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8:50 AM PT: Massachusetts: Our own Benawu managed to dig up those missing candidate filing lists from the Bay State. There's one page for Democrats and one for Republicans.

9:16 AM PT: AZ-08: Martha McSally was never going to be cheering loudest for Jesse Kelly, her fellow Republican, to win the special election against Ron Barber; after all, a Kelly victory would all but end her chances of running again in November. Now with Kelly out of the picture (he dropped out of the regular election after losing last week), McSally is the probable GOP nominee. But did she go so far as to try and help this situation come about? Barber's camp is claiming that she did—that an aide of hers, Sam Stone, tried to offer unsolictied advice to a Barber staffer about how to beat Kelly. Stone denied doing so, byt Barber's campaign showed Politico a business card Stone allegedly handed one of their folks, with some tips (supposedly based on polling data) scrawled on the back. Just a very strange story... and if Stone really did do this, what a ham-handed way to go about things.

9:25 AM PT: CT-Sen: In a way, this is kind of amazing, but in a way, it's also not surprising in the least. After a debate late last week, ex-Rep. Chris Shays admitted that, at least as of right now, his campaign doesn't have money to air TV ads ahead of the Republican primary, which is just two months away. With rival Linda McMahon carpet-bombing the airwaves thanks to her bottomless personal wealth, I can see how Shays just doesn't have the resources needed to break through. But the remarkable part is that Shays said this out loud, because it's the kind of revelation that will make his remaining supporters very nervous, particularly given his deep hole in public polling.

Not long ago, I'd have called this good news for Democrats, since Shays had always appeared to be far more electable than McMahon. But McMahon's recent television efforts have paid off and put her in a better position not only in the primary but also in the general. And now it seems that Shays doesn't even have enough dough to lay some negative attacks on McMahon to soften her up for November, so I'm going to call this an unfortunate turn of events—and a lesson in "when you should shut up on the campaign trail."

10:14 AM PT: ME-Sen: The first post-primary poll of the Maine Senate race predictably shows independent ex-Gov. Angus King crushing the field, with a 27-point lead over his nearest rival, Republican SoS Charlie Summers. Click through for all the numbers and our analysis at Daily Kos Elections.

11:46 AM PT: IN-Sen: Oh boy. Mega-problem time for Republican Senate nominee Richard Mourdock:

Of particular interest to the candidate is a mandate that requires an employer to pay for certain services they may be morally opposed to — such as birth control — which Mourdock said he opposes.

But is that fair to the consumer, who may want their birth control covered?

Mourdock's example was an employer who decided to cover everything but cancer.

"Does that employer have the right to do it? I would say yes they do if they want to keep their health care costs down but it also means it's less likely you're going to want to work here. If that employer wants to get the best employees coming in the door he's going to offer the best insurance possible."

Yep, you read that right. He thinks employers should be able to deny healthcare coverage for cancer treatment. And his campaign obviously doesn't know how to deal with this serious screwup. In fact, they just ensured it wouldn't end quickly:
Mourdock's campaign did not respond to a request to elaborate on his position.

1:15 PM PT: NH-Gov: Democrat Jackie Cilley just earned the endorsement of New Hampshire's State Employees Association, an SEIU affiliate that is the state's largest union, representing 12,000 government employees. The SEA's president specifically cited Cilley's stance against the corrosive, anti-tax "pledge" most state politicians swear fealty to as a key reason for supporting her.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Republican front-runner Ovide Lamontagne teased his fundraising numbers, even though initial reports are not due until (remarkably) Aug. 22nd. Lamontagne says he's raised $910K from over 1,500 donors. He also says he as "well over a half-million dollars" in cash-on-hand.

1:39 PM PT: Now Mourdock is digging deeper. Careful, though, and watch what he's trying to do:

"Simply put, Richard was making the point that a company that discontinued insurance coverage of life-threatening ailments would immediately become an unattractive place to work," Conner told TPM. "In no way, shape or form does Richard support companies discontinuing such insurance coverage, and any attempt to say otherwise is a complete falsehood."
The question isn't whether Mourdock would support a company which blocked its employees from receiving insurance coverage for cancer treatment. The issue is whether he supports their right to do so—and he most certainly still does. He's also damn right that any company which did so would "become an unattractive place to work"—but guess what? Countless Americans hold down jobs at awful companies because they have no other choice. So while Mourdock fantasizes, Mitt Romney-style, that such awful companies would quickly drive their employees elsewhere, reality dictates that if employers start treating their workers like shit, workers pretty much just have to take it.

2:00 PM PT: HI-02: This is pretty interesting. Honolulu Civil Beat conducted not one but two polls of the Democratic primary in the open 2nd District congressional race, and why? Because the first set of numbers they got were so surprising they had a hard time believing them, so they decided to go into the field a second time. But the results checked out, because the second poll came back with very similar data.

So, what did they learn? In the first survey, conducted June 5 to 7, Civil Beat's pollster, Merriman River, found Honolulu City Council member Tulsi Gabbard improbably beating former Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann by a 35-31 margin, with attorney Bob Marx at 11 and former state government official Esther Kiaaina at 10. If you've been following the polling in this race, you know why these numbers were so startling, but Civil Beat helpfully summarizes:

When he first announced his candidacy last August, Hannemann touted a 66-to-11 edge over Gabbard. In early February, he released new internal polling numbers showing a 57 percent to 15 percent lead. Both of his surveys were conducted by QMark Research.

More importantly, an independent poll conducted by Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now in late January and early February found Hannemann with 65 percent support versus 20 percent for Gabbard.

The second survey was in the field on June 13 and 14, and it tested a much larger sample (685 likely primary voters vs. 340 the first time). This time, Hannemann was at 34 and Gabbard at 33 (with Marx and Kiaaina both at 10)—very similar to the initial batch of results, and importantly, once again showing the race a tossup. It certainly looked like Hannemann was going to cruise here, but that's apparently no longer the case.

Civil Beat's writeup goes deep into a variety of topical questions and geographic crosstabs trying to explain what's changed, but they leave out what might be the biggest factor: The veterans organization VoteVets has spent $120K on an ad touting Gabbard, a positive spot aimed at boosting her name recognition. Hannemann's been on the air, too, thought it's not clear how much he's spent. However, name rec was never his problem; as mayor, he represented more people than actually even live in this congressional district. Anyhow, I'll be curious to see if he responds with an internal of his own—or whether, in fact, we really have a race on our hands here.

2:19 PM PT: MT-Sen: Ah, nothing like some good black helicopter fantasies out in Big Sky country.

It was a blood-boiler of a story, a menacing tale of government gone too far: The Environmental Protection Agency was spying on Midwestern farmers with the same aerial "drones" used to kill terrorists overseas.

This month, the idea has been repeated in TV segments, on multiple blogs and by at least four congressmen. The only trouble is, it isn't true.

It was never true. The EPA isn't using drone aircraft — in the Midwest or anywhere else.

And GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg got caught repeating this latest lunatic bullshit:
"The Obama Administration has, once again, stepped way over the line," Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) said in a news release. He was sending a letter to the EPA, responding to "reports" about drone use. "First they wanted to expand their authority to regulate water, and now they want to use air drones to spy on American citizens."

2:23 PM PT: WI-Sen: It seems like today we're just chock-a-block with stories about Republican Senate candidates saying stupid things. Here's Wisconsin's Eric Hovde:

"I see a reporter here. I just pray that you start writing about these issues. I just pray. Stop always writing about, 'Oh, the person couldn't get, you know, their food stamps or this or that.' You know, I saw something the other day—it's like, another sob story, and I'm like, 'But what about what's happening to the country and the country as a whole?' That's going to devastate everybody."

2:55 PM PT: MN-08: Former state Sen. Tarryl Clark is out with her first TV ad of the race, two months ahead of the Democratic primary. (She'd previously been up on radio.) Clark attacks "giving tax breaks to companies who move Minnesota jobs overseas" and says she wants to protect Medicare and Social Security. When asked directly, Clark's campaign refused to detail the size of the buy.

3:12 PM PT: ND-Sen: In a new ad where she talks directly to camera the entire time, Democrat Heidi Heitkamp tries to turn attacks on her support for the Affordable Care Act into a positive—and I think she does a good job of it. She references her fight with breast cancer 12 years ago (which in fact derailed her promising bid for governor) and says "there's good and bad in the healthcare law, and it needs to be fixed." But she then pivots and attacks GOP Rep. Rick Berg, who "voted to go back, to letting insurance companies deny coverage to kids, or for pre-existing conditions." Concludes Heitkamp: "I don't ever want to go back to those days."

3:32 PM PT: SC-07: While the Democratic runoff remains in limbo, round two of the GOP contest to pick a nominee is very much underway. André Bauer's newest ad attacks rival Tom Rice as a "moderate" who failed to support Sen. Jim DeMint (a conservative beacon) and backs a gas tax hike. (There appear to be two somewhat different versions at the link.) Meanwhile, some of the also-rans have issued endorsements: Both fourth-place finisher Chad Prosser and sixth-place finisher Randal Wallace have gotten behind Rice. But the guy who landed in third, Jay Jordan, apparently hasn't made up his mind yet.

