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• CA-52: Democrat Scott Peters' lead continues to climb over incumbent Republican Brian Bilbray, now reaching 1,899 votes as of Monday evening, up from 1,334 on Sunday. San Diego County reports 260,000 ballots left countywide, which should translate to about 60,000 ballots in CA-52. Bilbray's magic number has climbed accordingly to 51.6 percent, up from 50.5 percent a day earlier night. The math, however, is working against Bilbray in two ways: The number of votes left uncounted is decreasing, and not only is Peters' raw vote margin increasing, but his share of the vote (now 50.4%) is as well. Bilbray's magic number is now a full two percent higher than the share he's gotten to date (49.6 percent), and late ballots are looking to be slightly more Peters-friendly. This one's loooking very close to done, folks.

9:14 AM PT: CA-07: Awesome! It's freshman orientation, Capitol Hill-style, which means all newly-elected soon-to-be members of the House are down in DC, learning the ins and outs of Congress, from an insider's perspective. And just which insider is leading these 80 or so bright-eyed newcomers through their orientation program? None other than GOP Rep. Dan Lungren, chair of the House Administration Committee, who is currently trailing Democrat Ami Bera by 1,779 votes in a race that still hasn't been called. Somehow I'm guessing Lungren might be a little distracted these next few days....

9:20 AM PT: Pres-by-CD: It's that time again! Soon we're going to start crunching the 2012 presidential election results for all 435 congressional districts. But, as always, this is a huge task, and we're going to need your help, which is why we're crowdsourcing the effort once again. So click on over and see how you can get involved. Your assistance is greatly appreciated, and it'll help us produce an important data set for political analysts as quickly as possible.

9:30 AM PT: LA-02: Here's another one of those "closer than expected" House elections, but with a twist. Freshman Dem Rep. Cedric Richmond won re-election with "only" 55 percent of the vote in Louisiana's dark blue 2nd Congressional District... but his nearest opponent took just 25 percent, so it's not like he was in any danger. For one thing, as you know, Louisiana conducts "jungle"-style elections that are very similar to the top-two primaries used in California and Washington: All candidates compete in a single general election (there's no primary), and if no one gets over 50 percent, the two top candidate, regardless of party, proceed to a December runoff. So Richmond was running in a field of five, and indeed, the second-place finisher, Gary Landrieu (a cousin of Sen. Mary Landrieu and NOLA Mayor Mitch Landrieu) is also a Democrat.

The other issue, though, is redistricting. Louisiana lost a seat in reapportionment, and Republicans (who by-and-large controlled the line-drawing process, though LA politics is very weird) sought to pack as many Democrats as possible into a single district, the 2nd. The led them to create a district which stretched 100 miles from New Orleans all the way to Baton Rouge. (The old 2nd used to be entirely NOLA-centric.) It also left Richmond, who after all had served just a single term, with a seat where almost 40% of the constituents were new to him. That kind of phenomenon has played out in many races across the country, leading to lots of incumbents pulling in lower vote shares than you'd otherwise anticipate. I expect, though, that things will "get back to normal" next cycle.

9:40 AM PT: MI-08: This could lead to a potentially interesting special election: The Great Mentioner is, of course, already talking about possible replacements for now-former CIA Director David Petraeus, and one name that's come up is Michigan GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Rogers is chair of the House Intelligence Committee and is also a former FBI agent himself. If Rogers were to be tapped, that would open up a district which actually went for Barack Obama by a 52-46 margin over John McCain in 2008. (2012 numbers are not yet available.) Any thoughts on possible candidates on both sides who could succeed Rogers?

9:56 AM PT: AZ-02: There's still one uncalled race in Arizona, in the state's 2nd District, where Dem Rep. Ron Barber's lead over Republican Martha McSally now stands at 512 votes. Unlike almost all other overtime races, where one side's lead has steadily grown, Barber's edge has bounced around, and indeed, on election night, he was even trailing. Still, as the total number of outstanding ballots shrinks, you'd always rather be the guy in the lead.

10:00 AM PT: ME-Sen: Even Angus will have to finally make a decision: The Senate's leadership elections for the 113th Congress will be held on Wednesday, and independent Angus King—who has steadfastly refused to say which party he'll caucus with—now says he wants to be able to participate. (Previously he'd said he wouldn't make up his mind until after Thanksgiving, which makes me wonder if he wasn't even aware of when the leadership vote was scheduled for.) Anyhow, if Angus somehow wants to join the demoralized and deep-in-the-minority Republicans, he's welcome to do so: 54 is still greater than 46.

10:12 AM PT: AZ-01: Republican Jonathan Paton, whose race was called last week, has now finally conceded to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick.

10:45 AM PT: MA-Sen: I'm not really going to get into it at this point, since it's all too speculative, but Aaron Blake runs down what would happen if Sen. John Kerry were tapped as the next Secretary of Defense (or perhaps, Secretary of State). Massachusetts is one of the few states which requires special elections to fill Senate vacancies (as you'll recall from the original Scott Brown debacle), and the law also allows the governor to appoint a temporary replacement pending such an election. Blake has a list of possible candidates, if you're interested.

10:51 AM PT: NE-Gov: As expected, state Sen. Mike Flood has formally declared his candidacy for the Nebraska governor's mansion, which will be open in 2014 because current Gov. Dave Heineman is term-limited. Flood, the Speaker in the state's unicameral legislature, will face (at the very least) Lt. Gov. Rick Sheehy—who has Heineman's backing—in the GOP primary, but there are a number of other potential candidates. On the Republican side, the Great Mentioner cites state Sen. Charlie Janssen, Attorney General Jon Bruning, and state Treasurer Don Stenberg. And while this would be an exceptionally tough race for Democrats, a few names are circulating as well, including state Sen. Steve Lathrop, who says he's considering a run; University of Nebraska Regent Chuck Hassebrook and Lincoln Mayor Chris Beutler are also possibilities.

11:03 AM PT: MI-11: Here's a neat little story on Dave Curson, the Democratic union official who defeated Republican Kerry Bentivolio in the special election for the final two months of ex-Rep. Thad McCotter's term, even as Bentivolio was beating another Democrat, Syed Taj, in the race for the full term that starts in January. One detail I liked: For his seven-week sojourn, Curson will occupy McCotter's "palatial suite in the Rayburn building," and fellow Michigan Rep. John Dingell will lend him some staff members for the duration. Curson also says he "doubts very much" that he'd run against Bentivolio in 2014, but isn't ruling it out.

11:25 AM PT: Incidentally, Curson was sworn in on Tuesday, along with two other special election winners: Democrat Suzan DelBene in WA-01 and Republican Thomas Massie in KY-04. One other special election winner, Democrat Donald Payne, Jr. of NJ-10, will be sworn in later this week.

11:32 AM PT: NH-01: Reid Wilson reports that Republican state Sen. Sharon Carson, who was just re-elected last week, is already interested in taking on Dem Rep.-elect Carol Shea-Porter in 2014.

12:19 PM PT: FL-18: Jesus. So now the state of Florida is getting involved in the Patrick Murphy-Allen West race. The Florida Department of State, which oversees statewide elections, is sending three officials to St. Lucie County, which just conducted an unorthodox partial recount that saw 799 total votes disappear compared to earlier tallies. (Apparently, the proper term for this effort was a "retabulation," not a recount, which is an entirely different matter under state law.) In a statement, a DoS spokesperson said: "We are concerned whenever there is a question about the accuracy of results." Great.

And on top of that, a hundred West supporters have taken to protesting outside the St. Lucie elections board offices, carrying signs accusing god-knows-whom of "voter fraud" and berating elections chief Gertrude Walker as "Dirty Gertie." The Brooks Brothers riot this is not, though (video here).

Fortunately, though, an end might be in sight. On Nov. 20, the state's formal Election Canvassing Commission will meet to certify all election returns. If the election is certified for Murphy, that will narrow West's options. And Politico's Alex Isenstadt reports that some unnamed and unquoted "Republican officials" "privately acknowledge that West has few legal avenues to pursue and that, absent a major shift in the trajectory of the vote count, will soon come under pressure to concede." We need to get clarity on the actual vote, for sure. But there really doesn't seem to be any shot for West, though if anyone will drag this out needlessly, it's him.

12:31 PM PT (David Jarman): Governors: PPP is out with a helpful summary of where incumbent governors facing re-election stand, in terms of approval and matchups against generic opponents. This isn't new data, but it's from their last round of 2012 pre-election polling (where it got little attention in the face of the 2012 races), so it isn't stale either.

They break them down into three categories: the ones in a whole lot of trouble (four GOPers: Pennsylvania's Tom Corbett, Maine's Paul LePage, Florida's Rick Scott, and Ohio's John Kasich), those looking favored for now (Michigan's Rick Snyder, Wisconsin's Scott Walker, and Iowa's Terry Branstad, plus Connecticut Dem Dan Malloy), and those looking pretty safe (Minnesota Dem Mark Dayton, Colorado Dem John Hickenlooper, and Nevada GOPer Brian Sandoval). And if you're jonesing for your next poll injection, they say they'll resume 2013/14 cycle polling after Thanksgiving.

12:39 PM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: There's quite a lot of agreement that Texas is on a trajectory toward being a swing state, simply given the high rate of non-white growth there... we know it's a long-term project, though, but how long? Well, the Houston Chronicle set their numbers-crunchers to figuring that out, and the answer is: not as quickly as we'd like, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel, somewhere around 2024.

That's when their straight-line extrapolation finds that Democratic presidential votes will reach parity with Republican ones, based on expecting current population and political participation trends to continue unimpeded; they see the Democrats getting 5% closer in 2016 and 2020, closing the current 15% gap by 2024. (Of course, any number of variables could change that, such as the GOP making better inroads among Latino voters, or the Dems getting better participation rates out of Latino voters.)

12:38 PM PT: NRCC, NRSC: Looks like the GOP is just about done figuring out who will lead its two federal campaign committees next cycle. Oregon Rep. Greg Walden has circulated a letter asking his colleagues to support him as NRCC chair, which seems like a done deal. The only person who might have thwarted him was current chair Pete Sessions of Texas, who said back in September he might seek a third term on the job. But Sessions and Walden are apparently tight, and so it looks like bossman is clearing the way for his deputy to succeed him.

Meanwhile, on the NRSC front, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman is reportedly pulling his name from consideration. That pretty much leaves Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran as the only Republican who has expressed interest in the job, so he looks like a safe bet to succeed Texas Sen. John Cornyn.

12:44 PM PT: And here's a dispiriting development: Republican attorneys in AZ-02 are going to court to try to prevent 130 provisional ballots cast in a heavily Latino precinct in Cochise County from being counted.

1:24 PM PT: AK-Sen: It's hard not to feel like freshman Sen. Mark Begich is the Democrat with the biggest target painted on his back as we head into the 2014 election cycle: He won office in 2008 against an incredibly damaged incumbent in a very red state, which means his re-election chances probably start off at Tossup at best. So of course, Republicans are already lining up to run against him, and one GOP consultant even said to Roll Call that "it might be easier to ask which Republicans aren't considering taking on Begich." Indeed, at Netroots Nation in 2011, I asked Begich whom he might face and the list of names he rattled off was so long that I can scarcely remember a single one!

But fortunately, Kyle Trygstad's got a new list handy. He reports that Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and 2010 Senate nominee Joe Miller are already trying to line up support for potential bids, and adds that former Lt. Gov. Loren Leman, Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan, and even Gov. Sean Parnell might be interested. All that said, Begich is an excellent campaigner who, like Montana's Jon Tester, appears to have done a good job carving out a distinct profile for himself back home. What's more, Begich won't face the pressure of the presidential race bearing down on him from the top of the ticket; indeed, in 2008, he had to deal with Sarah Palin. And one positive note is that Barack Obama appears to have taken a higher share of the vote in Alaska last week than any Democrat since Hubert Humphrey. This will definitely be a hard-fought race.

1:40 PM PT: DSCC: While Republicans seem to already know who's going to lead their Senate campaign committee (see NRSC item below), Democrats are still casting about for a successor to Washington Sen. Patty Murray, who led the DSCC during its victorious 2012 cycle. Of course, 2014 will be an utter bear: With Democrats almost entirely on defense, it'll make 2012 look like Super Mario Bros. hacked to give you unlimited lives and permanent fireballs. So yeah, there probably aren't a lot of eager takers for the job, though Politico's Maggie Haberman reports that Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet "was offered the post" and is apparently considering it. (Bennet turned down the same opportunity last cycle, though.)

Other possibles include Sens. Amy Klobuchar (MN), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY), and Sheldon Whitehouse (RI), all of whom just won their second elections by resounding margins. Whoever gets the gig will mostly have to focus on fundraising, though recruiting may be important depending on whether certain members retire, like West Virginia's Jay Rockefeller and South Dakota's Tim Johnson. The good news is that expectations have to be very low for whomever takes the job, so a tough showing next cycle probably won't damage anyone's career.

2:09 PM PT: AZ-Gov: We've written about this nonsense before, but I'm not surprised to see it coming up again now, with the elections behind us: GOP Gov. Jan Brewer is claiming once more that she might try to challenge Arizona's laws which forbid her from running for a third term. This notion is based on some alleged ambiguity over whether the rules apply to her, since was first elevated to her current post in 2009 when then-Gov. Janet Napolitano left to become head of the Department of Homeland Security and has only been elected governor once. But mostly it seems like a way for Brewer to stave off lame-duck-ness, if legislators think she might actually serve another term.

Assuming, though, that this fever-dream won't become reality, a lot of names are already surfacing for possible 2014 bids. For Republicans, the Arizona Republic's early list includes Mesa Mayor Scott Smith, Secretary of State Ken Bennett, state Treasurer Doug Ducey, Attorney General Tom Horne, state Sen. Steve Pierce, and Mesa businessman Wil Cardon (who got whomped in the GOP Senate primary earlier this year by Jeff Flake).

For Democrats, some top possibilities are state Rep. Chad Campbell, Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton, former Arizona Board of Regents Chairman Fred Duval, and attorney Felecia Rotellini (who ran against Horne for AG in 2010). One other longshot possibility for Team Blue: Rich Carmona, who just lost the Senate race. Everyone except Ducey and Duval is quoted in some manner, either not ruling out a run or saying they're "considering," though a Carmona spokesman says he wants to wait until all ballots are counted in this election before considering the next.

3:28 PM PT: CA-07: Democrat Ami Bera continues to expand his lead over incumbent Republican (and freshman orientation leader) Dan Lungren in suburban Sacramento. As of Tuesday evening, Bera's more than doubled his lead—now 3,824 votes—from the previous update. Around 80,000 votes remain to be counted across the county, slightly more than half of which should be in CA-07. (Sacto estimated about 130K on Friday, and approximately 50K were counted in this latest batch, leaving some 80K remaining in total.)

Assuming there are 50,000 votes left to be split between Bera and Lungren, Lungren's magic number is 53.8 percent. And the same math that is hurting GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray in San Diego is affecting Lungren, too. The number of votes left to be counted continues to drop, and the newly counted votes seem to be more Bera-friendly: The last batch of votes broke for Bera 54-46! Given this, we can all turn our attention to a new race: Who will concede first, Lungren or Bilbray?

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Comment Preferences

  •  I'm going to repost... (12+ / 0-)

    The new Virginia PVI's I calculated last night, since they came when the thread was pretty clogged.  This time in ranked order.  

    Solid D - Our Base

    VA-3: D+27 (was D+23)
    VA-8: D+17 (was D+15)
    VA-11: D+11 (was D+7)

    Potential pickups this decade:

    VA-2: R+1 (was R+5)
    VA-10: R+2 (was R+4)
    VA-4: R+3 (was R+6)
    VA-5: R+5 (was R+6)
    VA-1: R+5 (was R+8)

    Safe Republican

    VA-7: R+9 (was R+11)
    VA-6: R+11 (was R+12)
    VA-9: R+14 (was R+11)

    I'm thinking the VA map stinks of dummymander, although given Obama continued to boost African-American turnout in 2012, it's hard to tell how much reversion will happen in 2016.  Still, I feel bullish on VA-2 being Democratic-leaning by 2020, and the next four will be seats a Democrat can win.  

