I've long invested in the idea of redistricting reform and hope to have some sort of national unilateral disarmament. But more so, I've wanted to see what would happen if it was implemented nationwide. Would the dems be better off or would it be close to a wash? All PVI is based off the 08 elections. In light of the recent election, its interesting to see how this map would turn out as opposed to the actual results. This is all of the midwest as well as Kentucky, West Virginia and Oklahoma which adds up to 108 seats. If the picture is too big, the link is posted above the pictures for a better view
Color Code is as follows (unless stated otherwise):
3 Dark Magenta
7 Dark Gray
8 Slate Blue
10 Deep Pink
12 Cornflower Blue
13 Dark Salmon
15 Dark Orange
19 Yellow Green
78.8 Bl, 9.9 Wh, 8.6 Hisp, 1.3 Asn, 1.3 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This takes in the south-side of Chicago and is one of the safest democratic seats in the country. Both Rush and Jackson live here but this would be Rush's district.
77.8 Wh, 16.1 Bl, 3.1 Hisp, 1.7 Oth, 1.1 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This was Jerry Costello's district. The PVI here is misleading as there are more "hard D" voters as opposed to the suburban chicago districts.
45.3 Wh, 39.6 Bl, 11.9 Hisp, 1.6 Asn, 1.5 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is the southern Cook County suburbs. No incumbent lives here, although it does take in some of Jackson's old district. My guess is that if this map was in place, Jackson would run here, resign shortly after January, and a special election would be called. He's probably too old now, but I think Marty Russo could pull a Rick Nolan and run here, since it contains almost all of his old district.
68.0 Wh, 15.2 Hisp, 9.2 Bl, 5.9 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is a Will County based district. No one lives here, but I assume Kinzinger would run here. This would be a likely R district for Kinzinger. He appears to be a favorite of the GOP leadership.
47.0 Hisp, 23.1 Wh, 21.9 Bl, 6.9 Asn, 1.0 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: The 5th is an amalgamation of the Gutierrez and Davis districts. Davis nearly retired in 2010, so I suspect that he would retire and defer to Gutierrez.
64.9 Wh, 16.1 Hisp, 14.3 Asn, 2.9 Bl, 1.7 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: Although his home was drawn out of this district, this contains the bulk of Peter Roskam's district. From 07-12, Roskam was a conservative in a swing district who was able to hold down the fort. The district is slightly more democratic leaning than the 2000s IL 6, but he should be OK unless a 1974 style meltdown occurs.
51.5 Wh, 32.6 Hisp, 12.2 Bl, 2.3 Asn, 1.3 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: Although the 6th is the descendant of the Henry Hyde district, the 7th is actually the most similar to the district he represented in the 1970s. The 7th is mostly a diverse amount of suburbs west of Chicago. This is Dan Lipinski's district and the seat is safe for any democrat.
43.8 Wh, 36.6 Hisp, 14.7 Bl, 3.4 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: The 8th is the near north side district and belongs to Mike Quigley. Safe D.
56.8 Wh, 19.0 Hisp, 11.9 Asn, 9.5 Bl, 2.6 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is Jan Schakowsky's district which is the far northern part of Chicago as well as all of Evanston. This is probably the most Jewish congressional district in the midwest and a very liberal one overall. Schakowsky I'm guessing will retire sometime this decade and be replaced by another liberal dem.
65.9 Wh, 17.7 Hisp, 8.3 Asn, 6.2 Bl, 1.7 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: The 10th is/was Bob Dold's district which is the northern lakefront suburbs of Chicago. Dold ran a very close race in 2012 and might have won under this map.
90.3 Wh, 5.0 Bl, 1.9 Hisp, 1.3 Oth, 1.2 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is an open seat that contains some of the old 19th. This is the Egypt part of Illinois that is more evangelical/socon than the rest of the state. Safe R.
76.5 Wh, 15.4 Hisp, 4.6 Asn, 2.0 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: The 12th is the northwestern Chicago suburbs seat. Much of this area for years was represented by Phil Crane who was one of the most conservative people ever to serve in congress. From what I remember, he lost re-election in 04 for a similar reason that Stark did this year: he had lost touch with the district. He was replaced by Melissa Bean who then lost in 2010 to Joe Walsh. Walsh is almost as conservative as Crane was and is known for somewhat of an abrasive personality. Considering Romney likely won this district by 5-10 points, my guess is Walsh would have won this district. It's also possible that under this map, he would have gotten primaried.