3:41 PM PT: ND-AL: Democrat Pam Gulleson has a largely positive (and pretty bland) radio spot out, about her life on the farm, where "everybody pitches in to get it all done," unlike in Washington.

4:03 PM PT (James L): VA-Sen: The political mixicologists at Majority PAC are out with a new TV spot in Virginia that's one part negative to one part positive. The first half of the ad targets ex-Sen. George Allen's record in Congress, claiming that Allen "turned the largest budget surplus into a massive federal deficit", "voted to weaken Medicare", and "gave tax breaks to companies who shipped jobs overseas". The sour tones of the ad are topped with 15 seconds of praise for Tim Kaine's pro-business tenure as governor.

4:26 PM PT (James L): MT-Sen: The DSCC's latest ad buys seem to be following the same trend. Like they did last week in Indiana, the DSCC is sending money to the Montana Democratic Party for the purposes of airing an attack ad against Republican Denny Rehberg. In Indiana, this technique supposedly allowed the committee to take advantage of cheaper media prices that were only available to in-state buyers. I'm not sure if the same can be said for their Montana buy, but note that the ad, which paints Rehberg as a pawn of Wall Street, curiously contains 501(c)-style language ("contact Dennis Rehberg and remind him: he's Montana's congressman – not Washington's or Wall Street's"). I'm not sure why the MDP would need to include that type of language in their ad, but perhaps rules exist in the state to give media buyers a better rate if the "public interest"/"issue advocacy" card is played.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 08:32:56 AM PDT

  •  Washington referendum (5+ / 0-)

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 08:44:19 AM PDT

  •  Just wanted to say thank you to everybody. (17+ / 0-)

    I always enjoy lurking in these Live Digest threads and reading everybody's intelligent and civil commentary, and seeing local perspectives from around the country.  Thanks, everybody!

  •  More awesome from First Read (11+ / 0-)

    On a certain someone playing politics with immigration...

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:19:40 AM PDT

  •  re AZ-08 and Sam Stone (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, atdnext, MichaelNY

    Why would you be so stupid as to give someone your business card if you were doing under-the-table stuff?  Wouldn't you instead use something like a generic post-it or a hotel notepad for that stuff?

  •  MI-Sen (7+ / 0-)

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:30:10 AM PDT

  •  Write it down (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, atdnext, MichaelNY

    Romney said over the weekend he will win PA, now says he will win WI.

    link.

    I guess there is really no problem with these statements. If he wins the election, but loses these states, it doesnt really matter, he won the election. If he loses these states, and loses the election, well, losing the election is going to get most of the focus. And of course, as the losing candidate, no one will really care about predictions like this anyway.

    •  Charlie Black on Nov. 2, 2008 (link)...... (13+ / 0-)

      Black said McCain would probably win Pennsylvania and Iowa:  http://swampland.time.com/...

      False bravado is a sign that election day is getting closer!

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:46:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Perry said he would compete in California (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, James Allen, jj32, askew, MichaelNY

      I guess it projects confidence but beyond that it isn't really meaningful.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 10:02:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This was essentially (7+ / 0-)

      the point of Romney's bus tour: to target and proclaim strength in states Obama won last time. So it doesn't surprise me that he wouldn't make bluster-filled statements to try to feed this narrative.

      •  We'll wait and see if (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bear83

        he spends money in Pennsylvania. Right now he is polling remarkably weak there, and it is a very expensive state. Even the Chairman of the state GOP party said, in essence, that Romney can't really win the state in a news article a while back.

        Of course if Rove and the Koch brothers manage to bring together the 350 million dollars for the Presidential race that they are threatening, there will be plenty of money for a 10-20 million dollar ad barrage. Remains to be seen how effective that might be.

        I think many people are overstating the importance of ads and money. Yeah, sure it is important to have enough money to promote yourself as a candidate and your ideas on TV, and maybe even undermine your opponent at different points of your strategy, but once you have your ads out reaching people, the number of times they are seen doesn't really matter. In that vein, whether Obama spends 5 million dollars in advertising in say, Michigan, or better, Ohio, with another say 4 million in aid from outside Democratic groups, while Romney and the Crossroads groups spend 25 million, probably won't equate to much, if any vote gain. Advertising has limited effectiveness in a very high profile race; essentially spending a ton of money on advertising for a Presidential race is the least efficient way for conservatives to make their impact.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 10:31:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Is there any ad time left? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          Didn't someone here post a statement by Major Garrett saying how the ad time after the conventions was already bought? If that's the case, or more right than wrong, just where are they going to buy ads?

          On another note, what else are they going to do, they being both the Romney campaign and outside groups? Ads are important, but hardly the biggest factor. Campaign infrastructure is key, and while I'm more than prepared to walk back from my confidence if someone shows me otherwise, from everything I have seen, it looks like Romney is lagging here. At this point, I imagine he could get an operation up and running, but it wouldn't be cheap and he doesn't have much time to think about it.

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 11:03:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Advertising (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera
          once you have your ads out reaching people, the number of times they are seen doesn't really matter.
          Do you think Kleenex, IBM, Xerox, Nabisco, Toyota, Marlboro, Cheer, or any number of other big corporations/divisions believe this? I'll give you a perfect example: Bayer aspirin wouldn't sell worth a damn without pervasive advertising, such that a lot of unthinking people feel there's something particularly good about it. And that's why they're able to get away with charging a premium for a generic medication. And the best example of all is the water scam. Getting people to pay dollars for water? Talk about a sell job! Do you think the number of times people see a Poland Spring or Dasani ad has no effect? Then why do they sell so much? They're water! And Dasani is tap water, to boot!

          In short, unless you can demonstrate that the firm beliefs of hundreds of corporations around the world for decades are wrong, I won't agree. Yes, I think there are exceptions in which too much advertising actually makes someone more unpopular, but that's because their persona or/and ads are themselves annoying. I doubt most listeners got tired of Rush Holt's "Twinkle, Twinkle, Kenneth Starr" ad, because it was funny, and the more times it played, the more votes he got for his eventual upset of Mike Pappas.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 12:42:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Whether I see a Bayer ad (0+ / 0-)

            or a water ad doesn't matter anything to me. And my entire family is that way; they buy according to price and whether they need it, or in the case of a food brand, whether they like it, not because they saw an ad for it. That is the case for most ads most of the time they are seen. People buy Bayer because the price isn't the different and they are familiar with it, and perhaps the ads instill a vague sense of quality and safety for the name brand, in a low-information purchase situation with minimal importance. A Presidential Election is not a purchase of aspirin, the level of engagement and information is much higher than someone has purchasing aspirin.

            And again, people buy dasani or bottled water for a lot of reasons. They may prefer the taste; for instance two of the cities I live in have awful tasting tap water (without Florine also), or, as happens most for me, they are on the go and want a cold drink but don't want a soda for whatever reason.

            I'm not going to engage in some pedantic debate with you over this though. The effect of advertising in general is minimal even in low information purchase situations; companies spend billions to generate a small increase in revenue, or to just keep up with their opponents so they don't lose a small sum of revenue. With a high information situation, one where advertising plays a small portion of the informative region of the race, and where 90% of votes are already locked in, most advertising money is a waste. I haven't seen anything other than generic anti-Obama attack ads out of Rove and Co so far, so bringing up a Twinkle Twinkle Kenneth Starr situation is hedging the discussion in another direction by making a separate point which is that really good ads can help change a race, particularly if there is something damaging your opponent has done that most voters don't know about yet. Which is again, why I noted advertising advantages are far more effective and useful in a House race or even a Senate race than they are in a Presidential race.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 01:02:52 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I live in New York City (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              R30A

              We have pretty good water, yet loads and loads of people are paying lots of money for bottled water, including Dasani. If you don't think that's because advertising created a demand for it, I can only say you are willfully ignoring the truth. The fact that you think you make no decisions based on advertising - and possibly actually don't - is completely irrelevant to whether advertising works on people, in general. And most of them probably deny the power of ads on themselves just as vehemently as you do, because people don't like to admit we can be manipulated, but we can be, and the ad industry uses psychology to do that.

              Similarly, public relations works. After the Rockefellers hired goons to randomly shoot at coal strikers and their families from trains in Colorado, they hired the first public relationist, so that when people thought of "Rockefeller," their association was more likely to be "philanthropist" than "murderer" a few years later.

              Ignoring the pervasive effect of advertisements, rather than discussing it in a more nuanced manner, just seems ridiculous on a site like this, where the whole point is to analyze elections and campaigns. And if you think I'm being "pedantic," just what the hell do you think this site is about? You're a nerd, too; don't deny it!

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 01:17:15 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Fun fact: (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                The term public relations was invented because the term 'propaganda' had negative connotations, due to its use by the German military in world war one. But it was the implementation of the exact same principles, and very consciously so, but applied to the civilian realm. There's a really good documentary on public relations, advertising, and the manipulation of unconscious desires, called 'The Century of the Self,' which you can watch on YouTube.