  •  One-Stop Shop (18+ / 0-)

    for down ticket results.  Am I missing any?  Dem flips in bold, Republican flips in bold and italics.  Voters not in much of a mood to throw incumbents out at any level.

    DE Lieutenant Governor – Matt Denn (D-i) 62, Sher Valenzuela (R) 37
    DE Commissioner of Insurance – Karen Stewart (D-i) 61, Ben Mobley (R) 38

    IN Attorney General – Greg Zoeller (R-i) 58, Kay Fleming (D) 42
    IN Superintendent of Public Instruction – Glenda Ritz (D) 53, Tony Bennett (R-i) 47

    MO Lieutenant Governor – Peter Kinder (R-i) 49, Susan Montee (D) 45
    MO Secretary of State – Jason Kander (D) 49, Shane Schoeller (R) 48
    MO Attorney General – Chris Koster (D-i) 56, Ed Martin (R) 41
    MO Treasurer – Clint Zweifel (D-i) 50, Cole McNary (R) 46

    MT Secretary of State – Linda McCulloch (D-i) 51, Brad Johnson (R) 45
    MT Attorney General – Tim Fox (R) 54, Pam Bucy (D) 46
    MT Auditor – Monica Lindeen (D-i) 53, Derek Skees (R) 47
    MT Superintendent of Public Instruction – Denis Juneau (D-i) 50.2, Sandy Welch (R) 49.8

    NC Lieutenant Governor – Dan Forest (R) 50.1, Linda Coleman (D) 49.9
    NC Secretary of State – Elaine Marshall (D-i) 54, Ed Goodwin (R) 46
    NC Attorney General – Roy Cooper (D-i) unopposed
    NC Treasurer – Janet Cowell (D-i) 54, Steve Royal (R) 46
    NC Auditor – Beth Wood (D-i) 54, Debra Goldman (R) 46
    NC Commissioner of Agriculture – Steve Troxler (R-i) 53, Walter Smith (D) 47
    NC Commissioner of Insurance – Wayne Goodwin (D-i) 52, Mike Causey (R) 48
    NC Labor Commissioner – Cherie Berry (R-i) 53, John Brooks (D) 47
    NC Superintendent of Public Instruction – June Atkinson (D-i) 54, John Tedesco (R) 46

    ND Treasurer – Kelly Schmidt (R-i) 66, Ross Mushik (D) 34
    ND Auditor – Bob Peterson (R-i) 63, Scot Kelsh (D) 37
    ND Commissioner of Insurance – Adam Hamm (R-i) 63, Tom Potter (D) 37
    ND Public Service Commissioner 2 – Randy Christman (R ) 54, Brad Crabtree (D) 41

    OR Secretary of State – Kate Brown (D-i) 51, Knute Buehler (R) 44
    OR Attorney General – Ellen Rosenblum (D-i) 56, James Buchal (R) 39
    OR Treasurer – Ted Wheeler (D-i) 58, Tom Cox (R) 37

    PA Attorney General – Kathleen Kane (D) 56, Dave Freed (R) 42
    PA Treasurer – Rob McCord (D-i) 53, Diana Vaughan (R) 44
    PA Auditor General – Eugene DePasquale (D) 50, John Mahre (R) 46

    TX Railroad Commissioner 2 – Christi Craddick (R) 56, Dale Henry (D) 40
    TX Railroad Commissioner 3 – Barry Smitherman (R-i) unopposed

    UT Attorney General – John Swallow (R) 65, Dee Smith (D) 30
    UT Treasurer – Richard Ellis (R-i) 67, Christopher Stout (D) 28
    UT Auditor – John Dougall (R) 65, Mark Sage (D) 29

    VT Lieutenant Governor – Phil Scott (R) 58, Cass Gekas (D) 39
    VT Secretary of State – Jim Condos (D-i) unopposed
    VT Attorney General – Bill Sorrell (D-i) 57, Jack McMullen (R) 35
    VT Treasurer – Beth Pearce (D-i) 52, Wendy Wilton (R) 42
    VT Auditor of Accounts – Doug Hoffer (D) 50, Vince Illuzzi (R) 47

    WA Lieutenant Governor – Brad Owen (D-i) 54, Bill Finkbeiner (R) 46
    WA Secretary of State – Kim Wyman (R) 51, Kathleen Drew (D) 49
    WA Attorney General – Bob Ferguson (D) 53, Reagan Dunn (R) 47
    WA Treasurer – Jim McIntire (D-i) 58, Sharon Hanek (R) 42
    WA Auditor – Troy Kelley (D) 52, James Watkins (R) 48
    WA Commissioner of Public Lands – Peter Goldmark (D-i) 58, Clint Dider (R) 42
    WA Insurance Commissioner – Mike Kreidler (D-i) 58, John Adams (R) 42

    WV Secretary of State – Natalie Tennant (D-i) 62, Brian Savilla (R) 38
    WV Attorney General – Patrick Morrisey (R) 51, Darrell McGraw (D-i) 49
    WV Treasurer – John Perdue (D-i) 55, Mike Hall (R) 45
    WV Auditor – Glen Gainer (D-i) 57, Larry Faircloth (R) 43
    WV Commissioner of Agriculture - Walt Helmick (D) 51, Kent Leonhardt (R) 49

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:22:36 AM PST

  •  my AZ-02 diary Barbet (D) leading (5+ / 0-)

    "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

    by biscobosco on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:50:41 AM PST

  •  Taking the House (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    I am somewhat glad that we did not get a 219-216 majority or something similar in the House. Conservadems would have torpedoed any progressive-friendly budget deal and the Democrats would get the blame for the fall-out. There aren't many conservadems left in the House, but there are still some. I think we need about 225 seats to have mainstream Democrats really control the House. 2014!

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 08:05:51 AM PST

  •  Hey random question (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, MichaelNY

    what's the name of the 22 year old prick behind Thomas Massie and Keery Bentivolio?

  •  Why Obama's white voter problem was (22+ / 0-)

    exaggerated:

    Romney’s strong national showing among white voters was almost exclusively driven by historic support from Southern and Appalachian white voters. In many counties, Obama’s performance was the worst by any Democrat since McGovern or, in some places, ever. . . .

    Outside the South, Romney’s performance among white voters was anything but historic. He ran behind Bush’s tallies in most of the northern half of the United States.

    http://www.tnr.com/...

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 08:53:27 AM PST

    •  Which means that in 2016… (4+ / 0-)

      …if we had, say, Hillary Clinton on top of the ticket, that we'd get back a whole bunch of the white vote, even if some of the Obama-only voters stayed home.

      I could also hope that now that Obama isn't running again that OFA stays useful to our next POTUS candidate.

      Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com. Get your We are the 99% Yard Sign.

      by DemSign on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 08:58:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Two things (10+ / 0-)

        1) Whether Hillary gets more of the white vote depends on who she is facing (yes I suspect she'd get more of the white vote against, say, Rubio if you know what I mean) but let's not remember that the vision of Hillary as a pasonaria for white working-class was a late novelty of the 2008 primary season and was the result of her positioning after Obama "cling to guns and religion" gaffe. She had never been associated with this until then and once Republicans start getting their claws into her again, her old image may make it just as difficult as for Obama. Depends how she runs her campaign and how well they reinforce that image preventively. Not a sure thing by any means. Democrats are still seen as Democrats in the South.

        2) Plouffe clearly said that OFA was staying around to help with legislative goals (pressure by the people) but they were not going to lend it to a future candidate. He said, relatively convincingly, that OFA was effective because of the enthusiasm for Obama personally and that it would not be  a godsend for a different candidate that elicits different feelings. I imagine Obama will use it to help but that whoever is the candidate will have to create their own structure based on enthusiasm for them.

        •  Also keep in mind (8+ / 0-)

          that the 2008 primaries involved white voters in Democratic primaries.  That's a very different question than white voters in general elections.

          HRC might have done better in Appalachia than Obama did, but I assume the overall trend--which predates Obama--would have continued under her, perhaps at a somewhat reduced rate.

          (Similarly, Hispanic districts in CA went strongly for Clinton in the primaries and then strongly for Obama in the general election.)

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:36:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I think she will do better among (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          among southern and Appalachian Caucasians.  I remember a poll showing her with above 60% approval last year in Arkansas.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:38:09 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  The important thing about the OFA (6+ / 0-)

          is that the people within it will be taking their institutional knowledge and experience to whichever campaigns they involve themselves in. That's where we get a long term advantage over the GOP---whereas the experience of GOP activists consists of watching ORCA fail and the attendant shellshock.

          One person's campaign machinery never passes to another unless there's some kind of familial bond (i.e. Clinton people going from Bill to Hillary, the crowd that hovers around the Kennedy family, etc.) so the best case scenario was always going to be either an increase in institutional knowledge of campaigning, or some of the infrastructure going to the DNC.

          Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

          by Zutroy on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:31:57 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Honestly, the image people have of OFA's role (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        outside of elections is somewhat exaggerated. Yes, Obama placed a lot of emphasis on field, and therefore built a strong field organization. But OFA from 2009 through 2011 was basically a few RFDs per state plus whatever volunteer structure they could keep in place outside of the election, which, while probably more than ever before, was still pretty minimal in comparison to a presidential campaign. They didn't have the army of field organizers they had in 2008 and 2012.

        I'd imagine that what's left standing of OFA will be more or less absorbed into the campaign of our next nominee. The only question is whether it happens before or after the primary and how orderly it is.

        •  DFA hasn't (0+ / 0-)

          been absorbed like that. I think OFA will be an important fundraising and organizational apparatus for Obama to exert his political influence and get candidates who share his values elected.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:50:11 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I really hope that DOESN'T happen (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingTag, MichaelNY

            If Obama wants to start his own PAC and donate to candidates he likes, fine, I'm all for that. But the last thing we need is another third party liberal group running around trying to run their own duplicative field operation because they think it's all trendy and grassroots. Field doesn't work well when you have like 5 billion groups who can't coordinate all trying to do the same thing. In fact, outside groups trying to do field tend to just get in the way and draw away manpower that could otherwise be used to expand the target universe. And Obama is enough of an organizer to know that.

            •  I think it would work very well (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              AussieforObama2ndterm

              if the OFA could work and coordinate with the DNC, in targeting Republicans and helping vulnerable Democrats.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:16:18 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  You cited the DFA model (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera, gabjoh, MichaelNY

                which is actually pretty atrocious. What DFA does is basically paid canvassers who can't coordinate with most official campaigns because of the way DFA is organized and wind up covering a lot of the same turf as official campaign volunteers as opposed to actually allowing us to reach more voters.

                The most effective way for OFA to remain a seperate entity would be for it to remain a project of the DNC that in-kinds staffers and joins coordinated campaigns, but really, if you're just going to be part of the Democratic party and join Democratic coordinated campaigns, why bother having a separate organization? Especially since almost all of the staff that OFA will retain after the election will be at the RFD level or above, and RFDs are a lot harder to just integrate into a coordinated campaign in August than FOs.

                The next candidate can probably do some work with the volunteer teams OFA's built in some areas, but there's really no reason for there to be a separate OFA staff organization.

            •  Obama doesn't seem to be the loose cannon type (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              He looks like very much a team player.

      •  nope (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, skibum59

        white southern and appalachian voters have been moving away from all democrats - including bill clinton - for decades now. hillary might have picked up some of those votes in the primary as a way to stick it to obama, but she would lose them in the general, as would any democrat.

        this is a generational matter, not a persuadable voter matter IMO. the generational replacement of older white southern voters with younger, more liberal ones, and the growing % of black,. latino and asian southerners, are what will eventually win the south for us, not nominating a white democrat in hopes that they're just hostile to barack obama personally.

        if it was hilllary, they'd just frame their predetermined position by referring to sexism and the 60s, rather than race and (imagined) religion.

    •  Just watch (7+ / 0-)

      We're still going to hear about the Bradley Effect in future elections.  The fact that it's been debunked time and time again never seems to matter with the pundits.

    •  Null hypothesis for a group X (0+ / 0-)

      is that X voted for Obama more strongly in 2008 but was stronger for him than for Kerry in 2004.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:29:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  And there continues to be zero evidence (6+ / 0-)

      of whites moving towards republicans anywhere outside the south. Relatedly, there is zero evidence of Iowa, Minnesota, or Wisconsin trending republican.

      •  And yet. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Obama did worse in nearly every state than he did in 2008.  Have to square the circle: some groups were worse for him than last time and not just in the South.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:37:59 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well of course (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

          He declined two points in the national popular vote for real reasons that have to pertain with American electorate's impatience, short-sightedness and lack of broader understanding of politics from a global perspective.

          But outside of rural areas, Obama's percentage among white voters didn't decline more than the national percentage did.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:45:34 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Right, the important question is relative change. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, MichaelNY

            But even then: you have to make sure it adds up.  You can't have the nonwhite electorate share go up, the nonwhite D vote stay the same, or drop less than nationally, and the white D vote stay the same or drop less than nationally, in each state--not when Obama dropped by similar amounts in most states.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:49:48 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm more interested in relative change (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Particularly in swingish areas. I think Democrats have taken a major step towards retaking the House this year.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:27:05 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  midwest (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp, MichaelNY

          The midwest is loaded with white swing voters. In most states (especially the plains and Indiana) Obama did a lot worse than in 2008, as he got a much lower % of swing voters. However, he did considerably better than Kerry did in 2004, when most swing voters went for Bush.

          Even with that effect, a lot of the difference between 2008 and 2012 was due to campaign effort.

          MN: 2008, McCain plays and Obama doesn't. 2012, no one plays. Obama's margin drops 2.5.

          WI: 2008, Obama plays, not sure what McCain did. 2012, Romney spends more than Obama. Obama's margin drops 7.2.

          MI: 2008, Obama plays and McCain abandons it with about a month to go. 2012, no one plays much but GOP groups spend more. Obama's margin drops 6.9.

          IA: contested both years. Obama's margin drops 4.0.

          IN: 2008, Obama plays, McCain doesn't. 2012, no action. Obama's margin drops 11.5.

          MO: contested in 2008, no action in 2012. Obama's margin drops 9.5, apparently much worse in the culturally southern areas than in the culturally midwestern areas.

          OH: contested both years. Obama's margin drops 2.7 but I think they still have a bunch of (mostly Dem) provisionals to count.

          ND, SD, KS, NE: Not much action in 2008 except a bit in ND and NE2. No action in 2012 except for ads in NE2 aimed at Iowa. Obama's margin drops 11.1 in ND, 9.5 in SD, 7.7 in NE, 7.3 in KS.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:02:25 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  But he did better in almost every non-southern (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

          state than Kerry did in 2004, including among whites. And this despite the republicans running a campaign that was far more oriented around white identity politics than Bush's relatively inclusive '04 campaign was.

          •  Yeah. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            As I said, I think "in absolute terms, group X was more Dem in 2012 than in 2004 but less Dem than in 2008" is the null hypothesis--groups trending D, trending R, or staying static might all fit that.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:16:38 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  If it fits the null hypothesis (0+ / 0-)

              how does that fit either an R or D trend? The null hypothesis doesn't work for southern whites (or/especially Appalachian whites), or for Hispanics or Asians. We're all agreed about those trends, yes? Aren't non-southern whites clearly in the middle?

              •  For example (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                a state that went for Bush by 2, for Obama by 5, and now Romney by 1 would go from something like even to R+1 to R+1.5--I might regard it as trending Republican even though it also fits the null hypothesis.  Violating the null hypothesis suggests a trend but fitting it doesn't necessarily rule a trend out, although it might mean the trend is weaker.

