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Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 7/19-7/22. Registered voters. MoE ±3.1% (7/12-15 results):

Q: If the candidates for President this fall were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama: 46 (48)
Mitt Romney: 46 (46)
Undecided: 8 (7)

There's no getting around: These are the worst head-to-head numbers for President Obama we've found since we started including this question in our poll every week back in April:
Chart of Obama vs. Romney results
Obama in blue, Romney in red
On the one hand, you could argue that this movement is just noise—after all, a two-point change is really no big deal in an ordinary poll. You could also note that we've seen numbers almost this close before: Back at the end of May, Obama led by just a single point. On the other hand, you might take note of the continuous downward trend since June 10. You could also point out that, on the face of things, Obama's had a pretty good (if not very good) couple of weeks in the news, with Romney in an ugly defensive crouch over his unreleased tax returns and fuzzy departure from Bain Capital, and yet the president's numbers have still dropped.

I can't tell you which view is right. But if you step back and look at all the national polling, not just PPP's, it does indeed appear that the race has tightened in the last couple of weeks (and that's true whether or not you include Rasmussen):

My read? This is what happens when you have an incredibly hard-fought election, with an extremely well-funded challenger, against the backdrop of an economy that's been lousy for years. We should expect a close race, and I don't think anyone really felt that those gaudy eight-point leads Obama showed in our polling early last month were going to be sustainable. Notably, though, Romney still hasn't taken the lead, either in PPP's polling or when you look at the national aggregate. We'll just have to keep watching to see where things are headed next.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:15 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Yet, Rmoney is still losing (18+ / 0-)

    where it counts. As I just noted in Kos's battle ground state post, Rmoney has a significant uphill climb in that he has to win the following states currently showing an edge for Obama (in order of margin from least to most) in order to get to 270:

    Florida - +1.3 for Obama
    Colorado - +1.4 for Obama
    Virginia - +1.7 for Obama

    New Hampshire - +2.7 for Obama

    Iowa - + 3.7 for Obama

    Ohio  - + 4.7 for Obama

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:19:56 AM PDT

    •  win the national, win the election (3+ / 0-)

      I've said it ad nauseam. This 'yeah but the state polls' riff just doesn't cut it.  There's no way you lose the popular vote and win, barring the 2000 theft and Nader effect (spit).

      •  And yet it is obviously going to happen (6+ / 0-)

        If all PPP's polls are right.

        The race is not close.  Obama has a solid lead for 303 electoral votes, regardless of what any national numbers say.

        Romney's chances are still very, very tiny.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:47:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  summer time (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Fury, hyperstation, LordMike, McGahee220

        Young voters, single voters, so called latinos, African Americans are less likely to indicate to a pollster that they will definately vote than older and married and more settled folk.  Thus the sample in July of committed voters isn't the same that it is in October and what it will be after the get out the vote mobilization impacts the voters.  

        So National polls are interesting, but they are not based on a moving train of committed voters which will gather more and more commited voters as time moves on.

        •  I am not convinced of that point (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bryduck, Yosef 52, Williston Barrett

          Most of those groups were sure of their votes in 2008.  I know we're in different waters in 2012, but really, if these demographic groups - which are crucial to Democrats -- don't know they're voting Democratic at this point, then I am more afraid than i was before i read this diary.

          I vote Democratic because I am a woman with self-respect , who rejects bigotry of all kinds, subscribes to science, believes in universal health care, embraces unions, and endorses smart internationalist foreign policy.

          by Delilah on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:11:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And in 2008, Obama's worst months... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, Delilah, McGahee220

            ...were July and August.  They've always been his worst months every year since then.  There is a systemic "summer effect" that is consistent.

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:42:47 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I keep reminding myself (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              of that point as I devolve into hand wringing mode.  ;)

              BTW, LordMike, I always love your posts.

              I vote Democratic because I am a woman with self-respect , who rejects bigotry of all kinds, subscribes to science, believes in universal health care, embraces unions, and endorses smart internationalist foreign policy.

              by Delilah on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:55:22 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Thank you, Delilah! I appreciate it! :-) (0+ / 0-)

                I've been dreading this summer, because I knew that Obama's number would tank as the summer went on, because that's what ALWAYS happens.  I'm glad that he's putting up a fight this summer, since this is not the time to fall behind.

                GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                by LordMike on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 05:35:47 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  ...and in 2011 if I remember well.... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              not that it gives room for complacency...but there appears to be a pattern here...
              ...all in all it would come down to the narrative about the economy in the next 3 months.....keeping 100k+ jobs would look not too bad...

              "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

              by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 02:12:01 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  I disagree (0+ / 0-)

        you can lose the national vote and win the electoral college. It has happened a few times. But regardless of that the fact is that we simple do not vote for President at the national level. We vote for President at the state or electoral college level. That is the actual vote that counts. I'm not saying national numbers are unimportant. They certainly are important as a reflection of the electorate as a whole but the fact remains that we elect Presidents on a state by state basis therefore the state polls are vastly more important. This election will be very close, likely 51-49, nationally but may well not be close at all electorally.

        "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

        by Andrew C White on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:22:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  very true.. (0+ / 0-)

           In electoral landslides like we had in 1980, and 1988 just how bad was the Democrat whooped in the popular vote? I'm thinking  Clinton buried Dole in the electoral college in 1996  but only won by like 7% of the popular vote.

      •  Not true...you can lose the national and still win (3+ / 0-)

        the election...Our elections are not decided on a national basis. about 10 states decide our elections. If Romney wins the national and loses OH or PA or FL (yes just one of these ) and Obama holds everything else he held in 2008. Romney can't win...

        "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

        by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:29:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  In 2004, only a shift of 60,000 in OH (0+ / 0-)

        The precariousness of the current state-by-state winner-take-all system of awarding electoral votes is highlighted by the fact that a shift of a few thousand voters in one or two states would have elected the second-place candidate in 4 of the 13 presidential elections since World War II.  Near misses are now frequently common.  There have been 6 consecutive non-landslide presidential elections (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008).  537 popular votes won Florida and the White House for Bush in 2000 despite Gore's lead of 537,179 (1,000 times more) popular votes nationwide. A shift of 60,000 voters in Ohio in 2004 would have defeated President Bush despite his nationwide lead of over 3 million votes.    

    •  He's not winning all of these (8+ / 0-)

      My take:

      FL? Screw it. With all the shenanigans, I'm giving it (in my mind) to the Republicans and moving on.  

      CO? Not for a minute do I buy CO not going for Obama.

      VA? This could turn against us, but we have a Senate race to win here too.