              •  Oh no, I recognize the power of ads (0+ / 0-)

                I have been driven to want some things purely from advertising. But almost never from a TV ad, (not that I've watched a TV ad in several years; I almost never watch TV and skip channels whenever the ads start).

                Pedantic is a word I throw around when an argument doesn't interest me. Ads have a one time power, in my case at least; they can insert a suggestion on something I have no opinion. If I have an opinion on the other hand, and do happen to see the ad, it has no effect in my very cheap purchasing decisions. The only effective advertising is the Super Bowl kind of advertising, where the ad is so good or entertaining, in the messy jumble of horrifying boredom that is 99.99% of TV advertising, that, because it is so uniquely entertaining, it makes me think positively of that company. Unless they are a beer company. In which case I probably won't find their ad amusing anyway. But case in point, I love the "Most interesting man in the world" commercials, but have never bought the product they sell and don't even remember the name.

                Political ads are different of course, and with consumer ads I am probably in a very small demographic that doesn't get many things pitched at them, (and being a tight-wad who doesn't spend money except on books and music and weekend lunches at the local Thai restaurant probably doesn't help matters).

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 01:29:36 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Unsolicited advice (0+ / 0-)

                  Just say you're uninterested in engaging in a line of discussion (and adding "no offense" is also a good idea). Saying it's "pedantic" is insulting.

                  For my part, I actually don't think political ads are that different from ads for any other product. Getting someone who's been voting Democratic to consider (not necessarily to vote for, based on a single commercial seen once, but at least begin to consider the possible of possibly voting for) a Republican isn't that different from getting a Coke drinker to try Pepsi. And I guess in that analogy, people who drink Dr. Pepper, RC Cola (that still exists, right?), and other minor cola brands may be another group of "independent" potential "swing voters."

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 01:44:21 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  They are different (0+ / 0-)

                    An ad is the only engagement most people have with a product opposed to actually trying. There are other major realms of engagement for politics, and more fields of metrics for it.

                    Again, with a Presidential race, the most high information of all, this is most pronounced. And 90% of votes are already locked in. If you want those 10% of voters to pay attention to your ads the tenth they see them because they've been aired 10 million times, they will have to be a lot more interesting and less negative than anything I've seen put out by Crossroads yet. Getting a message or a response out to the bulk of the population is the important thing; and that only requires one or two viewings, which means Obama has all the money he requires to communicate that, which means that all the conservative advertising can't really hope to open a big advantage on the basis of just bulk.

                    Pedantic is an accurate word though, and it's meant to be a little deriding when a particularly useless or off-topic debate comes up, though not to be offensive to the user.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 01:56:11 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Eh, I don't think it's off-topic (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      andgarden

                      The effect of ads is one of the central issues in understanding contemporary (and even at least some 19th-century!) campaigns.

                      And now, you've put more nuances in. You're talking about negative vs. positive advertising. And I'm still unconvinced, because if negative ads didn't work, would there be so many of them? Haven't analyses demonstrated that negative ads often do work?

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:05:29 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  They certainly work well (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        in low information races with lots of soft voters.

                        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                        by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:15:41 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  But there are always enough low-information voters (0+ / 0-)

                          to turn close contests. And I'd argue that a lot of Reagan's voters were voting based on pure emotion that was a product of a combination of ads and PR from the candidate/president himself. So yes, I think that even landslides can turn to a large degree on something other than a purely intellectual and highly knowledgeable decision.

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:20:19 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  One thing people fail to mention (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            Is that Reagan ran a near total non-issues campaign in 1984. It was a 1920 Return to Normalcy Election. Reagan basked in some economic growth and ran on the "It's morning in America again" slogan, spending most of his time trying to come off as personally likeable and as a uniter while Mondale attempted to dredge up battles of the 70s and fractures that people wanted to be over with. People wanted to believe in a better future, and Reagan sold them that. Romney isn't selling that kind of message (which is closer to Obama's actually).

                            What's more people are far more engaged with politics than they were in the 1980s (in 1980 just 25% of America's population voted), and have more avenues of engagement than they did then.

                            Lastly, negative ads can be effective. But Crossroads is running such boring stereotypical "Obama is destroying the world" ads that they aren't offering anything new to right-wing issue flaming that moderates or swing voters haven't seen before.

                            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                            by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:25:33 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I'm not arguing that Crossroads specifically (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            ArkDem14

                            will be effective.

                            Mondale was completely truthful. He said it straight in the debates: "Both of us are going to raise your taxes. He won't tell you. I just did." And that's exactly what happened. Mondale was truthful, competent, and ran on issues. Reagan lied and was probably already at least moderately impaired with Alzheimers, so however competent he was in 1981 (which is open to question), I believe he was a lot less competent in 1984.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:51:59 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                      •  The best ads are the ones we internalize (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        so as to create a habit.

                        Ok, so I read the polls.

                        by andgarden on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:16:40 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

    •  He thinks he can get away with it... (5+ / 0-)

      And so far, most of the morons in the media are letting him get away with it. After all, their bosses stand to gain from additional ad revenue.

  •  Some Dude Dept. (6+ / 0-)

    I was surprised to see that William Feegbeh is challenging McGovern in the Democratic primary for MA-02. He has been a perennial candidate here in Brighton for several years. He considered running for mayor of Boston in 2009, saying

    "For me right now I should be running for higher office, maybe congressman or senator...but I dont have money so that causes me to run for a little one. If I had a job I'd wait for a few years and not mess with this one. It's an entry-level position in government.

    http://www.dotnews.com/...

    So he's now moved out to Worchester and is trying for that prestigous job. Except
    (Feegbeh has) been arrested twice in the last two months. His first arrest, which was on March 29 in Leominster, occurred while he was out campaigning; Feegbeh was charged with disorderly conduct, trespassing, assault and battery with a dangerous weapon, assault and battery on a police officer and resisting arrest.

    http://www.golocalworcester.com/...

    27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

    by bumiputera on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:43:31 AM PDT

  •  Maine-Init. (9+ / 0-)

    http://www.wbur.org/...
    http://www.scribd.com/...

    That 36% of Republicans support going back to gay marriage is a small miracle. We're heading in the right direction folks.

    22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

    by wwmiv on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:46:12 AM PDT

    •  PPP suggests good news from WA (9+ / 0-)

      in their tweet. Says we could go 4-4 on the marriage equality referendums.

      I hope they are right. Has anyone analyzed previous polling on this, to see if there is some kind of Bradley effect? I'm worried about getting my hopes up.

      •  Nate Silver (11+ / 0-)

        There is definitely a Bradley effect on this issue. We need to be ahead by more than 5 to 10 in order to be assured of victory. Maine looks to definitely go back to having legal gay marriage, Maryland is a lock, Washington seems promising a la the PPP tweet. Minnesota is the state I'm most worried about, despite its deep Democratic roots.

        22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

        by wwmiv on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:49:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  BTW (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          I wouldn't be surprised if the same kindof effect existed for gay candidates themselves. And if not for gay candidates writ large then at least for effeminate gay men in particular, who are more culturally outcast (and, oddly, particularly ostracized most recently within gay culture itself).

          22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

          by wwmiv on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:52:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Minnesota-Init. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bythesea

          On the Minnesota initiative, I've been surprised at the amount of Republican elite opposition to it. For instance:

          http://www.towleroad.com/...

          22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

          by wwmiv on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 10:01:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  "Going back" to marriage equality (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          is a misnomer. Maine never had it properly, it was put on hold when the NOMNOMNOMers got enough signatures and then it was repealed.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:14:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Need to be 6-8 points ahead in polls to win (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bythesea

        In CA, NC, ME, WA (domestic partnership), the average of polls the month prior to the election was off by 6-8 points in their margin.  For the most part, they got the support for civil rights correct, but understated opposition.  

        So, look for the polling average to have a margin > +8 in favor of equality, and/or look for 50%+ in favor of equality.   To feel comfortable you want to see something like 53-45 in favor of equality in the polls.

        Most recent polls for Maine, Maryland, and Washington look good.  Minnesota is iffy.

        Data:

        NC polls: 55-40
        Actual: 61-39

        ME polls: 47-49
        Actual: 53-47

        CA polls: 46-48
        Actual: 52-48

        Here's the one where the good guys won:
        WA polls: 51-39
        Actual: 53-47

      •  The Existence of the "Bradley Effect" is Debatable (0+ / 0-)

        If anything, undecided voters have been shown to move towards opposing marriage equality at the last minute. But there isn't that much evidence of people lying to pollsters regarding how they will vote.

        Many polls have been very close to the actual result, especially later polls.

        Some Examples:

        Prop 8 CA  Final Field Poll (10/31/08) MOE +/- 3.3
        Yes 44%
        No  49%
        Un  09%

        Actual Vote
        Yes 52.24%
        No  47.76%

        (No's are well within the MOE; Undecideds broke for it)

        Field Poll

        Prop 8 Post Mortem: Gay Bradley Effect?