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:33:33 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Okay. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Well this shouldn't be hard. We can just look at state exit polls and see if there's an R trend among whites in non-southern states. My guess is that there wouldn't be a significant one in more than a few states (Arizona and Pennsylvania come to mind as possible exceptions; and Missouri if we're counting that as non-southern).

                  •  Let's see. (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Chachy, lordpet8, MichaelNY, hankmeister

                    Assuming exit polls are reliable (a big "assuming"):

                    Ohio whites: 56-44 Bush, then 52-48 McCain, then 57-41 Romney.  Looking at the Republican vote share in PVI terms, that'd be R+5, R+7, R+9.  Looking at the Democratic vote share, it'd be R+4, R+5, R+9, or so.  Potential red trend.  

                    Colorado whites: 57-42 Bush, then 50-48 Obama, then 54-44 Romney.  That'd be R+6, then R+2 or R+3 and then R+6.  No real trend there, although perhaps Colorado whites are reverting to form.

                    Nevada whites: 55-43 Bush, then 53-45 McCain, then 56-43 Romney.  So R+4 or 5, then R+7 or 8, then R+7 or 8.  Potential red trend, although maybe not recently.

                    New York whites: 50-49 Bush, then 52-46 Obama, then 49-49.  So I'd call that Even (D+1 or R+1), then R+1 at most, then R+1 or so.

                    California whites: 51-47 Bush, then 52-46 Obama, then 53-45 Romney.  Even/R+1 at most, then even/R+1 at most, then R+3.

                    Pennsylvania whites: 54-45 Bush, then 51-48 McCain, then 57-42 Romney.  So R+3, then R+5, then R+8 or R+9.  I'd call that an R trend.

                    Note that Obama's 2012 margin was usually about 12 points less than his 2008 margin, except in Nevada and New York.  Nationally, his 2012 margin was about 4 points less than his 2008 margin.

                    It might be a methodological thing with exit polls, but it's certainly possible there are some red trends among whites in the above states.

                    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                    by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:40:23 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  One or two more. (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                    Arizona whites: 59-41 Bush, then 59-40 McCain, then 66-32(!) for Romney.

                    That'd be R+7 or R+8, then R+13, then R+16.  Hard not to call that an R trend.

                    It is impressive you called perhaps the strongest Republican trends among state whites in Arizona and Pennsylvania, but it's possible there are similar trends in Ohio and Colorado and even in California.

                    Oregon whites: 50-50 Bush/Kerry, then 57-44 for Obama, then 54-44 Obama this time.  D+1/D+2, then D+2/D+4, then D+4.  Of course, Oregon was more contested in 2004, but I'd call that a D trend.  (Of course, Oregon is a pretty white state, so that's probably not too different from the statewide results.)

                    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                    by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:48:38 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Yeah, AZ and PA don't surprise me. (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                      OH surprises me a little, but it probably shouldn't have. But honestly, I really don't think there's enough evidence to conclude that there's an R trend in CO or CA, just statistically speaking. (And just theoretically speaking, it doesn't surprise me that republicans could improve significantly among suburban CO whites in 2012, even while the state continues to trend away from them.)

                      CA in particular could just be a one-off - either because of candidate performance (Romney seems like a pretty good fit for the So Cal republican set), or because of wonky exit polls, either way.

                      And in general it looks like there's a D trend among whites in New England and the Pacific Notrhwest, which would cancel out the R trend in PA/OH/AZ, so that on balance non-southern whites have stayed relatively flat.

                      The Upper Midwest would be interesting to look at (and I will when I get a chance), since it's sociohistorically connected to the New England/Pac NW axis, but also has some commonalities with the industrial midwest, and might resemble western PA/OH for that reason? And interesting too, of course, because of those swing/light blue states that have been part of the Dem firewall since 1992. (Between MN, WI, MI, and IA, only IA has gone to the republicans since 1992, and even that only happened once.) Republicans need to crack that if they're going to win the presidency, now that NV, CO, and VA are all Dem-leaning, or at least well on their way.

                      •  Obama won Colorado and Virginia (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        by less than he won Iowa, both in 2008 and in 2012.  I would expect Colorado and Virginia to go Republican before Iowa does.

                        Remember, Obama didn't win Colorado by 10 points--he won it by about 5 points.  A bit more Democratic than the country, yes, but I don't think it's impossible for Republicans, or so impossible that they need to win states Obama won by wider margins instead.

                        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                        by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 01:33:50 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Yes. (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

                          Sloppy phrasing on my part, maybe. But let me put it another way: grant the 2016 Dem nominee all the states that have gone Dem every year since MTV was actually good, then add Iowa and New Hampshire and you get to 252 EVs. Add NM and NV (which are clearly Dem-leaning now) and you're at 263. The republican would either have to win back one or more of those states, or run the table in every single other competitive state, including Colorado and Virginia, as well as Ohio and Florida and North Carolina... And I only see Colorado and Virginia getting harder for the Republicans to win with each passing election (and NC and FL, for that matter, have age structures that should scare the bejeebus out of them).

                          •  I don't grant that. (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            1992-2012 was, overall, a bunch of elections in favorable circumstances for Democrats.  We don't know if 2016 will be in similarly favorable circumstances.  We've never had to have a Democrat run during a recession that began under a Democrat, for example.  

                            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                            by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:21:13 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  What is your thesis, exactly? (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            wu ming

                            Do you think that there are structural reasons that lead the parties to always find a 50-50 equilibrium? Do you reject the notion that one party or another might have a structural advantage over any lengthy period of time? Do you believe that underlying demographic patterns have nothing to do with who wins national elections?

                          •  My thesis: (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, jncca, bumiputera

                            1. There are, in fact, structural forces which tend towards a 50/50 equilibrium between two parties.  Or at least: you can't please all of the people all of the time, and there's always the other party waiting to pick up what you drop.  Everywhere isn't getting more Democratic all the time.

                            2. Demographic effects and structural advantages are probably at most comparable to, and perhaps smaller than, the effects of broader fundamentals like incumbency and how the country is doing, and I'm not aware of too many Presidential elections where the former outweighed the latter.  I don't think Romney "should have" won, but demographics stopped him, or at least I don't think that's at all obvious.

                            In any case, I think the relative power of demographics and economic/foreign policy fundamentals is quite untested, but the former often gets far more attention on DKE than the latter.  I don't want us falling into determinism or overconfidence, but I do want us to consider the full range of relevant factors beyond demographics.  

                            3. The past 5 elections do not represent the full spectrum of possible or likely conditions, not even close, and there's no reason to treat an incumbent Barack Obama running against Mitt Romney while the economy's improving and we're winding down wars as a lower bound on Democratic performance.  In 2016, Republicans could field a better candidate, Democrats a worse one, there could be a slowdown or a recession, and any or all of those things could potentially outweigh the small advantage Obama's had in Colorado.  Some things have never happened since 1992--and one of them is a recession starting while a Democrat's in the White House.  I don't think that's entirely a coincidence, but I think it helps explain a lot of the other things, and I sen't think it'll last forever.

                            4. State outcomes are very highly correlated, so it's not necessarily as unlikely as it sounds for someone to "sweep all the swing states".

                            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                            by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:18:32 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  *don't think it'll last forever. (0+ / 0-)

                            How did my phone get "sen't"?

                            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                            by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:22:12 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Well hmm. (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            I don't know how much I would disagree with there. I think the parties tend towards a 50-50 equilibrium over the long term, but I don't think the minority party is apt to respond instantaneously should they find themselves with only minority support. I think there's a lag. I think that's partly why Democrats won 5 straight presidential elections from 1932-1948, and often by wide margins. And why republicans won five of six from 1968-1988, with the only exception being the post-Watergate election; and often by wide margins. And I think since 1992 the pendulum has swung steadily towards the democrats, thanks in large part to demographic change. I don't think everywhere is getting more democratic all the time; see Appalachia, etc.

                            But I also don't think Democrats are destined to win elections by a larger margin every year from now on. I don't think they'll win in 2016 if there's a recession that year. I don't think either party is favored in 2016 this far out, because who the hell knows what's gonna happen. But I do think the demographics have established a baseline that slightly favors democrats at the moment, all things being equal (though of course they never are in politics) and will continue to do so more every year until the republicans respond by moving toward the ideological center.

                        •  trends& hispanic growth may bring us to that point (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY
                    •  not buying it for AZ (4+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      BeloitDem, MichaelNY, hankmeister, bjssp

                      They aren't done counting yet. They have more than 300k provisional ballots to count, and the ones they've counted so far have broken 52-46 for Obama. Romney's margin is probably going to end up around 7 or 8, which is a bit behind McCain in 2008. Obama would have had to run up ridiculous numbers among nonwhite voters to make up for that. I think it's more likely that they just got a bad sample, and the actual margin was something like 60-38 for Romney.

                      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                      by sacman701 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 02:04:59 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

              •  Although I agree with sacman (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                that the best comparisons are between states that were either contested in both cycles or ignored in both cycles.  The biggest campaign differences are between campaigning and not campaigning at all.

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:37:08 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  For a stronger example (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                the null hypothesis is that a district went for Humphrey by more than McGovern.  Believe it or not, there are places where McGovern did better, but only a few--but obviously political trends still went on in the majority of districts that fit that "null hypothesis".

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:40:00 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Part of the problem with whites (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      is that we don't really compete for them in some states. It's certainly understandable why, and merely trying won't solve everything, but trying should definitely help us. Which is to say, these numbers are kind of worse than they appear.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 08:21:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Pfft, that should be (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        are not as bad as they appear...

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 08:22:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  DWS would be "shocked" if Pelosi steps down (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, itskevin, askew, MichaelNY

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:13:36 AM PST

  •  Fascinating NYT chart. (6+ / 0-)

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

    by WisJohn on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:14:47 AM PST

  •  Angus King has a 6 yr term... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    He can join the majority for his first two years, or figure GOP will win the Senate in 2014, but then looking at 2016 when the Dems should definitely take it back (if they lose it) so in his factoring Dems will have majority for at least four of his six year term and he is a left-of-center guy anyways.  

    With Dems making gains, it greatly limits the bargaining power he was hoping for though - which is delicious.  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:09:57 AM PST

    •  Angus King (5+ / 0-)

      will be playing that game every two years as long as he is in the Senate. He likes the attention. Whatever. I will care about how he votes on specific issues. His histrionics leave me cold

      •  i don't trust him at all (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        in my book, the vote for majority leader or speaker is one of the most important votes that a congress person makes. Even though it's just an "organizing" vote, it has very real and important policy implications. Does anyone think that who controls a body of congress doesn't influence what bills get passed? The fact that King is trying to exact concessions based on his independent status makes me think that he will continue to do so on votes for for specific issues. To me, he is giving every indication that he's going to be an independent more like lieberman than sanders.

  •  Obama's approval rating up to 55% on RAss (9+ / 0-)

    The result of Scotty now giving Democrats a 6 point advantage on his likely voter screen.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:14:20 AM PST

  •  Houston TX Precinct Results Map (8+ / 0-)

    here. It looks very similar to 2008.

    •  And Obama still carries Harris County. (7+ / 0-)

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:22:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Do you have these (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      For Travis, Fort Bend, Dallas, Bexar, and Tarrant?

      I'd be interested also in Nueces.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:01:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Where are Ft. Bend and Nueces? (0+ / 0-)
        •  Fort Bend (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, MichaelNY

          Is the suburban county to the southwest of Harris and Nueces is Corpus Christi.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:07:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The rest of the big counties aren't even question (4+ / 0-)

            marks.

            We know that Obama won almost every precinct in Webb (Laredo), Hildalgo (McAllen, except for a smattering of precincts around Edinburg most likely), Cameron (Brownsville, except for some precincts in Harlingen where Romney could get up to 60%), and El Paso (where Romney probably lost everything this time), split precincts in Galveston (where the lines of power are clearly demarcated) and Jefferson (Beaumont, same thing), and lost every precinct in Montgomery (north of Houston), Denton (north of Fort Worth), and Collin (north of Dallas).

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:11:48 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, MattTX, MichaelNY

        I would like to know how Romney won Fort Bend by 10 when Obama killed it so hard with hispanics, blacks, and asians.

        •  Turnout (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Chachy, MichaelNY

          Looking at the Houston precincts map, I don't actually see a whole bunch of evidence that Obama really substantially improved with Asians and Hispanics. I don't look too carefully though. Do you?

          If that's right, then he won't have made gains with Hispanics and Asians in Fort Bend. So, mostly a turnout problem, although there was no doubt some swing to Romney among whites in Sugar Land etc.

      •  I don't (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv

        But I'll post links if Greg makes any more.

        No doubt this will all be compiled by the state pretty soon for redistricting purposes, so there will be plenty to look at...

      •  Ah, Dallas County map (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn

        Looks like Dallas County has one of the fancy election reporting systems now!

        http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/...

        As with Harris County, hard to see much change from 2008 at a glance.

        •  Wow (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MattTX, Chachy, jncca

          No. That's some decent amount of change. The northwest is a fair amount bluer than 2008, and the blue excursions north and northeast of downtown along 75 and 78 expanded from 2008.

          Romney's McCain level performance in the county may have more to do with white turnout than anything else.

          I'd expect Dallas county to show a 65-35 margin for Democrats from here on out based on this map alone.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 01:23:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Really? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn

            I don't really see it. Compare to this.

            The 2012 map looks bluer than we we are used to seeing, but that is mainly because everything that Obama won by even 1 vote is colored in DARK blue.

            •  No (0+ / 0-)

              Even accounting for that there are quite a bit of light red precincts from 2008 that are blue in 2012 (obviously light blue, but we dont know because of the coloring of the new map).

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

              by wwmiv on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 02:42:41 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  I can't wait till next month (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MattTX

      when Oregon's counties will be releasing precinct results.  I will be making plenty of maps over winter break.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 01:02:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  So it looks like this is going to be the final (13+ / 0-)

    outcome of the house election with D+8 the net result.  This time I'm posting it in a less skewed projection than my google maps based one (equal area? I don't remember from geography class):

    Photobucket
    (click for larger)

    Also this easily has to be the fewest number of seats Democrats have held in the south since Reconstruction.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:27:12 AM PST

    •  heh (7+ / 0-)

      list of Dem seats in the south

      1-3. holdouts Rahall, Barrow, McIntyre
      4-5. yankee-ized NoVa
      6. black parts of Richmond + Norfolk
      7. Louisville
      8. Nashville
      9. Memphis
      10. mostly-black areas of Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Charlotte
      11. NC triangle, not culturally southern
      12. mostly-black areas of Raleigh, eastern NC
      13. MS black belt
      14. AL black belt/black areas of Birmingham
      15. GA black belt
      16. SC black belt/black areas of major cities
      17-19. mostly-black areas of metro ATL
      20. Dem parts of N Florida
      21-29. I-4 corridor and S Fla, not culturally southern
      30. New Orleans-Baton Rouge black corridor
      31-32. Dallas/Ft Worth Dem areas
      33-35. Houston Dem areas
      36. Austin/San Antonio ugly district
      37. San Antonio
      38. El Paso
      39-42. S Texas border districts

      I think that's all of them. MD and DE are not the south.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:53:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also it's amazing how few are in the Deep South (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Just 9 of 38 are Democrats in the 5 Goldwater states, and you only get 4 more if you include northern Florida and southeastern Texas.

        By my count, between 1992 and the present we've held an additional 60 seats in the former slave states minus Missouri if you try to equate the past two rounds of congressional districts to the ones used today.

        General question for Texas, which part of the state would you consider the "Deep South"?  The Houston area or Dallas or neither?

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:07:08 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  As you know, I'm not from Texas (0+ / 0-)

          But my understanding is that the most culturally Southern part of Texas is the northeast, centered around Beaumont.

