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Comment Preferences

  •  Ideas for post-election reforms (15+ / 0-)

    After seeing the results of Tuesday's house elections where Democrats outright won the house popular vote (as I expected to happen), I'm more convinced than ever that it ought to be the national Democratic platform to over the medium/long-term add mixed member proportional representation to the house.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this could be done by statute if we had unified government.  Additionally, we could institute Instant Runoff Voting or some other preferential voting method for all districts and races.  At the constitutional level we should be aiming to abolish the electoral college, even if it might advantage Dems in the near-term.

    It's so infuriating how congress has a strong institutional bias towards Republicans and that Democrats' #1 goal isn't to try to counter or de-legitimize this.  Every Democrat should be made aware that not only did Democratic house candidates get more votes than Republicans, but that we would have won the chamber without gerrymandering.

    In the near term, we should absolutely adopt independent-redistricting institutions, especially in swing or red states like Ohio that have initiative processes.  I'm not some goo-goo advocating unilateral disarmament, but let's face it we're not going to be gerrymandering light blue state's like Pennsylvania or Michigan or even Wisconsin for a very, very long time so pursuing independent redistricting can't possibly hurt.

    Furthermore, every single time that we have a Democratic trifecta anywhere we should be pushing for measures to make voting easier and turnout higher like same day registration, internet registration, no excuse vote by mail, as well as ensuring that felons aren't disenfranchised.  Also, we should be removing partisan elections from the election-running process such as having partisan secretaries of state.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:05:18 PM PST

  •  AZ-02 (10+ / 0-)

    It's still not decided. Right now Barber is up by like 850 votes. I called it for McSally at 'bout midnight Tuesday. But they hadn't counted hundreds of thousands of provisional and mail-in ballots. The final verification and counting of all ballots may last into next week. I hope Barber pulls it out. He's the Dem and I voted for the guy, I just look stupid calling it so early.
    After that, I guess I'm interested in AZ-Gov 2014.

    The free market is not the solution, the free market is the problem.

    by Azazello on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:07:23 PM PST

  •  Now for some REALLY fitting, awesome music: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, condorcet

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:08:34 PM PST

  •  Language suggestion from morning thread: (22+ / 0-)

    To be "Macked" is when you lose so spectacularly that you make your wife lose to.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:19:45 PM PST

  •  FL-18 (6+ / 0-)

    Allen West was my  congressman for a year and a half (I moved to Coral Springs FL-21 in Sept.), the only time in my life I was represented in the House by a Republican. He's lost, but he refuses to go gently into that good night. He's lost once in court already trying to fight the result, but it won't be the last.

    -9.25, -8.87 , old FL-19, new FL-21

    by Winston Smith on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:25:16 PM PST

    •  Good (5+ / 0-)

      Let him develop a reputation for being a sore loser on top of everything. Let him poison his own well so that we don't ever ever have to deal with his reprehensible self again.

    •  Wow, what was his campaign like (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      from the POV of a constituent?

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:30:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Turn-off-the-tv/radio horrible (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Nasty lies on top of nasty lies -- the one that tried to tie Patrick to terrorists was maybe the most disgusting, but they were all truly sickening.

        Murphy's attack ads were at least connected with the reality of West -- and Murphy's positive ads about his own goals and focus were very good. But West had piles of money and used it -- he was everywhere, polluting the airwaves. What a relief that's over. Now if only West would leave...

  •  The good guys win in WA! (26+ / 0-)

    http://seattletimes.com/...

    Republican Rob McKenna is conceding the gubernatorial race to Democrat Jay Inslee, according to two sources familiar with his decision.
    Let's say that again:
    Republican Rob McKenna is conceding the gubernatorial race to Democrat Jay Inslee, according to two sources familiar with his decision.
  •  Some random thoughts about the election (11+ / 0-)

    1) In some ways, I'm even happier about this election's outcome than 2008, because 2012 secures the achievements made between 2008 and 2010. I'm still ambivalent about the PPACA's effectiveness, but at least it'll have the chance to work.

    2) I'm really glad that Dems have broken out of the Ohio/Florida strategy on the presidential level that I learnt about in 2004. These results show that the electoral map has expanded even in a non-wave election.

    3) I may be wrong, but the marriage referenda mark the first time anywhere in the world that same-sex marriage has been approved by popular vote. As much as it is unfortunate that such a basic right is put to such a vote, I can't help but feel incredibly affirmed, as a gay person, that it can be affirmed by the people.

    4) I need to be less emotionally attached to what happens in US politics.

    5) I love you guys here in DKE (in a completely non-gay way, except for Mark27), you all kept me sane throughout the cycle.

    •  My random answers (7+ / 0-)

      1) I think I was happier than in 2008 but calmer. Less excited because it was and felt less momentous but happier because it felt more hard-fought as October was a rough month for the nerves and there was almost literally NO disappointment that night (whereas Prop 8 was a crushing blow in 2008). And as you said, in 2008, I was already worrying about reelection. As someone particularly emotionally attached to Barack, Tuesday lifted a huge burden on my shoulders. Now all I have to do is let him be the great President I think he is and can be. His place in History is assured and my instincts are vindicated. I will root for many Democrats in the future but this was important to me personally for him to succeed.
      2) This is why I am very wary of the grand pronouncements about demographics and what not. In the 12 years I have followed American politics closely, every Presidential election was followed about predictions about the future that NEVER pan out. Every election is different.
      3) Even though on a human level, I hope the SCOTUS decides next month not to take the Prop 8 case (which in turn lets stand the 9th Circuit Court ruling and therefore means gay marriage will be legal in CA again), intellectually, i really wish we had a chance to run another referendum and wash the affront of 2008. I still think activists made a HUGE mistake not to run an anti-Prop 8 proposition this year. They would have won.
      4) I do too but as I said above, now that Barack has been reelected, I hope I won't get to connect with another politician like this for a long time but it is rough. I love politics and will always root for some candidates and actively support others but taking it so personally makes it really hard on you. I feel you 100%
      5) I only started commenting at the end of the campaign but I am glad I did too. In spite of my rookie mistakes, most everyone has been friendly and absolutely everything has been super enriching and interesting. But quite time-eating. But as the threads start becoming less active now I miss them already.

    •  The Affordable Care Act (8+ / 0-)

      is most assuredly effective, if for no other reason than it gives tens of millions who are currently unprotected access to the health insurance market. There's no question about that. And the importance of it is hard to overstate.

      Having said that, I realize this isn't election-related, so I'll leave it there. But we can't forget what this law does. It's absolutely huge.

    •  I was happier in 2008, in some ways, not in others (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      I'd say I was happier with the election results, in spite of the pretty crushing defeat that Prop 8 represented, especially for my gay friends who live in California. In 2008, the Democrats won a trifecta in DC, and I was hopeful they'd get a lot done. Now, the president has nothing close to a free hand, given the Republican control of the House. However, many fewer Americans are bigots on sexual orientation, and that definitely makes me very happy. Also, 4 years ago, the economy was nearly apocalyptic and seemed to need a magician to rescue it, and I was also afraid the president would be assassinated soon. It seems like, in between hiring and stiffing prostitutes, the Secret Service has done a great job, and the economy was not sufficiently sabotaged by the Republicans to go back into a recession.

      So it's a mixed picture. But while the political picture looks in some ways much tougher than in 2008, the need for magicians isn't as great, and the times are definitely not as bad in the US now as they were 4 years ago. If that weren't the case, Obama would have been thrown out of office, as we all know.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:23:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm more relieved about 2012 in some ways (7+ / 0-)

        I think I was happier in 2008. But I am just so relieved this year. We dodged an incredibly huge bullet as a country, and I finally feel like Democrats have a secure and lasting coalition.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:38:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Lasting? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          andgarden, James Allen, Swamp Cat

          We'll see about that. Even if there had been a wave and the Democrats had flipped the House back, I would be counseling caution. I know about the demographics, but I think that in terms of this specific election, voters judged that the economy was better than when the president took office, and didn't trust Romney for good reason. Had the economy been worsening, enough of them would have voted for Rommey, anyway, to enable him to win.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:47:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  In a way 2012 was better (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, James Allen

          2008 was basically a foregone conclusion, the voters were going to punish the GOP for the recession, and the wars, and the mismanagement.

          2010 was infuriating: while it wasn't much more than a protest vote against the economy, in practice it was a reward for obstructionism and demagoguery. The GOP deserved to be completely wiped out for its totally unhelpful and destructive behavior once they were in the minority, and instead they won a historic landslide.

          2012 was vindication for Dems, even if it was more a result of marginal improvement in the economy than anything else. Everything the GOP did for the past 4 years to undermine the president turns out to have been for nothing. They still have the House, but their grand plan to turn back the clock in a big way is not going to come off. Ever.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:20:52 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I agree, I'm happier about 2012 than 2008 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, askew

      It does secure the progress that has been made, and gives the potential for more(comprehensive immigration reform for instance).

      A loss would have meant, reversal of that progress, and a lot of people, not just conservatives, dismissing what happened in 2008 as just a fluke: A financial crisis, an unpopular president, a controversial GOP VP nominee, and the desire to elect a black president, that's the only reason Obama got elected, and his loss in 2012 proved it.

    •  Your point 2 is huge (7+ / 0-)

      It's a big deal that in a 51-48 election we can win all those states, and exceed 50% in them to boot.