        ME Q1 PPP Nov 2, 2009
        Yes 51%
        No 47%
        Un 02%

        Actual Vote
        Yes 53%
        No 47%

        (the No's are dead on, the Yea's are in the MOE)

        Maine Q1

        In both of these elections, polls showed trends moving toward the opponents of marriage equality.

        NC Amend 1 PPP May 1, 2012
        Yes 55%
        No 41%
        Un 04%

        Actual Vote
        Yes 61%
        No 39%

        (Undecideds broke for the measure, No's were in the MOE)

        NC 1

        Prior to Prop 8, polls were mainly correct, with additional evidence of undecideds breaking against marriage equality.

        According to Professor Patrick Egan of New York University, there is not much evidence of a "Bradley Effect" on marriage equality votes taken from 1998-2006 either. He points out that poll results usually reflected actual voting results, especially when one compares the share of supporters among decided survey respondents.

        Prof. Egan Research Paper

      •  "Bradley Effect" Never Existed (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        According to Lance Terrance, pollster of George Deukmejian's 1982 California Gubernatorial campaign, the "Bradley Effect" is a made up phenomena.

        Fascinating read, from 2008.

        Bradley Effect: Selective Memory

        •  No, not in terms of black candidates (0+ / 0-)

          You're right on that.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:52:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Partial revisionism (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          It wasn't pre-election polls that established the Bradley Effect.  It was the exit polls.

          As the article points out, Bradley won election day, but got creamed in absentees.  This led to the networks projecting Bradley the winner right at 8pm.

          However, he won the exits more strongly than he won the actual vote, so there was a mild Bradley Effect, but not nearly so much as it appeared after 8:01pm when almost everybody said Bradley won.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:55:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  What about the Kerry Effect or (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            the Barrett effect.  It's nothing to do with race but exit polling then. I have not seen an exit poll correct yet.
            They go back and change the exit numbers based on actual voting results/demographics.

            •  Exit numbers get adjusted for the crosstabs (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              The idea of an exit poll is not to determine the winner or margin of victory as is often falsely implied or stated. Exit polls are to gain insight into demographic and other patterns that could help explain why the results were what they were.

              I don't know the specifics of Kerry in Ohio, though it is important to remember that:

              - Exit polls are still polls, and they still have a MOE.

              - It is entirely possible to missample an exit poll, especially if the geographic distribution of support is unexpected. This is probably the "Barrett Effect", as exit pollers who focused on urban and suburban areas would have seen an even race.

              - One time out of twenty, a poll will fall outside of the margin of error for no reason beyond random chance.

              - Correct exit polls happen all the time, but don't make news in the same way.

              Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

              by fearlessfred14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 05:28:55 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Exit polls are very accurate (0+ / 0-)

              They were very accurate with Kerry in OH and FL, and were dead on with Barrett.

              You can't know proper exits the minute polls close.  You only have preliminary data then, which is usally pretty accurate.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:55:24 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  OR state house (8+ / 0-)

    I was not aware till a friend informed me, but our candidate for the open HD-09, Caddy McKeown, while a prominent community member in Coos Bay, is also the wife of a former mayor of Coos Bay.  I'm optimistic about holding this one.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 10:05:18 AM PDT

  •  CT-Sen: I'm not worried. (15+ / 0-)

    It's Connecticut. It's a Presidential year. And it's Linda McMahon, who lost in the red tidal wave year of 2010 despite having an endless supply of money and a boost from the NYT via its hit piece on Blumenthal. McMahon saturated the airwaves, and, much like Meg Whitman in California, the more people saw of her, the less they liked her. Say it with me now, folks: If she didn't win in '10, she ain't winning in '12.

    29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

    by The Caped Composer on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 10:10:35 AM PDT

    •  And I seriously doubt Chris Murphy... (10+ / 0-)

      Is a weaker campaigner than Richard Blumenthal. Rather, Murphy unseated an entrenched GOP incumbent (Nancy Johnson) in 2006 in what was the Reddest district in Connecticut! If Murphy could do that, he can best Linda McMahon.

    •  To be fair (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nimh, LordMike, MichaelNY

      Richard Bluementhal was only AG since a week before the state's creation. Bluementhal is a classic machine politician and may have killed his potential to go higher than senator but there are benefits to being that kind of pol, if you're willing to wait your turn than when it's your turn, it's your turn. I don't think people realize that he built such a deep rooted machine, and had so much built up goodwill that it was simply overwhelming, he never could have lost. I absolutely think Linda McMahon could have beat Chris Murphy in 2010, in a lot of ways I think the "if they couldn't do it in 2010 they can't do it now" line is quite silly, it's really only applicable if it's a rematch of the same people and maybe if you can show Republicans-Democrats have roughly equal candidates to their 2010 candidates, and there's really no objective criteria to decide that anyways. I would says this race tilts toward Murphy but writing it off like this is arrogant at best and dangerous at worst.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 10:27:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Chris Shays is getting to be (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, sapelcovits

      as pathetic as ex-Rep. Simmons in 2010.

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 04:35:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  ND-Sen: new Heitkamp ad (24+ / 0-)

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 10:27:51 AM PDT

  •  If McMahon couldn't win in '10 (10+ / 0-)

    She's not going to win in '12.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 10:41:24 AM PDT

    •  Agreed. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bythesea

      She might be in a better position, but better is ultimately meaningless if she still loses. Considering how blue Connecticut has become, I just don't see that happening.

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 10:55:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  HI-02: Gabbard and Hanneman now (9+ / 0-)

    in a statistical tie.

    http://www.civilbeat.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 10:49:55 AM PDT

    •  Good, I really hope Hanneman doesn't win (6+ / 0-)

      regardless of how Gabbard truly feels about the issues, I think she'll definitely vote the party line when push comes to shove.

      NC-06/NC-04 - progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 11:34:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  VoteVets appeal for Tulsi Gabbard (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      VoteVets sent out another tin cup appeal for Gabbard, on their email list, this afternoon

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 11:51:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  wow (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sawolf

      I still don't trust any Hawaii polling but that's quite a turnaround.  I definitely think Gabbard's leftward shifts have helped her among primary voters.

    •  You didn't mention (0+ / 0-)

      They actually have Gabbard leading 35-31, so a lead within the margin of error, but still most likely to be a lead. And that article is one of the most thorough analyses I've seen of a poll result. But how accurate is the Civil Beat Poll's track record?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 12:57:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm really disgusted (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      that in such a deep blue district, the top two choices are both weak-ass periwinkle Democrats.

      18, FL-24 (home) MD-07 (heart). UCF sophomore, Organizing for America Summer Organizer, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

      by tqycolumbia on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 12:59:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Marx and Kiaaina splitting the liberal vote. (0+ / 0-)

      If one hypothetically dropped out and endorsed the other they would have a clear shot but right now it looks like they're both long shots, at least they're cracking double digits (in a four-way race, that's respectable) with two months still left to go. If there's one thing this shows, it's that most of the frontrunners support is very soft.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 01:03:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've heard Kiaaina is in the similar vein (0+ / 0-)

        of Ed Case. Social liberal, but economically conservative. I've heard this, but I can't be sure.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:15:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Sweet (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, bumiputera

      I'll have diary material for years and years to come.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:37:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WA Gov: McKenna 42-40 (7+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 11:04:10 AM PDT

  •  Steve King, "Scrappy" (5+ / 0-)

    The same man described by CBS in a top-linked Google News article thusly:

    There are other reasons evangelicals will be motivated. In 2010, social conservatives worked together to unseat three judges who had overturned the state's same-sex marriage ban. Another judge, David Wiggins, is up for re-election in this cycle and the same organization of social conservatives are gunning for him. Wiggins is pugnacious and spoiling for a fight, so the race is likely to stir up some news coverage. It's unlikely the gambit will be successful, but committed evangelicals will turn out. While they're at the voting booth, they're likely to vote for Romney, too.

    Romney also benefits from Steve King. The firebrand GOP congressman is running in that portion of the state where Republicans do well. He is facing off in a redistricted 4th District against Christie Vilsack, the wife of the former governor and current agriculture secretary.* King is scrappy and a fierce critic of President Obama. Voters motivated to come out for him will add to Romney's numbers.

    King who has also made statements like:
    I don't want to disparage anyone because of their race, their ethnicity, their name - whatever their religion their father might have been," I'll just say this: When you think about the optics of a Barack Obama potentially getting elected President of the United States -- I mean, what does this look like to the rest of the world? What does it look like to the world of Islam? I will tell you that, if he is elected president, then the radical Islamists, the al-Qaida, the radical Islamists and their supporters, will be dancing in the streets in greater numbers than they did on September 11 because they will declare victory in this War on Terror. Additionally, his middle name (Hussein) does matter. It matters because they read a meaning into that in the rest of the world...If he were strong on national defense and said 'I'm going to go over there and we're going to fight and we're going to win, we'll come home with a victory,' that's different. But that's not what he said. They will be dancing in the streets if he's elected president. That has a chilling aspect on how difficult it will be to ever win this Global War on Terror."
    And when criticized, doubled-down, saying:
    Obama will) certainly be viewed as a savior for them.... That's why you will see them supporting him, encouraging him."
    Leading John McCain's campaign to criticize him and call him out. (On a side note, how wrong King was; Obama has pursued an even more proactive and more illegal drone and assassination campaign against the Al Qaeda leadership than the Bush administration, and did almost everything thinkable to salvage Afghanistan). King later again made headlines saying that Obama being sworn in under his birth name of Hussein was bizarre.

