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8:56 AM PT: NY-08: Are Democrats getting worried about the possibility that incendiary NYC City Councilman Charles Barron could actually defeat Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries in the June 26 primary? Well, I'm getting nervous. Why else would Barack Obama, who doesn't endorse in open-seat contests, invite Jeffries to a recent fundraiser in Manhattan—and make sure Jeffries had his photo snapped with the POTUS and Bill Clinton? And why would an unnamed "senior Democratic official" tell BuzzFeed that the President "wished [Jeffries] luck on the race"?

I've brought up Barron's outrageous beliefs a number of times, but I've mostly focused on his foreign policy rantings. What you might not be familiar with is that he's also opposed to same-sex marriage:

"I believe simply in an institution of marriage between a man and a woman. My wife and I believe that. We support every other thing regarding gay rights and we support everything but the marriage thing. We don't want to have people impose their values or beliefs on us and we're not imposing ours on you."
And that's yet another reason to oppose Barron, one which MoveOn cited in their new endorsement of Jeffries. If Barron were to win, I don't think Democrats would even seat him as a member of their caucus. And in the event that he does, I think Democrats and the Working Families Party (which has given its ballot line to Jeffries) needs to prepare for a second battle in November, to help Jeffries, as the WFP candidate, beat Barron.

9:04 AM PT: WI Recall: This seems pretty pointless: GOP state Sen. Van Wangaard, who was defeated by ex-state Sen. John Lehman in their recent recall election battle, is demanding a recount. The official canvas showed Lehman winning by 834 votes, or 1.2%, which might not sound like a lot, but in terms of getting the results altered in a recount, it's an enormous mountain to climb. Since Lehman's victory would shift control of the Senate to Democratic hands, is this merely a delaying tactic to allow Republicans to call a special session and throw up a few last-second legislative roadblocks for Dems? Wanggaard claims that's not going to happen, and I suppose if the GOP wanted to do that, they could have already done so. So if he's telling the truth, then I have no idea what he's hoping to accomplish here.

9:39 AM PT: NY-07: Another NYC endorsement from Barack Obama, this time for Rep. Nydia Velazquez. Unlike Yvette Clarke in NY-09 (whom Obama backed just the other day), Velazquez faces a somewhat legitimate challenge from NYC Councilman Erik Dilan, who just announced a batch of local endorsements of his own. Importanly, Dilan has the support of Brooklyn Democratic chair Vito Lopez, who has long feuded with Velazquez.

9:49 AM PT: SC-07: As we wait the South Carolina Elections Commision's decision on whether to move ahead with a runoff following Tuesday's seriously screwed-up Democratic primary (expected on Friday afternoon), a local attorney has filed a lawsuit insisting that a runoff take place. It's not clear exactly who the plaintiffs are, but it's not the South Carolina Democratic Party, which said it wouldn't sue over the issue.

It's also worth noting that Preston Brittain, who is pushing for a runoff, didn't bother filing a pre-runoff fundraising report with the FEC on Thursday night, something he was obligated to do if, in fact, there were to be a runoff. It would have been wise to do so, just to send a message. Unsurprisingly, the candidate who doesn't want a runoff, Gloria Tinubu, didn't file a report either.

10:07 AM PT: Maps: Here's a very cool interactive map put together by the awesome folks at CUNY's Center for Urban Research. They've resurrected an extensive guide put together by four newspapers (including the New York Times) back in the 1940s which detailed every single neighborhood in the city, with a particular focus on the housing market. There are tons of photos and descriptions of each area, and you can zoom in on any part of town. A really fun blast from the past. In 1943, rents on my block were anywhere from $30 to $49... a MONTH!

10:14 AM PT (David Jarman): WATN?: He's baaaaaaack... and this time, it seems like he isn't biting off more than he can chew. Republican Dino Rossi (who lost two gubernatorial races and one Senate race) is now being talked about for a return trip to the Washington state Senate, where he got his original launching pad. In fact, it'd be his dream job, because he doesn't actually have to run for election -- it'd be as an appointed replacement for the remainder of the year, for Cheryl Pflug, who was Rossi's replacement in 2004 in LD-05 and who just resigned after being appointed to a Gregoire administration job -- and then he won't have to do anything -- since the legislature won't be in session for the rest of the year. (Which leaves his days free for more profit-from-foreclosure seminars.)

10:28 AM PT (James L): NY-13: Back in May, the gonzo (an)nihilists at the Campaign for Primary Accountability promised a wave of spending to wash out veteran Dem Rep. Charlie Rangel in his primary race. (A CPA spokesperson at the time claimed: “It’s safe to say we will be spending in the six-figure range... And we will be using radio, mail, online and targeted ethnic media and direct voter contact to reach the voters that need to be reached.”) Well, they've finally begun their spending spree against Rangel... and the early action is decidedly underwhelming – yesterday, the group filed a whopping $616.99 direct mail expenditure with the FEC. In total, they've spent less than $2500 against Rangel, with most of that money being spent on fundraising e-mails.

10:37 AM PT (David Jarman): California: California's primaries left a bad taste in a lot of Dems' mouths, not just because of the screwup in CA-31 but because the total Dem share of the vote seemed low in a lot of other competitive races. Last week our Steve Singiser pointed out that, based on presidential ballots submitted, Dem turnout seemed very low. And now here's an interesting analysis from National Journal that bolsters that point, but by looking at the 1998 and 2000 elections.

It turns out that in those two cycles, California used a quasi-jungle-style primary where voters could vote for a person from any party (but different from the current system, in that only the top vote-getter of each party advanced). Their analysis finds that in most competitive races, the Dem vote share increased significantly from the primary to the general. (For instance, James Rogan and Brian Bilbray 1.0 performed well in the 2000 primaries, respectively, and then went on to lose in November; and in 1998, the primary showed Bob Dornan would beat Loretta Sanchez in their re-match, which obviously didn't happen in November.) It's worth a full read, not just because it's an interesting slice of history but because it's a rare beast: an article where the Beltway media uses actual data to debunk pro-Republican conventional wisdom.

10:43 AM PT: WI-Sen: Hah! This ought to help burnish Tommy Thompson's conservative credentials. The AP did some sleuthing and discovered that the former Wisconsin governor, whom tea partiers and their ilk have never liked, gave money to two Democrats in 2008: Michigan Sen. Carl Levin and North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue, who was running in a hotly contested open-seat race at the time. A Thompson spokesman said the donations were "small, courtesy contributions to people he worked with as secretary or governor." I'm sure that'll work!

10:52 AM PT (James L): NM-Sen: The Defenders of Wildlife are out with a new ad (available at the link) that paints Republican Heather Wilson as a "Washington insider" and a friend of "lobbyists and corporate polluters". Size of the buy: $261K.

11:59 AM PT: Fundraising: As per usual, we've compiled pre-primary FEC fundraising reports for states which have primaries a week from Tuesday: Colorado, New York, Oklahoma, and Utah. We also have pre-runoff reports for South Carolina. There's a lot to chew over at the link, since the pre-primary reports cover over two months' worth of fundraising—the better part of the quarter. The Salt Lake Tribune has also rounded up numbers from the UT-Sen Republican primary. Sen. Orrin Hatch raised $569K and had $1.9 million left on hand as of June 6, while rival Dan Liljenquist took in $208K and had just $164K in the bank. The piece also explores the wide spending gap between the two men.

12:07 PM PT: CA-52: The DCCC has added San Diego Port Commission Chair Scott Peters to its Red to Blue program, which highlights candidates in top-tier races and offers them special assistance toward winning. Peters narrowly beat out former Assemblywoman Lori Saldaña for the right to take on GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray in November.

1:14 PM PT: NYC City Council: New York holds municipal elections in odd-numbered years, so the NYC City Council hasn't conducted its decennial redistricting yet. It soon will, though: Mayor Mike Bloomberg just named his picks for the city's redistricting panel, while the council itself did so last month. A final map must be submitted by March of next year. So if you're interested in redrawing the Big Apple's councilmanic (yes, that's a word) map, here's a .DRF file of the existing district lines that you can import into Dave's Redistricting App to play around with. (Thanks to CUNY's Steven Romalewski, jeffmd, and twohundertseventy for helping to create this file.)

1:19 PM PT: Nevada: There's not much of political interest in PPP's latest batch of Nevada miscellany, though it's worth pointing out that Democrats lead on the generic legislative ballot by a 43-39 margin. There's also this amusing tidbit:

There's one thing Nevada voters across party lines can agree on: they love them some brothels. 64% think brothels should be legal to only 23% who think they should be illegal. The most striking thing in these numbers is that an equal 66% of Democrats and Republicans each think that brothels should be legal. In late March we found that only 20% of Nevada GOP voters supported gay marriage so that's an interesting take on family values there.

