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In this diary I will list the races and the offices that I think will be in Democratic hands after today's elections in the following levels:

- President and Vicepresident (by state)
- Senate
- Governors
- US House
- Statewide elected offices
- State Legislature chambers

All the numbers are totals except for the statewide offices where are counted only the offices in play in 2012. The numbers of gains are refered to all the cycle 2011-2012 (until now we have a tie in all the levels except in the state legislatures where we have a -1).

For some races I included a numerical prediction of the difference between the Democratic and the Republican candidate, that comes from the polling data.

All the numbers are Rasmussen free.

Still I have not enough time for including the numerical predictions for the US House, maybe I goes updating the diary before we begin to know the data of the vote count.

PRESIDENT AND VICEPRESIDENT

Overall estimation = + 2.0% Obama / Biden
Number of states = 26+DC (2 Loses + NE-02)
Electoral College = 332 Obama / Biden 206 Romney / Ryan

DC-P / DC-VP
VT-P / VT-VP
HI-P / HI-VP
MA-P / MA-VP
RI-P / RI -VP
NY-P / NY-VP
MD-P / MD-VP
IL-P / IL-VP
CA-P / CA-VP
DE-P / DE-VP

WA-P / WA-VP: + 13.58% Obama / Biden
ME-P / ME-VP: + 13.42% Obama / Biden
CT-P / CT-VP: + 12.75% Obama / Biden
NJ-P / NJ-VP: + 12.50% Obama / Biden
NM-P / NM-VP: + 8.25% Obama / Biden

OR-P / OR-VP: + 7.13% Obama / Biden
MN-P / MN-VP: + 6.92% Obama / Biden
MI-P / MI-VP: + 5.00% Obama / Biden
WI-P / WI-VP: + 4.83% Obama / Biden
NV-P / NV-VP: + 4.67% Obama / Biden
OH-P / OH-VP: + 4.50% Obama / Biden
PA-P / PA-VP: + 4.33% Obama / Biden (271 electoral votes until here)
CO-P / CO-VP: + 3.83% Obama / Biden
VA-P / VA-VP: + 3.75% Obama / Biden
NH-P / NH-VP: + 2.83% Obama / Biden
IA-P / IA-VP: + 2.58% Obama / Biden
FL-P / FL-VP: + 1.00% Obama / Biden

And the final map without Toss-ups:

Photobucket

SENATE
Total Senate seats = 55 (2 Gains)

VT-Sen: no data Sanders (I)
DE-Sen: no data Carper
WV-Sen: + 40.50% Manchin
NY-Sen: + 40.25% Gillibrand
MN-Sen: + 29.75% Klobuchar
MD-Sen: + 26.00% Cardin
WA-Sen: + 21.50% Cantwell
RI-Sen: + 21.25% Withehouse
NJ-Sen: + 18.75% Menendez
CA-Sen: + 18.50% Feinstein

ME-Sen: + 14.75% King (I)
HI-Sen: + 14.75% Hirono
FL-Sen: + 13.75% Nelson
MI-Sen: + 11.25% Stabenow
MO-Sen: + 8.25% McCaskill

PA-Sen: + 7.25% Casey
OH-Sen: + 7.25% Brown
NM-Sen: + 4.50% Heinrich
CT-Sen: + 4.25% Murphy
WI-Sen: + 2.25% Baldwin

VA-Sen: + 5.25% Kaine
MA-Sen: + 4.00% Warren
IN-Sen: + 2.50% Donnelly
ND-Sen: + 1.25% Heitkamp
MT-Sen: = 0.00% Tester

GOVERNORS
Total Governors = 20 (1 Lose)

VT-Gov: no data Shumlin
DE-Gov: no data Markell
WV-Gov: + 25.50% Tomblin

MO-Gov: + 11.25% Nixon

NH-Gov: + 5.00% Hassan
WA-Gov: + 1.00% Inslee

MT-Gov: + 2.25% Bullock

US HOUSE
Total House seats = 196 (3 Gains)