    And these are just the comments he's made towards Obama; he also defended racial profiling, in essence:

    In defense of Arizona’s immigration crackdown, Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) said he believes appearance-based profiling can play a valuable role in law enforcement.

    “It’s not wrong to use race or other indicators for the sake of identifying that people are violating the law,” King said on the House floor, calling for “common sense indicators” to be used in the process.

    “Those common sense indicators,” he explained, “are all kinds of things, from what kind of clothes people wear — my suit, in my case — what kind of shoes people wear, what kind of accent they have, um, the, the type of grooming they might have, there are all kinds of indicators there and sometimes it’s just a sixth sense and they can’t put their finger on it.”

    King said he was once a victim of profiling when a cab driver stopped for him without request because he was wearing a suit.

    Yes. That's scrappy alright.

    On a less snarky note, can anyone imagine how the media would treat a Democratic congressman, say a minority congressman, that made statements of the exact tone and implication as King's, but simply from the polar opposite direction, (someone like Charles Barron in he were a Congressman). I'm thinking that scrappy firebrand who energizes liberal voters by being a fierce critic of the Republican establishment would not be how they would describe that person.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 11:07:33 AM PDT

    •  Yeah, he's a real Scrappy-Doo (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, LordMike

      Actually, I'd rather listen to hours of overly enthusiastic Scrappy-Doo catchphrases than a single sentence out of Steve King's mouth.

      Are the Iowa farmers in "American Gothic" listening to King or Bob Vander Platts deliver a speech?  That must explain why they're rolling their eyes to the heavens.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 01:03:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I feel like the President of Mexico (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    uclabruin18, MichaelNY

    threw a lifeline to the GOP by praising the decision on young illegal immigrants. Expect to see his words in a GOP ad in the fall.

    But still, it's clear this is an issue Romney is very uncomfortable talking about, and not an issue he really wants to move to Obama's right on.

  •  PPP hint on Colorado (13+ / 0-)
  •  FYI: Rubio says he wont introduce (8+ / 0-)

    his version of the DREAM act.

  •  John Kerry selected to be Obama's debate partner (12+ / 0-)

    link

    Kerry/Romney jokes aside, it's a pretty good choice. Kerry is good at debates. They helped him win re-election in 1996, and helped bring him back in the 2004 race, when it was starting to look like a runaway for Bush.

    I think Obama's debate skills are underestimated, because of all the teleprompter nonsense from the right. That works to his advantage. But Romney is very good at debates too, so we shouldnt underestimate him either.

  •  US-Pres prediction roundup (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, pademocrat, Sharon Wraight

    Various percentage predictions of the probability of a Democratic electoral college win, lowest to highest:

    54    Intrade
    55    IEM
    59    Betfair
    60    UK bookmaker average
    63    FiveThirtyEight
    64    iPredict

    My thoughts: the two US-based prediction markets (by US I mean in terms of where the majority of partcipants live) are significantly lower than anywhere else. I think overemphasis on national polls and the constant "it's so close!" US media narrative are the reason for that. Betfair tends to consistently track a few points higher than Intrade. Perhaps there are some multiple market participants using arbitrage whenever it is worth while to keep the gap between them low.

    FiveThirtyEight and the NZ prediction market iPredict have the most realistic numbers, but I think even they are a little too low. One clear example: 538 has Barack Obama's chances of winning Colorado (56.5%) much closer to 50-50 than his chances of winning Florida (only 36.7%) which I can't agree with. I think the 538 model is (at least this far out from November) a tad harsh in its state fundamentals and adjusting Registered Voter polls.

    I've still got it in the 65-70% range, albeit at the low end (66 maybe just 67) now.

    •  I think Intrade moves with the stock market (5+ / 0-)

      Someone had a nice graph tracking the stock market with Obama's % in Intrade, and it was fairly close.

      •  There are certainly some shared factors (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, LordMike

        But also some differences.

        Intrade's DEM.PRESIDENT.2012 conract was consistently around 60 for a few months from early February to mid-May, then dropped to a plateau around 58 for two weeks weeks, then dropped again to a level around 53-54 in early June where it has been ever since.

        In the same time, the Dow climbed 5% in the few months the Intrade contract stayed close to 60, then dropped 10% in May to early June (somewhat matching the Intrade contract dip from 60 to 54) but since then has bounced back and already regained half the May losses.

        So they can correlate loosely when significant economic news happens, which is to be expected, but other than that they don't track very closely at all; they've clearly diverged in the past few weeks in particular.

    •  These prediction markets are junk (6+ / 0-)

      The consensus on DKE is smarter than those things any day.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 04:17:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think it's more nuanced than that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sharon Wraight

        The ones I observed range (my opinion) from junk to fairly reasonable, although I still think even the highest ones are a bit low.

        But I'm not aware that there really is any such thing as a "consensus on DKE." A contract paying $100 on a Democratic electoral college win in November, $0 otherwise, has some current value between $0 and $100. These markets put it in the range $54 to $64, and I think it is in the high 60s, but I've rarely seen any other estimates of that value here let alone a consensus. Are commenters reluctant to put a value on it, or just don't like to think about it?

        There are undoubtedly elements of junk comprising the price on each market, and I think for this event the greatest distortion is going to occur in the markets that have a majority of US participants and the highest US media profile: Intrade, and to a lesser extent IEM. That distortion tends to have two major components: one favoring GOP, and one pulling the value towards a 50-50 middle point (which are both acting in the same direction now) which is why I'm not surprised they are so low and at the "junk" end of the spectrum.

  •  CNN reporting that Artur Davis... (16+ / 0-)

    ...is endorsing Romney.  Wolf is so excited, I think he's going to burst!

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 01:27:28 PM PDT

  •  Gary Peters touting another prominent (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    endorsement in Detroit's black grassroots/establishment network:

    http://www.petersforcongress.com/...

    I'm beginning to think that Hansen Clarke has been a seriously bad representative to alienate people so much.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 01:43:52 PM PDT

    •  Clarke (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, MichaelNY, MetroGnome, sapelcovits

      I don't think Clarke has been a bad representative.  There has to be something going on here.  I've read that some think Peters is being set up to run for the Senate or Governor in 2014.  I hope this isn't true because his last attempt at statewide office didn't end well in 2002.

      Endorsements can only do so much.  I don't think Peters is a good fit for the district.  I still think Clarke wins.    

      •  Someone who lives there commented (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Xenocrypt, DCCyclone

        on DKE not along ago that she's seen far more of Peters than she ever saw of Kilpatrick or Clarke.

        As for Peters 2002 Attorney General race, I suppose being the closest race in 52 years in an otherwise good year for Republicans in a swingish state counts as disaster for you. Peters seems to have improved since then, and has been working his connections for many years developing his profile. I think he would be a good candidate for Governor or Senator if Levin retired.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:21:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  2002 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Other Democrats did win in 2002, such as Granholm.  Why is "being the closest race in 52 years" a good thing?  It's not like it was a position that Republicans controlled forever and Peters was the first candidate to come close to winning.  In fact, Democrats had controlled the AG office since 1955 until Cox won in 2002.  

          Peters wouldn't even be in my top 3 to replace Sen Levin if he retires (which I don't think he will).  I don't hate Peters...just not my favorite candidate.  

          •  Who has a better record? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            And Peters has a lot more experience and a much better profile now. He also managed to get reelected in 2010 when many Democrats in similar districts lost, so you shouldn't assume he has improved his campaigning skills since 2002.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 03:01:30 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Candidates (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, sawolf, pademocrat, bumiputera

              Dan Kildee would be my top choice for the senate in 2014 if Levin was to retire.  State Sen. Gretchen Whitmer is my favorite candidate for governor.  

              •  Mark Schauer (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, ArkDem14

                People seem to forget about him but I think he will run for Gov. He is awesome and I remember how he stood up strong and defended the ACA even when he knew it would tank his re-election chances.

                M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

                by slacks on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 04:23:55 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Really? (8+ / 0-)

                An unproven campaigner from a safely Democratic area who leached off his father's name recognition and political machine? And who would have served just one term in the House, in addition to a few years on a downballot position in Genesee County before trying to run for Governor in 2010 and dropping out because he was doing so terribly in the polling? That's who you are promoting over Gary Peters?

                Whitmer's only electoral experience is also in a safely Democratic area. Having looked her up, (not being overly familiar with her other than that she was the Minority Leader), her quick drop out of the Attorney General race in 2010 doesn't provide much of a template for how she would do in statewide races. She's an experienced legislator, but still very young and untested from a statewide perspective. Seeing how Bernero flared out in 2010 makes me hesitant about another Lansing progressive running for Governor. The best candidates would probably be from Oakland or Macomb counties.

