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10:31 AM PT: There are still three Congressional races outstanding in California, each of which features a Democrat narrowly leading the incumbent Republican. The closeness of these races is reminding us of the protracted statewide count in the Attorney General race between Kamala Harris and Steve Cooley in 2010, but fortunately, each of our outstanding races are each contained in one county.

CA-07: In suburban Sacramento, Democrat Ami Bera narrowly leads Dan Lungren. The Sacto RoV estimates 193,000 ballots left, about half of which will be in CA-07. It's always better to be up than down, but Ami Bera's 184-vote margin still has some more trials to endure with likely more than 95,000 left to count.

CA-36: Moving south in Riverside County, incumbent Republican Mary Bono Mack trails Democrat Raul Ruiz by 4,500 votes, but is refusing to concede. Riverside County tells us that there are 183,000 votes left to count there. Not all of these are in the district - the district only makes up a third of the county - but even given that, there's likely another 60,000-70,000 votes out here. Ruiz's lead is substantially greater than Bera's, meaning that Bono Mack would need to get 53%+ of the vote among the remaining ballots. The Riverside Registrar is promising an update at 6pm PT tonight, so we'll get a better idea then.

CA-52: Finally, in San Diego, Dem Scott Peters leads Brian Bilbray by 685 votes. The San Diego RoV tell us that there are 450,000 votes left outstanding, but again, most of these will fall outside the district. About 100,000 of these will likely be in the district. (This squares nicely with the turnout from CA-50 in 2008, where approximately 300,000 votes were cast.) As with CA-07, it's to early to conclude anything from Peters' narrow margin.

10:40 AM PT: MI-01: Here's another candidate who isn't conceding even though his race was called by the AP: Democrat Gary McDowell, who currently trails GOP Rep. Dan Benishek by 2,297 votes. There are an unknown number of absentee and provisional ballots that remain uncounted, but more intriguing is this statement from McDowell, whose campaign says it is "looking to resolve discrepancies between AP-reported numbers and tallying errors in some counties." If this is in fact the case, it certainly wouldn't be the first time the AP has screwed up the vote count.

11:04 AM PT: IL-Gov: Hahahahah! Soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Joe Walsh, who just got turned out of his seat by Democrat Tammy Duckworth, is refusing to rule out a gubernatorial bid in 2014! Comedy:

Q. What about a bid for governor for you? A possibility?

A. You know that I believe fervently in that vision. I don't know of many other candidates who articulate that vision. Am I going to do something? Oh gosh, I don't know. People approach me every day and ask, "Walsh, are you going to run for the governor? Are you going to run for Senate?" I want to do my part to lead a movement to present a vision to this. I'd rather go down fighting. Democrats have ruined this state but they've been able to do it because the Republicans have allowed them to.

11:24 AM PT (David Jarman): WA-Gov: The numbers tightened a tiny bit with yesterday's count in the Washington gubernatorial race, where, as is Evergreen State tradition, we may be a few more days before we get a call. Dem Jay Inslee now leads GOPer Rob McKenna 51.1-48.9. King County, however, has at least 400,000 ballots yet to count. The Inslee camp estimates that McKenna would need to pull 45% in the remaining King County ballots to win (and 60% in the remaining non-King County ballots); however, he's currently pulling 37.3% in King County. For a more detailed analysis, you might check out the spreadsheet put together by our own dgb. (The "d" is for Dave, as in Dave's Redistricting App.) His straight-line extrapolation points to a 52.2% win for Inslee in the end.

As for why it takes so long to count all of Washington's ballots, it's always a convenient explanation to blame the state's vote-by-mail system, which only requires ballots to be postmarked by Election Day (as opposed to Oregon, which requires them to be received by Election Day). Goldy argues, though, that Oregon manages to get its count done much faster by virtue of putting more resources into the counting process, and by virtue of starting the count earlier (allowing ballots received early to be processed early). King County has a current processing capacity of only 75,000 ballots per day, so as long as that continues, it's going to take more than a week to count regardless of when the ballot deadline is.

11:29 AM PT: FL-18: So even though GOP Rep. Allen West trails Patrick Murphy by more than the 0.5% margin which would enable him to seek a recount, and even though the remaining absentee ballots look very unlikely to change that picture, this is what he's doing:

West has filed an injunction against Palm Beach and St. Lucie counties supervisor of elections to impound their voting machines and paper ballots. West also is demanding a hand recount in St. Lucie County.
A court hearing is taking place in Palm Beach on Thursday at 5pm; a hearing in St. Lucie is scheduled for Friday. Murphy's campaign has issued a fundraising appeal to help defray the legal bills they've suddenly started running up. (Republican law firms are notorious for deploying their associates pro bono to help candidates like West. More like faux bono, amirite?)

11:49 AM PT: FL Lege: Here's a new category to add to the DLCC's list: supermajorities broken. While Florida Democrats are still deep in the minority in both houses of the state legislature, they saw important gains on Tuesday night, and quite critically, those gains have erased the GOP's two-thirds majorities in both chambers. Also of note: Chris Dorworth, who was expected to become the next House speaker, appears to be on the verge of losing to an unheralded and underfunded Democratic challenger. While it would be an understatement to say there's an extremely long way to go before Democrats can even think about taking back power, at least this will put a few brakes on Republican extremism.

12:12 PM PT: NV-Sen: Fuck this, I'm already bored of the 2014 elections. Thankfully, we can move on to 2016, because Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says he's "planning on running for reelection" four years hence. Okay, done with 2016. Anyone talk to Heidi Heitkamp yet to see if she plans to seek a second term in '18?

Back to the already-ancient 2012 races for a moment, though. Reid Wilson points out that Nevada's unique "none of the above" ballot option took 45,000 votes in the Senate contest, while GOP Sen. Dean Heller beat Democrat Shelley Berkley by only 12,000. It's hard to say whom NOTA might have helped, but you'll recall that Republicans launched an unsuccessful lawsuit earlier this year to overturn the institution. It's also the first time in quite a while that NOTA (which is only used in statewide races) drew more votes than the winner's margin.

12:27 PM PT: OH-Gov: I think I love former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland as much as I hate the man who beat him two years ago, Republican John Kasich, and I fervently hope that Teddy Ballgame decides on a rematch for 2014. He's always kept the door open to the possibility, but he's 71 and there are other up-and-coming Dems (like Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald) who need Strickland to decide so that they can move forward with their own plans. But for now, we're still reading tea leaves, and here are dregs from the latest cuppa:

"Am I the candidate that is going to run against him? I'm certainly not prepared to say that," Strickland told The Plain Dealer just hours after both Obama and Brown were re-elected. "But I will be fully participating in efforts to get a Democrat in the governor's office. And I think there (are) strong possibilities other than myself that could do that. I haven't closed any doors but I haven't made any plans either."

12:36 PM PT (David Jarman): Polltopia: Sensing a new trend today: newspapers hanging their own pollsters out to dry. One is the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, which published a story about how the pollsters basically got it right... except for their very own pollster, Susquehanna (who almost single-handedly got susceptible people thinking that Pennsylvania was competitive). That seems like basic CYA than an ominous callout, though, as Susquehanna is a Republican polling firm and the Tribune-Review is an explicitly right-wing paper.

The second one seems more important, though: a much bigger and more serious paper, the Miami Herald, published a story giving its own much higher-profile and more seriously-regarded pollster, Mason-Dixon, the opportunity to address its final poll that gave Mitt Romney a 6-point lead on the election's eve. M-D's director, Brad Coker, goes ahead and blames Hurricane Sandy for screwing up his sample (which, of course, had nothing to do with Florida). Given the skepticism with which their article treats Coker's excuses, you've got to wonder whether Mason-Dixon (who were already sacked by the Las Vegas Review-Journal in 2010 after their woeful NV-Sen polling) will still be working for the Herald next time.

12:49 PM PT: The Live Digest continues here.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Charlie Crist certainly seems to be (14+ / 0-)

    one of the winners of this election.

    Will be interesting to see what his next step. My guess is another run for governor, given the way he strongly criticized Scott's handling of the voting.

  •  VA-Gov: Bolling tries to use VA-Prez results (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    against Cooch, not that it'll help him much:
    http://www.politico.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:08:03 AM PST

  •  Did Mitt Romney win? (12+ / 0-)

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

    by WisJohn on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:08:07 AM PST

  •  Rove having to face all the donors he let down: (15+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:10:00 AM PST

  •  My hope for California (5+ / 0-)

    Is that they move for bold progressive change.  All too many deep blue states with huge Dem majorities just get lazy and don't take advantage of their position foe real change.  Finally passing single-payer a big one.

  •  KY-Sen 2014 (0+ / 0-)

    The "Ashley Judd for U.S. Senate" rumors are apparently already starting. I've actually heard rumors that Judd may be considering a run against McConnell.

    Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:13:59 AM PST

  •  Elections? Sign me up (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    geoneb

    for precise actions aimed at blocking Jeb Bush or any other member of that alleged crime famliy.

    Sign me up for precise fund-raising on Act Blue.  It's never too soon. . . . . Plus I think it helps inoculate representatives against lobbyists' influence.

    Thanks for all your good work.

  •  Am I the only one who hates how the NY times did (12+ / 0-)

    their 2008 to 2012 shift map?  The stupid arrows obscure most of the counties.  Why couldn't they have just done deeper shades of red and blue? That's what they did last time and their maps looked great...