70.7 Wh, 13.3 Hisp, 9.8 Asn, 4.5 Bl, 1.7 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: The 13th is the DuPage district. It contains the home of three incumbents, but this would be Biggert's district. Biggert is an inoffensive backbencher and would be safe under this map. Biggert is 75 and likely would have retired sometime this decade anyways
66.5 Wh, 24.0 Hisp, 5.5 Bl, 2.6 Asn, 1.3 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is a collection of some exurbs and mid sized cities west of Chicago including DeKalb, home of NIU; as well as Aurora, which is a mix between German Catholics and Hispanics. Hultgren's home is in the 14th, but he would definitely run here. His voting record is fairly conservative, but this would probably be a lean R district.
80.3 Wh, 8.8 Bl, 5.8 Hisp, 3.2 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This district is the east central part of the state. Tim Johnson is an unpredictable congressman with a libertarian streak to him. He was probably going to retire anyways and this would be a safe district.
79.2 Wh, 10.5 Hisp, 7.0 Bl, 1.7 Oth, 1.5 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This would be Don Manzullo's district. He's easily the most conservative member of the delegation. His bringing home of the bacon is probably the reason he's been able to coast to re-election despite his voting record. The PVI might be a bit misleading too as it is an ancestrally republican district. I'm pretty sure Barry Goldwater either won or came close to winning this district.
89.0 Wh, 6.5 Bl, 1.9 Hisp, 1.5 Oth, 0.9 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This district is similar to the one John Shimkus represented in his first three terms. His home is in this district, so I'm not sure whether he runs here or if he runs in the 19th and Schilling decides to run here (and it contains the southern and eastern parts of his old district).
85.9 Wh, 7.0 Bl, 3.8 Hisp, 1.7 Oth, 1.4 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: Schilling and Schock are put together in the same district. My guess is that Schilling would defer to Schock as he has a term of seniority and is a probable future Ways and Means chairman. As I said above, Schilling would then run in the 17th (similar to the old 20th).
Race: 64.6 Wh, 18.8 Bl, 13.9 Hisp, 1.4 Oth, 1.2 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This would be Visclosky's district. This is a collection of industrial cities in the northwest corner of the state. Safe D.
91.0 Wh, 4.3 Bl, 2.3 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.6 Asn, 0.2 Oth
Comments: This is the district Mike Pence vacated to run for governor. The district is a mixture between a lot of very GOP rural areas balanced out by some small cities (Anderson) and college towns (Muncie). Whoever replaced him in real life, would probably win here.
80.6 Wh, 8.8 Hisp, 7.3 Bl, 1.9 Oth, 1.2 Asn, 0.3 Nat
Comments: This is the Michiana district, anchored by South Bend and Elkhart. Despite the PVI, it has been represented by democrats before including Donnelly, Roemer and Brademas. My guess is that the 2012 result in this district would have been similar to the actual result with Walorski winning by a narrow margin. I've heard that Walorski is kind of an Allen West type and I think the democrats should run someone like Roemer the next time around.
85.1 Wh, 6.4 Bl, 5.1 Hisp, 1.7 Oth, 1.6 Asn, 0.3 Nat
Comments: The thing about Indiana that is different from Illinois is that there is no north-south divide. The Northeast part of the state is more conservative (or at least republican leaning) then the Southern part of the state. I've never been there but I've heard that Fort Wayne has a large evangelical/hard right contingent. This would be a safe district for Marlin Stutzman, who strikes me as an obnoxious young turk.
53.0 Wh, 32.1 Bl, 10.4 Hisp, 2.6 Oth, 1.7 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is the Indianapolis based district. This is Andre Carson's district and is the most democratic district in the state.
87.1 Wh, 3.8 Hisp, 3.6 Bl, 3.6 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: We've heard that there's a circle of ignorance surrounding Milwaukee, well this one is Indianapolis's own version of that. This is Dan Burton's district and he is retiring this year. This is a Safe R district and my guess is that Brooks would have won the primary here and obviously the general election. She'll probably be just as conservative as Burton, but nowhere near as obnoxious as he was.