      NH?  These people know Romney well from Mass. and primary campaigns - there's not many undecided voters to sway.  Can't see Romney winning this one.

      IA?  Ditto.

      OH? Bad economic numbers could push this one the wrong direction.

      Romney has to win ALL of these.  Also, Obama has some take-aways:

      Arizona:  If Hispanics turn out and go 75-25, Obama could win here.

      Missouri:  Though I'm of the belief MO is entering WV territory, polls show a close race.

      North Carolina:  Still winnable with good AA turnout.

      The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. --George Orwell

      by jgkojak on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:42:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah... (9+ / 0-)

      If Obama takes Ohio, I don't see a legitimate way for Mittens to win this thing.  But I guess illegitimate is what the billionaires can ensure.

    •  TPM has this covered (4+ / 0-)

      also Electoral: O-281, R-191

      Just something to help get over the depressing national polls...which I just don't understand.

      Guns don't kill people. They just make it very easy.

      by goObama on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:48:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What is interesting is that of the 4 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        McGahee220

        listed as tossups (FL,VA,NC,CO) Obama is leading in in all except NC....I don't think he can lose all these 4....

        "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

        by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:34:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not if he tightens the race (3+ / 0-)

      Those numbers may mean nothing if Romney gets any momentum on national level. The narrower the gap the better Romney will do. That is why camp Obama is hitting him hard early on.

      Right now it is the broader consensus on Obama that is causing him all the problems. A good chunk on our side is not happy about his performance (that's putting mildly). We may vote so that Romney doesn’t get into the office, but it won’t be with great enthusiasm for Obama. And the biggest assumption is that our side will show up.

      So don’t hang your hat on those numbers, they can turn real quickly.

      "The heart has its reasons that reason knows nothing of." Pascal

      by Avetis on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:57:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  As I said, "states currently showing" (0+ / 0-)

        long time 'til November. Lots of things could change. But as it stands today with those state by state numbers, those are the easiest targets for Rmoney to pick off from Obama to get him to 270.

        "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

        by Andrew C White on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:51:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Which of these states has voter suppression (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Andrew C White

      laws?
      The amazing thing is that Obama can lose OH,PA,FL,NC and still win, keeping everything else...

      "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

      by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:24:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Let's talk internals (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rennert, Andrew C White

      17% of African-American voters for Romney? Not gonna happen.

      13% of Democrats for Romney? Not gonna happen.

      Obama's favorables at -5? Something's fishy.

      I love PPP because they make the internals public, but they got a bad sample this time around. Maybe it has something to do with their Friday polling? 41-49 Romney? NOT GONNA HAPPEN.

  •  Fired up! (20+ / 0-)

    Ready to go!

    Screw the polls, let's just work like hell to reelect.

    Work as if he is 5 points behind!

    I'm not familiar precisely with exactly what I said, but I stand by what I said, whatever it was. -- Mitt the Twit

    by Senor Unoball on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:20:51 AM PDT

  •  Your internals have Obama winning 40% of the (16+ / 0-)

    white vote.

    If he does this, he wins the election easily.  Everything else, especially AAs (doing worse than Kerry?), is just a weird sample.

  •  Be afraid. Be very afraid (12+ / 0-)

    Use that fear to motivate action.

    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra En théorie, il n'y a aucune différence entre théorie et pratique, mais en pratique, il y a toujours une différence. - Yogi Berra

    by blue aardvark on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:23:31 AM PDT

  •  Why don't you get used to stating the facts (19+ / 0-)

    "against the backdrop of an economy that's been lousy for years" should read "against the backdrop of an economy that's been sabotaged by the Republicans for years."

  •  What's interesting is that during the Bain (10+ / 0-)

    attacks, where the President has been outspending Romney and it's been pretty universally agreed that Romney's had a bad couple of weeks, Romney's numbers did not get worse, while the President's numbers went down.

    There's been speculation by some pundits that the President's direct attacks on Romney have essentially dragged down the President's own favorability ratings -- that what people liked about him was his optimism ("Hope and Change") and they don't like his negative, attack mode.  That may be why the President's latest ad changes tone.

    •  I think there's some basis in truth there. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Delilah, cocinero, LordMike

      I also think that the President never intended to stay on the offensive too long - just to force a narrative on Romney that Romney's going to have to fight to shake off much longer than it'll take Obama to return to his sunny disposition. Of course, I could just be making things up, because I like the President; but that's what it seems like to me.

    •  Agreed (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Delilah, JanL, fumie, LordMike

      I would concur the same, news cycles were bad for Mittens but he did not drop (he will probably not drop further any how), objective is to get POTUS numbers up eventually.
      I think Team O have made a strategic calculation that they have laid down the ground work/softening of the target.
      Now they have switched to a new Add whcih has Obama speaking directly to the public. It should work in my opinion in bringing back Obama's positive approach in the limelight

    •  I think that is why a variety of ads are needed (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, LordMike, tuma

      Yes, attack when you can and should.

      But also be kind and show the voters that you care.

      And keep that optimism alive.

      I'm not familiar precisely with exactly what I said, but I stand by what I said, whatever it was. -- Mitt the Twit

      by Senor Unoball on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:57:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Still I disagree...if you don't attack the (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      coffejoe, McGahee220

      scorch-earth-capitalism-hollow-out-the-middle class that Romney thinks is great, you are essentially surrendering the economy to Romney. If you do that what, else is there to attack Romney on? Next you'd surrender the tax issue and with that Romney coasts to victory...right?
      If anything hurt Obama is was the twisted "we built it" that Romney has been running with...

      "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

      by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 02:01:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It's the economy catching up with Obama (18+ / 0-)

    It took a while, but economic confidence is finally trending down, and it's pulling Obama down. As we've seen the past few weeks, even a competent campaign can't fight against that. All we can do is hope economic confidence improves slightly.

    Why did the Washington Post hire Bellatrix LeStrange? And why did she change her name to Jennifer Rubin?

    by NoFortunateSon on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:32:20 AM PDT

    •  I agree. (4+ / 0-)

      Hope is great, but it isn't a strategy. There is little coming out of the Obama administration on the economy except "those mean Republicans are just messing everything up!" The air of fatalism is disturbing. There are solutions to resolving this depression but it requires big, bold actions, something that is foreign to a pretty cerebral Presidency.

      The universe may have a meaning and a purpose, but it may just specifically not include you.

      by Anne Elk on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:39:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And the problem with this message (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike
        "those mean Republicans are just messing everything up!"

        is that "those mean Republicans" are still going to be there, probably still in control of the House, in 2013.  

