Here is my full analysis of the new Minnesota state legislative maps complete with individual race ratings for every seat. Needless to say, I do not know everything about every region of the state nor did I research hardly any of the challengers in each race. So ultimately, my ratings rely more on the numbers and less on personal or anecdotal information that can only be known by knowing each race on a deeper level. I'd say this lead my ratings to being somewhat conservative, particularly in the suburbs. But at the same time, by eliminating my personal feelings that can't be factually proven, my ratings become almost an over-all rating for the map itself versus an analysis of how I think 2012 will go. Particularly since it's hard to judge how it will go here in Minnesota as even while Obama is expected to come close to his 2008 margins, I think we'll see differences in where those votes are coming from within the state. And, we also have areas in the state where Obama winning by 10% isn't enough to carry state legislative races over the finish line.
The courts tried to change as little of the map as possible, while totally ignoring incumbent residency in the process. Lots of people got screwed over, but ultimately, the map changed little. It was a given that the DFL would lose a state house seat in Minneapolis and St. Paul apiece, with the a Greater MN seat of theirs also most likely. This was to make room for new seats in the exurbs, and this thinking came to fruition. But as I say above, this doesn't help the Republicans very much. The main problem for them is that they won so many seats in 2010 that they have very few pick-up opportunities. In fact, if it weren't for some opportune retirements, it's likely they wouldn't have picked up anything. Below are a map of the state senate and the state house showing how I rate them along with the summation of the ratings. The main thing to point out on these maps is that every single toss-up seat is held by Republicans. Also, we only need 5 seats to tie, 6 to win, the state house, and four seats in the state senate to win the majority there.
Safe GOP: 21; Likely GOP: 4; Lean GOP: 3; Toss-Up: 10; Lean DFL: 2; Likely DFL: 3; Safe DFL: 24
Safe GOP: 44; Likely GOP: 8; Lean GOP: 6; Toss-Up: 14; Lean DFL: 7; Likely DFL: 7; Safe DFL: 48
Things to Know For this to Make Sense
First thing to note is how our districting works. We have a map of 67 senate districts (SD's) and each of these broken down into two state house seats, an A and a B.
Second would be the tables. Bolded seats in the "Prognosis" column are pick-ups. New seats were gamed out to see where they came from and to see if it was a pick-up or not.
In the incumbent column, I included obviously all incumbents running for the seat and I also included state representatives looking for an upgrade to the state senate seat. You can tell what type of "incumbent" they are by looking at the info in the parentheses after their name. The info within that is their political party and also their old seat under the 2000-2010 map. This way you can also see if they got moved to a different seat as I matched up new districts and old districts as well. Also, people in italics are incumbents who lost in the endorsement. Bolded people are ones who lost in the primary.
And one thing that could be a head scratcher is how could an SD get, say more DFL while both state house seats got more Republican. In those situations, it's because senate seats ended up with different pairings of house seats so maybe the 34A got more Republican. But it's still less Republican than the old 33B and now 34A got paired up with the old 33A making a new SD that is more DFL while both house seats got more Republican than their old iterations.
Edit: Should have noted that Presidential result numbers are the margin of victory, with D and R notating which party got that margin of victory.
Northwest Minnesota
New Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Old Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Net Change |
Inc. Party |
Prognosis |
Incumbent |
SD1 |
D.37 |
SD1 |
D.36 |
D.01 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
LeRoy Stumpf (DFL:SD1) |
1A |
R3.54 |
1A |
R3.95 |
D.41 |
GOP |
Lean GOP |
Dan Fabian (R:1A) |
1B |
D4.31 |
1B |
D4.59 |
R.28 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Debria Kiel (R:1B) |
SD2 |
R3.32 |
SD2 |
D1.82 |
R5.14 |
DFL |
Lean DFL |
Rod Skoe (DFL:SD2) |
2A |
R.13 |
2B |
R1.44 |
D1.31 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
David Hancock (R:2B) |
2B |
R6.67 |
2A |
D5.37 |
R12.05 |
DFL |
Toss-Up |
Open |
SD4 |
D12.17 |
SD9 |
D9.85 |
D2.32 |
DFL |
Likely DFL |
Kent Eken (DFL:2A) |
4A |
D18.41 |
9A |
D17.77 |
D.64 |
GOP |
Likely DFL |
Open |
4B |
D6.43 |
9B |
D1.84 |
D4.59 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Paul Marquart (DFL:9B) |
SD8 |
R11.35 |
SD10 |
R14.01 |
D2.67 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Bill Ingrebrigtsen (R:SD11) |
8A |
R11.96 |
10A |
R9.68 |
R2.27 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Bud Nornes (R:10A) |
8B |
R10.78 |
10B |
R18.44 |
D7.66 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Mary Franson (R:11B) |
SD9 |
R16.7 |
SD4 |
R4.71 |
R11.99 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Paul Gazelka (R:SD12) |
9A |
R16.11 |
11B |
11.86 |
R4.25 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Open |
9B |
R17.31 |
12B |
R16.36 |
R.95 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Open |
The only major change from the current map in Northwest Minnesota would be the new 2B and new 4B, as the new 4B took the most DFL territory from the current version of 2B, so one becomes more DFL while another more GOP. As a result, two DFL state house incumbents were paired into 4B, and 2B becomes 12.05% more GOP and is now open to boot. The DFL still does have a chance to hold this seat with Brita Sailer running for us, who represented the district to the north from 2007-2011 but was moved into this district. And, 4A is now an open seat as long-time public servant, Republican Morrie Lanning, is retiring so this should be an easy pick-up for the DFL. Over-all, the DFL were better of under the old map, but Manning retires means we should at least break even.