001: VT-AL
002: HI-02
003: MA-01
004: MA-02
005: MA-04
006: MA-05
007: MA-07
008: MA-08
009: MA-09
010: RI-02
011: NY-03
012: NY-04
013: NY-05
014: NY-07
015: NY-08
016: NY-09
017: NY-10
018: NY-12
019: NY-13
020: NY-14
021: NY-15
022: NY-16
023: NY-17
024: NY-20
025: NY-26
026: MD-02
027: MD-03
028: MD-04
029: MD-05
030: MD-07
031: MD-08
032: IL-01
033: IL-02
034: IL-03
035: IL-04
036: IL-05
037: IL-07
038: IL-09
039: CA-02
040: CA-05
041: CA-06
042: CA-11
043: CA-12
044: CA-13
045: CA-14
046: CA-15
047: CA-17
048: CA-18
049: CA-19
050: CA-20
051: CA-27
052: CA-28
053: CA-29
054: CA-30
055: CA-32
056: CA-34
057: CA-35
058: CA-37
059: CA-40
060: CA-43
061: CA-44
062: CA-51
063: CA-53
064: CT-01
065: CT-02
066: CT-03
067: CT-04
068: DE-AL
069: ME-01
070: ME-02
071: WA-02
072: WA-07
073: WA-09
074: MI-12
075: MI-13
076: MI-14
077: NJ-01
078: NJ-06
079: NJ-08
080: NJ-09
081: NJ-10
082: NJ-12
083: OR-01
084: OR-03
085: OR-04
086: OR-05
087: MN-04
088: MN-05
089: NM-03
090: PA-01
091: PA-02
092: PA-13
093: PA-14
094: PA-17
095: WI-02
096: WI-03
097: WI-04
098: NV-01
099: CO-01
100: CO-02
101: OH-03
102: OH-09
103: OH-11
104: OH-13
105: FL-05
106: FL-14
107: FL-20
108: FL-21
109: FL-24
110: VA-03
111: VA-08
112: VA-11
113: MO-01
114: MO-05
115: NC-01
116: NC-04
117: NC-12
118: AZ-03
119: AZ-07
120: IN-01
121: IN-07
122: GA-02
123: GA-04
124: GA-05
125: GA-13
126: SC-06
127: WV-03
128: TN-05
129: TN-09
130: KY-03
131: LA-02
132: MS-02
133: TX-09
134: TX-15
135: TX-16
136: TX-18
137: TX-28
138: TX-29
139: TX-30
140: TX-33
141: TX-35
142: AL-07

143: HI-01
144: MI-05
145: CA-38
146: NM-01
147: FL-09
148: NY-25
149: WA-06
150: CA-03
151: AZ-02
152: CA-47
153: CA-33

154: RI-01
155: NY-06
156: IL-08
157: FL-23
158: TX-34
159: MA-03
160: TX-20
161: CA-46
162: MI-09
163: WA-10
164: IA-02
165: CA-16
166: CA-24
167: WA-01
168: CT-05
169: NY-21
170: MN-01
171: NY-01
172: MN-07
173: KY-06
174: PA-12
175: GA-12
176: NC-07
177: FL-22
178: IL-13
179: CA-09
180: IL-12

181: NH-02
182: MD-06
183: AZ-09
184: IL-11
185: NY-24
186: TX-14
187: FL-26
188: MN-08
189: MI-01
190: FL-02
191: IA-01
192: CA-41
193: CA-26

194: CO-07
195: CA-52
196: IL-17

STATEWIDE ELECTED OFFICES
Total Statewide elected (in 2012) offices = 40 (1 Gain)

NC-AG: Unnoposed Cooper
WA-SPI: Elected in the primary Dorn
VT-SS: no data Condos
VT-AG: no data Sorrell
VT-ST: no data Pearce
DE-LG: no data Denn
DE-CI: no data Stewart
WV-SS: no data Tennant
WV-SA: no data Gainer
WA-ST: no data McIntire
WV-AG: + 24.00% McGraw
WV-ST: + 19.00% Perdue
WA-IC: + 15.00% Kreidler