                I'm just wanting to get this straight. You're holding Gary Peters' narrow loss in a 2002 statewide race as a reason he's no good to run for statewide office now...while promoting a pair of people who dropped out of 2010 races for whatever reason, and, like I said, have no track of winning competitive races (Peters unseated an 8-term incumbent easily in 2008, and then won reelection in 2010 despite being heavily targeted, and appears to be doing very well in his race against Hansen Clarke in the Democratic primary). Not to mention both these folks have significantly less name recognition than Peters does given his prominence in the main media market of the state.

                It all equates to not having real electability issues with Peters, but rather some other, less legitimate beef that you are outlining.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 04:35:59 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Really excellent argumentation. n/t (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  sawolf, DCCyclone

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 04:45:26 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Ok... (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  SLDemocrat, DCal, bumiputera

                  First, Dan Kildee is Dale's nephew, not his son.  Just because someone comes from a political family doesn't mean they are not a worthy candidate.  He has served as Genesee County treasure.  I also like his work on the Genesee County Land Bank because it deals with a big issue facing MI (and other "rust belt" states).  I saw a few debates/interviews he did during his short run for governor in 2010 and I was impressed with him.  I think he would go over well with voters.  

                  In 2010, everyone assumed John Cherry would be the nominee.  That's until he unexpectedly dropped out in early January.  Many people who weren't even thinking about running suddenly had an opening.  Bernero, in large because of his FOX rant defending the auto industry, quickly got most of the union support.  Kildee quickly realized this and dropped out so there wouldn't be a divide allowing DINO Andy Dillon to win the nomination.  That's why he dropped out, not because he was polling badly.

                  Gretchen Whitmer said she dropped out because she is a single mother and felt it wasn't the right time to be away from her daughters.  So I wouldn't use this as an indication that she's a bad candidate.  You also call her "untested" statewide but want to gloss over the fact that when Peters was tested statewide, it didn't go well.  

                  Peters winning in 2008 isn't that impressive given almost every Democrat won.  In 2010, he was fortunate to face a pretty bad Republican candidate with a lot of baggage and wasn't able to break 50%.  

                  I don't really get why you are so quick to make a judgment about the electability of candidates you don't seem very familiar with.  Discounting candidates just because they serve in safe Democratic areas is ridiculous.  I guess Obama shouldn't have been nominated for president since he's also from a strongly Dem area.  

                  If you don't mind me asking, why are you so defensive of Peters?

                  •  In the last public poll of the race (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SLDemocrat, MichaelNY

                    before Kildee dropped out, (I looked it up before I mentioned his 2010 campaign), he was polling at 6% and tied for third, though I do keep getting his relationship to Dale Kildee (who is not exactly a great congressman either). He obviously didn't go over well because Bernero outflanked him with Union support and raised more money to take the spot of chief opponent to Andy Dillon after Cherry decided not to run.

                    I wasn't criticizing Whitmer, I just noted she's still quite young by political standards and choice not to get into a statewide race (which honestly speaking she would have certainly lost). Again, quit talking about Peters' 2002 run as if it were disaster; he lost by .17% points against a top-tier Republican candidate in a less than stellar year for Democrats obviously. Since then he's held a variety of other positions of influence, and served 2 terms in the U.S. House of Representatives.

                    As far as electability goes, in state elections having a local base of support in the majority swingish areas is important, moreso than in a Presidential race because there more soft voters in such a downballot race, and it certainly doesn't hurt. It doesn't hurt that Flint is a tremendously negatively viewed city; anyone running statewide with a base there has to deal with that negative perception that is far worse than even Detroit's.

                    But the real reason I'm defending Peters so adamently is your snide piles of bull against him. So he was held under 50% in 2010; Gabrielle Giffords was held under 50% in 2010 as well, by Jesse Kelly! Melissa Bean lost to Jim Walsh. Ron Kind came within a hairsbreadth of losing to Dan Kapanke; plenty of good Democrats lost or almost to horrible Republican recruits who ran second-rate campaigns in similar districts. Bob Dold even held onto IL-10. Peters was one of the only suburban Democrats in the entire midwest to successfully win reelection in 2010, and he was heavily targeted. The same in 2008, he stomped Knollenberg despite the substantial money spent to save the 8-term incumbent.

                    It's the fact that you are engaging in this ridiculous and dishonest argument that Peters doesn't have the best overall portfolio and the most experience running big time, competitive campaigns of any candidate in the Democratic arsenal for the two major possible 2014 races that makes me irritably press this point with you no matter how much you try to obfuscate things.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 06:49:09 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  A few points... (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      SLDemocrat, bumiputera

                      Cox was not a great candidate for Republicans.  So quit trying to gloss over over Peters' past failure.  He should have won in 2002 and he didn't...it's that simple.   Also, you need to stop acting like 2002 was 2010.  It wasn't.  

                      Dan Kildee was in the governors race for a week.  A week!  The problem was Bernero already had the union support.  Kildee waited too long to get in the race.  To hold up some poll from six months before the primary as evidence that he was a poor candidate is ridiculous....especially given his short presence in the race.    

                      Yes, Peters did do a good job of surviving in 2010 but he was also lucky to have a bad GOP candidate.  If the GOP had nominated anyone else, he probably would've have lost.  If Knollenberg had run again, it probably wouldn't have even been close.

                      There was nothing dishonest about my remarks about Peters.  Apparently you have issue with people having a difference of opinion.  I actually live here and wouldn't have Peters at the top of the list of potential candidates.  I worry about his past statewide performance.  He might have more statewide appeal now but you don't know the answer any more than I do.  I would rather try another candidate, who I think is stronger, than to going with Peters.  Maybe you don't mind taking the risk that he may not any anymore statewide appeal than he did in 2002 because it won't directly affect you if he loses again.  

                       

                      •  In the defense of every candidate (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, bumiputera, ArkDem14

                        1) Peters probably wasn't going to win 2002. Even though Jenny G won, Democrats lost both the AG and SoS races. That repeated in 2006 (a better year for the Democrats). Peters has grown some sense then as well. Many think he should be our nominee in a statewide race because he is the most electable Democrat. If he wins his current primary, he should have increased his popularity in Detroit. This may help improve turnout in 2014.

                        I am operating with the assumption that Levin is retiring. I don't see three Democrats that could possibly be considered ahead of Peters for Senate. If Levin does not retire, I could understand people that prefer Kildee, Whitmer or Schauer for Governor. Preference for those candidates should be based on character/policy not perceived electability.

                        2) Dan Kildee did a great job as Genesee County Treasurer. His work with the land bank is a model for the entire nation. He made a smart move by not running in 2010 because no Democrat would have won. That being said, I have not heard his name mentioned before and can't imagine him giving up a safe seat for what could be a tough primary and general election.

                        3) From what I hear, Gretchen Whitmer wants to be Governor. She will have a lot of support, and will probably get many endorsements. She is a pretty good speaker and a solid progressive. She has her flaws but she is doing everything she needs to win the primary. Outside of Stabenow, she is the most prominent, elected, female Democrat in the state. She will be term limited so she has nothing to lose.

                        M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

                        by slacks on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 11:08:58 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  At the very least Whitmer (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          would probably be a good AG choice.

                          I still don't know what blueoynx is saying about Mike Cox; sure the guy screwed up his 2010 gubernatorial race big time, it doesn't mean he wasn't a high-profile State Senator nor that it wasn't a heavily targeted race by Republicans (which Democrats lost again by larger margins in 2006 and 2010).

                          Nobody has Peters' range of contacts, name recognition, or proven campaign experience and personal, especially from his two U.S. House elections, which also brought him in contact to a national fundraising base. There is no one that even comes close to Peters in terms of candidate quality for Levin's seat, and Peters was also a brave, solidly progressive Democrat.

                          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                          by ArkDem14 on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:01:30 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  AGG, LG choice (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                            by ArkDem14 on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:04:03 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Cox (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            ArkDem14

                            When was Mike Cox a "high-profile State Senator?"

                            Peters is solidly progressive?  No, he's a moderate.  

                            Rep. Gary Peters remained Michigan's most moderate member of Congress in 2010, according to the National Journal's annual congressional vote ratings.
                            http://www.mlive.com/...

                            Although, he may become more liberal since he's running for a strongly Dem seat.

      •  A lot of people (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        think Peters is running for Senate in 2014.

        Clarke has been a pretty good Representative. From I understand, much of this is because some people dislike Clarke at the personal level for various reasons.

        M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

        by slacks on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:23:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Would Clarke be in better shape (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      if he hadn't flipped districts with John Conyers?  I have never understood the rationale for the switch.

      •  I think so (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Clarke is facing stronger opponents in MI-14 with Peters and Brenda Lawrence.  

      •  They flipped to protect Conyers (4+ / 0-)

        Conyers feared the primary challenge from Bert Johnson. Johnson's Senate district overlaps much more with MI-14 than MI-13. Conyers only currently represents 19% of MI-14. In addition, Conyers represents a higher percentage of MI-13 than Clarke.