89.2 Wh, 4.7 Hisp, 2.5 Bl, 1.9 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: The 7th is the West Central part of the state. It is similar to the 2nd in the sense that it is a lot of rural republican areas kept honest by some mid sized cities (Terre Haute) and college towns (West Lafayette). Rokita doesn't live here but he would probably run here.
90.7 Wh, 4.2 Bl, 2.5 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.8 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is the Copperhead/Butternut district of Indiana. This part of the state is culturally similar to rural Kentucky or rural Tennessee. Buschon would probably be fine here but it's still the bloody eighth. There are a lot of blue dog types here who usually vote republican for president, but would vote for an Ellsworth or Donnelly type of democrat.
92.4 Wh, 2.6 Hisp, 1.8 Asn, 1.7 Bl, 1.3 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This has a similar PVI to the 8th but it is a lot more polarized than the 8th. The district is mostly a lot of blood red area that is only roughly R+7 due to the presence of Indiana University in Bloomington. This district doesn't have as many dixiecrat type of voters here as the 8th and Todd Young would probably be safe in this district.
88.2 Wh, 4.7 Hisp, 3.3 Bl, 2.0 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is Dave Loebsack's district. His home in Mount Vernon is drawn into the 2nd under this map, but he would hop across the county line into Iowa City. He would be OK under this map, but if he continues to get below 60%, I'd support primarying him.
91.0 Wh, 3.2 Bl, 2.9 Hisp, 1.4 Oth, 1.1 Asn, 0.3 Nat
Comments: This is Bruce Braley's district. He is sort of a Sherrod Brown type populist democrat. He probably has a slightly better hold on this district than Loebsack does on his. Its possible that Braley gives the seat up in 2016 if Grassley retires.
86.4 Wh, 5.9 Hisp, 3.7 Bl, 2.3 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This was Boswell's district and the same thing would have happened here with Latham coming in to challenge him and then defeating him. I really wish Boswell had retired as he was a weak incumbent. Obama I think won this district by a margin similar to his 08 margin. I would hope that one of the state senators (Gronstal, Hatch, McCoy) might challenge Latham.
89.1 Wh, 6.4 Hisp, 1.7 Asn, 1.3 Bl, 1.1 Oth, 0.4 Nat
Comments: This would be Steve King's district. This district is the most socon out of the four districts as I think it was the only one to vote against retaining Judge Wiggins. This is kind of the "ground zero" for the socon movement in Iowa, particularly in the dutch counties in the northwestern part. Names like Bob VanderPlaats, Cary Gordon (demagogue pastor), and Pizza Ranch (local franchise that bankrolls socons) all hail from this district. It's probably too republican to win, but it would at least be nice to see King give up his seat so he can lose to Harkin and thereby removing the tumor from the Iowa delegation.
79.2 Wh, 14.3 Hisp, 2.7 Bl, 1.8 Oth, 1.5 Asn, 0.4 Nat
Comments: The most republican district in the state. Huelskamp is an idiot, but he fits the district like a glove (not saying the people in the district are idiots, but they do share his ideology).
84.2 Wh, 5.6 Hisp, 4.6 Bl, 2.8 Oth, 1.5 Nat, 1.3 Asn
Comments: This is the Lynn Jenkins district. It gets slightly less GOP leaning as it adds in Lawrence, but it would still be somewhat of a safe district. Jenkins from what I know is very conservative but she had a reputation before being in congress as somewhat of a Kassebaum type republican.
73.6 Wh, 11.3 Hisp, 8.7 Bl, 3.8 Asn, 2.2 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: With the removal of Lawrence, this is a point more republican than the 2000s old KS 3, but it could still be won by a democrat in a bad republican year. If Roberts retires in 2014, Yoder may give this seat up to run for the senate.
75.7 Wh, 10.8 Hisp, 6.7 Bl, 3.1 Asn, 2.7 Oth, 0.9 Nat
Comments: Wichita at one point was known as the abortion capital of America, which I believe attracted a lot of pro-life activists. This helped unseat nine term congressman Dan Glickman in 94. I'm not sure if Pompeo is as reactionary as Tiahrt was, but this should be a safe district for him.
