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Leading Off:

• IN-Sen: His victory came as no surprise, but Richard Mourdock's final margin over Sen. Dick Lugar in the GOP primary was a punishing 61-39—far greater than the 10-point spread we saw in the final poll of the race. Lugar released two separate statements in response to his loss, one positive and the other shockingly negative toward Mourdock. (Both are at the link—scroll down for the second one.) Said Lugar:

If Mr. Mourdock is elected, I want him to be a good Senator. But that will require him to revise his stated goal of bringing more partisanship to Washington. He and I share many positions, but his embrace of an unrelenting partisan mindset is irreconcilable with my philosophy of governance and my experience of what brings results for Hoosiers in the Senate. In effect, what he has promised in this campaign is reflexive votes for a rejectionist orthodoxy and rigid opposition to the actions and proposals of the other party. His answer to the inevitable roadblocks he will encounter in Congress is merely to campaign for more Republicans who embrace the same partisan outlook. He has pledged his support to groups whose prime mission is to cleanse the Republican party of those who stray from orthodoxy as they see it.

This is not conducive to problem solving and governance. And he will find that unless he modifies his approach, he will achieve little as a legislator. Worse, he will help delay solutions that are totally beyond the capacity of partisan majorities to achieve.

Remarkable. As a consequence of Mourdock's win, we at Daily Kos Elections are changing our rating on this race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. While polls have shown Mourdock neck-and-neck with the man who will be his Democratic opponent, Rep. Joe Donnelly, Indiana remains a red state and background factors favor the in-party. But make no mistake: This is a huge headache for national Republicans, and Lugar's departure from the scene will provide a big shot in the arm for Donnelly's campaign. The GOP cannot afford to take this race for granted.

Senate:

MA-Sen: Rasmussen: Elizabeth Warren (D): 45 (46), Scott Brown (R-inc): 45 (45)

NE-Sen: State Sen. Deb Fischer is out with an internal that shows her in second place in the GOP primary, the second poll in as many days to do so. Unlike the previous We Ask America survey, though, Fischer's own numbers (unsurprisingly) show a much closer race with the frontrunner, Jon Bruning, who leads her 30-26, with Don Stenberg back at 18. But note that the poll, from a firm called the Singularis Group, was conducted in a single day, and on a Sunday, no less. Reliable pollsters always try to reach respondents multiple times, especially when calling over the weekend, so this survey should be viewed with a good degree of skepticism.

OH-Sen: Awesome. Gotta love Republican Josh Mandel's decision to stonewall reporters into eternity... about everything:

Mandel also continued his policy of refusing to weigh in on active congressional legislation. A reporter asked where he stood on a bill from Brown and other Senate Democrats that would keep interest rates on federal student loans from doubling and saddling graduates—including young entrepreneurs—with more debt.

Mandel said he was glad "politicians in Washington" were discussing the issue but said he was not involved in the debate and would not "cast imaginary votes."

VA-Sen: Though the Virginia Senate race is approaching the point where you could call it "over-polled," you can't blame the Washington Post for adding to the pile needlessly. It turns out they haven't polled the race in a full year, but guess what? Nothing has changed—nothing at all. Tim Kaine and George Allen are tied at 46 apiece, exactly the same numbers they found in May of 2011.  However, as The Hotline's Sean Sullivan notes, favorability ratings for Kaine have gone sharply south in the interim: They dropped from 57-28 to 41-41, while Allen's fell much less, going from 52-28 to 47-31.

Gubernatorial:

VA-Gov: It's no surprise that former DNC chair and unsuccessful 2009 gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe is planning to run for governor again in 2013, but he's leaving one major out: He says he'll defer to Sen. (and ex-Gov.) Mark Warner if he wants to attempt a return to the governor's mansion, "no ifs, ands, or buts about it."

House:

AZ-04: State House Speaker Andy Tobin, who had flirted with a late entry into the pretty messed-up AZ-04 GOP primary, has decided he won't get in after all. Instead, he'll seek re-election this fall, though after that, he'll be term-limited.

AZ-08: The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC says it's going in big with a $340K buy starting on Friday, attacking Republican nominee Jesse Kelly "using [his] own words." The ad's not available yet, but you've gotta figure they're going to hit Kelly on the same front the DCCC has: for saying that he wants to "eliminate" Medicare and Social Security.

FL-07: Roll Call's Joshua Miller takes a detailed look at the next incumbent-vs.-incumbent matchup on the Republican docket, the fight between veteran John Mica and freshman Sandy Adams in the redrawn 7th District. What's so crazy about this battle is that Mica currently represents a whopping 72% of the constituents in the adjacent 6th, but because his home wound up in the 7th, he chose to run there—even though it meant a war with Adams, and leaving the 6th District open.

But Mica's actually the one with the advantage, thanks to his seniority, his deep political connections, and his vastly bigger warchest. Adams' main asset is her popularity among the tea party set, but I'm skeptical it'll mean much, since it looks like outside groups, such as the Club for Growth, are going to sit this one out. (Indeed, Mica actually has a better CfG lifetime rating than Adams.) Without third-party money, local tea party organizations tend to be disorganized and ineffective, so my feeling is that Mica is the favorite to survive.

MI-03: A major score for ex-state Rep. Steve Pestka: The Michigan Education Association, the state's largest teachers union, just gave him their endorsement. According to Wikipedia, the MEA represents over 157,000 education workers statewide. Pestka faces activist Trevor Thomas in the Democratic primary.