          In your list of Democrats in the former slave states, did you include Delaware and Maryland?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:34:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Gotcha, and yes I did (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            though since it was only the "additional" seats, the only difference that makes though is Frank Kratovil, whom I figure is "southern" enough to count if I'm counting Bill Nelson from the Space Coast, or anyone from central Florida/South Texas.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

            by sawolf on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 05:22:36 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Here (6+ / 0-)

          Deep south are those counties in red, while those in medium red are counties which can be considered but depends on the person you're talking to although most would agree, and light red are those counties which only some would say are.

          Notice that I split Harris, Montgomery, and Galveston counties. In Harris County, Baytown and everything else east of the San Jacinto River is much more southern-fried than the rest. In Montgomery, Conroe is much more southern than The Woodlands (again, using the San Jacinto). And in Galveston, Galveston is much more deep south variety southern (albeit the minority type deep South) than the rest, which is suburbia.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:16:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  So by my count, we have just 7 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, MichaelNY, jncca

        of the "old style" southern Democrats (or just Blue Dogs) remaining in congress: Barrow, Rahall, McIntyre, Cooper, Pryor, Manchin, and Landrieu (though she's debatable).  Rockafeller, Warner, Kaine, Nelson, and Hagan are all more moderate/modern style of Dems, Moran, Connelly, Price, Yarmuth and Green are liberals, and everyone else isn't Anglo white.

        I suppose this year we could have still won AR-01, AR-04, FL-02, OK-02, maybe NC-11, SC-05, and SC-07 with Blue Dog type candidates (or incumbents), but that's only 7 more.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:22:26 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Better way to look at it. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, MichaelNY

        White, Traditional Southern Dems:

        GA, 12, NC-09, WV-03

        Black Majority VRA:

        Al-7, FL-5, FL-20, FL-24, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, LA-2, MS-2, NC-1, NC-12, SC-6, TN-9, TX-30, VA-3,

        Not VRA, but majority-minority

        GA-2, FL-9, FL-14, TX-9, TX-18, TX-33

        Non-Traditional South

        FL-18, FL-21, FL-22, FL-23, KY-3, NC-4, TN-5(?), VA-8, VA-11

        Latino

        FL-26, TX-15, TX-16, TX-20, TX-23, TX-28, TX-29, TX-34, TX-35.

        So out of the 42 seats, over half (24) are VRA seats, with another six technically not covered by the VRA, but used to soak up black and Latino voters.  

        That leaves only 12 majority white seats in the south.  Three are Demosaur, five are in South Florida, two in Northern Virginia, one for Louisville (arguably Midwestern), one for white liberals in the NC Triangle region, and the final one in Nashville.  

        Nashville is an interesting case, because it's a pretty moderate, majority-white Democratic seat with no VRA protection.  I said the other week I have a feeling that Republicans will cut the city up the way they used to divide Columbus after 2020.  By that time, the remaining Democratic proclivities in rural Tennessee will be pretty much dead, so they might as well sink the seat.  Hopefully I'm wrong though.  

    •  Neat! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, bumiputera, MichaelNY

      Also does anyone know if there are calculations available for the smallest and largest (area-wise) districts?  Before the last round of redistricting the smallest 40 or so were Democratic.  Ed Royce held the smallest Republican district.  Would love to see where that stands?

      NY-7 in real life, @BobbyBigWheel on Twitter

      by Bobby Big Wheel on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:40:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Two (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, WisJohn, MichaelNY, jncca

      That's how many southern white conservatives we have. McIntyre and Barrow. That's it.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:02:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Three (6+ / 0-)

        I suppose, suppose, we can include Jim Cooper.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:03:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yup, and with Cooper you can definitely (5+ / 0-)

          assume that since he has a relatively liberal district (for the south) that he's just quite personally conservative, like many past southern Democrats were.

          Interestingly, it seems that McIntyre's and Cooper's districts are the only seats in the south held by white Democrats that Republicans have never won since Reconstruction.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

          by sawolf on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:07:21 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I've talked to Cooper personally (6+ / 0-)

            and he's definitely personally conservative on fiscal issues. The national debt clock that he has kept in his office during both the Bush and Obama administrations is in no way pandering. On other issues, he's not all that bad, and he can be counted on to enthusiastically support Obamacare implementation- the last thing he wants is to let the health care industry go back to its old ways.

            Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

            by fearlessfred14 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:23:27 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Christopher Walker

              Cooper could be worse. He voted for the DREAM Act, for instance. Actually, and to my surprise, all the Blue Dogs in the Tennessee congressional delegation seem to have voted for the DREAM Act, which puts them to the left of some of their counterparts in the swingy-er North Carolina for instance. Admittedly, some of them were leaving congress at the time but I was still very impressed

              Cooper's not perfect but he's better than a lot of the other Blue Dogs and probably better than some of his potential Democratic replacements could be

    •  I think my favorite pickups (7+ / 0-)

      were NV-04, TX-23, AZ-01, and MN-08. look at how much blue they add to the map!

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:16:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  2012 Elections: Where did Libertarians spoil it (5+ / 0-)

    for the GOP.  I can think of two strong examples: MA-06 where the Libertarian got 4.5% and Tierney won 48.3%-47.3%.  Someone on RedMassGroup said that the bleeding to the Libertarian may have been partially due to the MA GOP shutting out libertarian Republican delegates.

    In AZ-01, Democrat won 48.5%-45.6% and the Libertarian got 6.0%.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:31:40 AM PST

  •  Mi08 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Wasn't one of the most promising Dems to face Rogers a former CIA agent? Guessing there's elected Dema in the district. But trying to replace a guy appointed CIA director with an ex-CIA Dem would be interesting.

    But I'm sure there's a Dem who can fill that CIA director job too

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:32:48 AM PST

  •  Ryan surprised by turnout in urban areas (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bythesea

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:44:48 AM PST

  •  Jim Messina apparently visiting the White House (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I know he's been mentioned here as a potential DNC chairman.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:57:09 AM PST

  •  Now that I'm borrowing a desktop (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    I tried to redistrict NY, but got bored after CD-2.  So many tiny precincts that it takes a while to get coloring done.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:57:58 AM PST

  •  VA-AG: Mark Herring seems to be officially in (4+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:10:03 AM PST

    •  That a State Senate? (0+ / 0-)

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:58:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I mean he is, but where from? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:58:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Leesburg in Loudon County. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, DCCyclone

        His district runs from Leesburg to Chantilly.

        Loudon County seems to be a bellwether of sorts these days.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:03:42 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  One thing I don't care about anymore... (4+ / 0-)

          ...is geographic diversity.  So many of us were psyched 3 years ago when we had Deeds from rural western Virginia, Wagner from Hampton Roads, and Shannon from NoVA.  And it was all worthless.  Three NoVA Dems can all win if they're good candidates who run good campaigns.

          It looks like McAuliffe will be our Gov nominee unless Warner runs, in which case Ben Tribbett says McAuliffe will drop down to L.G.  My longtime friend Aneesh Chopra is the likely L.G. nominee, although there is establishment grumbling about him and they are trying to offer a primary challenge but without anyone who can obviously beat Aneesh.

          I am hopeful that Cuccinelli proves a bridge too far for Virginians in 2013 Virginia.  McAuliffe has warts, he is going to have to find a way to message his own image to inoculate himself.  We shouldn't be fooled into thinking Cooch can't win...he can.  Only Warner is a sure bet to win on our side.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 06:08:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  CA State Assembly - Rudy Salas (D) wins (16+ / 0-)

    http://blogs.sacbee.com/...

    The supermajority is intact.

    Salas' lead had grown from 268 votes last Tuesday to about 2,500 this morning through the counting of absentee and provisional ballots.

    In the other race critical to Assembly Democrats' supermajority hopes, Sharon Quirk-Silva continued to extend her lead over incumbent Assemblyman Chris Norby in Orange County. Her lead of 1,004 after the precinct count widened to 2,222 votes this morning.

    •  I just hope CA Dems flex their power (7+ / 0-)

      And don't just get fat and lazy like so many other states where Dems have huge majorities but little in the way of progressive policy ever passes.  They have a lot of work to do in order to fix state finances that have been a mess for a very long time thanks to the tyranny of the minority.

      •  Recall madness: Coming soon to a theater near you (6+ / 0-)

        The last tool left in CA GOP's arsenal is the recall.  Expect them to heavily target any state rep in a swing district who votes for a tax or fee increase.

        30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

        Truman: "The buck stops here!"
        Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

        by Marcus Graly on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:42:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  "Flex Your Power" (4+ / 0-)

        is actually the name of a statewide energy efficiency campaign. Now to apply it to the fiscal mess!

        The fact that the state actually voted to increase taxes to pay for services is a sign that people are waking up and should embolden Democrats.

      •  A lot are terrified they are on the hook now (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        No more blame the Republicans.    Time to take full responsibility.  

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:43:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  It seems that the leadership is going do that (5+ / 0-)

        Fixing Prop. 13 should be on the table now, which has been much of the source of the financial problems in the state. There is a lot of to clean up and I think the leadership is pragmatic enough to take advantage of this opportunity.

        26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:54:29 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  A full repeal is probably a bridge too far, but (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          they can clarify which property is covered by the property tax cap and which aren't.  What is in their power to do with Prop 13 legislatively?

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:57:31 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Prop 13 itself is less to blame than both parties (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, lordpet8, MichaelNY

          Prop 13 is just unfair, as one neighbor can pay many times as much taxes as another neighbor for a literally identical property.  The real problem is the irresponsible legislature, mostly Dems, who acted as if, gasp, property values (and therefore property taxes) couldn't go down... ever.  The assumption that property values would go up every year forever leads to delusional budgeting, and a nearly unsolvable mess, even though the state itself is not exactly poverty stricken.

          I don't think the Sac politicians who got us in the mess are capable of getting us out, especially because they can't think beyond their term limits.  But I'd be happy to be surprised.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:29:12 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Florida is similar (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, bumiputera

            Look up "Save our Homes."  That's what prevents property taxes from increasing as they should.  I pay about $800 in property taxes a year while my neighbors who just moved in pay triple that for a home worth the same value.

          •  prop 13 is the source of the supermajority (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            requirement for raising taxes and (until 2010) passing a budget, which is by far the main reason why the state's finances have been borked for so long.

            the delusional budgeting is an artifact of the california GOP demanding delusional concessions for decades enabled by prop 13 + california being forced to depend relatively more on income tax and relatively less on property tax due to prop 13 + california having a very pro-cyclical boom and bust economy that crashes hard without keynesian public spending counterbalancing the bust (prevented by - you guessed it - prop 13).

            no state with the fiscal requirements of prop 13 could possibly have anything other than a basketcase budget.

  •  Curson-related trivia (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, MichaelNY

    1.  After this week's swearings-in, the House will be back to 434 members. Name the one seat still vacant.

    2.  Okay, Curson, and before that Sekula-Gibbs.  Do we know who was the last temporary Member before them?

  •  Lee Atwater and the Southern Strategy (audio) (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, WisJohn, bythesea

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:33:34 AM PST

    •  Is this the Lee Atwater interview where (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      he said that the key for Republicans winning the South is to appeal to racist sentiments with policy, not dropping the N-word?

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:37:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It was: (5+ / 0-)
        You start out in 1954 by saying, “Nigger, nigger, nigger.” By 1968 you can’t say “nigger”—that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract. Now, you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites.… “We want to cut this,” is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than “Nigger, nigger.”

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:39:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  And so the Dogwhistle Playbook was born n/t (5+ / 0-)
        •  That sort of sentiment explains in a nutshell (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, bear83, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

          why Appalachian whites didn't abandon the party like whites in the black belt or other parts of the south did over the past 50 years.  When you put southern conservatives in the context of black vs white, they didn't care that they were voting for the party that would make them worse off as long as blacks were even more so.  Appalachian states like West Virginia, etc etc, are largely homogeneously white and therefore still voted Democratic in a much, much larger proportion.

          But to reiterate your point, it's crystal clear to me that a lot of southern whites, though they might think otherwise, clearly have race on mind when they consider economic policy and that is what sets them (us? I don't really think of myself as southern) apart from whites in other regions of the county.

          Put more simply, if everyone were of the same race or if white southerner's had no racial reason to vote, then the Republican party in it's current form would be screwed.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

          by sawolf on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:55:53 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  2010 Speaker Vote (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wu ming, MichaelNY

    Remember this?  19 Dems didn't vote for Pelosi:

    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/...

    Altmire, Boren, Donnelly, Holden, Kissell, Ross, Shuler, Giffords and Cardoza are all out of the House, leaving only 10 leftover dissidents.  Not many House freshmen ran as Conservadems so hopefully the vote will be more closely aligned to party preference.

    NY-7 in real life, @BobbyBigWheel on Twitter

    by Bobby Big Wheel on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:51:13 AM PST

  •  They just won't let it go on Christie: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:52:13 AM PST

  •  CA legistlature (6+ / 0-)

    Don't know how many more votes to count in AD 32 but the LA times has given the check mark to Democrat Rudy Salas! That just leaves the Chris Norby Race in AD 65 where many news outlets are already calling it for the Dem. Hell even the wiki has given us both seats! So I'd be very surprised if we don't get 2/3rds at this point.

    As expected many of my R friends are running around like the sky is falling in my home state. You'd almost think that the dark lord Sauron actually got his hands on the one ring to rule them all from some of their attitudes right now. The Wall Street Journal isn't helping by fanning the flames even more.

    I'm curious to see how the Dems do with their new found powers this coming session.

    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

    by lordpet8 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:53:23 AM PST

  •  MI-08 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    I decided to look at the maps to see if we have any candidates in the State House or State Senate who we could get as candidates. Just by eyeballing the different maps, I believe the following Democrats and Republicans have districts within MI-08 (I've included Wikipedia pages for those that exist; they're all worth a quick scan):

    State Senate:
    12: Jim Marleau (R)
    13: John Pappageorge (R)
    14: Vincent Gregory (D)
    22: Joe Hune (R)
    23: Gretchen Whitmer (D)
    24: Rick Jones (R)

    State House:
    42: Harold Haugh (D)
    43: Gail Haines (R)
    44: Eileen Kowall (R)
    45: Tom McMillin (R)
    46: Bradford Jacobsen (R)
    47: Cindy Denby (R)
    51: Joseph Graves (R)
    67: Barb Byrum (D)
    68: Joan Bauer (D)
    69: Mark Meadows (D)

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:55:31 AM PST

    •  slightly out of date list (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, borodino21, MichaelNY

      Byrum/Bauer/Meadows all got termed out after this year (term limits in Michigan are an absurdly brief 3 terms).

      But that just means they're even more likely to run if the President decides to turn over the reins of the CIA to a guy who spent most of the last 4yrs obstructing this President.

      Byrum is best known for this

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:03:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Byrum would be my first preference (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, slacks

        Whitmer, due to statewide aspirations, would be my second choice.

        Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 05:16:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'd pick a Byrum, too. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        borodino21, MichaelNY, slacks, bumiputera

        But, it'd be Barb's mother Dianne, who is the only Dem to ever be competitive with Rogers.  In fact, he beat her by just over a hundred votes, I believe, in what was the closest congressional election in the country, that year.

        Barb makes a nice filler in the state legislature, but she's not congressional material, IMO.  Though, her mother has largely floated around the edges of politics since her loss to Rogers, she has many more and better connections.

        All that said, this is mental masturbation.  Short of cratering turnout in Livingston or Northern Oakland and astronomical turnout in Ingham, we're never going to win, here.  The Republicans gerrymandered a lock as far as I'm concerned, and I say that as someone who lives here and think it's totally disgusting that you've got a city and county as blue as Ingham, but connected to some of the most rabid right-wing areas in the state.  Even more, Ingham County is basically the same size as it was in the 80's, while Livingston and Oakland County are pretty fast growing exurban areas.

