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1:00 PM PT: IA-Sen: Just days after his nine-point victory over Christie Vilsack, GOP Rep. Steve King is refusing to rule out a run against Dem Sen. Tom Harkin in 2014. Over his long career, Harkin has always seemed like an attractive target for Republicans. But after first unseating Sen. Roger Jepsen in 1984, Harkin then dispatched three congressmen in a row: Tom Tauke (1990), Jim Lightfoot (1996), and Greg Ganske (2002). That left Republicans with Some Dude Christopher Reed in 2008, who helped Harkin achieve his highest-ever vote total (63 percent).

That's not say Harkin won't be vulnerable in 2014. To the contrary: I expect the GOP to try hard for this seat. But King would probably be our best opponent: He's a stone-cold lunatic, and the rest of Iowa is much more moderate than his district. What's more, he can almost certainly out-crazy anyone else who might dare enter the primary field. On the flipside, he can probably raise a lot of money, but I think Harkin would have a field day with King and would probably prefer him to some anodyne establishment type. (And before anyone can say "be careful what you wish for," I'll just point out that for the last two cycles, Republicans have done us huge favors by nominating their most insane standard-bearers. MourdockAkinAngleO'Donnell anyone?)

1:39 PM PT: HI-02: It's almost too bad Virgil Goode isn't around anymore, since I'm sure we'd all enjoy another one of his meltdowns: Democrat Tulsi Gabbard, just elected to the open seat in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District, will become the first Hindu member of the House and will apparently take her oath of office on the Bhagavad Gita. (I know I'll never forget Goode flipping out when Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison was sworn in over a Koran owned by Thomas Jefferson back in 2007.)

1:50 PM PT: TX-?? George P. Bush, son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and nephew of Dubya, has filed paperwork for a campaign committee in Texas. It's not known what office he might seek, but AG or Land Commissioner are rumored possibilities. (The attorney general's job will be open in 2014 if Greg Abbott makes a run for governor.) One thing I'd forgotten (that the New Republic's Eliza Gray reminds me of) is that George P., who speaks Spanish and whose mother is Mexican, was once dubbed the GOP's Ricky Martin. Probably not something he'd like to be reminded of. Also: Don't confuse George P. with Jeb's other son, Jeb Bush, Jr. (aka JBJ), who has already been talked about as a possible 2014 challenger to Rep.-elect Joe Garcia in FL-26.

2:05 PM PT: AZ-02: When it comes to number-crunching, there are few people I trust more than Bloomberg's Greg Giroux, so I'm going to go with him on this update:

I have Barber up 586 in #az02 (123,650 to 123,064) after Pima update http://t.co/... CD also has all of Cochise

@greggiroux via HootSuite

2:18 PM PT: CA-15: Another very interesting tidbit from Greg Giroux: Rep. Pete Stark, who was just defeated by fellow Democrat Eric Swalwell, was the third longest-serving member of the House to be unseated by a member of his own party. The longest was New York City Democrat Manny Celler, who lost to Liz Holtzman in 1972 after an amazing twenty-five terms in office. Second was Massachusetts Republican Joseph W. Martin, who served 21 terms before being defeated by Margaret Heckler in 1966. Stark winds up just behind Martin with 20 terms, though the other two men both lost in primaries while Stark lost in a general election, thanks to California's new top-two primary system.

3:07 PM PT: IL-13: Democrat David Gill, whose race was called by the AP on election night, is now conceding to Republican Rodney Davis. Via email:

My exhausted campaign team has just completed a county by county analysis of outstanding provisional and absentee ballots in the 13th Congressional District, as well as some precinct based anomalies in ballot returns and turnout.

The closeness of this race (less than 1/2 percentage point) demanded that we diligently check the numbers. I am very grateful for the dedicated work of my campaign staff to go through this data in the last few days, and for the cooperation of election officials in each of the 14 counties.

It has become clear to me, based on the numbers I've seen, that there are simply not enough uncounted ballots remaining to wipe out the current 1,287 vote deficit I face in this election.

3:28 PM PT: CA-07: We just got update fresh out of the Sacramento County Registrar's bakery on Friday afternoon, and boy is it tasty: Democrat Ami Bera leads incumbent GOPer Dan Lungren by 1,779 votes, up from 184 votes on Election Night. We estimated then that there were still 80,000 votes outstanding in the district; the Sacto RoV hasn't given us an update, but even assuming again that there are still 80,000 ballots outstanding, Lungren's magic number has now climbed to 51.1%, 1.5% higher than the 49.6% he's pulled so far. The number of remaining ballots is likely lower, though, which means Lungren's magic number is higher—and that, of course, is good news for Bera.

4:40 PM PT: Ah: Sacramento County now reports approximately 130,000 ballots left to process, half of which should fall in CA-07. This means Lungren's magic number is approximately 51.4%.

4:53 PM PT: VRA: As expected, the Supreme Court agreed to hear a case, Shelby County v. Holder, which could overturn Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act. (Section 5 requires certain jurisdictions with a history of discrimination to seek "preclearance" of changes to voting procedures with the Department of Justice, to ensure they do not harm minorities.) Rick Hasen has more, and it sounds like he thinks the prognosis is grim for Section 5.

5:01 PM PT: CA-52: With the latest update from San Diego County, Dem Scott Peters now leads by 1,334 votes, almost doubling his 685-vote margin over incumbent Brian Bilbray from Thursday. The SD Registrar of Voters estimates 325,000 ballots left to be counted county-wide, which likely means 75-80K in CA-52 alone. Assuming 80,000 votes, Bilbray's magic number is 50.8%, 1.1% higher than his current 49.7% haul.