Northeast Minnesota
New Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Old Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Net Change |
Inc. Party |
Prognosis |
Incumbent |
SD3 |
D20.09 |
SD6 |
D22.21 |
R2.12 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Tom Bakk (DFL:SD6) |
3A |
D15.01 |
6A |
D19.01 |
R4 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
David Dill (DFL:6A) |
3B |
D25.3 |
3B |
D25.4 |
R.1 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Mary Murphy (DFL:6B) |
SD5 |
D5.47 |
SD3 |
D8.54 |
R3.08 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
John Carlson (R:SD4); Tom Saxhaug (DFL:SD3) |
5A |
D6.1 |
4A |
D6.3 |
R.2 |
DFL |
Likely DFL |
John Persell (DFL:4A); Larry Howes (R:4B) |
5B |
D4.38 |
3A |
D13.36 |
R8.98 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Carolyn McElfatrick (R:3B); Tom Anzelc (DFL:3A) |
SD6 |
D31.17 |
SD5 |
R31.26 |
R.09 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
David Tomassoni (DFL:SD5) |
6A |
D31.13 |
5B |
D29.63 |
D1.49 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Carly Melin (DFL:5B) |
6B |
D31.21 |
5A |
D32.82 |
R1.61 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Open |
SD7 |
D40.45 |
SD7 |
D41.01 |
R.56 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Roger Reinert (DFL:SD7) |
7A |
D37.7 |
7A |
D36.1 |
D1.6 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Thomas Huntley (DFL:7A) |
7B |
D43.36 |
7B |
D47.18 |
R3.82 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Kerry Gauthier (DFL:7B) |
SD10 |
R6.06 |
SD12 |
R9.98 |
D3.92 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Open |
10A |
R7.28 |
12A |
R3.97 |
R3.31 |
DFL |
Likely DFL |
John Ward (DFL:12A) |
10B |
R4.93 |
3B |
D3.02 |
R7.95 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Open |
SD11 |
D12.74 |
SD8 |
D9.17 |
D3.57 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Tony Lourey (DFL:SD8) |
11A |
D27.33 |
8A |
D25.8 |
D1.53 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Open |
11B |
R2.65 |
8B |
R7.32 |
D4.66 |
GOP |
Lean DFL |
Open |
Northeastern Minnesota is where the DFL was given a major solid as the population loss could have easily meant a state house seat would be lost from the DFL. Instead, the court eliminated a GOP seat from central MN and shifted accordingly. The "left-over" Iron Range SD5 was made more Republican and without our benefit of incumbency, could become questionable in the future. The courts did remedy this in other ways, but over-all, I'd say a DFLer should be content with this portion of the map.
5B becomes considerably more Republican without Koochiching County, but still in a manner where the DFL majority should always dominate over the new "tail-side" of the district. And to help out SD5 over-all from 5B's reddening, they attach the new 5A to it, which has seen it's former SD-partner eliminated. And that eliminated seat, the old 4B, which is where 10A, 5A, 5B, and the violet, yellow, and indigo districts that are cut-off meet up on the map, had a seven term GOP incumbent. 10B does become more Republican by losing it's Iron Range Cities and moving southwest, and 11B becomes more DFL and a solid pick-up opportunity as it's an open seat with the guy who just lost in 2010, Tim Faust, running for us once again.