    Oh well, there will always be uselectionatlas.org to see shifts/trends once the results are certified.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:19:54 AM PST

    •  Yeah, far too hard to see the fine points. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      I was able to divine that Obama improved over 2008 in the Rio Grande and Black Belt regions.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:21:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I like it. (0+ / 0-)

      It's kind of hard to see, but it's also a great short hand way to see how counties changed. Then again, you could probably accomplish the same thing without the arrows.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:06:27 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree. I liked it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8

        It really shows where the country shifted from 08 to 2012. Promising signs in the black belt, although that may be a little misleading if it is true that the Southern evangelical white voters stayed home instead of voting for a Mormon. it also shows just how badly Obama fell even further in places in Appalachia and Texas.

        •  It's more misleading (0+ / 0-)

          some, and perhaps  a lot, of the areas that shifted did so by a relatively small numbers of votes. Mormonism might have something to do with it, but then, some of these counties are so small, the totals changing by just a few votes can skew the numbers.

          I'm quite puzzled about what to think about Texas. Unless there are more votes added to the totals in coming weeks, it looks like turnout was flat or even down from 2008, and not just for our side. It has a history of low voter turnout, but to actually fall is something else, given how much the population keeps increasing.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:52:39 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  You have to zoom in close to see it well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:52:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Romney knows he screwed up on Benghazi issue (10+ / 0-)

    Said that if he walked back his remarks on Sept. 11th, the neocons would have figuratively bit his head off.
    http://www.politico.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:20:53 AM PST

  •  NH-St. House: Democrats now at or above 220 seats (14+ / 0-)

    http://www.boston.com/...

    Also, Democrats won back their 3-2 majority on the Executive Council.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:24:30 AM PST

    •  So (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      we won back the state house? Good, stick it to the wacky doodles that controlled the state house these last two years.

      Mitt Romney: Lacking judgement

      by ehstronghold on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:30:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Executive Council was pretty impressive (7+ / 0-)

      The legislature Gerrymandered them to try to ensure GOP control.  Didn't work out so well...

      https://www.nh.gov/... (pdf)

      Check out district 2 (yellow) especially.  It's supposed to be a Dem vote sink.

      30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

      Truman: "The buck stops here!"
      Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

      by Marcus Graly on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:53:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Dear New Hampshire (6+ / 0-)

      Vote to do early voting ASAP.  I know your state prides itself on on voting but at some point a wave of GOPers is going to try and make voting very very hard.

      And if you really want to screw with next GOP wave, institute the weakest voter ID imaginebale and then make it effective in 2038.  that way you can say you already have voter ID when Kelly Ayotte tries to lobby the (inevitable someday in the future) GOP legislature to pass it in the future.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:04:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes (6+ / 0-)

        Early voting and voting by mail should be the Democratic version of Voter ID. Long-term can't-go-back-on-it election reforms that should be put in place as soon as we take back power in a state to help our side forever.

        •  Should happen (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Englishlefty, bear83, MichaelNY

          In Maine, New Hampshire for sure.  Even NY/NJ, with their GOP-infused opinions on the matter due to Christie and NYSS, might see the light given Sandy.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:13:48 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I dislike this voting by mail (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, askew, MichaelNY

          The states that have vote by mail are the states where we are STILL counting ballots. I am all for promoting early voting, etc. But remember, Minnesota, which yet once again had the highest turnout in the entire country has no early voting, and no vote by mail. If Democrats want to push for things to improve turnout, promote same-day registration. That's the big one.

          •  Who's going to be the Speaker in MN? (0+ / 0-)

            Thissen?
            Will Metzen be the Senate President again?

            Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

            by WisJohn on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:00:30 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Paul Thissen (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              WisJohn

              Senate president is based on seniority, so yes.

              Tom Bakk will take over as Senate Majority leader (The real leader of the senate)

              There is currently some wrangling over House Majority leader, but it likely will go to a suburban Democrat, as Minneapolis and the Iron Range already have Thissen and Bakk respectively.

          •  I do too (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            hence why I prefer voting in person (either early or on election day)

            But it is very helpful for many voters who don't have the time or the motivation to make it all the way to polls. In states like Florida where there can be long lines to vote, I'd prefer to go through the vote by mail method. It would save me time and money.

            "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

            by lordpet8 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:19:07 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  we're trying to do that here (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            but there's a lot of resistance.  It's taking time.  I remember researching it in an internship when it was first being considered back in 2006.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:14:55 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Same day registration 2014 CA (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Daman09, askew, MichaelNY

            Same day registration will be in CA, probably 2014, tho there is a possibility it will be delayed to 2016

            http://blogs.sacbee.com/...

          •  Well, of the two states that do vote-by-mail (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Oregon is actually already done counting, I think. Washington's problem is a) you can mail ballots in up to the day itself and b) they don't fund it well enough for counting to be expedited.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:48:38 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Add same-day registration to that list. (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rdw72777, lordpet8, condorcet, MichaelNY

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:58:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  I like what I'm reading today (21+ / 0-)

    Many stories about republicans blaming Romney's defeat on him not being conservative enough.  A lot of talk about stepping up efforts to run even crazier teabaggers in the future.  They really are clueless as to why they lost.

  •  Additional post election thoughts (10+ / 0-)

    I think I overestimated Mike McIntyre's electoral appeal, or at least underestimated how amazingly effective the GOP gerrymander was.

    The DCCC spent something like $2 million on him and he'll almost certainly be the most conservative Dem in the house.  They should have just triaged him and put that money into getting candidates like Gary McDowell and David Gill over the top.  This is reason #1 why I never have and never will give to the DCCC.  Even though they have a shitload more info on winnable races, they'd rather back a conservative incumbent over a much more liberal challenger when either race was winnable, but not both (with their budget).

    McIntyre's going to have to struggle every midterm to win reelection and the only reason I don't think he's an instant goner for 2014 is that his district is only 17% black rather than 30% and he'll have incumbency in new sections like Johnston County (Rouzer's base).  Still, does anyone think McDowell, or Joe Miklosi wouldn't have been reelected in 2014? Probably not barring a 2010 repeat.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:27:57 AM PST

    •  I don't have a big anti-Blue Dog bias... (9+ / 0-)

      But I kind of have to agree with this. Rep. McIntyre is less useful than a Rep. Miklosi would have been, and it took a lot of DCCC resources to keep his seat blue. Those resources could have been used elsewhere.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:34:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah (6+ / 0-)

      The DCCC needs to prioritize seats that won't cost so much damn money in the future to hold.  Build a solid base of safe incumbents, not an over-extended bunch of Blue Dogs in red seats that will get blown away by a GOP wave.

      •  The problem is, you are probably (4+ / 0-)

        never, ever going to convince the powers that be to support a challenger unless there are clear signals the incumbent is doomed. For better or worse, incumbents are usually favored.

        I'm more curious to learn about what the DCCC or any similar group does to help those who need money get it. I would assume it's something, but what do I know? Perhaps there's some improvement we can make that would give those who lack any base of serious money a leg up. I mean, if you've got 250 rich donors around the country who are willing to fork over some cash to people in marginal seats, you can give them a fairly big lift pretty quickly.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:16:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  well that's the problem with NRCC too (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, bumiputera, skibum59, MichaelNY

      both Committees seem to be always more focused defending their current incumbents than truly expanding the map.

      In 2002 NRCC was spending a good deal trying to save Connie Morella instead of targeting Jim Matheson

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:23:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Suspending Adverts = Head Fake? (8+ / 0-)

    It seems kind of odd to me that the two big cases this year where House candidates claimed to be stepping down their advertising (Tierney, Renacci) resulted in wins for both of those candidates.

    Was this a strategy to get the other side to lose focus and/or ferocity?

  •  Impact of Obama's 2nd term cabinet choices? (4+ / 0-)

    From Politico:

    My questions:

    There’s also a growing list of people the administration is looking to find spots for: Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick most of all, as well as former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm and outgoing North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad.

    There’s also Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), a former Army Ranger, who’s name perennially comes up for the job.

    The uncertainty about Chafee might also impact a possible pick for attorney general, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.).

    The main buzz here is for Patrick, an assistant attorney general under Clinton before being elected in Massachusetts.

    I do not want Conrad anywhere near the cabinet.

    If Patrick leaves to become AG, what happens in MA?

    Is Brown a shoo-in for Kerry's seat if Kerry becomes SoS?

    Who moves up in RI if Whitehouse or Reed go to Obama's cabinet?

    And any predictions on how long before Ginsburg or Breyer retires?

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:37:16 AM PST

  •  Popular Vote now at 50.5-48.0 (14+ / 0-)

    Next stop for Romney; 47%!

  •  yes I'm accusing a party committee of malpractice (8+ / 0-)

    it is simply not doing your job, when there are so few elections for governor going on, when you get someone who is actually a good candidate, so good that he loses by just 3.2% while having pretty much no national support, to not go in and help him.