1:31 PM PT: NY-11: Among the many pre-primary FEC reports that were filed on Thursday night was GOP freshman Mike Grimm's. Why pay special attention to his? Because Grimm's managed to rack up an impressive $321K in legal fees thanks to a federal investigation of his shady campaign finance practices. Lucky for Grimm, his law firm, Patton Boggs, is accepting IOUs: The money he owes them is listed on his report under "debts," so he hasn't actually drawn down his considerable $1.2 million cash pile to pay his attorneys. He'll have to someday, though, because they ain't taking this case pro bono.

1:41 PM PT: It also sounds like things got rather testy at a debate on Friday between Hatch and Liljenquist. It's the only debate of the primary, and it took place on radio, so viewers could not see Hatch as he "sometimes flushed red with anger and wrung his hands under the desk as he talked" or Liljenquist as he "often pointed his finger as he aggressively took on his Republican rival." Click through for details on the (rather hostile) words that were actually exchanged between the two.

1:46 PM PT: VA-Gov: In a long-anticipated move that seems almost certain to boost the candidacy of AG Ken Cuccinelli, the Virginia Republican Party formally decided to pick its 2013 gubernatorial nominee via convention rather than through a primary. Cuccinelli, a favorite of movement conservatives, will benefit from a smaller field of play dominated by hardcore activists, though early polling of a hypothetical primary showed him leading Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling. I'm not even sure how Bolling has any shot at the nomination now and I wouldn't be surprised if he gave up. (NB: The GOP will also select LG and AG nominees at the convention.)

1:56 PM PT (David Jarman): Dark money: Despite all the hand-wringing over Citizens United, there's been very little activity actually involving corporations publicly giving money to political campaigns -- probably because of all the trouble Target with its customer base when it was the first to try it in the 2010 election cycle. But now we've gotten a big move on that front: mega-insurer Aetna just got caught giving $7.8 million to two groups that have run millions of dollars worth of political ads for Republican candidates: the Chamber of Commerce and the American Action Network. Or, maybe, this kind of corporate giving happens all the time and we just have no way of knowing it -- AAN is a 501(c)(4), meaning its donors don't need to be disclosed. The only reason this came to light was because of an accidental filing by Aetna.

1:58 PM PT: American Crossroads: We have some details on the size of the buys of American Crossroads' new broad-spectrum attack on several Democratic Senate candidates. In NE-Sen, they're spending $128K; NV-Sen, $167K, and VA-Sen, $358K. And in NM-Sen, they're adding another $119K to their previous buy a week earlier (which was for the same amount), presumably to re-up this positive spot on behalf of Republican Heather Wilson.

2:04 PM PT: ND-Sen: It looks like the Democratic-aligned Majority PAC is increasing their buy in support of this ad they launched hammering GOP Rep. Rick Berg about a week ago. They're throwing another $67K on to the barbie, same as last time.

2:06 PM PT: NY-06: EMILY's List tacks on another $15K in mailers for Assemblywoman Grace Meng in the Democratic primary.

2:10 PM PT: NY-13: The Campaign for Our Future, which is hoping to boost the candidacy of former DNC official Clyde Williams in the Democratic primary, just threw in another $30K on mailers attacking Rep. Charlie Rangel. I have to believe, though, that these flyers will help state Sen. Adriano Espaillat far more than they'll help Williams, since they're focused on dragging down Rangel—and only Espaillat really has the name rec to go toe-to-toe with the incumbent.

2:14 PM PT: OH-Sen: SEIU COPE (thank god they invented acronyms, because that stands for "Service Employees International Union Committee On Political Education") is dropping another $263K, nearly doubling their alread-considerable buy behind this ad hammering Republican Josh Mandel.

2:38 PM PT: NV-Sen: There are four new ads to tell you about in the Nevada Senate race. I really dig the hook in Dem Rep. Shelley Berkley's first spot, which features "weather forecasters" predicting lots of sunshine and high winds in the Silver State—perfect, the narrator points out, to support a clean energy economy (and the jobs that come with it).

The second is a response to the new Crossroads ad which tries to accuse Berkley of ethical violations regarding her successful efforts to keep the state's only kidney transplant center open. Of course, Crossroads doesn't mention those details, but rather selectively cites the original over-heated New York Times piece that set this nonsense in motion and claims she "twisted arms to get federal dollars for her husband's business." In her own spot, Berkley points out that both she and her opponent, Sen. Dean Heller, worked together to protect the center and quotes a Las Vegas Sun editorial that declared that any accusations of a "conflict of interest" were "ridiculous."

Meanwhile, Heller is out with his first ad of the race, a spot in which he touts his plan to force members of Congress to go without pay unless they pass a budget. Heller, who was first elected to the House in 2006, then elevated to the Senate last year, tries to pretend he has some other job, saying: "Congress hasn't passed a budget in over three years. They do a lot of talking, but they haven't done their job in over three years." They?

Finally, the Patriot Majority PAC (a group linked to Sen. Harry Reid) is also up with a new ad, attacking Heller for supporting the Ryan budget plan that would "essentially end Medicare." The ad is backed by a $181K buy and is reportedly airing in Reno.

2:55 PM PT: SC-07: According to local station WLTX, the South Carolina Elections Commission has ruled that there will not be a runoff between Gloria Tinubu and Preston Brittain for the Democratic primary. All we have is a tweet so far, though, so no word yet on any possible further legal action.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Minneaota Amendment (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, JonathanMN, HoosierD42, askew, MichaelNY

    Where the local big companies stand.

     http://www.twincities.com/...

    So far zero big local corporations officially backing it, with two local fortune 500 companies officially opposing it, General Mills and St. Jude Medical.

    If any of the other companies listed comes out in favor of the amendment, it will likely be U.S. Bancorp, and CHS.

    The most likely to come out against it would be Xcel Energy and Medtronic.

    One company that will not be making an endorsement is Best Buy. They caused quite the stir in 2010 by delving into the poltical arena, and are struggling right now. They won't come out on a ledge on either side for this one.

    •  Most companies have domestic partner benefits (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      So there is really no financial interest either way.  If anything marriage equality will make things simpler because they could phase out partner benefits, though I've known some couples who haven't wanted to get married who have opted to become domestic partners for health or dental coverage, so it would still definitely affect folks if companies switched to married partners only.

      29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

      by Marcus Graly on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:25:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Have you heard anything about the voter id (0+ / 0-)

      amendment? It seems like the DFL has mostly ignored it so far but it's really important that we defeat that one too.

      22, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

      by JonathanMN on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:40:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It is polling well (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingTag, JonathanMN, MichaelNY

        I don't see any way to defeat it, to be 100% blunt.

      •  Voter ID ballot measures (6+ / 0-)

        Always poll extremely well. They are pretty much impossible to defeat at the polls.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:57:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What about framing it as effectively ending (0+ / 0-)

          same day registration? That's should poll really well in Minnesota and Maine rejected a ballot measure to repeal their same day registration policy last year 60% to 40%.

          22, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

          by JonathanMN on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:12:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That actually isn't true (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JonathanMN, lordpet8, MichaelNY

            The voter ID amendment is not the Wisconsin one.

            •  Are you sure? (0+ / 0-)

              I read this on Minnesota Progressive Project. http://www.mnprogressiveproject.com/...

              Here are what is misleading:

              The ballot language says all voters would be required to present valid IDS to be able to vote, but not all voters would be required. For example, absentee voters would not be required to present valid IDs.
              The ballot language says that the state would provide free IDs to all eligible voters when the law would only provide IDs to people who don't already have government issued IDs.
              The ballot language only talks about Photo ID being required when the bill would actually institute provisional balloting.

              Here is what the ballot language omits:

              Fails to disclose that it would institute provisional balloting. The next legislature would have to set it up.
              Fails to disclose that only government-issued IDs are valid.
              Fails to disclose that it would end same-day registration

              Emphasis is mine. The ballot question doesn't specifically address same day registration but it seems like it would be affected once implemented.

              22, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

              by JonathanMN on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:55:52 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  and I quote: (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                JonathanMN, MichaelNY

                "shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to require all voters to present valid photo identification to vote and to require the state to provide free identification to eligible voters, effective July 1, 2013?"

                That is get verbatim the constitutional amendment. There is nothing in there that would affect same-day registration beyond requiring an ID to register.

                •  That's the text of the ballot question. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  The text of the ammendment is much longer.

                  https://www.revisor.mn.gov/...

                  The ammendment institutes provisional balloting and Republicans haven't made it clear whether or not unregistered voters even with valid IDs will be able to vote or if they will need to use provisional ballots.

                  http://www.minnpost.com/...

                  Even if you have a valid photo ID on Election Day, if you are not already registered, you will only be allowed to cast a provisional ballot which will not be counted on Election Day. Why? Because the existing system that’s used to provide same day registration would be scrapped, and Republicans haven’t explained what exactly they’re going to replace it with, they promise to work that out after the amendment passes.  Those promises are not encouraging. When Mary Kiffmeyer, the House author of amendment was repeatedly asked whether or not unregistered voters with a valid ID would be allowed to cast a normal rather than a “provisional” ballot on Election Day, she simply would not answer the question.
                  Anyway, it might be a little bit of a stretch since we don't know exactly what Republicans would do if the amendment passes but odds are, they would somehow try to end same-day registration. It must be atleast somewhat valid seeing as how it's part of the new lawsuit trying to change the ballot language.

