA-02 – Paul Hirschbiel (-8)
    43. NJ-03 – Shelley Adler (-9)
    44. TX-14 – Nick Lampson (-9)
    45. IN-08 – Dave Crooks (-10)
    46. MT-AL – Kim Gillan (-10)

    WE CAME, WE SAW, WE SUCKED

    47. TN-04 – Erik Stewart (-12)
    48. WI-07 – Pat Kreitlow (-12)
    49. WI-08 – Jamie Wall (-12)
    50. CO-03 – Sal Pace (-13)
    51. ND-AL – Pam Gulleson (-13)
    52. NC-11 – Hayden Rogers (-14)
    53. PA-06 – Manan Trivedi (-14)
    54. PA-08 – Kathy Boockvar (-14)
    55. PA-07 – George Badey (-19)

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:26:40 AM PST

  •  Potential and confirmed Cabinet Openings? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Ray LaHood - Secretary of Transportation

    Possible Replacements: Kathy Hochul, Richard Hanna, Jerry Costello, Roy Barnes, Gordon Smith, Bob Kerrey.

    Hillary Clinton - Secretary of State

    Possible Replacements: John Kerry, Wesley Clark, Susan Rice, Gary Locke, Joe Sestak.

    Eric Holder - Attorney General

    Possible Replacements: Jennifer Granhold, Thubert Baker, Deval Patrick, Catherine Cortez Masto, Russ Feingold,

    Rebecca Blank - Secretary of Commerce

    Possible Replacements: Rebecca Blank, Byron Dorgan, Kent Conrad, Tom Barrett, Charlie Crist.

    This is unlikely, but I did hear something about this on the local news:

    Timothy Geithner - Secretary of the Treasury

    Possible Replacements: Richard Cordray.

    Tom Vilsack - Secretary of Agricultre (another potential)

    Possible Replacements: Lincoln Davis, Mike Beebe, Brad Henry, Earl Pomeroy, Chet Culver.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:33:41 AM PST

    •  seriously (6+ / 0-)

      fuck Gordon Smith.  Blumenauer, DeFazio, and David Bragdon (former head of METRO) would all be better and more qualified.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:45:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I was trying to think of big bipartisan (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        names, in case Obama wanted to keep in some former Republicans.

        Democrats probably don't want to open DeFazio's district.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:48:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I understand (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          but I can't stand the guy and have no idea, other than as a token, what he'd bring to the table.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:51:29 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Moderate Republican, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, MichaelNY

            pro-infrastructure, experience on the Senate Transportation and Infrastructure committee.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:53:27 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  In what world is Gordon Smith a moderate? (0+ / 0-)

              I get the bipartisan appointment--just not the poor choice.

              •  He was a moderate Republican (0+ / 0-)

                in the real world.

                I tried to find readable DW-Nominate scores for him. I found the following scores here, with a legend here.

                The format of the legislator files is:

                 1.  Congress Number
                 2.  ICPSR ID Number:  5 digit code assigned by the ICPSR as corrected by Howard Rosenthal and myself.
                 3.  State Code:  2 digit ICPSR State Code.
                 4.  Congressional District Number (0 if Senate)
                 5.  State Name
                 6.  Party Code:  100 = Dem., 200 = Repub. (See PARTY3.DAT for a full set of codes of minor and historical parties)
                 7.  Name
                 8.  1st Dimension Coordinate
                 9.  2nd Dimension Coordinate
                10.  1st Dimension Bootstrapped Standard Error
                11.  2nd Dimension Bootstrapped Standard Error
                12.  Correlation Between 1st and 2nd Dimension Bootstrapped Estimates over the 1000 trials (for computing the ellipsoid of estimated points)
                13.  Log-Likelihood
                14.  Number of Votes
                15.  Number of Classification Errors
                16.  Geometric Mean Probability

                105 49705 72 0 OREGON   200 SMITH  GORD  0.217 -0.212  0.015  0.046  0.212  -102.67365  483   41  0.808

                 106 49705 72 0 OREGON   200 SMITH  GORD  0.201 -0.211  0.014  0.039  0.307  -113.29927  533   45  0.809

                107 49705 72 0 OREGON   200 SMITH  GORD  0.185 -0.211  0.013  0.040  0.415  -135.34679  453   64  0.742

                108 49705 72 0 OREGON   200 SMITH  GORD  0.169 -0.210  0.014  0.048  0.488   -73.43461  497   26  0.863

                109 49705 72 0 OREGON   200 SMITH  GORD  0.153 -0.210  0.015  0.061  0.508  -141.79639  515   67  0.759

                110 49705 72 0 OREGON   200 SMITH  GORD  0.137 -0.209  0.017  0.076  0.496  -187.86633  547   82  0.709

                I am having a hell of a time trying to interpret them, but suffice it to say that Smith was quite a lot more moderate than most of the Republicans who were his colleagues in the Senate, though of course nothing remotely approaching a mainstream Democrat.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 06:30:44 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  DW Nominate (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  The first score is all that matters.  In my opinion, anywhere from -.2 to .2 makes one a moderate.  Smith is center-right.

                  19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                  by jncca on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:19:02 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Did he vote for a lot of funding for mass transit (0+ / 0-)

              and bicycle paths, or was he typical of Republicans in screwing cities and voting against transit that helps the poor? I don't care about his experience if he was an enemy of clean transportation.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 06:18:26 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  I can strike a name out of your list (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      aamail6, MichaelNY

      Catherine Cortez Masto will not be offered it or take it. She is the only Democrat who can beat Sandoval in 2014 and she has her eyes right on it.

    •  Remember (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, terjeanderson, MichaelNY

      Remember when Obama picked Judd Gregg to go to the cabinet? Good times.

      That odd choice - since he had an agreement to replace him with another Republican in the Senate and since Gregg and Obama were not close personally - was never explained. Nor was Gregg changing his mind.

    •  I think Dorgan will be Energy Secretary n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY
      •  No. Steven Chu is pretty (0+ / 0-)

        awesome, and I don't think he's stepping down.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:54:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  He should pick someone from the industry again (0+ / 0-)

        If Foster wasn't back in the House, I'd want him. Someone who actually knows the lay of the land.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:10:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I read Geithner has been planning to leave (8+ / 0-)

      as soon as the "fiscal cliff" is dealt with. Word is that Obama wants Jack Lew, and only Jack Lew, to replace him.

      •  Why Jack Lew? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:16:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obama trusts him. Not sure why else. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY
          •  What are his qualifications for the job? n/t (0+ / 0-)

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:45:46 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  You can read about Lew (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, MBishop1, bumiputera

              right here. One thing I've noticed is that, despite some time working on Wall Street, he's far less a creature of the financial industry than some other possibilities probably would be. I'm far from an anti-Wall Street guy, but that's probably a very good thing. He's got extensive experience in government and appears to be quite skilled.

              There's more here, here, and here, with the last one being a very good and very recent article.  

              I'm not sure of what was on or off the table regarding Medicare and Medicaid, in part because I haven't read Woodward's book, but based on this, it looks like Lew played a big role in protecting the program whereas someone less committed to it and more committed to making a deal might have let Republicans trample us.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:45:25 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Thanks (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, MBishop1, bumiputera, bjssp

                He sounds very impressive, and I like this:

                If Lew became Treasury secretary, members of the business sector and political observers say, it would send two messages from the administration to Wall Street and the financial community. First, that they don’t have an ally or one of their own in Washington. Second, that the White House intends to keep close watch over tax policy and international financial decisions.
                Sounds good to me. The big banks and brokerage houses have way too much control on Capitol Hill and other branches of government.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:26:48 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  A couple of things... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, askew, MichaelNY

      Transportation - LaHood might stay on, Pres Obama likes him and his quote about leaving that is often held up here is when was was surprised at the question so gave the response as to not be seen as too presumptuous as to be kept on.  He still could leave to go to the private sector to cash in a bit before he retires, but if he wants to stay he'll be kept around.  If he leaves look for Los Angeles Mayor Villaraigosa to get the spot.  

      Sec. State looks to be a virtual lock for Susan Rice.  The Benghazi issue from the GOP doesn't seem to have any real teeth and Rice didn't have any inside information - she was just repeating what the CIA thought at the time and was put on television as the Admin spox on the issue because the WH and the State Department were focused on the real life fallout.  UN Ambassador to the US shouldn't have been used in that spot and Obama Admin putting her forward knows they put her in a bad spot and will make sure that doesn't block her from her dream job (well one of two, her other is to be a Senator from DC).  

      Attorney General - Janet Napolitano is also mentioned for this spot, she wants it, but she also wants to run for Az Senate in 2016.  I can understand her wanting off Homeland Security as it's a 18 hour a day job 7 days a week but I think Pres Obama has different plans for AG and it will go to Deval Patrick with a focus on voter rights as civil rights issue given the widespread suppression efforts by the GOP.  Patrick served in the Clinton DOJ in the Civil Rights division.  

      Commerce - Fred Hochberg current Import-Export Bank director.  If appointed would be the first openly gay cabinet member.  

      Treasury - Lew is a pretty sure thing.  Cordrey would be interesting since he was recess appointed to the CFPB gig, but Pres used a loophole that got him recess appointed for two years.  I think Cordrey will head back to Ohio eventually and take on Kasich in 2014 or Portman in 2016.  

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:48:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Why Kerrey for Transpo? (0+ / 0-)

      Isn't that a more urban man's game?

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:09:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  GOP unhappy about Moran (6+ / 0-)

    GOP grumbling about Moran being the only choice to head the NRSC. Now their point about fundraising is interesting but note also the slightly pessimistic view of his abilities otherwise that seeps through some of the quotes.
    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    My question then would be: if 2014 sounds so promising, why wouldn't there be an ambitious Senator taking it on to earn chits? What does it say that there isn't?

    •  Because the GOP (11+ / 0-)

      knows the economy is on the upswing and the tea party is becoming an ever more problematic paradigm.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:49:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Tea Party (6+ / 0-)

        I wonder if the TP will continue wreak havoc in the senate primaries. I have a hunch that the establishment really has had enough this time (I mean losing the safe Indiana seat...) and will work very hard behind the scenes to make the TP groups back down. The question is of course whether it will work. In states like LA and NC they could easily pick wingnuts who hand us victory.

        •  In Louisiana they are worried (4+ / 0-)

          Jeff Landry is going to drive away Cassidy or force a two way Republican split going into the first round of the election.

