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8:57 AM PT: IL-12: It took a month, but Democrats finally have their man: To little surprise, they unanimously picked Bill Enyart, who recently stepped down as commander of the Illinois National Guard. Ten candidates had applied to serve as replacements for Brad Harriman, who unexpectedly dropped out in May due to health reasons, but only seven showed up on Saturday for interviews with the selection committee. Aside from Enyart, the most notable names were state Rep. John Bradley and ex-Rep. David Phelps. Others included Anne Keeley, an unsuccessful judicial candidate in this year's primaries, architect Rob Anderson, Some Dude Jeremy Lincicum (who claims to already be running as an independent), and Army reservist Edward Vowell.

9:13 AM PT: CT-05: Despite a major setback involving the arrest of his finance director on charges of fundraising fraud late last month, state House Speaker Chris Donovan continues to rack up major labor endorsements—a very healthy sign for his campaign. Over the weekend, the SEIU State Council, which represents over 65,000 members in Connecticut, gave Donovan their backing. Earlier in the week, another big union, the 35,000-member AFSCME Council 4, also endorsed him.

9:20 AM PT: Donovan's campaign also previously hired a former U.S. Attorney, Stan Twardy, to conduct what they're calling an independent investigation of the alleged campaign finance fraud. Twardy says he expects to complete his findings this week and will turn them over to the campaign and the current U.S. Attorney responsible for the case. A Donovan spokesman says that the results will only be made public if the U.S. Attorney permits it.

9:24 AM PT: MO-Sen: Businessman John Brunner claims to have a big lead in the GOP primary, according to his new internal poll from American Viewpoint. Brunner is at a nice round 40, doubling up both Rep. Todd Akin and former Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who are at 20 apiece. The primary is August 7.

9:33 AM PT: NH-Gov: Rasmussen Reports: Jackie Cilley (D): 39, Ovide Lamontagne (R): 41; Jackie Cilley (D): 39, Kevin Smith (R): 37; Maggie Hassan (D): 36, Ovide Lamontagne (R): 42; Maggie Hassan (D): 36, Kevin Smith (R): 39.

9:37 AM PT: WA-01: Fail:

In a roundtable debate on KING 5's "Up Front,'' which aired Sunday, Republican congressional candidate John Koster responded to a question about gay marriage like this: "There is no Federal Defense of Marriage Act that I know of. Gays and lesbians have a right to live as they choose. They don't have a right to redefine marriage for all of us."
Here's how Koster tried to recover when later called on his blunder:
"Of course I know there's DOMA," he said. He said he'd intended to say that with the Obama Administration's decision to not defend the law, the issue was left to the states.
Also: If gays and lesbians "have a right to live as they choose" (according to Koster), does that include the right to get married? For Koster, the answer is no: He says that same-sex marriage would "undermine the very cornerstone of our society."

9:44 AM PT: WA-Sen, WA-Gov: Biden Alert! The VPOTUS will visit Seattle next month to keynote a fundraiser for Dem Sen. Maria Cantwell. Gubernatorial candidate Jay Inslee will also be there, and it seems he's an indirect beneficiary as well, since proceeds will be split between Cantwell's campaign and the state Democratic party. Interestingly, the cost to attend the event is surprisingly modest, given the high level of the headline name: Tickets start at just $50. Obviously that's still a considerable expense for many people, but it's a lot more accessible than your typical high-dollar Vice Presidential fundraiser.

9:54 AM PT: CA Prop 29: California's Proposition 29, a ballot measure that would have added a $1-a-pack tax to cigarettes, has narrowly failed. It trails by some 28K votes with only about 110K left to count. Supporters, who spent $12 million on the effort, say it's "the closest ballot initiative in California history," and note that big tobacco companies (principally Philip Morris) spent $47 million to defeat it.

9:58 AM PT: SC-07: It's no surprise that Gov. Nikki Haley would take sides against ex-LG André Bauer—after all, they ran against one another in the 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary. But why did she wait until the last minute to endorse Horry County Council Chairman Tom Rice in Tuesday's runoff? That one I can't figure, especially since Haley took the somewhat unusual step (for someone in her position) of not just fluffing Rice but actually attacking Bauer, accusing him of "undercut[ting] the conservative agenda."

10:06 AM PT: MI-11: Somehow, Paulist tea partying teacher/veteran/reindeer farmer Kerry Bentivolio has come up with enough scratch ($10K, says Shira Toeplitz) to air a television ad boosting his candidacy. It's mostly just filled with platitudes about the "American dream" and also touts his military service. Bentivolio is the only Republican on the August primary ballot, though the local GOP establishment is trying to rally around ex-state Sen. Nancy Cassis's write-in campaign.

10:28 AM PT: FL-16: I'm not sure there's anything new in this report from CNN's Anderson Cooper on Vern Buchanan's serious ethical failings, but it's now the second time in less than two months that the national press has given serious exposure to the story. (The New York Times did so back in May.) One thing CNN did score was an interview with Sam Kazran, Buchanan's former business partner and one of his chief accusers. Click the link for the full details.

10:47 AM PT: NY-18: Interesting: Former GOP Gov. George Pataki's new super PAC, "Tipping Point," is tarring attorney Sean Maloney with robocalls, just ahead of Tuesday's Democratic primary. (The message attacks Maloney for his role in the Troopergate scandal back when he was an aide to ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer.) So why would Republicans be interfering here? I can only imagine that it's because they fear Maloney most in the general election.

Meanwhile, Maloney, who's been the target of negative mailers from his chief primary rival, physician Rich Becker, has fired back with one of his own. The flyer criticizes Becker for donating to Republican ex-Rep. Sue Kelly, who represented the predecessor to this seat (the old NY-19) until she lost to Democrat John Hall in 2006. Becker has previously called the contribution "a mistake."

11:12 AM PT (David Jarman): UT-Sen, UT-04: A new Dan Jones poll of Utah shows Orrin Hatch, unsurprisingly, with a big lead over Dan Liljenquist in Tuesday's GOP Senate primary; maybe more surprisingly, it also shows incumbent Dem Jim Matheson with a solid lead of Mia Love in the dark-red 4th. Click through for our full analysis.

12:44 PM PT: NY Redistricting: The amazing folks over at CUNY's Center for Urban Research (led by Prof. Steven Romalewski) have upgraded their interactive map of New York's new congressional districts to include ethnic breakdowns for each seat. CUNY includes not only the Census count for every district but also figures on the citizen voting-age population (or "CVAP"), an important measure that tells you who is actually eligible to vote. These numbers often vary considerably from a strict head-count, in large part because the Hispanic population tends to be younger and contain fewer citizens than other ethnic groups. You can mouse over each district to see the stats, and you can also find them summarized in table form here.

1:14 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-AG: Could Washington Dems pick up the two statewide offices that have long eluded them (AG and SoS) at the same time as losing the governor's chair for the first time in decades? Certainly a possibility:  Elway's poll from last week (which showed a big turnaround for Jay Inslee in the gubernatorial race, although he's still narrowly down) also finds Dem Bob Ferguson leading GOPer Reagan Dunn 28-26 in the Attorney General race, though with 42% undecided, that's not too conclusive.

1:15 PM PT: MI-01: House Majority PAC, the Democratic-aligned super PAC, is touting a new poll of Michigan's 1st Congressional District that shows a very tight race. The survey, from Garin-Hart-Yang, has GOP freshman Dan Benishek at just 40, while Democrat Gary McDowell is at 38. Those numbers, though, are actually better for Benishek than the last time HMP polled here—but that was a while ago (all the way back in January), and they were using a different pollster (PPP). In the prior poll, McDowell (who also ran here in 2010, losing by about 10 points) led Benishek 46-41. Still, 40% is not where an incumbent really wants to be.

1:26 PM PT: Colorado: PPP's Colorado remainders are very... remainder-y.

1:30 PM PT: MI-13: After successfully appealing a ruling that she hadn't submitted enough valid signatures, state Rep. Shanelle Jackson is back on the ballot in the Democratic primary. She's challenging veteran Rep. John Conyers, as are state Sens. Glenn Anderson and Bert Johnson, and Wayne-Westland school board member John Goci. Jackson hasn't even filed a single FEC report, though, so it's hard to imagine her presence making much difference.

1:34 PM PT: WY-Sen: Democrats have landed an actual candidate to run in the Wyoming Senate race: Albany County Commissioner Tim Chesnut.

2:25 PM PT: AZ-Sen: Rep. Trent Franks, who finally endorsed businessman Wil Cardon after dancing around the notion for some time, has now fully inserted himself into the GOP primary. He's cut an ad for Cardon in which he goes after the Club for Growth, which is trying to prop up Rep. Jeff Flake via attacks on Cardon's conservative bona fides. Franks says the Club's ads are "absolutely false" and promises that Cardon is a "conservative Reagan Republican."

2:38 PM PT: MN-08: Democrat Tarryl Clark is out with her second ad, which features steelworkers from northeastern Minnesota's Iron Range praising her for "fight[ing] for Minnesota families." Clark herself twice utters the phrase "our Minnesota," which may be a new emerging theme/slogan for her campaign.