    If the DGA had gone into IN-Gov, he would've been closer.  If they had, and Obama had also contested the state, Gregg would've won, I have no doubt.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:39:49 AM PST

  •  Absurdly early 2014 target list (10+ / 0-)

    Assuming Dems win the uncalled races they're ahead in, plus AZ-02 (strongly suspect the remaining ballots lean our way).  Listed in order of likely competitiveness

    Defense
    NC-07 - McIntyre
    UT-04 - Matheson
    GA-12 - Barrow
    WV-03 - Rahall
    FL-26 - Garcia
    NY-18 - Maloney
    NH-01 - Shea-Porter

    Offense
    CA-31 - Miller
    IL-13 - Davis
    NV-03 - Heck
    NY-19 - Gibson
    CO-06 - Coffman
    CA-10 - Denham
    NY-11 - Grimm
    FL-02 - Southerland
    NE-02 - Terry
    NY-23 - Reed
    CA-21 - Valadao
    FL-10 - Webster

    Plenty of others of course, but I have them slotted at "Likely" at this ridiculously early moment.  The ones above I expect to be competitive already.

    Good news is, we're down to almost rock bottom in terms of defending Blue Dogs in very red seats, so we don't have to waste so much money on defense.  Strange to see Democrats around 200 seats in the House and only four of them fit that category.

    Bad news is, the GOP gerrymanders are solid.  I don't have us with any decent pickup opportunities in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Indiana, New Jersey, or North Carolina (or anywhere in the non-Florida South, for that matter).  If we are to claw back some more seats, it will probably happen in California, New York, and Florida mostly.  We looking at a future of extremely polarized congressional representation.  Republicans were completely shut out of New England yet have control.  They could go as low as 12 seats in California, and 3 seats in New York, and still have control.

    Ultimately, if we are to win back control, we will have to somehow crack the GOP gerrymanders that have left Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan with such lopsided Republican delegations even as they all voted for Obama again.

    •  Add Peter King to that list. (6+ / 0-)

      In fact, you could probably add all of the New York Republicans to that list, even Richard Hanna.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:18:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, not Richard Hanna (0+ / 0-)

        I really think that as long as he can win a Republican primary, he can keep that seat. As a matter of fact, depending on the circumstances, I would consider voting for him if I were living in his district - and I'm a social democrat!

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:49:23 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  And push for independent redistricting (8+ / 0-)

      in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Probably won't be able to change the maps before 2020, but at least we won't be caught with our pants down like in 2010.

      24 ~ AZ-01 ~ that flagstaff dude on SSP

      by Fox Ringo on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:22:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  2020 probably won't be bad... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        borodino21

        For redistricting.  

        Keep in mind that:

        1.  It will be a presidential year.
        2.  Latino and Asian voting share will probably be around 2% higher each.
        3.  The white voting share will have fallen.
        4.  The current oldest cohort (Silents - the most conservative) will be dying off in large numbers.  

        If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say we'll have, following 2020:

        Total control in NY
        Split or total control in PA
        Split control in OH
        Split or total control in MI
        Split or total control in WI
        Split or total control in VA
        Split control in FL
        Possible split control in TX

        We'll probably have some role in Arizona, but since they use a commission, it won't matter.  Same for NC, where we'll be able to elect a governor, but they cannot veto, hence the R's will probably stay in control for awhile yet.  

        •  Yeah all we need is some kind of split control (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisJohn, borodino21

          whether it's one chamber of a state legislature, or the governor, and the next time redistricting comes up we can force court-drawn maps.  That alone would doom the large GOP edge in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  Easily 2 to 3 seats instantly gained per state, with possibilities of more.

        •  I don't see us winning the WI assembly (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisJohn

          that map is absolutely brutal.

        •  Screw that (0+ / 0-)

          After seeing how the house was effectively drawn in a way to prevent a dem majority, I am on the independent redistricting train for all states.  I felt differently about it in CA before it became law, and even voted against it, but the commission has actually been largely successful.  I really don't want to have to worry about who is in the governors office in FL, OH, PA and other big states when redistricting comes around.

          Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

          by Daman09 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 01:16:37 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The problem is... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            Not every state has an initiative process.  They are very rare east of the Mississippi.  I just don't see how, without initiatives, you'd get the legislature to agree to castrate itself in terms of redistricting.  Elected officials like drawing their own seats.  

            •  This should be a new democratic policy position (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, jncca

              Fair redistricting.  It not only wins then support from good government folks, but also makes the GOP look like the support a broken system.

              If the democratic party jumps on board with this, It wouldn't be hard to see states like NY and NJ get this shit sorted out quickly.

              Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

              by Daman09 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 03:53:40 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Might we be able to take TN-04 from DeJarlais? (0+ / 0-)

      Just a few years ago, with the vast electoral success of such red-district Dems as C. Edwards, Chandler, Lampson, Minnick, and many others, I would have said we could totally do this.

      But the reality is, districts are voting much closer to their PVI for their representatives these days.  Unfortunately for us.

    •  Add NC-09 to that list (9+ / 0-)

      Pittenger only won 52-46 against non-quite some dudette (but completely broke) Mecklenburg County Commissioner Jennifer Roberts. No outside money was spent. She might be our second MVP besides Shinagawa for exposing unexpectedly vulnerable targets. Additionally, the district is rapidly trending leftwards. Rougemapper says s/he expects the district to go Dem before the end of the decade, even if Democrats continue to ignore it (which would be criminal.)

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:04:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  more (8+ / 0-)

      Defense, in no order:

      CA52, Peters - narrow margin, need to get people to show up for the midterm
      CA7, Bera - see above
      AZ1, Kirkpatrick - she should be ok, she's good at working the rez
      AZ2, Barber - he should win in the final count. See CA52. It's conceivable that Giffords will want to return and Barber would defer to her, which would take this off the table.
      AZ9, Sinema - see CA52. The trend is favorable here but the Dem base is much younger than the GOP base.
      IL10, Schneider - he should be ok long term as the district has moved away from its red roots, but may need some help in 2014.
      NY21, Owens - again! This should get easier every cycle as he gets more entrenched and the district trends blue.
      MA6, Tierney or someone else - whether he's in or out, this will be a race.
      FL18, Murphy - may be a tough hold in a midterm against a non-nutball.
      NH2, Kuster - should be a hold but can't get sloppy here

      offense:

      IN2, Walorski - lost by 1.4% despite underfunding. Won't have Donnelly tailwind, though.
      PA12, Rothfus - Critz couldn't quite get over the hump, see if Altmire wants another shot
      KY6, Barr - might be easier in a midterm
      MI7, Walberg - Dems ran a no-$ truther and lost by just 10, seems likely to trend blue
      MI11, probably open - Detroit's older suburbs should continue to trend blue, could be worth a shot
      MI1, Benishek - could be competitive even if Stupak isn't up for a return
      NC9, Pittenger - trending blue, Dems lost by just 6 this cycle even with no $

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:12:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I disagree... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        That NH-2 is in big danger.  

        Despite Kuster being a frosh, and Shea-Porter having some past experience, NH-1 is more right wing by a good deal, and Shea-Porter won by a smaller margin (3.7% versus 5.1%.  

        I mostly disagree with most of your offense list, which seems to be mainly chasing back the seats moving away from us.  IMHO we need to target:

        CA-11 - Should be a gimmie.  
        CA-21 - A seat this Latino shouldn't be held by a Republican
        CO-6 - Denver suburbs should continue to trend blue
        MI-11 - Reasonably close already, and the guy is a nutter.  
        NV-3 - Fourth bluest seat held by a Republican, and the burgeoning Latino vote will only make it closer.  
        VA-10 - Much redder than it used to be, but not out of reach, especially with how NOVA is bluing.  

      •  Brad Schneider will be the next Jim Himes (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, WisJohn, MichaelNY

        People who really wanted moderate Republicans year after year realizing that Democrats aren't so bad. I think he's go great odds for next time around.

        Likewise, Bilbray had a lot of goodwill and a moderate reputation. People won't really miss that.

        28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

        by bumiputera on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:29:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  CA-36 would be defense too (0+ / 0-)

        no?

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 03:01:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  There are a few in Michigan (4+ / 0-)

      Obviously it's worth keeping trying in MI-1; MI-11 might be competitive if the Republican primary is as hilarious as it'll probably be and MI-3 didn't see as much attention as Amash's lunacy might justify.

      For Pennsylvania, PA-8 is probably the only winnable target, because PA-12 isn't going to swing back and PA-15 won't flip unless Dent retires. That said, SE Pennsylvania is pretty reliable Democratic and Obama's margin barely shrank at all in Delaware County, so it might be worth a tentative effort in PA-6 and PA-7 in the hope that they're competitive by the end of the decade.

      In Ohio, I guess OH-6 might be more winnable in a mid-term, but both that and OH-16 are longshots. The map here is going to be really difficult to crack.

      IN-2 justifies a little more effort. I agree with you that NJ and NC both look pretty hopeless, assuming NC-9's closeness this year won't be reflected in future years.

  •  Senate 2014 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, MichaelNY

    Okay, let the speculation begin.

    From what I've seen the Democrats will be forced to play almost entirely defense. The only reasonable target is Maine, and the way Susan Collins trounced her opponent in 2008 of all years doesn't leave much room for optimism.

    So what are the most dangerous opponents for Dem incumbents and which ones can be the Akins/Mourdocks of 2014?

    •  Appointments (6+ / 0-)

      Obama can't afford to screw around like last time. Senators are worth their weight in electoral gold.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:59:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  ME and KY is it for possible pickups. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      marieperoy, Englishlefty, MichaelNY

      Collins may finally retire.  Her colleague is retired and she can make good on the term limits pledge that she broke in 2008.