      This is a huge boost for 2016, which is why I wanted more than just eeking out 270, I want our party to have the confidence we can win all those states no matter what.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:07:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  The newly created SD-46 in NY (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    drawn by the Republican majority in an attempt to gerrymander themselves into retaining that majority and currently showing a 139 vote lead for the Democrat as they go into counting absentee and affidavit ballots of which the majority are of Democratic Party voters.

    Also the 41st where Democratic challenger, Terry Gipson, appears poised to defeat long-time Republican State Senator Steve Saland.

    Democratic victories in these 2 seats will put the Republicans in the minority.

    There are 4 (perhaps 5) Democratic Senators in what is known as the IDP, Independent Democratic Caucus, so just because the Republicans are in the minority does not mean the Democratic will gain the majority. It should be interesting and potentially ugly over the coming few months as all this gets sorted out but it starts with counting these ballots and seeing these 2 Democrats win thus removing the Republicans from their last gerrymandered hold on power.

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:34:00 PM PST

    •  If the IDP can cut a deal on who should be (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Andrew C White

      majority leader, Dems get control and Simcha Felder will likely fall into line (he beat Storbin in an extremely Orthodox and Hassidic district).  Then they could and should reopen redistricting.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:36:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Could they? (0+ / 0-)

        I assumed that at best, it was simply their chance to put in law a real redistricting commission with teeth for the next time around.
        Are they really allowed to do mid-terms redistricting? Wasn't that the issue with the DeLay redistrict in TX?

        •  If the state constitution does not forbid it. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          marieperoy, MichaelNY

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:45:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Then excuse my naivete (0+ / 0-)

            But why don't more chambers do it? I am not sure I'd like such an instable system but gee some of the most egregious cases would call for a correction.

            •  Because it starts chaos (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              marieperoy, OGGoldy, MichaelNY

              walk-outs, legal challenges, the whole 9 yards.  In CO, Republicans attempted to mid-decade redistricting in 2003, but the CO Supreme Court ruled it violated the state constitution to reopen redistricting.  Similarly, NC and VA have provisions banning mid-decade redistricting.

              Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

              by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:54:30 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  I doubt we'll see any redistricting (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            We'll have to live with these lines between now and the end of the decade. Republicans gave it their best shot... and man oh man were those district lines some of the most horrific examples of gerrymandering ever seen... and yet they lost control of the chamber and even the newly created 63rd district they drew all for themselves. Once Democrats gain control of the Senate and find a competent leader they will never relinquish it... this map or any other.

            "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

            by Andrew C White on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:54:17 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Could they make adjustments? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Nothing spectacular, just neat out the Senate map some.

              Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

              by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:55:48 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I doubt they want the headache (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                if they can control the Senate the rest of the decade they'll worry about drawing demcoratic gerrymanders then and then the Senate will be 2/3's Democratic just the way the Assembly is and Republicans will be completely irrelevant.

                "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

                by Andrew C White on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:24:28 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  The bigger headache is losing the chamber again (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  in 2014 (or 2018). I think it's worth a try, but there's no guarantee of success.

                  Ok, so I read the polls.

                  by andgarden on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:37:02 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  State Senate elections are every 2 years (0+ / 0-)

                    in NY so it is an entire decades worth of election cycles. They won't do it anyhow. There is too much else to do. There would be too much pushback. And their odds of keeping the chamber once they have it are strong enough anyhow. NY is 2/3's Democratic. The only reason they haven't taken the Senate already is the inertia of Republican incumbency and their own incompetence. Redistricting will not happen until 2022.

                    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

                    by Andrew C White on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:47:36 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Not sure how to respond to this (4+ / 0-)

                      Your subject is implicitly concedes that I am right. Then the rest of your comment makes excuses for why it won't happen (or perhaps doesn't need to).

                      The bottom line for me is that Republicans wouldn't have a very hard time making this decision. They would try. And they would be right to.

                      Ok, so I read the polls.

                      by andgarden on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:50:41 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I know NY politics (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        and I can guarantee you that there will be no mid-decade redistricting. The current lines will stand until 2022.

                        Yes, if you were a democrat you would want more favorable senate district lines. The current map is as favorable to the Republicans as a map possibly can be... and they are about to lose control anyhow. They have been holding several districts that vote Democratic at the federal and statewide levels. This is due to inertia and incumbency. Once those districts flip to democrats they are likely to stay flipped. A prime example is the 63rd district they created out of thing air (there were only 62 district before). This district voted 53% for Obama and yet they drew it slicing through 5 or 6 counties for one specific Republican Assemblyman to win... and he is going to lose it once the final vote is tallied.

                        Democrats don't need to redraw the lines. They just need to be competent enough to win the elections they should win and to not disgust the electorate once they do.

                        The final piece of the puzzle is all the competing forces involved in the recent redistricting battle. They have no desire to get involved in that war again. It is a can of worms they don't want to open. The Assembly doesn't want it opened. The Governor doesn't want it opened.

                        It won't happen.

                        "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

                        by Andrew C White on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:46:37 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  NY Assembly (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      BeloitDem, MichaelNY, Andrew C White

                      The NY Assembly is more interested in retaining their own gerrymandered lines.  Wont open that can of worms.

                •  That the only thing that is keepin the NYGOP alive (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Andrew C White

                  the fact that they've held the senate for most of the history of NYS. Hopefully we can hold it till the next census. And finally once redistricting kicks in the NYGOP will be officially extinct.

                  Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

                  by BKGyptian89 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 09:54:16 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  Well that's the key (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        who will be majority leader? Current Democratic leader is John Sampson and that's why the IDP walked out. I'm sure Klein wants it to be Klein. I'm sure Sampson will fight that as will others. But Sampson isn't guaranteed of keeping control of his own caucus (minus the 4 or 5 IDP's) so we'll see what happens. The fact is that the Democratic caucus is lacking in a solid clearly acceptable leader that could garner support of the various factions... so... we'll see.

        And then there is Cuomo to consider and where he will throw his support.

        "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

        by Andrew C White on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:52:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  But they won't, at least not for Congress (0+ / 0-)

        Maybe they would for the State Legislature, out of self-interest.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:24:48 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think the best way to (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        change people's perceptions that the Senate Democrats are corrupt is to do something that people will see as corrupt.

        Besides, there is an "independent" redistricting statute. It would look really bad if they got rid of that unless they replaced it with a truly independent redistricting commission. Cuomo would also veto a repeal. The only way that statute is going anywhere is if the courts strike it down.

        M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

        by slacks on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:19:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Could they pass something Issue 2-style? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          The "independent" redistricting statute is clearly pretty toothless considering how nasty of a gerrymander the GOP got through it, and I wouldn't think that real independent redistricting would look corrupt. Any fair Senate map should be a strong Democratic map in a D+11 state.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

          by fearlessfred14 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 08:20:56 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  They passed the statute after (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            they drew the maps. The statute allows the leaders of the assembly and the senate to appoint people to a commission. The maps then need to be approved by a vote of both chambers.  If the same party controls both chambers, the lines must be approved by a 2/3s vote.

            M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

            by slacks on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 02:44:05 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  No! (0+ / 0-)

        The IDC (AKA the "Make Jeff Klein Majority Leader Caucus") is the most brazenly corrupt and politically syncretic group of crooks in the NYS. Having Jeff Klein as majority leader (which is the only deal they would ever strike) would be worse than Skelos. Politically all they care about is patronage deals and (sort of) property tax relief. Making Jeff Klein majority leader would be begging voters to put Republicans back in power; even if we have to let Skelos stay on as majority leader, with a plurality of votes, he'll be weakened and reliant on the IDC. Which is just what Klein wanted when he struck the deal for this ridiculous gerrymander (although I'm sure he couldn't be happier we did so well with it, so that now he and his band of wannabe Pedro Espadas can play us off of each other.) We should not play that game. If it comes down to staying out of power and bargaining with Klein, it's best for the real Democrats to just stay in the minority (for now.) Nothing could be worse than getting involved with the IDC, it's the political equivalent of selling our souls to the devil. It might sound like a good idea now, but Klein/Satan always gets the best of the deal in the end.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 09:46:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  You gotta read this... (11+ / 0-)

    I know it's redstate, but it's really good.  It basically lays out the case that incompetent consultants sabotaged the Romney campaign in order to milk more money--in other words, the Romney campaign got Bain'ed:

    http://www.redstate.com/...

    No wonder the Romney campaign thought they were winning.  The numbers they were getting from their incompetant consultants were totally bogus.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:37:09 PM PST

  •  IN Sen (7+ / 0-)

    Just for fun, Mourdock's concession speech. He gets pretty pissy in the end. How dare the liberals attack him for standing up for his principals!!!

    http://indiana.onpolitix.com/...

    Support Shelli Yoder for Congress! http://www.shelliyoderforcongress.com/home/

    by drhoosierdem on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:39:48 PM PST

  •  I'd like to see the 2014 elections result in a (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, LordMike, bythesea, drhoosierdem

    Democratic majority in the House!  

    Also, there's a rumor here in Oklahoma that Inhofe will retire from the Senate when his seat is up in 2014. Potential replacement being talked up: Dan Boren from the House. I'm not a big fan of his, but at least he's a Dem (sort of, a proud blue dog) and we could hardly do worse than Inhofe.

    In addition, we should have a special list of those targeted for removal from their positions. Of course, it would include McConnell and Ryan from the House, Bachmann from the Senate (although she was just re-elected), and governors Rick Scott and Scott Walker.

    I don't think we should relax for one minute between now and some time after the 2016 elections.