          Landrieu is doubly lucky that both John Kennedy and Jay Dardenne are angling for the gubernatorial race and Bobby Jindal is preparing to run for President. Of course Jindal is doing everything within his power to send his approval ratings in the state into the shitter, to be Cajun about it. He's really starting to piss everyone in the establishment off at this point with his Tea Party pandering. Right now it's just a matter of waiting to see how it comes to a head. And it's very telling that both the top contenders for the 2015 gubernatorial race (if Mitch Landrieu doesn't run), are establishing themselves as anti-Jindal, independent-minded Republicans.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:32:47 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Methinks it's time for a Democratic resurgence (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            in Luzianne.

            Can't think of a nicer thing to pair with the resurgence of New Orleans...

            •  It's going to take a while (4+ / 0-)

              And first we need to put forth independent legislative redistricting. But yeah. I'm about to do a big write up on the state of politics here sometime in the next week or two, but end of the semester work might push it off further.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:09:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  North Carolina (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Ill be laughing so hard if Elmers is the nominee. Kay Hagan will destroy her! #PrettyPleaseWithaCherryOnTop

          Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

          by BKGyptian89 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 03:57:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Ranking the Emerging Races (8+ / 0-)

    Not much to see here.  Shinagawa was impressive.  Taj and Pestka a little disappointing given the reptilian nature of their opponents.  Everything else pretty meh.

    SINGLE DIGIT LOSSES

    1. NY-23 – Nate Shinagawa (-4)
    2. MI-11 – Syed Taj (-7)
    3. MI-03 – Steve Pestka (-9)

    ABOUT RIGHT FOR EMERGING RACES

    4. MI-06 – Mike O’Brien (-12)
    5. VA-05 – John Douglass (-12)
    6. WI-01 – Rob Zerban (-12)
    7. OH-07 – Joyce Healey-Abrams (-14)
    8. SD-AL – Matt Varilek (-15)
    9. FL-13 – Jessica Ehrlich (-16)
    10. AR-01 – Scott Ellington (-17)
    11. NJ-07 – Upendra Chivukula (-17)
    12. OK-02 – Rob Wallace (-19)

    WE CAME, WE SAW, WE SUCKED

    13. NY-22 – Dan Lamb (-22)
    14. MO-04 – Teresa Hensley (-24)
    15. OH-10 – Sharon Neuhardt (-24)
    16. PA-18 – Larri Maggi (-28)

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:53:55 AM PST

    •  Lamb was never prepared for Hanna to be (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem, MichaelNY

      Sane... Who knew he would be up against somebody so rational.

      Great work as always

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

      by CF of Aus on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:31:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Matt Varilek (6+ / 0-)

      really got screwed over by gerrymandering...:)

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 03:51:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Bentivolio and Amash (4+ / 0-)

      Should be Democratic Enemies No. 1 in 2014. Bentivolio is a given, but Amash is still little-loved within his own party and his district became pretty blue, relatively speaking. I hesitate to say State Rep.-elect Winning Brinks, since I hate Berging as much as anyone, but we can't let him go unchallenged.

      Fred Upton also had the worst performance of his career so far, especially in Kalamazoo County, which he only won by 8 votes!

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:19:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ah is Berging a thing now ? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, HoosierD42, bumiputera

        Should that go in the DKE Glossary ?

        Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

        by CF of Aus on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:32:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh definitely. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I also noticed that I said Winning Brinks instead of Winnie, which may have been a Freudian slip on my part.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:34:11 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  You shouldn't have said anything I just (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            assumed that you were inventing terms and nicknames!

            Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

            by CF of Aus on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:38:07 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Havent seen it discussed much in (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, LordMike, lordpet8, askew, MichaelNY

    the post-election analysis, but it's amazing to me how time Romney wasted on "you didnt built that" and the welfare reform waivers. Didnt seem to help the campaign at all.

    •  To borrow from Dave Weigel (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, LordMike, kleinburger, MichaelNY

      I am also still shocked that Obama survived his "can't change DC from the inside" game-changing gaffe.

      It is already funny to think about but in six months we are going to look back at the list of GAFFES! that Obama supposedly made and that the Romney campaign wasted days talking about and laugh and laugh and laugh.
      Remember when Romney retooled his well-received final argument speech to focus it on attacks on "Voting is the best revenge"? Hahahahahahahahahahaa

      •  Conversely, (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Englishlefty, MichaelNY, Inoljt

        I think some of the Romney gaffes may still be remembered.  The taped fundraiser comments ("47 percent") definitely will be; in fact I think that was one of those gaffes that actually impacted people's votes, though I can't say for sure whether it alone cost him the election.

        Also, "Corporations are people, my friend" may live on, even just as a random soundbite.

    •  If you read Romey's comments from his (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, bumiputera

      conference call today, you won't be surprised by why he spent so much time on those 2 arguments. Romney seems to have some real issues with "takers", which is what both those arguments play into. He also seems to hold some racist views that the welfare reform waivers plays into. That might be the only part of his campaign he actually believed in.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 03:26:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's pretty dispiriting to hear (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, bumiputera

        Where did you read about the conference call? I didn't see anything on politicalwire. Has it been covered by mainstream media like the New York Times or Boston Globe?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 06:44:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It was in the NYT (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY, bumiputera

          Here's the link and a quick quote:

          “With regards to the young people, for instance, a forgiveness of college loan interest, was a big gift,” he said. “Free contraceptives were very big with young college-aged women. And then, finally, Obamacare also made a difference for them, because as you know, anybody now 26 years of age and younger was now going to be part of their parents’ plan, and that was a big gift to young people. They turned out in large numbers, a larger share in this election even than in 2008.

          ”The president’s health care plan, he added, was also a useful tool in mobilizing African-American and Hispanic voters. Though Mr. Romney won the white vote with 59 percent, according to exit polls, minorities coalesced around the president in overwhelming numbers — 93 percent of blacks and 71 percent of Hispanics voted to re-elect Mr. Obama.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:51:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, the way the Times covers this (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, askew

            it does seem like Romney has a chip on his shoulder about any kind of break for the non-rich. He still doesn't accept the fact that super-rich people like him get more coddling from the government than anyone else. He feels entitled to that, but thinks everyone else should be made to run uphill for their entire life, with no water break ever. He's more right about why he lost than he realizes, but it's not because he talked about "big issues for the whole country."

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:53:14 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Wow: (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, bumiputera, askew
            But in addition with regards to Hispanic voters, the amnesty for children of illegals, the so-called Dream Act kids, was a huge plus for that voting group.
            I am so glad Romney isn't president.

            http://mypolitikal.com/

            by Inoljt on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:00:53 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  DCCC Non-Targeted Candidates (9+ / 0-)

    who lost by 15% or less.  Would love to see Ewing and Roberts run again.  The rest, I would love to see the DCCC take a good look at better candidate recruitment.

    1. NE-02 – John Ewing (-2)
    2. NC-09 – Jennifer Roberts (-6)
    3. MI-07 – Kurt Haskell (-10)
    4. SC-07 – Gloria Tinubu (-10)
    5. CA-25 – Lee Rogers (-12)
    6. IN-09 – Shelli Yoder (-12)
    7. SC-05 – Joyce Knott (-12)
    8. FL-06 – Heather Beaven (-14)
    9. NC-10 – Patsy Keever (-14)
    10. NC-13 – Charles Malone (-14)
    11. NJ-05 – Adam Gussen (-14)
    12. PA-03 – Missa Eaton (-14)
    13. PA-15 – Jim Daugherty (-14)
    14. VA-04 – Ella Ward (-14)
    15. AR-02 – Herb Rule (-15)
    16. NC-02 – Steve Wilkins (-15)
    17. NC-05 – Elizabeth Motsinger (-15)
    18. OH-14 – Dale Blanchard (-15)
    19. VA-01 – Adam Cook (-15)

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:07:05 AM PST

    •  IN-09 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SouthernINDem, MichaelNY

      I don't understand why we need a replacement in IN-09. Yoder is a spectacular candidate, and I really hope the DCCC gets behind her this time around.

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:20:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  She didn't raise well. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:24:23 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Of Course (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, lordpet8, bumiputera, MichaelNY

          It's hard to raise money in a tough district when no one thinks you have a chance at all. Yoder is our best possible candidate for this district. I can promise you that, and I rooted for Jonathan George in the primary, so I can't exactly say I've always supported her! This district is trending blue over the next decade, so it will be more favorable territory in 2014 than it was this year. With more outside support from the DCCC, she can put this race on the map. I'm also certain that her fundraising will be stronger than last time considering that this will be her second go-around.

          The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

          by AndySonSon on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:35:41 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  IN9 (5+ / 0-)

            Why do you expect it to trend blue? You know the district better than I do, but as I see it the district has 4 regions, only one of which should push the district left:

            1. Indy exurbs. As these grow, they will push the district right.

            2. Bloomington. Growth here would push the district left.

            3. Louisville suburbs and exurbs. I would expect growth here to also push the district right.

            4. rural areas. These have been trending red, although they are likely to lose population.

            I would not expect IN9 to trend blue unless Bloomington booms and everything else stagnates. Am I missing something?

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:57:04 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm not entirely sure, but I get the distinct (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, bumiputera

              feeling the Southern suburbs will trend in our direction. I can't say the same for the others, except parts of the Northern burbs. There seems to be an increased migration of minorities, mainly African American. Remember, not all suburbs stay the same, or even get more Republican.

              20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:12:06 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  You are, of course (4+ / 0-)

      Not accounting for incumbency here. I doubt Roberts would ever get that close again, now that Pittenger is the incumbent (and also super-wealthy). Terry, on the other hand, I think would be vulnerable in 2016.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:22:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I know I already pleaded with you (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, bumiputera, MichaelNY, wu ming

      On the downballot races, but how about doing this trio of comments as a diary?

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:24:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  John Ewing was a great choice. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sapelcovits

      The DCCC chose to focus on other un-winnable seats and let this winnable seat go to waste. Sad.

    •  Sucks (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Sucks to see all of the Michigan races in your lists, because it goes to show how many seats in the state could have been flipped now or would definitely be flipped in the next cycle.

    •  Minor correction (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      our candidate in PA-15 was Rick Daugherty, not Jim. And the DCCC did try to contest this race, but Daugherty beat their preferred candidate in the primary. Oh well...

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:21:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  So Rep. Pelosi stays as minority leader (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingTag, MichaelNY

    Sigh. Guess we can write off the 2014 House elections already.