NY-13: The Campaign for Primary Accountability says their newest target is Rep. Charlie Rangel and promises a "six-figure" effort to help state Sen. Adriano Espaillat defeat him in the Democratic primary in June. But press releases cost nothing to send, and we've seen the CPA claim to have their sights on several incumbents they've then gone on to ignore. So let's see if they actually follow through on this one.

NY-21: Good news for Dem Rep. Bill Owens: The Republican lawsuit against the signatures he filed to appear on the Working Families Party line has been withdrawn. That means he'll appear on the ballot under the WFP banner this fall without any further issues.

PA-06: The Democratic veterans group VoteVets is getting behind Manan Trivedi, who served as a combat surgeon in Iraq and is seeking a rematch against GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach this fall. Keegan Gibson notes that VoteVets spent a lot of money in Pennsylvania last cycle, albeit not on the first Gerlach-Trivedi face-off. If that changes this time, that would obviously provide a big boon for Trivedi.

PA-17: PoliticsPA's Keegan Gibson has an extensive post mortem on the PA-17 Democratic primary, where attorney Matt Cartwright knocked off incumbent Rep. Tim Holden a couple of weeks ago. It's a very thorough piece, looking at every aspect of the race, so it's the sort of thing I can't summarize and can only say, "Go read the whole thing."

TX-34: Uh, well, I guess you could call this perseverance:

Hours before a federal grand jury charged Cameron County District Attorney Armando R. Villalobos with racketeering, he said he will not step down from his position nor end his Congressional campaign.
Villalobos has actually been the top fundraiser in the Democratic primary in the new (and heavily blue) 34th, though that's not saying a ton, because the field is split eight ways and with $157K raised so far, he's the only candidate to clear six figures. Since you probably have to regard Villalobos as one of the frontrunners for the nomination, this development seems likely to have a serious impact on the race.

WI-02: Dane County Treasurer Dave Worzala is dropping out of the race to succeed Rep. Tammy Baldwin, leaving two candidates in the Democratic primary: state Reps. Kelda Roys and Marc Pocan. Most of Worzala's funding came in the form of loans he made to his own campaign, so it appeared that he never really caught much traction.

Other Races:

Portland, OR Mayor: Two very different polls have popped up in the last two days in the Portland mayor's race, where two candidates for November's general election to replace the retiring Kyle McLachlan (or Sam Adams, take your pick) will emerge from the primary, with ballots due on May 15. SurveyUSA finds a race that's 28 for Eileen Brady, 27 for Jefferson Smith, and 25 for Charlie Hales, while Elway finds it 29 for Hales, 28 for Smith, and 16 for Brady. (David Jarman)

SC Lege: The Rock Hill Herald has an excellent overview of the fallout over the South Carolina Supreme Court's recent decision that has left nearly 200 candidates disqualified from the state's June 12 primary ballot due to their failure to file financial disclosure documents at the exact same time that they filed their "candidate-intent" paperwork. (In a federal lawsuit challenging the court's ruling, one disqualified candidate is calling the turn of events "one of the strangest cases in the history of American election law." It's hard to disagree!)

One of the weird byproducts of the decision is that, in many cases, individual county parties get to decide who was disqualified—with the predictable result being that some county parties (like the Florence County GOP), are claiming that all of their candidates are qualified, despite objections to the contrary. In short, it's a real mess. However, the state Senate is currently weighing a proposal that would retroactively restore most of the disqualified candidates to the ballot, although such an action would require approval from the federal Department of Justice. (James L)

Grab Bag:

DSCC: The DSCC has now become the third of the big four campaign committees to make large TV reservations, locking down big blocks of airtime in Virginia ($7.4 million), Missouri ($3.5 mil), and Montana ($3.2 mil). The NRSC had previously reserved $25 million worth of ad time and the DCCC $32 million, leaving the NRCC as the only organization without a big reservation so far.

ID/NE/OR Fundraising: Primaries are coming up in three states next week: Idaho, Nebraska, and Oregon. That means, as always, that pre-primary fundraising reports were due at the FEC late last week, covering the period of April 1 through April 25. Every candidate in those three states who filed a fundraising report is listed at the link.

Ad Watch:

• We encountered no fewer than ten new campaign ads yesterday, so we're going to bring them to you all in one spot. All ads are viewable at their respective links. Size of the buy is provided where available.

AZ-Sen: Wealthy Republican businessman (and self-funder) Wil Cardon tries to present himself as a "conservative outsider" who has a record as a job creator. For some reason, his face his half masked in shadow when he addresses the camera.

MO-Sen: Republican John Brunner, another wealthy, self-funding businessman, hits similar themes, though he takes a more negative tack, attacking Barack Obama and Sen. Claire McCaskill over unemployment and the national debt. The ad also features some slightly silly computer-generate numbers which function as a sort of Slinky in Brunner's hands.

NV-Sen: The narrator in Dem Sen. Shelley Berkley's new ad praises her efforts to build a new VA hospital in Nevada. This continues two themes Berkley's hit before, one very direct (that she's a strong supporter of veterans) and one more subtle (that her work to provide Nevada with top-notch healthcare facilities has been a noble effort). That latter is a bit of pushback against some overwrought allegations that Berkley helped save the state's only kidney transplant clinic in order to benefit her husband, a nephrologist. The size of the buy is unclear: It's either "part of a reported $45,000 ad buy that began last week" or part of "another $64,000 worth of air time for the week that begins on Tuesday," or perhaps both.