87.0 Wh, 7.5 Bl, 2.9 Hisp, 0.7 Asn, 0.2 Nat, 0.1 Oth
Comments: This is Ed Whitfield's district. This used to be a very democratic district, but now its a safe republican one.
89.6 Wh, 4.7 Bl, 2.8 Hisp, 1.0 Asn, 0.3 Nat, 0.1 Oth
Comments: The second is a combination of some traditionally democratic parts of western Kentucky and other areas further east that have always voted republican. But since both areas now vote republican, the district is safe for Brett Guthrie or any republican.
70.0 Wh, 21.0 Bl, 4.4 Hisp, 2.3 Asn, 0.2 Nat, 0.2 Oth
Comments: This is an urban district based in Louisville. This should be a safe district for Yarmuth.
92.4 Wh, 2.7 Bl, 2.4 Hisp, 0.9 Asn, 0.2 Nat, 0.1 Oth
Comments: The district has a lot of "hard R" voters in the suburban areas between Louisville and Cincinnati. I forgot the name of the new congressman from this district, but he'll be safe here.
95.9 Wh, 1.6 Bl, 1.1 Hisp, 0.3 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: The fifth is an amalgamation of the old Carl Perkins, which traditionally has been very democratic and the old Siler/Carter/Rogers district, which was very republican. But since the democratic margins in the Perkins district has declined, this has become a safe republican district for Hal Rogers or for any republican running for the seat when he retires.
83.0 Wh, 8.6 Bl, 4.7 Hisp, 1.8 Asn, 0.2 Nat, 0.1 Oth
Comments: This was Ben Chandler's district and I thought he would win this district as the democrats in Lexington and Frankfurt are more likely to be straight ticket voters. I would assume under this map, the same thing would happen with Barr unseating Chandler in an upset.
82.2 Bl, 7.8 Wh, 6.9 Hisp, 1.9 Oth, 1.0 Asn, 0.3 Nat
Comments: This district is entirely within Detroit, and probably the last census where this can be done. My guess is that Conyers probably retires sometime this decade. Is it possible that Clarke runs again?
85.4 Wh, 4.6 Bl, 3.9 Asn, 3.8 Hisp, 2.1 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: This is Wahlberg's district. He is the most conservative member of the delegation and would be DOA under this map. I think Lynn Rivers would run here.
84.8 Wh, 7.0 Bl, 4.1 Hisp, 2.3 Oth, 1.4 Asn, 0.4 Nat
Comments: This is an open seat and similar to the one Howard Wolpe represented in the 80s. Since Huizenga has no place to run in this map, he might just run here.
80.5 Wh, 8.2 Bl, 7.3 Hisp, 2.0 Oth, 1.5 Asn, 0.5 Nat
Comments: Huizenga and Upton both live here, but Huizenga would probably run in the 3rd since he's a freshman and Upton has been around since the 80s. This is a safe district for Upton.
78.4 Wh, 8.9 Hisp, 8.1 Bl, 2.1 Asn, 2.1 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: This is a heavily Dutch district and the dutch tend to be very conservative (one wonders why weed is legal in Amsterdam). Amash is sort of a nutter, but this would be a safe district for him.
82.8 Wh, 6.8 Bl, 5.3 Hisp, 2.5 Asn, 2.1 Oth, 0.4 Nat
Comments: This is Mike Rogers' district. If he runs here, he's probably a goner. My guess is that he would run in the Oakland based 8th district.
80.6 Wh, 13.1 Bl, 3.3 Hisp, 1.9 Oth, 0.7 Asn, 0.4 Nat
Comments: This is the thumb region and the district is based in Flint. This was Kildee's district, but with him retiring, this district would (and is) represented by his nephew, Dan. This is a safe democratic district.
82.0 Wh, 8.1 Bl, 4.3 Hisp, 3.5 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: This is the northern and more republican part of Oakland County. This would be Gary Peters' district. My guess is that Rogers would ditch his old district and run here.
79.2 Wh, 11.3 Bl, 5.2 Hisp, 2.5 Oth, 1.5 Asn, 0.4 Nat
Comments: This is the downriver district. This is obviously a safe democratic district, but Dingell will probably retire soon.