                  22, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

                  by JonathanMN on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 11:28:03 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  And this diary starts off as... (7+ / 0-)

    the list of original ideas Mitt Romney has put forth for improving the economy?

    36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:17:21 AM PDT

  •  NY-07: Velazquez gets Obama's nod (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Meanwhile, her main primary opponent City Councilmember Erik Dilan gets a sea of local electeds endorsing him.

    http://politicker.com/...

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:58:37 AM PDT

  •  Rass MI: Obama 50-42 (5+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:08:35 AM PDT

  •  NY-8: I do sense there is concern Barron could win (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Nadler and Koch did a presser earlier this week denouncing Barron, which I thought was a sign of him actually having a chance at winning the primary. Jeffries could win as WFP, but it would take a very good campaign for him to do that, since many people may just mark Barron because he is labeled a Democrat on the ballot.

    I think the Dem establishment may have been caught off guard, which is not good at all, since Barron is crazy.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:14:24 AM PDT

    •  I think in a three-way race (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, bythesea, R30A, gabjoh, MichaelNY

      He was viewed as a third wheel. With Towns out, that changed the dynamics considerably. I've been worried about Barron for quite some time, though. I think if he wins the primary, Obama would have to reconsider his policy and endorse Jeffries in November. Otherwise Dems could have a real mess on their hands.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:28:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Barron can certainly win. (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, gabjoh, geoneb, jncca, MichaelNY

      In fact if I was to place a bet on this race I'd bet on Barron.

      Election day is low turnout.  Barron will have the public employee unions and a less establishment more motivated campaign.

      I hope he doesn't because it could spread to other races.  For example in NY-11 I would not be shocked if Grimm tries to make an issue over whether or not Mark Murphy thinks Barron should serve in congress.  I'm sure the Republicans will try to use in the Senate contest.

      The race has already been interjected into is the "Super (orthdodox) Jewish" State Senate district where Democrat Simcha Feldman wants to distance himself from his old friend Charles Barron.

      http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:50:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not that I want to "defend" Felder (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        But the comments about their relationship seem to belong to Barron. I wonder if Felder ever said anything about Barron.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:59:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The only quotes I can find from Felder. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          http://www.nytimes.com/...

          That Mr. Barron generally operates with a healthy dose of self-awareness and sly humor has not been lost on his Council colleagues. Even when they disagree with his positions, which is often, they allow that he is charming, savvy and effective.

          ''I think he's a great advocate on behalf of his community, and I agree with him about certain social service issues -- the need for housing and the need for help for the elderly,'' said Simcha Felder, a councilman from Brooklyn who has developed an easy friendship with Mr. Barron. ''But I have to say that I disagree with everything else.''

          That more or less mirrors what Barron said.  However later in the article he takes a far more critical stab at Barron.  
          Yesterday, for example, Mr. Barron was again at the center of a long, emotional hearing on several resolutions about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, although as is his style, he made only a few pointed comments and then sat calmly as the ensuing disturbance swirled around him.

          But as Mr. Felder -- who represents Midwood, Borough Park and Bensonhurst -- sees it, even if race relations is the most critical issue facing the city, Mr. Barron has reached a crossroads.

          ''He has to decide if he wants to be considered a loner radical in the Council, or if he wants to be someone that people want to work with constructively,'' Mr. Felder said.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 04:24:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  What Barron needs to do (and ASAP) (0+ / 0-)

        is endorse gay marriage, to defuse some of the institutional attacks on him.

        How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | (NJ-05 (2.5 blocks from NJ-09)) | #ows since August | -9, -7.79 | Young, black, nonauthoritarian left.

        by gabjoh on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 02:27:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Actually what he needs to do (7+ / 0-)

          is continue voicing his opposition to marriage equality, so that he doesn't win.

          •  Well, this is "for him to win" (0+ / 0-)

            Relatively indifferent to the results of the primary, though leaning Jeffries to avoid a November battle. Either way, at least Towns won't be congressman anymore.

            Does anyone know if Jeffries got the WFP endorsement before or after Towns announced his retirement? Talked to some activists who work with them (and some to the left of them) at a party a few weeks ago and the reviews were decidedly mixed.

            How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | (NJ-05 (2.5 blocks from NJ-09)) | #ows since August | -9, -7.79 | Young, black, nonauthoritarian left.

            by gabjoh on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 04:41:26 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You're relatively indifferent to whether (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sapelcovits, askew

              a weirdo anti-Semite wins or not? Gee, thanks a lot. I take that personally. Would you feel the same way about some creep who supported right-wing dictators and was racist against African-Americans? That's a pretty precise analogy.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:35:38 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Ah, discussions of race and Israel/Palestine (0+ / 0-)

                My two least favorite topics ever to discuss on DKE. Thought about what I was going to write in response, realized it would take us far out of territory. Be glad to go further in PM or email, but a few points:

                1) Did he say anything beyond the "Israel is the world's biggest terrorist" thing? (It's a statement I disagree with, but I also take a position of intent indifference toward the Israel/Palestine dispute.)

                2) Qaddafi's terrible, and I wouldn't not call him a "right-wing dictator".

                3) I think I had something else to say, but I wanted to post this incomplete rather than not posting it at all.

                How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | (NJ-05 (2.5 blocks from NJ-09)) | #ows since August | -9, -7.79 | Young, black, nonauthoritarian left.

                by gabjoh on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:59:40 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  My response was just eaten (5+ / 0-)

                  I'll try again.

                  He is not merely anti-Israel. And you missed the point of my analogy. Barron's support for Qaddafi is a mirror image of a Republican supporting a crazy right-wing despot.

                  Have a look here:

                  He has also asserted that Blacks, not Jews, are the "real" Semites—a position frequently advanced by anti-Semites in an effort to delegitimize Jews.
                  And here:
                  Reflecting on the 1991 Crown Heights riots, Barron said, “Even when leaders moved in to quell the violence, they never dealt with the perception that Jews get preferential treatment in Crown Heights. They only make up 20 percent of the population, but they’ve always walked these streets as if they owned them, and acted as if they were the only ones that mattered.”
                  Do you think that the lesson of a riot by a lynch mob that yelled "Get the Jews!" and lynched and assaulted people, continuing to act unchecked by the police for 3 days, is that "Jews get preferential treatment in Crown Heights"?

                  You think this is all about Israel and Libya? I don't, and I don't accept toleration for bigotry from any quarter.

                  And by the way, his anti-Israel statements have gone way beyond calling Israel "terrorist," which I wouldn't always disagree with (nor, certainly, would I always disagree with it in regard to the US, either). Some of his anti-Israel statements are so extreme that, especially in combination with anti-Jewish remarks that don't touch on Israel, they support a charge of animus toward Jews:

                  Barron has compared Israel’s handling of the Palestinians in Gaza to concentration camps. Yes, literally:

                      Israel is out of control. They’re off the hook, they’re out of line; and Barack Obama has to stand strong and so do does Hillary Clinton, the secretary of state, to say that this kind of aggressive, terroristic behavior and act of piracy will not be tolerated and the blockade should be lifted immediately, immediately. There’s too many children and women and innocent men of Gaza dying because you’re isolating them and not allowing anything in. It’s like having a concentration death camp. It’s horrible, and the whole world is and should be outraged.

                  For the record, I oppose the blockade on Gaza and consider it inhumane. But it's a far cry from a Nazi death camp. The Israeli government has made things suck for the Palestinians in Gaza, but it has not been trying to murder them all, and everyone who actually examines things knows that. In some other hands, the comment I quoted could be merely hyperbolic, but Barron has exhibited a pattern of anti-Semitic speech.

                  He's also a racist toward white people, generally. He famously said:

                  "You know some days I get so frustrated I just want to go up to the closest white person and say, 'You can't understand this, it's a black thing,' and then slap him, just for my mental health."
                  (I got this from the previously-linked ADL page, but you can find this in many other places.)

                  I think this kind of comment would be OK as a joke by a comedian. It's not OK as a serious or even semi-serious statement by a politician.

                  So go ahead and be "relatively indifferent." I will continue to take offense at your relative indifference. This is personal.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:59:11 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Had a longer response half-written (0+ / 0-)

                    but relying on my dad's computer here (visiting relatives out-of-state) is highly suboptimal.

                    Basically, the first part of what you said is what I was looking for - not what I want to see from a politician.

                    But the reason I'd be relatively slow to abandon him is stuff like this:

                    He promised that if elected, he would turn Gracie Mansion into a homeless shelter and paint the columns of City Hall the colors of African unity: red, green and black.
                    (And about the "white person" thing, certainly not what I'd say, but I view that as a lot more forgivable than the reverse - same with, say, a woman talking about men, or trans people talking about cisgendered ones.)