    Eliminate tax breaks that stimulate the offshoring of jobs.

    by RJDixon74135 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:42:38 PM PST

  •  Hearing that Billbray is losing to Scott Peters (6+ / 0-)

    that would be sweet.  he carpetbagged a north San diego county  district one year, then carpet bagged back south again during redistricting. love to say buh bye to Brian.

  •  AZ numbers (9+ / 0-)

    (reposting from the live digest, since I posted it after this thread came up)

    Can't decide if it's worth spending much time following AZ-Sen, but worth noting that Carmona won the new batch of ballots counted in Maricopa today by 11%; he is trailing in the county overall by about 7%. And Carmona won the 42000 ballots counted today in Arizona by 6%. (About 500,000 remain, I believe.)

    In AZ-02, McSally is back ahead thanks to today's Cochise County update: She netted 622 votes, so she is ahead overall by 36 votes (down from 81 this morning).

    The good news is that she underperformed among the 3700 ballots counted in Cochise County today: She had won yesterday's batch by 25%, and she is up 21% in the county, but won this new batch by 16%. Barber, on the other hand, is getting what he needs from Pima so I'd say AZ-02 is looking good.

    •  Rate (5+ / 0-)

      If Carmona keeps up that same rate of win among the remaining ballots, it'll get him a net 30,000 votes against Flake.

      But he's currently down just over 75,000. The lib. candidate will get around 4% of the remaining ballots for 20,000 total. So Carmona needs to win 56% of the remaining ballots   (280,000) to Flake's 40% (200,000), which isn't going to happen.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:07:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  thanks Taniel! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      though I am going 'oh crap' on the Cochise county dump.. checked their  website less than an hour ago and it still was not posted!

      i still think that Pima wil pull us out of the Cochise ditch!

  •  Rough estimate in IN-09 (8+ / 0-)

    Romney 58.25, Obama 39.55, Johnson 2.20. I had to guess on 3 of the counties based on my previous diary on IN-09. So Shelli Yoder, badly outspent, over performed the President by a little over 4 points. Not too bad for being outspent so badly in a tough district.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:02:27 PM PST

    •  The old IN-09 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      would have been about 55.90 Romney, 41.95 Obama, 2.15 Johnson.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:19:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  My estimate of the popular vote (12+ / 0-)

    Obama should end up winning by about 4 million, 64-60 million, or around 3%.

  •  one question for AZ gurus (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus, MichaelNY

    who will be the Dem party head  in the next few years?

    i think that will be key to  being strong out of the gate in 2 years...

    also  , I  give up on citizen vote tallying for the week. it is time to kick back ,have a beer and watch the rain blow into the desert night!

    i so appreciate the information that Baja kossacks and Daily kos shares..it keeps all of us in the loop and keeps us motivated.

    •  Well I hear that Andrei Cherny is free...Joking (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think it depends on what strategy gets employed... Basically we maxed out on redistricting... We got all the blue state senate seats and all bar one of the blue state house seats (a Tucson seat that I guess wasn't helped by a close race from Barber).

      In the few years that AZ Dems have been successful since the 70s, it was only with the rural pintos... And they are just not really a force any more outside of a couple of legislative districts.

      So to win in AZ we either win over conservatives or pray that the GOP nominate far right candidates allowing us to win more of the suburban Phoenix vote.

      So yeah interesting to see who steps forward... And whether they are interested in the role or just want to use it as a stepping stone to bigger and better things.

      maybe that should be what we hope for .... That the dem chair is actually not going to run for election to anything else!

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

      by CF of Aus on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 03:02:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  energy issues (0+ / 0-)

    this applies to a lot of us who live in  currently red states in the west  as well as the rest of the nation.  energy issues : including  mining  and extraction, pipelines, power generation, power transmission, solar, wind, coal , gas, nuclear, oil, fracking , public lands and related water and air issues will continue to heat up .

    the anti regulation sentiment, the big money is moving in as fast and hard as possible.
    the goal of making  the US energy independent is also building.
    somehow our legislators have to find a way to deal with this.. we need to take a look at the bigger picture as well as pay attention to  what is happening covertly and overtly in each state....

    that isn't an election wish per se, but it's something i'll want to pay closer attention to in the coming term... and something i will want to use to evaluate candidates.

  •  What happened to Mark27? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, bythesea

    He vanished off the face of the earth it feels like.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:46:57 PM PST

  •  Bob Somerby makes a good point (7+ / 0-)

    (hard to give a short excerpt):

    Did Romney think he was going to win?:

    Aside from the fact that the New York Times has politely reported the claim as a fact, why should anyone believe that Romney and his team “were sure they were going to win all the way to the end?”

    Are we supposed to believe that claim just because Team Romney says it?

    . . .

    Why should people believe this claim? For ourselves, we have no idea.

    A bit of historical context: The GOP always invents a tale, or a set of tales, which help explain away defeat. Example:

    In 1992, exit polls showed that Perot voters would have split evenly between Clinton and Bush. But the GOP began spreading the claim that Perot cost Bush the election.

    This tale is now widely accepted as fact. . . .

    It may be the liberal world's greatest skill: adopting the face-saving claims of the GOP. Given the weird logic patterns of the current GOP, the claim that Romney believed he was going to win may be the latest example.

    Truth told, I'm not sure. I think there's a non-zero chance that Neil Newhouse was drinking the Gallup Kool-Aid.

    On the other hand, I think it's possible that the insiders are trying to cover up an elaborate con game they played on their own base to make them excited and likely to turn out.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:55:43 PM PST

  •  Interesting on Comment on Kentucky (10+ / 0-)

    tonight was that they thought the Democrats will try to get Rep. Sannie Overly (D-Paris) to take on Rep.-Elect Andy Barr (R-Lexington) in the 6th District in Kentucky. She represents rural counties and part of Lexington and may have the right ideological profile for the Dems to regain the seat. She was unopposed in 2012.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:04:37 PM PST

  •  Romney hits the 47's (12+ / 0-)

    Right now on Google Election it shows Obama up 50.6 to 47.9.

  •  Since we were discussing it in Thursday's digest (9+ / 0-)

    here's a map Colorado Democrats could have passed had we held onto the state house in 2010:

    Photobucket

    Photobucket

    The 2nd adds Fort Collins and Greeley, but Polis retains a large enough chunk of the Dem voters in the district to not worry about a primary challenge.

    The 3rd drops Grand Junction in exchange for southern Colorado Springs and zooms to the left.  Tipton would lose handily to Sal Pace.

    The 6th drops Douglas County and adds parts of Adams County and a little sliver of eastern Denver and gets about 6% more Dem than the real version.  Miklosi might not have been our nominee, but it doesn't matter since this is safe Dem.

    My favorite part of the map? Coffman would most certainly run against Lamborn in the 5th, while Tipton and Gardner both represent about an equal part of the new 4th, so Tipton might bail for that district too.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:48:07 PM PST

  •  i want to compliment and toast all (5+ / 0-)

    of the good candidates who ran in difficult  districts, whether they won or lost.. they knew the odds were against them  but they believed they could win,they  believed they could make a difference ,educate voters, and pave the way for candidates in years to come.

    These candidates and their volunteers worked long hours for a long time, in red towns ,in red districts, in red states.

    their names may not show up on the 2012 election rockstar lists , but they deserve  some love and our thanks!!

  •  Is there a list of flipped House seats... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY, itskevin, askew

    ...on both sides?

    Maybe DKE can do one?

    I'm finding I really can't track House races at all in a Presidential election night.  The Presidential and Senate races suck up all my time.

    I still don't have a grasp of what all we lost, beyond some NC seats, Chandler, Critz, and the open seats in Arkansas and Oklahoma.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:15:10 PM PST

  •  ND Sen (11+ / 0-)

    I noticed on Heidkamp's Facebook page she is doing a very extensive statewide thank you tour. How common is this? I think it might be a good sign she wants more than one term.

    Support Shelli Yoder for Congress! http://www.shelliyoderforcongress.com/home/

    by drhoosierdem on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:52:31 PM PST

  •  Newsom Payback (11+ / 0-)

    Some of you may have read my rant about Newsom's self-interested undermining of the Prop 30 campaign the other day.

    Well, now that Prop 30 has won, a delicious anecdote ...

    Following Brown's victory on Tuesday, (...) his supporters thumbed their noses at the many politicians and political observers who criticized Brown's campaign while it was being run.

    Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom had criticized Brown's campaign rhetoric as misleading in a recent radio interview.

    On Twitter on election night, Gil Duran, Brown's press secretary, sent Newsom a clip of Elvis Presley singing, "Are You Lonesome Tonight?"

    From this article: http://www.sacbee.com/...
  •  Cabinet Appointments (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Anyone want to toss out some names for Obama's second term? Should have open spots for State, Treasury, Commerce, Transportation, CIA Director and probably Attorney General if I had to guess. Many more sub cabinet spots will open up as well naturally.

    Support Shelli Yoder for Congress! http://www.shelliyoderforcongress.com/home/

    by drhoosierdem on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:14:02 PM PST

    •  EPA as well. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, marieperoy

      Apparently Lisa Jackson is interested in a political career, either in New Jersey or New Orleans.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:23:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  What I read (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      State: Obviously most people think it is between Kerry and Susan Rice and that the CW that Kerry is favorite because of Benghazi isn't a sure thing because that would mean Menendez takes over Foreign Affairs Committee in the Senate and he has contradicted the WH on foreign affairs constantly in the past four years and they can't stand him. Maybe a wildcard here that we don't expect.