      •  Obama hamstrung himself on the economy from day 1 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, Micheline

        by appointing god's chosen Goldman Sachs freakazoids in key positions in the admin.

        NOW SHOWING
        Progressive Candidate Obama (now - Nov 6, 2012)
        Bipartisan Obama returns (Nov 7, 2012)

        by The Dead Man on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:00:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Such as? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Delilah, LordMike

        I'm not arguing, but I'm curious what policy levers Obama has available, that don't require cooperation from bodies hostile or indifferent to his re-election (i.e the Republicans in Congress, the Federal Reserve).

        •  Nada. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          But that shouldn't stop him from proposing something anyway.  Maybe a little bigger than the AJA.

        •  I should have a file to allow me to cut and paste (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tuma

          this. But, as I keep banging away about this, the economy needs a few trillion in infrastructure spending. But it cannot come from deficit spending for obvious political reasons. Fortunately, there is a simply massive amount of money lying around that isn't really doing anything. That pile of money is called retirement savings. The combined amount of money in IRA and 401K's in the USA is upwards of $8 trillion. If I offered you 3% p.a. return guaranteed on a 10-year tex-free bond, would you buy some? How's your IRA doing right now? I bet 3% would be kind of nice. That's what a lot of Americans would think. By issuing the equivalent of Liberty Bonds, the US could raise over $2 trillion and put the savings of American citizens to work rescuing their own country from economic decline.

          Since the bonds would be voluntary, it wouldn't be a tax. But it wouldn't add to the deficit immediately because the interest is paid after 10 years. For $2 trillion, my math says the interest comes out to $136 billion. The investment in the economy would more than pay for the interest bill in increased tax receipts. So, if I can come up with something like this, why can't the Administration?

          This is not a problem of not having the money to solve this depression. It's very much a question of perception. You cannot spend $2 trillion by deficit spending, even though that's not a problem, but you might be able to by asking ordinary citizens to lend it to you because it's money we already have that isn't remotely productive.

          The universe may have a meaning and a purpose, but it may just specifically not include you.

          by Anne Elk on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:40:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  What you are proposing... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            GRLionsFan

            ...is just another name for deficit spending no matter how one paints it. In addition, you are proposing overpaying for borrowing which makes it even more expensive (10 year treasury yield hit 1.393% today). Indeed, yields on corporate 10 yr AAA bonds, with no government guarantee, are even lower than the return you are suggesting. I don't understand how this is more politically palatable than just borrowing the money the usual way through 10 year T-Notes and T-Bond auctions.

            Deferring the interest is just a shell game. Perhaps GAO accounting allows not booking the expense of interest owed but not yet distributed (unlike FASB rules which I believe would prohibit such a treatment), but that's a trivially explainable shell game that would give another talking point to Romney.

            The tax free aspect is irrelevant to IRAs and 401(k) accounts -- they are already tax deferred and there's no mechanism in place to track a "tax free" gain on certain classes of investments on which tax is forever forgiven -- it's all (principal and gain) taxable as ordinary income when you take a distribution.

            Many of those who are attracted to a low yield, low risk, long term investments (i.e., willing to bet inflation will remain low for most of the term) in their IRAs (and, to a lesser extent, in 401(k)s where investment options are usually much more limited) are already in Treasuries (directly or through bond funds or target retirement funds for older folks). To the extent that this deal entices them to swap to AnneElk Bonds, it will increase the supply of after market treasuries thereby driving down interest rates on newly issued Federal debt which could be a benefit of this approach, but this would be a pretty small benefit.

            The notion that the money currently deposited isn't "even remotely productive" is interesting. Why, then, are investors willing to pay a premium to use that money? If AnneElk bonds pay more than AAA corporate bonds, it will drive some people to move to the higher yielding government insured AnneElk bonds -- driving up interest rates for corporations which will make expansion more expensive and lead businesses to become more conservative about expanding. The entire purpose of keeping interest rates low, like it or not, is to encourage investment and spending -- AnneElk bonds would do the opposite.

            •  Economically, yes. Politically, no. (0+ / 0-)

              The universe may have a meaning and a purpose, but it may just specifically not include you.

              by Anne Elk on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 02:47:49 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  So what you are saying (0+ / 0-)

              is that we shouldn't increase spending. Great. Explain how you would persuade Congress to do that.

              The universe may have a meaning and a purpose, but it may just specifically not include you.

              by Anne Elk on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 02:49:18 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I didn't state an... (0+ / 0-)

                ...opinion on increasing spending.

                I'm not quite sure what you're asking me to explain.

                If we increase spending, we need to borrow more money and/or raise more revenue, likely through higher taxes on high income taxpayers and corporations.

                But, both routes require Congressional approval. The Administration can't create AnneElk bonds unilaterally to evade the debt ceiling. Nor can the Administration spend funds unilaterally that are not authorized.

                In this environment, accounting games (which only work if GAO accounting doesn't have to account for the deferred interest until it actual pays it for some reason that escapes me right now - else the whole proposal makes no sense) such as AnneElk bonds are NOT going to get through Congress.

                Perhaps I'm missing your point.

                •  I see what you are saying (0+ / 0-)

                  But there is (a) a need to raise domestic spending and (b) a need to sell that to the public if not the Congress. If you don't agree with (a), then we are done. If you do, then perhaps you might consider that the AnneElk bonds are at least good marketing even though the underlying economics aren't different. In the case of AnneElk bonds, what people think they are vs what they actually are is a very important issue. If you have another idea to sell the public on the need for increased spending, let's hear it.

                  The universe may have a meaning and a purpose, but it may just specifically not include you.

                  by Anne Elk on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 03:26:04 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  Big, bold actions are foreign (0+ / 0-)

        to McConnell and Boehner and congressional Republicans.

      •  I agree. I really want to know step by step what (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, WillR

        is going to be done about the economy in a second term.  Thus far, I haven't really heard this....and I am a Progressive who would vote for Obama if he wasn't even running...so I know low info voter wants to know the same.

        •  And, this would have the benefit of forcing... (0+ / 0-)

          ...Romney to do the same. To the extent that Obama speaks in specifics, Romney is backed into a corner to do the same.

          Of course, both would only be able to execute on their plans to the extent Congress cooperates.

      •  ..and tell me exactly how you get these bold (0+ / 0-)

        actions in todays congress?

        There are solutions to resolving this depression but it requires big, bold actions, something that is foreign to a pretty cerebral Presidency.

        "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

        by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 02:04:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You make a case for bold action, and then when the (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Anne Elk

          Republicans block them, you paint them as obstructionists.