7:05 PM PT: CA-36: Fantastic news! GOP Rep. Mary Bono Mack has conceded to Democrat Raul Ruiz. The most recent updated vote count (as of Friday evening) put Ruiz ahead by a dominant 7,000 votes, which MBM had no hope of making up. Congratulations to Congressman-elect Raul Ruiz—an amazing win!

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Comment Preferences

  •  Supreme Court agrees to hear new challenge to (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY, askew

    the Voting Rights Act's preclearance requirement.

    From Shelby County, Alalbama.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

  •  SC Senate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kleinburger, MichaelNY

    Think Lindsey will get a pass? I highly doubt it.

  •  Election Post-mortem: Super PACS (4+ / 0-)

    I think the biggest loser of this election may have been super pacs, they didn't seem to have an effect really at the presidential level and at the senate level.  The house, on the other hand, may be a different story.

    I think that the Democratic party needs to shift it's focus on super PACS from Statewide and national elections to local ones, as these are the races where low name rec hurts us.  

    Hopefully our side figures this out before the other side does.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

    by Daman09 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:29:50 PM PST

  •  Rick Scott: Dickbag (9+ / 0-)

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    What an asshole, we need to get a top tier recruit in Florida come 2014.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

    by Daman09 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:33:43 PM PST

  •  Can the media just hurry up (6+ / 0-)

    and Call Florida already?

    I mean, COME ON, Obama's now up .7% and the Romney Campaign's conceded.

  •  Analyzing data from Warren/Brown (11+ / 0-)

    Biggest conclusion so far:  Warren's messaging worked.  Lower income voters switched from Brown to her in much higher rates than upper incomes one.  The correlation coefficient between the per capita income of a town and the change in Brown's two-party vote share was 0.82, if you exclude the Berkshires and the Cape and Islands, where this trend did not apply.

    30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

    Truman: "The buck stops here!"
    Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

    by Marcus Graly on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:46:18 PM PST

    •  What's the correlation coefficient (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      between the per capita income of the town and, say, Obama's vote share?

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:48:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Fairly low, I'd guess (4+ / 0-)

        We have a lot of wealthy liberals in MA.

        The point I'm making is that Warren did proportionally better in lower income place than Coakley did.

        30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

        Truman: "The buck stops here!"
        Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

        by Marcus Graly on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:59:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I wouldn't assume that, first of all. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          (The first part.)  Why not check?  If low-income areas do tend to be more Democratic, at the town level, then this might just be picking up on how Warren got Democrats to switch back to her, and of course she did.  But it's an interesting approach.

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:18:34 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Correlation Coefficient of 0.18 (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Inoljt, itskevin

            Between Romney's share of the two-part vote and per capita income.

            Interestingly it's somewhat higher if you use median household income instead, which I'm not quite sure how to interpret.

            30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

            Truman: "The buck stops here!"
            Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

            by Marcus Graly on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:31:08 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Just an example (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            From two of the most famous liberal wealthy suburbs in the country. Brookline and Newton had almost identical D/R percent performances in 2010 and 2012 (74/25 and 67/32, respectively). Turnout was naturally up by a third or so, but it was proportionate.

            28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

            by bumiputera on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:37:46 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Here's a chart (8+ / 0-)

      (Flickr converts it to jpg, annoying.  Suggestions for dailykos allowed image host that doesn't do this?)

      30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

      Truman: "The buck stops here!"
      Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

      by Marcus Graly on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:12:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Which towns are those? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      List a few so I get the idea please.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:22:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Some interesting towns (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, aamail6, MichaelNY

        The largest swings were in Holyoke, Southbridge, Lawrence and Revere. All greater than 13 point swing with incomes of 19k, 22k, 17k, 22k, respectively.  This shows that race was not a big factor as much as income, since both hispanic and non hispanic cities had the same pattern.  

        Cities that were slightly wealthier, but still had swings larger than 10 include Clinton, Weymouth and Tolland.

        In the middle of the chart, around -3.
        Low income (25k): Petersham, probably because it's close to Franklin County, which was excluded.
        High Income (61k): Machester-by-the-sea

        Near zero swing.
        Low Income (44k): Cambridge, presumably because it was so liberal already, it was hard to get above 85%, though precinct by precinct analysis could tell a different story.
        High Income (77k): Dover

        Brown Gains:
        Highest Income (89k): Weston
        Highest Gain (only 47k, but +3 Brown): Boxborough

        Notes on excluded regions:
        In the Cape and Islands, the only pattern was that the more conservative towns had larger swings to Warren, income was irrelevant.
        In the Berkshires and upper Connecticut Valley (Franklin and Hampshire counties) the trend was opposite, where the lower income places actually swung less to Warren or even had some Brown gains.  I attribute this to Coakley's strength in the region, being a native of North Adams.

        30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

        Truman: "The buck stops here!"
        Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

        by Marcus Graly on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:58:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  could it be due to turnout? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Low-income Dems may not have turned out for a special election as much as High-income Dems did.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:27:47 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  That does make some sense (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, MichaelNY, Marcus Graly

          I really don't think the whole "blue collar areas don't elect women" meme is that accurate anymore, so long as the woman in question has a populist profile. Heitkamp is of course the best example of this, but Warren certainly qualifies as well. Baldwin might count, but it's hard to tell because there was so little ticket splitting in WI-Sen.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

          by fearlessfred14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:34:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Good analysis (eom) (0+ / 0-)

          28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

          by bumiputera on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:13:34 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  House 2014 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    OK, possibly somebody mentioned it already. But what are the remaining offensive possibilities for Democrats in the House?

    Also, what districts are expected to become competitive/Dem leaning in the next years due to demographic changes?