2:55 PM PT: MT-Sen: I'm not going to keep a whip count of every elected official who says they won't attend their party's national convention this summer—I'm just not. But I do wonder if the traditional media will go nuts over Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg's refusal to go to Tampa the same they went berserk when a handful of Democrats said they wouldn't be making an appearance in Charlotte. Oh, wait, no: I don't wonder at all.

2:58 PM PT: OH-Sen: The DSCC has made a $2.3 million reservation of ad time in three Ohio markets—Cleveland, Dayton, and Youngstown—for the final five weeks of the election. Maggie Haberman notes that this doesn't include Columbus (you can see a market map here), though it likely will in the future, as an unnamed "source familiar with the DSCC's plans says that the buy is not finished, and more is expected."

3:15 PM PT: NY-08: A local group called the Sephardic Community Federation made a late expenditure targeting Charles Barron in Tuesday's Democratic primary. They spent $1,000 to run this mailer which declares: "Charles Barron hates you but loves hate-mongers and dictators." In the same vein, the right-wing Emergency Committee for Israel is supposedly airing an ad that features a string of Barron's greatest hits, but I'm skeptical as to whether it's on the air. It's a minute long, the production values suck (ultra-lengthy pauses to show title cards between clips), and the group hasn't filed an independent expenditure report. Plus, TV in New York is insanely expensive.

3:24 PM PT: RI-01: I'm reminded of Monty Python's seminal Election Night Special sketch, where a reporter informs Kevin Philips Bong (Slightly Silly Party): "You polled no votes at all. Not a sausage." Self-described "conservative Democrat" Anthony Gemma also came up sausage-less at Rhode Island's state Democratic convention over the weekend. Will Collette tells us (with emphasis in the original):

When it came time for nominations, one delegate, who said she grew up as a friend of Gemma's back in the day, stood to put his name in nomination. When Party Chair Ed Pachecho asked, not once but three times, if any delegate would second the nomination, not one delegate among the 200+ would do so.
Anthony Gemma may have better luck seeking the nomination from the Very Silly Party.

3:33 PM PT: CA-07: GOP Rep. Dan Lungren is showing some serious rust... which is quite remarkable, considering he endured a stiff challenge from physician Ami Bera last cycle and faces a rematch this year. Last week, you'll recall that Lungren made the absurd decision to defend a fraudulent voter registration drive undertaken on his behalf. Now his campaign is flailing, telling a local television station: "The campaign was not involved." So which is it, Congressman? Note: This is a great object lesson in how not to handle a scandal on the campaign trail.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 08:03:40 AM PDT

  •  Today I visited my soon-to-be workplace... (11+ / 0-)

    and received a crapton of literature. Combined with this diary, I'll have reading material for at least a month.

    Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 08:07:01 AM PDT

  •  Iowans may get first and last word this time... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike
    Typically ignored after its caucuses, their state could help decide the president.
    Restive Iowa could be a presidential decider...
  •  Thank you (6+ / 0-)

    For this list of people who aren't tired of the endless waiting for the SCOTUS ruling on the Affordable Care Act.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 08:13:41 AM PDT

  •  So now that SCOTUS dropped some big rulings today (7+ / 0-)

    ... Any guesses on the political fallout? I'm sure OFA must be smiling right now. Arizona's SB 1070 isn't completely gone, but it's been severely curtailed. It's another opportunity to remind everyone of Mitt Romney's immigration adviser, the supposed "legal eagle" who cares so much about the law that he can't follow the nation's top law!

    And are there any Montana experts in the House who want to talk about the campaign finance law getting struck down?

    •  OFA isn't smiling... (0+ / 0-)

      A law upholding SB1070 would have been bad for Romney and good for Obama.  It certainly would have helped motivate Latinos more.  This is certainly what the court had in mind when they gave Romney a mulligan.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 08:20:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The most controversial part is still there (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 08:21:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  No, I think this is the best case scenario (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, itskevin, atdnext, askew, MichaelNY

        Most of the law struck down, but the most controversial part upheld. That will motivate Hispanics even more, and there will be pressure on Romney to endorse papers please, since it was upheld.

        •  NOT upheld (15+ / 0-)

          There is a lot of misunderstanding on this.

          The police check provision was NOT upheld.  It just wasn't struck down.

          "Upheld" would've meant SCOTUS held it definitively Constitutional, so that no lower court could again find against it.

          But SCOTUS instead said it's not plainly unconstitutional on its face, but could be in interpretation and application, and there's not enough information on interpretation or application to say either way.  And lower courts can still strike it down as more is revealed.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 08:56:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, atdnext

            I don't know though why so many conservatives are proclaiming this as a victory. Just because the card-check, (which is certainly not going to profile any blond hair, blue-eyed people), remained in place, Kennedy even wrote, "As a general rule, it is not a crime for a removable alien to remain present in the United States."

            Simply put, my understanding of the court ruling is that not only can no one be arrested solely for not having their papers, the state can also not deport people or hold people in jail for being their illegally and can only report to the Federal authorities, making sense because this is not a state issue, it is an international and interstate issue that falls under traditional Federal authority.

            Scalia went absolutely insane this time around though:

            "Scalia even relied on hyperbole – saying Arizona would not have joined the union of the United States if it had known how the ruling would come down – in his attack on the White House."
            But it's good to know that Kennedy and (Alito?), are sometimes reasonable swing votes. It surprises me Democrats embraced Roberts' nomination so much, while almost filibustering Alito. Of the two, Roberts has been far more the dishonest ideologue and Bench activist.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:22:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  But Roberts (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              aamail6, atdnext, DCCyclone

              was in the majority on this one, no? Of the two, Alito seems to me the more doctrinaire so far.

              •  Hmm? (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                atdnext, DCCyclone, LordMike, MichaelNY
                Plus, the Justices struck down the other parts of the law necessary to make it tough for illegal aliens to remain here. They struck down the section of the law making it a crime to apply for or hold a job in Arizona without legal work authority, the section allowing a police officer to arrest someone if the officer believes that he has committed a crime that could cause him to be deported, no matter where the crime took place, and the section making it a violation of Arizona law for immigrants not to carry valid immigration papers (it’s disappointing that Justice Alito voted with the majority on this provision and that Justice Roberts voted with them on all three of these provisions). So, essentially, the Supremes rendered the law toothless by giving the police the ability to check if someone is here illegally and do little else other than check.
                Perhaps I was a bit off.

                Here is some tough to read stuff to get a feel for how conservatives really feel. They aren't stupid.

                http://www.debbieschlussel.com/...

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 02:03:06 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  If that's "tough to read"... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  LordMike

                  ...you don't bother reading very many conservatives!

                  To which I say, good for you!

                  Schlussel is awful, but that particular piece is very tame for what conservatives normally say.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 06:37:55 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Tame? (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, sapelcovits, gabjoh

                    It tosses in plenty of inaccurate racist stereotypes of hispanics while misrepresenting Obama's stance on the issue and his level of enforcement.

                    I hate how our media is totally silent and clueless about this facet, and if anything rushes to paint the people who call this racism, as extremists or hard-leftists non-mainstream sorts. It's like no one understands that racism doesn't begin and end with openly saying, "This race, this ethnicity and culture, is inferior to mine." No, racism is also presenting unfair biases, double-standards, and in furthering negative perceptions and prejudices that have little basis in fact (indeed in my Latin American Studies class, there was an essay that made a compelling argument that the crime rate among illegal immigrants is actually way lower than where you'd expect it be, compared to other minority groups and accounting for poverty and lack of social infrastructure and access).

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 03:57:26 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

      •  IMHO Latinos are still motivated... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JGibson, Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

        And as long as Kris Kobach and Joe Arpaio are brought back into the headlines, that's bad news for Romney.

    •  Yeah, politically, the AZ decision is great news (6+ / 0-)

      for Obama. Most of the headlines I see are negative for AZ. The decision bolsters Obama's case for national reform.

      But with papers please being upheld for now(court said they could review it again), it puts Romney in a position to endorse it.

      •  Agreed on it being great news (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        atdnext, LordMike, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        The "papers please" provision will probably only be enforced for a few weeks until a sympathetic Hispanic is profiled and there's a lawsuit. Given the Court's openness to the possibility that its could be unconstitutional as applied, I think either a district judge or the 9th circuit will stay the law.

        It's hard to predict the media coverage, but there's a chance this lawsuit could get sustained national attention, at least from the Latino publications. It could possibly be like "Trayvon Martin" for Latino's and reinforce the notion that Republicans are not on their side.

    •  Well, the Montana law that just got overturned (9+ / 0-)

      Had been in place since the early 1900s. The impact of it being gone will be enormous, due in no small part to it being pretty cheap to advertise there.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 08:23:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Maryland's redistricting law (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, askew, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      was upheld as well. LINK Which clears the way for other states to do the same thing.
       I hope California see fit to pass a similar bill. CA-21 has approximately 20,000 people incarcerated within its boundaries.

      ex-SSP. What would Machiavelli do?

      by hankmeister on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 08:59:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-11 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, atdnext, MichaelNY

    Kerry Bentivolio, the Paulist fringe candidate who has the benefit of being the only one on the ballot, is going on the air. Only word on the size of the buy I can find is from a tweet from a Roll Call reporter:


    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 08:18:12 AM PDT

  •  The ruling on the AZ immigration will really (7+ / 0-)

    show a lot of people's biases, for and against the law. Seeing both negative headlines, "Most of law struck down", but some conservatives saying, "Key part of law upheld."