          Obama needs a bold, new economic plan that he can run on. It doesn't matter that Congress won't pass it.

          Obama has become the status quo. People have decided that what we're doing isn't working. So they're wondering why they should vote for him, for more of the same old same old.

          He needs to state boldly what he plans to do differently to turn things around. And make a case that you must elect him and a Congress of Democrats  in order to get this done.

        •  That's the issue, isn't it? (0+ / 0-)

          But you can't win an argument if you haven't joined it. We actually know exactly what to do to get out of this depression. It's basic economics. We have to jack up spending by a huge amount. So there is no economic quandary here. There is, however, an enormous political problem. Voters are persuaded that the deficit is a monster that is eating the country. Feeding that monster is widely accepted as a bad thing. A very bad thing. My suggestion is to sidestep this perception a bit and argue to voters that the government will gladly borrow the money they already have in their retirement savings accounts for a time. To many Americans, this would be a nice little boost to their retirement accounts and would also be a very patriotic gesture. The fact that these funds would not have to paid pack until the depression was over would be a good deal. Sure, as WillR points out, it is a bit of a shell game. But perceptions matter; in fact politics is 90% perception. This is an argument the President could make and win. All he would be saying is that he wants to borrow some of the money we already have that's not doing too much right now in order to rescue the country. Seems pretty simple to me.

          The universe may have a meaning and a purpose, but it may just specifically not include you.

          by Anne Elk on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 03:01:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  There won't be any economic good news ... (6+ / 0-)

      Exceptionally little is going to change by September, and after that it won't matter.

      Both campaigns are going to go negative. The next few months are going to make the Battle of Agincourt look like high tea.

    •  you are correct (4+ / 0-)

      Bad job numbers and bad GDP numbers will continue to pull him down. Have you noticed every polls stats on the President's handling of the Economy, horrific numbers

  •  I'm going to be sick. (7+ / 0-)

    I can't imagine this country with Romney as its CEO... er, I mean President.

    Hyperbole will be the death of us all!

    by MrHinkyDink on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:36:12 AM PDT

  •  Economy is just going to get worse (7+ / 0-)

    Obama just has to make Romney totally unacceptable as a president. I would forget the Bain attacks they are not working because everyone knows Romney is a vulture capitalist.   Just hit him on his secretive ways especially his lack of releasing taxes along with Obama trying to run some positive ads.

    •  Saw an Article in another diary (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, TofG

      That shows just exactly the opposite.

    •  If you say the economy is going to get worse... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG

      then just wrap up and go home....because if that happens...Romney is insulated...even if a video of him with a 12 yr old boy in bed pops up....
      ...I'm optimistic that July till Oct should provide us with 100K+ jobs and in this environment that's positive numbers...anything above a 100k gives a "good feeling" and below just the opposite.

      "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

      by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 02:36:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think it would be nice (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      to see people on the cable news shows speak up for the president once in awhile.All I ever see on CNN(i forbid Fox on my tv)are Republicans spinning.I never see democrats.Maybe they're on C-Span but I  don't see them anywhere else.In 2000 and 2004 all I saw were people racing to appear on news shows to defend Dubya.Why doesn't Obama have this I'm  not seeing it.Can make a difference in an election I think.

  •  Can I live in a country.. (10+ / 0-)

    that lets George Bush be president for 8 years and Barack Obama for only 4?  

  •  Ugh, wish I hadn't read this. (5+ / 0-)

    Now I have stomach ache.

    "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

    by lgmcp on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:36:50 AM PDT

  •  Romney stuck at 46 (4+ / 0-)

    Seems like Romney, in just about any reliable poll, is stuck at 46 or so, and he really will need at least 49 (and probably 50) to win.  

    I'd say 43% are fundamentally sold on anti-Obama.

    5% are genuine swing voters who probably lean Republican when push comes to shove.

    Everyone else is either for Obama or scared of Romney/the Republicans.  

    I still don't see how
    1) Romney culls together 270 EVs or
    2) Romney completes the sale with anyone outside of his 48% base

    The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. --George Orwell

    by jgkojak on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:37:03 AM PDT

    •  easy unemployment goes up a few more (4+ / 0-)

      percentage points between now and November.

      If it reaches say 8.4% or 8.5% then that means multiple months of trending down, and not sure how Obama survives that.

      If it stays around 8.2% give or take a percentage point, then Obama should be a slight favorite.

      If it gets down to 8.0 or one hopes 7.9 (for the psychological barrier breaking) then I'd say Obama in a rout.

      •  That's why I'm hoping we get a 100K+ jobs and (0+ / 0-)

        the unemployment rate ticks below 8.1 (just for the narative) that it fell...

        "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

        by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 02:41:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Obama should then focus his next campaign (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    commercials on the fact that Maas. was ranked was it 47th in the nation? for job creation,  under Romney, and keep hitting back that he wants to take the country forward, not backwards as Romney and the Repugs do, for what its worth.

  •  What happened? (10+ / 0-)

    It seems like just yesterday I was reading a diary right here at DailyKos about how Mitt had been DESTROYED  (plus a couple others about how he had been mocked, ridiculed, and humiliated).

    Am I getting bad information at this site perchance?

  •  Obama needs to attack the Ryan plan (10+ / 0-)

    And Romney's support of it. I hope that is the next phase of the campaign.

  •  Trends (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lysias, cocinero

    Poll confirms my belief that an incumbent President can't be the "face" of a ruthlessly negative campaign.  I think the ruthlessly negative campaign against Mitty has to continue, but I think the surrogates and the Super Pacs ought to be waging it.  The President needs to shift gears to the positive side, emphasizing how he will continue to govern in the next four years.

    "The test of our progress is not whether we add to the abundance of those who have much. It is whether we provide enough to those who have little. " --Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by jg6544 on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:43:46 AM PDT

    •  Still . . . (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      If you look at the Huffpo state-by-state polls summary, if the President holds his lead in all of the states in which he's leading or which lean toward him, he gets 272 electoral votes and wins.  If the "tossup" states in which he has a lead within the margin of error hold for him, he wins with 332 electoral votes.  So far, the only states Mitty seems to be on track to flip are Indiana and N.Carolina.

      "The test of our progress is not whether we add to the abundance of those who have much. It is whether we provide enough to those who have little. " --Franklin D. Roosevelt

      by jg6544 on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:51:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Are You in a Swing State? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Micheline

      We are hearing these kinds of ads all the time here.  They just don't get the media attention that the Bain ads and the tax return ads get.