86.9 Wh, 5.6 Bl, 4.1 Hisp, 1.7 Oth, 0.9 Asn, 0.8 Nat
Comments: This is the "Up North but not quite UP" district. Dave Camp should be safe here, but the district could be won by a dem if Camp retires. Camp is term limited on Ways and Mean and may retire in 2014.
92.3 Wh, 2.7 Nat, 1.8 Oth, 1.6 Hisp, 1.2 Bl, 0.6 Asn
Comments: This is the U.P. district. My guess is that under this map, Benishek will have a tough race almost every cycle.
85.5 Wh, 5.5 Bl, 4.6 Asn, 2.3 Hisp, 1.8 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is the Macomb county district. Macomb County is known for being the quintessential "Reagan Democrat" county. Miller should be fine here, but the seat could be won by a democrat if she retires. The district was represented by David Bonior for 26 years.
75.5 Wh, 13.0 Bl, 6.2 Asn, 3.0 Hisp, 2.1 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: This is the northwest Wayne county suburbs district. This could be won by any competent democrat, especially against a nutter like Bentovilio.
70.5 Wh, 21.4 Bl, 3.5 Asn, 2.4 Oth, 2.0 Hisp, 0.3 Nat
Comments: This takes in Highland Park, Hamtramck, the Grosse Pointes and the southern parts of Macomb and Wayne. The reason for the salient into HP and Hamtramck is because this will probably be the last time one can draw an all-Detroit district. This is a safely democratic district, but it's likely Levin retires this decade.
89.0 Wh, 4.6 Hisp, 2.4 Asn, 2.2 Bl, 1.5 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: Kline lives in this district, but my guess is that he runs in the 2nd and Walz runs in this district.
81.2 Wh, 5.8 Asn, 5.5 Hisp, 4.8 Bl, 2.3 Oth, 0.4 Nat
Comments: Kline probably runs here.
84.4 Wh, 5.1 Bl, 4.9 Asn, 3.1 Hisp, 2.2 Oth, 0.4 Nat
Comments: This is Erik Paulsen's district. Should be a safe republican district.
70.5 Wh, 10.0 Asn, 9.2 Bl, 7.0 Hisp, 2.7 Oth, 0.6 Nat
Comments: This is the St Paul district. Safe D.
64.8 Wh, 15.8 Bl, 9.0 Hisp, 5.8 Asn, 3.4 Oth, 1.2 Nat
Comments: This is the Minneapolis district. Safe D.
90.6 Wh, 4.8 Hisp, 1.6 Bl, 1.4 Asn, 1.1 Oth, 0.4 Nat
Comments: a clean map also gets rid of Michele Bachmann. Here old district is divided up between the new 3rd, 6th, 8th, 4th and 7th districts. This district resembles the MN-02 of the 80s and 90s. I'm not sure if Bachmann would run here or would just retire.
91.4 Wh, 3.3 Nat, 2.2 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.7 Bl, 0.7 Asn
Comments: This is the Northwestern part of the state. This should be a safe seat until Peterson retires.
92.4 Wh, 1.8 Nat, 1.7 Oth, 1.5 Hisp, 1.4 Asn, 1.1 Bl
Comments: This is the iron range district. Compared to the actual 8th, it loses some territory to the west and expands south into Bachmann turf. My guess is that under this map, it would have been an even closer race between Nolan and Cravaack.
46.8 Black, 46.0 Wh, 2.6 Hisp, 2.4 Asn, 2.1 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: City of St Louis + Black areas of St Louis County = Safe Democratic district. Next.
District 2 (Cyan)
88.9 Wh, 4.8 Bl, 2.5 Hisp, 1.8 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is the northeastern part of the state and includes the "Little Dixie" region. This district is ancestrally democratic, but Luetkemeyer should be fine here.
87.1 Wh, 4.9 Bl, 3.6 Asn, 2.6 Hisp, 1.5 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is an amalgamation of the Carnahan and Akin districts. Carnahan may have had a chance of Akin had he not ran for the senate, but a less offensive republican like Wagner would easily win.
90.7 Wh, 3.2 Bl, 3.0 Hisp, 1.7 Oth, 0.8 Asn, 0.5 Nat
Comments: Hartzler from what I know was a terrible candidate but still managed to bring down a 17 term incumbent. Unfortunately, Skelton was probably the last democrat who could hold this district and will probably remain republican barring a scandal.