    •  2014 Targets (12+ / 0-)

      Candidate recruitment may be difficult for a mid-term election, but here's an early list of potential targets (even some of these are long shots, though):

      CA-10 (Denham)
      CA-21 (Valadao)
      CA-31 (Miller)
      CO-06 (Coffman)
      FL-02 (Southerland)
      FL-10 (Webster)
      FL-13 (Young) (if he retires)
      IL-13 (R. Davis)
      MI-01 (Benishek)
      MI-11 (Bentivolio) (but the Rs will probably primary him first)
      NE-02 (Terry)
      NV-03 (Heck)
      NY-11 (Grimm)
      NY-19 (Gibson)
      NY-23 (Reed)
      OH-14 (Joyce)
      PA-08 (Fitzpatrick)

      Probably several more California seats and a few in Florida will move our way over the course of the decade due to demographics.

      •  Add TX-27 (8+ / 0-)

        With a good recruit that district could be competitive against Farenthold. He only got 56% against a hapless opponent with a horrible campaign staff. And get this: Farenthold's sister's house was raided by the Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms Bureau because she was funneling AK47s, heroine, and cocaine. And guess what? His opponent (Rose Mesa Harrison) didn't use it.

        Also, the district lines are going to change for the 2014 cycle in Texas. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kingsville put in with Corpus Christi, which would provide a boost for a Democrat. Add to that the fact that Austin Republicans really can't stand Farenthold.

        The district is already in its current form about 40% Hispanic.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:19:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  good start (8+ / 0-)

        I wouldn't expect much in NY19 or PA8, though. Dems had well-funded, serious candidates and still didn't come that close. NY11 might only be vulnerable if more stuff comes out on Grimm.

        I would add MI7, where Dems ran an unfunded nutball and still only lost by 10. Also NC9, which is going blue fairly quickly due to spillover from Watt's district. The Dem had no money (but was a serious candidate) and lost by just 6.

        I think Dems should also play in IN2 (lost by 1, but with Donnelly running for Senate). A coal Dem might be able to retake KY6 without drag from the presidential race, and I'd like to see Altmire get a shot in PA12. That district is mostly suburbs that Altmire won even in the 2010 red wave, and I don't think it's as hopeless as some of the red-trending rural districts.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:25:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Also, we shouldn't give up on seriously contesting (8+ / 0-)

        Either WI-8 or WI-7. They're going to be harder nuts to crack than I had hoped, but they fall pretty easily in a wave with a decent candidate.

        •  Target (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, aamail6

          Buck McKeon

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:29:17 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Target it when he retires (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Decent candidates till then, but we aren't beating him.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:34:41 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I say we have a great chance (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JGibson, MichaelNY

              at beating him with a real, targeted campaign, based on his sub-10 point margin this year. The district is rapidly trending out from under him, and as a sometime DKE user posted about, McKeon has gotten involved in some ethical issues as well as some fights and spats with the local GOP that have left loads of people really soured with him .

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:44:07 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Also WI-01 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, redrelic17

          For all we dismissed Rob Zerban here, Paul Ryan did the worst of any incumbent in Wisconsin's 5 potentially competitive districts. He only did 2 points better than his district's PVI, compared to 4 for Ribble, 6 for Duffy, 7 for Petri, and 8 for Kind. His vote share was also the lowest of any winning House candidate in the state.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

          by fearlessfred14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:38:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I dismissed Zerban (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            not because he couldn't come close, but because he couldn't get to 50%.  Ryan's floor was literally every Romney voter in that district.  That's a very high floor.  His ceiling was lower this cycle because of his being on the ticket, but it was never going to be low enough.

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:57:11 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  That district is both redder and less elasctic (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, fearlessfred14

            but still potentially winnable.

      •  NY-02 no doubt... (6+ / 0-)

        Our candidate, Viviane Falcone, lost this year but still managed to clear 40 percent despite having virtually no money at all.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:39:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Don't leave any seat uncontested (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp

        You never know where a surprise pickup opportunity may lie.

        Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:54:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  South Carolina surprises? (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, redrelic17, bjssp

        Looking at the numbers, I was pleasantly taken aback by how some Dems performed in House races. Do you think Dems can contest these districts in 2014?

        SC-05: Joyce Knott (who?) pulled in almost 45% against Mick Mulvaney.
        SC-07: Gloria Tinubu cleared 45% against Tom Rice.

        With other candidates, especially in SC-07, are these seats winnable for Dems in 2014? Is there a bench of credible Dems in these areas?

        28 • Gay Male • CA-35 (new) • Pragmatic • Progressive • Liberal • Democrat

        by BluntDiplomat on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 03:13:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Kansas Seats In Play (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, bjssp

        Although the Kansas Democratic Party has nearly self-destructed, the Republicans just purged nearly all of their remaining moderates in the 2012 primaries and this could push more moderate voters into our camp, hopefully sooner rather than later. Kansas seats are a bit tougher than some swing seats, but both KS-02 and KS-03 should make the list.

        KS-02 is about 3 points bluer than the one Nancy Boyda won in 2006 and lost narrowly in 2008--thanks to the inclusion of the entirety of Douglas County, home to liberal college town Lawrence--and is trending blue. Incumbent Lynn Jenkins has done herself few favors by compiling a conservative voting record and some dumb (though not yet egregiously stupid) public comments.

        KS-03, held by Democrat Dennis Moore from 1998-2010, was made a few points redder post-redistricting, though it's still the bluest in the state. Suburban Johnson County, which comprises the bulk of the district, is trending blue. Rep. Kevin Yoder, who won the seat in 2010, is famous for skinny-dipping in the Sea of Galilee, which might've hurt him in 2012---had KS Dems bothered to field a candidate. Sigh.

        Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

        by arealmc on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:10:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  KS-State Senate elections (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, aamail6

          I was amazed when ex-Rep. Tom Hawk (D) won.  Manhattan must have turned out big for him rather than support the guy who knocked off the incumbent in the primary.  Also, Steve Lukert was sooooo close to winning SD-1 that it almost hurts.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:14:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I was talking with someone (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          About how maybe we should try and recruit moderate Republican state senators that lost their primaries to run as Democrats.

          Tim Owens (Overland Park) could run in the 3rd. Jean Schodorf could actually be the easiest to convince, since she has already left the Republican party. She's from Wichita and could be a sensible alternative to Mike Pomeo in the 4th.

          And then we could recruit a Dem Senator from Topeka to run in the 2nd.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 01:46:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Independent redistricting in Michigan (6+ / 0-)

      give it a shot and hope we don't get burned like in Ohio?

      I think that's the only other state where it would really help us that allows signature-referred ballot initiatives, but I'm not really sure about Pennsylvania.

      •  We'd need to work out the messaging early (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, MichaelNY

        so that it doesn't collapse in a mess of FUD like the Ohio initiative did. Also, we'd need a lot of money for a strong educational effort, given that it's worth 4 House seats or more, depending on the specifics of the initiative (an initiative essentially identical to Voters First would be ideal, but we might have to compromise on the competition mandate).

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

        by fearlessfred14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:48:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  IN-9 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, SouthernINDem

    Not to spam, but with all of Monroe County now in the race was 56-44. Not that bad for a Safe R race, outperformed Crooks by a solid 2% margin.  

    Support Shelli Yoder for Congress! http://www.shelliyoderforcongress.com/home/

    by drhoosierdem on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:00:34 PM PST

  •  So it's three days after the election (6+ / 0-)

    and the republicans are already crazying themselves out of another senate seat? That's cool.

    Who would be the republicans' strongest options in IA?

    •  Harkin caught a break (4+ / 0-)

      when Tom Latham won over Boswell. If he had lost, I think Latham would've been a pretty sure bet to run against Harkin. But now that he won and did so by a fairly big margin, I think he'll be content to stay.

      Latham is their best candidate. He's nearly as conservative as King but his temperament and tone are much more moderate.

      •  R's bench in Iowa (4+ / 0-)

        I agree the R's don't have a deep bench for statewide candidates in Iowa.  Latham would be a first-tier candidate, but he won't run against Harkin and probably wouldn't run in an open seat (though the NRSC would try awfully hard to change his mind).  Steve King wouldn't crack 45% statewide (against anyone).  Same with Bob VanderPlaats.

        They do have a few statewide officeholders (LtGov, SoS, Auditor, Sec of Agriculture).  Of these, I think the Agriculture Sec'y, Bill Northey, has a decent profile and some positive name recognition.  No idea if he's thinking of the Senate.

        Beyond those names, they'd have to look for some unknown rich candidate who could self-fund.  The only name that comes to mind is Dave Oman who lost a gubernatorial primary many cycles back.  A dream Republican candidate would be former U of Iowa wrestling coach Dan Gable who almost flirted with a congressional run in '08 (I think).  

  •  California (7+ / 0-)

    I'm still in utter awe on how well the dems did here.

    We really ran the table in the legislature. If anything I think the top 2 hurt the R's terribly in the general election. I think many Republicans took their races for granted after the primaries. Many had cleared the 50% mark (with the combined GOP vote) easily and thought that they had little to worry about during the general election.

    Just look at how much the Dems boosted their numbers from the Primaries to general in some of assembly races:

    AD 65 Primary
    Chris Norby (R)             29,917    58.8%
    Sharon Quirk-Silva (D)    20,936    41.2%

    AD 65 General
    Sharon Quirk-Silva (D)    54,925    50.6%
    Chris Norby (R)                    53,688    49.4%

    The Dem got a 9 point boost and knocked out an incumbent R in an upset!
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/...

    AD 32 Primary
    Rudy Salas (D)          13,053    41.4%   
    Pedro A. Rios (R)    7,550    23.9%   
    Jon McQuiston (R)    6,530    20.7%   
    David Thomas (R)    4,420    14.0%

    AD 32 General
    Rudy Salas (D)      29,559    50.2%   
    Pedro A. Rios (R)    29,291    49.8%   

    The Dem gets another 9 point boost
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/...

    And in a race that was on no one's radar

    AD 36 Primary
    Ron Smith (R)    15,097    35.1%   
    Steve Fox (D)    14,160    32.9%   
    Tom Lackey (R)    13,795    32.0%

    The GOP had a combined vote of 64.9% of the vote, so most of us would call it safe GOP but then look what happened in the general!

    AD 36 General
    Ron Smith (R)    50,042    51.0%   
    Steve Fox (D)    48,090    49.0%   

    The Dem surged to a whopping 17 points! Had we put a little more effort in the race we could have picked up an additional seat!
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/...
       

    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

    by lordpet8 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:24:13 PM PST

    •  Feels weird seeing competitve CA races (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, KingofSpades, ArkDem14, itskevin

      I think McNerney winning the 11th was the only CD to change parties the entire decade.  Seems like the Dems won all the close races there this year.  And we still have Miller's seat to pickup next election.

      •  yeah not since 1992 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        did we have such a competitive map.
        Its nice feeling like we can still make a difference down ticket again. My region flipped from Red to blue thanks to the new maps!

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:54:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  California, the blue behemoth (4+ / 0-)

      I too was so happy at how well Dems did. I'm particularly impressed with how well Al Muratsuchi did against Craig Huey. As for the Senate, Fran Pavley had me worried a bit. Any developments on Cathleen Galgiani's race?