      To your last question, I can easily see AK-Sen being that way.  If Joe Miller runs and wins the primary, Begich is likely favored.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:59:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Collins (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bear83, MichaelNY

        Even if Collins does not retire, we have no choice to go aggressively after her this time. And not screw the pooch.

      •  Georgia is the only other (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, MichaelNY

        But without presidential turnout boosting African-American votes probably a bridge too far. Best candidate maybe Thurbert Baker?

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:07:07 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I dont see Georgia or Kentucky right now (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, MichaelNY
          •  Gotta try (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, MichaelNY

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:44:16 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I guess what I should have said... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Much like OGGoldy below, I don't see Kentucky, against McConnell, a proven vote getter unlikely to implode who has some popularity in the state, going Democrat  in a midterm election even if Beshear runs against him (or Crit Luellen, for that matter). Everyone who says Kentucky as a possiblity hasn't really indicate how it would become a possiblity other than "we have a strong bench." Look at how badly Dems lost in 2008, how Ben Chandler lost. How are we expecting that the Dems who didn't turn out during a presidential year are going to turn out to beat McConnell in an off-year.

              Anyway, that's why I don't see Kentucky.

          •  Georgia will be a good bet... (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, Englishlefty, lordpet8, MichaelNY

            later in the decade, as the black population continues to increase.  My hope is around 2020 we can elect a Democratic governor, and ensure no super-majorities in the state legislature.  That way gerrymandering in 2020 will be blocked, and a fair map will be drawn by the courts.  Due to VRA concerns it would still probably be a 60/40ish map in most years, but winnable under the right circumstances.

            Kentucky I differ on.  The state is drifting away from us, albeit not as fast downticket as the deep south.  It will be much harder to elect a Democrat to federal office in 2020 than 2014.  

      •  Kentucky (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        markhanna, aamail6, MichaelNY

        Given the results in Kentucky on Tuesday, I doubt we can play for Kentucky with Obama leading the Democratic Party.

        •  Where else might we get votes from in Kentucky? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          I wouldn't expect a Democrat from Kentucky to do that much worse than Obama did on Tuesday, and even if he or she does, there's only so much further this person could fall before getting no votes at all.

          The problem with Kentucky is that unlike a lot of other states, there's no one part of the state that simply towers above all others with voters, with the exception of Jefferson County. Fayette County is about three to four times smaller, and then there's Kenton, Boone, and Warren. After that, I don't think any of them have more than 100,000 people, let alone 100,000 voters. In fact, I think there are only 16 counties in the entire state with more than 50,000 people. So I have to wonder where these votes might come from. At least in some counties in Western Kentucky, there wasn't as gigantic shift away from Obama as there was in Eastern Kentucky--more in line with the overall shift downward for him nationwide.

          For what it's worth, if he received 60 instead of 54.80 percent of the vote in Jefferson County; 55 instead of 49.30 percent in Fayette County, 40 instead of 36.80 percent in Kenton County; 35 percent instead of 29.80 percent in Boone County; and 45 instead of 38.30 percent in Warren County, he'd have roughly 31,000 more votes in the state. That would have given him about 39.53 percent instead of about 37.80 percent.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:46:11 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  AK-sen: I read recently (6+ / 0-)

        That Begich actually has pretty high favorables in AK, If he survives in 2014, he could have that senate seat for life.

        Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

        by Daman09 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 01:19:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Way too early to know that (6+ / 0-)

      That said, I think Dems are whispering about making KY another offensive possibility too. It is a long shot but KY has a huge Democratic bench and McConnell could be weakened by a primary challenge.
      If we had any bench in SC, I'd also bet the primary challenge to Graham could weaken the ultimate nominee but Sheheen is the only plausible statewide nominee and he is clearly running for Governor.

      •  Would be nice to finally decapitate R leadership (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, gigantomachyusa, MichaelNY

        in the Senate.  Get them back for beating Daschle.

        •  they've gotten pretty good at that. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisJohn, MichaelNY

          We also lost Scott Lucas and Ernest McFarland back to back elections 1950 and 1952. But hey I guess we wouldn't have gotten LBJ!

          McConnell has had a few close calls, we just need to run the right kind of Dem here.

          "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

          by lordpet8 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:32:32 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It won't happen in 2014 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, MichaelNY

            I'm sorry to be cynical, but just saying "we have a good bench" in Kentucky and pointing out McConnell had a close call in 2008 doesn't counter this:

            1). Obama lost the state by a huge number in 2012.

            2). McConnell won 64% of the vote in the last off-year election (2002)

            3). He might get a tea party challenge, but he'll be wily enough to beat it back.

            4). Crit Luellin. Two words: Robin Carnahan. Steve Bashear. Two words: William Weld.

            Finally, Tom Dashele lost in 2004, during an election year which his state went heavliy for the opposing parties presidential candidate.

            Yep, we just need the right kind of Dem - in 2020. No one is offering any real evidence McConnell is vulnerable in 2014. I guess you can say - the Senate Republicans will be hated in 2014 or McConnell will be involved in scandal, but by that logic any Republican is 2014 is vulnerable.

            Sorry, I'm bustin chops on this one. Right now, I only see one vulnerable Republican - Collins, for 2014. But that's fine - lets just win on defense. Maybe a tea partier takes out Chambliss and helps put that seat in play. We have huge opportunities in 2016.

      •  Our lack of a big name candidate in these races (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        marieperoy, WisJohn, MichaelNY

        shouldn't scare us away. Heitkamp was not exactly a small town city council member, but she had been out of politics for over a decade and ended up running a hugely successful campaign. There's also John Edwards, or Ron Johnson on the other side, as an example of a candidate with no background jumping in and winning.

        It might be harder in some of these races because there's a lot of racial and/or regional polarization, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:31:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Captio in WV (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, Englishlefty

      Jindal in LA
      Noem in SD
      Maybe McHenry in NC
      Tim Griffin in AR
      Palin in Alaska?

      •  Mike Rounds is running in SD (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Paleo, marieperoy, Englishlefty, MichaelNY

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:18:31 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  In South Dakota (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, Englishlefty, MichaelNY

        Mike Rounds has already indicated interest in running, probably freezing out Noem.

        Palin won't run (does she even live there anymore?) and probably won't be elected if she did.  Quitting midway through a gubernatorial term to whine for a paycheck and make the state look silly for having elected you generally does not go over well.

        McHenry might be close to a Democratic dream opponent in NC, along with Virginia Foxx.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:27:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Where is the Foxx 2014 Effing Crazy Victory Fund? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gigantomachyusa, MichaelNY

          I'm ready to chip in some money. Not only would she probably guarantee us the seat, but the ongoing trainwreck of her candidacy would probably make Sharron Angle tell her to take it down a notch.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:37:07 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Alaska might not be too tough (4+ / 0-)

          Given pre-Palin polls in 2008 and actual results this year. Not too concerned about MN and Oregon. NC will be competitive but she has a great contrast to make. Louisiana are problematic without Landrieu and Pryor but with both there is a chance. WV is a struggle with or without Rocky. Rounds is favorite I think. Maybe down 3-4 seats.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:38:47 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  AK (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico, bjssp, bumiputera, MichaelNY

            AK was actually no worse than MT at the presidential level this year, Romney won both by about 13.5. Unless Parnell runs, the GOP doesn't appear to have a Rehberg type to make a race of it. As of now I would guess that Begich will be favored. (The GOP will probably go berserk and nominate Miller, in which case Begich will clean his clock.)

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:56:13 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Guys come on, repeat after me (7+ / 0-)

        Sarah Palin will never run for congress.  Ever.  Her entire "political" career right now is based around fleecing conservative donors of their money by pretending to be a right wing hero.

        Also McHenry won't run, he's not giving up a safe house seat to get clobbered by Hagan.  It will be someone from the legislature or more hopefully Renee Ellmers.  I suppose one of the new freshmen congressmen could run, but they probably would want more than 1 term under their belts before running for senate.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:40:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Reid should end the filibuster (5+ / 0-)

      and go to simple majority vote, so we can spare Pryor, Manchin, Landrieu, and Begich if we need to.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:27:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  But James, how would we stop (5+ / 0-)

        the onslaught of dangerously populist legislation that passes the house because they don't have a filibuster!!11!

        Aka, the stupid shit I hear all the time in poli sci classes.

        Yeah I really wish they would end the filibuster, mostly because I think the GOP will do it in a heartbeat the next time they have the trifecta, plus Democrats don't even use it when we can (Alito anyone?) and it did nothing to stop the budget-destroying Bush tax cuts.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:45:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Does Nate Silver have a model (6+ / 0-)

    that can predict cabinet selections? :)

  •  Florida lead is up to 51,000 (6+ / 0-)
  •  Gallup: polls are not meant to be predictive (10+ / 0-)
  •  Question about DCCC Money (0+ / 0-)

    I am pretty ignorant about this process, but I have to wonder, how does the DCCC help its marginal candidates with fund raising?

    I ask because it seems relatively simple to give some people who quite literally have nothing a quick and easy boost. If you can get 250 rich Democrats to give $1,000 a piece to someone like Shirley McKellar, they'd pretty quickly have a solid base to try to shake up the race. If we figure that there are at least 100 Democrats in races where the Republican will always win, that's only 100,000 per rich Democrat.

    You can argue that this money would be better spent in some other fashion, but given that each donating to all seemingly hopeless candidates doesn't come close to breaking the bank for someone in a position to easily writing a $1,000 check, it doesn't seem like it would come at the cost of these people. In other words, everyone could get a check, and perhaps even up to the legal limit.