64.6 Wh, 22.1 Bl, 8.4 Hisp, 2.5 Oth, 2.0 Asn, 0.4 Nat
Comments: Cleaver had a surprisingly tough race in 2010, only to (I think) run ahead of Obama in 2012. He would be even safer under this district.
89.4 Wh, 3.9 Bl, 3.4 Hisp, 1.7 Oth, 1.2 Asn, 0.4 Nat
Comments: This is a very rural district except for some parts of the KC exurbs and St Joseph. This should be a safe district for Graves.
89.8 Wh, 4.3 Hisp, 2.1 Oth, 1.6 Bl, 1.3 Asn, 0.9 Nat
Comments: This area is most similar to south central Kentucky and eastern Tennessee in the sense that the politics of this area has pretty much been unchanged since the civil war. The 1974 almanac of american politics writes that "Because the people here did not share the Confederate sympathies of many central Missourians, they became staunch Republicans and stayed that way. The Republican inclination has been strengthened of late by two things: first, a distaste for the social programs pushed by the Democrats of the 1960s, and second, the urban-bred conservatism of many of the area's recent arrivals." This is obviously a safe district for Billy Long, though he has health issues and may retire this decade. If he retires, the winner will almost assuredly also be a republican.
91.6 Wh, 4.4 Bl, 1.6 Hisp, 1.4 Oth, 0.6 Asn, 0.4 Nat
Comments: The 8th district, compared to the 7th, is not nearly as republican due to a historic allegiance to the south and a bigger labor presence. But it is still an R+13 district. Jo-Ann Emerson, the least conservative republican in the Missouri delegation and representative of this district, is pretty much safe for life. Clinton did win this district both times, but it's difficult to see a democrat winning this even if she does retire.
85.9 Wh, 6.8 Hisp, 2.2 Bl, 2.1 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 1.2 Nat
Comments: This is the Fortenberry district. Safe R.
73.3 Wh, 10.9 Hisp, 10.4 Bl, 2.7 Asn, 2.3 Oth, 0.5 Nat
Comments: This is Lee Terry's district. I thought Obama winning this was a fluke, and while he did lose this in 2012, he did do a lot better than Kerry in 04. Terry seemed to have another close call in this district. This is a republican leaning seat, but certainly not out of reach. The democrats will/would almost certainly contest this seat over the next four cycles.
87.1 Wh, 9.8 Hisp, 1.0 Oth, 0.8 Nat, 0.7 Bl, 0.6 Asn
Comments: Uh yeah. Even Barry Goldwater probably won this district. Safe R.
64.9 Wh, 28.2 Bl, 2.6 Hisp, 1.9 Asn, 2.2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: Chabot is pretty far to the right and with Obama winning this seat in 2012, he likely would have lost. It could still be won back by a more moderate republican though.
88.8 Wh, 6.9 Bl, 2.0 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.6 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This would be Tim Ryan's district. It's mostly a collection of working class small cities. As a pro-life, catholic, populist/protectionist democrat, Ryan is as good a fit for this district as possible. He can hold this seat for as long as he wants, but he's on the shortlist for potential statewide candidates.
76.8 Wh, 16.9 Bl, 2.3 Hisp, 2.2 Oth, 1.6 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is a Dayton (Montgomery County) based seat. This would have been a dem leaning seat in the 90s, but population loss in the area has made it necessary to expand out into blood-red territory. This would be a safe district for Turner and possibly competitive if he retires.
90.1 Wh, 3.4 Asn, 2.6 Bl, 2.1 Hisp, 1.7 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: Jordan and Tiberi are drawn into the same district. I'm not sure what would have happened if this map was in place. My guess is that one of them would run for the senate in 2012. Anyways, Jordan strikes me as a smarmy little pr--- and I would hope that Tiberi could dispose of him in a primary.
86.7 Wh, 6.6 Hisp, 4.1 Bl, 1.6 Oth, 0.7 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: Basically the less industrial parts of northwest Ohio. Latta is very conservative but has the name rec going for him (his father represented this area for 30 years) and the district is more republican than the PVI indicated (Obama ran far ahead of what dems usually get here in 08). He would probably be ok in this map.