WV-LG: linked to the majority in the WV-StS Kessler
MO-AG: + 13.50% Koster
OR-AG: + 13.00% Rosemblum
OR-ST: + 12.00% Wheeler
OR-SS: + 11.75% Brown
WA-CPL: + 10.75% Goldmark
PA-AG: + 10.00% Kane
WA-LG: + 9.00% Owen
MT-SA: + 9.00% Lindeen
WA-AG: + 8.75% Ferguson
WA-SS: + 8.00% Drew
WA-SA: + 7.50% Kelley

VT-SA: no data Hoffer
WV-CA: no data Helmick
NC-SS: + 7.00% Marshall
NC-SA: + 6.25% Wood
NC-CI: + 5.25% Goodwin
NC-SPI: + 5.00% Atkinson
NC-ST: + 4.75% Cowell
MT-SPI: + 3.00% Juneau
MO-ST: + 2.67% Zweifel
PA-ST: + 1.67% McCord
MT-SS: + 1.50% McCulloch
OR-CLI: + 1.25% Avakian
PA-SA: + 0.67% DePasquale

ND-SPI: + 6.00% Potter
MT-LG: + 2.25% Walsh

MAJORITY IN THE STATE LEGISLATURES
Number of state chambers with Democratic majority = 41 (3 Gains)

VT-StS
VT-StH
HI-StS
HI-StH
MA-StS
MA-StH
RI-StS
RI-StH
NY-StH
IL-StS
IL-StH
CA-StS
CA-StH
CT-StS
CT-StH
DE-StS
DE-StH

WA-StH
NM-StS
WV-StS
WV-StH

ME-StH
OR-StS
OR-StH
NM-StH
NV-StH
CO-StS
CO-StH
KY-StH

NY-StS
WA-StS
MN-StS
MN-StH
IA-StS
NV-StS

ME-StS
WI-StS

RACES TO WATCH THAT CAN INCREASE THE GAINS
NV-04
NE-02-P / NE-02-VP
NC-P / NC-VP
NY-27
NC-08
UT-04
IA-03
NV-Sen
AZ-01
MA-06
NC-LG
CA-07
MO-SS
FL-10
IL-10
AR-StS
AR-StH
NH-01
FL-18
Tx-23
CA-36
OH-16
OH-06
TX-23
VT-LG
Here is where the numbers drive me this cycle. Looking at the numbers I can not predict more victories, despite my wish to do it (the people read me lots of times about NV-Sen, as example), but I let you the chance to call for some "good surprise" in the following poll that includes the most competitive of these last races.
Poll

Select the most likely Democratic victory between the most competitive races to watch in my diary.

20%2 votes
0%0 votes
10%1 votes
0%0 votes
10%1 votes
10%1 votes
0%0 votes
10%1 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
30%3 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
10%1 votes

| 10 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Well I'm happy with the result of my prediction (0+ / 0-)

    STATEWIDE LEVEL

    In the statewide level my numbers run specially well. We are waiting still some report but until now I call all the right winners except for three races (presidential level + senate level + gubernatorial level + statewide elected officers level):

    I call D but was R:
    WV-AG: McGraw loses by less than 2.5%
    ND-SPI: Potter

    I call R but was D:
    MO-SS: Kander loses by less than 2.5%

    Two of these races end very close. In West Virginia McGraw has the same trouble than Waxman in CA-33, but even worse. I have both races in my alert all the summer because of the abysmal fundraising disadvantage of both (McGraw and Waxman). Early polls whow McGraw as safe, but he ends losing. I think it is the money. In Missouri Kander is just the contrary case. The polls shows Kander consistently back, but he leads the fundraising all the cycle, and finally he wins.

    In the case of the race of North Dakota, my pre-poll numbers were giving a Republican victory, but Mason-Dixon gives Potter leading in two polls, showing also a bad trend that finally ends in a lose.

    STATE LEGISLATURE LEVEL

    In this level still I know not all the results but it seems I fail only one winner.

    I call D but was R:
    WI-StS: by one seat.

    Surely this was one of my most risky calls.

    That mean I have only 4 mistakes counting all the levels except the US House. I'm very happy with this result.

  •  And the US House (0+ / 0-)

    I always have more trouble with the house seats because of the lower quality of the polls. But fighting it.