    Seriously, Pelosi is probably among the top three impediments to winning the House, up there with redistricting and the incumbency factor. Swing voters hate her, she makes tactical blunders like cap-and-trade and "we have to pass the bill so you can find out what's in it" whenever she has control of anything, she's too toxic to actually campaign with Democrats outside of closed-door fundraisers, and the worst part is, there are plenty of Democrats who would be just as progressive, just as dedicated, and way more effective.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:42:49 AM PST

    •  Pelosi (10+ / 0-)

      I don't think that most swing voters care about her one way or the other. I think she hurts mainly with GOP-leaning voters who are open to voting for Dems. She's a drag on people like Jim Matheson who are trying to win red districts, but I'd imagine not so much on purple-district Dems like Barber or Owens.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:50:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Really? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingTag, MichaelNY

        Then why didn't she campaign with Reps. Barber or Owens this year?

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:56:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Campaign with? (15+ / 0-)

          Not usually Pelosi's bag. Her time is better spent raising money than stumping. Oh, and she did raise money for Owens.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:11:00 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  come on (5+ / 0-)

          Why didn't Boehner campaign for GOP candidates? I didn't say Pelosi was a plus for anyone, only that she's only really a drag in red districts. Here in Sac I got to witness Lungren and Bera bombing each other with negative ads in a deep-purple district. Lungren ran a few ads mentioning Pelosi but dropped them fairly quickly, and mostly hit Bera on his support for higher gas taxes.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:13:49 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Who did Boehner campaign with? (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MBishop1, askew, JGibson, Englishlefty, wu ming

          I know you feel strongly about this, but I not sure what, exactly, Pelosi has done wrong. It's not sensible to blame 2010 on her, as opposed to the economy, no matter how many anti-Pelosi ads the Republicans ran. Nor is it right to blame our shitty redistricting results on her.

          From what I remember, she has the respect of the caucus and is a great fund raiser. Given that, and given that they'd make pretty much anyone into The Worst and Most Awful Liberal Elitist Socialist Tax Raising EVAR! x infinity, what are we going to gain by replacing her?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 01:20:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  You don't think Pelosi's tactical mistake (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, bumiputera

            on Cap and Trade and her inapt statement about what was in the health care bill were of any significance? I think they were. Sure, the economy was a much bigger issue, but while I clearly see how Pelosi was indispensable in getting good legislation passed while she was Speaker, I don't see how she helped prevent losses in 2010 or achieved some great number of victories in 2012.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 06:58:32 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  And who could have prevented losses in 2010? (0+ / 0-)

              It's possible that they were bigger factors than I believe they are, but I'll need to some proof that they were.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:01:25 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think no-one would have prevented the Democrats (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico, sacman701

                from losing seats in 2010. I do think certain things could have lessened the number of losses somewhat, though, and while it is impossible to prove precisely what they would have been, it is of crucial importance for the party to try to figure that out, and I'm sure they've studied it a lot.

                They should pay careful attention to campaigns that worked in red states (Senate) and districts (House) in this cycle, in preparation for 2014.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:56:40 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Here's another way to look at it: (0+ / 0-)

                  what do we gain by dumping Pelosi? Will her replacement be as successful in standing up for our values and/or fund raising? Will he or she not be vilified by the right for being liberal?

                  Perhaps we need to reexamine other parts of our campaign processes and/or figure out a better way to defend our leaders.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:48:48 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  You could say that about dumping a baseball mgr (0+ / 0-)

                    of a team that lost 100 games, too. What do they gain by dumping him? Well, what did they gain by having him? If the Minority Leader isn't doing anything very beneficial, why should she keep the position?

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:28:05 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

    •  Umm... no (12+ / 0-)

      Someone like Hoyer would be the worst impediment to house elections.  Hoyer would gladly give cover to the GOP on difficult issues.  Pelosi will not.  She will make them eat their votes.  That's how Newt won back the house in 1994, and how we won the house in 2006.  Nancy knows how to play the game, and it's not by playing nice.

      Also, Pelosi will keep Obama honest.  Most bills in the house are going to require dem votes 'cos of all the loonies in the GOP caucus.  She will make sure we get the best deal possible.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:51:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Then why didn't the Democrats... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Even get close this year, as Sen. Reid expanded his majority and President Obama thumped the Republican nominee?

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:55:33 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  redistricting. (19+ / 0-)

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:56:52 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's one reason, yes (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

            But Democrats failed to win back still-swingy seats against weak or retiring Republicans. In coal country, the Democrats are moribund. Why is that? Could it have anything to do with then-Speaker Pelosi ramming cap-and-trade through the House despite an uninterested Senate?

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:58:47 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  seriously (8+ / 0-)

              most of the districts we were playing in were R+ or were D+ but that was inflated because of Obama's overperformance.  Redistricting was probably the prime factor for why we did not gain seats in Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.  And that killed our chances, regardless of the 2-3 potentially competitive districts in coal areas.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:04:46 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Did seats like WI-07 and WI-08... (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                lordpet8, ArkDem14, KingTag, MichaelNY

                Really become that much more conservative? What about MI-03, or IN-08, or OH-06 -- that much more conservative than the districts they succeeded?

                Every seat counts. We lost a bunch of seats in 2010 because then-Speaker Pelosi took unnecessary gambles; out of hubris, she then decided to stay on as leader, for which even some solid Democrats punished her by casting protest votes. Now Rep. Pelosi has lost again, and once again, she is refusing to step aside and give somebody else a chance.

                Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:22:21 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  so now you're blaming our 2010 losses on her too. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Skaje, askew

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:24:57 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I did at the time (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Generally, when a caucus leader's caucus takes that big a hit, the leader steps aside. Why is this something Republicans understand, but Democrats don't? Is it just that usually when our caucus loses, the leader loses his seat, too?

                    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:28:55 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  It's kind of like being a baseball manager, isn't (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico

                    it? When your team loses 100 games, even if that's because their talent sucks, the manager is generally fired. Where does the buck stop?

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:01:48 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I didn't really want to get into this argument (5+ / 0-)

                      with Sao, but really, it's one thing to say that it was her fault and actually point to reasons why.  It's another to say that since bad things happened, well, we're just going to blame her because she was in charge.

                      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                      by James Allen on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:04:25 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  The buck stops somewhere (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        We had some good recruits this year. Jose Hernandez comes to mind, right there in Rep. Pelosi's backyard. John Ewing. Val Demings. Steve Pestka. Charlie Wilson.

                        We could have won more seats. "We weren't going to take back the House anyway" is a line I've used, but it's not an attitude I want to see when we're considering who the best leader for the caucus heading into the 2014 midterms should be. Pelosi didn't do well enough, and that came after the staggering loss in 2010.

                        I don't have much goodwill left over from 2006 for a leader who has led her caucus to a historic defeat and then to another disappointing showing even as Senate Democrats and President Obama won resoundingly. Maybe it's unfair to blame Pelosi; I personally think she deserves plenty of blame, and that there's plenty to go around, and that it's goddamn embarrassing that she won't just step aside already. Even if it means Minority Leader Hoyer. I just don't care anymore.

                        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:45:53 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  James is right on this (5+ / 0-)

                        This blaming of Pelosi is foolish, she is a misguided choice of scapegoat.  No one lost an election because of her.

                        We'd be looking at the same GOP House Majority today had we had Speaker Hoyer for those 4 years.  And everyone would be pointing fingers at him and insisting it would be different had we had Pelosi.

                        She's led the Caucus well, and we lost the majority because of a deep recession, health care reform pushed by the Administration and the entire party not primarily her, and GOP gerrymanding in 2001-02 which left us very exposed even after great elections in 2006 and 2008.

                        This time we suffered from a second round of gerrymandering that made the wall too high to scale.

                        The baseball manager analogy is misguided, a baseball manager has a helluva lot more control over his team's fate than a Speaker of the House.

                        I'm convinced that we're going to remain a House minority until 2022, and a change of leadership won't change that.  Hopefully in 2018 and maybe 2020 we'll win back a bunch of Governorships to force balanced maps after 2020.

                        People need to understand that Nancy Pelosi is not the leader reprsenting the Democratic Party, the leader is Barack Obama.  If anyone is singularly responsible for losing the House, it's him.  To the extent health care caused that, it's a trade I'm glad was made.  Beyond that, it was really just a deep recession that was inexorable.

                        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:00:24 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I disagree about baseball managers (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          SaoMagnifico, sacman701

                          A manager can't hit, can't field, can't throw, can't run, and can't pitch. He simply decides how and when to use the players he has, and is also responsible for using all of them sufficiently and maintaining a positive attitude and concentration on fundamentals.

                          A Minority Leader can't vote for the electorate and can't vote for her fellow Representatives, but she can fundraise (which Pelosi has done very well), articulate her caucus's case to become the majority (which she hasn't done so well), deal effectively with the majority (which is so hard nowadays that she deserves no blame for all her troubles in that respect), recruit (though a lot of this is delegated to the DCCC Chair), have a major say in who else has a position in the leadership, etc.

                          You can certainly say that a baseball manager has at least one clear advantage: He almost always has a stronger say in hiring his coaches. But he is still subordinate to the General Manager, who can fire his pitching coach, his hitting coach, etc., and who he has to depend on to get players for him. He can help recruit players, but only with the permission of the GM.

                          Now, back to your last point: Yes, I am willing to trade the historic health law for a temporary loss of the House, though I think both of us believe that the economy was the main reason for the loss. But I still think that Pelosi should have at least offered to resign - in 2010, actually.

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:09:32 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Why should Pelosi have offered to resign? (0+ / 0-)

                            The only thing that you seem to think that Pelosi did wrong was poor articulation of Democratic ideas (I don't agree with you, by the way, but that's an aside). No one can really say that Steny Hoyer, Jim Clyburn, or anyone else in the Democratic leadership would have done any better at articulating the Democratic position.

                            Seriously, if that's your only problem with her, then what exactly does her resignation accomplish?

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:01:21 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  She should have offered to resign (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            SaoMagnifico

                            because her party took a historical drubbing, and even if she didn't offer then, now, because they gained only 8 seats.

                            And no, the one thing you isolated is not my only problem with her.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:35:52 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Has any party leader stepped down after... (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            bjssp, NMLib, MichaelNY

                            ...his/her party gained seats?

                            I saw a political reporter ask that question on Twitter.

                            I doubt it's ever happened.