                    How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | (NJ-05 (2.5 blocks from NJ-09)) | #ows since August | -9, -7.79 | Young, black, nonauthoritarian left.

                    by gabjoh on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 06:34:48 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  it's really great that he cares about the homeless (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      gabjoh, MichaelNY

                      but even the craziest whacko can have at least one good idea (which, in his case, is a completely untenable one). If we nominate him, we're not much better than the Republicans in terms of controlling the crazy.

                      Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                      by sapelcovits on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 07:26:51 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  And that's the thing (0+ / 0-)

                        I want more of the fire in the belly populism stuff. But the downside of that is it's hard to control.

                        Anyway, I've made a small addition to my signature in... commemoration, of sorts.

                        How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | (NJ-05 (2.5 blocks from NJ-09)) | #ows since August | -9, -7.79 | Young, black, nonauthoritarian left. | "Ugh."

                        by gabjoh on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 08:56:46 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  Well, to put that in context (0+ / 0-)

                        Literally the only stuff I've read about him (in the past year or so, at least) is negative stuff linked from here. I am almost certain there's a lot of other good stuff mixed in there, which is what makes it even more disappointing that there's a prohibitive amount of, frankly, shit mixed in.

                        How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | (NJ-05 (2.5 blocks from NJ-09)) | #ows since August | -9, -7.79 | Young, black, nonauthoritarian left. | "Ugh."

                        by gabjoh on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 04:23:53 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  Yeah, I agree with this (0+ / 0-)
                      (And about the "white person" thing, certainly not what I'd say, but I view that as a lot more forgivable than the reverse - same with, say, a woman talking about men, or trans people talking about cisgendered ones.)
                      But it's still not acceptable from a politician. And while anger against "Whitey" has a clear element of fighting the power, anger against Jews - let alone blatant anti-Semitism - has no such clear element except in Israel. I'll grant that Jews in America are more influential than our 2% of the population would warrant. But past experience - most notably, the exclusion of all but a very small number of refugees running for their lives from Nazi occupation - clearly demonstrates that without support from the majority, we will never get anywhere.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Sun Jun 17, 2012 at 02:28:35 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  I also want to say (0+ / 0-)

                      that I appreciate your response.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Sun Jun 17, 2012 at 02:30:32 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

        •  Your liberal do-gooders are already against him. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          So I am not sure those who care enough to make gay marriage a may or break issue would be in his corner no matter what he does.

          It also may help him with white ethnics.  If not making him look less radical at least making Jeffreys look more "radical."

          The rationale behind his candicacy is that he is someone who speaks his mind and is not afraid to speak "truth" to "power."  And will be a loud "fearless" voice who is not afraid to be heard.

          He'll lose that if he starts flipping on hot button issues.

          So actually I'd agree with you.  I hope he does.  For the exact opposite reason.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 03:54:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Gillibrand and MoveOn also (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, lordpet8, MichaelNY

      come out against Barron

      Gillibrand:
      http://www.politico.com/...

      MoveOn:
      http://www.buzzfeed.com/...

      I am getting really worried. I assume they must have some bad polling numbers.

      M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

      by slacks on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:06:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  McCain says Adelson pouring foreign money (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, James Allen, MichaelNY

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:29:41 AM PDT

    •  McCain for Obama? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, MichaelNY

      That would be an absolute riot

      •  No, but give credit where credit is due (10+ / 0-)

        McCain has been a consisent voice on the need to keep big money out of politics.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:41:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Well, as much as McCain hates Obama for . . . (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        . . . beating him, it's also no secret that McCain despises Romney. Remember when he rolled out his obligatory endorsement of Romney on the eve of the New Hampshire primary earlier this year, and McCain kept referring to what "President Obama" would do if elected, obviously misspeaking and meaning to say "Romney" (IIRC, Ann Romney was the one who leaned over and gently told McCain that he was misspeaking). I don't think it was intentional, by any means, but I do think it may have been a Freudian slip!

        I mean, let's face it-- at this point, John McCain just wants everybody to get off his lawn: Obama, Romney, foreign money, and whatever else he gets cranky about!

        29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

        by The Caped Composer on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 01:18:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Wow (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Really big streach for McCain to say that, under his thinking, any person that runs a company that also makes money outside the US and donates to a political group is using "foreign money".

      Come on McCain, you can make better arguments for campaign finance reform than that....

      Age 24, WA-3 (Cowlitz), Republican, Romney Supporter, elected PCO, engaged.

      by KyleinWA on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:45:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Adelson is not just "any person" (0+ / 0-)

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:47:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  He makes a good point (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        While it's not foreign money per se, it just goes to show how Citizens United allows for mysterious money to flow into politics and how easily foreign money could slip in. Unlimited money from special interest (particularly business) is not a good thing.

        26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:37:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But he doesn't use a good example (0+ / 0-)

          He's complaining about an American, who owns a casino in Macau, using money Chinese citizens voluntarily gambled away to donate to an American candidate for office. So, it's dirty money because foreigners gambled it to an American? Huh? Where's the sense in that?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:39:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  McCain (0+ / 0-)

      I sometimes worry that McCain has lost the touch he had so many years ago, but occassionally I still see flickers of hope like this. Oftentimes, I really do feel bad for McCain. I disagree with him on tons of policies, but I think he would be a highly qualified Commander-in-Chief (far moreso than Bush 43 or Romney could ever hope to be), and his campaign was torpedoed by events largely out of his control. People complain a lot about his bitterness, though when you come so close to accomplishing your life's dream only to have it pulled away under your feet at the last second by a guy 25 years your junior, it's understandable. I'm glad Obama won, but I do feel bad for McCain whenever I think about the two together (especially after my experience with losing an important campaign to a person whom I considered less experienced).

      I don't mean to go off-topic, I just see a lot of the stuff about his bitterness and this is how I feel about it. I do feel inclined to believe that Obama never reached out to McCain as he says because it seems to match up with bipartisan commentary from a lot of other Congress members.

      "They don't think it be like it is, but it do." -- Oscar Gamble; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

      by AndySonSon on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 01:44:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's highly erratic, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, MichaelNY

        which I think would make him a pretty lousy Commander in Chief, all things considered. Sure, he got hammered during the campaign by events beyond his control, but he also flailed about in response to them. It brought his temperament into clear view.

        As for Obama not reaching out, I can't imagine that would be true. The man has bent over backwards to work with Republicans. He held a ceremony to honor McCain the night before his inauguration. My sense is that McCain quickly revealed his intentions through his early votes, and Obama knew the relationship wouldn't be an especially constructive one.

        •  What I Mean Is This (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          Obama has stated that he wants more bipartisanship and aisle-crossing in Congress. However, the reports I've heard dictate that Obama doesn't want to talk with members of Congress and only engages with his family and his tight-knit circle in the White House. This doesn't seem to be a partisan charge, and someone also noted a similar charge yesterday about his restrained engagement with the press (though that's more understandable). I think he wants more progress, but he doesn't seem to have the political acumen that someone like Bill Clinton has. He doesn't like small talk or glitzy parties. That's often where the bonds are made between Congressmen. I think President Obama means well. It's just that it takes more personal interaction than what it seems he's offered.

          "They don't think it be like it is, but it do." -- Oscar Gamble; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

          by AndySonSon on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 02:57:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  He's had plenty of communication with (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sapelcovits, askew

            Congressional Republicans, and almost all to naught. Clinton was successful because he took Republicans' ideas on as his own, and they hadn't yet gone into their current "Whatever it is, I'm against it" phase.

            I respect you a lot, but I think your points in this case are not valid at all.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:42:03 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I don't see it... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, sapelcovits, askew

            No amount of extra glad-handing by Obama over the past three-plus years would have made any difference whatsoever. They were hellbent on seeing him fail. Whether or not he's social or chatty is a distraction -- and kind of a convenient excuse for them to use to justify their own obstruction. It wouldn't have made a whit of difference.

    •  It must be such a conflict for him (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sapelcovits, askew

      Who is he more bitter toward, Mitt Romney or President Obama?

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:57:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Wingnut freakout over immigration move (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, lordpet8, DCCyclone, askew, MichaelNY

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:48:24 AM PDT

  •  Don't know if this has been reported here yet (7+ / 0-)

    but in Oregon, a Republican state rep by the name of Matt Wingard has been embroiled in a sex scandal, with accusations of providing alcohol to a minor as well.  Having a previous record of child abuse, he's already somewhat controversial.  He's resigned his leadership position in response to this.

    His 26th district, based in Wilsonville and Sherwood (the southernmost suburbs of Portland, essentially) was shifted from R+3 to R+2 in redistricting, and over the past decade the voter registration has shifted about 10 points towards Democrats.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:10:15 AM PDT

  •  Gr-leg: SYRIZA, ND ads for June 17 election (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    subtitled in english:

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:16:46 AM PDT

    •  Are we supporting PASOK/New Democracy here? (0+ / 0-)

      Or SYRIZA? I haven't had time to follow Greek politics recently.