      Treasury: Jacob Lew is almost a sure thing here.

      Commerce: I don't think many people care about that one but from the grapevine this is a post where many of the potential "first openly gay member of cabinet" could be named (like Fred Hochberg or John Berry).

      Transportation: Like LaHood or Mineta, it will be a random local official name.

      Attney General: Napolitano really wants that one but the rumor is around Deval Patrick. But because he promised to stay one until the end of his term, I think she may get it. Granholm was mentioned by someone on here and while it is unlikely, she'd be fun in the post. And of course if Janet is chosen, we need someone at Homeland. Maybe the latter is the post Barack chooses to put the token Republican cabinet member in?

      Defense: You forget to mention Panetta is leaving soon too as he is tired to commute. Many many names here so no way to know. His second in comand Ashton Carter is in line and so is Michele Flournoy. I'd bet Obama picks the latter to have a "first" woman to be head of Defense and she is a recognized expert. Also a post where many Republican names are bandied about (Chuck Hagel ... urgh) but I'd be surprised if he gave it back to a GOPer after only 18 months in Dem hands for the past twenty years

      Interior/Energy: Salazar also is leaving and the WH can't wait to be rid of Chu. I saw no speculation as to who will replace them but we can assume it will be somebody from the West in the first case.

      Kathleen, Shaun and Arne are pretty safe I think and I hear they want to stay but I don't think anyone is very impressed with Hilda so I bet she leaves too. I mean, the fact she was NOWHERE to be seen during the campaign even though she is the Latino member of cabinet is so telling that they don't care for her very much.

      •  Did any cabinet members campaign? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 08:19:05 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Gov Gregoire for Interoir has been mentioned (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Did anything come from the prostitute issue with Menendez?  Maybe enough to keep him out of the Foreign Affairs Chair? Who would be the one to leapfrog him? Barbara Boxer?

        I think Kerry is a lock.  I think Lew is a lock. You're right about commerce as well.  

        Could Ash Carter be willing to stay on as #2 if Flournoy was brought in for the SecDef job?

        I like the idea about Napolitano moving to AG and using the Homeland Security spot on the token Repub as well.

        If LaHood is done, I've heard LA Mayor Villagarosa could get the gig.  

        They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 09:45:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Villa & Kerry (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Villa would be interesting pick and makes sense since his advocacy for LA subway to the sea is probably his big legacy item.

          But I am very skeptical Kerry is a lock. They can't use the prostie thing. It is irrelevant, landed with a thud and using it as justification would be taking it as true when the media has shrugged it off as thinly sourced. And Reid will probably advocate against a special election that Dems can win but that will cost money which we need to pile up for a tough 2014.

          •  If it's not Kerry, than who though? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I think Rice has been disqualified by the Benghazi issue.  GOP would LOVE to make it huge focus and party line vote against her with SoS usually gets strong bipartisan support as it's supposed to be a non-political role.  

            I think the dinner with Patrick at the WH is Pres Obama trying to set-up things and seeing if Patrick would run himself for the open Senate seat.  If they could get a top level recruit to run in the special election they could beat Brown.  Also Patrick would be the only African American Senator if he were to be elected.  Patrick does seem like he wants to run for the Presidency in 2016 but I think timing would work against him (as much as it shouldn't matter) and I think Hillary is running and the deck will be cleared for her.  

            Patrick could go to the Senate for four years and then in 2016 under a Clinton Admin he could get a cabinet spot with Brown a non-entity by that point.

            They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

            by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 11:44:37 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's the question (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              If not Kerry, who? What I read though is that HIllary may stay on a couple of extra months to finish the Benghazi clean up and that is why observers are not totally excluding the possibility of Rice.
              I personally think she is going to end up at the NSC since I hear Donilon wants to take other jobs (chief of staff maybe although i see Dashle's name coming up a lot today).

              Patrick as Senator would be fun but he really wants A-G. I dunno. Definitely agree that at the first occasion we do need to work hard on electing an AA Senator. I imagine that when Barbara Mikulski retires, this will be an opening but it is a disgrace we don't have any yet.
              Oh and I think he'd make a fine Presidential candidate but everything about him is way way way too reminiscent of Barack. It'd feel like we are running the same candidate twice in a row. Plus, come on, I would think that by now parties would have learned  not to run politicians from MA as Presidential candidates anymore LOL

            •  What did Rice have to do with the incident (0+ / 0-)

              in Benghazi?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 12:55:40 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  she claimed it was because of the movie (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                by jncca on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 12:57:41 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Wasn't that the initial CIA assessment? (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Or am I totally off with that?

                  29, M, Swingnut, CA-38 resident. Chairman of the DKE Ginger Left-handed caucus. Huge Angels, Lakers, Bruins, Kings, Galaxy fan. Follow me on Twitter: @Artesialove

                  by uclabruin18 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 12:58:37 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  yes (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

                    but it turned out wrong, and she was the one who most publicly stated it.  she sounded very definitive, far more than she should have been.

                    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                    by jncca on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:18:43 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

        •  Homeland Security should defintely not be a GOP (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          pick. If we have to have another GOP pick, I'd say transportation when Ray LaHood leaves.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 02:51:13 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  What's wrong with Chu? n/t (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY
      •  What do they have against Chu? n/t (0+ / 0-)

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 12:53:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  transportation (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, drhoosierdem

        Earl Blumenauer.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:18:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  That's interesting about Menendez. I hadn't heard (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        that. Is it just the Cuba foreign policy differences or overall?

        You are wrong on Hilda. She can't campaign as a cabinet member and she has been very effective as head of Labor. It's just not a position that gets lots of media coverage.

        Kathleen stays through 2014 implementation of Obamacare.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 02:50:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  The CW is that Solis isn't going anwhere, at least (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, askew

        for the foreseeable future. They like the work she has been doing.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 04:30:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  What I've heard (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      State - John Kerry - because he's earned it, he's qualified, and if he asks for it Obama won't be able to refuse him. I personally think he's been an excellent chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and I look forward to his selection.

      Treasury - WHCOS Jack Lew - rumor is that Obama personally requested this.

      Commerce - will be given part and parcel to Wall St.

      Defense - Chuck Hagel - because Obama will want a prominent Republican in his cabinet. Hagel will make an excellent ally in the DOD for the upcoming austerity deal, and, despite being a Republican, his prominent criticisms of how the Iraq war has handled make him a safe pick with the media. His endorsement of Kerrey is the icing on the cake for selling his selection.

      AG - Janet Napalitano - because she's earned it and Obama's inner circle likes her. I don't know why I keep hearing Gov. Patrick's name, because I think he wants to run for President, and I think he realizes AG is not a good place to run from.

      Energy - Cathy Zoi - I honestly don't know how likely this is, but she's the only name I like that I've heard mentioned. Many corporate private sector names are floating around, and I'm not optimistic about this.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 10:39:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  All this is coherent (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But I still think there needs to be a woman at the table for foreign affairs stuff. If this scenario comes to pass, I would bet Susan Rice gets the NSC.
        And I do think giving Defense to Hagel would be a shame. That means that in the past 15 years we would have had only 18 months of a Democratic Secretary of Defense.

      •  There isn't a prominent Republican in Obama's (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tommypaine

        cabinet now and there certainly doesn't need to be one. You have too many men in your picks. Obama will appoint at least one woman to State or Defense.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 02:53:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  ? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jncca

          I predicted two male-to-female picks (Energy and AG) and one female-to-male pick (State) so I don't know why you think Obama's team would object to the gender ratio of this cabinet. But, again, I don't think that the administration cares that much about keeping a gender ration in the cabinet in any case, I think they're interested in installing their preferred political allies, and that they could care less what gender they are.

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 03:17:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Hmm, let's see (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

      I think it's pretty much understood Sen. Kerry is likely to be named Secretary of State.

      Secy. Napolitano moves to Justice. Not my top choice, but I think it's likely.

      Susan Eisenhower to Homeland Security? I dunno, I was surprised she didn't get a Cabinet spot last time, and she probably won't this time, but I'd like to see her in the administration. Secy. Shinseki is another option, rotating over from Veterans Affairs.

      Commerce is sort of the Defense Against the Dark Arts position of the Obama administration. I think President Obama wants to do away with the position anyway.

      Raj Date seems like a logical choice for a new Secretary of Business position. Not sure the Senate would agree.

      For Treasury, Jack Lew seems like a lock.

      I'll guess Ron Klain is promoted to chief of staff.

      If Secy. Salazar doesn't stay on at Interior -- and I think he will -- what about Gov. Schweitzer? He's not a major environmentalist figure; if Obama wants a "greener" face at Interior, Gov. Gregoire seems like a better option. Obama could also make a preemptive 2014 strike and tap Gov. Parnell, if he wants to pursue a "Cabinet of Rivals" route, but 1) I'm not sure that Parnell would accept, and 2) the environmental lobby would probably have a heart attack. Not that then-Sen. Salazar was seen as such a "green" choice, either. I suppose another cross-party option in the same vein would be Gov. Sandoval.

      I'd be surprised if Secy. Chu remains at Energy, but I don't know who would be a likely successor. That will probably come from within the industry.

      I think Secy. Panetta will and should remain as Secretary of Defense.

      Acting CIA Director Morell is pretty much guaranteed to be named to the position on a permanent basis.

