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This is it folks. This is the final projections for all 201 legislative districts in Minnesota. The endorsements have been given, the final campaign finance reports are in, and the campaigns are winding up their last 5 day stretches. As in Part 1, the “toss-up” rating has been done away with. . Just for clarity, since there seems to be some discrepancy between terminology of ratings and percentages. Percentages are the odds the favored candidate will win:

Tilt D/R: 50.1%-60%
Lean D/R: 60.1-75%
Likely D/R: 75.1-99%
Safe D/R: <99%

District 1: Northwest Minnesota. This is a pretty balanced district. The lines didn't change much in redistricting. In 2008 both house seats were held by the DFL and in 2010 they were won by Republicans. The senate seat has been held by Leroy Stumpf since before I was born. Stumpf is running for reelection, and will be a shoo-in for it. He will face Thief River Falls mayor Steve Nordhagen who dispatched perennial candidate and Korean War veteran Jual Carlson. Nordhagen is a respectable candidate, but Stumpf is a legend in the area. Stumpf and Nordhagen spent about the same amount of money, but Stumpf chose not to empty his coffers and has 8 times the CoH as of 10/22. District 1A has freshman incumbent Dan Fabian has managed to not have a serious contende. A warm DFL body here cannot be 100% discounted, but Fabian looks likely to return to St. Paul. The Roseau area is fully owned by Polaris, and is certainly the more Republican of the two House districts. Over in 1B, Deb Kiel has not given off quite as good of an impression locally as Fabian has, and 1B is a lot less Republican friendly than 1A. Now, Theif River Falls City Councilman Marc DeMers is a decent candidate, and Kiel is rubbing a lot of people in Theif River Falls and East Grand Forks the wrong way, specifically with regards to LGA, which is a big deal in Theif River Falls. It has also come up in the campaign that she doesn’t actually live in town, so these cuts don’t affect her.  This has been an issue which Representative Kiel has been hit hard and often, and is the most important issue in voters’ minds in the district They both have spent a nearly identical 21,000 on the race. Incumbency can never be ignored, so Kiel is not dead in the water, but if I don’t feel she has even-money odds.

Senate: Likely D
House A: Likely R
House B: Tilt D*

District 2: This is essentially the Bemidji/Park Rapids district. It is best known for being the headwaters of the Mississippi River. Initially, I figured this race would end up being markedly different than it ended up being with candidates. But when the dust settled, Senator Rod Skoe faces Republican Denis Moser. Moser, from what I understand, is a very loud, brash, and confrontational individual. Senator Skoe is a lot like Colin Peterson, and has never pleased those on the far left, and actually has a higher NRA Rating (and the NRA endorsement) in the race. This is a rematch of 2010, and the outcome won’t be any different. 2A has another Republican freshman in an interesting spot. The cartographers could have done much worse to Representative Hancock, but there is only so much Republican territory in this part of the state. Roger Erickson, A retired teacher from one of the Republican areas of the district is running. A good portion of this district is the Red Lake Indian Reservation. But turnout on reservations is always low, and often unpredictable. If turnout is even 50%, this race won’t be close and Hancock will be a 1-term-wonder. Hancock hasn’t made any mistakes, but he is getting the doors blown off of him in fundraising. I give Hancock an edge based on incumbency, but it is a very weak edge. This would be toss-up if that ranking were still in use. Now, due to the new more Republican friendly 2A, that made 2B more DFL friendly with Park Rapids at its core. The woman that Hancock unseated in 2010 lives here, and it has no incumbent. The Republicans didn’t endorse in this race, and there was a very bloody primary between David Collins and the eventually winner, Steve Green. The Party is still fractured, and both sides remain bitter. The NRA and Chamber had both endorsed Collins. The NRA remains so bitter at Green that they refused to endorse him in the General election either. Granted he has an A- rating and Sailer has a B+ rating from the NRA. After the primary, Green’s campaign was flat broke, and their fundraising dried up, having raised only a total of 9,000 dollars for the entire cycle (almost all of which was before the primary) and has less than 200 bucks CoH. Sailer has raised over three times that, and didn’t even spend half of what she raised, looking forward to 2014. Brita Sailer should “sail” back to St. Paul for a 4th, non-consecutive term.

Senate: Likely D
House A: Tilt R
House B: Likely D*

District 3: Welcome to the northern side of the Iron Range and the BWCA. Incumbents Bakk, Murphy, and Dill should win by their customary landslides. This district is something like 95% White, and 70% Democratic. Good luck finding THAT anywhere else in the country.

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 4: This is essentially Moorhead and surrounding area. Longtime Moorhead Republican stalwart Morrie Lanning is retiring from district 4A.  Lanning is a good man, and he will be sorely missed in St. Paul. He got his biggest priority passed this year (the Vikings stadium), and decided to call it a political career, a career which started during the Vietnam War. Happy trails, Morrie. But, Lanning was holding a seat that no other Republican really has a prayer at holding, which is nearly coterminous with the liberal college town of Moorhead (directly across the river from Fargo) DFLer Ben Lien got the party endorsement, and is the prohibitive favorite going into election day. The crowded Republican field didn’t have any candidates have an inspiring resume. Emerging from this primary was Some Dude Travis Reimche. In the marginally less DFL (I say this tongue in cheek, as it is still incredibly Democratic turf) Paul Marquart looks to lock in his 7th term in the House (He won by a margin of nearly 50 points in 2010). In the Senate race, Keith Langseth opted to reture after 4 decades in St. Paul. Popular 10-year incumbent Representative Kent Eken is looking for a promotion in his stead. This is a very tough district for Republicans, but they did score a solid recruit in former Bullfalo Bill standout, Phil Hansen. Hansen has tried to buy this race outright, putting in a whopping 70,000 dollars into his campaign, making him the single-highest funded Republican candidate in the entire state. That being said, the state party and small donors have come up in a big way for Eken, and has near parity with him when it comes to money, bringing in 65,000 of his own. Additionally, Eken has the NRA endorsement in the race. It is just a hill too tall for a Republican here in all but the most perfect of storms. Raise your hand if you thought Moorhead Minnesota would have the most expensive legislative race in the state? I certainly didn’t

Senate: Likely D*
House A: Likely D*
House B: Likely D

District 5: The amalgam district. 5B is very much an Iron Range district, and 5A is decisively NOT. I honestly had no idea how the cards would fall when it came to candidates here. So many people were drawn in with other people, that it really was quite the trip seeing that musical chairs take place. I hold this district near and dear to my heart, as I have a lot of family and friends here. This district is one of the 3 or 4 I know better than any political subdivision anywhere. Alright, that’s enough about me and my sentiment for this district. On the senate side, incumbent Tom Saxhaug is the prohibitive favorite against fellow incumbent senator John Carlson. Carlson’s district was completely dismantled, and he lives on the far western edge in Bemidji, which is one of the DFL centers in this new district. The NRA is staying out of the race, as is their policy with two A-rated incumbents running against one another. Saxhaug is immensely popular in Grand Rapids. To Saxhaug’s credit, he is taking this race very seriously, spending money he had built up over previous cycles plus the $25,000 he raised this year and has outspent Carlson by 50%. There simply aren’t enough center to center right voters in Cass County to give Carlson much of a chance. On the House side, the picture is even murkier. 5A has one of the marquee matchups of the entire state. Two popular incumbents are running in a district that resembles neither of their current districts. The lean of the district is distinctly DFL (although much less so than 5B), but Howes is a as strong of a Republican you will find in North-Central Minnesota. He really comes with an unshakable base in Cass County that will be hard to beat. That being said Persell is no pushover himself, with a loyal base in Bemidji. Persell has outraised and outspent Howes, but the NRA went with the A rated Howes instead of the A- rated ersell. This will come down to Bemidji vs. Cass County, and the outcome won’t be known til at least election night. I am going to give the slightest edge to Howes based on length of tenure and NRA endorsement, but of all my predictions, I feel least confident about it. Don’t look now 5B has another pair of incumbents(Yes, 6 incumbents were thrown into the same senate district), in DFLer Tom Anzelc and Republican Carolyn McElfatrick. This is an Itasca County based district, and Alzelc is quite popular here. McElfatrick is no Larry Howes, but she is an incumbent. This district is much bluer than its next door neighbor, and there is no real source of Republican votes like there is next door. Much like next door, the A rated incumbent Anzelc got the NRA endorsement over the A- rated McElfatrick. Something tells me that the NRA endorsed in these races due to the likelihood of each candidate’s chances at winning. I also question differentiating any of these candidates when it comes to gun rights. It is hard to see Anzelc even in a close race. But incumbency is something, which is the only thing that keeps this ranking from pure Safe D. One big tealeaf on this race, both Anzelc and McElfatrick had raised similar amounts of money; McElfatrick has emptied her bankaccount on the campaign, whereas Anzelc is choosing to sit on over ten grand CoH.

Senate: Likely D
House A: Tilt R (This will be a fun one.)
House B: Likely D

District 6: Heart of the Iron Range. 27-year old Carly Melin will return to St. Paul for her first full term in 6A (she served the vast majority of this term following the special election to replace Ton Sertich). In 6B, there is another retirement that saddens me. Tom Rukavina is one of the nicest, fieriest, most sincere people you will ever meet. He has been a force in St. Paul for decades, and even though his seat will be filled, he won’t be replaced. Oddly, there was a Republican PRIMARY here, which no one can remember the last one of those in the Iron Range. Jesse Colangelo won the Republican primary. There was also a 3-way DFL primary for a lifetime seat. There was no party endorsement, But the primary itself was genial and young Jason Metsa won the primary. Interestingly there is a lawsuit going on about Colangelo falsely claiming to be the NRA endorsed candidate on the campaign trail. There is no official endorsement for the general election, but Colangelo is claiming that he is the de facto endorsee because he was the endorsee in the Republican primary. It is all trivial as this race won’t be close. David Tomassoni is the 12-year incumbent senator here, and was in the House before hand. He has a minor challenger in Brandon Anderson, though.