  •  Oh! I know! (11+ / 0-)

    It's a list of rational thoughts going through Scalia's head when he wrote the dissenting opinion on SB1070.

  •  UT-02: Jay "dragonslayer" Seegmiller (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat, KingofSpades

    accepting the democratic nomination:

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 08:39:59 AM PDT

  •  IL-12: Enyart was named as nominee (7+ / 0-)

    over this past weekend.

    My diary:

    Good news for Democrats who live in the 12th district of Illinois: William Enyart has been selected unanimously by a panel of Democrats involved in picking Jerry Costello and Brad Harriman's replacement in Chester, Illinois.
    BND:
    CHESTER — A panel of Democratic leaders unanimously chose Bill Enyart of Belleville on Saturday to be the party's candidate in the 12th Congressional District race this fall.

    Enyart was one of seven candidates who interviewed before U.S. Rep. Jerry Costello, D-Belleville, and 12 other Democratic leaders at Chester City Hall.

  •  Utah polls (6+ / 0-)

    UT-Pres: Romney leads Obama 68-26, 4% vote for "other" and 2% are undecided: Link

    1,222 registered voters.

    UT-Sen: Hatch leads 60-32 over Lijenquist, and Hatch leads 63-29 over fmr. St. Sen. minority leader Scott Howell. Lijenquist, quite funnily, does 20 points worse, leading Howell "only" 48-34: Link

    SLC-Mayoral: Crockett leads Winder 48-42 in the GOP primary, both have big leads over Democrat Ben McAdams in the general: Link

    When pitted against McAdams in the Nov. 6 general election, Crockett is favored by 49 percent of respondents to McAdams' 35 percent. If Winder wins the Republican primary, 48 percent of those polled said they would likely vote for him, while 40 percent said they preferred McAdams.
    Very small sample size for the SLC poll though.

    UT-01: Bishop with big lead, leading 65-22 over small businessman Ryan Combe and 66-22 over veteran Donna McAleer: Link

    UT-04: Matheson leads Love 53-38, pollster Dan Jones expects it to tighten as Love raises her name recognition: Link

    (they also apparently polled UT-02 and UT-03, the matchups for which I desperately want to see, but there website is terribly organized and I can't find them. Please post them if you find them)

    UT-AG: Sallow leads Reyes 52-24 in the Republican primary, no GE matchup I can find: Link

    UT-St. Aud: dead heat in Republican primary, with incumbent auditor Auston Johnson leading St. Rep. John Dougall only 29-25: Link

    Again no GE matchup.

    .

    All of the above polls were done for Deseret News/KSL-TV by the pollster Dan Jones & Associates.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 09:00:00 AM PDT

    •  One has to wonder if (0+ / 0-)

      there is any way that Obama could match his performance last time. I don't know how many offices he has in the state, but as I understand it, the improvement came mostly if not entirely from the improved performance in Salt Lake County (and, I guess, Summit County). There's no point in spending a lot of money in the state now, but if ground game forces are there and aren't overwhelmed by structural forces against them, might we do better than this poll suggests?

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 09:06:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A few thoughts (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, lordpet8, itskevin, MichaelNY

      It will be a miracle if Obama can hold Romney under 70% in Utah.

      It will be interesting to see if Mia Love's fundraising improves this quarter. Pre-primary it wasnt very good. It's pretty encouraging to see Matheson over 50%.

      SLC-mayoral: incumbent here is a Dem right? If so, why is Dem doing so poorly in the general? Is current mayor not popular?

      •  They've had all Dem mayors for decades (5+ / 0-)

        I'm actually just thinking this is a weird poll with it's tiny sample size, Ben McAdams has a huge money advantage (He has over $300K in the bank vs. less than $20K for either Republican).

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 09:14:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  McAdams (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32

        Is a Salt Lake City-area State Senator, in perhaps the most liberal district in the state (it elected a gay Senator before McAdams). That might have something to do with it.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 09:15:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  UT-Sen is encouraging (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, gabjoh

      I hope we make a serious play for this seat when it comes open, Utah is just not as red as it used to be, I'm calling it now that Howell takes >35% of the vote for Senate and Cooke takes >40% in the Gov race. Utah's leftward trend has been masked by Bush's over-performance among hispanics (visa the Republican average) and relatively moderate (moderate-conservative) long time incumbents such as Orrin Hatch and Bob Bennett. The current Governor is a moderate-conservative and was preceeded by Jon Huntsman. If Ben McAdams wins (and really, SLC has had a democratic mayor for so long, and McAdams has so much more money than the other two, this poll should be discounted, and I'm still prepared to think of it as "when" he gets elected, rather than "if") he could run. Naturally if Smith or Cooke win they would be our top recruits, but ultimately I think Matheson will run, he's really young (way younger than I thought he was, for some reason I thought he was in his mid-to-late-sixties) and people forget that in no less than three consecutive polls was tied or within three points of Orrin Hatch in mid-2011. So I think he would dominate any other Republican (and Hatch has sworn to retire after this term).

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 09:12:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I feel as if making a play for a seat in Utah (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, sapelcovits, gabjoh

        requires a ton of work to be done before the election itself, by a few cycles. If I am right, I'm just not sure that the party is preparing to make such an investment.

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 09:16:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  State or national? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson, lordpet8

          The state party is in good shape. I think we'll have the groundwork for a play if we want to make it. I feel like most of the work to be done by the national party doesn't necessarily need years to prepare unless the state party is in bad shape and they essentially need to set up a shadow party -- which is why we don't often make plays in red states, even if we have a good recruit: if the state party's a no-show it takes years and huge sums of money. But that's a function of the state of the state party's in red states, not the hue of the state itself (of course there's usually a correlation) -- so that's the difference between Utah and, say, Idaho. Utah has a functional state party to do groundwork. (it's interesting to speculate why this is, ultimately I don't think it's anything interesting, it's just that we have a solid base of rich liberal donors to the party in SLC and a base of voters in the same place. We always have a certain core level of strength)

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 09:25:52 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I was assuming (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            atdnext, gabjoh

            that the state party wasn't anything special, not necessarily because of anything in particular it did wrong, because it's Utah and it's just not something Democrats think about. How is it in better shape than I thought it was?

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 09:33:26 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  In that it exists. (8+ / 0-)

              If you go to the state party in, say, Idaho (to continue with the comparison). (and the state party in Idaho isn't even as bad as some of our other state parties) The state party recruited former NFL player Jimmy Farris to be our candidate in ID-01 this year, and to them this was some great recruiting coup, so for months every time they had a fundraiser they'd trot out Jimmy Farris and they'd talk about how he would save the party and part the seas and so and so forth. And on primary night he won 53-47 against a criminal. He was almost alvin greene-ed, and it's because there is no real state party. They don't have volunteers, there's no real core solidly Democratic areas to base the party in which is part of the problem, but it has no money to run ads, no phonebanks, our party is a fairly adept and fundraisng, we're not broke and on the streets (yet) we do try, but really it exists more in theory than in reality. You'd be hard pressed to point to a substantive footprint it makes on the world.

              So if we have a fictional Rep for ID-01 called, you know, Tim Jacobson running statewide, yes, you'd be correct, it would be hell for the national party. They don't have local connections, they don't know anybody, and yet they'd have to basically do something similar to what Republicans are doing for Romney in Nevada, and you can see how well that's going for them! We were leading in every poll leading up to the ID-2006-Gov race and we lost by 9 points. We have no party.

              I'm not saying there's anything particularly special about the UT-Dem-party, but there is a UT-Dem-party. Admittedly almost all of our volunteers and donors are in SLC, and I do think there is hispanic outreach to be done, but there's something there to work with there. The national party would not be starting from ground zero, which would take years of work like you implied. On some level we can just swoop in and help out Jim Matheson, because the st. party knows what to do. We've already got strategists, and volunteers, and all the teams in place, the national party can just transfer $250K to the UT-Dem-party and let them take care of it and just run ads from afar, like they do most everywhere else, and it wouldn't necessarily take anything special. I don't think it would be as big a deal as you're implying.

              (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

              by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 10:11:28 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  love (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                hankmeister, David Nir

                This is why I love the DKE site. Lots of insightful analysis from the local people. Thank you.

              •  Thanks for this information. (0+ / 0-)

                If the party is in as relatively good shape as you say, then are they taking the next step of building up the party? It's easy enough to have the pieces to do so in place, as you imply they do, but are they trying to plan for the long term, as hard as that might be?

                I don't think I was quite implying that they were starting from zero. At least that's not the impression I meant to give. My point/question was more about the party working in areas both that are completely friendly and entirely inhospitable. It's easy enough to work in the SLC area, and in a lot of ways, the best solution, as that's within the Watasch Front, where 80 percent of the state's population lives. But are they spreading out from Salt Lake County into Utah and Davis Counties, for instance? If not, why not? And if they are but are still failing, what else might they do?