  •  This is all that "You didn't build this" crap (7+ / 0-)

    It is having an effect on the uninformed voters who hear the mangled soundbite and aren't given the whole quote. It seems to have resonated in a way Romney's other attacks haven't. Down here in Red America, we're getting inundated in it, so I can only imagine how it's being used (and apparently effectively) in the swing states.

    What's the old saying about a lie traveling half-way around the world before the truth pulls its pants on in the morning?

    Electing conservatives is like hiring a carpenter who thinks hammers are evil.

    by bwintx on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:45:47 AM PDT

    •  Agreed, even folks who never post political stuff (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Delilah, bwintx, LordMike

      on Facebook are furious with this comment from the President that was taken out of context..I mean really really angry at him.  And they tend to be non political types overall and some swing voter types.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:58:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Indeed (6+ / 0-)

      I can't comprehend why the Obama campaign keeps drawing attention to it either...  The argument was badly advanced by the president in the first place (love him but he screwed up the delivery) and now he's paying for it.  No one is even talking about Bain or taxes right now. Instead, they're hammering the president on this issue and it is having a negative effect.

      I know we liberals loved Elizabeth Warren's original argument on this matter... and I agree with its constituent element that we're all connected and part of a bigger whole that builds this country.  But political arguments are not always about facts... they are about sentiment and sound bites.  And in a country of idiots (and we live in a country of idiots -- see Election 2004 for evidence), you can't bet against the whole American individualist "he made it on his own" (gender specificity intended) mentality.  People believe this shit.  

      I vote Democratic because I am a woman with self-respect , who rejects bigotry of all kinds, subscribes to science, believes in universal health care, embraces unions, and endorses smart internationalist foreign policy.

      by Delilah on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:05:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yup. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bwintx, LordMike, cardinal, coffejoe

      GOP is having a field day with it.  I've seen the meme stuff based around the "quote" popping up in usually non-political sites.

      I suspect it will be folded into the earlier attack of "Obama didn't give credit to the actual SEALS" and will become the foundation of the Romney campaign from here on out.  

      It was a clunky message when Warren went for it, I don't know who told Pres Obama that would be a winning message even if he didn't trip over his words.  Americans have the engraved fairy tale that they are all self-made, pulled themselves up by their bootstraps type.  So telling folks you got a lot of help along the way is thus basically telling folks you are not as special or exceptional as you believe yourself to be - helluva campaign message Chicago.

      Before that remark the Romney campaigh had John Freaking Sununu spouting off about cocaine using toddler Barack.  Bain was in the news and even Republicans were calling for Romney to release taxes.  Now Romney is hitting on all cylinders with an attack that will allow him to frame Pres Obama in a new way that will stick.  

      •  Yes, I fear it will be (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Dancing Frog, GRLionsFan

        the 2012 equivalent of "clinging to their guns and their religion" -- a remarkably true statement which nonetheless was politically inadvisable and an easy target for the Rethugs' distortion tactics.

        Electing conservatives is like hiring a carpenter who thinks hammers are evil.

        by bwintx on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:49:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Well Warren has basically said the same thing and (0+ / 0-)

      it might win the election for her.  I agree with what the President said and I am glad he said it.

  •  Not good considering (0+ / 0-)

    Mitt had a rough couple of weeks with the tax return stuff.......didn't work so no sense harping on it - public must not give a shit.

    The care of human life and happiness, and not their destruction, is the first and only legitimate object of good government. - Thomas Jefferson

    by ctexrep on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:47:24 AM PDT

  •  that is depressing (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, JanL

    all those Bain ads and the tax return secrecy and Romney improves his numbers?

    "I'm sculpting now. Landscapes mostly." ~ Yogi Bear

    by eXtina on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:47:58 AM PDT

    •  It's possible that the numbers would be even (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      winnie71

      worse without all those Bain ads and tax secrecy. We're back where we were in 1992 when it was "the economy, stupid," and the past few months the economic reports have been grim.

      It looks like they'll continue to be grim, so I would be prepared for a continuing downward trend in Obama's numbers.

      Unless Obama comes up with a bold, new economic plan, he's in big trouble. He's seen as the status quo and the status quo isn't working. Why should people vote for more of the same? That's the question friends of mine sitting on the fence keep asking me.

  •  This is pre Democratic convention too as time , we (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wildthumb, Vote4Obamain2012, Delilah

    get our convention after the Republicans and later in the summer.  I think the convention should help his numbers. I believe it is possible.  

    Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

    by wishingwell on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:51:07 AM PDT

    •  I keep telling myself that... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      But I prefer to go into August with us well ahead of R-Money and his corporatist hacks.

      I vote Democratic because I am a woman with self-respect , who rejects bigotry of all kinds, subscribes to science, believes in universal health care, embraces unions, and endorses smart internationalist foreign policy.

      by Delilah on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:06:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Walker Recall Vote IMPOSSIBLE (0+ / 0-)

    Using polls to rationalize the Walker win?

    Someone is Lying, Cheating, or Stealing

    The exit polls taken of voters leaving the schools and community halls on June 5 show 51% favored Obama over Romney 44%. All those Obama supporters voted for Walker? Hard to believe?

    So, why would such a high, unlikely, and statistically impossible number of people who favor Obama, vote for Walker? Obama carried Wisconsin by 14 points over McCann in the presidential election, so the exit poll reflects an 7 point slide since then. Yet, the defections of people who voted for Obama in ’08 – that voted for Walker in the recall election are far and away larger than any reasonable rationalization can justify. (Read much more and see the defection from the Obama '08 vote that will convince you of election fraud}

    •  Some Democratic-leaning voters didn't like (0+ / 0-)

      a recall over a merely political disagreement, with no ethics problem.

      The influence of the [executive] has increased, is increasing, and ought to be diminished.

      by lysias on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:03:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I have family members who probably voted that way (0+ / 0-)

      I hate to burst your bubble, but plenty of people of all political stripes were annoyed by the Wisconsin recall process.  You should really try taking the electorate's pulse before making unsubstantiated claims of fraud, otherwise you sound like a Republican.  

      The pleasure of hating...eats into the heart of religion...[and] makes patriotism an excuse for carrying fire, pestilence, and famine into other lands. - W. Hazlitt

      by rfahey22 on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:25:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ticket splitting is quite possible (0+ / 0-)

      and happens a lot here in Wisconsin. Differences between presidential and gubernatorial votes are not evidence of fraud except for some very specific circumstances, such as the total vote for governor (meaning all candidates) being more than the total vote for president when the elections are being held on the same day.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:27:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don't think he's going to lose, but (7+ / 0-)

    if he does, we can trace it all back to 2009.  The stimulus was too small and he lost control (actually, surrendered control) of the Health Care debate.  Both are symptoms of being excessively bi-partisan, believing his naive message about being post-partisan, and ignoring Mitch McConnell's vow.  