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D*

Disdtrict 7: Duluth. Duluth is a mini-San Francisco on the shore of Lake Superior, and the hub of the Iron Range. In the senate race, Roger Reinert will continue his tenure after succeeding now-Lt. Governor Yvonne Pretter-Solon. Representative Tom Huntley will be reelected in 7A with little fanfare. The real fireworks have been in 7B. 7B is an overwhelmingly Democratic district with an incumbent some people may have heard of, Kerry Gauthier. Representative Gauthier was caught with his pecker in a 17 year old boy at a truckstop shortly after the primary. There were lots of legal proceedings and people suing and writing in candidates and all sorts of other mumbo jumbo. Long story short, Fireman Erik Simonson successfully got Gauthier’s name off of the ballot and replaced it with his own. I believe that Duluth city councilman, and Gauthier’s arch-enemy Jay Fosle is forging ahead with a write-in campaign. Fosle is a Democrat, but very conservative by Duluth standards. Travis Silvers is making another run at this after getting his butt kicked by Gauthier in 2010. The race won’t be close, but it sure was interesting watching it play out.

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D*

District 8: Amy Klobuchar lost this district. That is all you really need to know about the political leanings of this area. In 8A, long time GOP Representative Bud Nornes is assured a spot back in St. Paul again. Senator Bill Ingerbrigtsen, a former Sherriff of Douglas Count should be safe given the political leanings of this district. However Dan Skogen, a former State Senator himself chose to run against his former colleague. Don’t get me wrong, Ingerbrigtsen is a heavy favorite. Ingerbrigtsen is not being caught flat footed and has spent 50,000 dollars in his reelection efforts in this blood red seat. Skogen has spent over 40,000, so it isn’t a huge of a discrepancy as one would think. However, district 8B is the home of one Mary Franson. Franson has been making headlines in less than flattering ways in her first term in the House. She is a lot like Michele Bachmann, except the ability to fundraise copious amounts of money. The word on the street is her presence has made this district much more competitive than it ought to be. Bob Cunniff has local backing, and is well known locally from his 3 decades as football coach of the largest high school and in the district. He also has his own show on a local radio station. He is as good of a candidate as the DFL could hope for here, as the bench is quite thin. Oddly, unlike her congressional counterpart, Franson has not set the world on fire with fundraising. She has been outraised by her opponent, Bob Cunniff. Even more oddly, Franson has burned through her entire warchest, while Cunniff is still sitting on over ten thousand dollars. I don’t know what to make of that last part, at all.

Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Lean R

District 9: This district didn't really exist before. But it is nominally Republican even at the local level. Although there certainly are DFLers than can and have won here. In the Senate race, there is a solid matchup in incumbent Republican Paul Gazelka, who is a freshman, but previously served in the House before being swept out in 2006. And Al Doty, who is a former State Rep, having won election twice in a very unfriendly district, before not being able to hold on against the 2010 Red Wave. The natural tilt of the district is marginally Republican, but the candidates are both top notch. Interestingly, both candidates have raised a lot of money, but only spent about 2/3 what they raised. Both candidates spent right around 35k, and Gazelka is sitting on 15k, and Doty on over 7k. Not sure why they haven’t both spent more, as this is a closely contested race. Conversely in 9A, there really aren’t any strong candidates. It is Some Dude vs. Some Dude. The district is the more Republican of the two House districts, and while Niles has outraised Anderson, it hasn’t been by much, and it is due to Niles “loaning” himself $10,000. Anderson is still sitting on a few thousand in the bank, perhaps as a sign of confidence. So there is a slight, but definite edge to Republican Mark Anderson. There is a similar story in 9B. Republican Ron Kresha is an unknown businessman that was running for the senate district before the lines were drawn and he was double bunked with Gazelka. On the DFL side, there is a living breathing office holder in the form of Pierz City Counselman Adrian Welle. This is the more DFL of the two districts, and locally is really closely divided, but Kresha has actually dominated the fundraising game, so I am going to give him the edge here.  

Senate: Lean R
House A: Lean R*
House B: Lean R*

District 10: Another new district: This is a really marginal one. Aitkin leans D, and Crow Wing leans R (locally, on both accounts). In the senate, there are 3 really unimpressive candidates. There are two DFLers and one Republican. Republican Carrie Ruud, a former partial-term Senator, is running on a culture warrior platform, the same one that got her voted out in 06. This plays well in some areas, but this may not be one of them. Mrs. Ruud has raised a total of 40,000 dollars for her campaign, but only spent about 60% of it. 240year old Taylor Stevenson won the DFL primary against the much older Ann Marcotte. Stevenson, in spite of his youth, has raised a respectable 34k for his campaign. Like Ruud, however, he sits on nearly half of what he raised. Why these two haven’t spent all their money is a little bit befuddling. Perhaps Stevenson is saving up for a run in 2014/2016? I don’t know, but I do give the edge to the former legislator. John Ward, the Representative in 10A is in good position against n unknown first-time candidate Chris Kellet. 10A is the more Republican of the two districts, but Ward has been representing the Brainerd area for 3 terms already. Over in the more DFL 10B, were some fireworks in the DFL primary.David Schaaf, the former chairman of the Government Operations committee was running for State House and got CRUSHED by 76-24 by 26-year old Joe Radinovich. Rodinovich followed that up by greatly outraising Republican Dale Lueck. I suspect this race won’t really be all that close considering how marginal the area is. Watch this Radinovich kid down the road, he has real potential.

Senate: Tilt R*
House A: Likely D
House B: Likely D*

District 11: This district is based south of Duluth. The northern part of the district has a decidedly Iron Range flavor, and the southern portion is North Woods, but no Iron Range (picture the Venn diagram). The DFL is absolutely dominant in Carlton County, and has a fair presence in the southern part of this district as well. In the senate, Tony Lourey won’t have any trouble on his reelection. There were charges of nepotism with regards to Lourey early on, as his mother used to represent his district, but that is long forgotten now. On the House side, there are two open seats. In 11A, it is going to go to Mike Sundin. In 11B, with the retirement of Bill Hilty, it becomes more competitive. The district still has a natural leftward lean, but it is certainly within reach for a Republican now. Former DFL representative Tim Faust is carrying Team Blue’s torch in the race, and he will face the survivor of a contentious primary, Ben Wiener. Both candidates are pro-gun, but Wiener got the NRA endorsement. Faust has the funding advantage, and has not spent all of his campaign money on the race.

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D*
House B: Lean D*

District 12: This is old school Farmer Labor country, specifically from the Farmer faction. This is Peterson Country.  Currently, this is one area that the DFL prospects dim as time goes on. Politics isn’t a zero sum game, but as the DFL gains in some of the suburbs, the “F” faction of the DFL is dying off. Boy Wonder (can I say that even though he is nearly 40?) Torrey Westrom is looking for a promotion to the senate. Westrom was first elected to the House in 1996, at the ripe old age of 23. Westrom is a prohibitive favorite in the senate race. Westrom has a compelling life story, as he was rendered completely blind in a tragic accident years ago. Both candidates are A-rated by the NRA, but Westrom, being a sitting politician, gets the endorsement. Some serious money has flown into this race, with the candidates raising nearly 120,000 combined. Neither candidate spent more than roughly half of what they have raised. Schultz sits on a 20k+ warchest, and Westrom sits on over 30k. Given the financial advantage, NRA endorsement, and name recognition, I am fairly certain Westrom will win. On the House side in 12A, Elbow Lake mayor Jay McNamar (DFL) is running against Brandon City Councilman Scott Dutcher. Elbow Lake is twice the size of Brandon, although neither is terribly large. The IP is running a candidate here that I know nothing about, but as always in Minnesota, the IP candidate can sway a race. There are a bunch of variables here, but what is swaying me is the fact that McNamar currently represents a large portion of the district, and while both candidates have raised nearly identical amounts, McNamar  has 7,000 in the bank, while Dutcher has less than half that. 12B is much much much more Republican than 12A, and Paul Anderson hasn’t done anything to upset voters. He is safe

Senate: Likely R*
House A: Tilt D*
House B: Safe R

District 13: This is more farm county surrounding St. Cloud. This should be Republican turf, and for the most part it is. However there is a guy by the name of Larry Hosch that doesn't believe it, and he won in spite of this. Unfortunately, Hosch has hung it up (for now). He is young, aggressive, and an 8 year member despite being the ripe old age of 34. He will be back in politics I am sure, but it won’t be this cycle. I suspect he is revving up for a congressional run in MN-7 once Peterson hangs it up. Republican Jeff Howe should run away with this district, as DFLer Rich Bohannan never really made a play at the district. Senate President Michelle Fischbach is in no danger. And neither is freshman Representative Tim O’Driscoll.

Senate: Safe R
House A: Likely R*
House B: Safe R

District 14: Republicans are not going to be pleased with this. Republicans pray and pray that St. Cloud will be diluted among the local Republican areas. That didn't happen. In the Senate Tarryl Clark chose to continue with her feckless carpetbag campaign in MN-8 instead of running for her old seat against freshman John Peterson. Instead, Peterson drew much lower level opposition in the form of businessman/accountant Jerry McCarter. McCarter has raised a fair amount of money for his efforts, but Peterson has raised more. This is not safe for Peterson, but this makes it a lot harder for the DFL to take him out. In 14A, Steven Gottwalt (GOP) is a strong incumbent in a marginal center-right district. This district really does not resemble his current district, even though the lines didn’t change much on a map, where the lines land matter here.  In 14B, King Banaian (yes, that is his REAL name) is facing a tough reelection bid in an unfriendly district. Banaian is facing a young untested opponent, but Zach Dorholt is getting a surprising amount of institutional backing. Baniaian has outraised Dohort, but this is one race where I am cautiously optimistic about for the Democrats, if for no other reason the political leanings of St. Cloud proper, and the fact that the fundraising is not all that lopsided.

Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Tilt D*

District 15: This is a Republican area, and the DFL didn’t put up any strong candidates. Brown, Newberger, and O’Neill are all going to win in walks. Only Jim Newberger is not an incumbent, but that doesn’t matter in this case.

Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R*

District 16: This is basically a southern bank Minnesota River Valley district, and it really can't be compared to the old districts, so it's basically new. 16 A is ancestrally DFL, but is represented by a Republican. Marty Siefert represented this area for a while, so it is certainly not adverse to Republicans. The DFL scored another big candidate from another era here. Former Representative Ted Suss is looking to make a comeback after a 34 year sabbatical. He will take on freshman Republican Gary Dahms. This is friendly turf for Dahms, so he SHOULD win, but Suss keeps it from being safe. It should be noted that Suss initially declared to run in 16A, but upon the death of Gary Kubly, and the drawing of the new districts, he went for senate instead. The DFL didn’t put up any strong candidates for either House seat, so incumbent Republicans Chris Swedzinski and Paul Torkelson are safe.

Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 17: We cross the river to the north side of the Minnesota River here. This is substantially more DFL leaning than the southern bank. In the senate, this will have one of the marquee matchups of the cycle. Lyle Koenen, who was a state representative before winning the special election to replace the late Gary Kubly. Koenen faced a harsh primary, but was ultimately victorious. This race will go down to the wire, even though the district leans DFL slightly, Gimse is not one of the weak freshmen Republicans swept in with the 2010 tide. Both Koenen and Gimse are NRA A rated incumbents, so there is no endorsement there. Both candidates have raised a bunch of money, but GImse has raised and spent slightly more, so I am going to give this a tilt in his direction. 29 year-old 2-term incumbent rep. Andrew Falk (DFL) is running for reelection against unknown Republican Tim Miller. Falk is not as pro-gun as a lot of outstate DFLers, but he is so confident in this race, he has chose to only spend ¼ of his warchest. I don’t think it will come to bit him in this ass, but one never knows.  He is likely safe in the more DFL friendly of the two House seats, however. In the other (evenly divided) 17B, freshman Bruce Vogel is running for reelection against teacher Mary Sawatzky. She won her primary against Jessica Rohloff, which I found to be fairly surprising.. This is one of the other districts the IP is playing a part by nominating 24-year old Zach Liebl. Leibl doesn’t have a resume to speak of, but the IP line in Minnesota is usually good for a handful of percentage points even if no one has ever heard of you. I suspect the winner will be a plurality decision. And that plurality decision will likely go to the person that won the cash race, and that was Mary Sawatzky.

Senate: Tilt R
House A: Likely D
House B: Tilt D*

District 18: This is where the exurbs meet the cornfields. This is prime Republican territory. One interesting candidate threw her hat in the ring, and that is DNC member and 1998 DFL candidate for State Auditor Nancy Larson in 18A. 18A is the slightly less blood red of the two. Still, it won’t be enough to unseat Dean Urdahl from his 10-year perch. Representative Glenn Gruenhagen is safe, as is Senator Scott Newman.

Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 19: This is a district the Republicans tried to eliminate. The courts didn't slice and dice, and left Mankato with representation. All 3 incumbents are DFLers, and all 3 were elected at the same time in 2006 and have been reelected with little difficulty since. I was hoping that Republicans would pump some money into these races to deplete their limited resources, but alas, Senator Sheran and Representative Morrow didn’t even draw token Republican opponents. And Representative Brynaert drew a Some Dude opponent in the Mankato-proper district. Brynaert has an F rating from the NRA, and her opponent, Thad Shunkwiler has an A- rating. Yet the NRA did not endorse Shunkwiler. That goes to shower you what his chances are.

Senate: Safe D
House A:  Safe D
House B:  Safe D

District 20. The northern portion of this district is some far flung exurbs(A), and the southern part (B) is actually DFL leaning farmland. Overall the senate district should be marginally DFL, and this area had a DFL senator 2 years ago in Kevin Dahle, and he is running for his old job back in an open seat. The Republicans nominated an interesting candidate here in FBI agent Mike Dudley. Both Dahle and Dudley have spent 50 grand a piece on the race. I have to give this open seat to the former senator on name recognition and campaign history, but it’s going to be close. This race should prove to be interesting, depending on how things shake out. Kelby Woodard won a nailbiter 37-vote victory over David Bly in 2010. Interestingly, Representative Woodard has been rewarded with a more Republican version of this district. Incidentally, this drew Bly into a more DFL friendly version of the district. Neither Woodard nor Bly drew serious opposition in their respective races.

Senate: Tilt D*
House A:  Likely R
House B: Likely D*

District 21: This is very marginal Republican territory overall. The DFL really didn’t get any great candidates here. The districts are not out of reach conceptually, but it would take a DFL wave to take the seats of Representatives Tim Kelly or Steve Drazkowski, or Senator John Howe.

Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Likely R

District 22: This is old school DFL farmer  territory, but some of the areas have shifted  intensely the other direction. The senate race should be interesting with a mayor-v-mayor matchup in Worthington mayor Alan Oberloh (D) taking on former Luverne mayor Bill Weber (R). Worthington is the largest city in the district, with Luverne being 1/3 its size. But, the district is now Republican leaning, which should put Weber over the top. Plus, Weber has outraised Oberloh by quite a bit, so this is in lean territory, not tilt territory. Neither Republican representatives Joe Schomacker or Rod Hamilton drew serious DFL opponents.

Senate: Lean R*
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 23: This is the south-central Minnesota district along the Iowa border. 23A is one of the most Republican districts in Outstate Minnesota, and Bob Gunther will win in a walk.  23B would have been competitive simply based on inumbent Tony Cornish being a very unpleasant human being. But the DFL didn’t put up a candidate in the district at all, the only such empty DFL slot in all of outstate Minnesota. Interestingly, a guy by the name of Paul Marquardt is running for the DFL on the senate side. Not to be confused with Paul Marquart, the State Representative in District 4B. Marquardt is not a special candidate or anything, but the name was worth mentioning. He will lose to Senator Jilue Rosen by a lopsided margin.

Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B : Safe R

District 24: This is a locally DFL leaning area, with an open senate seat with Republican Mike Parry trying to take on Tim Walz. I was surprised to see such low-level candidates go for senate, with only Owatana School Board member Vicki Jensen holding political office. Jensen faces Some Dude Vern Swedin in the senate race. Jensen had a modest fundraising advantage as of the campaign report deadline, but not much. Her position as an elected official is the difference in the race in my eyes. In 24A, there are two candidates that I know next to nothing about. Republican John Petersberg and DFLer Craig Breden Petersberg has a slight money advantage, and the NRA backing, but that is all that really all that separates these two.   Not really sure what to make of that race. Conversely, Patti Fritz (DFL) in 24B has never been an outrageously popular, nor has she won in blowouts, but she has always won. Fritz has a Republican opponent in Dan Kaiser, but he hasn’t really done anything of note, so I am going to chalk Fritz up for yet another marginal win on the cusp of Lean/Likely.

Senate: Tilt D*
House A:  Tilt R*
House B: Lean D

Districts 25 and 26. I do this together, as they are essentially mirror images of each other. 25B and 26A are Rochester, and aren't exactly prime pickup opportunities for the Republicans, although DFL representative Tina Liebling  in 26A drew a Rochester School Board Member, Breanna Bly (unsure of a relation to David) for an opponent. Representative Kim Norton in 25B has a token challenger, and has chosen to bank most of her fundraising haul. Olmsted County used to be a Republican stronghold, but it has shifted hard and fast towards the DFL recently. 25A and 26B are the surrounding areas around Rochester, and are currently Republican seats. Republican incumbent Mike Benson has been outraised by his DFL opponent Patrick Stallman in 26B. I believe Stallman to be the favorite now, and I am confident enough that this is Lean D not Tilt D at the now. Duane Quam in 25A has had similar fundraising problems to Benson. But Quam’s district is slightly more Republican, and Vossen has not had the fundraising success than Stallman has had. Quam is more likely than not to win this race, but he is not going to be secure long term, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lose this cycle. As for the senate, this is going to be interesting. District 25 Senator David Senjem is the Senate Majority Leader by default. After the sex scandal that cost former Majority Leader Amy Koch her career, there was a desperate power vacuum in the Republican caucus. There was a contentious battle for power. Senjem was the Minority Leader up until the 2010 elections, but the tea-powered freshman wanted a much more confrontational “true believer” type leader, and they chose Koch over the more establishment Senjem. Senjem is in a very unique position, because Republicans don’t really like him, and Democrats don’t really dislike him, especially compared to people like Koch. So while this race is flush with cash, I don’t think DFLer Judy Ohly seriously believe she is going to win, and is instead building a 5-figure warchest for when either the 69 year old Senjem retires, or he is taken out from his right flank. Senjem is almost certain to win this time around, but come 2016, I have no idea. However, prospects do not look so bright for freshman Republican senator Carla Nelson. Nelson is a firebrand, and has had a bit of a rough go of it in her first term in St. Paul. She has raised quite a bit of money, but she is a polarizing figure, so her opponent Ken Moen has also raised a lot of money. I would not be one bit surprised to see Nelson go down on Tuesday, but as an incumbent, I am giving her the slightest of slight edges.