MT-Gov: Republican Rick Hill has the answers to Montana's job woes: "reduce regulations" and "get government out of the way." He also says he's created jobs but doesn't mention, of course, that he served two terms in Congress. Sometimes watching ten ads in a row is really boring.

WI-Gov: The Greater Wisconsin Fund hits Scott Walker with a montage of news clips about an FBI investigation into alleged improper campaigning on the taxpayer dime by some of his aides. The spot concludes by asking, "How could Walker not know what was happening just a few feet from his own desk?" and even provides a blueprint of what must be the floor-plan of Walker's offices, complete with distance marker.

CA-24: Dem Rep. Lois Capps is out with her first ads of the election, a pair of positive spots. In the first, she mentions her background as a nurse and teacher and says she "stood up for middle class families and voted to crack down on skyrocketing credit card fees and rate increases." In the second, she rattles off a list of towns in the district and says she's looking out for their interests by supporting things like clean energy and financial aid for college.

ND-AL: Republican Kevin Cramer rattles off a litany of conservative agenda items he supports, including the usual (cutting the debt, supporting a "balance" budget amendment), the less common (completing the Keystone XL pipeline, an issue of particular local importance), and the social (he'll "protect life").

NJ-09: Now we're cooking with gas: Rep. Steve Rothman goes hard negative on his Democratic primary opponent, Rep. Bill Pascrell, in his newest ad. The spot compares Pascrell to the likes of Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich on wanting to cut taxes for the rich, saying he "voted with Republicans to slash taxes for billionaires" (referring to a vote to repeal the estate tax in 2000) and "voted with George Bush to bail out Wall Street" (obviously referring to TARP).

OK-02: Republican Markwayne Mullin does something different from all the other GOPers here (thank god): His new spot recounts how he took a small, debt-ridden plumbing company and turned it into an operation that "provides more than 100 jobs" and "operates debt-free." The notion that business loans are somehow fundamentally a bad thing is obviously psychotic, but I'm sure it makes for a good political sound-bite.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed May 09, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Check out the rat tail on Obama's (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, Zack from the SFV

    WV primary opponent.  No wonder so many people voted for him.  Forget that he's in prison, that thing is fucking magnificent!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/...

  •  So are there enough Morlocks in Ind. to elect (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    maryabein, annieli, happymisanthropy

    Mourdock? And as a Morlock it's curious that he opposes evolution.

  •  Final turnout numbers in WI and NC (7+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, James Allen, walja, bear83, askew, geoneb, itskevin

    About 25,000 more Democrats voted in WI, about 40,000 more in NC.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Wed May 09, 2012 at 05:09:51 AM PDT

    •  Not pleased with either of those numbers (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, savvyspy, Christopher Walker

      I have no explanation for Wisconsin other than Walker supporters being fired up as all get out.

      Dems have a big registration advantage in NC, and had the only high profile statewide primary.  But I suspect the gay marriage issue got Christian conservatives out to the polls in disproportional numbers.

      Not seeing a silver lining here.  Somebody please show me one.

      •  Not only the marriage amendment (0+ / 0-)

        But there were several competitive Republican house contests.

        As for WI, while it could have been better, it's better than 60,000 less, which is where it stood with over 60% of the vote in.  

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

        by Paleo on Wed May 09, 2012 at 05:19:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But shouldn't a competitive gubernatorial primary (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          savvyspy

          drown out those Republican House contests?  I agree with you that the Republican House primaries were higher profile and more competitive affairs than their Dem counterparts, but still...

          I'd have to chalk it up to Dems getting their asses kicked on gay marriage.  Cynical, divisive, but effective political move by Republicans to get their voters fired up for November.

      •  North Carolina is no surprise at all (8+ / 0-)

        There were primaries on both sides for downballot state offices and for Congressional seats, and there was nothing to get excited about in the gubernatorial primary...I suspect voters know it doesn't look great for Team Blue with anyone, and neither of the top candidates has a personal following.

        And yes, the fundies were always going to be more motivated.  The groups that are most excitable on gay marriage are fundies on one side and gays and their liberal friends on the other, and in conservative NC the fundies greatly outnumber the gays+liberals.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed May 09, 2012 at 05:23:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The silver lining (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Aquarius40, geoneb, sulthernao

        is that this law will never pass constitutional muster.  At least as I understand it as it takes away rights to ALL people in civil unions.  I predict there will be a violent backlash against it and within a few years NC will go the right way on LGBT rights.  

        As for November, if this is the best the christian Taliban has to offer then they're toast in November.  I suspect there were quite a few Dems who voted for this abomination who will vote for Obama and other Dems in November.  

        I also think that there will be far more fired up progressives come November than the christian Taliban.  The christian Taliban are not fond of RMoney and there won't be a 'Vote against Gays' on the ballot in November to drive them frightened and clutching their pearls to the polls.  On the other hand progressives tend to be lackadaisical when it comes to these mid year votes but once the effects are felt and reality sets in they get fired up and turn out.  I'm talking about the younger crowds who are overwhelmingly for LGBT rights who I would wager didn't turn out like they should have (although that's just my unprofessional uneducated guess).      

        Sometimes people need to be shocked awake.  I think NC just got that shock.  

        As for Wisconsin, I don't know what happened.  Maybe nobody knew about the elections.  Turnout was heavy from the reports I saw so maybe the pro Walker crowd turned out as a show of force.  I think the anti-Walker people need to do a better job in turnout if they want to defeat Walker.  They got under 700,000 votes I believe last night for anyone not named Scott Walker.  They're going to need over 50% more than that if the last governors election is any indication of how many votes they need to win. 1,128,941 to be exact.  