        Had Clinton (fastest growing county in the state between 2000-2010) still been linked up, this district could still be in play as almost all of Clinton's growth came from East Lansing having annexed land in Bath Township and filling them with student apartment complexes (undergrad and more permanent post-grad).

    •  Of those, Gretchen Whitmer (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, MichaelNY

      would almost certainly be our strongest candidate, but she has bigger (read - statewide) ambitions.

    •  Vincent Gregory (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Vince Gregory is not even close to MI-08... he lives in MI-14.

      Harold Haugh lives in MI-9 in Macomb. - No way he runs.

      Also John Pappageorge does not represent the new MI-08, he lives in MI-11 but it's closer. I think Pappageorge is too old to run for that either way.

      I could easily see crazy Tom McMillin running from Rochester though.

      I think the Republican is just as likely to come from Livingston as he is from Oakland County. The Democratic candidate has to come from Ingham since we have no Democrats in Northern Oakland County or Livingston County.

      Gretchen would easily be our strongest candidate - however I think she wants AG.

    •  Bill Rogers (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, MetroGnome

      I think he is Mike Rogers' older brother and serves in the state house of representatives. I am not sure if he is interested though.

      Dianne Byrum would be the best Democrat.

      M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

      by slacks on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 08:39:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'll say it once again: Leave Kerry where he is (10+ / 0-)

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:16:03 PM PST

    •  Fine Either Way (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, AussieforObama2ndterm

      I'm fine regardless of what President Obama and Senator Kerry choose to do. I personally lean toward wanting Kerry to vacate the seat. Not only do I want Kerry to be Secretary of State or Defense (he would be as superior as Clinton and Gates), but it would open his seat up for Deval Patrick. I know some people don't like quota politics, but I find it quite depressing that African-Americans constitute 13% of the US population yet have 0/100 Senate seats. I think we should push to get more African-American Senators where we can get them, and I think Patrick would be an excellent choice. If he's our nominee, I can't possibly see Brown getting back into the Senate. Patrick is just too good of a candidate. Of course, Kerry staying in his seat would lock down the seat, and it would spare the White House of the headache of having Bob Menendez as the head of the Foreign Relations Committee. However, I personally think it's a risk worth taking (one that I don't particularly find to be "risky").

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:32:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're not worried about Scott Brown running (5+ / 0-)

        in a relatively low turnout special election?

        Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

        by Paleo on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:37:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  No (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, KingofSpades, JBraden, ArkDem14

          For one, it's not even a certainty that he would run for Senate again. I think it would be much easier for him to run for the open, more non-partisan Governor's seat in 2014 instead of the Senate seat. I think the Governor's seat is his if he wants it. However, I don't think he can win Kerry's Senate seat even if he did run. 2010 was an absolute worst case scenario, and I'm certain that the DSCC and the MADP would never allow something like that to happen again. Not only will we be in a more tenable political environment than 2010, but Brown won't be able to depend on incumbency like he could this year. If Patrick is our nominee, I have absolutely no concerns about this seat. Even if we don't get Patrick as our nominee, and even if Brown does run, I think it would still be a Leans D race at worst.

          The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

          by AndySonSon on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:49:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'd prefer Kerry stay Chair of Foreign Relations (6+ / 0-)

            He's more experience (diplomatically and he also was in the Vietnam War) and Menendez will try very hard to prevent any progress with Cuba if he gets Chairmanship.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 01:27:03 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I disagree with you on this to some extent (4+ / 0-)

            While it might be true that the MA Dems would allow such a terrible campaign to be run again, Brown would be a much more formidable challenger then he was in 2010. He has the gravitas of being a former incumbent and all the name recognition, profile and personal vote that it brings. Furthermore, some voters who liked him but preferred Warren may use the special election as an opportunity to cast their ballots for him in lieu of not doing it back in 2012. And whoever the Democratic contender is, he or she would not have President Obama's coattails -indeed, by the time of the special election, it is highly possible that he may have had to make some unpopular decisions and/or there will be an anti-incumbency mood in the electorate

            I think the main factor against Brown running, though, is that he'd have to run in the regular election in 2014 after the special election. That would effectively mean that he'd have run a senatorial campaign for virtually every one of the past four years (2011 he was already preparing the groundwork for his 2012 run). Where I agree with you is that he'd probably figure it'd be easier for him to run as Governor in 2014

            And, like you, I am quite disheartened that we have no African-American Senator in Congress. And Patrick is a great guy and he'd make an excellent Senator. I think Dems have got a very good bench of potential candidates in the event of a special election, the only problem would be if the establishment Dems insist on picking a lackluster candidate like Coakley again over candidates with more potential

        •  Brown would get crushed (6+ / 0-)

          I don't understand the fear of Brown by some Dems.  It reminds of the fear that Todd Akin somehow still could win, something only Dems thought.

          Brown just got hammered as an incumbent by high single-digits by a lady who had never run for anything in her life.

          Everyone needs that to sink in.

          Brown won the special in the first place because of a perfect storm where an anti-Dem national wave was building and state and national Dems took Coakley's victory for granted, doing nothing until it was too late.

          That type of wave won't happen again anytime soon, especailly since the GOP controls the House already.  And Dems will never take it for granted again, they will pound Brown in the face every waking moment from Day One.

          Scott Brown will never get elected to statewide office again.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 06:16:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Aye. (6+ / 0-)

      After Mass Dems worked their asses off, they don't deserve to have to do it all over again.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 01:22:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL-18: Saw on FB that Murphy is in DC today (9+ / 0-)

    for new member orientation:
    https://www.facebook.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:28:07 PM PST

  •  NC-7 McIntire by 420 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, LordMike, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    Mike McIntyre (DEM)        167,386    50.06%   
    David Rouzer (REP)         166,966     49.94%   

    http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/...

    I am not sure what's left, but no provisional votes are showing yet.

    Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

    by bear83 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:47:03 PM PST

  •  AZ-02: How is it dispiriting? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY

    If the court granted their request, then it would be dispiriting.  But this isn't going to be like the Hayes v. Tilden Presidential race where Republicans went across the country to challenge precincts and have whole voting boxes thrown out (including one in Key West that went 401-59 for Tilden).  Obviously there's more voter protections now than in 1876.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 01:24:59 PM PST

  •  Losing the Senate in 2014 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, MichaelNY

    Probably would damage the chair's career. Losing a few seats won't.

  •  Key to the Senate in 2014 - no retirements! (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, jj32, lordpet8, WisJohn, MichaelNY

    Rockefeller running will scare off Capito-Moore (or is it the vice versa?), Johnson, Levin, Harkin give us better chances to hold as well given their seniority and thus committee power.  

    I think we're 50-50 at worse to hold with the incumbents but we'd be underdogs trying to defend an open seat in any of the above races.  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 01:51:23 PM PST

  •  Finally, Dick Morris tells the truth (11+ / 0-)
    "I think that there was a period of time when the Romney campaign was falling apart, people were not optimistic, nobody thought there was a chance of victory and I felt that it was my duty at that point to go out and say what I said."

    -- Dick Morris, in an interview on Fox News, explaining why he predicted a landslide for Mitt Romney in the presidential election.

    So his duty isnt to give nonpartisan polling analysis, it's to help the GOP nominee. It was obviously before, but it's good to hear that.

    link.

  •  I think Kirsten Gillibrand (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, LordMike, MBishop1, MichaelNY

    might be the next chair for the DSCC, if Bennett turns it down.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 02:06:46 PM PST

  •  Gr-leg: austerity down to 153/300 majority (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, LordMike, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Link

    The troika nominally has a 167 seat majority, down from 175 before this most recent vote, and 179 at the election (mostly from expulsions, but a few leaving voluntarily.) This week six more PASOK and one more ND MP were expelled for voting against the third package. Democratic Left did not expel MPs that voted against the package and are still talking about leaving the coalition. Also, one PASOK MP, Mimis Androulakis, voted for the third package but then left to become an independent (rats from a sinking ship.)

    My prediction that the troika would fall by the end of the year is looking good.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 02:18:10 PM PST

  •  Great new schadenfreude site (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, tommypaine

    http://punditshaming.tumblr.com/

    Except guys like Morris and Kudlow have no shame.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 02:22:53 PM PST

    •  Amazing when Erick Erickson is totally wrong (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      but is the least wrong of the group of "pundits".

      The even more amazing thing, while polling was skewed towards Republicans, these dopey pundits are commonly talking about how it is skewed towards Republicans... not merely that the Republican skew was justified.  This leads to the scope of their delusion being 10% or more, 10 million+ voters.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 02:50:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY Senate: Felder picks the GOP (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, MichaelNY

    Elected as a Democrat, Felder picks the GOP.
    http://capitaltonightny.ynn.com/...

    Fully expecting the IDC to do the same.

    Why does New York have the most loathsome disloyal politicians?

  •  CA props boost Dem turnout (9+ / 0-)

    I found this to be an interesting read

    The tax measure, combined with labor’s huge turnout effort to defeat the anti-union Proposition 32, were turnout drivers for Democrats across the state, combined of course, with the Obama juggernaut that gave California a 2012 electorate very much like the 2008 Democratic landslide year.  That is fundamentally why Republicans did so poorly in legislative and congressional contests, even when their own polls showed they would win.
    http://www.foxandhoundsdaily.com/...

    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

    by lordpet8 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 02:33:08 PM PST

    •  Yeah, 29% of voters were under 30. Impressive! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:32:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The young voters carried Prop 30 (5+ / 0-)

        The over 29 voters in California were essentially 50-50 n Prop 30.  The 18-29 year old voters supported it by a 65-35 margin.

        The one and only disappointing result from California I can see is the failed abolition of capital punishment.  But the fact that it only failed 53-47 shows we're making progress there.  I can't find a breakdown but I'll bet the under 29 vote was solidly for ending the death penalty.

        •  My mom (a CA native) was amazed by the 47% (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, lordpet8, ChadmanFL

          she has always told me that a majority of CA has constantly wanted to keep taxes low, services high, and capital punishment legal.  She was pleased and cheered when Prop 30 passed and only 53% voted to keep capital punishment.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 05:19:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think the cost savings is a good argument (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            I prefer capital punishment to end by convincing people that it's just wrong and a violation of human rights.  But that being said I think using the rather large cost savings as an additional argument to end it is fine too.  Whatever achieves it's end works for me.

  •  Questions on PA, Eastern OH, KY, WV (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, MichaelNY

    Hey folks,
    I have a few questions for the DKE community at large. We Republicans over at RRH have discussed most of these questions extensively since the election so I'm curious for your individual takes.

    1. Do you think the GOP now solidly holds KY-06 and PA-12, or do you have a path to victory in 2014 and beyond?
    2. Seeing as the rural counties that Barr campaigned on coal in seemed to really undermine Ben Chandler, would Chander have been better off in a seat more similar to the old KY-06?
    3. Bill Johnson did rather well against Charlie Wilson in a seat (albeit a more Republican version of OH-06) that many on here predicted Wilson to win back. Is Johnson favored to hold the seat for the decade? If so, is he safe?
    4. Here in the Delaware Valley, Republicans did rather well in the newly drawn Congressional districts. Do you think the GOP holds Pennsylvania's 6th, 7th, 8th, 15th, and 16th districts for the decade? If not, when is one lost? Are incumbents safe in their seats? Which seat do you most look forward to targeting? Whom would you like to see run for each seat?
    5. Republican maps were brutally effective in the Midwest (I'm talking about Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana). For example, Sean Duffy was supposedly vulnerable this year and won by 12 points. Absent a blue tidal wave year, will Republicans lose more than a couple of seats in those states this decade, if any at all?
    6. During the final two weeks of the campaign, I saw more Shelley Adler ads than one could imagine. However, Jon Runyan resoundingly defeated her on election night. Do you want Adler to run again for NJ-03 or would you prefer a new candidate? How do you believe an open seat race for this seat would unfold?

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 02:45:37 PM PST

    •  Responses (4+ / 0-)

      1. This is a bench thing. I think KY-06 would be competitive once the coal issue recedes somewhat, especially with Crit Luallen. I'm not as sure about PA-12, but notice that Rothfus only narrowly won and I think Altmire deserves a shot at this one.

      2. Probably not.

      3. Unfortunately, I was one of those bullish on this seat. I'm eating my crow now by saying that we aren't gonna pick up that seat.

      4-5. These maps are probably effective decade long unfortunately in all years that aren't huge wave.

      6. Runyan isn't the best target in NJ. We just need to force LoBiondo to retire.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 02:53:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  My gut feelings. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      1. KY-06 might come back sometime with the right candidate. PA-12 is all yours now.

      2. Don't know

      3. Johnson is probably safe. I thought Wilson would do better, honestly.

      4. Dems could get them all in the perfect year. I think 8 is our best hope. I'd like a Patrick Murphy return.

      5. Those are all pretty solid maps. Dems could maybe beat Bob Gibbs, and maybe get MI-11 from Bentivolio.

      5. I don't know.

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

      by WisJohn on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:02:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Easy (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      1.  Yes, KY-06 can come back.  It was lost from 1998-2003 to Ernie Fletcher, who beat Scott Baesler.  PA-12 is more difficult.

      2. Maybe not.

      3. Not many were expecting Wilson would win, just that he had a decent chance.

      4. 8th is very winnable.  Maybe Patrick Murphy comes back, but there's other choices too.

      5. Hard to say, but under current numbers, a couple sounds correct.

      6. I think she would have pulled closer or won if she had a much more expansive ground operation.  It was pretty basic what she was running.  And there are other people who could run, but only if they can do better at ground work.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:11:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Welcome back (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, MichaelNY, bumiputera

      Here are my answers:

      1. Barr and Rothfus are in decent seats if they are decent Representatives. They still have to tread carefully and have good constituent services.

      2. Probably so, but Barr's campaign could have found another issue. I know Barr's campaign manager, and he's a very creative and intelligent politician.

      3. Johnson is favored but not safe. Democrats still have a strong bench in the area and might be able to win it in a midterm or with a pro-coal Democrat (e.g. Schweitzer) at the top of the ticket. I'd generically rank it Lean to Likely R.

      4. Republicans can hold those seats absent a Democratic wave, retirement, scandal, or primary from the right.

      5. Republicans would be favored in all the seats they hold in those states, but some of them are swingy enough to fall due to local factors. Probably less than five absent a 2006 or 2008-style wave. WI, MI, and PA would be target rich in a wave, though.

      6. No idea.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

      by fearlessfred14 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:33:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Answers, Pt. 2~ (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      (since I'm scrolling bottom up ;-))

      1). I think PA-12 will be a solid hold, but I'm not sure about KY-06. Perhaps I should be eating a bit of crow since I had it as Likely D, but I think it's well within reach for Democrats, although it would have to be taken back in 2014. Democrats most likely candidate, Fmr. Lexington mayor Terresa Isaac, would be an underdog, but not significantly so. I'd give her 35/65 odds of winning.

      2). No.

      3). He's safe.

      4). PA-15 and PA-16 should be safe barring live boys or dead girls, but PA-06, PA-07, PA-08 are dependent upon retirements. IIRC Fitzpatrick signed a term limits pledge, and when he retires I think Democrats have an excellent shot at PA-08; so I'll call that one as flipping first.

      5). Some, but not many, (4-5) will probably flip at some point.

      6). 54-45 is not resounding, and I would be fine with Adler running again. Even happy, if she fired her transparently terrible ad makers and media consultants; she certainly knows how to raise money at least. I know virtually nothing about NJ politics and have no idea how an open seat race would unfold.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:58:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  ok (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      1. I think Altmire can compete in PA12, which is mostly suburbs that he did well in. The red-trending rural areas are losing population, and the burbs will likely absorb some Dems from PA14. For anyone else, I think the GOP would be strongly favored there absent a blue wave. I think a coal Dem could compete in KY6 but would probably be an underdog in a non-wave year.