St. Cloud
New Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Old Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Net Change |
Inc. Party |
Prognosis |
Incumbent |
SD12 |
R8.23 |
SD11 |
R7.26 |
R.98 |
GOP |
Likely GOP |
Torrey Westrom (R:11A) |
12A |
D.44 |
11A |
R2.8 |
D3.24 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Open |
12B |
R18.22 |
13A |
R14.48 |
R3.74 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Paul Anderson (R:13A) |
SD13 |
R10.62 |
SD14 |
R11.29 |
D.67 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Michelle Fischbach (R:SD14) |
13A |
R10.63 |
14B |
R10.51 |
R.12 |
DFL |
Likely GOP |
Open |
13B |
R10.59 |
14A |
R11.99 |
D1.4 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Tim O'Driscoll (R:14A) |
SD14 |
D5.45 |
SD15 |
D5.16 |
D.29 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
John Pederson (R:SD15) |
14A |
R.81 |
15A |
R2.38 |
D1.57 |
GOP |
Lean GOP |
Steve Gottwalt (R:15A) |
14B |
D11.61 |
15B |
D14.44 |
R2.83 |
GOP |
Lean DFL |
King Banaian (R:15B) |
SD15 |
R16.83 |
SD16 |
R19 |
D2.16 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Dave Brown (R:SD16) |
15A |
R11.5 |
16A |
R13.75 |
D2.25 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Sondra Erickson (R:16A) |
15B |
R22.24 |
New Seat |
|
|
|
Safe GOP |
Open |
The courts combined DFL portions along the Dakota border to make a competitive house seat for the DFL, but the Senate pairing rearrangements gave the GOP incumbent a pretty safe senate seat to run for. So we do have a seat Obama won that's open, but it's hard to see much of this being a positive considering what happened in Southwestern Minnesota. Further east, the courts, instead of creating another exurban seat, created another St. Cloud metro seat with 15B. It's Republican as hell, but I like seeing extra representation for my hometown area. 13A is now an open seat and without DFL wonder boy Larry Hosch, we're pretty much doomed. The central St. Cloud seat, 14B, does become a little less DFL, but we should still be able to pick it back up after an embarrassing loss in 2010 when we lost by 13 votes, and where the district hosts the second largest university in the state.
Southwest Minnesota
New Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Old Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Net Change |
Inc. Party |
Prognosis |
Incumbent |
SD16 |
R5.41 |
SD21 |
R8.01 |
D2.59 |
GOP |
Likely GOP |
Gary Dahms (R:SD21) |
16A |
D1.14 |
21A |
R4.46 |
D5.6 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Chris Swedzinski |
16B |
R12.01 |
21B |
R11.54 |
R.47 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Paul Torkelson (R:21B) |
SD17 |
R.3 |
13 |
R10.11 |
D9.81 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Lyle Koenen (DFL:20B); Joe Gimse (R:SD13) |
17A |
D2.06 |
20B |
D3.67 |
R1.62 |
DFL |
Lean DFL |
Andrew Falk (DFL:20A) |
17B |
R2.73 |
13B |
R5.57 |
D2.84 |
GOP |
Lean GOP |
Bruce Vogel (R:13B) |
SD18 |
R16.77 |
SD18 |
R15.54 |
R1.24 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Scott Newman (R:SD18) |
18A |
R14.38 |
18B |
R12.5 |
R1.88 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Dean Urdahl (R:18B) |
18B |
R19.36 |
18A |
R18.46 |
R.9 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Glenn Gruenhagen (R:25A) |
SD19 |
D14.69 |
SD23 |
D14.75> |
R.06 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Kathy Sheran (DFL:SD23) |
19A |
D12.05 |
23A |
D5.67 |
D6.39 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Terry Morrow (DFL:23A) |
19B |
D17.35 |
23B |
D19.16 |
R1.81 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Kathy Brynaert (DFL:23B) |
SD22 |
R5.09 |
SD22 |
R5.88 |
D.79 |
GOP |
Lean GOP |
Open |
22A |
R7.66 |
22A |
R8.47 |
D.81 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Joe Schomacker (R:22A) |
22B |
R2.16 |
22B |
R3.14 |
D.99 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Rod Hamilton (R:22B) |
SD23 |
R6.77 |
SD24 |
R6.46 |
R.31 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Julie Rosen (R:SD24) |
23A |
R12.9 |
24A |
R11.45 |
R1.45 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Bob Gunther (R:24A) |
23B |
R.62 |
24B |
R2.11 |
D1.49 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Tony Cornish (R:24B) |
The Southwestern region saw the only true mash-up of districts where the two incumbents have a near even split between old constituents and new constituents. This mash-up resulted in the DFL getting a map where we can run the table and end up better off, but the more likely scenario is we got screwed. And the courts did this needlessly as to put it back to the old way, all we need to do is re-pair 12B with 17B and 12A with 17A. But alas, our Lean DFL was combined with there Safe/Likely GOP, and we got washed out. But as I said, it's possible we could run the table.