Senate 25: Likely R
Senate 26: Tilt R
House 25A: Lean R
House 25B: Likely D
House 26A: Likely D
House 26B: Lean D*

Districts 27. This is part of the Southern Minnesota DFL strong area. It is a lot like eastern Iowa in that regards. I like to give the benefit of the doubt to incumbents, but Murray is in a really tough spot for the Republican to live. Bundlers have come to his rescue and given him lots of money, but he is facing a well-funded challenger himself in Shannon Savick. 27B incumbent Democratic Representative Jeanne Poppe has only token Republican opposition, but seems to be asleep at the wheel in terms of fundraising overall.  DFLer Dan Sparks is young energetic and popular in the senate and has a big financial advantage over his Republican opponent Linden Andersen.

Senate:  Safe D  
House A: Tilt D*
House B: Likely D

District 28: this is the other part of the southern Minnesota DFL area. The GOP wave hit here hard, and brought in a couple Republicans in a tough area for Republicans to be. It would take another 2010 to repeat that performance, and I just don't see that in the cards. In an open seat situation, these would all be likely DFL seats. I think I am being generous to Senator Jeremy Miller and Representative Gregory Davids( 28B) because incumbency matters. Lots and lots of money has been pumped into the river counties here, and I think that Davids has just enough extra cash to just barely get him over the finish line, while Miller will lose because he does not have said financial advantage. Gene Pelowski Sr. is in 28A, and has been since the mid-80s, and now his son, Gene Pelowski Jr. is running to succeed him. I don’t think a lot of people will realize that he is the son and not the father, which certainly can’t hurt Jr.

Senate: Lean D*
House A: Likely D*
House B: Tilt R

District 29: Centered in some of the western exurbs centered around Buffalo. This is one of the most Republican districts in the state. These districts likely won’t be challenged at all. Representative Bruce Anderson is going to become Senator Bruce Anderson after 18 years in the lower chamber. Tea Partier Marion O’Neill looks to have a good shot at the slightly-less-Republican 29A, but the DFL has lined up behind long time police officer Barrett Chrissis, and the AFL-CIO is actually putting resources at this district that does not show up on campaign finance reports. Additionally, Chrissis has kept financial parity with O’Niell, but it likely won’t be enough The IP is also playing here, and has a small chance to sway the outcome.. Joe McDonald, who succeeded Tom Emmer in the House, will have no trouble in 29A

Senate: Safe R*
House A: Safe R
House B: Lean R*

District 30: Much like district 29, but even more Republican and centered around St. Michael/Albertville and Elk River. Current State Rep (and former SoS before being dispelled by Mark Ritchie) Mary Kiffmeyer wants a promotion, and should get it. Elk River city councilman Nick Zerwas will get a ticket to St. Paul in 30A, David Fitzsimmons will get his in 30B.

Senate: Safe R*   
House A: Safe R*
House B: Safe R*

District 31: This is the part of Anoka County that makes Anoka County Republican. The rest of the county is actually pretty marginal, but this area is blood red exurbs. Senator Michelle Benson, Representative Tom Hackbarth (31B), and Kurt Daudt (31A) all officially have opponents, but they are all token in nature.

Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 32: This is a district that has some of my Republican friends groaning. They really REALLY wanted this district to be split vertically and extended northward and if done right, could have helped in district 11 for Team Red. Courts didn’t go along with that. This essentially a newly Republican area centered in Chisago and Isanti Counties. Believe it or not, this area was represented by Democrats just 2 years ago. The Democrats have an interesting candidate for senate in the form of Jeske Noordgraaf (That is an awesome name, ain’t it) and she is a veterinarian that is Chairman of Sunrise Township (essentially a mayor) and Sunrise township is quite Republican. Current (and former) senator Sean Nienow is up for reelection after recapturing his old seat from Rick Olseen in 2010. I have to give a pretty big edge to Nienow though. And former senator Rick Olseen is running against freshman Republican Bob Barrett, who got his seat from DFLer Jeremy Kalin, who opted to retired in 2010. Follow all that? This is a musical chairs district for sure. Democrats still controlled this area before 2010, but few areas in the state have moved harder faster away from the DFL than here. That being said, it takes more than 1 cycle to completely write off an area like this, and Olseen is tough, has pocketed quite a bit of money, and has been a fixture in Chisago County politics since his first election in 1990. I am actually going to go out on a limb and take Olseen over Barrett in a razor-thin race in 32B. In 32A, there is a surprisingly low dollar affair for being an open seat. Neither candidate has cracked the 20,000 dollar mark. And the NRA is staying out of it. It’s a Republican district, so I am giving and edge to Brian Johnson over Paul Gammel, but it is not from a position of strength on Johnson’s part.In the senate race

Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R*
House B: Tilt D*

District 33: Money Money Money Money. This includes the wealthiest areas of the entire state around Lake Minnetonka, plus exurbs not around the lake. The exceedingly wealthy in Minnesota lean Republican but not to the same level they do in other states, and the exurbanites in district 33B are as conservative as the ones in 29 and 30. The Republican electorate is so conservative in this area that Some Dude David Osmek beat 2-term Representative Connie Doepke for the party endorsement because apparently she was insufficiently conservative or something. Osmek won the primary and moves into the general election. Jerry Hertaus is looking like a lock in the absurdly Republican 33A, and incumbent Steve Smith was another one that got big by the Tea bug. Smith is actually a fairly moderate Republican, unlikely Doepke, so this primary was at least within reason. Smith lost to self-proclaimed “Tea Party Organizer” Cindy Pugh. No Republican should ever lose this district, but Pugh is WAY too the right of even this district, so there is a tiny chance she loses, but it is not a big chance, mind you.  

Senate: Safe R*
House A: Safe R*
House B: Likely R*

District 34: Maple Grove. In terms of raw vote totals, Maple Grove is the place Republicans need to run up the margins to be competitive statewide. Speaker Zellers represents 34B, and isn’t in any trouble. Neither are Representative Joyce Peppin and Senator Warren Limmer.

Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 35: This district has me scratching my head a little bit. Tea Party Wunderkind Branden Petersen is looking for a quick promotion to the senate as a freshman at the ripe old age of 26, but he is throwing elbows around in his district in his first term, and is not a shoo-in. He has been grossly outraised by his Democratic opponent, Peter Perovich. I really think that Petersen has gotten himself in over his head, but the lean of the district makes it a toss-up in my eyes. And he being the sitting representative gives him the smallest of edges. 14-year Republican incumbent Jim Abler it holding down the fort in 35A, and 2-term Republican incumbent Peggy Scott is doing the same in 35B.

Senate: Tilt R*
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 36: This is DFL area along the river in the NW suburbs. There was a really weird situation with the senate district here in 2010 around octogenarian Leo Foley. It is hard to see Benjamin Kruse catching lightning in a bottle twice. As of this posting, Ben Kruse is the only candidate that has not filed his campaign finance report. From what I hear, this is fairly indicative of how disorganized Kruse’s campaign has been. He is facing Anoka-Hennepin School District Chairman John Hoffman. Due to when and how the lines were drawn, the Anoka Hennepin School District is absolutely massive, having more students than all of Minneapolis. Hoffman has filed his report (all reports were due Monday) and has raised about 50 grand to unseat Kruse in this blue district. I suspect that Hoffman will be sworn in come January. In the House, DFLer Denise Dittrich is hanging it up after 4 terms in 36A. Grace Baltich is likely to replace her. In 36B, DFLer Mellissa Hortman is running for a 4th term. The IP is playing in 36B, so that adds a little X-factor there

Senate: Likely D*
House A: Likely D*
House B: Likely D

District 37: Blaine and Spring Lake Park. Blaine leans Republican now, but it used to be a DFL stronghold, and Spring Lake Park is a center-left suburb that swings violently with the tide. This district is also one of the strongest IP areas in the entire state. In the senate freshman Republican Pam Wolf is facing former State representative (circa 2000) Alice Johnson in the senate district. Initially, I gave the edge narrowly to Johnson, as this is a district that Obama will win and Klobuchar will CRUSH in. But Johnson has since opened up a 2:1 fundraising advantage over the incumbent, and I hear that she is running a much better campaign than Wolf. 37A is the more DFL friendly of the two House districts, and 75-year old former State Representative Jerry Newton is coming out of retirement to face current Republican Senate Staffer Mandy Benz. Much like the senate race, at first I gave the edge to the veteran politico in the friendly district based on fundamentals. But as the race progressed, it has become very clear that Benz is behind, way behind. She has been outraised something like 3:1. In the more Republican 37B, Tim Sanders is a strong incumbent, but he drew a primary opponent from the right. Unlike his collegauges in district 30, the primary voters here are not as conservative, and Sanders won. Since Sanders won the primary, I have moved this race from Likely to Safe R. Obama and Klobuchar will likely carry the district, but that doesn’t matter here.

Senate: Likely D*
House A: Likely D*
House B: Safe R

District 38: This district is sort of odd. In the house, Majority Leader Matt Dean is in no trouble, and neither is 24-year incumbent Representative Linda Runbeck in the other house seat. In the senate seat, Republican Roger Chamberlain is a freshman who succeeded a DFLer for the seat. But it really was unlikely that Tim Henderson is able to capture the same DFL spirit that former Senator Rummel had. And as it turned out, that was partially true. Henderson to his credit has kept financial parity. But unfortunately for Henderson that won’t be enough in such a district, and Chamberlin looks to be heading towards reelection

Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 39: Eastern Washington County. The Southern half is dominated by Blue Stillwater, with the northern half of the district dominated by Red Forest Lake. Republican sophomore Senator Ray Vandeveer decided against running in this new district. There was a Republican primary between Eric Langness and Karin Housley, which Housley prevailed. Neither one of them had any electoral experience. And Housley is relatively unknown. The DFL got a dynamite candidate in the form of former 2-term DFL representative Julie Bunn. Bunn started off as the favorite here given her experience and unsettled Republican field. Then she turned her energy towards fundraising and WOW, she pulled a best-in-the-state haul of nearly $80,000. The district is inherently swingy, and I would not be terribly surprised to see a Housey pull off the upset, but Bunn is the clear favorite. In 39A, the Forest Lake district, 3-term GOP Representative Bob Dettmer seems poised to win his 4th. In the Stillwater-based district Freshman Republican Kathy Lohmer who unseated Bunn by a narrow plurality victory in 2010 is running against a no name DFL businessman Tom DeGree. DeGree has actually outraised Lohmer by a good amount, but both Lohmer and DeGree are sitting on many thousands of dollars in the bank accounts. I am not sure why neither candidate has spent everything they could on this race. Given the nature of the district, and the over 3:2 fundraising advantage I think this DeGree fellow will find himself in St. Paul. Incumbency matters, but this is a tough district for a Republican to hold in a 2-way race, and in non-2010 elections.