        Now that the Dems are united under one candidate I think the GOTV machine will crank up.  Unions are fully engaged and the Dem party will be as well along with the great people of Wisconsin.  

        The bottom line is we can't give up.  The only way to win is to get involved and try.  You got to be in it to win it as they say.  

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Wed May 09, 2012 at 05:32:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Regarding Obama and gay marriage (8+ / 0-)

    NC is a tossup state, the convention is there, Obama is in it to win it.

    And gay marriage just proved a blowout 22-point loser.

    You can see now why Obama's not been willing to finish"evolving" on the issue quite yet.  He's not going to flip pre-election.  I'm confident he will do so sometime in his second term, but let's be honest, all the polls that say the American public have moved to our side haven't been backed up in an actual referendum.  The one time we thought we would win, in Maine, we still lost.  So don't expect POTUS to go ahead of the curve on this.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed May 09, 2012 at 05:27:25 AM PDT

    •  I feel comfortable having on the record (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      that I've supported marriage equality in Oregon with my own sweat and efforts, but then again, if I run for anything it won't be until 2018.  If I needed to put together a coalition extending from Nevada through Iowa, Ohio, to Virginia and North Carolina, I'd probably be equivocating too.

      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

      by James Allen on Wed May 09, 2012 at 05:42:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This. (0+ / 0-)
        If I needed to put together a coalition extending from Nevada through Iowa, Ohio, to Virginia and North Carolina, I'd probably be equivocating too.

        "Mistress of the Topaz" is now available in paperback! Link here: http://www.double-dragon-ebooks.com/single.php?ISBN=1-55404-900-8

        by Kimball Cross on Wed May 09, 2012 at 08:08:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Will The Press Leave It Alone Though? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag

      Now that Biden let the genie out of the bottle, the media's become obsessed with demanding to know the status of Obama's "evolution" on gay marriage.  Unless a news event changes the subject quickly, I'm expecting a media feeding frenzy on this that is gonna make it extremely hard for Obama to tightrope-walk this until November.

      •  we need to distract them (0+ / 0-)

        www.tapestryofbronze.com

        by chloris creator on Wed May 09, 2012 at 06:48:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yes they will. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        The feeding frenzy dies when they come to accept Obama refuses to hand out any candy.

        And that happens sooner rather than later, because some other bright shiny object will distract them soon enough, followed by another, and then another.

        That's the thing about gay marriage in the latest news cycle, for the political media it's nothing but a news cycle story, a bright shiny object that wiped away the one before it and will be wiped away in turn.

        It might return again, but the NC referendum is what brought it front-and-center now, and there's nothing on the horizon to force its attention again pre-election.

        I really feel for gays and lesbians on this, it really is the public just refusing to fully let go of their prejudices, no different from what happened in struggles for racial and religious and sexual justice in the past.  But in a democracy, overcoming popular will cannot be done by fiat, it takes time.  At least we know on this issue, unlike other causes in the past, that the outcome is inevitable and in our side's favor.  But not yet.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed May 09, 2012 at 07:54:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  There actually has been a subtle shift (0+ / 0-)

      If you notice, Obama no longer says he opposes same-sex marriage. In essence he's gone from saying he "doesn't support" to "doesn't oppose." He largely sidesteps the question, and stresses support for "equal rights."

      Personally I do think he should just come out in favor (yes, even pre-election). But there has been a shift.

    •  famous last words... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, sapelcovits

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

      by jncca on Wed May 09, 2012 at 12:49:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Oregon misc (3+ / 0-)

    I don't know if I mentioned it, but in HD-48, where Jeff Reardon is challenging incumbent Democrat (and conservadem) Mike Schaufler, the Oregonian endorsed Reardon.

    Also, I'd previously reported on HD-52, which includes the farthest eastern areas of Multnomah County, northeastern Clackamas County, and Hood River County.  It was won by Dems in 2008, lost in 2010, kept about D+1 in redistricting.  Well, I'd said that Peter Nordbye seemed like the most serious candidate running, as a former educator and principal at local schools.  I was wrong.  Marv Hollingsworth appears the more credible candidate, as a former legislator, founding member of the board of Mt Hood Community College, past Judge Pro Tem of Gresham and Mult. County, veteran, teacher at David Douglas.  I'm not impressed by his website, but I am by his résumé.

    Also, the Oregonian endorsed Fred Thompson in the Republican primary for OR-05.  As the tea party candidate who lost the primary in 2010, Schrader should be able to easily dispatch Thompson.

    I voted yesterday.  Didn't like to have to make a hard choice for state supreme court, since all three candidates looked qualified and progressive.  Cast a lot of write-in votes for unopposed positions.  Wrote myself in for precinct person when I noticed nobody was running.  I was happy to vote for Obama, Kate Brown, Suzanne Bonamici, and Margaret Dohert (my state rep).  Oh, and Rosenblum for AG.  Holton closed a lot of ground in my mind in the final few weeks, but my union's endorsement of Rosenblum reassured me.  I think Holton probably could have more potential in office beyond just AG, but still think I might prefer Rosenblum.

    Unfortunately, since my girlfriend is moving into Oregon at the end of the month, she's missing both Oregon's primary now and Washington's later in the summer.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Wed May 09, 2012 at 05:38:49 AM PDT

  •  MA-Sen: new Scott Brown ad (0+ / 0-)

    did he tell you how independent he is yet?

    http://www.youtube.com/... (doesn't allow old embed code)

    The buy is for $800K.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Wed May 09, 2012 at 05:45:48 AM PDT

  •  NJ poll: Obama up 50-36 (7+ / 0-)

    800 registered voters.

    http://www.politickernj.com/...