Southeast Minnesota
New Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Old Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Net Change |
Inc. Party |
Prognosis |
Incumbent |
SD20 |
D.43 |
SD25 |
D.8 |
R.37 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Open |
20A |
R15.15 |
25A |
R8.81 |
R6.33 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Kelby Woodard (R:25B) |
20B |
D14.73 |
25B |
D9.15 |
D5.58 |
GOP |
Likely DFL |
Open |
SD21 |
R.16 |
SD28 |
D1.69 |
R1.85 |
GOP |
Likely GOP |
John Howe (R:SD28) |
21A |
D5.63 |
28A |
R6.27 |
R.64 |
GOP |
Likely GOP |
Tim Kelly (R:28A) |
21B |
R6.17 |
28B |
R3.01 |
R3.16 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Steve Drazkowski (R:28B) |
SD24 |
R4.19 |
SD26 |
R3.73 |
R.46 |
GOP |
Lean GOP |
Open |
24A |
R6.08 |
26A |
R6.08 |
Same |
DFL |
Likely GOP |
Open |
24B |
R2.05 |
26B |
D.09 |
R2.14 |
DFL |
Lean DFL |
Patti Fritz (DFL:26B) |
SD25 |
D1.27 |
SD29 |
D.57 |
D.69 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
David Senjem (R:SD29) |
25A |
R5.96 |
29A |
R5.33 |
R.64 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Duane Quam (R:29A) |
25B |
D8.17 |
29B |
D7.71 |
D.47 |
DFL |
Likely DFL |
Kim Norton (DFL:29B) |
SD26 |
D2.68 |
SD30 |
D1.81 |
D.87 |
GOP |
Lean GOP |
Carla Nelson (R:SD30) |
26A |
D14.28 |
30A |
D15.91 |
R1.63 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Tina Liebling (DFL:30A) |
26B |
R8.2 |
30B |
R8.77 |
D.57 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Mike Benson (GOP:30B) |
SD27 |
D19.17 |
SD27 |
D19.21 |
R.04 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Dan Sparks (DFL:SD27) |
27A |
D15.63 |
27A |
D18.14 |
R2.51 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Rich Murray (R:27A) |
27B |
D23.14 |
27B |
D20.35 |
D2.79 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Jeanne Poppe (DFL:27B) |
SD28 |
D15.74 |
SD31 |
D17.11 |
R1.37 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Jeremy Miller (R:SD31) |
28A |
D22.14 |
31A |
D22.11 |
D.03 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Gene Pelowski (DFL:31A) |
28B |
D9.45 |
31B |
D11.85 |
R2.39 |
GOP |
Lean GOP |
Greg Davids (R:31B) |
Southeastern Minnesota may have seen the least amount of change compared to any other region, particularly due to the city of Rochester continuing it's trend of growing in the lower 20th percentile, now making the city the third in the state to be over 100k pop. This balanced out the long-term trend of rural areas losing population so we basically got left with tweaks instead of changes. The most prominent tweak was in SD20, which is a swing district because the city of Northfield, with it's two private colleges, balances out the rural territory. Within this SD, the courts gave 20A the dark-red exurban territory that was in 20B last decade, making the seat so heavily DFL now that it should be impossible for us to lose, even in a 2010 scenario. Along with that almost automatic pick-up, the DFL stands to gain ground in this region since 2010 was such a disaster for us.
Exurbs
New Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Old Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Net Change |
Inc. Party |
Prognosis |
Incumbent |
SD29 |
R15.19 |
SD19 |
R17.35 |
D2.15 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Bruce Anderson (R:19A) |
29A |
R18.05 |
19B |
R20.58 |
D2.52 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Joe McDonald (R:19B) |
29B |
R1216 |
19A |
R13.28 |
D1.11 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Open |
SD30 |
R18.7 |
New Seat |
|
|
|
Safe GOP |
Mary Kiffmeyer (R:16B) |
30A |
R16 |
16B |
R23.49 |
D7.49 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Open |
30B |
R21.44 |
New Seat |
|
|
|
Safe GOP |
Open |
SD31 |
R20.5 |
SD48 |
R12.79 |
R7.71 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Michael Jungbauer (R:SD48); Michelle Benson (R:SD49) |
31A |
R23.05 |
New Seat |
|
|
|
Safe GOP |
Kurt Daudt (R:17A) |
31B |
R18.29 |
48A |
R17.27 |
R1.02 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Tom Hackbarth (R:48A) |
SD32 |
R11.22 |
SD17 |
R12.25 |
D1.02 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Sean Nienow (R:17) |
32A |
R12.02 |
17A |
R15.03 |
D3.01 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Open |
32B |
R10.43 |
17B |
R9.69 |
R.75 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Bob Barrett (R:17B:) |
As expected, the exurbs scored big with a new seat in the northwest exurbs and a new seat to the north of Minneapolis/St. Paul, coming at the expense of the two districts eliminated in each respective twin city. This comes as no surprise as I graduated from high school in the new 30B, having moved there in 2000, and it's a completely different place. It's practically suburban, at this point, so losing solid DFL seats to this solid GOP area came as no surprise.