    This seems almost too easy, so I have to wonder why it isn't done. Are they afraid of the backlash from someone in provincially-minded district realizing that the Democrat got money from out of state? Is it just that hard to get people to write checks that appear to cost them very, very little overall?

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:27:36 AM PST

    •  250,000 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, Englishlefty, MichaelNY

      Is not enough to run a house race on. That's what needs to be raised in every two months to stay competitive.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:37:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, it's a sharp improvement (0+ / 0-)

        from some of these people who have basically no money at all. I don't think it's going to give them a huge edge, let alone propel them to victory, but it might give them a chance to make some impact. And that's before you figure that money can beget money.

        Also, I chose 250 because it's a small number in a country as big as ours. I am sure you could find quite a few rich Democrats.

        Again, I don't want to give the impression that this is all that is required to win. It might make no difference at all in the end. But given that it might not cost us all that much when it comes to funding other races, I don't see the harm in trying to give people a greater level of resources to see if they can get something going.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:59:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Lost opportunity in MI-11 (12+ / 0-)

    If Gary Peters had run in MI-11, he would have won easily.  Peters' decision to run in the 14th cost Democrats a seat in the House.  More of Peters' old district was in the new 11th (33%) than in the 14th (27%).  At the time of the decision, McCotter had not yet imploded, but it would have been a tossup race or better even then.

  •  So Nate Silver (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingTag, WisJohn, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

    was pretty much right on the money for the Presidential race. But the senate stuff not so much. It seems he still has a 92.5% chance of Berg winning the North Dakota Senate race. I guess it's just one tough state to poll. While I think Heidi's win was a nice upset I would still rate it lower than the chances of Romney winning the presidency

    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

    by lordpet8 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:35:03 AM PST

    •  He missed one race (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, SaoMagnifico, bfen, MichaelNY

      And let's be honest, everyone that has a microphone predicted Berg to win, and polls suggested as much.

      •  he missed 2 (4+ / 0-)

        I don't know why but this is the second time I'm hearing Silver missed one race. He also said Rehberg would win MT. He missed 2. I'm not harping on Nate...his models are great, but he did miss 2. His MT problem is a lot like his ND problem: not enough polling went into the models and he over-estimated/accounted for the lean of the state at the presidential level.

        •  That he had MT as a close race (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, MichaelNY

          It's not out of line to miss a race you project in the 6X%-3X%. It was the fact that he was 90%+ sure of North Dakota that caught him some flak.

        •  Heck, I called all the senate races right (4+ / 0-)

          based on my gut! I'm like the Joe Morgan of calling Senate races - I really liked Heitkamp's intangibles, but felt Berkley just wasn't clutch.

          And while we're on the subject of stuff I got right:

          Totally called Colorado based on early voting numbers, even while most people seemed to be freaking out about those same numbers, which I found inexplicable. It was also based on the obvious fact that CO demographic trends are moving toward us at a brisk pace. And I also thought there was a good chance that we'd win VA by more than OH.

          On the other hand, I was convinced until late 2011 that Obama had no chance to be re-elected, so...

        •  atleast that one he gave a decent (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          percent chance of the Tester victory.
          the ND race was looking like Nebraska based on his numbers, clearly not the case. But I'm fine with that, no one is perfect, and he already gets enough crap from the RW folks out there.

          "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

          by lordpet8 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:02:52 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I'm totally not faulting him (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and I too had this seat tilting/leaning R. I just wish I knew which polls he factored in for that race.

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:39:00 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  There were so few polls in ND which (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, itskevin, HoosierD42, MichaelNY

      hurt Nate's model.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:51:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nat was terrible in the Prez race (0+ / 0-)

      Where is this myth of accuracy coming from?  It's similar to the "toplines are all that matter" myth.

      Nat was way, way off in his assessment of the race in terms of percentages.  Yes, he got Obama winning Nevada, for example, but bfd, so did Mark.  Nat's model was all about quatifying chances, and he was at times hugely out to lunch.

      Obama won his tipping point state by 5%.  The only two states he lost from his 2008 wipeout were the two states he basically tied in 2008.

      Any assesment of the race that wasn't predicting an at least 75% chance of an Obama win every single day this year was way out to lunch.

      (Nat's problem in short was his reliance on garbage data... all those lousy pollsters.  Every single pollster, including PPP, had a Republican house effect and he used them.  This lead to absurd conclusions like Obama having a 57% chance of winning, etc.  Garbage in, garbage out.  Nat's model would have been better if he discarded wrerched pollsters like Mason Dixon, etc.)

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:00:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Is Kyrsten Sinema going to win in AZ-09? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY

    She has a small lead now, and I know there are MANY ballots left to be tallied -- I just don't know where they are.  Also, do these type of provisional ballots help the democrats normally?

    27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

    by IndyLiberal on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:49:18 AM PST

  •  Gay Marriage Amendment in Minnesota (9+ / 0-)

    Most mind blowing election night result to me, The gay marriage ban amendment did better in Democratic held MN-01, MN-07 and MN-08 than in MN-06 (Michelle Bachmann's district).

    http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/...

    This is why I would not get your hopes up for Minnesota legalizing gay marriage anytime soon even though Dems control the Legislature.  A lot of outstate Dems who who won close races come from districts that supported the gay marriage ban by large margins.

    "We will never have the elite, smart people on our side." - Rick Santorum

    by Minnesota Mike on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:54:05 AM PST

    •  They already said (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that the issue is backburnered for now.  But don't think that means it's dead.  If dems get other priorities done and build momentum, it will be brought back up.

      Probably a smart strategy.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:09:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't see it coming up (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Minnesota Mike, skibum59, MichaelNY

        Bakk is against it, and his district voted against it, so he won't bring it up. Even if he did, it would fail, as senators like Koenen, Stumpf, Skoe, Saxhaug, Dahle, Scmit, Jensen and others would simply tell the Minneapolis and St. Paul DFLers to go F*** themselves instead of allow such a bill out of committee. As strange as it sounds, a lot of the Republican-held legislative districts are more supportive of this than Democratic-held ones. Even if it has majority support with the overall population, it would likely cost the DFL seats, as strange as that sounds.

        •  "packing" perhaps? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          it seems like an overwhelming amount of the No vote was concentrated in the Twin Cities.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 03:17:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            But it isn't just that. The suburban Republicans in Kline's and Paulsen's district also voted no on the marriage amendment. These are not seats we will be winning, and seats the Republicans won't be losing. So it really is hard to see a path for a true same sex marriage bill even making it as far as a committee hearing.

      •  The interpretation (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, MichaelNY

        by the media of the loss of the legislature was that the amendments hurt the GOP by making them look focused on ideological crusades instead of the crisis.
        The DFL leadership is basically saying we will start to plant the seeds slowly but if we don't want a backlash we must not look like we are falling in the same trap.
        Budget and economy first. Gay marriage when times are more relaxed.
        Also: not sure the voters are there. Some Dems from parts of the state where the amendment won big.

    •  They could just do civil unions for now (7+ / 0-)

      going that route is incredibly popular and also preps people for full marriage down the road.

  •  Theory of Texas (6+ / 0-)

    Here is my theory of Texas.

    2008:

    Whites - 65% of voters, voted 25% for Obama.
    Hispanics - 18% of voters, voted 68% for Obama.
    Blacks - 13% of voters, voted 98% for Obama.
    Other - 4% of voters, voted 60% for Obama.

    That yields 43.63% for Obama.

    2012:

    Whites - 64% of voters, voted 19% for Obama.
    Hispanics - 19% of voters, voted 73% for Obama.
    Blacks - 13% of voters, voted 98% for Obama.
    Other - 4% of voters, voted 60% for Obama.

    That yields 41.17% Obama.

    The problem is, in 2016, Obama won't be on the ballot. That means the 98% from African Americans will probably fall back to more like 90%. Meanwhile, I don't expect the White percentage to change much (apart from whatever is the general national swing). That means that even if Hispanic vote share increases, Dems may not necessarily make progress in TX in 2016.

    •  Do we contest it? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MattTX

      That's the big determining factor. Any sort of attempt to flip the state will be concerned with targeting Hispanics, perhaps more than anything else. The latest Census figures suggest that they are 38.10 percent of the population, so there's quite a bit of room to grow by simply turning more of them out.

      Of course, you also need to make progress with white voters. If there's one possible easy thing about this state, it's that many of its voters are concentrated in less than 20 percent of the counties. The sort of door knocking efforts can be appropriately concentrated in a relatively small number of counties, appropriately scaled. Also, more generally speaking, figure that any sort of competent campaign could probably increase our share of the white vote just by trying. We'd need some luck and some skill to make serious gains, but just by being there, we'd probably see some improvement.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:17:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Turnout was DOWN in TX in 2012 (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, Englishlefty, condorcet, skibum59

        Like you say, contesting it is the big determining factor.

        It's not practical, I don't think to think that TX could genuinely be competitive in 2016. With an all out effort, it could shift a few points, but more than a few points are needed.

        BUT... Turnout was DOWN outright in TX in 2012. I think a lot of that, and some of Obama's lost ground in TX in 2012, is because of the effect of the contested TX Primary in 2008. That was a BIG event. Dem turnout was down by a lot in some of the places where the fever was hottest in 2008 - like Austin and Denton - even though both of those places have had a lot of population growth since 2008.