Senate: Lean D*
House A: Safe R
House B: Lean D*

District 40: Brooklyn Park. Other than Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth, Brooklyn Park gives the DFL the highest net vote total out of any city in the state. Safe DFL all around. In fact, no Republicans filed in the Senate seat against future senator Chris Eaton, or 40A (which is the slightly-less DFL portion of the senate district) against current Representative Michael Nelson. Incumbent Debra Histrom in 40B got a token Republican opponent in Rich Cushing.

Senate: Safe D*
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 41: Columbia Heights, Fridley, and New Brighton. These are some of the bluest inner ring suburbs you’re going to find. No Republicans will be a serious challenge here. I graduated high school in this district. I actually graduated with Representative Caroline Laine’s (41A) youngest daughter. Representative Laine was a school board member at the time. Interestingly, Tim Utz, the 2010 Republican candidate for this district is mounting a Constitution Party challenger to Laine, along with another Republican by the name of Laura Palmer. Additionally Connie Bernardy is going to St. Paul as a freshman in 41A, and Senator Barb Goodwin will be back for a second term in the upper chamber, after some time as a representative earlier.

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D*
House B: Safe D

District 42: Marginally DFL area in the north, and strong DFL area is the south. The now-defunct Ramsey County Vikings Stadium proposal would have put the new stadium smack dab in the middle of this district. Instead, the stadium will be built in Downtown Minneapolis, FWIW. On the senate side, 4-term state rep Bev Scalze is taking this new open seat as an opportunity for a promotion. She drew a weak opponent in the form of April King. Mrs. King does not seem to have much of a shot, as she is running in an unfriendly district, has no political experience, and was badly outraised by Representative Scalze. On the House side, I am actually excited for the candidate in the less-blue 42A. Dr. Barb Yarusso is a graduate of my alma mater (both high school and college). She is a brilliant engineer, and a really likable woman. She has good connections to fundraising sources in the science and technology world to boot. Dr. Yarusso is facing off against accountant and religious activist Russ Bertsch. This district favors the DFL, although not as much as 42B, but Yarusso has widely outraised Bertsch. Oddly, Bertsch only spent 7,000 bucks on the campaign, even though he rose significantly more than that. In 42B, a much younger professor Ike Isaacson is holding the DFL mantle. He is facing off against a fellow fresh face Ken Rubenzer, a Republican businessman. Rubenzer’s campaign never really got off the ground, and this race has been assured since at least early summer. This district is just a bridge too far for a Republican to win, especially with a DFL political strategist and a Republican political novice.

Senate: Likely D*
House A: Likely D*
House B: Safe D*

District 43: This is a district made up of inner and second ring suburbs to the north and east of St. Paul. It is a lot like district 42, in the fact that 43A in the north is marginally DFL, and 43B is strongly DFL with the senate seat a combination thereof. Chuck Wiger has been the DFL senator for this area since the 1996 elections, so he isn’t going anywhere. In 43A there was a contested DFL primary, with the party endorsed candidate Peter Fischer against lawyer Bob Hill. Due to the expensive nature of the primary (Hill is wealthy and dumped his own money into the race), Republican Stacey Stout had a CoH advantage. Stout has actually outraised Fischer, but she has spent less than Fischer. I am not sure if that is out of confidence or weakness. Stout seems to have her act and campaign together, which is a rarity in the MNGOP these days, so she will be a formidable opponent. The district still leans DFL, but overwhelmingly. But Stout’s campaign and fundraising prowess leads me to believe this race is closer than I had first envisioned. In 43B, 8-year incumbent DFL representative Leon Lillie is running for reelection, and is all but assured another term in the bluer of these two House districts

Senate: Safe D
House A: Tilt D*
House B: Safe D

District 44: Rich suburbs (but not really exurbs). Plymouth is a Republican stronghold. And Minnetonka is a pretty DFL city. Norminally Republicans should win this area. But DFL senator Terri Bonoff (who has been courted repeatedly to take on Erik Paulsen in MN-3) has been the senator here since 2005. Bonoff is about as strong of a candidate as you’re going to get in Minnesota on the DFL side. That being said, she drew former Tim Pawlenty Chief of Staff David Gaithier. The well-connected Gaithier has had no trouble raising money for his run. Republicans obviously have to be happy with this recruit, but Bonoff is going to be very tough to beat, even in this kind of turf. Bonoff raised a comparable amount to Bunn over in Stillwater (79k) so she still had a fundraising edge over Gaithier. Bonoff took her foot off the gas and after spending nearly 60k, still has over 30k in the bank. 44A is the Republican part of this district, and Sarah Anderson hasn’t made any real missteps in her 6 years in the seat, she is safe. At only 40 years old, Anderson may have a future in higher office down the road and would be a solid candidate to replace Paulsen if he chooses to run for higher office. In 44B, DFLer John Benson is looking for his 4th term, much like Anderson. His road is not quite as friendly as Johnson’s, but he shouldn’t have much of an issue against Republican businessman Mark Stefan.

Senate: Likely D
House A: Safe R
House B: Likely D

District 45: Cystal and New Hope. These are more working class inner suburbs. The Republicans got token candidates here. For reference, Senator Ann Rest has been elected without incident since 1984, and Representative Lyndon Carlson since 1972. There is an open seat in 45B, but 45B is the more DFL of the two seats, and Mike Freiberg has a seat for life if he wants it, ala Carlson and Rest. Safe DFL all around, no campaigns needed

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D*

District 46: St. Louis Park and Hopkins. St. Louis Park has a large liberal Jewish population (including the Franken family), and Hopkins is a center-left upper-middle class suburb. The DFL has strong incumbents and a tailwind here. Outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul proper, this is probably the most liberal district in the state. Senator Ron Latz, and Representatives Steve Simon, and Ryan Winkler will be reelected by blowout margins against three no-name candidates. Interesting fact, 46B Republican nominee David Arvidson actually LOST the primary in August. Another candidate, Paul Scofield had withdrawn from the race before the primary and endorsed Arvidson. This shows just how far behind Republicans are in this district.

Senate Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 47: (Does anyone else get annoyed having to jump back and forth across the metro to follow the numbers numerically???) . Republican vote sink in the SW exurbs. The DFL has exactly zero presence here. The DFL didn’t field a candidate against Joe Hoppe in 47B, and Ernie Leidiger in 47A drew a token opponent. The senate race will be interesting, because apparently Deputy Senator Majority Leader pissed off someone, as a bomb-thrower activist kept her from even getting her party’s endorsement for the seat. We go to a primary here with lots and lots of outside involvement with the RedState types backing Schwichtenberg, and the establishment backing Ortman. It was fun to watch the show from afar, in a schadenfreude sort of way. However, once the dust settled Ortman was the victor, and she is safe in her Chanhassen seat.

Senate Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 48: The southern part of this district is fairly Republican Eden Prairie (This is Erik Paulsen’s stomping grounds), but the northern part is clearly center-left portions of Minnetonka. The senate seat is out of reach for the DFL, as David Hann has been an inoffensive and effective legislator for the last 10 years. 48B is 100% safe for Representative Jennifer Loon. But 48A is can’t be considered anything other than a toss-up. It is DFL-leaning, and has been represented by the DFL for quite a few years, but Republican Kirk Stensrud was swept in with the Red Wave in 2010, and Representative Stensrud is in for quite the political brawl with Hopkins school board member Yvonne Selcer in the center-left 48A. Given the fact that Selcer has outraised Stensrud 50,000 to under 30,000, coupled with the left leaning territory, I am giving the edge the Selcer.

Senate: Safe R
House A: : Lean D*
House B: Safe R

District 49: Edina and west Bloomington. The western part of Bloomington is marginal, while the eastern part is quite Blue. Edina is actually center-right. It requires more ink than one diary should contain to fully describe all of the quirky things about these districts. But here is the down and dirty version: Edina was represented by an Arne Carlson-esque Republican Ron Erhardt in the legislature from 1990-2008. In 2008 Erhardt was primaried from the right by Keith Downey. Downy went on to win 2 terms in the house, and is now running for senate. Erhardt is back looking for his old seat as a DFLer, after leaving the Republican Party. Downey’s old house seat is more Republican than the senate seat he is seeking, and he is facing a bright young Puerto Rican lawyer Melisa Franzen. Freakish amounts of money have poured into this race. Both candidates have raised large amounts of money, and outside spending has been rampant in the area. I don’t even live in the district, and I see nothing but Downey and Franzen ads on tv. Given the nature of the ads, neither candidate is all that comfortable with where they are at, as they are hard-hitting attack ads. Given Downey’s psotion as a Representative in the area, I give him a small edge, but only a small one. Obviously both sides are funning hard for this one. In his old house district, now numbered 49A, it is hard to say what will happen given Erhardt’s strong campaign and the Republicans’ adequate but unimpressive nominee Bill Glahn. Both candidates have raised about 50,000, but Erhardt has greatly taken his foot off the gas weeks ago, and sits on over 30,000 dollars. I think this is a sign of strength, but I am not 100% convinced of that. This really is uncharted territory for the Republican-turned-Democrat. 49B is about as politically even district as you are going to find anywhere. Republican Paul Mazorol had a tumultuous short tenure in the House, and instead of facing a rematch with the man he edged in 2010, has opted to leave politics all together. Former DFL Representative Paul Rosenthal was then left without an opponent, so the GOP scrambled and found a lady by the name of Terry Jacobson to run, but as far as I can tell she has no experience in the political realm at all. Rosenthal is feeling pretty good about his campaign, even with the marginal nature of the district. He has currently socked away over $25,000 for his impending reelection campaign in 2014.