Southwest Metro
New Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Old Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Net Change |
Inc. Party |
Prognosis |
Incumbent |
SD47 |
R16.8 |
R34 |
R15.26 |
R1.54 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Julianne Ortman (R:SD34) |
47A |
R23.3 |
34A |
R22.34 |
R.97 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Ernie Leidiger (R:34A) |
47B |
R10.98 |
34B |
R6.63 |
R4.34 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Joe Hoppe (R:34B) |
SD48 |
D5.02 |
SD42 |
D6.24 |
R1.22 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
David Hann (R:SD42) |
48A |
D7.6 |
42A |
D10.29 |
R2.68 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Kirk Stensrud (R:42A) |
48B |
D2.24 |
42B |
D2.52 |
R.28 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Jenifer Loon (R:42B) |
SD55 |
R10.39 |
SD35 |
R10.09 |
R.3 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Open |
55A |
R.8 |
35A |
R5.22 |
D4.41 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Michael Beard (R:35A) |
55B |
R18.36 |
35B |
R15.56 |
R2.8 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Open |
The southwest metro saw a bit of change, but nothing very drastic. The new SD55 loses the suburb of Savage, as population growth in Scott County was 45.2%. This meant that the former 35A shrunk considerably to become the new 55A, which makes it a toss-up at the top of the ticket, but it's still a long way from electing a DFLer at the state legislative level. The new 48A is a more Republican version of it's former self, which sucks considering it's a suburban seat that's been shifting our way and that we held from 2005-2010. It's still a toss-up and that's because it's hard to predict if enough Obama voters will vote DFL down-ballot.
South Metro
New Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Old Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Net Change |
Inc. Party |
Prognosis |
Incumbent |
SD51 |
D11.22 |
SD38 |
D10.77 |
D.45 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Ted Daley (R:SD38) |
51A |
D14.42 |
38A |
D13.92 |
D.5 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Diane Anderson (R:38A) |
51B |
D8.08 |
38B |
D7.65 |
D.44 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Doug Wardlow (R:38B) |
SD52 |
D15.81 |
SD39 |
D15.27 |
D.54 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
James Metzen (DFL:SD39) |
52A |
D21.35 |
39A |
D19.26 |
D2.09 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Rick Hansen (DFL:39A) |
52B |
D10.74 |
39B |
D11.41 |
R.67 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Joe Atkins (DFL:39B) |
SD54 |
D9.01 |
SD57 |
D9.78 |
R.77 |
DFL |
Likely DFL |
Katie Sieben (DFL:SD57) |
54A |
D14.14 |
57A |
D15.72 |
R1.58 |
GOP |
Lean DFL |
Open |
54B |
D4.05 |
57B |
D4.44 |
R.4 |
GOP |
Likely GOP |
Denny McNamara (R:57B) |
SD56 |
D.38 |
SD40 |
D10.52 |
R10.14 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Dan Hall (R:SD40) |
56A |
R1.73 |
New Seat |
|
|
|
Safe GOP |
Pam Myhra (R:40A) |
56B |
D2.26 |
40A |
D8.59 |
R6.34 |
GOP |
Lean GOP |
Open |
SD57 |
D3.21 |
SD37 |
D4 |
R.79 |
GOP |
Lean GOP |
Open |
57A |
D5 |
37A |
D5.86 |
R.86 |
GOP |
Likely GOP |
Tara Mack (R:37A) |
57B |
D1.38 |
37B |
D2.29 |
R.91 |
GOP |
Lean GOP |
Open |
SD58 |
R9.97 |
SD36 |
R9.47 |
R.51 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
|
58A |
R11.19 |
36A |
R10.31 |
R.88 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Mary Liz Holberg (R:36A) |
58B |
R8.74 |
36B |
R8.67 |
R.07 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Pat Garofalo (R:36B) |
As been kind of the theme of the map, much happened in this part of the state. Because of population growth in the Scott County exurbs, we get the new 56A. It's more of a southwest metro seat, but because of it's senate pairing, it ends up here in the south metro. It's too Republican for us to win for the time being, but it does let us have a better shot at an open 56B. 54A is also open after newly elected GOPer John Kriesel decided after having been in the army and now being a politician, he is going to miss out on his kid's childhoods. But he'll be back and he'll piss us off with his ability to win DFL constituencies once again.