      Secy. LaHood has said he is leaving as Transportation Secretary. David Bragdon would be an outstanding choice to replace him.

      Why not give Veterans Affairs to Rep. Chris Gibson? It's a good cross-party appointment, it gets a fairly well-liked congressman out of a swing district, and he's eminently qualified for the job. Richard Carmona would also find a good home in the position, though I'd rather keep him free for a 2014 or 2016 run.

      If Secy. Solis wants to do other things -- I think she'll stay, but she might not -- then maybe Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak?

      I definitely think HUD, Education, and HHS secretaries will stay on.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 02:31:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Chris Shays 2014? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, Paleo

    First of all, a great must-read if you haven't done so already:

    Deluxe Nutmeg State Republican Catfud!

    But as juicy as this is, I've always been under the impression that Dan Malloy would be one of the more vulnerable Dem governors running in 2014. I know a recent poll has found him rebounding. Any news on which Republicans are interested in running against him, besides perhaps Shays?

    28 • Gay Male • CA-35 (new) • Pragmatic • Progressive • Liberal • Democrat

    by BluntDiplomat on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 12:31:48 AM PST

  •  Just found out that President Obama... (10+ / 0-)

    Won my precinct with almost 81 percent of the vote.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 12:48:53 AM PST

  •  MN state House 11b recount (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, James Allen

    Mary Franson. Remember her, she's special.
    http://blogs.citypages.com/...

    She leads by 1 with 100% in.
    http://www.realcapitolview.com/...

    I'm gonna go ahead and ask for any and all super natural, divinine interventional, vodoo loving, mojo-istic, space time continuim bending, ghostly apparition loving, meta-physical help we can get.
    Just in case ya know.

    I can't think of a nut we gotta FIRE more than her.

  •  SEIU 70% Crossroads 6% (6+ / 0-)
    The SEIU spent more than 70 percent of its funds on winners, for example, while Karl Rove's American Crossroads and its nonprofit affiliate had only a 6 percent success rate.
    http://hosted.ap.org/...
    •  That's remarkable! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, MBishop1

      To be fair, a lot of the money on both sides was spent on the Presidential race. But SEIU seems to have much better judgement in Congressional races as well.

      Honestly, that conservative SuperPac money would have been better spent defending state houses. But the Super Pac donors get more fired up over "taking back" legislative bodies rather defending them.

    •  I bet a lot of that has to do with the president (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I believe both groups invested heavily in the presidential election

  •  Floriday to finish its counting by noon (6+ / 0-)

    Maybe then the networks and the AP will finally call the race.

    http://www.theledger.com/...

  •  MI-11: Freep article about Curson (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Audrid, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Here

    Most interesting lines (to me):

    Instead of the official certified results, the House clerk will accept a letter from the Michigan Secretary of State that says the unofficial results show Curson is the winner.

    He will get two lifetime benefits, however: He can go onto the House floor whenever he comes back to Washington and can park for free at vacant spots at the Capitol.
    Saddest line:
    Bentivolio, a retired teacher, veteran, part-time Santa Claus and reindeer rancher, will take over the 11th District post Jan. 3.

    31, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

    by borodino21 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 06:03:07 AM PST

    •  How's the postconservatism coming along? :D (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      borodino21

      I find the word strangely interesting.

      •  That's always a difficult question to answer (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Audrid, DCCyclone

        I generally keep my political and theological noncomformity hidden from the congregation at the church I'm involved in. I don't go to services anymore -- too infuriating -- but I'm involved in a ministry that trains lay people to support other members of the congregation when they're going through tough times and supervises them as they do so. I'm on the ministry's leadership team and am actually the training director. They value me and I enjoy it; but to steal a metaphor, it's tough being "in the closet" and casual conversation gets awkward sometimes.

        My parents basically know, but we don't talk about it. My siblings have their own divergences from the subculture and we talk about it sometimes, but they're not quite in the same place I am -- not as self-consciously alienated (particularly my sister). I do have a strong group of friends that I'm not only "out" to, but who are likewise nonconformist themselves, identifying as part of the emerging church movement.

        As that answer shows, my "postconservative"-ness is rooted even more strongly in my religious identity than my political one. But I've been struck this week by how similar post-2012 schadenfreude is to post-2004 schadenfreude. My presidential voting record is Bush-Bush-Obama-Obama, so I'm part of a relatively small group of people who went through all of those elections on the winning side. There's still a weirdness to having switched sides; and the echoes between the '04 and '12 have really underscored that this week.

        31, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

        by borodino21 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 11:27:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Black Democrat is new Daytona Beach Mayor (7+ / 0-)

    Democrat Derrick Henry was elected Mayor of my city by a 56-44 margin in the nominally non partisan open race.  Usually the candidates don't mention their party ID in our local races but Henry wisely did, tying himself to President Obama and locking down the large black community vote in the city.  His opponent was a republican backed by the business community.

  •  2 ways for Democrats to take back House in 2014 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

    1) House Republicans double down on the crazy and do something stupid, such as impeaching Obama for Benghazi (worse than Watergate!) or some other pseudoscandal. Another possibility is that they shut down the government or hold the economy hostage again over raising the debt ceiling. In these scenarios, Democrats and independents turn out in large numbers to punish Republicans.

    2) House Republicans cut a deal on taxes. Even if the terms of the deal are favorable to Republicans, it will be a perceived as a victory for Obama and hence loss to Republicans. House Republicans also cut a deal over immigration reform, creating a rift among moderate republicans and the racist base. In 2014, Republicans are divided and demoralized and don't show up to the polls.

    I think (2) is more likely than (1), but I'm not sure how likely either scenario is. I do think that Democrats' chances of taking over the House depend on the republicans fucking up or imploding.

    •  Money (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think the main thing Dems have to do now - since much of this is out of our hands for now - is come up with a strategy to fight back against the Super PACs. With Nancy out as leader (probably), the next elections being midterms most people expect to be rougher on Dems, not to mention this week's disappointment making taking the House back seem like a tough proposition, the House Dems' fundraising is bound to be tougher. Add to that that the only races in which outside money clearly had impact was House races which means that's where wealthy men will send their money since it is best bang for the buck, Democrats HAVE to find a way to counter this.
      It is a tough enough river to row with redistricting and so that we don't need Super PACs to bury us.
      But what would the answer be? I am not sure. Maybe create a specific Super PACs that has the imprimatur of the DCCC?

      •  I'd like to see Pelosi replaced as leader (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, SaoMagnifico

        But what's the evidence that this is a likelihood? Have prominent Congressional Democrats been quoted, either by name or anonymously, as saying that Pelosi is likely out?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:05:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Politico has an article up (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

          saying that she's mum on her future, and we'll know sometime next week. Of course, I'm unsure as to what degree we can trust Politico.

          18, Male, MD-8. Fan of University of Virginia athletics.

          by Danny Ricci on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:21:55 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Pelosi (4+ / 0-)

          I would not be surprised if she steps down. She has consistently put the party's interests above her own, and she is certainly aware that she's unpopular among people who normally favor the GOP and this makes it harder for Dems to win red districts. I would replace her with someone like Chris Van Hollen, who votes the same way 98% of the time but is much harder to use in a negative ad.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:31:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  But what would be the party interest? (0+ / 0-)

            I see not a profit for the party with her steping down now.

            I think the Democratic incumbents in the 113th congress are in R+3 or less districts, except very very few. With Obama winning VA and FL (both R+2), there is a trouble with Pelosi in this type of districts? I think not.

            And there is still a good number of districts under R+3 in Republican hands. Here is where the DCCC must look to find new Red to Blue districts for the next cycle.

            I think the biggest reason for her retirement would be the age, but still it is not too high.

            •  Here's the point (0+ / 0-)

              The Democrats underperformed in the 2012 House elections. Sure, most of that was due to gerrymandering, but since Pelosi's leadership didn't help, why not try someone new?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:40:02 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Lots and lots of districts get uncontested (0+ / 0-)

                The effect of the Redistricting is so high. Boehner is back Pelosi in the popular vote but he has the majority.

                Also this year the majority in the US House has not been a first level goal. The Democratic Party has been more focused keeping the President and the majority in the Senate.

                The final result has been a little better than I was expecting looking at the numbers. I would tell that the Democratic Party wins most of the contested seats in the R+low territory.

                I would continue with Pelosi until 2014 then it would be easier to have a right measure of her effect. In this cycle I expect more Republican incumbents in EVEN to R+4 seats being contested, and then we will see.

                After the result of this cycle I'm more optimistic than I was about to take the majority in the US House. There is a positive detail. It is necessary to win a decent number of districts between EVEN and R+3 but these districts are in the bluest states, escept someone in VA, OH, FL AZ and TX (hispanic districts). Then, the Democratic Party will not be playing this game in as bad environment. The Democratic party will campaign hard in WI, PA, NV, MN, MI, IA, CO, and also in VA, OH or FL. NY and CA will be permanent battleground states for the US House all the decade. In these states Pelosi is not as bad.

                The scenario changed a little since 2010. Surely the R+5+ seats will not be contested, and that let out the game all the states were Pelosi is more unpopular (AR, MO, TN, ND, SD...). Only four districts to defend in this scenario (UT-04, NC-07, GA-12 and WV-03) and no gains in the prospect.

                I see not a benefit from changing Pelosi because I think the Republicans would do the same campaign against the following leader, then I would not burn the new leader before taking the majority. And even I would not tell that Pelosi can not win and become Speaker again.