Senate: Tilt R*
House A: Lean D*
House B: Likely D*

District 50: Eastern Bloomington and Richfield. I actually moved to this district earlier this year. I would be surprised if Republicans came close to winning anything here. It is quite liberal. The IP is playing in 50A, but I am not sure how serious they are about that race. Melissa Halverson Wiklund, Linda Slocum, and Ann Lencezewski will all be in St Paul in January. These are three very liberal women.

Senate: Safe D*
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 51: Burnsville and Eagan. This is really swingy territory, and I expect both parties to control all 3 of these seats at one point or another through the decade. All 3 seats were held by the DFL prior to 2010 (this is the old 38), and all 3 are held by Republicans now. For the decade, these will remain toss-ups regardless of who controls them. But for 2012 we have a rematch of the 2010 Senate card with former senator Jim Carlson taking on current senator Ted Daley for his hold. Daley has outraised Carlson by a few thousand dollars. More indicatively, Carlson has spent all of his money, while Daley still has 17 thousand in the bank. Advantage: Daley. In the ever so slightly bluer 51A we have another rematch with former rep Sandra Masin taking on current rep Diane Anderson. The reverse of the senate district, Masin has been storing money, likely for 2014. I think it’s pretty safe to say that Masin is ahead at the moment and is comfortable in her position.  In the slightly redder 51B Representative Doug Wardlow dodged a bullet when the man that used to occupy his seat, Mike Obermueller chose to run against John Kline instead of seeking a rematch. Political neophyte Laurie Halverson was picked by the DFL in his stead. She raised quite a bit of money for someone with no real political experience. And actually, she is greatly outraised Wardlow. Wardlow, like Daley, is stockpiling money, I believe this to be a sign of strength, but this has resulted in Halverson outspending him nearly 2:1. Advantage: Wardlow, but I don’t think he is in as strong of a position as he may believe.

Senate: Lean R
House A: Lean D*
House B: Tilt R

District 52: This is the quite liberal parts of northern Dakota County. The Republicans have a small presence at the southern fringe of this district, but this is DFL territory. This district is a lot like District 50, which lies to the northwest. 26-year Senator James Metzen looks to become President of the Senate again in 2013 after a 2-year hiatus in the minority. Charles Blum won the primary to face incumbent Rick Hansen in 52A. And 10-year incumbent Joe Atkins has a token opponent Paul Tuschy, who really has turned out to be a non-candidate. Joe Atkins is one of the few metro DFLers to receive the NRA endorsement.

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 53: Woodbury and Maplewood. Maplewood is quite DFL, and Woodbury is slightly so. The Republicans have freshman Andrea Kieffer sitting in the more Republican 53B, so they have a better than 50/50 shot at holding that. Interestingly, neither Kieffer, nor her opponent Ann Metzget have been seen as running much of a campaign at all. But are still sitting on over 10,000 dollars, and didn’t raise all that much. Kieffer wins the war of attrition, I believe. But the rest of the seats should be strong for the DFL. JoAnn Ward (D) is looking very good against Pam Cunningham in 53A. Ted Lillie, the freshman Republican incumbent senator lives here and is running, but this is a rough, rough district for a Republican to win. Another one of the facts that make you scratch your head am go “hmmmmm” BOTH Lillie and his Democratic opponent Susan Kent are sitting on over 30,000 dollars in the bank each, and they have both stockpiled WAY more than they have spent. Interestingly, it is entirely plausible that Michele Bachmann will be represented by DFLers in the state house, state senate, and US house (She lives in MN-4 now)

Senate: Lean D*
House A: Safe D*
House B: Lean R

District 54: Before I go into this detail about this district, there is something that people need to know about Minnesota politics. There are very few political dynasties in the state. There are some very prominent families, but not many of them flock to politics like the Kennedys or the Bushes. One of the few exceptions to this rule is the Sieben family. Brothers Michael and Harry were legislators back in the 70s and 80s. Harry, was a general in the Minnesota  National Guard, and cofounded one of the state’s largest lawfirms, which is named after him and a couple other founders. Michael’s daughter is Katie Sieben, and has represented this center-right Southern Washington County based senate district like her father and uncle before her. I don’t expect her to lose, even though the district leans against her, as her old district leaned against her as well. This is another one of the districts where the House seats are very different from one another. 54A is quite decisively DFL friendly. This is the open house seat, and the IP is making a play for it. The IP can really throw a wrench in projections of elections, but the natural lean of the district and the evenly thin resumes of the DFL and Republican candidates should keep this one with the district’s lean. It has turned out to be a low dollar affair, with only Democrat Dan Schoen spending north of 10,000. 54B is more Red than 54A is blue, and there is a 10-year incumbent Republican Denny McNamara there. He is safe.

Senate: Likely D
House A: Lean D*
House B: Safe R

District 55: Scott County. This is Republican territory to the core. Prior Lake school board member Eric Pratt should win the senate seat over the winner of the DFL primary. HD 44A incumbent Michael Beard is safe, and Tony Albright in 55B also has a safe path to Capitol Hill.

Senate: Safe R*
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R*

District 56: Swingy Burnsville to the east and marginally Republican Savage to the west. The lines were redrawn in this area rather drastically. This area used to be represented by the DFL before 2010, but the western part of the district had been shifting away from the DFL for a while. I think freshman Dan Hall mostly got a pass, garnering a B-level challenger Leon Thurman, but considering he is a freshman, and this area was a DFL area before, he is not 100% safe. 95% safe, but not 100. On the House side, freshman Pam Myhra was a winner in redistricting, getting a Savage-centric district. The man she unseated in 2010, Will Morgan, got an open Burnsville based seat to run in. The seat still leans ever so slightly slightly Republican, but the Republicans are running a political neophyte. Although that neophyte; Roz Peterson, raised slightly more money. Given Morgan’s name recognition from his tenure before, I give him a small advantage.

Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Tilt D*

District 57: Rosemount and Apple Valley. This is fairly Republican area, and the DFL is not investing top staff here, nor did they recruit top recruits. Preacher Pat Hall (brother to senator Dan Hall, next door) is attempting to get a seat in the upper chamber follow the retirement of Chris Gerlach amidst a scandal. He is facing a well known long-term principal of Apple Valley High school Greg Clausen. Clausen has a huge fundraising advantage, and both men have emptied the coffers, which leads me to believe they both see this as close. Obama won this district by 4 points in 08, and will likely win it again. Small advantage Clausen based on fundraising. Tara Mack, at the ripe old age of 29 is already looking at her 3rd term in the lower chamber. And Anna Wills is looking to take over Kurt Bils’ seat for the Republicans. Mrs. Wills faces Democrat Jeff Wilfarht in 57B, the Rosemount district. Wills has about a 4000 dollar fundraising advantage, and both candidates have spent about the same. I will give this one to Wills by the skin of her teeth. Not a pick I have much confidence in, however.

Senate: Tilt D*
House A: Safe R
House B: Tilt R*

District 58: Lakeville and southern Dakota County. This area is that area where the cornfields meet the housing developments. In the House, Republicans have two strong incumbents in Mary Liz Holberg, and Pat Garafolo, and they are facing token opposition. On the senate side, radio talk show host Dave Thompson will be running and winning his second term.

Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

Districts 59-63. These seats are all Minneapolis, and all are going to go 80-20 DFL.

District 59: This is the north side of Minneapolis, home of Keith Ellison, and the closest thing to a majority Minority district you can get in the state. Bobby Joe Champion (he is a man, just to clarify his androgynous sounding name) will go from the house to the senate. In the House, Representative Joe Mullery had gotten a primary challenge from Marcus Harcus. He isn’t anyone of note, but I figured I should give him a hat tip due to his awesome name. There is a logjam of candidates looking to replace Champion. One BIG thing of note is Ian Alexander, who is running on the DFL side in the primary, used to be a Republican until this year, and actively campaigned against Barack Obama. Raymond Dehn got Keith Ellison’s endorsement in that primary, and was ultimately victorious. Mr. Dehn will be Representative Dehn very shortly.

Senate: Safe D*
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D*

District 60: This district covers Northeast Minneapolis and the U of M campus (and its 51,000 students). Northeast Minneapolis is absolutely NOTHING like North Minneapolis, and there have been actual conflicts between the groups separated by the Mississippi river. Kari Dziedzic, who won the special election to replace Larry Pogemiller early this year, is a shoo-in for reelection against token GOP and IP opposition. Diane Loeffler and Phyllis Khan are also going to return for another term each as well.

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 61: This is Southwest Minneapolis, which is the most affluent area in the city. Minneapolis is known as the City of Lakes, and this district holds more than its fair share, and the homes on the lakes are rather palatial. This doesn’t mean they are any more conservative than the poorer parts of the city, as this is actually every bit as Democratic as the poverty stricken 59th district. Senator Scott Dibble didn’t even get a challenger to file against him. Representatives Frank Hornstein and Paul Thissen have warm bodies to beat in November. Expect Paul Thissen to be the next Speaker of the House.

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 62: This is a combination of Hipsters on the western side of the district, diverse areas in the center and south, and college students on the Northern edge. This is the most DFL district in the state. Senator Jeff Hayden garnered only an IP opponent as Republicans couldn’t find a candidate. Representative Karen Clark is running for her 17th term in 62A. Special election winner, Susan Allen, is running for her first reelection in 62B

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 63: This is South Minneapolis, running from Downtown to the Airport. Patricia Torres Ray, Jim Davnie, and Jean Wagenius are all returning for more time in St. Paul.