    There still 10 uncalled races, but I expect not changes in the current results. In my prediction I call for 196 seats and the blue team will likely have 200. I think it is not a bad result. It is good. The polls where showing a little lower result.

    And I see as a positive data that there are a good number of new Democrats in favorable districts, moving a little to the left the ideological balance of the Democratic caucus. Still I would be happier with a majority in the chamber with some Democrat more from R+ districts.

    Most of my smitakes are very close races, and a good number still uncalled, but I will include all in this resume about my prediction. I call wrong 18 races.

    I call D but R wins in 7 seats:
    IL-13: Gill loses by less than 1%
    MI-01: McDowell loses by less than 1%
    AZ-02: Barber loses by less than 1%
    PA-12: Critz
    KY-06: Chandler
    FL-02: Lawson
    TX-14: Lampson

    I call R but D wins in 11 seats:
    NV-04: Horsford
    UT-04: Matheson wins by less than 2.5%
    AZ-01: Kirkpatrick
    MA-06: Tierney wins by less than 1%
    CA-07: Bera wins by less than 1%
    IL-10: Schneider wins by less than 1%
    NH-01: Shea-Porter
    NY-18: Maloney
    FL-18: Murphy wins by less than 1%
    CA-36: Ruiz
    TX-23: Gallego

    All the 12 races (in all the levels) that I call Republican but a Democrat win were in my list of 24 races to watch except NY-18. For me the biggest good surprise of the cycle.

  •  Not bad at all (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    You did well :)

  •  Final result? (0+ / 0-)

    Waiting to WA-SS but I expect little changes from here:

    PRESIDENT AND VICEPRESIDENT (BY STATE): 26 states + DC (2 loses + NE-02) and 332 EV

    All the calls were right.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SENATE 55 seats (2 gains)

    All the calls were right.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    GUBERNATORIAL 20 governors (1 lose)

    All the calls were right.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    US HOUSE 200 seats (7 gains)

    I predicted 196 seats but I have 18 predicting mistakes.

    I call D but R wins in 7 seats:
    IL-13: Gill loses by less than 1%
    MI-01: McDowell loses by less than 1%
    AZ-02: Barber loses by less than 1%
    PA-12: Critz
    KY-06: Chandler
    FL-02: Lawson
    TX-14: Lampson

    I call R but D wins in 11 seats:
    NV-04: Horsford
    UT-04: Matheson wins by less than 2.5%
    AZ-01: Kirkpatrick
    MA-06: Tierney wins by less than 1%
    CA-07: Bera wins by less than 1%
    IL-10: Schneider wins by less than 1%
    NH-01: Shea-Porter
    NY-18: Maloney
    FL-18: Murphy wins by less than 1%
    CA-36: Ruiz
    TX-23: Gallego

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    STATEWIDE ELECTED OFFICES 41 offices (2 gains)

    I predicted the exact number of offices in Democratic hands but I have 4 predicting mistakes.

    I call D but was R:
    WV-AG: McGraw loses by less than 2.5%
    ND-SPI: Potter

    I call R but was D:
    MO-SS: Kander wins by less than 2.5%
    IN-SPI: Ritz

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    STATE LEGISLATURE CHAMBERS 41 state chambers (3 gains for all the cycle, now 4 gains)

    I predicted the exact number of state chambers in blue hands but I have 2 predicting mistakes.

    I call D but was R:
    WI-StS: by one seat.

    I call R but was D:
    NH-StH:

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    •  Overall (0+ / 0-)

      Numbers:

      - 96.73% of correct calls, 709 of 733.

      - 100% of correct calls for President and Vicepresident
      - 100% of correct calls for the Senate level
      - 100% of correct calls for the Gubernatorial level
      - 95.86% of correct calls for the US House level
      - 93.85% of correct calls for the Statewide offices level
      - 97.67% of correct calls for the State Legislature level

      - 98.28% of correct calls in statewide level races.

      I get happy with the election results and with my prediction.

      The biggest surprises good surprises for me NH-StH and IN-SPI.

      Waiting to WA-SS. The rest would not change this resume except if it is some change after some recount.

  •  Good job! n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

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