                            And, another smart thing I saw on Twitter this week is why are Democrats eating their own regarding Pelosi when the GOP stays unified behind McConnell?  The Senate GOPers have failed in a massive way for two elections in a row.  But no one demands McConnell's head.

                            This is more typical Democratic handwringing, we eat our own, while the GOP establishment stays unified and no one questions it.

                            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:05:14 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Three elections in a row (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            McConnell was leader during 2007-2008, where they lost eight seats and then had one of their own (Specter) defect to the Democrats.

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:22:59 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  The Republicans are stupid (0+ / 0-)

                            They should shake up their leadership.

                            Democrats are not eating their own. We who are debating here aren't in the House.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:29:15 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                      •  Yes, it is a different argument (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        bumiputera

                        But I think it's a useful analogy.

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:58:07 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                •  What unnecessary gambles? (0+ / 0-)

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:27:10 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Cap-and-trade (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    lordpet8, jncca, flhiii88, MichaelNY

                    The more liberal version of the Affordable Care Act. Etc. Things that were DOA in the Senate and only served to paint then-Speaker Pelosi as a "radical liberal" and stake out the Democratic House caucus as well to the country's left.

                    As I've said -- politically, I'm very close to being in line with Rep. Pelosi. But tactically, her actions were disastrous, and honestly, they've set back policy for years because they contributed to Republicans sweeping the House and state legislatures in 2010.

                    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:30:58 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Oh... (0+ / 0-)

                      So now Nancy Pelosi isn't just responsible for the Democrats losing the House in 2010, but for the legislative losses too? All because of Cap and Trade apparently. Republicans may as well blame John Boehner for losing seats in 2008 and costing them the presidency, and all those senate seats.

                      National Democrats are hostile to coal and want tighter environmental regulations (that's obvious whether Pelosi forced a bill on Cap and Trade or not). The House version of the Health Care bill cost us zero seats. HCR did cost us seats, but that had more to do with both House and Senate Democrats constantly bashing the damn reform measures, passing them, and then wondering why a bill, that it's proponents were constantly bashing, was hurting them. Both of these things were largely outside of Pelosi's control.

                      But we had a wave election that was largely caused by the economy, any extra seats that we lost were largely because of ACA, and mostly because Democrats have a tendency of bashing things they pass as not being good enough (neither of these things were either Pelosi's fault nor would a different Speaker have changed these things).

                      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                      by NMLib on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:48:16 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  As I said upthread... (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        I think this liberal tendency to pretend cap-and-trade and the House version of ACA weren't electoral stinkers and complete tactical blunders -- accentuated by then-Speaker Pelosi's weirdly arrogant messaging on the Hill, which wasn't helped by President Obama's aversion to going out and selling Democratic proposals to the American people -- is incredibly naive.

                        Those bills hurt us with real voters. You can say they were trending away or that we might have lost them in a year like 2010 anyway, but those were real, concrete things they saw (or were at least fed a warped perception of by the right-wing noise machine) and didn't like.

                        Maybe a different Democratic leader wouldn't change anything, but damned if I wouldn't like to give it a shot.

                        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                        by SaoMagnifico on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 01:18:56 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  No, what's naive is assuming... (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          HoosierD42

                          That we really could have held those conservative districts given the fact that national Democrats are hostile to coal. Not to mention that in a lot of those Appalachia districts, the economy was atrocious.

                          I tend to agree that Cap and Trade was, in retrospect, a bad idea for Pelosi to try to pass (but I think it was, at the time, defensible, that was more a fail on Harry Reid and Barack Obama's part than on Pelosi's part IMHO) but I absolutely don't agree with you about the ACA. No one cared about the House version of the ACA, since a bill was actually passed, that was what everyone cared about, and that's what Republicans campaigned against during the election (and they were helped by the fact that the bill's proponents were using stupid language like "this bill isn't perfect, it isn't even that good... but I'm voting for it" and wondering why it was unpopular).

                          Democrats losing badly in 2010 was inevitable when the economy still sucked by Election Day 2010, and many of the districts you've been complaining about us not being able to compete in are districts that were already heavily Republican at the presidential level. How long did you think it was going to take for them to turn on us at the congressional and local levels?

                          Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                          by NMLib on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 01:34:44 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  What about someone like Bobby Bright (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            who represented a non resource-extracting conservative district and actually did quite well in 2010. Why was he forced to pledge not to vote for Pelosi as leader, and even go so far as to speculate that she might die?

                            28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

                            by bumiputera on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:10:05 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  He was forced to do nothing (0+ / 0-)

                            Stunts like that just look stupid to the ones who are already rabid partisans, and the those who aren't, they aren't paying attention.

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:14:48 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                •  MI-03 (4+ / 0-)

                  was ALWAYS going to be a longshot, it's a pretty red district.

                  And yes, we lost a bunch of seats under Speaker Pelosi in 2010.  But you know what?  We also gained control of the House in 06 with her as Minority leader, and gained EVEN MORE seats with her as speaker in 2008.  So why is it that now one horrible election, and one where we didn't do as good as hoped (let's face it, we weren't going to take back the House this year) are enough for her to step down, but 06 and 08 aren't enough for her to stay?  In fact, we picked up more seats in the House than in the Senate.  Should Harry Reid step down because we didn't manage to take AZ and NV?

                  •  A couple things (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    lordpet8, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

                    I don't know where I stand on this. Sao is overstating things, but I see where he's coming from.

                    You can't say because of Pelosi's winning record in 2006 and 2008 is enough because she's become much more well known as now has a record as majority leader.

                    Your last comparison makes no sense. There are around 4 house seats per senate seat, and only 1/3 of senate seats are up for election at any given time. So you can't compare senate pickups with house pickups other than in a broad sense.

                    28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

                    by bumiputera on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:27:02 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I'm not saying (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Englishlefty

                      that 2006 and 2008 are enough.  However, if you look at the five House elections that occurred when she was the Democratic floor leader (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012), only 2004 and 2010 were bad elections for us.  2006 and 2008 were pretty damn good, and 2012 was about the best that could be hoped for after redistricting.  That means 3 out of 5 House elections under her leadership have been at least SOMEWHAT successful.  Not as good as I would prefer, but far from the kind of record that would justify her being made to step down.

                      •  I disagree that this year's results were (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        SaoMagnifico, bumiputera

                        the "best that could be hoped for," and anyone who does believe that should definitely not run the DCCC and probably shouldn't be Minority Leader, either. We need someone who believes these results were unsatisfactory and has a clear plan for how to do better.

                        And I'm a Yankees fan, too. We don't tolerate long losing streaks. I think two sub-par elections are enough, but if you want to give her another term, if the 2014 elections aren't great for midterms, she should definitely be fired or resign then.

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:05:40 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                •  What are these unnecessary gambles? (0+ / 0-)

                  Cap and trade?

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:02:10 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Candidates sucked in many winnable races... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              ...and DCCC funds were not dispersed properly.

              GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

              by LordMike on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:10:58 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  It's a pretty big reason (5+ / 0-)

              That you seem to be giving short-shrift to in order to further the "Pelosi is to blame" argument.

              The playing field isn't nearly as big as people think it was in 2012, nor will iot be in 2014 and right through to 2020.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:12:40 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Come on, Sao (10+ / 0-)

              You really think coal country is our future? That if we hadn't passed cap-and-trade in the House, that we'd be doing awesome there?

              Political Director, Daily Kos

              by David Nir on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:13:42 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  It could have been part of our coalition (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14, GoUBears, MichaelNY

                There's no reason why not. Democrats have brought together blue-collar union workers in other industries with city-dwellers, the highly educated, and people of color to form a working coalition. But coal stands alone among highly unionized industries that is dominated by the GOP.

                Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:19:13 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Good (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Skaje, sapelcovits, NMLib

                  They can have them.  Like much of the GOP's dying coalition, coal too is dying.  

                  Let them demonize the Dems, even without the coal issue dems are doomed in these areas anyways.

                  Essentially the appalachia thing is really like 3 potential seats anyways, so it's a very minor part of the "Pelosi is to blame" argument.  Hoyer wouldn't have helped get a majority, that's obvious.  Unless of course he held up the progressive agenda, which wouldn't have made much sense.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:25:29 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Until it's not just Appalachia anymore (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    GoUBears, KingTag, MichaelNY

                    It's the Mountain West, and it's western New York, and it's Alaska.

                    We were so upset during primary season when we nominated an obvious loser in a winnable district, or fucked up in CA-31 or KS-03 and didn't nominate anyone at all. But now we're looking at KY-06, OH-06, OH-16, PA-12, NY-27, CO-03, and MT-AL, to say nothing of the seats we lost in 2010 that weren't even in play this year and will probably never be in play again, to say nothing of the suburban and rural moderate seats we lost because our candidates were unsuccessful in distancing themselves from the absurdly unpopular Rep. Pelosi, and saying, "Oh well, fuck 'em!"

                    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:35:56 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Good lord (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Englishlefty, MichaelNY, sapelcovits

                      Ohio, Western NY and so on are not lost causes.  My god did Mark27 and Jacoby kidnap and re-program you.

                      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                      by rdw72777 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:39:44 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  well (0+ / 0-)

                        at least Obama is fighting hard for those districts.

                        that's ok though, saving the planet can take a back seat to desperately trying to win a small number of House seats.

                        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                        by sapelcovits on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:30:16 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I certainly don't agree with that line of thinking (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          SaoMagnifico

                          There's a difference between tactical mistakes on the part of the Speaker, in getting the House to vote for something that couldn't pass the Senate, and actual opposition to vital legislation. Sao and I are both vehemently committed to anti-global warming legislation. And actually, speaking for myself, I know that very radical action will be needed to reverse global warming, as we have already seen in Katrina and Sandy and some horrible droughts and deep freezes in Europe some of the deadly results of early stages of the greenhouse effect.

                          The thing is, though, while the president wants legislation to address climate change, he knows he won't get it from the Republican-controlled House, so instead, he will continue to have Executive agencies like the EPA make a difference through regulations like enhanced fuel economy standards. He will not do nothing, although anything he does will be insufficient to stop global warming and might not even slow it.

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:17:34 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                      •  "Lost causes"? (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        No. Lost seats, because in large part Rep. Pelosi doesn't seem to know how to play chess.

                        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:40:05 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  Wow... (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, HoosierD42

                      You're basically citing a bunch of seats that Obama lost (every single last one of them, and most of them he lost fairly badly) but somehow or another Democrats couldn't compete or lost in these seats because of Nancy Pelosi.