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

Districts 64-67: This is essentially St. Paul. Again, much like in Minneapolis, all of these seats are 100% Safe DFL, and will be won by blowout margins.

District 64: This is what is known as the West Side of St. Paul. It has many different pockets of different groups, far too many to try and mention here. Senator Dick Cohen, who has been elected here since 1976, is running for yet another term. Representatives Michael Paymar, and Erin Murphy are also running again.

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 65: This is Downtown St. Paul, and some surrounding areas. Sandy Pappas is running for reelection. Freshman representative Rena Moran dodged the redistricting axe, and has a practically free shot at a second term. 22-year incumbent Carlos Mariani is running for a 12th term.

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 66: This was the district that had a lot of local DFLers groaning. John Marty, a staple in state politics for a long time, got drawn into a primarily St. Paul based district, when his sliver of Roseville was drawn into it. All is well that ends well, right? Marty avoided a primary, and sealed the nomination for another term in the senate. Alice Hausman and John Lesch will be reelected to their House Seats as well.

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 67: This is the east side of St. Paul. There was a 3-way primary race for the DFL senate nomination with the victor being Foung Hawj. Hawj will be the first Hmong member of the legislature since former representative Mi Moua retired. Tim Mahoney has represented the East Side since 1998 in the House, and Sheldon Johnson joined him 2 years later in the other House disdtrict.

Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D*

Long story short,

Senate: Democrats 37-30. If Republicans sweep every single tilt senate race they will get up to 33, one short of a majority. If Democrats sweep every tilt race, they will have 42, three short of a super majority

House: Democrats 76-58. If Republicans sweep every tilt race, they will have 66, two short of a majority. If Democrats sweep every tilt race, they will have 82, 8 short of a super majority.

One thing that I am fairly certain of is a HUGE freshman class. I predict that 64 members of the next legislature will not be the ones currently there. That is nearly 1/3.

Poll

How many hours total do you think I spent on this?

4%3 votes
5%4 votes
10%7 votes
8%6 votes
11%8 votes
13%9 votes
7%5 votes
37%25 votes

| 67 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  As a hipster in the 62nd (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rigcath, WisJohn

    I would tell you off for calling me a hipster but then I would have to care, which I don't.

  •  Wow, nice to see a huge swing back (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OGGoldy, Lujane, WisJohn

    is practically guaranteed.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 07:53:29 PM PDT

    •  I knew it was coming (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, Lujane, ArkDem14, WisJohn

      There are just some districts that elected Republicans last time around that are just fundamentally Democratic on a deep level, but the red wave let a lot of Republicans in on narrow pluralities. When I saw that Carlson beat Mary Olson, long before redistricting, my first thought was "Well, there is another Walt Minnick"

  •  Thanks for all your work. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OGGoldy, Lujane, WisJohn

    Good work.

    Coregonus clupeaformis/ adikameg/ the caribou of the sea

    by Whitefish on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 08:28:19 PM PDT

    •  Thanks (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lujane, ArkDem14, WisJohn

      Took quite a bit of time. I am just waiting for someone to quibble with something and tell me I'm wrong. lol

      •  Quibbles (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        OGGoldy

        You asked for them! Some of these are just different judgment calls, but a few are different based on some local information I've gathered.

        1B: Probably tilt R. DeMers hasn't put in the work on the ground.

        2A: Tilt D: This is actually the more democratic side.

        2B: Tilt R: This is quite Republican, Brita is the best candidate we have, but her hopes hinge on high turnout from the reservation, but even then it will be close. She lost most of her better turf aside from the reservation.

        SD4: Tilt D, but would be Toss-Up. Eken hasn't run a good race, and Hansen is a bit of a celebrity. College turnout needs to be strong for Eken, or else he'll lose. He's not well known here as the only part that he used to represent is the relatively small Norman County.

        4B: This is safe DFL, but it isn't a strong DFL district like you said. It is a 50/50 district and Paul Marquart is an incredibly hard-working candidate, hence why he holds it down. He won by 50 in 2008, but more like 20 in 2010.

        SD5: Tilt D, but closer to toss-up. Very little of this is Saxhaug's old district and the GOP has dumped a lot of money into this race. And he is facing another incumbent who will overperform what Republicans normally get in Bemidji. If Bemidji goes 50/50, then this race could come down to the last precinct.

        5A: Tilt D: This is mainly Persell's old district, and Bemidji should be strong for him.

        5B: Tilt D: Mostly new turf for Anzelc. The Cass county part is brutal, but Grand Rapids should pull him through.

        10B: Tilt R: Very marginal turf that turned against us hard in 2010 and doesn't seem to have bounced back from what I'm hearing. Radinovich is a strong campaigner, but this area has just changed a lot in the last few years.

        11B: Tilt D: Same as 10B, though slightly more Democratic and with a former legislator running in what is very close to his old district.

        SD17: Gimse won in 2006, defeating Majority leader Dean Johnson. However, this district is significantly more Democratic than his old one (though still evenly split). Koenen has never rocked any boats for being too liberal (he voted for the marriage amendment...). Tilt D.

        SD21: Matt Schmit will either win or come very close to it. I'd like to call this a toss-up, but since that isn't allowed, I'll say tilt R but am almost expecting a surprise (which would make it not a surprise, I guess).

        SD24: Not DFL-locally, but trending our way. Kory Kath won big here because he was Kory Kath. Tilt R.

        26B: This district used to be represented by DFLer Andy Welti, but it was also the reddest district in MN held by a Dem. Welti won it by personally doing three passes on the doors each and every election, including riding his bike around the rural townships to knock those houses. I'd put it at Lean R, because I don't get the sense that Stallman is following the Welti playbook.

        SD28: Lean R: Miller hasn't felt as much heat because he made some labor-friendly votes that have kept labor out of this race. His family is well-known (father was mayor of Winona). I expect him to win.

        28A: Still the same Gene Pelowski running, not a Jr.

        28B: Tschumper is a joke, only won in 2006 because of the year and no one knew how much of an ass he is. Not going to happen again. Likely R.

        32B: I'd like to see Olseen win, but I'd say tilt R. Things are just so much more polarized now that it is hard to get those cross-over votes in an area like Chisago.

        36A: This is actually tough turf and Baltich faces the mayor of Champlin. I espect Uglem to win, Lean R.

        SD37: I'd put this at lean D, as it has only a slight DFL lean.

        SD39: The b-side is probably tilt-R. We won a few legislative races here last decade, but it has remained slightly red.

        SD42: Lean D, Scalze has been getting nailed by the GOP, and they wouldn't spend that much money unless they saw an opportunity.

        42A: Tilt D. The district is really only about 50/50, and Yarusso might be too liberal as she is a strong John Marty follower.

        SD48: Lean R: McKendry has run hard, and Hann has a bit of a scandal brewing in the press. He works in an industry that is directly effected by the committee he chairs. His boss wrote a letter to the editor talking about how great he was for business and cited examples from his own business. Conflict of interest, much?

        48A: Tilt D: Yvonne Selcer is a great candidate, but the district is still very marginal.

        SD49: Tilt D: Downey is an arch-conservative that won a 3-way race in 2008 with 38%, and then only won in 2010 by 3%. Franzen meanwhile is young, attractive, moderate, smart, and charismatic. I expect her to win by a few points.

        49A: Erhardt is going to win this in a walk.

        49B: I'd put it at lean, but feeling good about it.

        51/51A/51B: Not a fan of Carlson, but most indications are that he is going to win. He's being helped by a very strong field program in the area by the DFL and the Obermueller for Congress campaign. Masin should win back her seat for the same reason. And I think Halvorsen will win too, based on her hard work and how the district will perform on the federal level. Tilt D/Lean D/Tilt D.

        53: Woodbury actually leans R and makes up most of the district. I might put it at tilt R, but wouldn't be surprised by a Kent victory. House A is likely D and house B is likely R.

        54: This area actually has a DFL-lean, but seems more Republican because of how well Rep. Denny McNamara does in the B-side. Still likely D, if not Safe.

        •  Ya know, we aren't as far apart (0+ / 0-)

          As people reading your comment would believe. I think our differences have three basic themes: 1. You believe that trends are faster than I do. 2. You prioritize campaign energy, whereas I prioritize endorsements and fundraising. 3. You put more faith in voters to distinguish relatively anonymous legislators by ideology within their party.

          You obviously have as much knowledge about this state as I do. Why didn't you come up with a similar diary?

        •  Retort (0+ / 0-)

          Naturally, I couldn't just let such a comment go without a response race-by-race response.

          1B. I truly believe that the LGA issue will sink Kiel. I read excerpts from their candidate forum, and DeMers is really going hard after that issue. And in outstate Minnesota, LGA is a BFD.

          2 A/B. I think Sailer gives us a better chance, just because of who she is, her name recognition, and her fundraising. Erickson hasn't really impressed me, and Lake of the (Woods + Hubbard) > (Beltrami - Bemidji). That's why I gave the edge to Hancock.

          4/4A. Eken is an incumbent representative, and has managed to keep up with a self-fundraiser. It's been 22 years since Hansen played football at NDSU, so it isn't like it was a recent occurance. I have faith in Eken in this race, especially given it's partisan leanings. And we agree on Marquart, I just got my years crossed.

          5/5A/5B. I think you're underestimating Saxhaug's prowess is Itasca County. And how many people in Bemidji actually know who John Carlson is? He may overperform generic R, but if cities like Bemidji are 50/50, we have much bigger problems than one senate seat. I give a LOT of credit to Howe for holding down a seat in northern Minnesota (even if it is Cass) for so long. This is the redder half of the senate seat, and Howe is a strong long-term incumbent. It'll be a dogfight. Anzelc won't lose in an Itasca County district. He simply won't.