North Metro
New Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Old Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Net Change |
Inc. Party |
Prognosis |
Incumbent |
SD35 |
R11.55 |
SD49 |
10.63 |
R.92 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Branden Petersen (R:49B) |
35A |
R6.88 |
48B |
R7.78 |
D.9 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Jim Abeler (R:48B) |
35B |
R15.58 |
49A |
R19.94 |
D4.36 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Peggy Scott (R:49A) |
SD36 |
D2.76 |
SD47 |
D4.25 |
R1.48 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Benjamin Kruse (GOP:SD47) |
36A |
R1.71 |
47A |
R2.09 |
D.38 |
DFL |
Lean GOP |
Open |
36B |
D7.83 |
47B |
D9.84 |
R2 |
DFL |
Likely DFL |
Melissa Hortman (DFL:47B) |
SD37 |
D3.97 |
SD51 |
D6.05 |
R2.09 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Pam Wolf (GOP:SD51) |
37A |
D8.02 |
49B |
D.45 |
D7.57 |
GOP |
Lean DFL |
Open |
37B |
0 |
51A |
D1.46 |
R1.46 |
GOP |
Lean GOP |
Tim Sanders (GOP:51A) |
SD40 |
D32.99 |
SD46 |
D34.08 |
R1.09 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Chris Eaton (DFL:SD46) |
40A |
D35.43 |
46A |
D36.09 |
R.066 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Michael Nelson (DFL:46A) |
40B |
D30.76 |
46B |
D32.26 |
R1.49 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Debra Hilstrom (DFL:46B) |
SD41 |
D19.85 |
SD50 |
D16.74 |
D3.12 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Barbara Goodwin (DFL:SD50) |
41A |
D17.96 |
51B |
D12.2 |
D5.76 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Open; Tom Tillbery (DFL:51B) |
41B |
D21.73 |
50A |
D25.2 |
R3.46 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Carolyn Laine (DFL:50A) |
Our position at retaking the senate will be made tougher by the courts tweaking two seats we held for a long time in this region. Both SD36 and SD37 get more Republican, and SD41 gets packed with more DFLers. We do get a great pick-up opportunity with 37A, which is the reformed version of a seat that once sat slightly further north. With this iteration, and with our former incumbent who lost in 2010 running again, we should have the slight favor, even with it being a suburban seat where Obama winning by a high-single digit margin isn't always enough. 36A is now open and we'll probably lose that one, which is a bummer.
Northeast Metro
New Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Old Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Net Change |
Inc. Party |
Prognosis |
Incumbent |
SD38 |
R3.21 |
SD53 |
D2.18 |
R5.39 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Roger Chamberlain (R:SD53) |
38A |
R5.1 |
53A |
R.94 |
R4.16 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Linda Runbeck (R:53A) |
38B |
R1.43 |
53B |
D5.34 |
R6.77 |
GOP |
Likely GOP |
Matt Dean (R:52B); Carol McFarlane (R:53B) |
SD39 |
R.58 |
SD52 |
R4.56 |
D3.98 |
GOP |
Lean GOP |
Open |
39A |
R4.04 |
52A |
R8.95 |
D4.91 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Bob Dettmer (R:52A) |
39B |
D2.78 |
56A |
D2.93 |
R.16 |
GOP |
Likely GOP |
Kathy Lohmer (R:56A) |
SD42 |
D9.6 |
SD54 |
D17.25 |
R7.65 |
DFL |
Lean DFL |
Bev Scalze (DFL:54B) |
42A |
D5.37 |
50B |
D9.29 |
R3.92 |
DFL |
Toss-Up |
Open |
42B |
D13.74 |
54B |
D12.97 |
D.87 |
DFL |
Lean DFL |
Open |
SD43 |
D15.67 |
SD55 |
D18.08 |
R2.41 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Charles Wiger (DFL:SD55) |
43A |
D14.53 |
New Seat |
|
|
|
Safe DFL |
Open |
43B |
D16.91 |
55A |
D20.61 |
R3.7 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Leon Lillie (DFL:55A) |
SD53 |
D8.81 |
SD56 |
D5.01 |
D3.79 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Ted Lillie (R:SD56) |
53A |
D16.05 |
55B |
D15.66 |
D.4 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Open |
53B |
D.49 |
56B |
D6.8 |
R6.31 |
GOP |
Likely GOP |
Andrea Kieffer (R:56B) |
The courts decided to even out the inevitable elimination of DFL seats in Minneapolis/St. Paul in the Northeast Metro here. They eliminate the House Majority Leader's seat and create a Safe DFL seat with the new 43A, even going so far as to divide the city of Maplewood between four different state house seats. This rearranges all of the state senate seats to boot, all in our favor. SD39 becomes more DFL and is open after two incumbents were paired up here and one announced he'd retire after forcing the other incumbent to move to the much more DFL SD53, which is also another big pick-up opportunity.