    Had the stimulus been robust, we'd be at less than 7% unemployment, a virtual morning in America.  Had he rammed health care thru instead of losing 6 precious months while Baucus dithered, we might have even saved Congress.

    Krugman predicted it; this community saw it coming as well.  Regardless, water under the bridge.

    I still think he'll win because I think his campaign is smarter and better than Romney's, and because we can take the needed swing states, national numbers be damned.  But we'll see.

  •  I heard Dan Rather saying this election is 50/50 (9+ / 0-)

    It will be a close election.  The GOP have been planning to defeat President Obama on the day he took the oath of office.  And because of Citizens United, they have the money to put an outsourcing robot in office.

    Between SCOTUS, the House and the media, we have little room for error in getting our people to the polls.

  •  It's the economy, stupid, and the Bain ads (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    duha, coffeetalk, JanL, coffejoe

    have not worked.  Poll gives Romney lead on economy despite Obama’s Bain attacks:

    A strong majority of Americans say Mitt Romney’s background in the private sector, including his management at the private equity firm he founded, Bain Capital, would help him make the right decisions on the economy.

    According to a new USA Today-Gallup poll, 63 percent viewed Romney’s business background as a strength in handling the country’s economic woes, versus 29 percent who viewed it negatively.

    The poll raises questions over the effectiveness of the Obama campaign’s barrage of attacks highlighting instances of outsourcing by companies Bain invested in and businesses that folded or laid off workers after being acquired by the private equity firm.

    The influence of the [executive] has increased, is increasing, and ought to be diminished.

    by lysias on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:54:00 AM PDT

  •  Massive GOTV can make a difference but we must (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elliott, Vote4Obamain2012, JanL

    include with our GOTV about how to get the proper photo ID that will be accepted at the polls in many of these states with new laws since the last presidential election.

    As my fear is people will go to vote and be turned away for having the wrong ID or no ID.  That could turn the election in battleground states with these new laws.

    We have to be very thorough and very detailed in our GOTV. That is why I am getting involved in this starting this weekend. We are receiving additional training on this because of the New Voter ID law.  

    Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

    by wishingwell on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:54:29 AM PDT

  •  His new, positive as is just starting to run (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    He can't attack Romney during the Olympics, unless he makes a serious foreign policy mistake on his trip.

    Negative ads can turn people off in the short term, but the anti Mitt ads have a lot of info people need to know.

    This poll, also out today, is a lot more optimistic: says the ads are having effects where they need to:

    Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Obama attacks on taxes & Bain hit Romney ratings http://is.gd/... seems to contradict Gallup/USAToday poll

    "All politics is national."

    by Auriandra on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:54:53 AM PDT

  •  I think the Romney attack ads are working (6+ / 0-)

    I live in Maryland but get the Virginia overflow. There's one with a woman speaking in a soft, insinuating voice. It is shown incessantly. I think it is wearing people down. And I don't know what to do about it.

    Obama's negative ads make you have to think; Romney's work on the reptilian brain and get under a person's defenses.

    You fell victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is "Never get involved in a land war in Asia".

    by yellowdog on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:55:17 AM PDT

  •  Yep. I think the numbers are trending down, (3+ / 0-)

    even after Romney has had a bad few weeks and Obama
    has had some good ones. I get that sinking feeling, but please get that we can either pay undue attention to "sinking feelings" or we can stay out of that and keep working no matter what the polls say. And that includes when polls say things are good for Obama.

    Remember that a lot of this stuff is purely psychological, and those with the most energy and hard work can win.

    I was seeing what Adam had seen on the morning of his creation - the miracle, moment by moment, of naked existence. --The Doors of Perception, Aldous Huxley

    by Wildthumb on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:55:29 AM PDT

  •  4 yrs of "bipartisanship" does this (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    NOW SHOWING
    Progressive Candidate Obama (now - Nov 6, 2012)
    Bipartisan Obama returns (Nov 7, 2012)

    by The Dead Man on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:56:25 AM PDT

  •  error (0+ / 0-)

    the largest difference on the upper chart is 8%.  that's the error rate one would expect if one randomly sampled 157 people and those people were normally distributed.   considering all nation-wide polling, their published methods, and "error corrections", i think they'd be lucky to be getting as much as 157 properly sampled results.   in short, given the current state of modern polling (and the methods they're forced to retreat to given cell phones), i would state that there's zero information there until you get into the consistently returned >10% difference range.   ("man.. you're just in denial that half of the country is composed of drooling idiots"   ...well, that as well)

  •  states vs national (3+ / 0-)

    look, Obama isn't even advertising in Georgia and Tennessee and TX. So let him lose there by 50%. Who cares?
    As long as he wins the battleground states, he wins the election.
    So why worry about the national polls?

    Obama 2012...going to win it with our support!!!

    by mattinjersey on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:57:10 AM PDT

    •  can't you say the same thing about blue states? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WillR

      CA + NY + IL = over 20% of the electorate.

      TN + AL + LA + SC + KY + OK + MS + KS + AR + UT + NE + WV + ID + MT + SD + AK + ND + WY = 17% of the electorate

      NY-22 (old and new)

      by elucas730 on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:49:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Why worry? Because national polls are (0+ / 0-)

      more reliable at this stage of the game than state polls, on account of their vastly greater frequency and cumulative sample size that goes into the averages.

      If the states are in the same condition after Labor Day, then we can start to breathe easier. But, even though the election is obviously decided by swing states rather than the national margin, the national polls give us a better insight into what it will be at this point, as counterintuitive as that might seem.

      You are reading my signature line. #hashtag

      by cardinal on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:53:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Probably has to do with the sampling period... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, Noah Andersen, LordMike

    Poll was in the field during heavy Colorado news coverage during which time an older demographic was easily available (watching the news) to answer the telephone.

    National trackers showed this too, but are already beginning to stabilize back to normal.

  •  FWIW (7+ / 0-)

    A dissenting opinion that might make everybody here feel a little better: http://www.reuters.com/...

    According to Reuters, the Bain ads ARE taking a toll on Romney's campaign.

  •  Everyone, please chill out (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, Fury, EcosseNJ

    It's not even August.
    And it's only one poll.

    "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

    by Coco Usagi on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:58:07 AM PDT

  •  Hopefully this will jolt people out of the (8+ / 0-)

    Dem Blog Bubble.