          10B. I have more faith in Aitkin County than you do. This is a county that was won by every statewide Democratic candidate in 2010. It was even carried by Al Franken, who is a TERRIBLE fit for the area. The Crow Wing County portion is a lot smaller than the portion of the county in 10A, even though it is geographically bigger. Radinovich has really impressed me. I stand by my rating.

          11B. Faust used to represent most of this district, so he knows how to win it. He is much stronger than what the GOP put up

          17. This is one of the 2 or 3 marquee races in the state as far as I am concerned. This is one area where the DFL has been fading fast. Koenen getting a hard primary challenge is not a sign of strength to me. It'll be close, that's for sure.

          21. I just don't see a nobody taking out an incumbent in this area

          24. Conversely, I feel very good with the DFL trends in the Owatanna area. The SE part of the state seems to be gravitating our way en mass, and quickly. Owatanna used to define Republicanism, but no longer. It is a shame Kath decided to hang it up. He is only 35, and would be a near lock in his current seat.

          26B. Welti probably had to take a bicycle around his district because he wasn't hardly old enough to drive when he was first elected (I am only mostly kidding here). he is another one that I am disappointed didn't make a comeback. He is only 32 now.

          28/A/B. Miller is not in danger due to extreme views or anything. It's just a matter of the nature of the district. Lean or Tilt R is a difference in semantics. I was unaware than Tschumper was a chump. I knew he was an incumbent before. But being personally unpleasant is probably a nonstarter. And Pelowski as always been a Jr.? I met the guy a number of times and didn't know that? Between the SoS site using the Jr. titling, and the NRA rating website not using the incumbent denotation on their endorsement list, I just presumed he was the son. My bad.

          32B. Everything about the fundamentals about this district agrees with you, but I just have a feeling that Olseen has not lost his touch. I have no qualms with someone calling it Tilt R though.

          36A. Uglem is the mayor of Champlain? I can't believe I missed that. Embarrassing.

          37. I don't believe that this district has shifted as fast as you do. The northern edge of Blaine has changed certainly, but Spring Lake Park is still a place for Johnson to run up votes. And Johnson has been dominant in the money game.

          39B. I think that Stillwater will be enough. Lohmer hasn't exactly set the world on fire in her tenure in St. Paul

          42/B. The money is coming in because of the type of candidate they have running. They want the next Keith Downey or Cindy Pugh. This just isn't the district to do it. On the B side, I would listen to that argument is Bertch hadn't turned out to be so incredibly feckless.

          48. I hadn't heard about a Hann scandal. I will keep my eye on it. It's just a tough spot for a Democrat to run and win.

          49/A/B. Downey was a tea party insurgent before it was cool. He is a far-right fundy, but he has an IMMENSE amount of money and outside backing. I see about 2 ads for Downey for every 1 I see for Franzen. This is a high dollar affair being run with near congressional level money. I am hopeful for Erhardt, but this really is uncharted territory w/r/t party switching. With the whole Mazorol fiasco, I wrote this one into the D column, and I haven't seen anything to second guess that.

          51/A/B. You have more faith in trends than I do. I know Eagan and Burnsville are on the right track, but I don't think it is an area that you can count on all 3 districts coming our way in a non-wave year. I think 2012 will be a good year statewide, but not a wave like 06 or 08

          53. I have more faith in Woodbury than you do, I guess. It is marginal, certainly.

          54. I just don't see either Sieben or McNamara losing this round. There will be a LOT of people that vote for both of them.

          Thank you for your input, by the way!

  •  Report from Moorhead (0+ / 0-)

    You say that Moorhead is the most expensive legislative race? Yeah, it makes sense. I live in Moorhead and I’ve been getting tons of mailers, from the candidates and the parties and from independent committees. I’m getting excited about the election.

    I’m glad you’re predicting all three Democrats are ahead.

    I’ve noticed a lot more lawn signs for the Democratic candidates. And many more No signs for the two constitutional amendments (one about voter-ID and and one defining marriage as one-man-one-woman). The Knights of Columbus bar and the Catholic Church both have YES one-man-one-woman signs up (the Catholic school fired a teacher recently because she said she thought marriage equality was a good idea). But on 8th street south, by the McDonalds, the United Church of Christ/Congregationalist people have NO signs for both amendments and a big rainbow flag on the side of the church.

    But the angle said to them, "Do not be Alfred. A sailor has been born to you"

    by Dbug on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 11:00:57 PM PDT

  •  Districts that are 95% white and 70% Democratic (0+ / 0-)

    This is also the case in Berkshire County, MA and most of Vermont. It's not just the Iron Range.

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), new ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:27:37 AM PDT

    •  Also AD79 and AD80 in western Dane County (0+ / 0-)

      each of which combines Madison's deep blue western suburbs with the bluest portions of the Driftless Area. Unlike the Iron Range and like Vermont, these districts are ancestral liberal Republican areas that have shifted hard left in recent years. The most notable politician from present day AD79 was Robert LaFollette Sr. (R-Primrose), which should give you a good idea of the political leanings of the area. Pocan's old AD78 was about 90% white and 90% Democratic (like many rapidly growing towns, the inner suburbs of Madison are more diverse than downtown, though Madison is generally very white for a city).

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:09:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Eau Claire and La Crosse (0+ / 0-)

        In addition to the western Dane County districts that you're talking about, the new Democratic vote sink in Eau Claire and La Crosse are also pretty heavily Democratic and white as well.  

        They're not quite 95% white or 70% Democratic but very close.

  •  Comments. (0+ / 0-)

    5A- I agree with Archer Dem. I think it tilts Persell. The only part of this district that was Howes' was the city of Walker and two small townships.

    21- I wish they would draw a river house district from Red Wing on down, and then draw an inner district, so that the Democrats on the river wouldn't be diluted into the strongly Republican rural areas of Goodhue and Wabasha Counties.

    24B- Dan Kaiser was mayor of Medford. Whoopie-doo. I have family in that area, and one of them said Kaiser is a real jerk.

    26B- Wow. I thought the former Andy Welti seat was gone for a while.

    53- Nice to know that about the Bat-Lady. Kind of like when President Bush was represented by Chet Edwards in Congress. What municipality does Michele Bachamnn actually live in?

    66-I would prefer Mary Jo McGuire over John Marty, but as long as it is a DFLer, I don't care.

    I would have preferred that districts 17A and 12A would be a SD, and the respective B house districts be a senate district, which would resemble the current SD-13. I feel the court screwed us in this area of the state.

    What are the asterisks for?

    Thank you for this diary. When you get time, you should do another diary of the results for us.

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

    by WisJohn on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:43:23 AM PDT

    •  Responses (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      5A. I know that Persell has more of his old district here. But I feel as though Howes is a better candidate than Persell. Howes has many more tough elections under his belt. It is going to be quite the race. I think we all agree on that much.

      21. While that may be a decent idea right now, I have a couple problems with it. First and foremost, the reason it wasn't divided north-south (er, northwest-southeast) is a compactness issue. That makes two very long spaghetti string districts. The courts weren't going to do that. And secondly, I like the way that SE Minnesota is going, and I think long term, we will likely have a shot at all three of those districts, instead of ceding one or two.

    •  Responses, take 2 (0+ / 0-)

      Hit post a little early last time.

      24B. Does your family think he is dickish because they are Democrats, or because he is actually dickish? I don't have him favored to win, but Fritz has always been that candidate that never lives up to the district's potential and squeezes through.

      26B. You and ArcherDem seem to have the same thoughts on that. Even if it doesn't flip this time around, I don't see Benson holding it for the decade.

      53. Bachmann actually moved to Woodbury from Maplewood. Her official campaign address is in Stillwater, though.

      66. McGuire has a long history of getting shafted when it comes to redistricting. This is the second time she was drawn out of her seat. But like it or not Marty is very much a leader within the DFL caucus, so there was really no choice but for McGuire to hang it up. Avoiding a primary was the right move on her part. And who knows, she is only 56, so she may run for Coleman's mayorship if Chris decided to step down or run for something else.

      As far as a results diary goes, I am not going to promise anything. I will likely do a diary where I grade my predictions. But a full on results diary is a lot of time and energy I am not willing to commit to at the moment. It's a LOT of work.

      •  Kaiser (0+ / 0-)

        I don't know if they are Democrats (they keep that to themselves), but my aunt said he was a jerk and a creeper on my then-teenage, female cousin. So I will say actually dickish.

        I think Mary Jo should run for mayor if Chris quits. Or Congress, if Betty decides to hang it up. There is just something about her personality that I like.

        I would be fine with a graded predictions diary.

        Thanks again!

        Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

        by WisJohn on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 12:04:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  District 15A (0+ / 0-)

    Senate District 15 is a bright red vote sink for Republicans overall, but the A portion IS winnable. Klobuchar won it in 2006, Oberstar won it for years (decades?), and Lisa Fobbe and Gail Kulick both won in 2008 (old district 16/A). Tim Faust won the Kanabec county portion of the new district in 2006 and 2008.

    The DFL candidate running against Sondra Erickson (no idea who O'Neill is?) is Joe Walsh. Sure it's a tough race, but it's far from impossible. Let's not write it off so entirely or so easily.

    The more unhappy you feel, the more likely you are to do something unwise.

    by kweimann on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:52:28 PM PDT

  •  If yardsigns are any indication (0+ / 0-)

    (they probably aren't)

    Ted Lillie is running away with this. It could be that the Republicans are just more vocal/demonstrative about their support, but I've seen way more Lillie stuff.

    Conversely, we've been bombarded with mailers and calls from both the Kent and Lillie campaigns over the last few months. I used to live in Ohio, and have never received this much personal attention over any race, let alone one from the State Senate. I miss the obscurity and political irrelevancy of living in Minneapolis, damn it!

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