        There was none of the spirit of 2008, which really came from that brief moment of the TX primary in 2008 - which is the only time TX Democrats have mattered for anything in recent memory. The atmosphere of the TX primary is what could be rekindled if there were ever a serious effort to contest TX, or even just an all out registration campaign in preparation for contesting TX in the future.

        The other question is - what is OFA going to do for the next 4 years, now that their primary mission of re-electing Obama is accomplished? They now have the luxury of being able to think longer term, and have the ability to create a legacy for the future of the democratic party, if they choose to do so.

        What they should do, IMO, is shift their focus from states like Ohio, and they should go BIG into a few states like Texas, Arizona, and Georgia where there are huge numbers of unregistered minorities, and where the demographics are moving in Democrats' favor, and conduct the biggest and most concerted voter registration campaign in history.

        See how many people can be registered in those states. If enough can be registered, at least some of those states could be contested in 2016 (more GA and AZ than TX). If not 2016, the demographics will be such that they could be seriously contested in 2020.

        •  As a rule, I'm skeptical about Texas (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisJohn, lordpet8, bjssp, skibum59

          But this seems like a good plan

        •  It's also a question of who our nominee is. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MattTX

          Someone like Warner or Schweitzer could probably compete fairly easily. Someone like Cuomo, maybe not so much.

          All of your concerns are quite sensible, but all of your suggestions can also be applied to Texas, even if it's less so in Texas than in Georgia. The Democratic base is higher in Georgia, but there are probably more unregistered or unmobilized minorities in the state than there are in Georgia. Looks we are thinking similarly, even if you are more skeptical than me.

          I just can't help but think of the state as filled with untapped potential. I mean, take just Harris County, which had about 1,185,000 voters. The overall population in the country is about 4,181,000, 3,015,000 of which are older than 18. FAIR estimated that about 7.40 of the overall population is illegal. I'll bump that up a little bit to 15 percent, just to be extreme, for Harris County, which means we have about 452,000 adults that can't vote. Subtracting that from 3,015,000 gives us 2,563,000 people. Now assume 5 percent can't or won't ever vote. That chops off about 128,000 more people, leaving us with 2,435,000 potential voters.

          Assuming my numbers are not horribly off, that leaves us with turnout of 48.66 percent. Let's bump up turnout to 55 percent and give our candidate 55 percent of the county's vote. That brings the total voter pool to about 1,339,000 and gives our candidate about 736,000 votes, compared to Obama's 585,000 or so. That's an extra 151,000 votes, just from this one county. Added to his state total, this would be about 3,445,000 votes, up from about 3,294,000, out of a new total of about 8,113,000 votes, up from about 7,962,000.  That's 42,46 percent, a nice increase considering we're talking about just one county under what I think are conservative assumptions.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:12:44 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, that's what OFA should be doing (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, bumiputera, Englishlefty

            There are about 2 million registered voters in Harris County. By your numbers, which seem very plausible to me, that means there are more than 500,000 eligible unregistered voters just in Harris County.

            And only ~1.1 million of the registered voters actually voted.

            There is indeed so much untapped potential.

            And the thing is, it's the same exact thing in Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio.

            And plenty more in El Paso, McAllen, and even in smaller cities like Lubbock.

            •  And that's why (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Englishlefty

              I focus on this so much. You can safely ignore much of the state (as rough as that sounds, it's true) and work like a dog on a relatively small number of very vote-rich counties.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:31:51 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  White Voters (6+ / 0-)

        You're right, getting 20% of the vote with White voters just won't do. With that number, it could be until 2040 rather than 2030 that TX is genuinely competitive.

        IMO, Democrats should make absolutely no effort (exaggerating only slightly) to appeal to rural whites in TX. It is not possible. Instead, Dems should focus like a laser on appealing to urban whites in DFW, Austin, and Houston who live in the 21st century, and try and bump those White percentages up just ever so slightly with those voters.

    •  Looking at a county by county map of the results (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, MattTX

      it's almost like two states:  North Texas and South Texas.

    •  Well, the other big question is (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MattTX, KingTag, condorcet

      how much of the white vote does a non-Obama presidential candidate get? I think your numbers look right, but it's pretty surprising to me that we could go below 20% in the state. As far as I know, every recent statewide Dem candidate for president or senate or gov got in the 25-30% range. Even Sadler must have been in or close to that range, given that he overperformed Obama overall (!) and underperformed him among hispanics.

      So was that still based on residual rural white support? Or was Obama's underperformance more a problem in the suburbs? And what would a candidate like Hillary get? (She would do great among Hispanics, and could claim back a decent amount of white support, I would think - at least back up to that 25% base.)

      •  It's not because Obama is black (4+ / 0-)

        Comparing the county results, the difference between Sadler and Obama in counties with lots of white voters is generally not much more than 1% at most.

        Likewise, if you go back and compare past elections where Dems of different races have run for different offices, you will see very little difference between them.

        In 2008, Obama and Noriega did basically the same almost everywhere.

        In 2010, Bill White did basically the same as Obama and Noriega almost everywhere.

        In 2002, Kirk and Sanchez did basically the same almost everywhere.

        Voting in TX is partisan and straight ticket. Very few people ever vote a split ticket. Partisanship rules, above all - some of that is because it is so expensive to campaign and so voters don't really know anything about individual candidates, so they just vote based on party.

        There is just generic Democratic performance, and individual candidates can only depart a very small amount from that, either under or above.

    •  I'm not so sure black voters will shift that much (5+ / 0-)

      not all the way back to Bush numbers.  I could see some drop off of course, but if Obama is out there heavily campaigning for his successor, I could see it splitting the difference.

      I don't think it's just Obama that has shifted African-Americans so far towards the Democratic Party.  I think the same trends that have hurt the Republican Party with other minorities would have done that to an extent with black voters even without Obama.

      If Republicans keep nominating the kinds of candidates they do, I could see black support for Democrats staying pretty close to 95%.

      •  2010 Exit polls (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, askew

        African Americans voted 91-9 Dem in 2010. I think that's about what we can expect without Obama directly on the ticket, even if he supports other Dems, as he did in 2010.

      •  It would've been interesting to see Mike Williams (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MattTX, bumiputera, Englishlefty

        compete as the Republican nominee. It would have been even more interesting to see him compete against a Hispanic Democrat.

        It would have also been interesting to see Roger Williams, which was the first name I typed, compete this year--not the former Secretary of State, of course, but the English theologian. I mean, he's been dead for a few hundred years, but that shouldn't stop him.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:16:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Via FB. (16+ / 0-)

    "Asian Voters Send a Message to Republicans":

    But the alienation of Hispanics, many of whom are culturally conservative, from the Republican Party is both bigger and smaller than the issue of immigration.

    For a little perspective, consider the votes of another minority -- Asians. Romney won among all voters making more than $100,000 a year by a margin of 54-44. Asian-Americans happen to be the highest-earning group in the U.S., out-earning whites, and they generally place enormous emphasis on family. A perfect fit for Republicans, no?

    No. Asians voted for Obama by 73-26; they were more Democratic than Hispanics.

    And they link to this article, "Why Republicans Can't Harness Indian-American Patel Power", on reason.com.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:37:18 AM PST

    •  Asians are pro family (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      But for the most part they have a different view from republicans as to what 'pro family' means.  They seem to have a more 'live and let live' attitude without any real interest in the extreme social stances of the current republican party.  I'm guessing they're also repulsed by the extreme economic policies of the right.

    •  You (4+ / 0-)

      know the next time Stephen Harper or his immigration minister Jason Kenney fly into D.C., Boehner and McConnell should sideline one of them for a couple of hours and talk about how the Tories made inroads with Asians and other immigrant groups in Canada.

      But of course hopefully the GOP continues to ignore the diversification of the electorate. Actually I'm hoping Jan Brewer and other Republican governors decide to wage cultural apartheid in their states like what the PQ is doing in Quebec.

      I would love to hear someone like Brewer say, "We must seal the borders immediately because immigration is threatening the survival of the English language."

      And of course the GOP base would go ballistic at a picture like this (notice the audience):

      Mitt Romney: Lacking judgement

      by ehstronghold on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:08:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Immigration (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Englishlefty, Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

      Immigration is an issue that directly affects the Asian American community essentially as much as the Hispanic community.

      Obama's Dreamers executive order had the same sort of affect as among Hispanics.

    •  Probably gonna be 8 Asian-Americans in Congress (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, Englishlefty, askew, MichaelNY

      Four of Japanese ancestry, three of Chinese, and most likely one of Indian if Bera wins.

      All are Democrats.

      That has to be what's most distressing for Republicans, it's not that they're specifically losing Black voters, or Latinos, it's that they're losing in landslides everybody who isn't white.  And that is why every four years the math gets more difficult for them as white voters decrease by 2% of the electorate.

      Latino growth gets the most attention, but Asian-Americans are also increasing quite rapidly.

      •  Still, let's not kid ourselves. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fearlessfred14, Skaje, MichaelNY

        The country got more diverse between 2008 and 2012, and Obama did worse.  Demographics are important, but we shouldn't expect a future of monotonic improvement.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:13:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Distribution of nonwhites is key, as is turnout. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          If California keeps growing and growing and getting more diverse, that helps us lock it up even more in the Electoral College, but it doesn't do much else besides give us a cushion in the popular vote. You could probably say the same for New York, although it's not really growing that quickly.