      28 • Gay Male • CA-35 (new) • Pragmatic • Progressive • Liberal • Democrat

      by BluntDiplomat on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:39:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  tell me about it (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        Anthony Pugno (Prop 8 dude) went on to lose an assembly race again!

        We looking set to pick up 4 house seats

        Super-majorities in both chambers! The last time Dems had a super trifecta was all the way back in 1883 or so!

        It's not looking so hot for Galgiani, she's down a considerable margin and don't think the remaining ballots will be enough to push her into the lead. Still at this point it would just be icing on the cake. This race was like the only bright spot for the R's as I think it was the only tossup/swing/target race that R's are looking to win.

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:49:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  There are good trends for Dems in the High Desert (7+ / 0-)

      In CA-25, Buck McKeon had his lowest total ever, in part because of Palmdale trending so Democratic. By the end of the decade, we could be winning seats that include the high desert.

      As for AD-65, Republicans completely took it for granted after the primary, thinking that Norby "owns Fullerton", which was obviously wrong. Meanwhile, Democrats took a registration lead in the district and Quirk Silva was running a legitimate campaign.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:45:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  CA (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      They aren't close to done counting yet. Dems usually get most of the late vote, so expect those primary-general gap to get even bigger.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:54:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  A semi-wet blanket (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Check out the CA state result map
      http://vote.sos.ca.gov/...

      Compare counties to 2008
      http://scoreboard.dailykos.com/

      There are still a lot of votes out.  In itself watching how these late count votes impact the final tally can be interesting.

      As of now though, counties Obama is losing in 2012 that he won in 2008:
      Butte and Nevada, the only (2008) blue ones in the northeast
      Stanislaus and Fresno in the central valley
      Riverside in SoCal

      The Valley and Socal ones represent a 3-4 point switch toward the GOP, the NorCal ones were a 7-10 point swing to the GOP.  Ouch.

      Maybe the rest of the votes will sway everything 2-3 points more Dem, but it is a bit disapointing that at least at this point Fresno and Riverside are showing for Romney.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:12:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oops missed Trinity in Norcal too (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Not as big a move to the GOP as Nevada and Butte, but still about a 5 percent shift.  Tiny county though.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:17:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  well that's what amazes me! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tommypaine, MichaelNY

        Despite Obama doing worse in the state we made impressive gains in congress and the legislature, all because of the new maps.

        Gosh I can imagine how well we could have done in 2008 if we had been using the new maps.

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:26:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Fresno Democratic votes (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, lordpet8, askew

        come in really late. And Romney is even now only hanging on by the skin of teeth. Stanislaus could also flip back, as could Riverside. The fact that Obama is matching his vote total here in most places, while the country at large saw a 2 point decrease in his vote total, is quite impressive.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:34:15 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Demographic changes in the House (9+ / 0-)

    by my count, I have women increasing by 5 seats in the House, from 72 to a record 77 members between the 2010 and 2012 elections.

    However, that gain was lopsided between the parties.  Democratic congresswomen increased from 49 to 58, while Republican congresswomen actually decreased from 23 to 19.  Three fourths of the women in the House are now Democrats.  29% of the Dem caucus are women, while only 8% of the GOP caucus are.

    Racially, Congress held even at 42 African-Americans, although the internal composition went from a 40-2 Dem edge to 41-1 representation.

    Hispanics increased from 24 to 27 members total, including representatives of Mexican, Puerto Rican, and Cuban ancestry.  There was also a change in the party standings with this group, as it went from an 18-6 Dem edge to 23-4 following this election.

    There are also now 8 representatives of Asian ancestry, up from 5 before.  All are Democrats.  And there are now 6 GLBT representatives, up from 4 before.  All Democrats.

    Overall, straight white men make up a minority of the Democratic caucus, at just 91 out of 201 congressmen (about 45%).  For Republicans, that number is 212 out of 234 congressmen, just over 90%.

    •  Race/Ethnic (5+ / 0-)

      The change in AAs was Horsford replacing West.

      Although I think you may have this wrong, because Veasay in Fort Worth is African American and is an addition. So it may be that there are 43 AAs with a 42-1 edge.

      The change in Hispanics was the addition of a few new members (Vela, Ruiz, and who else?) and the replacement of two Republican Hispanics with Democratic Hispanics (Gallego v. Canseco and Garcia v. Rivera).

      I can't help but assume that the "who else" was Veasay.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:50:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, Skaje, KingofSpades

        We are counting Rangel as both Hispanic and African American, yes?

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:50:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  We also lost Hansen Clarke (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        and Laura Richardson

        28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

        by bumiputera on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:06:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Good points (0+ / 0-)

          I forgot about those, but at this point I sincerely doubt that Hansen Clarke was African American. I think that his claims that he was were strictly for political reasons and that in reality he's fully Bangladeshi as was alleged during the primary.

          So that should be counted against the Asian percentage only.

          So Veasay replaced Richardson then, which means there's a Hispanic addition that I'm missing apart from Vela and Ruiz.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:10:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  He wasn't alleged to be fully Bangladeshi (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

            his mother was alleged to be white. At the very least he should be counted as Asian, I suppose. I believe his mother was black (grew up in an AME church and so forth), and more importantly racial identity isn't really something that can be questioned.

            28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

            by bumiputera on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:19:44 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ah (0+ / 0-)

              I wasn't following it all that much, but knew he was Bangladeshi and there was something to do with him not being African American.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

              by wwmiv on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:28:09 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  I was not aware of the allegations about Clarke (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, gigantomachyusa

            in fact, I wasn't even aware he was Bangladeshi at all, he was one of those representatives I knew little about, besides being a member of the CBC.  I looked him up and he does pretty much look 100% Bangladeshi, but who knows?  Some people pull one side a lot more than the other.  Rashida Jones is half black but I would have never guessed.