            •  red districts (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, fearlessfred14

              The Dems cannot get a majority without winning some red districts, and having Pelosi as the head House Dem makes that harder.

              SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 09:23:31 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  But the contested districts will not be as red (0+ / 0-)

                as in 2010. The contested seats will be between EVEN and R+4. That let out the game all the seats in the most Gerrymandered states, that are the states were Pelosi is more unpopular.

                Taking the new Cook Partisan Voting Index for the 113th congressional districts, these are the districts in Republican hands until R+4 (included).

                In the bluest states:

                CA-31, IL-13, PA-08, NY-02, NY-19, NJ-02, WI-07, NV-03, PA-07, MI-06, PA-06, IA-03, CO-06, WA-03, WA-08, NJ-03, MI-08, MN-02, MN-03, WI-08, PA-13, NY-22, NY-23, CA-21, MI-07, WI-01, NY-11, IL-16, NJ-05, MI-01, MI-04, MI-11, IA-01, CO-03

                In other Obama states:

                FL-13, OH-10, OH-14, FL-02, VA-10

                And in Romney states:

                no-one.

                Here is were the majority will be in play, and not in the states where it was in 2010 (MO, AR, TN, ND, SD,...)

                And in these states Pelosi is not as unpopular, and the blue team will campaign hard all the times.

          •  The real question, to me... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Is whether Rep. Van Hollen is willing to challenge Rep. Hoyer in a leadership election.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:25:24 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  (2) (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      marieperoy, jncca, MichaelNY

      I think (2) is only really possible if a lot of incumbents get primaried for compromising. For example, take Jackie Walorski, who barely won. If she votes for the deals, in November she would likely sweep the Romney-Donnelly voters in her district (it looks like she got maybe half of them this year) and pick off a few Obama voters. But would she even make it to the general? I would guess that GOP primary voters in IN2 overwhelmingly voted to dump Lugar for compromising a lot less than that on substantive issues.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 08:09:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Prioritizing is important as well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Identifying the offensive and defensive list early will be critical. The party has to know where to spend money and not to spend it. Some of the losses this year, like PA-12 and NY-27 had money spent on them that could have gone toward other seats that got money too late or didn't get it all.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 08:59:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Of xourse, that always happens (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, jncca, MichaelNY

        I remember this happened even in the very good years of 2006 (remember Larry Kissell that year) and 2008. I think with both parties, there are seats that look good at one point (remember Crtiz was leading in most of the polls that were revealed) but by the end, it's clear the were likely not winnable, and seats that just come into play at the very end (such as Tom Reed's this year) when its too late to do anything about it.

        And you always have a seat like Matheson's. If I had been running the House Dems campaign committee, I would have cut him loose over a month ago. Probably why I don't run things over there...

  •  Mandate (9+ / 0-)

    Dave Weigel points out something funny that I had not thought of:
    It is hard for conservatives to pretend the results were close and there is no mandate for Obama since Obama's margin of victory in the NPV (3 points) and in the EC (300+) hits exactly the predictions the unskewed crowd was making for Romney and calling it an upcoming landslide.

  •  Obama increase his lead in Mississippi (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

     2008:   McCain 56% to Obama's 43%

    CNN EXIT POLL:  62% WHITE
                               33%  BLACK            

     2012  Romney  55% to Obama's 44%

    CNN EXIT POLL:    59% WHITE
                                 36% BLACK

    When do you guys think  Mississippi would become a swing state..     Faster than Texas? or SC?

    •  Nope (5+ / 0-)

      I suspect that there were a LOT of white evangelical Baptist voters that simply didn't vote. Remember, a lot of conservative evangelical churches consider Mormonism a cult.

      •  No they didn't (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

        For the most part they consider Mormons to be evangelical christians like themselves.  The white vote turned out at an expected rate in the deep south and in MS they went 89% for Romney, about the same % McCain won.

        •  White evangelicals are Republican enough (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, MichaelNY

          that they didn't hold Romney's Mormonism against him. But that doesn't mean that they see Mormons as evangelicals.

          Growing up in my corner of evangelicalism, we were definitely taught that Mormons were not Christians (let alone fellow evangelicals). At my Christian middle school, we had a unit on "cults" during Bible class one semester; Mormons were included.

          It's possible that Romney's candidacy may shift perceptions, but the shift would be from "non-Christian" to "Christian" not "non-evangelical" to "evangelical". A Pew poll in June 2012 found 63% of white evangelicals describing Mormonism as "very different" from their own beliefs to 27% saying that they had a "lot in common." The same poll found white evangelicals split 43-42 in favor of calling Mormonism "a Christian religion". (Graph is about two-thirds of the way down the page.)

          31, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

          by borodino21 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 10:32:20 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Very interesting (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

      Obama didnt see too much drop off in GA or SC either.

      I doubt MS or SC will be competitive very soon, but a candidate who could turn out black votes like Obama, and do even a little better among white voters, could make it a closer race in GA.

      I'm not sure who that would be. I think you could make an argument for Hillary Clinton or Martin O'Malley.

      •  It's because Obama was rock bottom in 2008 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        There's isn't much variance for statewide Dems in Mississippi.  He won about 11% of the white vote in that state, almost the same as 2008.  The reason he performed about the same or slightly better in these deep south states is because with every passing Presidential election the minority growth is growing and the white vote is shrinking.

        •  I'm curious about South Carolina, though. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bfen

          There was a trend there towards Obama in all but five counties, even ones that are about 80% white. Overall the state went from McCain +9.0 to Romney +10.7. You might just think this is a function of the extreme inelasticity of the state - a national Obama decline of 4% or so would translate into a lesser decline in a place like South Carolina (which is true - if you look at Dave Leip's trends map, Obama trending states correlate pretty strongly with inelastic states).

          But it's more than that, too, because there was actually a movement in the absolute vote towards Obama in a majority of counties, and only a very small decline in several others, including Spartanburg.

          The thing abouth South Carolina, though, is that it's not really benefitting so much from demographic change as other southern states are. Its white population grew faster than its black population from 2000-2010 - the only state in the lower 48 where that's the case. And the hispanic population is only 5% - a fair bit lower than it is in NC or GA.

          In their wisdom, of course, the exit pollsters decided we needed polls of Vermont and Kansas, rather than demographically dynamic states like SC, GA, and TX. Presumably part of the story is increased black turnout. But also maybe Dems have a floor of about 20% among whites in the state? That's a little higher than I might have thought, but maybe it's plausible?

          At any rate I'm surprised the decline for Obama margin in SC (1.7%) was so much less than it was in Georgia (3.76%), and was even less than it was in NC (2.5%).

    •  MS (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tk421, jncca, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      For MS to become competitive, it would need an influx of yankees and/or minorities. Its population and economy have been very stagnant for a long time. As is, natural demographic drift is causing Dems' position to improve a little every year but with 90% of the white vote going GOP and 90% of the nonwhite vote going Dem it won't be competitive until the population ratio is close to 50-50. It's 58-42 now.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 10:33:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The child population is already majority-minority (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, jncca, MichaelNY

        with whites and blacks at near parity. That being said it will take a LONG time for that to cycle through the electorate so MS won't be a parity state (barring an unlikely swing in the affiliations of white voters) for about another 20 years.

        Interestingly, states like MS and GA do have some of the biggest age gaps in the nation if you believe exit polls, so it will happen eventually, it will just take a very long time.

        26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 10:46:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obama won MS 18-29: 55-43 but lost over 65s by (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          78-22. I would guess that is the single biggest age gap in the country. However, since he lost 30-65 year olds by about 10 points it will still take quite a while for the state to become competitive.

          http://www.cnn.com/...

          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 10:50:29 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The conventional wisdom for the deep south (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            is that a VAP of just over 43% black should make for a 50/50 "district." (See Lublin's Paradox of Representation). Anything over that becomes quite difficult for a Republican to win.

            I think MS, AL, and LA are a bit different, though: the white people there are uniquely about as Republican as the blacks are Democratic.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 10:55:30 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Obama now up about 75,000 in Florida (5+ / 0-)
  •  Some predictions for the next few weeks: (17+ / 0-)

    -Linda McMahon will declare her 2014 Senate bid, only to be informed that there is no Connecticut Senate seat up that cycle.
    -Josh Mandel will give up on adult politics and run for highschool class treasurer.
    -Richard Mourdock will show up in Washington and wonder why he can’t inflict his opinion on anyone.
    -Alan Grayson will declare his win “a victory over the Taliban,” while Allen West will claim terrorists are trying to steal the election from him to destroy America.
    -Karl Rove will be spotted crying in a corner, alone.

  •  Even Resurgent Republic sees the writing... (0+ / 0-)

    ...on the wall.  Of course, later on in the rightup, they go into right wing babblespeak, but the first part is good, at least:

    http://s3.amazonaws.com/...

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 10:24:03 AM PST

  •  NYT on Arizona (6+ / 0-)

    the NYT writes about the disaster that's the Arizona ballot situation. Good to see voting-right groups are on top of the situation: http://www.nytimes.com/... They also write the following:

    Three Congressional races remained too close to call on Friday, and there were also some misgivings about the outcome of several other races. One of them was the United States Senate race... Mr. Carmona conceded on Tuesday; on Friday, in a message to supporters, he wrote, “We will take every necessary step to make sure all of our supporters’ ballots are counted.”
    The math just isn't there at the moment. But if provisionals are as heavily Hispanic as voting-right groups are charging... still worth following.
  •  Looking at turnout (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Some of these California races have some horrid turnout. CA-21 just over 80k.. even if there are more ballots to count this is just awful. How can Democrats increase voter registration/turnout in these inland areas with growing Hispanic populations?