      2. Seems that way in hindsight.

      3. Wilson gave it his best shot and still lost by 6.6. I expect Johnson to hold it all decade, but it could fall in a wave.

      4. I think Gerlach and Dent are safe, but those seats could swing if they leave. Fitz and Meehan are probably safe for now but could be in trouble by the late teens. PA16 will be competitive starting in 2016.

      5. I think MI7 and MI11 flip in a few years. MI7's growth will probably come from Washtenaw, and MI11 will likely be this decade's (old) MI9. MI1 will go back and forth. See above on PA. OH14 and OH16 will become swing seats as they absorb people from the blue sinks they are sandwiched around.

      6. Runyan seems to be a good fit for the district and will probably be tough to take out in any case.

      7. WV3 will likely (not necessarily) flip if Rahall retires, but I think he'd otherwise be favored to hold it.

      8. Hard to say. I'd think yes.

      9. Probably at some point. KY is close to parity at the state level.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:07:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  My Responses: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      1. You guys have both of them.
      2. I don't thin they should have fucked with Chandler's district.
      3. It would take a wave to take out Johnson, and he's probably safe.
      4. 8 is vulnerable. I realize suburbs (especially well off ones) tend to vote more Republican down ballot, but that's a Kerry district. The others might require some demographic change. I'd love to see a Patrick Murphy comeback.
      5. I think Duffy and Wall are both still vulnerable under the right conditions, but those seats will be hard for us. Our likeliest pickups in MI are probably MI-6 (if Upton retires or is primaried) or MI-7 later in the decade when places like Saline grow and get more Democratic. We could still win 1 under the right conditions (although that's trending away from us) and 8's winnable in an open seat situation (although you guys would be favored. The Ohio and Indiana maps are brutal - the only potential puickup I see there is IN-2, and that's a long shot.
      6. Runyan's a strong incumbent, that seat will be hard regardless.

    •  Some responses (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      I'm glad to see you posting again here, too.

      1. Yes, probably. But both are worth a shot, in case the off-year vote is less Republican, without coattails from Romney.

      3. I'm not sure Johnson is completely safe, but the race in 2014, depending on his opponent, should start at Likely R.

      5. Just speculation here: I stand to be corrected, but it may be that Wisconsin had a somewhat more Republican electorate than it otherwise would have this year because of Ryan's place on the ticket. If that's the case, it is conceivable that some of the Republican-held seats in districts with close to even PVIs could be vulnerable in another year similar to this one, in terms of overall nationwide Congressional voting, measured purely by popular vote for Democratic candidates vs. popular vote for Republican candidates. Chances are, the next time most of these districts might be vulnerable could be in 2016.

      6. Shelley Adler ran a lousy campaign, as most blatantly shown by her idiotic ad that analogized the damage from Sandy, a natural disaster, with damage from Republican policies. I don't want her to run again. In case the seat opens, the district has a small Republican lean (around R+3, I think), so all things being equal, an open-seat race would start as Lean R.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 05:20:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  yes, NJ-03 is R+ (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        also, one problem is that the Burlington side of the district (blue) is much more elastic than the Ocean side (red).

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:54:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, Burlington County is flexible (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, sapelcovits

          the Board of Freeholders shifts around quick.  We had the majority pre-Christie, had absolutely no members on it this year, but won two races this year so we'll be back in the minority again (and I helped).  I'm eager to see the new NJ-03 numbers as Obama did a smidge better in Burl. and Ocean.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:43:26 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •   (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, bumiputera

      I'll bite.

      1.  In terms of basic seat dynamics, I'd argue that PA-12 is gone, but KY-06 could come back.  This is because although there is a hard-right turn in upper Appalachia, I'm not sure of the Bluegrass is really shifting right.  Obama's vote losses in the Bluegrass region were similar (or smaller) than his national swing, so the Democrats might rally there.  On the other hand, Rothfus is an extreme-right nutbag, who could easily fall afoul of his district, which has a lot of moderate, suburban Republicans.  I could see Altmire winning it back for a cycle, and then it going Republican again for good.  

      2.  Probably a small amount, but I don't think it would have been enough to get him over the hump.  

      3.  I think Wilson was lifted in Appalachian Ohio because Obama actually did pretty good there, improving not only in proportion to national swing, but in absolute numbers.  Still, I expect this is a one-time thing, and (particularly as Ohio becomes less important to the Democratic coalition) it will edge into being safe Republican territory just like the areas across the Ohio river.

      4.  While I wouldn't call the PA map a dummymander, I think it is the weakest (besides Virginia and Florida) of the Republican maps this year, and some of the seats will fall by 2020.  I'm not going to predict which ones, as much depends upon if there's a lucky scandal, open seat, etc.  None of the SEPA seats (even PA-16 soon!) would be all that hard for an established, moderate Democrat to hold down however.  

      5.  I absolutely think those maps hurt.  That said, I do expect that Democrats will pick at least up 2 seats in PA, and 1 seat in MI and WI this decade.  There are too many balls in the air, and particularly in MI and PA, the seats themselves will get less white as minorities move deeper into the suburbs.  

      6.  New candidate.  I'm bearish on this race though in general.  In theory it looks nice, but South Jersey isn't diversifying the way that North and Central Jersey are, and if anything the lower-middle class white voters are getting a bit more Republican.  While NJ-02 will continue to be a prize when open, I think one of the northern NJ Republican seats will come along into competitive status much more quickly.  

    •  My take is simple (4+ / 0-)

      Your side will hold almost all those seats absent either a wave election or some kind of weird unexpected sharp demographic spike of nonwhites in a single fell swoop that sweeps away a bunch of GOPers.  But the seats you identified mostly don't have the kind of demographic evolution to be affected by that.  The only districts with any potential that way, and maybe not even them, are the SEPA seats.

      More specifically, I'm amazed anyone would even mention Adler, I think as sympathetic as her story is she proved she is not cut out for this.

      One thing that needs to sink in with everyone is that Dems are really up against a double-gerrymander.  Many of these states were gerrymandered by the GOP a decade ago, then the 2010 wave let the GOP gerrymander them yet again.  The first of those gerrymanders is what let the 2010 wave crest so high in the first place, we had a lot of exposure anyway.  Now the GOP wall is high enough to prevent scaling at all.

      Realistically, the key for Democrats now is to win a lot of Governorships in these states in 2018 and 2020.  Really 2018 is the more important one because that's when a lot of key states, especially in the Upper Midwest, are up.  I'm guessing (just a guess, this far out) that it will be what ordinarily is a tough midterm with a new Dem President halfway through the term, but the GOP having controlled these states for 8 years will work against that and help Dems take some of them.  If Democrats win Governorships in PA, OH, MI, and WI in 2018, then the GOP has its back to the wall come 2022.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 06:29:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Missed my WV question & a KY question above (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
    1. Does the GOP flip WV-03 at any point this decade? Nick Rahall severely under-performed from where I was hearing the race was at even in mid-to-late October.
    2. Will the GOP flip the WV House of Delegates, the WV Senate, or both this decade?
    3. As for another Kentucky question, does the State House flip this decade?

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 02:47:57 PM PST

    •  Nice to see you back. :) (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      These are just my guesses.

      1. Rahall will retire before the end of the decade, and be replaced by a Republican.
      2. Yes.
      3. Maybe. Even though Chandler lost, KY Dems seem to be stronger then other Appalachian Dems.

      Just my gut feelings.

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

      by WisJohn on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 02:52:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for the welcome back! (3+ / 0-)

        I was involved in a few campaigns and just figured that it'd be for the best for me to stay off of a Democratic site during the prime of campaign season. I didn't want any accusations of conflicts of interest or whatever. Plus, I was rather busy with freshman year and all of the new commitments that brings.

        Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

        by IllinoyedR on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:12:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Responses (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      1. Yes, probably next cycle.
      2. Yes.
      3. Yes.

      I'm not sure whether I think that Kentucky or W. Virginia will fall first.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 02:55:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  my take (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, MichaelNY, bumiputera

      1. I think the GOP will flip WV-03 this decade, mostly because I think Rahall will retire at some point. Even without a retirement I give it greater than even odds of Rahall losing at some point later in the decade
      2. Yes the GOP will flip the WV house and senate at some point this decade.
      3. Depends on how effective the maps are that the KY house passes on try 2. Still, even with good maps I think it likely flip before 2020.

      OH-1 (born and raised ), MN-2 (college), CA-53 (grad school), IA-2 (postdoc)

      by aamail6 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 02:57:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  More: (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, ArkDem14, bumiputera

      1. Likely not.  The coal industry was freaking out this year (the brass was bullying employees to rally).  Never mind that WV's coal supply is running out and they need to diversify or perish.

      2. No, the coal issue will subside and WV elections will return to the normal pattern.  In any event, the State Senate is well out of reach.

      3. No, because Democrats will gerrymander in early 2013 and cut down the GOP caucus by more than a few and lower their ceiling.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:15:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Answers~ (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      1). He will serve one more term after this and Republicans will pick up the open seat in 2016.

      2). They will flip both of them, probably with room to spare, both time and seat wise.

      3). Yes, but, in response to wmmiv, WV will fall first.

      Mmm, and I'm glad you're posting at DKE as well, although I'm not sure I can say "welcome back" since I see you all the time at RRH...

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:43:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hrrm... (4+ / 0-)

      1.  Yes, Rahall is going to lose his seat.  It might not happen in 2014, but it seems inevitable now.  It doesn't matter much anyway, as WV will lose a seat in the 2020 census, meaning the low-seniority Republican will only have a few years to enjoy it before it's sent to Texas.  

      2.  The GOP will surely flip the House of Delegates.  The Democratic majority is down to what - eight seats now?  The state Senate is dicier, and depend on if the West Virginia Democrats can rebound in the way the Kentucky Democrats have to a limited extent.  

      3.  Frankly, I have not a clue.  Kentucky does seem to have the smartest Democratic party in the South, along with the deepest bench.  I'm frankly unsure if this will be enough however, particularly as the base in Coal Country erodes.  

    •  WV has swung faster than I thought. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      1. Yes.
      2. Yes.
      3. No, but shortly after.

  •  This generals sex scandal keeps getting weirder (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, MichaelNY, askew, bfen

    We have high ranking generals screwing publicists, nasty divorce proceedings, shirtless FBI agents, lurid e-mails and harrassing phone calls.

  •  WI-St Sen: Mark Miller Out, Chris Larson in (8+ / 0-)

    as Dem leader, per DPW facebook.

    The Mike Tate statement was particularly funny considering how he reacted when Larson Primaried Plale 2 years ago.

    In general, I think it's a good change.

  •  Barber's lead up to 829 (15+ / 0-)

    Per Giroux on Twitter:

    UPDATE: Barber leads McSally by 829 (136,785 to 135,956) after Pima Co (Tucson) update
    And he links to:
    http://www.pima.gov/...
  •  Support for HCR repeal falls sharply (17+ / 0-)

    in the latest Kaiser poll. It's 49% keep/expand vs. 33% repeal/replace.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    •  Exactly what some feared (10+ / 0-)

      that people would accept it and the desire to end it would die off.  It started with SCOTUS and was locked in with the election.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:21:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  GOP created an atmosphere of uncertainty (7+ / 0-)

        By claiming either a President Romney or SCOTUS would overturn HCR.  Now everyone knows it's going nowhere with Obama in office through 2016.  

        I also like that pollsters are starting to split their questioning when it comes to people who say they disapprove of the bill.  A good chunk of the disapproval has always been liberals who disapprove because they want the law expanded to single-payer or a public option.  That's not the same as right-wingers who want it repealed.

    •  Kaiser always is an outlier, meaning... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      ...they've always shown less support for repeal than other polling.  And by "other" I don't mean just Rasmussen, there was a window for quite a long time after the midterms when repeal polled well nationally in a lot of polls.  But never as well in Kaiser.

      Doesn't mean Kaiser is "wrong," maybe they do a better job of polling the nuance in this than others.  On the other hand, they could just be wrong.

      I want to see, as always in all polling, a bunch of polling on this before I believe the tide has turned.

      For the record, I have zero doubt the tide eventually will turn.  HCR eventually will be embraced by the broad public, as they gradually see it's making things better without making anything worse.  And I wouldn't be surprised if Obama's reelection itself proves to be the event that flips public opinion, making people concede the issue and decide to rationalize that it's time to just let the thing work and see how it goes.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 06:49:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Presidential Results by Congressional district (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat

    Has anyone started to compile a list of calculated (even if not exactly perfectly calculated) Presidential election results by Congressional district?

    I'll start out by contributing PA-08.

    Romney got 55.3398% in the Montgomery County section of PA-08.
    Romney: 22,204, Obama: 17,919

    In Bucks County... Romney: 155,876, Obama: 159598

    (155,876+22,025)/((159,598+17,919)+(155,876+22,025))=0.50054.

    Romney barely won PA-08. Kerry got 51% in the seat and Obama got 54% in 2008.

    Romney received 50.054% of the two party vote in PA-08. Fitzpatrick earned 56.6%, so he ran 6.6% ahead of Romney.

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:25:19 PM PST

    •  Fitzpatrick is an a Kerry/Romney district? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

      That's pretty interesting.

      •  It wouldn't have been (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, jncca

        before redistricting.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:55:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Of course not (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          The 2002-2010 8th district wasn't designed to be as Republican as possible.
          In 2001, the PA GOP designed the old PA-08 to take away Democratic portions of NE Philly and Willow Grove from the 1990s version of PA-13 in an attempt to win PA-13 back. this, of course, caused us some issues when Jim Greenwood retired and then-freshman Rep Mike Fitzpatrick had to defend the 8th for the first time. It's worth noting that he won Bucks County in 2006 and those portions of MontCo and the Great Northeast that were given to Greenwood in an attempt to take down Joe Hoeffel were what sunk Fitzpatrick.

          Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

          by IllinoyedR on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:05:28 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Bucks County (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera

          It's also worth noting that Bucks County has the most positive demographic trends for the GOP of any county in suburban Philadelphia.

          There's almost no minority movement into Bucks like there is in MontCo and DelCo. The movement of Philadelphians out to Bucks was largely Jewish voters leaving the Northeast, and that movement has largely happened already. Abington Township, Montgomery County also seemed to have a huge number of Jews move to it from the Great Northeast, accounting for its leftward shift in the '90s and '00s.

          Plus, if the GOP is able to make further inroads with of white, working class voters, lower Bucks could become kinder to Republicans on a federal level. Additionally, people who move out to Bucks are largely high income, white professionals looking for a place with a more rural feel that's still close to Philadelphia and that has good schools. That trend doesn't exactly scare me as a Pennsylvania Republican.

          The cultural Main Line's expansion into Tredyffrin, Easttown, and Willistown Townships has hurt the GOP in Chester County, but I think Chester County will always be swingy though not the strongly GOP county it once was.

          Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

          by IllinoyedR on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:14:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think in my state (0+ / 0-)

      precinct level (or anything other than county level) results will be available until December, so no.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 06:03:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  One thing I was very wrong about this election (14+ / 0-)

    I favor marriage equality, but I was unsure about the president coming out in favor of it during the campaign. Didnt know if that was the right strategy, thought it would just end helping conservatives rally against the issue.

    The opposite seemed to happen. GOP never really made it an issue, perhaps sensing the growing support for gay marriage, and it energized Dems, and may have helped us win the ballot initiatives.

    On a similar note, I underrated some of the Dem candidates. Brad Schneider and John Delaney in particular. Delaney won big, and Schneider won narrowly, but a win is a win, especially, considering how difficult it has been for Dems to win IL-10. Looking at the results, I think redistricting more than recruitment hurt Dems chances to gain more seats/win back the House.  

    •  John Delaney. (5+ / 0-)

      Yeah, he delivered an ass-kicking. When was the last time a Democrat won Washington County, the home of Hagerstown?!