        At the time of the switch, it made some sense for Clarke too. He represents a higher percentage of MI-14.

        M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

        by slacks on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 04:09:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Most of Clarke's... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        ...old district is in the new district he's running for.  Plus, he'd have been absolutely destroyed if he chose to run against Conyers.  It'd have been very bitter.

        This is still Clarke's race to lose.  The only way I see Peters winning is if he goes on television early and sustains it.

  •  Hawaii (5+ / 0-)

    The alternative is Merriman just aren't very good...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:12:38 PM PDT

  •  Restore Our Future (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY, tietack

    to spend 7 Mill on TV ads in CO, NC, FL, OH, PA, NV, IA and NH.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    The only thing I'm surprised is VA isn't on there this time. Guess they're just cycling through some at different times.

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:26:34 PM PDT

    •  Ah (8+ / 0-)

      Still spending in your non-swing state home state I see.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:28:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No it means Romney has (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY, bythesea, pademocrat

      probably written off Virginia. :) Kidding.

      Somewhat surprised WI isnt on there though.

    •  Sounds like the McCain path to 270 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, MichaelNY, Sharon Wraight

      Suggests that PA would be Romney's --presumed-- (aka extra unlikely) "tipping point" state.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 07:14:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Most analysts don't see Mitt contesting PA (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, aamail6

        Mitt has traveled to the state once or twice and the superpacs and other allied groups have aired attack ads against.  And OFA is acting like it's highly competitive.

        But Chuck Todd moved it from tossup to lean Obama because under the surface, the GOP isn't ramping up an organization in the state that Republicans need to overcome a nearly 1 million voter registration deficit.  And other pundits have put it at lean Obama, and of course public polls show Obama only pulling away compared to last year when it looked hairy.

        My take is that the private polling shows Obama holding probably only a mid-single digit lead, but with Obama in the high 40s.  That would harmonize OFA's nervousness with the GOP's reluctance to treat it as a serious pickup opportunity.

        The GOP really does need to organize the state well to have a shot there in close election.  And they're not doing that.  So I think they're not serious about it.  Mitt will look at Iowa and Wisconsin before Pennsylvania, and really perhaps only Iowa.  The Gore/Kerry states are really stubborn, the GOP doesn't have anything they can feel good about there.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:07:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  PA is on the list, WI (and VA) is not (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Sharon Wraight

          You've said more than once, in essence, "don't listen to the pundits, follow the money".

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:15:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  PA but not VA? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack, MichaelNY

            I'd think that VA would be an easier get for Rmoney unless it's trending left really, really fast. Pennsylvania has this stubborn habit of voting Dem by small margins...

            Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

            by fearlessfred14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:54:45 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You're stating the conventional wisdom (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              but if the campaign is spending money in PA and not VA, that is significant.

              The one explanation that fits within that conventional wisdom is a McCain '08 strategy, suggesting that if Romney spends and wins PA, he's already won VA.

              But that's not necessarily true, especially in a campaign where Romney and his PACs may have $750 million to spend.

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 10:23:35 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  No, there's more than one GOP list, and... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, tietack, MichaelNY

            ...this one is NOT Romney's campaign spending.

            Romney is spending in only 4 states:  Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, and North Caroilna.

            The superpacs and other wingnut groups are airing attack ads in 10 or 11 states, with Michigan and Pennsylvania the Gore/Kerry states I'm certain about, and I think perhaps Wisconsin post-recall but my memory is hazy on that one.  The other 8 states are Bush/Obama states, and Romney in advertising in only 4 of those.

            Yes, I say follow the money, but it's an assymetrical rule right now because it works only with Obama's ad spending.  That's because Obama is flush with cash and isn't counting on superpacs and other groups to be able to carry any water.  Some of those groups are helping anyway, but OFA isn't counting on them, instead they're acting on the assumption they have to be self-sufficient.  And of course OFA has spent millions on in-house polling and focus groups.  So you can rely on following their spending to figure out what's going on.

            It's different on Team Red.  Their advertising is dispersed because Mitt has had to ramp up his fundraising from scratch since wrapping up the nomination, and it's unknown whether the superpacs and other wingnut groups airing ads do any of their own polling or have access to campaign or party private polling...in fact, I bet they don't, I bet they just go by public polling and their own knowledge and instincts to decide what's competitive and fruitful.  I think the the situation in Michigan proves my point, because even after a couple public polls showed a dead heat and the wingnut groups have been airing attack ads there, OFA still won't react.  That tells me private polling shows Obama up big and not damaged at all, while the wingnut groups don't have knowledge of that.  That latter point could be wrong, maybe they think they can tear down Obama and are just taking a flyer on it even after knowing the numbers...but I suspect they think it's more competitive than it is.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:10:53 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Polling is not that expensive (4+ / 0-)

              Based on the numbers we hear for PPP, robopolling of the 8 states in question would cost perhaps 0.5% of the $7 million being invested.

              If the Super PACs aren't doing their own private polling before spending money, that is political malpractice on their part.

              I thought "Restore our Future" was run by Carl Forti, "Rove's Rove", ref http://www.motherjones.com/...

              Republican strategist Carl Forti has been described, variously, as "Karl Rove's Karl Rove" (Politico), "one of the smartest people in politics you've never heard of" (Karl Rove), and "the Alexander the Great of the Republican independent expenditure world" (Republican operative Bradley Blakeman)
              Forti's their "best and brightest". If he's not polling before spending that kind of money...

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:33:56 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  NY-Sen: Republican Debate (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, MichaelNY, R30A, pademocrat

    Watch it here

    Watching their response to Obama's immigration policy shows that Obama's policy won't hurt him politically.

    M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

    by slacks on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:28:53 PM PDT

  •  CT-05/General Interest (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, bumiputera

    In my (ahem) big and labor-intensive new diary looking at Fairfield County, I noticed a pretty amazing fact:

    Of Fairfield County's 40 or so State House seats, Democrats hold every single one with a Median Household Income below $70k (according to the ACS), and only four seats with a MHI above it.

    (Unless I screwed up, which is always possible.)  

    Anyway, I only mentioned two of the four "anomalies" in my diary--the districts which split up my hometown of Westport.  The third is William Tong's district.

    And the fourth, and maybe the most impressive, is CT-HD-106, which includes most of Newtown, and is represented by Christopher Lyddy.  Newtown is in CT-05, not CT-04.  It's heavily white, has a MHI of $108,148, might be Republican-leaning in general (I think his district was around 51% Obama), and doesn't have an urban or cosmopolitan feel at all.  It does have good food, though.

    Lyddy kept his seat in 2010, and his voting record might actually be to the left of Elizabeth Esty's--his only "Nays" were on a minimum wage increase, "Regionalization of State Emergency Telecommunications", "Partial Refund of Sales Tax Imposed on the Sale of School Buses with Seat Belts", and the National Popular Vote, which Esty also opposed.  He backed paid sick leave and election-day registration.

    I wonder if Lyddy's been recruited for CT-05 before.  All I know about him is what I've written, basically, but I can't really imagine a better "profile" (sigh) for a Democratic candidate for CT-05.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 02:50:56 PM PDT

    •  Although... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      He's retiring for no apparent reason.  ("While there was no single factor that lead me to this decision, not running for re-election will ensure that I have the time and energy to focus on professional and personal growth.")  That's odd.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 03:41:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Apparently (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, ArkDem14, bumiputera

      Lyddy "said he will work to earn his clinical social work license this summer and is pursuing career opportunities that would take time away from serving in the Legislature."

      And--I didn't realize this--he was only 27 in 2010!

      NEWTOWN -- Amid claps, screams, hugs and even whistles, incumbent state Rep. Chris Lyddy walked into Democratic headquarters late Tuesday evening with a big grin on his face, saying "That was a close one!"

      With about a 300-vote margin, Lyddy won a second two-year term over Republican challenger George Ferguson for state representative in the 106th District.

      About 30 of Lyddy's supporters, including his four siblings, aunts, uncles and cousins, filled the packed headquarters on Glen Road.

      "The people of Newtown appreciate the things I've done. Even with the anti-incumbent sentiment, Newtown moved past that. People need someone that's responsive to their needs. They need someone they can trust and hold accountable. These are two things they can count on with me," Lyddy, 27, said.

      A Newtown native, he attended Newtown public schools and Salve Regina University in Rhode Island. He has a master's degree in social work from the University of Pennsylvania and is program director for the YES! (Youth Equipped for Success) program, based in Hartford.

      Note that "30 of Lyddy's supporters" were enough to pack his headquarters.  Newtown doesn't have a lot of large buildings.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 03:50:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY-Sen: Bob Turner's anti-Bieber rally goes crazy (8+ / 0-)

    No, I'm not making this up.

     Bob Turner staged a press conference to protest a kindergarten swapping a patriotic song for a Justin Bieber tune at it's graduation ceremony.  Turner brought a bunch of ten year-olds, who got heckled.  

    Story and video here.