West Metro
New Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Old Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Net Change |
Inc. Party |
Prognosis |
Incumbent |
SD33 |
R11.2 |
SD33 |
R7.51 |
R3.69 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Open; Connie Doepke (R:33B) |
33A |
R19.62 |
33A |
R11.22 |
R8.41 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Open |
33B |
R3.13 |
33B |
R3.62 |
D.48 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Open; Steve Smith (R:33A) |
SD34 |
R7.59 |
SD32 |
R10.37 |
D2.78 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Warren Limmer (GOP:SD32) |
34A |
R12.26 |
32A |
R16.98 |
D4.73 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Joyce Peppin (GOP:32A) |
34B |
R3.35 |
32B |
R1.31 |
R2.04 |
GOP |
Safe GOP |
Kurt Zellers (GOP:32B) |
SD44 |
D8.53 |
SD43 |
D10.52 |
R1.99 |
DFL |
Likely DFL |
Terri Bonoff (DFL:SD43) |
44A |
D3.08 |
43A |
D6.69 |
R3.61 |
GOP |
Likely GOP |
Sarah Anderson (GOP:43A) |
44B |
D13.23 |
43B |
D14.57 |
R1.35 |
DFL |
Likely DFL |
John Benson (DFL:43B) |
SD45 |
D22.69 |
SD45 |
D22.48 |
D.22 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Anne Rest (DFL:SD45) |
45A |
D17.88 |
45A |
D18.08 |
R.19 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Lyndon Carlson (DFL:45A) |
45B |
D27.4 |
45B |
D26.55 |
D.84 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Open |
SD46 |
D35.59 |
SD44 |
D37.28 |
R1.69 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Ron Latz (DFL:SD44) |
46A |
D34.4 |
44B |
D37.63 |
R3.23 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Ryan Winkler DFL:44B) |
46B |
D36.91 |
44A |
D36.91 |
0 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Steve Simon (DFL:44A) |
SD49 |
D10.76 |
SD41 |
D10.8 |
R.04 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Keith Downey (GOP:41A) |
49A |
D12.24 |
41A |
D12.6 |
R.36 |
GOP |
Likely DFL |
Open |
49B |
D9.37 |
41B |
D8.8 |
D.57 |
GOP |
Toss-Up |
Open |
The Western suburbs have been holding their own when it comes to population growth with there being little to no extremes in loss or growth in any given city. Thus, this portion of the map saw the least change of anywhere in the state. Newly numbered SD44, where the DFL was able to have a couple of rare success stories in the upper-class, second ring suburbs last election, did become a smidge more Republican. But the city of Minnetonka's new status as solid DFL should almost always be able to counter-balance any combination mapmakers can create, save for a Minnetonka plus Lake Minnetonka configuration, so our incumbents should be fine here.
There was, however, a lot of action when it came to how the candidates for the general election shook-out. First, in the Lake Minnetonka area encompassed by SD33, state house incumbent Steve Smith's hometown of Mound was thrown into Connie Doepke's house seat of 33B. But, long-time state senator Gen Olson retired so Doepke ran for senate and Smith was able to avoid having to decide to move or face-off against an incumbent. This all gets blown to shit, anyway. Smith is more moderate and even though he went from a seat Obama lost by 11% to one he lost by 3%, thus making him a better fit politically, Smith still lost in the primary 70%-30% to a tea-party upstart due to the area being new to him. Doepke also become a loser in the primary by 2% for reasons I can't quite figure out since she was a solid GOP vote. She lost the GOP endorsement handedly and several local area legislators endorsed her opponent, including US Rep. Paulsen, and while a primary lost wasn't shocking, it seemed rather needless.
SD49 also had some candidate recruitment worth mentioning and unlike SD33, where Obama only won six precincts total, SD49 sees a lot of opportunity for the DFL. First, the incumbent state senator decided to retire after his leadership position was revoked when he failed to publicly mention an affair the senate majority leader was having with a staff member. So, state Rep. Keith Downey decided to seek a promotion to the state senate instead of seek re-election to his house seat, which Obama won by over 12%. Downey was first elected there in 2008 with 36.7% of the vote as the GOP threw out an 18-year GOP incumbent, Ron Erhardt, because he voted with the DFL to override a Pawlenty veto and Erhardt decided to run as an Indy. Downey managed to win by 3% in 2010, but 2012 should be a very different story in Edina and west Bloomington as Downey is a tea-party loon, thus making the state senate district he is running for a great pick-up opportunity for the DFL. Also, with Downey leaving his state house seat behind, Erhardt is running again for the open seat, but this time as a DFLer so I consider this a likely flip, especially since Downey only got lucky before. And to compound the problem further for the GOP, they won back 49B from us in 2010, but their incumbent is already retiring and we have our former incumbent running for us once again. If one wants to find some of the most likely seats to flip, I'd choose SD49, even though my rankings show a bit of conservatism.
