As of now I’m assuming a 2-5 point Obama win (I was at 4-6 before the first debate) and a reasonably good environment for House Dems, but much less than a 2006-level wave, let alone 2008. Of course things can still change. For example, if the national environment gets significantly better for Dems the tilt D races might move to lean D and the pure tossups to tilt D, etc. To me, “lean” means that I would be surprised but not shocked if the underdog wins. “Tilt” means that I expect the favorite to win, but would not be surprised much if the underdog wins.
Anyway: 148 safe D and 24 likely D seats including CO7, IA1, IA2, CA9, and KY6. The Dem incumbents held these in 2010 and either won comfortably (CO7, IA1, IA2) or got better districts (CA9, KY6). I’m not listing the others in the interest of space.
Lean D (20): NV4, CA24, CA26, CA41, CA52, IL10, IL11, IL12, AZ1, AZ9, CT5, FL9, FL18, FL22, FL26, MD6, MN8, NY21, PA12, RI1. Ultimately I think Critz will do about as well as Altmire would have, and West seems to have blown it.
Tilt D (7): MA6, NC7, IL17, CA7, CO6, IL13, MI1. Obama won CO6 by about the same margin as he won the state and it’s probably trended left relative to the state since then. Obama should win it again, and I don’t see Coffman having much crossover appeal. Gill should run about even with Obama as Davis is just as obscure as he is, and Obama won by 11 in 2008.
Pure tossup (16)
NH1 and NH2: These should roughly follow the presidential race (Bass might run slightly ahead of Romney), and based on the campaigns’ internals at times it’s looked like Obama’s way ahead, and at times it’s been close to tied.
IA3: I’m pretty sure that this race will follow the presidential topline, which will likely be close as Obama won by 6 in 2008.
IA4: Polls have been close. Obama lost by less than 2 here in 2008, and you’d think that any Obama voter and at least a few McCain voters would be willing to dump Steve King for a credible alternative.
NV3: Polls show Oceguera behind, but they always understate Dem strength in the Vegas area and the Dem organization is wiping the floor with the GOP again. I can see an argument for tilt D as Obama won it by 9 in 2008 and Oceguera should not run too far behind him.
MI11: If Taj gets enough money to discredit Bentivolio with a late ad blitz, he should win. It’s a tossup because it isn’t clear whether this will happen.
TN4: See above. Most of the voters in this district probably voted for Lincoln Davis or Bart Gordon at least once, and Stewart should be able to turn them against DJ (who hit the trifecta of infidelity, breach of professional ethics, and encouraging what he believes to be murder) with a late ad blitz.
CO3: Still no idea what’s going on with this one.
WI7: Another one that should follow the presidential race which should be close.
GA12: Barrow seems to be holding his own.
OH6: Dueling internals seem off by about the same amount and have this one real tight.
OH16: Probably one of the few districts outside Arizona where Obama seems likely to improve on his 2008 margin. Sutton seems to be holding up well.
TX23: Sprawling, heavily Hispanic, and hard to poll. Will come down to turnout.
CA10: Also has close polls, and 2 X factors: Hispanic turnout (25% CVAP) and the 15% of the primary vote that went to indie Chad Condit.
CA21: I’ll see your X factor and raise you: 49% Hispanic CVAP here. Dems got a respectable 43% in the primary given how red the June electorate is compared to November, and despite his lack of funds Hernandez seems to be making the GOP sweat. This one comes down entirely to Hispanic turnout.
NY18: Seems to be about even.
Tilt R (12): PA8, WI8, UT4, IN2, IN8, MT, NY11, NY19, NY27, CA36, FL2, FL10. Some of these have been triaged, but they triaged Steve Driehaus in 2010 and he came close even after the national climate turned much worse for Dems. All these districts have shown a recent willingness to vote for Dems except for FL10 which has a strong Dem challenger, a fairly weak GOP incumbent, and some demographic creep, and CA36 which has a lot of demographic creep.
Lean R (16): ND, SD, NJ3, MI3, MI6, VA2, VA5, FL13, IN9, OH7, TX14, NE2, NC8, NC9, MN6, CA45. Some of these maybe should be likely R but are still here because I haven’t seen much on them. MI3 and MI6 might actually be tilt R or even tossup if those Dem internals have realistic presidential toplines. FL13 and CA45 are sleeper races. Some of these others might be. IN9 has been even darker than CO3 but Yoder seems to be a good retail politician and most of the district has a history of voting for Baron Hill (off and on) and Lee Hamilton.
45 likely R and 147 safe R. This includes PA6. Gerlach withstood the 2006 and 2008 blue waves with a less friendly district.
Unless things change, I would expect Dems to lose about as many of the tilt Ds as they win of the tilt Rs, which would leave them between 199 (+6) and 215 (+22) seats depending on how the tossups shake out. I think they’ll win a few more than they lose, and pick up 15 or 16 overall. Intrade gives Dems about a 10% chance to retake the House. I think it’s better than this, maybe 20%, but the overall environment would have to shift in their favor for this to happen.
Thoughts? Are any of these ratings way off base? Does anyone have new info on CO3?