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 03:01:26 PM PDT

  •  Tweet from Markos: Obama sees bump (7+ / 0-)

    in Latino support:

    Don't forget that Obama made his announcement on Friday, so the poll had already been in the field for a day.

    •  Romney's latest criticism is that (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sulthernao, askew

      Obama is using the illegal young people as a political football

      I think as long as Romney doesnt have a clear plan of his own, his criticism doesnt really work. You can certainly argue Obama's move is political, but it's also substantive, and the natural question is what Romney would do differently. He doesnt have an answer for that.

      •  Romney is an expert (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        on political calculation when it comes to immigration. He used it relentlessly to hammer McCain four years ago and Perry this past year.

        At least Obama's new tack is in line with his previously stated positions and legislative initiatives (e.g. DREAM in 2010).

        Romney, on the other hand, is indelicately trying to find a way to undo some of the harsh, overtly political approaches he took during the primary.

      •  But would you or would you not undo (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        the exec. order, Mitt.

        "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 07:23:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's not a bump, it's pure noise (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      propjoe, bumiputera

      Look at Obama's Hispanic support in the DK/SEIU weekly polls over, say, several months, and you'll see it's normally in the 60s.  Last week was an outlier.  Occasionally there are even worse outliers.  It's just the noise of a small subsample, nothing more.

      Markos is irrationally exuberant.  There is nothing to see here.

      That doesn't mean the new non-deportation policy doesn't help.  It just means it's silly to think it moves numbers right away like that.

      Much of what a Presidential campaign does is geared toward affecting actual voting in the fall, not moving poll numbers in June.  That's even more true of what a sitting President does, using the levers of executive power.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 07:32:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have a feeling (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

        (and yes, this is just a feeling, not authoritative at all) that this is the sort of issue that can move numbers fast. It is something that many Latinos in the U.S. will understand on a visceral level as soon as they hear it.

        That isn't to say that this particular poll represents movement related to this issue, just that I think we'll see a DREAM-related bump, among Latinos, across quite a few polls over the next couple weeks.

        •  This isn't that kind of game-changer (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack

          It's of limited scope, it's not comprehensive reform, and there's no path to citizenship.  It can be revoked by another policy change at any time.

          Hispanics will appreciate it for what it is, and it will help us, yes, but I don't think it moves poll numbers.

          Bolstering that point is that most polls of Hispanics already show us pretty much maxing out.  We normally get between 60% and 70% of Hispanics, on rare occasions higher than 70 or lower than 60 in unusual instances.  All the polling now has Obama already leading Mitt by 30-40 points among Hispanics, which is pretty much the same as last time.  There are a large minority of Hispanics who are just plain conservative and Republican, and don't respond to the same political simuli as their majority brethren.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 07:50:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  That's no noise (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42, itskevin

        That's a space station.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:28:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  A socialist candidate on the ballot in Indiana (6+ / 0-)

    for the state House. You think maybe Bloomington? No...
    It's in Carmel, in blood red Hamilton County, where 94% of voters in the primary pulled a GOP primary ballot and Mitch Daniels won about 90% in 2008.

    http://blogs.wishtv.com/...

    Somehow I don't think he is going to win.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 05:20:49 PM PDT

    •  Lol (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      My roommate last year was from Carmel. His family is solidly Republican. I'll have to ask him if he knows anyone that will be voting for the guy.

      20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

      by aggou on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 06:21:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I have family in Carmel (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      They're Catholic Democrats. Soft Democrats, but I know they didn't like Bush.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 06:24:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I am glad to know that there are (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, MichaelNY, bumiputera

        at least a few Democras there. Hamiton County = Indiana's Waukesha County

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 06:40:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But didn't Democrats improve quite a bit in 2008 (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          fearlessfred14, MichaelNY, bumiputera

          in Hamilton County because they actually campaign there or opened up an office or something along those lines? Granted, they were still walloped, but going from around 25.15 percent to about 38.45 percent is impressive. Those extra votes no doubt helped Obama win the state.

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:18:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Indeed they did (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, bumiputera

            Obama improved over Kerry by 12-15 points in most of the Indianapolis area counties, including Marion (which just barely went for Kerry, but was 64% Obama).

            Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

            by fearlessfred14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 10:03:04 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  if you were president who would make your (0+ / 0-)

    "master list" a la Nixon?

    Here would be mine (in no particular order)
    1 Paul Ryan
    2 Jason Chaffetz
    3 Tom McClintock
    4 Marco Rubio
    5 Scott Walker
    6 Jim Jordan
    7 Ron Johnson
    8 Mike Pence
    9 Scott Garrett
    10 Mike Pence
    11 Ralph Reed
    12 Trent Franks
    13 Jeff Flake
    14 Mick Mulvaney
    15 Eric Cantor
    16 Kevin McCarthy
    17 Jeb Hensarling
    18 Steve King
    19 Pat Toomey
    20 Chris Chocola

    also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 05:50:54 PM PDT

  •  Robyn Williams (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    to run for AG of Kentucky in 2015. And not the actor, Senate President David Williams' wife. And remember her father, the one who spent $4 million for her husband and tried to hide it? She will definitely have the money to run.
    http://www.courier-journal.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 06:45:29 PM PDT

    •  Ah, the Great Mentioner... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY
      The paper reported that several other well-known Kentucky Democrats already have been mentioned in media reports as possible candidates in 2015 to be the state’s chief law enforcement official. Included in that group are Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes; lawyer Andrew Beshear, son of Gov. Steve Beshear; former state Democratic Party chair Jennifer Moore; and state House Judiciary Chairman John Tilley of Hopkinsville.
      What?  Doesn't Jack Conway have any cousins or anything?  What about Crit Luallen's old roommate?

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 07:17:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd rather not have Tilley run (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The Hopkinsville area tilts Dem, but is usually shaky.

        "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 07:27:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The Dem map that (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          was thrown out give Tilley a fairly safe seat. There is a constitutional amendment that if passed will give more redistricting flexibility.
          Right now for the House, I see about about 23 seats in play. 15 Dem seats and 8 GOP seats. The Dems my have caught a break in Lonnie Napier's seat when the GOP nominated the wrong candidate. Still not an easy seat though.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 07:55:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, but money can't buy you love. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'm sure Democrats will not let her win this easily.   Who would you like to see run?

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 07:24:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MA-Sen: Brown places conditions on debate (6+ / 0-)

    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    First, Brown’s campaign manager Jim Barnett said in an open letter to the institute that Kennedy’s widow and president of the board of trustees, Vicki Kennedy, should not endorse a candidate in Brown’s race with Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren, in order to assure the campaign of the institute’s neutrality.

    And second, the Brown campaign wants MSNBC to withdraw as a sponsor

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 06:51:40 PM PDT

  •  Suggested Weekend Digest video? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 07:46:54 PM PDT

  •  One thought that I had in looking at the map (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    of the French elections for the National Assembly was the 11 French Abroad seats that the right would be in the bag for them. The went 7 for the PS, 3 for the UMP and one for the Greens.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 08:34:54 PM PDT

  •  WI-Sen: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Didn't you know that there is only one person in Wisconsin on food stamps and it is the only person in America on food stamps?  Hovde is right!

    •  We've already elected the guy as Senator (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      or more to the point, we elected an android of the same model. This could easily have been a Plastic Ron quote, with its out-of-touchness and its black-is-white thinking.

      Probably the strangest aspect of Hovde's campaign is the ad where he states the need to break the influence of Wall Street on Washington politicians. The only way electing Hovde would accomplish this would be by eliminating the middleman. Again, black is white.

      Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 10:09:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Just ran some very rough calculations... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades, bumiputera

    And I found that, assuming turnout in all areas was uniform, then-Sen. Obama carried southeast Alaska by about 0.2 points. I'm guessing -- it's extremely difficult to find turnout figures from Alaska, thanks in part to the "unorganized borough" -- more urbanized areas like Juneau and Sitka, which lean more Democratic, turned out at slightly higher rates than places like Prince of Wales–Hyder, which would slightly boost Obama's margin of victory, but the point is that it was extremely close.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 12:13:16 AM PDT

  •  AZ-08/02: Wow, that scribbled-on card says a lot (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY, bumiputera

    For one thing it showed that a week before the special election, Republican internal polls showed Barber down 3.  And then advises Barber to hit Kelly on social issues.  Really good that the Barber posted this to prove that this adviser did indeed provide pointers to the Barber campaign.  I wonder how the AZ GOP feels about this little act of sabotage.

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 12:59:31 AM PDT

  •  AZ-08: Here's something mappers will love (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    A rundown on how each precinct went in the special election:
    http://azstarnet.com/...

    And here's a zoom-in on the Tucson metro area:
    http://azstarnet.com/...

    CD-08, in becoming CD-02, will lose Saddlebrooke (in Pinal County), Republican Marana, light red Oro Valley, its Santa Cruz precincts, but will gain a larger portion of Tucson.

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 01:37:24 AM PDT

  •  What's up with the Hampden Senate District in Mass (0+ / 0-)

    It looks like Melvin Edwards is a progressive challenger to the incumbent Democrat, but can he pull it off?

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