                I didn't know that re Idaho in 2006. It's really a great argument for long-term investment in states like that.

                Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                by bjssp on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:29:15 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Probably to win something. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

                  Ultimately the demographics of Utah are still very difficult, and we probably won't be able to regularly contest elections until the percentage of mormons visa the state population is below 60% (which is still a while off). We do have a down ballot presence in many of the redder counties, Weber County's Dem DA is actually our AG candidate this year. We've recruited a strong slate of candidates for 2012 that are less SLC centric than usually.

                  In the short term I'm not sure there's much we can do to significantly improve our electoral performance, and demographics make for a tough uphill climb for people not named Matheson. You might remember we had a discussion a bit before your break from DKE (which I thought was great) where we were talking about building the Democratic party in the south, and overcoming the cultural barriers and infiltrating churches and things like that; and my opinions haven't changed.

                  Becoming regularly competitive statewide in Utah short term  would involve making substantial gains in the mormon community, and I'm not sure that's feasible or even desirable, and not just because of the inherent uneasy and quixotic nature of an alliance between the LDS church and SLC secularists. I'm just not sure we have much to offer them. The Republican party already controls the state, mormons vote predominantly on social issues, are immigration hardliners, and unlike in the south there isn't even a strong (I should say recent) historical current of mormons being a democratic demographic. Just like the south, there are some communities and religious circles where we simply cannot compete. Southern Utah is largely not hooked into mainstream American culture and there's no change, certainly no short term 5-10 year change, for the huge religious and cultural divides that exist. We simply do not exist in the same culture, and have nothing to entice an alliance. And I'm not sure it's worth pandering to a declining, if still dominant, demographic (especially if it involved tacking right on immigration and alienating our one strong, growing demographic: hispanics). Utah is becoming steadily less LDS, and it might be better to bank on an emerging Democratic majority of SLC liberals and downstate hispanics.

                  So we do the same thing I advised when we were talking about in the south: we bunker down and wait.

                  (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                  by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:10:05 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  It will tough (3+ / 0-)

                    I was looking back at our last Dem Senator, Frank Moss. It was an uphill battle back then too. Moss was lucky that his first election was a perfect storm against the GOP.
                    The GOP was feuding with its moderate Republican inumbent senator Arthur V. Watkins who supported the censure against McCarthy. Conservatives challenged him with a former two-term non-mormon Governor, J. Braken Lee. Watkins survived the primary but Lee vowed to continue onto the general as an independent.

                    So Moss was helped by the R split and the very Democratic 1958 wave. Despite all this Moss garnered only with 38.7% – 34.8% – 26.4%
                    Talk about a close race
                    Moss was lucky to run in 1964 Dem wave where he won with 57%.
                    By his 3rd reelection in 1970 Moss got 56% before losing to Hatch in 1976

                    “Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”- President Eisenhower

                    by lordpet8 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:33:09 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  ^be (0+ / 0-)

                      “Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”- President Eisenhower

                      by lordpet8 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:33:55 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  I guess you could say that if we (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Zack from the SFV

                    plan to run candidates, we need a set of plans to compete for voters. Otherwise, what's the point of running?

                    I don't doubt that there are barriers, perhaps insurmountable ones, that make winning difficult, if not impossible. But what are our other options?

                    I wouldn't expect miracles, but we are at such a low point now that we only have one place to go, which is up. And really, are we going to be chased out of the state with guns if we try to pound the pavement?

                    Consider how such a small improvement would have benefited Obama the first time around. CNN seems to put Mormons in with Protestants in 2004, so we can only look at 2008, when they made up 75 percent of the electorate. Obama received only 19 percent of the Mormon vote, and while CNN doesn't list the other percentages, working backwards I figured he received 80 percent of everyone else. (That might be a little high, but let's go with it for now.) Had he received 25 percent of the Mormon vote, with all else the same, he would have received 38.72 percent overall. With 30 percent, he would have received 42.47 percent. That's nowhere close to winning, but it's a much more solid base than we would have otherwise.

                    It might be impossible to get 25 percent, let alone 30 percent, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try. A halfway decent attempt should yield some positive results.

                    Now, if we could get the Mormon's down to 70 percent of the population and win 25 percent of their votes while turning out more of other voters and winning 75 percent of their votes, we'd be at 40 percent. Roughly in the same spot as I described before, in other words.

                    I mention these numbers because we are still losing, badly, despite a nice bump in our share of the Mormon vote. They may be declining, but until they are under 40 percent of the vote, they will still be the biggest force in state politics. We can't afford to write them off.

                    You're right to suggest that an alliance between Mormons and everyone else would be uneasy, at best, but politics does indeed make for unusual partnerships. You say that we have  presence down ballot and have recruited a strong slate of candidates for 2012. That shows, I think, that we aren't toxic to everyone there, and that the party realizes it can't be completely SLC-focused if it ever wants to expand. We'll see how it goes in November.

                    Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                    by bjssp on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:50:04 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Agreed with everything except immigration (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    bumiputera

                    Mormons are in general not immigration hardliners. Instead, they recognize that many new Mormon converts are Latinos, so they are moderate on immigration. But they are still overwhelmingly Republican, for other reasons (as you said, primarily due to social conservatism).

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 10:11:24 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

      •  You make a good point (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        atdnext, MichaelNY

        about Matheson being young, relatively speaking. No Democrat is going to win statewide with a Mormon on the top of the ticket this year, so maybe within the next 5-10 years, he'll make his move, especially with an open Senate seat on the horizon in 2018.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 09:17:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Another plus to Matheson (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, bfen, gabjoh, MichaelNY

        And an upside to the GOP constantly trying to screw him over in redistricting, is that he has represented a substantially higher portion of the state than any other districted politician on any level. And provided he does so again this year, he will have consistently won big in i'd have to guess, over half of the state by now, at least once.

        Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

        by R30A on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 02:00:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Romney calls for national immigration (9+ / 0-)

    strategy, but says nothing about AZ decision.

    This is like the DREAM order all over again. Romney want a national plan, but wont say what it is. And he wont comment on the ruling so far.

    link.

  •  NY-18: More Attacks (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, MichaelNY

    http://www.nydailynews.com/...

    It is interesting to see him doing a robocall before the primary. Why doesn't he wait until the general election?

    Second Maloney sent out an attack mailer blasting Becker for donating to Sue Kelly in 2005.

    http://www.capitaltonight.com/...

    M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

    by slacks on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 09:21:38 AM PDT

    •  To answer your Q (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

      Presumably the GOP is most afraid of Maloney.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 09:29:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I never really understood this (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        Trying to pick the other sides candidate could come back to bite you. For instance Becker seems to have less baggage. Becker has also been the one most aggressively attacking Nan Hayworth. The only thing I have seen that they could use against him in the general was a comment praising the ACA because it is a good step towards single payer. Maybe they will/have uncovered something else.

        Maloney will have to deal with three lines of attacks that will be more effective with the general election's electorate than the Democratic primary's. He has the carpetbagger allegation, the troopergate coverup, and the "misuse" of campaign funds issue. They know how to define him.

        M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

        by slacks on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 10:30:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Or are there other explanations? (0+ / 0-)

        I honestly can't see why the Republicans would seriously be thinking that Maloney would be tougher to beat in the fall (given all the vulnerabilities he has that Becker (whom, full disclosure, I'm volunteering for) doesn't, the weakness of his campaign and Becker's resonance with the grass roots). Unless...

        ... they believe he will win because they've been doing some polling of their own (in which case, why attack him like this before the primary, when the general electorate isn't listening, and giving Maloney more time to develop a response).

        ... or, more likely to me, they are evaluating a Democratic nomination process by Republican standards (i.e., thinking that all the endorsements and the fundraising ability will count and voters will fall into line), which I can understand, because Maloney's done exactly what you'd have to do to win a Republican primary.

        Or, they really don't care who wins but they have another, more important agenda. This is what I think's going on.

        Notice the robocall script is long on associating Maloney with corruption and Spitzer but doesn't mention anyone else in the race. This suggests to me it's in keeping with going deep negative right before the vote not to get anyone to win but to depress turnout. People who decide to vote in that period usually decline invitations to pissing matches.

        Why would the Republicans want to depress turnout? Easy.

        I've been reminding some people I've talked to both in person and over the phone that Boehner and the NRCC will be looking closely at Democratic turnout in this primary. We know they're worried about this seat ... it added three small cities and got more Democratic, to the point that it's now got a dead-even PVI, with a first-term incumbent who's got some baggage to live down and is new to those three cities. If a lot of Dems turn out for the primary, as I've been trying to make happen, it will send a signal that this district will be extremely competitive in November. So much so that they might want to write Hayworth off and concentrate the money somewhere else.

        So ... perhaps the finest minds of the NY GOP got together and decided to do this. Tar Maloney in a robocall, recipients will then think everybody running is a scumball, and less people will vote ... so Nan will get some major national money to fight with that the state party won't have to spend.

        Yeah. That's it.