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:47:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, Hagerstown is bluish, Wa Co. isn't. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, JBraden

        But still, much better than expected.  I thought Delaney would only carry the district with Montgomery County and a close performance in Frederick County.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:00:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  If you told me Delaney would win with over 55% (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY, JBraden, bumiputera

        and beat Bartlett by a 20% spread, I'd call you overly-optimistic as I assumed the whole panhandle plus rural Frederick County would go deep red, but I guess not.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:09:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Most of the Frederick County (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY, bumiputera

          part of the 6th isn't rural; Frederick City makes up most of the population, along with developed areas outside the city, including Urbana and Brunswick.  Most of the rural part of the county was moved into the 8th.  To show how cleanly Frederick County was split, the 6th district's portion of it voted for Delaney over Bartlett (who has represented it for 20 years) by a margin of 58-38, while the 8th's part of Frederick voted for Ken Timmerman, Chris Van Hollen's unsuccessful GOP challenger, by the exact same margin.

          Personally, I thought Delaney would win by a 10 point spread, or 12 or so at most.  Predictably, he dominated the Montgomery portion of the district (by a 40% margin), but I didn't think he'd win Frederick by so much, even though Frederick City has become increasingly blue.  And the narrow win in Washington County I didn't foresee; especially as Romney carried the county over Obama by 20 points.  Apparently his outreach to the redder parts of the district paid some big dividends (something other Democrats would be wise to remember.)

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:40:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ah, forgot that part of Frederick Co. was cut (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            To further salt the wound, Frederick is Bartlett's place of residence.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:42:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Barbara Mikulski won it (5+ / 0-)

        in her '92 and '98 landslides, when she won 71% of the vote each time. William Donald Schaefer won it in '86 when he won 82% statewide. The last Presidential candidate to win it was LBJ in '64.

      •  Wait, he actually won (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, redrelic17

        Washington county?

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 05:11:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Judy Biggert (9+ / 0-)

      It was obvious she would lose to Foster but I never thought it would be by nearly 20 points.

    •  Redistricting KILLED us, and as I said above... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, MBishop1, skibum59, bythesea

      ...one thing I haven't seen mentioned anywhere, here or in the media or by published commentators, is that we're really up against a double-gerrymander.  The GOP gerrymanders of a decade ago hurt us plenty even as we were able to eventually overcome them in wave elections, but the 63-seat slaughter we suffered in 2010 was an exaggeration directly caused by our having so much exposure from gerrymandering.

      Now we're up against a second layer of gerrymandering on top of the first, as the GOP finally has built the wall too high for us to scale.

      I'm afraid I don't see us getting the House back before 2022.  If I'm wrong and we get it back sooner, it's stunningly ominous for the GOP, it means that demographic shift is killing them to the point that they can no longer compete at all at the federal level.  That could happen eventually anyway, but I wouldn't expect it in this decade.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 06:54:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm sorry, but... (7+ / 0-)

        I just don't follow your argument.  

        Generally speaking, gerrymanders are never weaker than in the last election before the new census, as the lines which were so carefully crafted to protect incumbents tend to at the very least regress towards the mean at the very least.  

        What happened in the 2000s is a lot of "safe" Republican seats steadily became bluer over the decade, until they were basically swing districts which were easily caught in the 2006 and 2008 Democratic tidal waves.  2010 washed back the other way because very few of these seats had shifted far enough to become safely Democratic, merely to being about evenly split.  

        Which fits somewhat into your narrative.  It doesn't mean that the 2010 gerrymandering will be harder to crack in contrast however.  The only difference I see between now and 2002 for us is that the number of Demosaurs in the house is cut way down.  Natural population shifts in California, Florida, Nevada, and elsewhere will probably net us around ten seats in the house even if white suburbanites pretty much stay where they are now, which would mean we'd only need a handful more seats (seats which will remain swingy all decade), in order to get control.  

        I'd agree that I think the Republicans will hold onto the house this decade though for the most part.  But it's going to be damn close by 2020.  

        •  I don't see that you undermined my argument (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, MichaelNY

          You conceded my point about what happened in the previous decade, including that the gerrymander ultimately helped the GOP keep our gains short-lived because we were too exposed.

          And you concede we're unlikely to get the House back this decade because of further gerrymandering.

          Yes there is natural demographic shift that slowly erodes the GOP gerrymanders, but that didn't completely erode the first gerrymander, and the second gerrymander has shored up the GOP advantage through this decade.

          So I don't see any conflict between your comment and mine, and you seemed to follow my argument just fine from what I can tell.

          We can quibble over how close we'll get to 218 before the next round of redistricting, but you seem to agree we won't get to 218 before then.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 06:58:56 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Let me break it down. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            1.  While (badly done) gerrymandering resulted in crapload of swing districts, the districts were ultimately lost not due to gerrymandering, but due to national swing.  If 2010 wasn't such a debacle, we wouldn't have lost most of them.  

            2.  Even if we did control the reins of redistricting in many of these states in 2001, if we faced the same wave election in 2010, it wouldn't have mattered.  Yes, we would have had more Democrats survive 2010, but we'd just have more states like North Carolina, where the Republicans only took out one district in 2010, but used their legislative majorities to eliminate three (and quite nearly four) incumbents in 2012.  I see no reason why Republicans in Ohio or Pennsylvania wouldn't have ended up with essentially the same map they have now even if they didn't control the map-drawing in 2000.  

            3.  For that reason, I don't think the "double gerrymander" argument makes sense.  Is Pennsylvania a better gerrymander than North Carolina because it follows up on another Republican Gerrymander?  No, except insofar as Republican incumbents in winnable districts have become entrenched.  

            •  Counterpoints (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              NMLib

              We definitely lost seats in 2010 due to gerrymandering.  The point is, we gained seats in the 2006 and 2008 waves that included many that by GOP design were very vulnerable and exposed, that we couldn't win except in waves, and we ended up losing more in 2010 than we would have under "fair" maps in key states (especially the Midwest, but also elsewhere).

              And on your second point, the state legislatures themselves were elected from GOP-gerrymandered districts.  So the gerrymandering they did after 2010 was possible not just because of the 2010 wave, but because the previous redistricting allowed them to manufacture advantages to take chambers they might not otherwise have taken in 2010.  Put in "fair" maps in 2001-02, and you probably (IMO virtually certainly) have fewer chambers flipping, and less gerrymandering after 2010.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 05:54:21 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't think gerrymandering resulted... (0+ / 0-)

                In us losing control of too many state legislatures in 2010.  Keep in mind that that year Republican turnout was high, and Republican governors won in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  Unless there were split-ticket voters who wanted to still vote for Democrats at the local level, this would mean at minimum the Republicans should have captured the state legislatures in all four of these states.  Piled on top of that, Democratic margins would be run up in big cities even with nonpartisan redistricting, which would mean state maps, like local maps, have structural biases against us.  

                State senates are another matter, because in most states only half are up in a given election cycle.  Still, in some states, like Michigan, all state senators serve four-year terms, and in the others a lot would depend upon which seats were up in a given period.  If Democrats held onto majorities in any of these states, they would have been very tenuous and technical.

                Bottom line is I'd have to get down into the weeds to look at the electoral histories in each of the four states outlined above, but I don't think redistricting played a central role in gaining the trifecta.  

  •  Lungren now trailing by 3,824 votes (12+ / 0-)

    Wohoo! I hope Bera can pull this one out!

    http://sacresults.e-cers.com/...

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

    by Alibguy on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:29:38 PM PST

  •  Paul Ryan lost Janesville, 55-44 to Zerban (10+ / 0-)

    Obama won Janesville 62-37. This is Ryan's home town and was mentioned by him several times during the campaign, in the context of the GM plant closing.

    This is one reason why I think Ryan could resign from the House if he wants to run for president in 2016. I dont necessarily think he would lose the district in 2014, but he would have to deal with winning re-election in a district that is much more moderate than the 2016 GOP primary electorate will be.

    Of course, he might not want to run for president at all.

    link.

    •  Hah, nice (7+ / 0-)

      Zerban was the best performer of all of Paul Ryan's opponents.  I can't believe somebody on a conservative blog said back in late August that choosing Ryan would allow Romney to carry Rock County.  Obama won Rock County 61-38 this year.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:50:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The big question for Ryan is if Walker will run (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, jj32, bythesea, MichaelNY, JGibson, JBraden

      If Walker runs for President (which he very well might), Ryan won't dare run against him.

      As for the results from Janesville, it's a blue-collar industrial town that has remained stubbornly Democratic. Ryan depends on the Milwaukee exurbs to cancel out his own hometown, as well as Racine and Kenosha, which is why the district as a whole is R+3. He can't be Michelle Bachmann in that district, but if doing what is minimally necessary to hold down a R+3 district is insufficiently conservative for the GOP primary electorate, they're going to have serious electability problems.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

      by fearlessfred14 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:57:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why wouldn't Ryan dare? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Ryan trumps Walker.

        Ryan was the VP candidate.  He takes a backseat to no one, and in fact is the frontrunner at this point.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 05:49:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  You do not understand Wisconsin politics (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, fearlessfred14

          Walker would absolutely ROMP Ryan in a statewide primary. Nationally it's closer, but Walker is a national celebrity and would still win head to head.

          •  We are talking national politics not WI politics (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            And the idea that Walker is more a national celebrity than Ryan is total LOLOL.

            Walker is a passing blip on the national stage.  Ryan is the conservative darling.  Most people know who Ryan.  Walker is relatively unknown to the rest of the country.

            And, Walker hasn't even been reelected, and he has legal/scandal crap buzzing around.  He's not on the 2016 radar at this point.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 08:00:11 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Several other factors (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, James Allen, bumiputera

            In Walker's favor:
            1. Failed VP campaigns aside, Ryan is a Congressman and Walker is a Governor (again all discussions of Walker assume he is still governor in 2015). That's a big advantage for Walker.

            2. Walker is well known among conservative bigshots for winning an election. Ryan is well known among conservative bigshots for losing an election.

            3. Evangelical voters probably want to nominate one of their own after having to back Catholics and Mormons since Rick Perry dropped out. Walker is evangelical, while Ryan is not.

            4. Walker knows how to play dirty, and he'll pull out the stops to win the nomination.

            Not in Walker's favor:

            1. I doubt he'll go to jail, but Walker will probably have a bit of ethical baggage that primary opponents could try to use against him. He'll need to define himself early to avoid being defined as a crook.

            2. Walker's college record is genuinely damaging. He got kicked out for ratfucking in a student government election.

            3. If the GOP wants to appeal to minorities, Walker really isn't their candidate. He's a polite racist and a polite segregationist. Even Ryan would be better.

            Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

            by fearlessfred14 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:20:12 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  wow, I never knew #2 (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:29:55 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  actually, can you show evidence (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Google isn't giving me anything beyond saying it's a rumor.

                19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                by jncca on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:31:54 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  I would guess so (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Ryan had his balloon deflated by the Romney loss.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:38:11 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Not when you consider (3+ / 0-)

          the fact that he's a loser.  People tend not to come back from lost presidential elections terribly easily, even if it was only the VP slot they were up for.

          •  only one American in History (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            won the presidency after being the vice-presidential candidate on a losing ticket. FDR was the Veep candidate in 1928.

            A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

            by Christopher Walker on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:42:28 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Exactly. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

              And I can't think of many losing VP candidates that went on to be their party's nominee for president, especially in recent times.  Other than Dole, who else is there?

              •  Mondale (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

                although he was an actual VP as well

                19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                by jncca on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 12:13:12 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yeah, (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

                  I'm not counting those who actually held office in that position.

                  My point, though, is that generally speaking, one does not successfully come back from a losing presidential campaign to even become the party's presidential nominee.  This is regardless of which slot on the ticket you held when you lost.  

                  Granted, with the presidential slot, there are people like Bryan and Stevenson who ran more than once, always unsuccessfully.  But a losing VICE presidential nominee?  That's a different story.  I think Paul Ryan's national career is pretty much done.

  •  Couple notes on the House (8+ / 0-)

    The House now has 5 members who were born in the 1980s, adding Tulsi Gabbard, Joe Kennedy III and Eric Swalwell to Aaron Schock and Justin Amash's ranks.

    We also added ten true freshmen who are in their 60s (not counting Shea-Porter, Titus, Kirkpatrick or Nolan, who will get a jump on seniority); Brownley, Heck (WA), Bentivolio, Beatty, Collins (NY), Enyart, Williams (TX), Frankel, Pittenger and Cook (CA).

    And finally, there are two freshmen who are 71! Glorida Negrete McLeod and Alan Lowenthal.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:14:58 PM PST

  •  FL-18: Interesting. Murphy most touted (8+ / 0-)

    of the members of today's orientation:
    http://blogs.wsj.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:18:46 PM PST

    •  That kid's got star power. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, aamail6

      I could easily see him as a future statewide candidate.  Murphy for Senate in 2016?

      •  Let him do something of note first (7+ / 0-)

        Don't make him into the next Aaron Schock...

        •  Saw somebody (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, James Allen

          on RRH today (I stalk ocassionally now that the elections are over and the pressure's off) saying that Murphy's "one and done."  Which is funny because that's what we said about West two years ago.  also, it doesn't seem right because Murphy isn't the flamethrower with the bloody history

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:37:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  If Patrick Murphy (4+ / 0-)

            wins a second term he may well be a contender for statewide office at some point, but he should be given a chance to serve in the House first.  While he isn't necessarily one and done, reelection may be more difficult against a more moderate, or at least less inflammatory and gaffe-prone, challenger.

            Of course, being the sore loser that Allen West is, he may make it easier for Murphy by running again, and the GOP's frequent tendency to choose emotion over electability may gift him with a rematch against an ex-incumbent who may be less electable than a Some Dude.

            37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:00:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  He might be defeated in 2014 (0+ / 0-)

            We shall see who runs against him. But I wouldn't bet against him, as things stand now.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:04:59 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  He's a great fundraiser (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              And no Republican can come close to West's money, which even with the burn rate was stunning. I think he's got a good shot, especially with how Palm Beach is starting to bluen.

              24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

              by HoosierD42 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:08:15 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  He might have only been a great fundraiser (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, kleinburger, bumiputera

                because of his opponent.  I think the race is a pure Tossup in 2014.  It's far too early to say more than that.

                19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                by jncca on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:32:56 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  "Might" being the operative word n/t (0+ / 0-)

                  24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                  by HoosierD42 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:27:21 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Well, let's think logically (0+ / 0-)

                    I think there's no doubt that a lot of the money he raised was due to his opponent. Do you dispute that? If so, on what basis? We would agree that Allen West is an extremely hateful man who provokes hatred in return, wouldn't we?

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:04:53 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

  •  AZ-02: Challenged votes to be counted (11+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:25:40 PM PST

  •  PA-Gov: Dem chances just went up (10+ / 0-)

    because Corbett just said he'll run again:
    http://www.politicspa.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:33:40 PM PST

  •  Dick Morris's new explanation (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bythesea, askew

    http://www.newshounds.us/...

    I think that there was a period of time when the Romney campaign was falling apart, people were not optimistic, nobody thought there was a chance of victory and I felt that it was my duty at that point to go out and say what I said.
  •  New CA-52 numbers: Peters up 2,660 (8+ / 0-)

    So it's gone from 1,334 on Friday to 1899 or something yesterday to 2,660 today.  These provisionals/absentee ballots don't look good for Bilbray at all.  The district does include the Marine Base, though, so he has that going for him in the absentee ballots, but that isn't too much consolation otherwise.