      •  My count: (5+ / 0-)

        African-Americans
        Marc Veasey, Steven Horsford, and Joyce Beatty (the new Columbus, OH district) replace the losses of Allen West, Laura Richardson (her seat cut up and basically replaced with Alan Lowenthal), and Hansen Clarke in Michigan.  So no net change in the numbers, though I think we can agree that the CBC is seeing a serious upgrade considering the internal changes.  Hakeem Jeffries in New York is also considered to be a much more promising congressman than Ed Towns.

        Hispanics
        Vela, Ruiz, Tony Cardenas (who basically got what was left of Howard Berman's old district), and Juan Vargas (replacing Filner in San Diego) are the new additions.  This makes up for Beto O'Rourke replacing Silvestre Reyes in El Paso.  And then yes, Gallego and Garcia beating Canseco and Rivera, respectively.  Also (though this doesn't change the math at all) Gloria Negrete-McLeod beat Joe Baca, which everyone seems happy with.

    •  David Dreier is gone (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, arealmc, jncca, gigantomachyusa

      That's one gay republican congressman lost.  In the Senate they still have Lindsey Graham.  And McHenry is still in the House I believe.

    •  exercise (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Audrid, jncca

      Without looking, list all 19 GOP women house members. I was able to get them all, but the one I got stuck on at the end was actually the one I posted about earlier today!

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:02:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  They were just "testing" for voter fraud (11+ / 0-)

    http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    In Nevada, 56-year-old Roxanne Rubin, a Republican, was arrested on Nov. 2 for allegedly trying to vote twice, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported. The newspaper quoted a report by an investigator with the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office that said Rubin “was unhappy with the process; specifically in that her identification was not checked.”

    Rubin allegedly voted at one polling location in Henderson, Nev. on Oct. 29 and then went to another voting location in Las Vegas to try to vote again. Poll workers told her records indicated she had already voted, but Rubin allegedly told them she hadn’t. A poll worker reportedly overheard Rubin tell another man that she had “signed my name differently, and they did not ask for ID.” She was arrested at the Riviera Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas and charged with a category “D” felony.

    On Tuesday in New Mexico, a Republican poll watcher was taken into police custody after also apparently trying to test the system. According to the Las Cruces Sun-News, the man voted, then obtained a second provisional ballot and announced he was simply “testing the system to see if people could get away with voting twice.”

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:47:42 PM PST

  •  And demographic changes in the Senate (6+ / 0-)

    Women increased from 17 to 20, setting a new record as well.  The gain was similarly lopsided as with the House, with Republicans actually losing a net female senator.  The breakdown went from 12-5 Dem to a 16-4 Dem edge.  80% of the women in the Senate are now Democrats.

    Racial composition is easier to calculate.  There are just three Cuban-Americans in the Senate, two Republican and one Democratic.  There are no senators of Mexican or Puerto Rican ancestry.  There are now 2 senators of Japanese ancestry, although one replaced a senator of Chinese-Hawaiian ancestry.  There are no African-American senators.

    And for the first time in history, an openly GLBT Senator was elected.

  •  Barber takes the lead (15+ / 0-)

    R. Barber (i)     Dem     50.1%     123,650
    M. McSally     GOP     49.9%     123,064

  •  More on the write-ins in GA-10 (5+ / 0-)

    Here are some more great write-ins from GA-10, home to the insane anti-evolution Paul Broun.  My favorite is "Burning Bag of Dog Shit."  Hell, people were voting for Chtulu over Broun!

    The full list can be found here.  Note that that is the list of all write-ins for all races.  Some other great ones: Lizard People, Charles "Fuck Paul Broun" Darwin.  

    This is my home county, by the way.

  •  Good Democrats who need a job now (4+ / 0-)

    Some folks lost office in this cycle, some others took one for the team as challengers in difficult races.

    Considering that the Administration is expected to have some turnover for a second term, who are some of the Democrats that DKE would like to see offered resume-refreshing Executive Branch appointments?

    Brad Miller is my very first thought.

    Are there any Wisconsinites whose profile could be helpfully boosted for a later return to Wisconsin electoral politics after a turn in federal office?

    Betty Sutton has sort of a wonkish expertise (doesn't she?) on consumer protection issues.

    I used to say that Scott Kleeb had earned a major favor and would be a great ambassador to Italy, but it looks as if his wife is very involved now in local activism. Probably best not to wrench them out of their home base. Similar considerations prevent suggesting Andrew Rice.  

    A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

    by Christopher Walker on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:18:33 PM PST

    •  Howard Berman (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY, marieperoy

      was mentioned as a possible Secretary of State candidate, but I think an ambassadorship is more likely

    •  Re: Wisconsinites (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      The only one that comes to my mind is Russ Feingold. It's becoming pretty clear that he wants either a rematch with RoJo, but he's got to wait until 2016 for that and probably would like a position somewhat higher profile than law professor. He'd be a good choice for AG if Obama wanted a clear break from Holder, and would happily take the job.

      Obey is really too old, and Doyle and Falk are irredeemably toxic (particularly Doyle). Barrett isn't toxic, but he's made it abundantly clear that he is far more qualified for his current job as Mayor than any position Obama could offer him. The rest of our bench consists of currently serving legislators and county executives who should likewise stay where they are.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

      by fearlessfred14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:27:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd like Feingold as Attorney-General (0+ / 0-)

        As a senator, he was annoyingly sanctimonious to a fault, voting against the good because it wasn't perfect. But that kind of uncompromising insistence on rights and the rightness of one's cause is better placed in an enforcement position. However, I don't know if either he or the president would like to put Feingold in the position of defending odious violations of civil liberties like the "Patriot Act" and lack of equal due process for prisoners held without trial in Guantanamo.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:53:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  So assuming Peters and Bera win (8+ / 0-)

    Tha CA delegation goes from 34D-19R to 38D-15R it appears.