  •  You (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fearlessfred14, tk421, MichaelNY

    know I want to ask one of my conservative friends on Facebook what she thinks of Section 5 of the VRA. But I have a feeling I'm not going to like her answer...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 11:07:04 AM PST

  •  Priebus leaning towards running for another (7+ / 0-)

    term as RNC chair.

    Seems like good news for Dems.

    I wonder if DWS will continue for Dems. She has earned it, but I'd prefer a non elected official in that spot. David Plouffe would be my top choice.  

    •  I'd prefer to see someone not in office as DNC (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

      head. And whoever is head of DNC going into the 2016 primaries gets to set the map and the rules of the Presidential primary. It needs to be someone neutral like Dean was in 2008. DWS was Hillary's most effective surrogate in 2008 and will certainly not be neutral in setting the map for the primaries.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 02:58:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Aha, so that's where he was (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

      I haven't heard of him since Tuesday night, the big whiner.
      Yes Republicans, appoint the guy who did worse than Steele in 2010; at least Steele picked up the House for the Republicans.

      "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

      by Coco Usagi on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 03:01:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Plouffe or Messina. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, bfen, MichaelNY, askew

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:21:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  37 years ago today (7+ / 0-)

    The largest freshwater ship ever sunk met her fate at the hands of one of the largest November gales ever to hit Lake Superior. Here's to the memory of all 29 sailors that lost their lives on the Edmund Fitzgerald on November 10th, 1975.

    http://www.youtube.com/...

  •  MA Succession Law (5+ / 0-)

    Here is something I don't understand.
    MA Dems changed the Senate succession law  to a special election in case a potential Gov Romney would have picked the replacement for Prsdt Kerry - to the disastrous result we know.
    They don't want to move back to Governor-picked replacement because MA does have a History of electing Republican Governors.
    But why not do what other states have done which is limit the ability of the Governor to pick anyone he wants? How about forcing him to pick someone from the same party as the departing Senator as in many other states? Or even better, how about forcing him to pick between a list of three candidates selected by the legislature?
    It'd be messy but much more secure for the Dems than either a special election or a simple Governor pick

    •  All states need to do that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, marieperoy

      Governor/legislature must appoint someone of the same party from a list of 3 or so supplied by that party's central committee, followed by a special election soon thereafter.  I don't like how someone can just be appointed to serve for 2 years or more importantly that the senate seat can sit vacant for months on end.

      Of course, it's sort of similar to independent redistricting in that neither deep red states or deep blue states are going to want to do that for obvious reasons.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 12:57:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Patrick Murphy certified the winner (12+ / 0-)

    http://thehill.com/...

    Still no concession from West. Good for Murphy to have moved from FL-22 to FL-18.

  •  Another replacement for SoS (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, LordMike, MichaelNY, MBishop1

    other than Kerry.  I think Susan Rice should be considered.  Heck, there's a ton of people who should be considered.  Lugar should be given a call (though I don't think he'll bite, but it's worth a try).  As should Hagel.  Who else?

    I do think Obama is not going to put any Senators at risk of a Republican takeover.  That's why he didn't pick Webb last year despite talk that he would.  Speaking of which, Webb would be a good SoD and now that he's on his way out, there's no risk in picking him.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 12:56:25 PM PST

    •  Yeah, I think Kerry's chances of being SOS (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      have dropped over the last few days.

      There was a story on how Reid wants Kerry to stay in the senate, and the WH wants to keep Reid happy.

      Also, WH has another reason for keeping Kerry in the Senate. If he left, Bob Menendez would become chair of the SFRC. And apparently, there is conflict between WH and him on some foreign policy matters, like Cuba.

      Benghazi seems to be the biggest issue for Rice, even though the CIA analysis at the time backs her up. Hagel would be a good choice as well.

      One other person not mentioned much: Nicholas Burns. A career foreign service officer, who served in Clinton and Bush 43 administrations. He retired in 2008 to teach at Harvard. He has praised Obama's approach to Iran, and criticized Romney a few times during the campaign.

      •  Wouldn't Barbara Boxer (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        trade her chair of the Environment committee for the top spot on Foreign relations. I'd think the later committee is more prestigious. She has more seniority than Menendez.

      •  One thing that Obama needs to do with his (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, MichaelNY

        2nd term is starting to build the next generation of Democratic leaders. He should be nominating new faces in his 2nd term not digging up old Clinton retreads.  It's incredibly important for party building and for Obama's legacy to be putting new people in place.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 03:03:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  William Burns has been mentioned (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        He's the current Deputy Secretary of State. He's a career diplomat, though not a widely-known public figure.

        It seems to be a real tossup between Rice and Kerry at the moment - WH would probably prefer Rice, but the Benghazi issue might make confirmation difficult. But Kerry, as you mentioned, creates problems in the Senate if he leaves (possible Scott Brown victory, Menendez as FR chair).

    •  Kerry seat is up in 2014 anyways... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, LordMike

      So whoever wins the special election will have to run again in 2014.  I don't see it as much of an issue for this reason - what if Kerry is pissed at the snub and retires in 2014 - than the seat is equally in play.

      Having 55 seats vs 54 seats now makes no lick of difference.  Either Reid fixes the filibuster and cloture issue or he doesn't.  

      Brown, even if he won the special election, would have to tack further left as he'd be in campaign mode for the next two years.  

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:33:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It can't be viewed as a snub (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LordMike

        There are lots of folks who want the job.  No reason for him to think he is "entitled" to it even if he wants it.

        Appoint him in 2014 after he retires. Clinton is an exception.  Cabinet secretaries don't always serve four years.

        The Senate isn't a place to fall back on while looking for other jobs.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:40:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  There is zero reason to put a GOP person in a (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      prominent cabinet position.  Stick one at the lesser cabinet posts like transportation or agriculture.

      Webb would be an awful SoD as he is incapable of playing well with others and wouldn't follow the Obama admin talking points on anything. He was known for being a gigantic pain in the ass during his time in the military and his views on women in combat are pretty horrifying.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 03:01:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Politico calls for Dr. Raul Ruiz (10+ / 0-)

    he's ahead 52.0%-48.0% and >7000 votes.  I'm impressed.  This is a 50-47 Obama district (by 2008 numbers and Obama narrowly lost Riverside County this year) and in 2010, the Mayor of Palm Springs couldn't even break 45% against her.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 12:58:29 PM PST

  •  MN-Sen: Klobuchar won much bigger than I imagined (7+ / 0-)

    Not only did she beat Bills by a 35% spread, but she lost only two counties (Pipestone and Rock).  Even so, Bills only won by pluralities there, not by majorities.
    More: http://www.politico.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:00:30 PM PST

  •  Pennsylvania Miscellaneous. (8+ / 0-)

    I am kind of surprised that Pennsylvania was nearly the tipping point state in the election. That is, the state that provided Obama with his 270th electoral vote was Colorado. But Pennsylvania was only 0.4% ahead of Colorado in the popular vote. I expect that Pennsylvania may become the tipping point state in 2016, as Colorado bolts left. If Hillary runs, maybe not, because she remains very popular in Pennsylvania.

    That Republicans did extremely well in western Pennsylvania, and still lost handily suggests serious trouble. Obama did poorly with wealthy, moderate suburbanites as well. He lost ground in the very wealthy portions of the Philly suburbs but did great in the not-as-wealthy Harrisburg suburbs.

    But here is something else from the exit polls: the electorate was D+10! That's an improvement from D+8 in 2008. Pennsylvania is much more liberal than many would think, 27% liberal and only 31% conservative in the exit polls. In fact, Obama only won Pennsylvania moderates by 9% - pretty bad performance for a Democrat.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:01:31 PM PST

    •  Oh, yes. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      And there will be a diary or two from me on these topics.

      Bonus topic: the Republican gerrymander of the state senate is in fact, a dummymander. They drew the lines to keep too many of their incumbents in office, when if they had sacrificed one or two they would have the majority for the decade.

      Obviously, the congressional gerrymander held up as expected.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:04:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Kerry won the state by only 2.5 (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike, MichaelNY, askew

      And Obama dropped less in the state from '08 than he did nationally.

      •  I must not be understanding the second point (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Obama won 2008 by 7.3.  In 2008, he'll win by about 3%.  That's a 4.3% drop.

        He won PA bu 10.2% in 2008.  He is won it by 5.2% in 2012.  That's a 5 point drop, at least 10% more than his national drop.

        (It is interesting that PA is now the #2 tipping point state, and I agree with redrelic17 that CO will likely move past it, and IA and NH, on the tipping point scale in the future.)

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:21:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  One other thing I saw in PA (4+ / 0-)

      was that Obama marginally improved over his 2008 performance in Delaware County.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:28:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Philly results are very interesting (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, redrelic17

      The results in the black wards basically completely matched those of 2008 in terms of both turnout and margin.

      Obama overperformed pretty substantially in the traditionally Republican wards in the far Northeast and in part of South Philly -- even winning the only ward he lost last time around -- the 26th. This is probably primarily due to demographic change as these wards tend to have rapidly growing Asian and Hispanic populations along with declining white populations.

      Obama substantially underperformed in the liberal white wards. Compare the results in the following liberal white areas.