  •  UT-SD-28: this guy is hilarious. (3+ / 0-)

    Our candidate for the above mentioned district, being awesome with the Iron County Dems:

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 09:29:49 AM PDT

  •  ARG NH poll: Obama 51-43 (9+ / 0-)

    It is ARRGGG, but Ras had it at +5 so it seems consistent. Let's say mid single digit lead.

    link

  •  Unannounced Obama ad buy (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    link

    What stands out to me is running ads in PA, but not MI or WI.  Most of the PA polling has been pretty good, but a lot of the MI has been close recently.

  •  What WI poll is MSNBC referencing in their crawl? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY

    It might be bumped out of the rotation by now, but all weekend through this morning there's been an item that says Obama's lead in Wisconsin "narrows to 49-42."  The most recent WI poll I know of came out last Wednesday and was 49-43.  

  •  more gallup whiplash (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, SLDemocrat, KingTag, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    Yesterday Obama goes up 5 points today down 4. They really have some issues.

  •  Some shameless diary promotion (5+ / 0-)

    but I've completed the 2nd edition of my house of reps race ratings here:
    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Senate should be out later this week before I leave for London.  Not sure whether I have the time to do Pres and Gov.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 10:31:31 AM PDT

  •  NH-GOV: Cilley doing better than Hassan? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat, MichaelNY

    That's surprising, no?

    •  Yeah. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      I'm beginning to feel Emily's List's endorsement of Hassan was an unfair, unwarranted move against Cilley. Even though Hassan may have raised more money, Cilley's fundraising isn't bad either, and now with a poll out showing Cilley doing better against both Republicans, it seems to me that they should have just stayed neutral.

      •  We are giving credence to a (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kleinburger, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        Rasmussen poll now? Because it fits a narrative.... Either this poll is unacceptable and ever poll they do is unacceptable or they're all acceptable.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 10:48:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ras or ARG? (0+ / 0-)

          I don't know which poll is being referenced here, but upthread a new ARG poll of NH is mentioned. They do not have the bias Ras has and also do pretty well in NH where they are based.

        •  No (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, lordpet8, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          I've shown quite clearly that Rasmussen sometimes has polls right in the ballpark or even Democratic leaning. The problem is we don't ever know for certain which is which. What we do know is that about 75% of the time his polls lean at least 3 points to the right.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:39:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And sometimes way out in left field (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:33:11 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Only in NV can Ras be described as Dem-leaning (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            In CA, other pollsters were +7 and +9 more Dem than Ras around the time Ras did his poll.

            In MI, other pollsters  were +10 and +6 more Dem than Ras.

            In MT, the only other pollster is +3 more Dem than Ras.

            Ras polls are nearly worthless because they always have a Republican lean (except in NV).  Sometimes though that Republican lean is not obvious because of one or more polls that lean even more Republican.  

            Nevada makes the point pretty clearly.  In 2010 every public pollster was Republican leaning.  Whichever public pollster was least Republican-leaning was not "Dem leaning".  It was still Republican leaning, but just sucked less than the others.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:50:11 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Not exactly (0+ / 0-)

            In CA, other pollsters were +7 and +9 more Dem than Ras around the time Ras did his poll.

            In MI, other pollsters  were +10 and +6 more Dem than Ras.

            In MT, the only other pollster is +3 more Dem than Ras.

            Ras polls are nearly worthless because they always have a Republican lean (except in NV).  Sometimes though that Republican lean is not obvious because of one or more polls that lean even more Republican.  

            Nevada makes the point pretty clearly.  In 2010 every public pollster was Republican leaning.  Whichever public pollster was least Republican-leaning was not "Dem leaning".  It was still Republican leaning, but just sucked less than the others.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:51:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Clackamas County commission races (4+ / 0-)

    Photobucket

    This is the race for chair, with conservative candidate Paul Savas in pink, conservative candidate John Ludlow in red, Democrat Dave Hunt in dark blue, and moderate Charlotte Lehan in light blue.  Lehan won most of the Democratic areas outside of Hunt's district, where Hunt won most of the precincts, and he didn't win any precinct that wasn't fairly close to his district.  Savas only won a few suburban precincts, while Ludlow dominated most of the conservative areas.

    The main exception being Lehan's areas.  Sure, she won most of Lake Oswego, Milwaukie, and West Linn, with parts of Clackamas and Oregon City, but she also won Wilsonville, where both she and Ludlow were mayors once.  Wilsonville tends to lean Republican but Lehan did very well there, and dominated in Charbonneau, the part of it across the river which is essentially a retirement community.

    Here is a map of where Lehan/Hunt combined won, versus where Savas/Ludlow combined won:

    Photobucket

    This is pretty unsettling, as the conservatives had big inroads into what are usually swingy/light blue areas of Oak Grove, Clackamas, West Linn, and Oregon City.  Part of it may be because Republicans had better turnout in the primary than Democrats.  On the other hand, because of Lehan's strength, she and Hunt also got over 50% in Wilsonville.

    For comparison, this is my Obama/Kerry average for the county, with dark blue being where they averaged above 60% and dark red where it was under 40%.

    Photobucket

    And finally, here is Martha Schrader's victory in the primary, where she cleared a runoff by getting 53% of the vote.  Dark blue is +55% of the vote, light blue is 50+1-55%, pink is 45-50%, and red is under 45%.

    Photobucket

    Yes, Martha is Congressman Kurt Schrader's ex-wife.  She did very well, much more like Obama than any of the other candidates, except even Obama couldn't win a precinct in Canby (the home town of the Schraders) or Charbonneau.  She even tied in Estacada.  A Democrat who can tie in Estacada will probably win the county.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 10:43:09 AM PDT

  •  WY-Sen: Democrats have a candidate! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, lordpet8, jncca

    Albany County commissioner Tim Chesnut: Link

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 10:48:17 AM PDT

  •  PPP tweets: suggests a MA-SEN a close race (8+ / 0-)

    Two tweets, one in which they say Brown's approval rating is up 10% since March, but Warren hasnt lost any support.

    Also, they note undecideds in the Senate race favor Obama 60-13 over Romney.

    Obama is in MA today, and Warren is introducing him. So hopefully that gives her a boost.

    •  That second tweet shows the enormous hill (7+ / 0-)

      Brown has to climb.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 10:54:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Today's event suggests to me (4+ / 0-)

        Obama/OFA/WH is going to make a big push to help Warren win. I could see another event with the President, especially with NH so close by. But even if NH is off the board later in the cycle, I wouldnt be surprise to see Biden and/or Michelle Obama campaign there.

        It would be great to get Bill Clinton as well.

        •  Reading between the lines (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, LordMike, sulthernao

          Brown is probably an inch ahead or maybe even an exact tie.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:11:18 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Really? Why? I think the opposite (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            aamail6, itskevin, MichaelNY

            If there's an exact tie with all but one age group, in Massachusetts, I expect Warren to be ahead based on a big lead with under-30 voters.

            There's no way Brown is tied with young voters......at least, I can't imagine it.  PPP never shows any such thing for Repbulicans.  Yes Brown has a more moderate public image, but Massachusetts is also a far more liberal state than most.  So those things offset.

            I expect a small Warren lead.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:17:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

              I agree on that. Unless the big lead is with seniors. The wording before that tweet suggested something different however.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:18:47 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Can't be (0+ / 0-)

                If the lead was with seniors, then Warren will have had to lose a 27 point lead among younger voters in the past few months.  Impossible (or at least any poll suggesting that would be shit).

                So at worst Warren is losing the other three groups by .4% each, and winning the younger voters by a margin that is 1.6% of the total... leading to a .4% Warren lead for a stistical tie.

                Much more likely though are (in order of likelihood) 2-3-1-4 point leads for Warren.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:30:34 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  Convention keynote favorite IMO (7+ / 0-)

          Unless Carmona is a really good speaker or something.  

          •  Carmona would have to be in a better pos. to win (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            to get the keynote. I'd bet anything, dollars to donuts that it'll be Warren. The last two conventions, the keynote speaker was a Senate candidate that was just about certain to win, and also fit the campaign narrative (Obama, Warner). Although I'm of the opinion that Hillary Clinton was the real Keynote address of 2008.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 06:45:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Once again, (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          Obama's task is to get himself reelected. I highly doubt he'll be coordinating with every Senate candidate who could win.

          •  Yes, but having a Dem senate along with him... (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32, bear83, bfen, MichaelNY

            ...is an important secondary goal as well.

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:22:39 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Agree with you and LordMike (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, itskevin, bfen, MichaelNY

            His main task is to get himself re-election, and while he wont be coordinating with every Senate candidate, I think he does realize he needs a Dem senate to help him out in a second term.

            And MA is a state where Obama could definitely make a difference in the Senate race.

          •  Obama has always been selfish (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, ArkDem14

            But you're not right about Obama's task is only to get himself elected.

            Obama isn't that stupid.  Obama cares about his legacy.  If Dems lose the Senate and don't retake the house, Obama will have almost no legacy, no accomplishments besides some executive orders.  Additionally, losing the Senate would make Obama's next four years to be no fun at all.

            Strictly selfishly, Obama's campaign will work to benefit Senate candidates.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:39:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  They'll "coordinate" only if it's free (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, ArkDem14, GradyDem, MichaelNY

              Obama won't spend a dime in states for downballot candidates.