          I'd also say that while the country is getting more diverse, it's not even close to being reflected in the turnout figures, at least not in states that could alter the Electoral College process considerably.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:22:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yup (4+ / 0-)

          like I said about Texas, if Democrats keep falling lower and lower with the white vote, it will balance out minorities being more numerous (and even being more Democratic).

          That may just be the way this country is heading.  The next Republican president might get 65% of the white vote, even breaking Reagan's 1984 record.

          •  The thing for me is. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, MichaelNY

            People keep sort of asserting that in this election or in that election Republicans have or will have "bottomed out" with white voters, but I don't know what the evidence is there.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:27:17 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I suspect that only might be true (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              in states that are always contested, although it's not at all clear if it's even true there.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:36:01 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Do they say that about the nation as a whole? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Because if so, they're right. Obama got 39 or 40% of the white vote - same as Dukakis, 5 points better than Mondale.

              And that's despite the massive movement to the GOP among southern whites.

            •  I understand (0+ / 0-)

              For awhile I too thought we had perhaps gone as low as we possibly could with white voters, considering historical numbers (I laughed at that pundit talking about Obama hitting 37% of the white vote, down at almost Mondale numbers), but I see now that no, we really haven't.

              If in the future whites are down to like 60% of the electorate, and Democrats win the minority vote in a landslide, Republicans will indeed somehow figure out how to hit 70% with white voters and win the election.  Maybe their party will change, maybe ours will change, but competitive elections will continue to happen regardless of how diverse America becomes.  It gives us an advantage at the moment because Republicans haven't quite figured out how to do that yet without pushing minorities even further towards us, but we're not simply going to keep winning the presidency forever even if the GOP keeps alienating minorities.

              •  I don't think it's guaranteed, either, (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Englishlefty, MichaelNY

                that "Republicans will indeed somehow figure out how to hit 70% with white voters and win the election".  But it's not to be dismissed.  

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 01:03:12 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  And in particular. (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingTag, skibum59, MichaelNY

                As much as Tuesday was a good election night for Dems, I think it's nuts to look at a 2.5-point popular vote win and 4.6-point "tipping point" state win by an incumbent President with decent approval ratings and say "yep, no way Republicans can do 3-5 points better than Mitt Romney did running against an incumbent Barack Obama".

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 01:07:07 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  Although Republicans do have (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Two Indian-American governors.

        •  Elected by white-majority southern states (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          They just happened to win a primary, and more despite their race than because of it. Doesn't prove anything.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:53:45 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Isn't the proper comparison (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

      Asians making more than $100,000 a year compared to whites who make the same?

      Still, that overall number is something.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:34:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're completely right. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Apples to apples is always the best.  It'd be trivial to come up with numbers where white voters were poorer than Asian voters, Asian voters were more liberal than white voters, but rich Asian voters were more conservative than rich white voters.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:49:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Relating to MattTX's comment upthread, (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MattTX, jj32, bjssp, MichaelNY

    What is OFA's mission around the country now that their primary goal of getting the President re-elected has been accomplished?

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

    by WisJohn on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:41:34 AM PST

    •  Register Obama Coalition voters in South/Southwest (5+ / 0-)

      OFA's focus should be on long term party building, not on short term organizing and races. Of course, right before the 2014 and 2016 elections they should help out in competitive races, but that should not be the overall focus.

      The primary way to help with party building is voter registration, I think. Go anywhere that is not already safely Democratic where there are large numbers of unregistered minority and young voters and register them.

      That means focusing on the south and the southwest, especially. FL, NV, CO, VA, NC - sure. You want to keep pushing there. But there have already been large voter registration drives there, so much of the low hanging fruit has already been plucked.

      Move on to red states - GA, TX, AZ are the biggies (but even SC, MS, LA) - and try to accelerate the rate at which they are trending purple. The low hanging fruit has not been plucked in those states.

      •  Given how cheap some of the states like MS (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        are, you have to wonder if some Democrats might decide to focus on them in 2016. I mean, it can't be cheap, but given that we are already polling in the low forties or close to it in some of these states while being at rock bottom with white voters, there might be no place to go but up.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:25:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  FL-18 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits

    Can I just say I'm a little bit disappointed how close this race has been.
    West is going down with better numbers than Grayson had in 2010 ... sigh.

    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

    by lordpet8 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:47:33 AM PST

    •  He's not in as hostile of a district (8+ / 0-)

      and didn't run a "Muslim Murphy" ad.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

      by fearlessfred14 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:57:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not entirely a valid comparison (6+ / 0-)

      2010 was more of a wave year for Republicans than 2012 for Democrats, and Grayson's old district was friendlier to Republicans than the current FL-18 is for Democrats.

      Assuming the Murphy lead holds up, this is perhaps comparable to the Missouri and Indiana Senate races: a race that the Democrat won largely because his GOP opponent couldn't shut his mouth or keep his foot out of it.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:58:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It just has me concerned (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, WisJohn, MichaelNY

        that Murphy maybe in a fight in 2014 if the R's nominate non-bombthrower candidate.

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:05:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Largely won? No. Entirely won? Yes (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, Englishlefty, MichaelNY

        Remember, this was mostly Tom Rooney's district and there is pretty much zero chance we would have beaten him there.  Republicans nominating West and Rivera for the districts they did almost certainly handed them to us.

        Also, West didn't have to deal with the top of the ticket suffering a long expected blowout causing friendly turnout to plummet.

        And further more, Grayson's old district was way more Republican than West's was Democratic.  John Kerry only got 45% there while George Bush carried West's new one.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:07:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Our Appalachia? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Based on the NYTimes' annoyingly hard to read trend map, the largest regions that actually trended towards Obama in an absolute sense in this election were:

    1) Heavily black counties in the south
    2) Heavily hispanic counties in Texas
    3) Northern New York state, and similar areas in northern New England

    So, anyone care to explain that last one? Heavily white, but trending hard in our direction...

    •  Pushed further away by teabagger Republicanism (5+ / 0-)

      Relatively moderate Republican-leaning indys in a region with a tradition of moderate Republicanism.

      •  Honestly I have no idea (4+ / 0-)

        I grew up in Washington County (north of Albany but not yet in the Adirondack park) and the trend shocks me.  There isn't huge population growth north in upstate NY, but what there is comes from Albany and Saratoga.

        I think maybe it's the reverse of Western PA.  A lot of the old rural farmers who were dependent on the land and also govt help via the farm bills have died.  farming isn't what it once was and now the economies lean towards other industries.  And the kids growing up their don't have moderates like Gerry Solomon to skew them to the GOP side any more.

        Those are all suppositions that seem logical but that can't really be proven.  My honest got feel of what the answer is?  SUNY schools.  SUNY schools litter upstate NY and while most serve a lot of locals, they draw hugely from NYC and the more liberal parts of Long Island and the Westchester/Rockland County areas.  

        So those students may vote at their college address, giving gains that way.  Or say maybe 5 out of every 100 students gets a job in the same place as their SUNY school; thats essentially moving NYC Dems to upstate GOP areas.

        I honestly think this is probably the biggest reason, and probably overlooked in analysis.  SUNY schools are growing enrollments and moving New yorkers all around the state.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:07:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Funny that so many people were predicting (8+ / 0-)

        Romney would overperform in New England, because of his profile.  Instead, the former governor of Massachusetts hits record numbers in...Appalachia.

        Looking at the map, it's like they just ran Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum.

        •  Which was the whole point (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          People thought Romney so much the more electable candidate, and it made no sense.  Huck/Newt/Rick/Romney/Perry were all equally (un)popular in CO/VA/WI/FL/NV.

          I mean maybe you argue Newt/Perry are "Southern" and could have "maybe" grabbed FL and VA, but still they lose.  Obama wins OH by more against Perry/Newt than he did against Romney I think.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:22:30 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Had it been the pre-1994 Republican party (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          he might have done well there.  But since Gingrich, New England and the middle atllantic have moved further and further from the Republican party in presidential elections.

  •  Speaking of exit polls. (7+ / 0-)

    I know some are suspicious of them, but they're just too much fun, let me take a look.  I do not vouch for the statistical or political significance of the below, but:

    1. My fellow white men backed Mitt Romney 62/35.  I think jncca's hypothetical House majority of "250 straight white male Protestant progressives" might not be the likeliest thing ever.

    2. Obama crushed among voters making less than $100,000 a year by 10 points, 54/44.  Typical Democrat, out of touch with working-class people!  Meanwhile Mitt, as my previous post's quote said, reversed those numbers among "the 28%" making more than $100,000.

    3. That's nothing compared to Shelley Berkley, who won the under-$100,000 crowd by 6 points, but lost the over-$100,000 crowd by some 24 points!

    4. I wasn't sure if it would hold up, but there might be good reason to think that Virginia's Democratic trend really does have something to do with high-income types, as Obama basically matched his national numbers among under-$100,000 people (winning them by 9 points), but only lost over-$100,000 people by 4 points.

    5. Similarly, as far as education goes, Obama's margins nationally among different groups was:

    High School Graduates: +3.
    Some College: +1.
    College Graduate: -4.
    Postgraduate: +13.

    In Virginia, it was:

    High School Graduates: -1.
    Some College: -4.
    College Graduate: -2.
    Postgraduate: +15.

    Not the biggest differences, but Obama lost every group in Virginia except postgraduates--which was 24% of the Virginia sample compared to 18% of the national sample.