                      But it's all Nancy Pelosi's fault because... well... Democrats normally love coal!

                      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                      by NMLib on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:28:18 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  If Democrats running for House... (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        Can no longer overperform President Obama, then we are screwed, because the median House district has a Republican PVI. It's gotten more Republican in redistricting, but it was actually still Republican last decade.

                        The problem is that Rep. Pelosi has steered the Democratic caucus to the president's left, and she has become synonymous with that more progressive agenda. Because she's personally unlikable and easy to vilify (and yes, that is unfair, but it's the way that it is), that agenda itself is easy to portray negatively, and that ends up hurting both the progressive movement and Democratic House candidates.

                        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                        by SaoMagnifico on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 01:21:58 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  We're screwed then, with or without Pelosi (0+ / 0-)

                          How long did you think that this Kabuki theater could possibly go on? We aren't the party of coal, nor are we a conservative party.

                          You only really have two votes that you can cite, and on the House version of the ACA, Pelosi never forced her members to vote for the bill (if anything, Pelosi gave her more vulnerable members the opportunity to vote against a bill that they saw as being too liberal in that instance, so your position there is incorrect).

                          As for actual numbers, per DW nominate, Obama was still easily to the left of the median Democrat in the House, so your talk about Pelosi somehow dragging the House caucus to Obama's left is factually incorrect.

                          Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                          by NMLib on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 01:57:39 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                •  You're completely wrong (5+ / 0-)

                  Coal country hates Obama.  They don't care much about Pelosi.  They hate Obama.  That's everything out there.  A different Dem leader doesn't help.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:02:19 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I think this is probably right (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico

                    It sure makes sense to me. But here's where I'm unconvinced: If Pelosi insisted that the Senate pass cap and trade first and then, because they didn't, never brought it up, might some seats have been saved? We'll probably never know, but it was a tactical mistake, as she has admitted.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:12:39 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  No (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      NMLib, MichaelNY

                      Coal country voters think Obama himself is anti-coal and destroying their livelihood.  They're aware cap-and-trade didn't become law, but they think Obama is throwing them out on the streets just the same.

                      Take away the cap-and-trade bill in the House in the 111th Congress altogether, and the result is the same.  Yes cap-and-trade was a talking point, but I doubt Rick Boucher would've survived anyway.

                      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:00:56 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                •  Democrats *are* hostile to coal... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, sapelcovits

                  Period. Cap and Trade or not, that's not something that was suddenly going to magically not be true. Those areas that we're losing are quite conservative. As the Democratic Party becomes more and more liberal, our losing of those areas becomes inevitable.

                  Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                  by NMLib on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:07:45 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Is it possible some of it could have been delayed (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico

                    through better tactics, though? It is impossible to prove a hypothetical, but things certainly could have been handled better.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:37:35 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I just don't think it would have mattered (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      It was a bad economy and we were holding a lot of seats that were very Republican (most of the coal country seats that we're talking about here were districts that were already voting against us at the presidential level for a long time by 2010).

                      Even if we could have held them through 2010, Obama's performance in many of those areas were so bad that we may have lost a bunch of them in 2012 anyways, especially when you look at how much worse Obama did in many of those districts than in 2008 (Obama was destroyed in Appalachia this time around, and it cost Arkansas Democrats the State House).

                      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                      by NMLib on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 01:13:47 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

            •  The great thing about Pelosi is, (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, MichaelNY

              she'll gladly let Democrats in coal country rip her to shreds if it means they are going to win, much in the same way that the White House and OFA were probably fine to let Manchin blow smoke in West Virginia since he won by 11 points.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:53:04 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Which would be great... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                If it worked. Instead, we have Reps.-elect Barr, Collins, Daines, and Rothfus, and we still have Reps. DesJarlais, Tipton, and Bill Johnson.

                Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:55:46 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  And that's her fault? (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  sapelcovits

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:05:36 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  What do you think the Minority Leader (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico

                    has responsibility for? Do election results not count at all on her record? Let's discuss this in some detail. I may be persuadable.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:19:35 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Only to some degree, I'd think. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      She has no control over redistricting in California, let alone in Kentucky, Tennessee, or any other state, and certainly not with any Republican legislators. She didn't run the DCCC, the DNC, or the DLCC. With the very tenuous and only possible exception in Barr's case, it's not at all clear (to me, at least) what she did in 2006 to, say, 2009 to give us Tipton or Collins. And she wasn't even running the House for the last two years.

                      Could she have done something differently to have made 2010 less bad than it was? Well, maybe. But first, people need to prove that there was something she was responsible for more than any one else in our caucus at the time and more than anyone in her position would be affected the person in question more than someone else. If it sounds like a hard task, it probably is, if only because there's probably little evidence of it.

                      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                      by bjssp on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:57:16 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I don't think it's a hard task to prove this (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        SaoMagnifico
                        people need to prove that there was something she was responsible for more than any one else in our caucus at the time
                        The Speaker set the schedule and pushed the Leadership's legislative agenda.

                        I didn't understand the second part of what you said people need to prove, though. Please clarify it.

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:34:44 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  What besides more stimulus could Pelosi (0+ / 0-)

                          have done to really help incumbents in 2010? Anything regarding cap and trade and coal seems pretty minor, if not completely irrelevant.

                          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                          by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:10:43 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                  •  Whose fault is it? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:40:07 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I don't know. Perhaps nobody's fault? (0+ / 0-)

                      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                      by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:11:01 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

      •  We'll see if you're right (0+ / 0-)

        Part of what you're saying (the second paragraph) is based on the risky presumption that Boehner will show unprecedented reasonableness and risk getting thrown out of his position by the Tea Party in 2014.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:00:18 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I bet 90% of the voting pop couldn't pick her (12+ / 0-)

      out of a line-up.  And those who could are the hyper partisan type who love her or hate her but solid Dem vote or solid GOP vote regardless.  

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:51:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I disagree with pretty much (13+ / 0-)

      Everything you've said, but your last sentence is factually wrong. The next in line is Hoyer. The next in line after that is Clyburn. Only after Clyburn, when you get to the fourth in line (Becerra) do you find someone who could be viewed as reliably progressive. (I'm sure Clyburn's voting record is fine, but remember how he looked out for himself alone in redistricting?) And Becerra is young and not nearly as strong a fundraiser as Hoyer (or even Clyburn) and couldn't possibly mount a leadership challenge at this stage.

      So if Pelosi steps aside now, you get Hoyer. That's really it. End of story.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:53:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Someone in Rep. Pelosi's circle... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Could have challenged Rep. Hoyer. Yes, these things are usually hierarchical, but tell that to the late Jack Murtha.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:54:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  This is not realistic (11+ / 0-)

          Murtha lost to Hoyer despite Pelosi's backing. Hoyer is extremely powerful and has lots of friends—people who owe him favors, because he's brilliant at doing favors for people. Of course, Pelosi is, too, which is why she's leader.

          But Hoyer's no slouch. And the only example we have from recent history of someone in Pelosi's circle challenging Hoyer is that person getting shellacked.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:57:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Rep. Hoyer isn't even that bad (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            GoUBears, flhiii88, MichaelNY, GradyDem

            He's a mainstream liberal who, yes, is a creature of the Maryland Democratic machine and takes a lot of corporate campaign contributions. But he's a mainstream liberal and he's a workhorse.

            Rep. Pelosi is the worst person to have as the face of the party when we're trying to win back a majority. We'd be better off with Minority Leader Charlie Sheen. Pelosi may be progressive and she may work hard, but IMO, when you lose big, you leave. Her failure to win back very many seats this year despite a favorable Democratic year just compounds that for me.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:02:01 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Are you now dropping (12+ / 0-)

              The "another good progressive could have taken her place" argument? In any event, I still disagree with what you've said about Hoyer—as others have pointed out, he's far too disposed toward giving cover to Republicans. Even if his own voting record is decent, his history of public statements and actions do not show the necessary partisan backbone.

              As for Pelosi's "failure to win back very many seats," didn't you just cite redistricting and incumbency as the main reasons that happened? I'm not sure what Pelosi is supposed to do about that. Democrats won a majority of the national House vote. In any normal country, that would have made her Prime Minister.

              Political Director, Daily Kos

              by David Nir on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:07:50 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I do think somebody could challenge Rep. Hoyer (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Then-Rep. Murtha did reasonably well, but fell short because I think he was perceived as a loose cannon, while Hoyer was perceived as having worked very hard to help Democrats win the 2006 midterms.

                Redistricting and incumbency are two reasons Democrats didn't do very well last week. Rep. Pelosi was the other big reason. We lost seats like OH-06 and KY-06 that we should have won; unfortunately, Republicans were able to tie the moderates running in those districts to Pelosi and cap-and-trade.

                Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:14:31 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Pelosi <> Cap/trade (8+ / 0-)

                  As a matter of fact Cap'n Trade doesn't even equal Cap'n Trade.  

                  Coal country thinks the govt is the problem and blames all Dems for coal's decline and never acknowledging the growth of cheaper cleaner natural gas..  It's the equivalent of typewriter repairmen blaming the govt for the age of personal computers.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:20:56 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I think it's completely naive... (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    dc1000, lordpet8, MichaelNY

                    To dismiss how effectively Republicans have used cap-and-trade as a bogeyman.

                    Here's the thing, though: I completely support reducing pollution and helping the environment. I was on board with cap-and-trade. But the Senate wasn't, and President Obama was lukewarm; he was never going to make a big push for it. So Speaker Pelosi forces it through anyway -- forcing several members to cast very uncomfortable votes -- and it goes nowhere, obviously. And suddenly, Pelosi's symbolic act has put the brakes on meaningful action for years to come, because Republicans wringing their hands over why Democrats still had a stranglehold on Appalachia after a generation of major Republican gains in the South suddenly had ammunition.

                    Pelosi didn't lose 2010 singlehandedly, not with cap-and-trade or anything else. But I think it's silly to claim it wasn't a contributing factor. It may seem screamingly obvious to us as a matter of good public policy or even morality, but politically, it was a huge loser, and Pelosi sold it to the public just about as well as she's sold anything else -- which is to say, terribly.

                    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:27:40 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Except it didn't (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Englishlefty, DCCyclone

                      The South was trending away anyways.  Appalachia was the enxt to fall, it just was.  Cap and trade or not, the results wouldn't have differed much in 2010 or 2012.  

                      because people think Cap and trade is ome really repressive law impacting them (it's not obviously even law) and that it is the only thing harming coal.