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Wed May 09, 2012 at 05:46:44 AM PDT

    •  time to put this to bed. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, sapelcovits

      Romney won't win it short of a landslide.

      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

      by James Allen on Wed May 09, 2012 at 06:05:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Basically the same as Obama's 2008 margin. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Doesn't help my Obama's-looking-better-in-swing-state-polls-than-in-national-polls-due-to-relative-strength-for-Romney-in-the-northeast theory.

      •  also almost the same as their previous poll (6+ / 0-)

        2 months ago (1 point better for Obama in fact).

        The state polling isn't just showing a solid Obama lead, it's generally showing a very consistent picture over the last few months.

        Yet the RCP national polling average has moved to a virtual tie.

        As you say, Romney has to be doing a lot better somewhere if the national polling average is right, and the Northeast is an obvious candidate for where that "somewhere" is likely to be. Others could be Appalachia and "where there are lots of Mormons". Yet this poll shows only a 2 point shift from the last general election, very similar to the patterns we're seeing in most other states. No sign of a Romney outperformance, and I've only in fact seen a handful of states where polling shows something like a 7 point or more swing (what he should be getting everywhere if he's near tied nationally).

        Extrapolating from the state polling looks very consistently like around Obama +5 to me. For now at least I'm supposing that the national polls are more likely to be in error.

        •  and now Rasmussen shows O +21 in MA (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          10 points better than his poll there a month ago!

          At the same time as his tracker shows Romney +5 nationally.....

          A gap of 21 is still 5 points better than McCain managed, but since Romney was actually governor there I would certainly expect him to get a several points better swing in MA than whatever he manages nationally. If he only gets a swing of 5 then it isn't even going to be close overall.

    •  I don't get it (0+ / 0-)

      Most of the daily poll trackers have Romney up 3-4 points but I can't find a state he needs to win where he's up more than 1. Is Romney winning Kansas and Nebraska something like 97-3 to keep his national numbers afloat??

      •  Gallup is inept. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, askew

        Rasmussen is inept and possibly corrupt.  Focus on the state polling by reputable outfits like PPP, Survey USA, and Quinnipiac.  Secondarily rely on monthly national polling from Pew, ABC, CBS, NBC, Ipsos and a few other reputable sources.  I also try to look at the behavior of the campaigns to determine what's what.  The states targeted in Obama's ad buy the other day were a big giveaway.

        And yes, Romney may be cleaning up in some deep red states, causing closer national polls even though the swing states favor Obama.

      •  I think the short answer is "no" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Davidsfr

        so either the current national polling or the state polling is wrong.

        When I look for states where there's  evidence of Romney running a lot better than 2008 (enough to be tied or in the lead nationally) I come up with the following:

        HI (Obama "only" up +27 compared with +45 in 08)
        VT (O +22.5 on 2-poll average, +37 in 08)
        RI (O +17 on 1 poll taken in Feb 11 by PPP, +28 in 08)
        IL (O +14.3 on 3 polls, +25 in 08)
        CT (O +10.3 on 3 polls, +22 in 08)
        IN (R +9, 1 poll, O +1 in 08)
        ND (R +19 in 1 poll, McCain +9 in 08)
        UT (R +41 on 3 polls, McCain +28 in 08)

        So far so good for Romney, but the trouble is that in most other states he's only running something like 2-5 points better than McCain, and in several he's actually running the same as or worse than McCain in 08, notably:

        NM (O +16 on last 3 polls, +15 in 08)
        OH (O +5, multiple polls, +5 in 08)
        NC  (O +2.4, last 3 polls, +0 in 08)
        SD (R +6, 1 poll from Feb 11, McCain +8 in 08)
        AZ (R +4, 6 poll average, McCain +8 in 08)
        SC (R +7, 5 poll average, McCain +9 in 08)
        TX  (R +7, 5 poll average, McCain +12 in 08)
        TN  (R +5, 3 poll average, McCain +15 in 08)
        KY (R +8, 1 poll, McCain +16 in 08)

        No doubt there are some dodgy polls in the mix on both sides here, but overall it's very clear that the mass of state polling does not make the case for a tied or near-tied race. Obama is not far off his 2008 performance in the majority of states, and even beats it in some (at least as many as those in which Romney is doing enough to make himself competitive nationally).

  •  WI-2: 4 Dems running not 2 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    Mistake above.  After Dave Worzola dropped out there were FOUR Democrats still running for WI-2, not just the two mentioned above.  Matt Silverman, a young, unknown veteran, announced some time ago, and the WisPolitics listed a 4th candidate I had never heard of at all, much less that he is running.  But they listed a Dennis Hall, a "consultant" (for what?) as a fourth announced candidate for the seat.

    link: http://elections.wispolitics.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Wed May 09, 2012 at 05:50:43 AM PDT

  •  Multnomah & Hood River counties, Oregon (6+ / 0-)

    Photobucket

    While I've been compiling this I've been looking over at the population numbers that have been accumulating for the 4 categories with a little interest, qualified by the knowledge that these are really rough, and all areas greater than 60% for one team are given equal value, regardless of if it was 60% or 95%.  Still, I was heartened to see that while Democratic areas were keeping near parity with the Republican leaning areas prior to adding in Multnomah, Multnomah gave Democrats a huge margin over Republicans which is even still an underestimate, since Multnomah gives better margins for Democrats than most of eastern Oregon does for Republicans.  Consider the most Democratic house districts in Portland are D+39, while the most Republican one in eastern Oregon is only R+24, IIRC.