92.8 Wh, 2.2 Bl, 1.8 Asn, 1.5 Hisp, 1.5 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is the south central part of the state. Basically the areas on the Ohio River east of Cincinnati. There is some demosaur influence here, but it is more than drowned out by the ultrarepublican Cincinnati suburbs such as Clermont and Warren county. Under this map, I'm guessing Schmidt would have lost renomination, just like she did under the actual map.
46.0 Bl, 43.1 Wh, 6.7 Hisp, 2.1 Oth, 2.0 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: Half of the district is in the city of Cleveland and the other half is in the suburbs. The seat belongs to Marcia Fudge, and is the most democratic district in the state.
89.0 Wh, 5.0 Bl, 2.6 Hisp, 1.7 Oth, 1.6 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This of course is John Boehner's district. It is the safest republican district in the state and is a collection of rural German small towns and some of the northern Cincinnati suburbs (Butler County).
77.6 Wh, 12.9 Bl, 5.8 Hisp, 2.1 Oth, 1.3 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is a Toledo-centered district. This is a safe district for Kaptur and safe for almost any other democrat who runs here, should she retire.
93.2 Wh, 3.0 Bl, 1.7 Oth, 1.1 Hisp, 0.7 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is the southeastern corner of the state. My guess is that either Johnson or Gibbs runs here. It should be a safe republican district.
89.3 Wh, 5.6 Bl, 2.5 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.8 Asn, 0.1 Hisp
Comments: This would be LaTourette's district. He would be fine here, but he retired and I'm guessing this would be a pickup opportunity since it moved a few points to the left compared to the actual OH-14.
60.1 Wh, 29.1 Bl, 4.6 Hisp, 3.1 Asn, 3.0 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This takes in the northeastern part of Franklin County. This contains a lot of Tiberi's district, but his home is put in the 4th district, where he would almost certainly run. This is a safe democratic district.
85.9 Wh, 7.4 Bl, 3.1 Asn, 2.1 Hisp, 1.4 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is a suburban Cleveland seat. My guess is that Kucinich would be [mostly] safe in this district.
84.4 Wh, 10.3 Bl, 1.8 Oth, 1.7 Asn, 1.6 Hisp, 0.2 Nat
Comments: The 14th is an Akron based district. Sutton would probably be safe here.
83.6 Wh, 8.1 Bl, 3.6 Hisp, 2.3 Oth, 2.1 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: The 15th contains the more republican parts of Franklin County (such as Upper Arlington) and some rural republican areas from the old 7th. Austria and Stivers are merged here. My guess is the same thing would have happened as it actually did with Austria retiring and deferring to Stivers. Safe R
91.7 Wh, 4.5 Bl, 1.7 Oth, 1.4 Hisp, 0.5 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This would be Renacci's district. As the district shifts west, it is even more safe a republican district.
66.9 Wh, 9.7 Hisp, 8.8 Bl, 7.0 Nat, 5.5 Oth, 2.1 Asn
Comments: Tulsa is a deeply conservative noveau riche oil town and home to a lot of religious organizations like Oral Roberts University. Unlike other parts of Oklahoma, this part of the state has been voting republican for sixty years. This is a safe district for Sullivan.
67.1 Wh, 17.3 Nat, 7.2 Oth, 4.2 Hisp, 3.6 Bl, 0.6 Asn
Comments: This is a district that has gone off the deep end in recent memory. It probably came close to going for Dukakis and might have actually gone for him. Boren was the congressman from this district and would have been safe, but with him retiring, this seat would have been an R pickup, just like it was in real life.
73.2 Wh, 9.8 Hisp, 5.8 Nat, 5.7 Bl, 3.9 Oth, 1.7 Asn
Comments: The 3rd is a very rural district and the northern part of the state (the wheat counties) are ancestrally republican and is similar to Kansas culturally. This district is held by Frank Lucas, chairman of the Ag committee, and is safely republican.
75.9 Wh, 7.9 Nat, 5.9 Hisp, 5.1 Oth, 3.5 Bl, 1.7 Asn
Comments: The 4th is a combination of some rural, ancestrally democratic areas in the Red River region and some straight ticket R areas in Cleveland County. The presence of a major university (OU), apparently doesn't affect the politics much. This is Tom Cole's district and a safe republican one.