              I can tell you my first day of canvassing a couple Saturdays ago was Obama-only, not for Tim Kaine or the VA-10 Democratic nominee.  In 2008, the walk lists often were coordinated for all 3 races.  At least for now, OFA is doing its own thing in Virginia.

              And on TV, Obama won't run ads to help downballot.

              OFA will help downballot only to the extent there's no more than de minimus direct or opportunity cost.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:19:42 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I didn''t say coordinate (3+ / 0-)

                but it is 100% sure thing Obama will spend in a way that benefits the Senate candidates.  He'd be a fool not to.  He'll do what benefits him, and having a Dem Senate majority benefits him.  

                And as we can see, he already is working Indiana, which is by no means a critical state to him, but is a deadlocked senate race.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:34:29 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  Wouldn't Bill Clinton be a big help? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY

          We're constantly told Warren will have trouble connecting with the white blue collar voters of the state. Wouldn't he help there?

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:33:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Not necessarily... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Obviously, Brown will way overperform Romney in any event, so you would expect that not very many people who know they are voting for Romney will not be sure about Brown. I would have thought that, by nature, most of the undecideds in MA would be voting for Obama, but that doesn't necessarily mean they won't vote for Brown. They are undecided.

        •  Some of them will vote for Brown (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tommypaine, MichaelNY

          And some won't vote. But it isn't like she has to win them 60-13.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:34:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  He'll have to over perform by a lot (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          An over performance of at least 10 will be necessary. In the end, I think his over performance of Romney will be something like 4-5%, not very much at all. It's not often that a state votes for one party for President and the other for Senate, except in landslides and other circumstances.

          26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

          by DrPhillips on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:46:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Turn this around (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, sacman701, MichaelNY

            Say the poll was Tester 46, Rehberg 46. Undecideds favor Romney by nearly 50 points.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:48:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'll probably delude myself (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              into thinking we had a decent shot, but objectively speaking, that would be a very tough hill to climb.

            •  That would be a problem (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Even in a close race, undecideds weighted that heavily toward the opposition presidential candidate makes it difficult for a Senate candidate.

              26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

              by DrPhillips on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:15:19 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Two kinds of undecided voters? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              1.) Voters who do not know the candidates and are soft partisans, so will likely come around to their respective parties in the end. For these voters, who they are picking on the presidential level is probably a good gauge of how they will eventually fall in the downballot race. I think WA-Gov is a good example of a race with a lot of these kinds of undecided voters, who I believe are probably Dem-leaning and will come around to Inslee in the end.

              2.) Voters who do know both candidates and are more truly undecided. In this case, I'm not sure that how they vote on the presidential level is as good a gauge of how they will vote on the downballot race. Not that I think otherwise, I'm just less sure. I do think MA-Sen would fit this category, though, as the race has gotten a lot of coverage. Brown and Warren probably both have near-universal name rec at this point.

              Random theories. Any thoughts?

    •  He says they are dead even in 3 of 4 age groups (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      The March poll had them both in the forties except for 18 to 29 where Warren lead 56-29.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:09:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah virtually certain Warren lead (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sulthernao, MichaelNY

        PPP normally underestimates younger voters, but with younger voters at even just 10%, and Warren a bit less than 2-1 with younger voters, Warren should have a 2-3 point lead or so.

        If so, then with those undecided numbers we are solidly in Tilt D territory.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:43:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It has been for quite some time (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I believe there are 6 counties already in CA where Declined to state registration has outpaced Republicans making them nothing more than a 3rd party.

      “Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”- President Eisenhower

      by lordpet8 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:48:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And they will say good riddance to (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bumiputera, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      Macpherson.  They aren't just dying, they are very dumb about their own death.

      Here is a dude who actually gets elected in a very Democratic area, but the CA won't look upon him as a role model.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:51:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  the odd thing (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tommypaine, MichaelNY

        was I thought he would still win his race even if he stayed a Republican. I guess he doesn't want take any chances of the R label pulling him down.

        “Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”- President Eisenhower

        by lordpet8 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:08:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree, I'd assume he'd win, but... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          any Republican who didn't get 50% in the primary should be toast against a Dem in the general, if the Dem isn't a total tool.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:37:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The interesting thing is that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          from what I've read, the "non-partisan" county board races are where the G.O.P.'s been doing best.  They have, for example, all 5 seats on the San Diego County Board, including a really Democratic one in urban San Deigo.  I'd like to know more about what's likely to happen with those kinds of races in November.  

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:29:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  For another example (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          hankmeister, MichaelNY

          here:

          As the lone Democrat on the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors for several years, Josie Gonzales has often endorsed and contributed funds to her Republican colleagues, a stance that has irritated some of her party cohorts.

          On Thursday, the ill will was out in the open: the San Bernardino County Democratic Central Committee voted on a resolution calling on Democrats to actively not support Gonzales in her bid for re-election as Fifth District supervisor in the June 5 election. Critics cited her backing of former Supervisors Bill Postmus and Paul Biane — both later arrested as part of the county corruption scandal — and said she had failed to help other Democrats.

          Despite this, Gonzales was re-elected, with the other races--seats 1 and 5--looking to head to runoffs.

          I think I read somewhere that the G.O.P. has majorities on a majority of CA County Boards, but that doesn't necessarily mean they cover a large population.  Still, they apparently have had San Bernadino (unless the other members were really non-partisan) and San Diego, and I'm sure they have Orange.  

          As for Riverside, Bob Buster is a Dem.  John Tavaglione, Jeff Stone, John J. Benoit, and Marion Ashley are Republicans.  That means the Republicans seem to have majorities on 4 of the 5 largest counties' boards, covering a fourth of the state.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:45:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  He's also full of shit (5+ / 0-)
      "But I'm not going to do Republican bashing because the left wing of the Democratic Party is guilty of the same thing. It's 'my way or the byway.' Republicans want to shut down things and Democrats want to pay for everything.

      "There's no middle."

      Democrats have been making substantial fucking cuts to the budgets for years; it's Republicans who refused to raise taxes and repeal Prop 13.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:41:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  also I don't see that as an attack (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera
        Democrats want to pay for everything.
        If we paid for everything we wouldn't have a rising debt, increasing college tution, decreased funding for medical care, etc.

        “Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”- President Eisenhower

        by lordpet8 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 02:17:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's only a matter of time.... (0+ / 0-)

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 03:26:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Current Rasmussen bias (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, itskevin, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    Compared to the Pollster estimate, in terms of the presidential race in each state. Note, I'm not including NM because Rasmussen didn't poll Gary Johnson and the estimate includes him.

    AZ - R+6

    CA - D+6

    CO - R+7

    FL - R+1

    IA - R+3

    MA - R+3

    MI - D+5

    MO - R+3

    MT - 0

    NV - D+3

    NH - R+2

    NC - R+7

    OH - R+1

    PA - R+2

    VA - R+3

    WI - R+5

    3 states favorable to Obama, 1 state on the mark, 12 states with a Republican lean. This is a very similar pattern to what we saw in 2010.

    I make that an average bias toward Romney of 2 points overall but more than 3 points in the 75% of polls with a Republican lean.

    So, before I look at Senate polls, the Rasmussen bias so far is as follows...

    National tracker - R+5
    Generic ballot - R+7
    State - R+2

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:01:56 AM PDT

    •  er (0+ / 0-)
      I make that an average bias toward Romney of 2 points overall but more than 3 points in the 75% of polls with a Republican lean.
      Well what's the relevance of that? That's like saying the Dodgers are outscoring their opponents by 0.5 runs per game, but in the 30 games they've lost they've been outscored by 2.8 runs per game. The latter factoid means nothing.
      •  I found it interesting (0+ / 0-)

        Hence I posted both numbers. But if you don't find it interesting that 75% of his polls lean in the same direction that is your right.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:32:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  er (0+ / 0-)

          I do find it interesting that his polls have an average lean of 2%. I don't find the average lean of the subset of his polls which are consistent with that lean to be enlightening in any way.

          •  Fair enough (0+ / 0-)

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:46:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  You should, if you look deeper (0+ / 0-)

            For example, the "Ras lean" in Michigan doesn't present itself because of a flurry of non-major pollsters finding an entirely different race than PPP/Marist/SurveyUSA and also then Rasmussen does.

            Rasmussen has a large "Ras lean" in MI too if you only look at the numbers from the mainstream pollsters who poll other states.

            Additionally, in Nevada there is no "Ras lean", but the other pollsters there have a track record of polling Nevada very poorly.

            Only in CA does Ras seem to be in line with reliable-ish mainstream pollsters.  (Only because of extreme outlier from PPIC does it appear Ras has a Dem lean according to the average.  Also, compare Ras to the four polls taken within two months of the Ras poll (which eliminates PPIC, and the consensus without Ras is +25, while Ras is +22).

            In other words, give or take the Nevada consideration, Rasmussen's Republican lean exists even in two of the three states where he seems to show no Republican lean.

            So, just like you have to throw out the Russian judge's diving score, in some cases the Ras lean is there, but it doesn't seem to because of other factors -- including unreliable pollsters, relative staleness of a Ras poll, poor track records of other pollsters in a particular state, etc.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:09:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Also the Montana +0 is deceptive (0+ / 0-)

              As only PPP and Ras have polled Montana.