      •  Syriza for me (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, MetroGnome, MichaelNY, supercereal

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:30:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I support SYRIZA (9+ / 0-)

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:34:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Most of us probably support Syriza (6+ / 0-)

        It essentially boils down to Pasok/ND being pro-austerity with Syriza being anti-austerity while both coalitions are pro-euro.

        Expect the "Very Serious People" in the media to go apeshit though if syriza wins.

        •  A SYRIZA victory would almost certainly lead (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          go a Greek exit though. I really don't see anyway at all the Germans will be willing to give the Greeks hundreds of billion of dollars to run big budget deficits and will probably cut off support (thus necessitating a Euro exit, if SYRIZA wins and repudiates the bailout agreement). Although it might be best for the Greeks to leave the Euro a vote for Syriza is almost certainly a vote for Greek exit from the Euro.

          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 01:57:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'll be honest, my view is selfish (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, KyleinWA, MichaelNY

          I want whatever outcome somehow proves best, or least bad, for our economy.

          No, Greek voters don't and shouldn't give a damn about that!

          But it's the top thing I give a damn about, because I live here and not in Greece!

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:18:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Right. (0+ / 0-)

            Much as I've complained over the media's seeming certainty now that Obama's going to lose, personally in my head I am assuming a worst case scenario for the next few months, if only so that I can be pleasantly surprised rather than unpleasantly surprised:

            Grexit, Eurozone collapse, new global depression, a Romney win. And meanwhile, the Supreme Court throws out the entire ACA.

          •  Amen (0+ / 0-)

            Age 24, WA-3 (Cowlitz), Republican, Romney Supporter, elected PCO, engaged.

            by KyleinWA on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:30:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I get that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            But I can't help sympathizing with people, wherever they are. I'm a social democrat, and whether I'm wise or not to do so (not that it matters), I'm rooting for Syriza.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 11:01:30 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm not rooting against Syriza (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I'm not rooting for anyone in particular because I think it's actually very fuzzy on what outcome is best for us.  Dominant parties and coalitions tend to be pragmatic in power, and so I don't take campaign promises to the bank if fulfilling those promises could produce consequences unfavorable to the ruling government in a later election.

              So are the Greek electorate's current demands really things that if fulfulled would set in motion events that would leave them worse off later, thus making them turn against the very elected officials they last voted in?  If that's what the victorious governing coalition decides, then they might scuttle their own promises.

              This is why, while I want whatever is best for America, I don't assume that translates into supporting or opposing anyone in particular...except, of course, opposing the neo-Nazis.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 07:13:02 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  From a US standpoint... (5+ / 0-)

        ... I'd prefer a pro-bailout faction wins, at least allowing Europe to muddle through until the election.

        That said, were I Greek I'd probably prefer Syriza. I think that Greece ultimately needs to either get more favorable bailout terms or, more likely, leave the Euro.

        The problem of course is that it's a choice between two bad options. Leaving the Euro is probably the only way for Greece to restore its economy to health in the medium term, but in the short run it'll probably make things worse. Even leaving aside the possibility that a Greek exit leads to a wider Eurozone crisis – the scariest possibility from a US standpoint – leaving the Euro means that Greece's borrowing costs would surge and they'd lose access to bailout funds. That means that they'd have even harsher austerity in the short term, until their currency stabilizes.  

        •  Definitely agree SYRIZA is bad for Obama and (4+ / 0-)

          the US economy in the short run because a victory by them accelerates the Euro crisis and moves toward guaranteeing a double-dip recession in the US (and hence President Romney) whereas a ND victory will aid in the continual can-kicking that they've been doing over there and perhaps allow the day of reckoning to come after the election.

          That being said, I do agree that the Greeks are probably better off leaving the Euro than staying in and I would be quite conflicted if I were actually voting in this election as a Greek.

          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 01:53:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Guaranteeing a double-dip recession? (0+ / 0-)

            You think a Greek exit from the Euro guarantees a double-dip recession and Romney victory in the US? It would be that bad?

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:48:33 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't think anyone knows (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              If the damage is contained to Greece, probably not. If the whole Eurozone unravels, however, the situation is a lot riskier.

              The US economy is stronger now than it was the past two years, so it's not a guarantee that we'd fall back into recession. But it could, and even if it doesn't growth could still stall.

    •  More ads, PASOK, and another ND ad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:36:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY 13 Debate: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://www.ny1.com/...

    I don't think Adriano Espaillat did a good job in this debate. He spent too much time talking about Rangel and didn't really seem to have ideas of his own.

    M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

    by slacks on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:25:30 AM PDT

  •  Gr-leg: Golden Dawn spokesman loses it (12+ / 0-)

    assaults SYRIZA, KKE candidates live on television:

    Golden Dawn spokesperson Ilias Kasidiaris threw water on SYRIZA MP Rena Dourou and physically assaulted KKE's Liana Kanelli, hitting her three times in the face before fleeing from the set.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:47:18 AM PDT

  •  Gr-leg: Independent Greeks unilaterally reject (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, redrelic17, gabjoh, MichaelNY

    the possibility of joining a coalition with PASOK or ND, willing to work with SYRIZA: Link

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 11:14:11 AM PDT

  •  NC-Gov Perdue is really really unpopular (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, jj32, MichaelNY

    Per PPP
    Gov. Perdue (-29):
    Approval 30
    Disapproval 59

    That makes her the most unpopular governor in the country of the 40 governors that PPP has polled, the firm said. That may also explain why the Republicans are doing their best to try Democratic candidate Walter Dalton to Perdue.

    But before Republicans get feeling too smug, it should be noted that as unpopular as Perdue is, the Republican legislature is not far behind.

    http://projects.newsobserver.com/...

    NC Legislature (-27)
    Approval 23
    Disapproval 50

    Despite those numbers for the legislature, which has a veto-proof GOP majority in the Senate and is just a couple votes short of one in the House,
     

    Asked if the the election were held today who they would vote for, 45 percent said they would vote Republican, 41 percent said they would vote Democrat, and 14 percent said they were uncertain.
    Democrats clearly need to remind voters who is running the show in the NC General Assembly.
  •  PPP Nevada Miscellany (9+ / 0-)

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    Generic ballot in the state is D+4.

    Voters think brothels should be legal by a huge 64-23 spread.

  •  So that reporter who interrupted Obama (12+ / 0-)

    Tom Jensen tweeted he instantly knew it was Neil Munro of the Daily Caller, because he is the most unprofessional reporters he has ever talked to and that PPP decided to stop talking to DC after the incident.

    BTW, this is apparently a first: President being interrupted while making a statement.

  •  Clintonista Criticism. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, SLDemocrat, bythesea, gabjoh

     This criticism really only makes me like Obama more. It seems that they want the DLC, make nice with Republicans strategy back in force. After the debacle over the debt limit, Obama wisely moved away from that strategy.
      This criticism is a powerful reminder to me of what kind of president we could have had, instead of Obama. If there is something I want back from the '90s it would be grunge music, not the politics.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 12:15:46 PM PDT

  •  Utah's GOP Attorney General supports (7+ / 0-)

    Obama's move on immigration.

    Romney still silent so far.

    link

    •  I will add, on substance and politics, I think (3+ / 0-)

      it was a good move by Obama. Politically, it forces Romney to choose between the base/advisers like Kris Kobach and trying to get the Hispanic votes and satisfy "moderate" Republicans who support comprehensive reform.

      If he supports Obama, he looks like a follower and he angers the base. If he disagrees with the action, it wont help him with Hispanics.

      Being Romney, I assume he will try to have it both ways somehow, but he just doesnt have the political skills to pull that off.

      •  He says he wants a long-term solution (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        And that Obama doing this makes that more difficult. Praises Rubio.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 03:16:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Interesting (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Not sure why it makes it more difficult.

          I think he will have to get more specific on this stuff. Kobach called the president's move illegal, and Steve King says he will sue. This move essentially lines up with what Rubio was proposing, or apparently proposing(I dont think he ever submitted any legislation or even wrote anything on paper, but maybe I'm wrong).

          The only other long term solution proposed, is a real DREAM act, and Romney has vowed to veto that.

          •  Not worth parsing his meaning, he's just... (6+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf, jj32, KingofSpades, bfen, MichaelNY, askew

            ...trying to posture politically in whatever way he impulsively thinks can keep him out of a jam.

            This is the sort of thing where Obama just wins all over the place, but the political media only halfway recognizes it.  Anytime Obama can effect a real policy change, it demonstrates the power of incumbency and steps all over the hapless challenger.

            So now Mitt is just totally caught off-guard and struggling to figure out how to respond.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:03:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Right, it's Mitt (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          we forget that he has another option, "to obfuscate".

          How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | (NJ-05 (2.5 blocks from NJ-09)) | #ows since August | -9, -7.79 | Young, black, nonauthoritarian left.

          by gabjoh on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 04:49:55 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I know how this will sound (0+ / 0-)

        But as in the case of some of his moves on behalf of gay rights, I wonder why he waited so long. It's the right thing to do, but the timing seems related to the campaign.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:01:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Quibble on NM-Sen Ad (0+ / 0-)

    While I like the spot and it's nice that they included a family that could be seen as Hispanic, the house(s) in the end are definitely not New Mexican (and most likely filmed in VA or MD). While I like the content of the ad, the end shot may scream something that we're attacking Wilson on. Luckily it's not tied to the Heinrich campaign.