      8th ward (Western half of Center City)
      2008: 14.5k-2.8k - 83%-16%
      2012: 12.9k-3.4k - 78%-21%

      5th ward (Eastern Half of Center City)
      2008: 14.5k-2.7k - 83-15%
      2012: 13.3k-3k, 80%-18%

      9th ward (Chestnut Hill)
      2008: 7.8k-1.2k - 86%-13%
      2012: 7.5k-1.3k - 85%-14%

      21st ward (Manayunk, Roxborough)
      2008: 15k-7.2k - 67%-32%
      2012: 13.8k-6.2k - 68%-31%

      24th ward (Powelton Village)
      2008: 7k-0.6k - 91%-8%
      2012: 6.2k-0.5k - 90%-9%

      27th ward (University City)
      2008: 9.7k-1.3k - 87%-12%
      2012: 7.4k-1.2k - 85%-14%

      Ultimately, however, it seems like all of this cancelled out as Obama's margin slightly improved even as turnout dropped slightly citywide.  

      2008: 571k-113k
      2012: 560k-92k

      http://www.seventy.org/...

      http://phillyelectionresults.com/

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:34:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MN-Voter ID: The campaign against it should be (9+ / 0-)

    mimicked anywhere voter ID is considered.  The anti-voter ID groups turned supermajority support into a majority opposition by showing that military servicemembers would be unable to vote with their ID's and such.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:09:37 PM PST

    •  Yeah (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, LordMike

      Such a tactic I think would actually lead to a vote against even in Texas (big military state).

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:35:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Btw does anyone have a copy of the ad (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, LordMike

      from GOVs Dayton and Carlson against it?

      I thought for a bit that it might have lost due to undervotes and the 50% requirement, bit no, more people actually voted against the amendment than for it, which makes me happy.

    •  It wasn't just the service members. It was the (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      cost of the bill. They ran a great campaign talking about how expensive implementing this bill would be for the state. My non-political family and friends voted against the amendment for that reason alone. They didn't so much care about the voter disenfranchisement argument.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 03:08:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Politico calls Florida for Obama! (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, LordMike, MichaelNY, askew, sapelcovits

    With a lead of 50.0-49.1.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:12:35 PM PST

  •  Here are some open thread questions for you (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    Could Tim Holden have won PA-11 had he run there instead of the 17th?  I think there's a good chance he could have despite it not having any Schuylkill County, but our 3rd tier nominee there still got 41.5% and I think with Holden's incumbency in the Harrisburg area, his moderate record, and his abillity to fundraise being much stronger than Stilp he might have pulled it off.

    Also, would Leonard Bembry have done better enough if FL-02 to have won?

    How about Jason Altmire in PA-12?  I think that one's a pretty definite yes since his incumbency alone was worth a lot more than Critz's for that seat.

    How much better would Patrick Murphy have done in PA-08 over Kathy Boockvar?  Initially I thought he might have been able to win it, but now I think he might have only gotten a few % higher.

    Would Heath Shuler have held on in NC-11?  Hayden rogers got 42.5% and I think Shuler probably would have eked out a narrow win like McIntyre did.

    Our some dude nominee got 41.3% in FL-07. Given how well we did in general in the contested Florida races, how high do you think we could have gotten in that district with a well funded nominee like Val Demmings.  47 or 48%?

    And finally, how much better would Earl Pomeroy and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin done in North and South Dakota had they run for their old seats?  I think Herseth Sandlin would have easily gotten at least 48% if not won outright.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:18:48 PM PST

  •  Does anyone know if the exit polls were broken dow (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Does anyone know if the exit polls were broken down by region?

    I am really interested to see how many whites voted for Obama outside the south vs the south (ie was there a huge divide or not)

    •  Can't happen (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen

      They didn't do complete exit polls in a bunch of states.  We will never be able to have that data for 2012.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:55:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, there was (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I don't need exit polls to tell you that.

    •  Well let's see... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Obama share of the white vote for the states that had exit polls this year, for 2008 and 2012:

      South:

      Alabama 10, 15
      Florida 42, 37
      Mississippi 11, 10
      North Carolina 35, 31
      Virginia 39, 37

      Average shift: -1.4

      West:

      Arizona 40, 32
      California 52, 45
      Colorado 50, 44
      Montana 45, 38
      Nevada 45, 43
      New Mexico 42, 41
      Oregon 57, 54
      Washington 55, 53

      Average shift: -4.5

      Northeast:

      Connecticut 51, 51
      Maine 58, 57
      Maryland 47, 43
      Massachusetts 59, 57
      New Hampshire 54, 51
      New Jersey 49, 43
      New York 52, 49
      Pennsylvania 48, 42
      Vermont 68, 66

      Average shift: -3.0

      Midwest:

      Illinois 51, 46
      Indiana 45, 38
      Iowa 51, 51
      Kansas 40, 33
      Michigan 51, 44
      Minnesota 53, 48
      Missouri 42, 32
      Ohio 46, 41
      Wisconsin 54, 48

      Average shift: -5.8

      So. There's that.

  •  2008 and 2012 was the first time (9+ / 0-)

    a Democrat has won Florida in back to back presidential elections since 1944 and 1948.

  •  Why is Allegheny Co, VA always close but no cigar? (5+ / 0-)

    Obama lost this mountain county both times by just a few hundred votes.  Every other mountain county in Virginia, (besides Montgomery county which he won the first time, lost narrowly this time), went to the Republicans by double digits, sometimes as much as 40% more.

    The one independent city in the county always goes Democrat, I'm guessing because of the paper plant there.  Anyone know why we always get so close there, but nowhere else around that area?

  •  I calculated new PVIs (subject to change) (5+ / 0-)

    These aren't Cook PVIs, but ones based only on 2012.

    Utah is an astonishing R+25.25 (I rounded to the nearest 1/4 of a point).
    Wyoming comes in second, at R+22, followed by Oklahoma at R+18.

    On our side, Hawaii leads at D+20.  Then Vermont at D+16.5, and Rhode Island at D+12.25.

    The swingiest states are Virginia at D+0.25 (first time D-leaning since 1948!), Florida at R+1, Ohio at R+0.5, and Colorado at D+1.  

    Interestingly, Alaska is only R+8, the same as Montana.

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 02:05:54 PM PST

  •  Map Query (0+ / 0-)

    Does anyone know of a good results map for the major races (especially House races) that allows you to zoom in to metro areas? Having to squint for LA and Miami isn't much fun.

    Sure, I can look at plain text results, but I'm visual!

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 02:38:40 PM PST

  •  LOL at the red-skewed pollsters, all of them (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, MBishop1

    Fordham study of all 2012 pollsters
    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    RCP electoral map created from the lousy pollsters
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

    Clicking through the RCP "tossup" states is a laugh a minute.  (Michigan final result, 9.5.  RCP average, 4.0.  Only final poll to really get a sense of the race, WeAskAmerica at the end of September were +12.  PPP and EPIC-MRA were next at +6)

    Fordham lists PPP as the most accurate pollster (they don't include WeAsk), but click through the RCP pages and you'll find even PPP had a decided Republican lean.  Sometimes they were more Dem than the final result by a point or two, but more often they were too Republican, sometimes by several points.

    Polling was craptacularly bad.
    Zero pollsters were Democratic leaning overall.

    Finally, to put it mildly, the RCP consensus was terrible.  Assuming the consensus of polling this year was going to be accurate was a huge mistake.  The Republican lean was consistently large.  (This also lead to Nate Silver being waaaaay too optimistic of Romney's chances in terms of percentage chance of winning.)

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 02:42:37 PM PST

    •  Oops, ignore that Fordham list (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I see they also don't include Marist or Q, apparently because they are talking only about national polls which are pointless in the first place, and the extent of the national margin isn't even freaking known yet.

      Totally silly.

      As for the RCP average and everybody having a Republican lean including PPP, that's easy to see when clicking through the RCP pages.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 02:53:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Why do they have Pew so low? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      They nailed the final spread basically

  •  Fun thought. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, jncca, MichaelNY

    I really would love to see President Obama try and name Susan Collins to something. If she is iffy about whether or not to run again then maybe she would take it. LePage could appoint a strong Republican and we would have a great pickup opportunity.

    Support Shelli Yoder for Congress! http://www.shelliyoderforcongress.com/home/

    by drhoosierdem on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 02:46:27 PM PST

  •  Fascinatingly (12+ / 0-)

    if you look at Oregon's presidential vote, Obama won by 193,000 votes statewide.  In Multnomah County, the most Dem county in the state, home of Portland, he won by 186,000.  Take it out of the state totals, and Obama still wins Oregon by 6-7,000 votes, about the number Al Gore won the state by in 2000 with Multnomah County.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 03:14:30 PM PST

  •  just did all the math myself and (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1, bfen, itskevin

    Obama's 2.2% Electoral College advantage (he could've lost nationally by 2.2% and won the Electoral College) is tied with 1968 (when Republicans had the advantage) for the biggest advantage since 1948.  In 1948 and years prior, Republicans had a big advantage (4.6% in 1948 itself, around 3% during FDR's Presidency) because of how Democratic the South was.

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 04:26:58 PM PST

  •  Alan Grayson Says What? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skipos, MichaelNY

    "It shouldn't always be D versus R," Grayson said. "It doesn't have to be that way. I think we ought to find common-sense things that we ought to pass and shouldn't be ideological."

    Grayson is totally the same as Allen West.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 09:25:37 AM PST

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