Minneapolis plus Southern Suburbs
New Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Old Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Net Change |
Inc. Party |
Prognosis |
Incumbent |
SD59 |
D65.37 |
SD58 |
D68.65 |
R3.29 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Bobby Joe Champion (DFL:58B) |
59A |
D64.92 |
58A |
D63.37 |
D1.55 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Joe Mullery (DFL:58A) |
59B |
D65.8 |
58B |
D73.55 |
R7.74 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Open |
SD60 |
D58.29 |
SD59 |
D58.3 |
R.01 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Kari Dziedzic (DFL:SD59) |
60A |
D55.96 |
59A |
D55.79 |
D.16 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Dianne Loeffler (DFL:59A) |
60B |
D60.82 |
59B |
D60.69 |
D.13 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Phyllis Kahn (DFL:59B) |
SD61 |
D62.62 |
SD60 |
D63.85 |
R1.23 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Scott Dibble (DFL:SD60) |
61A |
DD65.39 |
60A |
D62.74 |
D2.65 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Frank Hornstein (DFL:60B); Marion Greene (DFL:60A) |
61B |
D59.64 |
60B |
D64.91 |
R5.28 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Paul Thissen (DFL:63A) |
SD62 |
D75.64 |
SD61 |
D78.65 |
R3.01 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Jeff Hayden (DFL:SD61) |
62A |
D78.02 |
61A |
D78.17 |
R.14 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Karen Clark (DFL:61A) |
62B |
DD73.75 |
61B |
D79.09 |
R5.33 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Susan Allen (DFL:61B) |
SD63 |
D58.52 |
SD62 |
D60.61 |
R2.09 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Patricia Torres Ray (DFL:SD62) |
63A |
D66.94 |
62A |
D66.03 |
D.91 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Jim Davnie (DFL:62A) |
63B |
D50.09 |
62B |
D55.52 |
R5.44 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Jean Wagenius (DFL:62B) |
SD50 |
D20.96 |
SD63 |
D34.21 |
R13.25 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Open, Ken Kelash (DFL:SD63) |
50A |
D27.96 |
63B |
D25.87 |
D2.09 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Linda Slocum (DFL:63B) |
50B |
D14.53 |
40B |
D12.23 |
D2.3 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Ann Lenczewski (DFL:40B) |
Minneapolis unsurprisingly lost a state house seat, as the previous map already featured a hybrid Minneapolis/suburban state house seat. But incumbent state House Minority Leader, Paul Thissen, was put into his own southwest Mpls seat, nonetheless, with the new 61B. The Uptown based seat, the new 61A, now picks up a few precincts further south, which spelt doom for recently elected Rep. Marion Greene, who lost to Rep. Frank Hornstein, even though she represents much more of the new district, currently. The eliminated Mpls seat meant that the new 50A needed a new state senate pairing, which logically set it with 50B, as the old iteration had 50B go "south of the river", as we call it, to pair up with a Dakota County suburban seat to form a state senate district. This has previously given the GOP a shot at the resulting state senate district, but with the new 50B paired up with an inner-ring suburban seat, the GOP has no shot here. But, this doesn't result in a gain for the DFL since the elimination of a state house seat in Minneapolis equates to this being a former Minneapolis held state senate seat.
St. Paul
New Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Old Dist. |
2008 Pres. |
Net Change |
Inc. Party |
Prognosis |
Incumbent |
SD64 |
D51.45 |
SD64 |
D50.4 |
D1.05 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Richard Cohen (DFL:SD64) |
64A |
D58.77 |
64A |
D57.41 |
D1.36 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Erin Murphy (DFL:64A |
64B |
D43.56 |
64B |
D43.56 |
0 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Michael Paymar (DFL:64B) |
SD65 |
D60 |
SD65 |
D59.96 |
D.04 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Sandra Pappas (DFL:SD65) |
65A |
D65.68 |
65A |
D67.43 |
R1.76 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Rena Moran (DFL:65A |
65B |
D54.99 |
65B |
D54.81 |
D.18 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Carlos Mariani (DFL:65B) |
SD66 |
D40.37 |
SD66 |
D55.91 |
R15.54 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
John Marty (DFL:SD54) ; Mary Jo McGuire(DFL:SD66) |
66A |
D30.79 |
54A |
D21.44 |
D9.35 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Alice Hausman (DFL:66B) |
66B |
D53.34 |
66A |
D54.58 |
R1.24 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
John Lesch (DFL:66A) |
SD67 |
D47.42 |
SD67 |
D46.11 |
D1.32 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Open |
67A |
D48.24 |
67A |
D25.78 |
D2.46 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Tim Mahoney (DFL:67A |
67B |
D46.69 |
67B |
D46.72 |
R.03 |
DFL |
Safe DFL |
Sheldon Johnson (DFL:67B) |
St. Paul also lost a state house seat, but luckily for state Rep. Alice Hausman, the DFLer she was paired with decided to retire prior to redistricting was finalized, so suburban 66A was hers to win. (66A now only contains three precincts in St. Paul proper.) The suburbanite state senator, John Marty for SD66, did beat the St. Paulite, and that's because Marty is the de facto liberal progressive leader in that chamber. But poor Mary Jo, she was ousted from legislative office after the last round of redistricting, as well.