    I mentioned this on one of those diaries the other day asking whether or not Romney would be the nominee because there's some deep dark secret in the tax returns.

    The average American could give a shit about those tax returns, this is a political junkie issue.  For non-political junkies, they understand Romney is a rich as fuck businessman, and assume his people know all of the tricks and loopholes.

    What Americans give a shit about is the fact that the economy still sucks.  That the job market still sucks.  That they are still losing their homes.  That they are still drowning in debt.

    I like Michelle more than Barack.

    by duha on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:01:07 PM PDT

  •  OTOH: Check Out the Electoral College (4+ / 0-)

    http://realclearpolitics.com/...

    Obama leads 332-206. Obama could give up Florida, Michigan and Iowa (the swing states where his lead is smallest) and still win the Electoral College. Media doesn't discuss this b/c they have a vested interest in the "horserace" narrative.

    Democracy - Not Plutocracy!

    by vulcangrrl on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:03:22 PM PDT

  •  it's just one tied poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, jdsnebraska, EcosseNJ

    If Obama is really 1-2 points ahead, you would expect to see the occasional tied poll and smaller number of Romney leading polls. Don't freak out.

    The pollster average is the concerning thing, as it looks like a 2-point race has moved to a 0.5-point race.  But it's not as if the O-man is losing in the pollster average (although it's not so good that it all-but guarantees a win).  

    I know some people hate the happy-talk, but "working like you are five points behind" is exactly the kind of thing that makes a difference in a statistically tied race. WHICH IS WHERE WE ARE.

    So, with the pot/kettle/blackness thing in mind, I need to match my 2008 contributions to Obama.....

  •  Romney winning 17% & 39% (6+ / 0-)

    of Black and Latino voters? Really PPP? I take this poll w/ a grain of salt.

  •  Check today's Reuters/Ipsos poll (link below) (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, jamfan

    The internals, in particular, are encouraging:

    Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Obama attacks on taxes & Bain hit Romney ratings http://is.gd/... seems to contradict Gallup/USAToday poll:

    o 26% independents view Romney less favorably based on BUSINESS tenure; 13% more favorably

    o 37% reg voters view Romney less favorably based on his TAX issues; 30% Independents agree

    [What worries me most is when "likely voters" replace "registered voters"]

    "All politics is national."

    by Auriandra on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:13:50 PM PDT

    •  This does look promising. This poll (0+ / 0-)

      has generally been a little more favorable to the President, so in a sense I guess it depends how you define the electorate and whether indies are truly moderates or more hardened conservatives (tea party types) who don't want to be specifically identified with the GOP.

      Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

      by khyber900 on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:46:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm not a pollster... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rennert

    ...but this poll has Romney losing women by only 2 percentage points and getting 17 percent of the African-American vote. Doesn't sound right to me.

  •  The crosstabs show it's noise (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sportsman885

    From the methodology: "PPP weights its polls for race, age, and gender to ensure its surveys properly represent the population. (Note: PPP does not weight for party identification.)"

    Nothing wrong with that; I think weighting by party ID is hard to do well and prone to distortion. But it is still useful to look at it as a crosstab.

    Party Identification, this tied poll: 38D 37R 25I  (D - R = 1)
    Previous week's poll: 39D 32R 29I   (D - R = 7)

    You can't read too much into crosstabs, especially party identification, but it at least indicates the possibility of a more Republican-identifying than usual sample this week.

  •  And yet (0+ / 0-)

    Electoral-vote.com shows Barack smoking Mitt 323 to 205.  This result is based on a rolling average of state level polls which are certainly more relevant than national horserace polls.

    Reporting from Tea Bagger occupied America

    by DrJohnB on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:17:51 PM PDT

  •  We've got some deprogramming to do (0+ / 0-)

    too many brainwashed, bitter people out there

    Re-elect President Obama because we don't need another selfish President

    by Timmethy on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:18:46 PM PDT

  •  I Hate To Be Picky With The PPP Poll (0+ / 0-)

    but President Obama getting less of democrats then Romney getting republicans don't look right to me.  Something is just wrong with that picture.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:18:55 PM PDT

  •  Ladies and Gentlemen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, lysias, Micheline

    If the President loses Pa it will be hard to see a path to victory.  On Wednesday there is a hearing to get an injunction against the voter id law in that state that would keep the law from going into effect until after the November election.  I am hoping the injunction is granted because the feeling in the Obama Campaign is that those 758,000 Pa voters without proper id don't vote anyway and are not worth wasting time on.  After living through Florida in 2000 where only 35,000 were kept from voting I don't share that opinion.  After all President Obama was elected in no small part by voters who were voting for the first time.  This is not 2008 when Americans basically were sick of the Republicans.  This election will be close and every vote will count!

  •  obama needs some good economic news (0+ / 0-)

    obama continually "wins" these messaging battles, like over bain and offshoring, but then why doesn't he get any traction in the polls?  it's like he is swimming against the tide.  either he needs something to give people hope on the economy and jobs, or else something far more damaging against romney.

  •  Thoughts about the FIRMS ad inspiring the base (0+ / 0-)

    and turning off crossover voters?

    Frankly, I thought is was a good punch but now I am tiring of it.

    The Muslim said "I wished I had met Christ before I met the Christians" - Rev. Marvin Winins

    by captainlaser on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:24:21 PM PDT

  •  At this point (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rolodomo, Williston Barrett

    Jobs numbers need to improve and gas prices need to stay in check.  If those two things happen believe with all my heart Obama will win easily.  If not, it's going to be tough and very very close.  

    Two things Obama has no control over will determine his fate.  Blah.  

    Is there any room for Obama moderates around here?

    by Bagger on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:27:42 PM PDT

  •  Romney with 39% Latino Vote (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Superpole

    That is the largest I have seen. Most show him receiving trhe upper 20's at best. I think there lies the problem with this poll Gallup still has Obama ahead

    a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

    by Jamesleo on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:36:10 PM PDT

  •  New WSJ Poll looks like.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    it will similar to last one judging the tea leaves:

    http://blogs.wsj.com/...

  •  Yes Virginia, people are idiots. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Superpole, johnbrown12962

    There are only 3 reasons people should be supporting Romney.

    1 Youre in the 1%

    2 Youre as ignorant as a rock.

    3 Youre a racist.

    Thats it.  There are no other good reasons.  

    With a person like Romney running, this race shouldnt even be close.

    •  Does this Apply (0+ / 0-)

      to independents who are supporting Rmoney bcause they think he's "better for the economy"?

