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Cheat Sheets: Senate | Gov | House | Ballot Measures

Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 11:54 PM PT: Great news: The MN ballot measures to ban same-sex marriage and to require voter ID have both officially failed.

12:03 AM PT: So here's where things stand in remaining House races outside of AZ & CA:

FL-18: Dem Patrick Murphy leads GOP Rep. Allen West 50.4 to 49.6 with 99% counted. Murphy has declared victory. It seems that right now, the margin is outside the automatic recount threshold.

MI-01: The lead keeps seesawing in this very close race. With 95% reporting, GOP Rep. Dan Benishek is up 48 to 47.5 over Dem Gary McDowell.

MN-06: With 86% reporting, GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann has moved back out into the lead with a 50.3-49.7 edge over Dem Jim Graves.

NC-07: 100% is reporting but there's still no call, with Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre clinging to a 50.1-49.9 lead over GOPer David Rouzer.

12:04 AM PT: MT-AL has been called for Republican Steve Daines, who holds GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg's open seat.

12:06 AM PT: In CA-24, Dem Rep. Lois Capps holds off Republican former LG Abel Maldonado.

12:09 AM PT: In IL-13, even though the race has been called for Republican Rodney Davis (47-45.6), Democrat David Gill is refusing to concede, claiming the race is "too close to call" and saying (via email):

From what we now know from our discussions with county clerks’ offices, there are a significant number of ballots still outstanding in Macon County.  We believe we need to keep counting ballots.

12:30 AM PT (Steve Singiser): A couple of late movers, and one is a shocker. After leading most of the evening, Republican Jonathan Paton is now down by about 500 votes to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick in the sprawling AZ-01. The other late mover is in California, where Democrat Julia Brownley has halved the lead of Republican Tony Strickland in CA-26. Strickland still leads, but the margin is just 875 votes with 65% reporting.

12:35 AM PT (Steve Singiser): For the night-owls, here is where we stand. It now appears likely that Democrats will gain Senate seats tonight. The 54th seat appears to be locked down, as 100 percent of precincts are reporting in North Dakota, and Democrat Heidi Heitkamp has a lead of 3000 votes, or 1.0 percent. One did slip away, as AP did call NV-Sen for Republican incumbent Dean Heller. But Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is holding steady in Montana, leading 49-44 with more than half of the vote in.

12:38 AM PT (Steve Singiser): Meanwhile, there are only two uncalled gubernatorial races. In Montana, Steve Bullock continues to hang onto the mansion for the Democrats, with a 50-46 lead with about half the vote in. Further west, Democrat Jay Inslee continues to lead over Rob McKenna (51-49) in Washington.

12:41 AM PT (Steve Singiser): One quick eye-popper, and credit your pals at Daily Kos Elections for being the only ones on the case. In CA-33 (Westside Los Angeles), three-decade incumbent Democrat Henry Waxman is actually trailing (51-49) to GOPer-turned-Independent Bill Bloomfield. Bloomfield spent millions on the bid, and forced Waxman into a late defensive posture. It is not immediately clear if Waxman's former district has chimed in yet (it does not appear to have done so), so he could still pull it out. unreal result, if it holds up.

12:45 AM PT (Steve Singiser): After much talk about her demise, fringe GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann is still clinging to her deep-red district in MN-06. Her lead over Democrat Jim Graves is now 2700 votes, or 0.8 percent.

12:46 AM PT (Steve Singiser): Good news, though, a bit further west: Democrats are on the cusp of a pickup in northern California. With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Democrat Ami Bera is leading Republican veteran Rep. Dan Lungren by 827 votes.

12:48 AM PT (Steve Singiser): Democrats are also on the charge in two other California districts. Raul Ruiz has now pulled ahead of Mary Bono Mack in CA-36 (still only 36 percent in, though). Meanwhile, in San Diego, Republican Rep. Brian Bilbray's lead has eroded down to just 502 votes, with 82 percent reporting.

12:57 AM PT (Steve Singiser): We have three uncalled races in Arizona, and if you had told me at the start of the day that AZ-02 would be the most likely to go to the GOP, I'd have scoffed. But with over 90 percent reporting in all three, the Democrats have one (AZ-09: Krysten Sinema) locked down (up two, with 100 percent in). Another (AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick) finally has the Democrats staked to a small lead. It is incumbent Ron Barber in the deepest trouble, in a major upset. He trails Republican Martha McSally by 386 votes, at last check.

1:00 AM PT (Steve Singiser): One of the few eastern races left uncalled is looking like a Republican hold, though some precincts remain uncounted. In Michigan's UP, Republican freshman Dan Benishek leads Democratic challenger Gary McDowell by 1700 votes with 98 percent reporting.

1:01 AM PT (Steve Singiser): We now have 100 percent reporting in CA-07, and this one will almost certainly go uncalled for a while. Democrat Ami Bera leads Republican Rep. Dan Lungren, but by just 184 votes.

1:14 AM PT (Steve Singiser): Whoa. Big movement, and it is big news for the Democrats. With 81 percent reporting, Julia Brownley has moved out to a three-point lead over Tony Strickland in CA-26. Brownley had trailed in early returns. Democrat Raul Ruiz has also edged ahead in CA-36 over Republican Mary Bono Mack. And...check. This. Out. In CA-52, GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray's lead over Democrat Scott Peters is down to...13 votes. Out of 194,000 cast.

1:18 AM PT (Steve Singiser): You guys are still around, I see. I love that about you! Seriously, let's carry the party over to lucky thread #13....

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