  •  Obama by 3.5 million (8+ / 0-)

    62,600,051 to 59,123,945

  •  PV lead up to 3,477,000 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, itskevin, MBishop1, askew

    More of California is rolling in.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 05:45:32 PM PST

  •  3,550,000+ lead here in popular vote (5+ / 0-)

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 05:54:31 PM PST

  •  With Panetta staying on a bit... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    It seems that the Obama Administration and John Kerry will simply wait out Scott Brown.  The CW seems to be he's a better fit for the Mass. Governorship - and eventhough we're talking two years away, decisions have to be made much sooner than that.  Brown will have to decide within the next 6-8 months what office he plans to run for - also he's going to have to find a job somewhere to keep paying the bills once he loses his government paycheck.  

    Also 6-8 months in letting the 2012 Warren/Brown campaign fade in folks' minds, let the Brown campaign erode and fall apart so he can't simply pick up right where they all left off.  

    Also waiting 6-8 months, and the the three month Gov temp replacement before any special would put the special into Oct-Nov 2013, and the Kerry seat is up in Nov 2014 - meaning Brown would have to run for the SE and then turn around and run again a year later - hardcore campaigns, whereas any Dem winning the SE would have a much easier time getting re-election as long as they were not caught sleeping.  

    Pres Obama, Panetta, Kerry and Deval Patrick can control the whole situation and stack the odds against Brown from the get-go just with the timing of everything.  Panetta can know when he'll step-down,  Kerry can know when it's coming, Patrick can know who he'll appoint - Brown has to be constantly ready, on a moments notice to gear right up and jump in.  They can also pick the time of year that would be most beneficial to Dem or hurt Brown.  Do they make the special in early fall when the weather is still good to increase the odds for a better turnout or do they do it in the dead of winter where only the hardcore voters will get out and where the folks who like Brown enough but don't have a burning passion for him might stay home, and out of staters would be less likely to come in and volunteer for Brown?

    All the uncertainty Brown could forget about if he decides to run for Governor and the set election date for the open seat in Nov 2014.  This certainty would allow him to take a job for a year or 18 months and relax a bit from the very strenuous campaign he just ran.  

    I think Rice and Lew will be the first two announced changes of the Obama Cabinet in early February.  Geithner probably leaves first as soon as the next congress is sworn in.  Sec. Clinton will stick around only as long as Benghazi investigation in happening.  Then she'll move on.  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:03:03 PM PST

    •  Also if I was a betting man - Deval Patrick as AG (0+ / 0-)

      will happen as well.  He was in the DOJ Civil Rights division under Clinton and I have a feeling the Obama Admin is going to do a full on assault on voter suppression, long lines etc and will be frames as a civil rights issue with the DOJ leading the charge.  This will go hand in hand with SCOTUS expected to overturn parts of the VRA - Deval Patrick is a very, very compelling speaker and he'll be front and center after the SCOTUS ruling saying "Fine SCOTUS repeals the VRA saying it is no longer needed - but what is needed is election/voter protections that make it easy for any voter who is legally allowed to vote, to vote.  Nobody in America should have to stand in line for 6-7 hours to vote, nobody in America should have to be concerned that their vote will not be counted etc."  

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:13:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I know there is a radical right-wing majority (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, KingofSpades

        on the Supreme Court, but I would be very shocked if they overturned the entire Voting Rights Act, which is very clearly constitutional under the 14th Amendment. They might overturn parts of it, as you say, specifically Section 5.

        The problem is, if legislation is needed to protect people's right to vote, it won't pass the Republican-controlled House. And if the Supreme Court is prepared to overturn Section 5, it seems pretty doubtful that they'd sustain lawsuits based on the amount of time people wait in line, inconvenience and expense involved in obtaining voter ID, etc.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:47:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  What do we know about MA Lt Gov Tim Murray? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, KingofSpades, bumiputera

        He's the next in line to take over as MA Governor if Patrick took another job.  I knew nothing about him until just looking him up.  

        The one thing I noticed that could be a trouble spot is he crashed a government owned automobile driving over 100 mph.  Not exactly great judgment.

    •  I'm still not sure about Kerry getting (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, LordMike

      a cabinet appointment.

      One thing that does seem clear from the numerous stories: WH really seems to want Susan Rice at the State dept.

      So I think that will happen. I agree about Lew and Rice being announced first and Geithner leaving first. And I do think Clinton and Panetta stick around until at least March.

  •  Had to post this picture of Senators Elect Baldwin (8+ / 0-)

    and Warren walking together to the freshman Senators luncheon. I don't think it has hit me yet that these two will be in the Senate!

    http://bigstory.ap.org/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:22:48 PM PST

    •  I love that photo! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Two new liberal female senators. I think they will be working together quite a lot.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:50:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I love the freshman class - 9 new Dems (3+ / 0-)

      I really don't think either of these 9 Dems are downgrades from the person who preceded them.  Murphy, Hirono, Warren, Heinrich and Baldwin are all fairly solid liberals.  I'd imagine Kaine will be fairly similar to Webb, moderate but not overly so.
      Heitkamp I'd imagine will be similar to the outgoing Conrad, giving us fits on a few issues but pretty decent overall.  Donnelly is probably the most centrist of the bunch, but really it's about all we can expect from an Indiana Dem.  At least Donnelly doesn't seem to be the drama queen Bayh was.  

      I still cannot believe Dems now hold 25 of 33 seats that came up this election.

      Dems:
      Murphy (CT)
      Hirono (HI)
      Donnelly (IN)
      King (ME)  
      Warren (MA)
      Heinrich (NM)
      Heitkamp (ND)
      Kaine (VA)
      Baldwin (WI)

      By contrast there are only 4 republicans elected to their first full term this year.

      Flake (AZ)
      Fischer (NE)
      Heller (NV) - Well technically this is his first full term
      Cruz (TX)

      •  Upgrade the senate indeed. (4+ / 0-)

        that was a good motto for 2012 Senate races.  We got rid of the neocon Lieberman and, through great luck and some hard work, upgraded from Conrad (though it would have been great if he hadn't retired, but that's ok knowing that we held it anyway).

        And as for Tammy Baldwin, well, Ben Masel must be smiling in heaven.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:32:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        We've got a pretty solid bunch of freshmen senators joining the chamber.  We're finally breaking the hold that the conservadems seemed to have on the Senate.  Compare our position now (55 Senators) to our position just ten years ago:

        49 Senators, including the following: Ben Nelson, Zell Miller, Blanche Lincoln, Joe Lieberman, Evan Bayh, John Breaux, John Edwards, Kent Conrad, Byron Dorgan, Fritz Hollings, Tom Daschle, Bob Graham, and Jim Jeffords.  And those are just the conservative/moderate Dems that aren't around anymore, we also had Mark Pryor, Tom Carper, Dianne Feinstein, Mary Landrieu, Max Baucus, and Tim Johnson as we do now.  The actual progressive wing of the Senate caucus was quite small.

        Look at us now.  Donnelly and Heitkamp will probably be the most moderate of the caucus, but I don't see them being nearly as conservative as Zell Miller and Ben Nelson were.  Aside from them, we've got a handful of other moderates (Baucus, Pryor, Landrieu, and occasionally Carper, Feinstein, and Johnson, and maybe King).  Aside from that, it's pretty much solid liberals, and reliable Democratic votes.

        •  since when was Daschle or Edwards or even Dorgan (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          flhiii88

          moderate?

          Tom Daschle's DW Nominate score is nearly identical to Daniel Inouye's.

          John Edwards's is identical to Maria Cantwell's, as is Byron Dorgan's.

          And Conrad's is actually better than any of them except Daschle.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:35:19 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  You can subtract those names if you like (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            under some rankings they were reliable Democrats.  I still think they were a bit to the right of the new Democratic caucus, represented by the election of senators like Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren.

            Put it this way: would you be comfortable if all 55 Dem senators (plus independents) were variations of Daschle, Edwards, Dorgan, and Conrad?  I certainly wouldn't.  I remember Conrad in particular getting tagged with the nickname Kent "Kernel" Conrad because of his statement that there is a "kernel" of a good idea in Bush's Social Security privatization.  Dorgan was a bit better.  Edwards also had a reputation for being a more moderate Dem senator before his presidential runs, though I never really checked his scores.  As for Daschle, he was the Dem leader through good times and bad, but I always had the idea that he was to the right of the Dem caucus, and that Reid's ascension following his defeat marked a leftward turn in leadership.

      •  You forgot Sen. Gillibrand (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        She won election to her first full term last week.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:11:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Judd Legum predicting Pelosi steps down (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    tomorrow.

    That likely means Hoyer and Clyburn each move up one spot. Not sure if anyone else would be positioned to jump ahead of them.
    •  Who's Judd Legum? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, bythesea, bumiputera

      If true, that would be a terrible loss.  Steny Hoyer has no clue how to act as the opposition.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 08:15:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  That would mean Minority Leader Hoyer (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      I can hear the groans from the leftmost 10-15% of the caucus already.

      •  GROAN. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, bythesea, MichaelNY

        nt.

        http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

        by redrelic17 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 08:30:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hm? (5+ / 0-)

        I consider myself fairly liberal, but my qualms with Hoyer aren't just that he's very moderate. On its own grounds, I expect our leader in the House to be a progressive so that progressive views have a champion in that chamber. Beyond that, though, Hoyer just lacks charisma and doesn't give me confidence that he has the ability to rally a majority in the House. Pelosi has been a problem for many Democrats in R+ districts in the past, but there are very few Democrats left who could be harmed by her presence as our House leader. Furthermore, those remaining members have already survived through 2010 and 2012, so I doubt those few remaining members would have much to worry about with her remaining as our leader. Hoyer cannot possibly compare to her parliamentary skills, nor could any Speaker going back to at least Tip O'Neill. She is a good leader for our party and we still need her leadership. I just don't see any realistic net advantage to having Steny Hoyer as our leader in the House instead of Nancy Pelosi. I really hope she stays.

        The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

        by AndySonSon on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 08:32:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Comment (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, SaoMagnifico
          Pelosi has been a problem for many Democrats in R+ districts in the past, but there are very few Democrats left who could be harmed by her presence as our House leader.
          That's fine if you're satisfied with the Democrats remaining in the minority. If you'd like to actually have a greater chance at retaking the House sooner, we need a new Minority Leader who is going to do more than not harm the current Democratic minority membership of the House.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:05:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Disagree 100% (0+ / 0-)

            She's the only reason we ever regained the majority by holding fast against the GOP.  Someone like Hoyer is so mushy and weak, he'd never provide the contrast necessary for voters to make a deliberate choice.  The house GOP was like Hoyer for 40 years until a firebrand like Newt Gingrich came in and retook the house by fighting.

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:45:55 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Let me posit this (3+ / 0-)

            If House Dems really thought Nancy was more of a hindrance than a help, why do you think they would stick by her? The caucus may have lots of liberals but all of them want to be in the majority again.
            Yeah, she has been made a talking point - do you really think many people who vote for Republican candidates would vote for Democrats if the minority leader was different? Really? The people for whom Pelosi is a lightning rod are people who would never vote for Democrats in the first place! I guarantee most swing voters have no clue why they are supposed to hate Nancy Pelosi.

            On the other hand, everyone - including her sceptics - recognize what an incredible fundraiser she is and that she has one of the most brilliant strategic mind of the caucus.
            Again, think about it: if the people that are in the position to know better if she is more of a help or a problem are sticking by her, doesn't that say it all? Steny Hoyer has been dying to be leader for a decade and he is more moderate than she is. Why isn't he contesting her if she is that much of a burden? Why hasn't the caucus stampeded to him?

      •  I can't stand Hoyer (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, MetroGnome, SaoMagnifico

        And I really do like Pelosi.  She's just a bit of a lightning rod.  I'd almost prefer to have someone vanilla and a bit less liberal in that role.

        •  That they would then turn into a lightning rod (5+ / 0-)

          Listen, I was a big Obama supporter from the get-go and there has not been a day where I have regretted my 2008 choice. I was right. On substance and character.
          But there was an argument I did use at the time that in hindsight does not bear out at all: that Hillary was too divisive and that would make the election harder.
          Well, we now know how naive and stupid that was. Bottom line is: Republicans will always make a high-profile politician a lightning rod. They will always say he or she is an ultra liberal you have to be scared of. For God's sake they said it of Clinton or Kerry!  They even used Harry Reid to scare people! I mean, they'll turn Hoyer or whoever into an epithet in a heartbeat.
           So, frankly, I'd rather we at least have an actual liberal in position of power if she in turn is smart, efficient and hard working.

    •  Madow predicted (6+ / 0-)

      Pelosi stays!

    •  His lips to God's ear (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, tommypaine

      Listen, I think Rep. Pelosi's voting record is great, but she is just toxic with swing voters, and she presided over the worst loss for Democrats in the House in a century.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:10:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Her passing cap and trade without having (5+ / 0-)

        the votes in the Senate is enough for me to want her out.  That cost us 5-10 House seats.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:37:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  If you follow that logic, then Obama (0+ / 0-)

        should have not run for re-election.

        The last thing we need is a blue dog leader.

        Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

        by Paleo on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 02:03:07 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Then how about another liberal (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          not named Pelosi who might be more helpful in garnering votes for Democrats? I don't think this has anything to do with Pelosi's own voting record. It has more to do with questions about her mastery of strategy and just how well she represents the party when it's in the minority. She also made some statements while she was Speaker that were easily twisted, such as "we have to pass the bill for you to see what's in it." I give her all the credit in the world for passing a bunch of important legislation while she was Speaker, but the Democrats need someone who represents them effectively as Minority Leader, and I am very doubtful that she fits the bill, as witness how the Democrats have done in the last two House election cycles.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 02:17:10 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  I wonder what committees Kerry Bentivolio gets (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY, MetroGnome

    I would hope republicans place him on as few and as least relevant committees as possible to minimize his potential damage to the nation.  I know there are some nutty republicans on various committees but this guy literally does have serious mental health issues.  

    •  Well, consider they have science deniers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL

      on the Science Committee...

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:06:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hope (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, ChadmanFL

      It'd be my Christmas wish that this guy is taken out in a scandal before he is even seated in Congress.  Had we had a Dem with enough funds to reveal this guy instead of letting the Detroit dailies do it at the last minute, he'd have never made it.  His district has some crazy reds in the northern Oakland exubs, but overall, his district ain't Kerry krazy.  The big money will learn its lesson of staying oout of this when he starts voting like some backwoods survivalist.

  •  Paul Ryan is leading the fight to get (6+ / 0-)

    Cathy McMorris Rodgers out of her leadership position, the only woman in the Republican leadership. He wants Tom Price, a conservative favorite, to replace her. Have they not learned their lesson about alienating women? Apparently not!

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 08:57:08 PM PST

    •  McMorris Rodgers is pretty conservative (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, SaoMagnifico, bumiputera

      As noted in the article:

      The GOP aide disputed a key part of the case for Price — that he’s more conservative. “That dog’s not hunting,” the staffer said. “If you actually look at the voting records of Price and McMorris Rodgers there’s not much difference there.”
      It also looks like she will win. So is this another stupid move by Ryan? It seems so.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:08:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  seriously? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      how many female voters will vote Democrat over this issue? Probably less than 100 nationally.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:54:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's not about moving votes on this alone (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

        so much as perpetuating their anti-woman image, which continues to be well-deserved.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:56:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly what HoosierD42 said. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

        This is a pattern of behavior and it clearly shows that they have not learned any lessons from 2012. Whether it be moderating their image or treating women with respect. It doesn't really matter. They are continuing to hurt themselves.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:01:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I completely agree that they are hurting (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, LordMike

          themselves, but there is absolutely no way this issue hurts them one bit.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:38:19 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Some useless trivia (7+ / 0-)

    regarding NE-Gov and Norfolk (Mike Flood's home). In Nebraska, Norfolk is pronounced 'NorfoRk.' Now you have something to talk about at your next cocktail party.

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:15:04 PM PST

  •  Rhode Island could be in for quite the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    political shake up within the next few years.

    http://630wpro.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:23:38 PM PST

  •  Obama to hold news conference at 1:30 eastern (0+ / 0-)

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 02:47:33 AM PST

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