    Born, raised, and currently resides in CA-52. Worked/studied/have also lived in: CA-45, DC, MD-06, MD-07, NM-01, VA-08

    by uci4equality on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 01:13:11 PM PDT

  •  VA-GOV: GOP will do convention, not primary (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Bharat, LordMike, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    https://twitter.com/...

    Big boost to Cuccinelli, since conventions are dominated by conservative activists.  

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 01:17:26 PM PDT

    •  Potential boost for Dems, as well (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike, MichaelNY

      Assuming McDonnell remains an overall asset, it would be easier for Bolling to run as the equivalent of a second term.  Cuccinelli's more high profile, polarizing persona makes that harder, as he's been out front on a lot of issues where his and the GOP's stances don't always play well with the public and that McDonnell would probably prefer to deemphasize.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 01:25:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Bolling might as well run for a third term as LG (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      M Riles, SLDemocrat, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      There's no way he would beat Cuccinelli in a convention.

      •  Can't beat him in a primary, either (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, MichaelNY

        This is a nothingburger because it's not really contested that Cooch would destroy Bolling in a primary.

        There's no system that would pick Bolling over Cooch for the GOP nod.

        Indeed, that's what makes this an easy move for the GOP, because once it became clear Cooch is it no matter what, there ceased to be anything controversial about how they pick him.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:41:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  California... (6+ / 0-)

    The National Journal article is interesting (maybe CA should have the top two primary like back in the late 90’s where the top two from each party advanced)…
    Towards end they say “Again, this is not to say Republicans are without hope in California's swing seats. Both 1998 and 2000 were good years for congressional Democrats nationally, and we don't know yet which way the wind will be blowing in 2012.”  ….  

    However, there’s a good chance that won’t matter; I looked back at 2010 (a very GOP year) in this post a few days ago…
    http://www.dailykos.com/...
    and there was still a substantial shift towards the Dems between primary and general (though they didn’t use top two) – even in 2010.  

    Btw, found this article from a local paper where you can see in map form how turnout compared to partisan voting patterns in the recent CA-31 primary (as you can see, basically all the areas that voted for Aguilar had the lowest turnout):
    http://blogs.pe.com/...

  •  WI-Sen: Where is our Operation Chaos? (5+ / 0-)

    We need to put an Operation Chaos-style plan into action for the primary, since our side is uncontested. We have to keep Thompson from getting the nomination. Any Badgers out there know if such plans are being hatched? I know the primary is a ways off, in September, but the strategy has to be put into place well in advance. Let's do to them what they did to us back in Michigan-Gov in 1998 when they stuck us with Geoffrey Fieger!

    29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

    by The Caped Composer on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 01:23:55 PM PDT

  •  "Steven Romalewski, jeffmd, and twohundertseventy" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    andgarden, DCCyclone

    Quite a lineup.  It's like the DKE/GIS version of The Avengers.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 01:27:39 PM PDT

  •  VA-GOV (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, James Allen, MichaelNY

    GOP voted to change from a primary to a convention. HUGE boost to Cuccinelli.

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 01:36:32 PM PDT

    •  wow, if Obama is re-elected we may be able to (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, Bharat, HoosierD42, askew, MichaelNY

      break tradition.

      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

      by James Allen on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 01:44:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If Warner runs, it's a done deal. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        McAuliffe or Perriello would be dicier, I think Perriello should run for AG so he can run for Gov in 2017

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 04:08:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Perriello not eligible for A-G, IIRC (0+ / 0-)

          McAuliffe would be favored slightly over Cuccinelli.  Also, how did this happen where a convention would happen anyway despite opting for a primary early on?

          "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

          by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 04:12:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Perriello can't run for AG (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, MichaelNY

          All of the speculation I've heard is that if Warner runs for Governor and wins in 2013, he should appoint Tom Perriello to become his successor. I've never heard it discussed that Perriello should run for AG, mostly because he can't run for the office to begin with (though I would love to see him in that capacity, no doubt). I think it'd be a great move in political terms to get Warner to run for Governor, but I'm worried that Bob McDonnell might try to run for Senate in 2014 with little else to do at that point. If Warner is still in that seat, I remember PPP showing Warner winning by 51-40, or something along those lines. I'm worried that a Perriello-McDonnell could endanger our chances of holding the seat, but luckily I don't have to call the shots on all of this, so I just look forward to seeing how everything plays out.

          "They don't think it be like it is, but it do." -- Oscar Gamble; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

          by AndySonSon on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 05:08:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I'm not sure that's true (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Cooch has been so dominating polling in primary ballot tests that I don't think it matters.

      Of course, since it doesn't matter, the GOP can get away with this, since they can argue just that point.

      But I don't see a boost at all to Cooch, he'd crush Bolling in any system.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:33:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What will Bolling do? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Will he be a chicken and run for LG again?

        "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:24:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He's not planning it, but... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          ...it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up doing that.

          And it wouldn't surprise me if he dropped out and didn't run for anything, because he doesn't want to be anything but Governor and he decides he has no path to victory.

          But I think the most likely scenario is he says "fuck it, I'm running for Governor and giving it my best, because that's what I always wanted."

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 08:50:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  IL-12: Ann Callis was the featured speaker (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades, James Allen, MichaelNY

    at the dinner celebrating Congressmen Costello's career.

    http://www.facebook.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 01:51:00 PM PDT

  •  This story wont get a lot of attention (8+ / 0-)

    but it could be important in the election.

    WTO backs U.S. in case against China duties on steel

    Both US companies involved here are in swing states, one in PA, the other in OH. China is a big focus of Romney's economic policies; he says he will be stronger in dealing with the country than Obama has. I believe one of his "Day One" actions is to label China a "currency manipulator."

    The case above rebuts the notion that Obama has been weak in his dealings with China, and hopefully, it becomes a line in his stump speech/ his response to Romney on this issue. It might help Obama make the nuanced case that he has been tough on China, but, unlike Romney, would not take actions that could spark a trade war and end up hurting American businesses.

  •  Made a $50 donation to Baldwin today. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, redrelic17

    Not that mine or anyone else's support on here is the reason why she is the presumptive nominee.... But hey, it's our "fault" for a shitty Rassmussen poll.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 02:22:40 PM PDT

    •  Those naysayers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ndrwmls10

      will end up eating their words. :)

      PS. But see how effective Rasmussen is at driving a narrative? Even here.

    •  Criticism (9+ / 0-)

      I just can't believe the criticism that Baldwin was getting in here yesterday. This is a woman who is leaving her unbelievably safe House seat to take a shot at a swingy Senate seat, much like Shelley Berkley in Nevada. She raised $2 million in the first quarter, nearly more than all the other candidates combined. All other polling has shown her doing well even against Tommy Thompson. She's in this race to win, and she'll clearly do whatever she has to do to accomplish that goal.

      And because of one embarrassingly laughable poll by Scott Rasmussen of all people, everyone in here was ready to write her candidacy off. I recall one person saying she was the worst candidate we have in a seat currently held by Democrats. This is such an unfair analysis. I definitely believe Thompson performs the best against her, and I could see him maybe leading by a few points (though within the margin of error). But the notions that Baldwin is an awful candidate and that this Rasmussen poll has any credibility whatsoever is just saddening to me.

      "They don't think it be like it is, but it do." -- Oscar Gamble; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

      by AndySonSon on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 03:15:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  okay (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

        how would you rank our candidates in Dem held seats?

        I'd say the worst are:

        Kerrey
        Baldwin
        McCaskill
        Heitkamp
        Tester

        This is in terms of what percent of the vote they'll get in the 2012 elections.

        I think it's pretty tough to argue Baldwin isn't in the bottom two.
        She's also underperformed in every election, underperforming Feingold in 2010 while Feingold was facing a weaker opponent than she herself will face in a district that knows her best.

        Don't get me wrong, she's exactly the type of person I wish we could have 60 of in the Senate, an intelligent progressive voice.  But Wisconsin is quite rural (an area she underperforms in, including an embarrassingly narrow win in 2000), and one needs to win many rural counties to win the state, even with huge Madison margins, which she should get.

        She's not awful, and Rasmussen's far off, but this race against Thompson is Tilt R, and I think this is our likeliest loss after Nebraska if he's the nominee.

        19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

        by jncca on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 04:00:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  what I meant with the first part (0+ / 0-)

          is that "this is in terms of what percent of the vote they'll get in the 2012 elections as opposed to their state's lean"

          And yes, I think Kerrey will get under 40% at this point.

          19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

          by jncca on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 04:03:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Heidi Heitkamp (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf, gabjoh, SLDemocrat, askew

          is hardly one of our worst candidates in a Dem-held seat.  Considering how heavily Republican North Dakota usually is, the fact that she's highly competitive as of now makes her perhaps one of the best.