                      If it wasn't cap and trade, it would have been something else.  Guns, gay marriage, abortion, whatever.   All the issues play against Dems and lead to GOP inroads.  

                      The cap and trade only worked because of the recession and appalachia is full of idiots just like every other part of the country.

                      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                      by rdw72777 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:32:11 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  How can you think that, though? (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        dc1000, GoUBears, MichaelNY

                        Appalachia has completely bolted the party since 2004, when places like eastern Kentucky and southern West Virginia solidly backed Sen. Kerry. Vice President Gore's nomination was the first step; the Democratic House majority dramatically accelerated the process. Without specifically alienating them, we probably could have kept them on our side for a while longer, even if the long-term trend was against us.

                        Coal is huge in some of these places. Natural gas and oil are huge in places, too -- I should know. This is people's livelihoods we're talking about, here. President Clinton held onto Appalachia firmly even while talking about gun control; Democrats nationally have backed off guns wholesale, but now that cap-and-trade is on the voting record of a lot of Democratic representatives (and former representatives, thanks to 2010), coal country is just gone to us.

                        So I'll play the same game, albeit with less pleasure, that I do with Dick Morris. What will Rep. Pelosi fuck up next?

                        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:40:59 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Kerry did not "solidly" win (8+ / 0-)

                          eastern Kentucky and southern West Virginia.  In fact he ran poorly in both, contributing to his landslide defeats in both states.  You have to go back to 1996 for the last time a Democrat posted a big win there.

                          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                          by Mike in MD on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:45:08 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  Appalchia (5+ / 0-)

                          At best represents about 30 or so house seats full of mostly white, gun loving, more evangelical than the nation as a whole, coal oriented people.  

                          While I'm all for the expanded majority, the Democratic party has sought to play on friendlier ground and not fight fate.  they are advancing their goals in the fertile ground and by ceding other ground like Appalachia are ceding Dem control there.

                          I find it odd that you cite Eastern Kentucky and Souther West Virgina going for kerry and thenskip ahead to 2010 cap and trade.  

                          You think maybe the guy who was elected in 2008, and maybe the color of his skin, might have been the downfall in Easter Kentucky and Souther West virginia?

                          Go to this map, vlick "Voting Shifts, and look at the map.  The main area that got 10-15% more Republican from 2004 to 2008 was Appalcahia, pre Cap and trade, pre Moster pelosi.  Specifically, Eastern Kentucky and Southern West Virginia.

                          http://elections.nytimes.com/...

                          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                          by rdw72777 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:49:31 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                    •  please name seats (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      you think we lost due to cap and trade.

                      I'll throw out four: WV-01, KY-06, VA-09, OH-06. I'm being generous here, assuming that it hurt people who didn't even necessarily vote for it.

                      How many others can you name?

                      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                      by sapelcovits on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:35:25 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Well, those four (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        plus ND-AL (oil boom).  That's five, so I guess the low end of five to ten.

                        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                        politicohen.com
                        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                        by jncca on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:23:18 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                •  It was 149-86 (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Englishlefty, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

                  Since when is 37% "reasonably well"?

                  Political Director, Daily Kos

                  by David Nir on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:51:56 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  This is the Hillary argument (10+ / 0-)

              Hillary is super-popular because she has been out of elected office for 4 years.  Since Hoyer isn't the face of the DCCC, then yes he might seem to be above Pelosi's popularity, but is that really apples to apples?

              What makes you think that Hoyer as the face of the Dem party in the house won't be painted the same way as Pelosi?

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:09:31 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  Jim Clyburn and SC redistricting (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        that's particularly galling in light of Gloria Tinubu's better than expected showing.  She, or a putatively stronger Democrat, could have won SC-7 if Clyburn had been willing to part with more African-American or Democratic precincts, which he could have done without putting himself into jeopardy.  Plus the map might have looked neater.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:14:33 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I strongly disagree with your idea (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, MichaelNY

      that swing voters would not vote for the democrat over republican because of Rep. Pelosi.

      However, I think it is time for all three House Democrat leaders to step aside and let new blood in. We, as Democrats, cannot become to party of old men and women. We need to let others have a chance. I also would like to see Israel get replaced. his lack of focus on totally winnable seats, while focusing on un-winnable ones, is unsatisfactory.

      •  Age (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Swamp Cat, bumiputera

        It's not a great idea to always seek new blood when there aren't specific criticisms.  Older members rise to power for a reason usually, and it's not always tenure.  

        Politics is a game and as you can see here, there aren't a lot of people suggesting younger Dem members are ready to play it at the highest level; just that people don't like specific people for one reason or another.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:00:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think the age thing (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          I strongly strongly side with your defense of Pelosi. I do believe the age criticism is a valid criticism but Pelosi's response about starting her career later than men because she had children was the best spot-on reply she could give. I still think Hoyer or Clyburn should make room for younger potential successors.

          •  I'm more referring to Hoyer and Clyburn. (0+ / 0-)

            I think Pelosi has done a phenomenal job as Speaker and Minority Leader. I just can't help but feel that Hoyer and Clyburn are harming the Democratic brand. Neither one of them represent the caucus very well. I would prefer to see some younger blood come forth.

            •  Honestly I don't think they are hurting the brand (0+ / 0-)

              that much. Now if they actually started supporting GOP members in the house for election battles like what one congresswoman did in Florida, then I'd be rather disappointed.

              Hoyer still can raise some good money for us. Maybe I'm the odd guy out here that doesn't really hate the guy. Hell if the dems had a 1 seat majority and had him as speaker I'd take him over another Boehner run house. Sure he's not perfect but ain't boll weevil conservadem either.
              I will leave it at that.

              Overall I wouldn't mind having some fresh blood as it doesn't help that our 3 members have more seniority and are older than Boehner and his team.

              "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

              by lordpet8 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:54:12 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Specific criticisms (0+ / 0-)

          The Democrats need to win more seats; these people haven't enabled that; it's time for a change.

          Maybe that's not specific enough for you, but if you think politics is a game, the rules of major league sports should obtain. Get new personnel and try a new play book.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:28:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Seniority (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The House, like the Senate, functions on a seniority bases. Party leaders have always been above the media age wise, and always will be for as long as that system is in place.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 01:14:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I think the number of voters (12+ / 0-)

      who would vote for a Dem house candidate if only Pelosi wasn't the minority leader is pretty small.  You can't even mention her in conjunction with redistricting as obstacles to a majority.  It's like saying that if you're trapped in a burning building the fire is a problem and so is the fact that you don't have any food.

      Obama won the following states: Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Pennsylvania.  Their delegations: 12-4, 9-5, 18-9, and 13-5.  Added together, 53-23 GOP.  That right there kills Dem chances at a majority, there simply isn't 17 potential more pickups elsewhere in the country.  Go through the House results, there really isn't.

      What's killing us is GOP maps that can only really be overcome in wave years.  The fact that it takes us wave years to do this, whereas the GOP can win in neutral years, is a million times more significant than some theoretical person letting the choice of Dem minority leader be the tie-breaker in their vote.

      •  FL (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        FL is 17-10. Brown, Grayson, Castor, Murphy, Deutch, Frankel, DWS, Hastings, Wilson, Garcia. I think your basic point about gerrymanders is correct, although some of those districts (MI7 and 11, FL10, OH16) will likely be blue later in the decade.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:33:14 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  NC/VA (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Don't forget two more swing states NC (9R-4D - plus we'll lose McIntyre soon enough) and VA (8R-3D).

        So if we're taking the presidential swing states of OH, MI, FL, PA, NC, VA we're at 70-30 GOP and most of that 70 is not going to be winnable outside of a wave.

    •  Pelosi is not the problem (5+ / 0-)

      If it wasn't for redistricting, we'd have a majority in the house right now. I don't think most people even know who Nancy Pelosi is, much less know enough about her to hate her.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:47:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, come on. No one votes on their house (0+ / 0-)

      representative based on who the party leader is. No one.

      And Pelosi has been the most effective Speaker in a generation. She got every piece of legislation through that she wanted and let reps in red areas off the hook for votes as much as possible. Name one other speaker who has been more effective than her in the past 30 years.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 03:28:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  After reading this whole thread (0+ / 0-)

      I feel I should say that there comes a time when you have to realize that you have a semi-irrational vendetta against someone and it might be time to disengage.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 04:35:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Redistricting and House Popular vote (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, sapelcovits

    Monkey cage has a poat regarding redistricting and the house popular vote, which i think is pretty piss poor analysis.

    http://themonkeycage.org/...

    They say that gerrymandering cant be blamed for dems not taking the house, and base that assumption by on "not 2012 lines", which to them would be the 2002 lines, the dems would have only picked up an additional 7 seats.

    They seem to forget that even under the 2002 lines, many states like PA had the GOP draw the lines, giving them an inherent edge, even if some were dummymanders.  Add to that just the fact that if there were fair lines we probably would have had better candidate recruitment for new swing districts, and it makes me wonder whether the folks over there just want to be contrarian Political Scientists.

    I mean, I have a lot of respect for folks over at The Monkey Cage, but even looking at the difference between a bipartisan gerrymander in CA to a fair districts map yielded 5+ seats (maybe even more next cycle with CA-36), and it makes me wonder how many seats we could have picked up in PA under fair lines.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

    by Daman09 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:21:38 AM PST

    •  well Redistricting did play a factor (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, MichaelNY

      but I think that wasn't the whole reason on why we failed to take the house.

      Perhaps I was too optimistic but I really felt we did poorly in the house races. Even my most pessimistic predictions still had us taking 10 seats (above the 8 that we'll get this time around)

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:32:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  only 7 seats under 2006-2010 lines? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, Daman09

      what a joke!  Every time I've tried to see how many we'd have won with those lines I come out with at least the +25 we needed if not more.

      Preliminary analysis I've done suggests we would have gained an additional 12 (bare minimum) to 28 seats under totally nonpartisan maps, meaning I feel pretty damn confident we could have gotten the 17 needed to flip the chamber.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:50:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah that was terrible analysis (6+ / 0-)

      2002 also saw the GOP mass-gerrymander Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida.  Under totally fair lines, we would have a majority of the delegations in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and probably just a bit less than half of Ohio and Florida.  Democrats are self-packed to an extent, but not to the point of only getting a quarter to a third of the seats.