              PPP = +5 Romney
              Ras' two polls around the PPP poll are +7 and +9, which makes for a +8.

              So while it isn't right to label this state with a "consensus" label, in Montana Ras has a +3 lean to the GOP compared to the other pollster.

              So that leaves only Nevada where Ras does not show a Republican lean compared to the consensus of mainstream/national pollsters for every state.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:15:50 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  And I breathe a sigh of relief... (6+ / 0-)

    With all independents, green party candidates, and other third party candidates filed in Arkansas, we walked away pretty good in the State Senate. In fact, all of the ridiculous challenges are in the AA Districts where Democrats are almost assured to win this November! And Democrats can rejoice that a Libertarian and a Republican are challenging Incumbent Democrat Mike Fletcher (who is in a vulnerable district).

    •  A quick look at the House suggests there's only (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      one district where we have a problem - a somewhat Democratic candidate turned Independent is running for a seat based in Paragould.

      But still, we came out much luckier than the past few election cycles.

      •  Also, LJ Bryant just bragged on FB (0+ / 0-)

        that he way outraised his GOP opponent for the State House race.

        "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 03:23:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  So do you think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that we would have a good shot holding onto the legislature this fall?

      “Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”- President Eisenhower

      by lordpet8 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 11:57:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  hmm (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I highly doubt that the Dems can hold the Arkansas legislature this November, especially with Obama on top of the ticket.
        They've held it since at least the 1870s so it will represent the final passing of an era.

        •  Obama being on the ticket has nothing to (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

          do with whether we hold the State Legislature. What does matter is the fact that we don't have a good candidate on the congressional ballot in the 2nd or 4th. For the last ten years, our congressional candidates have acted as the people who differentiate between the liberal national party and the local issues focused state party. Gene Jeffress will be able to bring along the Democrats in his home base, but not anywhere else. Herb Rule may become the first Democrat to lose the city of Little Rock in forever (history?). Without good congressional candidates, the state legislative candidates are required to make the difference, and that's a lot harder. Obama being on the ballot is not the problem - it is the fact that the national party is perceived as being very liberal.

          •  Difference? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            hifly15
            Obama being on the ballot is not the problem - it is the fact that the national party is perceived as being very liberal.
            Isn't that another way of saying the same thing? Basically, you're saying that it wouldn't matter if it were Obama, Kerry, or Gore, but that doesn't make the fact that it's Obama, and he's perceived as "very liberal," less of a problem for Arkansas Democrats.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 10:37:21 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  We have a chance, and I'd say its likely we hold (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        at least one body. I know where we were at the same point in 2010 and 2011 in Alabama and Mississippi, and we are doing much much better right now in Arkansas. Remember, Alabama and Mississippi didn't have a Democratic Governor who was providing infrastructure for good campaigning.

  •  State Legislatures in the South (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    What are your views of the chances the GOP has in the remaining democratic southern legislatures, namely the Kentucky House, the Arkansas senate and house, and the West Virginia senate and house?

    I think that the Republicans have a very good shot at gaining the Arkansas legislature for the first time since Reconstruction.

    But regarding WV and KY, what are your views? It's pretty obvious that the Dems will hold WV but how far can the GOP advance there?
    And do the Dems have any

    real
    chances in gaining any southern state legislatures back?
    •  I can answer 2 of your questions (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, Mark27, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      Kentucky state House
      The Dems were able to draw their own maps and should be favored to hold the chamber. Democrats are still quite a force to be reckoned at the state level here.

      West Virginia
      The state GOP is very weak here. Despite WV shiftly sharply to the GOP at the National level, Republicans have barely managed to crack in at the state level. While 2010 was a big R wave year the most they could do was narrowly win a house seat and 6 state house seats. Somehow the GOP managed to lose 2 state senate seats giving Dem's 82% control of the body
      Dems should be able to stay at or near supermajorities in the legislature

      “Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”- President Eisenhower

      by lordpet8 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:17:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not accurate on KY House map (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The State Supreme Court threw out the adopted maps for the House and Senate. The 2012 elections will be held under the maps adopted in 2002.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 04:24:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  ah my mistake (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          though were those maps for the state house drawn by the Dems since they still held that chamber during the last time around?

          “Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”- President Eisenhower

          by lordpet8 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 04:32:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The Dems drew them in 2002 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, MichaelNY

            when they had a 66-34 majority. If they hold on to the House, they will have more flexibility to draw maps if a new constitutional amendment to allow more county splitting passes.

            "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

            by SouthernINDem on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 05:00:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Diary (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Seems like a very interesting diary:
      1) analyzing why we still hold those particular legislatures
      2)what can we learn from them to make inroads in other legislatures  the South. If we're going to win there on a federal level we need to build a bench ...
      Any takers? ;-)

      •  All the democrats need to do (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        is be conservative in the South, distance themselves from Obama, and work from there.

        •  It is somewhat self-defeating to (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          spend too much time criticizing your own party and damaging it's label.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:44:42 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  ... (0+ / 0-)

            Are you replying to me?

            •  I wasn't speaking to the garden gnome (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, lordpet8

              standing beside you.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 02:20:10 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Then you must be deluded. because (0+ / 0-)

                Obama IS precisely the problem facing Democrats in Arkansas. His prominence and the increasingly liberal tone of the party which the GOP never fails to highlight is damaging their image in the South, and certainly will not help this November. It is driving the traditional conservative democrats away from the party, and I expect the GOP to gain both the Arkansas State House and State Senate for the first time in 140 years because of it.

                The Democrats are safe in West Virginia, for now.

                •  But if that is true (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  sapelcovits, MichaelNY

                  and Obama is the reason why the Dems are getting crushed in the state, then why did the Democrats hold their ground in 2008?
                  Obama lost the state by double digits and yet the Democrats had super majorities in both houses of the legislature.
                  People were even saying that the Dems would lose the legislature during the 2010 election and while  they managed to lose their supermajorities they still held onto both chambers.

                  I'm with Gradydem on this one. The bigger issue is the fact that were not running candidates from congress who will activate the Dem base.
                  It will be a fight to hold on the legislature in Arkansas but we can't completely count the the dems out yet. We still have a stronger party infastructure then we had in MS and AL

                  “Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”- President Eisenhower

                  by lordpet8 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 05:06:03 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Oh dear... (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Did you really just say "[if] Obama is the reason why the Dems are getting crushed in the state, then why did the Democrats hold their ground in 2008?
                     Obama lost the state by double digits and yet the Democrats had super majorities in both houses of the legislature.
                     People were even saying that the Dems would lose the legislature during the 2010 election and while  they managed to lose their supermajorities they still held onto both chambers."

                    You obviously don't know that the Republicans haven't been standing in half the seats in the past elections! In 2010, they only stood in half the seats up for election, and they won virtually all the one's they stood in.

                    The republicans have learned from their past mistakes, and now I believe they have filed a much greater list of candidates, enough to gain the legislature.  

                    You can activate the democratic base all you want, but a progressive candidate cannot win in Arkansas against a Republican. The democrats were lucky that there was no Republican opponent in 3 of the 4 congressonal districts in 2008, giving them a free ride.
                    Similarly Senator Pryor had no republican opponent for his race in 2008.

                    So one of the reasons the democrats have been doing strangely well in the past few years in Arkansas is simply because the GOP have not challenged them.

                •  No, both times you have missed (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, bumiputera

                  the point of what I've actually said. In any case, the traditional conservative Democrats have been gone since before 2000, by and large. The bulk were leaving even during the Clinton years, except in Arkansas of course. But again, my point wasn't really based on that, (though I will note that such voters are not the future of the Democratic party and if we have to lose them in order to secure our future coalition of highly educated voters, urban voters, minorities, and moderate suburbanites, so be it).

                  As a southerner myself, I was harkening back to early observation I made that the entire Blue Dog experiment seems to have hastened the demise of the Democratic brand in the south; the nature of how they campaigned and basically, in most instances, threw the national party, its goals, and its politicians, under the bus in order to promote themselves. But most people don't vote only for an individual, and certainly not all the time. It seems to me that the Blue Dogs inversely hurt themselves by contributing and certainly doing little to combat the negative perception of the Democratic brand, and in the short-term they were due to feel the kick back from that.

                  As for Obama, it's more his race which feels to be wrong for most southern white voters, his race and background which the GOP have disgracefully manipulated through underhanded and underground means to promote a racist image of otherness about him. The increasingly liberal tone of the party can't be helped, though I'd argue the Democratic party has remained where it's been since 2000, with the exception of shift on the issue of gay marriage and a moderate return to focusing more on traditional Democratic messages with regards to the economy, and responsible regulation. What has really happened is how much more conservative and ideological the Republican party has become, and that inversely makes the Democrats seem far more partisan than their policy positions, in truth, are.