          Maybe you meant the likeliest to lose, which would be more believeable (though I'd disagree with some of your choices.)  But your description sounds like a criticism of the candidates themselves.

          36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 04:11:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, I kinda screwed up (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SLDemocrat, MichaelNY

            I mixed my opinions of how good they are relative to the state with how good overall.

            So, with regards to over or underperforming.

            Above Average:
            Tester
            Heitkamp (in that order)

            Average:
            McCaskill
            Kerrey (in that order)

            Below Average:
            Baldwin.

            So yeah, she's actually the worst, and probably the only one who does worse than her state's PVI suggests, although Kerrey might.

            19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

            by jncca on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 04:46:51 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's also to remember that incumbency plays (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca, SLDemocrat, MichaelNY

              a huge role, otherwise we'd easily have Elizabeth Warren as the worst underperformer.  I think I'd even place Heitkamp above Tester given that, but then again Denny Rehberg is a much stronger opponent than Rick Berg.

              •  fair point (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SLDemocrat, Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

                McCaskill may be as bad as Baldwin, and Heitkamp may be the best, although unlike the others I've never watched her campaign.  But it's tough to spin Baldwin as anything above average, and it's still pretty tough to call her average.

                19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

                by jncca on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 05:21:28 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  Comparisons (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I don't think it's fair to look at this through the paradigm of candidate quality. They are all very good Senate candidates and you can't truly quantify that. Furthermore, all of these races (aside from maybe Nebraska) are likely to be determined within a five point range, so it's difficult to quantify beyond that five months out from the election.

          I think it can certainly be argued that, at minimum, Kerrey has the toughest road to election and that McCaskill takes the second spot. Kerrey is pretty straightforward to understand. McCaskill is, without a doubt, our most endangered incumbent, and her re-election prospects have grown dimmer as this election cycle has gone on. In almost every poll, McCaskill has been mired with negative approval ratings. PPP's last poll found her underwater with 40-50 approval numbers. In contrast, PPP found Baldwin with 31-31 approval numbers, showing that Baldwin is doing fine with approval and that she still has plenty of room to grow, unlike Kerrey and McCaskill. Furthermore, McCaskill is stuck in the low 40s when put in head-to-heads against three flawed opponents with much lower name recognition. These numbers dictate that McCaskill is in deep trouble and that it's quite likely she could be taken out of office regardless of her opponent. Baldwin is not in a similar situation, having reasonable approval numbers and plenty of room to grow.

          Heitkamp and Tester have astounding approval ratings, but when you're a Democrat living in an R+10/R+7 state, you have to have great appeal and crossover numbers to survive. Baldwin doesn't need crossover appeal to Republicans in Wisconsin; she merely has to lock up her Democratic base (which shouldn't be a problem with her progressive credentials) and win big with independent voters (which we can definitely pull off if we exploit the unpopularity of Republican policies, especially against a candidate like Neumann or Fitzgerald).

          I mentioned it above, but to close, I'll bring it up again. In PPP's last poll of the race, they found Baldwin with 31-31 approval numbers and Thompson with 41-42 approval numbers. Baldwin was also leading him in that poll 46-45. We definitely need a new poll to see any changes that might have occurred within the state, but Baldwin still has room to grow in her numbers, whereas Thompson doesn't have that luxury to the same extent. Thompson was also taking 14% of Obama voters in that poll, so if we can get President Obama to make a joint appearance or two with Baldwin, and once we get closer to the election, I imagine those voters will peel off in our favor. I see absolutely no reason to believe why this race will be determined outside of a five point range either way against Thompson.

          "They don't think it be like it is, but it do." -- Oscar Gamble; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

          by AndySonSon on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 04:57:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  She actually did over-perform (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, bfen, MichaelNY

          Obama and Kerry, but that's not thing special for a safe-seat incumbent--I would argue she, uh, under-performed in how little she over-performed, though.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:33:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Baldwin (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SLDemocrat, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, bfen

        Though your post seems to hint at the fact that the Baldwin criticism from yesterday is personal, it really isn't. I wish we could have more people like her in the Senate. I'm going to donate to every Democrat running for Senate this year in a competitive district.

        As jncca explains below, she's not a particularly good candidate. She routinely underperforms even in her safe House district. Let's be honest...outside of Bob Kerrey, who is the weakest Democrat running for a seat currently held by our party?

        You claim that she is doing well against Thompson in your first paragraph (which you proceed to contradict in your second paragraph). PPP's last poll had Thompson leading by 5; Neumann leading by 4 and Hovde leading by 4. All these numbers are outside the margin of error, FWIW.

        What about other pollsters? Marquette had Thompson leading by 6, outside of the margin of error. This poll is from way back in February, but it did show Baldwin on top of the other Republicans (this was an RV poll; PPP's was a likely voter poll). Whatever the case, I wouldn't be surprised to see Baldwin do about 5-7 points worse than Obama in the fall facing Thompson and 2-4 facing the other Republicans.

        •  Just wanted to clear one other thing up (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SLDemocrat, MichaelNY

          As of right now, this is where things are. They can change, but as of now, her candidacy is weak.

        •  Response (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I don't believe the Baldwin criticism is meant to be personal. However, I believe people are overstating the impact of her sexual orientation on the viability of her candidacy. While it might hurt us on the margins, if someone is going to be voting against her because of her sexual orientation, that bigoted voting pattern indicates that such a voter would probably be voting against her anyway by virtue of being a Democrat. Furthermore, as I noted above, she was able to raise $2 million in Q1, more than all of the Republican candidates combined. Much of this was also during the height of the recall election, so the fact that she raised so much despite the state's circumstances speaks to her candidate quality. In contrast, Thompson only raised $660,000 in the same amount of time.

          As I noted in my post above, Claire McCaskill is in a far more precarious position than Tammy Baldwin. She's not in quite the position that Ben Nelson found himself in, but her approval numbers are getting near that range.

          I was saying the same thing in both paragraphs, but I said it in different ways, so I'll try to reclarify.  As I noted in an above comment, Baldwin has 31-31 approvals in PPP's last poll as opposed to 41-42 approvals for Thompson. Despite having lower name recognition, she was holding her own against Thompson, narrowly leading 46-45. The same poll showed Baldwin actually beating Thompson among independent voters 47-41. I can see Thompson narrowly leading Baldwin because he has higher name recognition. However, the fact that Baldwin is holding her own (especially among independent voters) despite having lower name recognition against such a major Wisconsin institution speaks to her viability. I hope that clarifies the contradiction.

          I'm not quite sure what PPP poll you're looking at, but I've seen no PPP poll with results like that. The latest PPP poll I can find with US Senate numbers is the one I've been mentioning above, which you can find here.

          Even if Marquette found that result, if 6 points is Thompson's lead, then that nearly lines up with my 5-point philosophy, and it's certainly within range of Baldwin catching up. Judging by all of the negative reaction to Baldwin's candidacy, you would believe that every pollster was showing Thompson up by 16 points rather than just Rasmussen. And again, I believe that if President Obama does some joint appearances with Tammy Baldwin, our base should be solidified and we should be in good shape. As long as we're leading among independent voters, then we should be in good shape.

          "They don't think it be like it is, but it do." -- Oscar Gamble; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

          by AndySonSon on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 05:58:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm talking about the Daily Kos/PPP poll (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, bfen, askew

            See here: http://www.dailykos.com/...

            I don't think anybody should consider Baldwin's sexuality an issue. It may hurt her around the margins, but the real problem is that she's very very liberal, and she's coming from Madison.

            You are right that McCaskill is not doing good in polling. However, I don't think its fair to judge McCaskill and Baldwin on a one to one scale. McCaskill is tied or a few points behind in Missouri, a middle shade of red, and Baldwin is behind in a state that is a middle shade of blue.

          •  I think you rely too much on that poll (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, tietack

            Baldwin was pretty unknown at the time and probably still is. By election day she won't be.

            In that poll she pretty much represented Generic D and since Wisconsin is a D-leaning state, I would expect Generic D to be tied with or leading Thompson.

            However Baldwin is not Generic D, she's worse than Generic D. She has shown that in her past election results where she underperformed what you would expect. Those election results are better to use for analysis than that poll from February because the voters knew her (presumably) and were more like the voters will be in November. So I don't have a lot of confidence. Tilt R for me. (Lean R against Thompson, Tossup against others).

        •  Ignoring the rest of your argument (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCal, MichaelNY

          I just wanted to address this and correct it since it's a very common mistake:

          PPP's last poll had Thompson leading by 5; Neumann leading by 4 and Hovde leading by 4. All these numbers are outside the margin of error, FWIW.
          Margin of Error applies to both candidates, so if the MoE were 3.5% then to be "leading outside the MoE" would require a lead greater than 7%.

          That of course doesn't mean a lean within the margin of error is a "statistical tie" or even that a lead of 1% is worthless, just that it can't be predicted with 95% confidence.  If we only viewed polls as meaningful if the spread was greater than the margin of error then most polls we actually treat as useful would be useless.