    Anyway, Kerry romped in Multnomah County, winning by solid margins in most of Portland and some other parts, even getting over 60% in a couple Gresham precincts.  Obama, on the other hand, massacred.  He underperformed in a couple precincts in inner Portland, and didn't outperform Kerry as strongly in Gresham as he did nationally, but also got 1,000 more votes out of another inner eastside precinct than Kerry, and in other areas like outer east Portland and much of the rest of East County Obama blew Kerry's numbers away.  Now you might find a number of precincts in Republican areas where a total of <30 voters gives the Republican 90-100% of the vote, but here in Multnomah County you find precincts where several thousands of voters gave Obama over 95%, and the Republican can't compensate for that anywhere in the state.  In the end even in most of outer east Portland the Kerry/Obama average is above 60%.  And since this area is increasingly diverse and integrated into Portland (same with east county in general) it appears that this is a trend that will be confirmed in coming elections, too.  Recall that as SaoMagnifico likes to point out, while Kitzhaber only won by about 25,000 votes statewide, he lost not a single precinct in Portland proper, even in outer east Portland where we depend on pushing poor minority populations to turn in their ballots who tend to have low turnout, and often aren't terribly progressive in the first place.  Of the pink parts of the county, most are rural, only one neighborhood in SE Gresham isn't blue.

    Only one state house district entirely within Multnomah County is held by a Republican.  It is ancestrally Republican, out in Troutdale and other northeastern parts of East County, but we won it in 2008 and it's now going to be about D+7 after redistricting.  We have, IIRC, a cop running for the seat, and I expect him to win.

    In Hood River County (cut off in the post, but you can click to view it), Kerry only lost a couple precincts, one by only 1 vote.  Obama blew them all away.  The whole county is one shade of blue or another, Hood River city itself is dark blue.  It's too bad its ancestrally Republican, since while it's like D+8 or D+9 as a county, we still can't consistently get a Democrat to represent it in the legislature.  We lost both the D+1 house district and what was a pretty even senate district (now will be D+2) in 2010.  Hood River is projected to have big growth in the coming decade, and it has a significant Hispanic population.  It's also the home of Greg Walden.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Wed May 09, 2012 at 06:02:56 AM PDT

  •  Oh, also PDX Mayor (4+ / 0-)

    I think the Elway poll had ballots that were already turned in at 11% Hales, 8% Smith, and 4% Brady.  Looks like late deciders are picking the person who is currently in office, and has the endorsement of their union or something like that.  If those numbers are accurate then, which I don't know, I don't see how Brady can make the runoff.  All her momentum was early in the race, lately its been all Hales or Smith, and for Hales in the final days its been negative.  Smith has been running a solid campaign, on the other hand, and being within 1 point of the lead in both polls, its hard to see him not making the runoff, unless Elway has Hales' numbers right and SUSA has Brady's right.  And if it's Smith versus Brady or Hales in the runoff, I can't see the more charismatic, inspiring, well-connected, young (-ish, haha) Smith losing.

    I met him and a couple other people in a bar while I was in DC, since he was there for a meeting with Obama's people about getting young people involved.  He had a conversation (with others, not me, I am not into this stuff) about what kind of preference one has in terms of the D & D rating (chaotic evil, neutral neutral, etc) for supreme court nominees.  How awesome/nerdy is that?

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Wed May 09, 2012 at 06:21:19 AM PDT

    •  Contrast to the SUSA returned ballot numbers (0+ / 0-)

      Which had Brady leading 36/26/29 (based on 22% of ballots returned so far, so this is not apples to apples vis a vis Elway).

      If Brady is 2nd in the primary, it would certainly be difficult for her to win the runoff, given the amount she has spent so far.

      But if Brady leads after the primary, I think she can pivot as an outsider of sorts, especially if some of Smith/Hales backers support the other. Bud Clark and Tom Potter both won their terms in a similar fashion.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Wed May 09, 2012 at 07:15:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Checkout the scathing letter Lugar (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JNSD

    wrote about this race and how rigid and extreme his oppoents, is who won. WOW!!!! Luagr went on!!!

    •  seems a tad hypocritical (6+ / 0-)

      seems like Lugar has been pretty much in lockstep with his Republican colleagues on taxes, health care,...so is he really this great voice of bipartisanship?

      Obama 2012...going to win it with our support!!!

      by mattinjersey on Wed May 09, 2012 at 06:43:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Correct. These establishment types only bitch (3+ / 0-)

        when they lose their gravy train jobs in Congress.

        "Refuse to believe in the Culture of Fear"-Thievery Corp.

        by A Runner on Wed May 09, 2012 at 06:57:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I frankly don't see his "bipartisanship" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        happymisanthropy, OleHippieChick

        the guy hasn't done anything for the last 6 years except vote in lockstep with his leadership and make noises about being "bipartisan" to make the Village happy.  What's the last cloture vote he actually voted in favor of?

        I think the two of them were peas in a pod, except one was an Indiana idiot and the other a Village idiot.  They both seemed to have the same opinion on "bipartisanship" and it was expressed best by mourdock...

        “I have a mindset that says bipartisanship ought to consist of Democrats coming to the Republican point of view”
        http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

        A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

        by dougymi on Wed May 09, 2012 at 06:57:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That's not really fair -- (7+ / 0-)

        Lugar never claimed to be anything BUT a republican - but he's consistently voted with Dem majorities on immigration and supported the DREAM Act right up until the end.  He voted for both cloture and ultimately for both Sotomayor and Kagan.