      •  not really Ohio in 2002 (0+ / 0-)

        thanks to major GOP screwup in timing...they needed Dems to agree to a timing override to have only 1 primary that year... so instead of plans to throw dems incumbents together in 3 of the districts...all they were able to do is eliminate Traficant's district.....   The Rs in the state leg got so greedy they took too long to come up with the maps....that didnt happen in 2012 and oh boy is the map bad....

    •  Sorry for typos (0+ / 0-)

      I was on my phone.

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

      by Daman09 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 03:15:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I am happy that Pelosi is staying on (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Skaje, aamail6, MetroGnome

    I don't trust the ideology of anyone who would replace her.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:35:49 AM PST

  •  My take on one of spiderdem's questions. (4+ / 0-)

    Accounting for incumbency and Obama's 2008 results by district, the following races where Democrats lost by about 15 points or less (technically: I looked where the two-party vote share was less than 50 and rounded to at least 43) had the most impressive Democratic over-performances.  The first percentage is the actual D vote share, the second is the predicted one.

    TN    4    Stewart    DesJarlais    44.24%    30.92%
    MN    6    Graves    Bachmann    49.41%    37.83%
    FL    10    Demings    Webster    48.24%    41.13%
    OH    6    Wilson    Johnson    46.63%    39.70%
    NC    10    Keever    McHenry    42.96%    36.49%
    FL    2    Lawson    Southerland    47.26%    41.13%
    SC    5    Knott    Mulvaney    44.41%    38.35%
    MI    1    McDowell    Benishek    49.65%    44.39%
    NC    2    Wilkins    Ellmers    42.55%    37.42%
    NE    2    Ewing    Terry    48.80%    43.92%
    NY    11    Murphy    Grimm    46.69%    42.06%
    FL    16    Fitzgerald    Buchanan    46.38%    42.06%
    NY    23    Shinagawa    Reed    48.06%    43.92%
    TX    14    Lampson    Weber    45.49%    41.94%
    IN    9    Yoder    Young    43.66%    40.21%
    My guess is that NY-11 was actually a strong Obama performance relative to 2008 on top of Grimm's problems.

    On the other hand, these narrow Democratic losses were actually under-performances:

    IA    3    Boswell    Latham    45.47%    51.14%
    IL    13    Gill    Davis    49.76%    54.00%
    PA    6    Trivedi    Gerlach    43.03%    46.70%
    WI    8    Wall    Ribble    44.07%    47.63%
    PA    8    Boockvar    Fitzpatrick    43.35%    46.70%
    WI    7    Kreitlow    Duffy    43.87%    47.21%
    MT    AL    Gillan    Daines    44.64%    47.94%
    MI    6    O'Brien    Upton    43.93%    47.21%
    MI    11    Taj    Bentivolio    46.64%    49.84%
    PA    15    Daugherty    Dent    43.33%    45.78%
    FL    6    Beaven    DeSantis    42.77%    45.15%
    ND    AL    Gulleson    Cramer    43.18%    45.15%
    NC    13    Malone    Holding    42.90%    44.72%
    NV    3    Oceguera    Heck    45.95%    47.63%
    KY    6    Chandler    Barr    48.00%    49.59%
    Although, again, Obama's two-party vote share had a big drop in Montana.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:45:04 AM PST

  •  Isn't McCain being sarcastic with his tweet (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, bythesea, KingofSpades, askew

    on King caucusing with Dems?

    That's how I took it.  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:57:28 AM PST

  •  Obama strongly defended Susan Rice just now (11+ / 0-)

    at the press conference against McCain and Graham.

    Someone said it sounded like something out of "The American President."

    I think she is definitely the  SOS nominee, and I dont know if fighting the nomination is going to be good for the GOP.

    •  Another interesting angle (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, jj32, dc1000, MichaelNY

      Glenn Thrush tweeted a theory that sounds right to me : Graham is very being vocal and offensive about this because he wants to earn some backup anti-Obama cred for his 2014 primary if he does decide to deal on immigration.

      Also pointed out on Twitter: while journos obsess over McCain and Graham, someone like Rubio said he was open to Rice as SoS and defended what she said as "probably what she was told by intelligence agencies".
      McCain does not have the votes in the end.

    •  What is up with Ayotte being so hawkish (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL

      I've watched some of her speeches on the senate floor and she has such contempt and vitriol for Obama on the Bengazi issue and on the sequestration. She basically said Obama is a failure, he doesn't like or respect the troops and that Bengazi is all his fault. Is she just more conservative than I thought or is she running for president in 2016?

      I thought she'd be a moderate Republican or at least as moderate as Judd Gregg. She's easily the most conservative female Republican in the senate. I expected more from her.

      •  She's never been very moderate (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GloFish, JBraden, MichaelNY, GoUBears

        She won in 2010 because of her party label and Hodes sucking.  She's conservative on everything I can think of, but not Tea Party conservative.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:24:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  She won't hold the (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, GoUBears

        most-conservative female title too long, now that Deb Fischer is on her way.

        But no, she's no moderate...which is why I hope NH will tire of her and toss her out in 2016.

    •  I really don't understand the Rice pick (0+ / 0-)

      I know people here think that Democrats can't hold on to Kerry's seat if he were to step down for SoS, but Brown probably got a bigger hit out of this election than people are giving credit for.  IMO Kerry deserves to get to pick, and there's no denying that he is well qualified for the position.  Unless Kerry secretly wanted Defense in the first place, I don't understand the Administration's angle here at all.

  •  On a totally unrelated and entirely ironic note... (14+ / 0-)

    Outgoing Democratic Congressman Howard Berman was the ranking member on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, and, if my knowledge of committee seniority is correct, he will be succeeded by none other than the man who beat him, Democratic Congressman Brad Sherman.

    18, FL-07 (home) MD-07 (heart). UCF sophomore, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

    by tqycolumbia on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:22:16 AM PST

    •  Which is good, considering Berman was neoconish (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, MichaelNY, wu ming

      and no wonder both got desperate to win.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:26:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's a shame (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      That Republicans took away non-voting delegates' ability to even vote in committee, because Eni Faleomavaega (D-AS) is actually ahead of Sherman in seniority on Foreign Affairs.

      But yes, Berman was an AIPAC-type, which is enough for me not to be sorry to see him go.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:39:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Georgia the nation isn't far enough away for West (4+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:28:37 AM PST

  •  Check out MattTX's diary on the Cuban vote (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, MichaelNY

    http://www.dailykos.com/...
    The precinct comparisons say the most.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:36:36 AM PST

  •  Schadenfreude (5+ / 0-)

    If you wanna know which defeat from last week stung the House GOP the most, here is a tidbit for you:
    They still invited Mia Love to participate in the House leadership elections even though she conceded and lost.

  •  Utah gerrymander (4+ / 0-)

    apparently some folks at RRH think the R's chickened out here with the maps. I'd say I disagree as I think they drew a the tougher map for Matheson  (Pizza slices to split the vote instead of the donut) I just think the R's underestimated the political willpower of Matheson

    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

    by lordpet8 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:43:38 AM PST

    •  Yeah, even we thought he would lose. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:46:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  They were making the same argument (7+ / 0-)

      about Tennessee Republicans "chickening out" when they took the opposite approach, essentially conceding Jim Cooper a district instead of cutting it up (and making nearby GOP districts more Democratic.)

      Then again, consistency isn't really a strong suit here.  They thought it was a great thing to get a Democratic-drawn Maryland map up for voter review (it passed anyway) and whined about the same thing being done to a GOP-drawn map in Ohio (where a potential redraw was voted down.)

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:56:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  He'd sooner lose a primary than a general (5+ / 0-)

      Not that I want to give them ideas, but they would have had a better chance of getting rid of Matheson by making his district only 5-6% McCain and hoped that the Salt Lake City liberals ousted him at convention or primary, which actually could happen. A Republican could easily win a seat like that against a liberal.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:05:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I totally agree (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

        I honestly thought the Republicans would remember his close primary win in 2010 and draw him a bluer district, but I guess the Republicans didn't want to take the chance of have a slightly vulnerable R seat

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:10:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      they still left Utah with two districts that went about 30% for Obama in 2008, and two that went about 40%.  Purely on that metric, they could have improved the map so that every district was about 35% Obama (2008), and not give Matheson any obvious choices.  Still, I suppose that would have required reconfiguring the map too much for the other incumbents to accept.  But they could have done a bit better.  They simply hoped that they could present Matheson with a lot of unfamiliar territory and beat him, but they still gave him a relatively blue district for Utah.

    •  If they love Mia love so much (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      why didn't they have a prized recruit/future star run for the open seat?

      •  Because she didn't live there. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        A suburban district she could run in, the open 2nd was going to have a lot of rural area.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:31:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  this was an open district. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        Matheson was the incumbent in name only.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:13:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  How the GOP Destroyed it's moderates (4+ / 0-)

    Found an interesting article about the decline of moderates and rise of conservatives in the GOP.

    http://www.tnr.com/...

    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

    by lordpet8 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:56:25 AM PST

    •  Thanks. That's a very good article (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wu ming

      I liked all of it, but here are some very cogent descriptions:

      What remains of “moderation” within the party has taken on a definition very distinct from the meaning that it held originally. Unlike the moderate and liberal Republicans of yore, today’s “moderates” generally identify themselves as conservative. They are simply less so. The most recent wave of ideological re-making, undertaken since 2002, has seen a series of primary challenges largely replacing conservatives such as Bob Inglis, Richard Lugar, and Robert Bennett with even more implacably conservative Republicans.
      By the time the rightward migration of the party has finally halted, the definition of Republican “moderate” will likely have corroded beyond all recognition. Already the extremism of the party has advanced to such a point that its most fervent elements are identified less by their ideology—which is nearly impossible to distinguish any more from that of the mainstream—than by the degree to which their detachment from reality departs from paranoia as a mere figure of speech and approaches actual, clinical paranoia. “Radical” Republicans believe that Obama has created death panels, may have been secretly born overseas, and is plotting a United Nations invasion. The “mainstream” Republicans believe in goldbuggery and a massive plot by climate scientists, and deny the dramatic rise in income inequality in America.
      One slight demurral:
      When a tape emerged recently of Romney regaling donors with a fever dream that 47 percent of the country had grown irrevocably dependent on government, it later emerged that he had drawn the notion of the moocher half-nation from conversations with Arthur Brooks, the president of the American Enterprise Institute. Here, then, was the most moderate candidate in the party’s presidential field, in conjunction with the president of its most prestigious think tank, producing a bizarre worldview of plutocratic hallucination.
      I disagree that Romney was the most moderate candidate in the Republican primaries this year. Huntsman was the most moderate one, overall, and the most reality-based in what he campaigned on.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:00:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  UT-04 and the Latino vote: (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, bumiputera, askew, MichaelNY

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:01:24 PM PST

  •  NY State Senate. (9+ / 0-)

    Jesus Christ. I have never been a proponent of term limits. Never. But it might just be needed there as screwed up as that place is.