    •  and in 2014 (5+ / 0-)

      I'd say Gary Miller is a goner, and we get a crack at Jeff Denham and David Valadao (hopefully with a serious candidate).

      Going 41-12 in the delegation has to be a nightmare scenario for Republicans, but it might happen.  And down the road, even McKeon, Royce, Issa, and Campbell might be sweating their races.

      •  curious to see Miller even attemps to moderate (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        or does he want to be another rubber stamp R?

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 03:06:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think there's enough room in the GOP (0+ / 0-)

          caucus for anyone to try and moderate. They barely allowed it when they had a bigger majority than they do now.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 02:04:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Are there really ANY CA districts (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        That are trending against us?  It seems like the whole state ia trending blue.  I mean even in the disasterous 2010 national atmosphere California Dems still swept every statewide race, held every one of their House seats and picked up seats in the state legislature.

        •  See above (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          The northeast.  Not much up there, but the two blue Obama08 counties flipped to Romney by 7 and 10 points.

          DiFi is losing Butte and Nevada too (by about three points).
          So we won't be winning the 1st district anytime soon...

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:16:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  yup! not too shabby (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that's over a 70% Democratic Delegation!

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:38:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  And that's not their floor (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY, bythesea, itskevin

      Several Democratic incumbents probably won't get challenged again, like I think Capps just obliterated the strongest possible opponent Republicans could ever run against her.

      McNerney and Garamendi should draw less attention next around to.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:39:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree with Capps (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But it is my understanding Republicans really really think Garamendi's district is going to drift towards them. I understand the thinking from our side that the longer Garamendi is the incumbent the more entrenched he is but I still think he will be a top target in CA.
        But yeah I think Capps is in for good.

        •  CA3 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, ArkDem14

          No idea why they think it would trend red. Solano will fill up with people who commute into the bay area who tend to be Dems. West Sac will continue to fill up with Dems, Davis still thinks it's part of Marin county, and Woodland is trending blue. The red counties at the north end aren't growing much, and the poulation growth they're getting is mostly from Hispanics.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:40:54 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  most impressive wins (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    in Oregon:
    OR-04: DeFazio 59-39 in a D+2 district

    state legislative Democrats:
    HD-50: Greg Matthews 66-34 in a D+3
    HD-09: Caddy McKeown 55-43 in a R+0
    HD-21: Brian Clem 59-37 in a D+4

    state legislative Republicans:
    HD-07: Bruce Hanna 70-30 in an R+9
    HD-15: Andy Olson 67-33 in an R+5
    HD-20: Vicki Berger 63-37 in a D+1
    HD-54: Jason Conger 57-43 in a D+4

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:27:22 PM PST

  •  Website question (0+ / 0-)

    Has something happened to Leftyblogs.com?  All the sudden my link is failing.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:32:08 PM PST

  •  ... traffic (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Audrid

    Is it just me or is traffic substantially down?

    I think it might be wise to go back to a single Daily Live Digest.

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

    by wwmiv on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:32:52 PM PST

  •  So Rob Zerban did almost just as (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, jj32, JGibson

    well as Pat Kreitlow and Jaime Wall.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:36:05 PM PST

  •  My write in votes (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, MichaelNY

    In races where no Dem makes the ballot I always follow the South Park route and vote for 'Crab People'.

  •  i know you're sick of linda mcmahon... (5+ / 0-)

    from the newhavenindependent.org

    Marvin McClendon kept insisting he was doing “volunteer” work as he knocked on New Haven doors for Linda McMahon. Now he wants his money.

    ....

    Thursday evening McClendon appeared on WTNH with three other New Haven African-Americans saying that the McMahon campaign had never paid them their promised hundreds for working the polls. They claimed when they arrived at the campaign’s State Street headquarters to get paid, the joint had been cleaned out.

    "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

    by thankgodforairamerica on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 03:07:12 PM PST

  •  Kinda sad that Gill lost. (7+ / 0-)

    In 2014, that #IL13 seat is ours!

  •  NJ-Freeholder Elections: Democrats win majority (4+ / 0-)

    on Bergen County Board of Freeholders and have won a unanimous Passaic County Board of Freeholders:
    http://www.northjersey.com/...
    Democrats also netted a second seat on the Atlantic County Board of Freeholders:
    http://www.shorenewstoday.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 03:35:10 PM PST

  •  CT-Sen: Shays attacks the people who fleeced (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, itskevin

    McMahon of her money and CT Republicans of their chances:
    http://www.politico.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 03:47:48 PM PST

    •  I love the McMahon response... (7+ / 0-)
      “Congressman Shays is a classless, bitter sore loser who should do the people of Connecticut a favor and keep his mouth shut and move back to Maryland,’’ Bliss said in an interview. “However, I would like to offer a portion of my salary to be used to pay for the psychiatric care that Congressman Shays desperately needs. And lastly, I know that Congressman Shays has dreams of running for governor, and I will keep my opposition research book under my pillow with the hopes of being able to use it, pro bono, if he launches another failed campaign.’’

      Bliss added, “Congressman Shays is an unemployed, classless man who has nothing better to do than sit around and pontificate about other people’s campaigns. In his last campaign, he received 30 percent of the vote, and the campaign before that [in 2008] he was running ads with Obama when his campaign funds were being embezzled.’’