        While he voted for DOMA, he was also one of the few Republicans (4 or 5 if memory serves) that voted for the Matthew Shepherd Act.  He voted against the DADT repeal, but has sort of cautiously said he might have been wrong about that vote and would probably vote differently if it came up again.

        He was the first Senate Republican to suggest tossing in the towel on Iraq.

        Not that it's a strict left/right issue -- but it's no accident that the NRA targeted him this time out (he consistently gets the lowest marks among Republicans from it).

        He's always been a supply-sider economically - at minimum, he's been consistent about that - and he's also not a deficit chicken littler.

        Beyond that, though -- it's extraordinarily rare that Lugar has been a voice of discord even when he votes against policy.  

        For example, I never would have expected him to vote for PPACA -- but it should be noted that he was never running around screeching about silly death panels, either.

        Dick Lugar was/is a good man - and while I disagree with him on more than I agree with him about, the Senate will be poorer without him.

        Full Disclosure: I am an unpaid shill for every paranoid delusion that lurks under your bed - but more than willing to cash any checks sent my way

        by zonk on Wed May 09, 2012 at 07:17:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  what about cloture votes? (0+ / 0-)

        I haven't heard anything saying Lugar has parted company with the Republicans on any of the cloture votes that are paralyzing the Senate -- a better litmus test IMO than the substantive ones on whether he's really that independent and compromise-minded.

        The MSM's characterization of him as a liberal-to-moderate Republican may have described him once. But in the past three years, looks to me like he's been part of the obstructionist anti-Obama-at-all-costs campaign.

    •  Wouldn't it be nice (0+ / 0-)

      If he showed some real bipartisanship for the next 8 months?  He has nothing to lose now.

      www.tapestryofbronze.com

      by chloris creator on Wed May 09, 2012 at 07:02:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Riiiiiight Dick Lugar (5+ / 0-)

    Because you never supported all those filibusters, I'm sure. No partisanship for you!

    No one ever created a vibrant economy by building houses for each other. Houses are built because there is a vibrant economy.

    by Doug in SF on Wed May 09, 2012 at 06:42:14 AM PDT

  •  Do we have to settle for a blue-dog? (0+ / 0-)

    I think Lugar was more of a moderate than the self-professed bluedog Donnelly. I hate settling!

    •  bull shit. (18+ / 0-)

      If you look at voting records, there's nothing to back up what you're claiming.  Every Democrat in congress is to the left of every Republican in congress.

      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

      by James Allen on Wed May 09, 2012 at 06:50:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yup (0+ / 0-)

        In fact, if one is to rely on career first-dimension DW-NOMINATE scores (as probably exclusively he/she ought not to do, for the several reasons of which everyone will be aware, but as we may do for our rough purposes here), he/she finds that this has been the case since the close of the 108th Congress (January 2005), which brought the retirement of Zell Miller (than whom Chafee, Specter, and the ladies Maine were reckoned more liberal) and the election of Ralph Hall as a Republican (he switched parties in early 2004, such that one may quarrel with my listing him here; the case is unambiguous, though, for the 107th, when Connie Morella and Ben Gilman were yet in the House and Hall was ever [nominatively] a Democrat).  

        (It should not go unremarked, I imagine, that because one might reasonably propose that far more important than any substantive vote a member might cast is a member's vote on chamber organization [a controversial proposition here, I know, but one to which all come, I think, on mature reflection {a judgment that may follow from my own experience as one who is devoted to the party yet holds certain views that are uncommon in it, or at least in its base}], it may be the case that a small DW-NOMINATE difference might be upset on consideration of, e.g., one's vote for majority leader, but likely that's a slightly different question.)

        Hardcore anarcho-capitalist (PC: 9.00, -7.59, PM: 8.65, -9.48), hardcore Democrat. Russ Feingold devote(e).

        by Jahiegel on Wed May 09, 2012 at 04:50:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  again, how many cloture votes did lugar support? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      He's no more of a moderate than mcconnell.  He just gives a lot of lip service to broder-style "bipartisanship" to make his fellow Villagers happy.

      Maybe he had a few sane bones as far as dealing with the Soviet threat in the 80s, but those days are long gone.  In this century he's been nothing but a wingnut Villager with pretty sounding words.

      A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

      by dougymi on Wed May 09, 2012 at 07:05:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  You'd rather settle for Mourdock? (7+ / 0-)

      It's Indiana. Bernie Sanders could never get elected to anything in Indiana.
      Donnelly voting record here:
      http://votesmart.org/...

      Time to get off your butts, Hoosiers!

    •  Your attitude will result in 60 Republicans (8+ / 0-)

      in the Senate. Settle for that! You have to run more conservative candidates in conservative states if you expect to keep the majority.

    •  This stuff drives me utterly insane (3+ / 0-)

      Richard Lugar was in no way, shape, or form a moderate, and he had a 40 year record to prove it.  What he was was a conservatives, who on certain issues that he really cared about, found a way to work with liberals to get stuff done.

      But the conflation of on the one hand, mindless centrism and, on the other hand,  occasional bipartisanship with moderation is a fundamental failure of our political system that disadvantages progressives. So I hate, hate, hate when we echo this crap.

    •  Even I think you're way off (5+ / 0-)

      Donnelly is far better than Lugar.  Just compare their voting records.