    •  Yeah, fun fact. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      My dude is moving into Felder's district, and showed me pictures he took of "Romney/Felder" conservative party posters.  Should be interesting.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:45:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  From looking at individual races (5+ / 0-)

      it's apparent that even if the GOP somehow wrangles out another majority session, their days are numbered.  They had a bunch of close calls on other seats as well, and could have been in danger of getting put so far into the minority that not even the IDC could help them out.  What we are seeing is the limits of gerrymandering, where their efforts to spread themselves so thin to keep their majority has left a serious chunk of their caucus winning with under 60% of the vote.

    •  True but (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      a lot of the nonsense and corruption and bad behavior seen in the state Senate amount basically to a representation of New York's chaotic undealt with problems and unresolved conflicts and corruptions and other social distortions.  

  •  LA County precinct results (8+ / 0-)

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:45:35 PM PST

    •  Thank you so much! (0+ / 0-)

      I saved that map as a favorite. And my precinct in Artesia was 67 percent Obama to 32 for Romney. Are there maps like this for past elections? I would love to see if Obama improved in my neighborhood.

      29, M, Swingnut, CA-38 resident. Chairman of the DKE Ginger Left-handed caucus. Huge Angels, Lakers, Bruins, Kings, Galaxy fan. Follow me on Twitter: @Artesialove

      by uclabruin18 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:42:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  An interesting feature of King's decision (10+ / 0-)

    is that is will make for the third time since 1950 that all but one state on the northern border will have a Senator in the Democratic caucus. Counting the sixteen states that border Canada and/or the Great Lakes, Idaho will be the only one without a Dem/Dem Indy. This happened from 1/3/65-1/3/67 and from 1/3/77-11/7/78, without vacancies considered. At fault were Vermont and Pennsylvania, respectively. Remarkably, Montana is the only one to have had a Democratic Senator since 1950 (they've always had one or two since the since the 17th Amendment).

    Here are the number of years (out of 64) that each state hasn't had a Dem/Dem Indy Senator:

    New Hampshire 41
    Pennsylvania 40
    Idaho 39
    Alaska 28
    Indiana 28
    Maine 27
    Vermont 25
    Ohio 17
    New York 17
    Minnesota 12
    North Dakota 10
    Wisconsin 7
    Washington 4
    Illinois 3
    Michigan 1
    Montana 0

    ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

    by GoUBears on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:46:25 PM PST

    •  Amazing re Montana! (4+ / 0-)

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 03:53:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Only two GOP Senators in the past century (5+ / 0-)

        Burns served two terms, and Zales Ecton was a one-termer mid-century. Awesomely, the opponent he defeated was named Leif Erickson.

        Here's a list of seats that one party has had at least a half century's dynasty:

        LA Landrieu 3/4/1883
        MT Baucus 3/4/1913
        KS Roberts 3/4/1919
        RI Reed 1/3/1937
        KS Moran 1/3/1939
        ID Risch 10/14/1949
        UT Lee 1/3/1951
        WI Kohl 8/28/1957
        WV Rockefeller 11/5/1958
        WV Manchin 1/3/1959
        HI Inouye 8/21/1959
        ND Conrad 8/8/1960
        TX Cornyn 6/15/1961
        WY Enzi 11/7/1962
        CT Blumenthal 1/3/1963
        While all of the GOP seats look pretty safe, I find it rather incredible that all Dem seats besides RI, HI and CT would be tossup or lean R if open. Thurmond/Graham's SC seat will join the list in late 2014. Many reigns as long as LA Dems have been destroyed since 1994.

        ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

        by GoUBears on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 05:12:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  estimates of county PVI changes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits

    in Oregon.  If I don't mention it, it hasn't changed enough.

    County: '04/'08 - '08/'12
    Baker: R+20 - R+22
    Benton: D+11 - D+13
    Columbia: D+3 - D+2
    Crook: R+18 - R+19
    Curry: R+8 - R+10
    Gilliam: R+15 - R+14
    Harney: R+26 - R+27
    Hood River: D+10 - D+12
    Jefferson: R+8 - R+9
    Josephine: R+11 - R+12
    Lake: R+27 - R+28
    Lincoln: D+8 - D+9
    Malheur: R+25 - R+24
    Morrow: R+17 - R+19
    Multnomah: D+24 - D+26
    Sherman: R+14 - R+18
    Umatilla: R+15 - R+16
    Union: R+16 - R+17
    Wasco: R+0 - R+1
    Washington: D+6 - D+7.5
    Yamhill: R+5 - R+4

    or a map of the counties which experienced shifts:
    Photobucket

    Based on this I'd say there's a very good chance OR-01 and OR-03 moved up a point, but the other districts probably not much change.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 03:17:02 PM PST

  •  PV: Obama crosses 63 million (10+ / 0-)

    Up 3,630,000

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 03:46:25 PM PST

  •  Game-over in AZ-02? (11+ / 0-)

    Pima counted its last early ballots today, and Barber won this batch by a massive 23%! He only leads by 4% in the county, so that's huge. He expanded overall lead to 943 votes.

    Why this is close to game over: blue Pima will now start counting its provisional ballots -- and there are 27,000 in the whole county, so something like 16500 in the district.

    But even if those didn't exist, there are only about 2,400 total ballots left in Cochise... so McSally would need to win them by 40% just to erase Barber's current lead, let alone deal with what's coming with the provisionals.

  •  FL-18: Patrick Murphy got inducted to the (6+ / 0-)

    New Democrat Coalition today, per FB.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 04:24:27 PM PST

  •  Photo of all the new Democratic Senators: (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    madmojo, lordpet8, ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

    livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/photo-harry-reid-with-incoming-dem-senators

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 04:28:52 PM PST

  •  Just wanted to apologize again (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje, bythesea, bumiputera

    for my inadvertent dickishness yesterday.

    You guys are my support network, I wouldn't want anything to jeopardize that.

  •  CA Supermajority (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCal, jj32, redrelic17, MBishop1, Daman09, MichaelNY

    Though we've always assumed we had it there is still one outstanding race AD-65 (my old hometown district) that hasn't been officially called by the outlets. Quirk-Silva (the Democrat) has consistently gained in each days counting and after today's update now leads by 3,348 votes (2.6%) over the incumbent Chris Norby with only about 10,000 mostly provisionals remaining. In DKE magic number speak that's means Norby would need nearly 70% of the remaining vote.

    http://www.ocvote.com/...

    Very proud of Orange County Democrats and Democrats across the state. Now let's not screw this up.  

    •  I think someone (lordpet8?) told me that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      no incumbent has lost in the California Legislature for quite some time.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 05:46:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I was really surprised by this win (4+ / 0-)

      I met Quirk-Silva at an DPOC event a few months ago, and chalked her camapign up as one that probably wouldn't pass the 50% mark, especially with the elimination of third party candidates in the new top-two primary system.  Damn, was I wrong.

      I think a major factor that played into Quirk-Silva winning was that her opponent really didn't take her seriously.  I mean, this was the guy's website for christ sake.  This looks like a third grader created it.

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

      by Daman09 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 05:50:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think we were all surprised (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, wu ming

        by this. When the lines were drawn I figured we'd have a shot at this one when Norby was termed out at best and maybe even a couple cycles later than that, but Quirk-Silva was a great recruit.

        I haven't been in the district for awhile now so I don't know how the campaign transpired, but she was an elected official with a base in the part of the district that was always going to be less favorable for a Democrat and she raised money quite well so if Norby was sleeping on this (and I agree with you he was) that's political malpractice.

        Based on my reading of conservatives, many of them fooled themselves into believing that the June primary numbers were going to be a mostly accurate reflection of the November electorate which I think in a Presidential year was absolutely delusional.

    •  CA 2/3 (4+ / 0-)

      The winning by CA legistlators of US House seats will start triggering a series of resignations and special elections which could delay the actual 2/3 majority for 8 months.

  •  Apparently, Deval Patrick today met (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, MichaelNY, bumiputera

    with Kathleen Sebelius and Michael Oren, the Israeli ambassador to the US. I think this was in DC. Maybe suggests a cabinet appointment for him, and not Kerry?

  •  The "gifts" comment from Romney (14+ / 0-)

    gives more weight to the argument that they really  thought they were going to win the election.

    Someone this clueless and bitter on why he lost shows he was going to win.

  •  Obama (16+ / 0-)

    made 7 new appointments to the courts today.

    Elections. They have consequences. :)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

  •  Random observation (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY

    State Treasurers have had some bad luck as of late. I might be missing some, but out of the thirteen that tried to move up in from the 2010 to 2012 cycles only two succeeded, both for Lieutenant Governor spots in Alabama and Mississippi.

  •  AZ-02: I believe Cochise County is done (9+ / 0-)

    McSally did net 234 votes tonight in Cochise, but she still trails by 709 votes overall.

    And I believe there are no more ballots left in deep red Cochise. [4659 new ballots were added last night and tonight, and based on numerous recent news stories (like this one: http://www.svherald.com/...) that should mean it's done.] So this one is now pretty much really done: Pima County is voting Barber, and only provisionals remain -- about 16K of them -- there really should be no way McSally can net 709 votes there.

  •  very strange that Gloria Negrete McLeod (4+ / 0-)

    won her race against Rep. Baca but nobody has updated her wikipedia page to reflect that a week later. Talk about low interest?

    •  Race wasn't on anyone's radar (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      until Bloomberg dumped money in a couple weeks before Nov. 6, but even then few people started watching it. Even the articles that talk about needing a special election for new congressman Juan Vargas' old state senate seat don't mention that we'll need a special election for Negrete McLeod's as well.

      Happy to see Baca go, and his son lost an assembly bid as well. Hopefully both the Baca's and Mack's are finished.

  •  Ponnuru says the problem was the party (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 03:01:56 AM PST

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