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:44:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Romney voter targeting system a failure (7+ / 0-)

    improper handling, crashing, and insufficient testing:
    http://www.politico.com/...

    They were flying blind with it and couldn't efficiently hunt down voters.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 03:52:00 PM PST

  •  A comment on PVI (6+ / 0-)

    PVI of course is a measure relating the partisanship of an area to the national vote, to better take into account national headwinds.  A lot of times, we use PVI to judge whether an area is getting redder or bluer.  When Obama outperformed Kerry by 9 points, any area that saw smaller changes than that, or even static changes was considered to be getting redder.

    However, some of those counties that were stable from 2004 to 2008 have actually turned out to be fairly stable again in 2012, despite Obama shedding about 4 points from his 2008 margin.  Consider the following:

    Niagara County, New York, (north of Buffalo) one of the only two counties in the state where Obama actually underperformed Kerry by a fraction of a percent, giving it a significant GOP PVI.  This year: Obama only loses about half a percent compared to 2008, shifting it's PVI back blue again.

    Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, (Pittsburgh and suburbs) a lot of concern was raised in 2008 when Obama simply matched Kerry's 15 point margin.  This year, with the huge dropoff in the surrounding counties in West PA, Obama only got a...15 point margin again, shifting its PVI back towards us.

    Nassau County, New York, (Long Island) I also heard a lot of talk of how Long Island was "turning against us" because Obama only budged this county one point over Kerry's margin, thus giving it a redder PVI.  This year, with Obama shedding 4 points nationally, he loses...just 2 points in Nassau over 2008, moving it's PVI back blue again.

    The point of all this is that you can't assume that a PVI change means the area is trending towards or against us long term.  Some areas are simply more inelastic in their changes and tend to deliver similar margins election after election.  Other areas do the exact opposite and are prone to massive shifts back and forth.  When you look at the midwestern counties that shifted the most towards Obama in 2008 (the areas around Lake Michigan), giving them much bluer PVIs, you need only look at this year's results to see them shifting the most back towards Romney, giving them redder PVIs again.  It's simply prone to bigger swings.

    Of course, two elections in a row of PVI shifts might mean a bit more.  The absolute biggest GOP shifts this year occurred in Appalachia, also the site of the biggest GOP shifts in 2008.  Obviously, we've got some problems there.  And on the other side, California, Oregon, and Washington barely even budged from 2008, despite having some of the strongest Dem shifts in 2008.

  •  SC-Prez: Late returns give Charleston Co. to Obama (8+ / 0-)

    He won 50.4%-48.0%.  In earlier returns, he had narrowly lost it.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 05:16:04 PM PST

  •  WA Gov update (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, James Allen

    Tonight McKenna has cut down on Inslee's lead and is now down appox 42,000, down from about 52,000 this afternoon.

    The vote now stands at:

    Inslee (D) 50.83% (1,281,245)
    McKenna (R) 49.17% (1,239,314)

    In the Sec of State race Kim Wyman (R) keeps expanding her lead and appears to be the likely winner as she has been gaining votes since election night.

    Wyman (R) 51.02% (1,222,777)
    Drew (D) 48.98% (1,174,032)

    There has been a naritive for some time that Repubicans in WA should look to people from King County to win. I wonder instead if it would make more sense instead of aiming to crack 40% in soid Democratic King County if they ran people like Wyman from other Puget Sound areas that are Democratic leaning, like Thurson County where Wyman is from, and try to appeal to those voters who might be more open to voting Republican than the Seattle area? Wyman is winning the otherwise blue Thurston County with 56% of the vote.

    Age 24, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler), getting married Dec 6th

    by KyleinWA on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 05:21:25 PM PST

  •  Obama now up over 3.1 million nationally (7+ / 0-)

    and 64,000 in Florida.

  •  Most Dems in FL State House since 2000 (4+ / 0-)

    Of course that's not saying much.  Dems gained 7 seats in the Florida House this election.  The breakdown will shit from 81R/39D to 74R/46D.  Yes, sad as it may be 46 Dems is the most we've had since 2000.  It's partially due to the "fair districts" amendment, which contrary to it's name produces only slightly less absurd maps than the old maps.

    In the state Senate Dems gained two seats for a 26R/14D map.  Only good thing is we broke their supermajorities in both chambers, so if we can beat Scott in 2014 at least we can limit GOP power.  Unfortunately Dems have virtually no chance of a majority this decade, barring some massive state GOP scandal.  Florida is just naturally a republican gerrymander.

  •  AZ-02: McSally back ahead, but underperforms (9+ / 0-)

    Cochise County just updated its results, and McSally netted 622 votes. That gives her an overall lead of 36 votes (down from 81 this morning).

    The good news is that she underperformed among the 3700 ballots counted in Cochise County today: She had won yesterday's batch by 25%, and she is up 21% in the county, but won this new batch by 16%.

    Barber, meanwhile, won today's batch of ballots in Pima by about 8.8%, which is pretty much what he needs.

    By my count, there should be about 8,000 left in Cochise and about 24,000 in Pima.

  •  MT-SPI Denise Juneau keeps her narrow lead (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

    With 793 of 795 precincts totally counted she keeps a 1,374 votes advantage statewide.

    http://electionresults.sos.mt.gov/...

    Good news.

  •  Vote count: Obama up to 51-48 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, MichaelNY

    I knew it was headed this way, Dubya beat Kerry 62M-59M and translated to 51-48.

    Obama is at a 3.1M lead now and CNN has updated the percentages to 51-48.

    Still millions of votes to count, Obama will expand his raw margin but 51-48 probably is the final percentage.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:57:19 PM PST

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