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

      by Paleo on Wed May 09, 2012 at 07:21:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WTF? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, Aquarius40, OleHippieChick
    And he will find that unless he modifies his approach, he will achieve little as a legislator.
    firebaggers could care less about achieving anything other than the destruction of compassion.

    "Refuse to believe in the Culture of Fear"-Thievery Corp.

    by A Runner on Wed May 09, 2012 at 06:52:26 AM PDT

  •  NJ: Rothman runs an attack ad linking Pascrell (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

    to Romney.  Without any factual support.

    http://thehill.com/...

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Wed May 09, 2012 at 06:58:41 AM PDT

    •  Between this and raging against (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      Pascrell like a teabagger because he voted for TARP, I'm beginning to feel very turned off by Rothman's campaign. I wonder if his internals are bad and that's why he's going ultra-negative like this.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed May 09, 2012 at 08:02:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's what I'm guessing (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        New Jersey politics tends to be bare-knuckled and underhanded, but Rep. Rothman has made some truly sleazy attacks. And I don't think he wants Rep. Pascrell going through the skeletons in his closet.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary. Fired up! Ready to go!

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 09, 2012 at 08:07:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Ras Mass: Obama 56-35 (4+ / 0-)

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Wed May 09, 2012 at 07:10:45 AM PDT

    •  10 points better for Obama than Ras's April poll (4+ / 0-)

      For what seems like the thousandth time, a major disconnect between Rasmussen's state polling and his national tracker (once again at a ludicrous Romney +5 today).

      •  It's simple, Rasmussen doesn't do valid polls (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        His "polls" are not statistically valid, and therefore are crapshoots.  Plus he rigs his system to produce GOP-friendly results which is what he wants as part of his agenda.

        The volatility between polls of the same race, e.g., Mass-Prez or FL-Sen, is just symptomatic of an illegitimate system.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed May 09, 2012 at 08:24:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  How is Lugar not a right winger? (0+ / 0-)

    I don't think that Mourdock will be much of a change. Donnelly would be a huge improvement.

    •  More a matter of temperament than voting record (6+ / 0-)

      We used to have moderate and conservative.  Now we have conservative and crazy.

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

      by Paleo on Wed May 09, 2012 at 07:20:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He did (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, bumiputera, itskevin

        have a 40% from NARAL and an F from the NRA -- those aren't the sort of numbers that make me drool as a Democrat, of course, but for a (formerly, I guess) red-state entrenched Republican, they're not bad.

        He also voted for both Sotomayor and Kagan, as well as the DREAM Act.

        I'm not saying he's my dream Senator -- but considering we're never going to have a 100 Democrat Senate (and I'm not sure it would be a good thing if we did), he's pretty close to the best Republican I can think of...

        Full Disclosure: I am an unpaid shill for every paranoid delusion that lurks under your bed - but more than willing to cash any checks sent my way

        by zonk on Wed May 09, 2012 at 07:25:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Even though (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, Boris49, ArkDem14

    I gave up on my insistence that Lugar would survive months ago, it's still a bit shocking to see him go down.

    As a born and raised Hoosier, Lugar was an institution -- and to be honest, he was the last Republican I voted for, nearly 20 years ago.  If he had won the GOP Presidential nomination in 1988, I think there's a decent chance that the GOP looks markedly different today and frankly, at least a slim chance I'm not a dyed in the wool Democrat.

    Yes, he was a Republican and yes, it's not as if Lugar was a toss-up Senate vote.  However, there were plenty of majority-Dem issues on which he was an ally, and what's more important, even when he was on the other side of a vote -- he was never the one to be tossing out silly nonsense and hyperbole.  When he voted the wrong way, I could at least respect his wrong-way vote as an honest disagreement.

    I agree with John Kerry -- the Senate will be poorer without him.  

    Full Disclosure: I am an unpaid shill for every paranoid delusion that lurks under your bed - but more than willing to cash any checks sent my way

    by zonk on Wed May 09, 2012 at 07:22:00 AM PDT

  •  Don't be saying stuff like this: (0+ / 0-)
    Indiana remains a red state
    Obama carried Indiana in 2008 by a full percentage point--more than North Carolina. Indiana has elected Democratic governors and senators in the 20th century, and the Indiana Dems in the legislature staged a heroic walkout to stall an anti-union bill last year.

    Don't cede Indiana. Fight.

  •  Exactly as planned (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    happymisanthropy, OleHippieChick
    And he will find that unless he modifies his approach, he will achieve little as a legislator.
    Tea Party Mission Accomplished!  He will be praised for stopping the Democrat(ic) juggernaut. His supporters won't care about whether he actually does anything worthwhile.

    The Golden Rule isn't so golden if you don't bother polishing it with every soul you meet. (-6.5,-4.1)

    by minidriver on Wed May 09, 2012 at 07:56:32 AM PDT

    •  For them, shutting it all down IS worthwhile (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      happymisanthropy, OleHippieChick

      If your goal is to make the Federal government not function at all, then obstructing absolutely everything is achieving what you want. In other words, these folks are close to Ron Paul territory on whether there is any appropriate role for the Federal government.

      I thought they were only trying to roll back to, say, 1908. Some of them are obviously trying to roll back to 1785, during the Articles of Confederation era when we tried having a very weak national government (and found it didn't work out so well, even then).  

  •  I Wonder If (0+ / 0-)

    a bunch of Indiana Dem voters chose a Republican ballot.  I voted for Mudock because I want to see how batshit crazy people in Indiana vote.  It being an election year, and Obama winning Indiana in 08, I think there will be more Dems showing up this year than in 2010.

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