    6. In Ohio, those same numbers were:

    No High School: +36.
    High School Graduates: +5.
    Some College: +5.
    College Graduate: -8.
    Postgraduate: +2.

    Fascinatingly different.  If only I could be confident it meant anything.

    7. Similarly, in Ohio, Obama had the usual numbers (+9) among the under-$100,000 crowd, but lost the over-$100,000 crowd by 19 points--but that was only 21% of the sample here.  Obama also lost white men by the usual 26 points.  In Virginia it was 30 points.  

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:05:05 PM PST

    •  4. remember according to Andrew Gelman (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      the reason in rich states that Democrats tend to do much better is that there is less polarization by income among top earners, though wealthier voters do still tend towards Republicans.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:40:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bad news (6+ / 0-)

    for those of us who push back against "ethnic minorities vs. the LGBT" narratives:

    Prince George's County narrowly opposed the gay marriage thing.  It actually only carried Frederick County, Baltimore County, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore City, Howard County, and (of course) Montgomery County.  Baltimore City was nevertheless an outlier compared to the Presidential results (i.e., the Presidential resuls were stronger), as were Charles County and Somerset County.

    Carroll County and Queen Anne's County are the big outliers in the other direction, as Carroll County, for example, gave 43% to gay marriage, but just 33% to Obama.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:22:11 PM PST

    •  I'm actually fine with the results (13+ / 0-)

      Nobody should be expecting African-Americans to deliver huge majorities for same-sex marriage.  The only reason people seem to expect that is because they are overwhelmingly Democrats.

      Still, I will definitely take them being just about 50-50 on the issue, which represents a huge improvement over the last decade.

      I'll say what I've said before on this as well: the only reason this divide gets played up so much is that white Democrats are strongly behind same-sex marriage, but forget that there's not a significant difference between white voters overall and black voters on marriage equality.  If white Democrats want to blame a group of people for holding up marriage equality, they need only look at white Republicans who overwhelmingly oppose it.

      •  You're right. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, WisJohn, MichaelNY

        I did a precinct-level thing with Mecklenburg County, looking at Obama's 2008 vote share, the Amendment 1 vote, and the racial demographics.  If you assume 100% turnout and that all minorities backed Obama (yes, yes) you can split the population into McCain voters, African-American voters, Hispanic voters, and white Democrats.  

        And the regression (I used an R thing to have only positive coefficients) was that white Dems were uniformly opposed to Amendment 1 (the coefficient might have actually been 0!), minorities were 50/50, and McCain voters were like 70% for Amendment 1.  

        The result, iirc, was that some conservative areas opposed Amendment 1, but some minority-heavy areas supported it--but the margins for Amendment 1, so the equation said, were basically all from McCain voters.  (For example, a hypothetical all-white precinct that went 60/40 for McCain would only give 42% of the vote to Amendment 1, with a slim minority of McCain voters joining the white Democrats to defeat the Amendment.)

        I haven't checked, but I wouldn't be surprised if this held in general.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:57:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  THIS (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, askew, MichaelNY

        I'm sick and tired of white liberals acting as though opposition to same sex marriage is all the fault of minorities when whites are on average no better. Yes, blacks support marriage equality at a lower rate than they support Democrats, but at no lower a rate than whites. It really speaks to white privilege that we (white liberals) single out an entire race for not being quite on line with us on one issue because they tend to support the same candidates in general elections as us. The biggest impediment to marriage equality is the same as what has been the biggest impediment to every other civil rights advance: bigoted white conservatives. Until we internalize this fact, we won't be able to have a productive conversation on the issue.

        •  And for the record, I wasn't singling out Xeno (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, MichaelNY

          and I appreciated his analysis of the North Carolina ballot measure. But I think there's a very widespread and systemic problem among white liberals that we feel minorities have an obligation to be with us on everything and single them out when they're not, but more or less write off opposition from within our own race as normal.

    •  So the Comically Dedicated Racists (5+ / 0-)

      Aren't Comically Dedicated Homophobes?

      Good to know.

  •  How David Gill would have won (6+ / 0-)

    Gill lost by just 0.4% and while the Dem gerrymander was pretty damn effective everywhere else, I made some very simple changes that would have pushed Gill over the top:
    Photobucket

    The rural areas in pink were removed and the green areas in Bloomington and Springfield were added.  The district looks pretty much just as clean, though 4 more counties were split, but it's worth it because it boosts Obama's 2008 percentage by a full point up to 55.4%.  So Gill should have definitely won narrowly instead of lost narrowly.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:35:05 PM PST

    •  perhaps the legislature could tweak the map (0+ / 0-)

      IDK what the rules are for mid-decade redistricting.  Or if there are established rules at all.  Anyway, if you're doing mid-decade, do you use the original census numbers from the beginning of the decade, or can you use new estimates?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:42:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Is it just me (7+ / 0-)

    or was watching Rove throw his temper tantrum and then the spectacle of Megan Kelly marching over to Fox's calling desk all the way across the studio the best part of the night?  

  •  Ted Nugent's Reaction to Obama's Reelection (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades

    What a douche.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:45:34 PM PST

  •  Who could have predicted that (7+ / 0-)

    Karl Rove would be a sore loser?

    Loved the clip on election night where Megyn Kelly says to him: "Is this just math you tell yourself as a Republican so you can feel better?"

    •  What a set of fucking balls Rove has. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, askew, MichaelNY

      He accuses Obama and the Democrats of suppressing the vote?  I wonder what all of those anti-gay marriage amendments in 2004 were.

      Also, WHAT ABOUT THE ACTUAL FUCKING VOTER SUPPRESSION?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:58:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Article about why I-4 corridor is now Democratic (6+ / 0-)

    Below is part of it.

    http://firstread.nbcnews.com/...

    It’s been a cliché in politics for the past decade to say that the I-4 Corridor in Florida is a swing area.

    “Watch independents in the I-4,” has been a standard refrain from pundits as well as Democrats and Republicans alike, referring to voters along the interstate highway that cuts a swath West to East, from Tampa to North of Orlando.

    But it looks like that just does not hold true anymore. Despite what was a tougher year than 2008 for President Obama, he once again ran up the score in the I-4.

    The I-4 has changed quite a bit in 20 years. In fact, based on a First Read analysis of the six counties the highway passes through – Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole, and Volusia – the I-4 Corridor has gone from about a 100,000-vote advantage for Republicans to a 100,000-vote advantage for Democrats.

    And it’s all about demographics. In the three counties that have become more Democratic, non-white populations have doubled in a decade.

    The place most responsible for the shift is Orange County, which encompasses Orlando. Republicans had a 26,000-vote advantage in the 1992 presidential race and 1,000 in 1996. But Democrats won it by 6,000 in 2000, 1,000 in 2004, and 85,000 and 84,000, respectively, in 2008 and 2012.

    What's more, it's shifted even in governor’s races. In 1994 when Democrat Lawton Chiles defeated Jeb Bush, Orange went for Bush by 7,000 votes. In 1998, it was a 38,000-vote GOP advantage. It was 20,000 in 2002 and 2006, but, in 2010, Democrat Sink won it by 30,000.

    Hillsborough and Osceola have also moved Democratic. Polk has remained Republican, while Volusia is the only county to trend Republican.

    What explains this? Orange is now 55 percent non-white, including 28 percent Hispanic, 22 percent black and 5 percent Asian -- all groups that went overwhelmingly for Obama. In fact, according to the U.S. Census, as of 2010, the Hispanic, black and Asian populations have nearly doubled since a decade ago. There were 242,000 more Latinos (140,000), African Americans (75,000), and Asians (27,000) from 2000. At the same time, there were only 114,000 more whites - a net change of 128,000 non-whites.

  •  Did you guys know that some rich idiot (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits

    was spending a million bucks of his own money to run against Steve Cohen in 2012?  And this same guy lost the TN-08 Republican primary last time, after more big spending (see the previous link)?

    And Cohen got 3/4 of the vote, exactly the same as he did last time.

    I actually appreciate this idiot, George Flinn, since it's such a good test case.  You rarely see anyone spending a lot of money in a safe seat.  Although there's that Bill Bloomfield guy.  And it seems like Cohen bothered going up on the air against Flinn.  I wish he hadn't!  That'd be a better "found experiment".

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 01:37:26 PM PST

  •  Election Post-Mortem: Schadenfreude edition (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gigantomachyusa, KingofSpades

    I pretty much spent my whole day yesterday observing the Right wing freakout over Obama winning, here were some gems.

    Crazy Youtube lady who blames the Libertarians for not sharing her facebook posts [NSFW Language]: http://www.youtube.com/...

    BONUS CRAZY: Same lady, but with an Orchestra [NSFW language, and seems to have gone down this morning due to copyright takedown request, but may come back soon]: http://soundcloud.com/...

    Obviously racist XM Radio Host Anthony Cumia [NSWF youtube image and language]:

    Sad White People Mourn Mitt's Loss Photo Blog: http://whitepeoplemourningromney.tumblr.com/

    Then there is pretty much every Free Republic Post.  Have a schadenfreude full day!

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

    by Daman09 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 01:46:24 PM PST

  •  Another first (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rserven, MichaelNY

    NH elected its first transgender state rep - but I don't think that's the first trans state legislator anywhere in the country, right?

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 03:53:09 PM PST

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