1:25 AM PT (Steve Singiser): As we kick off (at 4:20 AM ET/1:20 AM PT) thread #13, here is a quick recap of where we stand:
- In the Senate, there is really just one race outstanding: Montana, where incumbent Democrat Jon Tester clings to a 49-45 lead over Republican Denny Rehberg. A Tester win would give the Democrats a 55-45 majority, as it appears that Republicans have held Nevada, and Democrats (improbably) have held onto North Dakota. That would be a net gain of the Democrats of 2 seats.
- In the gubernatorial races, we have what appears to be a basic wash. Only one state shifted, as the GOP picked up North Carolina. Democrats held onto New Hampshire and Missouri, and have narrow leads still in their defense of Washington and Montana.
- The House is more complicated. While we know that Democrats will not claim a majority, they do appear on track to reduce the GOP edge. How much remains to be seen, because there are so many close races still undecided (my favorite: the 13-vote spread separating incumbent GOPer Brian Bilbray and Democrat Scott Peters in CA-52). Perhaps the most satisfying win, if it holds: Allen West appears to have gone down in FL-18, as Democrat Patrick Murphy leads by over 2400 votes.
- Often underreported: it also looks like the Democrats cleaned house in the state legislatures. They gained several chambers, and held onto some very tenuous holds across the country. All in all, especially when you factor in that whole presidential re-election thing, a much better night to be a Democrat than a Republican.
1:29 AM PT (Steve Singiser): In Arizona, Ann Kirkpatrick has moved out to a three-point lead in AZ-01. However, many of you in the comments have noted an excellent point: it appears that the vote totals in the Grand Canyon State are way too small, leading to the question as to whether there are provisionals or VBM numbers that aren't in the tally yet. That is something to keep in mind over the next 24-48 hours, especially in AZ-02, where Democratic incumbent Rep. Ron Barber appears to trail Republican Martha McSally by just a few hundred votes.
1:34 AM PT (Steve Singiser): Wow. You just gotta love an election night. In CA-52, with 91 percent in, incumbent GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray leads by 13 votes. Meanwhile, in CA-33, veteran Democrat Henry Waxman has now moved ahead of GOPer-turned-Indie Bill Bloomfield by a landslide of...75 votes. Still tons of votes to be counted in both. For the uninitiated, between provisionals and absentees, the vote count in Cali can last a week or more. And (good news!) it is usually to the benefit of Democrats.
1:39 AM PT (Steve Singiser): Permit me a total tangent here: but did anyone notice how badly Todd Akin got smoked tonight? After many polls hinted at a fairly close race, Claire McCaskill won 55-39. Just a total bludgeoning, especially when you consider that President Obama lost the 2008 tossup Show-Me State by 10 points.
1:42 AM PT (Steve Singiser): The desert-based CA-36 is now up to 46% in, and Raul Ruiz has extended his lead over Mary Bono Mack. The lead is now 1.0 percent, or 1330 votes. As a SoCal native, I can attest that Bono Mack has been flooding the zone with brutally negative ads, including a cartoonish one where Ruiz is decried as "anti-Thanksgiving" about four times in the ad. Thus far, not helping her too much.
1:44 AM PT (Steve Singiser): One late disappointment: with 98 percent in, it is looking exceedingly likely that Michele Bachmann hangs on in MN-06. Her lead is the biggest it has been all night: 3647 votes.
1:49 AM PT (Steve Singiser): Wow. An incumbent has gone down. In CA-15, the call has been made--Eric Swallwell has defeated longtime Rep. Pete Stark in a Democrat-on-Democrat showdown. Swalwell wins 53-47 over the bombastic veteran Stark, who shot several holes in his feet during the campaign.
1:52 AM PT (Steve Singiser): Montana will apparently keep us up all night, but there is now legitimate separation between the two outstanding races there. In the Senate, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester continues to lead GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg by four points (49-45). But the lead for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Steve Bullock has diminished: he now leads former GOP Rep. Rick Hill by only a 49-47 margin, or about 7400 votes.
2:08 AM PT (Steve Singiser): AP calls MN-06 for Michele Bachmann, as the Republican held onto a 51-49 advantage over Democrat Jim Graves.
2:11 AM PT (Steve Singiser): One of the more hyped GOP recruits, meanwhile, has also gone down to defeat. Veteran Rep. Jerry McNerney has been declared the winner over young Republican Ricky Gill, as the Democrat scored a 54-46 win.
2:13 AM PT (Steve Singiser): It hasn't been called yet, but Democrats have to feel very confident about their chances in CA-26. With 93 percent reporting, Democrat Julia Brownley is up by 5810 votes over Republican Tony Strickland.
2:13 AM PT (Steve Singiser): SHBERMAN ALERT!! AP has called CA-30 for Brad Sherman. There are still a ton of precincts outstanding, but Sherman leads Howard Berman by a 60-40 margin.
2:15 AM PT (Steve Singiser): Meanwhile, in CA-33, veteran Democratic Rep. Henry Waxman has pulled a bit of daylight between himself and Bill Bloomfield. Waxman is now up 52-48.
2:29 AM PT (Steve Singiser): With Montana, Arizona, and California slowing to a crawl, it looks like this is as good a time as any to call it a night here at Daily Kos Elections. We are beyond grateful to you all for sharing the night with us, and be sure to come back in the coming days, as we continue to put a shiny bow on this electoral gift. Thanks for reading, and we'll see you
tomorrow later today!
5:55 AM PT (jeffmd): Good morning from the other side!
An update on the uncalled stuff:
- CA-03 for incumbent Dem John Garamendi, who currently has a 54-46 lead over Kim Dolbow Vann
- CA-08 for Republican Paul Cook, who beats out Republican Gregg Imus.
- CA-10 for Republican Jeff Denham, who currently has a 54-46 edge over Dem Jose Hernandez.
- CA-16 for Jim Costa; 54-46 is a popular margin this morning.
- CA-31 for Gary Miller, who retains his seat against fellow Republican Bob Dutton.
- CA-35 is a shocker, where Dem St. Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod has defeated incumbent Dem Joe Baca!
- CA-41 for Dem Mark Takano in Riverside, who becomes the first LGBT Asian-American elected to Congress.
- CA-44 for Janice Hahn, who finally rids the Dem caucus of fellow incumbent Laura Richardson.
- CA-47 for Dem Alan Lowenthal, who beats out Republican Gary DeLong.
- In CA Propositions, Gov. Jerry Brown's tax plan is expected to pass (Prop 30), while the ban on corporate and labor (but mostly just labor) contributions, Prop 32, is expected to fail.
- Michigan's Emergency Manager Proposal (Prop 1) fails.
- Montana's ban on corporate campaign contributions (I-166) is expected to pass.
Obviously, we'll continue to update you as the situation progresses!
6:06 AM PT (jeffmd): And just a few more updates -- the AP is also calling for Dem Henry Waxman in CA-33, who survives a somewhat-unexpected close encounter with GOPer-turned-Indie Bill Bloomfield, who outspent Waxman by several million.
Additionally, at the technically non-partisan mayoral level, Dem Bob Filner has a 3-point lead in San Diego over Republican Carl DeMaio with 100% reporting (but no call).
In Honolulu, in a race driven by the construction of a transit line, pro-rail former Acting Mayor Kirk Caldwell defeats anti-rail former Gov. Ben Cayetano (both are Democrats).