                  But if you want to discuss southern Democrats and blue dogs, go ahead. I'm well-verse in this area. I grew up in the Cajun country of Chris John and John Breaux and Edwin Edwards, now represented by the truly buffoonish Charles Boustany, (like many doctors, a fantastic surgeon but dumb as a stump when it comes to everything else), spent some time in northwest Arkansas, or Paul Hammerschmidt country, high school in Rodney Alexander's district, and attend college in North Mississippi. I can talk about this issue if you need me to clarify to you what I mean.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 06:13:04 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Increasingly liberal tone? (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Flying Goat

                  You mean actually starting to move towards the Party platform?  Ohz noes!  I won't south bash, but the south has been a Republican stronghold for quite a while, so I'm not terribly surprised that Dems acting like Dems loses them votes in the south.

        •  It's culture (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, MichaelNY

          more than ideology.

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:46:38 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  MI-13: State Rep. Shanelle Jackson's back (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    on the Congressional ballot.

    The Wayne County Clerk's Office initially said Jackson fell 10 signatures short of the 1,000 signature threshold to be on the ballot.

    But the clerk's office "re-reviewed the petitions filed by Jackson and has now determined she filed enough valid signatures," said Fred Woodhams, spokesman for the Michigan Secretary of State's Office. The Secretary of State ruled Friday that Jackson will be on the ballot, Woodhams said.

    http://www.detroitnews.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:17:53 PM PDT

  •  This is just priceless (3+ / 0-)

    http://www.politico.com/...

    Straight from the Jesse Kelly/Mike Coffman/Bill Shorten school of ducking the question.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:43:45 PM PDT

  •  AZ-09: The United Steel Workers (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, KingofSpades, gabjoh, MichaelNY

    have endorsed Sinema.

    http://kyrstensinema.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:05:26 PM PDT

  •  MI-01 poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, KingofSpades, slacks

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:07:13 PM PDT

  •  HI-02: Gabbard spoke to a group of (11+ / 0-)

    LGBT Hawaiians. She made a point of apologizing for her past comments at the beginning. Calling them "hurtful".

    http://olelo.granicus.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:14:32 PM PDT

  •  NYC Pride: Political Notes (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, R30A, bfen, gabjoh, MichaelNY

    Went with my dude to the NYC Pride Parade (the very tail end) yesterday.  Which is partly why, uh, I'm only posting now, at 4 in the afternoon.

    Anyway.  A few random observations.

    1. Lots and lots of "LGBT for Obama" buttons.

    2. A few "LGBT labor" buttons, or something like that.

    3. I saw a contingent with "Obama for O'Donnell" shirts, with a single big "O" starting both words.  Presumably, Daniel O'Donnell, although the phrasing is confusing.  

    4. I saw a "Thank You Governor Cuomo" sign on the ground.  

    5. Later, I saw a "Brad Hoylman for State Senate" sign on the ground.  The rather charming reverse side had a picture of Tom Duane, with "Thank You Tom!!".  If we had a camera handy, this comment might have included a picture of Shirtless Xenocrypt with the Tom Duane side.

    (What?  It was hot out yesterday.)

    By the way, Duane officially endorsed Hoylman the other day.  I may have also seen a large Brad Hoylman sign at The Ritz the night before last.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:14:33 PM PDT

  •  PPP tease for Ohio (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Obama doing worse with whites to the tune of 8 points compared to their last poll. I take it he means net. If this is the case then it moves things to a margin more similar to the 46-52 loss to McCain with those votes rather than the 47-46 lead in early May. If he means just 39% of the vote that is more of a concern.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 01:20:28 PM PDT

  •  MN-Gay Marriage (8+ / 0-)

    As this article says, Gov. Dayton and his family are "putting their money where their mouth is":

    The governor will be hosting the First Ever MN Governor’s Pride Reception, a fundraiser for the vote no effort on June 19. Meanwhile, his sons have offered to match all donations (up to $200,000) made to Minnesotans United for All Families the group fighting the ballot measure, through June 12.

    ‘It’s simple: Committed, same-sex couples should have the freedom to marry.’ they wrote in an email. ‘Together, we can contribute $400,000 toward Minnesotans United’s efforts to protect that freedom.’

    Eric Dayton and Andrew Dayton own the Bachelor Farmer restaurant in downtown Minnesota. The eatery got national attention last week when President Barack Obama had a meal there during his trip to the state.

    (I assume they mean "downtown Minneapolis".)  Don't know if we've noticed this before, but I thought it was cool.  Dayton, apparently, said he was "disgusted" by MN's DOMA all the way back in 1998, when he was running for Governor.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 02:00:04 PM PDT

  •  Sigh, PPP says OR is a single digit race (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, supercereal

    Says Obama is down 22 points with independents. He won them by 23 points in 2008. What is going on in OR?

  •  Another PPP tweet (0+ / 0-)

    Obama doing 4, 4, and 7 pts worse than our previous polls in the 3 states we polled this weekend...annual summer swoon under way?

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 02:14:29 PM PDT

  •  TN-09: Cohen refuses to respond to a (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    debate request from Tomeka Hart. He says he is focused on the general election.

    http://www.memphisdailynews.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 02:21:20 PM PDT

  •  PA House Majority Leader Mike Turzai (11+ / 0-)

    "Voter ID, which is gonna allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania, done."

    http://www.politicspa.com/...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 02:32:55 PM PDT

  •  Why is it every poll that is negative to Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TNIndependent

    is discredited and/or picked apart?  Maybe the re-election isn't the slam dunk folks here often claim it will be.  

    OFA is running a lot of ads pro-Obama and anti-Romney and is still losing ground - that has to be concerning.  

  •  Speaking of polling, we should get a lot (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    of it this week.

    Apparently a national WSJ/NBC will be out, and NBC/Marist polls from OH, MI, and NH.

    We are also overdue for national polls from ABC/WaPo and CBS/NYTimes, although hopefully the later drops that panel back survey technique. Might see a CNN poll too.

  •  MI 1: Dem poll has McDowell down by 2 (4+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 04:02:55 PM PDT

  •  NY-06: Cuomo backs Meng (7+ / 0-)

    https://twitter.com/...

    Better late than never for her I guess.  It's probably a sign Cuomo's confident about her chances.

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 04:08:35 PM PDT

  •  . (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, jj32, MichaelNY

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 04:09:57 PM PDT

  •  2015 Canadian Federal Election (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, DCCyclone, MichaelNY, bumiputera

    Since polls for the past couple of months show the Tories trailing the NDP, they've decided to begin airing attack ads in England and French against the NDP.

    No idea on the size of the ad buy, but seeing how in the French ad shows Harper speaking in front of a Quebec flag probably means the Tories are on the air somewhere in the province. (Quebec City and maybe the regions would be my best bet.)

    Republicans and the Tea Party: Wrong for America.

    by ehstronghold on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 04:16:46 PM PDT

  •  Following the NYC Pride Politics angle (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, bfen, MichaelNY

    Pictures I found of politicians who showed up.  

    Here's Christine Quinn, Mike Bloomberg, and Kirsten Gillibrand marching together, for some reason.  That's another shot of the group.

    Carolyn Maloney, who apparently avoids sunlight as ardently as her possible constituent Elaine Benes, ran into Senator Duane.

    Duane marched with his partner, as well as with his endorsed replacement, Brad Hoylman.  They also went together to Harlem Pride a few days before (I like that picture).

    Here's Gov. Cuomo and his family.

    Broadening my scope a bit, here's JKIII, Elizabeth Warren, and Barney Frank at Boston Pride.  "(Photo courtesy of the Joe Kennedy 2012 Facebook page.)"

    And here's "Senator Al Franken with Minneapolis police at the Twin Cities LGBT Pride Parade, 2012".

    Here's "[Colorado] Senators Pat Steadman & Lucia Guzman", as photographed by fellow LGBT CO legislator Mark Ferrandino.

    Alright, this was mostly an excuse to include the picture of Maloney and Duane, but I also get a kick out of this kind of thing.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 04:41:14 PM PDT

    •  More... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bfen, MichaelNY

      Maria Cantwell at SeattlePride, with the "MomsRising Executive Director/CEO".

      Here's Schumer.

      Blumenauer and Bonamici were at Portland's parade.  Blumenauer earns some points by wearing the most "Pride Parade"-y outfit so far.  

      Up in Rhode Island, Langevin marched as well, via what I have to say looks like a pretty boss wheelchair.

      Annise Parker and Rep. Al Green showed up in Houston.  (Green is the second-most-appropriately-dressed politician so far.)

      Not a politician, but via, apparently our own anastasia p, here is a funny picture of the "Log Cabin Republicans of Greater Cleveland" stand.

      Duane and Hoylman eventually joined State Senator Deborah Glick.

      Finally, here's Mike Quigley.

      Unfortunately, I can't find any of Pelosi or of Mark Leno.  Leno apparently wore his leather pants, making him the de facto winner of the "most appropriately dressed politician" contest.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 05:02:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Perhaps DK wants the guy in the blue border ad (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, bumiputera, SLDemocrat

    to primary John Barrow in GA-12.

    I would cue a laugh track, but all I feel from seeing the guy in the blue border is sadness.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 10:10:28 PM PDT

  •  Email campaigning works. (0+ / 0-)

    We used to provide specialty SMTP solutions for an election campaign. We were able to solve email problems by working with the interns. We used email to directly contact constituents and promote events for every town that the candidate visits.

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