      •  I didn't think Baldwin was a poor candidate... (6+ / 0-)

        ...until I started looking into her previous campaigns, and then I noticed that the last time she had a really-contested election (as far as I know) she basically got 85% of Al Gore's vote.  She raised a lot of money then, too--out-spending her opponent three-to-one--and she still only won by 2.8 points.  

        Nor has she had particularly impressive re-elections since then, when her biggest opponent has been some self-funder named David Magnum.  (Actually, it's possible his spending had something to do with her relatively unimpressive 2004 performance relative to Kerry--I didn't know about that guy until now-but then again she's always seemed to do pretty much the same as the top of the ticket, whoever her opponent was, at least in 2004, 2008, and 2010.)

        Actually, I can't help wondering why Baldwin's been spending so much every cycle.  Compare her spending to, for example, Susan Davis' spending.  Shelly Berkeley's spent a lot too--maybe it's just something aspiring Senate candidates do.

        Anyway, I've been writing about this stuff since last year, not in response to Rasmussen's polls.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:49:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Extremely On Topic: BABKA (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Udestedt, DCCyclone

    Just had some from Whole Foods. From a bakery called "Lilly's." Very good stuff, almost as good as SSP babkas! My tastebuds are dancing. :)

  •  Watching the BBC (6+ / 0-)

    You would think the president's immigration move was a bold piece of leadership that puts Republicans and Romney in a very difficult position. I now expect the usual suspects in his own party and in the Congress to undermine him at the earliest opportunity. Closing Guantanamo all over again I reckon.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 02:41:39 PM PDT

    •  Eh, I don't know about that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, askew

      I think it does put Romney in a tight spot, because it pretty much strangles Sen. Rubio's "DREAM Act alternative" in its crib. And with the Blue Dogs decimated, I'm not sure the Democrats have enough conservatives in the caucus to cut the president's legs out from under him on this.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:19:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe it might (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        influence voters in Maryland, where a state version of the DREAM act is on the ballot?  I wondered that since marriage equality is also on the ballot, and polling after Obama endorsed it showed a significant shift in favor.

        Obama's likely big win in the state, regardless of the national result, shows that at least it probably won't hurt.

        36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:27:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  SC commission decides Tinubu won (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 02:50:20 PM PDT

  •  Another candidate or Vi Simpson's Senate seat (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, ndrwmls10

    http://indianapublicmedia.org/...

    Monroe County Assessor Judy Sharp is also seeking the Dem nomination Vi Simpson's Senate seat. She joins Monroe County Commissioner Mark Stoops. St. Rep. Peggy Welch may jump in too, but she is likely too conservative for SD-40. There may still be other candidates in this race as well.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 02:59:04 PM PDT

    •  It should be State Rep. Matt Pierce (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      or Bloomington City Council VP Susan Sandberg, imo.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 04:10:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  what congressman or senators in your opinion (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, bfen

    have suffered from what I call a midcareer crisis, similar to a midlife crisis?

    I have a few Almanacs at home. In one of the earlier almanacs for instance, Bill Proxmire of Wisconsin was seen as one of the leading leftist voices in the senate. By the 80s, Proxmire was seen as sort of an idiosyncratic type of congressman who had high ratings from the National Taxpayers Union.

    A few others I might add would be John Anderson of Illinois and John Buchanan of Alabama. They both started out their careers as freepers essentially and by the time they left office in the early 80s, they had turned into something of a RINO.

    also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 03:03:20 PM PDT

    •  Zell Miller is the Obvious One..... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, bfen, MichaelNY

      ......and Joe Lieberman has moved right on effectively every issue after his "with us on every issue but the war" posture.

      but two other politicians come to mind in the opposite direction.  Robert Byrd went from one of the most conservative Democrats in the country to a leading Iraq war critic and even a critic of the coal industry in his final years.  There's no way the Robert Byrd of 1975 would have voted for the PPACA, for example.  Also, Bruce Bartlett, Reagan's leading supply-side salesman who now bashes the ideology in every venue he can.

      •  Wasn't Lieberman always rather conservative? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        He ran against Senator Lowell Weicker from the right and got endorsed by the National Review.

        "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:30:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I Had Always Thought He Was..... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          ....but when they made hay of his voting record in 2006, it was well over 90% with his party.  I realize that includes a lot of procedural votes, but I still suspect his voting record with the party fell considerably after 2006.

          •  that's likely true too (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            After he lost the primary and won the general, he probably bore some grudge against the left flank of the party.

            "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

            by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:35:31 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, both of these things are true (0+ / 0-)

            Lieberman was always one of my least-favorite senators, ever since he dragged Lowell Weicker through the mud with the support of the Buckleys.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 11:10:31 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Check this out: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 04:53:22 PM PDT

  •  Ruth Bader Ginsburg pokes fun at (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, itskevin

    healthcare law guessing game.

    Will be interesting to see how people interpret comments, since that's all we can do until the ruling is released. :)

    •  Being slightly pedantic: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

      The court won't "make" their decision in the next couple weeks, they made it immediately after oral arguments. They're going to release it within the next couple weeks.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 06:11:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  At least that was the impression I got (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        From professional court-watchers when the oral arguments were in the news.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 06:17:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  "Professional court-watchers"... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xenocrypt, sawolf, KingofSpades

          ...are about as reliable as a Rasmussen poll.

          I put no stock into Jeff Toobin or anyone else.

          Any smart lawyer knows it's a fool's game to guess an outcome from oral argument.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:25:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The claim has been that this Court (0+ / 0-)

            has tended to make decisions a good deal more similar to their behavior during oral arguments than was true of previous Courts, such that the outcome can in fact very often be predicted, at least to a degree. If you have information to the contrary, I'd like to hear it.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:18:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The "claim" is just that... (0+ / 0-)

              ...a claim.  I haven't seen substantiation that is very reliable.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:21:57 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Where have you been looking? (0+ / 0-)

                I read Scotusblog from time to time and have read other sources but have gotten pretty far behind in my Scotus reading.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 11:12:56 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I read Scotusblog & others periodically and... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  ...think predictions based on oral arguments tend to be weak sauce.

                  They're trying to read into what happens when it's not scientific and they don't have "data" to measure predictability.

                  And much of what's "predictable" comes simply from knowing each Justices' well-known political and legal dispositions, not from watching oral argument.  That's the thing, you can predict what Scalia or Thomas or Breyer or Kagan or others will do in most high-profile cases just from knowing how "partisan" their court votes have been in the past.  Oral argument is not the predictor.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 08:46:42 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  I wrote a diary about that a few months ago (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, askew

              A supposedly impartial judiciary should not work that way.

              Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

              by SaoMagnifico on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:02:25 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  The SCOTUS looked like it was (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, jj32, askew, DCCyclone

              hostile towards Section 5 of the VRA in 2009 during oral arguments, but ultimately voted 8-1 to uphold it.

              The point is that you can never really know.

              "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

              by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:17:56 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  That's true... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        though there are cases where one justice or another changed his/her mind in the last week or two (including Kennedy), after seeing the internal debate play out. So it's possible...

  •  OK HD-01: I noticed this the other day (8+ / 0-)

    State Rep. Curtis McDaniel (D) is running unopposed in the general.  This seat is a Dixiecrat district that makes up almost all of McCurtain County that voted for McCain by a greater than 2:1 ratio.  Republicans picked this up in 2010 with the late Rep. Farley.  McDaniel solidly won a special election early this year by 2:1.

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 05:10:20 PM PDT

    •  Actually, minor geeky correction (0+ / 0-)

      HD-01 as redrawn will take in all of McCurtain County and a southern stretch of Leflore County, stays about the same partisan-wise.

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:19:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  AZ-Senate: Possible indication that (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, CF of Aus

    Democrats really are making a push for the maybe-vulnerable districts?  Martin O'Malley spoke in Arizona about a month ago, and the person who introduced him was apparently "Dr. Janie Hydrick".  (That was actually before my diary!  Annoyed I missed it.)

    I also saw this Tweet from a local Dem group linking to one of CF of Aus' diaries.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:23:06 PM PDT

  •  Fivethirtyeight is doing a state-by-state (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, supercereal

    analysis for all 50 states, including DC.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...

    Pretty interesting. I look forward to when they hit the "swing" states.

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:01:23 PM PDT

  •  SC-07: Things put on ice until next week's hearing (5+ / 0-)

    http://www.midlandsconnect.com/...

    "It is disappointing that the State Election Commission determined that more than 2,300 voters have been told that their vote does not count against the recommendation from the State Attorney General.  We believe that the court will ultimately decide that the votes cast will be counted.  Preston looks forward for a swift resolution of this matter for the benefit of all affected by the SC Election Commission decision."

    A decision has been made but the battle is not over yet. A supporter for Brittain has filed a lawsuit. A judge has ordered election officials not to calculate voting machines for a runoff until next week's hearing.

    emphasis mine

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 11:21:57 PM PDT

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