60.2 Wh, 14.8 Bl, 14.7 Hisp, 4.3 Oth, 3.1 Nat, 2.9 Asn
Comments: This is the least republican of all the districts but has a lot of "Hard R" suburban voters and the seat has been held by a republican since the 1970s. This is a safe district for Lankford or almost any other republican.
94.5 Wh, 1.3 Oth, 2.7 Bl, 0.8 Hisp, 0.5 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This would be McKinley's district. He isn't that conservative (he got a 64 from ACU in 2011) and fits the district well. How the democrats do in this district has to do with how good of a candidate they recruit and timing since it is only going to get tougher from here on out.
92.2 Wh, 3.2 Bl, 1.9 Hisp, 1.5 Oth, 1.0 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is S.M. Capito's district. She is also a fairly moderate republican and can win this district indefinitely. If she runs for the senate, it could still be picked up by a democrat, but the clock's ticking.
92.7 Wh, 4.2 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 0.9 Hisp, 0.6 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is the most democratic of all the three districts and the only one still held by a democrat (this district probably voted for Mondale). Rahall's been in office since he was 27 years old and has faced few problems save for a weak performance since in 1990 after he got a DUI (or something like that). My guess is the result would have been similar under this map with this district swinging heavily toward Romney and Rahall winning with a reduced margin. Apparently, he needs to amend relations with his constituents.
81.4 Wh, 9.6 Hisp, 5.3 Wh, 1.7 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: His home was drawn out of this district, but Paul Ryan would likely run here. It's a republican leaning district but in light of his closer-than-expected race in 2012, he could possibly lose during a Republican presidency midterm.
83.5 Wh, 6.1 Hisp, 4.6 Bl, 3.5 Asn, 2.0 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: This was Baldwin's district but with her now in the senate, it is Mark Pocan's seat. The district was republican for awhile in the 90s but it seems to be a safe democratic district.
93.8 Wh, 2.3 Hisp, 1.5 Asn, 1.0 Oth, 0.8 Bl, 0.7 Nat
Comments: This is the "driftless area" and is probably the most liberal rural congressional district in the midwest. The district was held by a republican for all but six years before 1997. But its still hard to see this district going for a republican, even if Kind gives the seat up to run statewide.
91.1 Wh, 4.0 Hisp, 2.2 Asn, 1.3 Bl, 1.1 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: This district contains the bulk of what many on Daily Kos call "the circle of ignorance." Obviously, its a safe republican district. I just hope there isn't someone even more abrasive than Sensenbrenner to replace him.
44.1 Wh, 34.0 Bl, 15.5 Hisp, 3.4 Asn, 2.3 Oth, 0.6 Nat
Comments: This contains the city of Milwaukee and some of its suburbs. Safe D.
90.9 Wh, 3.9 Hisp, 2.2 Asn, 1.5 Bl, 1.1 Oth, 0.5 Nat
Comments: This is Tom Petri's district. Petri seems to be the most likeable out of the WI GOP delegation. I think he's still waiting for the day when the republicans finally give him his Ed and Labor chairmanship. Its possible the democrats could pick this up when he retires, although it is an ancestrally republican district.
92.4 Wh, 2.0 Asn, 1.8 Nat, 1.8 Hisp, 1.4 Oth, 0.7 Bl
Comments: The 7th contains the northwestern part of the state and is similar to the 3rd. My guess is that under this map, Duffy would probably narrowly win in 2012. Under this map, he'd be bound to lose eventually (or at least I'd hope)
89.2 Wh, 4.1 Hisp, 2.5 Nat, 1.7 Asn, 1.3 Oth, 1.1 Bl
Comments: This is another district where Obama outperformed the generic dem by quite a bit. The difficulty with this district is that there is a large German population, which in Wisconsin, are probably on the order of 60% republican. Part of that is that there are few German jews here and a lot of German catholics instead. In the past, they had a reputation of being isolationist and vaguely antisemitic. Appleton was also the home of Tailgunner Joe and right wing congressman Toby Roth. My guess is that this would be a Lean R district with Ribble.
So if you've read all this, how many seats (out of 108) would the democrats have won here in 2012