      "A civilization which does not provide young people with a way to earn a living is pretty poor". Eleanor Roosevelt

      by Superpole on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:52:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama ads (demeaning) ? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Superpole

    I hear a lot of my fellow Democrats complaining about the ad in which Willard sings. The message is lost on many viewers or listeners. Perhaps this ad itself and the sheer numbers of this and other negative ads are causing voter embarrassment and so the support appears to be weakening.  
    Bob O.

    •  IMHO... (0+ / 0-)

      i know it's a religiously held believe here negative ads are the greatest thing since sliced bread-- but I don't buy it

      I'm reading articles these may be actually hurting Obama.. but whatever, continue and let's see what happens.

      back in 1999, 2000 plenty of democratic "experts" were crowing Gore was going to "win in a landslide".

      we see what happened there

      "A civilization which does not provide young people with a way to earn a living is pretty poor". Eleanor Roosevelt

      by Superpole on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:51:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Still can't fathom how it's not (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    johnbrown12962

    a landslide.

    Rich, out of touch flake vs. The guy who got Osama

    "All you Obama bashers couldn't post your comments on this website were it not for government funding of the internet. Checkmate!"~Anon

    by Therapy on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:05:59 PM PDT

  •  by all rights Romney should be ahead (0+ / 0-)

    by 4-6 pts given the state of the economy and the fickle, impatient nature of voters.

  •  intelligent electorate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    johnbrown12962

    National polls mean very little in our state by state system. Yet, it's frightening to think that nearly half the people in this country are ready and willing to vote for greying temples and an empty suit. Plus, Romney hasn't even begun to spend the massive amounts of tainted contributions he is collecting. If middle class working people choose this phoney, they deserve what they are going to get. And it won't be pretty.

  •  A TIE.... wow (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Micheline

    Not surprising.

    massive UNemployment, rampant bigotry in our nation, and Obama/congress hardly getting anything accomplished in the last 3.5 years.

    "A civilization which does not provide young people with a way to earn a living is pretty poor". Eleanor Roosevelt

    by Superpole on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:48:52 PM PDT

  •  so much for all of that delusional talk about (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    johnbrown12962

    Mittch-A-Sketch possibly being dumped as the presidential nominee of those Grand Old Prostitutes due to the fuss over Bain and his secret tax returns.

    A couple of weeks ago people were writing Mittch-A-Sketch's political obituary, without one shred of evidence that it was even remotely possible.

    And yet...despite all of that lousy press by Mittch-A-Sketch, he has, in fact, improved nationally against President Obama.

    To me this race seems to have a lot of parallels to 1980, when the incumbent Democratic president, Jimmy Carter, was leading Reagan at this stage in the campaign and Reagan came across as intellectually weak and superficial.
    However, due to a lackluster economy and massive organization of the typical Republican co-conspirators behind the scenes, as well as the usual massive Republican money advantage, Reagan went on to win.

    If the economy doesn't at least improve somewhat, even marginally, between now and October, my guess is that this will be a nail-biter right through November, with the possibility that Mittch-A-Sketch pulls out the election in the end with a different type of "October surprise" in the form of massive amounts of unlimited secret corporate cash--perhaps a half a billion dollars or so-- over the final two weeks, focused on just 5-7 swing states Romney would need to purchase himself the White House.

    Not only is this election not over like so many people were claiming just two weeks ago, but, unless the economy shows some improvement, the odds could quickly turn to Mittch-A-Sketch's favor after the conventions.

  •  This Poll is bad for Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Micheline

    If true, he is in deep trouble.  I do think voter malaise about the state of the economy for such a long period of time is the ONLY thing keeping Romney in this, but this one thing is also deep and big enough that it could very well bring him across the finish line.

    The fact that Romeny is a horrible retail candidate, that he comes off like some weird, lying piece of do do, would normally send him into Mondale oblivion, but again the long stretch of bad economic times is bouying him up quite alot.

  •  Stunned this election is even close. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    coffejoe

    My guess is that the poor and middle class in our country like suffering and admire the very wealthy.Why else would people ignore the damage Bush had done to the country that Obama is trying to repair with little or no help from the opposition and want to go back to the same policies again?If voters elect Romney  this country deserves him.They can go back to their tvs(if they can pay their cable bills) and watch Snooki.

  •  Reality Check on PPP internals/weighting? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Davidsfr, rolodomo, EcosseNJ

                   
    Thursday:  Obama 48         Romney     45   Undecided 7
    Friday                    41                           49                   10
    Saturday               50                           45                      5
    Sunday                  51                           36                    13

    If you average the days it's 47.5 Obama, 43. 75 Romney.
    Obama is above 47% on 3 of the 4 days.  Romney only once.  Obama is at 50% or above twice.  None for Romney.  If one bad Romney day rolls off, you are loking at a poll with Obama ahead...maybe by a lot?!?!

    Obama leads on 3 of the 4 polling days.  Last poll, he led in 2 of the 4 and was tied twice.  

    Clearly there is a more conservative tilt to the weighting of the respondents that PPP is using.  Also, Romney's take of the african american vote and latino vote is too high as compared to most polling.  

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 02:13:41 PM PDT

  •  See Nate's 538 blog (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Davidsfr

    for a comprehensive summary of all the available data, rather than some needle swinging with each blip. Statistical noise is not just some pro forma caveat, it's very real.  The race remains very close, but with a slight Obama edge. Maybe those last polls are ominous, but they're also completely consistent with simple random noise about a constant small edge.

    Michael Weissman UID 197542

    by docmidwest on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 03:07:47 PM PDT

  •  PPP tweeting much better news on MI & PA (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, LordMike, askew
    Not a great weekend for Obama on our national poll but he's up by solid margins on the MI and PA polls we'll have out in the morning
    They say specifically he leads MI by double digits, pretty much confirms Ras's poll earlier.
  •  NBC/WSJ poll has Obama up 6 nationally. And doing (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, askew

    well in battleground states. Now just imagine if Corbett's voter suppression law is overturned.

    "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

    by TofG on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 04:14:20 PM PDT

  •  This PPP natl poll has some REAL problems (0+ / 0-)

    http://dailykos.com/...

    Click through to the details of the poll above.

    Obama leads Romney with women by only 2 points?

    What the hell kind of methodology are they employing that shows 17% of blacks voting for Romney and just 56% Hispanics voting for Obama ???

    I'm sorry, but those #s do not add-up at all and do not match other national polls. This one has some serious problems.

  •  Polls (0+ / 0-)

    If the president were more radical, this would not be happening.

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